2022-04-19; City Council; ; Climate Action Plan Annual Report for Reporting Period 5, Jan. 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021, and Status of the Climate Action Plan Update — Carlsbad City Council, April 19, 2022 (part 1 of 2)

CA Review _RMC_
Meeting Date: April 19, 2022
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Staff Contact: Katie Hentrich, Climate Action Plan Administrator [email protected], 442-339-2623
Subject: Climate Action Plan Annual Report for Reporting Period 5, Jan. 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021, and Status of the Climate Action Plan Update Districts: All
Recommended Actions

1. Adopt a resolution accepting the Climate Action Plan Annual Report for reporting period 5, Jan. 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021

2. Adopt a resolution directing staff to use a customized run of the San Diego Association of Governments’ most recent Activity Based Model tailored for Carlsbad in its update of the Climate Action Plan
Execu
tive Summary
In 2015, the City of Carlsbad was one of the first cities in the county to adopt a qualified climate action plan, which outlines strategies and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Since then, the city has implemented several programs, updated city laws and taken other steps to surpass the Climate Action Plan’s 2020 target, which was to reduce greenhouse gases four percent below 2012 levels.

As part of the Climate Action Plan’s implementation, staff report annually on its progress. This item summarizes those activities and results for the calendar year 2021. During that year, staff continued to implement the existing Climate Action Plan measures and actions and initiated a comprehensive update to the plan.

This item also provides a status report on a project to update the Climate Action Plan, including options presented for the City Council’s consideration on which technical forecasting model staff will use for that update. The decision on updating the Climate Action Plan has effects on the timing of the update and the staff resources that will be required, as well as the consistency of the forecasts used for the city’s climate and housing plans.

April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 1 of 41

Discussion
Background
The Climate Action Plan adopted by the City Council in 2015 was developed to help the city meet state-mandated goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and to meet the community’s goal of promoting a sustainable environment (Exhibit 4). The plan includes a greenhouse gas inventory to identify the magnitude of emissions within the city and forecast what those emissions will be in coming years. The plan also includes a range of measures and actions the city must pursue to reach its emissions reduction targets.

The plan was amended by the City Council in 2020 (Amendment No. 1, approved by Resolution No. 2020-146). That amendment revised the greenhouse gas inventory, reduction targets and forecast, updated the reductions expected from existing measures and incorporated community choice energy1 as a new reduction measure. The City Council also approved a related addendum to the plan’s environment impact report.

Progress in 2021
The city continued to make progress on implementing the Climate Action Plan during 2021.

Accomplishments included:
• Coordinated with, and provided data to staff at the San Diego Association of Governments, or SANDAG, for preparation of a 2020 greenhouse gas inventory and monitoring report, which is still being finalized by SANDAG • Launched the Clean Energy Alliance, a community choice energy joint powers authority, to provide alternative energy resources within the city2 • The City Council approved a Declaration of a Climate Emergency (Resolution No. 2021- 215, adopted Sept. 21, 2021)
• Continued implementation of:
o Ordinances related to energy efficiency, solar photovoltaic energy, wiring for electric vehicle charging and alternative water heating in new construction and major renovations
o The city’s Transportation Demand Management Ordinance, which requires businesses of a certain size to prepare a plan to reduce the number of single- occupant vehicle trips by employees
o The Carlsbad Green Business Program, which encourages businesses to conserve energy, water and other resources and recognizes their successes in those efforts
o Climate Action Plan measures and actions related to:
 Energy efficiency retrofits at city facilities
 Installation of electric vehicle charging stations at city facilities  Purchasing plug-in hybrid and electric fleet vehicles

1 Community choice energy refers to cities and counties buying electricity on behalf of their residents and businesses, which enables them to select more environmentally friendly energy sources than are offered by existing utilities.
2 The City of Carlsbad partnered with the cities of Del Mar and Solana Beach to create the Clean Energy Alliance, a community choice energy joint powers authority. Recently, the cities of Escondido and San Marcos joined the Clean Energy Alliance.

April 19, 2022
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• Coordinated with regional partners such as SANDAG, other local jurisdictions, the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative and San Diego Gas & Electric More implementation details are included in Attachment A to Exhibit 1.

Status of Climate Action Plan update
Staff have been preparing a comprehensive update to the Climate Action Plan that began at the end of 2021. This update will continue to align the plan with updated state legislation and targets, further implement the city’s Sustainability Guiding Principles and Community Value of Sustainability and support the actions identified in the Declaration of a Climate Emergency approved by the City Council Sept. 21, 2021.

The city has a professional services agreement with both the Energy Policy Initiatives Center and Ascent Environmental to evaluate the city’s Climate Action Plan and prepare an updated document. So far, the consultant’s team and staff have reviewed the plan’s existing measures, prepared a public outreach plan and began meeting with stakeholder groups, analyzed updated state legislation and policies and met with city staff from multiple departments.

Choosing the forecasting model
An important component of the process of updating the Climate Action Plan is estimating the primary sources and annual levels of greenhouse gas emissions for a baseline year and projecting estimated future trends and emissions. The baseline year and projections are included in a greenhouse gas inventory, which provides a detailed accounting of the sources and quantities of emissions generated from activities within the city.

To prepare the greenhouse gas inventory, a variety of data must be used to forecast population, employment and transportation trends. A major source of this data comes from SANDAG, through its transportation forecasts and its Activity Based Model.

SANDAG, the regional planning and transportation agency, plans for the San Diego region’s complex mobility issues by developing its long-range Regional Plan. This plan uses transportation and land use models to try to predict where people will live and how they will travel. Models are the principal tools used to analyze projects and any possible alternatives.

The Activity Based Model that SANDAG uses simulates community members’ daily travel itineraries to try to forecast where, when and how people will travel outside their home. For Carlsbad and other jurisdictions, the model provides critical information for long-range transportation and planning efforts, such as the Climate Action Plan.

SANDAG’s Activity Based Model was recently updated. This updated version includes all of the land use growth assumptions included in SANDAG’s 2021 Regional Plan. SANDAG has been delayed in publishing the update, but expects to do so in coming months, currently estimated in June or shortly thereafter.

Once SANDAG publishes its updated Activity Based Model, requests for customized runs of the model will be fulfilled in the order they were received. Such a run would tailor the data specifically for Carlsbad, reflecting its land use, population and other factors. That means the city would have to wait for its turn for SANDAG to provide the requested results, which would slightly delay the update of the Climate Action Plan so that the latest forecasts could be included.

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The decision now before the city is whether to proceed in one of two ways. First, the city could wait until the city can obtain the results of the customized run of SANDAG’s Activity Based Model. Second, the city could proceed with the update of the Climate Action Plan, using the updated version of SANDAG’s Activity Based Model but without customization. If this second option is chosen, staff suggest revising that update once the newer forecasts from the customized run become available.

Running the model in a way that is customized for Carlsbad could include any special growth assumptions, such as the land use forecasts derived from the Housing Element update’s rezoning program. Waiting for this customized run would enable the city to align the data and modeling that the Climate Action Plan uses to forecast growth in the Carlsbad with other concurrent city efforts, such as the assumptions and site analyses being used for the Housing Element update’s rezoning program. This is significant because it is important that such official city plans and standards are consistent.

However, waiting to incorporate the information from the updated Activity Based Model into the Climate Action Plan update will cause a delay in that project’s schedule. That delay is estimated at three to nine months, depending on the specificity of the custom run request.

Staff recommend the City Council direct staff to use the customized run of the forecasting model, one tailored for Carlsbad, for its ongoing update of the Climate Action Plan.

Options
Staff provide the following options for the City Council’s consideration:

1. Adopt a resolution directing staff to use a customized run of SANDAG’s most recent Activity Based Model in the Climate Action Plan update
Pros
• Aligns with the land use assumptions and analysis prepared to support the Housing Element rezoning program
• Cost savings: Avoids the additional staff time and consultant costs of having to go back and revise the update once the data become available Cons
• Estimated six to nine-month project delay as we wait for the results of the customized run

2. Adopt a resolution directing staff to use SANDAG’s most recently adopted Activity Based Model without customization in its update of the Climate Action Plan Pros
• Utilizes the most recent Activity Based Model
• Aligns with SANDAG’s 2021 Regional Plan
Cons
• Does not align with the land use assumptions and environmental analysis prepared to support the Housing Element rezoning program • Would require future revisions to the Climate Action Plan after it is updated, which would entail additional costs and contracting needs • Eligible development projects could not bypass the environmental review process while the additional update takes place
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• Estimated three to six-month delay in completing the update of the Climate Action Plan
Staff recommend Option 1.

Fiscal Analysis
There are no short-term fiscal impacts with either option. If the City Council chooses Option 2, there would be long-term fiscal impacts from the consultant costs to update the Climate Action Plan to incorporate the customized modeling so that it would align with the Housing Element rezoning program.

Next Steps
Staff will continue to prepare the update of the Climate Action Plan and continue to provide project updates to the City Council. Depending on the City Council’s direction, the update is estimated to be completed by mid- to late 2023, so staff anticipate that next year’s annual report will focus on the current Climate Action Plan, which staff will continue to implement in the meantime.

Environmental Evaluation
Receiving this annual report does not constitute as a “project” within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under Public Resources Code 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct or indirect physical change in the environment, or a reasonable, foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment and, therefore, does not require environmental review.

On a separate and independent basis, the action to consider and provide direction on the input methodology that would be utilized to prepare greenhouse gas emissions inventories is statutorily exempt from the requirements of CEQA, under CEQA Guidelines section 15262 - Feasibility and Planning Studies. This organizational and administrative activity relates to the ongoing study of preparing a Climate Action Plan update. The City Council will provide direction as appropriate to facilitate the development of greenhouse gas emissions inventories. This general direction does not have a legally binding effect on any possible future discretionary action. Public input received and technical information prepared during the proposed process will be used in preparing a future environmental review document to support the work to update the Climate Action Plan.

Public Notification
This item was noticed in accordance with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for viewing at least 72 hours prior to the posting of the agenda.

Exhibits

1. City Council resolution accepting the CAP Annual Report for reporting period 5, Jan. 1, 2021- Dec. 31, 2021

2. City Council resolution – Option 1, customized run of Activity Based Model

3. City Council resolution – Option 2, unmodified version of Activity Based Model

4. Climate Action Plan
April 19, 2022
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RESOLUTION NO. 2022-093

A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD,

CALIFORNIA, ACCEPTING THE CLIMATE ACTION PLAN ANNUAL REPORT FOR REPORTING PERIOD 5, JAN. 1, 2021- DEC. 31, 2021
EXHIBIT 1
WHEREAS, on Sept. 22, 2015, the City Council adopted a Climate Action Plan, or CAP, along with the General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report with Resolution Nos. 2015-244 and 2015-242, respectively; and
WHEREAS, on July 14, 2020, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020-146, approving the Climate Action Plan Amendment No. 1, which revised the greenhouse gas, or GHG, inventory, reduction targets and forecasts, updated reductions from existing measures and incorporated community choice energy as a new reduction measure; and
WHEREAS, the purpose of the CAP is to describe how GHG emissions within the City of Carlsbad will be reduced in accordance with statewide targets and the statewide targets used for the CAP are derived from the Governor's Executive Order S-3-05 and the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, Assembly Bill 32; and
WHEREAS, the CAP calls for annual monitoring and preparation of an annual report to be presented to the City Council at a public meeting; and
WHEREAS, staff have prepared the Annual Report for Reporting Period 5, from Jan. 1, 2021 - Dec. 31, 2021, and this report is referenced herein.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows:

1. That the above recitations are true and correct.

2. That the City Council hereby accepts the CAP Annual Report for Reporting Year 5, Jan. 1, 2021- Dec. 31, 2021, attached hereto as Attachment A.

April 19, 2022 Item #9 Page 6 of 41
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 19th day of April, 2022, by the following vote, to wit:

AYES:

NAYS:

ABSENT:

Hall, Blackburn, Bhat-Patel, Acosta.

None.

Norby.

MATT ?11.J{lp
tr FAVIOLA MEDINA, City Clerk Services Manager
(SEAL)
April 19, 2022 Item #9 Page 7 of 41

ATTACHMENT A

Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021-Dec. 2021 Page 1 April 19, 2022

City of Carlsbad Climate Action Plan
Annual Report
Reporting Period 5: Jan 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021
April 19, 2022

City of Carlsbad
Environmental Management
1635 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Contact: Katie Hentrich, CAP Administrator
[email protected]; 442-339-2623

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{city of
Carlsbad
Table of Contents
Page
I. Executive Summary ........................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

II. Background ................................................................................................................................2 III. CAP Measures and Actions ..........................................................................................................7 IV. Monitoring ............................................................................................................................... 10 V. GHG Emissions Inventories ........................................................................................................ 15 VI. CAP Update .............................................................................................................................. 18 VII. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 19 Appendix A ........................................................................................................................................ i Tables and Figures
Page
Figure 1 – GHG Emissions Baseline, Reductions, and Targets ...................................................................... 1 Figure 2 – AR5 CAP Action Status ................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 3 – 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ................................................................................. 4 Table 1 – 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Sector .................................................................................. 4 Figure 4 – Sample CAP Projections and Targets ........................................................................................... 5 Table 2 – CAP Measures and GHG Reductions ............................................................................................. 6 Table 3 – PV System Installations in Reporting Period 5 (Jan. 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021) ............................ 10 Figure 5 – Residential PV Installations to Date ........................................................................................... 11 Figure 6 – Non-Residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Targets ........................................... 11 Figure 7 – CVRP Participation in Carlsbad – March 2011 through Aug. 2021 ............................................ 12 Table 4 – CVRP Participation in Carlsbad – Jan. 1, 2021 to Aug. 31, 2021.................................................. 13 Figure 8 – Bikeways by Classification .......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 9 – 2016 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ............................................................................... 16 Table 5 – 2016 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ................................................................................ 16 Figure 10 – 2018 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ............................................................................. 17 Table 6 – 2018 Community GHG Emissions by Sector ................................................................................ 17 April 19, 2022
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ATTACHMENT A
C
arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021-Dec. 2021 Page 1 April 19, 2022 I. Executive Summary
The purpose of this document is to provide an update on the status of implementation of the Climate Action Plan (CAP) that occurred during the most recent reporting period. The CAP requires that the city annually monitor and report on CAP implementation activities and present this report to the City Council in a public meeting. This annual report for Year 5 (AR5) covers the period from Jan. 1, 2021 to Dec. 31, 2021.

The CAP established a 2012 baseline of 977,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e). This baseline was used to project greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the future and set targets within the CAP; specifically, the CAP sets goals to reduce GHG emissions by 4% below the 2012 baseline by 2020 (a reduction of approximately 39,080 MTCO 2e) and 52%
below baseline by 2035 (a reduction of approximately 508,040 MTCO2e). The most recent GHG inventory from 20181 shows the city surpassing its 2020 targets with a 4.8% reduction in GHG emissions (a reduction of approximately 47,000 MTCO2e), as seen in Figure 1.

F
igure 1. GHG Emissions Baseline, Reductions, and Targets 1 More details on this and other GHG inventories are provided in Section VI. 977,000 937,920
468,960
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
MTCO2e
Year
CAP Baseline &
Targets
2018 Inventory
930,000
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 2 April 19, 2022 The CAP includes measures and actions that the city must pursue to meet its GHG reduction targets. There are 12 measures and 35 actions included in the CAP2. Through Year 5, 11 actions have been completed, 20 are in progress and on schedule, 3 are in progress and delayed, and 1 action has no progress3. Figure 2 shows this information as percentages.

F
igure 2. AR5 CAP Action Status
II. Background
The City of Carlsbad’s CAP was adopted on Sept. 22, 2015, along with the General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report (EIR). The purpose of the CAP is to describe how GHG emissions within Carlsbad will be reduced in accordance with statewide targets. The CAP was updated and amended on July 14, 2020 (CAP Amendment No. 1). This amendment revised the GHG inventory and reduction targets and forecast, updated reductions from existing measures, added a new reduction measure, and incorporated new regional and statewide 2 A list of CAP measures can be found in Table 2 and implementation status of each measure and action can be found in Appendix A.
3 Actions categorized as “completed” met the implementation goals in the time indicated in the CAP; however, some of these actions continue to be implemented and are denoted as such. Actions with an “ongoing” implementation timeframe were assumed to be “in progress” versus “completed”, since implementation of the measures continues for the duration of CAP implementation. 31%
57%
9%
3%
Completed (11 actions)
In progress, on
schedule (20 actions)
In progress, delayed (3
actions)
No progress (1 action)
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 3 April 19, 2022 guidance and protocols; an Addendum to the EIR was also prepared. Since CAP Amendment No. 1 is the currently adopted CAP, its details are reflected throughout this report.

Chapter 2 of the CAP contains information about the 2012 GHG inventory. A GHG inventory identifies the major sources and overall magnitude of GHG emissions in the city using standard modeling methods and protocols. Typical inputs include electricity consumed, natural gas consumed, vehicles miles traveled (VMT), solid waste disposed, wastewater treated, and potable and recycled water used.

Chapter 3 of the CAP contains a discussion of the forecasting used to determine the city’s GHG targets for 2020 and 2035, as well as the GHG reductions anticipated by state and federal policies and certain General Plan policies.

Chapter 4 of the CAP describes the additional measures and Actions that the city must pursue to reach its GHG emissions reduction targets.

To implement these additional measures and Actions, the city needed to identify and allocate appropriate funding. Therefore, subsequent to CAP adoption, staff contracted with University of San Diego’s Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) to study incremental internal costs to the city for CAP implementation. All the participating city departments and divisions were surveyed to quantify the resources needed to effectively implement the CAP. On Feb. 23, 2016, staff presented the findings of the study to City Council and noted that these costs would be included in subsequent departmental budget requests.

CAP implementation is a team effort involving several city departments and divisions, coordinated by the CAP Administrator. The interdepartmental CAP implementation team consists of: Public Works (PW) Branch – General Services, Traffic and Mobility, Environmental Management and Utilities; Community Services – Community Development, Parks & Recreation; Administrative Services - Finance, City Attorney; and City Manager - Communications. Team members coordinate on an ongoing basis to discuss CAP implementation activities and opportunities for collaboration.

Figure 3 and Table 1 below show the 2012 GHG emissions graphically and in tabular form for the entire city, including emissions from both municipal operations and the community.

Municipal operations constitute approximately 1% of all GHG emissions. Since there are several different types of GHGs, GHG emissions are typically expressed in MTCO 2e to allow for
standardization and comparison.

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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 4 April 19, 2022 F
igure 3 – 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
T
able 1 – 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation 488,000 49.9
Electricity 301,000 30.8
Natural Gas 134,000 13.7
Solid Waste 25,000 2.5
Off-Road Transportation 14,000 1.4
Water 12,000 1.2
Wastewater 3,000 <1
Total 977,000 100
Emissions in each category are rounded. Sum may not add up to totals due to rounding.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020
Of the total emissions in 2012, 97% are attributed to the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors (e.g. buildings, automobiles). This emissions profile by sector is typical of other cities; therefore, like most other CAPs, Carlsbad’s CAP focuses primarily on GHG emissions reduction strategies in these sectors.

Forecasts for the Carlsbad CAP were conducted for 2020 and 2035 GHG emissions by EPIC. The CAP used the 2012 inventory as the baseline. The first step in forecasting is to determine what 50%
31%
14%
3%
1% 1% 0%
On-Road Transportation
Electricity
Natural Gas
Solid Waste
Off-Road Transportation
Water
Wastewater
Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020
>1%
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 5 April 19, 2022 is known as the “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) projection. This projection is the amount of GHG emissions increase anticipated over time due to population and job growth and vehicular traffic levels. The forecast then deducts the anticipated emissions reductions derived from state and federal policies, such as low carbon fuel standards, building energy code requirements, and requirements for utilities to provide electricity from renewable energy sources; these reductions are known as the “legislatively-adjusted BAU”, as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Sample CAP projections and targets
The Carlsbad CAP considered another category of anticipated GHG emissions reductions from the BAU and legislatively-adjusted BAU projections: additional General Plan policies and actions. These policies and actions deal with the transportation sector and include bikeway and pedestrian system improvements, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation system improvements. After deducting these anticipated GHG emissions reductions from the BAU projection, the model then calculates the amount of additional GHG emissions reductions needed to reach the 2020 and 2035 targets.

The statewide targets used for the CAP are taken from Executive Order (EO) S-3-05 and the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, Assembly Bill (AB) 32. Collectively they call for a reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. For Carlsbad, the targets are 4% below the 2012 baseline by 2020 and 52% below the 2012 baseline by 2035. Prior to 2020, Carlsbad had surpassed the reductions needed to meet the 2020 goal.

