DISCUSSION AND POSSIBLE DIRECTION ON COMMUNITY VIOLENCE MITIGATION FOR SUMMER 2025 Jason Ta, Chief of PoliceBob Knight, Deputy Chief of PoliceJuly 1st, 2025 Community Violence Mitigation for Summer 2025•Current strategies•Short term strategies –within one year•Long term strategies –1-2 years and beyond•Reactive vs Proactive Current Strategies•Maintain current homicide solve rate 2024: 68% 2025: 85%–Investigations Division staffing •1 Detective Lieutenant •1 Detective Sergeant•2 Detective Corporal•5 Detectives•Hot Spot Policing and visible patrols•After violent crimes•Sideshow deterrence program –CHP•Neighborhood Impact Team (NIT)•Public transparency as a violence reduction strategy•Social media posts•Joint press conference on enforcement•Participation in ATF NIBIN and other industry standard programs (i.e. –Etrace, forensic evidence processing, FLOCK technology, ghost gun training, etc.)•Violence Analysis Assessment –October 2024•Through National Public Safety Partnership (PSP)•Identified crime trends of de-centralized violence and less group involved drivers of gun violence (i.e. gangs) Short Term Strategies •Creation of Problem Oriented Policing Team (POP)–1 Sergeant, 3 Officers–Increased Crime Intelligence–Flexibility to address a variety of crime problems as trends change•Crosstrain Analytical Staff •1 Crime Analyst, 8 Administrative Analysts •Police Staffing Augmentation •Contract police services with Solano SO•Continue inter-agency collaboration with CHP•Attached to LE task forces (regional and Federal)•Solano County Major Crime Task Force assistance and CalDOJevidence processing partnerships•Leverage USDOJ National Public Safety Partnership (PSP) site selection•3 years -National Public Safety Partnership | Overview | Bureau of Justice Assistance•Unprecedented access to Federal partnerships, training & technical assistance (TTA), and customized assessments •Identified goals•Reduce gun violence•Improve community engagement Long Term Strategies •Improve Police Department Staff –Sworn & Civilian –Full investigative staff–Specialized teams to address violence and quality of life issues separately–Recruitment, retention, referral incentives –Police officer/employee feeder programs: police cadets, police explorers–Task Force Officers (TFO) –Regional & Federal staff multiplier •Use of Security Guard patrols•Exploring supplementary with security towers (monitored vs. visual deterrence) •Real Time Information Center (RTIC)•Drone as first responder•Camera & ALPR monitoring•Must be coupled with response capability •Continued funding of alternative response team –IHART •Vallejo VISION –Violence, Intervention, Support, Improving, Our Neighborhoods•Gun violence reduction program•Embraces a shared approach to public safety•Not “enforcement-centric”•Identify individuals most at risk for committing or being victim of gun violence•Balance approach of services & support and accountability of candidates •Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs)
Current Crime Statistics YTD•Gun violence statistics -2025 YTD§Historic homicide totals (Currently 7vs. 11SPLY)§Shooting cases map clusters §Shooting cases by category and police beat§Shooting cases demographics§Age range, race and gender •Operations Report -May 2025
CONTACT(S)
Jason Ta, Chief of [email protected] Knight, Deputy Chief of Police [email protected] 57 5
P A T R O L D I V I S I O N
4,510
Calls for Service
689
Officer Initiated
Incidents
396
Traffic Stops
0 Officer Involved
Shootings
579
Crime Reports
104
Information Reports
11 Use of Force
Incidents
8 Vehicle Pursuits
3 Assaults on Officers
73 Felony Arrests
108
Misdemeanor Arrests
172
Vehicle/Pedestrian
Checks
9 Firearm/Ammo/Weapons
Arrests
C R I M E
Year to date crime statistics:
YTD offenses reported through the month of May
Crime/Category 2024 2025 % Change
Murder 9 6
-50%
Rape 23 14
-64%
All Other Sexual Aslts/Offenses 47 39
-21%
Robbery 121 135
10%
Aggravated Assault 210 218
4%
Simple Assault 203 221
8%
Kidnapping / Abduction 36 30
-20%
Burglary / Breaking & Entering 238 285
16%
Larceny 1,648 1,110
-48%
Stolen Vehicles 410 256
-60%
Arson 16 17
6%
*Select Subcategory Breakdown
-Auto Burglary/Theft Cases 457 451
-1%
- Shooting Cases 85 84
-1%
- Domestic Violence Cases 164 195
16%
*Due to NIBRS crime classifications, Domestic Violence can be categorized as both Aggravated & Simple Assault.
Shootings can be categorized as Aggravated Assault, Vandalism or Weapons Law Violation. * Auto Burglary is categorized as Larceny.
All figures are subject to further analysis and revision.
Patrol
Division
Traffic
Division
4 Lieutenants
5 Sergeants
1 Lieutenants
1 Sergeants
2 Corporals
42 Officers
1 Officers/
Corporals
1 Professional
Staff
Total numbers do not include those on medical or military leave or FTO
S T A F F I N G
T R A F F I C
Fatal Collisions
2024 vs 2025
YTD Comparison
2024 2025 % Change
2 6
MORE THAN
100%
72 Collision
Reports
1 Fatal
Collisions
Abandoned Vehicles
335
Reported
115
Towed
187
Inspected
2,392
Pending
Inspection
OPERATIONS BUREAU
MAY 202 5
13,640
Incoming Phone Calls
5,199
Incidents Created
C O M M U N I C A T I O N S
Monthly Statistics
4 Police
Assistants
1 Sr. Police
Assistants
Shooting Cases by Beat
B
e
a
t
1 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 0
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 1
Negligent Discharge 0
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 1
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 1
Total 3
B
e
a
t
2 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 1
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 2
Negligent Discharge 1
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 3
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 0
Total 7
B
e
a
t
3 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 0
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 1
Negligent Discharge 1
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 0
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 0
Total 2
B
e
a
t
4 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 0
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 3
Negligent Discharge 5
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 3
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 1
Total 12
B
e
a
t
5 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 0
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 11
Negligent Discharge 2
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 5
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 1
Total 19
B
e
a
t
6 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 2
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 6
Negligent Discharge 3
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 3
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 3
Total 17
B
e
a
t
7 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 1
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 11
Negligent Discharge 1
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 1
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 0
Total 14
B
e
a
t
8 Shooting Case Category Amount
Homicide 1
Attempted Murder /
Assault with Firearm 5
Negligent Discharge 2
Shoot into Occupied
Dwelling/ Vehicle 4
Shoot into Unoccupied
Dwelling/Vehicle 4
Total 16
Shooting Cases by Beat: January 7, 2025 – June 27, 2025 Total Shooting Cases: 90
Fatal Shootings: 5 | Non-Fatal Shootings: 85
Shots Fired Calls for Service: 295 | Gunshot Audio Detection Calls for Service: 429 *All figures are subject to further analysis and revision. Data gathered for presentation purposes.
