Attachment A - 2026 Study Findings — Victorville City Council, July 21, 2026

ATTACHMENT A
2026 Study Findings

Data valued as of 6/30/2025
Updated 4/6/2026
Protecting Public Funds
Data valued as of 6/30/2025
Updated 4/6/2026
Protecting Public Funds
Protecting Public Funds
Type of organization
Organizations
N that exist
in California
N (%) 2025
1985/1986 to
2024/2025
N (%) 2025
2015/2016 to
2024/2025 N (%) 2024
County 58 50 (86%) 50 (86%) 49 (84%)
Municipality 483 418 (86%) 416 (86%) 311 (64%)
School district* 936 601 (64%) 350 (37%) 300 (32%)
Other education** 233 134 137
Other agencies*** 688 581 489
Total 1,979 1,531 1,286
Datasets were provided by
more pools in 2025 than in
2024, and more years of
data were provided,
resulting in a greater
number of organizations
represented.
*These numbers represent current school districts that were named. One pool covering educational organizations submitted data without member names; some district names represented districts that no longer exist.
**This includes charter schools, universities, colleges, college districts, offices of education, etc. ***This includes county fairs, water districts, community service districts, parks and recreation agencies, transportation agencies, cemetery districts, vector control districts, etc.

Protecting Public Funds
While about 98% of claims
that occurred between
2015-16 and 2019-20 are
closed, only 43.5% of
claims in 2024-25 are
closed.

On average, it takes about
17 months to close a
claim. However, it takes
almost 6 years on average
for large claims (over $1
million) to close.

99.7%

99.3%

99.0%

98.7%

97.3%

95.2%

91.2%

88.6%

73.0%

43.5%
18,163
21,736
18,272
19,850
17,211
15,224
17,801
26,062
24,118
17,204
0%
100%
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Total
occurrences
Percent that have closed
by 6/30/2025
Participating California Public Entities
By Progra m Ye a r Da te of Loss
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds

0.0% 0.3%

2.0%

7.1%

29.6%

40.4%

10.0%10.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0-2
months
3-5
months
6-11
months
12-23
months
24-47
months
48-83
months
84-119
months
120+
months

8.4%

16.9%

35.0%

22.8%

10.4%

4.1%

1.2% 1.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0-2
months
3-5
months
6-11
months
12-23
months
24-47
months
48-83
months
84-119
months
120+
months
While 61% of large
occurrences took 4 or
more years to close
Due to the time it
takes for claims to
resolve, the
taxpayer amount
spent on liability
claims will
continue to grow
until all claims in
that period are
closed.

Percent of all occurrences
by months to close
Percent of large ($1M+) occurrences
by months to close
Among occurrences closed in
the last 10 years, about 7%
took 4 or more years to close
Protecting Public Funds

58.5%

39.8%

1.2% 0.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
$0 $1-
$249,999
$250,000-
$999,999
$1,000,000+

0.0%

20.6% 19.6%

59.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
$0 $1-
$249,999
$250,000-
$999,999
$1,000,000+
In the last 10 years,
large losses
(occurrences of
$1M or more) make
up less than 1% of
the claims, but,
represent 60% of
claim funds spent
using taxpayer
dollars.

Percent of occurrences by size Percent of dollars by size Large occurrences ($1M+)
account for less than 1% of the
total number of claims
HOWEVER, large occurrences
($1M+) account for 60% of the
dollars of claims
Protecting Public Funds
The number of large claims ($1M or
more) are increasing at an alarming
rate.

Between 2014-2015 and 2021-2022,
the number of large claims
increased by 66%.

Even by program year 2021-2022,
only 23.9% of the large claims have
closed.

A conservative forecast was made
for the number of large claims that
may develop. This forecast was
made using the percent of total
claims that will be large.

82.9%

84.1%

76.7%

70.9%

49.7%

40.9%

23.9%

16.9%

5.3%

0.0%
105
126
116
134
147
137
163
148
113
29 147 145
169
225
210
187
0%
100%
200%
0 50
100
150
200
Total large occurrences
Percent that have closed
by 6/30/2025
Participating California Public Entities
By Progra m Ye a r Da te of Loss
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Forecast
Protecting Public Funds
Taxpayer dollars being used
to fund claims made against
public entities are increasing
rapidly, nearly tripling (2.8x)
from 2017-2018 to
2024-2025, and are
projected to increase
another 65% from current
levels by 2027-2028.
$451M $442M
$527M $507M
$775M $759M
$1.10B
$1.27B
$1.50B
$1.78B
$2.10B
$50
$775
B
B
8BB
19,518
18,588
19,945
18,555 18,125
20,873
26,982 26,402
0 5,000
10, 000
15, 000
20, 000
25, 000
30, 000
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1, 000
$1, 250
$1, 500
$1, 750
$2, 000
$2, 250
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) model= Number of claims closed = (first-order autoregressive)
Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds
Taxpayer dollars being used
to fund large claims ($1M+)
made against public entities
are increasing rapidly, more
than tripling (3.4x) from
2017-2018 to 2024-2025,
and are projected to
increase another 79% from
current levels by 2027-2028.
$257M $249M $276M $264M
$487M $479M
$756M
$878M
$1.07B
$1.29B
$1.57B
6MM $2
$447
M
B
9B
83 85
102
88 129
111
169
241
0 50
100
150
200
250
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1, 000
$1, 250
$1, 500
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) model= Number of Claims Closed with (first-order autoregressive) Dates of loss 2014-2015 or later Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds
The average size of closed
claims that are more than $0
has more than doubled
(2.1x) from 2017-2018 to
2024-2025.