The additional GHG emissions reductions necessary to reach the targets are known as the CAP measures; these measures are noted in Table 2. Each measure has Actions, which once implemented by the city, should result in the modeled GHG emissions reductions, also shown in April 19, 2022
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GHG EMISS I ONS

PROJECTIONS AFTER

FEDERAL AND STATE

POLICIES

TIME (YEARS)
BAU

GHG EMISSIONS

PROJECTIONS
LEGISLATIVELY

ADJUSTED BAU

REDUCTION

AFTER LOCAL

CAP MEASURES
SANDAG 2018
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 6 April 19, 2022 Table 2. Since CAP Amendment No. 1 removed some of the measures included in the 2015 CAP, the measures have some letters “missing.”
Table 2 – CAP Measures and GHG Reductions
Measure Letter GHG Reduction Measures GHG Reductions in 2035 (MTCO2e)
B Install commercial and industrial PV
systems
4,457
D Encourage single -family residential
efficiency retrofits
7,986
E Encourage multi -family residential
efficiency retrofits
3,993
F Encourage commercial and city
facility efficiency retrofits
7,579
I Replace Incandescent bulbs with LED
bulbs
22 J New construction residential and
commercial solar water heater/heat
pump installation & retrofit of
existing residential
2,813
K Promote Transportation Demand
Management
6,325
L Increase zero-emissions vehicle
travel
49,912
M Develop more citywide renewable
energy projects
2,774
N Reduce the GHG intensity of water
supply conveyance, treatment and
delivery
713
O Encourage the installation of
greywater and rainwater systems
137
P Implement Community Choice
Energy
56,207
Total GHG Reductions 142,918
III. CAP Measures and Actions
The CAP measures listed in Table 2 can be grouped into four strategy areas: Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy (including Clean Electricity), Transportation, and Water. For each of the April 19, 2022
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 7 April 19, 2022 measures, there are detailed Actions that, taken together, should result in the anticipated GHG emissions reductions.

The following section describes the progress made by the city in implementing the CAP measures and Actions, organized by the different strategy areas. A more detailed description of activities conducted for each CAP Action, along with the 2035 performance goals for each measure, is contained in Appendix A of this report. The activities involving public outreach and education are described in a separate section, since those efforts encompass all strategy areas.

A. Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency is an important component to reducing energy consumption and lowering GHG emissions. The State of California’s Energy Commission (CEC) has adopted a “loading order,” or a prioritized list of actions needed to reduce energy use, and energy efficiency is at the top of the list. For Carlsbad, energy efficiency CAP measures account for approximately 15%4 of the planned GHG emissions reductions.

Measures D, E, F, and I all deal with energy efficiency, both in community and municipal operations. These measures call for ordinances mandating energy efficiency improvements in residential and non-residential construction, implementation of energy conservation measures in city facilities, and promotion of energy efficiency rebate and incentive programs.

During the reporting period, staff continued to make progress in implementing the energy efficiency related measures, including the energy efficiency ordinances for major renovations of existing residential and non-residential buildings. Data from these ordinances is tracked through the city’s permitting system, EnerGov, in a separate “CAP tab.” The city also continues to seek energy efficiency upgrades in municipal buildings. Heating, Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) equipment and lighting are replaced with higher efficiency units and bulbs/fixtures. Staff works with the HVAC system consultant to maximize efficiency in operations. During the reporting period, staff converted 186 fixtures to LED throughout three community parks.

B. Renewable Energy
The provision of energy through distributed renewable sources can significantly reduce the need for electricity from the grid and, therefore, lower GHG emissions. The CEC’s loading order prioritization of energy efficiency is to lessen the amount of energy used, thereby minimizing the size and cost of the renewable energy system needed to power the building. According to 4 This value is rounded.

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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 8 April 19, 2022 the CAP, renewable energy measures will account for approximately 46%5 of the planned GHG emissions reductions.

Measures B, J, M, and P relate to community and city renewable energy improvements and increasing the amount of renewable energy on the electrical grid. These measures include ordinances requiring solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in new non-residential construction and existing commercial buildings, alternative energy water heating systems, citywide renewable energy projects, promotion of renewable energy rebate and incentive programs, and participation in a community choice energy program.

During the reporting period, staff continued implementing the city’s energy efficiency ordinances. These require installation of solar PV panels for all new residential and non- residential development and major renovations of existing residential and non-residential buildings, as well as alternative energy water heating for all new residential and non-residential development. Data from these ordinances is tracked through EnerGov.

Furthermore, in May 2021, the Clean Energy Alliance (CEA) launched. CEA is a community choice energy program that allows for local control of electricity procurement and an increase in the proportion of renewable energy serving its customers. CEA is currently comprised of Carlsbad, Del Mar, and Solana Beach; in late 2021, the cities of Escondido and San Marcos voted to join CEA in 2023. CEA anticipates reaching 100% clean electricity by 2030.

C. Transportation
There are two primary facets of GHG emissions reductions related to transportation. The first is to reduce the number of miles a vehicle is driven. Reducing the length of trips and/or the need to use a motorized vehicle can significantly reduce GHG emissions. The second facet is to reduce or eliminate the GHG emissions coming from vehicles. Known as low- or zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), these automobiles include alternative-fueled vehicles, hybrids, and electric vehicles (EVs). In the CAP, transportation-related measures account for approximately 39%6 of the planned GHG emissions reductions.

Measures K and L address transportation related GHG emissions reductions. Measure K relates to reducing VMT and is closely tied to policies contained in the General Plan Mobility Element.

During the reporting period, staff continued implementing the Transportation Demand Management (TDM) ordinance for non-residential development that meets the ordinance’s trip threshold; data from this ordinance is tracked through EnerGov. Staff also continued implementing elements of the TDM Plan, including outreach on CarlsbadCommuter.com, creation of resources to support hybrid work, outreach through the Move Carlsbad initiative, 5 This value is rounded.
6 This value is rounded.

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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 9 April 19, 2022 and electric bike (e-bike) education and bike education tours. Also, the Sustainable Mobility Plan was adopted during the reporting period.

Measure L involves reducing tailpipe emissions through an increase in the proportion of low and ZEVs on the road. Staff continued implementation of an ordinance requiring installation of EV charging infrastructure for all new residential and non-residential development and major renovations of existing residential buildings; data for this ordinance is tracked in EnerGov.

During the reporting period, staff updated Administrative Order #3 (Fleet Management Program) to include a vehicle acquisition policy to require the purchase of low and ZEVs where feasible. Staff also worked with SDG&E to install EV charging infrastructure, including DC fast charging, for fleet vehicles; the City Council approval of these charging stations occurred after the reporting period concluded. Furthermore, a total of 24 city vehicles were replaced with hybrid alternatives, and one hybrid city vehicle was replaced with a plug-in hybrid.

D. Water
Water conservation can lower GHG emissions because movement of water and wastewater requires energy. Measures N and O promote increasing energy efficiency in the potable water, recycled water, and wastewater conveyance systems and using greywater and rainwater collection systems. In the Carlsbad CAP, water measures account for less than 1%7 of the planned GHG emissions reductions.

The Carlsbad Municipal Water District (CMWD) analyzes energy usage of their pumps and endeavors to increase energy efficiency of equipment whenever it is replaced. For example, during this reporting period, staff replaced lighting and generators at various lift stations.

Implementation of the Actions associated with measures N and O will continue in the mid- to long-term timeframe.

E. Public Outreach and Education
In addition to the provision of energy-efficient buildings or the availability of PV systems and electric vehicles, a critical component to reducing GHG emissions is encouraging members of the public to engage in behaviors that reduce GHG emissions. Bike lanes, pedestrian improvements, and transit expansion only reduce GHG emissions if people use them. Measures D, E, F, and I all contain Actions related to public outreach and education. During the reporting period, the COVID-19 pandemic drastically altered Communications staff priorities. However, staff still implemented several public outreach and education efforts, including maintaining the city’s website with information on rebates and incentives for energy efficiency, renewable energy, and EVs for both residential and commercial consumers. 7 This value is rounded.

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Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 10 April 19, 2022 Staff also continued promoting the Carlsbad Green Business Program and began website updates to promote the Home Energy Score Assessment program (to be completed in 2022).

IV. Monitoring
Monitoring of CAP implementation can be divided into three general areas: 1) progress on implementing the CAP Actions; 2) progress on reaching the CAP measures’ performance goals; and 3) progress in reaching the CAP GHG emissions reductions targets for 2035.

A detailed description of the activities undertaken to implement the CAP Actions is contained in Appendix A. Regarding the CAP measures and their corresponding performance goals, there is variability in the monitoring data sources. For example, monitoring for measures D, E and F require San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) electric and natural gas energy usage. Monitoring for Measure P requires CEA usage data. Monitoring for Measure L requires VMT model output data. This data will be collected during the biannual GHG inventory process, conducted by SANDAG, and reported in the corresponding CAP Annual Report.

A. Renewable Energy
Measure B involves increasing the amount of solar PV systems in Carlsbad. Data for the reporting period were obtained from the permit via EnerGov. Table 3 shows the number and capacity in kilowatts (kW) of PV system installations in the residential and non-residential sectors during the reporting period.

Table 3 – PV System Installations in Reporting Period 5 (Jan. 1, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021) Sector Total
Finaled
Permits (#)
Total
Capacity
(kW)
Highest
Capacity
Project (kW)
Lowest
Capacity
Project (kW)
Median
Project
Capacity
(kW)
Residential 1,108 6,996.94 25.16 0.945 6.31
Non-residential 6 613.22 250 7.38 102.2
Fig
ures 5 and 6 show the residential and non-residential PV installations as they relate to the CAP projections and target. The data were obtained from SDG&E grid interconnections and the city’s EnerGov system. As of January 2020, the California building code requires PV in new residential construction, which is a contributing factor to the increase in residential PV. Because of this legislation, CAP Amendment No. 1 removed the residential PV measure and subsequent target. However, Figure 5 shows the residential PV installations over time based on available data; through 2021, 48.032 MW have been installed.

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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 11 April 19, 2022 F
igure 5 - Residential PV Installations to Date
As seen in Figure 6, the non-residential installations currently exceed the trend line amount for reaching the CAP target of 33.54 MW of capacity by 2035. Through 2021, 16.8 MW have been installed.

F
igure 6 – Non-residential PV Installations and CAP Projections and Target

48.032
0 10
20 30
40 50
60Megawatts (MW)
Year

22.3 33.54

16.8 0
5 10
15 20
25 30
35 Pre-2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
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Carlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 12 April 19, 2022

B. Electric Vehicles
CAP Measure L involves promoting an increase in the proportion of ZEV miles traveled, specifically EVs, of total VMT. One way to promote an increase in EV ownership and use is to increase the number and locations of publicly available EV charging stations.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) administers the Air Quality Improvement Program (AQIP), intended to fund clean vehicle and equipment projects, air quality research, and workforce training. One of the AQIP programs is the Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP).

Administered by the Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE), the CVRP provides rebates for the purchase or lease of clean vehicles. CVRP participation statistics can be used to gauge EV ownership. Figure 7 shows the annual CVRP participation within Carlsbad, expressed through number of rebates, from March 2011 through Aug. 20218.

Figure 7 – CVRP Participation in Carlsbad – March 2011 through Aug. 20219

Data for the reporting period is available from Jan. 1, 2021 to Aug. 31, 2021, and CVRP participation is available in Table 4. The city also continues to acquire clean vehicles as part of its fleet conversion strategy; during the reporting period, the city purchased one PHEV.

8 Center for Sustainable Energy (2022). California Air Resources Board Clean Vehicle Rebate Project, Rebate Statistics. Data last updated Jan. 18, 2022. Retrieved Jan. 31, 2022 from https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/rebate-statistic 9 BEV = battery-electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; FCEV = fuel-cell electric vehicle; other = non-highway, motorcycle & commercial BEV.
0 100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Number of Rebates
Year
Other
FCEV
PHEV
BEV
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Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 13 April 19, 2022 Table 4. CVRP participation in Carlsbad - Jan. 1, 2021 to Aug. 31, 2021 Clean Vehicle Type Number of Rebates
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) 133
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) 20
Fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) 4
Other 1
C. General Plan Transportation Policies
In addition to the CAP Measures and Actions described in Section III of this report, the CAP also relies upon implementation of some transportation-related General Plan policies for GHG reductions. These policies involve bikeway system improvements, pedestrian improvements and increased connectivity, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements. While the overall GHG reduction of these General Plan policies is relatively small (approximately 7.6% of 2035 reductions), it is important to track progress in completing these improvements because they contribute increased and multimodal mobility within the city.

During the reporting period, no pedestrian system improvements were constructed. However, staff prepared the design for the 2022 Carlsbad Sidewalk Construction Project for City Council approval in early 2022; sidewalk construction is expected in the second half of 2022. The city currently has 188.78 miles of bikeways, as shown in Figure 8. Also, 0.73 additional miles of Class II bikeways were added to the system during the reporting period.

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Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 14 April 19, 2022 F
igure 8 – Bikeways by Classification
Parking Facilities and Policies
On Sept. 26, 2017, the City Council accepted a Parking Management Plan (PMP) for the Carlsbad Village, Barrio and Beach Area, which contains many of the parking policies described in the CAP. Implementation of the plan will occur through the Carlsbad Village and Barrio Master Plan, which was adopted by the City Council on July 24, 2018. The recommendations in the PMP include hiring a parking program manager, incentivizing shared and leased parking, April 19, 2022
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City of Carlsbad Bikeway
Classification 2021
'ii_
City of
Carlsbad
>~
Legend ~
- Class I Bikeway (5.62 Miles)
Class II Bikeway (176 .2 Miles)
- Class Ill Bikeway (6.96 MIies)
Cente~ine 0 05 2 Miles
I
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 15 April 19, 2022 reducing parking requirements, allowing bicycle parking as a replacement for required parking, and installing digital parking locator infrastructure and wayfinding signs.

During the reporting period, the city’s parking consultant conducted field work to evaluated parking in the area outlined in the PMP, which is slightly larger than the area of the Village and Barrio Master Plan. The updated study included an evaluation of the current parking conditions, changes to parking supply, and the impact of temporary restrictions in land use conditions due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Additional recommendations in the 2021 study include reconfiguring parking spaces in the Village, researching metered parking options, conducting a comprehensive update of the PMP, and considering providing a local neighborhood shuttle within the PMP district funded by parking fees.

Transportation Improvements
During the reporting period, the City Council adopted the Sustainable Mobility Plan which consolidates decades of planning and community input to plan the city’s future active transportation networks, improve transportation related safety, reduce GHG emissions and VMT, and shift how residents get around the city away from private automobiles towards modes that are more sustainable. The Sustainable Mobility Plan will provide the basis for future city mobility programs and the buildout of the city’s active transportation network.

D. New Development Projects
The CAP serves as an environmental review tiering document, or “Qualified CAP,” pursuant to Section 15183.5 of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines. MTCO2e must either demonstrate consistency with the CAP or submit a project specific GHG analysis for review and approval.

To evaluate project CAP consistency, the Planning Division uses the CAP Consistency Checklist (Checklist) and accompanying Guidance for Demonstrating Consistency with the CAP – For Discretionary Projects Subject to CEQA (Guidance). The Checklist and Guidance are available at:
http://www.carlsbadca.gov/services/building/forms/default.asp.

During the reporting period, no projects exceeded the 900 MTCO2e threshold; therefore, no projects were subject to CEQA CAP compliance review.

V. GHG Emissions Inventories
As part of its Climate program, SANDAG coordinates with local jurisdictions to prepare biennial GHG inventories. These inventories are based upon energy consumption data from SDG&E, VMT modeling data from SANDAG, and other information such as waste disposal and water consumption. These inventories, along with other local GHG reduction activity, are released as a jurisdiction-specific “ReCAP Snapshot.” To date, SANDAG has released 2016 and 2018 April 19, 2022
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Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 16 April 19, 2022 Snapshots, available at SANDAG’s Climate Data Portal (https://climatedata.sandag.org/) and on SANDAG’s website (https://sandag.org/climate). A 2020 Snapshot is estimated to be completed by mid-2022. Figure 9 and Table 5 show Carlsbad’s 2016 ReCAP Snapshot data; Figure 10 and Table 6 show the 2018 ReCAP Snapshot data.

F
igure 9 – 2016 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
T
able 5 – 2016 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total
Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation 470,000 51
Electricity 266,000 29
Natural Gas 133,000 14
Solid Waste 35,000 4
Off-Road Transportation 15,000 2
Water 8,000 1
Wastewater 3,000 <1
Total 930,000 100
Emissions in each category are rounded. Sum may not add up to totals due to rounding.

The emissions categories are the same as the emissions categories included the Carlsbad CAP 51%
29%
14%
4%
2% 1% 0.3%
On-Road Transportation
Electricity
Natural Gas
Solid Waste
Off-Road Transportation
Water
Wastewater
Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2019
Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2019
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Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 17 April 19, 2022 F
igure 10 – 2018 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
T
able 6 – 2018 Community GHG Emissions by Sector
Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total
Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation* 452,000 49
Electricity 277,000 30
Natural Gas 138,000 15
Solid Waste 36,000 4
Off-Road Transportation 15,000 2
Water 10,000 1
Wastewater 3,000 <1
Total 930,000 100
*Emissions from on-road transportation were calculated based on 2016 VMT data.

Emissions in each category are rounded. Sum may not add up to totals due to rounding.

The emissions categories are the same as the emissions categories included the Carlsbad CAP. 48%
30%
15%
4% 2% 1%

0.3%
On-Road
Transportation*
Electricity
Natural Gas
Solid Waste
Off-Road
Transportation
Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020
*Emissions from on-road transportation were calculated based on 2016 VMT data.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 18 April 19, 2022 As discussed in Section I of this report, the CAP sets goals to reduce GHG emissions by 4% below the 2012 baseline by 2020 (a reduction of approximately 39,080 MTCO2e) and 52% below baseline by 2035 (a reduction of approximately 508,040 MTCO2e). The most recent GHG inventory from 2018 (Figure 10 and Table 6) shows the city surpassing its 2020 targets with a

4.8% reduction in GHG emissions (a reduction of approximately 47,000 MTCO2e). This trendline can be seen in Figure 1 in Section I. As CAP implementation continues, progress towards the 2035 target will be assessed in future reporting.

VI. CAP Update
On Nov. 23, 2021, the city executed a professional services agreement (PSA) with EPIC to prepare a comprehensive update to the CAP; this PSA also includes Ascent Environmental as a sub-consultant. The consultant team and staff are working to evaluate the city’s CAP and prepare an updated document. To date, the consultant team and staff have reviewed existing CAP measures, prepared a public outreach plan, began stakeholder outreach, analyzed updated state legislation and policies, and met with city staff from multiple departments.

An
important component of the climate action planning process is estimating primary sources and annual levels of GHG emissions for a baseline year and projecting estimated trends and GHG emissions into the future. The baseline year and projections are reflected in a GHG inventory, which provides detailed accounting of the sources and quantities of GHG emissions generated from activities within the city. To prepare the GHG inventory, a variety of data must be used to assume population, employment, and transportation trends. A major source of this data comes from SANDAG through its transportation forecasts and Activity Based Model (ABM), which support long-range transportation and planning efforts such as climate action planning.

SANDAG’s ABM was recently updated with the adoption of San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan, and this update is known as “ABM2+”. This version includes all the land use growth assumptions included in the 2021 Regional Plan; SANDAG is delayed in publishing ABM2+ but expects to do so in the coming months.

O
nce ABM2+ is published, any customized requests can be prepared in the order they are received; a custom run of ABM2+ could include any special specific growth assumptions, such as the land use forecasts derived from the Housing Element Update rezoning program. As the CAP Update progresses, it is important to align data and modeling used to forecast growth within Carlsbad with other concurrent city efforts, such as the assumptions and site analyses being used for the Housing Element Update rezoning program. Because of the delay of publishing ABM2+ and the potential customization request, incorporating ABM2+ into the CAP Update will cause a delay in the project schedule, currently estimated at three to nine months depending on the length of the delay in publishing ABM 2+, specificity of the modeling request, and the direction of the City Council.

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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021 – Dec. 2021 Page 19 April 19, 2022 As work continues, staff will continue to provide updates to City Council on the status of the CAP update. Depending on which version of ABM2+ is used, the CAP Update is anticipated to be completed by mid- to late- 2023. As such, it is anticipated that the current CAP will be the focus of the next Annual Report. More information can be found on the city’s webpage at:
https://www.carlsbadca.gov/departments/environmental-sustainability/climate-action-plan.

VII. Conclusion
During the fifth CAP reporting period, staff continued to make progress in carrying out the CAP measures and Actions. During the next calendar year, staff will continue to work and coordinate with consultants, SANDAG, SDG&E, and other regional and business partners to further CAP implementation and lower GHG emissions. Staff and the consultant team will also continue work on an update to the city’s CAP.

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ATTACHMENT A
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arlsbad CAP Annual Report
Reporting Period 5, Jan. 2021-Dec. 2021 Page i April 19, 2022 A
ppendix A
CAP AR5 Implementation Activities
by Measure and Action
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CAP Measures and Actions
2035 Performance Goals for Measures CAP AR5 Implementation Activities and Status Timeframes in CAP:

Short-term = 1 - 2 years
Mid-term = 2 - 5 years
Short to Long-term & Mid-Long-term = begun but not completed in 5 years
Ongoing = continue for the duration of CAP implementation Implementation status:

Complete
In progress, on schedule
In progress, delayed
Not started
B - Promote installation of commercial and industrial photovoltaic systems Promote installation of commercial and industrial PV systems to produce an additional 11.24 MW above projected amounts by 2035.