Shooting Cases by Beat
HOMICIDE
5 ATTEMPTED HOMICIDE
2 ASLT / W FIREARM
38 SHOOT: NEGLIGENT DISCHARGE
15 SHOOT: OCCUPIED DWELL/VEH
20 SHOOT: UNOCCUPIED DWELL/VEH
10 Total Cases
90 Subjects Struck by Gunfire
41 18
8 2
11 2
0 5 10 15 20
Black
Hispanic
Other
White
Unknown
Race of Shooting Victims
11 5
11 9
5 0 5 10 15
50+
40-49
30-39
18-29
0-17
Age Group of Shooting Victims
4 37
0 10 20 30 40
F
M
Gender of Shooting Victims
Total Shooting Cases: 90
Subjects Struck by Gunfire: 41
*All figures are subject to further analysis and revision. Data gathered for presentation purposes.
Shooting Cases by Beat
Map of Shooting Cases: January 7, 2025 – June 27, 2025
Shooting Cases by Beat
Homicides in Vallejo
18 19
17 25
19 18 18
15 6
12 0
5 10
15 20
25 30
35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vallejo Homicides: 2010 - 2019
28 20
24 22
25 7
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 YTD
Vallejo Homicides: 2020 - 2025 YTD
*All figures are subject to further analysis and revision. Data gathered for presentation purposes.
November 1, 2023
The Honorable Phillip A. Talbert
U.S. Attorney
Eastern District of California
501 I Street, Suite 10-100
Sacramento, CA 95814
Interim Chief Jason Ta
Vallejo Police Department
111 Amador Street
Vallejo, CA 94590
Dear Mr. Talbert and Interim Chief Ta:
Thank you for applying to join the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) National Public Safety Partnership (PSP). DOJ is pleased to extend this letter of confirmation to Vallejo to join PSP as part of the 2023 cohort. You will be joining a network of more than 50 cities in receiving comprehensive support from across DOJ that will enhance your capa city to reduce violent crime and increase community engagement.
PSP enables DOJ to partner with state, local, and tribal law enforcement and prosecutors to strategically support and collaborate on public safety and community violence intervention strategies and supplement current efforts in the investigation, prosecution, and prevention of violent crime. This approach serves as a platform for DOJ to directly engage with cities to identify and prioritize resources that will help local communities address their violent crime issues, especially crime related to gun, drug, and criminal gang violence. DOJ is committed to advancing work that promotes civil rights, increases access to justice, supports crime victims, protects the public from crime and evolving threats, and builds trust between law enforcement and the community. As a PSP site, Vallejo will receive the following resources throughout the 3-year engagement period:
• Unprecedented access to a broad spectrum of resources available from DOJ to deliver highly customized and strategically coordinated training and technical assistance (TTA) based on the needs and emerging issues in your community. • Invitations to the 2023 Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) Violent Crime Reduction Summit, Partnerships for Safer Communities, where you and your team will have an opportunity to engage with other BJA violence reduction grantees, including PSP sites, and discuss partnerships for safer communities.
The Honorable Phillip A. Talbert
Chief Jason Ta
November 1, 2023
Page Two
o The BJA summit will take place on December 11–13 in Indianapolis, Indiana, and will host approximately 1,000 attendees. Planning for the 2023 summit is currently underway, and specific details about Vallejo’s involvement will be forthcoming. • A site-specific team dedicated to support Vallejo throughout the engagement period.
The team includes a strategic site liaison (SSL) —an experienced criminal justice professional—who will work with Vallejo PSP partners, including the U.S. Attorney’s Office, to coordinate with the BJA and PSP’s TTA providers to ensure Vallejo receives strategically focused TTA that is consistent with, and complementary to, Vallejo’s local violence reduction efforts. The SSL for Vallejo is Chief Lisa Myers.
Chief Myers’s bio is attached for your reference.
We ask that you hold this good news until DOJ has an opportunity to make a public announcement. We will notify you when that occurs, which we anticipate happening soon . In the meantime, your SSL will be in touch to help answer any questions and make sure you are set to attend the upcoming summit.
To officially launch your PSP onboarding, we will hold a virtual introductory meeting.
During the “Welcome to PSP” web event, introductions to the PSP team members will occur, and DOJ leaders will provide an overview on PSP as well as details on what to expect throughout the engagement. You will receive an informational PSP welcome packet with PSP background materials and site resources prior to the introductory meeting. An invitation is forthcoming. In addition, an in-person listening session will be scheduled in early 2024. The session will include opportunities for you and your team to share with DOJ the issues facing Vallejo, meet the PSP team, and learn more about the background of PSP.
We are honored to partner with Vallejo through this unique initiative to proactively address your community’s needs and provide focused, data -driven, and evidence -based resources and expertise to further increase public safety in Vallejo and across the country.
We welcome the opportunity to answer any questions you may have regarding this initiative. If you have any questions, please contact Ms. Kristie Brackens, BJA PSP Director, via email at [email protected] or by telephone at (202) 305-1229.
Sincerely,
Karhlton F. Moore
Director
Bureau of Justice Assistance
U.S. Department of Justice
Enclosures
PAGE 1
VALLEJO, CALIFORNIA
VIOLENCE
ANALYSIS
ASSESSMENT
OCTOBER 2024
PAGE 2
Submitted by:
Julie Wartell and Andrew M. Fox
This project was supported by Grant No. 15PBJA-22-GK-03705-JAGP awarded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance. The Bureau of Justice Assistance is a component of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Justice Programs, which also includes the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, the Office for Victims of Crime, and the Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking (SMART). Points of view or opinions in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S.
