Caltrain
Overview and
Budget
Sunnyvale
August 25, 2026
Caltrain Connects
• 77 miles connecting San
Francisco, San Mateo, and
Santa Clara counties
• 31 stations across 20
communities
• Over 160 years of continuous
rail service
• 82% favorability rating voters
• 91% favorability with riders
2 Caltrain is Part of Daily Life
• Provides millions of rides to
get people get to work,
school, and events
• Reduces traffic on major
highways like US-101
• Connects communities
across the Peninsula
• Supports access to jobs
and opportunities
3 Every Day, Caltrain Provides Regional Benefits
Less Traffic:
• Removes the equivalent of
~3 freeway lanes of traffic
at peak times.
• US-101 traffic is 93% of
pre-pandemic levels at rush
hour.
Stronger Economy:
• Higher property and activity
values near
Caltrain stations.
• Contributes to downtown
activations and local tax
bases across the corridor
• Caltrain corridor economic
driver of the state / country.
Cleaner Air
• Reduces greenhouse gas
emissions with 100%
renewable electric service
• Improves air quality and
reduces noise
4 Partnerships on
Major Initiatives
● Corridor Crossing Strategy
● Website page here
● Transit Oriented Development
● Redwood City Transit District
● Battery Electric Multiple Unit Train
● Diridon Station Business Case
● Portal (SF Downtown Extension)
Innovative, Cost Effective:
Safety Enhancements
Worked with technology providers to improve audio
and visual directions by tracks
5 Major Capital
Projects in
Sunnyvale*
Baseline Safety Enhancement Program
• Pavement marking refresh
• Solar markers
• Delineators
Anticipated completion for entire
corridor in 2027
• Bernardo Ave Undercrossing
• Mary Ave Grade Separation
• Sunnyvale Ave Grade
Separation
*Will return for dedicated
presentation on the topic
6 Improved Service
• Faster: Express and local trains
• More Frequent:
- Every 15-20 mins weekday rush hour
- Every 30 mins, every station, 7 days a week
(compared to once an hour)
- 20% more service (26% equity priority stations)
• Better Experience: Free wi-fi, outlets at every
seat, bathrooms, digital displays, quieter inside
and outside the trains
• On-Time Performance: over 95%
7 8
Ridership – 105% Growth Since Pre-Electrification
• Fastest growing transit system US (APTA 2025)
• New Growth: Sporting events, youth $1 discount
• Diversified Ridership: Low-income and Seniors
• Sunnyvale / Lawrence Stations: Largest growth by Station Origin 8 Caltrain Fiscal Outlook and Ridership
99 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26* FY27*
Average Weekday Ridership
Total FY Ridership
Total Fiscal Year and Average Weekday Ridership (FY19-27) Total Annual Ridership Average Weekday Ridership
Caltrain Ridership Trends
10Sources: Caltrain Annual Ridership Reports; Caltrain Fare Media-Based Ridership Estimates. *FY26 and FY27 projected. • Ridership demand continues to grow in response to Caltrain’s electrified service improvements.
Notes: FY19-25 Actuals; FY26-27 projected.
DRAFT
Role of Fares in
Caltrain’s Business
Fares No Longer Cover the Same Share of Costs
• 2019, fare revenue comprised over 70% ($100M) of operating revenue • Today, while still nation leading, fare revenue accounts for ~30% ($43M) of operating revenue. 11 72%
56%
24% 21% 25% 24% 26% 28% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26* FY27*
Caltrain Farebox Recovery Ratios (FY19-27)
12 FY26 Budget
FY25 Forecast
Why Does Caltrain Have a $75M Annual Operating Deficit? Commute Patterns
Shifted
Sustained, significant
changes in work patterns
across San Francisco and
Silicon Valley since the
pandemic.
Ridership &
Revenue Less Than
Before
Fewer riders meant lower
fare, parking, rental, and
advertising income.
Costs Rose
With Inflation
Operating costs grew
faster than revenue
across the transit
industry.
Electrification
Raised Fixed Costs
51 miles of new 25KV
electrical infrastructure to
maintain.
