CONFIRMATION UNDER THE NCPA SHARED SERVICES PROGRAM
Effective Date: → 2023
Project Description: Development of Integrated Resource Plan Sponsor: Southern California Public Power Authority ("SCPPA") Participating SCPPA Member: City of Vernon/Vernon Public Utilities ('Participating Member" or "Vernon")
Consultant: Ascend Analytics, LIC ("Ascend" or "Consultant")
1. The Northern California Power Agency ("NCPA") and SCPPA executed a Shared Services Agreement effective August 1, 2015, authorizing among other things, the purchase or acquisition of goods and services by each Party or a Party's Members where provision has been provided in contracts for the other Party and its Members to avail themselves of goods and services offered under the contract or where either Party's bidder or Consultant is willing to extend prices to the other Party and its Members.
2. This is a Confirmation pursuant to the Shared Services Agreement and subject to the terms and conditions of that agreement, except as expressly provided herein.
3. Consultant, SCPPA, NCPA, and Participating SCPPA Member ("Participating Member") identified above, agree that Consultant shall provide the Services specified herein pursuant to the terms and conditions of the Multi-Task Consulting Services Agreement between the Northern California Power Agency and Ascend Analytics, LLC ("Agreement"') dated August 31, 2022.
4. The Participating Member for this Confirmation is the City of Vernon/Vernon Public Utilities ("Vernon") in the total amount of not-to-exceed $372,735.00 ("Maximum Amount") to be paid on a task completed basis, which shall include all fees, costs, reimbursables, and expenses, for the services from Ascend Analytics, LLC, described in paragraph 5. The amount includes a ten percent (10%) contingency.
This dollar amount is not a guarantee that the full amount will be paid to Consultant, but is merely a limit of potential expenditures under this Confirmation.
Consultant shall provide notice to NCPA priot to and upon reaching the Maximum Amount. Any services provided by Consultant in excess of this authorization, and without prior execution of an amendment hereto by the Parties, shall be at Consultant's sole risk and without payment. For avoidance of doubt SCPPA, NCPA, and Participating Member shall not be liable for any unauthorized excess billings whatsoever.
5. The Participating SCPPA Member requests the following described Shared Services in the dollar amount specified. NCPA agrees to contract with Ascend Analytics, LLC to provide the following Shared Services to the Participating SCPPA Member:
Ascend Analytics, LIC shall provide services for the development of an Integrated Resource Plan as specifically outlined in Ascend's Proposal dated September 30, 2022, prepared for Vernon Public Utilities - Electric Enterprise, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit "A" and incorporated herein by reference. The services are requested to begin in December 2022, or as soon thereafter as possible, and continue through June 14, 2024.
Confirmation No. 0282
6. The Participating Member agrees to pay for the services in the amount set forth in paragraph 4 above; plus, the administrative fees in the amount not-to-exceed $1,510.00 (calculated at $685.00 for development of the Confirmation and first month's processing, plus $165.00 per month for 5 possible additional months, billed as administrative costs are actually incurred). The Participating Member agrees to make monthly payments to NCPA, based on invoices received, for services satisfactorily performed and for authorized reimbursable costs incurred. Invoices are due and payable from Participating Member to NCPA upon receipt. The total amount expended under this Confirmation will not exceed $374,245.00.
7. Consultant acknowledges and agrees that Participating Member through this Confirmation obtains the benefits of the Agreement including the indemnities described in Section 5.2 wherein "Agency" is replaced by "Agency and City of Vernon/Vernon Public Utilities" throughout Section 5.2.
8. A Security Account deposit is not required for this Confirmation.
9. The representatives of Sponsor and Participating Member are as follows:
Sponsor Representative:
Michael S. Webster
Executive Director
Southern California Public Power Authority
1160 Nicole Court
Glendora, CA 91740
Participating Member Representative:
Todd Dusenberry, General Manager
Vernon Public Utilities
4305 Santa Fe Avenue
Vernon, CA 90058
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties have signed this Confirmation effective as of the date first written above.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA POWER AGENCY
By:
RANDY S. HOWARD
General Manager
Approved as to form:
Confirmation No. 0282
Boys orie
By:
GARY DORRIS, PhD
Chief Executive Officer
Sponsor's Acknowledgement and Agreement
By signing this Task Order, SCPPA agrees that it is responsible for payment to Consultant for all fees and expenses invoiced by Consultant in accordance with Section 5, above, and will be responsible for all payment obligations incurred in connection with the work performed at the direction of or on behalf of Participating SCPPA Member, City of Vernon/Vernon Public Utilities. SCPPA agrees to indemnify, defend, and hold NCPA and all NCA members harmless for payment for work performed at the direction of, and for the exclusive benefit of Participating SCPPA Member.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUBLIC POWER AUTHORITY
By:
Michael E. Webster, Executive Director
Approved as to form:
Armando Arballo, Assistant General Counsel
Participating SCPPA Member's Acknowledgement and Agreement Participating SCPPA Member, City of Vernon/Vernon Public Utilities, agrees to indemnify, defend and hold harmless NCPA, and all other members and their respective directors, officers, agents, representatives, empore, ucso and seei rems and agatorny fool loses by NCA in connecto vidas, work performed for the benefit of, or on behalf of, Participating Member pursuant to the Agreement, except for the gross negligence or willful misconduct of NCPA or such other NCPA members, and their
CITY OF VERNON/VERNON PUBLIC UTILITIES
Todd Dusenberry, General Manager
And
City Attorney
Confirmation No. 0282
EXHIBIT "A"
Ascend Analytics '
Better models. Better decisions.
Proposal
Development of an Integrated Resource Plan
Prepared for:
Vernon Public Utilities - Electric Enterprise
September 30, 2022
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Ascend
Analytics to Power the Energy Transition
Ascend Analytics (Ascend) is pleased to submit this proposal to support Vernon Public Utilities (VPU) to develop their 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). Ascend is a nationally recognized leader in power system resource planning, bringing advanced risk-based analytics to capture the changing market dynamics that are emerging during this time of energy transition. Ascend is an 100-person analytics software and advisory services firm based in Boulder Colorado. We are 100% focused on the electric power industry, providing analytical solutions and consulting support for resource planning, power system operations, and portfolio risk management. Ascend brings an advanced approach to resource planning that bridges common gaps in traditional planning, including:
• A widely respected Market Intelligence practice to guide resource retirement and acquisition strategy for a highly uncertain future. Our experts provide real-time monitoring of California policy and regulatory changes as well as power price dynamics based on market data and long-run power system fundamentals.
• Deep expertise in California policy and regulations on the electricity sector, including SB 350 IRPs with the California Energy Commission.
• Advanced capacity expansion and production cost modeling capabilities with PowerSIMM. • An extensive database of operational and capital costs for both traditional thermal assets as well as renewables and storage based on running Request for Offer/Proposal processes throughout the US.
Ascend has a long track record supporting utility resource plans for a rapidly changing energy future, including:
• The 2019 IRPs for Burbank Water and Power, Glendale Water and Power, and Redding Electric. We are currently working with NCPA, IID, LADWP, and Glendale Water and Power on their 2024 IRPs using our PowerSimm software.
• CPUC regulated IRPs for San Jose Clean Energy, East Bay Clean Energy, and Silicon Valley Clean Energy and seven request for offer processes since 2019 on behalf of CCAs.
We thank you for this opportunity and are excited about the possibility of partnering with VPU to support this important planning process!
Daid With
Managing Director, Resource Planning and Procurement
[email protected]
1877 Broadway, Suite 706 Boulder, Colorado 80302
Work phone: +1 970 986 6662
Table of Contents
1. About Ascend's Resource Planning Practice .. ... 5
1.1. General List of Previous Relevant Projects... ... 6
1.2. Organization chart 12
2. Proposed Method to Accomplish the Work. 15
3. High Level Schedule. 20
4. Cost Estimate.. ... 21
Appendix A: About PowerSIMM and Market Intelligence ..22 Ascend Market Intelligence ...23
PowerSIMM Capabilities for Resource Planning... ...24
Appendix B: Selected Resumes ...................... ...27
1. About Ascend's Resource Planning Practice
Ascend has deep experience performing complex resource planning studies for a variety of utilities in the Western United States and California. Please see our detailed project qualifications listed in section 1.1, demonstrating that we have successfully conducted complex resource planning studies for a wide range of utilities with diverse needs. Of course you know us from developing Burbank's 2019 IRP. We have added significant new capabilities and experience since the last round of CEC IRPs. The most notable addition is the creation of Ascend Market Intelligence (Ascend MI).