If increases were only due to
inflation, the average claim
size of $54,781 in 2017-2018
would be $70,314 in
2024-2025.
$55K $54K $54K $59K
$84K $83K
$99K
$115K
$129K
$146K
$164K
$54K $$559
83KK
K
K
K
$0$360$720$1, 080$1, 440$1, 800$2, 160$2, 520$2, 880$3, 240$3, 600$3, 960$4, 320$4, 680$5, 040$5, 400$5, 760$6, 120$6, 480$6, 840$7, 200$7, 560$7, 920$8, 280$8, 640$9, 000$9, 360$9, 720$10, 080$10, 440$10, 800$11, 160$11, 520$11, 880$12, 240$12, 600$12, 960$13, 320$13, 680$14, 040$14, 400$14, 760$15, 120$15, 480$15, 840$16, 200$16, 560$16, 920$17, 280$17, 640$18, 000$18, 360$18, 720$19, 080$19, 440$19, 800$20, 160$20, 520$20, 880$21, 240$21, 600$21, 960$22, 320$22, 680$23, 040$23, 400$23, 760$24, 120$24, 480$24, 840$25, 200$25, 560$25, 920$26, 280$26, 640$27, 000$27, 360$27, 720$28, 080$28, 440$28, 800$29, 160$29, 520$29, 880$30, 240$30, 600$30, 960$31, 320$31, 680$32, 040$32, 400$32, 760$33, 120$33, 480$33, 840$34, 200$34, 560$34, 920$35, 280$35, 640$36, 000$36, 360$36, 720$37, 080$37, 440$37, 800$38, 160$38, 520$38, 880$39, 240$39, 600$39, 960$40, 320$40, 680$41, 040$41, 400$41, 760$42, 120$42, 480$42, 840$43, 200$43, 560$43, 920$44, 280$44, 640$45, 000$45, 360$45, 720$46, 080$46, 440$46, 800$47, 160$47, 520$47, 880$48, 240$48, 600$48, 960$49, 320$49, 680$50, 040$50, 400$50, 760$51, 120$51, 480$51, 840$52, 200$52, 560$52, 920$53, 280$53, 640$54, 000$54, 360$54, 720$55, 080$55, 440$55, 800$56, 160$56, 520$56, 880$57, 240$57, 600$57, 960$58, 320$58, 680$59, 040$59, 400$59, 760$60, 120$60, 480$60, 840$61, 200$61, 560$61, 920$62, 280$62, 640$63, 000$63, 360$63, 720$64, 080$64, 440$64, 800$65, 160$65, 520$65, 880$66, 240$66, 600$66, 960$67, 320$67, 680$68, 040$68, 400$68, 760$69, 120$69, 480$69, 840$70, 200$70, 560$70, 920$71, 280$71, 640$72, 000$72, 360$72, 720$73, 080$73, 440$73, 800$74, 160$74, 520$74, 880$75, 240$75, 600$75, 960$76, 320$76, 680$77, 040$77, 400$77, 760$78, 120$78, 480$78, 840$79, 200$79, 560$79, 920$80, 280$80, 640$81, 000$81, 360$81, 720$82, 080$82, 440$82, 800$83, 160$83, 520$83, 880$84, 240$84, 600$84, 960$85, 320$85, 680$86, 040$86, 400$86, 760$87, 120$87, 480$87, 840$88, 200$88, 560$88, 920$89, 280$89, 640$90, 000$90, 360$90, 720$91, 080$91, 440$91, 800$92, 160$92, 520$92, 880$93, 240$93, 600$93, 960$94, 320$94, 680$95, 040$95, 400$95, 760$96, 120$96, 480$96, 840$97, 200$97, 560$97, 920$98, 280$98, 640$99, 000$99, 360$99, 720$100 ,0 8 0$100 ,4 4 0$100 ,8 0 0$101 ,1 6 0$101 ,5 2 0$101 ,8 8 0$102 ,2 4 0$102 ,6 0 0$102 ,9 6 0$103 ,3 2 0$103 ,6 8 0$104 ,0 4 0$104 ,4 0 0$104 ,7 6 0$105 ,1 2 0$105 ,4 8 0$105 ,8 4 