2024 Pavement Management Program Update
City of
Thousand Oaks
Public Works Department
2100 E Thousand Oaks Blvd
Thousand Oaks, CA 91362
November 2024
2300 E. Katella Avenue, Suite 125
Anaheim, CA 92806
ATTACHMENT #1
DPW: 850-20\ev\Council\2025\021125\PMP Att1.pdf
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
City of Thousand Oaks
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
Prepared for:
City of Thousand Oaks
Public Works Department
2100 E Thousand Oaks Blvd
Thousand Oaks, CA 91362
Prepared by:
Timin Punnackal, P.E. (NV)
Senior Engineer
Luis Alberto Rocher Neri
Staff Engineer
Vivek Jha, P.E. (MD)
Associate
NCE
2300 E. Katella Avenue, Suite 125
Anaheim, CA 92806
(657) 275-83018
NCE Project No. 702.07.30
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Executive Summary City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
EX - 1
Executive Summary
Nichols Consulting Engineers, Chtd. (NCE) was selected by the City of Thousand Oaks (City) to update its Pavement Management Program (PMP) using an automated pavement collection method that efficiently surveyed 100% of the City’s roadway network. This advanced method combines pavement laser scanners with GPS-integrated data recording devices to accurately map pavement conditions while traveling at posted speed limits, ensuring no disruption to traffic. Certified inspectors complement the process by confirming and recording pavement distress data, allowing for precise severity and location assessment. Streets are surveyed in a single pass for one- to two-lane roads, with additional passes for wider or divided streets, ensuring comprehensive coverage.
The purpose of the PMP is to help educate the City’s engineering and finance staff as well as policymakers about the current condition of the street network and the impact of various scenarios on future network conditions.
The city updates its PMP every 5 years, and this report summarizes the findings from the November 2024 PMP update.
The City is responsible for maintaining approximately 384.0 centerline miles of streets, representing a total current asset value of approximately $988.2 million. The street network includes 86.9 centerline miles of arterial streets, 23.0 miles of collector streets, and 274.1 miles of residential streets. In September 2023, NCE surveyed the City’s street network. Following this, the City implemented its planned FY 24/25 projects, including the Slurry Program and the Overlay & Resurfacing Program, which have been vital in reducing deferred maintenance.
According to the 2019 Pavement Management Program (PMP) report, the deferred maintenance baseline was initially projected at $23.4 million. To address this, the City has allocated an average of $17.4 million per biennial cycle since 2020, with a notable investment of nearly $18.8 million for the current cycle, successfully reducing the deferred maintenance estimate to $18.4 million. Table A below summarizes the condition of City streets based on Pavement Condition Index (PCI) and functional classification as of September 2024.
Table A. Street Network PCI Breakdown
Functional Class Centerline
Mileage
Percent
Area
Weighted
Average PCI* Condition
Arterial 86.9 32.9% 79 Very Good
Collector 23.0 6.8% 81 Very Good
Residential 274.1 60.3% 79 Very Good
Total 384.0 100.0% 79 Very Good
*The weighted average PCI is calculated by multiplying the area of each street section by the PCI of that section, totaling all sections together, and then dividing by the total area of the network area or functional classification.
The City of Thousand Oaks street network's weighted average (by area) PCI was 79. Overall, 80.3 percent of the City’s street network area is in “Very Good” condition, approximately 18.4 percent is in “Fair” condition, 1.3 percent is in “Poor” condition, and no streets are in “Very Poor” condition.
To establish a pragmatic approach, 5 budget scenarios were examined using a yearly inflation rate of 4.0 percent. The budgeted amounts for the 5 scenarios include paving and non-paving costs, staff time, design, construction management, and contingencies.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Executive Summary City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
EX - 2
Scenario 1: City’s Anticipated Budget with 4.0% Annual Increase – This scenario assumes that the City’s funding level will increase annually to a cumulative total of $101.8 million over 10 years. The network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 76 by the end of this 10-year period. The cost of deferred maintenance1 will increase to $29.5 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 1A: City’s Anticipated Budget with No Annual Increase – This scenario assumes that the City’s funding level does not increase annually (cumulative total of $90.8 million over 10 years). The network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 75 by the end of FY 32/33. The cost of deferred maintenance will increase to $40.9 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 2: PCI 77 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 75 by the end of FY 32/33 and will cost $118.8 million over 10 years. The cost of deferred maintenance will decrease to $13.7 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 3: PCI 78 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will allow the network PCI to decrease from PCI 79 only to 78 by the end of FY 32/33. This will cost $130.8 million total over 10 years.
Deferred maintenance costs will decrease from $18.4 million to $5.6 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 4: PCI 79 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will maintain the network PCI at 79.
This will cost $143.7 million total over 10 years. Deferred maintenance costs will be reduced to $0.0 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 5: PCI 81 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will increase the network PCI to 81 by FY 32/33. This will cost $162.7 million total over 10 years. Deferred maintenance costs will be reduced to $0.0 million by FY 32/33.
The following table summarizes each scenario and its corresponding 10-year budget, PCI, and deferred maintenance costs at the end of the analysis period.