Ascend MI provides long-term fundamental gas, carbon, and power price curves now widely used by developers, banks, and utilities to inform their long-term planning and valuation activities. They also provide clients across the US with policy and market information geared towards their business needs. This includes tracking federal, regional, and state regulations such as effective load carrying capability (ELCC) values, changing RA requirements, market rules, new market products, and so on.
Ascend's Market Intelligence platform helps utilities and developers find the optimal locations for siting renewable energy and storage projects. We can value any type of project relative to market prices and demonstrate the value relative to VPU's load.
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Figure 1: A screenshot of Ascend's Market Intelligence Platform showing nodal value in the LA Basin for renewable and storage projects.
Ascend has also added RFO/RFP administration and valuation to its business offerings. We run several RFO and RFPs every year in California, providing us with up-to-date information on technology costs and PPA prices for use in VPU's planning. Ascend helps CCAs in California procure PPAs for renewables and storage, including project financial analysis, risk assessment, and ESG scoring. Since 2019 Ascend has helped CCAs and utilities procure over 2 GW of renewable energy and 1.5 GW of battery storage.
In this proposal we provide a detailed description of our capacity expansion and production cost modeling software, PowerSIMM. PowerSIMM uses state-of-the-art modeling to simulate load, renewables, and market prices while maintaining key structural relationships between variables. PowerSIMM's automatic resource selection (ARS) tool finds the least cost/least risk resource plan across the entire set of simulated future states, a major benefit over traditional models that simply optimize over a "typical day" each month. PowerSIMM can model the full range of resources from the traditional fossil fuels to energy storage (batteries, CAES, pumped hydro) to distributed resources (customer solar, EE, DR) and even more experimental solutions such as green hydrogen or carbon capture and storage to achieve California's 2045 net zero carbon target.
Ascend already has Burbank's system modeled (from our previous engagements in the IRP and the EIM study) so we understand and accurately capture your generation resources and your unique transmission topology. Burbank realizes a major savings in staff time and money by going with the Ascend team who is ready to model your system right away!
1.1. General List of Previous Relevant Projects
The following table provides relevant project descriptions and references.
Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
Ascend developed Burbank's 2019 IRP consistent with the requirements of SB 350.
Ascend designed and evaluated 16 resource mix scenarios representing unique combinations of renewables, storage, demand response, energy efficiency, and thermal resources. Ascend evaluated the scenarios for a range of critical metrics including cost, GHG reduction, loss-of-load probability, coincidence with load, and impact from projected market fluctuations during extreme weather events. Ascend and VPU recommended a preferred portfolio and two alternate portfolios that met SB100's 60% RPS requirement and greenhouse gas (GHG)-reduction targets. The preferred portfolio Burbank Water and replaced a large coal-fired facility with solar, wind, and compressed air energy storage.
The other portfolios had more emphasis on batteries and ICEs.
Power (VPU)
SB 350 Integrated Bob Schulte of Schulte Associates LLC (SA) coordinated the overall 2019 IRP Resource Plan
development for VPU. Bob will perform similar program management services as part 2018 - 2019 of the Ascend Team for this proposal. The 2019 IRP was unanimously adopted by City Council and accepted by the California Energy Commission. A former VPU General ElM Benefits Study Manager and then-current Burbank City Manager called the effort: "Most assuredly, VPU's all-time best IRP."
2020
In 2020 Ascend developed an Energy Imbalance Market benefits study for VPU. We modeled VPU's system with 5-minute dispatch to estimate the economic benefits of joining the EIM.
Contributors: Millar (PM, Lead), Katz (modeling)
Reference: Scott Mellon, Power Resources Manager. smellon@ burbankca.gov 818 238-3659 Grant County Public Utility District (Grant Co PUD) is a municipal utility based in Moses Lake, Washington. Grant hired Ascend to develop their 2022 IRP in response to a Grant County PUD
Washington state requirement to meet clean energy targets (Clean Energy Integrated Resource Transformation Act). Grant is a largely hydro utility with growing load and declining Plan hydro resource. Ascend used its PowerSIMM capacity expansion and production cost (2022 Ongoing but model to chose three candidate portfolios, including evaluation of a small modular nearing completion) nuclear option. Once the candidate portfolios were developed the Ascend team ran each portfolio through PowerSIMM's production cost model to determine the cost to serve load, GHG emissions, RPS compliance, resource adequacy and market risk. Ascend Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
is assisting Grant to write their IRP for submission to the State of Washington this fall.
Grant County PUD is also evaluating PowerSIMM to use as their own in-house production cost and planning model.
Contributors: Millar (Engagement Director), Mauch (Analytics lead), Boukarim (PM and lead analyst), Katz (Modeling)
Client Reference: Lisa Stites, Lead Financial Analyst. 785.230.6163. [email protected] Ascend is completing the 2022 Integrated Resource Plan for San Jose Clean Energy (SJCE). SJCE is a community choice aggregator (CCA) serving the energy needs of the City of San Jose, including over 1 million people. Ascend performed a planning exercise to guide internal goal setting and resource procurement strategy as well as a compliance focused IRP for submission to the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC). Ascend used PowerSIMM to model SJCE's current resources as well as optimize San Jose Clean Energy future resource procurement using the automated resource selection (ARS) tool. 2022 Integrated Ascend developed a robust balanced resource plan that incorporates rapidly changing Resource Plan CAISO market dynamics and uncertain regulatory frameworks. (2021 - Current)
Contributors: Millar (Engagement Director), Boukarim (PM and lead analyst), Katz (Modeling)
Client Reference: Jeanne M. Solé
Deputy Director of Power Resources, 200 E. Santa Clara St., 14th Floor San José, CA 95113, 408.535.4867, [email protected]
Ascend works with Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), a licensed PowerSIMM client, to support their resource planning efforts to achieve SB 100 goals Los Angeles
and the Clean Grid LA initiative. Ascend developed a model of LADWP's load, resources, Department of Water
and Power and a transmission model of the LADWP system, including linkages to markets in Utah, Arizona, and Oregon. Ascend performs resource selection and system reliability (LOLE) Integrated Resource analysis for LADWP's portfolio including future portfolios with primarily renewables and Planning, Clean Grid storage. Ascend also performs capacity expansion analyses using Automated Resource LA, Once-through- Selection and sub-hourly valuations of battery storage. Ascend is supporting LADWP's Cooling replacement 2022 IRP effort with software and consulting services. with storage
Contributors: Mauch (PM), Brode (Analyst), Gudladona (Modeler) 2017 - Ongoing
Client Reference: Jay Lim Director Resource Planning. [email protected]. 111 N. Hope Street, Room 940, Los Angeles, CA 90012
GWP, a municipal electric utility in the heart of the Los Angeles basin serving 88,000 Glendale Water and customer accounts, had planned for many years to repower the aging Grayson Power Power (GWP) Plant. The first proposed repower plan, a 262 MW combined cycle natural gas power 2018-2019 plant, was rejected by the Glendale City Council under pressure from local environmental groups. Ascend was asked to help Glendale construct a new zero/low- Clean Energy RFP carbon energy supply portfolio and administer and evaluate a Clean Energy Request for 2019 SB 350 Proposals (RFP) of new capacity resource options to enter service by 2021 as well as Integrated Resources prepare GWP's IRP. California law required the IRP to show at least 60% renewable by Plan 2030, tracking towards 100% carbon-free retail sales by 2045. Ascend's analysis included:
Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
• Valuation of both demand-side and supply side resources, including renewable energy, load reduction, energy storage, and thermal generation. • Valuation of both individual resources and portfolio combinations designed to meet the specific economic and reliability needs of GWP and its customer base Ascend developed an optimized resource plan that included a combination of DERS, utility-scale battery storage, and reciprocating engines for reliability services. Ascend performed LOLP for reliability analysis including planning for N-1-1 events such as a wildfire across transmission lines. By including emissions offsets from the transportation sector, GWP could balance out their emissions by as early as 2030. The plan was widely hailed by stakeholders and passed City Council with a unanimous 5-0 vote. Steve Zurn, General Manager of GWP said, "we could not have accomplished these ambitious goals to decarbonize our power supply portfolio without Ascend. From start to finish, Ascend navigated a very challenging environment with great skill supported by outstanding analytic insight."
