CITY OF SANTA ROSA:
CITY COUNCIL PRESENTATION
SANTA ROSA, CA OCTOBER 13, 2026
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
[email protected]
1 US Macro Forecast: Business Climate
Data below are from Aug 2026 (Q3 2026), +2.1% Q2 Real GDP Growth since Q2 2025 Bottom Line: 15-20% chance of recession by end of 2027
Based on AI bets, jobs and inflation, midterms watch
Real
GDP (%)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Core PCE
Inflation (%)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2026 2.2 2.1 4.4 4.3 3.3 (2.7 Q1) 3.3
2027 1.9 2.2 4.5 4.3 2.4 2.4
2028 2.2 2.1 4.4 4.2 2.1 2.2
2029 2.3 2.4 4.4 4.3 N/A N/A
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Dec-18
May-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Sep-22
Feb-23
Jul-23
Dec-23
May-24
Oct-24
Mar-25
Aug-25
Jan-26
Jun-26
Number of Workers
Labor Force Employment
3 Residential Labor Force and Employment Levels
January 2016 to June 2026, Seasonally Adjusted
As of June 2026:
Santa Rosa unemployment
rate = 4.9%
Sonoma County = 4.7%
California 5.8%
All elevated from Sept 2025
Source: California EDD
4 Taxable Sales, % Change from Calendar Year Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 (Annualized Totals), Current Dollars, Santa Rosa, Sonoma County otherwise, California, and Comparison Areas
Source: California Dept of Tax and Fee Administration
-0.4%
1.2% 2.1%
9.7%
5.8% 5.6%
2.4%
1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2%
-1.4%
-2.9%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Percentage Change
Housing Markets: Forecast to July 2027, % Change in Median Home Prices, Santa Rosa and Selected Comparison Areas, as of August 2026 5 Source: ZillowTM Research
-1.3% -1.5%
-0.4%
0.6% 0.6%
0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
-0.2%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Forecasted Percentage Change (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Nov-25
Jan-26
Mar-26
May-26
Jul-26
Estimated Percent Occupied (%)
Santa Rosa Sonoma County Napa County SF
Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates, Santa Rosa and Selected Area, July 2020 to July 2026, Monthly, 12-Month Moving Average 6 Source: CoStar
Jobs Forecast to 2030: County Forecast
2026 to 2030, Number of Workers at Local Employers
7 8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 California Workers
Sonoma County Workers
Sonoma County California
Industry hiring projections for
Sonoma County to 2030
(as of Jan 2026):
1. Healthcare +7.4%
2. Hospitality (events (think
Tribal casinos, hotel,
restaurant, employment
services): +4.4%
3. Government (state and local)
4. Construction: +3.6%
Ag: -1.7%
Manufacturing: -4.1%
Retail: -0.4% (flat)
Sources: CA Department of Finance and CalTrans
Santa Rosa: Things to Watch Toward 2027 (For Now)
• Geopolitical issues, gas prices and Santa Rosa: consumer and visitor confidence • Small business pressures exacerbated
• Macroeconomy a mixed bag, how tenuous labor markets are is a rising question • AI just one part of the story: immigration and demographic change also • State budgets and equity markets: probably ok for 2026-27, toward 2030 more concerns
Three key items for Santa Rosa:
• Lower- to middle-income household pressures
• Commercial and housing developers: cost pressures and goals • More competitive downtowns: occupancy rates, foot flow and specific taxable sales 8