cc 2025 AR 04/03 update to the vista economic development strategy

ACTION:
____________________________

Clerk/Secretary
Department: Economic Development Item No:

Prepared by: Larry Vaupel, Director Meeting Date: April 3, 2025 Approved by:

Imelda M. Huerta, Assistant City
Manager
John Conley, City Manager Agenda Location: Workshop
S
UBJECT: UPDATE TO THE VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY RE
COMMENDATION: Receive updates on the Vista Economic Development Strategy and provide direction regarding future strategies.

CO
RRELATION TO CITY COUNCIL GOALS: Economic Development.

P
RIOR ACTION: On April 4, 2024, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2024 through 2026 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n March 1, 2022, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2022 through 2024 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n February 23, 2021, adopted City Council Resolution No. 2021-26, adopting, updating and implementing the Vista Economic Development Strategy (Vote: 5-0).

A
complete list of prior City Council actions is included as Exhibit 1.

S
TATEMENT ON THE SUBJECT: The Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS) was adopted by City Council on February 23, 2021. It is based on comprehensive research, stakeholder input, and a robust public outreach process. The VEDS reflects consensus views on the most promising opportunities and the most pressing challenges that were facing Vista’s economy in 2021. While the VEDS places primary emphasis on actions and initiatives to be pursued by the City, it recognizes that a wide array of public- and private-sector entities have roles in influencing the economic vitality of Vista.

The r
ecommended policies and program activities were based on an extensive planning process that included the following components:
• A
review of the City’s previous economic development strategy, and of existing and past economic development policies and programs.
• An analysis of Vista’s existing and projected demographic profile, providing an understanding of underlying trends that may affect economic growth potential.

AGENDA
REPORT

CITY COUNCIL

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION

SUCCESSOR AGENCY

BUENA SANITATION DISTRICT

JOINT POWERS FINANCING AUTHORITY
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MEETING DATE: April 3, 2025 PAGE 2
SUBJECT: UPDATE TO THE VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY • Direct input from a cross section of the City’s economic development stakeholders (the VEDS Committee listed below) via individual interviews and a series of workshop-type meetings. • A review of the various public- and private-sector entities involved in different aspects of economic development (or related activities), along with a summary of their existing program offerings. • An industry “cluster” analysis to identify the industry groups (clusters) that are the most important “engines” of the existing local economy, as well as the industry groups that are likely to offer t he
m
ost attractive growth potentials in the future.
• A real estate market analysis to identify potential future demand for commercial and industrial development in the City.

The V
EDS Committee was comprised of the following individuals:

C
ity of Vista
Judy Ritter, (former) Mayor
Corinna Contreras, Councilmember
Kevin Ham, (former) Economic Development Director
Del
ilah Langan, (former) Economic Development Specialist
O
ther Committee Members
Al Apuzzo, Lee & Associates
Rachel Beld, Vista Chamber of Commerce
Erik Bruvold, San Diego North Economic Development Council Andy Hall, San Diego Workforce Partnership
Clay McCarthy, Downtown Vista Representative
Adam Molnar, Hamann Companies (Vista Business Park)
Matt Sanford, (former) San Diego Regional EDC Representative Sudershan Shaunak, Small Business Development Center – North San Diego The V
EDS Action Plan is designed to achieve the following major goals:
• E
xpand economic opportunities for Vista’s resident workforce • Revitalize Vista’s commercial and industrial areas
• Strengthen the City’s fiscal position
W
hile many of the specific tasks assigned in the plan have been completed to some extent by either city staff or our partner agencies, there is still much work to be done. Having weathered the pandemic that confronted the city at the time the VEDS was created, we are now confronted with different economic and market factors that must inform our strategies moving forward.

The V
EDS Update plan (attached as Exhibit 3) has been modified to highlight the items that have been done since the VEDS was adopted (red font), items that are ongoing (green font), and items that are planned to be completed in 2025-2027 (purple font). It is important to note that there are a few items that were identified in the original VEDS that are not realistic to occur based upon current market and economic conditions. For example, with double-digit office vacancy rates, it is unlikely that we will attract Class A Office space. Staff resources should be deployed on items that are achievable and will have a greater return on our investment in resources. These outdated items are also highlighted in red font.

The 2025
-27 strategy includes a deep focus on entrepreneurial development and support. Residents seeking to start new businesses will be provided with training, technical assistance, and a robust online community of fellow entrepreneurs through the Vista Business Huub. The Vista Business Huub is 04/03/2025
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MEETING DATE: April 3, 2025 PAGE 3
SUBJECT: UPDATE TO THE VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY scheduled to launch July 1, 2025 and will allow entrepreneurs FREE access to nationally recognized training sessions and one-on-one technical assistance with other local entrepreneurs to help them launch, scale, or expand their business. Pending funding, a hybrid business incubator is proposed that will leverage the resources of the Vista Business Huub and memberships at the co-working space operated at the Film Hub.

S
ince 80 percent of new jobs are created by existing businesses as they grow and expand their business, the 2025-27 strategies include a proactive effort to connect to our existing employers in the business park to enhance the business assistance that is available to them from our partner agencies and city resources.

It has been challenging to make significant connections with many of our 900 businesses located in the Vista Business Park. This is due to remote work, a lack of local focus, remote offices handling many aspects of operations, and high turnover of staff (relocating to other company locations). Economic development staff will utilize paid digital media campaigns to increase awareness of our LinkedIn Company Page to attract employees located in Vista and promote our assistance and programs to them via this channel.

A
nother key aspect of the 2025-27 strategies is the increased amount of marketing Vista as a place where businesses succeed. Video testimonials of successful entrepreneurs in Vista will be used to highlight the business-forward attitude and “get it done” mindset that is prevalent in Vista. The residents of Vista truly appreciate our local businesses and are proud to support our entrepreneurial neighbors and “mom and pop” restaurants and shops. By targeting ads and messages to entrepreneurs in other communities with success stories from our local business leaders, we can promote Vista as the top choice for their next storefront or restaurant. Success breeds success. People naturally want to be part of exciting and successful endeavors. Through compelling storytelling, we can inspire the next generation of business leaders to invest in Vista.

Fi
nally, Downtown Vista has made significant strides to become the prime destination in Vista for people to come for dining, entertainment, and special events. We will continue to build on this momentum by activating the AVO Theater, double the number of special events throughout the year, and study parking and placemaking opportunities through the Downtown Vista Advisory Committee.

Thes
e strategies represent a small piece of the 2025-27 VEDS. The strategies that are planned for the next two years are highlighted in the purple font in the work plan of the Updated VEDS document (Exhibit 3). These do not include all the daily activities of economic development staff. However, the daily activities help us accomplish the three main objectives of the VEDS. Staff believe the updated VEDS embodies the economic development strategy that is needed to secure a bright future for Vista.

F
ISCAL IMPACT: There is no direct fiscal impact associated with the staff recommendation.

E
XHIBITS:

1. Prior City Council Actions

2. Vista Economic Development Strategy - 2021

3. Updated Vista Economic Development Strategy - 2025
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PRIOR CITY COUNCIL ACTIONS

VISTA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
On April 4, 2024, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2024 through 2026 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n March 1, 2022, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2022 through 2024 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n February 23, 2021, adopted City Council Resolution 2021-26, adopting, updating and implementing the Vista Economic Development Strategy (Vote: consensus).

O
n March 3, 2020, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2020 through 2022 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n March 6, 2018, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2018 through 2020 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: no vote).

O
n March 1, 2016, held a workshop and, by consensus, identified citywide goals for the period of 2016 through 2018 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: consensus).

O
n March 4, 2014, held a workshop and, by consensus identified citywide goals for the period of 2014 through 2016 and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: consensus).

O
n October 9, 2012, received the Economic Development Plan update (Vote: no vote).

O
n March 22, 2012, held a workshop to identify top priority goals for the next two years and identified Economic Development as a top priority (Vote: consensus).

O
n March 22, 2007, by consensus City Council Members agreed on ten City Strategic Goals for the period of 2007 through 2009 identifying the Economic Strategic Plan as goal #5 (Vote:
consensus)
O
n March 22, 2005, received the 2005-2007 City Council Goals to include develop economic strategic plan as a #2 priority item (Vote: consensus)
O
n May 13, 2003, received the 2003-2005 City Council Goals to include develop economic strategic plan as a #2 priority item (Vote: consensus)
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EXHIBIT 1

VISTA

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (VEDS)
Prepared for:

Ci
ty of Vista, California
February 24, 2021
PREPARED BY:

THE NATELSON DALE GROUP,
INC .

YORBA LINDA, CA • www.natelsondale.com
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EXHIBIT 2

Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Overview of the Strategic Planning Process .................................................................................... 1 VEDS Committee .............................................................................................................................. 2

2. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 3 Action Plan Goals and Scope ............................................................................................................ 3 Strategic Plan Overall Framework Interrelationships ...................................................................... 4 Prioritization of City Resources ........................................................................................................ 5 VEDS Strategies ................................................................................................................................ 5 Recommended Business Retention/Expansion/Attraction Targets ................................................ 6

3. SWOT Assessment..................................................................................................................................... 8

4. Highlights of Background/Technical Studies ........................................................................................... 16 Demographic Profile ...................................................................................................................... 16 Market Demand Projections for Commercial/Industrial Land Uses .............................................. 18 Summary of Retail Demand Analysis ............................................................................................. 18 Summary of Industrial Demand Analysis ....................................................................................... 19 Summary of Office Demand Analysis ............................................................................................. 21 Target Industry/Cluster Analysis .................................................................................................... 23 Existing Important Clusters in Vista and Innovate 78 Corridor ..................................................... 23 “Candidate” Clusters for Vista’s Target Industry Program ............................................................ 25

5. VEDS Action Plan ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Overview of Action Plan ................................................................................................................. 27 Prioritization of City Resources ...................................................................................................... 27 Recommended Business Retention/Expansion/Attraction Targets .............................................. 28 VEDS Strategies .............................................................................................................................. 31 Implementation Timeframes ......................................................................................................... 32 Appendix A: Existing Programs/Resources Relevant to the VEDS .............................................................. 47

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1 1. Introduction
This
document provides a strategic framework to guide the City of Vista’s economic development policies and programs over the next 5 years. The Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS) is based on a comprehensive research and stakeholder input and outreach processes, and reflects consensus views on the most promising opportunities and the most pressing challenges facing Vista’s economy.

While the VEDS places primary emphasis on actions and initiatives to be pursued by the City, it recognizes that a wide array of public- and private-sector entities have roles in influencing the economic vitality of Vista. In this regard, some of the recommended actions will be carried out through partnerships with other entities. Even for those action items in which the City’s role is essentially coordination, this function can take many forms and is often critical to solving problems that may not otherwise have a clear constituency or single responsible entity assigned to resolving them.

Overview of the Strategic Planning Process
The recommended policies and program activities are based on an extensive planning process that included the following components:
• A
review of the City’s previous economic development strategy, and of existing and past e
conomic development policies and programs.
• An analysis of Vista’s existing and projected demographic profile, providing an understanding of underlying trends that may affect economic growth potentials. • Direct input from a cross section of the City’s economic development stakeholders (the VEDS Committee listed below) via individual interviews and a series or workshop-type meetings. • A review of the various public- and private-sector entities involved in different aspects of economic development (or related activities), along with a summary of their existing program offerings.
• An industry “cluster” analysis to identify the industry groups (clusters) that are the most important “engines” of the existing local economy, as well as the industry groups that are likely to offer the most attractive growth potentials in the future. • A real estate market analysis to identify potential future demand for commercial and indust rial
d
evelopment in the City.

F
or both the industry cluster analysis and the real estate demand projections, conclusions were screened through the lens of the current pandemic to identify ways in which immediate and longer-term market opportunities may be altered due to current conditions.

