ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN
This section updates information from the 2019 Community Profile and Environmental Scan with issues—both continuing from 2019 and new issues— that could impact the City’s continued implementation of the Strategic Plan. For each issue, the implications for the Strategic Plan are discussed.
Declining Births
The 2019 Community Profile and Environmental Scan discussed the potential impacts of changing demographics, most notably declines in the fertility rate and number of births that began after 2007. Using data through 2017, the report indicated that there was still some thought that the decline might be a lingering effect of the 2008/09 recession. Updated with data through 2023, Figure 1 shows that the declining fertility rate and number of births has continued and shows no signs of leveling off yet. The total number of births in the US in 2023 was last the low in 1979. The US fertility rate (measured as the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49) is at a historical low.
Figure 1: Number of Births and Fertility Rate; United States; 1910 through 2023
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026 using data from the US Centers for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics Reports, Births: Final Data for 2023, March 18, 2025.
The declines in births and fertility are occurring across the globe. The decline has also been occurring in California. As shown in Figure 2, the fertility rate in California has been lower than that across the nation but has followed a trajectory similar to that for the US from 2000 to 2023. Indeed, the fertility rate in the US in 2023 is at California’s level in 2009.
0 28
56 84
112
140
0 1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
1910
1916
1922
1928
1934
1940
1946
1952
1958
1964
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
2012
2018
Fertility Rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49)
Number of Live BirthsNumber of Live Births
Fertility Rate
147
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 59
Figure 2: Fertility Rate (number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49); US and California; 2000 to 2023
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics Reports, Births: Final Data for 2023, March 18, 2025 and CA Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit, Report P-B: Births Report, California and Counties, 2000-2050, November 2025.
The national and state trends in declining fertility rates and number of births are evident in school enrollment rates. Statewide, school enrollment has declined from 6.2 million students in 2017 to 5.8 million in 2025, a declined of 422,000 students, or 6.8 percent. For Torrance Unified School district, enrollment declined from 2017 to 2023, increased slightly the following year, and then continued with declining enrollment in 2025. In 2025, the District’s enrollment of 22,000 was 7.1 percent lower than its enrollment in 2017, 23,700. Figure 3 shows the enrollment at TUSD and across California as a percentage of the enrollment in 2017. As the figure shows, the trend in Torrance mirrors the statewide trend:
declines were happening prior to COVID and have continued since.
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
US
California
148
Figure 3: School Enrollment as a Percentage of Enrollment in 2017; Torrance Unified School District and California; 2017 to 2025
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using data from the California Department of Education, California School Dashboard.
While the declines in the fertility rate and the number of births since 2007 have been historic, they are only one part of the demographic story. The 2019 Community Profile and Environmental Scan showed that, in 2015, Torrance had a smaller share of its population under the age of 19 and a larger share over the age of 49 relative to the US, Southern California, adjacent beach cities, and adjacent inland cities. Since COVID, that has changed slightly.
As of 2023, relative to the US and Southern California, Torrance has a smaller share of its population between the ages of 15 and 34 and a larger share between the ages of 45 and 64. Otherwise, the share of the population in each age group is roughly similar among Torrance, the US, and Southern California, as show in Figure 4. Generally, Torrance’s ages are similar to the adjacent beach cities and the adjacent inland cities, as shown in Figure 5. However, unlike Torrance and the adjacent beach cities, the percentage of the population aged 15 to 34 in the adjacent inland cities does not drop precipitously but rather follows the trend statewide.
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
TUSD CA
149
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 61
Figure 4: Share of the Total Population by 5-Year Age Cohorts; Torrance, the US, and Southern California; 2023
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-2023 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Sex by Age, Table B01001.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and older
Torrance Southern California US
150
Figure 5: Share of the Total Population by 5-Year Age Cohorts; Torrance, Adjacent Inland Cities, and Adjacent Beach Cities; 2023
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-2023 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Sex by Age, Table B01001.
Strategic Plan Implications
The decline in school enrollment is a specific issue for school districts, but it illustrates the real-world impact of declining fertility rates and declining numbers of births. The trends suggest that the City will continue to see fewer school age children.
It is not uncommon for communities, especially those without a university, to see a decline in the percentage of the population after high school. The steep decline in Torrance and the adjacent beach cities with higher percentages of the population aged 45 to 64 suggests that, after high school, many residents leave for some combination of further education and work, and that it is not until their 40s that many people can afford to move to Torrance.
