Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Assessed Value of New Development Table D-2
Assessed Value of New Development in Current City Limits a $1,179,618,758 $2,170,065,092 $3,019,643,625 $3,320,572,292 $3,445,572,292 $3,506,962,292 Assessed Value of New Development in Annexation Area b $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $600,390,200 $714,067,000 $714,067,000 $714,067,000 Total Assessed Value c = a + b $1,317,493,758 $2,515,440,092 $3,620,033,825 $4,034,639,292 $4,159,639,292 $4,221,029,292 Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000%
Property Tax Revenue in Current City Limits d = a * 1.00% $11,796,188 $21,700,651 $30,196,436 $33,205,723 $34,455,723 $35,069,623 Property Tax Revenue in Annexation Areas e = b * 1.00% $1,378,750 $3,453,750 $6,003,902 $7,140,670 $7,140,670 $7,140,670 Total Property Tax Revenue f = d + e $13,174,938 $25,154,401 $36,200,338 $40,346,393 $41,596,393 $42,210,293 Estimated Property Tax Allocation
Property Tax Allocation in Current City Limits [1]
City of Manteca General Fund 14.2968% g = d * 14.30% $1,686,477 $3,102,498 $4,317,123 $4,747,355 $4,926,065 $5,013,833 Other Agencies/ERAF 85.7032% h = d * 85.70% $10,109,711 $18,598,153 $25,879,313 $28,458,368 $29,529,658 $30,055,790 Property Tax Allocation in Annexation Areas [2]
City of Manteca General Fund 6.6282% i = e * 6.63% $91,386 $228,921 $397,949 $473,296 $473,296 $473,296 Other Agencies/ERAF 93.3718% j = e * 93.37% $1,287,364 $3,224,829 $5,605,953 $6,667,374 $6,667,374 $6,667,374 Total City of Manteca General Fund Property Tax k = g + i $1,777,863 $3,331,419 $4,715,072 $5,220,651 $5,399,361 $5,487,129 EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 5.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $88,893 $666,284 $943,014 $1,044,130 $1,079,872 $1,097,426 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $1,688,970 $2,665,135 $3,772,058 $4,176,521 $4,319,489 $4,389,703 EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 5.0% 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $88,893 $433,084 $447,932 $495,962 $242,971 $246,921 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $1,688,970 $2,898,334 $4,267,141 $4,724,689 $5,156,390 $5,240,208 Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Manteca
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Manteca
Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) l $9,295,356,393 $9,295,356,393 $9,295,356,393 $9,295,356,393 $9,295,356,393 $9,295,356,393 m $1,317,493,758 $2,515,440,092 $3,620,033,825 $4,034,639,292 $4,159,639,292 $4,221,029,292 n = l + m $10,612,850,151 $11,810,796,485 $12,915,390,218 $13,329,995,685 $13,454,995,685 $13,516,385,685 o = m / l 14.17% 27.06% 38.94% 43.40% 44.75% 45.41%
Total Citywide Assessed Value [4]
Total Assessed Value of Project
Total Assessed Value
Percent Change in AV
Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [5] $7,228,240 p = o * $7,228,240 $1,024,507 $1,956,052 $2,815,005 $3,137,410 $3,234,612 $3,282,350 prop tax
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [4] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2019-20. Includes Citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll. [5] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the City of Manteca FY 2019-20 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for details. [1] Reflects the average property tax allocation to the City's General Fund for all TRAs within the 200-year flood plain that are within the City's boundary and not included in a redevelopment area. TRAs located in Project boundary include: 002-000, 002-005, 002-006, 002-055, 002-057, 002-058, 002-060, 002-063, 002-064, 002-074, 002-076, 002-078, 002-080, 002-087, and 002-088. Project TRAs not included in the redevelopment area include: 002-000, 002-060, 002-063, and 002-088. [2] Reflects the estimated property tax allocation to the City's General Fund of TRAs anticipated to annex into the City of Manteca within the boundary of the flood basin. Refer to Table D-1 for details. [3] EIFD allocation percentage represents the portion of property tax revenues to be diverted to the EIFD. Alocation percentages are negotiated allocation amounts based on discussions between the County, the Cities of Lathrop, Stockton, and Manteca, and Project Consultants. Reflects the Initial Base Rate for the period ending 2029 and the Maximum Tax Allocation Rate for 2030 and beyond.
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Real Property Transfer Tax (2020$)
Assumption/
Description Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55
Project Assessed Value Table D-2
Low Density Residential $666,500,000 $1,435,500,000 $2,015,500,000 $2,209,500,000 $2,209,500,000 $2,209,500,000 High Density Residential $93,800,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 Nonresidential $557,193,758 $932,340,092 $1,456,933,825 $1,677,539,292 $1,802,539,292 $1,863,929,292 Total Assessed Value $1,317,493,758 $2,515,440,092 $3,620,033,825 $4,034,639,292 $4,159,639,292 $4,221,029,292 Turnover Rate
Low Density Residential 14.30%
High Density Residential 6.70%
Nonresidential 5.00%
Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Low Density Residential $52,420 $112,902 $158,519 $173,777 $173,777 $173,777 High Density Residential $3,457 $5,439 $5,439 $5,439 $5,439 $5,439 Nonresidential $15,323 $25,639 $40,066 $46,132 $49,570 $51,258 Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenu
e $71,200 $143,980 $204,024 $225,349 $228,786 $230,474
transfer
Source: City of Manteca; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1,000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.
Estimated Annual Property Transfer Tax Revenue (2020$)
City of
Manteca
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$) Item Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents and Employees) a $40,347,645 $75,445,812 $103,598,636 $113,935,379 $115,184,129 $115,797,415 Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses b $121,792,711 $324,229,106 $577,848,534 $675,416,296 $755,012,084 $794,103,167 Annual Taxable Sales from New Development c = a + b $162,140,356 $399,674,918 $681,447,170 $789,351,675 $870,196,213 $909,900,582 Annual Sales Tax Revenue
Bradley Burns Local Sales Tax Revenue d = c * 1.0000% 1.0000% $1,621,404 $3,996,749 $6,814,472 $7,893,517 $8,701,962 $9,099,006 City of Manteca Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [1] e = d * 2.8912% 2.8912% $46,877 $115,553 $197,018 $228,215 $251,588 $263,067 sales
Source: City of Manteca; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.
Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales Tax Revenue
[1] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020-21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.
City of
Manteca
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5A
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Manteca
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$) Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents
Residential Development Table A-3
Low Density Residential 1,253 2,699 3,789 4,154 4,154 4,154 High Density Residential 441 694 694 694 694 694
Total Residential Development 1,694 3,392 4,483 4,848 4,848 4,848 Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1]
Low Density Residential $24,000 $30,072,480 $64,769,760 $90,939,360 $99,692,640 $99,692,640 $99,692,640 High Density Residential $15,000 $6,612,900 $10,405,800 $10,405,800 $10,405,800 $10,405,800 $10,405,800 Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $36,685,380 $75,175,560 $101,345,160 $110,098,440 $110,098,440 $110,098,440 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Households [2] 80% $29,348,304 $60,140,448 $81,076,128 $88,078,752 $88,078,752 $88,078,752 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 50% $14,674,152 $30,070,224 $40,538,064 $44,039,376 $44,039,376 $44,039,376 Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 50% $14,674,152 $30,070,224 $40,538,064 $44,039,376 $44,039,376 $44,039,376 Annual Taxable Sales from New Employment
Taxable Sales from New Employment
Employees Table A-4 10,185 14,172 20,854 23,941 25,098 25,665 Average Daily Taxable Sales per New Employee $10.00
Work Days per Year 240
Taxable Sales from New Employees [3] 50%
Total Taxable Sales from New Employees $12,221,490 $17,005,960 $25,025,009 $28,729,586 $30,117,086 $30,798,515 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Employees [2] 90% $10,999,341 $15,305,364 $22,522,508 $25,856,627 $27,105,377 $27,718,663 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 70% $7,699,539 $10,713,755 $15,765,756 $18,099,639 $18,973,764 $19,403,064 Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 30% $3,299,802 $4,591,609 $6,756,752 $7,756,988 $8,131,613 $8,315,599 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $40,347,645 $75,445,812 $103,598,636 $113,935,379 $115,184,129 $115,797,415 Taxable City Sales inside Project Area $22,373,691 $40,783,979 $56,303,820 $62,139,015 $63,013,140 $63,442,440 Taxable City Sales outside Project Area $17,973,954 $34,661,833 $47,294,816 $51,796,364 $52,170,989 $52,354,975 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; City of Manteca; EPS. [2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place within the City of Manteca. [3] Taxable sales from employees discounted by 50 percent to account for employees who are also residents.
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
City of
Manteca
Occupied Dwelling Units
Taxable Retail Expenditures
[1] For details pertaining to household taxable expenditure assumptions, refer to Table D-3.
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5B
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Nonresidential (2020$) Annual
Taxable Sales
Item per Sq. Ft. [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Taxable Sales from Commercial Development
Taxable Sales Generating Occupied Commercial
Development Square Feet
Retail Commercial 576,113 1,576,263 2,781,107 3,239,141 3,609,141 3,790,855 Total 576,113 1,576,263 2,781,107 3,239,141 3,609,141 3,790,855 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial
Development
Retail Commercial $240 $138,267,165 $378,303,037 $667,465,733 $777,393,858 $866,193,858 $909,805,314 Total $138,267,165 $378,303,037 $667,465,733 $777,393,858 $866,193,858 $909,805,314 Less Total Annual Taxable Sales from
Market Support (within the Project) [2] $22,373,691 $40,783,979 $56,303,820 $62,139,015 $63,013,140 $63,442,440 Annual Sales Less Market Support $115,893,474 $337,519,058 $611,161,913 $715,254,843 $803,180,718 $846,362,873 Shift from
Existing Retail
Less Shift of Sales from Existing Regional and
Community Retail to the Project [3] 10% $11,589,347 $33,751,906 $61,116,191 $71,525,484 $80,318,072 $84,636,287 Total Taxable Sales from Retail Commercial Uses $104,304,127 $303,767,152 $550,045,722 $643,729,358 $722,862,646 $761,726,586 Occupied Nonretail Commercial Uses
Office Commercial 144,028 394,066 642,205 721,332 813,832 859,261 Industrial 3,353,689 3,698,325 4,918,358 5,616,055 5,616,055 5,616,055 Total 3,497,717 4,092,391 5,560,562 6,337,388 6,429,888 6,475,316 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial
Uses
Office Commercial $5 $720,141 $1,970,328 $3,211,025 $3,606,661 $4,069,161 $4,296,304 Industrial $5 $16,768,443 $18,491,625 $24,591,788 $28,080,277 $28,080,277 $28,080,277 Total $17,488,584 $20,461,954 $27,802,812 $31,686,938 $32,149,438 $32,376,581 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Development $17,488,584 $20,461,954 $27,802,812 $31,686,938 $32,149,438 $32,376,581 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses $121,792,711 $324,229,106 $577,848,534 $675,416,296 $755,012,084 $794,103,167 sales b
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics; Urban Land Institute; EPS. [2] Estimated in Table B-5A.
City of
Manteca
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
[1] See Table D-4 for the taxable retail sales calculation. All retail is assumed to be community serving retail. Sales per square foot for the Retail space is based on average total sales per square foot figure derived from BizMiner and eMarketer data (escalated to 2020$) and converts total sales to taxable sales per square foot to account for a small portion of non-taxable goods sold. [3] Represents a discount factor to account for taxable sales transactions that may shift from the City's existing retail centers to those included in the Project.
Applied only to Retail uses within the Project.
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
Total Taxable Sales
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX C:
General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................ G-16 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expendit ures .................. G-17
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net Cit y or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment Net FY 2019-20 Item Procedure Expenditures [1] Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cos t Factor [2] Avg. Cos t General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislation and Policy Persons Served $1,569,362 - $1,569,362 95,300 $16.47 100% $16.47 Legal Services Persons Served $920,326 - $920,326 95,300 $9.66 100% $9.66 City Administration Persons Served $1,276,411 ($475,458) $800,953 95,300 $8.40 100% $8.40 Public Works Administration Persons Served $1,709,398 ($1,554,893) $154,505 95,300 $1.62 100% $1.62 Non Departmental Persons Served $9,181,518 - $9,181,518 95,300 $96.34 100% $96.34 Human Resources Persons Served $1,644,221 - $1,644,221 95,300 $17.25 100% $17.25 Fiscal and Revenue Management Persons Served $1,713,751 ($822,631) $891,120 95,300 $9.35 100% $9.35 Economic and Community Development Persons Served $365,978 - $365,978 95,300 $3.84 200% $7.68 Fleet Maintenance Persons Served $450,675 - $450,675 95,300 $4.73 100% $4.73 Subtotal General Government $18,831,640 ($2,852,981) $15,978,659 Public Safety
Police Protection [3] Persons Served $19,436,258 ($840,780) $18,595,478 95,300 $195.13 100% $195.13 Animal Services Persons Served $450,319 ($252,635) $197,684 95,300 $2.07 100% $2.07 Fire Protection [3] [4] Persons Served $10,890,170 ($1,792,064) $9,098,106 95,300 $95.47 100% $95.47 Subtotal Public Safet
y $30,776,747 ($2,885,479) $27,891,268
Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance Per Capita $2,988,546 ($55,000) $2,933,546 84,800 $34.59 100% $34.59 Library Per Capita $133,160 - $133,160 84,800 $1.57 100% $1.57 Recreational and Senior Services Per Capita $996,298 - $996,298 84,800 $11.75 100% $11.75 Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $4,118,004 ($55,000) $4,063,004 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage Persons Served $671,420 - $671,420 95,300 $7.05 100% $7.05 Subtotal Public Utilities $671,420 - $671,420
Transportation
Streets Persons Served $474,170 - $474,170 95,300 $4.98 100% $4.98 Subtotal Transportation $474,170 - $474,170
Total General Fund Expenditures $54,871,981 ($5,793,460) $49,078,521 exp
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Final Budget including Midyear Budget Amendments (Current as of March 10, 2021); EPS. [1] Includes midyear budget amendments as provided by City staff, current as of March 10, 2021 . [2] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department e xpenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment at this time.
City of
Manteca
[3] Police and Fire protection expenditures included reflect only City General Fund Police expenditures and excludes any Measu re M funded expenditures (Fund 320) for one-time capital expenditures included in the public safety endowment fund (Fund 330).
[4] It is anticipated that Project development would result in the need for an additional fire station to serve the Project ar ea to the south of the City prior to development of the first phase of the Project, based on information provided by the Fire Chief. This ongoing operations of a new fire station in the initial phase of Project dev elopment (2020 - 2025).
