Camarillo City Council
November 8, 2023

Q.

Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
Recommendation
:

1. Find

the

Triennial

Review

of

the

Referral

for

NUWI

Camarillo,

LLC

is

exempt

from
review

under

the

California

Environmental

Quality

Act

(CEQA)

pursuant

to

CEQA
Guideline 15061(b)(3).

2. Staff

recommends

that

the

City

Council

conduct

the

Triennial

Review

and

provide
direction

to

staff

on

any

actions

it

deems

proper

regarding

the

General

Plan
Referral request of NUWI Camarillo, LLC.

Camarillo City Council

AGENDA REPORT
Date: October 25, 2023
To: Honorable Mayor and City Councilmembers
From: Greg Ramirez, City Manager
Submitted by: David Moe, Assistant Community Development Director Subject: Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC

BACKGROUND
On September 27, 2017, the City Council was presented with a Referral application, submitted by NUWI Camarillo, LLC and after reviewing the request, the Council ordered further processing of the Referral application.

In accordance with City Council Policy Number 7.01 (General Plan Amendments, Non- City Initiated), every three years after the date on which a Referral application was ordered to staff for study, the City Council will take action to either continue to study the Referral or rescind the Referral. The Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC is now up for its second triennial review.

DISCUSSION
The Referral for NUWI, Camarillo, LLC contemplates an amendment to the General Plan Land Use Element designation from the current Quasi-Public designation to Low-Medium Density Residential (10 dwelling units per acre maximum), on approximately 31 acres located over a portion of the existing Camarillo Springs Golf Course. The remaining 151 acres of the golf course property would remain as Quasi-Public for golf course use. The Camarillo Springs golf course property is generally located south of Ridgeview Street and Adohr Lane, east and west of Camarillo Springs Road.

Existing land uses surrounding the golf course include the Camarillo Springs Mobile Home park homes, and Camarillo Springs single family detached homes and townhomes, with Ridge View Street along the northern border of the golf course. To the west of the southerly portion of the existing golf course is Conejo Creek and the Camarillo Sanitary District Wastewater treatment plant, with hillsides located to the east.

As part of the initial application Referral, the Council required the preparation of various studies, as follows:

Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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A. Fiscal Impact Analysis: A fiscal impact analysis study is to be performed pursuant to Section A.4 of Policy 7.01 by a consultant selected by the City and paid for by the applicant, which must include the following:
a. A land plan and comparative analysis must be conducted on the various sizes of the golf course formats, (9-, 12-, and 18-hole configurations); b. Pro-forma for the installation and ongoing annual operation and maintenance for the various sizes of golf course formats (9-, 12-, and 18- hole configurations). This is to include, but not be limited to, the following:
a. Providing identification of the parties responsible for the ongoing annual operation and maintenance of the improvements that would be constructed as part of the project, including the golf course and clubhouse;
b. A financial analysis detailing the sources and uses of funds necessary to operate and maintain the new amenities;
c. Analysis of capital costs for installation and ongoing annual operation and maintenance costs associated with the installation of improvements as part of the proposed project, including but not limited to the dog park, water features, and pedestrian walking trails.

B. Analysis of Impact to Property Values: Analysis on the impact to the property values of existing established properties within the Camarillo Springs community, from the project (i.e., how will a new development with 18, 12, or 9 holes of golf, a new clubhouse, dog park, etc., impact the value of existing properties in the Camarillo Springs area?).

C. Hydrology Study and Hydraulic Study: A detailed hydrology and hydraulic study is also required to analyze conformance with FEMA flood plain requirements and to address localized storm water flow with the proposed development.

D. Compliance with California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA): An Initial Study will need to be conducted to determine the potential environmental impacts and the appropriate environmental document to be prepared.

The applicant has submitted applications for Tentative Tract Map (TT-6016) to subdivide the property for the development of up to 248 new age-restricted (55+) residential housing units and Residential Planned Development (RPD-204) permit for the development of 248 age-restricted (55+) single family detached dwelling units. The development proposes a private recreation center and open spaces that include two pocket parks and walking trail connectivity to the surrounding community.

Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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Development of the residential area would require the temporary closure and reconfiguration of the golf course. The applicant is requesting to reconfigure the golf course into 12 holes instead of the current 18-hole layout under Special Use Permit Modification (SUP-6M(3)). Other improvements proposed for the golf course include a renovated and enhanced clubhouse facility and additional open spaces including a new neighborhood park, trails, a dog park, and event spaces, all of which would be open and available for public use.

NUWI has submitted and paid the filing fees for the following applications:
•General Plan Amendment (GPA 2017-2) on December 28, 2017 •Tentative Tract Map (TT-6016) on October 31, 2018
•Change of Zone (CZ-327) on December 18, 2018
•Residential Planned Development (RPD-204) on September 5, 2019 •Modification to Special Use Permit (SUP-6M(3)) on September 5, 2019 On September 23, 2020, a triennial review was held and the City Council voted to allow the referral to remain in place and for staff to continue processing the Referral (voted 3- 2, Craven and Kildee dissenting).

Jonathan Frankel, representing NUWI submitted a letter, dated October 12, 2023 (attachment 5), to provide an update on the Referral.

Environmental Review
The City entered into a Professional Services Agreement with Cadence Environmental Consultants to prepare an Environmental Impact Report (EIR).

A Notice of Preparation of a Draft EIR was released for a 30-day public review period from July 15, 2019 to August 14, 2019. At the conclusion of the comment period, the City received 18 comment letters, including six from public agencies. Additionally, a Draft EIR scoping meeting for the proposed project was conducted on July 23, 2019 in the City of Camarillo City Hall Council Chambers.

A Draft EIR was released for a 45-day public comment period beginning on September 21, 2020 and ending on November 5, 2020. By the end of the public review period, the City of Camarillo had received 79 letters and emails commenting on the Draft EIR. The City also granted the request for one federal agency and two state agencies to submit comments following the end of the public comment period. Two letters from a local archaeology society and one letter from the Chair of the Barbarino/Venturino Band of Mission Indians were also submitted to the City following the end of the public comment period. Several of the comments raised concerns related to drainage and flooding. The comments and responses to comments are attached to the Preliminary Final EIR (reference material 3).

Subsequent to the public review period of the Draft EIR, the City initiated a 3rd party review by Kasraie Consulting, a hydrology and drainage expert, of the project Master Drainage Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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Plan and Floodplain Analysis as part of its effort to address comments that were submitted on the original Draft EIR.

The 3rd party review indicated serious concerns with the proposed Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis submitted by NUWI. Of the concerns noted in the review of the initial hydrology for the project, was the magnitude of the incoming 100-year peak flow at Camarillo Springs Road that was nearly doubled from 1,151 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 2,250 cfs, with an 18% increase in the 100-year flood hydrograph volume. In response to this issue and other issues, NUWI decided to submit a new Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis Report, dated April 21, 2022 and revised Tentative Tract Map, dated August 17, 2022.

Kasraie Consulting submitted their final observations of the proposed revised conceptual drainage system design to the City in a letter, dated October 14, 2022 (attachment 4), which identified several issues, which have not been resolved, despite the redesign, as follows:

Hydrology
•The impervious value for subarea WS35 of the modeling analysis was not revised in the current Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis.

Unobstructed Emergency Spillway
•An unobstructed emergency spillway and flow path were not provided consistent with City requirements.
•A redundant 48” Reinforced Concrete Pipe (RCP) lake outlet pipe and weir structure are proposed in addition to the single 48” RCP operating lake outlet pipe.

Preventing backflow from Conejo Creek through the lake outlet is dependent on a mechanical system, such as the proposed mechanical Tideflex Duckbill Check Valves (TDCV) on the outlets of both 48-inch RCP pipes and the additional manual gate valve on each 48-inch RCP. An operations and maintenance plan is necessary for the proposed mechanical system.

Separation Floodwall-Levee Embankment
•The embankment or floodwall between the West Basin and the lake is proposed to separate the upstream Camarillo Springs Creek flows and the local flows adjacent to the lake. A full design of the embankment or floodwall, including soils or geotechnical engineering analysis, was not provided in the current Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis. The project applicant has indicated that this information will be provided at the time of final design. Therefore, the separation of flows cannot be verified by the City at this time.

Additional Information or Data
•A breach analysis was not provided in the current Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis for the embankment between the lake and the West Basin.

The project applicant has indicated that they will consult with a geotechnical engineer to ensure the separation floodwall and levee embankment will be Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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designed to prevent breaching. Therefore, breach resistance of the embankment cannot be verified by the City at this time.

In summary, staff concludes that the proposed drainage plan does not meet the City’s requirements of an unobstructed emergency overflow spillway, which are required to guarantee that the proposed development would not increase flooding hazards. Meeting the City’s requirements is not possible by this project with the proposed fill embankment and drainage design concept. Emergency overflow spillways are typically designed to convey the unreduced incoming 100-year flood peak flows without the use of mechanical backflow prevention devices. Instead of providing an unobstructed emergency spillway as prescribed above, the project is proposed to provide a series of pipes and mechanical devices and the proposed drainage pipes and culverts would require implementation of a maintenance plan to ensure their proper operation to prevent flooding in perpetuity. There can be no guaranteed assurance of the proper implementation of the maintenance plan into perpetuity and, therefore, no guarantee of compliance with CMC Chapter 16.34 – Flood Damage Protection.

This, combined with the significant historical events in Camarillo Springs including brush fires, intense rain storms and destructive mud and debris flows, may result in potential significant flooding risks to the existing homes and the proposed development.

Revised Draft EIR Circulation
Pursuant to Section 15088.5 of the State CEQA Guidelines, a lead agency is required to recirculate an EIR when significant new information is added to the EIR after public notice is given of the availability of the Draft EIR for public review but before certification. The revised Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis, and revised Tentative Tract Map for the project represented significant new information that the public has not had the opportunity to review and comment upon. Therefore, those sections of the Draft EIR were recirculated.

Due to the issues identified during the City’s 3rd party review of the Master Drainage Plan and Floodplain Analysis for the project, the Revised Draft EIR concluded that the impact of the project on flooding onsite or offsite would be significant and unavoidable.

As with the original Draft EIR, the Revised Draft EIR was circulated for a 45-day public review period from June 24, 2023 to August 8, 2023. The Notice of Availability of the Revised Draft EIR identified significant and unavoidable impacts with respect to Hydrology and Water Quality.

The Notice of Availability of the Revised Draft EIR provided that during the 45-day review period, written comments on the content of the Revised Draft EIR may be submitted to the City. Pursuant to procedures set forth in Section 15088.5(f)(2) of the State CEQA Guidelines, reviewers were directed to limit their comments to the revised chapters or portions of the Revised Draft EIR and that reviewers were not required to resubmit comments on the original Draft EIR that were not revised.

By the end of the public review period, the City of Camarillo had received 173 letters, emails, and online form submittals commenting on the Revised Draft EIR. One email from Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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a local resident was received by the City on August 9, 2023. The comments and responses to comments are attached to the Preliminary Final EIR (reference material 3).

Economic Studies
Following the referral and filing of GPA 2017-2, the City entered into a Professional Services Agreement with The Natelson Dale Group (TNDG) to prepare the economic studies required as part of the referral. A copy of the economic studies is attached to this report (attachment 3) and a brief summary and conclusion is provided below.

Analysis of Property Value Impacts Report
The report evaluates the impacts that the reconfiguration of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course into the proposed 12-hole configuration would potentially have on the values of adjacent and neighboring residential properties. Based on the analysis detailed in the report, it is TNDG’s conclusion that the proposed project is not likely to result in significant negative property value impacts within the Camarillo Springs Golf Course community.

However, from a longer-term perspective, value appreciation could lag the overall city in later years, if proposed improvements are not realized or are considerably delayed.

Financial Sustainability of Community Facilities Maintenance Report The report evaluates the degree to which anticipated revenue sources would be sufficient to ensure that community facilities within the project would be maintained at acceptable levels in perpetuity. This includes improvements directly related to the reconfigured golf course and other community facilities (not specifically tied to the golf course), which would be funded by the Homeowners Association (HOA).

The report indicates maintenance costs estimated and submitted by the project applicant appear to be reasonable however, the adequacy of the proposed maintenance budget is subject to caveats based on limitations in the data provided by the applicant.

Business Analysis of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course Report National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. (NGF) evaluated the operational and economic performance of the existing 18-hole Camarillo Springs Golf Course (CSGC) and the potential impact of proposed changes to this facility. The report shows that some form of renovation is needed to enable the golf course and an influx of at least $6.8 million would be needed to correct ongoing systemic problems.

General Plan Impacts
The General Plan is a long-range comprehensive policy document and in accordance with Policy 7.01, all proposed amendments should be evaluated with consideration for environmental impact and consistency with the balance of the current General Plan. Staff provides the following observations for the Council’s consideration as it relates to the Referral request.

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As stated in the Introduction of the Camarillo General Plan on Page 1.1, “Planning is the continuous process of guiding land development in accordance with established policy and towards predetermined goals and objectives. It represents a conscious effort to shape the physical environment for the welfare of those who live and work in the community.”
The Introduction continues to describe the General Plan as a comprehensive document, covering all aspects of the physical environment and a framework to direct the growth of the city.

Land Use Element
The Land Use Element of the General Plan identifies the classifications of land within the city and establishes the basic pattern for future development for the City of Camarillo. It serves to guide the future growth and physical development of the community.

The Land Use Element describes the various land use categories in the city and regarding recreation land uses, it states on Page 4.23, “Adequate recreational facilities and space to satisfy a community-wide need should be considered and include a diverse recreational program for both passive and active recreation.”

form of parks, agricultural lands, hillside areas, golf courses and waterways.” The current designation of the 31-acre site is currently Quasi-Public and is developed with an 18-hole golf course. The proposal to change the designation to Low-Medium Density Residential (10 dwelling units per acre maximum) would mean that 31 acres of quasi- public property with a golf course would be eliminated and converted into residential development.

Open Space and Conservation Element
The Open Space and Conservation Element expresses the importance of open space in the community. Page 9.2 references Section 65562 of the Government Code that describes open space land as a limited and valuable resource which must be conserved wherever possible. Page 9.4 acknowledges that parks, parkways, reservoirs, playgrounds, and golf courses make up part of the open space within the city.

A change in the land use on 31 acres of the golf course to Low-Medium Density Residential (10 dwelling units per acre maximum) could make way for up to 310 residential units to be developed under this density and the removal of 31 acres of golf course open space. The amount of open space per resident within city limits will decline because not only would 31 acres of golf course open space be removed but additional residents will be added.

Open space is an important component of any well-planned community and is reflected in its General Plan. The State recently affirmed that importance in SB 1425. SB 1425 was Triennial Review of Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC
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approved in 2022 and added Section 65565.5 to the Government Code, requiring every city and county to review and update its local open space plan by January 1, 2026. The update shall include plans and an action program, that addresses a number of items, including climate resilience and other co-benefits of open space, correlated with the safety element and rewilding opportunities, correlated with the land use element. Rewilding opportunities includes opportunities to preserve, enhance, and expand an integrated network of open space to support beneficial uses, such as habitat, recreation, natural resources, historic and tribal resources, water management, and aesthetics.

With respect to tribal resources, the Draft EIR indicates the vicinity of the proposed site remains highly sensitive for Native American resources such as the flakes that were previously discovered at the site. Unanticipated discoveries are possible during construction-related ground disturbance. A number of mitigation measures are recommended in the Draft EIR to ensure that the proposed project does not result in significant impacts to previously undiscovered (unanticipated discoveries) archaeological and tribal cultural resources. It is noted that the City received a comment letter on the Draft EIR dated January 21, 2021 from Julie Tumamait-Stenslie, on behalf of the Barbareño/Ventureño Band of Mission Indians expressing their opposition and their desire for the golf course to remain as is.

A change to the General Plan to remove open space and replace with residential uses may have a negative impact on the welfare of the community given all of the important benefits open space provides.

Recreation Element

on the easterly side of the City of Camarillo is an 18-hole public golf course with clubhouse, pro shop and restaurant. This facility provides a significant amount of open space and should be continued as a satisfying part of the regional needs for recreation.”

meet the recreational needs of the city. It recommends that for each 1,000 persons, a total of 2.5 acres of neighborhood parks and 2.5 acres of community parks should be required for a combined total of 5 acres of parkland per 1,000 residents.

Currently, the ratio is approximately 3.75 acres of parkland per 1,000 residents. (256 acres of parkland operated by the Pleasant Valley Recreation and Park District (PVRPD) and 4 acres operated by the City for 69,309 residents). As the City is already deficient in the amount of parkland, a loss of golf course open space may have a further negative impact on the welfare of the community.

The City received comment letters on the Draft EIR and Revised Draft EIR from the Pleasant Valley Recreation and Park District (dated September 23, 2020 and August 1, 2023) expressing a number of concerns, including the loss of open space.

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Housing Element
After nearly two years of study, public outreach, numerous Planning Commission and City Council meetings as well as significant interactions and review by the California Department of Housing and Community (HCD) the City of Camarillo 2021-2029 Housing Element was certified by the HCD on April 14, 2023.

A critical part of the Housing Element approval process requires that a local jurisdiction accommodate a share of the region’s projected housing needs for the planning period called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) and for jurisdictions to demonstrate it has sufficient land to accommodate the RHNA. The City was allocated a RHNA of 1,376 units divided amongst five income categories. As required by State law, the Housing Element contains an inventory of land suitable for residential development, which shows that the City’s land inventory exceeds Camarillo’s 2021-2029 RHNA for all income levels.

The proposed site, which would require the General Plan amendment to permit residential housing, consisting of 31 acres of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course was never considered or identified in the adopted Housing Element as one of the sites for residential development nor is it needed as part of the land inventory to accommodate the RHNA.

Community Design Element
Much of what forms the visual image of Camarillo comes from what is seen from Highway 101. The City’s Community Design Element contains Objective SC-1.1, which states, “Enhance existing view corridors along scenic corridors. Maintain the visual quality and scenic views along designated corridors.”
Highway 101 is identified as one of the four routes in the city recognized in the Community Design Element for their contributions towards Camarillo’s high quality of life and are intended to highlight, promote and preserve the community’s scenic and environmental characteristics and help reflect the community’s character.

Currently, views of the golf course can be seen when travelling on Highway 101. A change in the land use designation to allow for residential development would alter views if the 31-acre portion of the golf course was developed into residential units.

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the community serve as important visual, recreational and cultural amenities. These facilities should continue to be operated and maintained with a goal of maximizing available resources while providing the highest quality visual and landscape elements.” It should be noted that existing mobile homes surrounding the golf course currently benefit from views of the golf course. A change in the land use designation to allow for residential development on a 31-acre portion of the golf course would substantially affect their current views.

Safety Element
The City is currently in the process of updating the Safety Element, as it is required to be revised upon the next update to the Housing Element to address specific wildfire hazard planning requirements for all jurisdictions with lands in the Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones (VHFHSZ).

Government Code 51175-89 directs the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) to map areas of very high fire hazard within Local Responsibility Areas (LRA). Mapping of the VHFHSZ is based on relevant factors such as fuels, terrain, and weather. The entire Camarillo Springs area, including the project site is within a VHFHSZ. The VHFHSZ within the city are the responsibility of the Ventura County Fire Protection District.

As of July 1, 2021, all development within the VHFHSZ must comply with the State Minimum Fire Safe Regulations, which provide standards for emergency access, private water supply reserves for emergency fire use, vegetation modification, building setbacks, and fuel breaks. The requirements of the State Minimum Fire Safe Regulations are implemented at the local level through the Ventura County Fire Code. Key standards of the Ventura County Fire Code include that all vegetation within 100 feet of buildings is subject to defensible space laws and regulations.

A change in land use on a portion of the golf course to allow for residential development, should consider whether to avoid placement of such uses in areas subject to high or extreme wildfire threats that could place future development at risk.

In conclusion, the City Council has wide discretion in making the legislative decision of whether a proposed change to the land use map of the General Plan is appropriate and desirable for the City or is not in the best interest of the overall welfare of the community and may consider the impacts that have been outlined in this report in considering the Triennial Review Referral.

FISCAL IMPACT
There is no budget impact as a result of this action.

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CEQA DETERMINATION
City staff has determined, in accordance with Section 15061(b)(3) of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines, that the Triennial Review of the Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC is not subject to CEQA review because the Referral only allows for further study of an amendment to the General Plan and is not a project under CEQA, as it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility the Referral has the potential to either (1) cause a direct physical change in the environment or (2) cause a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.

RECOMMENDATION

1. Find the Triennial Review of the Referral for NUWI Camarillo, LLC is exempt from review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) pursuant to CEQA Guideline 15061(b)(3).

2. Staff recommends that the City Council conduct the Triennial Review and provide direction to staff on any actions it deems proper regarding the General Plan Referral request of NUWI Camarillo, LLC.

ATTACHMENTS

1. City Council Policy Number 7.01 (General Plan Amendments, Non-City Initiated)

2. Location Map

3. Referral Application

4. Economic Studies

5. Kasraie Consulting Camarillo Springs NUWI Hydrology Review Comments, dated October 14, 2022

6. Status update letter dated October 12, 2023
REFERENCE MATERIALS – AVAILABLE FOR REVIEW AT CITY HALL AND ON CITY WEBSITE AT www.cityofcamarillo.org/pendingprojects

1. Draft EIR

2. Revised Draft EIR

3. Preliminary Final EIR

City of Camarillo

CITY COUNCIL POLICY

Section: Community Development Date Adopted: October 1976 Last Amended: March 10, 2021

Subject: General Plan Amendments (Non-City Initiated)

Number: 7.01 Page 1 of 3

PURPOSE
To provide guidelines for cons idering proposed amendments to th e Camarillo General Plan by an applicant other than the City.

POLICY
The General Plan is a long-range comprehensive policy document that is periodically updated to meet new conditions, and revised or amplified to res pond to unforeseen changes or community needs.

A. Amendment Guidelines

1. The General Plan is subject to amendments when there are cha nges in goals, policies, and physical, social or economic conditions. All proposed amendments should be evaluated with consideration for environme ntal impact and consistency with the balance of the General Plan document.

2. Due to the restriction in Section 65358(b) of the State Gove rnment Code that no single mandatory element of a General Plan will be amended more frequently than four times during a calendar year, it is necess ary that the City establish the criteria and timing for consideration of Gen eral Plan amendments.

3. The guidelines set forth her ein have been established to aid in the review of requests presented to the City. Fulfillment of the general criteria for amendment consideration does not, however, assure or even imply the ultimate approval or disapproval of a General Plan amendment by the City Council. That is, decisions on the contents of the General Plan are by law based solely on the best judgment and discretion of the City Council, made after due process and deliberation.

4. The City Council will determine at the time of referral of a General Plan amendment or a specific plan w hether a fiscal impact analysis will be required in conjunction with the proposal.

Adopted 7.1: 10/76 Policy 7.01
Amended: 01/14/98 Page 2 of 3
Amended 7.01: 01/12/05; 03/25/15; 08/22/18, 03/10/21
B. Review Criteria
In reviewing an application, the Planning Commission and City C ouncil will consider the following:

1. Consideration of an element not currently included in the General Plan.

2. A change in General Plan goals or policy, or in physical, social or economic conditions as stated in the General Plan.

3. A substantial change in envir onmental characteristics affecting the property and its uses which creates an in consistency with other currentl y existing uses.

4. Physical constraints or changes that render the designated l and usage in the General Plan no longer feasible or preferable.

5. A response to changes in development and land use patterns w ithin adjoining areas.

C. Initial Review Process for General Plan Amendment Referrals

1. Complete applications for G eneral Plan Amendment Referrals m ust be submitted to the Community Development Director on or before November

30. The application will be presented to the City Council for i nitial consideration at the first meet ing in April of the following ye ar. The City Council, at its discretion, may order further processing or may terminate application proceedings at this point.

2. Upon review of the General Pl an Amendment request by the Pla nning Commission at a public hearing, the application and Planning Co mmission recommendation will be forwarded to the City Council for consideration.

3. The City Clerk will schedule the application for City Counci l consideration at the first reasonably availabl e Council meeting. The City Cou ncil will render a decision by resolution following conclusion of a publi c hearing. If the City Council substantially modi fies the application conside red by the Planning Commission, a decision will be rendered by the Council following further consideration by the Commission and subsequent report t o the Council. The City Council’s decision will be final.

D. Annual Review: On or before t he first meeting in April, staff will present a report to the City Council on the status of each General Plan Amendment Referral.

E. Triennial Review and Decision Whether to Rescind: Every thre e years after the date on which a General Plan Am endment Referral application was referred to staff for study, staff will present to City Council an Agenda Item that reports on the status of the Referral and presents a suggested action to either continue to study the Referral or rescind the Referral.

Adopted 7.1: 10/76 Policy 7.01
Amended: 01/14/98 Page 3 of 3
Amended 7.01: 01/12/05; 03/25/15; 08/22/18, 03/10/21
F. The City Council will not be precluded from considering or acting upon a General Plan Amendment Referral application or Council-approved Referral at such times as it deems necessary or appropriate.

1. Property owners who seek City Council consideration of a new General Plan Amendment Referral application or modification of a Council-approved Referral at times other than the first City Council meeting in April must submit a written request to the City Manager citing the extraor dinary circumstances as to why the application should be considered by t h e Council outside of the process in Section C1. The written reque st must be presented with material and information explaining the property owner’s development concept and justificat ion as to why a change in the General Plan Land Use designation is timely and desirable. The City Man ager will place the request on a future City Council Agenda without analy sis for the City Council’s consideration.
a. If the City Council approves the request to submit a General Plan Amendment Referral application or a request to modify a Council - approved Referral, the property o wner may submit a completed General Plan Amendment Referral application to the Director of Community Development, and an Agenda Item for City Council’s consideration of the application will be placed on a future City Council Agenda.
b. If the City Council denies the request to submit a General P lan Amendment Referral application or a request to modify a Council - approved Referral, the property o wner may submit a General Plan Amendment Referral application by the annual application deadli ne of November 30 in accordance with Section C of this Policy.

2. Other than at the Triennial Rev iew, a Councilmember may requ est consideration of rescission of a previously approved General Pl an Amendment Referral. However, no Councilmember who voted against the previously approved General Plan Amendment Referral may request that the Referral be reviewed by the City Council for consideration of rescission.

Such request for rescission must be made in writing to the City Manager with appropriate back-up material. The City Manager will place the request on a future City Council Agend a without analysis for the City C ouncil’s consideration.
a. If the request is approved, an Agenda Item to consider the r escission of the General Plan Amendment Ref erral will be placed on a futu re City Council Agenda for the City Council’s consideration. b. If the request is denied, t he Councilmember making the request may not make another request for rescission of that previously appr oved General Plan Amendment Referral until the Triennial Review.

Project Location
NUWI Camarillo
LLC Referral

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL PROPERTY VALUE IMPACTS
FROM

PROPOSED RECONFIGURATION OF

CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE

Prepared for:

City of Camarillo, California

February 2021
Updated August 2023

Prepared by:

THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC .

YORBA LINDA, CA • www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597

Contents

Introduction to Report Series and 2023 Update .......................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary (Study Conclusions) ...................................................................................................... 4 Data Analysis of Comparison Golf Courses ................................................................................................... 9 Appendix A: Methodology and Technical Documentation ......................................................................... 39

1 Introduction to Report Series and 2023 Update
This report, prepared in its original version in 2019 and subsequently updated in 2021, and now with this current summarized update, focuses on evaluating the impacts that the proposed reconfiguration of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course (CSGC) would potentially have on the values of adjacent/neighboring residential properties. The original analysis and subsequent updates have been prepared by The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) in conjunction with NGF Consulting (the analytical branch of the National Golf Foundation). Whereas TNDG’s analysis is specifically focused on potential property value impacts, NGF prepared (as a separate companion report
1) a detailed business/financial evaluation of
existing conditions, addressing several aspects of the “business case” for CSGC, including:
• Revenue and expense performance for CSCG before, during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. • Analysis of the public-access golf market in Ventura County to help define CSGC’s current and recommended future market positioning after modifications. • Projected CSGR operations under revised configurations of the golf course as described below.

With this 2023 update, TNDG focused on capturing property value trends subsequent to the prior full update of this report in 2021.

Existing Conditions and Description of Proposed Project As fully documented in the NGF report, CSGR is an aging golf facility that includes a regulation-length 18- hole golf course, a driving range and modest clubhouse. It was once a popular golf destination for the Ventura County area, hosting a large volume of rounds activity and numerous important golf events and tournaments. However, in recent years, declines in rounds and revenue have led to reductions in maintenance activities leading to poor overall playing conditions. This, coupled with the poor natural drainage characteristics of the property, has led to an unsustainable golf facility condition (both golf course and clubhouse) that must be improved if the facility is to remain viable as a golf course business.

The NGF review describes a golf course facility in generally poor maintenance condition that has been operated with outdated infrastructure, sub-standard equipment and a wholly inadequate clubhouse.

CSGC ownership is proposing a significant change to the facility that is intended to alter its basic golf offering while simultaneously enhancing the quality and condition of all amenities. The key changes proposed for CSGC include a reduction from 18 regulation golf holes to 12 regulation golf holes, plus clubhouse enhancement and upgrades to all facility infrastructure (irrigation, drainage, plumbing, electrical, maintenance facilities, equipment, etc.) that will address deficiencies noted earlier. The modified facility will include the following major elements:
• The golf course will be modified with a re-design from 18 to 12 holes, with all new holes to be located on what is currently holes #1-11 and #18. The remaining property (what is now holes #12-17) will be redeveloped with residential units and other open space and park uses, with the intent of generating needed capital to support new investment in the golf property.

1 See “Business Analysis of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course in Camarillo, CA,” NGF Consulting, November 2019, and the subsequent updates of March 2021 and July 2023. 2 • The new golf course design will include 12 regulation-length golf holes with three par-5’s, three par-3’s and six par-4’s. With this layout, the course can be played as 3, 6, 9, 12 or 18 holes, all returning near the clubhouse. If played as 18 holes (12-hole course + additional 6 holes), then the course will be a regulation par-72 with four par-5’s, four par-3’s and 10 par 4’s.

Project Alternatives Evaluated
For purposes of the CEQA process for the Proposed Project, this report considers four alternative scenarios for the CSGC property:

1. Reduction to a 12-hole regulation2 course (the “Proposed Project”);

2. Reduction to a 9-hole regulation course;

3. Reduction to an “executive” 18-hole course;

4. A scenario under which the existing golf course would close and revert over time to other permitted land uses.

Whereas Scenarios 1 through 3 (including the Proposed Project) would represent alternative concepts for aligning the existing outmoded golf course with contemporary market trends, Scenario 4 reflects the likelihood that – in the absence of needed reinvestment – CSGC is financially unsustainable (according to the NGF report) and could no longer remain in operation as a golf business.

Approach to the Property Valuation Analysis
Based on available home sales data, TNDG’s prior versions of this study evaluated changes over time in the residential property values (sale prices) for the CSGC community and five “comparison” golf communities. From these comparisons, TNDG derived conclusions regarding the potential impacts of the Proposed Project (and project alternatives) on residential property values in the vicinity of CSCG.

The five original comparison courses were systematically selected to capture the full range of potential outcomes represented by the various scenarios considered for CSGC. In particular, two categories of comparison communities were identified:

1. The initial focus of the analysis was to identify golf course communities that had experienced conditions relatively similar to what is foreseeable for CSGC under the Proposed Project (or project alternatives). That is, a significant change in operations (i.e., a closure or downsizing of the course) had occurred, and some more-or-less satisfactory resolution of that action had also occurred, in subsequent years. Among this group, one comparison course was selected specifically because it has transitioned to non-golf land uses (similar to Scenario 4 considered for CSGC). The comparison courses in this group are the following, which also have the most detailed updated data (2021-2023):

2 The concept of “regulation-length” in golf simply means a mix of par-4, par-5 and par-3 holes, each at their corresponding regulation length. In golf, shorter versions of golf courses are commonly referred to as “executive” (only par-3 and par-4 holes under 5,000 yards). These shorter versions are considered less desirable due to the smaller number of golf shot types that can be played. The Proposed Project for CSGC calls for a 12-hole golf course that includes par-3, par-4 and par-5 holes, and would thus qualify as a regulation course. 3 a. Escondido County Club (closed in 2013 and the property has been repositioned for residential development, with current project by Lennar Homes, Canopy Grove, in progress);
b. Moreno Valley Ranch Golf Club (closed in August 2015, reopened in August 2020, downsized from 27 holes to 18 holes, with plans for an apartment project and DiscGolf and FootGolf plus other recreational improvements on part of the abandoned 9 holes); and
c. Rancho Mirage Golf Country Club (closed in June 2015 and has yet to be redeveloped with a boutique hotel and a reopened golf course as planned, meanwhile former golf property is in “park” status).

2. In addition, given that the Proposed Project involves reconfiguration of CSCG to 12 holes, the selected set of comparisons for earlier versions of this report also specifically included two 12- hole golf courses (which are a rare and relatively new phenomenon in the United States). The 12-hole comparison courses included in the study are:
a. Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes in Nipomo, CA (developed to complement an existing 18-hole course within the same community); and b. Hawks Landing in Yucca Valley, CA (downsized from an 18-hole course).

To identify prospective comparable golf course communities, TNDG had access to extensive databases from the National Golf Foundation, identifying recently closed golf courses in Southern California and recently opened courses in California, Arizona, and Nevada. These projects were screened for relevance to this analysis.