The declining birth trends and the distribution of the population by age group were evident when the 2019 Community Profile and Environmental Scan was 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and older
Torrance Inland Cities Beach Cities
151
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 63
prepared, and thus, do not reflect new information. However, the steep decline in population starting with the 15 to 19 age group in 2023 is different. Since the 2021 Strategic Plan, the City has made planning and zoning changes to facilitate more housing development. It can be expected that this change will take time to result in substantial new housing development and even more time to potentially impact the ages at which people can afford to move to Torrance. This situation warrants continued monitoring and will likely continue to be addressed in a subsequent update to the Strategic Plan.
Migration and Population Growth
For decades, California has experienced net domestic outmigration—the number of residents moving from California to other states exceeds the number of Americans moving from other states to California. However, the natural population increase—the number of births minus the number of deaths—and foreign immigration to California exceeded the population loss from domestic migration, as shown in Figure 6. With the number of births beginning to decline in 2008 and the number of foreign migrants decreasing starting in 2017, California’s population growth began to slow. With these trends and COVID-era relocations, the state’s population decreased for the first time from 2020 through 2022. A bounce back in immigration brought the state back to population growth. However, a drop off in immigration from 2024 to 2025 reduced the state’s estimated population growth to an increase of only 19,200 last year.
Figure 6: Population Change by Components of Change; California; 2000 to 2025
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using data from the CA Department of Finance, Demographic Estimates Table E -
2. California County Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year — July 1, 2000-2025, February 2026.
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Natural Change Net Domestic Migration
Net Immigration Total Change in Population
152
With the continuing decline in the fertility rate (DOF currently projects the fertility rate to decline through 2050 and the number of births to decline through 2035) and the current federal immigration policy, it is likely that the state’s population will decline in the short term, and perhaps longer. In a state that has lived with population growth for generations, changes in thinking may be necessary to achieve sustainable governance in an era of no growth or even population decline.
Strategic Plan Implications
When the fertility rate and number of births began to decline after 2007, it was thought for many years that this was an impact of the 2008/09 recession and would eventually revert back to the mean. It turned out to be a new long-term trend. It is not yet clear that the population decline is the new long-term trend in California. Nevertheless, it warrants continued monitoring. It is also not clear that a decline in statewide population would trickle down to decreases in population in Los Angeles County or Torrance.
It is important to note that even if the statewide population declines, smaller household sizes and existing overcrowded housing conditions may mean that there is continued demand for new housing development in Torrance and throughout Southern California.
If population does decline, it could result in stagnant or declining demands for services. However, it would also likely result in decreases in retail spending and the resulting sales tax revenue. It is too early to say that these possibilities warrant a reconsideration of the current strategic plan, but this topic may well generate more consideration during the next full update of the Strategic Plan.
Retail Sales
The 2019 Community Profile and Environmental Scan noted the long-term trend of growth in online retail sales and the relative stagnation of retail sales at bricks and mortar stores, and that was before the COVID pandemic. Figure 7 shows the monthly average monthly sales per household in the US, adjusted for inflation to January 2026 dollars. The data are divided into sales at convenience goods and services businesses (such as grocery stores, pharmacies, and gasoline stations), comparison goods retailers (such as furniture, electronics, cars, and so forth), food service and drinking places, and nonstore retailers (which is primarily online retailers but also includes catalog sales).
Between the 2008/09 recession and COVID, sales at both convenience goods and comparison goods retailers were generally stagnant or declining, on an inflation-adjusted per household basis. Sales at convenience goods retailers bounced back and grew until 2022. Since then these sales have declined to 2003 levels. Sales at comparison goods retailers also bounced back after COVID, but have declined since 2021 and are now as low as in 1993. 153
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 65
In contrast, sales at eating and drink places have continued growing, only leveling off in 2024. But the largest increase has been sales at nonstore retailers. These sales are 53 percent higher than immediately prior to the two-month recession brought on by the COVID pandemic.
Thus, the trend of retail sales shifting from bricks-and-mortar stores to online purchasing continues unabated. It is not clear when, or if, this trend will level off.
However, it does appear that traditional in-store retailing will continue to decline.
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using sales by type of retail data from the US Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Report; inflation data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-All Urban Consumers; and number of households data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Household Estimates [TTLHHM156N].
The change in retail spending, especially since COVID, is evident in the taxable sales across California. Figure 8 shows the amount of taxable sales at retail stores and restaurants per capita, adjusted for inflation into 2026 dollars. These sales increased slightly from 2015 until COVID. After a slight decline in 2020, these sales increased significantly. Since then, the sales have declined for three straight years, decreasing by 10.3 percent from 2021 through 2024. 0 200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Convenience Goods Sales Comparison Goods Sales
Nonstore Retailers Food Service and Drinking Places
Figure 7:Inflation Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales per Household by Type of Retailer; US; 1992 to 2025
154
Figure 8: Inflation Adjusted Taxable Retail and Food Services Sales per Capita; California; 2015 to 2024
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using taxable retail sales data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration; inflation data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-All Urban Consumers; and number of households data from the CA Department of Finance.