W
here relevant, key findings of the background and technical studies are referenced in the VEDS. The full studies are provided as separate reports.
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2 VEDS Committee

The City of Vista gratefully acknowledges the participation of the following individuals in the preparation of the VEDS.

City of Vista
Judy Ritter, Mayor
Corinna Contreras, Councilmember
Kevin Ham, Economic Development Director
D
elilah Langan, Economic Development Specialist

Other Committee Members
Al Apuzzo, Lee & Associates
Rachel Beld, Vista Chamber of Commerce
Erik Bruvold, San Diego North Economic Development Council Andy Hall, San Diego Workforce Partnership
Clay McCarthy, Downtown Vista Representative
Adam Molnar, Hamann Companies (Vista Business Park)
Matt Sanford, (former) San Diego Regional EDC Representative Sudershan Shaunak, Small Business Development Center – North San Diego

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3 2. Executive Summary
Action Plan Goals and Scope
The VEDS Action Plan is designed to achieve the following major goals:

• Expand economic opportunities for Vista’s resident workforce • Revitalize Vista’s commercial and industrial areas
• Strengthen the City’s fiscal position

Whereas these goals largely revolve around attracting and retaining targeted business investment, the Action Plan recognizes that the strength of the local business/development environment will ultimately depend on Vista’s strategic attention to a range of “foundational” conditions such as:

• Education/workforce development systems
• Entrepreneurial development resources
• The City’s reputation for business/development friendliness • Land, zoning and infrastructure capacity
• Placemaking activities that leverage Vista’s unique locational advantages and sense of community
• Overall image and quality of life
The following graphic provides a broad “framework” that summarizes the interrelationships in Vista pertaining to business targeting, foundational issues, and the broad structure of marketing efforts. The chart indicates:
• How strategies center around Vista’s assets that can be leveraged • The influence of external forces on strategy development • How City actions in foundational issues support quality-of-life in Vista, enhancing community assets
• How marketing programs will relate to various categories of actions

On a practical level, implementation of this framework will be carried out through the 12 specific strategies outlined below.
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4 Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS): Overall Framework Interrelationships Quality-of-life actions:
• Response to
pandemic and policy
carryover
• Targeted-are
a
e
nhancement
• Workforce
d
evelopment
• Entrepreneurial
d
evelopment
• Business friendliness
External influences:
• Neighboring cities’
strengths, niches, and
limitations
• Regional economic
strengths
• Partnerships in
economi
c
d
evelopment, job
training
Assets to leverage,
encourage, and refine:
• Downtown
• Upgradable business
corridors
• Already diverse
economy
• Makers
• Housing affordability
• Working population
Support, attract
industries:
• D
efine opportunities
in concert with
existing economic
base, surroundin
g
c
ities, and region
• Define and guide
physical development
opportunities
City action focus:
• Internal operational
re
views
• Study mobility,
parking, target are
a
p
lanning, rezoning,
etc.
• Social systems
support (education,
childcare, etc.)
Strategic marketing to
people
Support tenant
recruitment, job growth
Strategic marketing to
businesses
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5 Prioritization of City Resources
The VEDS is intended to provide a “roadmap” to guide activities and programs of the City’s Economic Development Department over the next five years (starting in Fiscal Year 2021-2022). Consistent with the expected availability of resources, the Action Plan assumes that the City’s economic development staff1 will remain constant over 5-year implementation period of this plan. As such, the Action Plan is intended to assist the City in aligning its program priorities to match the market opportunities identified during this planning effort, recognizing that:

• Many of the proposed strategies involve activities that the City is already undertaking to some extent;
• New activities/programs would be phased-in over several years; and • Most of the strategies would be carried out in collaboration with various non-City partner organizations (many of which have participated in the development of this plan).

VEDS Strategies

The VEDS Action Plan is organized around 12 major strategies, shown below organized under the headings of A) Industry Targeting, B) Umbrella Programs, and C) Land Use/Placemaking:

A. I ndustry Targeting: Business Development/Job Creation

1. Focus City’s business retention/expansion/attraction efforts around high-priority industry clusters (see also last section of this Executive Summary)

2. Collaborate with regional partners to expand availability of entrepreneurial development resources in Vista

3. Enhance targeted economic development marketing program, consistent with City’s broader (existing) branding initiatives

B. U mbrella Programs: Creating an Environment for Economic Progress

4. Enhance City’s interface with education/workforce development partners

5. Elevate City’s excellent reputation for business/development friendliness via a branded program (e.g., “Vista Works”)

1 Current full-time equivalent staff of 2.3 City employees.

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6 6. Leverage the City’s in-house resources for economic development through strategic partnerships, interdepartmental collaboration, and community involvement. (e.g. having the Chamber lead coordination of a workforce development initiative)

C. L and Use / Placemaking Programs: Physical Changes to Accommodate Quality Growth

7. Position Downtown Vista as a regional arts/entertainment center

8. Facilitate repurposing of high-vacancy retail commercial centers (long-term vacancy level of 15% or more, especially if anchor tenants have been lost or replaced with more marginal uses) based on potential market demand for other land uses (including industrial, office, residential and mixed-use)

9. Coordinate with ownership of Vista Business Park properties and associations to ensure long-term vibrancy of this critical business district

10. Identify other commercial corridors/districts warranting long-term reinvestment and/or repositioning

11. Conduct comprehensive evaluation of City’s zoning and related land use policies, to ensure capacity for anticipated development demand

12. Align City’s Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) with VEDS based on a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure needs in high-priority development areas

Recommended Business Retention/Expansion/Attraction Targets The VEDS target industry analysis identified a total of 15 industry clusters that are of potential interest to Vista. Among the 15 clusters, eight are recommended as priority targets for this Action Plan2. The priority and other clusters are organized below under the three categorical headings within which they were derived:
• Core strengths. Build on Vista’s existing core strengths in “traded” (dollar-importing) clusters (biopharmaceuticals would be an example of a core strength) • Regional clusters. Tap into dominant regional industry clusters that are not currently well represented in Vista (e.g., hospitality and tourism)
• “Home grown” industries. Foster home grown industries based on Vista’s unique community character (e.g., food and beverage production, including breweries)

2 In order to efficiently concentrate available marketing resources on the most promising target industries, the VEDS will include an initial focus on the eight priority clusters. The remaining seven clusters would potentially be added as secondary priorities later in the implementation period (i.e., Year 3 or later). 04/03/2025
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7 Cluster recommendations
reflecting:

Priority Industry Cluster Core
strengths
Regional
clusters
“Home
grown”
industries

1. Biopharmaceuticals X

2. Medical devices X

3. Information technology (software development) X

4. Aerospace vehicles and defense X

5. Distribution and electronic commerce X

6. Education and knowledge creation X

7. Food and beverage processing X

8. Entertainment/arts-oriented businesses X

Cluster recommendations
reflecting:

Other Locally Significant Clusters Core
strengths
Regional
clusters
“Home
grown”
industries

9. Information technology (hardware) & Analytical Instruments X

10. Plastics X

11. Production Technology & Heavy Machinery X

12. Hospitality and Tourism X

13. Business Services X

14. Marketing, Design & Publishing X

15. Businesses Tied to “Community of Makers” Theme X

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8 3. SWOT Assessment

The technical studies and stakeholder input provided the basis for identification of important SWOT (strength-weakness-opportunity-threat) issues affecting Vista’s economic development potentials.

These issues are summarized below.

Strengths
Vista is an inclusive, diverse community.

Compared to its larger surrounding region, Vista has a relatively high share of the population in the labor force, which appears to be at least partly due to particularly high participation of females in the labor force.

The City’s proactive and creative response to helping the business community as well as citizens respond to pandemic challenges has both enhanced business activity and fostered a marketing message.

The local economy is relatively diverse; “traded” (dollar-importing) industry clusters (with representative examples of existing local firms) include:
• Medical Devices (Cue Health)
• IT & Analytical Instruments (Tempo)
• Biopharmaceuticals (Bachem Americas)
• Plastics (Distinctive Plastics)
• Aerospace Vehicles and Defense (LMI)
• Production Technology & Heavy Machinery (McCain Inc.) • Distribution and Electronic Commerce (Amazon)
The area’s prominent (“home grown”) industry success stories include biotech and craft brewing. Local food and beverage processing industries could grow.

Vista has an identity, including among the owners/operators of relevant business types, as a place for “makers” of unique and notable products across a wide spectrum of industry categories. This is a source of pride among these firms and generally in the community, and can be leveraged in ways that include branding and expanding strategic options such as hosting local Expos featuring these kinds of firms.

Downtown offers a phenomenal, diverse, and (still evolving) expandable experience.

Vista is recognized as a business-friendly community, and this could be additionally leveraged to both support new development and as a marketing message. However, it is important to recognize that this advantage requires ongoing vigilance to maintain a positive reputation.

Housing is relatively affordable (compared to other parts of San Diego County).

The City of Vista has established strong partnerships with several regional economic and workforce development organizations (e.g., Innovate 78, San Diego Regional EDC, San Diego Workforce 04/03/2025
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9 Partnership, SBDC, the Vista Chamber of Commerce, etc.). By consistently maintaining an active/visible profile in these partnerships, the City has very effectively leveraged its in-house staffing and resources.

Weaknesses
Within Vista, there is an oversupply of Class B and C office space, and a shortage of Class A space.

Whereas the predominance of Class B and C space previously was part of Vista’s cost advantage, present-day users tend to prefer Class A space, so in this sense Vista’s supply of office space is out of sync with the office market. The ongoing transformation of workplaces due the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., expanded and potentially permanent focus on remote work) is likely to exacerbate the oversupply of Class B and C office space, creating opportunities for transitions to other land uses.

The inventory of office space in Vista, in proportion to the inventory of industrial space, is small.

Absorption of office is also much lower, and vacancy higher. The pandemic-induced trend of working from home could further reduce demand for some types of offices.

Because Vista is largely built-out there are limited opportunities to develop space to meet market demand, particularly for office, without having to redevelop properties.

There are also industrial areas in the City that could be more productively utilized (e.g., the South Santa Fe Avenue corridor and the area near North Drive and Melrose Drive).

Some downtown businesses believe that parking there is inadequate (although a study by the City shows that parking is currently sufficient but would need to be expanded to accommodate future development unless it provides sufficient internal parking).

More than one-half (53%) of Vista’s housing units were built between the 20-year period from 1970 to 1989, a relatively high share compared to the surrounding region, and this can create challenges in maintaining the quality of housing units and neighborhoods.

Residents’ education attainment levels are lower on average, compared to the larger surrounding region.

Local school districts could do better, from both an economic development perspective and an educational perspective.

Child care shortage is a huge issue in the entire region (see https://childcare.workforce.org/), and the pandemic is further exacerbating this problem.

Opportunities
T
he former National University campus would have been a good fit for the proposed (but rejected) San Diego campus of OCSA. Is this a “missed opportunity” and an example of the type of catalyst Vista should be targeting?
Downtown’s attractiveness can be expanded upon in a number of ways and leveraged in terms of, for example, attracting workers to whom a sense of place would have appeal – ideally as a workplace location but even as a general community amenity (along with downtown being attractive to visitors). 04/03/2025
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10 Vista could strategize to repurpose surplus/obsolete retail facilities.

Physical and “thematic” connections to Downtown can be developed further, to additionally capitalize on its value, for example by finding additional ways to connect with the Sprinter station (this can be particularly relevant with respect to downtown events), and creating additional employment space nearby. In addition, an expansion of transportation alternatives including a light rail system throughout North County is currently proposed (by SANDAG), which could provide additional connection opportunities.

Vista’s capacity for employment growth could be enhanced by: 1) improving under-performing industrial properties, and 2) direct efforts to create additional office space, as referenced above (Weakness section). Development of office and industrial space could potentially occur on former retail sites, as part of a strategic effort to revitalize/repurpose high-vacancy retail shopping centers.