Table B. Budget Scenario Analysis Summary
Scenario Description
Cumulative
10-year
Budget ($M)
End of FY 32/33
Network PCI Deferred
Maintenance ($M)
1 City’s Budget: with 4%
Annual Increase 101.8 76 29.5
1A City’s Budget: with No
Annual Increase 90.8 75 40.9
2 PCI 77 by FY 32/33 118.8 77 13.7
3 PCI 78 by FY 32/33 130.8 78 5.6
4 PCI 79 by FY 32/33 143.7 79 0.0
5 PCI 81 by FY 32/33 162.7 81 0.0
1 Deferred maintenance refers to maintenance activities that were either not performed as scheduled or were postponed to a future period due to insufficient funding. This calculation encompasses costs associated with CICM (Construction Inspection and Construction Management), design, and contingencies. 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Executive Summary City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
EX - 3
NCE recommends that the City increase the funding level to improve the network condition and decrease deferred maintenance. Scenario 5 accomplishes both these objectives by gradually increasing PCI from 79 to 81 and decreasing the deferred maintenance from $18.4 million to $0.0 million by the end FY 32/33. However, if the City determines that Scenario 5 is unrealistic to implement due to the significant financial commitment, NCE recommends the City pursue Scenario 2 as a more balanced alternative. This option sets a reasonable PCI target of 77, reduces the current deferred maintenance and requires a more moderate investment than Scenario 5.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Table of Contents City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
i
Table of Contents
1 Introduction and Background .................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Network Summary ................................................................................................................... 2 3 Pavement Condition ................................................................................................................ 3 4 Current Work ........................................................................................................................... 6 5 Maintenance and Rehabilitation Strategies ............................................................................. 7 6 Budget Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 9
6.1 Budget Needs ............................................................................................................................ 9
6.2 Budget Scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 9
6.3 Scenario Summary and Comparisons ..................................................................................... 17 7 Reconciliation to Previous Reports ......................................................................................... 21
7.1 Historical PCI ........................................................................................................................... 21
7.2 Maintenance and Rehabilitation History ................................................................................ 22
7.3 Price Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 22 8 Zone Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 24 9 Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 27
9.1 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 27 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Table of Contents City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
ii
List of Figures
Figure 1. Examples of Streets with Different PCIs. ........................................................................................ 3 Figure 2. Network Percent Pavement Area by Condition Category. ............................................................. 4 Figure 3. Network PCI for Different Agencies................................................................................................ 5 Figure 4. 2024 Citywide Paving Program. ...................................................................................................... 6 Figure 5. Costs of Maintaining Pavements over their Service Lives. ............................................................. 7 Figure 6. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 1......................................................................... 11 Figure 7. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 1A. ..................................................................... 12 Figure 8. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 2......................................................................... 13 Figure 9. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 3......................................................................... 14 Figure 10. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 4. ..................................................................... 15 Figure 11. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 5. ..................................................................... 16 Figure 12. Comparison of Annual PCI by Scenario. ..................................................................................... 18 Figure 13. Comparison of Annual Deferred Maintenance by Scenario. ...................................................... 19 Figure 14. Comparison of Budget Difference relative to Scenario 1. .......................................................... 19 Figure 15. Comparison of Preventive Maintenance and Rehabilitation Allocation by Scenario. ............... 20 Figure 16. Comparison of Pavement Condition by FY 32/33 by Scenarios. ................................................ 20 Figure 17. Network Percent Pavement Area by Condition Category (2014-2024). .................................... 21 Figure 18. Selected Sections for Treatment, StreetSaver® Selection. ......................................................... 24 Figure 19. Selected Sections for Treatment based on Weighted PCI and city’s criteria ............................. 25
List of Tables
Table 1. Network Summary Statistics by Functional Class ............................................................................ 2 Table 2. Pavement Condition Categories ...................................................................................................... 4 Table 3. Budget Needs ................................................................................................................................... 9 Table 4. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 1 ...................................................................................... 11 Table 5. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 1A .................................................................................... 12 Table 6. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 2 ...................................................................................... 13 Table 7. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 3 ...................................................................................... 14 Table 8. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 4 ...................................................................................... 15 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Table of Contents City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
iii
Table 9. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 5 ...................................................................................... 16 Table 10. Budget Scenario Analysis Summary ............................................................................................. 18 Table 11. City’s Actual Expenditure vs. 2019 PMP Update Report ............................................................. 21 Table 12. Maintenance and Rehabilitation History (2014 – 2024) .............................................................. 22 Table 13. Paving Items Price 2019 – 2024 ................................................................................................... 23 Table 14. Budget requirements for each Treatment. Current vs Projected Cost ....................................... 23 Table 15. Fixed Treatment Selection ........................................................................................................... 25 Table 16. Centerline Miles by Treatment. StreetSaver® Selection versus Manual Selection ..................... 26 List of Appendices
Appendix A
Section Description Inventory – Average (Weighted by Area) PCI Appendix B
Planned Projects
Appendix C
Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) Decision Tree
Appendix D
Budget Needs
Appendix E
Scenario Results
Appendix F
Scenario 1 – Sections Selected for Treatment
Appendix G
GIS Maps
Appendix H
Quality Control Plan (QCP)
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Introduction and Background City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
1 1 Introduction and Background
Nichols Consulting Engineers, Chtd. (NCE) was selected by the City of Thousand Oaks (City) to update the City’s Pavement Management Program (PMP). To update the City’s PMP, NCE surveyed pavement condition in compliance with ASTM D64332. The surveys did not include non-pavement issues such as traffic, safety and street hazards, geometric issues, shoulders, sidewalks, curb and gutters, drainage issues, or immediate maintenance needs.
After inspection, all survey data were entered into the City’s StreetSaver® database, and Pavement Condition Index (PCI) calculations were performed. NCE then reviewed and updated the City’s decision tree, including maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) strategies and treatment unit costs, analyzed the budget needs, and modeled 5 budget scenarios for the street network.
In general, PMPs are “designed to provide objective information and useful data so that managers can make more consistent, cost-effective, and defensible decisions related to the preservation of a pavement network.”3 In other words, a PMP is designed to assist cities with answering questions such as:
• What does the City’s pavement network include?
• What is the current condition of the pavement network? • What are the City’s current M&R strategies?
• How much funding is required to perform all needed M&R treatments over the next analysis period (typically 4 to 10 years)?
• What effect does the City’s existing funding have on the network condition and overall deferred maintenance?
• What effect will other funding amounts have on the network condition and deferred maintenance?
1.1 Purpose
The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive understanding of overall pavement conditions and facilitate effective planning and maintenance strategies for the City. The report assists policymakers in decision- making by showing the impacts of different funding strategies on the City’s streets over the next 10 years. It also assists the City with identifying M&R priorities specific to the City’s needs and highlights options for improving the current PCI. These options are developed by conducting "what-if" analyses using StreetSaver® software.
2 ASTM. ASTM D6433. Standard Practice for Roads and Parking Lots Pavement Condition Index Surveys. (West Conshohocken, PA: ASTM International, 2023), astm.org.
3 AASHTO Guidelines for Pavement Management Systems. (Washington, DC: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 1990).