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Manteca
Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)
Expenditure Categor
y 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
General Fund
General Government
Legislation and Policy $170,100 $291,904 $406,182 $451,421 $460,942 $465,617 Legal Services $99,753 $171,182 $238,199 $264,728 $270,311 $273,053 City Administration $86,814 $148,979 $207,303 $230,391 $235,250 $237,636 Public Works Administration $16,747 $28,738 $39,989 $44,443 $45,380 $45,840 Non Departmental $995,169 $1,707,778 $2,376,361 $2,641,030 $2,696,729 $2,724,083 Human Resources $178,214 $305,828 $425,557 $472,954 $482,929 $487,827 Fiscal and Revenue Management $96,587 $165,750 $230,640 $256,328 $261,733 $264,388 Economic and Community Development $79,335 $136,145 $189,445 $210,544 $214,985 $217,166 Fleet Maintenance $48,848 $83,826 $116,644 $129,635 $132,369 $133,712 Subtotal General Government $1,771,567 $3,040,130 $4,230,319 $4,701,475 $4,800,628 $4,849,324 Public Safety
Police Protection $2,015,532 $3,458,790 $4,812,882 $5,348,922 $5,461,729 $5,517,131 Animal Services $21,427 $36,770 $51,165 $56,863 $58,062 $58,651 Fire Protection [2] $1,700,000 $1,692,263 $2,354,772 $2,617,037 $2,672,230 $2,699,336 Subtotal Public Safety $3,736,959 $5,187,822 $7,218,819 $8,022,822 $8,192,021 $8,275,118 Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Parks Maintenance $181,171 $368,082 $492,561 $534,197 $534,197 $534,197 Library $8,224 $16,708 $22,358 $24,248 $24,248 $24,248
Recreational and Senior Services $61,530 $125,009 $167,285 $181,425 $181,425 $181,425 Subtotal Parks, Recreation, and Community Svcs $250,925 $509,799 $682,204 $739,871 $739,871 $739,871 Public Utilities
Storm Drainage $72,774 $124,885 $173,777 $193,132 $197,205 $199,205 Subtotal Public Utilities $72,774 $124,885 $173,777 $193,132 $197,205 $199,205 Transportation
Streets $51,394 $88,196 $122,725 $136,393 $139,270 $140,682 Subtotal Transportation $51,394 $88,196 $122,725 $136,393 $139,270 $140,682 Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $5,883,619 $8,950,832 $12,427,844 $13,793,693 $14,068,994 $14,204,200 exp est
Source: City of Manteca FY 2020-21 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Annual expenditure estimated on a per persons served or per capita basis. Refer to Table C-1 for estimating procedure and Table A-5 for population and employment estimates.
Estimated Annual Expenditure [1]
City of
Manteca
[2] Based on information provided by the Fire Chief, it is anticipated that an additional fire station would be required to se rvice Project development south of the City. Staffing for an additional Fire station would consist of Three Fire Captains, Three Fire engineers, Three Firefighters and two Firefig hter floaters. It is estimated that staffing and
operations of this station would result in annual expenditures equalling $1,700,000 annually, based on information provid ed by the Manteca Fire Department. The ongoing
annual operational costs of a new fires station is included in the initial phase of the development. It is assumed that this cost is captured in the annual expenditures
calculated using the multiplier method for all remaining phases.
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX D:
Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area ......................................................... G-18 Table D-2 Cumulative Asse ssed Valuation ..................................... G-19 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annu al Household Income ................. G-20 Table D-4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet ................ G-21
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Areas Tax Code Entit y TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 Total Formula a b e f g = e + f h e = d * $396,888 f = e / $1,197,578 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 20.32600% 20.29360% $228,594 $14,804 $243,398 80% $317,510 26.51271% 10527 Road District 5 3.97920% 3.97840% $44,751 $2,902 $47,653 - - 0.00000% 14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire 8.83690% 8.84610% $99,384 $6,453 $105,837 - - 0.00000% 40200 City of Manteca 0.00000% 0.00000% - - - 20% $79,378 6.62818% Subtotal 33.14210% 33.11810% $372,728 $24,160 $396,888 100% $396,888 33.14089% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.63940% 1.63910% $18,437 $1,196 $19,633 -
$19,633 1.63940%
12601 Manteca Unified Schools 26.94230% 26.93720% $303,000 $19,651 $322,650 - $322,650 26.94192%
13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 3.64750% 3.64670% $41,021 $2,660 $43,681 - $43,681 3.64745%
13201 County Office Of Education 1.28960% 1.31780% $14,501 $961 $15,463 - $15,463 1.29115%
16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.16000% 0.15990% $1,799 $117 $1,916 - $1,916 0.15997% 21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.71800% 0.71790% $8,075 $524 $8,598 - $8,598 0.71797% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 5.41160% 5.41660% $60,861 $3,951 $64,813 - $64,813 5.41200%
41100 ERAF - Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund 27.04950% 27.04670% $304,205 $19,731 $323,936 - $323,936 27.04926%
Subtotal 66.85790% 66.88190% $751,899 $48,791 $800,690 0% $800,690 66.85911% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% $1,124,627 $72,951 $1,197,578 100% $1,197,578 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller. [2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreement between San Joaquin County and the City of Manteca dated November 2018 rela ted to annexed areas to the City.
Post-ERAF
Distribution
Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
City of
Manteca
Property Tax
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation AverageExisting Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1] Base
Revenue
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Cumulative Assessed Valuation (2020$)
Item 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $500,000 $528,625,000 $1,090,125,000 $1,585,625,000 $1,779,625,000 $1,779,625,000 $1,779,625,000 High Density Residential $200,000 $93,800,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 Subtotal Residential $622,425,000 $1,237,725,000 $1,733,225,000 $1,927,225,000 $1,927,225,000 $1,927,225,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $155,706,267 $426,016,933 $694,275,600 $779,818,533 $879,818,533 $928,930,533 Office Commercial $250 $38,926,567 $106,504,233 $173,568,900 $194,954,633 $219,954,633 $232,232,633 Industrial $100
$362,560,925 $399,818,925 $418,574,125 $418,574,125 $418,574,125 $418,574,125 Subtotal Nonresidential $557,193,758 $932,340,092 $1,286,418,625 $1,393,347,292 $1,518,347,292 $1,579,737,292 Total All Land Uses $1,179,618,758 $2,170,065,092 $3,019,643,625 $3,320,572,292 $3,445,572,292 $3,506,962,292 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $500,000 $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 Subtotal Residential $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 - - $57,375,000 $95,625,000 $95,625,000 $95,625,000 Industrial $100 - - $113,140,200 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 Subtotal Nonresidential - - $170,515,200 $284,192,000 $284,192,000 $284,192,000 Total All Land Uses $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $600,390,200 $714,067,000 $714,067,000 $714,067,000 Total City of Manteca Development Projections
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $500,000 $666,500,000 $1,435,500,000 $2,015,500,000 $2,209,500,000 $2,209,500,000 $2,209,500,000 High Density Residential $200,000 $93,800,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 $147,600,000 Subtotal Residential $760,300,000 $1,583,100,000 $2,163,100,000 $2,357,100,000 $2,357,100,000 $2,357,100,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $155,706,267 $426,016,933 $751,650,600 $875,443,533 $975,443,533 $1,024,555,533 Office Commercial $250 $38,926,567 $106,504,233 $173,568,900 $194,954,633 $219,954,633 $232,232,633 Industrial $100
$362,560,925 $399,818,925 $531,714,325 $607,141,125 $607,141,125 $607,141,125 Subtotal Nonresidential $557,193,758 $932,340,092 $1,456,933,825 $1,677,539,292 $1,802,539,292 $1,863,929,292 Total All Land Uses $1,317,493,758 $2,515,440,092 $3,620,033,825 $4,034,639,292 $4,159,639,292 $4,221,029,292
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
AV
Source: Costar; CBRE; The Gregory Group; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-5 for details.
Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
Total Assessed Value (2020$)
City of
Manteca
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Estimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$)
Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percentage per Household
Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] of Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Low Density Residential $500,000 $35,767 $102,000 23% $24,000 Renter-Occupied Residential
High Density Residential $200,000 $18,000 $51,000 30% $15,000 income
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS. [1] See Table A-5 for detail on estimated values for residential units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowner's association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance.
High density residential based on an average monthly rent assumption of $1,500 based on data on similar multifamily residential obtained from Costar, September 2019 with an average unit size of 1,000 square feet. [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.
City of
Manteca
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Mantec
a
Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet (2020$)
Item % [2] No. % [2] No. % [2] No.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers [3] $250 $279 3% $8 2% $6 1% $3 Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $525 $586 0% $0 7% $41 10% $59 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $356 $398 0% $0 15% $60 1% $4 Food and Beverage Stores [4] - $578 55% $318 24% $139 3% $17 Gasoline Stations [5] $1,321 $1,664 1% $17 2% $33 1% $17 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $370 $413 2% $8 5% $21 20% $83 General Merchandise Stores $360 $402 5% $20 20% $80 20% $80 Food Services and Drinking Places $492 $550 8% $44 10% $55 20% $110 Other Retail $209 $234 12% $28 7% $16 18% $42
Nonretail [6] NA $0 14% $0 8% $0 6% $0
Total 100% $440 100% $450 100% $410
Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot by Retail Center Type Percent Taxable by Shopping Center Type [7] 44% 54% 98% Taxable Sales per Square Foot (Rounded) $190 $240 $400
retail sales
Note: Original data is based on an average of multiple sources and is presented in 2016$ unless noted otherwise in footnotes. [1] Sales adjusted to year-end 2020 based on the Consumer Price Index, All items in West urban, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted:
Year CPI Adjustment to 2020$
2008 219.65 25.9%
2016 247.71 11.7%
2018 263.26 5.1%
2019 270.35 2.3%
2020 276.59 0.0%
[2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008. [3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes taxable sales per square foot for dealerships. [4]
[5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008, escalated to 2020$. [6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services. [7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2019$) [1]
Total Retail Sales by Shopping Center Typ
e
Neighborhood Community Regional
Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS.
Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSales, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports, escalated to 2020$.
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Attachment G: Manteca Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
T
HIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
ATTACHMENT A
ATTACHMENT H:
Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
ATTACHMENT A
List of Tables
Table 1 Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits ............................................................. H-1 Table 2 Estimated Annual Revenues and Expend itures ............................................... H-2
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table 1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits (2020$)
Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Annual Fiscal Impact Summar
y
Prior to EIFD Allocation
Annual General Fund Revenues $1,352,000 $2,886,000 $4,905,000 $7,103,000 $10,075,000 $11,239,000 Annual General Fund Expenditures $2,988,000 $3,708,000 $4,730,000 $5,582,000 $6,348,000 $6,624,000 Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) ($1,639,000) ($920,000) ($6,000) $1,244,000 $3,367,000 $4,238,000 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,800) ($98,700) ($181,000) ($277,600) ($360,600) ($377,700) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) ($1,641,800) ($1,018,700) ($187,000) $966,400 $3,006,400 $3,860,300 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,800) ($64,200) ($86,000) ($131,900) ($81,100) ($85,000) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) ($1,641,800) ($984,200) ($92,000) $1,112,100 $3,285,900 $4,153,000 sum
Source: EPS.
[2] EIFD Contribution represents the portion of City property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for details.
Estimated Annual Revenues/Expenditures (Rounded)
City of
Stockton
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023-24.
Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table 2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures (2020$)
Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Tax $277,700 $493,500 $905,000 $1,388,200 $1,803,100 $1,888,400 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $196,300 $381,800 $692,400 $1,051,200 $1,417,800 $1,530,300 Property Transfer Tax $9,400 $14,900 $23,700 $33,600 $43,300 $46,300 Sales and Use Tax $657,400 $1,556,300 $2,559,600 $3,636,900 $5,530,500 $6,384,400 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax $24,400 $57,700 $94,900 $134,800 $205,000 $236,600 Utility User Taxes $103,000 $211,200 $348,000 $474,600 $594,500 $637,800 Franchise Taxes $44,600 $91,400 $150,600 $205,500 $257,400 $276,100 Transient Occupancy Tax $8,200 $16,800 $27,700 $37,800 $47,300 $50,800 Business License Tax $29,900 $61,200 $100,900 $137,500 $172,300 $184,800 Licenses and Permits $600 $1,300 $2,100 $2,900 $3,600 $3,900 Total Annual General Fund Revenu
e $1,351,500 $2,886,100 $4,904,900 $7,103,000 $10,074,800 $11,239,400 Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government Administration $52,800 $108,200 $178,200 $243,100 $304,500 $326,700 Police Services $404,000 $828,100 $1,364,300 $1,860,600 $2,330,700 $2,500,300 Fire Services $136,500 $279,700 $460,800 $628,500 $787,300 $844,600 Fire Station Expenditures $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 Public Works $50,200 $103,000 $169,600 $231,300 $289,800 $310,900 Economic Development $4,100 $8,500 $13,900 $19,000 $23,800 $25,500 Office of Violence Prevention $6,200 $12,700 $20,900 $28,500 $35,700 $38,300 Library and Recreation (prior to 2034) $17,900 $34,600 - - - - Library and Recreation (2034 and beyond) - - $171,600 $206,800 $206,800 $206,800 Entertainment Venues $11,400 $22,000 $33,200 $40,100 $40,100 $40,100 Downtown Marina $700 $1,400 $2,100 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 Golf Courses $1,300 $4,200 $7,000 $9,500 $11,900 $12,800 Development Services $2,500 $5,200 $8,500 $11,600 $14,500 $15,600 Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $2,987,600 $3,707,600 $4,730,100 $5,581,500 $6,347,600 $6,624,100 EIFD Contribution [2]
Maximum Tax Rate ($2,800) ($98,700) ($181,000) ($277,600) ($360,600) ($377,700) Variable Tax Rate ($2,800) ($64,200) ($86,000) ($131,900) ($81,100) ($85,000) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit)
Prior to EIFD Allocation ($1,636,100) ($821,500) $174,800 $1,521,500 $3,727,200 $4,615,300 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax ($1,638,900) ($920,200) ($6,200) $1,243,900 $3,366,600 $4,237,600 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax ($1,638,900) ($885,700) $88,800 $1,389,600 $3,646,100 $4,530,300 det sum
Source: EPS.
[2] EIFD Contribution represents the portion of City property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for detail s.
Estimated Annual Revenues/Expenditures (Rounded)
City of
Stockton
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the dis trict in FY 2023-24. Secured and
unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus , the initial phase of this analysis
includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and d evelopment occurring in full
calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for deve lopment occurring from 2026
through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDICES:
Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: General Fund Revenue Analysis
Appendix C: General Fu nd Expenditure Analysis
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX A:
General Assumptions
T
able A-1 General Assumptions ..................................................... H-3 Table A-2 Cumulative Land Use Projections ..................................... H-4 Table A-3 Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and
Building Square Footage ................................................. H-5 Table A-4 Cumulative Estimated Population and Employees ............... H-6 Table A-5 Land Use Assumptions ................................................... H-7
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
General Assumptions
Item Assumption
General Assumptions
Fiscal Year of Budget Analysis [1] FY 2020-21
Base Fiscal Year of Potential EIFD [2] FY 2022-23
General Demographic Characteristics
City of Stockton
Population [3] 318,522
Employees [4] 123,000
City of Stockton Persons Served [5] 380,022
gen assumps
Source: California Department of Finance; EDD; U.S. Census LED; EPS. [5] Persons served is defined as total population plus half of total employees. Used to estimate specific revenues and ex
penditures that are assumed to be impacted by growth in resident and employment populations and to avoid double counting of employ
ees who reside in the City.