Contributors: Dorris (Engagement Director), Millar (PM), Mauch (Analytics Lead), Katz (Modeling)
Client Reference: Chie Valdez, Power Resources Director. [email protected] 141 N. Glendale Ave, Level 4 Glendale CA 91206
Turlock Irrigation TID has been a PowerSIMM licensed customer since 2016. TID uses PowerSIMM for District portfolio risk management and hedging activities. In 2018 Ascend performed a cost- (2016 - Current) benefit analysis using PowerSIMM for Turlock's entry into the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Ascend performed a multi-stage simulation from Day ahead -> hour ahead -> 15 EIM Study minute -> 5 minute market of Turlock's power resources. We compared with this a business-as-usual case to show the benefits of EIM participation. The study showed considerable economic benefits, which led to TID joining the EIM in 2020.
Contributor: Dorris (Engagement Director), Millar (lead analyst) Reference: Jim Farrar. Director Power Resources. [email protected] Silicon Valley Clean Ascend worked with SVCE to develop their 2020 Integrated Resource Plan, investigating Energy (SVCE) a number of potential resource portfolios and legislative scenarios, including optimizing Integrated Resource the portfolio resource mix of long-term contracted resources versus market purchases to Plan (IRP-LTPP maximize hourly clean energy supply while minimizing risk and cost to ratepayers. SVCE Proceeding) maintains a 100% clean energy portfolio on an annual basis and are exploring ways to (2020) deliver clean and renewable resources around the clock. Monica Padilla, Director of Resource Planning said, "I credit the team and Ascend for helping us model and synthesize the 24x7 carbon-free analysis along with the other important metrics." A review of our work for SVCE by the California Public Utility Commission rated our quantification and management of both cost and risk as 'best-in-class' among all Community Choice Aggregators.
Contributors: Millar (Lead), Katz (Modeling)
Client Reference: Monica Padilla, Director Resources Planning.
[email protected]. 408-721-5301x1009. 333 W El Camino Real #330, Sunnyvale, CA 94087
East Bay Community Ascend partnered with EBCE to provide the analytics backbone of the 2020 IRP filing Energy (EBCE) with the CPUC. Ascend worked with EBCE to develop conforming portfolios and Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
Integrated Resource evaluate the portfolios with respect to GHG, RPS, cost, and reliability metrics, all using Planning Ascend's PowerSIMM software. Ascend also worked with EBCE to develop internal (2020) procurement strategy using PowerSIMM's Automated Resource Selection (ARS) module, an optimization tool for building portfolios that meet constraints such as GHG, RPS, and market exposure. Ascend is developing portfolios that meet decreasing targets for GHG, including a 100% GHG free portfolio.
Contributors: Millar (PM and Lead), Nelson (Analyst), Katz (Modeling) Reference: Marie Fontenot, Senior Director Power Resources. Marie [email protected]
Ascend worked with NPPD to develop several potential pathways to achieve increasingly stringent CO2 reduction targets, including zero emissions by 2030. Ascend developed fundamental price forecasts for each scenario and found least-cost/least-risk expansion plans using PowerSIMM's Automated Resource Selection algorithm. Ascend Nebraska Public
found cost-effective pathways to achieve at least 80% reduction in greenhouse gas Power District
emissions and highlighted potential options for reducing the last 20% of emissions.
Decarbonization Ascend presented the results to NPPD management and stakeholders and held Pathways Study extensive discussions on the potential and challenges of power system decarbonization. (2020 - March 2021) Contributors: Millar(PM), Mauch (Analytics lead), Nelson (fundamentals), Gudladona (modeling)
Client Reference: James Fehr. [email protected]. 1414 15th Street PO Box 499 Columbus, NE 68602
Ascend supported LBWL's 2019 Integrated Resource Plan using our suite of analytic tools. This analysis involved modeling LBWL's current resource portfolio and leveraging Lansing Board of our capacity expansion tools to develop a 20-year resource plan based on least-cost and Water & Light (LBWL) lowest-risk that met the utility's capacity requirements and clean energy goals. Key resource decisions revolved around optimizing the retirement date of LBWL's coal unit, Integrated Resource
as well as optimally selecting resources to replace that unit and additional natural gas Planning and Avoided units set to retire in future years. Candidate resources included thermals, batteries, Cost Calculations
wind, solar, energy efficiency, and demand response resources. 2019-Present Contributors: Millar(ED), Katz (PM and Modeling) Client Reference: Paul Eory, Manager Resource Planning. [email protected]. 517- 702-6845. Finance & Planning Department P.O. Box 13007, Lansing, MI 48901 Ascend was retained by the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) to critical review the Integrated Resource Plans submitted by the three investor-owned utilities in Arizona, Arizona Public Service, Tucson Electric Power, and UNS Electric, as well as Arizona Corporation
analyze potential costs of the proposed Energy Rules which would target 80% reduction Commission (ACC)
in carbon emissions by 2050 and 100% reduction by 2070. Ascend worked with each IRP Critical Review utility to create portfolios that would meet the targets and estimated cost impacts and Energy Rules versus a "least-cost" pathway that included additional natural gas generation. The Analysis analysis found low to moderate impacts on costs and rates through at least 2035, and 2021 more significant cost impacts to mitigate the final 20 percent of emissions reductions, given what is known about costs of technologies such as green hydrogen and ultra-long duration storage. Ascend presented the results to a special Open Meeting with all five Commissioners as well as stakeholders. This analysis will support the ACC's final decision on whether to adopt the proposed energy rules.
Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
Contributors: Millar (lead), Mauch (analysis), Brode (analysis), Nelson (analysis), Boukarim (analysis)
Reference: Zach Branum [email protected] 602-542-0755
Ascend conducted a resource selection analysis to choose a portfolio of resources to replace the retiring coal-fired San Juan generating station. Ascend performed a thorough evaluation of procured vs. utility-owned renewable and battery storage assets under a range of cost assumptions, contract terms, market conditions and the opportunity of monetizing very low and very high real-time price fluctuations.
The Ascend-evaluated portfolio was designed to provide PNM system operators improved flexibility to integrate the increasing amount of renewable energy envisaged by the New Mexico Energy Transition Act (ETA). Like SB350 and SB100, the ETA seeks to transform the electricity portfolio supplying the state to 100% clean energy.
PNM and Ascend developed a portfolio that utilizes wind and solar projects to provide Public Service New
low-cost energy with physical firming of these renewable resources through a diverse Mexico and distributed battery and flexible thermal portfolio. Two and four-hour duration Portfolio Decision batteries were selected to provide a range of important services for PNM, including Analysis for San Juan maximizing the use of renewable resources, managing resource intermittency by Abandonment and providing frequency regulation services, grid-hardening benefits for the transmission Replacement and distribution system, and providing a physical hedge to protect the rate payer from Proceeding real-time price spikes associated with operations in the highly volatile Western Energy (2019 - January 2020) Imbalance Market (EIM).
Dr. Gary Dorris served as a witness in the SJGS Abandonment and Replacement proceeding, providing specific insight into the value of storage and flexible thermal resources in the CA EIM.
Contributors: Dorris (Expert witness), Millar (Analysis and PM), Nelson (analysis) Client References:
Tom Fallgren, VP PNM Generation. [email protected]. 505-241-4148. 2401 Aztec Rd, NE. Albuquerque, NM 87107.