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Network Summary City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
2 2 Network Summary
The City is responsible for maintaining approximately 384.0 centerline miles of pavement, which includes 86.9 centerline miles of arterials, 23.0 centerline miles of collectors, and 274.1 miles of residential streets. The network is composed primarily of asphalt concrete pavement and has 2 sections of Portland cement concrete pavement. Table 1 summarizes the street network by functional class. Appendix A lists all the streets within the network, providing details such as the road name, start and end streets, surface type, functional classification, inspection date, and the inspected PCI. It must be noted that the PCI condition after the inspection in September 2023 was 79 and deteriorated to 77 by the summer of 2024. After M&R from the 2024 Citywide Paving Program was performed, the network PCI increased to 79 again.
Table 1. Network Summary Statistics by Functional Class Functional Class Centerline
Mileage
Percent
Area
Weighted
Average PCI1 Condition
Arterial 86.9 32.9% 79 Very Good
Collector 23.0 6.8% 81 Very Good
Residential 274.1 60.3% 79 Very Good
Total 384.0 100.0% 79 Very Good
*The weighted average PCI is calculated by multiplying the area of each street section by the PCI of that section, totaling all sections together, and then dividing by the total area of the network area or functional classification.
Street pavements are one of the City’s most valuable assets. The total street network replacement cost is estimated to be approximately $988.2 million. This can be viewed as the value of the pavement network and is the amount needed to fund a reconstruction of the entire paved network. It does not include related infrastructure assets such as sidewalks, signals, markings, signs, or storm drains.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Pavement Condition City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
3 3 Pavement Condition
The PCI is a measurement of pavement grade or condition and ranges from 0 to 100. A newly constructed street will have a PCI of 100, while a street in very poor condition will have a PCI of 24 or less. Pavement condition is primarily affected by climate, traffic loads and volumes, construction materials, and age. For asphalt pavement, distress might include:
• Alligator (Fatigue) Cracking • Patching and Utility Cut Patching • Bleeding • Polished Aggregate
• Block Cracking • Potholes
• Bumps and Sags • Railroad Crossing
• Corrugation • Rutting
• Depression • Shoving
• Edge Cracking • Slippage Cracking
• Joint Reflection Cracking • Swell
• Lane/Shoulder Drop-Off • Raveling
• Longitudinal/Transverse Cracking • Weathering
The photographs in Figure 1 illustrate the City’s asphalt concrete streets and show a range of PCIs.
Figure 1. Examples of Streets with Different PCIs.
Borchard Road
From Via Ricardo to Brochard Rd
PCI: 90
Manzanita Lane
From Fairview Fire Rd to End (E)
PCI: 44
Drake Drive
From Woodridge Av to Jersey Pl
PCI: 78
Golden Crest Avenue
From Prospector Pl to Antelope Pl
PCI: 58
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Pavement Condition City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
4 The definitions of the pavement condition categories and PCI ranges are shown in Table 2. These are the PCI “breakpoints” in StreetSaver®.
Table 2. Pavement Condition Categories
Condition Category PCI Range Description
Very Good 70 – 100
Pavements with minimal surface distress that may include some hairline longitudinal/transverse cracks and/or weathering. The pavement structure is sound, and minor oxidation may occur.
Fair 55 – 69
Pavements with significant distress that is predominantly non-load-related, such as longitudinal/transverse cracks, bleeding, block cracking, weathering, raveling, etc. The pavement structure is sound, and some oxidation has occurred.
Poor 25 – 54
Pavements with moderate to severe surface distresses. Extensive weathering or raveling, block cracking, and load-related distresses such as alligator cracking, rutting, and potholes may occur.
Very Poor 0 – 24 Pavements with severe weather-related distress and large quantities of load- related distress. These pavements are nearing the end of their service life.
The City’s overall weighted average PCI for the network is 79, which places the overall street network pavement condition in the “Very Good” category. Approximately 80.3 percent (by area) of the street network is in “Very Good” condition, 18.4 percent is in “Fair” condition, and 1.3 percent is in “Poor” condition. Notably, no streets of any functional class are in “Very Poor” condition. Over 75 percent of streets within each functional class are rated “Very Good”, and less than 2 percent are rated “Poor”.
Figure 2. Network Percent Pavement Area by Condition Category.
82.0%
85.6%
78.7%
17.5%
14.2%
19.4%
0.5%
0.2%
1.9%
Arterial
Collector
Residential
80.3%
18.4%
1.3%
Very Good: 70-100 Fair: 55-69 Poor: 25-54 Very Poor: 0-24 Network Functional Class
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Pavement Condition City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
5 Figure 3 illustrates PCI comparisons between the City and the surrounding agencies using information gathered from the 2022 California Statewide Local Streets and Roads Needs Assessment. The City’s PCI of 79 positions the City 14 points above the 2022 statewide average of 65.
Figure 3. Network PCI for Different Agencies.
60 65
74 79 79 81
66 68
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Oxnard Simi Valley Calabasas Agoura Hills Thousand
Oaks
Camarillo Los Angeles Ventura
City County
Network PCI
Statewide PCI is 65
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Historical PCI City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
6 4 Current Work
The City provided NCE with the scope and list of the maintenance and rehabilitation projects that included the 2024 Citywide paving program. This program consists of slurry seals, micro-surfaces, TMOs, and mill & overlays (as shown in Figure 4). The approximate cost of the 2024 Citywide paving program was $18.8 Million. Appendix B shows a full list of the planned projects by street section.
Figure 4. 2024 Citywide Paving Program.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Maintenance and Rehabilitation Strategies City of Thousand Oaks November 2024
7 5 Maintenance and Rehabilitation Strategies
In general, surface treatments such as crack seals or slurry seals are used when the pavements are in “Fair” to “Very Good” condition. This type of treatment is usually considered “preventive maintenance”. When the pavement condition deteriorates to lower levels, overlays and full-depth structure replacements must be performed. These are considered “rehabilitation” or “reconstruction”. In addition, base repairs4 for more localized distresses are commonly done in preparation for overlay and slurry seal treatments.
Based on a discussion with City staff, a detailed M&R decision tree was prepared and is included in Appendix C.
This determined the most effective and realistic treatments for each group of streets by functional class and condition category.
Figure 5. Costs5 of Maintaining Pavements over their Service Lives.
Figure 5 illustrates how costs of pavement treatment increase as pavement condition decreases. The dollar amounts shown in Figure 5 are based on recent bids received by the City and illustrate that it costs much less to maintain streets in good condition than to repair failed streets. By letting pavements deteriorate, streets that once cost ~$7.4 per square yard to treat using Rubberized Emulsified Aggregate Slurry (REAS) may, in a few years, cost as much as ~$73.0 per square yard to reconstruct.