City of
Stockton
[1] Reflects the City
of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 adopted budget. Revenues and ex
penditures are in 2020 dollars. This analysis does not reflect changes in values resulting from inflation or appreciation.
[3] Based on population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) data for January
1, 2020.
[4] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimated a total of 109,746 jobs in Stockton, CA in 2018.
California EDD reports an annual average grow
th rate of 0.95% since 2018 for the Stockton-Lodi MSA.
EPS adj
usted the 2018 employment figure to arrive at a 2020 employment estimate using this growth rate and further increased the total by
10% to account for self-employed workers. Estimate is
rounded to the nearest hundred employ
ees.
[2] This analy
sis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY
2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on tax
able assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analy
sis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar y
ear 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-y
ear development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Cumulative Land Use Projections
Land Use
Dwelling
Units
Buildin
g
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Development Projections in Current City Limits [2]
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - High Density Residential 75 - 375 - 695 - 888 - 888 - 888 - Subtotal Residential 262 - 562 - 882 - 1,075 - 1,075 - 1,075 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 151,652 - 239,152 - 326,652 - 414,152 - 589,152 - 609,207 Office Commercial [5] - 64,994 - 102,494 - 139,994 - 177,494 - 252,494 - 261,089 Industrial - - - - - 1,104,150 - 2,864,525 - 3,920,750 - 3,920,750 Subtotal Nonresidential - 216,645 - 341,645 - 1,570,795 - 3,456,170 - 4,762,395 - 4,791,045 Total All Land Uses 262 216,645 562 341,645 882 1,570,795 1,075 3,456,170 1,075 4,762,395 1,075 4,791,045 Development Projections in Annexation Areas [3]
Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 162,500 - 512,500 - 887,500 - 1,287,500 - 2,028,500 - 2,433,600 Subtotal Nonresidential - 162,500 - 512,500 - 887,500 - 1,287,500 - 2,028,500 - 2,433,600 Total All Land Uses - 162,500 - 512,500 - 887,500 - 1,287,500 - 2,028,500 - 2,433,600 Total City of Stockton Development Projections
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - 187 - High Density Residential 75 - 375 - 695 - 888 - 888 - 888 - Subtotal Residential 262 - 562 - 882 - 1,075 - 1,075 - 1,075 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 314,152 - 751,652 - 1,214,152 - 1,701,652 - 2,617,652 - 3,042,807 Office Commercial [5] - 64,994 - 102,494 - 139,994 - 177,494 - 252,494 - 261,089 Industrial - - - - - 1,104,150 - 2,864,525 - 3,920,750 - 3,920,750 Subtotal Nonresidential - 379,145 - 854,145 - 2,458,295 - 4,743,670 - 6,790,895 - 7,224,645 Total All Land Uses 262 379,145 562 854,145 882 2,458,295 1,075 4,743,670 1,075 6,790,895 1,075 7,224,645
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE lu
Source: City of Stockton; LWA; EPS.
[4] For the purpose of this analysis, low density residential is considered to be owner-occupied and high density residential is assumed to be renter-occupied.
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the dis trict in FY 2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estim ated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequ ent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060. [5] Nonresidential commercial land use projections provided by the City reflect a general commercial land use designation. Th is analysis assumes general commercial will comprise both retail and office land uses. EPS determined a preliminary estimated allocation of retail and office space based on the existing proportion of retail and office space in the City, the City's current General Plan, and the proposed land use plans of anticipated development projects within the EIFD boundary.
City of
Stockton
Cumulative Dwelling Units/Building Square Footage
2025 [1]
2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
[3] Includes development projections in the future Stockton Annexation Area. [2] Development projections were provided by LWA and are based on land use data provided by the City as of February, 2020. Inc ludes development projections in Weston Ranch and the South Airport Area.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and Building Square Footag e
Vacancy
Land Use Rate [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses
Low Density Residential 6.0% 176 176 176 176 176 176
High Density Residential 6.0% 71 353 653 835 835 835
Subtotal Residential Land Uses 246 528 829 1,010 1,010 1,010 Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 140,278 221,215 302,153 383,090 544,965 563,516 Office Commercial 7.5% 60,119 94,806 129,494 164,181 233,556 241,507 Industrial 7.5% - - 1,021,339 2,649,686 3,626,694 3,626,694 Subtotal Nonresidential 200,397 316,022 1,452,985 3,196,957 4,405,215 4,431,717 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 150,313 474,063 820,938 1,190,938 1,876,363 2,251,080 Subtotal Nonresidential 150,313 474,063 820,938 1,190,938 1,876,363 2,251,080 Total City of Stockton Development Projections
Residential Land Uses
Low Density Residential 6.0% 176 176 176 176 176 176
High Density Residential 6.0% 71 353 653 835 835 835
Subtotal Residential Land Uses 246 528 829 1,010 1,010 1,010 Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 290,590 695,278 1,123,090 1,574,028 2,421,328 2,814,596 Office Commercial 7.5% 60,119 94,806 129,494 164,181 233,556 241,507 Industrial 7.5% - - 1,021,339 2,649,686 3,626,694 3,626,694 Subtotal Nonresidential 350,709 790,084 2,273,923 4,387,895 6,281,578 6,682,797
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
occupied
Source: California Department of Finance; City of Stockton; Costar; LWA; EPS. [1] For details pertaining to vacancy rate assumptions, refer to Table A-5.
Occupied Dwelling Units/Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
City of
Stockton
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Cumulative Estimated Population and Employees
Assumption
Land Use [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Project Residents
Residential Land Uses
PPH
Low Density Residential 3.30 580 580 580 580 580 580
High Density Residential 2.50 176 881 1,633 2,087 2,087 2,087 Subtotal Residential Land Uses 756 1,461 2,213 2,667 2,667 2,667 Total Resident Population 756 1,461 2,213 2,667 2,667 2,667 Project Employees
Nonresidential Land Uses Sq. Ft. per Emp.
Retail Commercial 400 726 1,738 2,808 3,935 6,053 7,036 Office Commercial 400 150 237 324 410 584 604
Industrial 2,000 0 0 511 1,325 1,813 1,813
Subtotal Nonresidential 877 1,975 3,642 5,670 8,451 9,454 Total Employee Population 877 1,975 3,642 5,670 8,451 9,454 Project Persons Served 1,195 2,449 4,034 5,502 6,892 7,394 pop
Source: California Department of Finance; EPS.
[1] For persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, refer to Table A-5.
Estimated Population/Employees
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-5
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Land Use Assumptions
Persons Per
Estimated Propert y Household/
Assessed Turnover Vacancy Sq. Ft. per
Land Use Value [1] Rate [2] Rate [3] Employee [4]
Residential Land Uses per Unit PPH
Low Density Residential $425,000 14.3% 6.0% 3.30
High Density Residential $200,000 6.7% 6.0% 2.50
Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. per Emp.
Retail Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400
Office Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400
Industrial $100 5.0% 7.5% 2,000
lu assum
Source: The Gregory Group; Costar; Colliers, International; CBRE; US Census; EPS. [1] Residential assessed values are based on sales data of comparable products as obtained through The Gregory Group for the last 4 quarters (Q3 2018 through Q2 2019). Nonresidential values per square foot based on comparable transaction data for transactions made in San Joaquin County since 2005 obtained from Costar, data accessed on March 25, 2021. Commercial retail and office categories are a blended average of retail and commercial uses.
[2] Owner-occupied residential (low density) assumed to turn over once every 7 years and renter-occupied (high density) residential is assumed to turn over once every 15 years. Nonresidential uses are assumed to turn over once every 20 years.
City of
Stockton
[3] Residential vacancy rates obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates, for San Joaquin County. Commercial and industrial vacancy rates based on Q3 2019 Costar and Q3 2019 Colliers International market reports for the Stockton/Modes to area.
[4] Persons per household figures obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates. Square feet per employee values are based on empirical research for proposed land uses.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX B:
General Fund Revenue Analysis
Tab
le B-1 Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget .................................. H-8 Table B-2 Estimated Annual Ge neral Fund Revenues ........................ H-9 Table B-3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2 pages) ......... H-10 Table B-4 Real Property Transfer Tax ........................................... H-12 Table B-5 Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue ..... H-13 Table B-5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method ............................ H-14 Table B-5B Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from
Onsite Nonresidential ................................................... H-15
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Stockton FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$ )
FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Budgeted Budgeted
Estimating Case Stud y General Fund Offsetting Net General Service Revenue Item Procedure Reference Revenues Revenue Fund Revenue s Population [1] Multiplier General Fund Revenues
Taxes
Property Tax Case Study Table B-3 $37,023,000 -
$37,023,000 N/A -
Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Case Study Table B-3 $25,626,000 - $25,626,000 N/A -
Property Transfer Tax Case Study Table B-4 $780,000 -
$780,000 N/A -
Sales and Use Tax Case Study Table B-5 $43,229,000 -
$43,229,000 N/A -
Measure A Transaction Tax [2] - $28,472,000 -
$28,472,000 N/A -
Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $1,602,000 - $1,602,000 N/A -
Utility User Taxes Persons Served - $32,780,000 -
$32,780,000 380,022 $86.26
Franchise Taxes Persons Served - $14,191,000 -
$14,191,000 380,022 $37.34
Transient Occupancy Tax Persons Served - $2,609,000 -
$2,609,000 380,022 $6.87
Business License Tax Persons Served - $9,500,000 -
$9,500,000 380,022 $25.00
Total Taxes $195,812,000 -
$195,812,000 N/A -
Licenses and Permits
Persons Served - $530,735 ($329,550) $201,185 380,022 $0.53 Intergovernmental Revenue [3] - $3,106,730 ($85,000) $3,021,730 N/A - Charges for Services [4] - $9,033,455 ($8,976,275) $57,180 N/A - Uses of Money and Property [3] - $6,111,582 ($378,804) $5,732,778 N/A - Sale of Fixed Assets [3] - $100,000 -
$100,000 N/A -
Fines and Forfeitures [4] - $1,057,657 ($843,655) $214,002 N/A - Reimbursements/Other Revenue [3] - $7,330,167 ($2,079,215) $5,250,952 N/A - Subtotal General Fund Revenue $223,082,326 ($12,692,499) $210,389,827 Transfers In [3] - $368,000 -
$368,000 N/A -
Total General Fund Revenue $223,450,326 ($12,692,499) $210,757,827 rev
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS. [1] Refer to Table A-1.
[4] Based on the City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget, these revenue categories are fully offset by exp enditures as shown on Table C-1.
[3] These revenue sources are not anticipated to be impacted by development included in this analysis. [2] Measure A is a 0.75% transaction and use tax approved by voters in November 2013 and is set to expire in 2024 or sooner if certain conditions are met. As it is unknown if Measure A will be extended beyond the initial 10 year period, it has been excluded from this analysis.
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues (2020$)
Case Study
Revenue Category Reference 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060 ) General Fund Revenues
Property Tax Table B-3 $277,700 $493,500 $905,000 $1,388,200 $1,803,100 $1,888,400 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Table B-3 $196,300 $381,800 $692,400 $1,051,200 $1,417,800 $1,530,300 Property Transfer Tax Table B-4 $9,400 $14,900 $23,700 $33,600 $43,300 $46,300 Sales and Use Tax Table B-5 $657,400 $1,556,300 $2,559,600 $3,636,900 $5,530,500 $6,384,400 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Table B-5 $24,400 $57,700 $94,900 $134,800 $205,000 $236,600 Utility User Taxes - $103,000 $211,200 $348,000 $474,600 $594,500 $637,800 Franchise Taxes - $44,600 $91,400 $150,600 $205,500 $257,400 $276,100 Transient Occupancy Tax - $8,200 $16,800 $27,700 $37,800 $47,300 $50,800 Business License Tax - $29,900 $61,200 $100,900 $137,500 $172,300 $184,800 Licenses and Permits - $600 $1,300 $2,100 $2,900 $3,600 $3,900 Total General Fund Revenue $1,351,500 $2,886,100 $4,904,900 $7,103,000 $10,074,80 0 $11,239,400 EIFD Contribution - Maximum Tax Rate
Less EIFD Contribution ($2,777) ($98,702) ($181,000) ($277,645) ($360,630) ($377,672) Net General Fund Revenues $1,348,723 $2,787,398 $4,723,900 $6,825,35 5 $9,714,170 $10,861,72 8 EIFD Contribution - Variable Tax Rate
Less EIFD Contribution ($2,777) ($64,156) ($85,975) ($131,881) ($81,142) ($84,976) Net General Fund Revenues $1,348,723 $2,821,944 $4,818,925 $6,971,119 $9,993,658 $11,154,424 rev est
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.
Estimated Annual Revenue (Rounded)
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Assessed Value of New Development Table D-2
Assessed Value of New Development in Current City Limits a $148,619,250 $239,869,250 $445,534,250 $691,421,750 $859,544,250 $866,706,750 Assessed Value of New Development in Annexation Area b $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total Assessed Value c = a + b $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000%
Property Tax Revenue in Current City Limits d = a * 1.00% $1,486,193 $2,398,693 $4,455,343 $6,914,218 $8,595,443 $8,667,068 Property Tax Revenue in Annexation Areas e = b * 1.00% $406,250 $1,281,250 $2,218,750 $3,218,750 $5,071,250 $6,084,000 Total Property Tax Revenue f = d + e $1,892,443 $3,679,943 $6,674,093 $10,132,968 $13,666,693 $14,751,068 Estimated Property Tax Allocation
Property Tax Allocation in Current City Limits [1]
City of Stockton General Fund 16.7111% g = d * 16.71% $248,360 $400,849 $744,539 $1,155,445 $1,436,397 $1,448,367 Other Agencies/ERAF 83.2889% h = d * 83.29% $1,237,833 $1,997,843 $3,710,804 $5,758,772 $7,159,045 $7,218,701 Property Tax Allocation in Annexation Areas [2]
City of Stockton General Fund 7.2320% i = e * 7.23% $29,380 $92,659 $160,459 $232,779 $366,751 $439,992 Other Agencies/ERAF 92.7680% j = e * 92.77% $376,870 $1,188,591 $2,058,291 $2,985,971 $4,704,499 $5,644,008 Total City of Stockton General Fund Property Tax k = g + i $277,740 $493,509 $904,998 $1,388,224 $1,803,148 $1,888,359 EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 1.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,777 $98,702 $181,000 $277,645 $360,630 $377,672 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $274,962 $394,807 $723,998 $1,110,579 $1,442,518 $1,510,687 EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 1.0% 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,777 $64,156 $85,975 $131,881 $81,142 $84,976 Net City General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $274,962 $429,352 $819,023 $1,256,343 $1,722,006 $1,803,383 Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
City of
Stockton
Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [4] l $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 $24,701,295,559 Total Assessed Value of Project m $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Total Assessed Value n = l + m $24,890,539,809 $25,069,289,809 $25,368,704,809 $25,714,592,309 $26,067,964,809 $26,176,402,309 Percent Change in AV o = m / l 0.77% 1.49% 2.70% 4.10% 5.53% 5.97% Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [5] $25,626,000 p = o * $25,626,000 $196,329 $381,770 $692,394 $1,051,230 $1,417,831 $1,530,328 prop tax
Source: City of Stockton; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [2] Refer to Table D-1 for details.