Pat O'Connell (former Director, Integrated Resource Planning, now with WRA). Senior Policy Analyst Western Resource Advocates. 505-919-7741 Since 2014, Ascend has worked with NWE to develop their state mandated IRPs in Montana and South Dakota (SPP). In 2014, Ascend develop an innovative power supply IRP that resulted in a $1 billion acquisition of 11 hydro facilities representing 633 MW of capacity and multiple storage reservoirs for NWE. Ascend conducts detailed sub-hourly analyses to determine the best combination of renewable and non-renewable NorthWestern Energy
resources and the amount of contingency and regulation reserves required to balance 2014 - 2022 IRP, realistic changes in load and generation given historic weather variability across the ROs, and Avoided NWE service territory and supply geography. Ascend also calculated reserve margins Cost
and LOLP as a function of capacity additions.
The Montana public service commission retained Evergreen Economics to critically review NWE's application of Ascend's models. Evergreen concluded that, "In Evergreen's opinion, NWE's efforts are fully consistent with industry best Integrated Resource Planning Project Qualifications
practices." The analysis for this IRP explicitly captures the impact of load, hydro, renewables, and market prices on portfolio-level costs.
Ascend also supports RFPs for capacity resources in SD and MT, as well as provides analysis and expert testimony on Avoided Cost for PURPA filings in Montana.
Ascend is currently developing the 2022 IRP in Montana. Mr. Millar is leading the stakeholder engagement activities and overall modeling strategy.
Contributors: Dorris (ED), Mauch (analytics lead), Millar (stakeholder engagement), Brode (analysis)
Client Reference: Bleau LaFave. Director Long-term Resources.
1.2.Organization chart
Vernon
Client
Gary Dorris,
PhD Brandon
Executive Oversight
Mauch
Project Director
Anthony Brent
Zach Brode
Boukarim Nelson. PhD
Lead IRP Analyst Modeler Fundamentals Lead
Sid Mathew
Modeler
Ascend brings a wealth of resource planning experience, especially within the California market and policy context. The project will be led by Brandon Mauch, Director of Resource Planning. Dr. Gary Dorris provides project oversight and can help with any issue resolution. Anthony Boukarim will play the role of overall project coordinator with VPU, review deliverables, and provide expertise. Mr. Mauch is supported by a team with broad experience including Dr. Brent Nelson, fundamentals lead; and resource planning modelers Sid Mathew and Zach Brode. The team's planning experience is shown in the following table. Resumes are available upon request.
Name Role IRP Experience at a Glance
• Salt River Project EIM Study and Renewable Portfolio Valuation and Analysis (2019 - 2021)
• Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Clean Grid LA Plan Analysis 2020 - 2021
• Public Service New Mexico, San Juan Abandonment
Gary Dorris, PhD Executive
CEO Oversight Replacement Analysis (2019 - 2020)
• NorthWestern Energy IRP (2020, 2019, 2014)
• Burbank Water and Power IRP (2018 - 2019)
• Glendale Water and Power Clean Energy RFP and IRP (2018 - 2019)
• Hawaii Electric Power Service Improvement Plan (2015 - 2016) • Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Clean Grid LA Plan Analysis 2020 - 2021
• Glendale Water and Power 100% Clean Energy by 2030
Feasibility Analysis
Brandon Mauch, Project
• Nebraska Public Power District Decarbonization Plan. (2020 - PhD
Senior Manager Modeling 2021)
Manager • Indianapolis Power and Light /RP (2019)
: Northwestern Energy Mantana and South Dakota 1RPS 2019 NorthWestern Energy Montana IRP 2020 • NorthWestern Energy PURPA avoided costs analysis (2018 - 2021)
Nebraska Public Power District Decarbonization Plan. (2020 - Brent Nelson, 2021)
PhD Fundamentals • East Bay Clean Energy IRP (2020)
Director, Market Lead CPS Energy - Spruce Economic Evaluation (2020) Intelligence • Public Service New Mexico, San Juan Abandonment Replacement Analysis 2019 - 2020)
• Grant Co PUD IRP (2022)
: San Jose Clean Energy Integrated Resource Plan (2021 - 2022) Anthony Clean Power Alliance 2020, 2021, and 2022 Clean Energy RFOS Boukarim Lead Analyst • Salt River Project Renewable Portfolio Valuation and Analysis Senior Consultant (2020 - 2021)
• Nebraska Public Power District Decarbonization Plan. (2020- 2021)
• NorthWestern Energy IRP (2022)
• Salt River Project Renewable Portfolio Valuation and Analysis (2020 - 2021)
• Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Clean Grid LA Plan Zach Brode Analysis 2020 - 2021
Senior Energy Modeler • Nebraska Public Power District Decarbonization Plan. (2020 - Analyst 2021)
• Indianapolis Power and Light IRP (2019)
• NorthWestern Energy Montana and South Dakota IRPs 2019 • NorthWestern Energy Montana IRP 2020
• NorthWestern Energy PURPA avoided costs analysis (2018 - 2021)
Name Role IRP Experience at a Glance
Sid Mathew
Modeler Imperial Irrigation District Integrated Resource Plan 2022 Energy Analyst
2. Proposed Method to Accomplish the Work
The Ascend team proposes using our resource planning expertise and analytic software tools to create VPU's IRP.
Ascend proposes to execute the following tasks to complete the scope of work:
# Task Name Approach
1 Project Initiation • Sign contract
• Kickoff meeting via MS Teams
• Discussion of current situation and document desired outcomes of IRP effort Create work plan and modeling plan
: Collect intal data needed for modeling, including physical and financial parameters on loads and current resources.
• Schedule regular project management meetings
2 Review Demand Ascend will work with VPU to develop a load forecast. We recommend using the CEC's mid Forecast and EE demand mid-AAEE forecast or High demand, mid-AAEE forecast. High demand may be more Programs in line with actual VPU load, a warming climate and higher peaks. Next we review increased electrification load including expected new industrial load, electric vehicles (including electric trucking), and building electrification (heat pumps, induction stoves, etc.) and develop an appropriate forecast for VPU's service territory. We will also incorporate the potential of smart charging and V2G to make load more flexible during periods of grid "naive" when most EV drivers plug in and charge as soon as they get home and overnight, to a more "optimized" profile which leverages workplace charging during the day and avoidance of peak hours (5 - 10 PM). The Ascend team will leverage existing research on energy efficiency and demand response, including TOU pricing, on load shapes. We will review your existing program costs and evaluated savings and make recommendations on potential EE programs for inclusion in the capacity expansion plans of the IRP.
Ascend can provide technical expertise in evaluating DER scenarios and strategies. We have experience evaluating DER scenarios for many utility clients with diverse portfolios and potential for DER implementation. Ascend is well positioned to assist VPU with the technical and economic potential of DERs. We will provide analysis on DER cost-effectiveness and the portfolio impacts attributed to DERs such as RPS position, carbon emissions, and RA requirements.
3 Review City's Using the CEC IRP guidelines as a framework, Ascend will work with Vernon to identify Existing and environmental man, These nude enore is and discus he ful lifecte Proposed Energy
Resources and Renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, etc.) Programs • Storage
Thermal generation with renewable fuel capability
• Small modular nuclear
Demand side options
Virtual power plant
• Energy efficiency
• Demand response
• Electric vehicle (V2G)
• Hydrogen production and consumption
These options will be characterized as "candidate resources" for use in the capacity expansion modeling. We may also choose to create specific resource scenarios to evaluate options that are not picked economically.
Ascend maintains an up-to-date database of technology costs and their forecasts based on reputable forecasts and data from the half dozen RFOs run by Ascend each year. Ascend also maintains forecasts of the ELCC of renewables, storage, and hybrid resources as a function of their expected penetration in the California market. We can model specific options already under consideration or generic options.
Through the modeling, we capture:
• Cost to serve load
• Portfolio risks (risk premium)
Resource adequacy
• GHG emissions
Renwable portfolio position
The end result is several portfolio options to meet future GHG, RPS, and resource adequacy requirements. We will characterize the costs and the average impact on rates. 4 Review the Ascend will review the Distributed Generation Impact Study as it pertains to an energy City's supply plan and the required tables for submission to the CEC. This is primarily used as a Interconnections way to understand the total technically feasible adoption of DERs on VPU's system without and Distribution substantial upgrades. If upgrades are needed, then we would include those costs in the Facilities costs of the next tranche of DERs.