4 Executive Summary (Study Conclusions)
Types of Property Value Benefits Associated with Golf Course Proximity In discussing the potential property value impacts associated with the proposed downsizing of CSGC, it is important to recognize that proximity to a golf course can enhance residential property values in two distinct ways: 1) some homebuyers specifically place a premium on having direct access to golf as a recreational activity; and 2) other homebuyers (i.e. non-golfers) value golf course proximity not so much as a recreational opportunity but as an attractive open space amenity

3. In evaluating the potential
impacts to CSGC home values due to the proposed reconfiguration of the course, TNDG has considered how the Proposed Project would potentially affect each of these two major value-enhancement factors.

Conclusions Regarding Potential Property Value Impacts to CSGC Community Proposed Project. Based on the analysis detailed in this report, it is TNDG’s conclusion that the Proposed Project is not likely to result in significant negative property value impacts within the CSGC community.

However, from a longer-term perspective, value appreciation could lag the overall city in later years, if proposed improvements are not realized or are considerably delayed. These conclusions are based on the following findings:

1. Historically (prior to 2015), if we compare single-family home values in the CSGC community to Camarillo as a whole, the CSGC value measurably exceeded those of the city.4 The historic CSGC price enhancement was most significant for homes immediately adjacent to the golf course, with sales prices for these homes exceeding citywide values by 2% to 8% (depending on the year evaluated). For CSGC homes not adjacent to the golf course the historic price enhancement was less significant (1% to 8%, depending on the year).

2. In 2015 when CSGC was purchased by the current owners and again in 2016 (which CSGC residents were notified by the ownership of potential closure of the course), the average home sales price in the CSGC community measurably declined, both in absolute dollar terms and relative to citywide trends. That is, citywide prices continued to increase in 2015 and 2016, while CSGC-area prices declined to price per square foot levels below the citywide average

5. 3. In September 2017, when CSGC ownership submitted an application for a General Plan amendment and began a dialogue with the community about revitalization of the golf course, average home sales prices began to significantly increase. By 2020, however, values for properties not adjacent to the course had declined, and adjacent properties had leveled-off to

3 Available data suggest that the open space value may outweigh the value associated with direct access to golf; CSGC management estimated at one point that fewer than 5% of the approximately 500 households in the CSGC community include regular CSGC golfers (i.e., seasonal pass holders). 4 The data for CSGC subsequently displayed in this document include single -family, condo and townhome home sales in order to increase the number of cases to apply to the analysis, and so the differentials described here (among single-family values only) differ.
5 It should be noted that given the relatively small size of the CSGC community, very few sales transactions (especially for golf course-adjacent homes) occur on an annual basis. Therefore, some caution needs to be exercised in drawing conclusions for individual years. This caveat especially applies to the data for the 2023 update of the study, since a general slowdown in the housing market has resulted in few home sales to be included in the data set for the analysis.
5 match the overall city figures (although the golf course property prices would exceed those of the city if we restrict the comparison to single-family homes only).

4. Among the three comparison golf courses that experienced a closure, the most significant findings are that:

a. Any closure-related impacts to adjacent property values can be temporary (short run), but may also persist in the longer run, especially if redevelopment/re-opening conditions are not forthcoming. For example, at Rancho Mirage uncertainty over the resolution of the closure situation, including continued delays6 up to the present time, is likely to have contributed to price fluctuations over the years that, overall, reflect a lagging value increase, compared to the host city, for properties adjacent to the golf course. Similarly, the course at Moreno Valley was not reopened until 2020 and redevelopment of some of the property is currently under construction (and prices at both of these golf communities could still show a rebound in values as improvements take place and adjacent residential properties change hands subsequently); and b. Subsequent recovery of property values appears to be closely aligned with productive reuse of the property. Significantly, the Escondido example indicates that recovery of property values based on productive reuse can occur even if the new land use is something other than golf. Indeed, in Escondido’s case, it appears that merely resolving the uncertainty about the status of the closed course (i.e., announcement of definitive plans for residential development) resulted in strong property value increases even prior to the actual redevelopment.

For the 12-hole courses analyzed, the data show that the price changes at the golf courses – from “before” conditions prior to the course being built or modified, to low-price “troughs” in home values (generally in the 2009-2012 range, and these price contractions are at least due in part to the aftermath of the Great Recession as well as possibly other conditions), and then to price increases in subsequent years – roughly follow the same pattern as those of the host communities. At Monarch Dunes, overall community prices fell to the “trough” point by a higher percentage than the golf course properties, and the recovery to recent-year price levels was therefore higher for the community than for golf course properties. At Hawks Landing, the percentage changes are quite similar for the golf course and community. The changes are generally positive in terms of price changes over time and recovery from low points, recent data suggest that prices are approaching pre-Recession levels, and golf properties have increased at a higher rate than their respective communities overall from 2021-2023. Relative to the two categories of property value benefits outlined above (recreational value to golfers and open space amenity to non-golfers), TNDG believes that the Proposed Project is likely to affect CSGC-area property owners in the following ways:
• As a recreational opportunity to golfers, the proposed design of the 12-hole course (such that it could be played as regulation 18-hole course) is likely to mitigate the potential loss of value. Any perceived loss of value due to the reduction to 12 holes is also likely to be offset by the overall

6 The proposed renovation and redevelopment of the Rancho Mirage golf course has not taken place yet, although the golf course is open and operational. The delay in redevelopment is most likely due to the pandemic. 6 improvement of the facilities and associated golfing experience (compared to the existing sub- standard and aging facilities).

• As an open space amenity, the reinvestment in CSGC and the overall improvement of maintenance conditions is likely to increase the perceived amenity value for most homeowners.

A possible exception to this finding would relate to those residential properties immediately adjacent to the portion of the golf course that would be redeveloped with residential uses.

These homes would lose their direct golf course frontage/views. However, the Escondido example suggests that residential development on former golf course land can result in value benefits to adjacent properties that are comparable to golf course adjacency. Given the project applicant’s intent to develop attractive/high-value residential units, TNDG believes that it is unlikely the value of CSGC-area properties would be negatively impacted. This conclusion is in part based on the anticipated long-term strength of the overall Camarillo housing market.

Project Alternatives. TNDG’s conclusions regarding the project alternatives are briefly summarized as follows:
• Scenario 2 (9-hole regulation course). In terms of recreational value to golfers, the 9-hole alternative would likely be somewhat inferior to the Proposed Project, and would be less profitable as a business proposition, according to NGF. While this alternative could conceivably be designed to allow for 18-hole play, the reduction from 12 holes to 9 holes would reduce the potential configuration options and thereby tend to make the course relatively less attractive than the proposed project. The conclusions with respect to impacts to the course’s value as an open space amenity would likely be similar to those described for the proposed project (assuming a similar golf course footprint and similar residential uses on the redeveloped portion of the course). Overall, TNDG does not believe this alternative would have significant negative impacts on CSGC-area property values.
• S
cenario 3 (18 -hole executive course). Although this would be an 18-hole course, it would in some respects be inferior to the Proposed Project since it could not be played as a regulation, par-72 course. The conclusions with respect to impacts to the course’s value as an open space amenity would likely be similar to those described for the proposed project (assuming a similar golf course footprint and similar residential uses on the redeveloped portion of the course).

Overall, TNDG does not believe this alternative would have significant negative impacts on CSGC-area property values.
• S
cenario 4 (golf course closes and reverts to other permitted land us es. Based on the NGF market and financial analysis of existing CSGC operations, TNDG believes that – in the absence of the owner’s opportunity to reinvest in the course through partial development of the site with more profitable land uses – continued operation of the course is likely to become financially infeasible over time. Assuming that under such a scenario the golf course would ultimately close, the impacts to property values would depend on the subsequent disposition of the property. For purposes of this analysis, it has been assumed that the property would be put into productive use and not allowed to become a source of urban decay (i.e., neglected landscape, blighted structures, fenced property, etc.). The closed golf courses profiled in this report clearly demonstrate that closure of a golf course (or even the announcement of a 7 pending closure) can have significant negative impacts on property values in the short term.

However, the Escondido example indicates the productive reuse of such property (even with non-golf land uses) can fully mitigate these impacts in the longer term.

The above conclusions are based on TNDG’s evaluation of property value trends for golf courses that represent comparable situations to the CSGC proposed project and alternative scenarios. The data supporting the analysis are detailed in the subsequent chapters of this report. Table ES-1 on the next page summarizes the relationship between development milestones in the golf communities and property value effects.

8 TABLE ES-1. CHANGES IN PROPERTY VALUES OVER TIME PERIOD, 2015-2022 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2022
Camarillo Springs Golf Course Community
GC pur-
chased by
new owner
Residents
informed of
impending
closure
GC Owner submits
GP Amendment for
redev.

COVID
Pandemic Post-Pandemic
Home values for both
types decline until 2017.

Home values for adjacent lots increase from 2017 to
2018, and then decrease until 2020. Home values for non- adjacent lots increased from 2017 until 2022.

Home values for
both types
decline after
2022.

Escondido Country Club Golf Course

GC Owner
submits GP
Amendment
for redev.

CC approves GP
Amendment –
HOA files lawsuit
Lawsuit settled,
and GC proceeds
to be redev. w/
infill residential
COVID Pandemic Post-Pandemic
Home values for adjacent lots continued to increase from 2015-2021, but had a slight decline from 2021-2022. Home values for non-adjacent lots declined from 2015-2016, but increased in value from 2016-2022.

Home values for
both types
increase after
2022.

Moreno Valley Resort Golf Club Community
Course
closed
COVID
Pandemic;
Course reopens
Post-Pandemic
Home values for both
types held values from
2015-2016.

Home values for both types increased from 2017-2019.

While non-adjacent lots continued to increase until 2022, adjacent lots had a decline from 2019-2020, but increased from 2020-2022.

Home values for
both types
decline after
2022.

Rancho Mirage Golf Country Club Community (GCCC)
Course
closed
Litigation between
HOA and new golf
course Owner/
Developer
Owner/Developer
establishes DA
with City and HOA
is in agreement
COVID
Pandemic; Dev.

Plans stalled
Post-Pandemic
Home
values for
both types
decline
from 2015-
2016.

Home values for adjacent lots
increase from 2016-2018, and
then decline from 2018-2019.

Home values for non-adjacent
lots increase from 2016-2017
followed by a decrease from
2017-2018, then start to increase
from 2018-2019.

Home values for adjacent lots steadily increased in
value from 2019-
2022, and have remained neutral since
2022. Home values for non-adjacent lots have
continued to steadily increase in value from 2019 and
thereafter.

9 Data Analysis of Comparison Golf Courses
2019/2021 Report Versions
The research for this study is summarized in three parts:

1. In-depth analysis of price trends over time for home sales in the three comparable golf communities selected on the basis of a closure and subsequent repositioning;

2. “Before and after” price comparisons (i.e., before and after a major change potentially affecting property values) for 12-hole California golf courses known to be successful; and

3. A summary of other projects investigated for potential relationship to the research questions related to the overall analysis.

1. Price impacts of over time for comparable communities This research includes in-depth analysis of home sales in comparable communities over time for golf course communities, including the subject property, “Camarillo Springs Golf Course Community.” These projects are listed in Table 1 below. The data compiled and analyzed focus on a variety of housing types found in these different communities: single-family homes, and some condo/townhomes, as well as mobile homes at Camarillo Springs. The sales history essentially goes back to 2011, but data are more complete from 2012 to present.

Our study of these comparables and the subject revealed that the conditions listed below describe similar physical and circumstantial characteristics that were common among all of them:

1. Timeline of events that would have been most likely to impact homeowners within most of these communities were in effect and measurable, at least for closings and agreed-upon resolutions, but not necessarily for actual re-openings and redevelopment, between 2012 and today. At Moreno Valley, the redesigned project was only opened in summer of 2020, and Rancho Mirage reopening/redevelopment is still pending; Escondido residential redevelopment is in initial stages.

2. Each of the comparable projects had an existing golf course where the golf course operations changed ownership.

3. New ownership of the golf course projects involved a change to the existing land use for portions of or the entire golf course.

4. Each of the comparable projects had neighborhood involvement that began with opposition, then compromise with community involvement, further study, and resolution concerning future actions (e.g. legal settlements, recommendations to governing bodies, etc.), although as noted resolution in writing has not yet progressed to full physical development.

5. While the conditions described above did have some impact on home sales transactions, the impacts were mainly indirect and challenging to definitively summarize quantitatively.

T
ABLE 1. SUMMARY OF COMMUNITIES INVESTIGATED
(CLOSED AND REPOSITIONED/REPURPOSED GOLF COURSES)
10 Golf Course
Community
Property
Analysis7 Research Notes Closing
Date Operational Status
Camarillo
Springs Golf
Course
Community
Full
spectrum
of
residential
unit types
Limited inventory of single-family
Residential homes adjacent to
the golf course, so condos and
townhouses combined with
single-family Mobile homes
analyzed as well, separately.

N/A
Facility is still operational.

The golf course has been
proposed to be converted to
12 holes.

Moreno Valley
Resort Golf
Club
Community
Single-
Family
Residential

Units
Changes observed did not
support drawing definitive
conclusions with regard to the
changing conditions at the golf
course. Although there were
public meetings concerning plans
for changes within the golf
course community, these events
and
discussions did not appear to
have an impact on the sales
values according to the data we
collected from TNDG’s research.
8-2015,
purchased
in Feb,
2016 and
planned for
added
apartments
and
abandon-
ment of 9-
hole
section
Facility reduced from 27
holes to 18 holes. Riverside
(9H) closed for added
apartments and discgolf and
footgolf plus other open
space amenities; Other 18
open as of Aug. 2020 as
Rancho Del Sol
Rancho Mirage
Golf Country
Club
Community
(GCCC)
Condo/Co-
op
Residen-
tial Units
Inventory of homes within the
community was limited to
Condo/Co-op residential type
units.
9-21-2015
Course currently maintained
as “park” rather than golf
course, as purchaser
continues to share cost of
maintenance with HOA but
has apparently made little
progress on proposed (as
negotiated) development of
boutique hotel at site.

Escondido
Country Club
Golf Course
Single-
Family
Residential

Units
The timeline of events associated
with this golf course project
spans across the entire period
analyzed. This project is also the
only project where the golf
course is intended to be entirely
repurposed for single-family
homes with open space buffers
from existing homes .
4-1-2013
Golf Course now planned for
residential community, with
buffers between existing
homes, and initial
development is occurring
with Lennar Homes Canopy
Grove project.

Homeowners’ settlement
limited to reimbursement of
legal costs for fighting the
proposed residential
development
The findings of these investigations are summarized in Table 2 below, with additional detail provided in the series of charts that follow. Note that both the table and the charts make reference to “timeline key

7 Data on several residential property types (e.g. Single-Family Residential, Manufactured Homes, Condo/Co-op, and Townhomes) were collected during our initial analysis for each golf course project, including the subject golf course project. However, sales data for each product type individually were limited in some cases, and therefo re were combined with other types for use in this comparative analysis . 11 numbers,” which correspond to events in these communities that would presumably have corresponded to some home price/value effect, either due to the initiation of a closure or similar action, or some partial or full resolution of the initiating event at a later point in time. The matrix format of Table 2 facilitates comparison of home price effects across communities.

A summary of the technical approach to the analysis is contained in Appendix A. 12 TABLE 2. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, ANALYSIS OF GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY COMPARABLES IN RELATION TO CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY (CLOSED AND REPOSITIONED/REPURPOSED GOLF COURSES)
Situation/Course Camarillo Springs (see
Figure 1)
Rancho Mirage (see Figure 2) Moreno Valley (see
Figure 3)
Escondido (see Figure 4)
Relationship to
alternative
configurations
investigated
Course is operating under
conditions of reduced
functionality, ; alternative
resolutions are under
evaluation
Course closed, some potential
for reopening apparently
remains, but course is
maintained only as “park” at
present
Course closed after
declining for a few years
prior; facility reduced
from 27 to 18 holes and
reopened Aug. 2020
Course closed; eventual
repurposing plan settled upon
after protracted opposition,
with some new residential
added to former course and
active open space buffers
between new and existing
residential
Housing type mix SFR; Manufactured Homes;
Condo/Townhomes
Condo/Townhomes SFR; Condo/Townhomes SFR; Condo/Townhomes Other conditions
potentially
affecting prices
Environmental hazards (e.g.
flooding or fires)
Environmental hazards (e.g.
flooding or fires)
Initiating events, timeline key #: (1)

1. Golf course purchased by
current owners

1. Golf Course Closed 9-21-
2015

1. Golf course closed 8-
2015

1. Golf course was foreclosed
12/2012, closed in 2013
Summary of
noted effects
Home values start to decline
for lots both adjacent to the
golf course and non-adjacent
(except that non-adjacent
mobile home properties
increased in value). The
residents may not have been
aware of owner's long-term
plans for the golf course.

However, other factors such as
operations and maintenance
may have played a factor
during this time if they were
Home values for both property
on the golf course and outside
the community significantly
decline between 2015 and
2016. However, values
recovered quickly for property
adjacent to the golf course
through 2018, while values on
nonadjacent lots continued to
fluctuate, leveling off (relative
to 2016 prices) as of 2019.

Home values for
property adjacent and
non-adjacent to the golf
course, essentially held
steady to 2016 (course
was re-purchased that
year), while prices in the
city increased
considerably. From 2016
to 2018, price increases
tended to mirror that of
the overall community
Home values increased sharply
for property adjacent and non-
adjacent to the golf course,
mirroring the increase for the
city as a whole. Property further
away from the golf course also
increased, but at a lesser rate,
from 2012 to 2013. The
foreclosure of the golf course
didn't seem to directly impact
home sales values.
13 Situation/Course Camarillo Springs (see
Figure 1)
Rancho Mirage (see Figure 2) Moreno Valley (see
Figure 3)
Escondido (see Figure 4)
disclosed to residents or
visually apparent.

2. Residents learn of impending
closure 10-14-2016 in letter
from owner

2. New owner closes golf course
on 4-1-2013
Summary of
noted effects
Home values for single-
family/condo properties have
declined for lots adjacent to the
golf course and continue to
decline, while non-adjacent lots
increase between 2016 and
2017. Mobile home lot patterns
are different, with prices of
non-adjacent lots decreasing
and adjacent lots increasing
over this same period.

Home values increased for
homes not adjacent to the golf
course, but declined slightly for
homes adjacent to the golf
course from 2013 to 2014. The
closure of the golf course had a
slightly negative effect on
property values for homes
adjacent to the golf course, but
did not appear to have impacted
homes that were not adjacent to
the golf course.

3. Owner filed the first
residential development
proposal for property, on 8-9-
2013. City Council passed
ordinance in 8-14-2013 to make
golf course an open space park
in general plan. Owner then filed
a lawsuit.

Summary of
noted effects
Home values increased only
slightly for homes adjacent to
the golf course from 2014 to
2015, while non-adjacent home
prices fluctuated but generally
increased through 2017. By
2016 adjacent properties price
14 Situation/Course Camarillo Springs (see
Figure 1)
Rancho Mirage (see Figure 2) Moreno Valley (see
Figure 3)
Escondido (see Figure 4)
levels and subsequent increases
basically mirrored those of all
the other property categories.

4. On 10-31-2016, the developer
filed a proposed development
plan application, which
consisted of a proposed General
Plan Amendment and Rezone.

Summary of
noted effects
All home values increased from
2016 to 2017. The development
plans submitted by the
developer seemed to have had
no effect or possibly a positive
impact on home sale values
from 2016 to 2017.

5. In 2017, a split City Council
approved developer’s project,
but the homeowners’
association files lawsuit.

Summary of
noted effects
All home values increased from
2017 to 2018, although non-
adjacent properties did so at a
lower rate The lawsuit seems to
have had little effect on home
sales values from 2017 to 2018.

Resolution/current status, timeline key #: (1)

3. Owner submits GP
Amendment, working with
residents since 9-1-2017;
comments being received on
Draft EIR as of 1-25-2021

2. Golf course could in theory
reopen but new owner has
apparently not progressed with
hotel development plan that
would expedite this

2. Facility reduced from
27 to 18 holes. Golf
course opened summer
of 2020

6. June/July 2019 Lawsuit settled
between two parties, which
included adding homes to
portions of former golf course,
currently in progress.
15 Situation/Course Camarillo Springs (see
Figure 1)
Rancho Mirage (see Figure 2) Moreno Valley (see
Figure 3)
Escondido (see Figure 4)
Summary of
noted effects
For single-family/condo
properties, home values for
both non-adjacent lots and lots
adjacent to the golf course
increase markedly in value for
2017-2018. However, non-
adjacent property values fell
from 2018 to 2020. For mobile
home adjacent properties,
property values increased
(overall) after 2017, while
nonadjacent values declined,
until increasing strongly after
2018.

Home values for property on
the golf course sharply decline
between 2018 and 2019,
recovering somewhat late
2020. Meanwhile, properties
non-adjacent to a golf course
and outside the community
increased markedly from lows
of 2018-2019, by 20 20.

Home values for both
property on the golf
course and non-adjacent
lots within the
community had
increased between 2018
and 2019, during a
period when values
communitywide were
flat. From 2019 to 2020
adjacent lots fell in value
while other properties
had increases similar to
the city as a whole. B. B
Home values increased
markedly for property in close
proximity to the course, but less
so for non--adjacent properties,
from 2018 to 2020. Home values
for property in the overall city
fluctuated from decreases
(2018-2019) To increasing at a
lower rate 2019-2020.

Comparison to
host community
price trends
Home sales values within
Camarillo show a gradual
increase while values both
declined and increased
between 2015-2018 in
Camarillo Springs Golf Course.

Home sales values within
Rancho Mirage show a steady
increase over the analysis
period, with the exception of a
dip in values in 2017.

Home sales values
within Moreno Valley
show a pattern of a
widening (higher-priced)
differential with Moreno
Valley GCC over the
entire analysis period.

Home sales values within
Escondido show a gradual
increase over the years and
slight decline from 2018- 2019.

Values of homes associated with
Escondido GC show variability
prior to 2016 but steady
increases after that.

Key points relative
to this analysis
Home sales values were
negatively impacted by these
events and declined between
the years of 2015 and 2017.

Home values increased after
2018 for adjacent properties
but declined for non-adjacent
single-family/condo properties.

The wide fluctuations in prices
over the course of the analysis
period complicate the overall
picture of value changes over
time, so trendlines have been
added to the chart
representing each of the two
property-location categories
(dashed lines in the
corresponding color). These
Changes to the golf
course appear to have
dampened the rate of
price increases, when
compared to the city as
a whole, by 2020. I
Home sale prices were initially
negatively impacted by these
events. Slight declines happened
between 2013 and 2015 for
homes adjacent to the golf
course. For homes not adjacent
to the golf course, declines in
home sales values happened in
2016 before making a major
increase in 2017. Overall, home
16 Situation/Course Camarillo Springs (see
Figure 1)
Rancho Mirage (see Figure 2) Moreno Valley (see
Figure 3)
Escondido (see Figure 4)
help demonstrate that the
2012 price differential between
higher-priced golf course lots in
Rancho Mirage GCCC,
compared to those at non-
adjacent lots, had trended
toward convergence by 2020.
values have continued to
increase since 2016.

Additional Notes There are considerably more
non-adjacent lots than lots
adjacent to the golf course.

Due to fact that the golf course
community was comprised of
condos, this was the only asset
type analyzed for this
comparable. All of the lots in
Rancho Mirage GCCC are
adjacent to the golf course.

Notes: 1. See charts corresponding to each community, below, for timeline key number references in relation to unit -price/volume data. 17 The following series of charts (Figures 1 through 5) correspond to the subject property and the three other comparable communities analyzed. These charts show both the number of sales and the average home price per square foot changes over time, for the sample of housing units for which data were compiled (which vary by type at the different locations, as shown on the charts). The first two figures, 1 and 2, show the numbers for, respectively, single-family homes/condos, and mobile homes.

The bracketed numbers at the top of each chart (with the legend shown below the chart) correspond to the “timeline key numbers” shown in the Table 2 matrix above.

FIGURE 1. CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL, CONDO, AND TOWNHOME

HOME SALES

Note: The left axis corresponds to the line chart with markers representing the average price per square foot for home sales of the property types shown in the figure title, for each “locational category” analyzed, in this case: property adjacent to the golf course within the community, property non-adjacent to the golf course within the community, and the average price per square foot of single-family homes in Camarillo. The right axis corresponds to the column chart representing the number of sales for each property type.
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 $130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
$190.00
$200.00
$210.00
$220.00
$230.00
$240.00
$250.00
$260.00
$270.00
$280.00
$290.00
$300.00
$310.00
$320.00
$330.00
$340.00
$350.00
$360.00
$370.00
$380.00
$390.00
$400.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
No. of Sales
Average Price per SF
Year of Home Sale
No. of Sales of Property Adjacent to Golf Course within Community No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Camarillo Average Price per Square Foot for Single-Family Residential Home Sales [1]
[2]
[3]
18 Timeline Legend (Figure 1)

1. Golf course purchased by current owners.

2. Residents learn of impending closure 10-14-2016 in letter from owner.

3. Owner submits GP Amendment, working with residents since 9-1-2017.

FIGURE 2. CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY MOBILE HOME SALES

Note: The left axis corresponds to the line chart with markers representing the average price per square foot for home sales of the property types shown in the figure title, for each “locational category” analyzed, in this case: adjacent to the golf course within the community, and non-adjacent to the golf course within the community. The right axis corresponds to the column chart representing the number of sales for each property type.

Timeline Legend (Figure 2)

1. Golf course purchased by current owners.

2. Residents learn of impending closure 10-14-2016 in letter from owner.

3. Owner submits GP Amendment, working with residents since 9-1-2017. 0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
20 $130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
$190.00
$200.00
$210.00
$220.00
$230.00
$240.00
$250.00
$260.00
$270.00
$280.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
No. of Sales
Average Price per SF
Year of Home Sale
No. of Sales of Property Adjacent to Golf Course within Community No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community [1]
[2]
[3]
19 FIGURE 3. RANCHO MIRAGE GOLF COUNTRY CLUB COMMUNITY CONDO RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

Note: The left axis corresponds to the line chart with markers representing the average price per square foot for home sales of the property types shown in the figure title, for each “locational category” analyzed, in this case: property adjacent to the golf course within the community, property non-adjacent to the golf course outside of the community, and the average price per square foot of condo homes in Rancho Mirage. The two dashed lines represent trend lines based on the two property types’ average prices by year, plotted in the corresponding color.

The right axis corresponds to the column chart representing the number of sales for each property type.

Timeline Legend (Figure 3)

1. Golf Course Closed 9-21-2015.

2. Golf course reopening and accompanying hotel development, as planned, have yet to occur. 0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
$190.00
$200.00
$210.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
No. of Sales
Average Price per SF
Year of Home Sale
No. of Sales of Property Adjacent to Golf Course within Community No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Outside of Community Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Outside of Community Rancho Mirage Average Price per Square Foot for Condo Home Sales [1] [2]
20 FIGURE 4. MORENO VALLEY RESORT GOLF CLUB COMMUNITY SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

Note: The left axis corresponds to the line chart with markers representing the average price per square foot for home sales of the property types shown in the figure title, for each “locational category” analyzed, in this case: adjacent to the golf course within the community, property non- adjacent to the golf course within the community, property non-adjacent to the golf course outside the community, and the average price per square foot of single-family homes in Moreno Valley. The right axis corresponds to the column chart representing the number of sales for each property type.

Timeline Legend (Figure 4)

1. Golf course closed August of 2015.

2. Facility reduced from 27 to 18 holes. Golf course opened summer of 2020.

0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
$190.00
$200.00
$210.00
$220.00
$230.00
$240.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
No. of Sales
Average Price per SF
Year of Home Sale
No. of Sales of Property Adjacent to Golf Course within Community No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Outside of Community Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Outside of Community Moreno Valley Average Price per Square Foot for Single-Family Residential Home Sales [1]
[2]
21 FIGURE 5. ESCONDIDO COUNTRY CLUB GOLF COURSE SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

Note: The left axis corresponds to the line chart with markers representing the average price per square foot for home sales of each property type shown in the figure title, for each “locational category” analyzed, in this case: property adjacent to the golf course, property non-adjacent to the golf course, but in close proximity to the golf course, property non- adjacent to the golf course that is further away from the golf course, and the average price per square foot of single- family homes in Escondido. The right axis corresponds to the column chart representing the number of sales for each property type.

Timeline Legend (Figure 5)

1. Golf course was foreclosed 12/2012.
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
$180.00
$190.00
$200.00
$210.00
$220.00
$230.00
$240.00
$250.00
$260.00
$270.00
$280.00
$290.00
$300.00
$310.00
$320.00
$330.00
$340.00
$350.00
$360.00
$370.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
No. of Sales
Average Price per SF
Year of Home Sale
No. of Sales of Property Adjacent to Golf Course
No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course, but in Close Proximity to Golf Course No. of Sales of Property Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Further Away From Golf Course Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course
Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course, but in Close Proximity to Golf Course Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course and Further Away From Golf Course Escondido Average Price per Square Foot for Single-Family Residential Home Sales [1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
22 2. New owner closes golf course on 4/2013.

3. Owner filed the first residential development proposal for property, on 8 -9-2013. City Council passed ordinance in 8-14-2013 to make golf course an open space park in general plan. Owner then filed a lawsuit.

4. On 10-31-2016, the developer filed a proposed development plan applic ation, which consisted of a proposed General Plan Amendment and Rezoning.

5. In 2017, a split City Council approved developer’s project, but the homeowners’ association files lawsuit.

6. June/July 2019 Lawsuit settled between two parties. Residential development proceeding as of 2020.

23 2. “Before and After” Price Comparisons for Successful 12-Hole California Golf Courses The Camarillo Springs Golf Course is expected to convert to a 12-hole course. Summary information on two 12-hole courses is shown below. The Monarch Dunes course is a within an existing, and remaining, larger course, and appears to have been created to add to the appeal of the overall golf course complex.

The conversion to 12 holes from a larger course at Hawks Landing appears to have been for the sake of expediency, to enhance appeal within a more manageable golf footprint.

Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes, Nipomo. This conversion apparently went along with the addition of a Trilogy retirement community.

Hawks Landing, Yucca Valley. Blue Skies CC was closed for 7 years, then re-done as 12 holes, opening in 2015. Housing units surrounding the course are mainly both condos and mobile homes, and a few single-family homes that may or may not be tied directly to the course based only on review of aerial photography.

In a study prepared by NGF as part of this investigation of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course8, the NGF profiled these two 12-hole California golf courses (above) – the 12-hole par-3 course in Nipomo (Monarch Dunes) and the 12-hole regulation course in Yucca Valley (Hawk’s Landing). According to NGF, “these courses reported enjoying great economic and activity success, and general acceptance from golfers who especially appreciate the shorter time commitment required for play” (page 6).

Knowing that these conversions/additions had a positive outcome, home price conditions for these two courses were examined at three points in time: 1) before some decision to convert/add was made, 2) when prices seemed to be at a low point in intervening years, for whatever reason, and 3) after the conversion took place. These price differences related to the golf courses were then compared to the differences in price levels for the host community at the same time periods.

Home sales samples from Yucca Valley/Hawks Landing are fairly limited, so any conclusions must be conditioned on that situation. Taking the numbers at face value, we could conditionally conclude that home prices are approaching pre-Recession levels. (Given the data limitations and price fluctuations for both of the courses/communities analyzed, multiple years of data were aggregated in some cases to help level the fluctuations that appeared in the data compilations.) The results of this analysis are shown in Table 3. The “before” conditions on the table refer to, for Monarch Dunes, the time period between the development of the 18-hole course at the community and the 12-hole course (and the course was later modified to simplify its playability). For Hawks Landing, the “before” period is intended to reflect conditions prior to modification of the 18-hole course to 12 holes. “After” conditions reflect the time period after which both of the 12-hole courses were established.

The data show that the price changes at the golf courses roughly follow the same pattern as those of the host communities. At Monarch Dunes, overall community prices fell to the “trough” point by a higher percentage than the golf course properties, and the recovery to recent-year price levels was therefore higher for the community than for golf course properties. At Hawks Landing, the percentage changes are quite similar for the golf course and community. The changes are generally positive in terms of price changes over time and recovery from low points. Sales figures upon which the table is based generally

8 NGF Consulting, Business Analysis of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course in Camarillo, CA . November 2019. 24 correspond to “before” conditions in 2006-2007, low-price troughs in the 2009-2012 range, and “after” prices in the 2016-2018 period.

TABLE 3. PERCENT CHANGE IN AVERAGE HOME PRICE PER SF, BY TIME INTERVAL (SELECTED 12-HOLE GOLF COURSES)
Project / Community Before-After Before to Low-
Price Trough
Low-price Trough
to “After”
Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes, Nipomo 16% -16% 39%
Nipomo Community-wide 7% -38% 72%

Hawks Landing, Yucca Valley -37% -63% 69%
Yucca Valley Community-wide -27% -56% 67%

3. Other Projects Investigated
Other golf course communities were also investigated within this study; however, these properties were not selected as meaningful comparables due to conditions that differed from those at Camarillo Springs GCC. Each is discussed briefly below.

Borrego Springs
• The original project has no homes and no lots are indicated as being marketed, which is also the area where the golf course has been abandoned.
• Even in the area where the golf course has been retained, housing development is very sparse.

Palm Lake
• 9-hole golf course that closed in the beginning of 2017. • Homes closest to golf course are not directly involved in the project. • Golf course deeded as a public course for recreational purposes. • Course has been fenced and allowed to deteriorate without mitigation. • Over the last few years, discussions have occurred regarding possible redevelopment of the course.