[4] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes Citywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utility roll.
[5] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the City of Stockton FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for deta ils.
[1] Reflects the average property tax allocation to the City's General Fund for all TRAs within the 200-year flood plain that are within the City's boundary. TRAs include: 003-159, 003-206, 003-238, 003,240, 003-289, 003-312, 003-455, 003-463, 003-464, 003-479, and 003-481. [3] EIFD allocation percentage represents the portion of property tax revenues to be diverted to the EIFD. Alocation percentag es are negotiated allocation amounts based on discussions between the County, the Cities of Lathrop, Stockton, and Manteca, and Project Consultants. Reflects the Initial Base Rate for the period ending 2 029 and the Maximum Tax Allocation Rate for 2030 and beyond.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Real Property Transfer Tax (2020$)
Assumption
/
Description Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55
Project Assessed Value Table D-2
Low Density Residential $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 High Density Residential $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 Nonresidential $94,786,250 $213,536,250 $448,951,250 $756,238,750 $1,109,611,250 $1,218,048,750 Total Assessed Value $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750 Turnover Rate
Low Density Residential 14.30%
High Density Residential 6.70%
Nonresidential 5.00%
Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Low Density Residential $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 $6,249 High Density Residential $553 $2,764 $5,122 $6,545 $6,545 $6,545 Nonresidential $2,607 $5,872 $12,346 $20,797 $30,514 $33,496 Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenue $9,409 $14,885 $23,718 $33,590 $43,308 $46,290 transfer
Source: City of Stockton; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.
Estimated Annual Property Transfer Tax Revenue (2020$)
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$) Item Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents and Employees) a $5,167,169 $9,737,481 $15,147,354 $19,514,889 $22,517,496 $23,600,786 Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses b $60,572,394 $145,888,155 $240,817,294 $344,175,286 $530,532,359 $614,835,607 Annual Taxable Sales from New Development c = a + b $65,739,563 $155,625,63 6 $255,964,648 $363,690,17 5 $553,049,855 $638,436,394 Annual Sales Tax Revenue
Bradley Burns Local Sales Tax Revenue d = c * 1.0000% 1.0000% $657,396 $1,556,256 $2,559,646 $3,636,902 $5,530,499 $6,384,364 City of Stockton Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue [1] e = d * 3.7058% 3.7058% $24,362 $57,672 $94,857 $134,778 $204,952 $236,595 sales
Source: City of Stockton; California State Board of Equalization; EPS.
Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales Tax Revenue
[1] Calculated as the ratio of Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue to total sales tax revenue based on the FY 2020-21 Budget. Any variation in the relationship between Proposition 172 Public Safety Tax revenue and total sales tax revenue affecting the estimate of this revenue source is estimated to be nominal.
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5A
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$) Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents
Residential Development Table A-3
Low Density Residential 176 176 176 176 176 176
High Density Residential 71 353 653 835 835 835
Total Residential Development 246 528 829 1,010 1,010 1,010 Taxable Retail Expenditures
per Household [1]
Low Density Residential $24,000 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 $4,217,818 High Density Residential $15,000 $1,057,500 $5,287,500 $9,799,500 $12,520,800 $12,520,800 $12,520,800 Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $5,275,318 $9,505,318 $14,017,318 $16,738,618 $16,738,618 $16,738,618 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Households [2] 80% $4,220,254 $7,604,254 $11,213,854 $13,390,894 $13,390,894 $13,390,894 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 50% $2,110,127 $3,802,127 $5,606,927 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 50% $2,110,127 $3,802,127 $5,606,927 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 $6,695,447 Annual Taxable Sales from New Employment
Taxable Sales from New Employment
Employees Table A-4 877 1,975 3,642 5,670 8,451 9,454
Average Daily Taxable Sales per New Employee $10.00
Work Days per Year 240
Taxable Sales from New Employees [3] 50%
Total Taxable Sales from New Employees $1,052,127 $2,370,252 $4,370,556 $6,804,439 $10,140,669 $11,344,325 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Employees [2] 90% $946,915 $2,133,227 $3,933,500 $6,123,995 $9,126,602 $10,209,892 Estimated Taxable Sales inside Project Area 70% $662,840 $1,493,259 $2,753,450 $4,286,796 $6,388,621 $7,146,925 Estimated Taxable Sales outside Project Area 30% $284,074 $639,968 $1,180,050 $1,837,198 $2,737,981 $3,062,968 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $5,167,169 $9,737,481 $15,147,354 $19,514,889 $22,517,496 $23,600,786 Taxable City Sales inside Project Area $2,772,967 $5,295,386 $8,360,377 $10,982,243 $13,084,068 $13,842,372 Taxable City Sales outside Project Area $2,394,201 $4,442,095 $6,786,977 $8,532,646 $9,433,428 $9,758,415 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; City of Stockton; EPS. [2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place within the City of Stockton. [3] Taxable sales from employees discounted by 50 percent to account for employees who are also residents. [1] For details pertaining to household taxable expenditure assumptions, refer to Table D-3.
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
Occupied Dwelling Units
Taxable Retail Expenditures
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5B
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Nonresidential (2020$) Annual
Taxable Sales
per Sq. Ft. [1]
Item / Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Taxable Sales from Commercial Development
Taxable Sales Generating Occupied Commercial
Development Square Feet
Retail Commercial 290,590 695,278 1,123,090 1,574,028 2,421,328 2,814,596 Total 290,590 695,278 1,123,090 1,574,028 2,421,328 2,814,596 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial
Development
Retail Commercial $240 $69,741,633 $166,866,633 $269,541,633 $377,766,633 $581,118,633 $675,503,043 Total $69,741,633
$166,866,633 $269,541,633 $377,766,633 $581,118,633 $675,503,043 Less Total Annual Taxable Sales from
Market Support (within the Project) [2] $2,772,967 $5,295,386 $8,360,377 $10,982,243 $13,084,068 $13,842,372 Annual Sales Less Market Support $66,968,666 $161,571,247 $261,181,256 $366,784,390 $568,034,565 $661,660,671 Shift from
Existing Retail
Less Shift of Sales from Existing Regional and
Community Retail to the Project [3] 10% $6,696,867 $16,157,125 $26,118,126 $36,678,439 $56,803,456 $66,166,067 Total Taxable Sales from Retail Commercial Uses $60,271,799 $145,414,122 $235,063,130 $330,105,951 $511,231,108 $595,494,604 Occupied Nonretail Commercial Uses
Office Commercial $60,119 $94,806 $129,494 $164,181 $233,556 $241,507 Industrial - - $1,021,339 $2,649,686 $3,626,694 $3,626,694 Total $60,119 $94,806 $1,150,833 $2,813,867 $3,860,250 $3,868,201 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial
Uses
Office Commercial $5 $300,595 $474,032 $647,470 $820,907 $1,167,782 $1,207,534 Industrial $5 - - $5,106,694 $13,248,428 $18,133,469 $18,133,469 Total $300,595 $474,032 $5,754,164 $14,069,336 $19,301,251 $19,341,003 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Developmen t $300,595 $474,032 $5,754,164 $14,069,336 $19,301,251 $19,341,003 Total Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses $60,572,394 $145,888,155 $240,817,294 $344,175,286 $530,532,359 $614,835,607 sales b
Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics; Urban Land Institute; EPS. [2] Estimated in Table B-5A.
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
[3] Represents a discount factor to account for taxable sales transactions that may shift from the City's existing retail cent ers to those included in the Project.
Applied only to the Retail uses within the Project.
[1] See Table D-4 for the taxable retail sales calculation. All retail is assumed to be community serving retail. Sales per sq uare foot for the Retail
space is based on average total sales per square foot figure derived from BizMiner and eMarketer data (escalated to 2020$ ) and converts total sales to
taxable sales per square foot to account for a small portion of non-taxable goods sold.
City of
Stockton
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
Total Taxable Sales
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX C:
General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................ H-16 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expendit ures .................. H-17
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Stockton FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net City or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment FY 2020-21 Item Procedure Expenditures [1] Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cos t Factor [2] Avg. Cos t General Fund
General Government Administration Persons Served $16,978,158 ($187,500) $16,790,658 380,022 $44.18 100% $44.18 Police Services Persons Served $136,160,466 ($7,648,853) $128,511,613 380,022 $338.17 100% $338.17 Fire Services Persons Served $48,088,874 ($4,678,487) $43,410,387 380,022 $114.23 100% $114.23 Fire Station Expenditures [3] Case Study N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Public Works Persons Served $16,015,900 ($37,355) $15,978,545 380,022 $42.05 100% $42.05 Economic Development Persons Served $1,452,575 ($140,304) $1,312,271 380,022 $3.45 100% $3.45 Office of Violence Prevention Persons Served $1,967,245 - $1,967,245 380,022 $5.18 100% $5.18 Library and Recreation (prior to 2034) [4] Per Capita $7,550,000 - $7,550,000 318,522 $23.70 100% $23.70 Library and Recreation (2034 and beyond) [4] Per Capita $24,697,929 - $24,697,929 318,522 $77.54 100% $77.54 Entertainment Venues Per Capita $4,785,000 - $4,785,000 318,522 $15.02 100% $15.02 Downtown Marina Per Capita $297,000 - $297,000 318,522 $0.93 100% $0.93 Golf Courses Per Capita $550,000 - $550,000 318,522 $1.73 100% $1.73 Grant Match [5] $100,000 - $100,000 N/A - 100% -
Development Services Persons Served $800,000 - $800,000 380,022 $2.11 100% $2.11 Low and Moderate Income Housing [5] - - - N/A - 100% - Radio and Retirement ISF [5] $5,250,000 - $5,250,000 N/A - 100% - Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $264,693,147 ($12,692,499) $252,000,648 Debt Service [5] $1,837,175 - $1,837,175 N/A - 100% - Contingency [5] $2,000,000 - $2,000,000 N/A - 100% - Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $268,530,322 ($12,692,499) $255,837,823 Available Balance [6] ($45,079,996) ($45,079,996)
exp
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; City of Stockton; EPS. [6] Available Balance reflects surplus annual General Fund Revenues beyond those required to fund all annual General Fund Expe nditures.
[5] This expenditure category is not expected to be affected by the project and not evaluated as part of this analysis.
City of
Stockton
[1] Represents the approved FY 2020-21 budgeted expenditures. [2] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department e xpenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment at this time.
[3] Based on conversations with the Fire Chief it is anticipated that an additional fire station would be required to serve th e anticipated development south of the City. The annual operating costs related to the operation of the additional fire station have been included as an additional annual expenditure in all phases of developm ent.
[4] Under current budget conditions, Library and Recreation funding includes support from Sales Tax Measure M. This sales tax measure is expected to expire in 2034 and is not anticipated to be renewed. As a result all Library and Recreation expenditures currently funded through Measure M are expected to be absorbed by the Ci ty General Fund beginning in 2034.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)
Expenditure Category 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) General Fund
General Government Administration $52,781 $108,196 $178,247 $243,094 $304,513 $326,672 Police Services $403,972 $828,110 $1,364,263 $1,860,582 $2,330,670 $2,500,269 Fire Services $136,459 $279,730 $460,839 $628,493 $787,285 $844,575 Fire Station Expenditures [2] $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 Public Works $50,228 $102,963 $169,626 $231,336 $289,785 $310,872 Economic Development $4,125 $8,456 $13,931 $18,999 $23,799 $25,531 Office of Violence Prevention $6,184 $12,677 $20,884 $28,482 $35,678 $38,274 Library and Recreation (prior to 2034) [3] $17,924 $34,635 - - - - Library and Recreation (2034 and beyond) [3] - - $171,610 $206,778 $206,778 $206,778 Entertainment Venues $11,360 $21,951 $33,248 $40,061 $40,061 $40,061 Downtown Marina $705 $1,362 $2,064 $2,487 $2,487 $2,487 Golf Courses $1,306 $4,228 $6,966 $9,500 $11,901 $12,767 Development Services $2,515 $5,155 $8,493 $11,582 $14,509 $15,564 Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $2,987,559 $3,707,464 $4,730,170 $5,581,394 $6,347,464 $6,623,849 exp est
Source: City of Stockton Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS. [1] Annual expenditure estimated on a per persons served or per capita basis. Refer to Table C-1 for estimating procedure and Table A-5 for population and employment estimates.
Estimated Annual Expenditure [1]
City of
Stockton
[2] Based on conversations with the Fire Chief it is anticipated that an additional fire station would be required to serve the anticipated development south of the City. This analysis assumes the required station will be developed and staffed within the first phase of development. Based on information provided by the Fire Chief, current as of July 2020, the additional station would require nine additional firefighters to staff an engine and company for a total annual expenditure increase of $2,300,000. The fire station expenditures have been included in this analysis in addition to the per persons served multiplier expenditures. [3] Under current budget conditions, Library and Recreation funding includes support from Sales Tax Measure M. This sales tax measure is expected to expire in 2034 and is not anticipated to be renewed. As a result, all Library and Recreation expenditures currently funded through Measure M are expected to be absorbed by the City General Fund beginning in 2034.
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX D:
Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area ......................................................... H-18 Table D-2 Cumulative Asse ssed Valuation ..................................... H-19 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annu al Household Income ................. H-20 Table D-4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet ................ H-21
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entit y TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 Total Formula a b e f g = e + f h e = d * $278,126 f = e / $769,158 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 22.29650% 22.30610% $172,291 ($796) $171,495 80% $222,501 28.92784% 10527 Road District 1 4.26040% 4.26030% $32,921 ($152) $32,769 - - 0.00000% 14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire 9.60300% 9.60300% $74,205 ($343) $73,862 - - 0.00000% 40400 City of Stockton 0.00000% 0.00000% - - - 20% $55,625 7.23196% Subtotal 36.15990% 36.16940% $279,417 ($1,291) $278,126 100% $278,126 36.15980% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.80010% 1.80010% $13,910 ($64) $13,846 - $13,846 1.80013% 12601 Manteca Unified Schools 29.58380% 29.58380% $228,602 ($1,056) $227,546 - $227,546 29.58378% 13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 4.00510% 4.00510% $30,949 ($143) $30,806 - $30,806 4.00514% 13201 County Office Of Education 1.43850% 1.42890% $11,116 ($51) $11,065 - $11,065 1.43855% 16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.17560% 0.17570% $1,357 ($6) $1,351 - $1,351 0.17564% 21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.78840% 0.78840% $6,092 ($28) $6,064 - $6,064 0.78838% 41100 ERAF - Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund 26.04860% 26.04860% $201,285 ($930) $200,355 - $200,355 26.04859% Subtotal 63.84010% 63.83060% $493,311 ($2,279) $491,032 - $491,032 63.84020% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% $772,729 ($3,570) $769,158 100% $769,158 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller.