5 Assess The RPS requirement is input as a constraint in our capacity expansion algorithm embedded Renewable in the PowerSIMM model. The model picks the portfolio of resources that meets the RPS Energy and RPS requirements at least cost. We typically put limits on the amounts of specific resources the Compliance model can select. For example we may put a limit on "Wyoming wind" because of the limited amount of transmission available to bring it to the CAISO market. We can also create specific scenarios as well such as "wind-heavy" or "solar-heavy." The modeling will reveal the least-cost least-risk pathway to meeting future RPS complianc requirements. 6 Develop Market Ascend maintains a unique fundamental modeling framework to capture the changing price Scenarios dynamics in the southern California power market called Ascend Market Intelligence. We incorporate expected changes in regional load and resource stack to generate hourly and sub-hourly power prices throughout the forecast horizon. Ascend will present our core SP- 15 power price forecast that we intend to use in the IRP. We also develop nodal forecasts for candidate resources that includes expected basis changes over time. The slide below shows an example from one of our Market Intelligence reports.
Figure 2: Market Intelligence Slide showing Ascend's expectation for future CAISO Supply Stack CAISO is gaining large quantities of intermittent resources while losing baseload and flexible capacity
6500
• Capacity equal to "20% of peak load may be retiring over the next 10 years • ~6 GW of announced retrements (lower right) 1:00
• ~25 GW of potential economic and legistative retirements • Low-cost renewables combined with stakeholder pressure and corporate demand inc will result in even higher renewable penetration than required by policy • Storage deployments are outpaced by the continued addition of Intermittent resources and thermal renirements
Copyright Ascend Analytics. Do not duplete or die tribute without writter perminion Ascend's Market Intelligence also closely follows and analyzes carbon prices in California.
Our market projection for power prices in CAISO include impacts from current carbon prices along with our projections for future carbon prices. Ascend's price forecasts for CAISO nodes are driven in part by our carbon price projections and our supply forecasts due to GHG reduction targets in California and the WECC.
Ascend will present our core SP-15 fundamental forecast to VPU. This plus the stochastic nature of our simulation approach should cover the major potential risks to VPU's portfolio.
Custom fundamental forecasts cost extra, as outlined in our pricing. We recommend simply using our core forecast unless there is a specific uncertainty or change desired in our supply stack assumptions for CAISO.
7 Developing or Ascend will use its planning model PowerSIMM for this project. See appendix A for more Recommending about PowerSIMM.
Analytical Tools
Ascend will execute the modeling plan, including capacity expansion runs with each candidate resource to fill VPU's energy, capacity, RPS, and GHG planning targets. Ascend recommends using a capacity expansion algorithm endogenous to the PowerSIMM model, which we call automated resource selection or ARS. ARS chooses the least-cost/least-risk expansion plan across hundreds of simulated future states and can optimize expansion plans with constraints such as SB100 requirements, zero carbon by 2030, and more all while maintaining adequate reserve margin. Results will be shown in annual and 25-year NPV of revenue requirements (inclusive of capital, O&M, fuel costs, PPA cost, etc.). The results will provide insight into the least-cost least-risk resource procurement strategy to meet VPU objectives, including sustainability, reliability, risk management, compliance, equity, and keeping rates affordable.
PowerSIMM is unique in its ability to simulate power system operations with weather as a fundamental driver. First PowerSIMM simulates temperature using 30 years of data as a training set. PowerSIMM builds models time-series models to simulate weather's impact on loads, renewable generation, outages, and power prices.
After completing the capacity expansion models, Ascend runs the expansion outputs in production cost models to get detailed results for portfolio costs, carbon emissions, RPS positions, and other relevant outputs. Note that VPU may opt not to use capacity expansion algorithms, but instead "hand design" scenarios, but typically we use ARS as as starting point and may adjust the resulting portfolios as decided by the modeling team.
Retail Rate Impact Analysis
Ascend will leverage $0.07 Average Wholesale Rates Versus CFC Metric:
Scenarios A & B
PowerSIMM results to assess $0.07
the impact of portfolio
$0.06
additions on retail rates. We
$0.06
will work with VPU's rate
B2: Use Coal seasonally
department to develop rough $0.05
expectations for revenue $0.05
requirements for transmission $0.04
and distribution, which
$0.04
PowerSimm outputs the
generation cost revenue $0.03
requirement. If we identify a $0.03
major transmission need in the $0.02
generation planning that is 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 feasible to plan on, we would A1 -816 - - CFC Metric Trajectory include the cost of that
transmission upgrade in the Figure 3: An example of a rate impact analysis for a different planning project
revenue requirements. Note
that Ascend does not perform
rate class impacts (changes to specific residential, commercial, industrial, ag, etc. rates), but rather can assess overall average bundled rate impacts. 8 Write IRP Report Following IRP guidelines, write comprehensive IRP report, including standardized tables.
Coordinate with Vernon staff to draft sections regarding VPU policies and programs, such as disadvantaged communities programs, etc. See below for more details.
Customer Ascend will prepare materials and present at engagement meetings. Ascend has budgeted Engagement for 6 meetings.
Meetings
IRP Report
The following table is a suggested division of responsibilities for the IRP report content. Some content such as disadvantaged communities or local distribution system impacts are better drafted by VPU staff with the specific expertise in those topics. This table can be reviewed together to update as necessary.
Table 1: Division of Responsibilities for IRP Report Content Chapter Lead - Notes | Support - Notes
A. Planning Horizon Ascend - We recommend ending at
2045 to show "100% retail sales" from
clean energy generation.
B. Scenarios and Ascend - Ascend will develop scenarios VPU - Work with Ascend team to Sensitivity Analysis and sensitivities with VPU to answer key design modeling approach and make resource questions facing the adjustments as warranted. organization.
C. Standardized Tables Ascend - Draft tables from modeling VPU - Review tables results
D. Supporting Ascend - We will include the latest VPU - Any DSM studies, engineering Information version of our California Market Report, studies or other information that describing our fundamental price may be useful to CEC.
forecast.
E. Demand forecast Ascend - Stack up load forecasts, VPU - Provide expectations of new including baseload (from CEC), load and load shape or at least the electrification load, and new C&l load. average load and peak load. Work with Ascend to develop EV load
forecast.
Resource Procurement Ascend - This is primarily supported by VPU - Provide existing RPS contracts Plan the required tables, with explanation in and/or owned RPS resources and narrative form. volumes.
G. Energy Efficiency and Ascend - Ascend will work with VPU to VPU - VPU shall include information Demand Response identify new energy efficiency and DR on their existing EE and DR Resources resource program options. Any options Resources. that are selected in the resource
modeling process will be included.
Ascend shall include EE and DR impacts
in the standardized tables.
H. Energy Storage Ascend - Ascend will write the section on energy storage resource options,
including their value and use in ensuring
system reliability. We shall include info
on diurnal storage (Li-lon batteries) and
potential long-duration storage options
(hydrogen, iron-air, gravity, etc.)
1. Transportation Ascend - Ascend will incorporation VPU - Provide load data on EVs in Electrification electric vehicles as a load in PowerSIMM | service territory. Provide data on and can change the charging profiles charging infrastructure, other over time to move from a naive charging transportation electrification, and profile to one more optimized with other information.
system energy needs. Ascend will also
help VPU forecast the amount of electric
vehicle load in the service territory. We
1. System and Local VPU - VPU will take the lead on the Reliability local reliability area section.
K. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
L. Retail Rates VPU - If VPU's wishes to do a more
detailed class level rate impact
analysis, this would have to happen
assessment. from within VPU's rate team.
M. Transmission and VPU - VPU would include any
Distribution Systems information on expected transmission or distribution upgrades over the planning
horizon.
N. Localized Air VPU - VPU would take the lead on Ascend - We will calculate the air Pollutants and describing its disadvantaged community pollutants from VPU power plants Disadvantaged strategy. This typically include from our dispatch studies and note Communities investments in clean energy how much is emitted in disadvantaged communities.
Screening Tool.
3. High Level Schedule
The following table shows a high level proposed schedule. Upon contract execution, we shall create a detailed project blan to further flesh this out.