Sand Canyon Country Club, Santa Clarita
• Former 36-hole and now 27-hole course (2016), with ongoing discussions about adding hotel and other resort facilities.
• The closed part of the course is the portion with 9 holes with no homesites fronting this part of the course.
• There are a few homesites near this closed portion of the golf course, but are not part of the golf course development and represent higher priced housing probably unaffected by this closed portion of the golf course.
• Home values of other properties within the development might have been positively affected due to the preservation of other portions of the course, but it is unclear whether other conditions may have affected their value prior to this action. 25 Wickenburg Ranch, Wickenburg, Arizona
• began in 2015
• 18-hole and 9-hole short courses.
• One question that arises is whether the 9 “short” holes added in late 2016 were in response to perceptions that buyers at that time had a diminishing interest in golfing. • Onsite inspection reveals that these properties are mostly occupied by retirees. • It is not clear whether expensive homes built in 2017 prior to current lower-priced homes were ever occupied.
• The project appears to be absorbing at a fairly competitive rate, with homes priced from $250,000 to $700,000 or more.
• The homesite areas tend to be quite a bit higher in elevation than the golf course. 10-Hole Course at The Quarry at La Quinta
A new “Short Course” has 10 holes with 29 homesites surrounding. Almost 2/3 of these were built out as of the date of available aerial photos. Short Course average lot prices/values shown (per Zillow), at $150,000 to $280,000 are well below those at the Championship course, some of which have asking prices of $1.25 million. Home prices/values show less of a contrast, generally ranging from $2 million to $5 million at the Championship course and $1.5 to less than $3 million on the Short Course. However, there is no particular reason to assume that this difference in pricing was not a deliberate part of the overall course reconfiguration business plan, rather than some inevitable result of the Short Course being deemed less desirable.

26 2023 Update
With this 2023 update, TNDG focused on capturing property value trends subsequent to the prior full update of this report in 2021. To maintain context, the tables and charts showing the updated numbers include valuation figures going back to 2012, reflecting the data shown in the original study. In that study, TNDG conducted in-depth analyses of home sales in comparable golf course communities over time, including the subject property, “Camarillo Springs Golf Course Community.” The other communities addressed in prior reports and included in this update include:
• Escondido
• Moreno Valley
• Rancho Mirage
Figures 6 and 7 show, respectively, average values over time for residential property, for property adjacent to a golf course and non-adjacent. The dollar figures represent dollars per square foot. The charted data are also shown on Tables 4 and 5 following the charts.

27 FIGURE 6. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN EACH GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY

Notes to Figure 6:

1. Camarillo properties includes SFR, Townhouses, and Condos. Rancho Mirage includes Condos only. Moreno Valley includes SFR only. Escondido includes SFR, and Manufactured Homes.

2. All Rancho Mirage property within the Rancho Mirage Golf Course Community is adjacent to the existing golf course within the community.

3. Escondido property adjacent to the original golf course is within the original Escondido Country Club Golf Course Community.

$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
$500.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Camarillo Rancho Mirage Moreno Valley Escondido
28 TABLE 4. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE

WITHIN EACH GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
Year Camarillo Escondido Moreno Valley Rancho Mirage
2012 $170.20 $88.70 $180.00
2013 $280.39 $218.33 $122.32 $185.59
2014 $314.63 $215.53 $134.22 $192.24
2015 $327.75 $219.23 $145.09 $191.84
2016 $320.38 $268.54 $142.72 $148.93
2017 $329.48 $291.20 $157.87 $166.59
2018 $391.71 $311.14 $162.84 $197.19
2019 $355.54 $317.76 $187.04 $170.83
2020 $338.28 $359.89 $164.38 $188.50
2021 $425.54 $423.93 $222.74 $237.51
2022 $488.89 $413.90 $260.12 $306.31
2023 $440.80 $452.03 $222.81 $306.40
Sources: Redfin; Trulia; Riverside County Assessor/Recorder; San Diego County Assessor/Recorder; Ventura County Assessor/Recorder; TNDG. Note that these sources also apply to Tables 5 thru 9.

29 FIGURE 7. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN COMMUNITY OR OUTSIDE COMMUNITY

Notes to Figure 7:

1. Camarillo properties includes SFR, Townhouses, and Condos. Rancho Mirage includes Condos only. Moreno Valley includes SFR only. Escondido includes SFR, and Manufactured Homes.

2. Rancho Mirage property that is non-adjacent to the existing golf course is outside of the Rancho Mirage Golf Course Community.

3. Not all Escondido non-adjacent property is within the original Escondido Country Club Golf Course Community, but is in close proximity to the original golf course.

$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
$500.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Camarillo Rancho Mirage Moreno Valley Escondido
30 TABLE 5. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE

WITHIN COMMUNITY OR OUTSIDE COMMUNITY
Year Camarillo Escondido Moreno Valley Rancho Mirage
2012 $227.84 $160.49 $89.06 $146.98
2013 $291.93 $214.90 $122.36 $135.21
2014 $297.72 $226.62 $140.69 $157.58
2015 $323.14 $267.56 $141.85 $185.16
2016 $319.12 $249.15 $146.48 $144.73
2017 $315.26 $296.52 $159.29 $160.19
2018 $359.03 $300.55 $163.96 $138.57
2019 $365.60 $317.59 $172.57 $145.06
2020 $374.67 $329.44 $193.15 $200.09
2021 $433.11 $391.86 $219.22 $245.88
2022 $480.98 $456.30 $285.55 $314.66
2023 $467.95 $484.60 $201.68 $365.17

The table below summarizes findings from Figures and Tables 4 and 5.

Golf Community/City Summary of Findings

ALL COMMUNITIES
The relative scarcity of lot sales data for 2023 (and in some cases for 2022), especially for lots adjacent to the golf course, mean that the findings indicated in the preceding figures and discussed below must be viewed in the light of their limited statistical rigor.

Camarillo Springs
Home values for both interior lots and lots adjacent to the golf course continued to increase in value since 2020, although sales for 2023 seem to be declining in value for both interior lots and lots adjacent to the golf course. Activity may have had a overall uptick after the pandemic, but based on the data thus far in 2023, interior lots are selling at slightly higher values than lots adjacent to the golf course, and declined by less. Development uncertainty concerning the reconfiguration of the existing golf course and other associated developments may have had some negative effect on golf course lots and interior-lot home sales.

Note: In this update there are few data points for lots adjacent to the golf course (for 2022 and 2023), and a greater number of non-adjacent data points. Consequently, the findings discussed above must be viewed in that regard.
31 Golf Community/City Summary of Findings
Escondido
Since the last update, the Golf Course was redeveloped with an infill development that used some of the golf course as preserved open space.

Home values have generally continued to increase since the pandemic, with non-adjacent property in close proximity to the original golf course out- performing property that was adjacent to the original golf course, in 2022 and 2023.

Note: There are more non-adjacent lots with sales data than lots adjacent to the golf course in 2021 and 2022 (and data for adjacent lots are also limited in most prior years). There are only a few sales captured for either scenario for 2023.

Moreno Valley
Home values dropped slightly for adjacent properties 2019-2020. There has been a decline in values for 2023, for both adjacent and non-adjacent properties, with non-adjacent lots dropping most. As of 2023, values for property adjacent to the golf course are higher than interior lots within the community - the opposite of the value relationship in 2022.

There are only a few sales captured for either scenario for 2023.

Rancho Mirage
Home values dropped slightly prior to the pandemic, but thereafter, values have (generally) continued to increase. There has been a flattening of values for 2023 for adjacent properties. Generally, property values adjacent to the golf course have been less than properties that are non-adjacent lots that are outside the golf course community.

Relevant updates for this community include:
• Golf course is open
• Mid-2019 Developer established DA with City and had plan approved for hotel and separate condo-hotel units in the middle of the community, which the HOA signed off on after lengthy litigation. It appears that the pandemic halted some, if not all, of the development progress because none of the redevelopment of the golf course appears to have taken place.

There are only a few sales captured for either scenario for 2023.

The following four charts and accompanying tables show the value relationships over time between lots adjacent to the golf course and those non-adjacent, for each community individually.

32 FIGURE 8. CAMARILLO SFR, TOWNHOUSES, AND CONDOS ADJACENT AND NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN THE

COMMUNITY

TABLE 6. CAMARILLO SFR, TOWNHOUSES, AND CONDOS ADJACENT AND NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE

WITHIN THE COMMUNITY
Year Property Prices Adjacent to Golf
Course within Community
Property Prices Non-Adjacent to
Golf Course within Community
2012 $227.84
2013 $280.39 $291.93
2014 $314.63 $297.72
2015 $327.75 $323.14
2016 $320.38 $319.12
2017 $329.48 $315.26
2018 $391.71 $359.03
2019 $355.54 $365.60
2020 $338.28 $374.67
2021 $425.54 $433.11
2022 $488.89 $480.98
2023 $440.80 $467.95

$200.00
$220.00
$240.00
$260.00
$280.00
$300.00
$320.00
$340.00
$360.00
$380.00
$400.00
$420.00
$440.00
$460.00
$480.00
$500.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community 33 FIGURE 9. ESCONDIDO SFR AND MANUFACTURED HOMES ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN COMMUNITY AND NON-

ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE, BUT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO GOLF COURSE

Notes

1. Escondido property adjacent to the original golf course is within the original Escondido Country Club Golf Course Community.

2. Not all Escondido non-adjacent property is within the original Escondido Country Club Golf Course Community, but is in close proximity to the original golf course.

TABLE 7. ESCONDIDO SFR AND MANUFACTURED HOMES ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN COMMUNITY AND NON-

ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE, BUT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO GOLF COURSE Year Property Prices Adjacent to Golf
Course within Community
Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf
Course, but in Close Proximity to Golf Course
2012 $170.20 $160.49
2013 $218.33 $214.90
2014 $215.53 $226.62
2015 $219.23 $267.56
2016 $268.54 $249.15
2017 $291.20 $296.52
2018 $311.14 $300.55
2019 $317.76 $317.59
2020 $359.89 $329.44
2021 $423.93 $391.86
2022 $413.90 $456.30
2023 $452.03 $484.60
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
$220.00
$240.00
$260.00
$280.00
$300.00
$320.00
$340.00
$360.00
$380.00
$400.00
$420.00
$440.00
$460.00
$480.00
$500.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course, but in Close Proximity to Golf Course. 34 FIGURE 10. MORENO VALLEY SFR ADJACENT AND NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN THE COMMUNITY

TABLE 8. MORENO VALLEY SFR ADJACENT AND NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE WITHIN THE COMMUNITY Year Property Prices Adjacent to Golf
Course within Community
Property Prices Non-Adjacent to
Golf Course within Community
2012 $88.70 $89.06
2013 $122.32 $122.36
2014 $134.22 $140.69
2015 $145.09 $141.85
2016 $142.72 $146.48
2017 $157.87 $159.29
2018 $162.84 $163.96
2019 $187.04 $172.57
2020 $164.38 $193.15
2021 $222.74 $219.22
2022 $260.12 $285.55
2023 $222.81 $201.68

$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
$220.00
$240.00
$260.00
$280.00
$300.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course within Community 35 FIGURE 11. RANCHO MIRAGE CONDOS ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE IN COMMUNITY AND NON-ADJACENT TO

GOLF COURSE OUTSIDE COMMUNITY

Notes

1. Rancho Mirage property that is non-adjacent to the existing golf course is outside of the Rancho Mirage Golf Course Community.

2. Rancho Mirage property that is non-adjacent to the existing golf course is outside of the Rancho Mirage Golf Course Community.

TABLE 9. RANCHO MIRAGE CONDOS ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE IN COMMUNITY

AND NON-ADJACENT TO GOLF COURSE OUTSIDE COMMUNITY
Year Property Prices Adjacent to Golf
Course within Community
Property Prices Non-Adjacent to
Golf Course outside of Community
2012 $180.00 $146.98
2013 $185.59 $135.21
2014 $192.24 $157.58
2015 $191.84 $185.16
2016 $148.93 $144.73
2017 $166.59 $160.19
2018 $197.19 $138.57
2019 $170.83 $145.06
2020 $188.50 $200.09
2021 $237.51 $245.88
2022 $306.31 $314.66
2023 $306.40 $365.17

$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
$220.00
$240.00
$260.00
$280.00
$300.00
$320.00
$340.00
$360.00
$380.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Property Prices Adjacent to Golf Course within Community Property Prices Non-Adjacent to Golf Course outside of Community 36 Update: “Before and After” Price Comparisons for Successful 12-Hole California Golf Courses The Camarillo Springs Golf Course is expected to convert to a 12-hole course. Summary information on two 12-hole courses is shown below. The Monarch Dunes course is a within an existing, and remaining, larger course, and appears to have been created to add to the appeal of the overall golf course complex.

The conversion to 12 holes from a larger course at Hawks Landing appears to have been for the sake of expediency, to enhance appeal within a more manageable golf footprint.

Table 10, an updated version of Table 3 in the section, “2019/2021 Report Versions,” above, summarizes the results of an analysis of “before” and “after” price conditions (in dollars per square foot) and price changes from the time of that analysis to the present. The “before” conditions on the table refer to, for Monarch Dunes, the time period between the development of the 18-hole course at the community and the 12-hole course (and the course was later modified to simplify its playability). For Hawks Landing, the “before” period is intended to reflect conditions prior to modification of the 18-hole course to 12 holes. “After” conditions reflect the time period after which both of the 12-hole courses were established. The “troughs” refer to the point in time when prices appeared to bottom-out prior to the course modifications.

The last column of the table, with the 2023 updated figures, shows that golf-course-related property had greater value increases for the period of 2021 to 2023 than their respective communities at large (and to a similar degree for both courses/communities).

TABLE 10. PERCENT CHANGE IN AVERAGE HOME PRICE PER SF, BY TIME INTERVAL (SELECTED 12-HOLE GOLF COURSES)
Project / Community Before-
After
Before to
Low-Price
Trough
Low-price
Trough to
“After”
Update: 2021
to 2023
Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes,
Nipomo
16% -16% 39% 23%
Nipomo Community-wide 7% -38% 72% 16%

Hawks Landing, Yucca Valley -37% -63% 69% 21%
Yucca Valley Community-wide -27% -56% 67% 15%

Conclusions to 2023 update
Despite data limitations associated with the updates over the last few years, home values generally continued to increase, except for some drops in values from 2022 to 2023, including at Camarillo Springs, where non-adjacent lots had higher values – a condition shared at Escondido. Values were also lower for Moreno Valley as of 2023, for both adjacent and non-adjacent properties. Values in Rancho Mirage for non-adjacent properties outperformed those next to the golf course.

Values of properties adjacent and nonadjacent to the golf course paralleled each other within all the communities for much of the earlier segment of the 12-year analysis period. In general, adjacency to the golf course has not produced noticeable premiums in the last few years in comparison to nonadjacent lots, according to the data (again, allowing for small numbers of cases to have influenced these findings). 37 However, for the two 12-hole course conversions, properties on the courses had a greater value increase than their overall respective communities, for the 2021-2023 period (Table 10).

Table 11 below summarizes the relationship between development milestones (occurring in the years shown) in Camarillo Springs and the three featured comparison golf communities, and their property- value effects.

38 TABLE 11. CHANGES IN PROPERTY VALUES OVER TIME PERIOD, 2015-2022 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2022
Camarillo Springs Golf Course Community
GC pur-
chased by
new owner
Residents
informed of
impending
closure
GC Owner
submits GP
Amendment for
redev.

COVID Pandemic Post-Pandemic
Home values for both types
decline until 2017.

Home values for adjacent lots increase from 2017 to
2018, and then decrease until 2020. Home values for
non-adjacent lots increased from 2017 until 2022.

Home values for
both types
decline after
2022.

Escondido Country Club Golf Course

GC Owner
submits GP
Amendment
for redev.

CC approves GP
Amendment –
HOA files lawsuit
Lawsuit settled,
and GC proceeds
to be redev. w/
infill residential
COVID Pandemic Post-Pandemic
Home values for adjacent lots continued to increase from 2015-2021, but had a slight decline from 2021-2022. Home values for non-adjacent lots declined from 2015-2016, but increased in value from 2016-2022.

Home values for
both types
increase after
2022.

Moreno Valley Resort Golf Club Community
Course
closed
COVID
Pandemic;
Course reopens
Post-Pandemic
Home values for both types
held values from 2015-
2016.

Home values for both types increased from 2017-2019.

While non-adjacent lots continued to increase until
2022, adjacent lots had a decline from 2019-2020, but
increased from 2020-2022.

Home values for
both types
decline after
2022.

Rancho Mirage Golf Country Club Community (GCCC)
Course
closed
Litigation
between HOA
and new golf
course Owner/
Developer
Owner/Developer
establishes DA
with City and
HOA is in
agreement
COVID
Pandemic; Dev.

Plans stalled
Post-Pandemic
Home
values for
both types
decline
from 2015-
2016.

Home values for adjacent lots
increase from 2016-2018, and
then decline from 2018-2019.

Home values for non-adjacent
lots increase from 2016-2017
followed by a decrease from
2017-2018, then start to increase
from 2018-2019.

Home values for adjacent lots steadily increased in
value from 2019-2022, and have remained neutral
since 2022. Home values for non-adjacent lots have
continued to steadily increase in value from 2019 and
thereafter.

39 Appendix A: Methodology and Technical Documentation
Introduction
The process used for evaluating and analyzing home values around the Camarillo Springs Golf Course included a survey and study of comparable communities that were either golf course communities or residential communities that surrounded a golf course project. The following description of methodology addresses the most pertinent data gathered, the techniques employed, and the basis for conclusions concerning the impacts that golf courses have on residential property that is either adjacent to or near the golf courses.

Data Collection and Analysis
The home sales data used for this survey were collected from several sources that included Redfin public sales records, Trulia public sales records, County Assessor property records, and County Recorder recorded documents. Using these data, historical sales data were collected on transactions that took place as far back as 2012.9 After collecting the data, both the year and month of sales transaction were extracted and were randomly screened for data verification. In addition, historical sales data were also collected, screened, and selected on a citywide basis to provide averages for the price per square foot benchmarks for each year analyzed in this survey process.

Following this initial data collection, screening, and selection process, each sales transaction was plotted to determine and inventory where properties were located, especially in relation to proximity to the golf course. Through this analysis, three (3) general distinctions were applied when analyzing the location of properties associated with the golf course project:

1. Property located adjacent to the golf course and located within the associated golf course community,

2. Property located within a golf course community, but not directly adjacent to the golf course, and

3. Property located immediately outside of the golf course community.

Once the location distinctions were determined and inventoried, sales transactions were categorized by the year, residential product type (e.g. Single-Family Residential, Condo/Townhomes), and the location of the property in relation to the golf course. In order to provide standardization concerning the sales volume, this process was repeated to help ensure that each category had a sufficient sample size to analyze the results.

Visual Analysis
Charts
Once the final compilation of historical home sales data were screened and formatted, combination (dual axis) column and line charts were created to display the results. These combination charts pair the home sales volume by physical count in columns and the average price per square foot of home sales using lines to display this information. These charts show results by both by year and by the separate

9 The collection of historical sales also included sales from 2011. However, a sufficient number of sales could not be produced from 2011 to present in this analysis.
40 categories created to show the physical location distinctions of residential property in proximity to the golf course projects. Additionally, an accompanying line was included to show the average price per square foot for homes sold in the associated community where the golf course project is located, to provide additional context.

Maps
A map for each golf course project was created that plotted the home sales and differentiation by color that corresponds to the categories of physical location distinctions displayed on the charts. The following page shows a map example for the Camarillo Springs Golf Course Community where the plotted green points represent historical home sales adjacent to the golf course and plotted yellow points represent historical home sales within the community that are not adjacent to the golf course. 41 FIGURE A-1. MAP OF HISTORICAL HOME SALES PLOTTED AS AN EXAMPLE WITHIN THE SPRINGS GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY

1 MEMORANDUM
TO: Joseph R. Vacca, Director
Jaclyn Lee, Principal Planner
Department of Community Development
City of Camarillo
DATE: July 24, 2023
FROM: Roger Dale, Managing Principal
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG)
FILE: #4105
SUBJECT: Camarillo Springs Golf Course –
Analysis of Financial Sustainability of Community Facilities Maintenance

Background
As part of a series of economic studies related to the proposed reconfiguration of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course, the City of Camarillo requested that the TNDG team evaluate the degree to which anticipated revenue sources would be sufficient to ensure that community facilities within the Project would be maintained at acceptable levels in perpetuity. 1 The overall improvement plan for the Project
includes two major groups of community facilities:

1. Improvements directly related to the reconfigured golf course and golf clubhouse, which would be funded from golf course operational revenues; and

2. Other community facilities (not specifically tied to the golf course), which would be funded by the Homeowners Association (HOA) for the 248-unit residential development that is planned as part of the Project.

This memorandum provides TNDG’s conclusions about the financial sustainability of HOA-maintained facilities. Maintenance of golf course-related facilities is evaluated in a separate feasibility study prepared by NGF Consulting.

Summary conclusions
The key conclusions of TNDG’s evaluation are as follows:
• The maintenance costs estimated by the Project applicant (as described below) appear to be reasonable for the facility categories addressed in this analysis. However, as noted later in this memorandum, TNDG’s conclusions regarding the adequacy of the applicant’s proposed maintenance budget are subject to caveats based on limitations in the data provided by the applicant.
• The proposed HOA fee for the Project is at the low end of the scale compared to HOA fees for comparable communities in Camarillo and the surrounding region but would nevertheless be adequate to cover the community’s projected facility maintenance costs (including standard allowances for contingencies/reserves) for HOA-maintained facilities.

1 This evaluation is part of the Fiscal Impact Analysis (Item A) described in the 2017 General Plan Amendment (GPA) Referral Request for the project.
2 • Based on the above, TNDG concludes (subject to the noted caveats) that adequate long-term maintenance of the Project’s community facilities would be feasible/sustainable from a financial perspective.

Study process and methodology
Consistent with the approach outlined in the GPA Referral Request for the Project, TNDG’s approach to the maintenance cost analysis essentially involved a multi-step peer review of a maintenance plan and associated cost estimates supplied by the Project applicant. TNDG’s review process is further described below.

In February of 2023, TNDG began a review of a draft document produced by the applicant titled, Maintenance Manual, Camarillo Springs Golf Course Project Drainage System, dated February 2023. In addition to material related to the document title and a brief summary of costs related to golf course maintenance and HOA maintenance, the Maintenance Manual (Manual) included three appendices, each prepared by different entities, addressing the following:
• Annual Cost Description/Analysis of the proposed drainage system (additional operational details on the drainage system);
• Camarillo Springs Golf Course Maintenance Budget; and • HOA Maintenance Budget pertaining to the proposed new development of 248 residential units.

Following this initial review, TNDG and the City agreed to a process by which the TNDG team would undertake additional analysis steps, consisting of the following:

1. Review of the Project’s financial sustainability from the standpoint of maintenance costs related to both the HOA for the residential area and the reconfigured golf course, as separate entities (i.e., ability to fund ongoing upkeep of HOA-maintained areas, and operation and maintenance of the golf course), given updated data from the applicant (i.e., a revised version of the Maintenance Manual and other information).

2. Update of data and analysis related to the previous (draft) evaluation of potential impacts on surrounding property values with the reconfigured golf course.

3. Update of previous (draft) findings produced by the National Golf Foundation (NGF), as subconsultants to TNDG, relative to the market/financial feasibility of the proposed golf course reconfiguration.

This memo addresses Item 1 above. Analyses of the other items are provided as separate reports.

TNDG review and conclusions regarding cost figures

Review of Maintenance Manual figures
3 With the exception of items noted in the following section, which constitute caveats TNDG has applied to the following conclusions, TNDG believes the cost figures within the Manual budget worksheets represent feasible dollar amounts for the maintenance categories represented.2 HOA fee comparisons
TNDG also undertook a general comparison of homeowners’ fees for the Project, as calculated within the Manual (and given as $255.87), with fees in other homeowners associations at Camarillo Springs and a sample of other communities in Camarillo. This material is shown on Table 2, in the last section of this memo. On Table 2, HOA fees for the 11 communities listed range from a high of $518 to a low of $120, with only two communities having fees below $255. The simple average of the 11 is $343.50. According to Census data, the average monthly homeowner/condominium association fee for the Los Angeles/Long Beach MSA is $387.80, and $291.90 for California overall. Based on these findings, the Project’s proposed HOA fee, assuming it adequately covers the costs (without unduly burdening the homeowners with costs that might typically be covered by the HOA), would be competitive within Camarillo and the region.

The intent of the HOA fee comparison was to “sensitivity test” the fee amount given in the Manual with what was common in Camarillo (and generally for the LA region). While TNDG’s assessment provides some insights into this comparison, additional analysis would be necessary (attempting to specifically align what the HOAs are providing to the residents, identifying meaningful cost differences that different communities might be facing, etc.) to provide more definitive project-to-project comparisons. This would also require having additional information about what the Project HOA is providing, versus the homeowners themselves (some of which relates to the “caveats” noted in the section below).

Caveats regarding TNDG comments on the Maintenance Manual, relating to HOA maintenance costs and segmenting these costs from golf course-related costs Early in May of 2023, the City and TNDG received an updated version of the draft Maintenance Manual (dated May 8, 2023), and New Urban West also provided responses to TNDG’s comments on the previous draft. These responses provided some clarification on TNDG’s comments, and there are additional items that could be further elaborated upon. These comments are listed below. TNDG’s reservations pertaining to the supplied information (i.e., NUW responses to original comments) are shown in italics below the numbered items.

Original Comment (TNDG): Can the applicant provide a map that shows the locations of all areas itemized in the maintenance manual budget with a delineation of facilities for which maintenance would be funded out of golf course operating cash flows? Response (NUW): See Appendix E [in Manual]. A map has been provided showing the location and responsibility for maintenance of proposed improvements and facilities.

This map is helpful. One detail is that it shows the clubhouse site in green, as part of the golf course [legend], and lists the clubhouse as a line item within the Golf Course Maintenance part of the map legend. Also, the drainage budget (Appendix A) includes items such as the East Basin and West Basin, which are also part of the green area on the Appendix E map.

2 As TNDG has discussed with City staff, cost information related to drainage infrastructure, particularly, that involves engineering assessments of unique conditions (beyond the scope of TNDG’s study) have generally been assumed to be accurate as given.
4 Based on a review of the site plans in the pdf file “TTM 6016 Cam Springs_20220817,” it appears that there are small community park areas interspersed within the residential lots of the proposed residential development. Showing these on a revised Appendix E map (clarifying points previously made about golf course versus HOA areas), even if just by a symbol, would give reviewers a more complete sense of the community park system.

Original Comment: The HOA budget review section (Appendix C) refers to a landscape area of 356,211 square feet. Can the applicant provide clarification on where this landscape area is and what amenities it includes?
Response (NUW): See Appendix E for a map that clarifies location of HOA landscape areas. The total area was updated to 357,211. The budget accounts for all proposed open space amenities to the east of the driving range including passive park area, dog park, and walking trails. This area will be maintained by the HOA.

TNDG was unable to confirm that the total area includes the trail alongside the pond/water storage area, within the HOA area. Also, the General Project Inventory, Site Summary of Total Subdivision Area (page 9 of 18 in the California Department of Real Estate budget worksheet for Camarillo Springs, included within the Maintenance Manual dated May 2023), shows a calculation from which the total project area in square feet of the 182 acres, 7,927,920 ft.², less an area of paved surfaces of 441,456 ft.², yields a remainder of 357,211 ft.² A unit-cost figure is then applied to this area, so this apparent miscalculation is carried into the budget, yet might be most easily corrected by simply adding the building footprints and other details into the calculation of the “remainder” area shown on the table. (The 357,000+ square feet figure may be the actual amount or close to it; TNDG has not attempted to independently calculate the landscaped area.)

Original Comment: Appendix C, the HOA budget prepared by CBS, seems to be missing key information, with a number of relevant line items left blank on the cost worksheet. Are these items left blank because the costs are expected to be zero or is additional information still forthcoming? For items that are intentionally left blank, can the worksheet be updated to indicate “N/A” instead of leaving the lines blank?
Response (NUW): The worksheet has been updated the include “N/A” or “0.00” in those fields that are intentionally left blank or not applicable. Further, the HOA clubhouse budget was inadvertently omitted from the prior draft. It is now included within new Appendix D beginning on page 51 of the Manual. This budget includes, amongst other items, costs for tennis courts, swimming pool, and clubhouse facilities.

A number of cost items are still not included in the Reserves portion of the budget. The Reserve Study Guidelines table (Table 1), below, addresses Reserve Budget cost line items listed in the NUW Reserve Budget in comparison to line items that “should be considered for inclusion in a reserve budget” according to the California Department of Real Estate. With this comparison, line items currently not included can be confirmed to be either not relevant because of the Project configuration, or cost categories are expected to be covered by homeowners, independent of the HOA, or there are other reasons for those cost categories not being included.

TNDG’s notations on this table required some interpretation by the consultants, and the table also notes that the Clubhouse budget in the Manual, which includes a Reserves line item for which the details are not provided, could be covering some of these line items. Blank cells 5 indicate where TNDG assumes that cost categories have no funds attached. Items that could represent meaningful amounts of funds include roofs and siding/ trim/stucco.

TABLE 1. COST ITEMS RELATIVE TO THE PORTION OF HOA FEES PERTAINING TO THE RESERVE STUDY AND

RESERVE BUDGET FOR THE PROJECT
From Reserve Study Guidelines for Homeowner Association Budgets (TNDG removed certain categories deemed irrelevant) Is line item included in Reserves
Worksheet for Camarillo Springs?
Appendix A. Major Common Area Components Usually Included Awnings and other overhead coverings Shade structure
Benches
Decks, pool and spa (Potentially included in the
Clubhouse budget)
Decks, residential
Equipment, cleaning and maintenance (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Equipment, communication and telephone (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Equipment, entertainment, music/video systems (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Equipment, exercise, recreational, etc. (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Equipment, office (Potentially included in Clubhouse)
Equipment, pool, pumps, motors and filters (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Fences, chainlink, wood, etc. Yes
Floor covering, carpet, tile, vinyl, etc. (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Floor covering, wood replacement and refinishing (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Furnishings, lobby, clubhouse, etc. (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Gates, iron, wood, etc. Yes
HVAC, air conditioning
HVAC, heating systems
Light fixtures, exterior Yes
Light fixtures, interior (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Paint and stain, exterior
Paint and stain, interior common area (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Paving Yes
Retaining wall
Roof
Siding and trim
Solar heating system, pool and spa (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Solar heating system, residential
Spas (Potentially included in Clubhouse)
Streets and drives Yes
Swimming pools (Potentially included in Clubhouse)
Tennis courts, resurfacing (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Vehicles
Water heaters
Appendix B. Major Common Area Components Frequently Overlooked Alarm systems, fire and intrusion
Antennas, satellite dish and other
Drainage systems
6 From Reserve Study Guidelines for Homeowner Association Budgets (TNDG removed certain categories deemed irrelevant) Is line item included in Reserves
Worksheet for Camarillo Springs?
Electrical transformers
Electrical wiring and related fixtures in common area (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Fans, exhaust, garage and other
Fire sprinklers and related equipment (Potentially included in Clubhouse) Fountains
Garage doors and hardware
Garbage enclosures
Gutters and downspouts
Irrigation system, controllers Yes
Irrigation system, piping, valves and sprinkler heads
Kiosks and message/communication centers
Lakes, ponds and waterways
Landscaping, replacement of major trees and plants Yes; and tree trimming Mailboxes and centers Yes
Monitoring system, carbon monoxide
Planter boxes
Plumbing fixtures, exterior
Plumbing, water piping system
Posts, deck, lamp, etc.

Pumps, lakes, ponds and waterways
Racquetball courts
Security gates, gate operator and motor Yes
Sewage ejector equipment Sewer lines
Skylights
Slopes
Stairs
Stucco, sandblasting and resurfacing
Sump pump equipment
Trellises Shade structure
Ventilation systems, garage
Walkways, wood, brick, tile, etc. Yes

HOA fee comparisons

Table 2 summarizes a sample of HOA fees for homeowners associations at Camarillo Springs and also other communities in Camarillo. The table includes average HOA fee figures for the Los Angeles/Long Beach MSA and the state of California, according to Census data. HOA fees for the 11 communities listed range from a high of $518 to a low of $120. The simple average of the 11 is $343.50. According to Census data, the average monthly homeowner/condominium association fee for the Los Angeles/Long Beach MSA is $387.80, and $291.90 for California overall. 7 TABLE 2. HOA FEES IN OTHER HOAS IN CAMARILLO SPRINGS, OTHER COMMUNITIES IN CAMARILLO, AND REGIONAL/STATE AVERAGES Sources: HOA websites; Redfin; Census as noted; TNDG.

