Town of Yountville
Staff Report
6550 Yount Street
Yountville, CA 94599
Agenda Item #: 11A
Yountville Town Council Staff Report
DATE: March 17, 2026
TO: Mayor and Town Council
FROM: Brad Raulston, Town Manager
Matt Kowta, President, BAE Urban Economics
PREPARED BY: Brad Raulston, Town Manager
RECOMMENDATION
The Town staff requests receiving the BAE Urban Economics market research options memo (Attachment 1) and directing staff to conduct additional market research for Yountville Commons.
DISCUSSION/BACKGROUND
At the Town Council study session on February 17, 2026, BAE Urban Economics was introduced to the community and provided a presentation on their memorandum regarding the Commons financial analysis (Attachment 2). In addition, KNN Public Finance provided an update to their previously presented preliminary funding and financing report. Finally, Town Staff and K+M Architecture and Planning presented a status report and updated site plans based on funding and phasing scenarios considered at the study session.
The BAE memo (Attachment 2) presented two options for the distribution of housing unit types across studios, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartment units, including pro-forma financial projections for one option that focused on studios and one-bedroom units and one option that analyzed a mixture of studios, one-bedroom units, and two-bedroom units. The second option was presented based on feedback from employers that stated larger units are in more demand.
The two scenarios illustrate the tension between larger units and financial feasibility, where increasing the proportion of larger units decreases operating revenue per square foot, which ultimately decreases financial feasibility without Federal low-income tax credits or other subsidies. It was reiterated that the target tenant for the Commons is the “missing middle” which typically has a household income below 120% Area Medium Income (AMI). Rent bands were assumed at 60%-80% and the subsidies are provided by local sources such as Measure S that allow flexibility unlike typical Federal and State subsidy programs which have many conditions and constraints.
Comments from the Town Council and the public on February 17, 2026, indicated a range of opinions on the optimal unit mix for Yountville Commons. Ultimately, the unit mix must balance concerns for addressing unmet needs for different types of housing units at varying affordability levels and for designing an economically efficient project. The Council indicated a desire for the project team to conduct additional market research to help refine the unit mix. Subsequent to the Study Session, the Town also received a letter dated February 26, 2026, cosigned by a range of local stakeholders calling for a “data sprint” to precede major decisions on Yountville Commons, to include:
1. Employee Survey
2. Employer Establishment Survey
3. Segmented Worker Focus Groups
4. Commuting-Shed Calibration
5. Pro-Forma Stress Testing
6. Legal/Fair-Housing Review of Targeting and Selection Policies Market Research Already Completed
The BAE memo included in the February 17, 2026, Study Session agenda items (Attachment 2) summarized a range of market data considered to-date in developing options for the Yountville Commons unit mix, including feedback from an employer focus group session and business owner interviews as well as housing supply and occupancy data and household characteristics data from the Town of Yountville Housing Element along with more recent data from the American Community Survey. In addition, in conducting research to support the development of a Town preference policy for residents of Yountville Commons, consultants have collected information on the occupancy/demand for housing units of various types, indicating solid local demand for all unit sizes.
Market Research Options
Considering work already completed and stakeholder and Town Council feedback, BAE has outlined a range of options for completion of additional research that the Town Council may consider, in a memo to the Town Manager dated March 11, 2026 (Attachment 1). Staff is asking for Council direction on the options, which include:
1. Additional 3rd Party Data Collection
2. Employee Focus Group
3. Online Employee Survey
4. In-Person Employee Survey
These options are not mutually exclusive. For example, Additional 3rd Party Data Collection, and Employee Focus Group, and either an Online Employee Survey or an In-Person Employee Survey could be combined to yield useful information that would not be duplicative. An approach such as this would address most of the interest in additional information expressed by stakeholders and Council members at the February 17, 2026, Study Session as well as the interest expressed in the “data sprint” letter.
Additionally, Attachment 1 summarizes several different options for combinations of market research tasks, and BAE’s associated cost estimates; however, the Council is not limited to selecting from these options and may also direct staff and BAE to conduct other research that is not covered by any of the options. Based on Town Council direction, the Town Manager will define task orders and budget allocations for BAE to complete the desired work under the Town’s on-call contract with BAE.
Town staff are recommending an expansion of the professional services agreement with BAE, to provide the budget and scope for BAE to assist with additional research and analysis as may be directed by Town Council, as well as to provide scope and budget for BAE to further support the Yountville Commons project by conducting additional research, analysis, and pro-forma scenario modeling and sensitivity testing as suggested by stakeholders and Council members on February 17, 2026, and reiterated in the “data sprint” letter.