Task Sub-task Start End
Kick off 11/14 11/14
1. Project Initiation Collect data for modeling 11/14 1/13/2023 Data entry, simulation validation 11/14 1/31/2023
2. Review Demand Forecast 11/21
and DSM program 12/31
3. Review City's Existing
and Proposed Energy 11/21 12/31
Resources and Programs
4. Review the City's
Interconnections and 1/13 3/31
Distribution Facilities
5. Assess Renewable Energy
and RPS Compliance 1/13 2/24
Core Ascend forecast for SP 15 Available immediately
6. Develop Market
Scenarios
Optional custom forecasts December Late January
7. Developing or
Recommending Resource planning analysis modeling January 2023 August 2023 Analvtical Tools
8. Write IRP Report
including CEC submission Q3 2023 Q1 2024
and interactions.
9. Customer Engagement January or February End of year 2023 Meetings 2023
4. Cost Estimate
The following table shows the summarized estimated labor costs and fees for this project. Detailed calculations are submitted via a separate spreadsheet.
Task Hours Cost Note
1. Project Initiation 310 $79,250
2. Review Demand Forecast and
DSM program 60 $16,500
3. Review City's Existing and
Proposed Energy Resources and 90 $23,500
Programs
4. Review the City's
Interconnections and Distribution 30 $7,750
Facilities
5. Assess Renewable Energy and
RPS Compliance 110 $28,000
6. Develop Market Scenarios - Included in Market
Ascend Core Market Intelligence N/A N/A
Forcast Intelligence Fee
7. Capacity Expansion and 160 $40,500
Production Cost Analyses
8. Write IRP Report, including 175 $47,750
CEC submission and interactions.
Total Labor Before Customer
Engagement Meetings 935 $293,250
9. Customer Engagement
Meetings (6) 168 $45,600
Total Labor 1103 $288,850
Other Fees
Ascend Core Market Intelligence Billed upon contract
Forcast for SP-15 $15,000
execution
Billed after
PowerSIMM SaaS License fee $35,000 successful delivery
of project.
Total Fees $50,000
Grand Total $338,850
Optional
Custom SP 15 Market Forecast $25,000 Price per forecast Travel $5,000
Appendix A: About PowerSIMM and Market Intelligence
Ascend prides itself in being a market leader in analytical rigor and forward thinking in a rapidly changing energy landscape. We leverage the power of modern computing to solve power system optimization problems using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, stochastic optimization, and artificial intelligence. The task of planning for systems where renewables are increasing their share of system energy is a paradigm in which our PowerSIMM software excels and provides critical insight needed to make decisions that yield value for VPU customers and avoid stranded asset risks.
PowerSIMM is a commercial software solution for planning and portfolio management used by utilities like NorthWestern Energy, Duke, AEP, LADWP, City of Austin, Ameren, New York Power Authority, Indianapolis Power and Light, and many others.
The following table summarizes our modeling philosophy and how it relates to modern resources planning for a low carbon power system.
The Approach Why we do it
Weather is a fundamental driver of uncertainty, especially with renewables where Simulate renewable
"weather is the new fuel." Our unique simulation approach generates "meaningful generation, loads, and market uncertainty" which enables insight into resource value in real-world conditions, not prices as a function of weather
idealized average conditions that in reality do not exist.
Modern flexible resources like batteries provide opportunities to generate additional revenue in the 15- and 5-minute real-time market and reduce curtailment of renewables. Increased renewable generation has the effect of increasing spot market price volatility due to the intermittent nature of its output. This is especially true in the real-time market given the increase in forecast error caused by renewables.
Volatility is manifest as short duration real-time price spikes of over $100/MWh.
Sub-hourly dispatch down to 5
When models only dispatch against day-ahead hourly level prices, they miss a major value stream for flexible resources in the sub-hourly dimension. Failing to dispatch down to the sub-hourly level will unfairly bias the results against the flexibie resources demanded by the new market dynamic of high renewables. Further this follows the NARUC guidance! that "planning frameworks and modeling tools...should model the full spectrum of services that energy storage and flexible resources are capable of providing, including sub-hourly services."
Not all least-cost portfolios in traditional modeling are truly least cost in real life. That is because legacy models rely on the average or typical week approach due to computing limitations. However, the grid with high renewables is unlikely to ever have a typical week. By simulating and probabilistically enveloping future states, Identify risk using a risk-
including unlikely but high-impact tail events (i.e. Black Swans), we can quantify the premium calculation
risk profile of different portfolios and use that information in decision analysis. We assess a portfolio's risk exposure to volatility in power prices, fuel cost, carbon prices, etc. Portfolios that balance these risks while also keeping portfolio cost low become the most "all-weather" plan going forward into an increasingly uncertain world.
Back when all power resources were dispatchable, there was little need to simulate loss of load probability. A standard reserve margin calculation was enough. Now and Understand reliability and
into the foreseeable future we must maintain reliability with resources of uncertain resilience implications of
output and batteries with state of charge constraints, alongside traditional resources renewables and storage using
with forced outage rates. Reliability in a low carbon/high renewable portfolio should Loss of Load Probability and
be viewed through the lens of loss of load probability analysis. Through simulation of Effective Load Carrying
weather, load, renewables, and forced outages, Ascend can determine the reliability Capability (ELCC) analyses impacts of different portfolios and the true capacity contribution of renewables and batteries through the PowerSIMM framework.
1 https://pubs.naruc.org/pub/2BC7B6ED-C11C-31C9-21FC-EAF8B38A6EBF Ascend Market Intelligence
Energy markets are rapidly changing. Renewables and storage deployment across the US are disrupting traditional approaches to fundamental price forecasting, driving the need for new approaches and fresh insights. Ascend Market Intelligence provides expert analysis and 20+ year fundamental price forecasts to support modern resource planning and procurement decision making in a dynamic and uncertain environment. Ascend maintains a unique fundamental modeling framework to support resource planning and valuation activities, purposefully designed to capture the dynamics of structural change in the electricity sector, including price depression, curtailment and negative price formation, Figure 1 shows the general schematic of Ascend's approach.
Figure 4 - AsCEND's FUNDAMENTAL MODELING FRAMEWORK
Policy and Buildout Price Formation Outputs
Macro Assumptions
Long-run
on/off peak Volatility
Load
forwards
Cimate A Load
RPS Policy Growth
Ramps Power Flows
Market AT Poke
Renewable Price Shapes
forwards Spikes
Generation
+7
Technology Curtalment Marginal Unit
Electrification
Can be adjusted based Ancillary
Prices
on scenario assumptions Weather
Fundamental
Anchors Alignment tong-ron Batriers to Stakeholder Meaninglut equilibrium Entry Densand
By focusing on these key policy, economic, and physical constraints that govern resource buildout and dispatch, Ascend's forecasts focus on the most important drivers of uncertainty and risk in long-term planning and valuation. Ascend's forecasting is anchored to several fundamental drivers, principally near-term market expectations paired with long-term expectations of load growth and supply changes driven by policy and economics. All forecasts align to market forwards in the near-term, which reflect the consensus market expectation of all macro level assumptions, including greenhouse gas (GHG) and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policy, economic growth, electrification, and technology costs. For pricing after the end of the liquid forward curves, forecasts are firmly anchored to "long-run equilibrium" conditions, in which markets prices for energy, ancillaries, and capacity sum up to allow new resources to earn no more than normal returns.
Ascend also forecasts price conditions at the nodal level for valuation of existing and candidate resources. Geographic barriers, such as dense populations, bodies of water, mountains, interconnect boundaries, and variation in renewable resource potential, all lead to geographic variation in returns that can persist in the long-run with limited mitigation potential. Nodal prices are simulated as a basis from the hub, with a modeled evolution in basis and volatility driven by expectations of local fundamental conditions.
PowerSIMM Capabilities for Resource Planning
Ascend will use its proprietary software, PowerSIMM, to perform production cost modeling and capacity expansion modeling for VPU's resource portfolio. PowerSIMM offers a suite of tools, including stochastic simulations, portfolio modeling with market interactions, automated resource selection for optimal capacity expansion, and reliability analysis.