City of
Stockton
Existing Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1]
[2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreement between San Joaquin County and the City of Stockton dated August 2015 relat ed to annexed areas to the City.
Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
Property Tax
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Base
Revenue
Post-ERAF
Distribution
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Cumulative Assessed Valuation (2020$)
Item 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $425,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 High Density Residential $200,000 $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 Subtotal Residential $94,458,000 $154,458,000 $218,458,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $37,912,875 $59,787,875 $81,662,875 $103,537,875 $147,287,875 $152,301,625 Office Commercial $250 $16,248,375 $25,623,375 $34,998,375 $44,373,375 $63,123,375 $65,272,125 Industrial $100 - - $110,415,000 $286,452,500 $392,075,000 $392,075,000 Subtotal Nonresidential $54,161,250 $85,411,250 $227,076,250 $434,363,750 $602,486,250 $609,648,750 Total All Land Uses $148,619,250 $239,869,250 $445,534,250 $691,421,750 $859,544,250 $866,706,750 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Subtotal Nonresidential $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total All Land Uses $40,625,000 $128,125,000 $221,875,000 $321,875,000 $507,125,000 $608,400,000 Total City of Stockton Development Projections
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential $425,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 $79,458,000 High Density Residential $200,000 $15,000,000 $75,000,000 $139,000,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 $177,600,000 Subtotal Residential $94,458,000 $154,458,000 $218,458,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 $257,058,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $78,537,875 $187,912,875 $303,537,875 $425,412,875 $654,412,875 $760,701,625 Office Commercial $250 $16,248,375 $25,623,375 $34,998,375 $44,373,375 $63,123,375 $65,272,125 Industrial $100 - - $110,415,000 $286,452,500 $392,075,000 $392,075,000 Subtotal Nonresidential $94,786,250 $213,536,250 $448,951,250 $756,238,750 $1,109,611,250 $1,218,048,750 Total All Land Uses $189,244,250 $367,994,250 $667,409,250 $1,013,296,750 $1,366,669,250 $1,475,106,750
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
AV
Source: Costar; CBRE; The Gregory Group; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-5 for details.
Total Assessed Value (2020$)
Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
City of
Stockton
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
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Table D-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockton
Estimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$)
Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percent o
f per Household
Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Low Density Residential $425,000 $32,202 $92,000 26% $24,000 Renter-Occupied Residential
High Density Residential $200,000 $18,000 $51,000 30% $15,000 income
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS. [1] See Table A-5 for detail on estimated values for residential units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowner's association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance.
High density residential based on an average monthly rent assumption of $1,500 based on data on similar multifamily residential obtained from Costar, September 2019 with an average unit size of 1,000 square feet. [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.
City of
Stockton
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ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - City of Stockto
n
Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet (2020$)
Item % [2] No. % [2] No. % [2] No.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers [3] $250 $279 3% $8 2% $6 1% $3 Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $525 $586 0% $0 7% $41 10% $59 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $356 $398 0% $0 15% $60 1% $4 Food and Beverage Stores [4] - $578 55% $318 24% $139 3% $17 Gasoline Stations [5] $1,321 $1,664 1% $17 2% $33 1% $17 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $370 $413 2% $8 5% $21 20% $83 General Merchandise Stores $360 $402 5% $20 20% $80 20% $80 Food Services and Drinking Places $492 $550 8% $44 10% $55 20% $110 Other Retail $209 $234 12% $28 7% $16 18% $42
Nonretail [6] NA $0 14% $0 8% $0 6% $0
Total 100% $440 100% $450 100% $410
Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot by Retail Center Type Percent Taxable by Shopping Center Type [7] 44% 54% 98% Taxable Sales per Square Foot (Rounded) $190 $240 $400
retail sales
Note: Original data is based on an average of multiple sources and is presented in 2016$ unless noted otherwise in footnotes. [1] Sales adjusted to year-end 2020 based on the Consumer Price Index, All items in West urban, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted:
Year CPI Adjustment to 2020$
2008 219.65 25.9%
2016 247.71 11.7%
2018 263.26 5.1%
2019 270.35 2.3%
2020 276.59 0.0%
[2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008. [3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes taxable sales per square foot for dealerships. [4]
[5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008, escalated to 2020$. [6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services. [7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.
Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS.
Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSales, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports, escalated to 2020$.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2020$) [1]
Total Retail Sales by Shopping Center Typ
e
Neighborhood Community Regional
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Attachment H: Stockton Fiscal Impact Analysis
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ATTACHMENT A
ATTACHMENT I:
San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
ATTACHMENT A
List of Tables
Table 1 Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits .............................................................. I-1 Table 2 Estimated Annual Reve nues and Expenditures ................................................ I-2
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table 1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Summary of Annual Surplus/Deficits (2020$)
Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Annual Fiscal Impact Summary
Prior to EIFD Allocation
Annual General Fund Revenues $10,131,000 $20,394,000 $28,056,000 $32,359,000 $37,918,000 $41,536,000 Annual General Fund Expenditures $4,169,000 $7,886,000 $10,502,000 $11,861,000 $14,093,000 $15,827,000 Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $5,962,000 $12,508,000 $17,554,000 $20,498,000 $23,825,000 $25,709,000 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,466,100) ($2,005,300) ($2,718,300) ($3,116,300) ($3,659,600) ($4,037,900) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $3,495,900 $10,502,700 $14,835,700 $17,381,700 $20,165,400 $21,671,100 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Contribution [2] ($2,466,100) ($1,303,400) ($1,291,200) ($1,480,200) ($823,400) ($908,500) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $3,495,900 $11,204,600 $16,262,800 $19,017,800 $23,001,600 $24,800,500 sum
Source: EPS.
[2] EIFD Allocation represents the portion of County property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for details.
Estimated Annual Revenues/Expenditures (Rounded)
San Joaquin
County
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY 2023-24.
Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in ca lendar year 2022)
and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table 2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Estimated Annual Revenues and Expenditures (2020$)
Item 2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060 )
Annual General Fund Revenues (Prior to EIFD Contribution) Property Tax (without EIFD Contribution) $5,213,700 $10,026,300 $13,591,500 $15,581,500 $18,298,200 $20,189,600 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF $3,002,700 $5,774,400 $7,827,600 $8,973,700 $10,538,300 $11,627,600 Property Transfer Tax $132,200 $243,400 $326,000 $368,800 $452,500 $519,900 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax $1,704,100 $4,200,700 $6,111,600 $7,210,000 $8,362,500 $8,899,800 Licenses, Permits, and Franchise $45,300 $86,900 $116,200 $131,800 $155,700 $173,700 Motor Vehicle License Fee $6,000 $10,500 $13,600 $15,100 $18,500 $21,600 Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties $26,900 $51,700 $69,100 $78,400 $92,600 $103,300 Total General Fund Revenu
e $10,130,900 $20,393,900 $28,055,600 $32,359,300 $37,918,300 $41,535,500 Annual General Fund Expenditures
General Government
Legislative & Administrative $90,000 $172,700 $231,000 $261,900 $309,400 $345,200 Finance $589,900 $1,131,500 $1,513,900 $1,715,900 $2,027,700 $2,261,900 County Counsel $5,300 $10,200 $13,600 $15,500 $18,300 $20,400 Human Resources $31,700 $60,700 $81,200 $92,100 $108,800 $121,400 Elections $65,500 $125,600 $168,000 $190,400 $225,000 $251,000 Property Management $271,300 $520,400 $696,300 $789,200 $932,600 $1,040,300 Other General $77,800 $149,200 $199,600 $226,300 $267,400 $298,300 Total General Government $1,131,500 $2,170,300 $2,903,600 $3,291,300 $3,889,200 $4,338,500 Public Protection
Judicial $887,500
$1,702,300 $2,277,600 $2,581,500 $3,050,600 $3,403,000
Police Protection $418,300 $802,200 $1,073,400 $1,216,600 $1,437,600 $1,603,700 Detention and Corrections $960,300 $1,841,900 $2,464,500 $2,793,300 $3,300,900 $3,682,200 Protective Inspection $106,100 $203,400 $272,200 $308,500 $364,600 $406,700 Other Protection $4,700 $9,000 $12,000 $13,600 $16,100 $17,900 Total Public Protection $2,376,900 $4,558,800 $6,099,700 $6,913,500 $8,169,800 $9,113,500 Health and Sanitation
Health Services $316,200 $553,800 $717,200 $792,600 $974,000 $1,137,300 Total Health and Sanitation $316,200 $553,800 $717,200 $792,600 $974,000 $1,137,300 Public Assistance
Administration - - - - - -
Aid Programs $184,600 $323,300 $418,700 $462,700 $568,600 $663,900 General Relief $11,200 $19,700 $25,500 $28,100 $34,600 $40,400 Other Assistance $74,100 $129,700 $168,000 $185,700 $228,200 $266,400 Veterans Services $3,900 $6,800 $8,800 $9,700 $11,900 $13,900 Total Public Assistanc
e $273,800 $479,500 $621,000 $686,200 $843,300 $984,600 Education
Agriculture Education $10,000 $18,000 $23,000 $25,000 $31,000 $36,000 Total Education $10,000 $18,000 $23,000 $25,000 $31,000 $36,000 Recreation
Recreation Services $55,000 $96,000 $124,000 $137,000 $168,000 $196,000 Cultural Services $6,000 $10,000 $13,000 $15,000 $18,000 $21,000 Total Recreation $61,000 $106,000 $137,000 $152,000 $186,000 $217,000 Total General Fund Expenditure
s $4,169,400 $7,886,400 $10,501,500 $11,860,600 $14,093,300 $15,826,900 EIFD Contribution [2]
Maximum Tax Rate ($2,466,100) ($2,005,300) ($2,718,300) ($3,116,300) ($3,659,600) ($4,037,900) Variable Tax Rate ($2,466,100) ($1,303,400) ($1,291,200) ($1,480,200) ($823,400) ($908,500) Net General Fund Surplus/(Deficit)
Prior to EIFD Allocation $5,961,500 $12,507,500 $17,554,100 $20,498,700 $23,825,000 $25,708,600 Net of EIFD Allocation - Maximum Ta
x $3,495,400 $10,502,200 $14,835,800 $17,382,400 $20,165,400 $21,670,700 Net of EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax $3,495,400 $11,204,100 $16,262,900 $19,018,500 $23,001,600 $24,800,100 det sum
Source: EPS.
[2] EIFD Contribution represents the portion of County property tax revenues diverted to the EIFD. Refer to Table B-3 for deta ils.
Estimated Annual Revenues/Expenditures (Rounded)
San Joaquin
County
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the dis trict in FY 2023-24.
Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior Janu ary 1. Thus, the
initial phase of this analysis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimat ed in calendar
year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phase s include 5-year
development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 20
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDICES:
Appendix A: General Assumptions
Appendix B: General Fund Revenue Analysis
Appendix C: General Fu nd Expenditure Analysis
Appendix D: Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX A:
General Assumptions
T
able A-1 General Assumptions ...................................................... I-3 Table A-2 Cumulative La nd Use Projections ...................................... I-4 Table A-3 Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and
Building Square Footage .................................................. I-5 Table A-4 Cumulative Estimate d Population and Employees ................ I-6 Table A-5 Land Us e Assumptions .................................................... I-7
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
General Assumptions
Item Assumption
General Assumptions
Fiscal Year of Budget Analysis [1] FY 2020-21
Base Fiscal Year of Potential EIFD [2] FY 2022-23
General Demographic Characteristics
San Joaquin County
Population [3] 773,632
Employees [4] 282,200
San Joaquin County Persons Served [5] 914,732
gen assumps
Source: California Department of Finance; EDD; U.S. Census LED; EPS. [5] Persons served is defined as total population plus half of total employees. Used to estimate specific revenues and ex
penditures that are assumed to be impacted by growth in resident and employment populations and to avoid double counting of employ
ees who reside in the City.
San Joaquin
County
[1] Reflects the County
of San Joaquin Fiscal Year 2020-21 adopted budget. Revenues and ex
penditures are in 2020 dollars. This analysis does not reflect changes in values resulting from inflation or appreciation.
[3] Based on population estimates from the California Department of Finance (DOF) data for January
1, 2020.
[4] US Census Onthemap.ces.census.gov estimat ed a total of 251,730 j obs in San Joaquin County, CA
in 2018. California EDD reports an annual average growth rate of 0.95% since 2018 for the Stockton-Lodi MSA. EPS adj
usted the 2018 employment figure to arrive at a 2020 employment estimate using this grow
th rate and further increased the total by 10% to account for self-employed w
orkers. Estimate is rounded to the nearest hundred employees. [2] This analy
sis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the district in FY
2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on tax
able assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analy
sis includes estimated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar y
ear 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-y
ear development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Cumulative Land Use Projections
Land Use
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Dwelling
Units
Building
Sq. Ft.