Homeowners Association Housing Type Average
Fees Listed Amenities/HOA Responsibilities Units Year
Crosswoods Homeowners Association Townhomes/Condos $518.00Pool, Exercise Course, Greenbelt, Maintenance of Exterior, Ground Maintenance, Other 451 1977
Amberwood Homeowners Association Townhomes/Condos $480.00Pool, Maintains Landscape, Trash Paid 86 1980 The Grove Community Owners Association
(Average of 2 HOA's below) Various $421.33 See below 280 2020 The Grove Community Owners Association Townhomes/Condos $447.67 Pool, Spa, Sport Courts, Recreational Multipurpose Room, Dog Park, Hiking Trails, Club House, Ground Maintenance, Security
210 2020
The Grove Community Owners Association Single Family $395.00 Pool, Spa, Sport Courts, Recreational Multipurpose Room, Dog Park, Hiking Trails, Club House, Ground Maintenance, Security
70 2020
Camarillo Springs (Avg. of 5 HOA's below) Various $298.52 See below 967 Various Camarillo Springs Townhomes (Palmeras) Townhomes/Condos $375.00Pool, Guest Parking, Controlled Access, Gated Community, Hiking Trails, Maintain Landscape 121 1988
Camarillo Miramonte Homeowners
Association Townhomes/Condos $352.67Pool, Guest Parking, Controlled Access, Gated Community, Hiking Trails, Maintain Landscape 218 1988
Camarillo Springs Country Club Village Manufactured
Housing $312.50Pool, Spa, Common RV Parking, Sport Court, Hiking Trails, Club House 261 1981
Tierras at Camarillo Springs Townhomes/Condos $268.67Pool, Guest Parking, Controlled Access, Gated Community, Hiking Trails, Maintain Landscape 73 1989
The Courtyards at Camarillo Springs Townhomes/Condos $258.33Pool, Spa, Playground, Club House 35 2005 The Springs Homeowners' Association Single Family $251.00Pool, Common RV Parking, Spa, Hiking Trails, Recreational Multipurpose Room, Club House, Ground Maintenance 259 1983 Village at the Park - Single Family Homes Single Family $119.64 Pool, Spa, Common RV Parking, Sport Courts, Recreational Multipurpose Room, Hiking Trails, Picnic Area, Playground, Club House, Security Guards
777 2005
LA/Long Beach MSA $387.80
California $291.90
Census AHS 2021 - Average Monthly
Homeowner or Condominium Assoc. Fee

Business Analysis
of the
Camarillo Springs Golf Course in
Camarillo, CA

Prepared For:

City of Camarillo
c/o Natelson Dale Group
P.O. Box 489
Yorba Linda, CA 92885

Prepared By:
501 N. Highway A1a
Jupiter, FL 33477
(561) 744-6006

July 2023

Table of Contents
GENERAL LIMITING CONDITIONS .......................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 2 Introduction and Purpose .................................................................................................... 2 NGF Review – 2019, 2021 and 2023 ............................................................................................ 1 Summary of Camarillo Springs Golf Course ........................................................................ 2 External Environment .......................................................................................................... 3 Proposed Facility and Program Changes ............................................................................ 4 Physical Enhancements ................................................................................................................ 4 Operational Program ..................................................................................................................... 4 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................... 5 NGF Projection Results ................................................................................................................. 5 Summary Statement ........................................................................................................... 6 SUBJECT FACILITY – CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE ............................................ 8 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Facility Review ................................................................... 9 Location, Access and Surrounding Elements ............................................................................... 9 Summary of NGF Findings on Camarillo Springs GC ................................................................. 11 Key Infrastructure Issues and Concerns ..................................................................................... 13 Camarillo Springs GC Capital Investment Considerations .......................................................... 15 Review of Golf Operations .................................................................................................17 Management Contract Review .................................................................................................... 17 Staffing ........................................................................................................................................ 17 Golf Playing Fees ........................................................................................................................ 18 Food and Beverage Operation .................................................................................................... 19 Merchandising ............................................................................................................................. 20 Other Items .................................................................................................................................. 20 Camarillo Springs GC Operational Performance ................................................................21 Rounds Played at Camarillo Springs GC .................................................................................... 21 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Revenue .................................................................................... 22 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Expenses ................................................................................... 23 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Financial Summary .................................................................... 24 Proposed Facility / Program Changes – Camarillo Springs GC ..........................................25 9-Hole Golf Configuration ............................................................................................................ 25 12-Hole Golf Configuration .......................................................................................................... 25 Other Property Features .............................................................................................................. 26 Operational Profile ....................................................................................................................... 26 Schedule and Timing of Proposed Changes ............................................................................... 28 Summary – Camarillo Springs Golf Course ........................................................................29

EXTERNAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE OPERATION OF CAMARILLO SPRINGS GC ......30 Demographics, Economy and Weather ..............................................................................30 Demographic Analysis – Local Permanent Residents ................................................................ 30 Key Economic Factors................................................................................................................. 32 Golf Market Supply and Demand Indicators .......................................................................33 National Golf Industry Overview .................................................................................................. 33 Market Definition – Primary and Secondary Trade Areas ........................................................... 36 Local Golf Demand ...................................................................................................................... 36 Other Demand Drivers................................................................................................................. 37 Local Golf Supply ........................................................................................................................ 37 Golf Course Market Supply / Demand Summary ........................................................................ 38 Local Competitive Golf Market ...........................................................................................38 Competitive Public Access Golf Facilities Map ........................................................................... 38 Summary Information .................................................................................................................. 39 Key Findings – Competitive Golf Market ..................................................................................... 42 12-Hole Golf Facility Discussion .........................................................................................43 Examples of 12-Hole Courses ..................................................................................................... 43 Selected Case Studies – 12-Hole Golf Courses ......................................................................... 43 External Factors Summary .................................................................................................45

ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ......................................................................................................................46 Summary of Camarillo Springs GC Projections ..................................................................46 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – As-Is 18-Hole Course (2023-2027) ................................. 47 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – 12-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) ................................ 50 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – 9-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) .................................. 54 Summary Discussion – NGF Projections ............................................................................57 Limiting Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 58 APPENDICES...........................................................................................................................59 Appendix A – National Rounds Played Report ...................................................................60 Appendix B – Local Demographic, Demand and Supply Data ............................................66 Demographics ............................................................................................................................. 66 Golf Demand ............................................................................................................................... 67 Supply .......................................................................................................................................... 68 Supply-Demand Ratios................................................................................................................ 69 Appendix C – Golf Course Life Cycle .................................................................................70

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC DRAFT Report –– 1 General Limiting Conditions
This report is based on information collected from direct NGF research completed for the City of Camarillo, California and the Camarillo Springs Golf Course in 2019, 2021 and 2023, along with general information and data collected during our previous engagements with various entities in and around Southern California since 2008. The assessment is based on conditions at the time of the analysis (e.g., economic and market conditions) and significant changes in those conditions may affect the relevance of the assessment. National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. (“NGF” or “NGF Consulting”) has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date. Because future events and circumstances, many of which cannot be predicted as of the date of this study, may affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by NGF Consulting that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved.

Although we believe that the expectations in this report are reasonable, any or all of the estimates contained herein could prove to be incorrect. To the extent possible, the NGF has attempted to verify and confirm all estimates and assumptions used in this analysis. However, some assumptions may not materialize because of known or unknown risks and/or unanticipated events. Consequently, actual results achieved by any new golf facility during the period covered by NGF projections may vary from our estimates, and these variations may be material. As such, the National Golf Foundation accepts no liability in relation to the estimates provided herein.

To protect you and other clients, and to assure that the research results of NGF Consulting's work will continue to be accepted as objective and impartial by the business community, it is understood that our fee for the undertaking of this project is in no way dependent upon the specific conclusions reached or the nature of the advice given by us in our report to the City of Camarillo, CA.

Every reasonable effort has been exerted in order that the data contained in the written report reflects the most accurate and timely information possible, and is believed to be reliable.

However, no responsibility will be assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, client's agents, or any other data source used in preparing the report.

The client agrees that the report is not to be used in conjunction with any public or private offering of debt or equity securities or to otherwise induce investment without the prior written consent of NGF Consulting, which may be conditioned upon client agreeing to pay an additional fee in an amount to be reasonably determined by NGF Consulting.

This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and considerations.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC DRAFT Report –– 2 Executive Summary
The following is a summary of significant findings made by the National Golf Foundation in its study of the Camarillo Springs Golf Course. The supporting text and tables are found in the body and appendices of the attached report.

Some items are repeated from the full report.

INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. (“NGF”) was retained by the City of Camarillo (“City”), California via the The Natelson Dale Group (“TNDG”) to assist in evaluating the operational and economic performance of the existing 18-hole Camarillo Springs Golf Course (“Camarillo Springs GC” or “CSGC”) and review the potential impact of changes proposed for this facility.

The City is considering approval of a proposed site plan presented by CSGC ownership to convert the aging golf course into an upgraded golf facility with only 12 holes of golf and an enhanced and expanded clubhouse. The City now requires a strategic review of the existing golf facility (condition and performance), along with an evaluation of the long-term potential of this facility if it were to be modified as proposed, or as a 9-hole golf facility. The following report details findings on the Camarillo Springs GC, with analysis of the physical and economic condition of the club and the market environment in July 2023. Based on these findings, NGF has provided an opinion on the potential for success under two proposed modification plans, either of which appear to have merit and should garner market support, provided the changes are completed with the high-quality conditions and service that is part of the Owner’s proposal.

Camarillo Springs Golf Course is an aging golf facility that includes a regulation-length 18-hole golf course, a driving range and modest clubhouse. The current owner has chosen to operate the facility via management contract with a private vendor (Western Golf Properties) that oversees the day-to-day operation of the facility and responsible for all staffing, maintenance, and marketing of the operation. CSGC was once a popular golf destination for the Ventura County area, hosting a large volume of rounds activity and numerous important golf events and tournaments. However, in recent years, declines in rounds and revenue have led to reductions in maintenance activities leading to poor overall playing conditions, which are reported to still be present in 2023, despite strong activity and revenue in 2020-2022 (Covid golf boom). This, coupled with the poor natural drainage characteristics of the property, has led to an unsustainable golf facility condition (both golf course and clubhouse) that must be improved if this facility is to remain viable as a golf course business.

Of particular interest to the City is a review of the changes proposed by ownership and whether the revised Camarillo Springs GC is viable for the long-term. It is of great concern to the City and the residents of the surrounding community of some 500+ homes that any changes made to the golf course fit with the existing residential community, provide affordable recreation to residents, and can sustain a level of high-quality maintenance to support the value of adjacent residential property. The NGF review in 2019 (and updated in 2021 and 2023) shows a golf course facility in generally poor maintenance condition that is being operated with outdated infrastructure, sub-standard equipment, and a wholly inadequate clubhouse. It appears that the only thing that has allowed the facility to remain open for as long as it has is the efforts and expertise of the professional golf operator, Western Golf Properties, who has managed to keep the facility open and operating despite the physical challenges this site possesses and are documented in this report.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 1 NGF Review – 2019, 2021 and 2023
NGF was retained by the City of Camarillo in 2019, 2021 and 2023 to evaluate the golf club, and to make recommendations on whether changes proposed by ownership will help establish the long-term viability of a golf facility on this site. The NGF project included a thorough review of CSGC on an ‘as-is’ basis, that included an examination of the facility’s operational program and capital needs, with on-site inspection in 2019 and ongoing discussion with the facility operator in 2021 and 2023. It is expected that the results of this NGF study will be used by the City as a guide for the future of the golf course, and to help identify the appropriate mix of golf and golf- related amenities that can be sustained on this property over the next decade and beyond. The review includes an evaluation of the facility as it is presently operated, potential changes that are proposed for the site, and ideas for structural changes that could also be made to help improve overall performance.

The findings and recommendations presented by NGF in this report are based on NGF experience, knowledge of golf industry best practices, and a review of the Camarillo Springs GC facility in 2019, 2021 and 2023. NGF activities completed to date include meetings with City staff, interviews with golf course management and staff, an owner presentation on proposed changes, visits to and profiles of other area golf courses (2019), and a review of operating data provided by Western Golf Properties. The NGF team also completed a comprehensive inspection of the facility and all its components (2019). The key components and issues of this report include:
 Overall condition and operating efficiencies of Camarillo Springs GC, with an estimate of future capital needs.
 Status of the broader Camarillo market area, with focus on external issues that affect public golf operations, including the balance between demand and supply.  A review of changes proposed for CSGC, particularly the merits of shifting from an 18-hole to a 9-hole or 12-hole layout, along with changes to the clubhouse, maintenance facilities and operating program.
 Recommendations on the most appropriate mix of amenities, quality of services, pricing and other “industry best practices” that could be employed at the facility to help improve the operation after changes are completed.  Helping the City understand the expected impact of a surge in golf interest in the last three years as a byproduct of the Covid-19 crisis, coupled with a longer-term trend of declining golf activity may have on the long-term economic potential of CSGC, and to establish reasonable parameters for economic performance over the next five years.

The NGF consulting engagement was managed by Richard B. Singer, Senior Director of Consulting Services, with assistance from Roger Dale of TNDG and NGF Consulting Administrator Jodi Reilly. In addition to meetings with City officials and golf course personnel, the NGF consultant collected materials to aid in understanding the local market area, weather data, other regional public golf operations, and golf operations in general. NGF also collects considerable information and data on the golf industry as a regular part of our organization’s work, and much of this information and data is presented throughout this report.

This executive summary provides an “at-a-glance” summarization of the NGF review, detailing the main findings and NGF recommendations for the Camarillo Springs Golf Course. Additional details and support data can be found in the full body of our report and its appendix.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 2

SUMMARY OF CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE
Camarillo Springs GC is an older 18-hole golf course surrounded by about 500 residential units at the southern end of Camarillo, CA. The facility has a basic mix of amenities and features that are common in the golf industry and can correlate with economic success. However, its current (2023) condition is poor and the property is at risk of failure. A summary of NGF key findings on the CSGC facility and operation include:
 The overall physical condition of the CSGC property appeared to be generally poor and in decline during NGF’s visit in 2019, and little has been done to enhance the property in the four years four years since. In particular, the NGF observed an aging golf facility with much of its basic infrastructure well beyond its expected useful life.

This includes both the golf course playing area and its support facilities (clubhouse, maintenance area, equipment, etc.). As such, if the City wishes to see golf continue at this location, considerable investment in upgrades and modernization is still necessary at CSGC.
 The specific improvements required at CSGC include all areas of basic infrastructure (irrigation, drainage), along with other golf course improvements like turf conditions (greens, tees, fairways, etc.) and clubhouse condition. In all, the NGF is estimating a total of at least $6.8 million in facility upgrades will be required to bring the CSGC to a generally acceptable level of condition and help establish its long-term viability (amount is nearly double the 2019 estimate), plus an additional undetermined amount to satisfy existing debt on the property from previous encumbrances.  CSGC is currently operating with revenues and expenses that have improved dramatically since 2019 due to a mini “golf boom” in 2020-2022. However, despite this revenue improvement, CSGC is still struggling to meet all its expense obligations including the large $640,000 annual debt service requirement. We also note that the improvement appears to be waning, as rounds and revenue peaked in 2021, followed by decline in 2022 and even further decline in the first five months of 2023.

The observed financial condition of CSGC in 2023 is not sustainable and will eventually lead to total system failure and the facility’s inability to earn enough revenue to cover basic expenses.
 Total rounds activity at Camarillo Springs GC is now considerably higher than was observed by NGF in 2019. CSGC was hosting around 32-33,000 total rounds of golf per year in the four years leading up to 2020, but has hosted 42-50,000 rounds each year since 2020, peaking at 52,000 rounds in 2021. Like many golf facilities in the U.S., Camarillo Springs GC saw increase in rounds activity after the Covid pandemic and the availability of golf as one of the few “safe” activities for people to undertake.  The CSGC property is set up well to accommodate some form of facility alteration that would involve a reduction in the number of golf holes and new property available for alternate development. It is expected that the economic proceeds derived from property being transitioned to alternate use would be used to enhance the remaining golf course and clubhouse.
 If undertaken, altering CSGC to a high-quality golf course (9 or 12 holes) that will be more desirable than a poor-quality 18-hole golf course will be beneficial to CSGC and the City of Camarillo. A new regulation-length design (either 9 or 12 holes) will allow golfers to play “all golf shots,” and, with proper promotion, should be able to draw golfers from the same general market as at present. The proposed clubhouse upgrade can produce a strong new profit center, with additional F&B services and banquet space potentially accounting for as much as 30%-40% of total facility revenue (derived from F&B, banquets, parties, and large golf tournaments).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 3

EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
The NGF market analysis shows that while golf is not a particularly important component in the local Camarillo area, there is a contingent of resident and visiting golfers to support area golf courses, and these golfers showed strong demand in the last three years of a mini “covid boom” in golf. Still, despite the improvement in the local golf market since 2020, there are just not enough golfers to fully support all public golf courses in the area. What is needed is some catalyst to develop a new generation of golfers to support local courses, and the changes proposed for CSGC could fit appropriately as an ideal golf player development facility. The NGF has also observed that the other public golf courses in this market are themselves struggling to retain patrons. As such, the NGF has a reasonable expectation that while the market will provide support for continued operation of a public golf facility in Camarillo, sustaining the recent growth is unlikely unless some upgrade is made to CSGC to allow it to differentiate itself in a crowded and competitive golf market. Other key findings from NGF’s market analysis include:
 The overriding trends in the golf industry will present challenges to CSGC in continuing golf course operations. The total number of golfers in Camarillo has declined since 2019 and total spending on golf is declining as well. Similarly, the cost to maintain and operate golf courses had increased (equipment, labor, resources, etc.), leading to a difficult economic environment for golf courses.  The Camarillo area economy is driven by growing employment opportunities and both in-flow and out-flow commuting patterns. The subject CSGC is immediately proximate to key Camarillo economic drivers and the immediate proximity to Highway 101 adds to the potential market draw for the facility. Generating golf from visitors to Camarillo will be key to sustaining golf operations at CSGC, as local resident demand is likely not enough to support operations.  The overall balance between supply and demand for public golf is unfavorable in the Camarillo area. There are far fewer households and golfers available to support each golf course in the market when compared to a national standard. NGF estimates that there are about 2,900 golfers for each course in the local Camarillo market, far fewer than the 4,000 golfers that is the NGF-defined success threshold.  Other competitive golf courses in the market have experienced increased activity in 2020-2021 but have fallen back in 2022-2023. This is evidenced by considerable discounting that is now prevalent in this public golf market compared to NGF reviews in 2019 and 2021. In a longer-term trend, golf has had difficulty in attracting younger players to offset the natural attrition of older players. The changes proposed to make the subject Camarillo Springs a shorter golf course with a reduced time commitment could help to off-set this decline in golf demand.  The amenities at CSGC are clearly inferior to its immediate competitive set of golf courses. These competitive golf courses operate within a varied range of fees, with the subject CSGC in the middle to lower end of public golf courses. The competitive nature of the regional golf market puts constraints on the ability to raise fees, and almost all public golf in this market has a peak fee below $75.  There are two 12-hole golf facilities located within 125 miles of CSGC that offer examples of successful operation with this golf configuration. One of the facilities, Hawk’s landing in Yucca Valley, provides a direct comparable to CSGC with successful economics on a former 18-hole residential golf facility that was closed due to obsolete infrastructure, and then re-opened as a new 12-hole golf course with considerable consumer acceptance.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 4

PROPOSED FACILITY AND PROGRAM CHANGES
Camarillo Springs GC ownership is proposing a significant change to the facility that will alter its basic golf offering while simultaneously enhancing the quality and condition of all amenities. The key changes proposed for CSGC include a reduction from 18 regulation golf holes to either 9 regulation golf holes (a layout common in golf tradition), or 12 regulation golf holes (less common). In addition, clubhouse enhancement and upgrade to all facility infrastructure (irrigation, drainage, plumbing, electrical, maintenance facilities, equipment, etc.) that will address site deficiencies will be completed in either option. The modified golf facility will include the following key elements either configuration:

Physical Enhancements
The revised Camarillo Springs GC should include (in either a 9-hole or 12-hole configuration):
 A regulation-length golf course with flexible design to allow for easy play of 9 or 18 holes (in the 9-H design), or 18, 12, 9 or 6 holes (12-H design). Both configurations are assumed to include a configuration that allows patrons to play 18 holes to a par of 71 or 72 and at least 6,200 yards.
 A golf course with modern features, such as bentgrass greens, multiple tee boxes, high-quality bunkers, interesting topography and full cart paths.  Efficient maintenance, irrigation, and drainage profile.  A high-quality clubhouse facility with a grille operation and some covered outdoor seating, plus banquet space for up to 125 patrons. Modern pro shop and restrooms are also required.
 A new maintenance facility and modern maintenance equipment.

Operational Program
The upgraded CSGC is expected to include the following as part of a new operational program:
 A full staff to manage and oversee operations, with a full-time on-site facility manager (can be PGA pro), F&B manager, GCSAA-accredited superintendent, and marketing professional, plus other appropriate part-time staff.
 Proper tee sheet management to allow a mix of 9, 12 and 18-hole play, keeping in mind that 18-hole players will need to re-play previous holes that must be available to them. Staff will likely find that 18-hole play is easier to accommodate on the 12- hole course than the 9-hole layout.
 A full-service food and beverage operation that will cater primarily to golfers, but also be able to host a strong non-golf restaurant business (from community residents), host community meetings (HOAs, etc.), and large banquets, parties and weddings.  Have at least 60 new electric-powered golf carts available for rental by golfers.  Have a good selection of pro shop merchandise for sale, including apparel, shoes, impulse items and some utility clubs (putters, wedges, etc.).  Continue to offer an annual pass or membership at a comparable rate as present.  Reduce daily golf fees from the current peak rate of $40 to $58 for an 18-hole round with cart to a peak of $46 (w/cart) and other fees between $9 and $36.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 5

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
NGF has prepared a projection based on expected performance in a “normal” environment and the implementation of various alteration plans as described in this review. In this report, NGF has provided a fair estimate of future Camarillo Springs GC performance under three distinct physical configurations:
 18-hole golf course and clubhouse (current configuration);  12-hole golf course and clubhouse; and
 9-hole golf course and clubhouse.

The projections made for CSGC under either of the two upgrade configurations assume the most ideal physical and operational condition. If CSGC is to continue as an 18-hole golf course, it is assumed that no significant upgrade will be completed due to lack of capital. In the completion of any alteration project, the NGF assumes a schedule of improvements with the existing course closing at the end of 2023, remaining closed for renovation in 2024 and then re- opening with a new 9-hole or 12-hole golf course and clubhouse in January 2025. If the facility remains as is, the NGF assumes the course is open through the entire five-year period.

NGF Projection Results
The results of the NGF financial projection analysis show that some form of renovation is needed to enable Camarillo Springs GC to meet all its fiscal obligations and provide a level of long-term sustainability with future capital reserves. The analysis shows that renovation to either a 9-hole or 12-hole golf course will be a major improvement from the existing 18-hole layout, but only the 12-hole option provides a chance for real profitability on the Camarillo Springs GC operation. The improvement is largely driven by new revenue opportunities, having the capital to address failing infrastructure and the elimination of over $640,000 per year in debt service.

The projections developed for this review show that even with the improvement CSGC achieved in the last three years (2020-2023), continuing as an 18-hole golf course without addressing key infrastructure challenges will only delay the inevitable system failure. With growth to over 52,000 rounds in the Covid-19 environment of 2021, CSGC was still not able to cover all its obligations or set aside funds to address aging and failing basic systems. We also note that despite the “spike” in activity and revenue in 2021, CSGC rounds and revenue have fallen back in 2022 and 2023 to a level that appears to be higher than in 2018 and 2019 but not at the level of 2020 and 2021. The NGF does not see any scenario where CSGC can sustain its operation without some new influx of at least $6.8 million to correct ongoing systemic problems with the golf course and clubhouse.

The NGF financial projection analysis shows that the completion of proposed improvements should allow Camarillo Springs GC to improve operations and generate total revenue in the range of $1.62 million (9-H) to $2.25 million (12-H) by 2027. In review of NGF estimates, it is clear that the 12-hole option provides better economic return when the two renovation options are compared. This is due to the increased capacity in the 12-hole option and the ability to sell a wide variety of 18, 12, 9 and 6-hole rounds. The NGF has chosen to present our estimates in a conservative fashion to provide a base level of projection for decision-making purposes and for comparison to potential opportunities. A summary of the three scenarios estimated by NGF for 2025 and 2027 are presented in the table on the next page:

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 6 Comparative Projected Cash Flow by Configuration
Camarillo Springs Golf Course (2025 & 2027)
18-H As-Is 9-H Option 12-H Option
2025 2027 2025 2027 2025 2027
Total Rounds 36,000 33,000 32,900 36,200 37,500 42,500

Total Facility Revenue $1,621,500 $1,567,700 $1,304,900 $1,620,900 $1,805,800 $2,250,600 Less:

Total COS $76,700 $73,800 $139,000 $160,700 $172,500 $205,400 Total Operating Exp. $1,697,800 $1,854,900 $1,501,000 $1,641,700 $1,650,000 $1,803,200 Operating Income (Loss) ($153,000) ($361,000) ($335,100) ($181,500) ($16,700) $242,000 Other Obligations $704,900 $710,200 $64,900 $70,200 $64,900 $70,200 Net Income (Loss) ($857,900) ($1,071,200) ($400,000) ($251,700) ($81,600) $171,800 The NGF projections for future performance come after a period of continued operation on 18 holes with no upgrade in 2023, complete closure of the facility for renovation in 2024, and re- opening with all elements completed in early 2025. However, we do expect that a large part of the projected growth in income will come from clubhouse operations with 2025 the first full year with a completed and modernized clubhouse. We also note that neither NGF nor TNDG has independently verified the economics of the proposed real estate deal for the CSGC property, and we have assumed that income from the sale of residential property in a renovated CSGC would be sufficient to support new golf investment and the retirement of previous debt.

SUMMARY STATEMENT
Camarillo Springs GC is an aging golf facility that had been experiencing declining participation but gained a significant boost with a surge in golf interest in the last 2-3 years, although this too may be waning. Despite the increase in activity and revenue in 2020-2022 the facility still has an urgent need for new capital investment to enhance the golf course and clubhouse. Without this new investment, it is not likely that the CSGC facility can earn the revenue it needs to sustain itself for the longer term, and thus the NGF does not see this as a viable golf facility business enterprise in its current condition. Some form of external capital funding is needed, and the concept proposed by the facility owners appears to meet what is needed to create long-term sustainability at CSGC.

While the concept of a high-quality 12-hole regulation golf course and enhanced clubhouse is not common in golf, the NGF has every expectation that this concept, if produced to the level of quality that is proposed, should generate activity and revenue that may not surpass a high- quality 18-hole course, but will far exceed the clearly broken CSGC facility as currently configured and operated. With the additional new revenue sources expected from an enhanced clubhouse, it is very possible that the renovated CSGC can exceed current performance levels and earn enough revenue to cover expenses and save for future replacement. Still, despite this expected improvement, the facility’s revenue will not be sufficient to cover the large-scale capital investment needed to construct the new course and clubhouse, so that capital will have to come from another source, most likely the proposed alternate uses of former golf property.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report –– 7 In summary, NGF believes that the Owner’s proposal to convert the existing 18-hole Camarillo Springs GC into a 12-hole golf facility is viable, and it is reasonable for the City of Camarillo to expect that the facility to provide a sustainable golf business enterprise should the following primary conditions be met:

1. The 12-hole golf course must be of high quality and include appealing golf features commonly associated with “championship” golf (greens, tees, topography, turf, bunkers, etc.).

2. The new 12-hole course must be designed in such a way to allow for both 12 and 18- hole rounds to be convenient and at a “regulation” length, par and slope rating.

3. The new facility must be operated with strong attention to detail and high-quality service. Facility management must be mindful of tee-sheet planning and allow for an appropriate mix of 12-hole and 18-hole rounds to be accommodated.

4. The new facility must include a high-quality clubhouse with modern and attractive features, clean restrooms, multiple F&B venues and banquet space for around 125+/- patrons.

5. Operators must actively market and promote the facility using all modern means (website, email, social media, etc.), and include an active tournament and event calendar (City 12-hole championship, grand re-opening, leagues, charity events, etc.) and an active banquet calendar (weddings, parties, luncheons, etc.).

6. Commit to a new focus on attracting less-traditional segments into golf (women, kids, minorities, etc.) through enhanced player development programming.

7. There must be no debt service tied to the facility operation and all capital required to complete the improvements are from an outside source.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 8 Subject Facility – Camarillo Springs Golf
Course
The subject property is the Camarillo Springs Golf Course (“Camarillo Springs GC” or “CSGC”), a golf course facility owned by New Urban West (“owner”) and operated via management agreement with Western Golf Properties (“Western Golf”), a well-known national golf management entity based in California. The facility includes a championship 18-hole golf course, along with other support amenities that are common to golf facilities such as a clubhouse, driving range, cart storage and golf maintenance compound. The facility is located on approximately 120+ acres, divided over three separate parcels, all within five miles of downtown Camarillo at the southeastern edge of the City, and within a large master-planned community that includes some 510 residential units (single-family, townhomes and manufactured homes). The golf facility was originally developed in 1962 as an amenity to the surrounding golf community and has gone through several ownership changes in its 60-year history, including an ownership change in 2017 and temporary closure for 2.5 months in 2020 due to Covid-19. The golf facility is operated as a public-access golf course in Camarillo, available for use by any golfer on a daily fee basis only, as a previous use of seasonal pre-paid green fees (membership) has been discontinued.

Camarillo Springs GC includes a mix of amenities that is common in public golf and can correlate well with economic success. However, the condition of the property at the time of the NGF review in 2019 was not ideal for many reasons, including aging and declining infrastructure and limited operating budget. None of these issues has been addressed in any meaningful way since 2019 so NGF has assumed that conditions observed in 2019 remain in 2023. This less-than-ideal property condition includes both the golf course playing area and the clubhouse building, both of which still require new investment to bring the facility to a more sustainable level of operation. It appears that this neighborhood golf facility is serving the basic needs of golf demand among local Camarillo Springs residents and a few additional golfers visiting the Camarillo area, and although this demand has grown in the last three years, it still does appear sufficient to generate the level of revenue needed to cover all required expenses, and thus some enhancement is needed to expand the market draw for the facility.

Performance reports provided to NGF show that Camarillo Springs GC generated approximately $2.25 million in total revenue in 2021, mostly derived from daily golf fees, cart fees, memberships and the sale of various food, beverage, and merchandise items. This amount represents a peak of performance, as total revenue fell to $1.86 million in 2022 (17.3% decline). The Covid-19 crisis and its positive impact on golf has helped this facility grow to new levels of performance, as total revenue was recorded to be around $1.2 million in both 2018 and 2019. The new highs in total revenue achieved in 2021 and 2022 have been reached despite a sub-standard golf course condition and much of the former clubhouse operation shut down entirely (CSGC no longer operates a full restaurant on site).

The total expenses required to operate the facility on a day-to-day basis totaled about $1.5 million in 2021 and 2022, but the club did have a large expense associated with pond improvements on site that added some $1.5+/- million to the site expenses over two years. The improvement in revenue in 2021 and 2022 has allowed CSGC owners to enhance the facility maintenance expenditures, but the money required to complete the above-noted pond project has limited the full effect of a larger maintenance budget. In addition to basic expenses, the owners report a $640,000 annual debt service requirement that results in the Camarillo Springs GC operating at a loss of over ($450,000) in 2021, despite the record high in revenue. Although this net income did improve

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 9 in 2022, the facility still reported a loss of ($252,000) in 2022 after all expenses. This current financial condition of operating losses on golf operations is comparable to most public golf operations in this part of the U.S. when only on-site revenue and expense is considered, where margins on golf operations tend to be very low with little net revenue available to cover capital and debt service.

In our review of the Camarillo Springs GC, NGF Consulting found a public golf course that could potentially provide a level of good quality and affordable recreation to Camarillo golfers and visitors, but the current operating and economic structure of the facility is limiting its maintenance requirements and revenue potential. While the facility did show real growth and attract strong activity in 2020-2022, the facility still has significant deferred capital needs that will require new investment in order to keep this facility open and operating as a viable public golf business. Absent this new investment, it is likely that the physical condition of the facility will continue to deteriorate to a point where rescue is no longer possible, thus any program of facility change that provides for new investment in basic golf course infrastructure and clubhouse improvement would be welcome.

CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE FACILITY REVIEW
Camarillo Springs GC is an older golf course facility with a rich history and a location fully within a defined Camarillo Springs residential development. The facility has primarily served the golfing needs of residents in this community, but support has also come from other area golfers over the years. Owner reports and review of data shows that demand for CSGC has experienced a strong rebound since 2020 after many years of decline. The rounds and revenue generated in 2018 and 2019 were not sufficient to sustain operations at an adequate level, but actual performance in 2021 was the strongest in many decades for CSGC. The improvement during Covid-19 in 2020 shows the potential is there, but even with this dramatic increase in rounds and revenue, the club was still not able to meet all its operating obligations (including the large debt service) and could only contribute a portion of funds for completion of capital improvement projects.

The facility includes an 18-hole golf course with championship length, a golf support service building (clubhouse), and somewhat older and inadequate maintenance facilities. Still, Camarillo Springs provides an appealing golf course design and basic facility amenities that could support a consistently higher volume of play if the facility condition was adequate. However, its observed condition in 2019 and reported condition in 2023 show that substantial capital is needed to bring the facility to a level of quality needed to attract an adequate number of golfers on a more consistent basis.

This golf facility is popular among a select group of local golfers who find the layout appealing and the affordable price a good match. Of particular concern for NGF are large-scale infrastructure projects that will be needed at this site in order for the course to remain open, all while operating in a competitive market with several alternatives for golf service, meaning that attraction of non-local visitor play will be key to the long-term future of the CSGC. As such, the CSGC ownership will have to weigh the investment required to bring CSGC to an acceptable level so as to attract this out-of-town golfing contingent and consider any and all reconfiguration options that may allow for new capital to be raised to complete the upgrades required to remain competitive.