B-1
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section

18.30.130 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code, mandating solar photovoltaic energy generation systems on new non-
residential buildings. (Ongoing)
Staff continued to implement the solar PV ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS- 347. This ordinance requires all new nonresidential buildings to install solar PV systems to offset a portion of their electricity requirements. (In progress, on schedule) B-2
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section

18.30.130 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code, mandating solar photovoltaic energy generation systems on existing non- residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing) Staff continued to implement the solar PV ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS- 347. This ordinance requires existing nonresidential buildings that undergo major renovations or additions to install solar PV systems to offset a portion of their electricity req uirements. (In progress, on schedule)
D - Encourage single-family residential efficiency retrofits Encourage single-family retrofits with the goal of 50% energy reduction compared to baseline in 30% of the total single-family homes citywide (approximately 10,000 single- family homes out of total of 35,000.)
D-1
Publicize available incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E's Residential Energy Efficiency Program, on the city's website and by other means. (Short-term)
Staff continued to maintain a website with rebate and incentive information and made presentations. (Complete)
D-2
Create a citywide “Energy Challenge,” similar to the
Department of Energy's Better Buildings Challenge, to promote cost-effective energy improvements, while having residents and building owners commit to reducing energy consumption. (Short-term)
Staff continued work on a multi-year, research-based strategy to achieve measurable changes in public behavior, resulting in reduced GHG emissions. A program such as this could become part of that strategy, based on the findings of research being conducted. (In progress, delayed) April 19, 2022
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D-3
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section

18.30.30, mandating energy efficiency measures in existing residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing) Staff continued to implement the energy efficiency ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-347. This ordinance requires specified energy efficiency measures in all major residential renovations. (In progress, on schedule)
E - Encourage multi-family residential efficiency retrofits Encourage multi-family retrofits with the goal of 50% energy reduction compared to baseline in 30% of the total multi-family homes citywide (approximately 5,000 single- family homes out of total of 17,000.)
E-1 See D-1 above See D-1 above
E-2 See D-3 above See D-3 above
E-3 See D-3 above See D-3 above
F - Encourage commercial and city facility efficiency retrofits Encourage commercial and city facility efficiency retrofits with the goal equivalent to a 40 % energy reduction in 30% of commercial square footage citywide and in city-owned buildings by 2035.

F-1
Undertake a program of energy efficiency retrofits for city- owned buildings, with the goal of 40% reduction in energy use, beginning with retrofits that would result in most substantial energy savings. (Short-term)
Staff continued to replace Heating, Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) equipment and lighting with higher efficiency units and bulbs/fixtures. Staff works with the HVAC system consultant to maximize efficiency in operations. Due to the impacts of COVID-19 on city facilities, much of the reporting period was focused on those efforts. (In progress, delayed) F-2
Promote available incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E's Energy Efficiency Business Rebates and Incentives Program, on the city's website and by other means. (Short- term)
Staff continued to maintain a website with information on rebates and incentives. (Complete) F-3
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.21, Section

18.21.155, mandating energy efficiency measures in new non- residential buildings and existing non-residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing)
Staff continued to implement the energy efficiency ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-347. This ordinance requires specified energy efficiency measures in all new and certain existing nonresidential buildings undergoing major renovations. (In progress, on schedule) April 19, 2022
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I - Promote replacement of incandescent and halogen bulbs with LED or other energy efficient lamps Replace 50% of incandescent and halogen light bulbs citywide with LED or similarly efficient lighting by 2035.

I-1
Replace 50% of incandescent or halogen light bulbs in city facilities with LED or similarly efficient lighting, or follow SANDAG Energy Roadmap recommendations for lighting in city facilities, whichever results in greater energy savings. (Short- term)
Staff met this goal during the reporting period. Specifically, Parks & Recreation staff converted 186 fixtures to LED throughout three community parks. Moving forward, staff will continue to replace lighting as identified in this CAP measure and action. (Complete) I-2
Promote the use of LED or other energy efficient lamps by publicizing rebate programs and information from SDG&E on the benefits of the use of LED or other energy efficient lighting on the city’s webpage. (Short-term)
Staff continued to maintain a website with information about rebates and incentives. (Complete) I-3.i
Evaluate the feasibility of adopting a minimum natural lighting and ventilation standard, developed based on local conditions. (Mid-term)
In 2018, the Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE) performed a qualitative feasibility evaluation for natural lighting and ventilation. CSE determined that it would be difficult to provide a cost - effective natural ventilation requirement that goes beyond the 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. CSE noted that nonresidential natural lighting is well-governed in state codes, reducing the need for additional local standards. Daylighting in residential spaces is less likely to be cost - effective than in nonresidential spaces because the code assumes occupants are not typically present in residential spaces during the day to take advantage of daylighting; therefore, the cost of these controls may not be offset by the savings. The feasibility assessment also concluded that there are no known reach codes that include natural lighting and/or natural ventilation requirements that go beyond current code requirements. (Complete) I-3.ii Demonstrate natural lighting and ventilation features in future facility upgrade or new construction. (Mid-term)
Staff is incorporating natural lighting and ventilation in the future Orion Center. (In progress, on schedule)
J - New construction residential and commercial solar water heater/heat pump installation & retrofit of existing residential Install solar water heaters or heat pumps on all new residential and commercial construction. Retrofit up to 30% of existing homes and commercial buildings to include solar water heaters or heat pumps.

J-1
Promote the installation of residential solar water heaters and heat pumps by publicizing incentive, rebate and financing programs, such as PACE programs and the California Solar Initiative for renovations of existing buildings by posting this information on the city's website and by other means. (Short- term)
Staff continued to maintain a website with incentive, rebate and financing program information. (Complete)
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J-2
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Sections

18.30.150 and 18.30.170, mandating alternative water heating requirements in new residential and non-residential buildings. (Ongoing)
Staff continued to implement the water heating ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-347. This ordinance requires new residential and nonresidential buildings to install solar thermal water heating or electric heat pump water heaters for water heating needs. (In progress, on schedule)
K - Promote transportation demand management strategies Promote Transportation Demand Management Strategies with a goal of achieving a 10 % increase in alternative mode use by workers in Carlsbad, for a total of 32 % alternative mode use.

K-1 Implement the citywide transportation demand management (TDM) plan and strategies. (Ongoing)

In 2021, the Carlsbad Commuter program (program) regained their pre-pandemic employer network size of over two dozen Carlsbad employers engaging with the program. The program continued to pivot strategies, content development and tactics due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated impacts to the transportation system and daily commute. The program continued partnerships with regional transportation service providers to monitor and relay ongoing service changes due to national, state, and local COVID protocols that affected transit and other modal availability. Accordingly, the program developed and launched a comprehensive system of digital resources to help employers and managers implement hybrid work. The program developed a Balanced Work marketing campaign to promote these new resources and continues to add content and resources. The program promoted regional and statewide TDM campaigns (Rideshare Week and Bike Anywhere) to both the employer network and the general public. The program also launched a commuter incentive to potentially win gift cards for tracking sustainable trips on the Carlsbad Commuter app. The program assisted in the development and promotion of e-bike training and safety standards, local bike tours, and regional bike safety training. The program assisted in the delivery of workshops for the city’s age-friendly t ransportation initiative, Move Carlsbad. The program established marketing materials, tools, and communication mediums to reach homeowners associations (HOAs) and schools for deployment in 2022.

In 2021, the Carlsbad Commuter website received 1,677 unique visitors to the digital ecosystem.

These aggregated efforts were recognized by the leading TDM industry association, the Association for Commuter Transportation, and was awarded third place at the international awards ceremony for the Best Strategy Pivot category. This award recognizes an exemplary program, policy, or service that successfully shifted strategy because of COVID-19. (In progress, on schedule)
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K-2
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.51, mandating TDM improvements and strategies for non-residential
development. (Ongoing)
The TDM ordinance efforts include the development of updates to the TDM handbook and the approval of six additional TDM plans in 2021; seven previously approved TDM plans were also evaluated.

Six of the seven worksites exceeded their 2020-2025 Sustainable Mode Share goals. Cumulatively, this results in a daily reduction of 57,778 VMT and an estimated daily GHG reduction of 23 MTCO2e. (In progress, on schedule)
L - Promote an increase in the amount of zero-emissions vehicle travel Promote an increase in the amount of ZEV miles traveled from a projected 4.5% to 25% of total VMT by 2035.

L-1
Working with industry partners, construct a “PV to EV” pilot project to install a PV charging station at a city facility (such as Faraday Center) to charge city ZEVs. The purpose of the pilot project would be to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating more ZEV into the city's fleet. (Short-term)
During the previous reporting period, staff issued a Request for Information (RFI) for an off-grid PV powered EV charging station. Staff desired to explore innovative solutions that exceeded current market products, but the three proposals received were for “off-the-shelf” products. Staff continues to assess the feasibility of a direct "PV to EV" pilot project(s). (In progress, delayed) L-2
Prepare a community-wide charging station siting plan, which evaluates site visibility and exposure, EV driving ranges, high volume destinations, locations with high ownership or interest in EVs, and cost of construction. (Short-term)
Staff continues to utilize the completed EV charging station site analysis to select locations for future charging stations. (Complete)
L-3
Construct ZEV charging stations based on the community-wide charging station siting plan described in L-2 above. The ZEV charging stations will be funded by grant funds when available, and the city will post signage directing ZEVs to charging stations. (Mid-term)
During the reporting period, staff continued to evaluate funding opportunities to construct EV charging stations. Staff also worked with SDG&E to install EV charging infrastructure, including DC fast charging, for fleet vehicles; the City Council approval of these charging stations occurred after the reporting period concluded. (In progress, on schedule) L-4
Offer dedicated ZEV parking, and provide charging stations adjacent to ZEV parking as identified in the community-wide charging station siting plan. (Mid-term)
An EV charging infrastructure ordinance was adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new residential and nonresidential buildings, and major renovations to existing residential buildings, to install EV charging infrastructure. Staff continued to implement this ordinance during the reporting period. (In progress, on schedule) L-5 Adopt requirements for ZEV parking for new developments. (Short-term)
On March 12, 2019, an EV charging infrastructure ordinance was adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new residential and nonresidential buildings to install EV charging infrastructure. (Complete)
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L-6
Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.21, Sections

18.21.140 and 18.21.150, mandating electric vehicle charging infrastructure in new residential and non-residential building and existing residential and non-residential buildings
undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing)
Staff continued to implement the EV charging infrastructure ordinance adopted by City Council as Ordinance No. CS-349, which requires new residential and nonresidential buildings , and major renovations to existing residential buildings, to install EV charging infrastructure. Staff also prepared an EV Charging Station Ordinance, Permit Application, and Information Bulletin to explain the expedited permitting process. (In progress, on schedule) L-7
Update the city's Fleet Management Program to include a low and zero-emissions vehicle replacement/purchasing policy.

Increase the proportion of city fleet low and zero–emissions VMT to 25% of all city-related VMT by 2035. (Short-term) Staff continued to implement the fleet conversion plan. On Oct. 13, 2021, Administrative Order #3 (Fleet Management Program) was updated to include a vehicle acquisition policy to require the purchase of low and zero-emission vehicles where feasible.

Since April 2020, total of 31 hybrid patrol vehicles have now traveled a combined total of 650,000 miles, resulting in lifetime savings of 30,000 gallons of fuel when compared to the 2019 non - hybrid counterpart patrol vehicles. These fuel savings resulted in a reduction of 584,000 lbs (or 265 MT) of CO2.

During the reporting period, a total of 24 city vehicles were replaced with hybrid alternatives, and one city hybrid vehicle was replaced with a plug-in hybrid alternative. (In progress, on schedule) M - Develop more citywide renewable energy projects
Produce an equivalent amount of energy to power 2,000 homes (roughly equivalent to a 5% reduction) by 2035 from renewable energy projects.

M-1 Conduct a feasibility study to evaluate citywide renewable energy projects and prioritize accordingly. (Short-term) Leveraging SANDAG’s Energy Engineering contract with TRC, a Microgrid Feasibility Study for the Carlsbad Safety and Service Center on Orion Way was completed and presented to City Council on June 12, 2018. If implemented, the microgrid would include enough renewable energy generation and energy storage to power the entire complex in case of a blackout. (Complete) M-2
Incorporate renewable energy measures such as PV system installation on city buildings and parking lots, or microturbine installation on city facilities, with the goal of producing approximately 12,000 megawatt-hours per year. (Mid to Long- term)
In accordance with the city’s solar PV ordinance, future city facilities will be required to incorporate renewable energy. The potential for retrofitting PV on existing buildings is evaluated when other improvements and/or renovations are planned. (In progress, on schedule) M-3
Pursue available funding sources for the construction of renewable energy projects by the city, such as Energy
Efficiency Financing for Public Sector Projects and SGIP. (Mid to Long-term)
City staff continually monitors potential funding sources to support CAP implementation, including renewable energy projects. (In progress, on schedule) N - Reduce the GHG intensity of water supply conveyance, treatment and distribution Reduce the intensity of GHG emissions from water utilities (including water supply, wastewater, and recycled water) conveyanc e, treatment and distribution by 8% by 2035.

April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 35 of 41
a
-vii
N-1
Improve water utilities (including water supply, wastewater, and recycled water) conveyance, treatment and distribution, and other system improvements. (Mid to Long-term)
Incorporating energy efficiency into system improvements is standard practice for Carlsbad Utilities, which analyzes energy usage of their pumps and endeavors to increase energy efficiency of equipment whenever it is replaced. Carlsbad Utilities anticipates including a supplemental budget request for fiscal year 2022-23 to replace soft start electrical components to use wastewater pumps in an energy efficient manner.

The potable water distribution system is almost completely gravity -fed. Specifically, CMWD receives treated water from the San Diego County Water Authority at the highest point in the system and uses gravity instead of electric pumps to move it downhill to customers throughout the city. (In progress, on schedule)
O - Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater systems Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater collections systems with a goal of 15% of homes by 2035.

O-1
Host workshops on greywater and rainwater collection systems through the Carlsbad Municipal Water District, or partner with existing workshop providers, for homeowners interested in installing systems suitable for their property. (Mid-term) CMWD participated in a rain barrel rebate program with other north San Diego County water districts to encourage and provide financial incentive for rainwater collections systems. Details on the program can be found at: http://www.solanacenter.org/PURCHASE-RAIN-BARREL C
arlsbad Utilities posted information on greywater systems on its website at:
https://www.carlsbadca.gov/departments/utilities/water/gray-water. (Complete) O-2
Create a greywater design reference manual, or provide links to an existing one, for the design of greywater and rainwater collection systems. (Mid-term)
Staff will be updating the Utilities website to include a link to the County of San Diego’s greywater design manual; this update will occur just outside of this reporting period. (In progress, on schedule)
O-3
Evaluate the feasibility of offering a rebate for residential greywater systems that require a permit to cover the cost of obtaining a permit. (Mid-term)
Staff began evaluating the feasibility of this measure, but there are remaining legal questions around its funding. (In progress, on schedule)
P – Increase the proportion of clean electricity in community energy consumption Achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030 for 95% of the residential bundled load and 85% commercial + industrial bundled lo ad.

P-1 Continue participation in the Clean Energy Alliance (CEA) Community Choice Energy program. (Ongoing) The city continued participation in CEA, which launched in May 2021. (In progress, on schedule) P-2 Explore the purchase of renewable energy credits if Community Choice Energy program is not reaching 2035 goal. Staff will monitor program participation and implement this action if necessary. (Not started)

April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 36 of 41
RESOLUTION NO. 2022-094

A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD,

CALIFORNIA, DIRECTING STAFF TO USE A CUSTOMIZED RUN OF THE SAN

DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS' MOST RECENT ACTIVITY BASED

MODEL TAILORED FOR CARLSBAD IN ITS UPDATE OF THE CLIMATE ACTION

PLAN UPDATE
EXHIBIT 2
WHEREAS, on Sept. 22, 2015, the City Council adopted a Climate Action Plan, or CAP, along with the General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report with Resolution Nos. 2015-244 and 2015-242, respectively; and
WHEREAS, on July 14, 2020, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020-146, approving the Climate Action Plan Amendment No. 1, which revised the greenhouse gas, or GHG, inventory, reduction targets and forecasts, updated reductions from existing measures and incorporated community choice energy as a new reduction measure; and
WHEREAS, to continue to align with updated state legislation and targets, further implement the city's Sustainability Guiding Principles and Community Value of Sustainability, and support the actions identified in the Declaration of a Climate Emergency, Resolution No. 2021-215, staff are preparing a comprehensive update to the Climate Action Plan; and WHEREAS, it is important to align data and modeling used to forecast growth assumptions within Carlsbad with other concurrent city efforts, such as the assumptions and modeling being used for the Housing Element Update; and
WHEREAS, the City Planner has determined that the City Council's direction on the input methodology that would be utilized to prepare GHG emissions inventories is statutorily exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, pursuant to CEQA Guidelines section 15262, Feasibility and Planning Studies and that none of the exceptions to the exemptions as set forth in CEQA Guidelines Section 15300.2 applies.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows:

1. That the above recitations are true and correct.

2. That staff are directed to use a customized run of the San Diego Association of Governments' most recent Activity Based Model tailored for Carlsbad in its update of the Climate Action Plan Update.

April 19, 2022 Item #9 Page 37 of 41
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 19th day of April, 2022, by the following vote, to wit:

AYES:

NAYS:

ABSENT:

Hall, Blackburn, Bhat-Patel, Acosta.

None.

Norby.

MATT HAL[, Mayor
¥ FAVIOLA MEDINA, City Clerk Services Manager
(SEAL)
April 19, 2022 Item #9 Page 38 of 41
EXHIBIT 3
RESOLUTION NO. 2022-
A

RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD,

CALIFORNIA, DIRECTING STAFF TO USE THE SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS’ MOST RECENT LY ADOPTED ACTIVITY BASED MODEL

WITHOUT CUSTOMIZATION FOR INCLUSION IN THE CLIMATE ACTION PLAN UPDATE
W
HEREAS, on Sept. 22, 2015, the City Council adopted a Climate Action Plan, or CAP, along with the General Plan Update and associated Environmental Impact Report with Resolution Nos. 2015 -244 and 2015-242, respectively; and
WHEREAS, on July 14, 2020, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020 -146, approving the Climate Action Plan Amendment No. 1, which revised the greenhouse gas, or GHG, inventory, reduction targets and forecasts, updated reductions from existing measures and incorporated community choice energy as a new reduction measure; and
WHEREAS, to continue to align with updated state legislation and targets, further implement the city’s Sustainability Guiding Principles and Community Value of Sustainability, and support the actions identified in the Declaration of a Climate Emergency , Resolution No. 2021- 215, staff are preparing a comprehensive update to the Climate Action Plan; and WHEREAS, it is important to align data and modeling used to fore cast growth assumptions within Carlsbad with other regional efforts, such as the assumptions and modeling included in the San Diego Association of Governments, or SANDAG, 2021 Regional Plan; and WHEREAS, the City Planner has determined that City Council’s direction on the input methodology that would be utilized to prepare GHG emissions inventories is statutorily exempt from the requirements of the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, pursuant to CEQA Guidelines section 15262, Feasibility and Planning Studies and that none of the exceptions to the exemptions as set forth in CEQA Guidelines Section 15300.2 applies.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows:

1. That the above recitations are true and correct.

2. That staff are directed to use the San Diego Association of Governments’ most recently adopted Activity Based Model without customization for inclusion in the CAP Update.