Department of Justice. All rights reserved. Copyright 2024.
The National Public Safety Partnership (PSP) provides coordinated training and technical assistance (TTA) upon request from participating state, local, or tribal law enforcement and prosecution authorities. This assessment report was provided as part of a PSP TTA request and is the sole property of the requesting agency. While PSP participants are encouraged to collaborate with their local, state, and federal law enforcement partners, the dissemination of this report is strictly defined by the requesting agency.
PAGE 3
Introduction ................................................................................. 4 Assessment Process ................................................................................ 4 Observations and Recommendations ............................................................ 5
1. Violent Crime and Shooting Call Patterns ............................................................ 7
2. Firearm Violence Locations and Networks .......................................................... 11
3. NIBIN Lead Networks and Locations ............................................................... 17 Conclusion ................................................................................. 22 Appendix A: Subject Matter Experts (Assessment Team) .................................................. 23 Appendix B: About Social Network Analysis .............................................................. 24 Appendix C: Recommendations Table and Timeline ...................................................... 26 Addendum: Additional Analysis ......................................................................... 27
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE 4
The National Public Safety Partnership (PSP) was launched in June 2017 by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) to serve as a DOJ-wide initiative that enables cities to consult with and receive coordinated training and technical assistance (TTA) and an array of resources from DOJ’s programmatic and law enforcement components. PSP is an intensive TTA initiative designed to help selected cities develop the capacity to strategically reduce violent crime. Over a three-year implementation period, PSP provides police agencies and prosecutors with no-cost, customized assistance to support and enhance local violence reduction strategies.
More information on PSP can be found at www.nationalpublicsafetypartnership.org/.
As part of the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) PSP , CNA engaged subject matter experts (SMEs) Julie Wartell and Andrew Fox to conduct a violence analysis assessment for the Vallejo, California, PSP site. The purpose of this effort was to assist Vallejo with strategies to reduce violent crime.
ASSESSMENT PROCESS
To kick off the violence assessment, in April 2024, the SMEs held a virtual meeting with the Vallejo site team and then with members of the Vallejo Police Department (VPD). The SMEs had a follow-on virtual meeting with the Vallejo crime analyst in May 2024 to discuss Vallejo’s crime data. The SMEs conducted a site visit June 6–7, 2024, and met with the crime analyst, the lieutenant of Investigations, a sergeant, and a former VPD detective who is now a Solano County District Attorney (DA) investigator. In September 2024, the SMEs met with other VPD command staff, including a captain, the sergeant over Investigations, and two investigators, after a briefing with the chief and deputy chief on September 10, 2024.
The SMEs worked with VPD to compile two years of police data for analysis. Initial data included shooting- related calls for service, crime incidents, arrests, and field interviews from May 2022 through April 2024. In addition, all National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) leads spanning from December 2015 to May 2024 were provided to the SMEs. The SMEs worked with the crime analyst to interpret the data before and after the site visit in June 2024. Subsequent to completion of the report, the SMEs received one year of all calls for service data (August 2023 to July 2024) to examine overall crime trends and additional demographic data as requested by the chief.
INTRODUCTION
PAGE 5
Overview of Vallejo Police Department
The city of Vallejo has approximately 122,000 residents and is the second largest city in the North Bay region, encompassing approximately 49.5 square miles. Vallejo is in the southwestern portion of Solano County and borders the cities of Benicia and American Canyon; it also borders the Napa County line, the Carquienz Strait, and the San Pablo Bay. Vallejo is home to Mare Island and the historic Mare Island Naval Shipyard, which was the first naval base established along the Pacific Ocean.
VPD is currently staffed with 74 sworn officers, 34 of whom are assigned to patrol. In 2023, the ratio of officers to population was 0.6, which was well below the national average of 1.6 for cities of this size.1 At present, no detectives are assigned to gang violence because of low staffing, although a former VPD detective continues to work on gang issues in Vallejo in his current role at the DA’s office (including attending and representing Vallejo at the quarterly county gang meeting). In addition, VPD is in talks with the Solano County Sheriff’s Office about supplying a team (one lieutenant, one sergeant, and eight officers) to assist VPD.
VPD’s Crime Suppression Unit was disbanded in July 2013. VPD also previously assigned detectives to the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and other federal task forces but can no longer do so because of low staffing. The department implemented a Crime Reduction Team in 2016, but it was disbanded in 2022. VPD now relies on the US Marshals Service for fugitive apprehension, the FBI for surveillance, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) as needed. VPD is currently not working with any outside entities or community leaders on violence prevention or other issues.
Analysis and Recommendations
To complete this assessment, the SMEs analyzed police data from VPD and identified trends. This assessment report includes findings for this analysis and information learned from the interviews in the following areas:
• Violent crime and shooting call patterns
• Firearm violence locations and networks
• NIBIN lead networks and locations
• Calls for service overview and demographics related to violent crime The assessment team provides several recommendations in the above areas, highlighting the following actions as critical for effective and successful violence reduction in Vallejo:
• Identify and maintain minimum staffing levels in both patrol and investigations. • Build analytic capacity with additional crime analysts. • Develop a comprehensive plan to analyze and use information generated from NIBIN leads data. • Develop partnerships with community organizations to encourage prevention and intervention efforts. • Focus enforcement resources on the prolific individuals and groups involved in shootings. 1 Sean E. Goodison, Local Police Departments Personnel, 2020, DOJ, Nov. 2022, https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/ media/document/lpdp20.pdf.
OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
PAGE 6
To assist VPD with implementing the recommendations listed in this report, the SMEs have provided suggested timeframes for implementing each recommendation, which can be found in Appendix C. Throughout the body of this report, each recommendation is paired with an icon indicating either short term or long term. The short- term timeframe refers to recommendations that the SMEs suggest the agency implements within one year. The long-term timeframe refers to recommendations that the SMEs suggest the agency implements in a period of one to two years. As part of the assessment process, the PSP site team will work with VPD to review and prioritize the recommendations as part of an implementation plan that will be tracked through the PSP engagement. TTA to implement these recommendations is available through PSP upon request.