Location, Access and Surrounding Elements
CSGC is located within the Camarillo Springs development and immediately proximate to the Highway 101 interchange with Camarillo Springs Rd. The facility is accessed via the entrance on Camarillo Springs Rd., about ¼-mile from the Highway 101 interchange, and less than four miles from downtown Camarillo. The site also places the golf course in a less-populated valley section of the area between Camarillo and Thousand Oaks, the outskirts of which are only about three miles

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 10 away in either direction. Overall, the immediate area surrounding Camarillo Springs GC is characterized by the general residential character that defines Camarillo, but with low density and volume. The implication for the golf course is that CSGC must be able to attract non-local golfers to the course to generate ideal activity and rounds. Camarillo Springs GC has about 150+/- total parking spaces, comparable to the NGF-recommended 144 spaces per 18 holes.

Site Positives
 Access: The CSGC location is immediately proximate to, and convenient from, most of the dense residential areas in the Camarillo – Thousand Oaks corridor, and the facility is close to Highway 101 (132,000 autos per day on Hwy. 101 at Camarillo Springs Rd).  Visual Appeal: The site has outstanding visual appeal, which leads to positive feedback from golfers and provides a high degree of inherent potential for improvement.

Site Negative
 Topography: The negative aspect of the CSGC location relates to topography and drainage, with several low-lying sections in key areas of the golf course design. In addition, the golf course serves as a drainage corridor for adjacent homes and the run- off from nearby mountains.
 Site: With about 120 total acres and three distinct parcels, this facility is just large enough to support the existing 18-hole golf course but limits modification options that can sustain a full championship 18-hole course along with new residential elements.

Aerial View – Camarillo Springs GC
Google Earth image showing Camarillo Springs GC and its direct surrounding elements. This view shows the three distinct parcels and the direct frontage on the golf course of residential units in the central and eastern parcels. The facility is very close to an interchange with Highway 101, possibly enhancing its market draw potential.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 11 Detail View – Camarillo Springs GC Clubhouse, Range and Parking Google Earth image showing the CSGC clubhouse, range and parking. The small size of the overall site forces compression of these elements, thus limiting parking and requiring netting around the driving range to protect surrounding golf holes. This updated view also shows the recent improvements made to the pond located northeast of the range.

Summary of NGF Findings on Camarillo Springs GC
Camarillo Springs GC was originally developed as an amenity to support new residential development in this part of Camarillo in the early 1960s. The basic golf design and layout has remained mostly intact since this time, but several improvements were made during a period when the property was leased to American Golf Corporation in the 1980s. It is reported to NGF that this course had been under-performing on rounds and revenue for many years prior to 2019, although could not be verified as proper historical operating data on rounds played and revenue was not available. The key decision for ownership in 2023 relates to new investment required to bring this facility back to a quality level that would enhance the market appeal, and whether this investment is warranted given the local market realities. The clubhouse is original to the initial development of the property and was in poor condition in 2019, and no new investment has been made since that time. The building includes space for a small pro shop, snack bar, restaurant, a bar, cart storage and restrooms, all of which have deteriorated past their usefulness and appeal, especially related to F&B service as the restaurant and bar area have been closed since 2020.

Golf Course
Camarillo Springs GC includes a core golf course in three distinct sections, all combining for a park-style layout with some minor visual intrusion from adjacent residences. Most of the front-nine holes is played in the 26-27-acre western parcel that is in the most scenic area of the course with no adjacent residences. The holes #7-11 loop includes three holes (#8-#10) on the 16.5-acre parcel east of Camarillo Springs Rd. As such, the course does not have the 9th green and the 10th tee close to the clubhouse (not ideal for a public golf course). The remaining holes #12-18 are on the main center section of property, which also includes some of the most problematic soil and turf conditions in areas closes to the property’s north boundary and Ridge View St.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 12 Total golf course yardage is appropriate for a championship 18-hole course, but the existing front-9 and back-9’s do not match for par or yardage. Although CSGC includes a course that plays to the standard par of 72, the front-nine includes shorter length and a par of 35 (par-36 is standard), while the back-nine is much longer and plays to a par of 37. This is the result of an extra par-3 hole on the front-nine, leaving a total of five par-3 holes on the full 18-hole course (four is standard). To make up, there are three par-5 holes on the back-9, leaving a total of five par-5’s on the course (four is standard). This mis-match of nines is a minor problem, mostly for golfers seeking to only play and compete on nine holes.

Portions of the course appear to be good for golfers wishing to walk, but more severe hills are present in the middle of the current sequence of holes (holes #2-#6). The course features ample tree-lined fairways and small challenging greens. Amenities include a putting green, a chipping green and a full driving range, although this range must provide nets to protect surrounding golf holes from flying range balls due to the smaller overall site footprint. The course is rugged but has an interesting variety that takes full advantage of the property. There is a lot of “back and forth” on this course, and there are several sequences of parallel golf holes. There is some compression of holes in tight spaces, including the area around holes #1, #7 and #11 (all close to the clubhouse), holes #8-10 in the smaller eastern parcel, and again in the area close to holes #12-13 and the driving range. In all, this is a somewhat awkward configuration for regulation golf, but it can be overcome with appropriate management and oversight that will always be required for a course like this to run efficiently.

Basic Existing Conditions Review
Previous NGF consulting engagements included a physical review of all elements associated with the Camarillo Springs GC completed in 2019. The property owners and operator report that no significant change has been made to the property since this last inspection, and thus NGF has assumed that the basic characteristics documented previously, remain in 2023. The primary areas of NGF review, our understanding of basic conditions and an estimated cost to correct for each element is summarized below (2023 cost estimates included):
 Global Turf Conditions: The golf course turfgrass includes a mix of grass types, with mostly Kikuyu and Bermuda in the fairways and a mix of Rye/Bluegrass in the roughs.

The overall turf conditions are generally good, but with some areas showing stress due to irrigation limitations and drainage issues (more below). These concerns could be improved significantly with improvements to irrigation and drainage.  Greens: The existing greens average around 4,000-4,500 square feet (sf) in size, which is relatively small for a regulation golf course, but also minimizes the maintenance requirement. Staff reports that poor conditions in early 2020 lead to a full resurfacing before the course re-opened after the Covid-19 shutdown in June 2020.

While this upgrade is reported to have provided acceptable conditions for golfers temporarily, it is not a permanent solution to address age and the need to upgrade to more modern greens that would be beneficial to activity and revenue.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 13  Tees: The existing tees are well located but small in size. Each hole has at least two separate tee boxes and the tees are generally rectangular in shape and are adequate but uninspiring. The condition of the tee surfaces was old and worn, and at a minimum will need to be leveled and resurfaced with a sand cap to provide proper conditions.

Additionally, we recommend new forward tees should be added to provide a shorter golf course and better accommodate the less-skilled players. The course would benefit from improvements to the teeing areas.
 Cart Paths: The existing cart path system had several areas of clear damage in 2019 that was documented by NGF. No investment in cart path improvement or repair was reported by the operator in 2023. Poor cart paths can be uncomfortable for golfers and add wear and tear to golf carts. A good cart path system in better condition can allow carts on the course more often, even after excessive rainfall.  Bunkers: There are a total of 40 sand bunkers on GSGC, at least one bunker on every hole and six (6) bunkers on the long par-5 hole #4. The bunkers are a nice added feature to the golf course and serve a purpose to add more challenge to the game. In general, the bunkers were not in ideal condition due to many factors, including poor drainage and damaged sand. The poor condition of the bunkers results in negative golf experience response from golfers, and a bunker renovation project should be considered for this course.
 Driving Range: The driving range at CSGC is small but seems to effectively serve the needs of the facility. The range includes 20-25 tee stations on the rear concrete pad with hitting turf mats, and all activity continues to be from these mats even though golfers tend to prefer the ability to hit off grass. The range is only 225 yards long and 80 yards wide, which is small by modern standards, as many golfers can hit farther than 225 yards. As such, some form of 60-foot netting around the range will always be required. Range baskets are obtained from the pro shop, which can also serve to limit range activity (as opposed to an automated range dispenser). The automated system is preferred by both golfers and range operators as easier to use, and it also provides better revenue opportunity.
 Other Practice Amenities: CSGC also includes very modest practice amenities with a small chipping area and a practice putting green. The variety of practice amenities at CSGC have appeal for both beginners and seasoned players, and fit well to support vibrant lesson and junior golf programming.

Key Infrastructure Issues and Concerns
 Irrigation: The NGF has previously documented that the irrigation system is original to 1962, has had only modest (above ground) upgrades to the system and no further enhancement since 2019. The key issues documented previously remain in 2023, as the course has limited irrigation storage capacity, inadequate pressure in the system and is forcing staff to spend extra time addressing irrigation problems (line breaks, damaged heads, etc.), thus taking time away from other maintenance activities. Water for the irrigation system comes primarily from on-course run-off and storage in ponds on property. There is a well near hole #4 that provides back-up, but the pump system was not functioning properly in 2019 and staff reports no change in the situation in 2023.

This course can function with this system during wetter periods when nature can irrigate the course but continues to be highly problematic during other times when additional irrigation is required. It does appear to NGF that a full irrigation system replacement is required to provide the highest quality golf conditions and prevent a total system failure that could force shutdown of the golf course.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 14  Drainage: The overall drainage profile of Camarillo Springs GC presents two issues to challenge golf course operations – on-course drainage limitations that affect turf health, and creek/run-off related drainage that runs under Camarillo Springs Rd near the clubhouse that impacts access to the eastern parcel of the course and use of the tunnel connector. The NGF did not notice any subsurface drainage on the course, meaning that everything surface drains to the lowest point on the course. In the primary (center) section of the course, this is toward ponds that are generally adequate to handle the volume. In the eastern and western out-parcels there are significant drainage concerns that impact both cart use and access (mostly on eastern parcel) and is affecting the health of lower-lying turf areas (mostly on western parcel). The NGF continues to believe that drainage enhancement is required to provide the highest quality golf conditions and maximize activity potential on this golf course.  Holes #12-13: In 2019 and 2020, Camarillo Springs GC was experiencing challenges related to the pond on hole #12 that forced a shortening of the hole and creation of a new tee. The pond that defines the hole was damaged due to a reported oil leak, which led to other damages in and around the hole (and the next tee), all of which required extensive renovation and repair that was completed in 2022 at a cost of nearly $1.5 million. Completion of this project should improve playing conditions and appeal, but it has not yet fully restored all tee areas and hole corridors to their original positions.  Homes on Course: There are several areas on the CSGC where adjacent residences have direct frontage to the golf course. This has impact in both the play of golf and the value of these residences (both market and taxable value). The impact includes three primary areas: (1) direct frontage along the south boundary on holes #7-9; (2) A large segment of homes along Margarita that front holes #15, #18 and #1 green; and (3) the newer townhomes on the north side of hole #10.

Clubhouse and Other Structures/Facilities/Amenities
 Clubhouse: The clubhouse at Camarillo Springs GC includes a mix of three separate (but interconnected) buildings, that combine for a total of about 14,000sf in support of the golf course operation. In 2019, all of these structures showed signs of decline, structural deficiencies, HVAC challenges and poor appearance. None of the deficiencies have been addressed in the last four years. The three sections of the CSGC clubhouse include:
 Pro Shop + Offices - The Pro Shop building includes about 4,300sf with an open floor plan that provides initial check-in and open retail space. There is additional space for offices of golf operations staff. At the time of the NGF review, the space was mostly void with limited merchandise for sale.  Bar + Restaurant - Camarillo Springs GC includes a small snack bar, bar and kitchen area in about 3,200sf. The basic design includes seating for about 50-60 patrons but can be expanded to over 100 for banquets and parties. The kitchen area is small for this level of service and will need to be expanded if the facility is to host larger events. The basic condition of the F&B area has deteriorated to the point where CSGC is no longer offering an indoor restaurant or bar. All restrooms are outside the building, including small locker rooms to the front (actually part of the cart storage building) and small restrooms in the alley between the pro shop and F&B building.

Restrooms were not in good condition in 2019 and have not been upgraded as of 2023.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 15  Cart Storage – The largest support building is the 7,300sf building to store and charge up to 75-80 electric golf carts. This building is properly located for operating efficiency and has ample space for cart storage and attached men’s and women’s’ locker rooms.
 Clubhouse Condition: The condition and appearance of the clubhouse facility clearly detracts from the overall presentation of Camarillo Springs and will remain a factor in limiting continued rounds and revenue performance. The problems observed by NGF are obvious to patrons and include both condition and functionality concerns in basic systems (HVAC, plumbing, electrical), and are present in both the interior and exterior of the facility. Improvement in clubhouse function and condition would go a long way to help improve the activity and economics of CSGC, as the clubhouse provides both direct (F&B, retail, banquets, etc.) revenue and indirect (help grow rounds) revenue.  Maintenance Facility: The maintenance facility is located on a one-acre site at the northwest corner of the facility and includes three separate buildings that all appeared to be in poor condition in 2019 with no improvement reported. The facilities do not provide adequate space to house the equipment and some items must be stored outside. The other areas needed for necessary functions (repair shop, etc.) are small and inefficient for a successful golf operation. The yard includes a 2,100sf barn for storing equipment and a 1,200sf barn for chemical (and other) storage). The main 1,800sf building includes some additional storage and employee work areas.  Maintenance Equipment: The maintenance equipment used to maintain CSGC remains older and in generally poor condition. Little new investment in equipment has been made other than the most basic and minimal requirements to sustain the operation. The operator reports that CSGC continues to employ a mechanic to provide repair services to keep aging equipment operating. Although CSGC seems to have the minimum of what is needed to maintain the course, there is still no back-up equipment to cover broken pieces or when replacement parts for older equipment cannot be found.

CSGC continues to need newer maintenance equipment in order to provide adequate maintenance conditions on the golf course.
 On-Course Services: CSGC includes two on-course restrooms / drinking fountains), located at the entrance to the western parcel (by holes #2 + #6), and again near the #15 tee. With the clubhouse proximity to other areas, this spacing provides good coverage for golfers not having to go much beyond four or five holes between stations.

Camarillo Springs GC Capital Investment Considerations
In previous reports on CSGC, NGF has provided our estimate of the cost to complete upgrades to the deficiencies noted above and allow the facility to remain competitive as an 18-hole public golf course and sustain the activity achieved since 2020. Although numerous items are referenced for repair / replacement in the long term, outlined below are the items that are recommended high priority capital expenditures that are required to keep this facility functioning properly as a golf course, and would also improve the facility’s competitiveness in the marketplace:
 Irrigation System and Pump House: The addition of a new irrigation system to replace the outdated and mostly broken system in place should be a high priority at CSGC (Note: see the ASGCA Life Cycle chart Appendix C for the anticipated life span of an irrigation system). NGF has documented considerable inflation in golf course irrigation system replacement since 2020 and our estimates consider the separation between three distinct parcels. NGF estimated cost = $3.0 to $3.6 million ($25- $30,000 per acre for 120 acres).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 16  Drainage: Additional surface/subsurface drainage is needed to enhance the quality of the playing surface on the golf course. In addition, the tunnel under Camarillo Springs Rd needs to be improved with drainage channels and piping. Any new on-course drainage may include expansion of the retention lake, siphon system and 4”, 6”, 8” and 12” piping. NGF estimated cost = $800,000 to $950,000 (lump sum).  Camarillo Springs GC Greens – A program to re-build all 19 (including practice green) greens to USGA specifications. Costs include seed, fertilizer, sod and improvement to erosion control. NGF estimated cost = $495,000-$550,000 (110,000sf @ $7.00- $7.50/sf).
 Fairway / Rough Re-surfacing: A program to improve the fairway and rough turfgrass in conjunction with drainage improvements noted above. NGF estimated cost = $200,000 to $250,000 (Lump Sum).
 Tee Improvements / New Forward Tees: Improvement of tee boxes include soil enhancements, leveling, alignment and the addition of new tees (especially a new forward tee). All of the 40,000+/- sf of tees need to be enhanced, plus an additional 15,000sf of new tees added. The unit price for this level of improvement is higher than other re-surfacing, or about $3.00 to $4.00 per square foot. NGF estimated cost = $165,000 to $220,000 (55,000sf @ $3-$4/sf).
 Cart Paths: The golf course has full cart paths with some areas that need improvement (re-surfacing). The cart path improvements will direct traffic and minimize wear and tear to green and tee surrounds. NGF estimated cost = $160,000 to $200,000 (8,000lf @ $20-$25/lf).
 Bunkers: Renovation and/or restoration of 40 bunkers should be implemented to enhance the aesthetics, challenge and overall golf experience. The unit price for this is about $5-$6,000 per bunker and assumes new lining and sand. NGF estimated cost = $200,000 to $240,000 (40 bunkers @ $5-$6,000/bunker).
 On-Course Services: The course needs improvement to the on-course restrooms and other shelters and drinking stations. NGF estimated cost = $30,000 to $40,000 (lump sum for repairs).
 Clubhouse: The property’s service support building must be improved or replaced, fixing obvious structural and systems deficiencies. This will require a full gutting and replacement on its existing frame with the same amenities and space allocation. This estimates assumed the lowest level of improvement to flooring, ceilings/roof, HVAC, electric, plumbing, kitchen equipment, and restrooms. NGF estimated cost = $1,400,000 to $2,100,000 (based on 14,000sf @ $100 to $150/sf).  Maintenance Facility: Basic repairs and upgrades to the 6,000sf maintenance facility.

NGF estimated cost = $120,000 to $180,000 (6,000sf @ $20-$30/sf).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 17 Camarillo Springs GC
NGF Recommended Upgrades – by Type
High Priority Capital Investments Inputs Low Estimate High Estimate Irrigation System and Pump House $25-$30,000/Ac for 120 acres $3,000,000 $3,600,000 Drainage
Additional surface/subsurface drainage to
enhance the quality of the playing surface -
may include new siphon system and 4”, 6”,
8” and 12” piping
800,000 950,000
Camarillo Springs GC Greens 110,000sf @ $7.00 to $7.50/sf for USGA greens 770,000 825,000
Fairway / Rough Resurfacing Lump Sum 200,000 250,000
Tee Improvements / New Tees 55,000sf @ $3-$4/sf 165,000 220,000 Cart Paths 8,000lf at $20-$25/lf 160,000 200,000
Bunker Renovation / Restoration 40 Bunkers at $5-$6,000 / bunker 200,000 240,000 On-Course Services Lump Sum 30,000 40,000
Clubhouse Enhancement 14,000sf @ $100-$150/sf $1,400,000 $2,100,000 Maintenance Facility 6,000sf @ $20-$30/sf 120,000 180,000 Grand Total of Capital Projects (all High Priority) $6,845,000 $8,605,000 All figures are NGF Consulting estimates based on architect’s input and other similar projects completed in the region in the last 3 years that have been provided to allow for preliminary planning. These amounts may or may not reflect actual costs for Camarillo, and the City should engage appropriate research to cost out specific projects. cy= Cubic Yard; lf = linear feet; sf= Square Feet; Ac = Acre

REVIEW OF GOLF OPERATIONS
In the following section, the NGF provides a review of key areas of the CSGC operation, including management, staffing, technology, fees, ancillary centers, organized activities, marketing and other issues key to the future of the operation.

Management Contract Review
The current owner has a fee-for-service management contract in place with Western Golf Properties, a nationally known golf management entity headquartered in Lake Forest, CA. Western Golf is a leader in golf management and operations, with more than 100 golf courses under management in the U.S. and 35 in California. Western Golf began management of the Camarillo Springs GC in October of 2017, had left the property briefly in 2020 and returned to operate under a current “year-to-year” agreement to manage the Camarillo Springs GC for a fixed fee of $7,000 per month ($84,000 per year).

Staffing
All staff at CSGC are employed directly by Western Golf Properties, and the club is operating with a lean staff as reported to NGF, but a large crew of full-time employees. CSGC reports having 11 full-time employees and upwards of 5+ additional part-time positions, with some seasonal variation. The current senior management positions at CSGC include:

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 18  Facility Manager / Director of Golf – The on-site manager is a golf professional and this position provides senior management oversight for the golf course and maintenance operation, as well as the F&B operation.
 Grounds Superintendent: Maintenance for the golf course is overseen by the Golf Superintendent. This position is also full-time with benefits.  Food and Beverage Manager: Manages the F&B operation at CSGC, with focus on “front of house” operations and customer service.

The basic staffing for CSGC includes the positions shown below. Full-time (FT) positions include salary and benefits, with additional positions filled by part-time (PT) or hourly staff:

General & Admin. Positions Pro Shop / Operations Positions General Manager (FT) Assistant Professionals (1 – PT)
Pro Shop Attendants (2 – PT)
Food & Beverage / Concessions Golf Course Maintenance (Incl. PR) F&B Manager (FT) Grounds Superintendent (FT)
Staff (2 – PT) Asst. Superintendent/Mechanic (FT)
Greenkeepers (7 - FT)
Staffing Summary
The NGF data shows the Camarillo Springs GC to be operated with a staff that is much smaller than the national average for a public golf course, with CSGC providing golf maintenance with fewer “bodies” than is typical for a public golf course and all are full-time. While there are no industry standards that can be referenced to determine the appropriate staffing levels for a golf operation, the industry averages are presented below. The size of the staff needed for a particular golf operation depends on several factors, including budget considerations. Personnel costs typically represent the largest single expense item in a golf operation, as is the case for Camarillo Springs. The NGF data on public golf operations in 2022 show averages for full-time staffing at 18-hole public golf courses nationwide (table below).

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Total Facility Identified Staffing – 2022
Facility Operations Staff
(FT / PT) *
Maintenance
Staff (FT / PT)
Total Staff
(FT / PT)
Camarillo Springs GC (9-H) 2.0 / 5.0 9.0 / 0.0 11.0 / 5.0 Industry “Standards” (per 18 holes)
Total U.S. Average 4.0 / 12.0 4.0 / 9.0 8.0 / 21.0
* The national standard for operations staff includes administration and F&B.

Golf Playing Fees
Daily Green Fees
The table below provides a summary of Camarillo Springs fees in 2023. CSGC offers a simple golf fee program, with posted or ‘rack’ rates broken down by weekday/weekend and additional discounts for seniors and twilight (after 12:30 or 2:30 pm). As we will show in our competitive review (next chapter), NGF believes that CSGC’s rack rates are near the upper end for this market area, which may be too high given the overall quality of the golf course product.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 19 Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Green Fee Rates
Monday-Friday Walking with Cart
Regular $30.00 $46.00
Senior* $26.00 $42.00
Public Safety $26.00 $42.00
Junior $20/$17>1p/$10>3p N/A
Twilight >12:30 / >2:30 $24.00 / $15.00 $37.00 / $25.00 Saturday-Sunday Walking with Cart
Regular $45.00 $58.00
Senior* $40.00 $53.00
Public Safety $40.00 $53.00
Junior $20/$17>1p/$10>3p N/A
Twilight >12:30 / >2:30 $34.00 / $22.00 $47.00 / $32.00 Range Prices
Small / Med. / Large Bucket $3.00 / $6.00 / $10
Monthly Unlimited Range Pass $89.00
*CSGC also offers a senior card rate with $6 (weekdays) and $7 discount weekend w/ purchase of $50 senior card.

Annual Golf Membership Fees
CSGC offers an annual pass program that entitles holders to pre-paid green fees, which includes unlimited golf, carts and range balls. The annual pass costs the consumer $3,120/year (or $260/month) for an individual, and $1,640/year ($137/month) for each additional family member.

The club reports a total of 30 annual pass holders in 2023, all of whom reside in the City of Camarillo and about half of whom reside within the Camarillo Springs community (about 4% penetration in surrounding community). The CSGC passholders are active and comprise a lot of rounds activity in the golf leagues and associations that are hosted at CSGC (morning seniors, men’s club, ladies club, etc.).

Food and Beverage Operation
Western Golf was operating a food and beverage service at CSGC with basic services consistent with a golf course snack bar operation up to early 2020, when the service was reduced due to Covid-19. The space available for F&B operations includes the snack bar area with seating for about 60+/- patrons, plus a seldom used bar area and the modest kitchen. The menu options were, and remain, significantly influenced by the limited cooking / food preparation areas as well as the importance of minimizing the staff needed to operate this area. The menu includes mainly pre- made sandwiches, beverages (soda, beer, etc.) and several breakfast items (breakfast sandwiches, toast, etc.). Several menu items require some cooking (burgers, chicken fingers, etc.) but these items are available on a limited schedule. On-course (or outside) F&B revenue represented about 46% of the total F&B revenue for 2018, but this has grown into a much higher proportion of F&B sales during and since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Review of data shows that nearly all of the total CSGC food/beverage in 2022 and 2023 came from outside service (98%).

Food and beverage operations at golf facilities tend to achieve two goals: (1) provide direct revenue; and (2) help increase the overall volume of rounds and other revenues at the facility. The primary focus of public golf course F & B service is to serve the needs of the golfers, with an occasional non-golf customer. The typical 18-hole public golf course will earn about $5.65 per round in food and beverage, less direct costs. The industry standard for direct cost of sales at golf course F & B operations is around 40%. CSGC reported total revenue of $160,742, or about $3.81

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 20 per round of golf. Total cost of sales was $56,979, or roughly 35.4% of revenue. These figures appear to have declined some in 2023, with $65,500 in revenue ($4.02/round) and cost of sales of $25,042 (38.2%) through the end of May 2023.

Merchandising
It appears that there is some modest level of merchandising at CSGC, but probably consistent with a recent decline in sales at on-course retailers nationally. The inventory was very limited at the time of the NGF visit back in 2019 and sales data supports a very modest effort in this area. This trend continued into the following years where CSGC generated low merchandise sales in 2020- 2021 (less than $0.70 per round) but increased to over $1.10 per round in 2022 ($46,361 in total gross sales in 2022).

Western Golf reported a total of $46,361 in merchandise sales in 2022, or roughly $1.10 per round with 47.6% cost of sales. In 2020, these figures were to $34,428 in sales ($0.70 per round) and

53.0% cost of sales. NGF data shows that the industry standard is $2.75 per round (2022) for merchandise, with a direct cost of merchandise sold “standard” of 70% cost of sales on merchandise. However, as the total margin on merchandise is only around 30% (best case), the net income will never be significant in merchandise sales. Rather, this is a service to golfers to make the round more enjoyable and help bring them back for more.

Other Items
Other key areas of the Camarillo Springs golf operation reviewed by NGF include:
 Organized Golf – The golf calendar at CSGC remains active, with a large number of organized group events revolving around three main clubs - Morning Seniors, Men’s Club, and the Ladies Club. CSGC reports little activity in tournaments and outings, which are a key revenue source for public golf facilities. The course and clubhouse condition are key factors in limiting tournament activity, and upgrade to the facilities should make CSGC more appealing for tournaments and outings.  Player Development - Cultivating new golfers is key to the future of golf and has the potential to enhance revenue at public golf courses. In 2019, the NGF observed an active player development program centered around lessons (private and group) from about $75 per hour (adults) and $50 per hour (juniors). However, much of this activity was shut down in 2020 due to Covid-19 but has revived in 2021 and 2022. Player development programs at golf courses are important for generating interest in golf and creating future customers, thus total revenue derived from the programs is much less important. Still, the PGA of America estimates that each new golfer created could produce $200 -$500 per year in direct revenue to a golf course.  Marketing and Technology – The marketing and technology at CSGC has improved dramatically since the NGF reviews in 2019 and 2021. Still, marketing and promoting a golf facility with the physical condition concerns present at CSGC is challenging and risky. The best course of action for ownership is to wait for upgrades to be completed and then promote and market the improvements through a variety of modern outlets (website, social media, email, etc.).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 21

CAMARILLO SPRINGS GC OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
The operation of the Camarillo Springs GC is fairly typical for a public golf course. The primary sources of revenue include the various golf fees, F&B sales, plus other ancillary sales and collection of fees. As is typical in public golf operations, much of the total expense is fixed in that the expenses must be borne regardless of how many rounds are played. The following paragraphs summarize the activity, revenue, and expenses for CSGC facility for the last three full years of operation (2020-2022). The data shows the impact of Covid-19 on this facility’s operation, with a strong boost in activity and revenue in 2020 and 2021, followed by a slight pullback in 2022. In all, rounds and revenue are around 50% to 60% higher than NGF documented for this facility in 2017 and 2018 (before the pandemic).

Rounds Played at Camarillo Springs GC
Total rounds played at CSGC peaked in 2021 at 52,491 total rounds, an amount that was the highest recorded by CSGC since 1999. However, this amount has not been fully sustainable, as the course fell back almost 20% to 42,176 in 2022. Rounds activity at this course is up dramatically since the pandemic in 2020, showing strong performance despite the declining conditions documented by NGF in 2019. A summary of total rounds as reported by Western Golf since 2018 is shown in the table below:

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Summary of Total Rounds by Type
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
Total Facility Rounds 33,529 32,385 49,372 52,491 42,176 16,319 % Change -3.4% 52.5% 6.3% -19.7%
Source: Western Golf Properties. *Through May 31, 2023
In comparison, the total U.S. experienced a significant increase in rounds played of 13.9% for calendar year 2020, the largest increase in more than a decade. This was followed by a 5.5% increase in 2021 and a slight pull-back of -3.7% in 2022. By comparison, NGF and Golf Datatech (Appendix A) record that rounds were up 5.6% in California in 2020, followed by a large 13.6% increase in 2021 and then a decline of 4.2% in 2022. The total U.S. standard for rounds played (“starts”) at an 18-hole golf course is at 31,500 for 2021.

Capacity Issues
A golf course’s theoretical capacity can be determined mathematically by multiplying the number of available tee times (utilizing only the first tee as the starting hole) by the maximum number of players in a group, usually a foursome. This measure is not realistic for golf, but results in an absolute maximum of around 80,000 total rounds per year (for an 18-hole course). A more realistic measure, a golf course’s actual capacity takes into account the loss of tee times for weather, unplayable conditions, cancellations, no-shows, market realities, down time for maintenance, groups of less than four players, and other reasons a golf course would never actually play the theoretical capacity. In estimating capacity, NGF Consulting has defined a “round” as one person teeing off in an authorized start, so 9-hole and 18-hole rounds are counted equally.

In the Southern California area market golf facilities are operating year-round, although some months show more demand than others. Based on the current 18-hole Camarillo Springs GC layout, fees, weather conditions and down time for maintenance, NGF Consulting has estimated an actual capacity of about 54,000 rounds per year on the 18-hole golf course. If the course were to be reduced to 9 holes, the actual capacity would also fall to around 33,000+/- rounds per year.

NGF estimates the actual capacity for a 12-hole course would be 40,000+/-, slightly higher than for a 9-hole course.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 22 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Revenue
NGF has reviewed the total operating revenue from all sources at Camarillo Springs GC in 2020 through 2022. We note that the facility’s overall revenue has increased dramatically from the figures presented in previous NGF reports where revenue peaked at $1,278,877 in 2018. The figures presented below show a totally different level of revenue with CSGC exceeding $2.0 million in each of the three years since the 2020 pandemic. The total revenue through the first five months of 2023 (through May 31) was $706,289 and is on pace for approximately $1.8-$1.9 million in revenue for the full 2023. The ‘standard’ in the U.S. for an 18-hole public golf courses is about $1.2 million in total revenue, showing CSGC had been matching this standard prior to 2020. The table below is a summary of total operating revenue from all sources in 2020-2022:

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Summary of Total Revenue (2020-2022)
2020 2021 2022
Rounds (Starts) 49,372 52,491 42,176
Revenue
Green Fees $1,251,981 $1,414,735 $1,177,324
Cart Fees 437,882 466,527 344,931
Driving Range 132,616 156,318 119,266
Merchandise 34,428 36,888 46,361
Food / Bev. Outside 163,679 174,882 160,481
Restaurant 1,684 12 261
Passes / Members 6,085 0 0
Other 7,475 8,245 11,539
Total Revenue $2,035,830 $2,257,607 $1,860,163
Total Rev/Round $41.23 $43.01 $44.10
Source: Western Golf Properties.

Camarillo Springs Golf Course Average Revenue Analysis
The total average revenue per round at Camarillo Springs was $44.10 in 2022, inclusive of all revenue sources as noted. This represents a 15% increase over the $38.33 revenue per round documented by NGF in 2019, indicating that CSGC has experienced growth in both total rounds and average revenue earned per round. Of the gross total, $34.48 are golf-related revenues and the remaining $9.62 in ancillary revenue. These figures from 2022 exceed the industry standards, with significant differences in merchandise sales and food & beverage. The table below is a summary of total average revenue per round by category from 2022:

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Total Average Revenue per Round (2022)
2022 US Standard (2022)
Rounds (Starts) 42,176 31,500
Revenue
Green + Cart + Passes $34.48 $30.00
Golf Shop Merchandise $1.10 $2.75
Food & Beverage (Gross) $3.81 $5.65
Driving Range $2.83 $2.00
Other $0.27 $0.05
Total Rev/Round $44.10 $40.45
Source: Western Golf Properties and NGF.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 23 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Expenses
NGF has reviewed the total operating expenses across all departments for 2020-2022. The expenses shown in the table do not include direct cost of goods sold (not an operating expense) or depreciation (not a cash item). The NGF has made these adjustments for appropriate comparison to benchmarks. We note that the facility’s overall expense profile is generally consistent with industry standards, as public golf courses in the U.S. typically have around $1.2 million in total operating expense with about 50-55% of that total for the direct cost of labor.

Expenses by Category
The table below shows the total operating expenses at Camarillo Springs GC in 2020-2022. Direct expense for total labor / payroll is the largest in the operation, but consistent with industry standards at about 55% of total base operating expenses (excluding the unique pond project).

Overall, the CSGC operation looks to be standard on all levels, reflecting the professional nature of Western Golf and its golf operations experience. The management fee of $84,000 represented approximately 4.5% of total facility revenue in 2022, which was lower than the 6% to 8% standard.