April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 39 of 41
P ASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the __ day of ________, 2022, by the following vote, to wit:

AYES:

NAYS:

ABSENT:
_____________________________________
MATT HALL, Mayor
_______
_______________________________
FAVIOLA MEDINA, City Clerk Services Manager
(
SEAL)
April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 40 of 41
Exhibit 4

Climate Action Plan

April 19, 2022
Item #9 Page 41 of 41

Climate Action Plan
Adopted: September 2015
Revised: May 2020
EXHIBIT 4
i
Table of Contents

List of Figures .................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ...................................................................................................... iv Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-1

1.1 Scope and Purpose ............................................................................ 1-1

1.2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases Overview ........................... 1-2

1.3 California GHG Reduction Legal Framework ...................................... 1-5

1.4 Federal and State Emissions Reductions Strategies and Standards .. 1-6

1.5 Planning Process ................................................................................ 1-7

1.6 How to Use This Plan ......................................................................... 1-9 Emissions Inventory ........................................................................................ 2-1

2.1 Methodology ....................................................................................... 2-1

2.2 2012 Baseline Community GHG Inventory ......................................... 2-4

2.3 Government Operations Inventory ...................................................... 2-5 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target, Forecasts, and Emissions “Gap” ...... 3-1

3.1 GHG Reduction Target ....................................................................... 3-1

3.2 Business as Usual Forecast ............................................................... 3-2

3.3 Government Operations Forecast ....................................................... 3-6

3.4 GHG Reductions to Community Forecast from Federal and State Actions ............................................................................................... 3-8

3.5 Modified Baseline: GHG Reductions from Additional General Plan Policies and Actions ..........................................................................3 -10

3.6 Modified Baseline and the GHG Emissions “Gap” .............................3-19 CAP GHG Reduction Measures ...................................................................... 4-1

4.1 Residential, Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaic Systems ............ 4-2

4.2 Building Cogeneration ........................................................................ 4-4

4.3 Single-family, Multi-family, Commercial, and City Facility Efficiency Retrofits.............................................................................................. 4-4

4.4 Commercial and City Facility Commissioning ..................................... 4-7

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ii

4.5 Green Building Code .......................................................................... 4-8

4.6 Efficient Lighting Standards ................................................................ 4-8

4.7 Solar Water Heater/Heat Pump Installation ........................................ 4-9

4.8 Transportation Demand Management ...............................................4 -11

4.9 Increased Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Travel ...............................4-13

4.10 Citywide Renewable Projects ............................................................4 -15

4.11 Water Utilities System Improvements ................................................4 -16

4.13 Clean Electricity .................................................................................4 -19

4.14 Combined Effect of CAP GHG Reduction Measures and Forecast with CAP ...........................................................................................4 -20 Implementation, Monitoring and Reporting ................................................... 5-1

5.1 Implementation ................................................................................... 5-1

5.2 Monitoring and Reporting ..................................................................5 -13

5.3 Project Review Thresholds and Checklist ..........................................5-15 Appendix A - Climate Change Informational Resources
Appendix B - City of Carlsbad Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories B-1 2012, 2014 and 2016 City of Carlsbad Greenhouse Gas Inventories
B-2 2005 and 2011 Local Government Operations Greenhouse Gas Inventory Updates
Appendix C - References
Appendix D - Applicable General Plan Policies
Appendix E – Project Level Mitigation Measures

CARLSBAD CLIMATE ACTION PLAN
iii
List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Greenhouse Gas Effect ....................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1-2: History of global surface temperature since 1880 ................................ 1-4 Figure 2-1: 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Category ................................... 2-5 Figure 4-1: Forecast Community Emissions with CAP Reduction Measures and Targets ...................................................................................... 4-22 Figure 5-1: Process of Climate Action Planning ................................................... 5-13

TABLE OF CONTENTS
iv
List of Tables
Table 2-1: Data Sources for Activities and Emissions Factors In Community Inventories ......................................................................................... 2-3 Table 2-2: 2012 Community GHG Emissions ......................................................... 2-5 Table 2-3: Buildings and Facilities Inputs; 2011 ..................................................... 2-6 Table 2-4: Government Operations Vehicle Fleet Inputs ........................................ 2-7 Table 2-5: Public Lighting Inputs (kWh) .................................................................. 2-8 Table 2-6: Waste and Wastewater Transport Inputs (kWh) .................................... 2-8 Table 2-7: Government Operations Emissions by Sector (MTCO2e) ...................... 2-9 Table 2-8: Emissions by Source (MTCO2e) ............................................................ 2-9 Table 2-9: 2011 Government Operations Emissions vs 2012 Community Emissions (MTCO2e).......................................................................... 2-9 Table 3-1: 2012 Emissions and Emissions Targets ................................................ 3-2 Table 3-2: 2035 Population And Job Growth Forecast ........................................... 3-3 Table 3-3: 2020 Community Forecast Emissions By Category .............................. 3-5 Table 3-4: 2035 Community Forecast Emissions By Category .............................. 3-5 Table 3-5: Government Operations Emissions Inventory (2011) and 2020, 2035 Forecast (MTCO2e) ................................................................... 3-8 Table 3-6: Community Forecast with State and Federal Actions (MTCO2e) ......... 3-10 Table 3-7: GHG Reductions from Additional General Plan Policies and Actions ............................................................................................. 3-19 Table 3-8: Modified Baseline Forecast (Forecast Community Emissions with Federal and State Actions and Additional General Plan Policies and Actions) ..................................................................................... 3-19 Table 4-1: CAP GHG Reduction Measures Summary .......................................... 4-21 Table 4-2: Forecast Community Emissions with CAP GHG Reduction Measures and Targets ..................................................................... 4-21 Table 5-1: CAP Implementation Matrix ................................................................... 5-3

1-1
1 Introduction

1.1 Scope and Purpose
Background and Purpose
The Climate Action Plan (CAP) is designed to reduce Carlsbad’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and streamline environmental review of future development projects in the city in accordance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

The original CAP, adopted in September 2015, was prepared concurrently with the city’s updated General Plan and included actions to carry out the General Plan’s goals and policies, consistent with the Community Vision articulated during Envision Carlsbad. The original CAP was also correlated with the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) on the General Plan, with the CAP GHG reduction target synchronized with the EIR. CAP Amendment No. 1, adopted in May 2020, revised the greenhouse gas inventory , reduction targets and forecast, updated reductions from existing measures , and incorporate d Community Choice Energy as a new reduction measure (Measure P). An Addendum to the EIR was also prepared.

Community Vision and Environmental Stewardship
Carlsbad has long been a steward of environmental sustainability . In 2007, the Carlsbad City Council adopted a set of sustainability and environmental guiding principles (Resolution No. 2007-187) to help guide city investments, activities, and programs. Sustainability emerged as a key theme during the Envision Carlsbad community outreach process, and reflected as a Core Value of the Community Vision:

Core Value 6: Sustainability. Build on the city’s sustainability initiatives to emerge as a leader in green development and sustainability. Pursue public/private partnerships, particularly on sustainable water, energy, recycling, and foods.

The General Plan
The General Plan includes strategies such as mixed -use development, higher density infill development, integrat ed transportation and land use planning, promotion of bicycle and pedestrian movements, and transportation demand management. It also includes goals and policies to promote energy efficiency, waste reduction, and resource conservation and 1: INTRODUCTION
1-2
recycling. These strategies, goals, and policies wo uld result in GHG reduction compared to baseline trends.

CAP
The CAP includes goals, policies, and actions for Carlsbad to reduce GHG emissions and combat climate change and includes:
• An inventory of Carlsbad’s citywide and local government GHG emissions; • Forecasts of future citywide and local government GHG emissions; • A comprehensive, citywide strategy and actions to manage and reduce GHG emissions, with emission targets through 2035; and
• Actions that demonstrate Carlsbad’s commitment to achieve state GHG reduction targets by creating enforceable measures, and monitoring and reporting processes to ensure targets are met.

The timeframe for the Plan extends from the date of adoption through 2035.

1.2 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases Overview
Greenhouse Effect and GHGs
Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere are often called “greenhouse gases” (GHGs). The greenhouse effect traps heat in the troposphere through a threefold process as follows: Short - wave radiation emitted by the sun is absorbed by the earth; the earth emits a portion of this energy in the form of long -wave radiation; and GHGs in the upper atmosphere absorb this long-wave radiation, emitting some of it into space and the rest back toward the earth. This “trapping” of the long-wave (thermal) radiation emitted back toward the earth is the underlying process of the greenhouse effect (Figure 1-1).

Principal GHGs include carbon dioxide (CO
2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), ozone
(O3), and water vapor (H 2O). Some GHGs, such as CO 2, CH4, and N2O, occur naturally and are emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes and human activities. Since different gases contribute to the greenhouse effect in different proportions, the term CO 2e (carbon
dioxide equivalent) provides the reference frame based on comparison to CO2’s contribution.

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that contributes to regulating the earth’s temperature.

Without it, the temperature of the earth would be about 0°F (−18°C) instead of its present 57°F (14°C) and unlikely to support human life in its current form.

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Figure 1-1: Greenhouse Gas Effect
(Source: NYS Department of Environmental Conservation, http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/76533.html)

Carbon Cycle and Global Temperatures
The global carbon cycle is complex and incorporates natural sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide, including respiration of aerobic organisms, wildfires, and volcanic outgassing, and sinks such the removal of CO 2 from by land plants for photosynthesis, and absorption by the ocean. Data collected on global GHG concentrations over the past 800,000 years demonstrates that the concentration of CO 2, the principal GHG, has increased dramatically since pre - industrial times, from approximately below 300 parts per million (ppm) in 1800, to about 353 ppm in 1990, 379 ppm in 2005, and 407 in 2018.1
Increased atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have led to a rise in averag e global temperatures. Figure 1-2 shows the increase in global temperatures from 1880 to 2019. While average global temperatures flu ctuate on a yearly basis, the general trend shows a long -term temperature increase. All of the ten warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, and scientists expect the long -term temperature increase to continue as well. The consensus among climate scientists is that earth’s climate system is unequ ivocally warming,

1 Source: NOAA Climate.gov http://www.climate.gov

1: INTRODUCTION
1-4
and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that anthropogenic2 greenhouse gases are the primary driver.

Figure 1-2: History of global surface temperature since 1880

Source: NOAA Climate.gov, http://www.climate.gov

Climate Change
Global climate change concerns are focused on the potential effects of climate change resulting from excessive GHGs in the atmosphere and how communities can mitigate effects and adapt to change in the short and long term.

Numerous observations document the impacts of global climate change, including increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, more intense heat waves, and rising global ave rage sea level. Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise in the foreseeable future, largely due to anthropogenic GHG emissions. In addition to the physical impacts to the environment from increased temperatures, sea level rise, and more frequent extreme weather events, global climate change is predicted to continue to cause ecological and social impacts. Ecological impacts of climate change include greater risk of extinction of species, loss of species diversity, and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles, which play an essential role in nutrient distribution. The social

2 Caused by human activities

CARLSBAD CLIMATE ACTION PLAN
1-5
impacts of climate change include impacts on agriculture, fisheries, energy, water resources, forestry, construction, insurance, financial services, tourism and recreation.

Higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, decreased water supplies accompanied by increased demand, increase d risk of wildfir e, a greater nu mber of extremely hot days, the decline or loss of plant and animal species , and other impacts of climate change are expected to continue to affect Carlsbad. Climate change also has public health impacts. City residents who are already more vulnerable to health challenges are likely to be the most affected by climate change. These populations tend to be the young and the old, the poor, and those who are already sick. Increases in extreme heat events can increase the risk of heat -related illness or death, or the worsening of chronic health conditions. Food scarcity and higher food prices from impacts to agriculture can cause increased hunger and reduced availability of nutrition.

The increased frequency of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, wildfires, and storm surges can cause injury or death, illness, and increases or shifts in infectious diseases.

1.3 California GHG Reduction Legal Framework
California has taken an aggressive stance to reduce GHG emissions in order to combat the impacts of climate change.

Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05
Executive Order S -3-05 (EO S -3-05) recognizes California’s vulnerability to increased temperatures causing human health impacts, rising sea level s, and reduced Sierra snowpack due to a changing climate. The Executive Order established targets to reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 and CARB Scoping Plans The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32, or AB 32) codifies the target set in EO S-3-05 of statewide reductions to 1990 emissions levels by 2020. AB 32 directs the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop and implement a scoping plan and regulations to meet the 2020 target.

CARB approved the first Scoping Plan in 2008, which provide d guidance for local communities to meet AB 32 and EO S-3-05 targets. The Scoping Plan adopted a quantified cap on GHG emission representing 1990 emission levels, instituted a schedule to meet the emission cap, and developed tracking, reporting, and enforcement tools to assist the State in meeting the required GHG emission reductions. California is currently on track to meet or exceed the AB 32 target of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

Executive Order B-3015 (EO B-30-15) established a new GHG emissions reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and directed CARB to update the Scoping Plan. In September 2016, Senate Bill 32 (SB 32) was signed into law and codified EO B-30-15. In November 2017, CARB published the 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, whic h offers the framework for achieving the 2030 reductions set forth in EO B-30-15 and SB 32. 1: INTRODUCTION
1-6

1.4 Federal and State Emissions Reductions Strategies
and Standards
Several federal and state standards have been adopted to reduce GHG emissions, in addition to and in support of the targets set in EO S-3-05 and AB 32.

Federal Standards
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates and tests gas mileage or fuel economy in order to deter air pollution in the United States. As the transportation sector produces approximately 30 percent of GHG emissions in the U.S. as a whole, fuel economy regulations are an important way to reduce GHG emissions. 3 The EPA’s Corporate Average Fuel Econ omy (CAFE) standards require vehicle manufacturers to comply with the gas mileage or fuel economy standards to reduce energy consumption by increasing the fuel economy of cars and light trucks. Also, in 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that CO 2 is an air pollutant under the Federal Clean Air Act, confirming that the EPA can regulate GHG emissions.

State Standards
California Senate Bill 375
SB 375 (2008) requires each Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) in the state to adopt a Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) aimed at achieving a coordinated and balance regional transportation system, including mass transit, highways, railroads, bicycles, and pedestrians, among other forms of transit. Each MPO is required to prepare a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) which sets forth forecast development patterns and describes the transportation system that achieve the regional GHG emission reduction targets set by CARB.

Governor’s Executive Order S-1-07 (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) Executive Order S-1-07, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), requires a reduction of at least 10 percent in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. The LCFS requires oil refineries and distributors to ensure that the mix of fuel sold in Ca lifornia meets this reduction. The reduction includes not only tailpipe emissions but also all other associated emissions from the production distribution and use of transport fuels within the state.

Renewable Portfolio Standards
California’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), established in 2002 by the California State Senate in Senate Bill 1078, accelerated in 2006 and expanded in 2011 through SB X1-2, is one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the country. The RPS requires e ach energy provider to supply electricity from eligible renewable energy resources to 33 percent of the total supply by 2020. In 2015, SB 350 increased the RPS to 50 percent renewable by 2030 and a doubling of energy savings in electricity and natural gas customers. In 2018, SB 100

3 In 2011, GHG emissions from transportation were about 28 percent of the total 6,702 million metric tons CO 2 equivalents (Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/transportation.html)

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updated SB X1-2 and requires 100 percent of electric retail sales and 100 percent of electricity procured to serve state agencies be carbon-free by 2045.

Pavley Fuel Economy Standards (AB 1493)
In 2009, CARB adopted amendments to the Pavl ey regulations to reduce GHG emissions in new passenger vehicles from 2009 to 2016. The standards became the model for the updated federal CAFE standards.

Title 24 Building Standards & CALGreen
Title 24 is California’s Building Energy Code, which is update d every three years. In 2010, Title 24 was updated to include the “California Green Building Standards Code,” referred to as CALGreen . CALGreen requires that new buildings reduce water consumption, increase system efficiencies, divert construction waste from landfills, and install low pollutant-emitting finish materials. C ALGreen has mandatory measures that apply to nonresidential and residential construction. The most recent CALGreen code was adopted in 2019 and became effective in 2020. CALGreen contains voluntary Tier 1 and Tier 2 level s, which are designed to exceed energy efficiency and other standards.

1.5 Planning Process
How This Plan Was Prepared
The CAP reflects the city’s commitment to the Core Values presented in the General Plan, and links the elements of the plan —including Sustainability; Open Space and the Natural Environment; Access to Recreation and Active, Health Lifestyles; Walking, Biking, Public Transportation, and Connectivity; and Neighborhood Revitalization, Community Design, and Livability—with the goal of GHG reduction. The original CAP was prepared in 2013 by City staff and consultants, with input from the public.

On August 22, 2013 the City of Carlsbad hosted a Community Workshop on the CAP . The workshop provided an opportunity to present the citywide emissions inventory that had been completed, and discuss potential emission reduction strategies. Feedback from the Community Workshop was used to guide the preparation of this document.

Relationship to the California Environmental Quality Act The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) is a statute that requires local agencies to identify significant environmental impacts of their actions and avoid or mitigate those impacts, if feasible. In 2007, California’s lawmakers ena cted Senate Bill (SB) 97, which expressly recognizes the need to analyze GHG emissions as part of the CEQA process. SB 97 required the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) to develop recommended amendments to address GHG emissions as an environmental effect.

In 2010, OPR’s amendments to the CEQA guidelines addressing GHG emissions became effective. Lead agencies are now obligated to describe, calculate or estimate the amount of GHG emissions resulting from a project, by using a model or methodo logy to quantify GHG 1: INTRODUCTION
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emissions resulting from a project or relying on a qualitative analysis or performance -based standards. The lead agency should determine whether a project’s GHG emissions significantly affect the environment by considering whether the project’s emissions , as compared to the existing environmental setting, exceeds a threshold of significance that the lead agency determines applies to the project, and the extent to which the project complies with the regulations or requirements adopted to implement a statewide, regional, or local plan for the reduction or mitigation of GHG emissions. In addition, the lead agency is required to impose feasible mitigation to eliminate or substantially reduce significant effects.

The CAP will help the city with compliance with CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b):

Tiering and Streamlining the Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, which became effective in 2010.4 The required elements of a CAP, as cited in the guidelines , state that a plan for the reduction of GHG emissions should:
• Quantify greenhouse gas emissions, both existing and projected over a specified time period, resulting from activities within a defined geographic area; • Establish a level, based on substantial evidence, below which the contribution t o greenhouse gas emissions from activities covered by the plan would not be cumulatively considerable;
• Identify and analyze the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from specific actions or categories of actions anticipated within the geographic area; • Specify measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis, would collectively achieve the specified emissions level;
• Establish a mechanism to monitor the plan’s progress toward achieving the level and to require amendment if the plan is not achieving specified levels; • Be adopted in a public process following environmental review.

The CAP is intende d to fulfill these requirements. The CAP also contains a Project Review Checklist, which allows for streamlined review of GHG emissions for projects that demonstrate consistency with the CAP, as described in CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b).

Relationship to General Plan and Future Projects
Carlsbad’s approach to addressing GHG emissions within the General Plan is parallel to the climate change planning process followed by numerous California jurisdictions. A General Plan is a project under CEQA, and projects under CEQA are required to estimate CO2 and other GHG emissions, as described above. According to the Attorney General, “in the context of a

4 15183.5(b) of CEQA Guidelines states, “ Plans for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Public agencies may choose to analyze and mitigate significant greenhouse gas emissions in a plan for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or similar document. A plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may be used in a cumulative impacts analysis as set forth below. Pursuant to sections 15064(h)(3) and 15130(d), a lead agency may determine that a project’s incremental contribution to a cumulative effect is not cumulatively considerable if the project complies with the requirements in a previously adopted plan or mitigation program under specified circumstances.”

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general plan update, relevant emissions include those from government operations, as well as from the local community as a whole. Emissions sources include, for example, transportation, industrial facilities and equipment, residential and commercial development, agriculture, and land conversion.” The CAP is designed to provide discrete actions to operationalize the General Plan policies that help with GHG reduction, as well as outline additional actions to help meet GHG reduction targets. The preparation of a CAP is also consistent with CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5 that allows jurisdictions to analyze and mitigate the significant effects of GHG at a programmatic level, by adopting a plan to reduce GHG emissions.

Project-specific environmental documents prepared for projects consistent with the General Plan may rely on the programmatic analysis contained in the CAP and the EIR certified for the Carlsbad General Plan. The thresholds presented in Section 5.3 present a clear method for determining the significance of GHG emissions for future projects.

1.6 How to Use This Plan
The CAP is intended to be a tool for policy makers, community members and others to guide the implementation of actions that limit Carlsbad’s GHG emissions. Ensuring that the mitigation measures in the CAP translate from policy language to on-the -ground results is critical to the success of the CAP. Chapter 5 describes how the city will review development projects to achieve the GHG reduction measures in Chapter 4, consistent with state CEQA Guidelines. This chapter also outlines how the city will monitor progress in reducing emissions, and periodically revisit assumptions and key provisions of the plan.

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2 Emissions Inventory
This chapter identifies the major sources and the overall magnitude of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Carlsbad, pursuant to Sections 15183.5(b)(1)(A) and 15183.5(b)(1)(C) of the state CEQA Guidelines. The City of Carlsbad prepared an inventory for communitywide GHG emissions in 2012, 2014 and 2016, the latter of which was provided through the San Diego Association of Government’s (SANDAG) Regional Climate Action Planning (ReCAP) program. The city also prepared a 2005 and 2011 inventory of government operations.

Appendix B-1 provides the communitywide inventories in detail and Appendix B-2 contains the government operations inventories, both of which are summarized in Section 2.2 and 2.3 in this chapter, respectively.

The inventory follows the standards developed by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) for community and government operations GHG inventories. The inventory methodology is described first, followed by the inputs, and results.

2.1 Methodology
The community inventories cover all direct GHG emissions 5 from sources within the boundaries of the City of Carlsbad, including fuel combusted in the community and direct emissions from landfills within the community. Indirect emissions associated with the consumption of energy (such as electricity, with no end point emissions) that is generated outside the borders of the city are also included. The U.S Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (U.S. Community Protocol), published by ICLEI USA, requires a minimum of five basic emissions -generating activities to be included in Protocol-compliance community-scale inventories. The emissions from off-road transportation (e.g. lawn and garden, construction and industrial equipment) are considered in the inventories.

5 GHGs considered in the report are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and hydrofluorocarbons.

The emissions have been converted to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2e), which converts the three other GHGs into the equivalent volume of carbon dioxide.
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The seven emissions-generating activities included in the community inventories are:
• On-Road Transportation;
• Electricity;
• Natural Gas;
• Solid Waste;
• Off-Road Transportation;
• Water; and
• Wastewater.

As the city has much greater ability to influence its own operations, the government operations inventory is presented separately, and covers direct emissions from sources the City of Carlsbad owns and/or controls. This includes mobile combustion of fuel for city vehicles and the use of natural gas to heat city buildings. Indirect emissions associated with the consumption of electricity, steam, heating or cooling for city operations that are purchased from an outside utility are also included. All other indirect emissions sources, incl uding employee commutes and the decomposition of government -generated solid waste, are not included as part of the local government operations, but rather counted in the community inventory. The government operations inventory covers emissions from the following sectors:
• Buildings and Facilities;
• Vehicle Fleet;
• Public Lighting; and
• Water and Wastewater Transport within city borders
The majority of emissions are calculated using activity data and emissions factors. Activity data refers to a measurement of energy use or another GHG -generation process, such as residential electricity use, or vehicle miles traveled. Emissions factors are used to convert activity data to emissions, and are usually expressed as emissions per unit of activity data (e.g. metric tons carbon dioxide [CO
2] per kilowatt hour of electricity). To estimate emissions, the following basic equation is used:
[Activity Data] x [Emissions Factor] = Emissions
As an example, multiplying the total amount of residential electricity use (activity data, expressed in kilowatt -hours) by the emissions factor (expressed as CO 2e emissions per kilowatt-hour) produces the emissions in CO2e from residential energy use. Table 2-1 below describes data sources for estimating activities and emissions factors.