Because of this, a key pavement management repair strategy is to keep streets in “Very Good” to “Fair” condition from deteriorating. This is particularly true for streets in the “Fair” range since pavement deterioration will accelerate if left untreated. The pavement deterioration curve shown in Figure 5 describes how pavements 4 Base repair (also known as patch paving, remove and replace (R&R), or “digout”) involves removing damaged asphalt and, if necessary, the underlying base material, before compacting the base and installing new pavement. 5 In addition to the contractor’s prices, unit costs are loaded to include staff time, design, construction management, contingencies, and non-asphalt concrete related work.
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Pavement Condition Index
Percent of Pavement Service Life
No Repairs Needed
Minor
Resurfacing
Major
Resurfacing
Reconstruction
Repair
Cost
$
9 -
$31
/
Square
Yard
Repair
Cost
$
37 /
Square
Yard
Repair
Cost
$
7 3
-
$
1 07
/
Square
Yard
Very Good
70-100
Fair
55-69
Poor
25-49
Very Poor
0-24
90%75%35%
Preventive
Maintenance
Repair
Cost
$
1.4 -
$7.4
/
Square
Yard
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Maintenance and Rehabilitation Strategies City of Thousand Oaks November 2024
8 deteriorate over time. Pavements in “Fair” condition show some distress and require more than preventive maintenance. At this point, a well-designed pavement will have reached between 35 and 50 percent of its life, and a Thin Maintenance Overlay (TMO) or mill and fill treatment with Rubberized Asphalt Hot Mix (ARHM) would be required to bring its condition back to “Very Good”. For pavements in the “Poor” category, approximately 30 percent of service life is left, and a thicker grind and overlay (2 inches) would be required to bring its condition back to “Very Good”. Pavements in “Very Poor” condition are near the ends of their service lives and often exhibit severe forms of distress such as potholes, rutting, and extensive cracking. At this stage, reconstruction is typically required. In general, arterials are expected to have a service life of approximately 25 years, while residential streets are expected to have a service life exceeding 30 years. 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
9 6 Budget Analysis
Based on the principle that it costs less to maintain streets in good condition than it does to repair those that have failed, cost-effective PMPs employ strategies that first eliminate deferred maintenance and then preserve the network with ongoing preventive maintenance. Such strategies bring the network condition to an optimal PCI that can be maintained over time.
6.1 Budget Needs
The first step in developing a cost-effective strategy is to determine, assuming an unconstrained budget, the total maintenance budget “needs” of the network, i.e., the funding required for every street in the network to reach optimal condition based on the policy established in the decision tree. For the City, the cost of treatment(s) over the analysis period was calculated by multiplying unit costs by pavement section area at an annual inflation rate of 4.0 percent.
The budget needs are estimated to be approximately $149.4 million over the next 10 years. Of the total budget needs, approximately $87.0 million (58.2 percent) would be devoted to preventive maintenance, while the rest would be allocated for more costly rehabilitation and reconstruction. If the City follows this “ideal” strategy, the average network PCI will increase to 81 by FY 32/33. Table 3 below shows the impacts of expenditure on the PCI, assuming an unconstrained budget. Appendix D presents the following information regarding the budget needs:
projected PCI, cost summary, and a cost summary of the preventive and rehabilitation maintenance treatments.
Table 3. Budget Needs
Fiscal Year 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 Total Total Budget
Needs
($M)
18.4 9.1 6.3 14.5 12.2 18.8 13.6 36.9 19.6 149.4
Rehabilitation
($M) 11.2 3.9 4.6 3.1 4.5 2.8 7.4 16.4 8.5 62.4
Preventive
Maintenance
($M)
7.2 5.2 1.7 11.4 7.7 16.0 6.2 20.5 11.1 87.0
Treated PCI 84 83 82 81 81 81 80 81 81 NA
Untreated PCI 79* 79 77 76 74 72 71 69 67 NA
*See Appendix D.
6.2 Budget Scenarios
Having determined the street network's maintenance needs, the next step in developing a cost-effective M&R strategy is to generate several alternative budgets and analyze “what-if” scenarios. By examining the impacts of 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
10 budget scenarios, the advantages and disadvantages of the 5 funding levels and maintenance strategies can be illustrated.
The budgeted amounts for the 5 scenarios (noted below) include a yearly inflation factor of 4.0 percent. They also include paving and non-paving costs, staff time, design, construction management, and contingencies. • Scenario 1: City’s Anticipated Budget with 4.0% Annual Increase • Scenario 1A: City’s Anticipated Budget with No Annual Increase • Scenario 2: PCI 77 by FY 32/33
• Scenario 3: PCI 78 by FY 32/33
• Scenario 4: PCI 79 FY 32/33
• Scenario 5: PCI 81 by FY 32/33
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
11 6.2.1 Scenario 1: City’s Anticipated Budget with 4.0% Annual Increase (Average $10M/Year in Future) The maintenance strategy in this scenario was to prioritize rehabilitation efforts for pavements categorized as “Good,” “Poor,” and “Very Poor”. At the City’s anticipated budget of $18.0 million every other year with an annual 4.0 percent increase, the network PCI will decrease from 79 to 76 by FY 32/33. By the end of the analysis period, 77.2 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 19.2 percent will be in “Fair” condition, 3.5 percent will be in “Poor” condition, and 0.1 percent will be in “Very Poor” condition. The deferred maintenance cost will increase to $29.5 million by FY 32/33. Table 4 and Figure 6 show the outcomes under this scenario.
Table 4. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 1
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 18.5 20.0 21.5 23.0 101.8
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 15.7 17.0 18.3 19.5 86.0
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 15.8
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 25.4 35.0 35.7 29.5 N/A
Network PCI 79 79 78 77 76 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 6. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 1.
18.4 25.4
35.0 35.7
29.5 79 79 78 77 76
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
12 6.2.2 Scenario 1A: City’s Anticipated Budget with No Annual Increase (Average $9M/Year in Future) This scenario is very similar to Scenario 1, except that the biennial budget of $18.0 million is fixed throughout the analysis period. Under this scenario, the network PCI will decrease from 79 to 75 by FY 32/33. By FY 32/33,
74.6 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 20.1 percent will be in “Fair” condition, 5.2 percent will be in “Poor” condition, and 0.1 percent will be in “Very Poor” condition. The deferred maintenance cost will increase to $40.9 million by FY 32/33. Table 5 and Figure 7 show the outcomes under this scenario.