Recommendations Key
Short-Term
Recommendation
Long-Term
Recommendation
PAGE 7
1. VIOLENT CRIME AND SHOOTING CALL PATTERNS
Violent Crime in Vallejo
According to the interviewees, violent crime trends have changed over the last five years. Before 2021, most of Vallejo’s violent crime and shootings were related to gang crime, which involved neighborhood-based issues (north, south, east, west). Gangs claimed neighborhoods more so than specific gang sets. The gangs in Vallejo are mostly Surenos and Nortenos, although some gangs consist of Black gang members. Investigators noted that since 2021, they have not been able to identify any real violent crime patterns, such as repeat people, places, or motives, across incidents. According to VPD investigators, current violent crime does not appear to be gang or group related.
Shooting-Related Calls for Service
Calls for service data reveal that there were 1,841 shooting-related calls during the two-year period from May 2022 to April 2024. Figure 1 shows the trend by month, with an average of 77 calls per month. Shooting-related calls trended slightly downward, although there was a spike of 104 calls in December 2023.
Figure 1. Shots fired calls for service
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PAGE 8
Figure 2 breaks down these calls by day and time. There is a significant cluster (50 percent) of calls from 8:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. (hour 20 to hour 1 in Figure 2), especially on Fridays and Saturdays.
Figure 2. Shots fired by day and hour
Violent and Gun Crime Incidents
Between May 2022 and April 2024, there were 3,553 violent and gun-related crime incidents; of these, 716 were gun related. More than one-third (n=1,209) of all crimes involved family violence (intimate partner, child, or elder abuse), including 30 of the gun crimes. Table 1 shows the type of offense in descending count order.
This count reflects the first offense listed (up to 10 offenses can be listed), unless it was not gun related (such as reckless driving, vandalism, and evading a peace officer), and then the first gun-related offense was used.
Two offense types—assault with a firearm and shooting at an inhabited dwelling or vehicle—account for half of all gun-related crimes.
Table 1. Violent and gun crime incidents
OFFENSE COUNT
Assault with a firearm 200
Shoot at inhabited dwelling, vehicle, etc. 151
Carry concealed weapon or loaded firearm 84
Exhibit firearm or concealed firearm (including in a threatening manner) 53 Robbery or carjacking 46
Shoot at unoccupied dwelling, vehicle, etc. 42
Willful discharge of firearm in grossly negligent manner 38 Possession of a firearm by felon, addict, or prohibited person 24 Domestic violence, child abuse, or cruelty 18
Murder or attempted murder 17
Threat with intent to terrorize 12
Ill firearm discharge with negligence 8
Manufacture or sale of large-capacity magazines; prohibited person possessing ammunition 7 0 20
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PAGE 9
OFFENSE COUNT
Brandishing firearm replica 4
Grand theft—firearm 4
Possess or buy a firearm without id mark or serial # 3
Minor possession of handgun 2
Possession of machine gun or assault weapon 2
Possess, own, or purchase body armor by violent felon 1 Figure 3 shows monthly totals of gun crimes by occurrence month. Although there were a few spikes (in September 2022, January 2023, and July 2023), gun crime incidents have been trending down.2 Figure 3. Gun crimes by occurrence month
Figure 4 displays gun crimes by day and time. Gun crime incidents occur at an increasing rate into the evening but drop off after 1:00 a.m. More than one-third (34 percent) of all gun crimes occur from 8:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m.
Figure 4. Gun crimes by day and time
2 The data reflect occurrence date, not reported date. The recent few months are likely to have more incidents that were reported after April 2024.
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Trespass
DV (incl violation of order)
Traffic Collision
Family/Juvenile Disturbance
Traffic Hazard/Control
Customer Disturbance
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
Ma
y22
Ju
n22Ju
l22
Aug22Sep2
2 Oc
t22
No
v22
De
c22Ja
n23
Feb2
3 Ma
r23
Apr23Ma
y23
Ju
n23Ju
l23
Aug23Sep2
3 Oc
t23
Nov23De
c23Ja
n24
Feb24Ma
r24
Apr24
0 50
100
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567891 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 30 1234
Hour of the Day
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
40 45
May 22
Jun 22
Jul 22
Aug 22
Sep 22
Oct 22
Nov 22
Dec 22
Jan 23
Feb 23
Mar 23
Apr 23
May 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Oct 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Jan 24
Feb 24
Mar 24
Apr 24
0 10
20 30
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56789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 01234
Hour of the Day
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
0 500
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3000
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4000
4500
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 5555
4220
3568
2464
1950 1696 1411 1243 1227 1090 993 904 867 709 684
0 1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
911 Hangup
Susp
Circumstances/Person/Vehicle
Alarm
Welfare Check
Verbal Fight
Vehicle Theft
Assault
Grand/Petty Theft
Mental Disturbed Subject
Trespass
DV (incl violation of order)
Traffic Collision
Family/Juvenile Disturbance
Traffic Hazard/Control
Customer Disturbance
PAGE 10
Recommendations:
1.1: Continue to analyze shooting-related calls for service and gun-related crimes on a regular basis.
The data indicate high levels of gun violence, primarily in the evenings into early morning. VPD should expand this analysis by adding the most recent three months to see whether the trends continue, and it should monitor these trends monthly thereafter. VPD should then share this information with other stakeholders to create coordinated responses.
1.2: Develop partnerships with community organizations to encourage prevention and intervention efforts.
Although the police department can and should develop a more robust response, violence reduction can be more efficiently achieved if all partners in Vallejo work together. In a healthy and ideal public safety system, all organizations that engage with an aspect of firearm violence, whether through prevention or intervention, should coordinate through intentional and defined relationships. A public safety system should include law enforcement partners, community-based organizations (CBOs), hospitals, government agencies, and schools, as well as respected community members with lived experience. Each organization plays a different role in firearm violence intervention and prevention and can offer different resources to reduce firearm violence. For example, schools can provide conflict resolution education, CBOs can provide needed essential resources (e.g., housing, jobs, food), law enforcement can analyze firearm violence data to identify individuals at risk of being a victim of firearm violence, respected community members with lived experience can mentor or reason with individuals involved in firearm violence, and hospitals can connect firearm violence victims to service providers. Each partnership in the public safety ecosystem plays a vital role in promoting public safety. The current response to violence in Vallejo should not be framed as simply a law enforcement issue—all partners are needed to change these patterns.