Stochastic Simulations and Risk
The ability to perform hundreds of stochastic
simulations with uncertainty and volatility Risk premium allows comparing portfolios with different risk profiles, parameters results in a distribution considering the distribution of costs rather than just the average Si
of portfolio costs across a range of Billions
possible futures. The risk premium $20
concept for decision analysis was
$15
shown above and is included in the NPV
chart to the right. The risk premium NPV of Total Portfolio Cost (S) $10 is
the actuarial value of a resource's $5
exposure to market price volatility,
which is included as an adder to 1A 2 the
Base 18 1C 10 3 4
portfolio NPV costs. The risk $(5)
premium thus allows portfolio • Capital Cost • Fixed Costs * Startup Cost # Fuel Cost • VOM Costs # Congestion Cast • CO2 Cost • Battery Costs comparison that incorporates the risk
• Renewable PPA Costs I Import Cost Expart Revenue • Risk Premiern and uncertainty of costs rather than
• Total
just the mean.
Model Development
In order to model VPU's portfolio, Ascend will collect information about load, generation assets, and market constraints.
For load, Ascend use historical data to determine weather correlations for its simulations. Ascend also has a wealth of experience working with utilities throughout the US on altering forecasted load shapes to reflect growth in electric vehicles, behind-the-meter solar, and energy efficiency measures.
For generation assets, Ascend will work
with VPU to collect the physical and Example sub-hourly dispatch enables deep insight into the behavior financial parameters of all VPU generation and value of flexible resources in the portfolio resources, including all owned
CTs dispatch and find value in March 2024
assets and all contractual / price spikes. No value in hourly models.
resources. Ideally, renewables should
be modeled using actual historic ₴ ка Batteries actively dispatch to capture positive and
output data or at least through negative price movements 300 finding value in more
simulated NREL data. For market 'cycles/day. RT
interactions, Ascend will work with Price VPU
to define agreed-upon constraints 100 and
implement them in the model. • li After
model configuration, Ascend runs a base
case with a series of validation • 1802м1 100 2м1 602 AV 120009 30004 600991 steps
to assure the simulation engine is matching observed weather patterns, renewable output, load response to weather, and individual unit capacity factors. Dispatching against sub-hourly prices provides additional insight into the value of flexible resources in responding to short duration, high-value price spikes as shown in the example above.
Capacity Expansion Planning
Ascend uses PowerSIMM's Automated Resource Selection (ARS) to provide a least-cost least-risk portfolio expansion plan for serving load over the planning horizon, including both supply-side and demand-side resources. Within the ARS framework, Ascend specifies the physical and financial aspects of all candidate resources for meeting load. We also create appropriate constraints such as meeting the carbon targets specified in each of the cases, maintaining reliability, meeting an RPS goal, and maintaining energy load balance.
Ascend's ARS optimizes resource additions and can also indicate economic retirement dates for existing resources.
Because the model optimizes over all simulated future states, the resulting portfolio represents the best resource mix across both cost and risk. Ascend can also perform several ARS runs with varying inputs for macro level uncertainties, according to each of the different cases to be considered. For example, runs can be performed with and without carbon costs or according to different RPS or carbon targets. The final results include one or several portfolio expansion plans to choose from as "preferred portfolios".
Reliability and Capacity Analysis
Ascend's reliability analysis is trusted by clients LOLH reliability analysis combines the effects of variability in load, across the US. Our Resource Adequacy model is renewable generation, and thermal generation forced outages a probabilistic tool to analyze the risk of VPU 60
not having adequate resources to meet load. A
key feature of the PowerSIMM Resource
Adequacy module is the use of weather, load
and renewable energy simulations that
maintain the relationships between these
variables to properly account for reliability risk Average Makret Exposure Hours(h) from intermittent resources. Ascend will
evaluate this risk with hourly simulations using
the standard loss of load metrics; Loss of Load 10
Probability, Loss of Load Expectation, and
Expected Unserved Energy. Additionally,
2020 2025 2030 2035
Ascend can perform effective load carrying
• Baseline - 1b = - la+ 150MW
capacity (ELCC) analysis to estimate the
capacity contribution of renewables and storage for planning purposes.
Generator Inputs
Ascend will rely on our extensive database of cost and performance data. Ascend has deep experience with modeling a variety of power system assets for utilities and developers, including traditional assets such as thermal generation and hydro as well as renewables and storage. Ascend's experience working with utilities on high renewables portfolios also has given us experience with assumptions around a variety of future technologies for low- and zero-carbon pathways, including long-duration storage (compressed air, flow batteries, etc.) and power-to-X renewable fuel options (hydrogen, methane, ammonia). For example, we have advised LADWP on repowering the Intermountain Power Project with electrolyzed hydrogen from renewables as part of their 100% clean plan.? Ascend has also managed and performed economic valuation for numerous requests-for-offers, including receiving over 100 offers for a renewables and storage RFO in Southern California and evaluating offers for capacity (batteries, frames, aeros, RICE, combined cycle, etc.) for RFPs in South Dakota and Montana. This depth of experience gives Ascend well-informed knowledge of representative capital and operating costs of all these resource types. Ascend also calibrates its own assumptions against publicly available information, such as that produced by the national laboratories, presented in IRPs, and otherwise made available.
2https://amer.mhps.com/intermountain-power-agency-orders-mhps-jac-gas-turbine-technology-for-renewable-hydrogen-energy- hub.html
Appendix B: Selected Resumes
GARY DORRIS, PhD
CEO & PRESIDENT
CONTACT EDUCATION
email: [email protected] Cornell University
phone: (303) 415-0311 Ph.D., Applied Economics and Finance 1996 B.S., Mechanical Engineering 1988
1877 Broadway, Suite 706
B.A., Economics
Boulder, Colorado 80302 Magna cum Laude
SUMMARY
• Developed an industry-leading consulting and software company that supports resource planning, portfolio management, and risk. Has grown Ascend to a 50-person company with a reputation as an industry leader for renewable integration, resource planning, and portfolio management analytics. Previously, led e- Acumen to be an industry star with 60 people before sale of company to ABB. • Chief model architect and engagement director to implement solutions for resource planning and portfolio management analytics at AES, ACES Power Marketing, American Electric Power, BC Hydro, Dayton Power and Light, Duke, Hawaii Electric Companies, Indianapolis Power and Light, Entergy Solutions, Essent, Exelon, InterGen, LADWP, PG&E, Puget Sound Energy, Pennsylvania Power & Light, Riverside Public Utilities, The Energy Authority, Tri-State G&T, NRG, Tennessee Valley Authority, and Turlock Irrigation District. • Developed and deployed resource planning software solutions and supported resource plans that systematically integrated uncertainty into capacity expansion planning and resource selection.
• Developed and deployed solutions to capture the financial and physical dynamics of energy markets and operations including: 1) derivative instrument valuation, 2) asset valuation, 3) risk management and portfolio optimization, 3) forward and spot prices, 4) transmission/transportation, 5) load, 6) gas storage, and 7) credit risk. • Performed numerous independent market assessments for valuation of electric generating assets:
• Assessments for financing of over $5 billion in generating and gas storage assets. • Valuations performed for leading energy developers, banks, and S&P and Moody's. • Presented to boards of directors and provided expert testimony.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Ascend Analytics - Boulder, CO March 2002 - Present
President & Founder
Founded and organically grew Ascend to be a leading analytics software and consulting provider for the energy industry with 50+ employees providing innovative solutions focused on decision analysis for portfolio management, resource planning, and risk analytics. Provided the analytic vision to bridge the physical models for production costing with the financial models of risk management of Wall Street. The resulting software solutions provide the energy industry with the actionable intelligence to manage energy supply portfolios with an understanding of physical and financial opportunities and risk from the next hour, to intermediate term portfolio management and hedging, to long-term resource planning and asset valuation.
e-Acumen (Acquired from Stratus) - Boulder, CO 2000-2001 CEO and Chief Model Architect
Grew e-Acumen from an immature start-up with an undefined market position and very limited products to an analytics power house with 25 active customers and a spate of industry leading products and revenues of $10 million. • Grew staff from a half a dozen to over 50 people.