Table 5. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 1A
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 90.8
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 76.7
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 14.1
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 25.9 37.5 41.9 40.9 N/A
Network PCI 79 79 78 76 75 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 7. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 1A.
18.4 25.9
37.5 41.9 40.9
79 79 78 76 75
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
13 6.2.3 Scenario 2: PCI 77 by FY 32/33 (Average $12.5M/Year in Future) In this scenario the target PCI for the network is 77 by the end of FY 32/33. As shown in Table 6 and Figure 8 for Scenario 2, the estimated financial commitment required to accomplish this goal is $118.8 million over 10 years. As a result, the deferred maintenance cost is reduced to $13.7 million by FY 32/33. In this scenario, 78.4 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 14.9 percent will be in “Fair” condition, 6.7 percent will be in “Poor” condition, and no streets will be in “Very Poor” condition after 10 years.
Table 6. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 2
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 118.8
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 9.1 7.7 10.3 12.7 55.3
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 12.9 16.3 15.7 15.3 63.5
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 21.9 28.1 23.8 13.7 N/A
Network PCI 79 80 79 78 77 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 8. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 2.
18.4 21.9
28.1 23.8
13.7 79 80 79 78 77
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
14 6.2.4 Scenario 3: PCI 78 by FY 32/33 (Average $14M/Year in Future) In this scenario the target PCI for the network is 78 by the end of FY 32/33. As shown in Table 6 and Figure 8 for Scenario 3, the estimated financial commitment required to accomplish this goal is $130.8 million over 10 years. Unlike in the previous scenarios, Scenario 3 allocates more funds toward preventive maintenance (“Very Good” category) in each fiscal year, spending the same total amount on preventive maintenance as on rehabilitation. As a result, the deferred maintenance cost is reduced to $5.6 million by FY 32/33. In this scenario,
81.6 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 12.5 percent will be in “Fair” condition, 5.9 percent will be in “Poor” condition, and no streets will be in “Very Poor” condition after 10 years.
Table 7. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 3
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 130.8
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 12.3 8.0 10.3 12.9 59.0
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 15.7 20.0 17.7 15.1 71.8
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 15.9 15.6 13.6 12.1 N/A
Network PCI 79 80 79 79 78 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 9. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 3.
18.4 20.9 20.9
16.0 5.6
79 80 79 78 78
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
15 6.2.5 Scenario 4: PCI 79 FY 32/33 (Average $16M/Year in Future) This scenario assumes the City will maintain the PCI at 79 through the end of FY 32/33. As shown in Table 8 and Figure 10, the estimated financial commitment required to accomplish this goal is $143.7 million over 10 years. Like Scenario 3, Scenario 4 allocates almost 50 percent of the budget towards preventive maintenance (“Very Good” condition), resulting in deferred maintenance costs decreasing to $0.0 million by FY 32/33. In this scenario, 84.5 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 11.3 percent will be in “Fair” condition,
4.2 percent will be in “Poor” condition, and no streets will be in “Very Poor” condition at the end of the 10-year period.
Table 8. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 4
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 30.0 28.9 32.0 34.0 143.7
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 13.9 9.1 10.3 15.3 64.1
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 16.1 19.8 21.7 18.7 79.6
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 13.9 12.9 9.2 4.4 N/A
Network PCI 79 81 80 79 79 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 10. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 4.
18.4 13.9
11.4 7.1
0.0 79 81 80 79 79
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
16 6.2.6 Scenario 5: PCI 81 by FY 32/33 (Average $18M/Year in Future) This scenario assumes the City will increase network PCI to 81 by end of FY 32/33. As shown in Table 9 and Figure 11, the estimated budget for this is $162.7 million over 10 years – an amount similar to the total budget needs (Table 3). In this scenario, roughly 60% of the budget is allocated to preventive maintenance (“Very Good” condition), and the deferred maintenance cost would be reduced to $0.0 million by FY 32/3. In this scenario,
89.5 percent of the network will be in “Very Good” condition, 9.8 percent in “Fair” condition, 0.7 percent in “Poor” condition, and no streets in “Very Poor” condition at the end of the 10-year period.
Table 9. Summary of Outcomes under Scenario 5
Fiscal Year 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33 Total
City’s Budget
($M) 18.8 40.0 27.9 32.0 44.0 162.7
Rehabilitation
($M) 15.5 23.2 8.3 10.3 23.3 80.6
Preventive
Maintenance ($M) 3.3 16.8 19.6 21.7 20.7 82.1
Deferred
Maintenance ($M) 18.4* 7.8 8.7 4.3 0.9 N/A
Network PCI 79 80 80 80 81 N/A
*Based on the 2019 predicted value and the city’s Capital Improvement Program Deferred Requirements Summary.
Figure 11. PCI versus Deferred Maintenance for Scenario 5.
18.4 3.9
7.6 2.6
0.0 79 82 81 80 81
0 20
40 60
80 100
0 20
40 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Deferred Maintenance ($M) Network PCI
Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
17 6.3 Scenario Summary and Comparisons
Scenario 1: City’s Anticipated Budget with 4.0% Annual Increase – This scenario assumes that the City’s funding level will increase annually to a cumulative total of $101.8 million over 10 years. The network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 76 by the end of this 10-year period. The cost of deferred maintenance6 will increase to $29.5 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 1A: City’s Anticipated Budget with No Annual Increase – This scenario assumes that the City’s funding level does not increase annually (cumulative total of $90.8 million over 10 years). The network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 75 by the end of FY 32/33. The cost of deferred maintenance will increase to $40.9 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 2: PCI 77 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the network PCI is projected to decrease from 79 to 75 by the end of FY 32/33 and will cost $118.8 million over 10 years. The cost of deferred maintenance will decrease to $13.7 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 3: PCI 78 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will allow the network PCI to decrease from PCI 79 only to 78 by the end of FY 32/33. This will cost $130.8 million total over 10 years.