PAGE 11
2. FIREARM VIOLENCE LOCATIONS AND NETWORKS
Following the descriptive analysis of violent crime and shooting calls, the SMEs mapped the gun-related violent crimes and shooting calls for service to identify hot spots. The police department and hospitals were excluded.
Figures 5 and 6 depict the citywide violent gun crime and shooting-related calls for service patterns. Both violent gun crime and shooting-related calls are occurring throughout the city, but there are several hot spot areas and locations of concern. For gun crimes, 20 addresses were the locations of three or more crimes during the two-year period (May 2022 to April 2024). For calls for service, 15 intersections had five or more calls, and 25 street segments (i.e., 2000 block of Solano) had four or more calls during the same two-year period.
Figure 5. Violent crime incidents involving a firearm
PAGE 12
Figure 6. Shooting-related calls for service
PAGE 13
Of the 716 gun-related crime incidents during the two-year period, arrests were made for only 174 incidents (24.3 percent). Social network analysis (SNA) was used to examine the connections between incidents and people.1 SNA is both a tool and a methodology that reveals and assesses the relationships between entities (e.g., persons, places, guns) along with the patterns and consequences of these relationships. The network below (Figure 7) shows the two-mode network (incidents and people) from those 174 arrests. It shows 174 gun-related crime incidents (red dots) and 211 individuals (blue dots). The lines indicate which people were arrested for which gun crimes. The cluster in the top left of Figure 7 shows a red dot with six lines that are each connecting to a blue dot, which indicates one gun-related incident (red dot) and the six people arrested during that incident (six blue dots). The network analysis demonstrates that arrests have not reached the point of fully detecting the network of individuals engaged in violent crime. Although it is possible that the criminal networks in Vallejo are disconnected, the arrest rate is too low to provide sufficient information about the networks that may or may not exist at the person level.
Figure 7. Two-mode network of gun crimes and arrests
Figures 8 and 9 are zoomed in maps of two areas that have historically been hot spots. These areas have a high concentration of calls and crimes in proximity. In both hot spot areas, there were numerous calls and gun crimes in the blocks surrounding schools (at the north part of Figure 8 and the central part of Figure 9). 1 See Appendix B for an introduction to SNA.
PAGE 14
Figure 8. Map of gun-related crimes and calls
PAGE 15
Figure 9. Map of gun-related crimes and calls
PAGE 16
Recommendations:
2.1: Identify and maintain minimum staffing levels in both patrol and investigations to support increasing arrests of individuals responsible for violent gun crimes.
The network analysis of individuals associated with violent gun crimes indicated that networks were disconnected, likely because most of the incidents did not result in arrests. We were unable to detect the person-level networks associated with violence given the lack of available data. VPD should dedicate more resources to investigating these crimes.
2.2: Build analytic capacity with additional crime analysts.
One crime analyst is not sufficient to conduct and support the necessary analyses for Vallejo to reduce violence. Additional crime analyst capacity is needed to support crime prevention strategies, especially firearm violence reduction tools such as SNA. Without such analytic support, it will be difficult to implement and sustain a healthy crime reduction strategy. If funding is not available in the short term, the agency should consider applying for assistance through programs such as the Crime Analyst in Residence Program or consider incorporating interns or research partners.
PAGE 17
3. NIBIN LEAD NETWORKS AND LOCATIONS
During the onsite meetings, participants described gun trafficking and ghost guns as significant problems in Vallejo. Local experts also noted that it is easy to buy guns in Vallejo, and many are sold through social media channels, such as Instagram and Telegram. Because of low staffing, VPD had a backlog of confiscated firearms that went untested, but it has recently caught up. The department currently sends all casings to ATF Dublin, and the DA’s office runs the forensic lab for other testing. VPD is working to transfer NIBIN casings to the Fairfield Police Department, which is the only neighboring department with a NIBIN machine. The crime analyst receives reports from ATF (shared with the SMEs for this assessment). The California Department of Justice Lab, the Bureau of Forensic Services, conducts ballistics analysis.
Analysis of NIBIN data revealed 230 unique crime guns with 691 gun-to-incident connections. Because every incident can have more than one gun and every gun can be used in more than one incident, the SMEs counted the number of times a gun was linked to an incident, which is called “gun-to-incident connections.” Figure 10 displays a sociogram (network picture) of these connects. The three largest clusters of NIBIN connections are included along with maps of where these incidents occurred (Figures 10 through 15). The yellow dots are crime guns, and the green dots are incidents. The label for the green dots is the jurisdiction and the incident number.
The three clusters reveal a few important dynamics. First, there appears to be significant networks of firearms.
That is, the same firearm is showing up at different incidents, indicating that it is either being used by the same individuals or being passed among individuals. Some guns remain active for years. In Cluster 1, for example, crime gun was connected to 11 incidents across four jurisdictions from 2016 to 2023, including assaults, an attempted homicide, shooting at a building or vehicle, and a homicide. At times, these incidents also cluster geographically. In the NIBIN Cluster 2 network (Figure 13), more than 10 incidents that are connected through the firearm used were all within a small geographic area. This firearm was likely being used by the same person or a closely connected group of individuals. Patterns such as these need to be identified as they develop and then actively investigated.
Figure 10. NIBIN Cluster 1
PAGE 18
Figure 11. NIBIN Cluster 1 map
PAGE 19
Figure 12. NIBIN Cluster 2
Figure 13. NIBIN Cluster 2 map
PAGE 20
Figure 14. NIBIN Cluster 3
Figure 15. NIBIN Cluster 3 map
PAGE 21
Table 2 shows the list of firearms identified by NIBIN and the number of connected incidents. As discussed above, firearm was connected to 11 crimes. There are two firearms each connected to seven incidents. Some firearms, known as “crime guns,” are used multiple times and remain active for long periods of time, being transferred through social networks.
Table 2. List of firearms and the number of connected incidents Firearm ID number Number of
incidents
11 7
7 6
6 6
6 5
5 5
5 5
Recommendations:
3.1: Develop a comprehensive plan to analyze and use NIBIN lead data.
Analysts should maintain the networks of NIBIN leads and include mapping and details on persons involved in the most central shootings. A shooting that is central is connected to many other shootings. By using NIBIN, VPD can better prioritize its investigative resources to ensure that shootings most central to the violent crime networks are being solved, which will likely result in additional case leads. This effort is the best way to maximize efficiency and have the greatest effect on future violence.