There is strong demand for Biotech in North County; vacancy rates are already very tight in Central County.

Education plays such a crucial role in worker location decisions that the City should look beyond the traditional hands-off relationship between municipalities and school districts. It is also important that education at all levels keep track of changes in the economy and respond appropriately with their programs.

Tech industries in the San Diego region, partly due to the presence of UCSD, have back-office operations etc. that could be captured within Vista. (Also referred to as Shared Service Centers (SSCs), back-office functions can include HR, payroll, finance, procurement, legal, customer service, and IT, and centralizing these operations can result in greater efficiencies to companies’ home offices.) A local example of this type of opportunity would be Cue Health.

Parking needs, particularly in downtown areas, are evolving, and creative responses to these circumstances could further boost development efforts Downtown and elsewhere.

Creative zoning revisions could help the process of converting some older areas into more productive uses. (These can include proactive steps to expedite change requests and overlay zones targeting specific areas for special provisions, for example.)
The existing federal Opportunity Zones can represent an additional way for the City to leverage new development, although the City should pay close attention to how the potential for this program is evolving, including whether some regulations need to be adjusted to enhance this potential.

Programs and various initiatives of the San Diego Regional EDC and the San Diego Workforce Partnership can be helpful to Vista, for example worker training programs, research that will result in other training/education programs based on skill set demands in the region, and a focus on talent attraction more than business attraction, which plays well to Vista’s attractiveness as a place to live.

Threats
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11 Neighboring Carlsbad, a high-profile community, is also a direct competitor for at least some higher end uses and jobs, including Class A office space.

In recent years some light manufacturing and tech activities have been lost within the region, primarily due to cost conditions in California, generally, forcing firms out of the state. Attention should be given to this type of external threat in relation to the existing business base, and what it could mean to Vista’s economy.

Homelessness is a significant issue, including in Downtown. In the absence of a concerted response, this problem is likely to worsen over time.
3 Efforts to nurture entrepreneurship must recognize the racial/ethnic diversity of the population, which will also help ensure that the business community is in sync with local consumer demand, enhancing prosperity for all concerned.
4 Retail is important to the Downtown area (as well as the city generally), and that segment of the economy is undergoing many changes. One area in which Downtown could potentially capitalize is the shift in focus to outdoor space and outdoor-oriented “malls,” as well as the popularity of “experiences” being connected to retail activity.
5 Working from home, to the extent it continues as an ongoing trend, will change the nature of business.

Virtually all cities are threatened by losses in sales tax, transient occupancy tax and fee-for-services revenues due to COVID-19, and so need to be mindful of both expediting business recovery and preserving the taxpaying base.

3 The City's recently adopted Strategic Plan to Address Homelessness includes a three-pronged approach:
promoting self-sufficiency to prevent homelessness, improving the quality of life for the homeless, and in the process, for others, and reducing homelessness through programs that focus on long -term housing and other solutions.
4 Vista and regional partners are working on obtaining initial seed funding to establish a ‘Business Resilience Lab’ for the northern San Diego County region. The Lab will have several, related missions focusing on reducing businesses’ economic losses associated with COVID-19 as well as potential future economic disruptions. 5 Vista’s pandemic-response provision that relaxed outdoor dining regulations for restaurants, although originally intended to be temporary, may become permanent in some form as one way of recognizing this trend. 04/03/2025
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12 SWOT TABLE (THE PRECEDING NARRATIVE IN TABLE FORM)
SWOT category Land use/development conditions Business/industry mix Government/institutions, including City internal policies/practices (real/perceived)
Strengths
• Vista has an identity as a place for “makers”
of unique and notable products across a
wide spectrum of industry categories.
• The local economy is relatively diverse;
Traded Clusters include:
o Medical Devices
o IT & Analytical Instruments
o Biopharmaceuticals
o Plastics
o Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
o Production Technology & Heavy
Machinery
o Distribution and Electronic
Commerce
• Downtown offers a phenomenal, diverse,
and (still evolving) expandable experience.
• Housing is relatively affordable in the
community.
• Local food and beverage
processing industries could
grow.
• The City’s proactive and creative response to
helping the business community respond to
pandemic challenges has raised its profile
generally.
• Vista is recognized as a business-friendly
community, and this can be additionally
leveraged to both support new development
and as a marketing message.
• Inclusive/diverse community.

Implications of
pandemic
Is the Downtown environment more amenable
to certain possible post-pandemic physical
adjustments (flexible spaces, outdoor areas,
etc.)?
Local food could gain in popularity
based on the perception that it has
less potential exposure to
contagious environments than
imports.

As noted above, creative leadership can be crucial to
both recovery and business image.

Weaknesses
• There is an oversupply of Class B and C office
space, and a shortage of Class A space.
• The inventory of office space in Vista, in
proportion to industrial space, is very small.
• Because Vista is largely built-out there are
limited opportunities to develop space to

• Downtown parking, although technically
adequate based on a study completed for the
City, may function better under conditions in
which drivers can be made more aware of
where parking is available (via cell phone etc.).
• Local school districts could do better, from both
an economic development perspective and an
educational perspective.
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13 SWOT category Land use/development conditions Business/industry mix Government/institutions, including City internal policies/practices (real/perceived)
meet market demand, particularly for office,
without having to redevelop properties.
• Some industrial areas could be considered
under-performing.
• More than one-half (53%) of Vista’s housing
units were built between the 20-year period
from 1970 to 1989, a relatively high share
for the region.

• Childcare shortage is a huge problem in the
entire region.

Implications of
pandemic
Office use practices may change post-pandemic,
in ways not necessarily understood as yet. Space
developed in Vista in the future might be able to
ride the wave of such changes. (For example,
space needs in central offices may contract, but
remote workers living in Vista might need
temporary meeting facilities or regular full-time
offices.)

Major disruptions in travel, parking, including the
use of personal vehicles are already underway due
to autonomous vehicle technology and other
factors. Additional light rail is proposed for Vista
through SANDAG. The pandemic is likely to change
mobility preferences in ways not necessarily
understood as yet, so all these factors must be
considered together in future mobility and parking
plans.

Opportunities
• The former National University campus
would have been a good fit for the proposed
(but rejected) San Diego campus of OCSA. Is
this a “missed opportunity” and an example
of the type of catalyst Vista should be
targeting?
• Downtown’s attractiveness can be expanded
upon and leveraged as a “sense of place”
amenity for attracting workers, as well as
being a destination for residents and
tourists.
• Physical connections to Downtown can be
developed further, such as enhancing
connections with the light rail station and
workplaces.
• Vista’s “maker” reputation is a
source of pride and can be
leveraged – for branding and
expanding strategic options
such as hosting relevant
events.
• Tech industries in the region
have back-office operations
etc. that could potentially be
captured within Vista.
• Downtown could potentially
benefit from the shift in
shopping focus to outdoor
space and outdoor-oriented
“malls,” as well as the
• The City’s program to respond to pandemic
challenges has both enhanced business activity
and fostered a marketing message.
• Vista’s reputation as a business-friendly
community could be leveraged to both support
new development and as a marketing message.
• Education plays such a crucial role in worker
location decisions that the City should look
beyond the traditional hands-off relationship
between municipalities and school districts. It is
also important that education at all levels keep
track of changes in the economy and respond
appropriately with their programs.
• Creative zoning revisions could help convert
some older areas into more productive uses.
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14 SWOT category Land use/development conditions Business/industry mix Government/institutions, including City internal policies/practices (real/perceived)
• Improving under-performing industrial
properties, as well as direct efforts to create
additional office space, could benefit from
revitalization/repurposing of properties and
commercial neighborhoods, and thereby
help meet the need for upgraded
employment space.
• Vista could strategize to repurpose retail,
but opportunities to do this on a large scale
are limited.
• There is strong demand for Biotech space in
North County; vacancy rates are already very
tight in Central County.
•
• Parking needs, particularly in downtown
areas, are evolving, and creative responses
to these circumstances could further boost
development efforts.

popularity of “experiences”
being connected to retail
activity.
• The existing federal Opportunity Zones in Vista
might be enhanced through additional City
focus.
• Programs and various initiatives of the San
Diego Regional EDC can be helpful to Vista, for
example research that will result in a
training/education program based on skill set
demands in the region, and a focus on talent
attraction more than business attraction, which
plays to Vista’s attractiveness as a place to live.
• San Diego Workforce Partnership, “Relief,
Response, Rebuild” ($10 million in training and
wage subsidies).

Implications of
pandemic
Changes in land use practices related to the
pandemic, along with mobility and general
lifestyle changes, spurred by both the pandemic
and new technology, suggest the need for
comprehensive and innovative approaches to
revitalization planning and urban design in
general.

Pandemic practices related to
working remotely could be one
factor further encouraging
entrepreneurial inclinations among
the workforce, and this can be
encouraged through both
programmatic support and the
creation of additional appropriate
maker spaces.

The pandemic has placed additional stress on
schools and school districts and their missions,
which might help open the door to creative city-
school collaborations.

The limited life span of the Opportunity Zone
program will probably mean that intervention will
be needed at the federal level, as well as the local
level to the extent practical, to help mitigate
complications due to pandemic-related project
delays.

Threats
• Homelessness is an issue, including in
Downtown, and this problem is likely to
worsen over time. (City’s Strategic Plan to
• Small businesses are facing an
unprecedented disaster from
the pandemic.
• Efforts to nurture entrepreneurship must
recognize the racial/ethnic diversity of the
population, to both help ensure that the
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Address Homelessness is attempting to
address.)
• Carlsbad is both next-door and
is a direct competitor for some
higher-end employment/
property uses.
• Some light manufacturing and
tech activities have been lost
within the region due to cost
conditions in California. What
are implications for Vista?
• Retail is undergoing many
changes, affecting both retail
businesses and shopping
centers/locations.
• Working from home, to the
extent it continues as an
ongoing trend, will change the
nature of business.
business community is in sync with local
consumer demand and enhance prosperity for
all concerned.
• Virtually all cities are threatened by losses in
sales tax, TOT and fee-for-services revenues due
to COVID-19, and so need to be mindful of both
expediting business recovery and preserving the
taxpaying base.

Implications of
pandemic
The pandemic has likely worsened the homeless
problem by itself, and although the city has
outlined a strong program to intervene at the
local level, homelessness is ultimately a national
problem that is best addressed at that level or at
the least regionally, in order to generate the
most efficient and sustainable solutions, and
local governments need to maintain a realistic
view of the extent to which they can solve this
problem with their own resources.

With the pandemic encouraging
workers to function remotely, the
attractiveness of “lifestyle value”
communities has increased. It is
also reasonable to expect that
businesses will be more inclined to
co-locate with their workforce than
they were previously.

Expanding entrepreneurship opportunities can help
alleviate potentially permanent job losses related to
economic stress from the pandemic, especially to
the extent entrepreneurs can be more “nimble” in
adapting to economic constraints and opportunities.