Deferred maintenance costs will decrease from $18.4 million to $5.6 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 4: PCI 79 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will maintain the network PCI at 79.
This will cost $143.7 million total over 10 years. Deferred maintenance costs will be reduced to $0.0 million by FY 32/33.
Scenario 5: PCI 81 by FY 32/33 – This scenario assumes that the City will increase the network PCI to 81 by FY 32/33. This will cost $162.7 million total over 10 years. Deferred maintenance costs will be reduced to $0.0 million by FY 32/33.
The following table summarizes each scenario and its corresponding 10-year budget, PCI, and deferred maintenance costs at the end of the analysis period. Appendix E shows the cost and network condition summary for each scenario.
6 Deferred maintenance refers to maintenance activities that were either not performed as scheduled or were postponed to a future period due to insufficient funding. This calculation encompasses costs associated with CICM (Construction Inspection and Construction Management), design, and contingencies. 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
18 Table 10. Budget Scenario Analysis Summary
Scenario Description
Cumulative
10-year
Budget ($M)
Future Annual
Costs ($M)
End of FY 32/33
Network PCI
Deferred
Maintenance
($M)
1 City’s Budget: with
4% Annual Increase 101.8 10 76 29.5
1A City’s Budget: with
No Annual Increase 90.8 9 75 40.9
2 PCI 77 by FY 32/33 118.8 12 77 13.7
3 PCI 78 by FY 32/33 130.8 14 78 5.6
4 PCI 79 by FY 32/33 143.7 16 79 0.0
5 PCI 81 by FY 32/33 162.7 18 81 0.0
Figure 12 compares the annual changes in PCI under each budget scenario, and Figure 13 illustrates the associated annual changes in deferred maintenance under each budget scenario. Under Scenarios 1 and 1A, PCI is projected to decrease by approximately 1 point per year. In contrast, under Scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5, PCI either remains constant at roughly its current level or increases (Figure 12). In addition, under Scenarios 1 and 1A, deferred maintenance is projected to increase by approximately $1.0 million and $3.9 million, respectively, between cycles, while for the other scenarios, it is projected to consistently decrease (Figure 13).
Figure 12. Comparison of Annual PCI by Scenario.
79 79
78 77
7676
75 80
77 79 79
78 78
81 80
79 79
82 81
80 81
75 80
85 24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
PCI
Fiscal year
Scenario 1 Scenario 1A Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Current
Work
0.9 4.4
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
19 Figure 13. Comparison of Annual Deferred Maintenance by Scenario.
It is important to note that to improve the network condition and reduce deferred maintenance, the City will need to significantly increase the biennial budget for Scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5 (Figure 13). Scenario 2 requires an average of $4.2 million more; Scenario 3 an average of $7.2 million more; Scenario 4 demands an average of $10.5 million more per cycle, and Scenario 5 requires almost 60% more budget the amount compared to Scenario 1. Only Scenario 1A will require an average of $2.8 million less than Scenario 1.
Figure 14. Comparison of Budget Difference relative to Scenario 1.
29.5 40.9
13.7 18.4
5.6 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Deferred Maintenance ($M)
Fiscal Year
Scenario 1 Scenario 1A Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Current
Work
-0.5 -2.0 -3.5 -5.0
3.5 4.0 4.5 5.04.5
6.0 8.5
10.0 11.5
8.9 10.5 11.0
21.5 7.9
10.5 21.0
-10
0 10
20 30
24/25 26/27 28/29 30/31 32/33
Budget Difference ($M)
Fiscal Year
Scenario 1A Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Current
Work
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Budget Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
20 It should be noted, however, that the allocation for Preventive Maintenance and Rehabilitation varies significantly across scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 1A allocate roughly 15% of the budget to Preventive Maintenance, while Scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5 increase this allocation substantially to around 50%. Given the 'Very Good' condition of the network, StreetSaver® directed more funds toward preventive measures in these scenarios to reach the target PCI. Although the PCI decreased under Scenarios 1 and 1A, these scenarios align more closely with the city’s typical budget allocation. Figure 15 illustrates the allocation distribution by each scenario.
Figure 15. Comparison of Preventive Maintenance and Rehabilitation Allocation by Scenario.
Figure 16 illustrates the percent change in pavement condition for each scenario at the end of FY 32/33. Only Scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5 will increase the proportion of the network in the "Very Good". Overall, the proportion of the network in "Poor" condition will increase by approximately 3 to 5 times.
Figure 16. Comparison of Pavement Condition by FY 32/33 by Scenarios. 15%
16%
47%
56%
55%
50%
85%
84%
53%
44%
45%
50%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Scenario 1
Scenario 1A
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
PreventiveMaintenance Rehabilitation
80.3%
77.2%
74.6%
78.4%
81.6%
84.5%
89.3%
18.4%
19.2%
20.1%
14.9%
12.5%
11.3%
9.8%
1.3%
3.5%
5.2%
6.7%
5.9%
4.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Current
Scenario 1
Scenario 1A
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Very Good: 70-100 Fair: 55-69 Poor: 25-54 Very Poor: 0-24 2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Reconciliation to Previous Reports City of Thousand Oaks November 2024
21 7 Reconciliation to Previous Reports
7.1 Historical PCI
The average network PCI shows a 3-point PCI increase since 2019. Based on budget scenario results from the “2019 Pavement Management Program Update”, the average network PCI was expected to increase approximately 3 to 4 points by 2024 if the City were to follow all the treatments recommended by StreetSaver® at an average funding level of between $16.0 to $18.4 million every other year (i.e., per M&R project cycle).
Since 2019, the City has completed 3 pavement M&R project cycles averaging approximately $17.0 million every other year, and the 2023 inspection shows an average network PCI of 79. In general, the predicted PCI in 2019 aligns with the inspected PCI. Table 3 below summarizes the City’s actual expenditures and the prediction model from the 2019 PMP Update report.
Table 11. City’s Actual Expenditure vs. 2019 PMP Update Report Sources Funding Levels Predicted PCI (2024)
2019 PMP Update
Scenario 1 ($10.0 million) 74
Scenario 2 ($13.0 million) 76
Scenario 3 ($16.0 million)* 79
Scenario 4 ($18.4 million) 80
Average City’s
Expenditure (2020-2024) $17.0 million 79
*This was the scenario that the City followed.
