Caltrain
Overview and
Budget
South San Francisco City Council
September 9
Caltrain Connects • 77 miles connecting San
Francisco, San Mateo, and
Santa Clara counties
• 31 stations across 20
communities
• Over 160 years of continuous
rail service
• 82% favorability rating voters • 91% favorability with riders 2 Caltrain Recent Awards
• APTA’s Outstanding Public
Transportation System
Achievement (2026)
• APTA Rail Safety Award (2026 & 2025)
• Time 10 Most Influential Transportation
Companies of 2026
• Adwheel Grand Award "Driving is for
Dodgers" Campaign (2026)
3 Caltrain is Part of Everyday Life
• Provides millions of rides
to get people to work,
school, and events
• Reduces traffic on major
highways like US-101
• Connects communities
across the Peninsula
• Supports access to jobs
and opportunities
4 Every Day, Caltrain Provides Regional Benefits
Less Traffic:
• Removes the equivalent of
~3 freeway lanes of traffic
at peak times
• US-101 traffic is 93% of
pre-pandemic levels at rush
hour.
Stronger Economy:
• Corridor economic driver of
the state and country.
• Close to Caltrain increases
property value and local
sales tax
• 37% of Bay Area’s
population, live in the 20
cities served by Caltrain.
Cleaner Air
• Reduces greenhouse gas
emissions with 100%
renewable electric service
• Improves local air quality
and reduces noise
5 6
Caltrain is Supporting Local Economies
• Higher property values near stations
• Increased business activity and office demand
• Supports downtowns and local development
• Contributes to local tax bases across the corridor
Average rent per square foot refers to annual full service gross rents per square foot weighted by the building’s rentable building area.
Source: Costar, 2018; Strategic Economics, 2019.
Partnerships on
Major Initiatives
● Corridor Crossing Strategy
• Website page here
● Transit Oriented Development
● Redwood City Transit District
● Battery Electric Multiple Unit Train
● Diridon Station Business Case
● Portal (SF Downtown Extension)
Innovative, Cost Effective:
Safety Enhancements
Worked with technology providers to improve audio
and visual directions by tracks
7 Improved Service
• Faster: Express and local trains
• More Frequent:
- Every 15-20 mins weekday rush hour
- Every 30 mins, every station, 7 days a week
(compared to once an hour)
- 20% more service (26% equity priority stations)
• Better Experience: Free wi-fi, outlets at every
seat, bathrooms, digital displays, quieter inside
and outside the trains
• On-Time Performance: over 95%
8 9
Growing Ridership
• Since electrification: fastest growing transit system US (APTA); 56% growth in first year since electrification; weekend ridership is the highest ever with over 100% increase since before 2020 • $1 Youth Fare introduced: offering riders under 18 a cost-effective ticket; sold over 500,000 Youth Fares in 2026 • Diversified ridership: 37% low income; 10% youth, seniors, or people with disabilities 9 10
Caltrain Ridership Trends by City
10 Welcome City Partnerships
• Go Pass Program: City benefits economic, parking
and traffic relief, GHG reductions
• Creative partnership: themed trains, Destination Downtown 11 Caltrain Fiscal Outlook and Ridership
1212
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26* FY27*
Average Weekday Ridership
Total FY Ridership
Total Fiscal Year and Average Weekday Ridership (FY19-27) Total Annual Ridership Average Weekday Ridership
Caltrain Ridership Trends
13 Projected FY25 to
FY26: +25% YOY
Total Annual
Ridership
Sources: Caltrain Annual Ridership Reports; Caltrain Fare Media-Based Ridership Estimates. *FY26 and FY27 projected. • Ridership demand continues to grow in response to Caltrain’s electrified service improvements.
Notes: FY19-25 Actuals; FY26-27 revenue is preliminary.
DRAFT
Role of Fares in
Caltrain’s Business
Fares No Longer Cover the Same Share of Costs
• 2019, fare revenue comprised over 70% of operating revenue • Today, while still nation leading, fare revenue accounts for 33% of operating revenue. 14 15
FY26 Budget
FY25 Forecast
Why Does Caltrain Have a $75M Annual Operating Deficit? Commute Patterns
Shifted
Sustained, significant
changes in work patterns
across San Francisco and
Silicon Valley since the
pandemic.