• Provided product visions, developed business processes and functional team roles to realize functional corporate • Raised over $5 million in venture funding from GE, and several Silicon Valley backers. The company was sold to Global Energy Decisions (Ventyx) and Risk Capital Management.
Stratus Consulting (Hagler Bailly spinoff) - Boulder, CO (1998-1999) Director of Energy Practice
Lead development of risk and portfolio management infrastructure for launching of electric trading floors.
Performed asset valuation for over $5 billion of generation asset transactions.
Hagler Bailly - Boulder, CO 1997-1998
Manager and Senior Associate
Launched electricity trading floors. Leader of a team building processes and solutions for portfolio risk management and strategy.
Cornell University - Ithaca, NY 1996
Faculty
Citizens Power & Light - Boston, MA 1990-1991
Power Marketing Manager
UNITIL Power Corp - Exeter, NH 1988-1990
Power Supply Supervisor
Power supply portfolio manager. Evaluated and negotiated power purchase agreements. Performed short-term power supply transactions.
Electric Power Research Inst. - Barker, NY 1987
Project Engineer: CO-OP
BRANDON MAUCH, PhD
MANAGER OF RESOURCE PLANNING ANALYTICS
CONTACT EDUCATION
email: [email protected] Carnegie Mellon University phone: (720) 307-8189 Ph.D., Engineering and Public Policy 2012 University of Wisconsin
1877 Broadway, Suite 706 M.S., Mechanical Engineering 1998 Boulder, Colorado 80302 University of Kansas
B.S., Mechanical Engineering 1996
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Ascend Analytics 2018 - Present
Manager of Resource Planning Analytics
• Manage team of energy analyst who bring deep expertise in energy modeling to clients • Provide project management of activities for multiple resource planning clients • Oversee energy storage analysis for Los Angeles Department of Water & Power to optimize energy storage planning based on loss of load expectation
• Provide oversight in the development of Ascend's tools and methods for capacity expansion modeling, avoided energy cost calculations and loss of load probability
• Lead projects to evaluate paths to 100% carbon free portfolios for multiple clients • Acted as an expert witness on PURPA avoided cost calculations in five dockets before the Montana Public Service Commission
CLEAResult Consulting
Senior Program Manager 2014-2018
• Leveraged technical experience and industry knowledge to provide demand side management program design and operations support
• Directed a team of energy specialist in implementing utility energy efficiency programs for commercial customers • Provided analytical oversite used for tracking performance and driving decision making lowa Utilities Board
Utility Regulation Engineer 2012 - 2014
• Produced statistical and economic analysis for decision makers in various regulatory proceedings (rate cases, resource planning, outage reports, requests for information) • Represented lowa interests in regional energy policy issues through MISO including transmission planning, reliability assessments and electric markets
• Reviewed utility resource plans and financial analysis Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center
Research Assistant 2008 - 2012
• Research focused on the integration of large-scale wind energy in electric grids • Created statistical models to analyze wind and electric load data • Presented results at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals • Taught an undergraduate course on engineering and public policy analysis
ANTHONY BOUKARIM
SENIOR CONSULTANT
CONTACT EDUCATION
email: [email protected] Stanford University phone: 720-642-9459 MS, Energy Resources Engineering 2020 1877 Broadway, Suite 706 American University of Beirut
BS, Mechanical Engineering 2015
Boulder, CO 80301
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Ascend Analytics (Boulder, CO) 2020 - Present
Senior Energy Analyst
• Evaluate renewables and storage RFO for utilities and CCAs in California and the broader west. California experience includes IRP and procurement projects for Peninsula Clean Energy, San Jose Clean Energy, and Clean Power Alliance.
• Develop integrated resource plans for utilities, evaluate renewable assets, conduct risk management studies, and produce energy forecasts
• Provide technical and subject matter expertise to clients, perform quality assurance activities, leverage energy analysis/ forecasting software, and manage internal teams to ensure timely delivery of projects Arthur D. Little/ McKinsey & Co (Dubai, UAE) 2015 - 2018 Management Consultant - Energy & Utilities practice
•
• Detailed national-wide initiatives such as reforming the energy prices, fostering net metering through incentives, unbundling of the electricity market, and development of a national renewable energy program • Developed an investment strategy for a leading electric utility and designed its venture capital arm to diversify the revenue streams - including an assessment framework for different investment types • Designed and executed a 'private sector development lab' that involved 24 government entities and over 700 CEOs from the private sector - including workshop designs, facilitation, and stakeholder engagement • Designed the strategy and organization structure of an EPC spin-off for one of the largest utilities in the world - including a business case on lending the fiber optics network • Developed a turn-around strategy for a Lebanese SME by conducting a market assessment, reshaping the company's vision, and creating a new marketing strategy Arthur D. Little (Dubai, UAE) 2014 - 2015
Busines Analyst - Oil & Gas
• Conducted a technical and financial due diligence for a private equity to acquire an Oil & Gas complex. The project included a market analysis for different petrochemicals and feedstock as well as an assessment of the technology used by a hybrid petrochemical plant in the GCC. The study concluded with manpower assessment and extensive negotiations with the clients
BRENT NELSON, PhD
DIRECTOR MARKET INTELLIGENCE
CONTACT EDUCATION
email: [email protected] Georgia Institute of Technology Ph.D., Mechanical Engineering 2007
phone: 720-388-1380
MS, Mechanical Engineering 2004
1877 Broadway, Suite 706
Boulder, Colorado 80302 University of California - Berkeley BS, Mechanical Engineering 2002
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Ascend Analytics, Boulder, CO 2019 - Present
Director Market Intelligence
• Lead's Ascend's fundamental market intelligence and forecasting group. • Led project to perform economic and reliability analysis for replacement of a coal generation asset with renewable and storage replacement portfolios in ERCOT
• Led the development of a renewable/storage integrated resource plan for East Bay Community Energy • Led the valuation of renewable and storage projects for Peninsula Clean Energy, San Jose Clean Energy, and Clean Power Alliance
• Led the preparation of interrogatory responses and analysis for replacement of the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) San Juan Generating Station with renewables, storage, and thermal generation. • Led the economic assessment of virtual power plant assets for Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ
Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering 2008 - 2019 • Led a research program focused on supply-side and demand-side energy systems analysis • Taught courses on energy analysis, energy economics, and energy technologies • Performed technoeconomic analysis for campus energy efficiency and renewable energy programs and strategy • Performed additional research activities in bioengineering and engineering education National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
Collaborative Appointment 2017 - 2019
• Performed research on demand flexibility models and future electrification scenarios, coauthoring 3 technical reports.
• Developed a framework and report on energy efficiency policy strategy in developing countries US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Washington, DC Program Manager and Energy Advisor 2014 - 2016
• Provided strategic guidance on research and development strategy for the Building Technologies Office • Performed technoeconomic analysis and market assessment of energy efficiency, storage, & demand-side management technologies
• Program manager for international collaborative research programs with India and China (>$50m), including managing project strategy and negotiations for the second phase of the US-China collaboration. • Provided strategic guidance to the Caribbean international body (CARICOM) in Guyana on energy efficiency policy Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
Design and Innovation Methodologies Postdoctoral Scholar 2007 - 2008 • Developed new, extensively adopted metrics for design methodology evaluation
ZACH BRODE
SENIOR ENERGY ANALYST
CONTACT EDUCATION
email: [email protected] University of British Columbia phone: 720-388-1373 MA, Economics 2018
1877 Broadway, Suite 706 Wheaton College (Norton, MA)
BA, Economics and Mathematics 2017
Boulder, CO 80301
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Ascend Analytics (Boulder, CO) 2018 - Present
Senior Energy Analyst
• Lead efforts to incorporate new features into Ascend software • Oversee testing and validation of models for multiple clients • Working with utility clients to model energy systems in support of capacity planning and resource assessment and valuation
• Developed long-term fundamental forecasts for prices in multiple ISO regions for battery valuations and resource planning
• Provided analysis and modeling support to IPL for their 2019 IRP and 2020 RFP Worked on avoided cost and IRP modeling as well as evaluation of new resource acquisitions for NorthWestern
Evaluated the economics of owned vs PPA batteries for Anaheim Worked with LADWP on planning for Clean Grid LA and meeting CA state requirements on carbon reduction