Figure 17 illustrates the network pavement area percentage by condition category across the last 3 PMP updates. The City adjusted the PCI range for the “Fair” category from 50-70 to 55-70 since the last PMP update in 2019. As a result, the percentages provided in this 2024 PMP report for the 2014 and 2019 PMP updates do not directly align with those in the previous PMP reports. Overall, the data indicates that the City has successfully increased the proportion of the network in “Very Good” condition, while also removing all sections previously classified in the “Very Poor” condition.
Figure 17. Network Percent Pavement Area by Condition Category (2014-2024).
70.3%
69.6%
80.3%
20.4%
26.5%
18.4%
9.2%
3.7%
1.3%
0.1%
0.2%
2014
2019
2024
Very Good: 70-100 Fair: 55-69 Poor: 25-54 Very Poor: 0-24 Network PCI: 79
Network PCI: 79
Network PCI: 76
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Reconciliation to Previous Reports City of Thousand Oaks November 2024
22 7.2 Maintenance and Rehabilitation History
The City implements rehabilitation and surface seal projects once every 2 years. Over the last 2 maintenance cycles, the City has notably increased its funding, resulting in a significant improvement to network PCI, from 76 in 2019 to 79 in 2024. This investment in additional funding subsequently led to an increase in the total centerline mileage of streets treated reflected the total expenditure, which reached an all-time high of $18.8 million in 2024. Particularly in 2022, the City treated 62 centerline miles of streets with a budget of $18.4 million.
The data reveals a strategic emphasis on REAS and micro-surfacing treatments, which collectively accounted for over 175 centerline miles (approximately 63.6% of the total treated centerline miles) across the last decade.
Meanwhile, substantial investments in grind and overlay treatments, which peaked at 25.4 centerline miles in 2020, have also accounted for the network’s overall improvement. Table 12 below summarizes the approximate centerline miles treated by each treatment type for each cycle.
Table 12. Maintenance and Rehabilitation History (2014 – 2024) Treatment Year
Treated Centerline Miles Total
Centerline
Miles
Total
Program
Cost REAS Micro-
Surface TMO Grind and
Overlay
2014 17.9 27.7 - 6.9 52.5 $10.8 million
2016 17.3 3.1 2.1 2.8 25.3 $4.7 million
2018 13.6 5.6 15.8 12.1 47.1 $15.9 million
2020 16.3 4.5 1.6 25.4 47.8 $15.1 million
2022 30.3 11.8 15.3 4.6 62.0 $18.4 million
2024 23.2 4.1 12.9 0.0 40.2 $18.8 million
Total 118.6 56.8 47.7 51.8 274.9 $83.7 million
7.3 Price Analysis
In the 2019 Pavement Management Program (PMP) report, NCE modeled a 3.0 percent inflation rate for the 10- year analysis period across all budget scenarios. During the initial years, the City met the predicted PCI targets outlined in the 2019 PMP report. However, as construction costs continue to rise, maintaining alignment with the 10-year program may become increasingly challenging. For example, asphalt concrete cost were approximately $100 per ton in 2019. If NCE’s projected 3.0 percent inflation rate had been accurate, the asphalt concrete cost per ton would be approximately $120 in today’s dollars. However, today the estimated price has risen to $150 per ton.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Reconciliation to Previous Reports City of Thousand Oaks November 2024
23 Table 13. Paving Items Price 2019 – 2024
Item Unit Unit price
2019 2024
Asphalt Concrete TON $100.0 $150.0
Micro-surface TON $335.0 $450.0
Cold Mill (up to 2 inches) SY $2.3 $3.0
6-inch Base Repair SF $5.0 $13.0
The impact of inflation has become even more pronounced in recent years. In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the worldwide economy for several months, leading to the sudden inflation of prices and interest rates. The average inflation rate in the United States was 1.2 percent in 2020 and 4.7 percent in 2021 but increased to 8.0 percent in 2022. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the 12-month inflation rate for the Los Angeles area Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.9 percent in May 2024, which trends downward from its peak in 2022 but still above the historical average of 3.0 percent. Modeling an inflation rate of 4.0 percent in the budget scenario analysis for this 2024 PMP report is a prudent and slightly conservative approach providing a buffer against potential economic fluctuations.
Recent inflation trends and rising unit costs have significantly impacted the cost of pavement treatments, creating a substantial gap between current expenses and those projected in the 2019 report. If the 2019 projected costs were applied today, there would be a difference of approximately $10.6 million for treating the entire network. Table 14 highlights the budget requirements for each treatment, showing notable increases across all categories. For instance, the cost for ARHM Mill and Fill has risen from $1.6 million to over $3.0 million, while REAS with digouts has nearly doubled, increasing from $2.6 million to $5.3 million. Overall, the total cost of all treatments has escalated from $14.7 million to $25.4 million, emphasizing the need for updated funding strategies to address these inflation-driven cost increases effectively.
Table 14. Budget requirements for each Treatment. Current vs Projected Cost Treatment Current Cost Projected Cost
from 2019 Report
Surface Reconstruction $190,090 $157,260
ARHM Mill and Fill - 2" $3,059,202 $1,645,638
TMO - 1.5" $2,049,099 $1,035,063
Micro-Surface $1,107,304 $832,691
"Micro-Surface w/ Digouts $4,884,529 $3,063,726
REAS $8,780,901 $5,339,731
REAS w/ Digouts $5,310,590 $2,637,984
Crack Sealing $11,411 $9,451
Total $25,393,126 $14,721,544
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Zone Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
24 8 Zone Analysis
NCE conducted an in-depth analysis of the initial recommendations generated by StreetSaver®. While StreetSaver® selects sections for treatment based on those with the highest benefit-cost ratio, it does not account for logistical factors such as mobilization and traffic control costs. When treatment sections are very short or widely separated, these additional costs can increase, whereas continuous or closely located sections may reduce these expenses. Due to the varying condition of street segments across the network, it is common for StreetSaver® to recommend treatments for non-adjacent segments or to assign different treatments to neighboring sections. Figure 18 shows discontinuity in the areas selected by StreetSaver® for treatment in the southeastern part of the City.
Figure 18. Selected Sections for Treatment, StreetSaver® Selection.