Development Projections in Current City Limits [2]
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 1,946 - 3,169 - 4,236 - 4,793 - 6,483 - 8,004 - High Density Residential 956 - 1,716 - 2,094 - 2,287 - 2,287 - 2,287 - Subtotal Residential 2,902 - 4,885 - 6,330 - 7,080 - 8,770 - 10,291 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 1,691,971 - 4,185,528 - 5,750,736 - 6,504,146 - 7,139,848 - 7,356,351 Office Commercial [5] - 832,363 - 2,023,383 - 2,598,924 - 2,937,792 - 3,153,260 - 3,210,967 Industrial - 6,853,240 - 11,328,609 - 14,357,821 - 16,465,698 - 17,521,923 - 17,521,923 Subtotal Nonresidential - 9,377,573 - 17,537,520 - 22,707,480 - 25,907,636 - 27,815,031 - 28,089,241 Total All Land Uses 2,902 9,377,573 4,885 17,537,520 6,330 22,707,480 7,080 25,907,636 8,770 27,815,031 10,291 28,089,241 Development Projections in Annexation Areas [2]
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 276 - 691 - 860 - 860 - 860 - 860 - Subtotal Residential 276 - 691 - 860 - 860 - 860 - 860 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 189,953 - 677,218 - 1,391,530 - 1,944,530 - 2,685,530 - 3,090,630 Industrial - - - - - 1,131,402 - 1,885,670 - 1,885,670 - 1,885,670 Subtotal Nonresidential - 189,953 - 677,218 - 2,522,932 - 3,830,200 - 4,571,200 - 4,976,300 Total All Land Uses 276 189,953 691 677,218 860 2,522,932 860 3,830,200 860 4,571,200 860 4,976,300 Total San Joaquin County Development Projections
Residential Land Uses [4]
Low Density Residential 2,221 - 3,859 - 5,095 - 5,652 - 7,342 - 8,863 - High Density Residential 956 - 1,716 - 2,094 - 2,287 - 2,287 - 2,287 - Subtotal Residential 3,177 - 5,575 - 7,189 - 7,939 - 9,629 - 11,150 - Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial [5] - 1,881,924 - 4,862,746 - 7,142,266 - 8,448,676 - 9,825,378 - 10,446,981 Office Commercial [5] - 832,363 - 2,023,383 - 2,598,924 - 2,937,792 - 3,153,260 - 3,210,967 Industrial - 6,853,240 - 11,328,609 - 15,489,223 - 18,351,368 - 19,407,593 - 19,407,593 Subtotal Nonresidential - 9,567,526 - 18,214,738 - 25,230,412 - 29,737,836 - 32,386,231 - 33,065,541 Total All Land Uses 3,177 9,567,526 5,575 18,214,738 7,189 25,230,412 7,939 29,737,836 9,629 32,386,231 11,150 33,065,541
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE lu
Source: San Joaquin County; City of Manteca; City of Lathrop; City of Stockton; LWA; EPS. [4] For purposes of this analysis, residential units were categorized as owner- or renter-occupied based on assumed density. [5] Nonresidential commercial land use projections provided by the applicable City reflect a general commercial land use desig nation. This analysis assumes general commercial will comprise both retail and office land uses. EPS determined a preliminary estimated allocation of retail and office space based on the existing proportion of retail and office space in each City, the City's current General Plan, and the proposed land use plans of anticipated development projects within the EIFD boundary. [3] Includes development projections in the future Stockton annexation area, the future Manteca Annexation area, and the Oakwo od Shores and South Lathrop developments.
[2] Development projections include development projections in incorporated cities as were provided by LWA based on land use d ata provided by the Cities of Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton as of February, 2020.
San Joaquin
County
Cumulative Dwelling Units/Square Footage
2025 [1] 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
[1] This analysis assumes the EIFD will be formed in FY 2022-23 (Base Year) with the first year of revenue accruing to the dis trict in FY 2023-24. Secured and unsecured tax rolls for a fiscal year are based on taxable assessed values with a lien date of the prior January 1. Thus, the initial phase of this analysis includes es timated development occurring in July-December 2022 (50% of development estimated in calendar year 2022) and development occurring in full calendar years for the remainder of the phase (2023-2025). Subsequ ent phases include 5-year development periods for development occurring from 2026 through 2040 and 10-year development periods from 2041 through 2060.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Cumulative Occupied Dwelling Units and Building Square Footage Vacancy
Land Use Rate [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses
Low Density Residential 6.0% 1,829 2,979 3,982 4,505 6,094 7,523 High Density Residential 6.0% 899 1,613 1,968 2,150 2,150 2,150 Subtotal Residential 2,728 4,592 5,950 6,655 8,244 9,673 Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 1,565,073 3,871,613 5,319,430 6,016,335 6,604,359 6,804,624 Office Commercial 7.5% 769,935 1,871,629 2,404,004 2,717,458 2,916,766 2,970,145 Industrial 7.5% 6,339,247 10,478,964 13,280,985 15,230,771 16,207,779 16,207,779 Subtotal Nonresidential 8,674,255 16,222,206 21,004,419 23,964,563 25,728,904 25,982,548 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Residential Land Uses
Low Density Residential 6.0% 259 649 808 808 808 808
Subtotal Residential 259 649 808 808 808 808
Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 175,707 626,427 1,287,165 1,798,690 2,484,115 2,858,833 Industrial 7.5% - - 1,046,547 1,744,245 1,744,245 1,744,245 Subtotal Nonresidential 175,707 626,427 2,333,712 3,542,935 4,228,360 4,603,078 Total San Joaquin County Development Projections
Residential Land Uses
Low Density Residential 6.0% 2,088 3,628 4,790 5,313 6,902 8,332 High Density Residential 6.0% 899 1,613 1,968 2,150 2,150 2,150 Subtotal Residential 2,987 5,241 6,758 7,463 9,052 10,481
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Nonresidential Land Uses
Retail Commercial 7.5% 1,740,779 4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457 Office Commercial 7.5% 769,935 1,871,629 2,404,004 2,717,458 2,916,766 2,970,145 Industrial 7.5% 6,339,247 10,478,964 14,327,532 16,975,016 17,952,024 17,952,024 Subtotal Nonresidential 8,849,962 16,848,633 23,338,131 27,507,498 29,957,264 30,585,625
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
occupied
Source: California Department of Finance; San Joaquin County; Costar; LWA; EPS. [1] For details pertaining to vacancy rate assumptions, refer to Table A-5.
Occupied Dwelling Units/Building Square Feet
San Joaquin
County
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
Occupied Dwelling Units
Occupied Building Square Feet
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Cumulative Estimated Population and Employees
Assumption
Land Use [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Project Residents
Residential Land Uses PPH
Low Density Residential 3.30 6,891 11,972 15,806 17,534 22,776 27,494 High Density Residential 2.50 2,247 4,033 4,921 5,374 5,374 5,374 Subtotal Residential 9,138 16,005 20,727 22,908 28,150 32,868 Total Resident Population 9,138 16,005 20,727 22,908 28,150 32,868 Project Employees
Nonresidential Land Uses Sq. Ft. per Emp.
Retail Commercial 400 4,352 11,245 16,516 19,538 22,721 24,159 Office Commercial 400 1,925 4,679 6,010 6,794 7,292 7,425 Industrial 2,000 3,170 5,239 7,164 8,488 8,976 8,976
Subtotal Nonresidential 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560 Total Employee Population 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560 Project Persons Served 13,862 26,587 35,572 40,318 47,645 53,148 pop
Source: California Department of Finance; EPS.
[1] For persons per household and square feet per employee assumptions, refer to Table A-5.
Estimated Population/Employees
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table A-5
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Land Use Assumptions
Persons per
Estimated Property Household/
Assessed Turnove r Vacancy Sq. Ft. per
Land Use Value [1] Rate [2] Rate [3] Employee [4]
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [5] $510,427 14.3% 6.0% 3.30
High Density Residential $200,000 6.7% 6.0% 2.50
Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400
Office Commercial $250 5.0% 7.5% 400
Industrial $100 5.0% 7.5% 2,000
lu assum
Source: The Gregory Group; Costar; Colliers, International; CBRE; US Census; EPS. [5] Estimated Countywide assessed value per unit reflects the weighted average, at buildout, of the assessed values per unit assumptions for Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton. The assessed value per unit for low density residential is assumed to be $425,000 in the City of Stockton, $500,000 in the City of Manteca, and $525,000 in the City of Lathrop. The assumption varies in each phase based on varying amounts of low density residential development in each jurisdiction by phase.
San Joaquin
County
[1] Residential assessed values are based on sales data of comparable products as obtained through The Gregory Group for the last 4 quarters (Q1 2020 through Q4 2020). Nonresidential values per square foot based on comparable transaction data for transactions made in San Joaquin County since 2005 obtained from Costar, data accessed on March 25, 2021. [2] Owner-occupied residential assumed to turn over once every 7 years and renter-occupied residential is assumed to turn over once every 15 years.
Nonresidential uses are assumed to turn over once every 20 years. [3] Residential vacancy rates obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates, for San Joaquin County. Commercial and industrial vacancy rates based on Q3 2019 Costar and Q3 2019 Colliers International market reports for the Stockton/Modesto area. [4] Persons per household figures obtained from the US Census American Community Survey, 2018 estimates. Square feet per employee values are based on empirical research for proposed land uses.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX B:
General Fund Revenue Analysis
Tab
le B-1 Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................... I-8 Table B-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues ......................... I-9 Table B-3 Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2 pages) .......... I-10 Table B-4 Real Property Transfer Tax ............................................ I-12 Table B-5 Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue ...... I-13 Table B-5A Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method ............................. I-14 Table B-5B Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from
Onsite Nonresidential .................................................... I-15
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21
Budgeted Budgeted
Estimating Case Study General Fund Off setting Net General Service Revenue Item Procedure Reference R evenues [1] Revenue Fund Revenues P opulation [2] Multiplier General Fund Revenues
Property Tax Case Study Table B-3 $168,865,867 ($190,792) $168,675,075 N/A - Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Case Study Table B-3 $95,777,111 -
$95,777,111 N/A -
Property Transfer Tax Case Study Table B-4 $5,016,651 - $5,016,651 N/A -
Sales and Use Tax [3] - $22,156,588 -
$22,156,588 N/A -
Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $67,134,327 - $67,134,327 N/A -
Transient Occupancy Tax [4] - $510,000 ($510,000) $0 N/A - Licenses, Permits, and Franchise Persons Served - $8,598,700 ($5,609,526) $2,989,174 914,732 $3.27 Intergovernmental Revenue [4] - $495,324,122 ($556,335,941) ($61,011,819) N/A - Motor Vehicle License Fee Per Capita - $509,137 -
$509,137 773,632 $0.66
Current Service Charges [4] - $45,015,682 ($44,355,867) $659,815 N/A - Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties Persons Served - $5,344,414 ($3,566,648) $1,777,766 914,732 $1.94 Use of Money and Property [4] - $6,471,039 ($946,039) $5,525,000 N/A - Other Taxes - Racehorse [4] - $2,000 -
$2,000 N/A -
Miscellaneous Revenues [4] - $2,319,268 ($2,308,468) $10,800 N/A - Other [4] - $57,178,862 ($68,647,404) ($11,468,542) N/A - Subtotal
General Fund Revenue $980,223,768 ($682,470,685) $297,753,083 Contingency Fund [4] - $4,974,834 ($4,974,834) $0 N/A - Total General Fund Revenue $985,198,602 ($687,445,519) $297,753,083 rev pro
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS. [1] I
ncludes midyear budget adjustments as presented to the County Board of Supervisors on February 23, 2021. [2] R
efer to Table A-1.
[3] I
t is assumed that all sales tax revenue generated by the project will be contained within City boundaries; therefore, no sales and use tax is calculated in this analysis. [4] T
his revenue source is not expected to be affected by anticipated development and therefore is not evaluated in this analy sis.
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Estimated Annual General Fund Revenues (2020$)
Case Study
Revenue Category Reference 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) General Fund Revenues
Property Tax (without EIFD Contribution) Table B-3 $5,213,691 $10,026,311 $13,591,493 $15,581,504 $18,298,205 $20,189,567 Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Table B-3 $3,002,700 $5,774,400 $7,827,600 $8,973,700 $10,538,300 $11,627,600 Property Transfer Tax Table B-4 $132,200 $243,400 $326,000 $368,800 $452,500 $519,900 Prop. 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Table B-5 $1,704,067 $4,200,671 $6,111,610 $7,209,969 $8,362,507 $8,899,797 Licenses, Permits, and Franchise - $45,300 $86,900 $116,200 $131,800 $155,700 $173,700 Motor Vehicle License Fee - $6,000 $10,500 $13,600 $15,100 $18,500 $21,600 Fines, Forfeitures and Penalties - $26,900 $51,700 $69,100 $78,400 $92,600 $103,300 Total General Fund Revenue $10,130,859 $20,393,881 $28,055,604 $32,359,273 $37,918,311 $41,535,464 EIFD Contribution - Maximum Tax Rate
Less EIFD Contribution ($2,466,076) ($2,005,262) ($2,718,299) ($3,116,301) ($3,659,641) ($4,037,913) Net General Fund Revenues $7,664,783 $18,388,619 $25,337,305 $29,242,972 $34,258,670 $37,497,551 EIFD Contribution - Variable Tax Rate
Less EIFD Contribution ($2,466,076) ($1,303,420) ($1,291,192) ($1,480,243) ($823,419) ($908,531) Net General Fund Revenues $7,664,783 $19,090,461 $26,764,412 $30,879,030 $37,094,892 $40,626,934 rev
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.
Estimated Annual Revenue (Rounded)
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Assessed Value of New Development Table D-2
Assessed Value of New Development in Current City Limits a $2,483,977,808 $4,618,659,097 $6,067,767,380 $6,872,949,747 $8,078,614,747 $8,945,692,247 Assessed Value of New Development in Annexation Area b $185,363,250 $514,679,500 $890,897,700 $1,104,574,500 $1,289,824,500 $1,391,099,500 Total Assessed Value c = a + b $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.0000%
Property Tax Revenue in Current City Limits d = a * 1.00% $24,839,778 $46,186,591 $60,677,674 $68,729,497 $80,786,147 $89,456,922 Property Tax Revenue in Annexation Areas e = b * 1.00% $1,853,633 $5,146,795 $8,908,977 $11,045,745 $12,898,245 $13,910,995 Total Property Tax Revenue f = d + e $26,693,411 $51,333,386 $69,586,651 $79,775,242 $93,684,392 $103,367,917 Estimated Property Tax Allocation
Estimated Property Tax Allocation in Current City Limits [1] San Joaquin County General Fund 19.5318% g = d * 19.53% $4,851,644 $9,021,051 $11,851,414 $13,424,076 $15,778,951 $17,472,506 Other Agencies/ERAF 80.4682% h = d * 80.47% $19,988,134 $37,165,540 $48,826,260 $55,305,421 $65,007,196 $71,984,417 Property Tax Allocation in Annexation Areas [2]
San Joaquin County General Fund 27.3226% i = e * 27.32% $362,047 $1,005,259 $1,740,079 $2,157,428 $2,519,253 $2,717,061 Other Agencies/ERAF 72.6774% j = e * 72.68% $1,491,586 $4,141,536 $7,168,898 $8,888,317 $10,378,992 $11,193,934 Subtotal San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax k = g + i $5,213,691 $10,026,311 $13,591,493 $15,581,504 $18,298,205 $20,189,567 EIFD Allocation - Maximum Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 47.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,466,076 $2,005,262 $2,718,299 $3,116,301 $3,659,641 $4,037,913 Net San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $2,747,615 $8,021,048 $10,873,195 $12,465,203 $14,638,564 $16,151,654 EIFD Allocation - Variable Tax Rate
EIFD Allocation Percentage [3] l 47.3% 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% EIFD Allocation m = k * l $2,466,076 $1,303,420 $1,291,192 $1,480,243 $823,419 $908,531 Net San Joaquin County General Fund Property Tax n - k - m $2,747,615 $8,722,890 $12,300,301 $14,101,261 $17,474,786 $19,281,037 Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Annual Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
Assumption/
Item Source Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Estimated Property Tax Revenues (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
Property Tax In-Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Countywide Assessed Value [4] o $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 $85,144,874,422 Total Assessed Value of Project p $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747 Total Assessed Value q = o + p $87,814,215,480 $90,278,213,019 $92,103,539,502 $93,122,398,669 $94,513,313,669 $95,481,666,169 Percent Change in AV r = p / o 3.14% 6.03% 8.17% 9.37% 11.00% 12.14% Property Tax In-Lieu of VLF [5] $95,777,111 s = r * $95,777,111 $3,002,668 $5,774,350 $7,827,610 $8,973,696 $10,538,298 $11,627,571 prop tax
Source: San Joaquin County; San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS. [2] Refer to Table D-1 for details.