Similarly, employed persons working remotely can
benefit from some of the same entrepreneur-
focused resources and also be attracted to the
community through the same attributes favored by
“footloose” entrepreneurs.
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16 4. Highlights of Background/Technical Studies

Demographic Profile6

The highlights of the demographic report selected for this summary, which includes comparisons with the Innovate 78 Corridor, San Diego County, and California, include the following findings:
• The City has a relatively high share of the population in the labor force compared to the benchmark regions.
o Higher female labor force participation appears to account for the overall higher labor force participation rate.
• Vista residents are more likely to drive alone (82.2% use car, truck, or van) () to commute to work; they are less likely to carpool or use public transportation (5.3% and 1.4%, respectively). • In terms of occupational employment, Vista residents hold a relatively higher share of jobs in Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance occupations. • In terms of industry sector employment, the largest share of Vista residents is employed in the Educational Services and Health Care and Social Assistance industry sector (16.1%). • The City has a relatively smaller share (11.7%) of its residents employed in the Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative & Waste Management Services sector. • For the income and benefits category, the largest share of Vista households (21.6%) is in the $50,000 to $74,999 household income range. The City’s households are relatively underrepresented (6.2%) in the highest household income range ($200,000 or more). • The City’s average household income level ($91,621) is relatively lower than the level in the benchmark geographies.
• The City’s per capita income level is about 80% ($29,875) of the benchmark geographies’ level for Innovate 78, San Diego County, and California ($37,402, $37,841, and $37,124, respectively). • A significant portion of the City’s Civilian noninstitutionalized population 19 to 64 years in the (unemployed) labor force (41.1%) has no health insurance coverage. • Poverty rates –While the All families category in Vista had the lowest share below the poverty level (6.3%), the City had the highest share of Married couple families (6.0%) in this category, among the benchmark geographies.

6 This summary is excerpted from Analysis of Key Datasets for Economic Development Strategic Plan, The Natelson Dale Group, Inc., July 2020.

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17 o For the Families with female householder, no husband present category, the City has a much smaller share below the poverty level (9.9%) compared to the benchmark geographies.
o In terms of individuals, the City had the lowest share of residents below the poverty level in the following two categories: 18 years and over (9.0%) and 18 to 64 years (8.3%).

However, among the 65 years and over category, the City had the highest share of residents (13.8%) below the poverty level.
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18 Market Demand Projections for Commercial/Industrial Land Uses Summary of Retail Demand Analysis
Highlights of the Retail Demand Analysis and Projections are provided in Tables 1 and 2 below.

TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS, CITY OF VISTA Metric Value
Existing (2020) inventory (square feet) 5,200,000
Historic absorption (square feet), 2010-2019 200,000
Current (12/31/20) vacancy rate7 6.3%
Existing population, City of Vista 102,900
Added population by 2030, City of Vista 9,300
Existing population, Secondary Market Areas (combined) 670,000 Added population by 2030, Secondary Market Areas 45,000 Estimated resident retail demand in 2019, City of Vista $1.07 billion Actual retail sales in 2019, City of Vista $1.31 billion Actual sales divided by total resident demand (shows Vista’s net attraction of external demand) 123%
Estimated “capturable” demand from Vista residents and
large trade area (takes into account spending that is
captured by neighboring cities)
$1.37 billion
Portion of potential demand captured in Vista 95.7%
Existing “residual” demand (potential demand minus actual sales) $90 million
Sources: Lee & Associates; CDTFA; DOF; ESRI; TNDG.

TABLE 2. PROJECTED DEMAND FOR NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENT, CITY OF VISTA Retail Sales Category
New Demand
Through 2030
(square feet)
GAFO1 206,000
Food and Beverage (grocery stores) 52,000
Food Services and Drinking (restaurants) 56,000 Hardware and Building Materials 55,000
Auto Parts 5,000
Service Businesses in Retail Space 56,000
Total 430,000

1. GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture/Appliances, Other Specialty Source:

TNDG.

7 Prior to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vista’s retail vacancy rate was 4.4% (as of March 31, 2020).

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19 Summary of Industrial Demand Analysis
Highlights of the Industrial Demand Analysis and Projections are provided in Tables 3 and 4 below. The projections are expressed in terms of square feet of new space supportable (over and above the existing inventory).

TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF INDUSTRIAL MARKET CONDITIONS, VISTA AND MARKET AREA Metric Value
Existing (2020) inventory (square feet) by area:
—City of Vista1
—Innovate 78 cities2
—San Diego County

12,900,000
46,800,000
146,400,000
Historic absorption (square feet) by area (2010-2019):
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County

292,000
4,261,000
9,218,000
Current8 direct vacancy rate by area:
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County
12/31/19

7.5%

6.9%

4.5%
12/31/20

7.1%

6.1%

4.0%
Total employment in 2019 by area:
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County

47,300
237,600
1,593,000
Added employment by 2030:
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County
1,900
12,300
101,300

1. The data source used for this analysis excludes some smaller and owner- occupied buildings; actual inventory in Vista is about 14 million square feet.

2. Includes the cities of Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Vista.

Sources: Lee & Associates; JobsEQ; SANDAG; TNDG.

8 Vacancy rates are compared for two timeframes (12/31/19 and 12/31/20) to show the initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the commercial/industrial real estate market.

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20 TABLE 4. PROJECTED DEMAND FOR NEW INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, 2019-2029 Methodology 1: Sector Employment Growth
(BASELINE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST)
San Diego County
Demand
(Square Feet)
Vista
Demand
(Square Feet)
Countywide: industrial demand is projected to
grow in proportion to projected job growth in
industry sectors that use industrial space. This
scenario uses the baseline forecast from JobsEQ
(Chmura Economics) which, consistent with
SANDAG forecasts, shows substantially lower
growth in industrial jobs compared to recent
historic trends (2009-2019).

Vista: 10% of countywide demand (Vista
currently accounts for 8.4% of occupied industrial
space in county)
Negative industrial
demand (based on
projected job losses
in manufacturing)
N/A
Methodology 2: Sector Employment Growth
(ACCELERATED EMPLOYMENT FORECAST)
Countywide: industrial demand is projected to
grow in proportion to projected job growth in
industry sectors that use industrial space. This
scenario adjusts the baseline forecast from
JobsEQ so that projected growth rates for
industrial jobs are comparable to recent historic
trends (see additional discussion below).

Vista: 10% of countywide demand
9,300,000 930,000
Methodology 3: Total Employment Growth
Countywide: industrial demand is projected to
grow in proportion to total employment growth

Vista: 10% of countywide demand
8,900,000 890,000
Methodology 4: Continuation of Historic
Absorption Rate
Countywide: industrial demand is projected to
continue at average annual absorption rate (net
change in occupied square feet) between 2010
and 2019)

Vista: 10% of countywide demand
10,200,000 1,020,000
Source: TNDG.
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21 The negative industrial demand for Methodology 1 reflects the anticipated loss in manufacturing jobs9 (a key user of industrial space) between 2019 and 2029. The projected reduction in manufacturing jobs is indicated in the two primary employment forecasts considered in this analysis (SANDAG and JobsEQ).

The SANDAG and JobsEQ forecasts also indicate reduced growth rates for Wholesale Trade and Transportation and Warehousing (other key users of industrial space) compared to recent historic (2009- 2019) trends. Methodology 2 adjusts the baseline forecasts to reflect more robust growth in these industries (which is highly plausible given the anticipated focus on “reshoring” of manufacturing activities in the wake of COVID-19). The growth rate adjustments for these industries are as follows:

Industry Group
Historic
Average Annual
Growth Rate
2009-2019
Projected Average Annual Growth Rate
2019-2029
Baseline Scenario
(Methodology 1)
Accelerated Scenario
(Methodology 2)
Manufacturing +1.8% -0.5% +1.5%
Wholesale Trade +0.6% -0.2% +0.5%
Transportation/Warehousing +4.3% +0.5% +2.0%
Methodologies 3 and 4 represent alternative approaches to calculating demand that result in comparable conclusions to Methodology 2. Compared to Methodology 1, Methodologies 2-4 represent more aggressive scenarios in which the capacity for industrial development would potentially be enhanced by foreseeable changes in regional land use policy (e.g., surplus retail land could be repurposed for industrial uses), creating a more attractive environment for growth in manufacturing and other sectors requiring industrial buildings. In other words, the practical ability of Vista and other San Diego County communities to realize these more aggressive absorption projections will in part depend on proactive measures to expand the supply of developable sites to respond to projected user needs.

Summary of Office Demand Analysis
Highlights of the Office Demand Analysis and Projections are provided in Tables 5 and 6 below.

TABLE 5. SUMMARY OF OFFICE MARKET CONDITIONS, VISTA AND MARKET AREA Metric Value
Existing (2020) inventory (square feet) by area:
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County

1,800,000
15,500,000
117,600,000
Historic absorption (square feet) by area (2010-2019):
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County

13,000
2,242,000
9,016,000
Current direct vacancy rate by area:
—City of Vista
—Innovate 78 cities
—San Diego County
12/31/19

11.4%

11.2%

8.7%
12/31/20

13.0%

11.6%

10.4%
Sources: Lee & Associates; TNDG.

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22 TABLE 6. PROJECTED DEMAND FOR NEW OFFICE DEVELOPMENT, 2019-2029 Methodology 1: Sector Employment Growth
San Diego County
Demand
(Square Feet)
Vista
Demand
(Square Feet)
Countywide: office demand is projected to grow
in proportion to projected job growth in industry
sectors that use office space

Vista: 3.0% of countywide demand (Vista current
accounts for 1.4% of occupied office space in
county)
5,580,000 167,000
Methodology 2: Total Employment Growth
Countywide: office demand is projected to grow
in proportion to total employment growth

Vista: 3.0% of countywide demand
6,828,000 205,000
Methodology 3: Continuation of Historic
Absorption Rate
Countywide: office demand is projected to
continue at average annual absorption rate (net
change in occupied square feet) between 2010
and 2019)

Vista: 3.0% of countywide demand
10,018,000 301,000
Source: TNDG.

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23 Target Industry/Cluster Analysis
This section provides a summary of the target industry/cluster analysis completed for the VEDS process.

The analysis (considers industry growth/retraction trends in the City of Vista, comparing the local economy’s recent and longer-term performance to regional and national benchmarks.

The study evaluates the City’s economy in terms of industry “clusters.” Clusters are groups of inter- related industry sectors whose growth potentials within a region tend to be closely aligned. The tendency of individual industries to co-locate in clusters reflects linkages through supply-chain relationships, as well as commonalities in terms of workforce requirements and infrastructure needs.

The concept of industry clusters is an effective framework for economic development programming since it reflects a holistic understanding of the regional economic conditions driving the growth or retraction of individual sectors. Nationally, the Cluster Mapping Project used in this analysis recognizes a total of 67 clusters, with 16 classified as “local” clusters and 51 classified as “traded” clusters. In Vista, the local clusters currently represent a total of 27,745 jobs in the City, while the traded clusters account for 16,937 jobs in the City.

Whereas local and traded clusters are both critically important components of a balanced economy, they have distinct roles and characteristics, and these distinctions can be helpful in terms of planning economic development programs. Some of these distinctions are summarized as follows:
• Local clusters typically form the core of a region’s economy; they primarily provide goods and services for the local (resident) population.
• Traded clusters are “export-oriented” in the sense that they include industries that are engaged in producing goods and services for end customers outside the region (in this case, outside of the City).

Existing Important Clusters in Vista and Innovate 78 Corridor Table 7 on the next page lists all traded clusters that had 100 or more jobs in Vista in 2019, and provides the following information about each listed cluster:
• Total number of jobs in Vista in 2019 (the latest full year for which data are available) • Location quotient (compared to U.S. benchmark) in 2019. The location quotient (LQ) measures how concentrated/important an industry cluster is in a region compared to national benchmarks. An LQ value greater than 1.0 indicates that a cluster is more concentrated in the region than it is nationally. This is generally regarded as an indication that the region has a comparative advantage relative to a particular cluster, although (especially for local clusters) an LQ below 1.0 can indicate a potential growth opportunity. • Average annual wage in Vista.
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24 Table 8 provides the same data for local clusters that had more than 1,000 jobs in Vista in 2019. Similar data were compiled in the main report for the Innovate78 Corridor10. Along with the City and the Innovate78 Corridor, this analysis evaluated cluster employment data for the following additional geographies: North San Diego County, San Diego County, and California.