Market Research Considerations
In considering options for additional research to support the refinement of the Yountville Commons project, the Town Council should keep in mind that the focus is currently on a first phase of development at Yountville Commons that can be implemented using local resources. The development program selected for the first phase will not dictate the unit mix for later phases of Yountville Commons; rather, data and experience from the first phase will inform the unit mix for later phases. Thus, if all priorities and needs cannot be addressed in the first phase, this does not preclude addressing these needs in later project phases.
When considering options for additional research, the Council should be mindful that utilizing existing data from published sources, such as the American Community Survey is time and cost effective, but may not provide all the desired details. In contrast, conducting primary research, such as via focus group sessions and surveys can target specific information needs, but it is more time-consuming and expensive. For example, based on BAE’s experience managing in-person employee surveys such as the Napa County Farmworker survey referenced in the “data sprint” letter, the total cost for that type of employee survey alone would likely exceed $200,000, and would also likely require a minimum of six months to plan and execute with a target of a minimum of 300 completed surveys.
As noted in the “data sprint” letter, when conducting primary research, it is important that the data collection be done in an unbiased manner. When collecting sensitive personal information, respondents much be confident that their information will be kept anonymous. Survey response data will be most useful if the respondents are representative of the target group, requiring substantial outreach to ensure a balanced sample. The outreach and survey instrument must be culturally sensitive, and survey may need to be conducted in other languages in addition to English. Survey results will be more accurate as the survey sample size increases, but this increases time and cost. Even with an optimally designed and executed survey, it is important to realize that survey responses can express opinions and feelings but they do not necessarily predict real world behavior; thus, survey results should be balanced with findings from other research including observed market conditions such as those documented in the Housing Element and in more recent ACS data cited in Attachment 2 and consultant research for the preference policy, that represent real-world behavior. The Yountville Commons project team is mindful of all these factors in continuing to develop and refine the project concept.
Requested Approach for Yountville Commons
Town staff request that the Council balance the desire for more information with recognition that market success of Yountville Commons is not as sensitive to market conditions as would be the case with a larger project, considering that the primary focus at this time is on a relatively small first phase of approximately 40 housing units. The overall Yountville Commons design is flexible to allow development to occur in an incremental, phased manner, with a design that allows flexibility on a building-by-building basis to change the mix of unit types within each building. This contrasts with traditional multifamily building approaches that lack phase-ability and lock in specific floorplans and unit-mixes from the outset. Such larger projects require more up-front understanding of the depth of demand for the entire project, due to the lack of flexibility to adjust the development program as the project builds out and the need to capture a more substantial portion of overall demand to fill a larger number of housing units.
The Town Council should seek to leverage the knowledge and experience of existing housing projects within the area, such as those operated by Burbank Housing and others, to help inform the Yountville Commons design, along with any additional primary data collection that the Council desires. In addition to considering the results of additional market research, the Town Council should also consider financial feasibility considerations, and policy goals to make an informed decision on a reasonable unit mix for the first phase of housing at Yountville Commons. Then, the Town can use operating experience with the first phase, combined with ongoing monitoring of market conditions to inform design of subsequent phases.
In a separate agenda item, the Town Manager is requesting Council authorization to increase BAE’s on-call contract budget maximum, to provide contract capacity for the additional market research as well as additional tasks for BAE to support the continued planning and implementation for Yountville Commons, including but not limited to tasks suggested in the “data sprint” letter that are not addressed in the market research options discussed herein, such as pro-forma modeling and other research and analysis to explore the financial feasibility of alternative development programs, phasing approaches, and development strategies for Yountville Commons; providing support for analysis and development of a household preference program for Yountville Commons; assisting with preparation of staff reports, and participating in public meetings; participating in meetings and coordinating with Town staff and other project team members as necessary to support the Yountville Commons project; and conducting other research and analysis as may be necessary to support the Yountville Commons project, as directed by the Town Manager.
ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW
Exempt per California Environmental Act (CEQA) Guideline, Section 15061(b)(3).
FISCAL IMPACT
Is there a Fiscal Impact? Yes
Is it Currently Budgeted? No
Where is it Budgeted? N/A
Is it Mandatory or Discretionary? Discretionary
Is there a Staff Resource Impact? Yes
ATTACHMENTS
1. BAE Market Research Options Memo 03-11-2026
2. BAE Yountville Commons Financial Analysis Memo 02-17-2026