A similar trend has occurred in Torrance as shown in Figure 9. Retail sales in Torrance declined slightly in the year before COVID and then declined more substantially than the statewide decline in 2020. After bouncing in 2021 and 2022, these sales have declined. From 2022 through 2024, inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales per capita at retail stores and restaurants has declined 13.4 percent.
Strategic Plan Implications
Sales tax revenue is an important source of unrestricted revenue for local governments in California, including Torrance. A decline in taxable sales translates into a reduction in general fund revenue, although this is somewhat offset by allocations from the county pool.
Equally as important is that a decline in taxable sales at retail stores and restaurants means less support for local businesses. Continued declines could reduce the support for new commercial buildings and mixed-use buildings, and it could result in vacancies in retail and commercial buildings in Torrance.
City staff are well aware of the retail sales challenges. The Finance Department continues to work with the City’s retail sales tax consultant to monitor the revenue implications. The City also has a vigorous economic development program to support local businesses, promote marketing of Torrance, and attract businesses.
As the statewide data illustrate, this is not a Torrance-specific challenge, but rather, many cities are facing similar declines in taxable retail sales. 0 4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
155
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 67
There does not appear to be an immediate need to address this through a change in the Strategic Plan. However, if present trends continue, this issue will likely need to be considered in the next comprehensive update to the Strategic Plan.
Figure 9: Inflation-Adjusted Taxable Retail Sales per Capita at Retail Stores and Restaurants and at All Other (Non-Retail) Businesses; Torrance; 2009 to 2024
Source: PlaceWorks, 2026, using taxable retail sales data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration; inflation data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-All Urban Consumers; and number of households data from the CA Department of Finance.
State and Federal Budgets
At the federal level, the current administration proposed substantial cuts to the federal budget. However, the recent congressional budgeting efforts (continuing resolutions to fund the federal government through the end of its current fiscal year) have mostly restored intended cuts. Nevertheless, changes to the Medicaid and food stamp programs have been adopted and may well reduce the federal funding flowing to the states for these programs. Furthermore, even if funding has been appropriated, it is not a certainty that the funding will be spent. Thus, there are unknown risks of reductions in federal funding—direct funding and grant programs—that may impact the City.
During the COVID pandemic, the federal government provided supplemental funding to local governments and states. California expanded services using some of this supplemental funding. Now that those funds have expired, the state faces a large structural deficit. As shown in Figure 10 below, the CA Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the structural deficits at $35 billion per year or more.
The CA Department of Finance is somewhat more optimistic, with estimated deficits closer to $20 billion per year. And these deficits are before potential reductions in federal funding are factored in.
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Retail and Food Service All Other Outlets
156
At the present time, it is not known how the state might ameliorate its budget challenges. Nevertheless, there is the potential for reductions in state funding or a shifting of state responsibilities to local governments. Without a concrete state budget proposal, it would be premature to address the potential implications though the Strategic Plan. The City will continue to monitor both the federal and state budget through its state and federal Legislative Advocacy Committees.
Figure 10: Potential State Budget Deficits; California; 2027 to 2030.
Source: California Legislative Analyst’s Office.
STRATEGIC PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the interviews with City staff and review of publicly available information, this evaluation identified only 2 out of 249 subgoals for which progress cannot clearly be determined:
+ Subgoal 4.1.5: Continue to expand after-school recreational activities at school sites.
+ Subgoal 6.4.4: Look for opportunities to certify and recognize City technological/digital accomplishment/programs through nationally recognized programs, such as Bloomberg City Standards or Smart Cities Initiatives.
For subgoal 4.1.5, the City has worked with the district to provide after-school recreational activities, but now that the state is providing funding directly to the school district these programs, this subgoal may no longer be warranted. Finally, relative to most other cities, Torrance is a leader in its use of digital technology. It may well be time to seek our national recognition for the City’s endeavors. 157
Torrance Strategic Plan | Mid-Cycle Review Page 69
The vast majority of the subgoals continue to provide direction for City decisions, programs, and projects on an ongoing basis. The evaluation finds no current need to update the Strategic Plan.
The evaluation also identified several external issues that may impact continued implementation of the Strategic Plan:
+ Declining school enrollment
+ Decreasing immigration that may result in no or decreasing population growth regionally
+ Reductions in in-store spending at retail stores
+ Potential reductions in state and federal funding
While each of these have the potential to be significant impacts, none are yet advanced to the stage that would warrant consideration of changes or additions to the current Strategic Plan. The evaluation determined that the City is already monitoring each of these issues and, where relevant, working proactively to address the issues.
158