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Total Operating Expense by Category (2020-2022)
Operating Expenses 2020* 2021 2022
Payroll
Golf Operations $223,638 $340,266 $339,392
Golf Maintenance 357,526 348,512 349,080
Food & Beverage 10,778 5,782 0
General & Admin 84,816 97,207 104,570
Total Payroll 676,758 791,767 793,042
Golf Operations $26,251 $21,498 $23,904
Golf Maintenance 120,596 139,416 131,423
Utilities 36,964 52,264 51,970
G&A 126,074 127,982 125,744
F&B 7,328 9,389 6,919
Marketing 25,204 21,943 22,014
Clubhouse 40,734 43,796 41,309
GL Insurance 26,832 37,783 60,864
Equipment lease 17,650 18,709 19,768
cart lease 77,110 100,633 93,503
Management Fee 84,000 84,000 84,000
Total Operations $588,743 $657,413 $661,418

Total Facility Expense $1,265,501 $1,449,180 $1,454,460

Misc** (Incl. Pond Project) 75,527 1,187,591 577,722

Total Facility Expense $1,341,028 $2,636,771 $2,032,182 Source: Western Golf Properties. *2020 pandemic year – course was closed March 20 – May 31.**Includes unique expenses related to pond mitigation in 2021 and 2022 that are not regular operating expenses.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 24 Camarillo Springs Golf Course Financial Summary
NGF’s review of financial performance shows that Camarillo Springs GC is operating with basic revenues and expenses that are comparable to industry standards. However, when property taxes and the large debt service are added, the facility shows very deep net losses, reaching almost ($375,000) in 2022. CSGC was able to generate a small $33,000 profit after other items in 2021 due to strong revenue but this was short-lived as the course fell back with a reduction in revenue in 2022. The large pond reclamation expenses (over $1.5 million over 2 years) led to deep losses on the facility in 2021 and 2022, but this is considered a unique expense that is not expected to be ongoing.

In reviewing the overall financial position of CSGC, it does not appear that there are any areas where expenses could be reduced without jeopardizing the integrity of the product offering. It is clear that earning enough revenue to cover a large $640,000+ annual debt requirement is too high a threshold to clear for this golf facility, even with a tremendous surge in activity and revenue in 2021 and 2022. In addition, the operating expenses do not include any reserve for replacement or capital investment, meaning the maintenance deferrals observed by NGF that result in deteriorating playing conditions are likely to continue into the foreseeable future. Over time, these maintenance deferrals will eventually lead to total system failure and the facility’s inability to earn enough revenue to cover basic expenses. Below is a summary of Camarillo Springs GC’s overall performance in 2020-2022:

Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Facility Operating Summary (2020*-2022)
2020* 2021 2022
Total Rounds 49,372 52,491 42,176

Total Facility Revenue $2,035,830 $2,257,607 $1,860,163 Less Cost of Sales:

Merchandise $18,255 $14,854 $22,897
Food & Beverage $53,394 $58,425 $56,979
Total Cost of Sales $71,649 $73,279 $79,876

Gross Margin $1,964,181 $2,184,328 $1,780,287

Total Operating Expenses $1,265,501 $1,449,180 $1,454,460

Net Operating Income (Loss) $698,680 $735,148 $325,827 Less Other:

Debt Service $640,000 $640,000 $639,996
Real Estate Tax $62,285 $62,216 $60,809
Net after Other Items ($3,605) $32,932 ($374,978)
Less:

Pond Reclamation Project $75,527 $1,187,591 $577,722

Facility Net (Loss) ($79,132) ($1,154,659) ($952,700)
Source: Western Golf Properties. *2020 pandemic year – course was closed March 20 – May 31.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 25 PROPOSED FACILITY / PROGRAM CHANGES – CAMARILLO SPRINGS GC Camarillo Springs GC ownership is proposing a significant change to the facility that will alter its basic offering while also enhancing the quality and condition of all amenities. The key changes proposed include a reduction from 18 golf holes to either 9 golf holes (a layout common in golf tradition), or 12 regulation golf holes (less common). In addition, clubhouse enhancement and upgrade to all facility infrastructure (irrigation, drainage, plumbing, electrical, maintenance facilities, equipment, etc.) will be completed in either option. The result will be a new golf facility that will appeal to golfers of all skill levels and also serve as the social hub for the Camarillo Springs community. The modified golf facility will include the following key elements either configuration:
9-Hole Golf Configuration
The Camarillo Springs GC will be modified with a re-design from 18 to 9 holes, with all new holes to be located on what is currently holes #1-11 and #18. The remaining property (what is now holes #12-17) will be redeveloped into new residential units and other open space / park uses generating capital to support new investment in the property. The new 9-hole golf course will include:
 9 Regulation Holes: The new golf course design will include a standard mix of two par- 3 holes, two par-5 holes and five par-4 holes. It is expected to play to a length of at least 3,500 yards from its longest tee and have the first tee and 9th green in the area immediately proximate to the clubhouse.
 Modern Features: The new course will be designed with all modern playing features, such as USGA Spec Bentgrass greens, modern turf and bunkers. The course will offer the operator flexible mowing options to allow for changes in the amount of rough area (or no rough if desired).
 Maintenance and Irrigation: The new course will have a new irrigation system, with modern components in both above ground (controller, heads) and below ground (piping) elements. Total maintained golf course turf will be around 38-40 acres, and the new irrigation system will provide for maximum efficiency in water usage. 12-Hole Golf Configuration
A second option is to redesign Camarillo Springs with a change from 18 to 12 holes, all of which would be located on the same hole #1-11 and #18 property, with remaining acreage redeveloped into residential and other open space. The new 12-hole course concept has been professionally designed by the popular golf architect Damian Pascuzzo, and will contain all features and design elements commonly associated with high quality golf. The new 12-hole golf course will include:
 12 Regulation Holes: The new golf course design will include 12 regulation-length golf holes with three par-5’s, three par-3’s and six par-4’s. With this layout, the course can be played as 3, 6, 9, 12 or 18 holes, all returning near the clubhouse. If played as 18 holes (12-hole course + additional 6 holes), then the course will be a regulation par-72 with four par-5’s, four par-3’s and 10 par 4’s).
 Maintenance and Irrigation: This course would also include new and modern irrigation for approximately 50-55 total maintained acres of golf course turf, and the new irrigation system will provide for maximum efficiency in water usage.  Modern Features: As with the 9-hole option, the 12-hole course will also include all modern playing features, USGA Spec Bentgrass greens, modern turf and bunkers. The course will offer the operator flexible mowing options to allow for changes in the amount of rough area (or no rough if desired).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 26 Other Property Features
Other features on the new Camarillo Springs GC that will be present regardless of whether it is modified to 9 or 12 holes will include a new clubhouse, outstanding practice amenities and modernized maintenance facility and equipment.

Clubhouse Enhancement
The program proposed for the Camarillo Springs GC clubhouse involves a complete and comprehensive renovation of the existing facility within its current footprint. All key elements would be upgraded to modern standards with new roof, HVAC, plumbing, fixtures, windows, kitchen, bar and restrooms. The clubhouse would include all current elements (pro shop, snack bar/restaurant, kitchen, restrooms, offices, etc.), as well as a proposal to add space to accommodate banquets and parties, with an allowance for about 5,500-6,000sf for dedicated banquet space. The main banquet area would encompass about 3,000sf for a maximum of 125 patrons. Additional space for bridal suite(s), new restrooms and a modern kitchen would be included in the 6,000sf total.

This proposed new clubhouse would then serve multiple functions, both in support for the golf facility, as a profit center for enhanced banquet revenue and as a local community center and attraction. The new clubhouse will offer modernized cart storage (in the current space) and a proposed second-story lounge/bar that overlooks the golf course. This new upgraded clubhouse proposal is consistent with other successful golf facilities in this area and should provide a boost of economic support to the CSGC facility.

Maintenance Facility and Equipment:

The new plan for CSGC will involve a new facility for course maintenance to be located at the current golf maintenance site at the northwest corner of the property. The plan also includes the acquisition (via lease) of a new fleet of modern golf maintenance equipment. These items will improve maintenance efficiencies and help keep the golf playing conditions at a high level.

Practice Amenities:

The new CSGC will have modern practice amenities with an improved driving range (on the current location) with 25 hitting stations and appropriate netting. In addition, there will be two practice putting greens and additional practice chipping areas and a practice bunker. This mix of amenities will be ideal for the proposed business plan to target all skill levels, including beginners and a strong junior golf program.

Operational Profile
The changes proposed for Camarillo Springs GC will require some modification to the operating profile of the facility, although the operating program currently in place should be adequate to properly manage, operate and maintain the newly modified and enhanced CSGC (9 or 12 holes).

The NGF review suggests that the staff, maintenance program and operational philosophy currently in place and implemented by a qualified golf management partner (currently Western Golf Properties) will remain after renovation, and that the changes recommended by NGF would be implemented at the new facility after re-opening. The primary changes that will be required to properly manage CSGC after renovation include:
 Staffing: While no major change in staff profile is excepted, the operator should assume that 1-2 additional staff will be required to properly manage the newly expanded and enhanced clubhouse operation. New positions will include additional senior staff to manage the restaurant, lounge and banquet operations, plus additional staff for marketing these new services (as well as golf). The NGF has assumed that CSGC will continue to employ 1-3 assistant golf professionals / pro shop staff, with

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 27 additional golf instructors retained via contract (as current). Maintenance staff is expected to remain intact, with 7 greenskeepers retained even with smaller size to improve overall maintenance conditions. NGF estimated increase in personnel expense = $45,000 (including benefits).
 Tee Sheet Management: CSGC management will have to effectively manage tee times and pace of play. In order to maximize activity with limited inventory on a 9-hole course, or to sell 18-hole rounds on a 12-hole golf course, the inventory of tee times will have to be managed professionally. In the 12-hole option, holes will have to be open for 18-hole players when they finish the first 12 holes to play the additional six holes without interfering with 12-hole players. On a 9-hole layout, golfers seeking to play 18 holes will have to be accommodated for their second 9-hole round as well. Effective management of the tee sheet will be crucial to maximizing green fee revenue at CSGC after re-opening.
 Food and Beverage: The F&B operation will change the most at the new CSGC, with new venues and remodeled kitchen. It is assumed that the new CSGC would have to employ a full-time chef to cover both daily restaurant activities, as well as banquets.

Other direct F&B expenses covered under revised schedule of cost of sales, expected to be 45% of total revenue (currently 33.7%). NGF estimated increase in personnel expense = $40,000 (including benefits).
 Maintenance Equipment: The new CSGC will include a lease for new maintenance equipment. NGF estimated annual expense = $60,000 ($5,000/month).  Utilities: The smaller golf course size and more efficient irrigation system will reduce utilities expense by 25%. NGF estimated new annual utilities expense = $40,000.  Carts: The number of carts will be reduced from 72 to 45 (9-hole) or to 60 (12-hole), resulting in a decrease in cart lease expense (currently $94,000/yr.). NGF estimated annual expense = $54,000 (9-hole option) or $72,000 (12-hole option).  Enhanced Marketing: One key change in CSGC operating activities to maximize the economic potential of the proposed changes is an extensive and modern marketing program. It is expected that the operator will heavily market and promote the new facility through enhanced electronic marketing (website, email, POS, etc.), enhanced banquet/wedding promotions (participation in bridal shows and websites), plus active programming and events, including a “grand re-opening.” NGF recommends that golf facilities spend about 1%-2% of total revenue on marketing, a threshold that has been met in previous years by Western Golf (reported $22,000 in 2018 – 1.7%). Thus, no change is projected for marketing as a $25,000+/- marketing budget should be adequate to market and promote the new facility after re-opening.  Merchandising Enhancement: The new clubhouse will provide opportunity to enhance merchandising with a wider selection of items available for sale. NGF has assumed the space available for retail sales will be equal to, or greater, than the space currently available in the clubhouse.
 Debt Service: Ownership reports that the $640,000 annual debt payment requirement would be eliminated under the new plan, as the balance owed would be paid off as part of the new development program.
 Management Fee: Ownership reports the proposed management fee to Western Golf would remain unchanged at $7,000 per month ($84,000 per year) if the course remains 18 or 12 holes, but would reduce to $5,000 per month in a 9-hole configuration.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 28  Memberships: CSGC will resume offering annual passes (with unlimited golf, carts and range balls) for $2,400/year (or $200/month) for an individual, and $2,040/year ($170/month) for each additional family member.
 Daily Green Fees: After the completion of the renovation and re-opening, the NGF projects CSGC to offer the following schedule of daily green fees:

Camarillo Springs GC – Post Renovation
Proposed 2025 Green Fee Rates
18-Hole Rates
(1.5x on 12 holes or 2x on 9 holes) Walking with Cart
Regular (WD/WE) $27.00 / $30.00 $41.00 / $46.00
Senior (WD/WE)* $24.00 / $27.00 $36.00 / $41.00
Twilight >12:30 (WD/WE) $19.00 / $23.00 $32.00 / $36.00 Twilight >2:30 (WD/WE) $13.00 / $15.00 $21.00 / $24.00
Junior $21/$17>1p/$10>3p N/A
12-Hole Rates Walking with Cart
Regular (WD/WE) $21.00 / $26.00 $29.00 / $34.00
Senior (WD/WE)* $17.00 / $22.00 $26.00 / $30.00
Twilight >12:30 (WD/WE) $13.00 / $16.00 $22.00 / $24.00 Twilight >2:30 (WD/WE) $11.00 / $13.00 $16.00 / $19.00
Junior $17/$11>1p/$9>3p N/A
9-Hole Rates Walking with Cart
Regular (WD/WE) $14.00 / $18.00 $21.00 / $25.00
Senior (WD/WE)* $12.00 / $16.00 $18.00 / $22.00
Twilight >12:30 (WD/WE) $10.00 / $12.00 $15.00 / $17.00 Junior $8.00 / $10.00 N/A
6-Hole Rates Walking with Cart
Regular (WD/WE) $9.00 / $12.00 $12.00 / $15.00
Senior/Twilight (WD/WE)* $6.00 / $9.00 $10.00 / $13.00
Schedule and Timing of Proposed Changes
The timing to complete the proposed changes and upgrades to Camarillo Springs GC would take at least 12 months to complete, with all elements not fully re-opened until 15 months have passed since closing. It is expected that there will be no revenue coming in to the facility during this time, with the only possible exception being a small revenue generated from the driving range (no major changes to the range). If at all possible, NGF recommends the range be kept open so as to maintain the CSGC operation and keep it top of mind for golf consumers. The ideal growing season for a new golf course is the six months from March through August, following a six-month construction/shaping period. As such, the earliest possible schedule for CSGC renovation:
 Camarillo Springs GC Closure – December 31, 2023
 New course construction – January 1, 2024 – July 31, 2024  Comprehensive Clubhouse renovation – January 1, 2024 – Sept. 30, 2024  New course grow-in – August 1, 2024 – October 31, 2024  Overall new facility grand opening – January 1, 2025

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 29 SUMMARY – CAMARILLO SPRINGS GOLF COURSE
Camarillo Springs GC is an older 18-hole golf course surrounded by about 500 residential units at the southern end of Camarillo, CA. The facility has a basic mix of amenities and features that are common in the golf industry and can correlate with economic success. However, its age, drainage profile and recent deferrals of needed investment have led to poor playing conditions and despite some temporary improvement in 2020-22, the long-term trend is for continued reductions that put the facility at risk of failure. Some new investment in infrastructure, facilities and the golf playing area will be required if this facility is to be sustainable as a golf course for the future. As such, the key to long-term sustainability of CSGC lies in its ability to secure much needed capital to correct its growing list of deficiencies. Other findings from NGF’s review of CSGC:
 The overall physical condition of the CSGC property appeared to be generally poor and in decline during NGF’s visit in 2019, and little has been done to enhance the property in the four years four years since. In particular, the NGF observed an aging golf facility with much of its basic infrastructure well beyond its expected useful life. This includes both the golf course playing area and its support facilities (clubhouse, maintenance area, equipment, etc.). As such, if the City wishes to see golf continue at this location, considerable investment in upgrades and modernization is still necessary at CSGC.  The specific improvements required at CSGC include all areas of basic infrastructure (irrigation, drainage), along with other golf course improvements like turf conditions (greens, tees, fairways, etc.) and clubhouse condition. In all, the NGF is estimating a total of at least $6.8 million in facility upgrades will be required to bring the CSGC to a generally acceptable level of condition and help establish its long-term viability (amount is nearly double the 2019 estimate due to inflation and clubhouse requirements).  CSGC is managed by a third-party vendor via contract agreement with the owner. This management entity is providing professional oversight to CSGC and making the best of a declining golf course facility. The NGF is confident that if new investment is made to improve the CSGC facility, the management and operating program that is currently in place will provide a strong foundation to improve economic performance through operational efficiencies, high quality maintenance and strong marketing.  CSGC is currently operating with revenues and expenses that have improved dramatically since 2019 due to a mini “golf boom” in 2020-2022. However, despite this revenue improvement, CSGC is still struggling to meet all its expense obligations including the large $640,000 annual debt service requirement. We also note that the improvement appears to be waning, as rounds and revenue peaked in 2021, followed by decline in 2022 and even further decline in the first five months of 2023. Over time, as this facility returns to more normal golf participation patterns, this financial condition will eventually lead to total system failure and the facility’s inability to earn enough revenue to cover basic expenses.
 The CSGC property is set up well to accommodate some form of facility alteration that would involve a reduction in the number of golf holes and new property available for alternate development. If undertaken, that type of change will result in a high-quality golf course (9 or 12 holes) that will be more desirable than a poor-quality 18-hole golf course. A new regulation-length design (either 9 or 12 holes) will allow golfers to play “all golf shots,” and, with proper promotion, should be able to draw golfers from the same general market as at present. The proposed clubhouse upgrade is significant and can produce a strong new profit center, with additional F&B services and banquet space potentially accounting for as much as 30%-40% of total facility revenue (derived from F&B services, banquets, parties, weddings and large golf tournaments).

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 30 External Factors Affecting the Operation of
Camarillo Springs GC
In this section, NGF will provide a summary of important external factors that have direct effect on the continued operation of Camarillo Springs Golf Course, regardless of configuration. This includes a review of local demographics and the economy, national golf industry trends, and a specific estimate of golf demand in the Camarillo market. NGF will also provide a review of other golf courses in the market area that compete with CSGC for market share. We will then provide a summary of these factors and how they relate to the continued operation of the CSGC.

DEMOGRAPHICS, ECONOMY AND WEATHER
The subject CSGC is located in at the southeastern edge of Camarillo, immediately proximate to the Highway 101 / Camarillo Springs Rd interchange that hosts upwards of 132,000 autos per day (AADT-Caltrans – 2017 latest year of data) and around 15,300 AADT (2021) at S. Lewis Rd. interchange, 9,100 AADT (2021) on Pleasant Valley Rd and 1,100 AADT (2021) at Camarillo Springs Rd ramp on/off of Highway 101. The City is part of a growing Camarillo – Oxnard corridor that has seen considerable new development in the last 20+ years, but also still has large tracts of undeveloped farmland. The subject Camarillo Springs community is one of the master-planned communities in the area, of which four others also include golf courses (Las Posas, Sterling Hills, Spanish Hills and Leisure Village). Given this basic characteristic, it is expected that the continued support of any golf facility in this location will rely on participation from golfers residing close to the golf course, including the many residents inside the adjacent housing communities.

Demographic Analysis – Local Permanent Residents
The local demographic and economic factors affecting the demand for public-access golf in this market show that the broader Ventura County market has demographic characteristics that correlate to modest golf demand, which is considerably stronger in the local Camarillo Springs GC market.

The table in Appendix B summarizes key demographic measures of population, income and other trends that relate to golf participation. The table below provides a summary of key demographic and golf demand measures for various market rings around the subject MPGC, Ventura County, the State of California and the total U.S.:

Market Data Comparisons 2022
Camarillo Springs GC 2-Mile
Radius
5-Mile
Radius
10-Mile
Radius
Ventura
County California Total U.S.

Population Est. 2022 16,789 113,365 291,511 840,253 39,364,748 333,609,568 Population 2027 Proj. 16,678 113,148 294,512 845,276 40,089,837 342,845,536 Med. HH Income (2022) $121,490 $127,558 $127,887 $105,950 $95,671 $70,666 Median Age (2022) 47.5 41.3 40.8 38.2 36.6 37.9
Household Participation Index 114 120 119 103 89 100
Number of Golfers 1,463 10,454 26,554 66,077 2,694,825 25,551,350 Rounds Potential (res.) 23,844 164,440 417,374 1,017,099 40,778,066 434,080,100 Source: NGF Consulting, Tactician Corporation, Applied Geographic Solutions. N/A = not available

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 31  The local market around Camarillo Springs GC shows a small permanent population, with around 16,800 permanent residents in 2022 and 2027. The lack of growth in the population is noted and is further indication of the need to attract golfers from a wide geographic area at CSGC.
 The Median Age in the local market around Camarillo Springs GC is much older than the national median age of 37.9 years. This is indicative of the higher proportion of older age residents in this part of Ventura County. In general, the propensity to play golf with greater frequency increases with age, making relatively older markets more attractive to golf facility operators, all other factors being equal.  Median household income in the local market area tends to be much higher than the State and U.S., but lower than the wider surrounding markets. Higher-than-average incomes tend to coincide with higher golf participation. In all, the demographics suggest a relatively small population of permanent resident golfers, generating adequate demand to golf courses in the local Camarillo market.
 The NGF estimates there are a total of just over 26,500 golfers potentially demanding as many as 420,000 rounds of golf annually (15.8 rounds per golfer per year) within a 10-mile radius around CSGC. It is expected that this golf demand would be serviced by the golf facilities available in this market radius.
 The local market around the CSGC shows golf participation and rounds demand that is comparable to, or slightly higher than the total U.S. average. The broader Camarillo market area shows a higher golf participation and rounds demand than the State of California as a whole, suggesting the population in this area is made up of a larger share of older residents possibly “retiring” to the area in search of an affordable golf lifestyle. This suggests there is potential for continued demand for golf course service in this market over the next 10-20 years, but the most appropriate mix of facilities still to be determined (later in this report).
 The local CSGC market has a much higher proportion of high-income households when compared to the State and nation. An estimated 59% of households in the 5-mile ring show incomes over $100,000 annually (compared to 32% in the USA), while 25% show income in excess of $200,000 (9.3% in USA), further indications that demand for golf a higher-than-average price points is supported by local golfers:

Higher Income Households 5-Mile Ring 10-Mile Ring Ventura County No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct.

No. of Households over $100,000 Income 24,381 59.4% 58,383 58.0% 148,003 52.5% No. of Households over $200,000 Income 10,140 24.7% 25,441 25.3% 57,245 20.3% Market Area Strengths
 The local area immediately proximate to Camarillo Springs GC includes three key elements for potential market success – residential neighborhoods, immediate access to local freeways and proximity to higher income residents over 50 years of age.

Market Area Weaknesses
 The high concentration of more modest-income households close to Camarillo Springs GC creates competition for daily fee players – this can be a price-sensitive market  Crowded roadways and heavy traffic may also add to limited time availability for golf activity at this location

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 32 Key Economic Factors
Various sources including the “City of Camarillo Economic Development Strategic Plan” by Natelson Dale Group, Inc. – September 2015.
 When compared to Ventura County as a whole, and the nearby cities of Oxnard, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks and Ventura, Camarillo shows income, labor force and education characteristics that are at or near the highest levels of this community. The data also shows Camarillo as being popular for families with children with good schools, abundant parks and a reputation as “one of the safest cities in California.” The income and family characteristics correlate well with active golf participation, especially if a golf leaning / development component with active junior golf is present in the area.  Camarillo offers a diverse and vibrant local economy, with several drivers such as agriculture, manufacturing (biotech), information technology professional services and tourism. Within the local business community there is growing interest in technology- oriented entrepreneurial development (i.e. “tech startups”), including a sector of bio-tech startups. The diverse economy (not fully dependent on one industry or employer) and tendency toward tech and medical both correlates well with strong golf participation.  Data on commuting patterns show that Camarillo, although the City has a high jobs-to- housing ratio, many of these jobs are not filled by Camarillo residents, resulting in a substantial in-commuting of workers and out-commuting of residents. While this back- and-forth commuting pattern is not consistent with strong golf participation, the location of the subject Camarillo Springs GC in immediate proximity to the primary highway (CA 101) does provide some opportunity for a golf facility at this location to capture a portion of potential patrons utilizing this commute pattern on a daily basis.  Camarillo has a small but growing lodging industry, with an inventory of 373,760 potential room nights available at lodging establishments in Camarillo. Current projections show this amount to be sufficient to service expected lodging demand through 2024, but after which time additional inventory will be needed. Lodging availability tends to correlate well with successful golf facilities, and any increase in lodging in the Camarillo area is expected to have a positive impact on the public-access golf courses located in the City.
 Given its location along a major highway and between two cities (Camarillo and Thousand Oaks), CSGC is easily accessible for auto transportation, thus potentially enhancing its appeal as a single-day destination. This location and strong accessibility will serve to increase the potential non-resident demand to those visiting Camarillo, as opposed to demand from those residing in Camarillo or Camarillo Springs itself.

Climate
As with any outdoor recreation, weather will have impact on golf participation. NGF data estimates that almost all golf is played with temperatures between 50- and 90-degrees Fahrenheit. The data suggests that golf in Camarillo can be comfortably played year-round with very little down time expected due to weather. The Camarillo area has ideal golf weather with mid-day temperatures ranging from the low 60s to the high 70s year-round. With an annual average of ±15 inches of precipitation, this market is prone to some reduction in playable hours/days in the December – March winter season. The following table presents a summary of monthly weather data for Camarillo based on 50-year recorded trends:

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 33 Climatological Data – Camarillo, CA
Month
Temperatures Average
Length of
Day (Hours) Average High Low Precipitation
(Inches)
Avg. Days
w/Precip.

Annual 60.5 70.6 50.3 15.2 25 12.6
January 54.4 65.5 43.2 3.5 4 10.6
February 53.7 65.3 42.2 3.7 4 11.4
March 56.2 65.8 46.6 2.7 4 12.4
April 58.3 68.8 47.9 0.8 3 13.5
May 61.4 71.1 51.7 0.3 1 14.4
June 64.3 72.5 56.2 0.1 - 14.9
July 66.9 75.9 58.0 - - 14.6
August 67.7 76.8 58.5 - - 13.8
September 66.8 76.6 57.0 0.2 1 12.8
October 63.1 73.5 52.7 0.6 1 11.7
November 58.5 70.3 46.7 1.3 3 10.8
December 53.8 65.5 42.1 2.1 4 10.4
Source: Weatherbase.com, Camarillo, CA

GOLF MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Below are key NGF observations regarding national and local trends in golf supply and demand.

National Golf Industry Overview
Prior to the pandemic year of 2020, the golf industry was healthy and was continuing a macro trend toward stabilization in terms of participation and demand, though golf course closures continued to greatly outpace openings. Ultimately, total spending on golf and club memberships will always be vulnerable to outside forces such as the economy, but the game remains popular and is fortunate to have a deep well of interested prospects. The chief challenge is getting more non-golfers who express interest in playing (‘latent demand’) to give golf a try, and converting more beginners into committed participants.

Since spring 2020, golf has received a strong boost in interest and demand resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, where golf was seen as an outdoor activity that is conducive to social distancing. There are indications that part of this pandemic “dividend” may be slipping away. (See Appendix A). Still, it is important to consider the following:
 Participation - The national golfer number (people age 6+ that had played at least one round of golf the prior 12 months) showed net attrition since 2012, but has been on the rise over the last several years, increasing from 23.8 million people in 2017 to 25.1 million in 2022. When both on-course and off-course participation (more below) are considered, 37.5 million Americans age 6+ played golf in 2022. In addition, NGF survey research indicates that the inflow of returning golfers and beginners combined to total over 6.2 million in 2020, the highest number ever recorded by NGF.  Golf Course Supply - The number of course closures has outweighed new openings for 14 consecutive years, with NGF documenting that there has been a 10% cumulative reduction of U.S. golf courses in terms of 18-hole equivalents (18HEQ) since 2006.

NGF data shows the Ventura County market has seen a large share of course closures, with 4.5 fewer facilities in Ventura County in 2022 than there was in 2012. This includes the 18-hole Mountain View GC (closed 2019) and 36 holes at Lost Canyons GC (2014 /

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 34 2016) – both assumed to have closed for economic reasons and the high value of underlying property.
 Rounds Played 2020-2022 – NGF estimates that total golf rounds played in 2020 finished up by 13.9% (about 60 million rounds) over 2019, with California up by 5.6%, despite Covid-related shutdowns for much of March and April. For 2021, California “caught up” to the nation with a 13.6% increase in rounds (compared to 5.6% increase in the U.S.). In 2022, there was some decline with the total U.S. down -3.7% and California down -4.2% compared to 2021. Early indications are that rounds are stable in 2023 (through May), with about 3% to 4% increases in both the U.S. and California (source: Golf Datatech – see Appendix A).
 Baby Boomer Effect and Generation G (the “Golf Generation”) – As Baby Boomers age and retire over the next 15 years or so, we expect to see a measurable increase in total rounds played in the U.S. Boomers - born between 1946 and 1964 - are currently 57 to 76 years old. About 6 million of them are golfers; that’s approximately 1/4 of all golfers, and they currently play about 1/3 of all rounds. While not technically a generation, the 46-65 age cohort is the most vital group for the golf industry, accounting for the most golfers, rounds and spend in the industry – more than $9 billion in total annually. Generation G includes younger Boomers and older members of Gen X.

Other Measures of Health
Other perhaps equally important metrics to consider when measuring the health of golf include:
 Off-Course Participation: Driven primarily by the popularity and growth of Topgolf, a non-traditional form of golf entertainment, there were an estimated 23 million off-course participants (only those activities that involve hitting a ball with a golf club) in 2019, up by 2 million from 2017. In 2021, the number grew to 24.3 million, nearly half of whom did not play on a golf course.
 Beginners: The number of beginners rose to a record 3.2 million in 2021, surpassing the record of 3 million set in 2020 and representing an annual increase of about 1 million since 2014. Nearly 37% of beginning golfers are women, and the percentage of non-Caucasian beginners is significantly higher than the percentage of non-Caucasians in the total golf population. Overall, the industry has had eight straight years with more than 2 million beginners. However, one of the key issues the industry has faced is that many of these beginners are lost out the “back door”. NGF believes that short courses – like Camarillo Springs GC – can play a significant role in increasing engagement and retention among beginning golfers, as well as young adults in general.  Increasing Diversity: A closer look at on-course participants (golfers) in 2021 shows a continuing trend towards diversification – spurred in some respect by the heightened interest and engagement being generated by off-course forms of golf. Women now comprise 25% of golfers, and people of color 21%, both groups having increased meaningfully. Overall, the number of non-White golfers has increased by about 900,000 since 2017, while the number of women golfers grew by about 400,000 over that time.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 35

 Investment in Facilities: Investment in major renovation projects has replaced new construction as the largest source of U.S. golf course development activity. A recent NGF study with more than 1,200 responding facilities indicated total investment of more than $9 billion over the prior 5 years. In terms of new construction, NGF is currently tracking 54 new courses that are under construction, and another 38 that are in planning across the U.S. The former represents an increase of more than 55% compared to the recent three-year pre-pandemic average.

 Juniors: According to NGF’s Graffis Report: “In addition to the largest-ever recorded increase in beginners (+23%), 2020 saw the most significant gain for youth golfers (+25%) since 1997.” 3.1 million Juniors played golf on a course in 2021, and the population of junior golfers is more diverse than the overall participation base: females comprise 34% of junior golfers, compared to 24% of all golfers, while non-Caucasians are 28% of junior golfers and 20% of all golfers.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 36  Young Adults: The category of young adults (18 to 34-year-olds) is among the sport’s biggest customer age segments, with 6.1 million on-course participants and another 4.8 million off-course participants. Ongoing NGF survey research indicates that interest in playing among non-golfing young adults is high, with more than 5 million saying they are “very interested” in taking up the game. The fun and entertainment aspects of golf – especially when consumable in relatively short time windows - are particularly salient to this cohort, making the changes proposed for Camarillo Springs GC ideally suited to this segment.
 Latent Demand: Overall interest in playing golf remains very high. NGF survey research indicates that the number of non-golfers who say they are “very interested” in taking up golf – which had doubled between 2014 and 2018 (CAGR of ±15%), has continued to steadily rise to about 17 million in 2022.  Dedicated: Several years ago, NGF developed a scale to gauge participant engagement with golf. NGF annual golfer survey research indicates that the number of dedicated golfers has remained steady at 20 million for the past 8 years and are responsible for ±95% of rounds played and spending. Those who are more engaged are significantly more likely to continue playing.

Market Definition – Primary and Secondary Trade Areas
For purposes of the market analysis, NGF has defined the primary trade area for the CSGC as a 5- mile radius around the site, with a secondary trade area as the 10-mile radius that includes more of the Oxnard and Thousand Oaks outskirts. In reality, NGF believes that the vast majority of play at CSGC comes from Camarillo residents, with a few from the secondary market and the rest from area visitors who reside beyond these markets. The NGF expects that the CSGC facility could broaden its effective market if the course is improved and upgraded as documented by NGF.