[4] Reflects Assessed Valuation for FY 2020-21. Includes countywide secured, unsecured, homeowner exemption, and public utili ty roll.
[5] Property tax in-lieu of VLF amount derived from the San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Annual Budget. Refer to Table B-1 for de tails.
[1] Reflects the average property tax allocation to the County General Fund for all TRAs within the 200-year flood plain that are within the boundaries of the Cities of Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockton.
TRAs include: 002-000, 002-060, 002-063, 002-064, 002-087, 002-088, 003-159, 003-206, 003-238, 003-240, 003-289, 003-312, 003463, 003-464, 007-000, 007-002, 007-007, 007-008, 007-010, 007-012, 007-013, 007-014, 007-022, 007-029, 007-032, 007-041, 007-043, 007-046, 007-047, 007-048, 007-049, 007-071, and 007-074.
[3] EIFD allocation percentage represents the portion of property tax revenues to be diverted to the EIFD. Alocation percentag es are negotiated allocation amounts based on discussions between the County, the Cities of Lathrop, Stockton, and Manteca, and Project Consultants. Reflects the Initial Base Rate for the period ending 2 029 and the Maximum Tax Allocation Rate for 2030 and beyond.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Real Property Transfer Tax (2020$)
Assumption
/
Item Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Rate per $1,000 of AV $0.55
Project Assessed Value Table D-2
Owner-Occupied Residential $1,114,245,500 $1,935,745,500 $2,555,645,500 $2,838,370,500 $3,725,620,500 $4,524,145,500 Renter-Occupied Residential $191,200,000 $343,200,000 $418,800,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 Nonresidential $1,363,895,558 $2,854,393,097 $3,984,219,580 $4,681,753,747 $5,185,418,747 $5,355,246,247 Total Assessed Value $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747 Turnover Rate
Owner-Occupied Residential 14.30%
Renter-Occupied Residential 6.70%
Nonresidential 5.00%
Annual Transfer Tax Revenue [1]
Owner-Occupied Residential $87,635 $152,246 $201,002 $223,238 $293,020 $355,824 Renter-Occupied Residential $7,046 $12,647 $15,433 $16,855 $16,855 $16,855 Nonresidential $37,507 $78,496 $109,566 $128,748 $142,599 $147,269 Total Annual Transfer Tax Revenue $132,188 $243,389 $326,000 $368,841 $452,474 $519,949 transfer
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor Assessor; San Joaquin County; EPS [1] Formula for Transfer Tax = Assessed Value/$1,000 * Rate per $1,000 of Assessed Value * Turnover rate.
Estimated Annual Property Transfer Tax Revenue (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2020$) Item Formula 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales
Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support (Residents and Employees) a Table B-5A $59,945,710 $109,328,494 $144,085,582 $161,240,158 $195,743,518 $224,702,686 Annual Taxable Sales from Onsite Commercial Uses b Table B-5B $379,767,600 $974,602,038 $1,432,939,055 $1,699,202,239 $1,962,096,751 $2,071,778,709 Annual Taxable Sales from Total Net New Development c = a + b $439,713,310 $1,083,930,532 $1,577,024,637 $1,860,442,397 $2,157,840,269 $2,296,481,395 County Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue
County Prop 172 Sales Tax Rate d 0.50%
County Share of Prop 172 Revenue [1] e 95.00%
Adjustment for Unincorporated County Costs [2] f 81.59% County Prop 172 Public Safety Sales Tax Revenue g = c * d * e * f $1,704,067 $4,200,671 $6,111,610 $7,209,969 $8,362,507 $8,899,797 sales
Source: San Joaquin County; California State Board of Equalization; EPS. [2] Represents an adjustment made to account for the portion of Proposition 172 revenues allocated to services provided only t o the unincorporated portions of the County.
Source/
Assumptions
Annual Sales Tax Revenue
[1] Provided by San Joaquin County.
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5A
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from Proposed Development, Market Support Method (2020$) Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support Assumption 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Annual Taxable Sales from New Residents
Residential Development Table A-3
Low Density Residential 2,088 3,628 4,790 5,313 6,902 8,332 High Density Residential 899 1,613 1,968 2,150 2,150 2,150 Total Residential Development 2,987 5,241 6,758 7,463 9,052 10,481 Taxable Retail Expenditures per Household [1]
Low Density Residential $24,000 $50,116,138 $87,069,418 $114,953,578 $127,519,498 $165,645,898 $199,959,658 High Density Residential $15,000 $13,479,600 $24,195,600 $29,525,400 $32,246,700 $32,246,700 $32,246,700 Total Taxable Retail Expenditures $63,595,738 $111,265,018 $144,478,978 $159,766,198 $197,892,598 $232,206,358 Estimated Countywide Capture from New Households [2] 80% $50,876,590 $89,012,014 $115,583,182 $127,812,958 $158,314,078 $185,765,086 Estimated Taxable Sales Inside Project Area 50% $25,438,295 $44,506,007 $57,791,591 $63,906,479 $79,157,039 $92,882,543 Estimated Taxable Sales Outside Project Area 50% $25,438,295 $44,506,007 $57,791,591 $63,906,479 $79,157,039 $92,882,543 Annual Taxable Sales from New Employment
Taxable Sales from New Employment
Employees Table A-4 9,447 21,163 29,690 34,820 38,989 40,560 Average Daily Taxable Sales per New Employee $10.00
Work Days per Year 240
Taxable Sales from New Employees [3] 50%
Total Taxable Sales from New Employees $11,336,400 $25,395,600 $35,628,000 $41,784,000 $46,786,800 $48,672,000 Estimated Citywide Capture from New Employees [2] 90% $9,069,120 $20,316,480 $28,502,400 $33,427,200 $37,429,440 $38,937,600 Estimated Taxable Sales Inside Project Area 70% $6,348,384 $14,221,536 $19,951,680 $23,399,040 $26,200,608 $27,256,320 Estimated Taxable Sales Outside Project Area 30% $2,720,736 $6,094,944 $8,550,720 $10,028,160 $11,228,832 $11,681,280 Total Annual Taxable Sales from Market Support $59,945,710 $109,328,494 $144,085,582 $161,240,158 $195,743,518 $224,702,686 Taxable City Sales Inside Project Area $31,786,679 $58,727,543 $77,743,271 $87,305,519 $105,357,647 $120,138,863 Taxable City Sales Outside Project Area $28,159,031 $50,600,951 $66,342,311 $73,934,639 $90,385,871 $104,563,823 sales a
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; San Joaquin County; EPS. [1] For details pertaining to household taxable expenditure assumptions, refer to Table D-3. [2] Represents the portion of household and employee retail expenditures estimated to take place in San Joaquin County. [3] Taxable sales from employees discounted by 50% to account for employees who also are residents.
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
Occupied Dwelling Units
Taxable Retail Expenditures
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table B-5B
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales from On-Site Nonresidential (2020$) Annual
Taxable Sales
Item per Sq. Ft. [1] 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) Taxable Sales from Commercial Development
Taxable Sales Generating Occupied
Commercial Development Square Feet
Retail Commercial 1,740,779 4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457 Total 1,740,779
4,498,040 6,606,596 7,815,025 9,088,474 9,663,457
Annual Taxable Sales from
On-Site Commercial Development
Retail $240 $417,787,076 $1,079,529,575 $1,585,582,941 $1,875,605,991 $2,181,233,835 $2,319,229,701 Total $417,787,076
$1,079,529,575 $1,585,582,941 $1,875,605,991 $2,181,233,835 $2,319,229,701 Less Total Annual Taxable Sales from
Market Support (in the Project) [2] $31,786,679 $58,727,543 $77,743,271 $87,305,519 $105,357,647 $120,138,863 Annual Sales Less Market Support $386,000,397 $1,020,802,032 $1,507,839,670 $1,788,300,472 $2,075,876,188 $2,199,090,838 Shift from
Existing Retail
Less Shift of Sales from Existing Regional and
Community Retail to the Project [3] 10% $41,778,708 $107,952,958 $158,558,294 $187,560,599 $218,123,383 $231,922,970 Total Taxable Sales from Retail Commercial Uses $344,221,690 $912,849,074 $1,349,281,376 $1,600,739,873 $1,857,752,804 $1,967,167,868 Occupied Nonretail Commercial Uses
Office Commercial 769,935 1,871,629 2,404,004 2,717,458 2,916,766 2,970,145 Industrial 6,339,247 10,478,964 14,327,532 16,975,016 17,952,024 17,952,024 Total 7,109,182
12,350,593 16,731,536 19,692,473 20,868,789 20,922,168
Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail
Commercial Uses
Office Commercial $5 $3,849,677 $9,358,146 $12,020,021 $13,587,288 $14,583,828 $14,850,723 Industrial $5 $31,696,234 $52,394,818 $71,637,658 $84,875,078 $89,760,119 $89,760,119 Total $35,545,911
$61,752,964 $83,657,679 $98,462,367 $104,343,947 $104,610,842 Total Taxable Sales from Nonretail Commercial Development $35,545,911 $61,752,964 $83,657,679 $98,462,367 $104,343,947 $104,610,842 Total Nonresidential Taxable Sales $379,767,600 $974,602,038 $1,432,939,055 $1,699,202,239 $1,962,096,751 $2,071,778,709 sales b
Source: Costar; Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS. [2] Estimated in Table B-5A.
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales (2020$)
[3] Represents a discount factor to account for taxable sales transactions that may shift from the cities' existing Regional- and Community-serving retail
centers to those included in the Project.
[1] See Table D-4 for the taxable retail sales calculation. All retail is assumed to be community serving retail. Sales per sq uare foot for the Retail
space is based on average total sales per square foot figure derived from BizMiner and eMarketer data (escalated to 2020$ ) and converts total sales to
taxable sales per square foot to account for a small portion of non-taxable goods sold.
San Joaquin
County
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
Occupied Building Square Feet
Total Taxable Sales
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX C:
General Fund Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le C-1 Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on
City of Lathrop FY 2020-21 Budget ................................. I-16 Table C-2 Estimated Annual General Fund Expendit ures ................... I-17
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin County
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on San Joaquin County FY 2020-21 Budget (2020$) FY 2020-21 FY 2020-21 Population
Estimating Budgeted Less Offsetting Net County or Persons FY 2020-21 Adjustment Net FY 2020-21 Item Procedure Expenditures Revenue Expenditures Served Avg. Cos t Factor [1] Avg. Cos t
General Fund
General Government
Legislative & Administrative Persons Served $6,227,194 ($286,105) $5,941,089 914,732 $6.49 100% $6.49 Finance Persons Served $54,203,124 ($15,273,674) $38,929,450 914,732 $42.56 100% $42.56 County Counsel Persons Served $536,073 ($185,262) $350,811 914,732 $0.38 100% $0.38 Human Resources Persons Served $2,951,843 ($862,982) $2,088,861 914,732 $2.28 100% $2.28 Elections Persons Served $9,613,575 ($5,293,315) $4,320,260 914,732 $4.72 100% $4.72 Property Management Persons Served $18,563,221 ($658,989) $17,904,232 914,732 $19.57 100% $19.57 Economic Promotion [3] $419,781 ($510,000) ($90,219) N/A N/A 100% N/A Other General Persons Served $7,128,467 ($1,994,885) $5,133,582 914,732 $5.61 100% $5.61 Total General Government $99,643,278 ($25,065,212) $74,578,066 Public Protection
Judicial Persons
Served $99,942,302 ($41,373,427) $58,568,875 914,732 $64.03 100% $64.03 Police Protection [2]
Countywide Police Protection Persons Served $28,852,310 ($1,250,807) $27,601,503 914,732 $30.17 100% $30.17 Unincorporated County Police Protection [3] $64,810,501 ($35,937,052) $28,873,449 N/A N/A 100% N/A Detention and Corrections Persons Served $125,277,743 ($61,904,073) $63,373,670 914,732 $69.28 100% $69.28 Flood Control Persons Served $670,000 ($670,000) $0 914,732 - 100% - Protective Inspection Persons Served $18,678,578 ($11,679,174) $6,999,404 914,732 $7.65 100% $7.65 Other Protection Persons Served $8,227,084 ($7,918,171) $308,913 914,732 $0.34 100% $0.34 Total Public Protection $346,458,518 ($160,732,704) $185,725,81 4 Public Ways and Facilities [3] $40,000 ($40,000) $0 N/A N/A 100% N/A Health and Sanitation
Health Services Per Capita $96,285,002 ($69,516,326) $26,768,676 773,632 $34.60 100% $34.60 Sanitation Per Capita $9,000 ($9,000) $0 773,632 - 100% - Total Health and Sanitation $96,294,002 ($69,525,326) $26,768,676 Public Assistance
Administration Per Capita $190,949,113 ($190,949,113) $0 773,632 - 100% - Aid Programs Per Capita $215,832,666 ($200,206,142) $15,626,524 773,632 $20.20 100% $20.20 General Relief Per Capita $950,000 $0 $950,000 773,632 $1.23 100% $1.23 Other Assistance Per Capita $39,965,240 ($33,695,007) $6,270,233 773,632 $8.10 100% $8.10 Veterans Services Per Capita $524,873 ($197,210) $327,663 773,632 $0.42 100% $0.42 Total Public Assistance $448,221,892 ($425,047,472) $23,174,420 Education
Agriculture Education Per Capita $846,913 $0 $846,913 773,632 $1.09 100% $1.09 Total Education $846,913 $0 $846,913
Recreation
Recreation Services Per Capita $6,678,208 ($2,059,971) $4,618,237 773,632 $5.97 100% $5.97 Cultural Services Per Capita $495,550 $0 $495,550 773,632 $0.64 100% $0.64 Total Recreation $7,173,758 ($2,059,971) $5,113,787
Contingency Reserve $816,330 ($4,974,834) ($4,158,504) N/A N/A 100% N/A Total General Fund Expenditures $999,494,691 ($687,445,519) $312,049,172 exp pro
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; San Joaquin County Administrator; EPS. [1] An adjustment factor may be used to reflect the fact that new employees may not increase certain General Fund department e xpenditures at a 1:1 ratio. This analysis does not assume an adjustment.