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TABLE 2-1: DATA SOURCES FOR ACTIVITIES AND EMISSIONS FACTORS IN

COMMUNITY INVENTORIES
Category Category Detail Data Source
On-Road
Transportation
Activity
Disaggregated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) using the
origin-destination method provided by SANDAG
using Activity Based Model
Emission factor
San Diego region emission factor by vehicle class
from latest approved California Air Resources Board
(CARB) EMFAC model converted to average vehicle
emission factor using VMT distribution by vehicle
class
Electricity
Activity Data from SDG&E based on customer class and
customer type, rate schedule and service provider
Emission factor
Weighted average emission factor based on SDG&E
procurement from each fuel type at each facility and
emission factor of electricity generation at each facility Natural Gas
Activity Data from SDG&E based on customer class and
customer type, rate schedule and service provider
Emission factor Natural gas emission factor in California from CARB statewide inventory
Solid Waste
Activity Waste disposal from CalRecycle
Emission factor
Based on waste composition study from similar
jurisdiction (Oceanside) and methane recovery factor
at landfills obtained from the landfill
Off-Road
Transportation
Activity CARB off-road model estimates for applicable San Diego sub-categories, adjusted using scaling factors
for Carlsbad’s proportion of off-road activity.

Emission factor
Water
Activity Jurisdiction-specific water use and energy intensity from the supply agency
Emission factor
Wastewater
Activity Jurisdiction-specific wastewater generation and emission factor based on treatment process from
agency Emission factor
Source: ReCAP Technical Appendix I
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Certain emissions that occur in the city are not counted in the community inventory. For example, emissions related to the Encina Power Plant are not included in Carlsbad’s GHG inventory. The reason is as follows: e mbodied emissions, such as those resulting from power generation that is produced locally but distributed regionally, are not covered in Carlsbad’s inventory, in accordance with ICLEI standards . These emissions are included at the points where energy is consumed (some of which are in Carlsbad) ra ther than where it is simply produced—otherwise emissions would either be double counted, or if only counted at the production source, electricity consumption (which is the second largest contributor to GHG) in climate action planning would be meaningless.

The McClellan -Palomar airport is county owned and operated, and is outside of the city’s jurisdiction. The city has little, if any, influence over airport operations, and emissions associated with airport flight operations are excluded because they occur in a regional context.

For transportation trips that originate or end in Carlsbad, emissions for half of the entire trip are included, and not just for the miles traveled within Carlsbad; however, trips that just pass through Carlsbad are excluded, as the ir emissions would be reflected at their trip ends . 6 Furthermore, although pass-through trips contribute a substantial amount to VMT totals , the city and Carlsbad community has limited ability to influence them.

2.2 2012 Baseline Community GHG Inventory
GHG Emissions By Category
As discussed in Section 2.1, a GHG inventory describes the emissions in various categories for a given calendar year. Some of the inputs, such as electricity and natural gas, are based directly on consumption data. Others, such as on-road transportation, are based upon model outputs. In order to determine a community’s GHG emissions reduction targets, and its consistency with state reduction targets, a baseline GHG inventory is needed. The City of Carlsbad is using the 2012 community GHG inventory as its baseline for the purpose of deriving GHG reduction targets. A detailed description of the community GHG inventory, including methods and inputs, is contained in Appendix B-1.

6 For example, for a trip that begins in downtown San Diego and ends in Carlsbad, the entire trip length is calculated for that trip. Half of the entire trip length is assigned to Carlsbad, and the other half is assigned to the City of San Diego.

Using half the trip length is standard SANDAG methodology for assigning regional VMT to a particular city.

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TABLE 2-2: 2012 COMMUNITY GHG EMISSIONS
Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total
Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation 488,000 49.9
Electricity 301,000 30.8
Natural Gas 134,000 13.7
Solid Waste 25,000 2.5
Off-Road Transportation 14,000 1.4
Water 12,000 1.2
Wastewater 3,000 <1
Total 977,000 100

Figure 2-1: 2012 Community GHG Emissions by Category

2.3 Government Operations Inventory
Government operations represent a small portion (1.2%; see end of this section) of the communitywide GHG emissions. However, more detailed information is available to characterize GHG emissions by source and sector. The city has the ability to directly influence emissions from government operations, and can provide community leadership in reducing GHG emissions. As described before, the four sectors included in the government operations inventory are buildings and facilities, vehicle fleet, public lighting, and water and wastewater transport.

On-Road Transportation
Electricity
Natural Gas
Solid Waste
Off-Road Transportation
Water
Wastewater
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Buildings and Facilities
The inputs for this sector are electricity and natural gas. Data was entered by individual facility along with departmental information. Table 2-8 lists all of the buildings and facilities operated by the city and electricity and natural gas inputs.

TABLE 2-3: BUILDINGS AND FACILITIES INPUTS; 2011
Department Building Electricity
(kWh)
Natural gas
(therms)
City City Administration 1,203,726 1,738
City City Hall 233,680 5,313
City Farmers Insurance Bldgs 112,057 -
City Hawthorne Equipment Bldg 10,040 -
City Total 1,559,503 7,051
Community Development Hiring Center 6,972 -
Community Development Las Palmas 55,570 -
Community Development Total 62,542
Fire Fire Station No. 1 63,600 1,358
Fire Fire Station No. 2 32,643 1,069
Fire Fire Station No. 3 33,972 675
Fire Fire Station No. 4 28,867 1,062
Fire Fire Station No. 5 98,720 2,061
Fire Fire Station No. 6 55,180 1,464
Fire Total 312,982 7,689
Golf Course The Crossings 1,056,015 18,019
Library Cole Library 430,160 2,119
Library Cultural Arts Department 14,444 321
Library Dove Library 1,432,492 11,200
Library Library Learning Center 192,000 421
Library Total 2,069,096 14,061
PD/Fire Safety Center 988,001 19,816
Public Works City Yard 88,335 729
Public Works CMWD M&O 189,440 86
Public Works Fleet Yard 72,320 456
Public Works Parks Maintenance 39,694 149
Public Works Total 389,789 1,420
Recreation Calavera Community Center 54,970 -
Recreation Carrillo Ranch 58,080 -
Recreation Harding Community Center 60,120 952
Recreation Parks Total 914,888 3,006
Recreation Senior Center 308,318 3,349

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TABLE 2-3: BUILDINGS AND FACILITIES INPUTS; 2011
Department Building Electricity
(kWh)
Natural gas
(therms)
Recreation Stagecoach Community Center 195,920 1,424 Recreation Swim Complex 247,240 34,266
Recreation Trails 65,929 -
Recreation Total 1,905,465 42,997
Housing and Neighborhood Services 31,277 -
TOTAL 8,374,670 111,053

VEHICLE FLEET
The inputs for this sector are all vehicles used by the city. The key data used are fuel consumed and VMT, broken out by model year, vehicle type, and fuel type. CACP uses fuel consumption to calculate CO2 emissions and VMT to calculate NO2 and CH4 emissions.

Although the vehicle fleet data from the city was broken down by department, the inputs were loaded into CACP as a single set for the entire c ity due to the time -consuming nature of processing and entering this very detailed information.

Table 2-9 summarizes the inputs by vehicle and fuel type. Gasoline accounted for the largest amount of fuel consumption (167,345 gallons) and greatest vehicle miles traveled (1,965,416 VMT).

TABLE 2-4: GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS VEHICLE FLEET INPUTS
2011
Fuel (gal) VMT
Diesel 62,407 407,826
Light Truck/SUV/Pickup 31,162 298,388
Heavy Truck 31,245 109,438
Gasoline 167,345 1,965,416
Light Truck/SUV/Pickup 76,663 938,733
Passenger Car 85,874 931,979
Motorcycle 1,787 74,024
Heavy Truck 3,021 20,680
Hybrid 3,581 137,096
Passenger Car 2,478 108,136
Light Truck/SUV/Pickup 1,103 28,960

For the analysis in CACP, motorcycle inputs were grouped under passenger cars and hybrid fuel consumption was included with gasoline. Hybrid VMT was assumed at one-third of listed 1: INTRODUCTION
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mileage to account for the likely reality of most hybrid miles being under electric power during low speed driving on local streets.

Public Lighting
This sector covers electricity consumed from three sources: traffic s ignals, streetlights, and other outdoor lighting. As shown in Table 2-10, streetlights make up the great majorit y of electricity consumption in this sector. Between 2005 and 2011, the city retrofitted its existing streetlights with more energy-efficient lamps.

TABLE 2-5: PUBLIC LIGHTING INPUTS (KWH)
2011 % of Total
Streetlights 4,403,265 85%
Traffic Signals/Controllers 768,784 15%
Outdoor Lighting 17,740 <1%
TOTAL 5,189,789

Water and Wastewater Transport
This sector covers fuel consumed by pumps and other mechanisms used to convey water and wastewater: water delivery pumps, sprinklers and irrigation, sewage pumps, and recycled water pump stations. These systems all consumed electricity plus a small amount (170 gallons) of diesel fuel for water delivery generators.

Table 2 -11 shows the electricity consumed by the c ity’s water and wastewater transport systems in 2011. The greatest electricity consumption is from sewage pumps (53 percent), followed by recycle pump stations (34 percent), water delivery pumps (12 percent), and sprinklers and irrigation (1 percent).

TABLE 2-6: WASTE AND WASTEWATER TRANSPORT

INPUTS (KWH)
2011 % of Total
Sewage Pumps 1,262,824 53%
Recycle Pump Stations 791,732 34%
Water Delivery Pumps 285,345 12%
Sprinklers/Irrigation 22,554 1%
TOTAL 2,362,455

Inventory Results
Emissions by Sector
Government operations in 2011 generated an estimated 8,205 metric tons CO 2e in GHG emissions, as shown in Table 2-12. Emissions for government operations mainly came from

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buildings and facilities (42%) and the vehicle fleet (27%), followed by public lighting (21%) and water and wastewater transportation (10%).

TABLE 2-7: GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS EMISSIONS BY
SECTOR (MTCO2e)
Source 2011 % of Total
Buildings and Facilities 3,410 42%
Vehicle Fleet 2,253 27%
Public Lighting 1,747 21%
Water and Wastewater Transport 795 10%
TOTAL 8,205

Emissions by Source
Most of the government operations emissions came from electricity consumption, accounting for 65 percent of emissions , as shown in Table 2-13. Gasoline produced about 19 percent of emissions, followed by diesel/propane (8 percent), natural gas (7 percent) and mobile refrigerants (1 percent).

TABLE 2-8: EMISSIONS BY SOURCE (MTCO2e)
Source 2011 % of Total
Electricity 5,362 65.4%
Gasoline 1,538 18.7%
Diesel / Propane 641 7.8%
Natural Gas 590 7.2%
Mobile Refrigerants 74 0.9%
TOTAL 8,205

Comparison of 2011 Government Operations to 2012 Citywide Emissions
Table 2 -14 shows a comparison of the 2011 government operations to 2012 citywide emissions. Government operations account for a very small portion of GHG emissions, comprising less than one percent of emissions.

TABLE 2-9: 2011 GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS EMISSIONS
VS 2012 COMMUNITY EMISSIONS (MTCO2e)
Government operations emissions 8,205
Community emissions 977,000
Government operations as proportion
of community emissions 0.8%

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3 Greenhouse Gas Reduction
Target, Forecasts, and
Emissions “Gap”
This chapter describes the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets provided by state law, provides a baseline forecast of community GHG emissions, and models forecasts of future community and local government GH G emissions through 2035. The chapter also quantifies GHG reductions from (1) state and federal actions and (2) the updated Draft General Plan policies and actions, and applies these reductions to the community forecast. The emissions “gap” between the forecasts (with GHG reductions) and the emissions targets is addressed by the Climate Action Plan (CAP) GHG reduction strategies in Chapter 4.

3.1 GHG Reduction Target
Statewide GHG Reduction Targets and 2017 CARB Scoping Plan Executive Order S-3-05 (EO S-3-05) and the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32 and SB 32) provide the basis for the CAP’s GHG emissions targets. Collectively they commit California to reduce its GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, to 40 percent below 1990 by 2030, and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

CARB first approved the Scoping Plan in 2008, which provides guidance for local communities to meet AB 32 and EO S -3-05 targets. The Scoping Plan recommend ed “a greenhouse gas reduction goal for local governments of 15 percent below today’s levels by 2020 to ensure that their communitywide emissions match the state’s reduction targets.7 . The 2014 First Upda te to Scoping Plan repeated that emissions reduction target and provided guidance for local governments to develop post -2020 GHG reduction targets. It stated that “there is a need for local government climate action planning to adopt mid-term and long-term

7 CARB 2008. Climate Change Scoping Plan. Pursuant to AB 32 the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, pg. ES-5.
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reduction targets that are consistent with…the statewide goal of reducing emissions 80 below 1990 levels by 2050.”8
CARB’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan recommended statewide targets of “no more than six metric tons CO2e per capita by 2030 and no more than two metric tons CO2e per capita by 2050.”
9 These goals are based upon the 2030 and 2050 goals of 40 percent and 80 percent reductions below 1990 levels and the projected population for those years. Using the statewide GHG inventories, percentage reductions can be derived for various baseline years Total Carlsbad GHG emissions from the 2012 inventory were 977,000 MTCO 2e per year.

Therefore, the 2020 target under State guidance is a 4 percent reduction from 2012 emissions, which corresponds to a target of 939,000 MTCO2e. The 2030 target would be 42 percent below 2012 levels and the 2050 goal would be 81 percent below 2012 levels. While CARB’s Scoping Plan does not specifically set target levels for intermediate years between 2030 and 2050, the Scoping Plan recommends a linear progression in annual GHG emissions reductions to meet the final targets.

The horizon year for this CAP is 2035, corresponding with the General Plan horizon. The CAP uses a linear trajectory in emissions reductions between 2030 and 2050 to determine the 2035 target. Table 3-1 summarizes these emissions targets and the percentage reduction from 2012 emissions.

TABLE 3-1: 2012 EMISSIONS AND EMISSIONS TARGETS
Year GHG Emissions and Targets Reduction From 2012
Baseline
2012 977,000 MTCO2e N/A
2020 937,920 MTCO2e 4 per cent
2035 468,960 MTCO2e 52 percent

3.2 Business as Usual Forecast
The first step in projecting GHG emissions is to calculate the business as usual forecast (BAU).

The BAU forecast estimates community emissions through the year 2035, based on the growth in emissions in the absence of any new policies or programs. The BAU calculation relies upon the latest data available, as well as the most recent projections for population, housing and job growth. The BAU calculation typically represents a linear extrapolation of the most recent data, holding other variables constant.
8 CARB 2014. First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan. Building on the framework pursuant to AB 32 the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, pg. 113 9 CARB 2017. California’s2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. The strategy for achieving California’s 2030 greenhouse gas target, pg. 101.

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The BAU includes emissions projections in the following categories:
• On-road Transportation
• Electricity
• Natural Gas
• Solid Waste
• Off-road Transportation
• Water
• Wastewater
Methodology
The Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast included in the SANDAG 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan was used to obtain the population and job growth in Carlsbad. As of March 2020, SANDAG Series 14 Growth Forecast does not have a breakdown of the number of jobs by employment type (e.g. construction, agriculture) for each jurisdiction. Therefore, the ratio of the number of jobs by each employment type to total number of jobs from SANDAG Series 13 Growth Forecast were applied to the job forecast from Series 14. The BAU projections of 926,000 MTCO
2e for the Carlsbad community GHG emissions fall below the 2020 target emissions level of 939,000 MTCO2e. Therefore, the next steps in the projections of emissions only include a forecast for 2035.

Table 3-2 shows the population and job growth projections for 2035.

TABLE 3-2: 2035 POPULATION AND JOB GROWTH FORECAST
Year Population Commercial Jobs Industrial Jobs Total Jobs 2020 116,101 65,880 12,548 78,428
2035 119,798 74,039 14,103 88,142
Source: SANDAG 2013, 2019, Energy Policy Initiative Center, 2020 Inputs
On-Road Transportation
Emissions related to on-road transportation are based upon the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and the average vehicle emission rate for the San Diego region. VMT is calculated using the SANDAG Activity -Based Model and the Origin-Destination (O -D) method. 2035 VMT projections are estimated from extrapolating SANDAG Series 14 2016 VMT data according to service population. The service population is the sum of population and jobs, which is projected to be 207,940 in 2035. With an average annual VMT of 1,231,554,425 miles, and an average vehicle emission rate of 361 pounds of CO
2e per mile, the projected 2020 emissions
from on-road transportation are 452,000 MTCO2e and 2035 emissions total 445,000 MTCO2e. 1: INTRODUCTION
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Electricity
Emissions projections from the residential elec tricity sector are based upon the per capita electricity use on 2014 (2,159 kWh per person per year) multiplied by the SANDAG Series 14 population forecast. The commercial and industrial emissions projections are based upon per- job electricity consumption on 2016 (6,936 kWh per commercial job per year and 10,126 kWh per industrial job per year) multiplied by the SANDAG Series 13 job growth forecast. The projected 2020 emissions from electricity are 274,000 MTCO 2e and 2035 emissions total
296,000 MTCO2e.

Natural Gas
The emissions projections for natural gas are calculated similar to those for electricity. Per capita consumption for 2016 (118 therms per person per year, 151 therms per commercial job per year, and 126 therms per industrial job per year) multipl ied by population and job growth forecasts. The projected 2020 emissions fro m natural gas are 137,000 MTCO 2e and 2035
emissions total 147,000 MTCO2e.

Solid Waste
The emissions from solid waste disposal are based upon the per capita disposed in 2016 (3.5 kilograms per person per day) multiplied by forecasted population growth. The projected 2020 emissions from solid waste are 36,000 MTCO2e and 2035 emissions total 37,000 MTCO2e.

Off-Road Transportation
The emissions from off-road transportation include four categories: lawn and garden equipment, light commercial equipment, construction and mining, and industrial. Lawn and garden equipment include sources such as lawn mowers, chainsaws and leaf blowers. Light commercial equipment includes sources such as generators and pumps. The construction and mining emissions sources include excavators, off highway tractors and paving equipment.

Industrial equipment sources include forklifts, aerial lifts and sweepers. These emissions are derived from several mode ls, such as OFFROAD2007 and RV2013, and the CARB In-Use Off-Road Equipment 2011 Inventory . The projected 2020 emissions from off-road transportation are 15,000 MTCO
2e and 2035 emissions total 19,000 MTCO2e.

Water
The emissions from water are based upon the 2016 per capita water consumption (141 gallons per person per day for potable water and 32 gallons per person per day for recycled water) multiplied by forecasted population growth. The projected 2020 emissions fro m water are 9,000 MTCO2e and 2035 emissions total 9,000 MTCO2e.

Wastewater
The emissions from wastewater are based upon the 2016 per capita wastewater generation (53 gallons per person per day) multiplied by forecasted population growth. The projected 2035 emissions from wastewater are 3,000 MTCO2e and 2035 emissions total 3,000 MTCO2e.

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Results
Table 3 -3 shows the emissions from the business -as-usual community forecast for each sector—residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, solid waste, landfill, and wastewater—and the sum total community emissions.

The greatest projected emissions continue to be from the on -road transportation category, which accounts for 48.9 percent of emissions in 2020 and 46.5 percent in 2035. Electricity emissions are the next largest category, with 29.6 percent of emissions in 2020 and just under 31 percent of the total in 2035. Emissions from solid waste, off-road transportation, water and wastewater remain relatively low compared to other categories.

The BAU projections of 926,000 MTCO 2e for the Carlsbad community GHG emissions fall below the 2020 target emissions level of 939,000 MTCO 2e. Therefore, the n ext steps in the projections of emissions only include a forecast for 2035.

TABLE 3-3: 2020 COMMUNITY FORECAST EMISSIONS BY CATEGORY Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total
Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation 452,000 48.9
Electricity 274,000 29.6
Natural Gas 137,000 14.8
Solid Waste 36,000 3.9
Off-Road Transportation 15,000 1.6
Water 9,000 <1
Wastewater 3,000 <1
TOTAL 926,000 100

TABLE 3-4: 2035 COMMUNITY FORECAST EMISSIONS BY CATEGORY Emissions Category GHG Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Percentage of Total
Emissions (%)
On-Road Transportation 445,000 46.5
Electricity 296,000 30.9
Natural Gas 147,000 15.3
Solid Waste 37,000 3.8
Off-Road Transportation 19,000 1.9
Water 9,000 <1
Wastewater 3,000 <1
TOTAL 956,000 100

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3.3 Government Operations Forecast
Methodology
The SEEC government operations forecast, which is a subset of the community forecast, covers direct emissions from the sources the City of Carlsbad owns and/or controls. The emissions from government operations are included in the totals shown in Table 3-4 and Figure 3-4 above.

This section separates out emissions from government operations for accounting purposes. The government operations forecast includes mobile combustion of fuel for city vehicles and the use of natural gas to heat city buildings. Indirect emissions associated with the consumption of electricity, steam, heating, or cooling for city operations that are purchased from an outside utility are also forecast. All other indirect emissions sources, including employee commute and the decomposition of government-generated solid waste, are not included as part of the local government forecast, but rather are counted in the community forecast. The government operations inventory covers emissions from the following sectors:
• Buildings and Facilities
• Vehicle Fleet
• Public Lighting
• Water Delivery Facilities
• Wastewater Transport
The government operations forecast uses 2005 inventory to represent baseline emissions, and the 2011 inventory to provide an intermediate value to adjust the model.

Within each sector, certain types of emissions are assumed to scale with population growth, projected to grow at 0.9 percent annually through 2035, while other types of emissions are expected to remain constant or decrease with efficiency improvements. The following sections describe the assumptions underlying the forecast growth rates for each government operations sector.