Local Golf Demand
The following are some summary NGF observations regarding key golf demand measures for the local golf market. Please see the supporting tables in Appendix B.  NGF estimates that at there are at least 10,500 golfers living within five miles of CSGC, and over 26,500 golfers living with 10 miles of CSGC in 2012 (this represents a slight decline in estimates provided in 2019).
 NGF estimates that resident golfers could demand about 164,400 annual rounds of golf in the 5-mile market and upwards of 418,000 in the 10-mile market around CSGC in 2022. In Ventura County overall, NGF estimates demand potential of over 1.0 million rounds of golf annually, to be distributed over all (public and private) courses. This equates to approximately 39,886 rounds per 18 holes in Ventura County, roughly 1.26 times the total U.S. average of 31,530+/- rounds per 18 holes in 2022.  The more localized demand estimate shows 1,4563golfers potentially demanding 23,800 rounds in the immediate 2-mile market that includes Camarillo Springs and much of the Leisure Village GC community just to the north of Highway 101. Again, both figures are slightly reduced from the estimates presented in 2019.  The golf demand indices for the local 5-mile and 10-mile markets around the CSGC indicate golf participation and rounds demanded rates that are about 14% higher than U.S. benchmarks (same as in 2019), indicating a larger proportion of golfers in Camarillo. However, this finding is mitigated by two key factors that impact Camarillo golf: (1) the traffic patterns and limited time available for golf; and (2) the generally higher-than-average cost to play golf in Camarillo that may serve to stifle golf demand.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 37  Latent Demand - People who express an interest in playing golf but have not yet started include former golfers and those who have never tried. The demographic profile of latent demand tends to be younger and more female than the population. Surveys show these golf-interested non-golfers cite several barriers to entry, including the cost and social aspects (no one to play with). The latent demand population is comparable to the golfer population, and NGF estimates as many as 8,500 interested non-golfers in the 5-mile primary market area. Given golf’s tenuous participation situation, all golf courses should have programming aimed at “onboarding” prospective new golfers).

Other Demand Drivers
Supplementing golf demand from permanent residents are: (1) The area’s few corporate and public employers; and (2) Visitors to the Camarillo/Oxnard area. NGF research shows that roughly one-third of all golfers participate in the activity while traveling, playing 0.557 rounds per day of travel. Though CSGC as presently situated would capture only a small proportion of these incremental rounds from visiting golfers, supplemental play from visitors drawn by a strong marketing program could be an important element in making CSGC financially viable, assuming the level of quality was appropriate.

Local Golf Supply
Ventura County is home to 25 total golf facilities (2 fewer than in 2019), including 16 public courses and nine private clubs. This shows how the golf market in this area is dominated by public-access golf, many of which are driven by demand from local golfers residing within defined master- planned golf communities. Of the 18 public facilities, five are at the NGF-defined ‘Premium’ price point (peak riding rates greater than $70), with eight at a ‘Standard’ price ($40-$70), and the remaining three in the ‘Value’ segment (under $40). This is compared to the overall U.S., where 39% of public courses in the country are value (17% in this market).

Like many markets we’ve observed nationally, there has been a reduction in golf supply over the last decade in Ventura County, with a net loss of 81 golf holes. This represents about 17.7% of current existing supply (the U.S. has seen the net closure of about 10.6% of supply over the previous decade). The NGF database shows no new golf courses either in planning or under construction in the local Camarillo market area.

The following table displays data showing the relative supply of golf courses in the various defined market rings and Ventura County overall, with supporting tables found in Appendix B.

Camarillo Area Golf Course Supply within Defined Markets and Ventura County Public

#
Facilities
Total
Public
Facilities
# of
Premium
Facilities
(> $70)
# of
Standard
Facilities
($40-$70)
# of
Value
Facilities
(< $40)
# of
Private
Facilities
Total
Holes
Total
Public
Holes
Total
Private
Holes
2-Mile Radius 2 1 0 1 0 1 36 18 18
5-Mile Radius 2 1 0 1 0 1 36 18 18
10-Mile Radius 11 4 2 2 0 7 207 81 126
Ventura County 25 16 5 8 3 9 459 288 171

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 38 Golf Course Market Supply / Demand Summary
Using the most basic measures of golf demand and supply, we note four possible combinations for any given market area: (1) favorable demand and favorable supply (“potential growth market”); (2) favorable demand and unfavorable supply (“active”); (3) unfavorable demand and favorable supply (“inactive”); and (4) unfavorable demand and unfavorable supply (“saturated”). The review of data for the greater Camarillo area suggests an “active” market, with generally favorable demand ratios and unfavorable supply ratios.

Golfers per 18 holes
NGF has evaluated the relative strength of the Camarillo market with a comparison to a national “threshold” of golfers per golf course within 10 miles of a golf facility. In its 2009 publication “The Future of Public Golf in America,” NGF hypothesized that the best predictor of a public golf course’s success was the number of golfers per 18 holes within a 10-mile radius, with 4,000 identified as a key target for projected financial stability. The NGF has estimated that there are only about 2,910 golfers per 18-hole course in the Camarillo Springs GC market (was 2,093 in 2019), thus lowering chances for success, but improved in the last four years with other course closures. The importance of this metric is mitigated somewhat in markets with a high concentration of golf / residential communities that tend to drive demand directly to built-in golf courses, but further stresses the importance of attracting continued support from non-resident golfers.

LOCAL COMPETITIVE GOLF MARKET
NGF has analyzed the public access golf market in the Camarillo, California market area, with particular emphasis on determining the mix of public golf courses and how a future CSGC might fit in if the facility were to be modified, possibly as a 9 or 12-hole golf course, and possibly with additional short-course (executive or par-3) offering. On the following pages, we list operating information for a group of selected golf facilities in the broader market area, including primary competitors, secondary competitors and other executive or par-3 courses in the local area. This list was not meant to be totally exhaustive or to account for all of the potential public golf competition to CSGC, but rather, to offer a frame of reference in evaluating actual performance of the subject as compared to other golf facilities noted by CSGC staff and NGF as key competition.

Competitive Public Access Golf Facilities Map
The map below shows the relative locations of the facilities selected as comparable to the CSGC.

The list of facilities is intended to be representative, but not exhaustive.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 39 Summary Information
The following tables provide summary information for CSGC and a selection of other comparable / Competitive golf facilities.

Facility Summary Information - Competitors to Camarillo Springs Golf Course Primary Golf Facility City County Type NPI Year
Open Tees Par / Slope1 Front Tee /
Back Tee Miles from
CSGC1
Camarillo Springs Golf Course Camarillo Ventura 18H-DF B 1968 35 72 / 132 5,297 / 6,921 - Olivas Links Golf Course Ventura Ventura 18H-MU A 1960 26 72 / 130 5,348 / 6,818 15.1 Sterling Hills Golf Club Camarillo Ventura 18H-DF B 1999 30 71 / 132 5,482 / 6,813 6.6 Los Robles Greens Golf Course Thousand Oaks Ventura 18H-MU A 1964 32 70 / 126 5,300 / 6,304 6.8 Saticoy Regional Golf Course Ventura Ventura 9H-MU C 1921 15 68 / 106 4,851 / 5,400 11.1 River Ridge Golf Club Oxnard Ventura 36H-MU B 1986 50 12.6 Victoria Lakes Course 18H 72 / 134 5,141 / 7,081
Vineyard Course 18H 72 / 129 4,235 / 6,730
Buenaventura Golf Course Ventura Ventura 18H B 1949 0 72 / 134 4,491 / 5,942 12.8 Secondary Golf Facilities City County Type NPI Year
Open Tees Par / Slope1 Front Tee /
Back Tee
Miles from
CSGC1
Moorpark Country Club Moorpark Ventura 27H-DF A 2002 36 8.9 Canyon Crest / Creekside 72 4,867 / 6,849
Creekside / Ridgeline 72 4,722 / 6,977
Ridgeline / Canyon Crest 72 4,839 / 6,8012
Tierra Rejada Golf Club Moorpark Ventura 18H-DF A 1999 20 72 / 135 5,600 / 7,017 10.1 Knollwood Golf Club Granada Hills Los Angeles 18H-MU B 1956 54 72 / 124 5,670 / 6,385 28.6 Executive/Par-3 Golf Facilities City County Type NPI Year Open Tees Par / Slope1 Front Tee /
Back Tee
Miles from
CSGC1
Westlake Golf Course Westlake Village Ventura 18H/Exec-DF B 1964 42 67 / 106 4,345 / 4,961 10.4 Sinaloa Golf Course Simi Valley Ventura 9H/Par-3-MU C 1950 25 54 / - 2,078 10.6 El Cariso Golf Course Sylmar Los Angeles 18H/Exec-MU B 1977 16 62 / 99 2,738 / 4,604 33.7

1. Air miles from subject site, rounded to half-mile; actual driving distances will likely be greater.

Type: DF – Daily Fee; MU – Municipal
Cat: JG - Just Golf; RD-Residential
NPI: Peak Green Fee with a cart: A - <$70; B - $40-$70; C - >$40 Tees: Number of driving range tee stations

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 40 Local Club Golf Rates (Peak Season) Comparisons 2023

Club

City # of Holes Green Fees & Cart
Prime Time
Green Fees & Cart
Mid-day
Green Fees & Cart
Twilight
Green Fees & Cart
Super Twilight
Green Fees & Cart
Seniors
Green Fees Only
Juniors
Special Player Programs
Green Fees & Cart
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
18Holes
Wkdays/Wkends
Camarillo Springs Golf Course Camarillo 18H-DF $46 / $61 $40 / $50 $26 / $33 $26 / $33 $42 / $56 $20.00 NA Olivas Links Golf Course Ventura 18H-MU $51 / $61
Ventura Cnty Res. $42 / $53
City of Ventura Res. $34 / $45
$30 / $37 $30 / $37 $16 / $20 Must purchase Senior Card for $25 $46/NA
$16 / $16
12pm or later
LoyalTee Program $39 annually
Get Mid-day rates at 11am
Sterling Hills Golf Club Camarillo 18H-DF $46/$61 $36/$50 $26/$39 NA NA $20 / $25 NA Los Robles Greens Golf Course Thousand Oaks 18H-MU $45 / $68 Residents receive 20% off GF NA $25 / $36 NA $40 / NA $31 / $37 Arcis Players Prime membership
Benefits + can buy a resident card
for 20% discounts
Saticoy Regional Golf Course Ventura 9H-MU $21 / $25 $15 / $19 $15 / $19 $11 / $13 $16 / $20 $16 / $20 N/A River Ridge Golf Club Oxnard 36H-MU
Victoria Lakes Course1 18H $55 / $60 NA $40 / $40 Walking $18 / $23 N/A $20 / $15 Twilight $10 / $10
Players Club $46.98 per month
Open-Twi $25/10am-Twi $45
Twi $15/$25
Super Twi $10/$10
Vineyard Course1 18H $45 / $55 NA $35 / $30 walking $15 / $18 NA $20 / $15 Twilight $10 / $11
Players Club $46.98 per month
Open-Twi $25/10am-Twi $45
Twi $15/$25
Super Twi $10/$10
Buenaventura Golf Course3 Ventura 18H-MU
$51 / $61
Ventura Cnty Res. $42 / $53
City of Ventura Res. $34 / $45
$30 / $37 $30 / $37 $16 / $20 Must purchase Senior Card for $25 $46/NA
$16 / $16
12pm or later
LoyalTee Program $39 annually
Get Mid-day rates at 11am
Secondary Golf Facilities
Moorpark Country Club Moorpark 27H-DF $89 / $115 $69 / $85 $69 / $85 NA Must purchase Senior Card for $89 Mon-Thurs $69/Sunday after 2pm $50 N/A Guest of member $69 - $105 Tierra Rejada Golf Club1 Moorpark 18H-DF $82 / $1052 $51 / $68 $34 / $40 NA $40 / NA NA Arcis Prime Member $99 per month – dis. GF + benefits
Knollwood Golf Club Granada Hills 18H-MU $37 / $48 $23 / $29 $23 / $29 $17 / $22 $21.50 / NA $5 / $8 Players Club $46.98 per month Rates $40/$26/$31
Executive/Par-3 Golf Facilities
Westlake Golf Course Westlake Village 18H-DF $36 / $46 NA $21 / $25 $20 / $21 $26 / $29 NA Eagle Card – get $250 in green fee value for $220
Sinaloa Golf Course Simi Valley 9H-MU $13 / $15 NA $9 / $10 $9 / $10 $11 / $13 50% reg. fee Young Adult ages 18-25 25% off; Military 10% off regular fees
El Cariso Golf Course Sylmar 18H/Exec-MU $32 / $38 N/A $21 / $25 $18 / $21 $22 / NA $4.25 / $7 NA Sales Tax is not included in the rate costs

1. Uses online dynamic pricing; multiple pricing options throughout the day

2. There are few premium tee times first thing in the morning at $85, for Arcis Prime members it costs $69

3. Course is closed in 2023 due to flooding

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 41 Local Club Membership Comparisons 2023
Club City # of Holes Limited/Seasonal Unlimited/Annual Cart Fees Limited/Unlimited Single Couple Single Couple Single Junior Pass
Camarillo Springs Golf Course Camarillo 18H-DF Camarillo Springs GC discontinued the season passes in 2021 Olivas Links Golf Course Ventura 18H-MU No membership just loyalty program Loyalty program / earn points for frequent play $16 N/A
Sterling Hills Golf Club Camarillo 18H-DF Weekday Pass $3,175 Twilight Pass $1,800
Weekday Pass
$4,285
Family Twilight
Pass $2,350
$4,390 $6,615 $17 N/A
Los Robles Greens Golf Course Thousand Oaks 18H-MU
$129 per month
full range use - grass
($99 mats)
includes free afternoon
Green Fee
N/A Acris Player’s Prime
membership at $99/mo. $18 N/A
Saticoy Regional Golf Course Ventura 9H-MU N/A N/A N/A N/A $13 N/A River Ridge Golf Club Oxnard 36H-MU Only membership is the players club for $46.98/month ($563.76/yr) $20 N/A Buenaventura Golf Course Ventura 18H-MU No membership just loyalty program Loyalty program / earn points for frequent play $16 N/A
Secondary Golf Facilities
Moorpark Country Club Moorpark 27H-DF No limited memberships Full memberships range
from $3,600 to $8,400 /
year
$25 N/A
Tierra Rejada Golf Club Moorpark 18H-DF Acris Player’s club at $69/mo. Acris Player’s Prime membership at $99/mo. $18 N/A
Knollwood Golf Club Granada Hills 18H-MU Only membership is the players club for $46.98/month ($563.76/yr) $16 N/A Executive/Par-3 Golf Facilities
Westlake Golf Course Westlake Village 18H-DF No memberships – offer the Eagle Card (loyalty program + $250 in green fee value for $220) $14 N/A
Sinaloa Golf Course Simi Valley 9H-MU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A El Cariso Golf Course Sylmar 18H/Exec-MU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 42 Key Findings – Competitive Golf Market
NGF Consulting research indicates the following significant findings for the key primary competitors to Camarillo Springs GC:
 Based on our review, the NGF has identified Sterling Hills GC and Los Robles Greens GC as the most immediate and direct competitors to the Camarillo Springs GC as it is currently configured. The changes proposed for the subject CSGC may change the competition slightly to include some of the shorter, par-3 courses like Westlake and Sinola GCs. The maintenance quality of the two current primary competitors continues to be superior to Camarillo Springs, and thus putting the subject CSGC at a severe market disadvantage in attracting non-local play. The Buenaventura GC has been closed for much of the summer 2023 due to excessive flooding, which may have added activity to Camarillo Springs GC in 2023.  As was the case in most markets nationally, local golf operators reported a general decline in rounds activity after an early 2000s peak, with severe drops in 2006, 2010 and 2013, followed by some recovery in 2015-2019 and very strong recovery in 2021-2023. Rounds activity is now reported at around 50,000 total rounds for 18- hole courses, with the market leader being Olivas Links at about 60,000 reported rounds, followed by River Ridge (83,000 on 36 holes). Sterling Hills in Camarillo reports 41,000 total rounds in 2022. Camarillo Springs GC hosted 52,500 rounds in 2021, before falling back to around 43,000 in 2022.
 Green fees among the competitive set we profiled show a wide range of fees, with the subject CSGC not the lowest-priced 18-hole public golf course in the market, despite its layout and less desirable conditioning. All of the market competitors are offering various forms of discounting for day of week, time of day, juniors and seniors. Considering its various discounts, the subject might be priced a little too high in some time periods, with its peak fee at $60 for a weekend round with cart (Sterling Hills is at $55). We note that the highest green fees in this market appear to have fallen by about 10% since 2021, but other off-peak fees (mid-day, twilight, senior, etc.) remain comparable to the 2021 levels.
 Pre-paid green fee arrangements (memberships) are not at all common at public golf courses in this market, and the subject CSGC discontinued its use of season passes in 2021. The only primary competitor to CSGC that is offering an annual membership is Sterling Hills at $4,390 for an individual and $6,615 for a couple.  The competitive nature of the regional golf marketplaces constraints on the ability to raise fees, and some fees have actually moved lower since 2021. This is evident in the fee structures of the primary competitors; despite some high quality and well- maintained golf courses, all but two of the area’s golf courses keep their peak weekend rates below $61. The only exceptions are Moorpark CC and Tierra Rejada who charges up to $115 for a peak weekend morning before noon on a high-quality golf course.
 None of the area’s public access golf facilities have undergone major renovations in recent years, although other facilities have kept up with minor capital investments such as irrigation improvements and other minor upgrades. Two of the area’s golf courses have made improvements to clubhouse facilities (Sterling Hills and Moorpark CCs). As a result, CSGC continues to lag behind in providing a high quality of golf service for a public course in this market.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 43 12-HOLE GOLF FACILITY DISCUSSION
The proposal for the future of Camarillo Springs GC includes a redevelopment of the existing 18-hole regulation-length golf course into a 12-hole regulation-length golf course. The concept of “regulation-length” in golf simply means a mix of par-4, par-5 and par-3 holes, each at their corresponding regulation length. In golf, shorter golf courses are commonly referred to as “executive” (only par-3 and par-4 holes under 5,000 yards) and “par-3” or “pitch and putt” courses that are all par-3 holes. These shorter versions are less desirable due to the smaller number of golf shot types that can be played. The proposal for CSGC calls for a 12-hole golf course that includes par-3, par-4 and par-5 holes, thus expanding the appeal.

Examples of 12-Hole Courses
Golf courses with only 12 holes are not common in the U.S., but the number is growing. This concept is more common overseas, especially in locations where land is scarce and larger courses cannot fit properly. The NGF counts 27 golf facilities that report having 12 holes of golf (this was 10 in 2019), including two such facilities in California – Hawk’s Landing in Yucca Valley and The Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes in Nipomo. Most of these 12-hole courses (including Monarch Dunes) are appendages to larger golf facilities that include a full regulation- length 18-hole golf course elsewhere on the property. In addition, many of the 12-hole golf courses fit into the shorter category of golf courses (executive or par-3), including the Challenge course at Monarch Dunes, which is a par-3 course with all 12 holes playing as par-3’s.

In summary, the basic concept that is proposed by CSGC ownership is less common in golf, but growing in appeal and customer support where they exist. Most of the 12-hole courses reviewed by NGF tend to appeal to less-skilled players, or other golfers seeking a round of golf with a shorter time commitment. Evaluating actual performance (rounds, revenues, expenses) makes for a difficult comparison as most of these courses are part of larger facilities with multiple courses, and thus direct comparison is challenging due to sharing of ancillary revenue sources (pro shop, F&B, etc.). The NGF did find one direct comparable at Hawk’s Landing in Yucca valley (more detail below) that is a stand-alone 12-hole regulation golf course with appropriate support amenities that was originally an 18-hole course that reduced to 12 holes to free up property for other uses. The performance of this facility presents a strong case that the golfing public will accept a 12-hole alternative, provided high quality is present.

Selected Case Studies – 12-Hole Golf Courses
The NGF has provided a detailed review of two 12-hole golf courses in California – Hawk’s Landing and Monarch Dunes. These two examples represent each of the product types noted above: (1) a short course at Monarch Dunes (all par-3s) that is part of a larger resort golf facility; and (2) a stand-alone regulation-length 12-hole course at Hawk’s Landing with appropriate golf amenities and a full-service clubhouse. A full review of each location is presented below:

Hawk’s Landing Golf Club at Blue Skies – Yucca Valley, CA The Hawk’s Landing Golf Club in Yucca Valley, CA is the most “on point” comparable for the changes at Camarillo Springs GC. Hawk’s Landing is a stand-alone 12-hole golf course with a modern clubhouse and driving range. The facility was originally developed in 1956 as the 18- hole “Blue Skies Country Club and closed due to poor economic performance in 2008. The course sat fallow for seven years and was re-opened in 2015 as the 12-hole Hawk’s Landing that is in operation in 2023. The facility is designed as a regulation-length 12-hole golf course with two six-hole loops (“front six” and “back six”) that can be played in any combination to add a third six to play 18 holes of regulation golf. The 12-hole layout includes two par-5s, two par-3s and eight par-4s.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 44 The Golf Professional at Hawk’s Landing reports that the 12-hole concept has gone over very well with golfers. The course is especially popular with charity tournaments, due to the 12-hole scramble that can be played in 2.5 to 3.0 hours. The club is active in hosting various events and tournaments, including a weekly 12-hole scramble was originally added in 2019 and has expanded to over 100 players. Staff has had the 12-hole Hawk’s Landing rated appropriately by the Southern California Golf Association (SCGA) so golfers who play this course can maintain a proper handicap. The course costs $43/$45 (WD/WE with cart) to play (was $38 in 2021), and golfers can play 12 or 18 holes at that rate. Hawk’s Landing has attracted 105 members and has reached 40,000 rounds in 2021 before falling back to around 35,000 rounds in 2022. This is particularly impressive given that there is no immediate housing community around the course and the Yucca Valley area is generally very small. The course attracts its play from members, tournaments and some tourist / visitor play from Palm Springs resorts.

Staff reports total golf revenue around $850,000 on 40,000 total rounds in 2021. The maintenance staff includes a total of six members, including a full-time GCSAA superintendent.

The operations staff is led by a full-time General Manager and a full-time PGA Head Professional. All other staff is part-time, including a food and beverage manager and part-time chef. The total operating expense is estimated to be about 75% of a comparable 18-hole course at the same location.

The Challenge Course at Monarch Dunes – Nipomo, CA
Monarch Dunes Golf Club is a large golf residential and resort community in Nipomo, CA, approximately 100 miles north of Camarillo. The facility is a full-service golf club facility that is part of a residential community of several hundred homes and includes a championship 18-hole golf course (“Old Course”), 12-hole “Challenge” Course, driving range and full clubhouse with restaurant and banquet facilities. The 12-hole Challenge course was designed by Damian Pascuzzo (same architect leading the Camarillo Springs re-design) and includes 12 par-3 holes ranging in length from 55 to 240 yards and a total length of about 1,700 yards. As all holes are par-3, this course would be classified as a “par-3” or a “pitch & putt” golf course. Monarch Dunes reports a total of about 27,000 rounds and $775,000 in green/cart fee revenue on the Challenge course in 2022.

The Challenge course was designed with many features to enhance its flexibility. First, the course includes a design allowing for 3, 6, or 9 holes to be played easily, allowing for a variety of golf play options. Second, each hole has multiple tee boxes and extra-large greens that allow golfers who want to play more holes the flexibility of seeing different tee locations and possible pin positions. The course is operated and maintained to a high standard and the condition of the greens matches the larger championship course. The Challenge Course is also routed through a dense section of homes in the development, showing that a short course can be used to provide a residential view amenity and support golf-frontage home values.

The General Manager reports the Challenge course is a popular offering at Monarch Dunes, especially with less-skilled golf players and beginners. The course costs $28 to play (walking) or $45 with a cart (was $18/$29 in 2019). Staff reported that more serious golfers were initially reluctant to play the Challenge course but have warmed to it after several rounds and now like the venue for its shorter time commitment and to practice. The course has been very popular with ladies and senior players, and some leagues requested that some of their events be moved to the Challenge course. The course is a great walking course, and staff reports about 50% of play use carts (compared to 90% on the Old Course). One challenge reported was managing the tee sheet for golfers who want to play 18 holes, making sure the first six holes are open when the 18-hole players finish the 12th hole and want to play an additional six holes. This tee sheet management is seen as key to maximizing rounds and revenue on the challenge course.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 45

EXTERNAL FACTORS SUMMARY
The NGF market analysis shows that while golf is not a particularly important component in the greater Camarillo area, there is a contingent of resident and visiting golfers to support area golf courses, and these golfers showed strong demand in the last three years of a mini “covid boom” in golf. Still, despite the improvement in the Camarillo golf market since 2020, there are just not enough golfers to fully support all public golf courses in the area. What is needed is some catalyst to develop a new generation of golfers to support local courses, and the changes proposed for the subject CSGC could fit appropriately as an ideal golf player development facility. The NGF has also observed that the other public golf courses in this market are themselves struggling to retain patrons. As such, the NGF has a reasonable expectation that while the market will provide support for continued operation of a public golf facility in Camarillo, sustaining the recent growth is unlikely unless some upgrade is made to CSGC to allow it to differentiate itself in a crowded and competitive golf market. Other key market findings:
 The overriding trends in the golf industry will present challenges to CSGC in continuing golf course operations. The total number of golfers in Camarillo has declined since 2019 and total spending on golf is declining as well. Similarly, the cost to maintain and operate golf courses had increased (equipment, labor, resources, etc.), leading to a difficult economic environment for golf courses.  The Camarillo area economy is driven by growing employment opportunities and both in-flow and out-flow commuting patterns. The subject CSGC is immediately proximate to key Camarillo economic drivers and the immediate proximity to Highway 101 adds to the potential market draw for the facility. Generating golf from visitors to Camarillo will be key to sustaining golf operations at CSGC, as local resident demand is likely not enough to support operations.  The overall balance between supply and demand for public golf is unfavorable in the Camarillo area. There are far fewer households and golfers available to support each golf course in the market when compared to a national standard. NGF estimates that there are about 2,900 golfers for each course in the local Camarillo market, far fewer than the 4,000 golfers that is the NGF-defined success threshold.  Other competitive golf courses in the market have experienced increased activity in 2020-2021 but have fallen back in 2022-2023. This is evidenced by considerable discounting that is now prevalent in this public golf market compared to NGF reviews in 2019 and 2021. In a longer-term trend, golf has had difficulty in attracting younger players to offset the natural attrition of older players. The changes proposed to make the subject Camarillo Springs a shorter golf course with a reduced time commitment could help to off-set this decline in golf demand.  The amenities at CSGC are clearly inferior to its immediate competitive set of golf courses. These competitive golf courses operate within a varied range of fees, with the subject CSGC in the middle to lower end of public golf courses. The competitive nature of the regional golf market puts constraints on the ability to raise fees, and almost all public golf in this market has a peak fee below $75.  There are two 12-hole golf facilities located within 125 miles of CSGC that offer examples of successful operation with this golf configuration. One of the facilities, Hawk’s landing in Yucca Valley, provides a direct comparable to CSGC with successful economics on a former 18-hole residential golf facility that was closed due to obsolete infrastructure, and then re-opened as a new 12-hole golf course with considerable consumer acceptance.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 46 Analysis of Expected Camarillo Springs Golf
Course Financial Performance
Based on NGF analysis of the market and the proposed changes to Camarillo Springs GC, the consultants have prepared financial projections to show the potential economic performance of CSGC under three different options for its future – either continuing “as-is” or changing to a 9- hole or 12-hole configuration. All NGF projections are based on a set of assumptions that may or may not become reality, but the two alteration scenarios (9-H or 12-H) each assume significant upgrade to the property condition. We feel that these estimates represent the best effort to create a “fair estimate” for the optimum performance of this facility based on our complete review of the operation and market environment.

The NGF projections assume that if the changes proposed for CSGC are completed, the newly renovated 9-H or 12-H facility would open under its new configuration in early 2025, with all elements open and available at the time of completion. NGF has assumed that competent professional management will remain in place at CSGC through the end of 2027, regardless of whether the new configuration is completed, or the facility remains in its current condition. This professional management is then assumed to adopt recommendations related to maximizing performance of CSGC, including improved physical conditions (in 9-H or 12-H scenarios), improved marketing, enhancing operations and actively seeking to grow golf activity and revenue. The NGF does expect that facility revenue can be enhanced with the upgrades proposed by the facility owner, but strategic marketing to increase awareness and value of CSGC will be key to fulfillment of revenue projections.

SUMMARY OF CAMARILLO SPRINGS GC PROJECTIONS
NGF has prepared a projection based on expected performance in a “normal” environment and the implementation of various alteration plans as described in this review. In the section that follows, the NGF provides a fair estimate of future Camarillo Springs GC performance under three distinct physical configurations:
 18-hole golf course and clubhouse (current configuration);  9-hole golf course and clubhouse; and
 12-hole golf course and clubhouse.

The projections made for the operation of CSGC under either of the two upgrade configurations assume the most ideal physical and operational conditions for the first three years after completion of proposed changes (through 2027). If CSGC is to continue as an 18-hole golf course, it is assumed that no significant upgrade will be completed due to lack of capital that is assumed to be raised from land deals that could be completed with excess property derived from reduction to 9 or 12 holes. In the completion of any alteration project, the NGF assumes the previously noted schedule of improvements, with the existing course closing at the end of 2023 and then with a new 9-hole or 12-hole golf course and clubhouse opening January 2025. If the facility remains as is, the NGF assumes the course is open through the entire five-year period. As these upgrades will be completed several years into the future, the NGF has provided its financial estimates using “2023 dollars” for simplicity. Other key assumptions in the NGF projections are presented for each scenario in the following section.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 47 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – As-Is 18-Hole Course (2023-2027) In the tables that follow, NGF provides summary projections for CSGC if it were to continue “as is,” with no upgrade or renovation program. Under this scenario, the facility is expected to continue its deterioration, with operation and maintenance becoming more expensive as basic systems continue to be stressed. The NGF projection assumes basic repairs for equipment, irrigation and clubhouse systems become more and more frequent, leading to increased operating expenses. It is also assumed that the annual debt service of $640,000 would continue throughout the five-year estimate, as there is no alternate source of capital to retire the debt.

Basic Assumptions – CSGC Performance – 18-Hole As-Is (2023-2027) The projections made for the operation of CSGC assume the challenges noted above and the continued operation by professional third-party management. As this projection estimates future performance, the NGF has provided its financial estimates using “2023 dollars” for simplicity.

Other key assumptions in the NGF projections:
 The overall economic condition remains stable, without any sizable increase or decrease in the Camarillo area economy, employment, or visitation. Additionally, the recent improvement in activity experienced by CSGC in 2020-22 helps establish a new “normal” for golf activity and revenue.  Camarillo Springs GC will continue with its current basic operating profile, with professional 3rd party management and comparable senior staff and supporting personnel. CSGC will employ golf professionals and a maintenance superintendent with appropriate PGA and GCSAA certifications.
 The existing clubhouse remains in use, with its condition and service limitations (bar / restaurant remain closed). All space allocations remain as is, including retail, food and beverage service areas. CSGC will offer basic outside food and beverage service with no ability to host any events, parties or banquets.  The momentum in rounds and revenue performance experienced in 2020-2022 is assumed to stall slightly in 2023, with declines continuing through 2027, but still be higher than 2018 and 2019. NGF anticipates that the membership at CSGC that was discontinued in 2021 will no longer be offered and CSGC will continue in this projection as a full daily fee facility (as current) with all activity on an individual pay- for-play basis.
 NGF has assumed a schedule of rounds with expected decline in activity over the next five years. Total rounds in each of the five years shown are higher than actual rounds hosted in 2018 and 2019 and reflect heightened golf demand in 2020-22 (decline is expected in 2023). The rounds activity projected by NGF assume a new “stable” level of activity, with some years falling below and some years rising above this expected ‘average’ figure. Cart rounds are projected at 75% of total rounds.

The projected activity by type through 2027:

Camarillo Springs GC 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Premium Rounds 16,000 14,000 14,000 13,500 13,000
Off-Peak Rounds 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,500 13,000
9-H Rounds 8,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000
Total Rounds 40,000 37,000 36,000 34,000 33,000
Power Cart Rounds** 30,000 27,800 27,000 25,500 24,800 *2023 is projected based on actual through May 31, 2023. **Cart rounds 75% of total.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 48  NGF has estimated the revenue potential of the facility using a baseline average revenue per round for daily fee players derived from the current (2023) fee schedule presented earlier. Additional revenue items such as range and merchandise sales are based on recent historic earnings at CSGC. F&B revenue assumes only outside service through 2027 due to clubhouse condition issues. NGF has assumed slight increases in golf playing fees every year to keep up with inflation, but mindful of declining conditions and a limited ability to raise fees. We have assumed an annual increase of 2.5% on green and all associated ancillary revenue to reflect of a program of annual increases and inflation:

Blended Average Revenue
per Round/Member 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Premium Rounds $36.00 $36.90 $37.82 $38.77 $39.74
Off-Peak Rounds $24.00 $24.60 $25.22 $25.85 $26.49
9-H Rounds $15.00 $15.38 $15.76 $16.15 $16.56
Avg. Cart Fee/Cart Round $10.67 $10.94 $11.21 $11.49 $11.78 Ancillary Revenue / Round
Driving Range $2.75 $2.82 $2.89 $2.96 $3.04
Merchandise $1.25 $1.28 $1.31 $1.35 $1.38
Food / Restaurant $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
F&B Outside $4.00 $4.10 $4.20 $4.31 $4.42
Other/Misc. $0.20 $0.21 $0.21 $0.22 $0.22
 The direct cost of sales for merchandise is held at 50% (historic rate at CSGC).