0$106 ,2 0 0$106 ,5 6 0$106 ,9 2 0$107 ,2 8 0$107 ,6 4 0$108 ,0 0 0$108 ,3 6 0$108 ,7 2 0$109 ,0 8 0$109 ,4 4 0$109 ,8 0 0$110 ,1 6 0$110 ,5 2 0$110 ,8 8 0$111 ,2 4 0$111 ,6 0 0$111 ,9 6 0$112 ,3 2 0$112 ,6 8 0$113 ,0 4 0$113 ,4 0 0$113 ,7 6 0$114 ,1 2 0$114 ,4 8 0$114 ,8 4 0$115 ,2 0 0$115 ,5 6 0$115 ,9 2 0$116 ,2 8 0$116 ,6 4 0$117 ,0 0 0$117 ,3 6 0$117 ,7 2 0$118 ,0 8 0$118 ,4 4 0$118 ,8 0 0$119 ,1 6 0$119 ,5 2 0$119 ,8 8 0$120 ,2 4 0$120 ,6 0 0$120 ,9 6 0$121 ,3 2 0$121 ,6 8 0$122 ,0 4 0$122 ,4 0 0$122 ,7 6 0$123 ,1 2 0$123 ,4 8 0$123 ,8 4 0$124 ,2 0 0$124 ,5 6 0$124 ,9 2 0$125 ,2 8 0$125 ,6 4 0$126 ,0 0 0$126 ,3 6 0$126 ,7 2 0$127 ,0 8 0$127 ,4 4 0$127 ,8 0 0$128 ,1 6 0$128 ,5 2 0$128 ,8 8 0$129 ,2 4 0$129 ,6 0 0$129 ,9 6 0$130 ,3 2 0$130 ,6 8 0$131 ,0 4 0$131 ,4 0 0$131 ,7 6 0$132 ,1 2 0$132 ,4 8 0$132 ,8 4 0$133 ,2 0 0$133 ,5 6 0$133 ,9 2 0$134 ,2 8 0$134 ,6 4 0$135 ,0 0 0$135 ,3 6 0$135 ,7 2 0$136 ,0 8 0$136 ,4 4 0$136 ,8 0 0$137 ,1 6 0$137 ,5 2 0$137 ,8 8 0$138 ,2 4 0$138 ,6 0 0$138 ,9 6 0$139 ,3 2 0$139 ,6 8 0$140 ,0 4 0$140 ,4 0 0$140 ,7 6 0$141 ,1 2 0$141 ,4 8 0$141 ,8 4 0$142 ,2 0 0$142 ,5 6 0$142 ,9 2 0$143 ,2 8 0$143 ,6 4 0$144 ,0 0 0$144 ,3 6 0$144 ,7 2 0$145 ,0 8 0$145 ,4 4 0$145 ,8 0 0$146 ,1 6 0$146 ,5 2 0$146 ,8 8 0$147 ,2 4 0$147 ,6 0 0$147 ,9 6 0$148 ,3 2 0$148 ,6 8 0$149 ,0 4 0$149 ,4 0 0$149 ,7 6 0$150 ,1 2 0$150 ,4 8 0$150 ,8 4 0$151 ,2 0 0$151 ,5 6 0$151 ,9 2 0$152 ,2 8 0$152 ,6 4 0$153 ,0 0 0$153 ,3 6 0$153 ,7 2 0$154 ,0 8 0$154 ,4 4 0$154 ,8 0 0$155 ,1 6 0$155 ,5 2 0$155 ,8 8 0$156 ,2 4 0$156 ,6 0 0$156 ,9 6 0$157 ,3 2 0$157 ,6 8 0$158 ,0 4 0$158 ,4 0 0$158 ,7 6 0$159 ,1 2 0$159 ,4 8 0$159 ,8 4 0$160 ,2 0 0$160 ,5 6 0$160 ,9 2 0$161 ,2 8 0$161 ,6 4 0$162 ,0 0 0$162 ,3 6 0$162 ,7 2 0$163 ,0 8 0$163 ,4 4 0$163 ,8 0 0$164 ,1 6 0$164 ,5 2 0$164 ,8 8 0$165 ,2 4 0$165 ,6 0 0$165 ,9 6 0$166 ,3 2 0$166 ,6 8 0$167 ,0 4 0$167 ,4 0 0$167 ,7 6 0$168 ,1 2 0$168 ,4 8 0$168 ,8 4 0$169 ,2 0 0$169 ,5 6 0$169 ,9 2 0$170 ,2 8 0$170 ,6 4 0$171 ,0 0 0$171 ,3 6 0$171 ,7 2 0$172 ,0 8 0$172 ,4 4 0$172 ,8 0 0$173 ,1 6 0$173 ,5 2 0$173 ,8 8 0$174 ,2 4 0$174 ,6 0 0$174 ,9 6 0$175 ,3 2 0$175 ,6 8 0$176 ,0 4 0$176 ,4 0 0$176 ,7 6 0$177 ,1 2 0$177 ,4 8 0$177 ,8 4 0$178 ,2 0 0$178 ,5 6 0$178 ,9 2 0$179 ,2 8 0$179 ,6 4 0$180 ,0 0 0 Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Close Date
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds
The amount of taxpayer
money being paid to plaintiff
attorneys to resolve claims
against public entities is also
increasing exponentially,
with particularly large
increases in 2023-2024.