Buildings and Facilities
The 2005 and 2011 inventories of emissions from all buildings and fac ilities operated by the city were used to determine the future growth for this sector. The natural gas and electrici ty demands were assumed to scale with population for departments such as Police, Fire, and Parks and Recreation, while others, such as Administration and Utilities, would remain staffed at current levels . These growth rates were then combined to determine an aggregate annual growth rate of 0.7 percent, which was applied to the buildings and facilities sector.

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Vehicle Fleet
An estimate of the growth in the number of City employees was used to determine City fleet use. The growth in fleet emissions beyond 2011 was estimated by assuming —similar to the Buildings and Facilities sector—that certain departments would scale with population growth, while others would remain staffed at current levels. These growth rates were then combined to determine an aggregate annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, which was applied to the city fleet sector.

Public Lighting
From 2005 to 2011, electricity use for streetlights decreased approximately 4 percent due to the installation of some energy-saving induction streetlights. Following the completion of the installation of all induction streetlights , the City’s electricity d emand for streetlights was further reduced, which is reflected in the forecast energy demands for this sector.

Water Delivery and Wastewater
The increased demand for energy usage for water delivery and wastewater was assumed to be proportional to the amount of water delivered by the Carlsbad Municipal Water District (CMWD), as projected in the 2010 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP). CMWD’s service area covers about 85 percent of the City, and it was assumed that water and wastewater usage in the remaining 15 percent of the City, served by Olivenhain Municipal Water District and Vallecitos Water District, would follow similar water use patterns as outlined in the 2010 UWMP.

Results
The city operations forecast for 2020 and 2035 is shown by sector in Table 3-5. Government operations emissions are projected to decrease from the 2011 inventory total of 8,205 MTCO2e to 5,185 MTCO2e in 2020. The decrease in emissions is primarily due to the implementation of the RPS and the fuel efficiency gains from Pavley I standards. Emissions are forecast to then increase at a low rate through the year 2035 to 5,922 MTCO 2e, due to projected increases in city staff in select departments to accommodate an increased need for city services.

The relative contribution of each sect or to the total city operations emissions is generally constant over time. The two largest emissions sectors are buildings and facilities, comprising about 40 percent of total emissions, and fleet emissions, which are approximately 33 percent of the total emissions. Streetlights are about 15 percent of total emissions, followed by wastewater facilities at 8 percent, and water delivery facilities at 1 percent. Overall, government operations emissions are forecast to remain a small portion of community emissions, about 0.9 percent in 2020 and 1 percent in 2035. Chapter 4 discusses mitigation measures that will reduce government operations emissions. 1: INTRODUCTION
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TABLE 3-5: GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
(2011) AND 2020, 2035 FORECAST (MTCO2e)
Sector 2011 2020 2035
Building & Facilities 3,410 2,192 2,409
Streetlights 1,747 902 902
Water Delivery Facilities 79 71 76
Wastewater Facilities 716 470 506
Fleet 2,253 2,092 2,029
TOTAL 8,205 5,185 5,922

3.4 GHG Reductions to Community Forecast from Federal
and State Actions
Methodology
The next step in projecting GHG emissions is the consideration of GHG reductions from state and federal actions. This projection is known as the legislatively -adjusted BAU since it still lacks any potential GHG reductions from local policies and programs.

The federal and state actions included in the legislatively-adjusted BAU include the following:
• Federal and California Vehicle Efficiency Standards
• California Energy Efficiency Standards
• California Solar Policy, Programs and 2019 Mandates
• Renewable Portfolio Standard

Federal and California Vehicle Efficiency Standards
The federal and California vehicle efficiency standards vary by type of vehicle. For passenger cars and light-duty vehicles, the applicable standards are the Federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards and California Advanced Clean Car (ACC) Program. The CAFE standards are developed by the U.S Department of Transportation’s National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) and regulate how far vehicles must travel on a gallon of fuel. The ACC program was adopted by CARB and combined the control of smog- causing pollutants and GHG emissions into a single coordinated package of regulations.

For heavy-duty vehicles (heavy-duty trucks, tractors, and buses), the applicable regulations are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (US EPA) Phase-I GHG Regulation and CARB Tractor-Trailer GHG Regulation. The US EPA regulation was developed in coordination with the NHTSA and calls for GHG emissions and fuel economy standards. The CARB regulation

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reduces GHG emissions by improving aerodynamic performance and reducing the rolling resistance of tractor-trailers. The reductions projected from the federal and California vehicle efficiency standards total 113,968 MTCO2e in 2035.

California Energy Efficiency Programs
In September 2017, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) adopted energy efficiency goals for ratepayer-funded energy efficiency programs (Decision 17-09-025); these went into effec t in 2018. The sources of the energy savings include, but are not limited to, rebated technologies, building retrofits, behavior-based initiatives, and codes and standards.

The reductions projected from the California energy efficiency programs total 19,110 MTCO 2e
in 2035.

California Solar Policy, Programs and 2019 Mandates
California has several policies and programs to encourage customer-owned, behind-the-meter PV systems, including the California Solar Initiatives, New Solar Home Partnership, Net Energy Metering, and electricity rate structures designed for solar customers . The California Solar Initiative is the solar rebate program for customers of the investor-owned utilities, including SDG&E. The New Solar Home Partnership provides financial incentives and other support to home builders to encourage the construction of new, energy efficient solar homes.

This assistance terminates on December 31, 2021. Net Energy Metering provides utility customers a credit for the unused electricity produced by their solar system. The new California 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, which went into effect on January 1, 2020, require all newly constructed single -family homes, low -rise multi -family homes, and detached accessory dwelling units (ADUs) to have PV systems installed, unless the building receives an exception. The reducti ons projected from the California solar policy, programs and 2019 mandates total 37,125 MTCO
2e in 2035.

Renewable Portfolio Standard
SB 100, the 100 Percent Clean Energy Act of 2018, adopts a 60% RPS for all of California’s retail electricity suppliers by 2030; this increase d the RPS standard from 50% to 60%. The legislation also provides goals for the intervening years before 2030 and establishes a State policy requiring that “zero-carbon” resources supply 100% of all retail electricity sales to end- user customers and all State agencies by December 31, 2045. If interpolated linearly between 60% renewable in 2030 and 100% zero-carbon in 2045, the interim 2035 target would be 73% renewable. The reductions projected from the RPS total 186,115 MTCO2e in 2035.

RESULTS
The annual reductions from the above state and federal actions —Federal and California Vehicle Efficiency Standards, California Energy Efficiency Standards, California Solar Policy, Programs and 2019 Mandates, and Renewable Portfolio Standard —were combined. Table 3- 11 shows the total community forecast in 2035 considering federal and state a ctions, or legislatively-adjusted BAU.
1: INTRODUCTION
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3.5 Modified Baseline: GHG Reductions from Additional
General Plan Policies and Actions
Methodology
This section describes General Plan policies and actions that reduce GHG emissions, quantifies emissions reductions, and explains how these policies and actions will be implemented. These reductions are from policies and actions in addition to BAU and legislatively-adjusted BAU discussed in previous sections. The General Plan policies and actions are organized according to the following categories:
• Bikeway System Improvements
• Pedestrian Improvements and Increased Connectivity
• Traffic Calming
• Parking Facilities and Policies
• Transportation Improvements
The California Air Pollution Control Officers Association’s (CAPCOA’s) Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures report was developed as a resource for local governments to assess emissions reductions from GHG mitigation measures. This section uses the methodology outlined in the CAPCOA report for each category to quantify emissions reductions from the General Plan policies and actions. 10 The reductions are applied to the community forecast in the following section to get the “modified baseline” forecast.

10 While many of the policies and actions quantified in the report are project -level in nature, much of the supporting literature is from studies on a citywide, countywide, or regional context. The methodology in this section is based on these regional studies, which is therefore applicable to the General Plan policies and actions listed in this section.

TABLE 3-6: COMMUNITY FORECAST WITH STATE AND FEDERAL ACTIONS (MTCO2e) Year
Business-As-
Usual
Community
Forecast
Emissions
Federal and
California
Vehicle
Efficiency
Standards
California
Energy
Efficiency
Programs
California
Solar Policy,
Programs and
2019
Mandates
Renewable
Portfolio
Standard
Total Forecast
Emissions with
State and
Federal Actions
2035 956,000 113,968 19,110 37,125 186,115 599,682

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Bikeway System Improvements
Bikeway System
Improvements
General Plan Policies:
2-P.24, 2-P.25, 2-P.45, 2-P.46, 2-P.53;
3-P.8, 3-P.15, 3-P.16, 3-P.17, 3-P.20,
3-P.21, 3-P.22, 3-P.24, 3-P.25, 3-P.26,
3-P.27, 3-P.28, 3-P.29, 3-P.31, 3-P.32,
3-P.33, 3-P.34, 3-P.40; 4-P.40
2035 Reduction: 608 MTCO2e

Policy/Action Description
The Carlsbad Bi keway Master Plan , referenced in the General Plan, recommends the enhancement of the existing bicycle network with the implementation of new Class I bike paths, new Class II bike lanes, and new Class III bike routes, resulting in a 111.5 mile bikeway system. The planned bikeways include the Coastal Rail Trail, a Class I bike path on Carlsbad Boulevard at Ponto, two Class II bike lanes – one on Hillside Drive and another on Avenida Encinas, and five Class III bike route projects in the northwest quadrant of the city.

In addition to Bi keway Master Plan recommendations , the Mobility Element identifies the following new connections to improve connectivity in the area:
• A new Class I trail at the terminus of Cannon Road and extending eastward toward the City of Oceanside
• A new Class I trail along the Marron Road alignment between El Camino Real and the City of Oceanside
• A new crossing of the railroad tracks at Chestnut Avenue.

Also, CalTrans’ North Coast Corridor Public Works Plan includes, among other improvements, a new North Coast Bike Trail and new bicycle/pedestrian connections across Batiquitos and Agua Hedionda Lagoons.

Finally, th e city can install new and enhanced bicycle facilities as opportunities arise in conjunction with street maintenance and rehabilitation, and as part of “road diet” projects.

Quantification
An estimated 0.05 percent reduction in transportation GHG emissions is assumed to occur for every two miles of bike lane per square mile in areas with density greater th an 2,000 people per square mile.11 Carlsbad currently has approximately 2,700 people per square mile, greater than the threshold of 2,000 people per square mile.

11 Cambridge Systematics. Moving Cooler: An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Technical Appendices. Prepared for the Urban Land Institute. 1: INTRODUCTION
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With the 111.5 miles of bicycle facilities, there would be approximately 2.85 miles of bikeways per square mile, which corresponds to a 0.07 percent reduction in VM T emissions, or about 608 MTCO2e in 2035.

Implementation
The bikeway system enhancements will occur incrementally (at approximately .6 miles/ year) through the implementation of the General Plan and planned and opportunistic bikeway improvements (e.g., in conjunction with street maintenance and rehabilitation, or as part of a “road diet”). Improvements will be funded and/or installed as conditions o n new private development as well as through the city’s multi-year CIP and annual operating budget process.

Funding sources may include development impact fees, general funds, local, state, and federal grants.

Pedestrian Improvements and Increased Connectivity
Pedestrian
Improvements and
Increased
Connectivity
General Plan Policies:
2-P.24, 2-P.25, 2-P.45, 2-P.46, 2-P.47,
2-P.48, 2-P.50, 2-P.53, 2-P.72, 2-P.79;
3-P.8, 3-P.16, 3-P.17, 3-P.20, 3-P.21, 3-
P.22, 3-P.24, 3-P.25, 3-P.26, 3-P.27, 3-
P.28, 3-P.29, 3-P.31, 3-P.32, 3-P.33, 3-
P.40; 4-P.40

2035 Reduction: 615 MTCO2e

Policy/Action Description
Pedestrian Improvements
Carlsbad has adopted several programs and plans related to improving the walking environment. The city’s Pedestrian Master Plan guides the future development and enhancement of pedestrian facilities to ensure that walking becomes an integral mode of transportation in Carlsbad. The Carlsbad Residential Traffic Management Program provides a mechanism for community members to report issues relating to speeding and traffic volumes on residential roadways, assisting the c ity in “calming” traffic in these areas t o make them more comfortable for pedestrian travel.

Physical barriers to pedestrian access include gaps in sidewalks, high-volume , high-speed streets, a circuitous roadway system in several parts of the city, and regional infrastructure such as freeways and railways that presents barriers to pedestrian mobility. There are four significant concentrations of high pedestrian improvement needs across the City of Carlsbad, including the following locations:
• The entire northwest quadrant, especially the Carlsbad Village area • The southern coastal area along Carlsbad Boulevard, between Cannon Road and La Costa Avenue
• Several locations along El Camino Real, near Camino Vida Roble, Aviara Parkway/Alga Road and La Costa Avenue

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• The southeastern portion of the city, stemming from the intersection of La Costa Avenue and Rancho Santa Fe Road
A range of potential improvement projects exists throughout the city, as identified in the pedestrian master plan, to enhance pedestrian mobility, local connectivity, usage, safety and accessibility. These improvements include filling in gaps in sidewalk connectivity, upgrading substandard sidewalks, creating new connections to pedestrian attracting designations (such as access across the railroad track to the beach at Chestnut Avenue, for example), establishing safe routes to school, enhanc ing crosswalks, installing pedestrian countdown signals, improving signage, and providing ADA improvements.

Increased Connectivity
Increasing connectivity in the city is critical to achieving the Carlsbad Community Vision.

There are a number of improvements described in the General Plan that will enhance connectivity for bicycles and pedestrians, as noted below:
• Cannon Road east of College Boulev ard – Provide a bicycle/pedestrian facility that would begin at the current eastern terminus of Cannon Road and continue eastward to the city’s eastern boundary.
• Marron Road Connection – Provide a bicycle/pedestrian facility that would begin at the current eastern terminus of Marron Road and extend eastward to the city’s eastern boundary.
• Additional crossings of Interstate-5 and the railroad – Continue to look for opportunities to add crossings of these two barriers and improve east-west connectivity to and from the coast. Key connections will include a crossing at Chestnut Avenue (bicycle, pedestrian, and vehicular) under the freeway and (bicycle and pedestrian) across the railroad, and a Chinquapin Avenue connection (bicycle, pedestrian, and vehicular) over the freeway and (bicycle and pedestrian) across the railroad. Additionally, Caltrans is designing a number of new pedestrian and bicyclist connections along and across Interstate-5 and near the lagoons as part of the Interstate-5 North Coast Corridor Public Works Plan. The city will continue to coordinate with Caltrans on these improvements. • Improved accessibility to the lagoons and to the coast are envisioned to improve connectivity to those areas.

Quantification
Providing an improved pedestrian network and increasing connectivity encourages people to walk more and results in people driving less, causing a reduction in VMT. An estimate of a 1 percent reduction in VMT from pedestrian improvements and connectivity was assumed, which corresponds to a reduction of 615 MTCO
2e in 2035.12

12 Center for Clean Air Policy. Transportation Emission Guidebook. http://www.ccap.org/safe/guidebook/guide_complete.html. 1: INTRODUCTION
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Implementation
Pedestrian improvements and increased connectivity will occur through implementation of the Pedestrian Master Plan, the Residential Traffic Management Program, and the General Plan , and through planned and opportunistic pedestrian improvements (e.g., in conjunction with street maintenance and rehabilitation, or as part of a “road diet”). Improvements will be funded and/or installed as conditions on new private development as well as through the city’s multi- year CIP and annual operating budget process. Funding sources may include development impact fees, general funds, local, state, and federal grants.

Traffic Calming
Traffic Calming General Plan Policies:
2-P.53; 3-P.16, 3.P-17

2035 Reduction: 969 MTCO2e

Policy/Action Description
The Carlsbad Residential Traffic Management Program provides a mechanism for community members to report issues relating to speeding and traffic volumes on residential roadways, assisting the City in “calming” traffic in these ar eas to make them more safe and comfortable for pedestrian travel. Traffic calming devices include speed tables, speed bumps, roundabouts, and other devices that encourage people to drive more slowly or to walk or bike instead of using a vehicle, especially for short trips in and around residential neighborhoods. The residential traffic management program is implemented by the Transportation Division and funded through the annual budget appropriation process.

Quantification
CAPCOA’s “Quantifying Greenhouse Mitigation Measures” was used to quantify the effect of traffic calming devices. A 0.25 percent reduction in VMT was assumed to occur from these improvements, which corresponds to a reduction of 969 MTCO2e in 2035.

Implementation
The traffic calming imp rovements will occur through the implementation of the Residential Traffic Management Program and the General Plan.

Parking Facilities and Policies
Parking Facilities and
Policies
General Plan Policies:
2-P.75, 2-P.83; 3-P.28, 3-P.38, 3-P.39, 3-
P.40, 3-P.41
2035 Reduction: 6,618 MTCO2e
Policy/Action Description
Getting parking right is critical to ensuring the success of any urban area. Inadequate parking is inconvenient and frustrating for businesses and residents. Too much parking underutilizes valuable land, results in lower density development, discourages use of other forms of transportation (such as public transit), spreads out land uses, and creates gaps in store fronts;

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thereby practically requiring the use of the automobile. Additionally, too much parking also requires more driveways for accessibility, introducing conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles. Overly high parking requirements—particularly in downtown areas or urban cores— can impact the ability to renovate or repurpose older buildings and revitalize activity centers that can be better served and connected by enhancing facilities and amenities for bicyclists and pedestrians. Therefore, it is important to “right size” and manage parking such that there is enough to support the needs generated by the use, but not so much that it wastes land and impairs other ways of getting around.

The city’s Zoning Ordinance provides standards for parking facilities based on development types within the city. To promote “right sizing” of parking facilities, the following techniques are included as part of the General Plan Mobility Element:
• Shared Parking – continue to allow uses that have different parking demands at different times of the day to share the same parking facilities. This is an effective way to minimize pavement, allow denser land use, provide for more landscaping, and provide improved walkability within a mixed use area. The best example of shared parking is an office building and an apartment building as office’s peak parking demand occurs at 10:00 a.m. and apartment’s peak parking demand occurs at 11:00 p.m. • Collective Parking – allow uses in mixed use projects/areas to utilize up to 50 percent of project site’s vacant on-street parking to count toward their parking supply requirements. • Unbundled Parking – rather than provide free guaranteed parking, “unbundle” the parking from the development and require residents and/or employees to pay for use of a parking space.
• Park Once – a strategy in destination districts to enable visitors to “park once” and visit a series of destinations. Park once strategies work well in areas like the Village and areas that are well connected by pedestrian and bicycle facilities. The creation of centralized parking areas supports this strategy.
• In Lieu Parking Fees – continue strategies in appropriate areas by which developers can contribute fees toward the development of a common parking facility in lieu of providing on-site parking. This works best in downtown or concentrated commercial areas, works well to assist in paying for unified structured parking, and provides developers an opportunity to increase density on their parcels.
• Parking Management Strategies –a business district or businesses manage high demand parking locations and destinations through a number of different strategies including demand pricing, time restrictions, valet parking, and other techniques. • Public-Private Partnerships –the city, business owners, and developers coll aborate to provide both private and public parking opportunities. Instances where this works well include parcels owned by the city, where a private entity comes in and develops, manages, and enforces the parking in these public lots. • Parking Locater Signs – electronic monitoring devices that identify the available parking in a given facility and utilize changeable message signs to assist travelers in identifying available parking locations. Please note that this may require modifications to the city’s zoning ordinance to be implemented in some areas of the city. 1: INTRODUCTION
3-16
• Parking Wayfinding Signs – signs identifying where public parking is available, which support the “park once” concept.
• Reduced Parking Standards – reduce parking standards in areas that are well served by transit, provide shuttle accessibility to the COASTER station, provide parking cash out programs (where employers pay employees to not park on site), or provide other programs that will reduce parking demand.
• Biking Equals Business Program – businesses provide bicycle parking or corrals and provide incentives to encourage their patrons and employees to ride rather than drive. • Transit Equals Business Program – businesses provide their customers and employees incentives to encourage them to use transit rather than drive. • Bicycle Corrals in Lieu of Vehicle Parking – for certain businesses, reduce required onsite parking for vehicles if they provide a bicycle corral that accommodates more people.

Although there are additional parking strategies that a re available and may become available in the future, most of the strategies work best in smart growth/mixed use development areas and will be necessary to accomplish the goals and visions identified in the General Plan and the General Plan Mobility Element.

Quantification
According to CAPCOA’s Quantifying GHG Mitigation Measures, parking strategies have estimated VMT reductions. Reduced parking standards and other policies reducing parking availability have an estimated 5 to 12.5 percent VMT reduction, unbundled parking cost has a

2.6 to 13 percent VMT reduction, and parking management strategies have a 2.8 to 5.5 percent VMT projection.
13 Conservatively assuming the combined effect of these parking reduction strategies would result in the lower end of the strategies results, and considering that the strategies would be most applicable in future growth and infill areas, the cumulative reduction from implementations would result in a 2 percent VMT reduction to give an estimated 6,618 MTCO
2e reduction by 2035.

Implementation
The parking strategies will occur through the implementation of the Zoning Ordinance and the General Plan. The city’s Planning Division is primarily responsible for developing new ordinances and updating existing ones. Parking policy and ordinance changes would be carried out under the Planning division’s annual budget authority.