Total cost of sales on F&B is estimated at the standard 35% of total gross sales (assumes snack bar / outside service only).
 NGF has assumed continuation of the current (June 2023) personnel and staffing program through 2027. The historical total labor expense is increased at 5.0% per year for inflation.
 Expenses for supplies, utilities, equipment and contract services are set at levels comparable to 2018-2020 budgets. Annual increases are assumed at 4.0% to reflect continued system deterioration and the repairs of equipment, irrigation and clubhouse systems become more frequent.
 CSGC will continue to lease carts at the current rate ($94,000), subject to 4.0% annual inflation.
 The management fee expense is set at a fixed $7,000 per month ($84,000 per year) for the full five-year projection.
 Additional miscellaneous expenses are estimated at $75,000 (comparable to actual in 2020) with 4.0% annual inflation.
 As was the case in recent years, this economic performance does not allow for any new capital investment and the 10% reserve for replacement is not able to be funded at any time over the next five years.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 49 Economic Performance Projections – 18-Hole As-Is Configuration NGF Consulting has utilized the previously mentioned assumptions to create the cash flow model for Camarillo Springs GC for the next five years of operation, assuming no change to the property. All figures have been rounded to the nearest $100 for simplicity.

Projected Cash Flow Analysis
Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Base Assumptions – 18-Hole Golf Course ‘As-Is’ Operation 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Total Rounds 40,000 37,000 36,000 34,000 33,000
Revenue
Green Fees $1,080,000 $1,008,600 $1,008,600 $985,400 $976,900 Cart Fees 320,100 304,000 302,700 293,000 292,100
Driving Range 110,000 104,300 104,000 100,700 100,200 Merchandise 50,000 47,400 47,300 45,800 45,500
F&B On Course 160,000 151,700 151,300 146,500 145,700 Other 8,000 7,600 7,600 7,300 7,300
Total Revenue $1,728,100 $1,623,600 $1,621,500 $1,578,700 $1,567,700 Less Cost of Sales: (COS)
Merchandise $25,000 $23,700 $23,700 $22,900 $22,800 F & B $56,000 $53,100 $53,000 $51,300 $51,000
Total COS $81,000 $76,800 $76,700 $74,200 $73,800
Gross Margin $1,647,100 $1,546,800 $1,544,800 $1,504,500 $1,493,900 Operating Expenses
Payroll
Golf Operations $340,000 $357,000 $374,900 $393,600 $413,300 Golf Maintenance 350,000 367,500 385,900 405,200 425,500 Food & Beverage 15,000 15,800 16,600 17,400 18,300
General & Admin 100,000 105,000 110,300 115,800 121,600 Total Payroll $805,000 $845,300 $887,700 $932,000 $978,700 Golf Operations 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,100 29,200
Golf Maintenance 135,000 140,400 146,000 151,800 157,900 Utilities 52,000 54,100 56,300 58,600 60,900
G&A 125,000 130,000 135,200 140,600 146,200
F&B 15,000 15,600 16,200 16,800 17,500
Marketing 20,000 20,800 21,600 22,500 23,400
Clubhouse 42,000 43,700 45,400 47,200 49,100
GL Insurance 62,000 64,500 67,100 69,800 72,600
Equipment lease 20,000 20,800 21,600 22,500 23,400
cart lease 94,000 97,800 101,700 105,800 110,000
Misc 75,000 78,000 81,100 84,300 87,700
Management Fee 84,000 87,400 90,900 94,500 98,300
Total $1,554,000 $1,624,400 $1,697,800 $1,774,500 $1,854,900 Net Income before Other (Loss) $93,100 ($77,600) ($153,000) ($270,000) ($361,000) Debt Service $640,000 $640,000 $640,000 $640,000 $640,000 Real Estate Tax $60,000 $62,400 $64,900 $67,500 $70,200 Capital Reserve (10% non-labor exp.) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Facility Net Income ($606,900) ($780,000) ($857,900) ($977,500) ($1,071,200)

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 50 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – 12-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) The primary renovation plan put forth by Camarillo Springs ownership involves changing the golf course from 18 to 12 holes, all of which would be located on what is now holes #1-11 and #18, with remaining acreage to be redeveloped into residential and other open or park spaces. The new 12-hole course concept has been professionally designed by the popular golf architect Damian Pascuzzo, and will contain all features and design elements commonly associated with high quality golf. This configuration will also include a renovated and modernized clubhouse.

The NGF projection assumes that this renovation concept will include appropriate capital to complete the renovation, install modern systems for equipment, irrigation and facilities, allowing for a much greater level of efficiency in CSGC operations. It is also assumed that the annual debt service of $640,000 would be eliminated beginning in 2024. CSGC would continue to operate as is through the end of 2023, be closed for renovation in 2024, and re-open with all 12 holes of golf and new clubhouse in place on January 1, 2025.

In the tables that follow, NGF provides summary projections for CSGC under the expectation that the facility will be modified into a high-quality 12-hole golf course plus enhanced clubhouse.

The NGF projection does not include any debt service or direct capital costs to complete any upgrades being considered, as these are assumed to be funded through the capital derived from alternate uses of property freed up from the removal of six golf holes on the north side of the property (currently holes #12-17).

Basic Assumptions – CSGC Performance – 12-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) The projections made for the operation of CSGC assume the most ideal physical and operational conditions upon re-opening in January 2025. As this projection estimates future performance, the NGF has provided its financial estimates using “2023 dollars” for simplicity.

Other key assumptions in the NGF projections for a 12-hole course:
 The overall economic condition remains stable, without any sizable increase or decrease in the Camarillo area economy, employment, or visitation.  Camarillo Springs GC will continue with its current basic operating profile, with professional 3rd party management and comparable senior staff and supporting personnel. CSGC will employ golf professionals and a maintenance superintendent with appropriate PGA and GCSAA certifications.
 The projections match the proposed timing of this renovation, with 2023 operation as is (matches previous estimate), full facility closure in 2024, and re-open with all elements in place in 2025.
 The facility will add a full-time chef and banquet manager, plus additional marketing support from the operator focusing on marketing and attracting increased share of golf rounds, range use and Grill sales. CSGC will employ golf professionals and a maintenance superintendent with appropriate PGA and GCSAA certifications. The maintenance staff is expected to be reduced by 1.0-1.5 full-time greenskeepers.
 The facility will adopt a new price schedule for memberships and daily fee golf – all divided between 18-hole, 12-hole and other rounds of golf. NGF has assumed slight increases in golf playing fees each year to keep up with inflation (2.5%), and a return to membership with a new season pass offering starting at around $2,600 per year.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 51  NGF has assumed a schedule of rounds with an expectation of growth as renovations are introduced to the market beginning in 2025 and reflect heightened golf demand observed in 2020-2022. The rounds and membership activity projected by NGF assume a new “stable” level of activity, with some years falling below and some years rising above this expected ‘average’ figure. With more rounds played at shorter than 18 holes, cart rounds are projected at 60% of total rounds. The projected activity by type through 2027:

Camarillo Springs GC As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Number of Members 0 0 30 35 40
Passholder Rounds** 0 0 3,000 3,500 4,000
18-H Rounds (prev. Peak) 16,000 0 9,500 10,000 10,500 12-H Rounds (prev. Off-Peak) 16,000 13,000 13,500 14,000 9-H Rounds 8,000 0 6,000 6,500 7,000
6-H Rounds 0 0 6,000 6,500 7,000
Total Rounds 40,000 0 37,500 40,000 42,500
Power Cart Rounds** 30,000 0 22,500 24,000 25,500
*Same as 18-hole ‘as-is’ projection presented earlier. **passholder rounds at 100 per pass per year + 60% cart rounds starting in 2025.  NGF has estimated the revenue potential of the facility using a baseline average revenue per round for daily fee players and per member for annual pass fees derived from the fee schedule presented earlier. Additional revenue items such as range and shop sales are based on historic earnings at CSGC with enhancements to reflect improved conditions. F&B revenue assumes only outside service through 2023, no service in 2024 and re-opening with full service and full accessibility in January 2025.

Banquet revenues assume income derived from only the largest banquets and parties hosted at the facility. We have assumed an annual increase of 2.5% per year to reflect of a program of annual increases and inflation:

As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open
Blended Average Revenue
per Round/Member 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Member Dues / Member 0 $2,600 $2,665 $2,732
18-H Rounds (prev. Peak) $36.00 $36.00 $36.90 $37.82 12-H Rounds (prev. Off-Peak) $24.00 $26.00 $26.65 $27.32 9-H Rounds $15.00 $17.00 $17.43 $17.86
6-H Rounds $7.00 $7.18 $7.35
Avg. Cart Fee/Cart Round $10.67 $11.00 $11.28 $11.56 Ancillary Revenue / Round
Driving Range $2.75 $4.00 $4.10 $4.20
Merchandise $1.25 $2.00 $2.05 $2.10
Food / Restaurant $0.00 $6.00 $6.15 $6.30
F&B Outside $4.00 $2.00 $2.05 $2.10
Other/Misc. $0.20 $0.30 $0.31 $0.32
Banquets
No. of Banquets 0 15 25 30
Avg. Revenue per Banquet $0 $8,000 $8,200 $8,400
*Same as 18-hole ‘as-is’ projection presented earlier.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 52  The direct cost of sales for merchandise is held at 50% (historic rate at CSGC).

Total cost of sales on F&B is estimated at the standard 45% of total gross sales.  NGF has adjusted personnel expense to reflect new positions required for the operation, as well as some maintenance position changes. The historical total labor expense has been increased by $80,000 (including benefits) beginning in 2025 to reflect increased costs.
 Beginning in 2025, CSGC expenses will include a lease for new maintenance equipment at $5,000 per month = $60,000 for the year.
 Beginning in 2025, CSGC expenses will include a lease for new carts at $6,000 per month = $72,000 for the year.
 Utilities expense is reduced to $40,000 for 2025.
 The management fee expense is set at a fixed $7,000 per month ($84,000 per year) beginning in 2025 with 2.5% annual inflation through 2027.  NGF assumes some level of administrative oversight, staff salaries, maintenance support, supplies and utilities during the construction in 2022. Total expenses for 2024 are estimated at $295,000. It is assumed that debt service will be discontinued in 2024 as well.
 NGF has added an additional capital reserve to address unforeseen repairs or to prevent the accrual of deferred maintenance of 5.0% of total non-labor expenses (excluding cost of sales) beginning in 2025.
 All expenses are projected to increase at 5.0% per year (all labor expense) and

4.0% for all other (non-labor) expenses through 2027.

Economic Performance Projections – 12-Hole Configuration NGF Consulting has utilized the previously mentioned assumptions to create the cash flow model for Camarillo Springs GC for the next five years of operation, and assuming extensive facility renovation and upgrade in 2024 with re-opening in 2025. All figures have been rounded to the nearest $100 for simplicity.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 53 Projected Cash Flow Analysis
Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Base Assumptions – 12-Hole Golf Course and New Clubhouse As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open
2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Total Rounds 40,000 0 37,500 40,000 42,500
Revenue
Green Fees $1,080,000 $0 $824,000 $888,700 $956,100 Cart Fees 320,100 0 247,500 270,600 294,700
Driving Range 110,000 0 150,000 164,000 178,600
Merchandise 50,000 0 75,000 82,000 89,300
F&B On Course 160,000 0 75,000 82,000 89,300
Restaurant 0 0 225,000 246,000 267,900
Banquets 0 0 120,000 205,000 252,000
Passes / Members 0 0 78,000 93,300 109,300
Other 8,000 0 11,300 12,300 13,400
Total Revenue $1,728,100 $0 $1,805,800 $2,043,900 $2,250,600 Less Cost of Sales: (COS)
Merchandise $25,000 $0 $37,500 $41,000 $44,700
F & B $56,000 $0 $135,000 $147,600 $160,700
Total COS $81,000 $0 $172,500 $188,600 $205,400
Gross Margin $1,647,100 $0 $1,544,800 $1,504,500 $1,493,900 Operating Expenses
Payroll
Golf Operations $340,000 $0 $365,000 $383,300 $402,500 Golf Maintenance 350,000 100,000 360,000 378,000 396,900 Food & Beverage 15,000 0 40,000 42,000 44,100
General & Admin 100,000 50,000 120,000 126,000 132,300 Total Payroll $805,000 $150,000 $885,000 $929,300 $975,800 Golf Operations 25,000 0 30,000 31,200 32,400
Golf Maintenance 135,000 50,000 150,000 156,000 162,200 Utilities 52,000 25,000 40,000 41,600 43,300
G&A 125,000 0 125,000 130,000 135,200
F&B 15,000 0 15,000 15,600 16,200
Marketing 20,000 10,000 25,000 26,000 27,000
Clubhouse 42,000 10,000 42,000 43,700 45,400
GL Insurance 62,000 50,000 62,000 64,500 67,100
Equipment lease 20,000 0 60,000 62,400 64,900
cart lease 94,000 0 72,000 74,900 77,900
Misc 75,000 0 60,000 62,400 64,900
Management Fee 84,000 0 84,000 87,400 90,900
Total $1,554,000 $295,000 $1,650,000 $1,725,000 $1,803,200 Net Income before Other (Loss) $93,100 ($295,000) ($16,700) $130,300 $242,000 Debt Service $640,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Real Estate Tax $60,000 $62,400 $64,900 $67,500 $70,200 Capital Reserve (10% non-labor exp.) $0 $0 $38,300 $39,800 $41,400 Facility Net Income ($606,900) ($357,400) ($119,900) $23,000 $130,400

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 54 Camarillo Springs GC Performance – 9-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) The final option for ownership to consider involves changing the golf course from 18 to 9 holes, all of which would be located on the same portion of property as in the previous concept.

Ownership has not presented a formal 9-hole design to NGF, but it is assumed that the layout would closely follow the 12-hole concept and include all features and design elements commonly associated with high quality golf. This configuration will also include a renovated and modernized clubhouse. This renovation concept is also expected to include appropriate capital for modernizing systems and equipment and eliminating the debt service. CSGC would continue to operate as is through the end of 2023, be closed for renovation in 2024, and re-open with all nine holes of golf and new clubhouse in place on January 1, 2025.

Basic Assumptions – CSGC Performance – 9-Hole Configuration (2023-2027) The projections made for the operation of a 9-hole CSGC assume ideal operational conditions and involve a greater expansion of practice amenities given the additional property. As this projection estimates future performance, the NGF has provided its financial estimates using “2023 dollars” for simplicity. Other key assumptions in the NGF projections for a 9-hole course:
 This estimate includes all previous assumptions related to the local economic condition, third-party professional management and comparable senior staff and supporting personnel.
 The clubhouse operation on the 9-hole concept is identical to the 12-hole concept, and thus the additional staff for banquet / F&B support will be included. The operator will enhance the focus on marketing to attract an increased share of golf rounds, range use and Grill sales. CSGC will employ golf professionals and a maintenance superintendent with appropriate PGA and GCSAA certifications.  The previously presented pricing structure will be implemented, with a new price schedule for memberships and daily fee golf. Fees will include a 9-hole rate and 18-hole rate (play the 9 holes two times).
 NGF has assumed a schedule of rounds with an expectation of growth as renovations are introduced to the market beginning in 2025 and reflect heightened golf demand observed in 2020-2022. The rounds and membership activity projected by NGF consider limitations posed by 9-hole courses and the smaller inventory of rounds available to sell. The result is a lower level of total rounds that would be the new “stable” level of activity, with some years falling below and some years rising above this expected ‘average’ figure. With more 9-hole (shorter) rounds played, cart rounds are projected at 50% of total rounds. The projected activity by type through 2027:

Camarillo Springs GC As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Number of Members 0 0 30 35 40
Passholder Rounds** 0 0 2,400 2,800 3,200
Premium Rounds 16,000 0 11,500 12,000 12,500
Off-Peak Rounds 16,000 11,500 12,000 12,500
Discount Rounds 8,000 0 7,500 8,000 8,000
Total Rounds 40,000 0 32,900 34,800 36,200
Power Cart Rounds** 30,000 0 15,300 16,000 16,500
*Same as 18-hole ‘as-is’ projection presented earlier. **passholder rounds at 80 per pass per year + 50% cart rounds starting in 2025.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 55  NGF has estimated the average revenue per round and per member for annual pass fees derived from the fee schedule presented earlier. F&B revenue assumes limited service through 2023, no service in 2024 and re-opening with full service and full accessibility in January 2025. Membership at a 9-hole course is estimated to be about 60% of the 12-hole concept, or $1,560 for CSGC. The fees are expected to be comparable to the 12-hole option, but the course will have a lower average cart revenue with more 9-hole (walking) rounds and lower average merchandise sales.

Driving range revenue is comparable to the 12-hole design with a larger range facility. Banquet revenues assume income derived from only the largest banquets and parties. We have assumed an annual increase of 2.5% per year to reflect of a program of annual increases and inflation:

As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open
Blended Average Revenue
per Round/Member 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Member Dues / Member 0 $1,560.00 $1,600.00 $1,640.00 Premium Rounds $36.00 $26.00 $26.65 $27.32
Off-Peak Rounds $24.00 $15.00 $15.38 $15.76
Discount Rounds $7.00 $7.18 $7.35
Avg. Cart Fee/Cart Round $10.67 $11.00 $11.28 $11.56 Ancillary Revenue / Round
Driving Range $2.75 $4.00 $4.10 $4.20
Merchandise $1.25 $1.25 $1.28 $1.31
Food / Restaurant $0.00 $6.00 $6.15 $6.30
F&B Outside $4.00 $2.00 $2.05 $2.10
Other/Misc. $0.20 $0.30 $0.31 $0.32
Banquets
No. of Banquets 0 15 25 30
Avg. Revenue per Banquet $0 $8,000 $8,200 $8,400
*Same as 18-hole ‘as-is’ projection presented earlier.
 The direct cost of sales for merchandise is held at 50% (historic rate at CSGC).

Total cost of sales on F&B is estimated at the standard 45% of total gross sales.  Total personnel expense is assumed to match the 12-hole design concept, adding an estimated $80,000 (including benefits) beginning in 2025.  Other operating and maintenance expenses have been estimated at 80% of the 12-hole to reflect a slightly smaller golf course and fewer maintained acres of golf.  The equipment lease estimate is a match to the 12-hole option, while the cart lease is reduced to $54,000 per year to reflect a smaller cart fleet.  Total expenses for 2024 are estimated at $295,000 to support construction. It is assumed that debt service will be discontinued in 2024 as well.  NGF has added an additional capital reserve of 5.0% of total non-labor expenses (excluding cost of sales) beginning in 2025.
 All expenses are projected to increase at 5.0% per year (all labor expense) and

4.0% for all other (non-labor) expenses through 2027.

Economic Performance Projections – 9-Hole Configuration The cash flow model for Camarillo Springs GC for the next five years of operation appears below. All figures have been rounded to the nearest $100 for simplicity.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 56 Projected Cash Flow Analysis
Camarillo Springs Golf Course
Base Assumptions – 9-Hole Golf Course and New Clubhouse As Is Closed All Renovated Elements Open
2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027
Total Rounds 40,000 0 32,900 34,800 36,200
Revenue
Green Fees $1,080,000 $0 $524,000 $561,700 $597,300 Cart Fees 320,100 0 168,300 180,400 190,700
Driving Range 110,000 0 131,600 142,700 152,100
Merchandise 50,000 0 41,100 44,600 47,500
F&B On Course 160,000 0 65,800 71,300 76,100
Restaurant 0 0 197,400 214,000 228,200
Banquets 0 0 120,000 205,000 252,000
Passes / Members 0 0 46,800 56,000 65,600
Other 8,000 0 9,900 10,700 11,400
Total Revenue $1,728,100 $0 $1,304,900 $1,486,400 $1,620,900 Less Cost of Sales: (COS)
Merchandise $25,000 $0 $20,600 $22,300 $23,800
F & B $56,000 $0 $118,400 $128,400 $136,900
Total COS $81,000 $0 $139,000 $150,700 $160,700
Gross Margin $1,647,100 $0 $1,165,900 $1,335,700 $1,460,200 Operating Expenses
Payroll
Golf Operations $340,000 $0 $365,000 $383,300 $402,500 Golf Maintenance 350,000 100,000 350,000 367,500 385,900 Food & Beverage 15,000 0 40,000 42,000 44,100
General & Admin 100,000 50,000 110,000 115,500 121,300 Total Payroll $805,000 $150,000 $865,000 $908,300 $953,800 Golf Operations 25,000 0 20,000 20,800 21,600
Golf Maintenance 135,000 50,000 120,000 124,800 129,800 Utilities 52,000 25,000 40,000 41,600 43,300
G&A 125,000 0 110,000 114,400 119,000
F&B 15,000 0 15,000 15,600 16,200
Marketing 20,000 10,000 25,000 26,000 27,000
Clubhouse 42,000 10,000 42,000 43,700 45,400
GL Insurance 62,000 50,000 62,000 64,500 67,100
Equipment lease 20,000 0 60,000 62,400 64,900
cart lease 94,000 0 54,000 56,200 58,400
Misc 75,000 0 40,000 41,600 43,300
Management Fee 84,000 0 48,000 49,900 51,900
Total $1,554,000 $295,000 $1,501,000 $1,569,800 $1,641,700 Net Income before Other (Loss) $93,100 ($295,000) ($335,100) ($234,100) ($181,500) Debt Service $640,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Real Estate Tax $60,000 $62,400 $64,900 $67,500 $70,200 Capital Reserve (10% non-labor exp.) $0 $0 $31,800 $33,100 $34,400 Facility Net Income ($606,900) ($357,400) ($431,800) ($334,700) ($286,100)

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 57 SUMMARY DISCUSSION – NGF PROJECTIONS
The results of the NGF financial projection analysis show that some form of renovation is needed to enable Camarillo Springs GC to meet all its fiscal obligations and provide a level of long-term sustainability with future capital reserves. The analysis shows that renovation to either a 9-hole or 12-hole golf course will be a major improvement from the existing 18-hole layout, but only the 12-hole option provides a chance for real profitability on the Camarillo Springs GC operation. The improvement is largely driven by new revenue opportunities, having the capital to address failing infrastructure and the elimination of over $640,000 per year in debt service.

The completion of changes proposed for Camarillo Springs GC, plus the adoption of a new business and marketing model, will allow CSGC to retain or grow its basic golf revenue position.

The key area where revenue will increase substantially is in the clubhouse operation, where new and improved F&B venues allow for increased sales plus the presence of an active banquet calendar. This increased revenue should allow the CSGC owners to cover all direct operating expenses and provide for capital improvement funding beginning in 2026.

The projections developed for this review show that even with the improvement CSGC achieved in the last three years (2020-2023), continuing as an 18-hole golf course without addressing key infrastructure challenges will only delay the inevitable system failure. With growth to over 52,000 rounds in the Covid-19 environment of 2021, CSGC was still not able to cover all its obligations or set aside funds to address aging and failing basic systems. We also note that despite the “spike” in activity and revenue in 2021, CSGC rounds and revenue have fallen back in 2022 and 2023 to a level that appears to be higher than in 2018 and 2019 but not at the level of 2020 and 2021. The NGF does not see any scenario where CSGC can sustain its operation without some new influx of at least $6.8 million to correct ongoing systemic problems with the golf course and clubhouse.

The plan to remodel the golf course into a 9-hole or 12-hole layout will free up property that can be monetized and provide needed capital to repair CSGC and provide long-term sustainability to the facility. Still, even with this projected increase in performance, the owners may find that the while the new revenue will be enough to sustain operations and set aside some small amount for future capital, the facility’s revenue will not be sufficient to cover the $6.8 million+ investment required to renovate and upgrade the golf course and clubhouse. That level of capital investment will have to come from another source, most likely the premiums earned from alternate uses of property freed up from the removal of six golf holes on the north side of the property (currently holes #12-17).

The NGF financial projection analysis shows that the completion of proposed improvements should allow Camarillo Springs GC to improve operations and generate total revenue in the range of $1.62 million (9-H) to $2.25 million (12-H) by 2027. In review of NGF estimates, it is clear that the 12-hole option provides better economic return when the two renovation options are compared. This is due to the increased capacity in the 12-hole option and the ability to sell a wide variety of 18, 12, 9 and 6-hole rounds. The NGF has chosen to present our estimates in a conservative fashion so as to provide a base level of projection for decision-making purposes and for comparison to potential opportunities. A summary of the three scenarios estimated by NGF for 2025 and 2027 are presented in the table on the next page:

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 58 Comparative Projected Cash Flow by Configuration
Camarillo Springs Golf Course (2025 & 2027)
18-H As-Is 9-H Option 12-H Option
2025 2027 2025 2027 2025 2027
Total Rounds 36,000 33,000 32,900 36,200 37,500 42,500

Total Facility Revenue $1,621,500 $1,567,700 $1,304,900 $1,620,900 $1,805,800 $2,250,600 Less:

Total COS $76,700 $73,800 $139,000 $160,700 $172,500 $205,400 Total Operating Exp. $1,697,800 $1,854,900 $1,501,000 $1,641,700 $1,650,000 $1,803,200 Operating Income (Loss) ($153,000) ($361,000) ($335,100) ($181,500) ($16,700) $242,000 Other Obligations $704,900 $710,200 $64,900 $70,200 $64,900 $70,200 Net Income (Loss) ($857,900) ($1,071,200) ($400,000) ($251,700) ($81,600) $171,800 The NGF projections for future performance come after a period of continued operation on 18 holes with no upgrade in 2023, complete closure of the facility for renovation in 2024, and re- opening with all elements completed in early 2025. However, we do expect that a large part of the projected growth in income will come from clubhouse operations with 2025 the first full year with a completed and modernized clubhouse.

Limiting Conditions
The income estimates presented by NGF have been prepared based on existing and projected market conditions, the expected quality of the subject facility and the intended segment of the market toward which it will be oriented. Particular focus was paid to the reality of long-term trends in golf in the immediate local market where several golf facilities have been struggling to generate enough rounds to meet obligations. Proper uses of these estimates include:
 Establishing reasonable parameters for expected performance for the subject facility  Determining an appropriate level of total expense the upgraded facility can support  Establishing the basis for appropriate comparison between configuration options  Providing guidelines for realistic expectations of income and expense NGF Consulting is confident that some growth in activity and revenue can be achieved at Camarillo Springs GC, but only with renovation. From a practical standpoint, those managing the facility will need to respond to variable market conditions and unforeseen maintenance needs. NGF is confident that the facility will be able to achieve results as presented beyond the next five years of operation. It is important to measure the projected future performance of the renovated golf facility in such a way as to help the City of Camarillo and the facility owner make financial decisions based on realistic expectations. It is obviously possible that either more or fewer rounds will be realized. As we have noted, we do anticipate that it is realistic for the owner to expect the golf course to generate operating surpluses sufficient to fund future capital if existing infrastructure and basic systems challenges are addressed.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 59

Appendices

A: National Rounds Played Report
B: Demographic, Golf Demand and Golf Supply Data
C: Golf Course Life Cycle

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 60 APPENDIX A – NATIONAL ROUNDS PLAYED REPORT

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 61

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 62

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 63

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 64

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 65

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 66

APPENDIX B – LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMAND AND SUPPLY DATA
Demographics
Camarillo Springs Golf Course 2-miles 5-Miles 10-Miles Ventura County
State of
California U.S.

Summary Demographics
Population 2000 Census 12,107 93,982 253,150 753,505 33,871,644 281,398,967 Population 2010 Census 16,263 110,111 283,136 823,318 37,253,959 308,745,560 CAGR 2000-2010 3.00% 1.60% 1.13% 0.89% 0.96% 0.93%
Population 2022 16,789 113,365 291,511 840,253 39,364,748 333,609,568 CAGR 2010-2022 0.27% 0.24% 0.24% 0.17% 0.46% 0.65%
Population 2027 Projected 16,678 113,148 294,512 845,276 40,089,837 342,845,536 CAGR 2022-2027 -0.13% -0.04% 0.21% 0.12% 0.37% 0.55%
Median HH Income (2022) $121,490 $127,558 $127,887 $105,950 $95,671 $70,666 Median Age (2022) 47.5 41.3 40.8 38.2 36.6 37.9
Ethnicity
White 60.0% 56.6% 54.9% 53.0% 42.3% 62.5%
African American 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 6.7% 13.7%
Asian 10.2% 11.1% 10.0% 8.3% 16.2% 6.9%
All Other 27.2% 29.7% 32.3% 36.1% 34.4% 16.8%
Hispanic Population
Hispanic 33.3% 35.4% 38.8% 43.7% 39.5% 18.4%
Not Hispanic 66.7% 64.6% 61.2% 56.3% 60.5% 81.6%
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 67 Golf Demand
Camarillo Springs Golf Course 2-miles 5-Miles 10-Miles Ventura County
State of
California U.S.

Golf Demand Indicators
Total Households 7,143 41,078 100,610 281,920 13,566,468 127,994,353 Number of Golfing Households 1,110 6,941 17,060 41,885 1,796,918 18,505,952 Seasonal Golfing Households 6 23 70 420 30,546 471,648
Current Demand/Interested Non-Golfers 1,121 8,490 22,188 59,325 2,814,373 20,751,417 Golfer Participation Rate 9.10% 9.70% 9.60% 8.30% 7.30% 8.10% Number of Golfers 1,463 10,454 26,554 66,077 2,694,825 25,551,350 Number of Projected Golfers 1,441 10,331 26,475 66,332 2,747,609 26,252,196 Projected Annual Growth Rate -0.30% -0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.40% 0.50% Rounds Potential (resident golfers) 23,844 164,440 417,374 1,017,099 40,778,066 387,542,767 Estimated Course Rounds (in-market supply) 123,644 123,644 698,785 1,801,926 41,041,582 387,542,486

Demand Indices
Golfer Participation Rate 114 120 119 103 89 100
Seasonal Golfing Households 21 15 19 40 61 100
Latent Demand/Interested Non-Golfers 107 120 122 114 115 100 Rounds Potential per capita (resident golfers) 122 125 123 104 89 100 Est. Course Rounds per capita (in-market supply) 634 94 206 185 90 100

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 68 Supply
Camarillo Springs Golf Course 2-miles 5-Miles 10-Miles Ventura County
State of
California U.S.

Golf Supply
Golf Facilities
Total 2 2 11 25 815 13,946
Public 1 1 4 16 543 10,268
Public: Daily Fee 1 1 3 7 362 7,707
Public: Municipal 0 0 1 9 181 2,561
Private 1 1 7 9 272 3,678
Public Golf Facilities by Price Point
Premium (>$80) 0 0 2 5 186 1958
Standard ($50-$80) 1 1 2 8 173 4212
Value (<$50) 0 0 0 3 184 4098
Golf Holes
Total 36 36 207 459 14583 237084
Public 18 18 81 288 9426 169339
Public: Daily Fee 18 18 63 126 6267 126835
Public: Municipal 0 0 18 162 3159 42504
Private 18 18 126 171 5157 67745
Non-Regulation (Executive & Par-3) 18 18 36 63 2226 18753 Net Change*
Net Change in Holes past 5 years -18 -36 -126 -198 -1833 -10731 Percentage Total Holes Past 5 Yrs -50.0% -100.0% -60.9% -43.1% -12.6% -4.5% Net Change in Holes past 10 Years 0 0 -54 -81 -1653 -25077 Percentage Total Holes Past 10 Yrs 0.0% 0.0% -26.1% -17.7% -11.3% -10.6% *Numbers may include courses under construction and temporarily closed at the end of the year.

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 69 Supply-Demand Ratios
Camarillo Springs Golf Course 2-miles 5-Miles 10-Miles Ventura County
State of
California U.S.

Supply-Demand Ratios
Population per 18 Holes
Total 8,394 56,683 25,349 32,951 48,588 25,328
Public 16,789 113,365 64,780 52,516 75,171 35,461
Public: Daily Fee 16,789 113,365 83,289 120,036 113,063 47,345 Public: Municipal 0 0 291,511 93,361 224,301 141,280
Private 16,789 113,365 41,644 88,448 137,399 88,641
Premium (>$80) 0 0 116,604 152,773 183,376 144,978
Standard ($50-$80) 16,789 113,365 145,755 93,361 207,730 76,346 Value (<$50) 0 0 0 560,169 329,412 121,894
Golfers per 18 Holes
Total 731 5,227 2,309 2,591 3,326 1,940
Public 1,463 10,454 5,901 4,130 5,146 2,716
Public: Daily Fee 1,463 10,454 7,587 9,440 7,740 3,626
Public: Municipal 0 0 26,554 7,342 15,355 10,821
Private 1,463 10,454 3,793 6,955 9,406 6,789
Premium (>$80) 0 0 10,622 12,014 12,554 11,104
Standard ($50-$80) 1,463 10,454 13,277 7,342 14,221 5,847 Value (<$50) 0 0 0 44,051 22,551 9,336
Population Indices (National 100)
Total 33 224 100 130 192 100
Public 47 320 183 148 212 100
Private 19 128 47 100 155 100
Premium (>$80) 0 0 80 105 126 100
Standard ($50-$80) 22 148 191 122 272 100
Value (<$50) 0 0 0 460 270 100
Golfers Indices (National = 100)
Total 38 269 119 134 171 100
Public 54 385 217 152 189 100
Private 22 154 56 102 139 100
Premium (>$80) 0 0 96 108 113 100
Standard ($50-$80) 25 179 227 126 243 100
Value (<$50) 0 0 0 472 242 100
Rounds per 18 Holes
Rounds Potential (resident golfers) 11,922 82,220 36,293 39,886 50,333 29,423 Estimated Course Rounds (in-market supply) 61,822 61,822 60,764 70,664 50,658 29,423

National Golf Foundation Consulting, Inc. – Camarillo Springs GC 2023 Report – 70 APPENDIX C – GOLF COURSE LIFE CYCLE