TABLE 7. SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS, VISTA’S LARGEST TRADED CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019)

TRADED CLUSTER JOBS LQ AVG ANN
WAGE
10-YR JOB
CHANGE
Distribution and Electronic Commerce 3,218 1.77 $67,950 158 Information Technology and Analytical Instruments 2,747 6.80 163,705 1,662 Business Services 1,797 0.58 79,952 31
Medical Devices 1,030 11.55 95,039 180
Production Technology and Heavy Machinery 891 3.06 69,217 230 Aerospace Vehicles and Defense 611 3.07 101,675 330
Plastics 611 3.09 58,148 20
Biopharmaceuticals 560 6.14 121,758 75
Food Processing and Manufacturing 540 1.52 45,087 387 Hospitality and Tourism 481 0.42 41,409 56
Communications Equipment and Services 464 5.19 97,595 (1,315) Education and Knowledge Creation 414 0.27 104,690 106 Marketing, Design, and Publishing 379 0.69 77,331 (46) Construction Products and Services 354 1.09 80,509 (61) Recreational and Small Electric Goods 271 4.45 69,954 (38) Furniture 259 2.23 49,387 (30)
Financial Services 247 0.40 104,979 66
Automotive 223 0.71 70,066 94
Apparel 188 4.19 45,140 (128)
Transportation and Logistics 179 0.30 54,312 86
Metalworking Technology 154 1.05 56,354 (72)
Downstream Metal Products 147 1.05 60,846 67
Downstream Chemical Products 141 1.68 93,096 33
Agricultural Inputs and Services 133 1.01 33,741 (36) Lighting and Electrical Equipment 114 1.16 79,208 (62) Upstream Metal Manufacturing 100 0.83 60,745 1
GROUP TOTAL / AVG 16,253 1.29 $90,444 1,794
Note: LQ = Location Quotient; 10-year job change is from 2009 to 2019.

Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).

10 The Innovate78 Corridor is a multi-city partnership made up of the following five cities: Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, San Marcos, and Vista.

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25 TABLE 8. SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS, VISTA’S LARGEST LOCAL CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019)

LOCAL CLUSTER JOBS LQ AVG ANN
WAGE
10-YR JOB
CHANGE
Local Real Estate, Construction, and Development 6,456 1.75 $59,701 1,978 Local Health Services 3,642 0.64 54,682 202
Local Hospitality Establishments 3,188 0.79 22,710 831 Local Education and Training 3,036 1.16 53,046 64
Local Community and Civic Organizations 1,655 0.94 24,041 658 Local Food and Beverage Processing & Distribution 1,620 1.18 33,298 57 Local Commercial Services 1,558 0.54 52,404 134
Local Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise 1,417 1.02 30,439 (157) Local Motor Vehicle Products and Services 1,276 0.92 44,755 114 Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) 1,173 0.95 34,869 282 Local Household Goods and Services 1,078 1.76 41,299 67 GROUP TOTAL / AVG 26,099 0.98 $45,177 4,230
Note: LQ = Location Quotient; 10-year job change is from 2009 to 2019.

Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).

“Candidate” Clusters for Vista’s Target Industry Program Table 9 on the following page provides a list of 15 “candidate” clusters for the City of Vista’s industry targeting program (i.e., business retention, expansion and attraction). The candidate clusters were identified by the consultant team early the VEDS planning process and are based on two strategic approaches to industry targeting:

1. Build on Vista’s existing core strengths. In some cases (e.g., Distribution and Electronic Commerce), the core clusters represent strong continuing growth opportunities that could be the focus of business expansion/attraction efforts. In other cases (e.g., Aerospace Vehicles and Defense), the existing core clusters are currently recognized nationally as non-growth or declining industries (in these cases, the City’s industry targeting efforts would appropriately focus on retention/repositioning).

2. Tap into dominant regional clusters that are not currently well represented in Vista. This strategic approach would seek to leverage Vista’s competitive strengths to capture increasing shares of projected Innovate78 Corridor’s and North County’s employment growth. This component of the City’s business attraction/marketing program would focus on the Vista’s unique “selling points” relative to the larger North San Diego economy (including the city’s strategic location near several San Diego area submarkets, a resident workforce that includes large numbers of commuters potentially eager to work closer to home, and the established presence of various manufacturing-related industries). In developing the list of candidates for the “tap into dominant Innovate78 Corridor clusters” strategy, the consultant has focused on clusters meeting the following criteria:
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26 a. Traded clusters (local clusters are addressed in the other strategic approach)11; b. Clusters with a high specialization of employment in the San Diego metropolitan area (identified as a “strong” cluster by the U.S. Cluster Mapping project); c. Clusters primarily oriented towards private business investment (in contrast to clusters that are substantially composed of public sector / nonprofit employment).

T
ABLE 9. LIST OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS FOR VISTA’S INDUSTRY PROGRAM

STRATEGIC APPROACH LOCAL-SERVING
CLUSTERS "TRADED" CLUSTERS
Build on (or facilitate
repositioning of) Vista's
existing core strengths
• Local Real Estate,
Construction, & Development
• Local Food & Beverage
Processing & Distribution
• Local Education and Training
• Local Industrial Products &
Services

• Medical Devices
• IT & Analytical Instruments
• Biopharmaceuticals
• Plastics
• Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
• Production Technology & Heavy
Machinery
• Distribution and Electronic
Commerce

Tap into dominant Innovate78,
North County, County industry
clusters that are not currently
well represented in the city
• Hospitality and Tourism
• Education and Knowledge Creation
• Business Services
• Marketing, Design, and Publishing
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).

Based on input from the VEDS Committee, the list of 15 candidate clusters was narrowed to eight “priority clusters” (see page 29, Chapter 5) that are recommended as the initial focus of the City’s target industry program.

11 Traded clusters are typically the primary focus of economic development strategies, due to their greater potential (compared to local-serving industries) to inject new dollars into the local economy and to create higher - paying employment opportunities.

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27 5. VEDS Action Plan
Overview of Action Plan
The VEDS Action Plan is designed to achieve the following major goals:

● Expand economic opportunities for Vista’s resident workforce by fostering creation of a diverse range of quality jobs accessible to residents across the spectrum of education/skill levels ● Revitalize Vista’s commercial and industrial areas by encouraging private investment that responds to anticipated real estate market demand
● Strengthen the City’s fiscal position by attracting land uses and business types that have the potential to generate General Fund revenue

● Education/workforce development systems
● Entrepreneurial development resources
● The City’s reputation for business/development friendliness ● Land, zoning and infrastructure capacity
● Placemaking activities that leverage Vista’s unique locational advantages and sense of community
● Overall image and quality of life
Prioritization of City Resources
The VEDS is intended to provide a “roadmap” to guide activities and programs of the City’s Economic Development Department over the next five years (FY 2021-2022 through FY 2026-2027). Consistent with the expected availability of resources, the Action Plan assumes that the City’s economic development staff
12 will remain constant over 5-year implementation period of this plan. As such, the Action Plan is intended to assist the City in aligning its program priorities to match the market opportunities identified during this planning effort. Whereas the Action Plan covers an ambitious range of economic development activities, the expectation of implementing the recommended strategies without increasing City staff reflects the following factors:

● Many of the proposed strategies involve activities that the City is already undertaking to some extent, so they are not all new commitments;
● New activities/programs would be phased-in over several years; and

12 Current full-time equivalent staff of 2.3 City employees.

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28 ● Consistent with existing practices, most of the strategies would be carried out in collaboration with various non-City partner organizations (many of which have participated in the development of this plan).

Recommended Business Retention/Expansion/Attraction Targets Implementation of the VEDS Action Plan will position the City to be competitive for a targeted business development program including the following elements:
● Retention of existing firms/industries that are in a “repositioning” 13 mode due to national/
statewide market and regulatory conditions;
● Expansion of existing firms in strong growth sectors; ● Attraction of new firms based on Vista’s competitive advantages within the San Diego/southern California regions; and
● Entrepreneurial development, with a focus on technology-oriented firms aligned with the region’s core industries.

As described in Chapter 4, the VEDS target industry analysis identified a total of 15 industry clusters14 that are of potential interest to Vista. Among the 15 clusters of interest, eight are recommended as priority targets for this Action Plan:

1. Biopharmaceuticals (leveraging one of North County’s “signature” industries)

2. Medical devices (also leverages regional strength in life sciences)

3. Information technology (software development)

4. Aerospace vehicles and defense

5. Distribution and electronic commerce (responds to ongoing global changes in the retail industry, which have been hastened by pandemic; also potentially a sales tax generator)

6. Education and knowledge creation (target reuse of National University site)

7. Food and beverage processing (building on success of Vista’s breweries)

8. Entertainment/arts-oriented businesses (potential anchor for continued downtown revitalization; also leverages region’s huge hospitality/tourism industry) In order to efficiently concentrate available marketing resources on the most promising target industries, the VEDS will include an initial focus on the eight priority clusters. The remaining seven clusters would potentially be added as secondary priorities later in the implementation period (i.e., Year 3 or later).

13 In addition to business retention, “repositioning” could also potentially be relevant to a focus on reshoring U.S. manufacturing – a strategy that is currently receiving significant discussion in the economic development profession in light of the pandemic.
14 Industry “clusters” are closely aligned groups of industry sectors representing supply- chain relationships. The “Medical Devices” cluster, for example, includes not only the actual manufacturing of medical devices but also related industries that provide inputs to the manufacturing process and support the sales and distribution of finished products.

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29 The table on the following page lists Vista’s potential target industries (with high-priority targets highlighted in yellow). The table also identifies the likely areas of programmatic focus (i.e., retention, expansion, attraction, and/or entrepreneurial development) most relevant to each industry cluster. 04/03/2025
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30 RECOMMENDED TARGET INDUSTRIES
(INITIAL PRIORITIES INDICATED IN YELLOW)
Focus of economic development activity
Potential Industry/Cluster Targets Retention/
Repositioning Expansion Attraction Entrepreneurial
development
Amenity
investment

Core strengths. Build on Vista’s existing core strengths in “traded” (dollar-importing) clusters. Candidates would include:
● Medical Devices
● IT (Software)
● IT (Hardware) & Analytical Instruments
● Biopharmaceuticals
● Plastics15
● Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
● Production Technology & Heavy Machinery
● Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Regional clusters. Tap into dominant regional industry clusters that are not currently well represented in Vista, such as:
● Hospitality and Tourism
● Education/Knowledge Creation (and support businesses) ● Business Services
● Marketing, Design and Publishing

“Home grown” industries. Foster home grown industries based on Vista’s unique community character. Examples would include:
● Businesses tied to “Community of Makers” theme
● Food and beverage processing (building on brewery
success)

● Entertainment/arts-oriented businesses

15 Plastics manufacturing is generally expected to be a low-growth/declining industry in California due to high operational (e.g., electricity) costs in the state.

However, it is a strong existing cluster in Vista and the surrounding Innovate 78 corridor (during the past 10 years, the Innovate 78 corridor gained 119 jobs in the Plastics cluster while California as a whole experienced a net loss of more than 700 jobs). As such it would appear to be an important focus for business retention efforts by the City.

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31 VEDS Strategies

The VEDS Action Plan is organized around 12 major strategies which are outlined below and detailed on the following pages.