Transportation Improvements
Transportation
Improvements
General Plan Policies:
2-P.48, 2-P.72; 3-P.8, 3-P.19, 3-P.20, 3-
P.27, 3-P.31, 3-P.32, 3-P.35, 3-P.36
2035 Reduction: 2,085 MTCO2e

13 The maximum reduction provided from the combination of all parking policies in the CAPCOA report is a 20 percent reduction in VMT

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Policy/Action Description
Transit in Carlsbad includes bus service, ADA paratransit service, and the COASTER commuter rail; indirectly, transit service is also provided by the Sprinter light rail system, Amtrak rail servi ce, and Metrolink commuter rail. Future transit service in the city will primarily be coordinated by the North County Transit District (NCTD). In addition, there are several planned transit improvements for Carlsbad that are part of San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) regional planning efforts . These are reflected in the General Plan Mobility Element:
• Coastal rail improvements are proposed for the tracks serving the COASTER and Surfliner trains in San Diego County along the Los Angeles to San Diego Rail Corridor.

These proposed improvements include double tracking, bridge replacements, and station improvements. Improvements to the COASTER service (2020 and 2030) are also proposed and would increase service and reduce headways. • Route 471 (2020) is a proposed rapid bus providing frequent service between Carlsbad and San Marcos via Palomar Airport Road. This route will operate with 10 minute headways during peak and off-peak hours. In the city, this rapid bus route is envisioned to be supported by signal priority at intersections.
• AMTRAK will add service to Carlsbad.
• As previously described, the above future transit improvements will continue to advance the backbone transit infrastructure. However, one key component to improving transit use is improving the “first mile/last mile” access and experience for transit users. This typically includes end of trip facilities (bike racks, showers, changing rooms, etc.) and better connectivity from the transit stop to the ultimate destination via bicycle facilities, pedestrian facilities, local transit circulators, etc.
• Carlsbad’s future transit effectiveness will depend on major employers assisting with providing some of these “first mile/last mile” facilities through transportation demand management (TDM) measures. TDM is envisioned to include shuttle circulators to major employers and destinations, showers and changing rooms at those locations, and a host of other typical TDM techniques that would support transit usage and the connection to the ultimate destination. This Mobility Element also supports TDM through potential ince ntives (such as reduced parking standards for TDM implementation) to further support transit access to these destinations. • The final component to improving transit use in the city is working with NCTD to improve the transit experience , particularly along the bus routes. This includes improving bus stops in the city to ensure that they are well lit, have seating, and are covered to protect users from inclement weather.

As part of the FY 2014-2015 capital improvement program, the city initiated work on a Coastal Mobility Readiness Plan . This plan w ill complement current and planned bicycle and pedestrian improvements by recommending policy and infrastructure investments that will:
improve accessibility to transit and para-transit services; fill in transportation gaps (“first mile- 1: INTRODUCTION
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last mile” solutions); support and encourage expanded use of low-emission and zero emission vehicles; provide viable alternatives to private, single -occupant vehicle use (such as through car-sharing, bike -sharing, and local shuttles); and recommend other transportation/parking demand management strategies. The plan will emphasize efficiently connecting residents and visitors among the city’s various coastal activity centers, beaches, the state campground, and to and from major hotels and resorts, the Village, major shopping centers, and other significant visitor-serving activity centers. The plan will identify effective, proven tools, and seek out promising and emerging technologies. The plan will also identify pote ntial funding partners such as NCTD (e.g. Cooperative Agreements in accordance with NCTD Board Policy 22), private funding and/or public grants. The plan is expected to be completed at the end of 2015, with implementation beginning in 2016.

The city has also implemented a state-of-the-practice traffic signal management (TSM) system.

This system integrates traffic signals in the city to a single access point, allowing city staff to monitor and update signal timings to improve safety and mobility for all users in the city. The Mobility Element supports further implementation of this program and use of other technologies that become available, which have the ability to improve mobility for all users of the city’s transportation system.

Quantification
Transportation system improvements can result in VMT reductions. According to CAPCOA’s Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures, transit system improvements can result in the following reductions: 0.02 to 3.2 percent VMT reduction from a bus rapid transit s ystem,

0.1 to 8.2 percent VMT reduction from expanding the transit network, 0.02 to 2.5 percent VMT reduction from increasing transit service frequency and speed, and 0.5 to 24.6 percent VMT reduction from increasing transit accessibility. Reductions from TSM were estimated using Cambridge Systematics’ Moving Cooler report as a 0.01 percent VMT reduction.

Conservatively assuming the combined effect of these strategies, summing the low end of the VMT reduction ranges gives a 0.63 percent reduction in VMT emissions.

Implementation
Transit improvements will primarily be coordinated by NCTD and will also be implemented by SANDAG regional planning and funding efforts. City-led improvements will be carried out through the city’s multi-year CIP and annual operating budget appropriation process.

Results
Table 3 -12 shows the GHG reductions from each of the above General Plan policies and actions. The largest reduction comes from parking facilities and policies, followed by transportation improvements, traffic calm ing, pedestrian improvement and increased connectivity, and bikeway system improvements. The reductions from these policies and actions are incorporated into the community emissions forecast in the following section.

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TABLE 3-7: GHG REDUCTIONS FROM ADDITIONAL GENERAL PLAN POLICIES AND ACTIONS Year
Bikeway System
Improvements
Pedestrian
Improvements
and Increased
Connectivity
Traffic
Calming
Parking
Facilities
and
Policies
Transportation
Improvements
Total GHG
Reductions
from
Additional
General Plan
Policies and
Actions
2035 608 615 969 6,618 2,085 10,895

3.6 Modified Baseline and the GHG Emissions “Gap”
Table 3 -13 shows the total community emissions with the reductions from the following policies and actions:
• Federal and State actions
• Additional General Plan policies and actions
The BAU forecast for 2020 already meets the target reduction of four percent below baseline; therefore, no analysis of the effects of federal and state policies and additional General Plan policies was necessary. With the effect of all the GHG reductions considered in this chapter, the total community forecast emissions are 455,556 MTCO2e in 2035. Table 3-13 shows that Carlsbad met its target for 2020 without any additional measures. However, by 2035, there is a GHG emissions “gap” of 116,817MTCO2e —approximately 20 percent of the total projected community emissions.

TABLE 3-8: MODIFIED BASELINE FORECAST (FORECAST COMMUNITY EMISSIONS

WITH FEDERAL AND STATE ACTIONS AND ADDITIONAL GENERAL PLAN POLICIES

AND ACTIONS)
Year
Business-
As-Usual
Forecast
(MTCO2e)
Total
Modified
Baseline
Forecast
(MTCO2e)
GHG Emissions Targets
(MTCO2e) Emissions “Gap” (MTCO2e)
2020 926,000 N/A 939,000 Target Met
2035 956,000 588,817 472,000 116,817

Conclusion
The emissions targets are met in the year 2020, with BAU forecast emissions of 926,000 MTCO2e meeting the target by about 13,000 MTCO2e. There is an emissions “gap” in the year 2035 of about 116,817 MTCO2e between the forecast emissions of 588,817 MTCO2e and the emissions target of 472,000 MTCO2e. Chapter 4 contains CAP GHG reduction measures to close the gap between forecast emissions and emissions targets in the year 2035. 4-1
4 CAP GHG Reduction
Measures
The forecast emissions in Chapter 3 incorporate reductions from (1) state and federal actions, (2) General Plan land use and roadways, and (3) additional General Plan policies and actions.

This chapter describes additional GHG reduction measures to close the emissions “gap” between emissions targets and forecast emissions for 2035. These are:
• Commercial and industrial photovoltaic systems
• Single-family, multi-family and commercial efficiency retrofits • Solar water heater/heat pump installation
• Efficient lighting standards
• Increased zero-emissions vehicle travel
• Transportation Demand Management (TDM)
• Citywide renewable projects
• Water delivery and conservation
The sections below describe the GHG reduction measures and explain how they will be implemented. The GHG reductions from thes e measures were quantified using the Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) mitigation calculator, a tool developed by the University of San Diego for cities within San Diego County. The EPIC mitigation calculator includes a “business as usual” (BAU) forecast for each measure estimating GHG reductions from trends already underway that will occur without any additional city intervention, based on regional San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) forecasts. For example, under the BAU forecast for residential photovoltaic (PV) systems, the EPIC mitigation calculator estimates that by the year 2035, energy produced by residential PV systems in the City of Carlsbad will be about 15.9 megawatts (MW), which will offset about 6,233 metric tons CO 2e (MTCO2 e).

The GHG reduction measures describe goals, amount of reduction in 2035, and actions to meet the target levels. The actions are categorized as s hort-term actions that will be implemented within one to two years of CAP adoption; or mid-term actions that will be implemented within 4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
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two to five years of CAP adoption. Actions identified as short to long-term, or mid to long- term are those actions that will begin in the short or mid-term, but take longer than five years to fully implement. Ongoing actions are those that continue throughout the duration of CAP implementation. The mixture of short -term, mid -term, long -term, and ongoing actions presented for each measure are intended to meet the goals in a realistic timeframe and provide an effective combination to reach the targets set forth. The “already-projected” amount is based on the forecast BAU emissions reduction, followed by a target level to reach the goal of the measure. The measures are then described in greater detail, as is the method of quantifying the GHG emissions reduction, and the responsibility and implementation of the measure is discussed. Each measure qualitatively describes costs and benefits, both to the city and the private sector. Overall benefits of GHG emissions reductions include decreased costs through energy efficiency, reduced risk to human health and welfare, and less global climate change.

The GHG reduction mitigation measures identified in this chapter are expected to achieve the targeted emission reductions. However, the nature, location, timing, size and other characteristics of future development projects may vary widely and additional project -level mitigation measures may be helpful or necessary to assist individual projects to achieve the targeted reductions. Accordingly, Appendix E to this Climate Action Plan provides a non- exclusive list of mitigation measures to be considered by the City and project applicants during project-level environmental review and adopted as needed to ensure that individual development projects achieve the targeted emission reductions.

Note: CAP Amendment No. 1, approved May 5, 2020, recalculated the anticipated 2035 GHG reductions for all measures, based upon new state and federal policies and the interaction between the existing measures and new Me asure P – Community Choice Energy. Four measures, Measures A, C, G and H, were eliminated for reasons described below. CAP Amendment No. 1 also updated the Actions calling for ordinance adoption; however, no other Actions were updated with this amendment. This update will occur with the comprehensive CAP update being processed in 2020-21.

4.1 Residential, Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaic Systems
Measure A: Promote Installation of Residential Photovoltaic Systems – Deleted in CAP Amendment No. 1
Goal: Promote installation of residential PV systems to produce an additional 9.1 MW above already projected amounts, or the equivalent of 2,682 more homes with PV systems, by 2035. 2035 Reduction: N/A
This Measure is no longer needed due to Section 150.1(c)14 of the 2019 California Energy Code, mandating all new low-rise residential construction include solar photovoltaic energy generation systems.

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Measure B: Promote Installation of Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaic Systems Goal: Promote installation of commercial and industrial PV systems to produce an additional 11.24 MW per year above projected amounts by 2035.
2035 Reduction: 4,457 MTCO2e
Actions: (See also actions A1 and A2 above).

B-1: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.130 of the Carlsbad Municipal Code, mandating solar photovoltaic energy generation systems on new non-residential buildings. (Ongoing)

Already-Projected Amount: The projected power generation from commercial and industrial PV systems is 22.3 MW in the year 2035, which is about 30 percent of projected commercial and industrial electricity use.

Target: The target is the PV production of 33 MW in the year 2035, whic h is the equivalent amount of power production to supply about 45 percent of projected commercial and industrial demand.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Photovoltaic (PV) systems convert solar energy into electricity. Measure B promotes the installatio n of PV systems on commercial buildings and industrial facilities above the already -projected amount of 22.3 MW, by an additional 11.24 MW. Together with the already-projected amount of power generation, Measure B would reach the target PV production of 33 MW in 2035.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure B.

Responsibility and Implementation: Property owners engaging in new construction and major renovations will be responsible for providing PV systems. The City is responsible for enforcing the ordinance, as well as encouraging the voluntary installation of non-residential PV systems through the city website and other means.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would result from the installation and maintenance of commercial and industrial PV systems. Benefits would accrue from reduced energy bills and increased property values.

City: City costs would occur from implementing and enforcing a nonresidential PV systems ordinance.
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4.2 Building Cogeneration
Measure C: Promote Building Cogeneration for Large Commercial and Industrial Facilities – Deleted in CAP Amendment No. 1
Goal: Promote building cogeneration for large commercial and industrial facilities, with the goal of producing 6.9 MW. 2035 Reduction: N/A
This Measures will no longer result in significant GHG reductions due to the high renewable electricity content associated with SDG&E’s RPS and the CEA CCE.

4.3 Single-family, Multi-family, Commercial, and City
Facility Efficiency Retrofits
Measure D: Encourage Single-Family Residential Energy Efficiency Retrofits Goal: Encourage single-family residential efficiency retrofits with the goal of a 50 percent energy reduction compared to baseline in 30 percent of the total single-family homes citywide by 2035 (approximately 10,000 single-family homes out of a total of 35,000).
2035 Reduction: 7,986 MTCO
2e
Actions:

D-1: Publicize available incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E’s Residential Energy Efficiency Program, on the city’s website and by other means. (Short-term)

D-2: Create a citywide “Energy Challenge,” similar to the Department of Energy’s Better Buildings Challenge, to promote cost-effective energy improvements, while having residents and building owners commit to reducing energy consumption. (Short-term)

D-3: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.190, mandating energy efficiency measures in existing residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing)

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projection for retrofits that would occur without this measure.

Target: The target is a 50 percent energy reduction in 30 percent of single -family homes citywide by the year 2035.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: As single -family homes use a large portion of the city’s total energy and older homes are substantially less efficient than newly constructed homes, there is a large opportunity to reduce GHG emissions through the retrofitting of existing homes. When a single -family homeowner seeks to make major improvements, the owner would be required to meet low-cost energy efficiency measures—such as changing light bulbs and switches, insulating exposed hot water piping, sealing air ducts, improving insulation, or installing a “cool roof.” Additional voluntary energy efficiency measures could incl ude providing weather stripping, promoting natural lighting and ventilation, and using “smart” thermostats to regulate energy use for heating and cooling.

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Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure D.

Responsibility and Implementation: Homeowners would implement this measure. SDG&E offers a Residential Energy Efficiency Program, which offers residential customers rebates to improve the efficiency of appliances, such as wat er heaters, washers, refrigerators, air conditioners, building insulating, and ceiling fans. The City will publicize this and related programs on its website and by other means.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would come f rom homeowners conducting energy audits and implementing efficiency retrofits. The cost of these retrofits is frequently 1 percent or less of the total renovation cost. Benefits would occur through reduced energy costs. Rebates are available as described above.

City: City costs would come from promoting incentive programs and implementing and enforcing a residential energy conservation ordinance.

Measure E: Encourage Multi-Family Residential Efficiency Retrofits Goal: Encourage multi-family residential efficiency retrofits with the goal of a 50 percent energy reduction in 30 percent of the projected amount of multi-family homes citywide by 2035 (approximately 5,000 out of a total of 17,000).
2035 Reduction: 3,993 MTCO2e
Actions:

Action D-1: Publicize available incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E’s Residential Energy Efficiency Program, on the city’s website and by other means. (Short-term)

Action D-2: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.190, mandating energy efficiency measures in existing residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing)

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projection for retrofits that would occur without this measure.

Target: The goal is a fifty percent energy reduction in thirty percent of the projected amount of multi-family homes citywide by the year 2035.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Multi -family residential retrofits provide an opportunity to reduce building energy use. Multi -family residential retrofits are similar to the single-family retrofits described in Measure D. Other examples of potential multi-family residential energy efficiency improvements include replacing incandescent and halogen lamps with LED or CFL lamps , installing energy -efficient windows and efficient appliances , and using “smart” thermostats to regulate energy use for heating and cooling.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure E.
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Responsibility and Implementation: Multi-family residential unit owners would implement this measure. SDG&E offers a Residential Energy Efficiency Program, which offers residential customers rebates to improve the efficiency of appliances, such as water heaters, washers, refrigerators, air conditioners, building insulating, and ceiling fans. The City will publicize this and related programs on its website and by other means.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would come from multi-family residential unit owners conducting energy audits and implementing efficiency retrofits. Benefits would occur through reduced energy costs. Rebates are available as described above.

City: City costs would come from promoting incentive programs and implementing and enforcing a residential energy conservation ordinance.

Measure F: Encourage Commercial and City Facility Efficiency Retrofits Goal: Encourage commercial and city facility efficiency retrofits with the goal equivalent to a 40 percent energy reduction in 30 percent of commercial square footage citywide and in city facilities by 2035.
2035 Reduction: 7,579 MTCO2e
Actions:

F-1: Undertake a program of energy efficiency retrofits for city-owned buildings, with the goal of 40 percent reduction in energy use, beginning with retrofits that would result in the most substantial energy savings. (Short-term)

F-2: Promote available incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E’s Energy Efficiency Business Rebates and Incentives Program, on the city’s website and by other means. (Short-term)

F-3: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.21, Section 18.21.155, mandating energy efficiency measures in new non-residential buildings and existing non-residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing)

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projection for retrofits that would occur without this measure.

Target: The target is equivalent to a 40 percent energy reduction in 30 percent of the projected amount of commercial square footage and in city facilities.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Relatively straightforward fixes to commercial and city-owned buildings can significantly reduce spending on fuel and electricity for commercial buildings. Examples of retrofits include installing efficient boilers and equipment, installation of high-quality windows, efficient lighting, and other building energy improvements.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure F.

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Responsibility and Implementation: Building owners would implement this measure for commercial buildings.14 Funding is available through incentive and rebate programs, such as SDG&E’s Energy Efficiency Business Rebates an d Incentives Program. SANDAG prepared an Energy Roadmap for the city, which included energy audits for most municipal facilities and identified energy conservation measures the city can use to reduce energy use in city municipal operations .15 Funding for city retrofits can be provided through the Energy Efficiency Financing for Public Sector Projects program, described above in Measure C. As well, the city will use its IRF to install energy efficiency retrofits as part of refurbishment of existing city facilities.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would come from building owners and business owners implementing efficiency retrofits. Benefits would occur through reduced energy costs. Costs could be offset through incentive and rebate programs.

City: City costs would come from retrofitting city facilities, providing resources to help guide building owners to implement this measure , promoting available incentive and rebate programs, and implementing and enforcing a commercial energy conservation ordinance.

4.4 Commercial and City Facility Commissioning
Measure G: Promote Commercial and City Facility Commissioning – Deleted in CAP Amendment No. 1
Goal: Encourage commercial and city facility commissioning, or improving existing and new building operations, with the goal equivalent to a 40 percent energy reduction in 30 percent of commercial square footage citywide and in city-owned buildings by 2035.
2035 Reduction: N/A
This measure is now administered through the utility energy efficiency programs and accounted for in the legislative business-as-usual projection for state policy and programs

14 AB 802 requires an owner of a nonresidential building 50,000 square feet or larger to benchmark the building’s energy use data and annually disclose the energy use to the state. 15 SANDAG. 2014. “Energy Roadmap for Local Governments.” Available:
http://www.sandag.org/index.asp?classid=17&projectid=373&fuseaction=projects.detail. Accessed: February 25, 2014.
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4.5 Green Building Code
Measure H: Implement Green Building Measures – Deleted in CAP Amendment No. 1 Goal: Implementation of a 5 percent improvement in energy efficiency above the City of Carlsbad residential green building code (based on CALGreen, the statewide green building code), for new construction.
2035 Reduction: N/A
This Measure is no longer needed because new and future building codes are already more efficient than the 2013 CALGreen code.

4.6 Efficient Lighting Standards
Measure I: Promote Replacement of Incandescent and Halogen Bulbs with LED or Other Energy Efficient Lamps
Goal: Replace 50 percent of incandescent and halogen light bulbs citywide with LED or similarly efficient lighting by 2035. 2035 Reduction: 22 MTCO2e
Actions:

I-1: Replace 50 percent of incandescent or halogen light bulbs in city facilities with LED or similarly efficient lighting, or follow SANDAG Energy Roadmap recommendations for lighting in city facilities, whichever results in greater energy savings. (Short-term)

I-2: Promote the use of LED or other energy efficient lamps by publicizing rebate programs and information from SDG&E on the benefits of the use of LED or other energy efficient lighting on the city’s webpage. (Short-term)

I-3: Evaluate the feasibility of adopting a minimum natural lighting and ventilation standard, developed based on local conditions. Demonstrate natural lighting and ventilation features in future city facility upgrade or new construction. (Mid-term)

Already-Projected Amount: There are no projections for this measure.

Target: The target is to replace 50 percent of incandescent and halogen bulbs citywide with LED bulbs or similarly efficient lighting by 2035.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Replace inefficient incandescent and halogen light bulbs with more efficient light bulbs to reduce the amount of energy needed to power the bulbs, which will reduce the demand for electricity and thus the amount of GHG emissions created by the electrical power generation. In November 2019, the California Energy Commission (CEC) voted to ban the sale of inefficient light bulbs, effective January 2020. Inefficient light bulbs are defined as any general service lamps with a efficacy of less than 45 lumens per watt.

SANDAG prepared an Energy Roadmap for the city, which included energy audits for most municipal facilities. The city has, and will continue to, implement the lighting efficiency replacements with the master refurbishment schedule.

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Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: LED light bulbs reduce energy consumption and therefore GHG emissions by 75 percent compared to incandescent lighting.16 Promotions and rebates, outreach and education, and the recent CEC decision have all contributed to lighting efficiency replacements in both the residential and commercial sectors. Therefore, the GHG reductions from this measure are not significant.