3.2: Identify an investigative unit, either locally or regionally, that can focus on individuals and groups involved in gun violence.
VPD should conduct investigative follow-up for the analysis that is produced. Currently, it does not appear that Vallejo has the resources for proactive investigations. Moving forward, detectives should be dedicated to understanding and solving the cases in NIBIN-related shooting networks. Firearms used in Vallejo are also being used in neighboring jurisdictions. More than half (56 percent) of the 689 NIBIN leads are connected to VPD cases. Thirty-six additional cases are from other cities in Solano County, and 72 cases are from Oakland in Alameda County. VPD should consider working with the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center or federal law enforcement agency partners on this problem.
PAGE 22
VPD has a genuine commitment to violence reduction; however, it currently lacks the resources necessary to ensure adequate responses to violent crime or to develop a proactive violence reduction strategy. Key milestones involve identifying partner agencies (both governmental and community based), increasing staffing (patrol, investigations, and analytic support), and routinely applying the analyses conducted in this assessment to focus on the hot spots, prolific offenders, and groups involved in the majority of the shooting and violence.
CONCLUSION
PAGE 23
Julie Wartell, MPA
Julie Wartell has spent more than 25 years working with local, state, and federal criminal justice agencies and communities on crime analysis, research, and prevention. She has served as a crime analyst for police and prosecution, managed a regional crime mapping initiative, conducted research and evaluation for nonprofits, served as a National Institute of Justice fellow, and served as an independent advisor. Ms. Wartell has performed a wide range of research and analysis of crime problems, conducted studies of police and prosecutor processes, and assessed information technologies used in crime analysis. She has conducted extensive training and presentations for officers, prosecutors, analysts, and community members internationally on topics relating to crime analysis and problem-solving. She has edited or authored numerous publications and teaches and conducts research at the University of California–San Diego. Ms. Wartell has an MPA from San Diego State University and a postgraduate diploma in applied criminology and police management from the University of Cambridge, UK.
Andrew M. Fox, PhD
Andrew M. Fox is a research and evaluation supervisor in the Office of Innovation, Alignment, and Accountability in the Washington State Department of Children, Youth, and Families. He was previously an assistant professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City and California State University, Fresno. He received his PhD from Arizona State University in criminology and criminal justice. His research interests include social network analysis (SNA), delinquency, gangs, crime prevention, and communities. Mr. Fox has served as a research partner for several federal initiatives, including Strategies for Policing Innovation, Innovative Prosecution Solutions, and the Police-Prosecution Partnership. He is also a subject matter expert in SNA for the Bureau of Justice Assistance National Public Safety Partnership. His work has been published in the Pan American Journal of Public Health, Crime and Delinquency, Justice Quarterly, Police Quarterly, and the American Sociological Review.
APPENDIX A: SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS (ASSESSMENT TEAM)
PAGE 24
Social network analysis (SNA) is both a tool and a methodology that reveals and assesses the relationships between entities (e.g., persons, places, guns) along with the patterns and consequences of these relationships (Wasserman & Faust, 1994).1 Specifically, SNA uncovers the social environment, which reflects the patterns or consistencies of relationships between the entities that can be used to understand larger societal matters, including firearm violence. Key components of SNA include actors, ties, and social networks. Actors are the social entities that the analysis aims to understand the connections among. In general, actors represent individuals because the overall goal is often to understand how individuals are connected in order to explain a certain behavior such as firearm violence. Actors are connected through ties, which can take many forms and describe how two individuals are associated. In the context of firearm violence, these ties frequently represent a co-arrest between two individuals (for example, Papachristos et al., 2015). Likewise, a social network refers to a defined set of actors and ties between them. Using data, such as co-arrests, SNA can visually display the social network, known as a “sociogram.” The node (dot) represents the entity (e.g., actor), and the edge (tie) represents the connection between actors.
Moreover, SNA uses calculations to represent how individuals are connected, both directly and indirectly, potentially influencing the behaviors of individuals within the network. Understanding how individuals are connected has implications for real-world issues, such as firearm violence prevention, because behaviors cluster within social networks (Christakis & Fowler, 2009). As such, firearm violence and the beliefs around the use of firearms can cluster in specific social networks (Papachristos et al., 2015). Further, SNA can identify individuals who are the most connected to others in the network (highest degree centrality), which can indicate the individual is where the action is.2 In the context of firearm violence, individuals who have the highest degree centrality (i.e., those with the most connections) have the most direct contact to others in the network. These individuals could serve as an integral source of information such as which individuals or groups have ongoing disputes and where to access firearms. Equally important, through this process, SNA can identify who can serve as “bridges” between individuals in the network (Wasserman & Faust, 1994). In firearm violence social networks, individuals who act as bridges between otherwise unrelated groups of individuals could spread messages that would promote firearm violence.
As an emerging evidenced-based strategy, SNA can be used to bolster intelligence and solve crimes, including firearm violence, by identifying those who are driving firearm violence (Papachristos et al., 2015). As an investigative tool, SNA can aid law enforcement agencies in the investigations of firearm violence incidents, providing critical insight into the criminal networks operating in the jurisdiction responsible for the majority of firearm violence. This tool can be used in both small and large cities to connect the dots and help uncover seemingly unconnected people, thus revealing larger networks and the relationship among them (Papachristos & Sierra-Arévalo, 2018). The results from SNA can be used to more effectively disrupt criminal groups, spread antiviolence campaigns, and gather additional intelligence (Johnson & Reitzel, 2011). As a preventive strategy, based on previous studies, SNA can be used to identify those at risk of being victimized by a firearm (Papachristos et al., 2015). Relatedly, SNA can assist in the deployment of limited prevention and intervention resources, thus it can be used to strengthen the relationship between law enforcement and the community (Papachristos & Sierra-Arévalo, 2018).
1 This SNA overview was adapted from Maike, Gill, and Fox (2023). Firearm Violence Social Network Analysis Project. Maike and Associates.
2 Degree centrality is a measure that reflects the number of direct connections an entity has, with a higher score indicating the individual has more direct connections (Wasserman & Faust, 1994). For instance, an individual who has been arrested for firearm offenses with 10 other individuals has a higher degree centrality score than an individual who has been arrested for firearm offens- es with two other individuals.