Industry Targeting: Business Development / Job Creation

1. Focus City’s business retention/expansion/attraction efforts around high-priority industry clusters

2. Collaborate with regional partners to expand availability of entrepreneurial development resources in Vista

3. Enhance targeted economic development marketing program, consistent with City’s broader (existing) branding initiatives

Umbrella Programs: Creating an Environment for Economic Progress

4. Enhance City’s interface with education/workforce development partners

5. Elevate City’s excellent reputation for business/development friendliness via a branded program (e.g., “Vista Works”)

6. Leverage the City’s in-house resources for economic development through strategic partnerships, interdepartmental collaboration, and community involvement. (e.g. having the Chamber lead coordination of a workforce development initiative)

Land Use / Placemaking Programs: Physical Changes to Accommodate Quality Growth

7. Position Downtown Vista as a regional arts/entertainment center

9. Coordinate with ownership of Vista Business Park properties and associations to ensure long-term vibrancy of this critical business district

10. Identify other commercial corridors/districts warranting long-term reinvestment and/or repositioning

11. Conduct comprehensive evaluation of City’s zoning and related land use policies, to ensure capacity for anticipated development demand

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32 12. Align City’s Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) with VEDS based on a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure needs in high-priority development areas

Implementation Timeframes
Each VEDS Strategy includes a list of specific Action Steps, which are intended to be implemented over the next 5 years (starting July 1, 2021). The recommended implementation timeframe for each action item is provided on the tables below, based on the following color coding:

Red = Year 1 (FY 2021-2022)
Green = Year 2 (FY 2022-2023)
Purple = Year 3 or later (FY 2023-2024 through FY 2025-2027)

STRATEGY 1: Focus City’s business retention/expansion/attraction efforts around high-priority industry clusters
Priority Level:

High
Brief Description of Program
Within Vista’s relatively limited remaining
land/development capacity and existing vacant
buildings, City will focus its business development
efforts on market-feasible industries/clusters (see
recommended list in preceding section of the
VEDS) with the highest potential to:
● Create/retain high-paying jobs
● Increase tax base
● Contribute to sense of place
City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City will take a lead, in-house role in
implementing a Vista-specific target industry
program. The program will also involve some
coordination with (and support from) regional
partners.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Identify a “short list” of 6-8 industry clusters for the City’s initial targeting efforts (the consultant’s recommendations – based on the industry cluster analysis and the priority levels suggested by the VEDS Committee – are page 29 of the VEDS)
B. Compile database of existing Vista firms relevant to each targeted cluster C. Define outreach strategy for maintaining ongoing communication with key existing firms in retention/expansion clusters; outreach tactics could include a mix of industry meetings/mixers, online surveys, site visits, and direct mail
D. Evaluate becoming a Film Friendly City (possibly with a focus on specialized market segments such as international shoots, video gaming, and social media) and consider leveraging filming activity to support development of related industries/activities (e.g., music production studios) E. Conduct needs assessment (via outreach in Step C) of firms receptive to business retention/ expansion assistance and develop customized responses (packaging of City and non-City resources) to address specific needs of assisted firms
F. Consider forming an ad hoc committee or industry-led taskforce to guide implementation of Film Friendly City concept
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33 STRATEGY 1: Focus City’s business retention/expansion/attraction efforts around high-priority industry clusters
Priority Level:

High
H. Customize entrepreneurial development resources (see Strategy 2 below) to maximize startup potentials in targeted industry clusters
I. Customize workforce development resources (see Strategy 4 below) to ensure competitive pipeline of workers to meeting staffing needs of targeted industry clusters Partnership Resources
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● San Diego North Economic Development
Council (EDC)

● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● San Diego Regional Economic Development
Corporation (EDC)
● San Diego Workforce Partnership
Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Professional “lead generation” services (e.g., Whittaker Associates) ● Business retention/expansion software (e.g., Synchronist) ● Business screening/lead identification database (e.g., Gazelle.AI)

Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● BRE outreach program designed

● Outreach to 50 existing Vista firms

STRATEGY 2: Collaborate with regional partners to expand availability of entrepreneurial development resources in Vista
Priority Level:

High
Brief Description of Program
Building on the “Community of Makers” theme,
the City will launch an across-the-board effort
(via multiple VEDS strategies) to attract and
foster startups (with a particular focus on
entrepreneurial opportunities in the VEDS target
industry clusters).

In addition to resources oriented to start-ups, this
strategy could also address the need for “nuts
and bolts” business training (e.g., financial
literacy) applicable to both new and existing
firms.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City will mostly serve in a coordination/
clearinghouse capacity, drawing on the
established programs of regional partners. More
directly (through other VEDS strategies), the City
will focus on creating an innovative business
environment attractive to prospective
entrepreneurs.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Conduct meetings with regional partners listed below to unveil VEDS target industry cluster program and identify targeted industries likely to offer significant entrepreneurial development opportunities
B. Update webpage summarizing City’s entrepreneurial development opportunities/resources C. Support and build upon Innovate78’s efforts
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Priority Level:

High
development resources (this analysis will consider specific needs of demographic groups/ communities/neighborhoods that may currently be underrepresented in terms of access to business assistance resources)
E. If needed organize a local annual “startup network” workshop featuring presentations from partner organizations and providing networking opportunities for prospective startups F. Implement other VEDS strategies supportive of a culture of innovation and entrepreneurism, especially:
o Economic development marketing program (Strategy 3)
o Workforce development interface (Strategy 4)
o Business/development friendliness program (Strategy 5) o Downtown arts/entertainment initiative (Strategy 7)
o Vista Business Park coordination (Strategy 9)
G. (Longer-term) investigate options for key partner organizations establishing field offices in Vista Partnership Resources
● Open Source Maker Labs (Vista)
● North County Biotech incubator (Vista)
● Innovate78 / Startup78
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● Cal State University San Marcos
● San Diego Ventures Group / Cool Companies
● Chairmen’s Roundtable (CRT)

● Small Business Development Center (SBDC)
● San Diego Startup Month
● San Diego North EDC
● Tech Coast Angels (San Diego)
● Azure – Lab Space on Demand
● San Diego Regional EDC
● Local banks
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Initial meetings with all key partners

● Webpage update

STRATEGY 3: Implement targeted economic development marketing program, consistent with City’s broader (existing) branding initiatives Priority Level:

High
Brief Description of Program
Within the envelope of Vista’s existing brand, the
City will launch an economic development-
specific marketing program with the following
objectives:
● Exposure to targeted industry clusters
within region (to improve Vista’s
competitive positioning)
● Lead generation for business attraction
● Raising public awareness of City’s
business assistance resources
● Elevating City’s “business friendly” status
● Promoting Vista’s downtown as a
regional destination
City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City will take a lead, in-house role in
implementing the economic development-
specific marketing program. Initial program
design would likely require support from a
professional marketing agency. Vista will also
leverage its City-level marketing investment
through participation in regional marketing
initiatives.
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35 STRATEGY 3: Implement targeted economic development marketing program, consistent with City’s broader (existing) branding initiatives Priority Level:

High
● Positioning Vista as an attractive place for
tech/professional workers to live
(The above elements could be phased-in over
several years)
Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Facilitate an ad hoc committee process to define themes (e.g., “A Community of Makers”), objectives, targets and community “selling points” for marketing initiative B. Update City’s economic development webpages to reflect new marketing targets identified in VEDS
C. Coordinate with partners to ensure that VEDS marketing targets (and associated “selling points”) are optimally positioned within regional marketing initiatives (including partner websites, etc.) D. Evaluate the value of marketing Vista as a Film Friendly City (potentially focusing on specialized market segments such as international shoots, video gaming, and social media) E. Investigate options for professional marketing services to support design/implementation of new marketing program
F. Investigate longer-term potentials for initiating a film festival in Vista (building on key assets such as Avo Theater, Moonlight Amphitheatre, Creekwalk Park, etc.) Partnership Resources
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● San Diego North EDC
● San Diego Regional EDC
● Antique Gas & Steam Engine Museum (link to
“Community of Makers” theme)
● T he Film Hub

● Innovate78
● Vista Village Business Association
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● Sand N’ Straw community farm (link to
agriculture and “Community of Makers”
theme)
Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Professional marketing agency (with economic development expertise) Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Ad Hoc committee meetings as needed
● Start communication of message

● Webpage updates
● Partner interface

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36 STRATEGY 4: Enhance City’s interface with education/workforce development partners
Priority Level:

High
Brief Description of Program
The City will systematically interface with
education and workforce development partners
to support the following outcomes:
● Elevate performance/image of Vista’s
public K-12 schools relative to
neighboring cities
● Improve information flow between
employers and educators/trainers
regarding needed skills for targeted
industry clusters
● Improve Vista’s positioning in regional
“talent attraction” initiatives
● Increase awareness of Vista residents
about available training/job placement
services
City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
Whereas core educational/workforce
development services will continue to be
delivered primarily by partner organizations, the
intent of this strategy is to more strongly support
these partners in a coordination/clearinghouse
capacity. This coordination role would involve
streamlining and clarifying regional/partner
resources to maximize their value to Vista’s
business community.

P
otentially this is a role that the Vista Chamber
of Commerce could lead.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Actively engage with San Diego Workforce Partnership to ensure that:
o City has complete/most recent information about Partnership programs; this will maximize likelihood of Vista businesses accessing resources; it also provides a lead generation opportunity for the Partnership
o City is fully linked to Partnership’s initiatives
B. Actively engage Vista Unified School District in the City’s economic development process and constructively support VUSD’s progress through the following types of activities:
o Coordination with local employers to establish high school internship opportunities o Promoting VUSD “success stories” as part of City’s marketing efforts o Identifying specific ways the City/community can support improved school performance o Identify continued opportunities to link adult education programs to City’s economic development efforts
o More direct interface between VUSD and the San Diego Workforce Partnership (this interface will be enhanced by the VUSD Superintendent’s forthcoming appointment to the Workforce Development Board)
o Investigate potential for mentorship programs focused on highlighting career pathways for high school students
C. Establish and facilitate periodic meetings of a “Vista Workforce Excellence” taskforce (including representatives of the partner organizations listed below); this action item could potentially be an outgrowth of the Chamber of Commerce’s workforce/education committee, and would serve the following major purposes:
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37 STRATEGY 4: Enhance City’s interface with education/workforce development partners
Priority Level:

High
o Ensuring equal access to workforce development programs by all Vista residents and identifying needs for expanded outreach to underserved communities/neighborhoods o Consideration of other issues related to diversity and inclusiveness of workforce development programs
D. Conduct employer survey (potentially as part of business retention/expansion outreach in Strategy 1) to get direct input from employers regarding high-demand occupations and skill sets E. Convene periodic focus group meetings with human resources managers representing key employers in Vista
F. In tandem with partners, establish other ongoing mechanisms to improve connection between employers and education/training resources
G. Collaborate with San Diego Workforce Partnership to establish a career center in Vista (note:

Partnership is currently planning to open a career center in VUSD offices) H. (Longer-term) investigate options for providing career resources at the Gloria McClellan Senior Center)
Partnership Resources
● San Diego Workforce Partnership
● Vista Unified School District (VUSD)
● Palomar College
● MiraCosta College
● Vista Adult School

● Cal State University San Marcos
● San Diego North EDC
● Trade schools / labor unions
● Vista Chamber of Commerce (potential lead)
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Coordination meeting with San Diego Workforce Partnership and VUSD

STRATEGY 5: Elevate City’s excellent reputation for business/development friendliness via a branded program (e.g., “Vista Works”) Priority Level:

Highest
Brief Description of Program
The city will build on existing marketing efforts
such as Vista is Open (and other strategies
including some mentioned in this document) to
extend initiatives such as this to branded
messaging that addresses both the city’s efforts
to expedite and clarify development approval
processes, business permitting, and the like and
initiatives that demonstrate the city’s
commitment to taking proactive measures to
support businesses, generally and in response to
particular disruptions such as Covid 19.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The city will take the lead role as necessary, while
ensuring coordination with other marketing/
branding efforts in the community and, as
appropriate, the region.
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38 STRATEGY 5: Elevate City’s excellent reputation for business/development friendliness via a branded program (e.g., “Vista Works”) Priority Level:

Highest
Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Facilitate an ad hoc committee process to provide input and feedback on how this program can integrate with other marketing efforts, to ensure community “selling points” are consistent and mutually reinforcing (define very specific selling points related to business friendliness) B. Build on City’s pandemic-response programs to institutionalize economic resilience as a permanent priority
o Define the full scope of resilience efforts generally the city is either undertaking or recognizing implicitly in various plans, policies, etc. and determine how this form of economic resilience can be integrated within them
o In marketing messages, take advantage of testimonials and other confirmation of the success the pandemic-response program has already achieved C. Update City’s economic development webpages to reflect this branding effort and how it reinforces other marketing messages put forth by the city.