Combined result: These factors and the exhaustion of one-time COVID related funding sources have compounded to create a structural operating deficit that cannot be resolved through cuts or self-generated revenue alone.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY2027 FY2029 FY2031 FY2033 FY2035 FY2037 FY2039 FY2041 Millions
Projected Operating Deficit as of April 2026
Revenue Expense
15-Year Operating Budget
Baseline Forecast Without External Funding
$75 Million Average Annual Operating Deficit
13 Cost Containment Strategies
• Strategic hiring freeze
• Comprehensive cost reduction efficiency program
• FY27: Line by line review, held operator contract
to previous level
• Implemented crew scheduling efficiencies
• Recouping costs for electricity returned to the grid
through regenerative braking
• Develop and evaluate Battery Storage Plan
• MTC study on cost containment showed $70M in
savings over 5 years
14 • Federal Transportation Authority Triannual Review (August 2026) - No findings Non-Fare Revenue Strategies
Exploring new revenue sources
Expand advertising &
media package
train wrapping
naming rights of
rolling stock and
station assets
Advertising and
Naming Rights
Solar farm, energy
storage facility for
traction power and
station energy needs
Solar, Energy
Storage Systems, EV
Charging Leasing
Cell tower leasing,
fiber leasing
Fiber Optic Cable and
Telecommunications
Leasing
Property conveyance
lease
commercial leasing
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD and Commercial
Leasing
Private car
Charter train
Sport events
Parking
Special Events /
Parking
1-2 Year Short Term 2-5 Year Medium Term
15 5+ Year Long Term
Schedule
Continue FY26 Service Levels
Maintain current service level using one-time State Loan funds through FY27.
March 2026:
State Loan
FY2028FY2026
Continue FY26 Service Levels
Service CutsPlan and Prepare for Service Cuts
FY2027
June 2026: Caltrain Board
Adopts FY27 Budget and
Framework for No External
Funding Scenario
November 2026:
General Election
Summer 2027: Measure
Funds Flow for FY28
16 Fiscal Year 28+
1717
Current Service vs. Potential Cuts in a No External Funding ScenarioToday: Frequent Service 7 days a week Potential Service Cuts (FY28+) Frequent Weekday Service
Trains every 15 minutes peak; every 30 off-peak
Weekend Service
Trains every 30 minutes Saturday and Sunday
Long Hours of Service
Trains from ~5 AM to ~1 AM
Special Event Service
Extra trains support concerts, games and more
Hourly Weekday Service
Once per hour all day
No Weekend Service
All Saturday and Sunday trains eliminated
Early Shutdowns
End operations by 9 PM
No Special Event Service
Eliminate all special event trains
Station Closures
Close more than one-third of all stations. Potential for full-service suspension if no external funding continues.
18 Why Cuts Make the Problem Worse (Downward Spiral)
Cut Service
Reduced frequency
and span of service
delivers most savings.
Fewer Riders
Fewer riders due to
inconvenient service,
reducing ridership by
a projected 60% to
70%
Less Revenue
Less fare, parking,
advertising, leasing
revenue offsets
cost savings
Creates Cycle
Difficult to
Reverse
Deficit persists,
forcing
further reductions
Ridership could decrease significantly,
with losses compounded by other
agencies' contemplated cuts.
1 2 3 4
19 Critical Inflection Point
No External Funding Scenario
Even Significant Cuts Won't Solve
the Deficit
Cutting service drives away riders,
reducing operating revenue in
a downward spiral, offsetting much
of the savings from cuts. Significant
deficit remains.
Reduce to hourly service
Eliminate weekend service
End service at 9:00 PM
Close ~1/3 of stations
Cut segments of service
Cuts to administrative costs
Eliminate special event service
Suspend all Caltrain service
Ridership & Revenue Are Growing
Caltrain will continue to grow
ridership, generate revenue, and find
cost savings — but growth and cuts
cannot close the gap.
20 Important Crossroads
21 FOR MORE INFORMATION
WWW.CALTRAIN.COM
22