APPENDIX B: ABOUT SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS
PAGE 25
References
Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2009). Connected: The surprising power of our social networks and how they shape our lives. Little, Brown Spark.
Johnson, J. A., & Reitzel, J. D. (2011). Social network analysis in an operational environment: Defining the utility of a network approach for crime analysis using the Richmond City Police Department as a case study. In International Police Executive Symposium.
Papachristos, A. V., & Sierra-Arévalo, M. (2018). Policing the connected world: Using social network analysis in police-community partnerships. U.S. Department of Justice, Washington, DC, USA, Tech. Rep. COPS-W0859.
Papachristos, A. V., Wildeman, C., & Roberto, E. (2015). Tragic, but not random: The social contagion of nonfatal gunshot injuries. Social Science & Medicine, 125, 139–150.
Wasserman, S., & Faust, K. (1994). Social network analysis: Methods and applications.
PAGE 26
# RECOMMENDATION CATEGORY AUDIENCE TIME
FRAME
1.1 Continue to analyze shooting-related calls for service and gun-related crimes on a regular basis.
Violent crime and shooting call
patterns Crime analyst 1 to 3 months
1.2 Develop partnerships with community organizations to encourage prevention and intervention efforts.
Violent crime and shooting call
patterns
VPD
leadership 3 to 6 months
2.1 Identify and maintain minimum staffing levels in both patrol and investigations to support increasing arrests of individuals responsible for violent gun crimes.
Firearm violence locations and
networks
VPD
leadership and
city leadership
1 to 2 years
2.2 Build analytic capacity with additional crime analysts. Firearm violence locations and networks
VPD
leadership
6 months to 1
year
3.1 Develop a comprehensive plan to analyze and use NIBIN lead data. NIBIN lead networks and locations
Investigations
Division 3 to 6 months
3.2 Identify an investigative unit, either locally or regionally, that can focus on individuals and groups involved in gun violence.
NIBIN lead networks and
locations
VPD
leadership
6 months to 1
year
APPENDIX C: RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE AND TIMELINE
PAGE 27
The following section describes Vallejo’s overall calls for service, violent crime, and demographic patterns of victims and suspects.
Calls for Service
There were nearly 41,000 citizen-initiated calls for service in the 12-month period from August 2023 through July 2024. Figure 16 reflects the monthly counts. As expected, the number of calls during the summer months was higher.
Figure 16. Citizen-initiated calls for service
Figure 17 reflects the 15 most frequent call types (based on final call type). After a 911 hang-up (a citizen calls 911 and subsequently hangs up), suspicious person, vehicle, or circumstance is the most common, accounting for more than 10 percent of all calls.
Figure 17. Top 15 citizen-initiated calls for service
ADDENDUM: ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS
0 20
40 60
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Ma
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l22
Aug22Sep2
2 Oc
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Feb2
3 Ma
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Apr23Ma
y23
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n23Ju
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Nov23De
c23Ja
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Feb24Ma
r24
Apr24
0 50
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567891 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 30 1234
Hour of the Day
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
40 45
May 22
Jun 22
Jul 22
Aug 22
Sep 22
Oct 22
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Mar 23
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May 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
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Nov 23
Dec 23
Jan 24
Feb 24
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Apr 24
0 10
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60 70
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Hour of the Day
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0 500
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1500
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2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 5555
4220
3568
2464
1950 1696 1411 1243 1227 1090 993 904 867 709 684
0 1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
911 Hangup
Susp
Circumstances/Person/Vehicle
Alarm
Welfare Check
Verbal Fight
Vehicle Theft
Assault
Grand/Petty Theft
Mental Disturbed Subject
Trespass
DV (incl violation of order)
Traffic Collision
Family/Juvenile Disturbance
Traffic Hazard/Control
Customer Disturbance
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
Ma
y22
Ju
n22Ju
l22
Aug22Sep2
2 Oc
t22
No
v22
De
c22Ja
n23
Feb2
3 Ma
r23
Apr23Ma
y23
Ju
n23Ju
l23
Aug23Sep2
3 Oc
t23
Nov23De
c23Ja
n24
Feb24Ma
r24
Apr24
0 50
100
150
200
250
567891 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 30 1234
Hour of the Day
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
40 45
May 22
Jun 22
Jul 22
Aug 22
Sep 22
Oct 22
Nov 22
Dec 22
Jan 23
Feb 23
Mar 23
Apr 23
May 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Oct 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Jan 24
Feb 24
Mar 24
Apr 24
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
56789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 01234
Hour of the Day
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
0 500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 5555
4220
3568
2464
1950 1696 1411 1243 1227 1090 993 904 867 709 684
0 1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
911 Hangup
Susp
Circumstances/Person/Vehicle
Alarm
Welfare Check
Verbal Fight
Vehicle Theft
Assault
Grand/Petty Theft
Mental Disturbed Subject
Trespass
DV (incl violation of order)
Traffic Collision
Family/Juvenile Disturbance
Traffic Hazard/Control
Customer Disturbance
PAGE 28
Table 3 shows calls for service by day of the week and hour of the day. Call volume tends to increase around 10:00 a.m. and lessens around 8:00 p.m., with the exception of Friday and Saturday nights.
Table 3. Calls for service by day of the week and hour
PAGE 29
Overview of all Violent Crime
We included the following violent crime types in the below analysis: murder, rape/sexual assault, robbery, assault/battery, arson, shooting and weapon-related, and elder and child abuse. There were 3,562 cases. Of these, 20 percent (n=716) were gun related, and 34 percent (n=1,215) involved family violence (domestic, elder or child abuse/assault). The vast majority (more than 1,000) involved domestic violence.
Table 4 shows the top addresses for the family violence cases.
Table 4. Top addresses for family violence
Address Cases
22 16
12 11
10 Demographics of Victims and Offenders
Table 5 shows the demographics for overall violent crime, gun crime, and family violence. This analysis is based on the victims and suspects (arrest, charged, or detained), not the crime incidents. Notably, Hispanic and Latino is collected as both a race and an ethnicity and is reported as both, accordingly. Figures 19 through 21 graphically display the age, sex, and race distributions of victims and suspects for these three crime categories.