D. Coordinate with partners to ensure that the message of Vista’s business friendliness ties into whatever similar messaging is applicable to the region, through their various marketing platforms appropriate
E. Investigate options for professional marketing services, which may include expanding the role of marketing professionals addressing other, related topics, to support design/implementation of this branding effort
Partnership Resources
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● San Diego North EDC
● Innovate78

● Downtown Business Associations
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Professional marketing agency (with economic development expertise) Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Facilitate Ad Hoc committee meetings as
needed
● Definition of branding concept’s relationship
with other marketing programs

● Webpage updates, at least at preliminary
level
● Partner interface
● Start communication of message

STRATEGY 6: Leverage the City’s in-house resources for economic development through strategic partnerships, interdepartmental collaboration, and community involvement.

Priority Level:

High
Brief Description of Program
The City’s Economic Development Department
will systematically expand its program capacity by
engaging a range of internal and external
partners, and key community advocates.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
This is an “umbrella” strategy to support the
City’s coordination of other strategies.

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Priority Level:

High
Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. As appropriate, convene ad hoc committees to support progress on specific topics/strategies B. Coordinate with other City departments/initiatives (e.g., Strategic Plan to Address Homelessness) to institutionalize an integrated/holistic approach to economic development C. Systematically engage City’s external partners in VEDS implementation D. Host annual partner appreciation luncheon (inviting all VEDS collaborating partners, City department heads, and representatives of key target industries) to report on City’s economic development progress
E. Separate from the partner event, host annual broker appreciation luncheon (or other appropriate event) focused on strengthening the City’s connections to the North County commercial/industrial real estate brokerage community
Partnership Resources
All partner organizations listed for other strategies
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Designation of ad hoc committees as appropriate

STRATEGY 7: Position Downtown Vista as a
regional arts/entertainment center
Priority Level:

Medium (mainly to allow timing for coordination
with other related downtown strategies)
Brief Description of Program
This strategy will build on a number of assets,
existing and still evolving, related to downtown
including the potential to enhance its
attractiveness and “sense of place” as an
attractor for residents, including the generally
more footloose working population, and tourists,
and ways to enhance its connectivity to adjacent
business corridors. It will also build on other
strategies related to these additional assets, by
focusing on attracting businesses, venues, and
organizations in arts and entertainment.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
City will begin by leading the investigation into
how this strategy can relate to and best be
coordinated with other downtown strategies,
including the potential role of festivals etc., and
as appropriate support research into this issue.

Role may eventually include physical investment
in venues or other improvements.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Facilitate an ad hoc committee process as needed to address the issues in the action steps outlined below
B. Define the business/venue/organizational “universe” for these kinds of activities within Vista and the surrounding region (which will need to be defined). This includes both permanent installations and festivals, etc. that are or could be accommodated in the downtown 04/03/2025
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regional arts/entertainment center
Priority Level:

Medium (mainly to allow timing for coordination
with other related downtown strategies)
C. Assess the market conditions for relevant activities, in terms of competition, local and regional demand, etc.

D. Inventory downtown properties for their potential to accommodate arts/entertainment venues and activities (on a permanent or per-event basis, and including redevelopment/repurposing of existing facilities)
E. Investigate options for retaining professional market research services to address the preceding steps
F. Demonstrate the extent to which the Downtown environment can benefit from current trends including: 1) the apparent need for certain post-pandemic physical adjustments, such as flexible spaces, outdoor areas, etc.), and 2) the shift in shopping focus to outdoor space and outdoor- oriented “malls,” as well as the popularity of “experiences” being connected to retail activity G. Identify and implement policies to streamline creative use of underutilized spaces within the Paseo Santa Fe corridor (e.g., streamline permitting of pop-up art and public art such as murals), consistent with this area’s Specific Plan designation as an arts district Partnership Resources
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● Central Vista Business Improvement District
● San Diego North EDC
● Innovate78

● Downtown business association(s)
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● Local/regional arts organizations
● Discover Vista
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Define the approach to investigations outlined in the above action steps

STRATEGY 8: Facilitate repurposing of high-vacancy retail commercial centers based on potential market demand for other land uses (including industrial, office, residential and mixed-use)
Priority Level:

Highest
Brief Description of Program
Although the real estate market analysis
completed for the VEDS process indicates some
potential demand for new retail/restaurant
tenancies in Vista (which could potentially be
focused in specialty shopping areas such as the
downtown), global trends for the retail industry
suggest that older shopping centers will
increasingly struggle to maintain acceptable
occupancy levels and vibrant tenant mixes. The
City will work proactively with shopping center
owners to define mutually beneficial solutions to
these challenges.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City will take a lead, in-house role in
implementing this strategy. The program will also
involve direct coordination with property owners
and the development community.
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41 STRATEGY 8: Facilitate repurposing of high-vacancy retail commercial centers based on potential market demand for other land uses (including industrial, office, residential and mixed-use)
Priority Level:

Highest
Note: Strategies 9 and 10 focus on revitalization/
reuse of other (non-retail) land uses; Strategy 11
relates to zoning and land use policies that could
facilitate/expedite repurposing of older
properties.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Coordinate with local commercial real estate brokers (who can provide data on vacancies, tenant prospects, etc.) to identify shopping centers that would be prime candidates for repurposing B. Initiate contact with ownership/management of key shopping centers to assess interest in redeveloping properties and to determine means by which City could facilitate/incentivize action on redevelopment
C. Conduct focus group meeting with development community (developers and brokers familiar with the North County market) to identify market demand prospects for various reuse approaches/concepts:
o Mixed-use development in which a portion of existing retail use is retained, and surplus land is devoted to other uses (mostly likely housing and/or office) o Opportunities to fulfill City’s RHNA affordable housing obligations by allowing residential development on shopping center sites
o Opportunities for market-rate housing development (appropriate for a full range of income levels, including “workforce” housing) on shopping center sites o Opportunities to pursue development of Class A office space o Opportunities to pursue development of logistics (or other industrial) space D. Consider implementing moratorium on “marginal” retail center tenants (e.g., churches) until long- term strategy is formulated (this type of policy could potentially be implemented through the City’s conditional use permit [CUP] process)
E. Prepare development prototypes (i.e., drawings/renderings) and pro forma financial analyses to document the potential financial attractiveness (to property owners) of site redevelopment F. Develop information packages to demonstrate the economic/financial advantages (to property owners) of site redevelopment
G. Investigate potential applicability of Federal and State authorized “tools” to increase the feasibility of redevelopment/reinvestment actions (see list of potential tools below) Partnership Resources
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● Shopping center owners

● Development community

Other Potential Implementation Tools
● Community Revitalization and Investment Authorities (State legislation) ● Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (State legislation) ● Federal Opportunity Zones
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Coordination with commercial brokers

• Meetings with shopping center owners
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42 STRATEGY 9: Coordinate with ownership of Vista Business Park facilities to ensure long-term vibrancy of this critical business district Priority Level:

Highest
Brief Description of Program
The city will undertake a comprehensive review
of this 1,600-acre area, which reflects its age as
well as its positive locational attributes and other
appeal. The Vista Business Park Specific Plan has
undergone numerous updates (most recently
approximately one year ago) since its inception in
1993, so current strategic directions must
recognize the relationship between updates and
the original document. The review of the Specific
Plan should include, for example, consideration
of more flexible development standards (e.g.,
parking requirements) in light of current and
anticipated market trends.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The city will coordinate action steps, beginning
with designing a system for interfacing with
facility owners and other stakeholders in the
area, and potentially (eventually) supporting
research contributing to the update of the area’s
Specific Plan.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Investigate the extent to which the Specific Plan updates in combination with the original document reflect current development conditions and challenges/opportunities, and refine strategic direction accordingly
B. Document current market conditions in the Business Park relative to competitive locations in the immediate region (comparability of rent levels, additional investment to improve, repurpose, etc., feedback from stakeholders and other information)
C. Define the marketing position, messages, etc. appropriate to convey both current and anticipated future conditions in the Business Park
D. Based on market research (above) if available, include investigation of the potential for encouraging the image of a “high-amenity” business park through the addition of more restaurants, accommodating pedestrians and other alternative mobility, etc. – all to support a companion strategy of attracting more tech and other targeted firms E. Consider the use of professional market research services to address the preceding steps.

Partnership Resources
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● San Diego North EDC
● Innovate78

● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● Badiee Development (developers of Keystone
Innovation Campus located within the Vista
business Park)
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
● Specific Plan review
● Needs assessment from brokers and property
owners

● Market comparison survey of competitive
properties

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43 STRATEGY 10: Identify other commercial corridors/districts and institutional land uses warranting long-term reinvestment and/or repositioning Priority Level:

Medium
Brief Description of Program
The programs outlined in Strategy 7 (downtown),
Strategy 8 (high-vacancy retail shopping centers),
and Strategy 9 (Vista Business Park) represent the
most immediate priorities for place-specific
action on revitalization of key employment
centers in Vista. Once the City has made initial
headway on implementing these strategies, the
resulting tools and programs can serve as models
for revitalization of other Vista sub-areas and
land uses. The City will take on other place-based
initiatives on an as-needed basis, reflecting
community priorities and aspirations.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City will take a lead, in-house role in
implementing this strategy. The program will also
potentially involve direct coordination with
property owners and the development
community.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Designate ad hoc committee as needed to provide input on VEDS place-specific initiatives and to suggest priorities for additional/future areas of focus; initial suggestions from the VEDS Committee include:
o Golf courses
o Lincoln School property
o Class B/C office buildings
o Commercial corridors that could be positioned as “gateways” to Downtown Vista (e.g., North Santa Fe Avenue, East Vista Way, West Vista Way, and North Melrose Drive) B. Assess status of other place-specific initiatives to determine City’s capacity to pursue improvement programs in other sub-areas
Partnership Resources
● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers
● Shopping center owners
● Golf course operators

● Development community
● Community/neighborhood organizations
● Office building owners
Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Community Revitalization and Investment Authorities (State legislation) ● Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (State legislation) ● Federal Opportunity Zones
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
N/A

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44 STRATEGY 11: Conduct comprehensive evaluation of City’s zoning and related land use policies, to ensure capacity for anticipated development demand Priority Level:

Medium
Brief Description of Program
The city’s review of policies will include
investigation into the potential for creative
zoning revisions that could expedite the
conversion of some older areas into more
productive uses. Potential strategies can include
proactive steps to both change zoning and zoning
language and expedite change requests, and also
consider overlay zones targeting specific areas for
special provisions.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
City will have a lead role in coordinating relevant
research etc. and eventually revising the zoning
ordinance.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. Establish ad hoc committee as needed to coordinate with the city on establishing the best approach to addressing this strategy
B. Consider VEDS land-use related strategies (especially Strategies 8, 9 and 10) in City’s forthcoming General Plan Update process
C. Conduct comprehensive review of existing business-related zoning districts and specific provisions, to assess: 1) current functionality in relation to existing development demands; 2) extent to which current zoning can facilitate upgrading of existing properties, for example to increase the supply of Class A office space; and 3) the potential to design and apply special overlay districts for areas in particular need of revitalization/redevelopment D. Conduct review of City’s existing development processing/entitlement/permitting procedures to identify opportunities for streamlining
E. Coordinate zoning-related strategies with relevant strategies (and any related studies) applied to specific areas, such as downtown and the Vista Business Park, for example F. Investigate options for streamlining the CEQA process for individual development projects (e.g., through the use of program-level environmental documents covering overall planning areas) G. Consider the use of professional planning/environmental services to address the preceding steps Partnership Resources
● Vista Chamber of Commerce
● San Diego North EDC
● Innovate78

● Commercial/industrial real estate brokers

Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Professional planning services
Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
N/A

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45 STRATEGY 12: Align City’s Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) with VEDS based on a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure needs in high-priority development areas
Priority Level:

Medium
Brief Description of Program
The effectiveness and feasibility of some of the
VEDS strategies listed above will be highly
dependent on strategic infrastructure
investments to expand Vista’s capacity for
targeted development. The City’s Economic
Development staff will coordinate closely with
other City departments to ensure that capital
improvement projects critical to economic
development are prioritized in the City’s CIP.