Ridership &
Revenue Less Than
Before
Fewer riders meant lower
fare, parking, rental, and
advertising income.
Costs Rose
With Inflation
Operating costs grew
faster than revenue
across the transit
industry.
Electrification
Raised Fixed Costs
51 miles of new 25KV
electrical infrastructure to
maintain.
Combined result: These factors and the exhaustion of one-time COVID related funding sources have compounded to create a structural operating deficit that cannot be resolved through cuts or self-generated revenue alone.
Cost Containment Strategies
• Strategic hiring freeze
• Comprehensive cost reduction efficiency
program
• FY27: Line by line review, held operator
contract to previous level
• Implemented crew scheduling efficiencies
• Recouping costs for electricity returned to
the grid through regenerative braking
• Develop and evaluate Battery Storage Plan
• MTC study on cost containment showed
$70M in savings over 5 years
16 • Federal Transportation Authority Triannual Review (August 2026) - No findings Non-Fare Revenue Strategies
Exploring new revenue sources
Expand advertising &
media package
train wrapping
naming rights of
rolling stock and
station assets
Advertising and
Naming Rights
Solar farm, energy
storage facility for
traction power and
station energy needs
Solar, Energy
Storage Systems, EV
Charging Leasing
Cell tower leasing,
fiber leasing
Fiber Optic Cable and
Telecommunications
Leasing
Property conveyance
lease
commercial leasing
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD and Commercial
Leasing
Private car
Charter train
Sport events
Special Events
1-2 Year Short Term 2-5 Year Medium Term
17 5+ Year Long Term
Schedule
Continue FY26 Service Levels
Maintain current service level using one-time State Loan funds through FY27.
March 2026:
State Loan
FY2026 FY2028
Continue FY26 Service Levels
Plan and Prepare for Service Cuts Service Cuts
FY2027
June 2026: Caltrain Board
Adopts FY27 Budget and
Framework for No External
Funding Scenario
November 2026:
General Election
Summer 2027: Measure
Funds Flow for FY28
18 Fiscal Year 28+
1919
Current Service vs. Potential Cuts in a No External Funding Scenario Today: Frequent Service 7 days a week Potential Service Cuts (FY28+) Frequent Weekday Service
Trains every 15 minutes peak; every 30 off-peak
Weekend Service
Trains every 30 minutes Saturday and Sunday
Long Hours of Service
Trains from ~5 AM to ~1 AM
Special Event Service
Extra trains support concerts, games and more
Hourly Weekday Service
Once per hour all day
No Weekend Service
All Saturday and Sunday trains eliminated
Early Shutdowns
End operations by 9 PM
No Special Event Service
Eliminate all special event trains
Station Closures
Close more than one-third of all stations. Potential for full-service suspension if no external funding continues.
20 Why Cuts Make the Problem Worse (Downward Spiral)
Cut Service
Reduced frequency
and span of service
delivers most savings.
Fewer Riders
Fewer riders due to
inconvenient service,
reducing ridership by
a projected 60% to
70%
Less Revenue
Less fare, parking,
advertising, leasing
revenue offsets
cost savings
Creates Cycle
Difficult to
Reverse
Deficit persists,
forcing
further reductions
Ridership could decrease significantly,
with losses compounded by other
agencies' contemplated cuts.
1 2 3 4
21 Regional Transit – Connected Implications
• Specific cuts are not certain yet.
• Contemplated cuts to other agencies in
conjunction would increase Caltrain’s
ridership loss.
• If no external funding, passenger service
could stop and focus exclusively on
maintenance and safety of the corridor
and assets.
• Once shut down, minimum 2-4 years to
resume Caltrain passenger service.
22 Critical Inflection Point
No External Funding Scenario
Even Significant Cuts Won't Solve
the Deficit
Cutting service drives away riders,
reducing operating revenue in
a downward spiral, offsetting much
of the savings from cuts. Significant
deficit remains.
Reduce to hourly service
Eliminate weekend service
End service at 9:00 PM
Close ~1/3 of stations
Cut segments of service
Cuts to administrative costs
Eliminate special event service
Suspend all Caltrain service
Ridership & Revenue Are Growing
Caltrain will continue to grow
ridership, generate revenue, and find
cost savings — but growth and cuts
cannot close the gap.
23 Important Crossroads
24 FOR MORE INFORMATION
WWW.CALTRAIN.COM
25