Table 5 indicates that the 25-to-34-year age group made up the majority of victims and suspects for violent crimes, gun crimes, and family violence incidents with the exception of gun crime suspects. 18-to-24-year- olds were slightly more likely to be suspects in gun crimes (32 percent versus 31 percent). Females were most often the victims of both violent and family violence incidents, whereas males were most commonly the perpetrators. Males were most often the perpetrators and victims of gun crime incidents. From May 2022 to April 2024, Black and Hispanic individuals were most commonly victims and suspects across all three crime types relative to the other race categories, with the exception of gun crimes. White individuals made up the second largest racial group of suspects of gun crime incidents behind Black individuals. In terms of ethnicity, non-Hispanic individuals were most often the victims and suspects across all three crime types.
Table 5. Vallejo demographic profiles by violent crime subgroup (May 2022 to April 2024) Violent crimes Gun crimes Family violence
Victim Suspect Victim Suspect Victim Suspect
Age (mean) 38.1 36.2 38.3 31.0 35.8 38.3
Age:
Under 5 years 2% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0%
5 to 17 years 8% 3% 6% 6% 11% 0%
18 to 24 years 13% 17% 16% 32% 12% 11%
25 to 34 years 26% 33% 24% 31% 28% 34%
35 to 44 years 21% 23% 23% 16% 21% 30%
45 to 64 years 22% 21% 21% 12% 16% 21%
PAGE 30
Violent crimes Gun crimes Family violence
Victim Suspect Victim Suspect Victim Suspect
65 years and
over
8% 3% 9% 3% 8% 4%
Sex:
Male 45% 78% 61% 90% 25% 77%
Female 54% 22% 38% 10% 75% 23%
Other/
unknown
0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race:
AI/AN 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Asian/PI 10% 8% 8% 6% 8% 9%
Black 33% 50% 40% 62% 36% 39%
Hispanic 30% 22% 30% 14% 29% 31%
White 21% 19% 17% 16% 21% 18%
Other/
unknown
5% 2% 6% 0% 6% 2%
Ethnicity:
Hispanic 30% 23% 30% 15% 30% 31%
Not Hispanic 49% 57% 51% 66% 51% 51%
Unknown 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18%
Number of individuals 3,734 995 721 225 1,273 459
Figures 19, 20, and 21 further display the breakdown of victims and suspects of violent crime by age, sex, and race.
Figure 19. Age category of victims and suspects of violent crime
PAGE 31
Figure 20. Sex of victims and suspects of violent crimes Figure 21. Race of victims and suspects of violent crimes
Dawn Abrahamson, Please distribute the following as a Public Comment for tonight's Special Meeting. Your Honor, Council CM Murray, ACM Haen & CA Nebb, The following email, with attachment, was sent to me from VPD's Sargent Rashad Hollis, PIO. The attachment is a report on Crime Trends in U.S. Cities Year-End 2024 Update and states in brief: Per DOJ- • Ages 15–24: This is the age range with the highest overall offending rates, especially for violent and property crimes. • Peak Offending Age: o For violent crimes (e.g. assault, robbery): around age 18–20 o For property crimes (e.g. theft, burglary): often slightly younger, around age 16–18 • Criminal behavior tends to decline significantly after age 25, a phenomenon known as the age-crime curve. Based on DOJ/BJS data: • Violent crime arrests (e.g., assault, robbery): peak around age 18–20 • Property crime arrests (e.g., theft, burglary): peak earlier, typically around age 16 • Federal arrest and crime-report data show that offending rates peak in the early 20s, particularly ages 20–24 for all offenses, and decline steadily afterward. While this may not be the exact topic for this evening's discussion I feel, as this council's appointment to GVRD, that this is information worthy of your attention. In researching ways that other agencies in the U.S. have addressed these age related issues, Google returned no less than half a dozen formal studies spanning the last few decades demonstrating a reduction in call outs, and property & violent crimes; with an increase in positive life outcomes in those communities that increased the offerings of structured activities between the hours of 2 p.m. and 6 p.m, as well as others.
As we engage in this very discussion at GVRD, we have quickly come to realize that in order to be truly effective with this information, that clear and constant communication with our community partners is essential. Each of Vallejo's & Solano County's various organizations, both public and private, offer a different solution piece to this common puzzle. We have all recently witnessed and applauded, the return of Late Night basketball. An activity historically proven in our town, and elsewhere, to significantly reduce the number of emergency calls on nights it is available for Transitional Age Youth. In strict economic terms, paying for a police force is considered an Economic Bad. I posit that investing out collective time, and treasure, in our young people; given the substantial amount of historical data proving positive outcomes for both the young individuals as well as their communities; would be not only considered an Economic Good but a wise thing for our community as a whole to do. I ask that you please consider calling together our partners in the county to discuss how to forestall this age-crime curve in our community. Additionally, this same group could easily have a related discussion on community disaster preparedness in which GVRD, the current steward of Vallejo's community centers, would be an engaged partner. Thank you for your time and service, Thomas Judt Board Director Greater Vallejo Recreation District From: Rashad Hollis <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2025 12:20 AM
To: Thomas Judt (Board) <[email protected]> Subject: Re: TA Youth Crime Information?
Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2024 Update - Council on Criminal Justice counciloncj.org Per DOJ- • Ages 15–24: This is the age range with the highest overall offending rates, especially for violent and property crimes. • Peak Offending Age: o For violent crimes (e.g. assault, robbery): around age 18–20 o For property crimes (e.g. theft, burglary): often slightly younger, around age 16–18 • Criminal behavior tends to decline significantly after age 25, a phenomenon known as the age-crime curve. Based on DOJ/BJS data: • Violent crime arrests (e.g., assault, robbery): peak around age 18–20 [CAUTION: This email originated outside of the Greater Vallejo Recreation District email system. DO NOT CLICK on links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and are sure that the content is safe. Contact the sender or your IT Dept if you are unsure.] • Property crime arrests (e.g., theft, burglary): peak earlier, typically around age 16 • Federal arrest and crime‐report data show that offending rates peak in the early 20s, particularly ages 20–24 for all offenses, and decline steadily afterward. Sgt. Rashad Hollis #675 Community Engagement and Public Information Sergeant Vallejo Police Department M: (707) 567 4233 [email protected] [email protected]