Projects related to parking (particularly in the
downtown area) and enhanced mobility will be
one focus of this program, recognizing that
parking has both a short-term and long-term time
horizon for assessing and implementing
solutions, given the advent of autonomous
vehicles, for example.

The City will also closely track regional
infrastructure investments impacting Vista’s
economic development potentials.

City’s Positioning/Roles in Implementation
The City’s Economic Development Director will
lead coordination with other departments on
identification of VEDS priorities for infrastructure
investment.

Action Steps
(Red = Year 1; Green = Year 2; Purple = Year 3 or later)

A. In conjunction with partner organizations involved in Strategies 1 through 11, develop lists of infrastructure improvements needed to support implementation of VEDS; initial priorities identified by the VEDS Committee and other community stakeholders include:
o Parking in downtown
o Public spaces suitable for outdoor dining/gathering
o Upgrades to Downtown Transit Center (positioning it as a better gateway/connector to the downtown)
o Improved high speed internet service/infrastructure (citywide, with a priority focus on business districts and underserved areas and populations of the community) B. Segment VEDS infrastructure list in terms of responsible party (i.e., City infrastructure versus improvements that fall under jurisdiction of other entities) and priority level C. Coordinate with City’s CIP preparation process to position VEDS-related capital projects in CIP.

D. Coordinate with regional partners to prioritize VEDS-related improvements in regional infrastructure plans
E. Investigate potential options for a “Smart City” plan to ensure Vista’s ongoing competitiveness with respect to digital transformation of infrastructure and expanded utilization of renewal energy sources/technologies
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46 STRATEGY 12: Align City’s Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) with VEDS based on a comprehensive assessment of infrastructure needs in high-priority development areas
Priority Level:

Medium
Partnership Resources
● Development community
● North County Transit District

● SANDAG
Other Potential Implementation Tools/Investments
● Community Revitalization and Investment Authorities (State legislation ● Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (State legislation) Year 1 Milestones/Checklist
N/A

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Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
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47 Appendix A: Existing Programs/Resources Relevant to
the VEDS

Local Business Incentives

1. North County Economic Development Organizations Swim Lanes Document, 2019 This document serves to define the core functions of economic development related organizations along the 78 corridor to enhance collaboration, reduce redundancies and provide clarity to external actors.

2. Vista Economic Recovery Plan, 2020
Discuss potential enhancements to the Vista Economic Recovery Plan.

3. Strategic Plan to Address Homelessness, 2020
A Strategic Plan to address the needs of our community.

4. City of Vista Business Economic Recovery Plan, 2020
A business Economic Recovery plan that contains a set of proposed solutions specifying key elements, and specific program details that are or will be outlined in the materials developed for each activity, for the benefit of the community.

5. Regional Transportation Plan Transit Leap, 2021
Developed in collaboration with regional transit operators North County Transit District and Metropolitan Transit System, the proposed Transit Leap network provides practical transit choices that are viable alternatives to driving for most trips along Complete Corridor highways.

6. EDA Grant Application for COVID Recovery Assistance
Seed funding to establish a ‘Business Resilience Lab’ for the northern San Diego County region.

7. City of Vista Annual Action Plan, 2019-2020
The City of Vista's Annual Action Plan sets forth the housing and community development strategies and objectives for 2019 - 2020.

8. Facade Improvement Program
Program grants businesses in and near the downtown area up to $15,000 to assist with exterior design upgrades.

9. San Diego Science and Technology Grant Program (The San Diego Foundation) Science & Technology grant program supports efforts to create and expand a pipeline connecting young adults to college and career opportunities.

State Business Incentives

10. Employment Training Panel (ETP)
Through a competitive application process ETP will issue contracts for specific training, typically geared towards higher skills or specialized positions.

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48 11. America’s Job Center of California
Works with local businesses offering a variety of services from pre-screening candidates for open positions, to offering interview facilities and support services for job seekers, free of charge.

12. College Access Tax Credit (CATC)
Provides a tax credit to taxpayers and businesses who contribute to Cal Grants, the State of California’s largest source of educational financial aid.

13. California Competes Tax Credit
Helps companies stay and grow in California by reducing their state income tax.

14. California Research and Development Credit
Reduces income or franchise tax.

15. California Capital Access Program (CalCAP)
The program encourages banks and other financial institutions to make loans to small businesses that have difficulty obtaining financing.

16. California Partial Sales Tax Exemption for Construction and Tenant Improvements Qualified purchases made under construction contracts for tenant or infrastructure improvements are also eligible for the same partial sales tax exemption of 3.9375%

17. California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority (CAEATFA) Provides a sales and use tax exclusion (full rate, including local and district taxes) on qualifying property that is used in the design, manufacture, production, or assembly of “advanced transportation technologies or alternative energy source products, components, or systems,” or “clean technology.”

18. California Employment Hiring Credit
Eligible businesses could generate up to $112,000 in tax credits per year from this program by hiring 10 new qualified employees.

19. Recycling Market Development Zone
North County businesses within the North San Diego County Recycling Market Development Zone that can demonstrate that they are recycling paper, plastic, glass and/or organic material are eligible for low-interest loans and technical assistance.

20. E
conomic Development Rate Program
This program gives special utility discounts for businesses that require high-energy loads to operate, or continue operating, in California.

21. Manufacturing and Research & Development Partial Sales and Tax Exemption Manufacturers and certain research and developers may qualify for a partial exemption of sales and use tax on certain manufacturing and research and development equipment purchases and leases.

22. Film and Television Tax Credit Program 2.0
The California Film Commission provides tax credits to qualified productions (TV projects and feature films) that are produced in California.

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49 23. Teleproduction Exemption
The California Department of Tax and Fee Administration offers a partial sales and use tax exemption for the sale, storage, use or other consumption of machinery and equipment, including component parts, used primarily in teleproduction or other postproduction activities.

24. Industrial Development Bonds
Industrial development bonds provide financing for the acquisition, construction, rehabilitation and equipping of manufacturing and processing facilities for private companies.

Federal Business Incentives

25. Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
A Department of Energy tax incentive that provides rebates to businesses when they use alternative energy, including solar.

26. New Markets Tax Credit Program
Incentivizes community development and economic growth through the use of tax credits that attract private investment to distressed communities.

27. Opportunity Zones
Provide investors tax incentives to invest in low-income census tracts by allowing them to defer tax on capital gains and decrease taxes on potential future gains.

28. Work Opportunity Tax Credit
A federal income tax credit incentive provided to private sector employers. An employer may be eligible for WOTC when they hire from certain target groups of job seekers who face employment barriers.

29. Historically Underutilized Business Zone (HUBZone) Program The Historically Underutilized Business Zone (HUBZone) was created to stimulate economic development and employment growth in economically distressed communities by providing Federal contracting preferences to small businesses. Administered by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), these preferences go to HUBZone certified small businesses that employ residents who live in a designated HUBZone as well as maintain its "principal office" in one of the specially designated areas. The City of Vista’s Downtown Opportunity Zone is also designated as an SBA HUBZone.

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VISTA

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (VEDS)
Prepared for:

Ci
ty of Vista, California
February 24, 2021
Work Plan Updated April, 11, 2025
PREPARED BY:

THE NATELSON DALE GROUP,
INC .

YORBA LINDA, CA • www.natelsondale.com
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EXHIBIT 3

Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.

Table of Contents

3. SWOT Assessment..................................................................................................................................... 8

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Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
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1 1. Introduction

This document provides a strategic framework to guide the City of Vista’s economic development policies and programs over the next 5 years. The Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS) is based on a comprehensive research and stakeholder input and outreach processes, and reflects consensus views on the most promising opportunities and the most pressing challenges facing Vista’s economy.

Overview of the Strategic Planning Process
The recommended policies and program activities are based on an extensive planning process that included the following components:

• A review of the City’s previous economic development strategy, and of existing and past economic development policies and programs.
• An analysis of Vista’s existing and projected demographic profile, providing an understanding of underlying trends that may affect economic growth potentials. • Direct input from a cross section of the City’s economic development stakeholders (the VEDS Committee listed below) via individual interviews and a series or workshop-type meetings. • A review of the various public- and private-sector entities involved in different aspects of economic development (or related activities), along with a summary of their existing program offerings.
• An industry “cluster” analysis to identify the industry groups (clusters) that are the most important “engines” of the existing local economy, as well as the industry groups that are likely to offer the most attractive growth potentials in the future. • A real estate market analysis to identify potential future demand for commercial and industrial development in the City.

For both the industry cluster analysis and the real estate demand projections, conclusions were screened through the lens of the current pandemic to identify ways in which immediate and longer-term market opportunities may be altered due to current conditions.

Where relevant, key findings of the background and technical studies are referenced in the VEDS. The full studies are provided as separate reports.

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Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
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2 VEDS Committee

The City of Vista gratefully acknowledges the participation of the following individuals in the preparation of the VEDS.

City of Vista
Judy Ritter, Mayor
Corinna Contreras, Councilmember
Kevin Ham, Economic Development Director
D
elilah Langan, Economic Development Specialist

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Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS)
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3 2. Executive Summary
Action Plan Goals and Scope
The VEDS Action Plan is designed to achieve the following major goals:

• Expand economic opportunities for Vista’s resident workforce • Revitalize Vista’s commercial and industrial areas
• Strengthen the City’s fiscal position

On a practical level, implementation of this framework will be carried out through the 12 specific strategies outlined below.
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4 Vista Economic Development Strategy (VEDS): Overall Framework Interrelationships

Quality-of-life actions:
• Response to
pandemic and policy
carryover
• Targeted-area
enhancement
• Workforce
development
• Entrepreneurial
development
• Business friendliness
External influences:
• Neighboring cities’
strengths, niches, and
limitations
• Regional economic
strengths
• Partnerships in
economic
development, job
training
Assets to leverage,
encourage, and refine:
• Downtown
• Upgradable business
corridors
• Already diverse
economy
• Makers
• Housing affordability
• Working population

Support, attract
industries:

• Define opportunities
in concert with
existing economic
base, surrounding
cities, and region
• Define and guide
physical development
opportunities
City action focus:
• Internal operational
reviews
• Study mobility,
parking, target area
planning, rezoning,
etc.
• Social systems
support (education,
childcare, etc.)
Strategic marketing to
people
Support tenant
recruitment, job growth
Strategic marketing to
businesses
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VEDS Strategies

The VEDS Action Plan is organized around 12 major strategies, shown below organized under the headings of A) Industry Targeting, B) Umbrella Programs, and C) Land Use/Placemaking:

A. I ndustry Targeting: Business Development/Job Creation

1. Focus City’s business retention/expansion/attraction efforts around high-priority industry clusters (see also last section of this Executive Summary)

2. Collaborate with regional partners to expand availability of entrepreneurial development resources in Vista

3. Enhance targeted economic development marketing program, consistent with City’s broader (existing) branding initiatives

B. U mbrella Programs: Creating an Environment for Economic Progress

4. Enhance City’s interface with education/workforce development partners

5. Elevate City’s excellent reputation for business/development friendliness via a branded program (e.g., “Vista Works”)

1 Current full-time equivalent staff of 2.3 City employees.

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