Note: This assumes plaintiff attorney fees
account for 30% of the total settlement.

Standard legal fees range from 30% to
50%, however, CAJPA is using the
conservative end of the range.
$72M $72M
$103M $95M
$143M
$166M
$261M
$299M
$370M
$458M
$568M
$95M
MM
$1666M
M
0MM
8M
$0
$250
$500
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds
Sexual Abuse and
Molestation (SAM) claims
have increased nearly
fivefold (4.8x) for schools or
school districts from
2015-2016 to 2024-2025.
.
99 112
130
95 101 102
184
233
325
479
110
4 233
25 74 89 93
61 59 68
144
167
248
364
6684 8
16 48
0 100
200
300
400
500
All organizations
Education organizations
Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds
$21M
$27M $24M
$14M
$6M
$18M
$13M
$47M
$98M
$132M
M
M
$44
$5M
$24M
$17M
$11M $2M $11M $3M
$43M
$62M
$88M
MM1111$$ $$$2$2$$22MMM
$
$443
$66
88 $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
All organizations
Education organizations
Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
From 2015-2016 to
2024-2025, taxpayer dollars
used per year to resolve SAM
claims has increased more
than sixfold.

The amount of taxpayer
money used to resolve SAM
claims increased enormously
after 2021-2022.

Protecting Public Funds
In addition to the escalating
loss payments, public
entities are struggling to find
insurance coverage.

The premiums are escalating
at an unsustainable pace,
forcing many agencies to
self-insure to $5M or more.
$115M $133M $136M $150M
$215M
$275M
$310M
$374M
$456M
$541M
$625M
$740M
$876M
$1.04B
6MM $$150M
M
M
5MM
0M
6 0
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1, 000
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities
Reinsurance/Excess Insurance Premiums
By Program Year
Protecting Public Funds
At least one closed claim of more than $1 million in last 10 years No closed claims of more than $1 million in last 10 years Not in dataset, or no closed claims for 7 or fewer of the last 10 years Many California
Communities have
seen a closed claim of
more than $1 million at
least once in the last 10
years.

Municipal governments
County governments
Protecting Public Funds
$6
$8
$7
$8
$13
$8
$14
$17
$19
$21
$24
$7
$8
$0
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities: Counties
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
The total dollars of closed claims for
counties represents about $17 per
county resident in 2024-2025. This is
more than double (2.8x) what had
been observed in 2017-2018, and is
projected to increase another 40% by
2027-2028.

Public libraries in California spend an
average of $4.49 per resident annually
on collections, including books and
other materials. The increase in
liability claim costs alone is more than
double this amount on a per-resident
basis.

Protecting Public Funds
$15
$12
$15 $15
$20
$23
$28
$32
$36
$42
$47
$$112
$15
3 $0
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities: Cities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
For cities, the total dollars of closed
claims represents about $32 per city
resident in 2024-2025. This is about
double than what had been observed
in 2017-2018, and is projected to
increase another 48% by 2027-2028.

A 2021 benchmarking study found
that solid waste services cost an
average of $47.55 per resident per
year, suggesting that the increase in
liability claim payments could cover
approximately 4 months of solid
waste operations.

Protecting Public Funds
$21 $23 $23
$28
$42 $44
$63
$75
$92
$112
$137
$233
$288
$$44
2 $0
Actual= Predicted with AR(1) (first-order autoregressive) model= Participating California Public Entities: School Districts By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
For school districts, the total dollars of
closed claims represents about $75
per pupil (ADA) in 2024-2025. This is
about triple what had been observed
in 2017-2018, and is projected to
nearly double (1.8x) by 2027-2028.

School libraries spend about $12 per
student annually on library resources
such as books and digital media,
about the amount closed claim dollars
increased in one year from 2023-2024
to 2024-2025.

Protecting Public Funds
The total dollars, of only
closed claims, represents
the following percent of tax
revenue in 2023-24:

Counties: 0.4%
Municipalities: 0.9%
School districts: 1%

0.41%

0.90%

0.98%
$0
Counties Municipalities School Districts
Participating California Public Entities
By Program Year Date Closed
Valued as of 6/30/2025
Protecting Public Funds