To create a cohesive and feasible maintenance plan, NCE divided the City into distinct zones or neighborhoods using a database provided by the City containing the existing network and a neighborhood/zone identification number for each street. Given the budget analysis constraints and the need to balance improving network conditions with reducing deferred maintenance, the City determined that Scenario 1 was the most realistic and sustainable option. Scenarios 2, 3, and 4, while potentially offering more significant improvements, would require substantial increases in the budget.
To develop this process, NCE first imported the sections selected by StreetSaver® for treatment into a geodatabase. Next, City locations with a significant number of sections selected by StreetSaver® were identified for each treatment cycle. Sections were then manually added or removed based on their proximity to these locations. The goal was to incorporate all or most streets within the same neighborhood, typically delineated by arterials or collectors, and select different zones for each biennial cycle. Then, the selected sections were included in a Project Selection list in StreetSaver® to define the most suitable treatment.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Zone Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
25 NCE then calculated the percentage of pavement area by treatment type within each neighborhood or zone.
Based on input from the City, NCE established a fixed criterion in which all sections would receive a more extensive rehabilitation treatment (TMO) if over 40% of the neighborhood required base repairs. This approach ensures that the neighborhood receives more comprehensive and durable treatment overall. Table 15 summarizes this approach
Table 15. Fixed Treatment Selection
Treatment Condition
Grind and Overlay >40 percent of the neighborhood requires Grind and Overlay TMO
>40 percent of the neighborhood requires TMO
>40 percent of the neighborhood requires REAS+BR or Micro- surface+BR
>50 percent of the neighborhood requires TMO and REAS+BR or TMO and Micro-surface+BR
In cases where StreetSaver® recommended treatments, such as Grind and Overlay, REAS with base repairs, Micro-Surfacing with base repairs, or TMOs, did not exceed the above criteria for each neighborhood, NCE calculated a weighted PCI value for each neighborhood. Based on this neighborhood PCI, NCE then assigned uniform treatment to all streets within that area according to a Decision Tree. Finally, some sections were added or removed from each neighborhood treatment plan to fit the biennial budget under Scenario 1. Referring back to Figure 18, a large portion of the neighborhood was initially recommended for REAS with Base Repairs.
However, to optimize treatment continuity and effectiveness, NCE adjusted this recommendation to TMO for the entire neighborhood. Figure 19 shows this adjustment.
Figure 19. Selected Sections for Treatment based on Weighted PCI and city’s criteria
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Zone Analysis City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
26 Table 16 compares centerline miles and PCI for each treatment each year based on the initial StreetSaver® selection for Scenarios 1, 1A, 2 and NCE’s manual selections. NCE’s manual selections resulted in a slight decrease in total PCI by one point but optimized the treatment approach. The adjusted approach reduced total treated centerline miles, driven by a strategic focus on comprehensive treatments within neighborhoods where a significant portion of segments required base repairs. By applying a heavier rehabilitation treatment across entire neighborhoods in these cases, the number of sections that could be treated reduced. Additionally, by selecting sections that were closer to each other, NCE reduced the number of separate treatment areas, and improved logistical efficiency. A GIS map of the selected sections is provided in Appendix H for visual reference.
Table 16. Centerline Miles by Treatment. StreetSaver® Selection versus Manual Selection Treatment Year
S1-Manual
Selection
S1-StreetSaver®
Selection
S1A-StreetSaver®
Selection
S2-StreetSaver®
Selection
Treated
Centerline
Miles
PCI
Treated
Centerline
Miles
PCI
Treated
Centerline
Miles
PCI
Treated
Centerline
Miles
PCI
2026 39.2 79 72.0 79 70.9 79 82.0 80
2028 53.7 78 52.1 78 47.2 78 60.1 79
2030 42.6 77 52.2 77 45.8 77 62.2 78
2032 40.4 75 61.4 76 51.8 75 92.3 77
Total 175.9 N/A 237.7 N/A 215.7 N/A 296.6 N/A
Overall, this plan allows for homogeneous treatment of continuous sections within the same neighborhood.
However, it is important to note that this should not be regarded as a final project-level plan. It is recommended that City staff or a design engineer verify the pavement treatments in the field to ensure accuracy and suitability.
2024 Pavement Management Program Update
Conclusions City of Thousand Oaks
November 2024
27 9 Conclusions and Recommendations
The City of Thousand Oaks has made a substantial investment of $988.2 million in its pavement network.
Overall, the pavement network is in the “Very Good” condition with a PCI of 79. The City’s existing budget (Scenario 1) of $101.8 million over 10 years is expected to reduce the overall network PCI from 79 to 76.
Scenario 1A considers the City’s budget without an annual increase. In this scenario, the total budget of $90.8 million will lead to a decrease in PCI from 79 to 75. Scenario 2 would decrease the PCI from 79 to 77 by FY 32/33 with an investment of $118.8 million. Under Scenario 3, PCI would decrease from 79 PCI to 78 by FY 32/33 with an investment of $130.8 million. Under Scenario 4, PCI would be maintained at 79 by FY 32/33 with an investment of $143.7 million. Finally, under Scenario 5, the PCI would increase to 81 by FY 32/33 with an investment of $162.7 million over 10 years.
9.1 Recommendations
NCE recommends that the City increase the funding level to improve the network condition and decrease deferred maintenance. Scenario 5 accomplishes both these objectives by gradually increasing PCI from 79 to 81 and decreasing the deferred maintenance from $18.4 million to $0.0 million by the end FY 32/33. However, if the City determines that Scenario 5 is unrealistic to implement due to the significant financial commitment, NCE recommends the City pursue Scenario 2, considering the following:
1. Additional Funding – Actively pursue additional pavement funding sources to fill the gap between the City’s existing funding and Scenario 5.
2. Pavement Maintenance Strategies – Continue with a well-funded preventive maintenance program and rehabilitation projects to improve pavement in poor condition. This is necessary to maintain at least the portion of the street network in “Fair” condition and avoid increasing the deferred maintenance.
3. Inspection Strategies – Monitor future pavement performance and ongoing maintenance needs by updating the required inventory of the City’s arterial and collector streets every 2 to 3 years at a minimum. NCE recommends that the City also inspect the residential street network every 5 to 6 years.
4. M&R Decision Tree – Review and update the M&R treatment strategies and associated unit costs annually to reflect new construction techniques and costs so that the budget analysis results remain reliable and accurate.