San Joaquin
County
[2] A majority of the police protection budget serves the unincorporated County population only. This analysis excludes this p ortion of the budget and only accounts for countywide cost impacts. [3] These cost categories serve the unincorporated County population only and have been excluded from the analysis.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table C-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Annual General Fund Expenditures (2020$)
Expenditure Category 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060) General Fund
General Government
Legislative & Administrative $90,029 $172,677 $231,036 $261,861 $309,446 $345,191 Finance $589,922 $1,131,477 $1,513,884 $1,715,866 $2,027,670 $2,261,889 County Counsel $5,316 $10,196 $13,642 $15,462 $18,272 $20,383 Human Resources $31,654 $60,712 $81,231 $92,069 $108,800 $121,368 Elections $65,468 $125,567 $168,006 $190,421 $225,024 $251,017 Property Management $271,314 $520,383 $696,258 $789,152 $932,555 $1,040,276 Other General $77,792 $149,207 $199,634 $226,269 $267,386 $298,273 Total General Government $1,131,495 $2,170,219 $2,903,692 $3,291,102 $3,889,153 $4,338,396 Public Protection
Judicial $887,530
$1,702,292 $2,277,620 $2,581,499 $3,050,604 $3,402,984
Police Protection $418,263 $802,232 $1,073,364 $1,216,572 $1,437,645 $1,603,710 Detention and Corrections $960,340 $1,841,943 $2,464,468 $2,793,277 $3,300,865 $3,682,154 Protective Inspection $106,066 $203,436 $272,192 $308,508 $364,569 $406,681 Other Protection $4,681 $8,978 $12,013 $13,616 $16,090 $17,949 Total Public Protection $2,376,881 $4,558,882 $6,099,658 $6,913,472 $8,169,773 $9,113,478 Health and Sanitation
Health Services $316,187 $553,794 $717,181 $792,647 $974,027 $1,137,276 Total Health and Sanitation $316,187 $553,794 $717,181 $792,647 $974,027 $1,137,276 Public Assistance
Administration - - - - - -
Aid Programs $184,578 $323,284 $418,663 $462,717 $568,599 $663,898 General Relief $11,221 $19,654 $25,452 $28,130 $34,567 $40,361 Other Assistance $74,063 $129,719 $167,991 $185,668 $228,154 $266,393 Veterans Services $3,870 $6,779 $8,779 $9,702 $11,923 $13,921 Total Public Assistance $273,732 $479,435 $620,885 $686,217 $843,243 $984,573 Education
Agriculture Education $10,004 $17,521 $22,690 $25,078 $30,816 $35,981 Total Education $10,004 $17,521 $22,690 $25,078 $30,816 $35,981 Recreation
Recreation Services $54,550 $95,543 $123,731 $136,751 $168,043 $196,207 Cultural Services $5,853 $10,252 $13,277 $14,674 $18,031 $21,054 Total Recreation $60,403 $105,795 $137,008 $151,424 $186,074 $217,261 Total Annual General Fund Expenditures $4,168,701 $7,885,646 $10,501,114 $11,859,939 $14,093,087 $15,826,964 exp
Source: San Joaquin County Fiscal Year 2020-21 Approved Annual Budget; EPS.
Estimated Annual Expenditure
San Joaquin
County
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
APPENDIX D:
Supporting Tables for
Revenue and Expenditure Analysis
Tab
le D-1 Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for
Annexation Area (2 pages) ............................................ I-18 Table D-2 Cumulative Asse ssed Valuation ...................................... I-20 Table D-3 Estimated Average Annu al Household Income .................. I-21 Table D-4 Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet ................. I-22
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entity TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-100 TRA 102-121 Subject to Detachment
10001 County General 22.29650% 22.30610% 20.32600% 20.29360% 19.80000% 22.38190% 10527 Road District 1 4.26040% 4.26030% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 10527 Road District 5 0.00000% 0.00000% 3.97920% 3.97840% 3.87760% 4.26700% 14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire 0.00000% 0.00000% 8.83690% 8.84610% 8.62190% 0.00000% 14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire 9.60300% 9.60300% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 9.45470% City General Fund 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% Subtotal 36.15990% 36.16940% 33.14210% 33.11810% 32.29950% 36.10360% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library 1.80010% 1.80010% 1.63940% 1.63910% 1.59760% 1.80310% 12601 Manteca Unified Schools 29.58380% 29.58380% 26.94230% 26.93720% 26.25470% 29.62960% 13001 S.J. Delta Comm College 4.00510% 4.00510% 3.64750% 3.64670% 3.55440% 4.01150% 13201 County Office Of Education 1.43850% 1.42890% 1.28960% 1.31780% 1.26400% 1.38930% 16001 Sjc Flood Control 0.17560% 0.17570% 0.16000% 0.15990% 0.15580% 0.17590% 21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement 0.78840% 0.78840% 0.71800% 0.71790% 0.69960% 0.78940% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 0.00000% 0.00000% 5.41160% 5.41660% 0.00000% 0.00000% 14901 Lathrop Manteca Fire District 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 22001 Reclamation District #17 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 5.27940% 0.00000% 25301 CSA No. 4 Lathrop 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 0.00000% 1.54290% 0.00000% 41100 ERAF 26.04860% 26.04860% 27.04950% 27.04670% 27.35210% 26.09760% Subtotal 63.84010% 63.83060% 66.85790% 66.88190% 67.70050% 63.89640% Total 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% 100.00000% Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller. [2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreements between San Joaquin County and the Cities of Stockton, Lathrop, and Mantec a related to
annexed areas to the City.
Existing Tax Rate Area (TRA)
Post-ERAF Distribution [1]
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-1
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations for Annexation Area Tax
Code Entity TRA 102-135 TRA 102-032 TRA 102-136 TRA 102-001 TRA 102-100 TRA 102-121 Total Subject to Detachment
10001 County General $172,291 ($796) $228,594 $14,804 $12,654 $24,209 $451,756 80% $587,765 27.32264% 10527 Road District 1 $32,921 ($152) - - - - $32,769 - - 0.00000% 10527 Road District 5 - - $44,751 $2,902 $2,478 $4,615 $54,746 - - 0.00000% 14901 Lathrop-Manteca Rural Fire - - $99,384 $6,453 $5,510 - $111,347 - - 0.00000% 14401 French Camp-Mc Kinley Rural Fire $74,205 ($343) - - - $10,226 $84,088 - - 0.00000% City General Fund - - - - - - - 20% $146,941 6.83066% Subtotal $279,417 ($1,291) $372,728 $24,160 $20,642 $39,050 $734,707 100% $734,707 34.15330% Not Subject to Detachment
10618 County Library $13,910 ($64) $18,437 $1,196 $1,021 $1,950 $36,450 - $36,450 1.69441% 12601 Manteca Unified Schools $228,602 ($1,056) $303,000 $19,651 $16,779 $32,048 $599,023 - $599,023 27.84598% 13001 S.J. Delta Comm College $30,949 ($143) $41,021 $2,660 $2,272 $4,339 $81,097 - $81,097 3.76986% 13201 County Office Of Education $11,116 ($51) $14,501 $961 $808 $1,503 $28,838 - $28,838 1.34054% 16001 Sjc Flood Control $1,357 ($6) $1,799 $117 $100 $190 $3,556 - $3,556 0.16532% 21901 Sjc Mosquito Abatement $6,092 ($28) $8,075 $524 $447 $854 $15,963 - $15,963 0.74205% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation - - $60,861 $3,951 - - $64,813 - $64,813 3.01287% 14901 Lathrop Manteca Fire District - - - - - $15,249 $15,249 - $15,249 0.70887% 22001 Reclamation District #17 - - - - - $1,507 $1,507 - $1,507 0.07004% 24601 South San Joaquin Irrigation - - - - $3,374 - $3,374 25301 CSA No. 4 Lathrop - - - - $986 - $986
41100 ERAF $201,285 ($930) $304,205 $19,731 $17,480 $28,227 $569,999 - $569,999 26.49675% Subtotal $493,311 ($2,279) $751,899 $48,791 $43,267 $85,867 $1,420,856 - $1,416,496 65.84670% Total $772,729 ($3,570) $1,124,627 $72,951 $63,909 $124,917 $2,155,562 100% $2,151,202 100.00000% TRA
Source: San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller; EPS.
[1] Provided by the San Joaquin County Auditor-Controller. [2] Based on the most recent tax-sharing agreements between San Joaquin County and the Cities of Stockton, Lathrop, and Mantec a related to annexed areas to the City.
San Joaquin
County
Gross Revenue
(FY 2019-20) [1]
Property Tax-
Sharing
Agreement [2]
Post Annexation Average
Base
Revenue
Post-ERAF
Distribution
Prepared by EPS 12/20/2021 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192015 Mossdale Tract Financing Plan\Models\San Joaquin\192015 San Joaquin fiscal m7 11.23.21 I-19
Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-2
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Cumulative Assessed Valuation (2020$)
Item 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Buildout (2060)
Development Projections in Current City Limits
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $976,370,500 $1,590,370,500 $2,125,770,500 $2,408,495,500 $3,295,745,500 $4,094,270,500 High Density Residential $200,000 $191,200,000 $343,200,000 $418,800,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 Subtotal Residential $1,167,570,500 $1,933,570,500 $2,544,570,500 $2,865,895,500 $3,753,145,500 $4,551,670,500 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $422,992,692 $1,046,381,958 $1,437,683,875 $1,626,036,408 $1,784,961,908 $1,839,087,658 Office Commercial $250 $208,090,642 $505,845,708 $649,730,875 $734,448,008 $788,315,008 $802,741,758 Industrial $100 $685,323,975 $1,132,860,930 $1,435,782,130 $1,646,569,830 $1,752,192,330 $1,752,192,330 Subtotal Nonresidential $1,316,407,308 $2,685,088,597 $3,523,196,880 $4,007,054,247 $4,325,469,247 $4,394,021,747 Total All Land Uses $2,483,977,808 $4,618,659,097 $6,067,767,380 $6,872,949,747 $8,078,614,747 $8,945,692,247 Development Projections in Annexation Areas
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 Subtotal Owner-Occupied Residential $137,875,000 $345,375,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 $429,875,000 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $47,488,250 $169,304,500 $347,882,500 $486,132,500 $671,382,500 $772,657,500 Industrial $100 - - $113,140,200 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 $188,567,000 Subtotal Nonresidential $47,488,250 $169,304,500 $461,022,700 $674,699,500 $859,949,500 $961,224,500 Total All Land Uses $185,363,250 $514,679,500 $890,897,700 $1,104,574,500 $1,289,824,500 $1,391,099,500 Total San Joaquin County Development Projections
Residential Land Uses per Unit
Low Density Residential [2] $1,114,245,500 $1,935,745,500 $2,555,645,500 $2,838,370,500 $3,725,620,500 $4,524,145,500 High Density Residential $200,000 $191,200,000 $343,200,000 $418,800,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 $457,400,000 Subtotal Residential $1,305,445,500 $2,278,945,500 $2,974,445,500 $3,295,770,500 $4,183,020,500 $4,981,545,500 Nonresidential Land Uses per Sq. Ft.
Retail Commercial $250 $470,480,942 $1,215,686,458 $1,785,566,375 $2,112,168,908 $2,456,344,408 $2,611,745,158 Office Commercial $250 $208,090,642 $505,845,708 $649,730,875 $734,448,008 $788,315,008 $802,741,758 Industrial $100 $685,323,975 $1,132,860,930 $1,548,922,330 $1,835,136,830 $1,940,759,330 $1,940,759,330 Subtotal Nonresidential $1,363,895,558 $2,854,393,097 $3,984,219,580 $4,681,753,747 $5,185,418,747 $5,355,246,247 Total All Land Uses $2,669,341,058 $5,133,338,597 $6,958,665,080 $7,977,524,247 $9,368,439,247 $10,336,791,747
TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
AV
Source: Costar; CBRE; The Gregory Group; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-5 for details.
Rounded
Value per
Unit/Sq. Ft.
[1]
Total Assessed Value (2020$)
San Joaquin
County
[2] Countywide Project assessed value is calculated as the sum of the Project assessed values for Lathrop, Manteca, and Stockt on, based on differing assessed value
assumptions by jurisdiction. The assessed value per unit for low density residential is assumed to be $450,000 in the Ci ty of Stockton and $500,000 in the City of Manteca,
and $525,000 in the City of Lathrop. as the phasing of the Project varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, the average assessed value per unit for low density residential
Countywide varies between phases.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-3
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Estimated Average Annual Household Income (2020$)
Taxable Annual Taxable
Estimated Total Annual Estimated Expenditures Expenditures Home Mortgage Household as a Percentage of per Household Residential Land Use Value [1] or Rent [2] Income [3] Income [4] (Rounded) Owner-Occupied Residential
Low Density Residential $510,427 $36,514 $104,000 23% $24,000 Renter-Occupied Residential
High Density Residential $200,000 $18,000 $51,000 30% $15,000 income
Source: Costar; The Gregory Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics; EPS. [1] See Table A-5 for detail on estimated values for owner-occupied units. [4] Based on household expenditures data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018 Consumer Expenditure Survey.
San Joaquin
County
[2] Based on a 5%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment, $150 monthly Homeowners' Association dues and 2% annual taxes and insurance.
High density residential based on an average monthly rent assumption of $1,500 based on data on similar multifamily residential obtained from Costar and an average size of 1,000 square feet. [3] Assumes 35% of income dedicated to housing costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) or rent payments. Rounded to the nearest $1,000.
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Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A
DRAFT
Table D-4
Mossdale Tract Infrastructure Finance Plan
Fiscal Impact Analysis - San Joaquin Count
y
Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Feet (2020$)
Item % [2] No. % [2] No. % [2] No.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers [3] $250 $279 3% $8 2% $6 1% $3 Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $525 $586 0% $0 7% $41 10% $59 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $356 $398 0% $0 15% $60 1% $4 Food and Beverage Stores [4] - $578 55% $318 24% $139 3% $17 Gasoline Stations [5] $1,321 $1,664 1% $17 2% $33 1% $17 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $370 $413 2% $8 5% $21 20% $83 General Merchandise Stores $360 $402 5% $20 20% $80 20% $80 Food Services and Drinking Places $492 $550 8% $44 10% $55 20% $110 Other Retail $209 $234 12% $28 7% $16 18% $42
Nonretail [6] NA $0 14% $0 8% $0 6% $0
Total 100% $440 100% $450 100% $410
Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot by Retail Center Type Percent Taxable by Shopping Center Type [7] 44% 54% 98% Taxable Sales per Square Foot (Rounded) $190 $240 $400
retail sales
Note: Original data is based on an average of multiple sources and is presented in 2016$ unless noted otherwise in footnotes. [1] Sales adjusted to year-end 2019 based on the Consumer Price Index, All items in West urban, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted:
Year CPI Adjustment to 2019$
2008 219.65 25.9%
2016 247.71 11.7%
2018 263.26 5.1%
2019 270.35 2.3%
2020 276.59 0.0%
[2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008. [3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes taxable sales per square foot for dealerships. [4]
[5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008, escalated to 2020$. [6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services. [7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2020$) [1]
Total Retail Sales by Shopping Center Typ
e
Neighborhood Community Regional
Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS.
Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSales, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports, escalated to 2020$.
Prepared by EPS 12/20/2021 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192015 Mossdale Tract Financing Plan\Models\San Joaquin\192015 San Joaquin fiscal m7 11.23.21 I-22
Attachment I: San Joaquin County Fiscal Impact Analysis
ATTACHMENT A