Responsibility and Implementation: Carlsbad’s street lights were replaced in 2011 with energy-saving induction units, leading to a reduction of approximately 1,240 MTCO2e per year (already taken into account). The City has been and will continue to replace light bulbs within City facilities with LED or similarly efficient lighting. For residential and commercial customers, SDG&E currently does not offer rebates for the purchase of LED or similarly efficient lighting, but the City will promote rebates as they come available on its web site and by other means. The City will also provide information on the benefits of the use of LED and efficient lighting from SDG&E and other sources.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would be from purchasing LED light bulbs for new construction, and replacing existing light bulbs over time . Benefits would be from reduced energy costs and reduced cost to replace light bulbs (as LED lights last substantially longer).

City: City costs would come from replacing existing inefficient lighting in City facilities with more efficient light bulbs over time, providing information to homeowners and business owners to encourage a switch to LED or other efficient lamps, and evaluating the feasibility of a natural lighting and ventilation ordinance.

4.7 Solar Water Heater/Heat Pump Installation
Measure J: New Construction Residential and Commercial Solar Water Heater Installation Goal: Install solar water heaters or heat pumps on all new residential and commercial construction. Retrofit up to 30 percent of existing homes and commercial buildings to include solar water heaters or heat pumps.
2035 Reduction: 2,813 MTCO2e
Actions:

J-1: Promote the installation of solar water heaters and heat pumps by publicizing incentive, rebate and financing programs, such as PACE programs and the California Solar Initiative for renovations of existing buildings by posting this information on the city’s website and by other means. (Short-term)

J-2: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.30, Sections 18.30.150 and 18.30.170, mandating alternative water heating requirements in new residential and non-residential buildings. (Ongoing)

16 http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=find_a_product.showProductGroup&pgw_code=LB 4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
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Already-Projected Amount: There are no solar water heaters/heat pumps projected to be installed.

Target: The target is to install solar water heaters or heat pumps on all new residential and commercial construction, and retrofit up to 30 percent of existi ng homes and commercial buildings to include solar water heaters or heat pumps.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Solar water heaters use water heated by the sun to provide domestic and commercial hot water. Solar water heaters reduce the demand for energy used to heat water. A solar water heater can contribute 30 to 80 percent of the energy needed for residential water heating. 17 Heat pumps are devices that use a small amount of energy to move heat from one location to another.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure J.

Responsibility and Implementation: The City of Carlsbad currently participates in three Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) programs: CaliforniaFIRST, Ygrene, and California HERO. PACE programs provide financing to eligible property owners for sustainable energy projects, including the installation of solar water heaters and heat pumps to improve residential energy efficiency. Installation of solar wa ter heaters on all new residential and commercial water heaters could occur through city ordinance. Retrofit of existing homes could occur through a combination of additional encouragement and incentives.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs would occur through the installation of residential and commercial solar water heaters, which would be passed onto building owners. Benefits would occur through reduced water heating costs.

City: City costs would occur from implementing and enforcing an ordinance requiring new homes and commercial buildings to install solar water heaters or heat pumps.

17 California Energy Commission. 2009. Go Solar California: A Step by Step Tool Kit for Local Governments to Go Solar. Available: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-180-2009-005/CEC-180-2009-005.PDF.

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4.8 Transportation Demand Management
Measure K: Promote Transportation Demand Management Strategies Goal: Promote Transportation Demand Management Strategies with a goal of achieving a 10 percent increase in alternative mode use by workers in Carlsbad, for a total of 32 percent alternative mode use.
2035 Reduction: 6,325 MTCO2e
Actions:

K-1: Implement the citywide transportation demand management (TDM) plan and strategies. (Ongoing)

K-2: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.51, mandating TDM improvements and strategies for non-residential development. (Ongoing)

Already-Projected Amount: There are no projections for this measure. As of 2012, alternative (non-single occupancy vehicle use—such as working at home, carpooling, transit, walking and biking) mode use by Carlsbad workers is 22 percent. 18 Of these alternative uses, most workers work at home (44 percent) and carpool (36 percent), followed by public transit (10 percent), other means (including biking, 6 percent), and walking (5 percent).

Target: The Carlsbad General Plan promotes the use of Transportation Demand Management (TDM), but does not specify a target goal. This measure specifies a goal of achieving an additional 10 percent use of alternative modes, for an overall 32 percent alternative mode use by workers employed in Carlsbad. This is projected to be achieved through 40 percent alternative mode use by workers in new nonresidential buildings, and 30 percent alternative mode use by workers in existing (as of 2013) nonresidential buildings.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Chapter 3 quantifies emissions reductions from the Carlsbad General Plan due to bikeway system improvements, pedestrian improvements, traffic calming, parking facilities and policies, and transportation improvements. This measure is distinct from these reductions because it focuses on TDM, or the application of strategies and policies to reduce travel demand, or redistribute it in time and space. This measure reduces VMT by shifting single occupancy vehicle use to alternative mode s, reducing the average commute length, promoting an alternate work schedule, and promoting telecommuting.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure K.

Responsibility and Implementation: The City of Carlsbad will implement a TDM plan describing st rategies to reduce travel demand . The c ity will also implement an ordinance applying to nonresidential developments meeting a specified minimum trip generation

18 American Community Survey. 2012. Selected Economic Characteristics for Carlsbad, California. Available:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/.
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threshold, providing connections to public transportation whenever possible. The city will facilitate a coordinated effort between local businesses and NCTD to develop a route expansion and ridership plan wherever feasible. SANDAG’s iCommute program assists commuters by providing free carpool and ridematching services, a s ubsidized vanpool program, t he Guaranteed Ride Home program, SchoolPool carpooling programs for parents, and information about teleworking, all of which can support the city’s TDM goals.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Private costs could include need for a TDM coordinator for private businesses, providing on-site facilities (showers, lockers), and shuttle programs . Benefits would accrue from reduced spending on gasoline, and reduced traffic from less employee commute.

City: City costs would result implementing and enforcing a TDM plan and ordinance.

Implementation costs would include conducting an outreach and education campaign to promote the benefits of TDM.

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4.9 Increased Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Travel
Measure L: Promote an Increase in the Amount of Zero-Emissions Vehicle Travel Goal: Promote an increase in the amount of ZEV19 miles
traveled from a projected 4.5 percent to 25 percent of total vehicle miles traveled by 2035.
2035 Reduction: 49,912 MTCO2e
Actions:

L-1: Working with industry partners, construct a “PV to EV” pilot project to install a PV charging station at a city facility (such as the Faraday Center ), to charge city ZEVs. The purpose of the pilot project would be to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating more ZEV into the city’s fleet. (Short-term)

L-2: Prepare a community-wide charging station siting plan, which evaluates site visibility and exposure, EV driving ranges, high volume destinations, locations with high ownership or interest in EVs, and cost of construction. (Short-term)

L-3: Construct ZEV charging stations based on the community-wide charging station siting plan described in L-2 above. The ZEV charging stations will be funded by grant funds when available, and the city will post signage directing ZEVs to charging stations. (Mid-term)

L-4: Offer dedicated ZEV parking, and provide charging stations adjacent to ZEV parking as identified in the community-wide charging station siting plan. (Mid-term)

L-5: Adopt requirements for ZEV parking for new developments. (Short-term)

L-6: Implement and enforce Title 18, Chapter 18.21, Sections 18.21.140 and 18.21.150, mandating electric vehicle charging infrastructure in new residential and non-residential building and existing residential and non-residential buildings undergoing major renovations. (Ongoing) L-7: Update the city’s Fleet Management Program to include a low and zero- emissions vehicle replacement/purchasing policy. Increase the proportion of fleet low and zero–emissions vehicle miles traveled to 25 percent of all city-related VMT by 2035. (Short-term)

Already-Projected Amount: According to the EPIC mitigation calculator, 4.5 percent of the vehicle miles traveled in 2035 are projected to be from ZEVs.

Target: The target is to increase the proportion of vehicle miles traveled from 4.5 percent to 25 percent by the year 2035.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Driving ZEVs reduces carbon emissions by eliminating direct tailpipe emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs. The production of electricity used to power electric vehicles generates GHGs; however, SDG&E electricity generates much less GHGs than the direct combustion of fossil fuels. Furthermore, electric vehicles can be charged at home or the workplace us ing energy produced by PV panels, eliminating GHG emissions completely, at least for the months when PV panels produce the full amount of electricity needed for operations. The ability to provide entirely emissions-free

19 Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) is a vehicle that emits no tailpipe pollutants from the onboard source of power. ZEVs include electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and plug-in hybrids, when in electric mode. 4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
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transportation through the use of PV panels to charge ZEVs should be capitalized on whenever possible.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure L.

Responsibility and Implementation: The city will promote an increase in the amount of electric vehicle travel by constructing ZEV charging stations using the community-wide station siting plan. Grant funding for the construction of the ZEV charging stations can come from the California Energy Commission’s Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure grant, or other similar grant programs. The city would be responsible for operating (including electricity provision, for stations not using PV panels) and maintaining charging stations.

The city is also promoting the use of ZEVs by requiring dedicated ZEV parking and charging infrastructure for new development and major renovations . Through its Fleet Vehicle Replacement Fund, the City of Carlsbad is increasing the city fleet mix of ZEVs, hybrids, and other low - or zero-emissions vehicles to increase low and zero– emissions vehicle miles traveled to 25 percent by 2035.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: The private cost would be the purchase of an electric vehicle and the cost of electricity to power the electric vehicle, for community members who elect to purchase an electric vehicle.

Costs may also occur from installing EV chargers or pre -wiring into new residential construction or major renovations. Benefits would accrue from reduced spending on gasoline.

City: City costs would be from planning for, constructing, operating (including providing electricity, for stations not using PV panels) and maintaining ZEV charging stations, which may be offset by potential user fees or grants from the California Energy Commission, or other similar agencies . City costs would also be from implementing ordinances to require the installation of ZEV chargers.. City costs may also occur from fleet purchases of ZEV vehicles.

Benefits would accrue from reduced spending on gasoline.

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4.10 Citywide Renewable Projects
Measure M: Develop More Citywide Renewable Energy Projects Goal: Produce the equivalent amount of energy to power 2,000 homes (roughly equivalent to a 5 percent reduction) by 2035 from renewable energy projects.
2035 Reduction: 2,774 MTCO2e
Actions:

M-1: Conduct a feasibility study to evaluate citywide renewable energy projects and prioritize accordingly. (Short-term)

M-2: Incorporate renewable energy measures such as PV system installation on city buildings and parking lots, or microturbine installation on city facilities, with the goal of producing approximately 12,000 megawatt-hours per year. (Mid to Long-term)

M-3: Pursue available funding sources for the construction of renewable energy projects by the city, such as Energy Efficiency Financing for Public Sector Projects and SGIP. (Mid to Long-term)

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projected amount for this measure.

Target: The target is the production of 12,341 megawatt -hours per year, approximately the energy required to power 2,000 homes.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: The City of Carlsbad has a number of renewable energy projects in various stages of planning and development. The Maerkle Reservoir Hydropower Project, which has been permitted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), is estimated to produce about 833 MWh per year. In 2014, Alga Norte Community Park was outfitted with a PV system in the parking area, which will generate some 360 MWh of electricity per year. Other planned projects include a second pressure-reducing hydroelectric generator, similar to the Maerkle Reservoir Hydropower Project, and a potential large PV system at the Maerkle Reservoir property.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reduction: The production of 12,341 megawatt-hours per year corresponds to a reduction of 2,774 MTCO
2e.

Responsibility and Implementation: The City of Carlsbad would be responsible for conducting a feasibility study, determining suitable renewable technologies, siting renewable projects, and constructing and maintaining the renewable energy projects. Funding sources include the Energy Efficiency Financing for Public Sector Projects, which includes renewable energies such as PV systems and other distributed generation technologies, as well as the Self- Generation Incentive Program (SGIP). As well, the city will us e IRF to install renewable energy systems as part of refurbishment of existing city facilities, where it is feasible to do so.

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Costs and Benefits:

Private: There are no direct private costs from this measure.

City: City costs are planning (including a feasibility study), constructing and maintaining the renewable facilities, some of which may be offset through the funding sources described above.

Benefits accrue from electricity savings to City through net energy metering.

4.11 Water Utilities System Improvements
Measure N: Reduce GHG Intensity of Water Utilities Supply Conveyance, Treatment, and Distribution 20
Goal: Reduce the intensity of GHG emissions from water utilities (including water supply, wastewater, and recycled water) conveyance, treatment, and distribution by 8 percent by 2035. 2035 Reduction: 713 MTCO2e
Action:

N-1: Improve water utilities (including water supply, wastewater, and recycled water) conveyance, treatment and distribution, and other system improvements. (Mid to Long-term)

Already-Projected Amount: The goal of an 8 percent reduction by 2035 is the default value in the EPIC mitigation calculator.

Target: The target is to achieve the already-projected amount.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: This measure estimates emissions reductions from changes in the efficiency of water utilities (including water supply, wastewater, and recycled water) conveyance, treatment, and distribution facilities within the City of Carlsbad. 21 This combines improvements in overall system efficiency, the reduction in GHG intensity of electricity used to move water , wastewater, and recycled water, and replacing potable water needs with expanded recycled water supply. Carlsbad’s Sewer Master Plan, for example, calls for eliminating se veral sewer lift stations and replacing them with gravity pipelines, which would reduce energy usage.22 The Encina Water Pollution Control Facility exemplifies GHG reductions from water treatment; the facility currently is able to satisfy 60 percent of its energy needs through methane capture and cogeneration and has a long -term goal of energy independence from purchased energy. The 2012 Carlsbad Municipal Water District Recycled

20 For purposes of this measure, water utilities include potable water treatment and conveyance, sewer conveyance, and recycled water treatment and conveyance systems.
21 Note: The GHG reductions from water conservation measures detailed in the 2010 Carlsbad Municipal Water District Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) have already been considered in the GHG forecasts. Further GHG reductions may be possible through greater c onservation efforts than those outlined in the UWMP, including Ordinance No. 44 (2009); however, these have not been quantified in this CAP. 22 The City is replacing three sewer lift stations, which use a combined total of approximately 6,200 kWh of elect ricity per year with gravity pipelines, in addition to other planned rehabilitation upgrades included in the Sewer Master Plan.

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Water Master Plan estimates that, by 2030, recycled water demand could double f rom 4,100 acre-feet/year to about 9,100 acre -feet/year. Expanding the recycled water system w ould appreciably reduce the need for more expensive imported water needs in the future.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reduction: The EPIC mitigation calculator was used to quantify emission reductions for Measure N, which estimates wastewater emissions reductions from methane capture, reductions from water treatment and distribution facilities, and changes in the supply network, including greater use of recycled water.

Responsibility and Implementation: The City of Carlsbad would be responsible for making the improvements to water supply conveyance, treatment, and distribution, which could occur through improvements to the Carlsbad Municipal Water District’s system.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: There would be no private costs for this measure.

City: Costs to the City of Carlsbad are from implementing the improvements to the water utilities system. Benefits occur by reducing energy costs and having newer water delivery infrastructure.

Measure O: Encourage the Installation of Greywater and Rainwater Collection Systems Goal: Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater collection systems with a goal of 15 percent of homes by 2035. 2035 Reduction: 137 MTCO2e
Actions:

O-1: Host workshops on greywater and rainwater collection systems through the Carlsbad Municipal Water District, or partner with existing workshop providers, for homeowners interested in installing systems suitable for their property. (Mid-term)

O-2: Create a design reference manual, or provide links to an existing one, for the design of greywater and rainwater collection systems. (Mid-term)

O-3: Evaluate the feasibility of offering a rebate for residential greywater systems that require a permit to cover the cost of obtaining a permit. (Mid-term)

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projection for this measure.

Target: The target is for 15 percent of single-family homes to have greywater and rainwater collection systems installed by 2035.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: Greywater is wastewater generated from hand washing, laundry machines, and showers and baths that have not been contaminat ed by any toilet discharge. Greywater can be recycled onsite for toilet flushing and subsurface (below ground) landscape irrigation using a greywater system. The regulations for the design, construction and use of greywater systems are in Chapter 16A of th e California Plumbing 4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
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Code. Some small greywater systems that involve laundry machines or single fixtures only are exempt from permits. More complicated greywater systems require building permits from the City. Rainwater harvesting is the practice of collecting rainwater from hard surfaces, such as roofs, and storing it in barrels or cisterns, which can be used for landscape irrigation. Measure O is to promote the use of on-site greywater and rainwater collection systems for residences.

Quantification of G HG Emissions Reductions: Nationwide, about seven percent of U.S.

GHG emissions are from water and wastewater service provision to urban populations. 23 For this measure, it was assumed that seven percent of the citywide emissions are from water provision and wastewater services.
24 Therefore, about 32,000 MTCO2e of 2035 emissions are from water provision and wastewater services.

If maximally pursued, the use of greywater and rainwater collection systems could reduce water demands by 25 percent on a statewide scale. 25 For this measure, it was assumed the 25 percent reduction in water demand would scale to individual houses that implement greywater and rainwater collection systems. A goal of 15 percent of homes with greywater and rainwater harvesting systems was chosen. A 25 percent reduction of water use in 15 percent of homes corresponds to a GHG reduction of about 137 MTCO2e.

Responsibility and Implementation: Homeowners would be responsible for the installation of greywater and rainwater collection systems. The City of Carlsbad will, through the Carlsbad Municipal Water District, host greywater and rainwater harvesting workshops, or partner with existing workshop providers. The City will also reference or develop a greywater and rainwater collection system design manual and consider offering a rebate for residential greywater systems that require a permit to cover the cost of obtaining a permit.

Costs and Benefits:

Private: Costs to homeowners would be from constructing and maintaining greywater and rainwater collection systems. Benefits would accrue over time through water savings.

City: Costs to the City of Carlsbad are from hosting workshops and developing or reviewing greywater and rainwater collection manuals to adopt.

23 Source: V. Novotny. 2010. “Urban Water and Energy Use: From Current US Use to Cities of the Future.” Cities of the Future/Urban River Restoration. Water Environment Federation. 9: 118-140. 24 The 7 percent estimate was used for the purpose of this reduction measure because the Chapter 2 inventory did not directly quantify all emissions associated with water use, but rather inclu ded those as part of commercial, industrial and residential energy use (e.g. heating water).
25 Source: J. Loux, R. Winer-Skonovd, E. Gellerman. 2012. “Evaluation of Combined Rainwater and Greywater Systems for Multiple Development Types in Mediterranean Climates.” Journal of Water Sustainability. 2(1): 55-77.

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4.13 Clean Electricity
Measure P: Increase the Proportion of Clean Electricity in Community Energy Consumption Goal: Achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030 for 95% of the residential bundled load and 85% commercial + industrial bundled load.
2035 Reduction: 56,207 MTCO2e
Action:

P-1: Continue participation in the Clean Energy Alliance Community Choice Energy program (Ongoing).

P-2 Explore the purchase of renewable energy credits if Community Choice Energy program is not reaching 2035 goal.

Already-Projected Amount: There is no projection for this measure.

Target: The target is for 95 percent of the bundled residential load and 85 percent of the bundled commercial plus industrial load to use 100% renewable electricity.

GHG Reduction Measure Description: California Assembly Bill 117 allows local governments to form Community Choice Aggregations, commonly referred to as Community Choice Energy (CCE) program. These programs offer an alternative electric power option to customers with the area currently served by an investor-owned utility. CCEs allow local jurisdictions to increase the proportion of renewable energy available to customers that, in turn, lowers the GHG emissions from electricity consumption. Another means to lower electricity - related GHG emissions is to purchase renewable energy credits as an offset to the consumption of electricity from non-renewable generation sources.

Quantification of GHG Emissions Reductions: The GHG emissions reductions anticipated with this measure are derived from the Community Choice Energy Technical Feasibility Study (prepared by EES Consulting, Inc. and dated March 28, 2019), which was prepared for the cities of Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas and Oceanside. The study evaluates three renewable energy portfolio scenarios: an SDG&E equivalent; 100% renewable by 2030; and, 100% renewable upon inception. The GHG emissions reductions associated wi th this measure are beyond the reductions assumed by the state mandated renewable portfolio standard.

Responsibility and Implementation: The Clean Energy Alliance Joint Powers Authority and its staff are responsible for implementing the Community Choice Energy program. Electricity customers can choose the proportion of renewable energy they consume (50% or 100%). City staff will monitor the program participation rates and renewable proportions, amount of renewable energy procured, and the resulting GHG emissions reductions to determine the need for purchasing renewable energy credits to meet the 2035 reduction target.

4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
4-20
Costs and Benefits:

Private: Costs to electricity customers will be a function of the Clean Energy Alliance rate structure and the proportion of renewable energy purchased through the program.

City: Costs to the City of Carlsbad are from staff and financial contributions to the Clean Energy Alliance Joint Powers Authority and, if needed, the purchase of renewable energy credits.

4.14 Combined Effect of CAP GHG Reduction Measures and
Forecast with CAP
Table 4 -1 shows a summary of the CAP GHG reduction measures. While the individual measures may be implemented over different timescales, for the purposes of calculating their impact in this section, it was assumed that the effect of all measures would begin in the mid- term time frame and increase linearly to reach the full reduction potential in the year 2035.

As a whole, the CAP GHG reduction measures wer e designed to enable Carlsbad to achie ve its GHG reduction target in the year 2035. The combined GHG reductions from these measures is 142,918 MTCO2e in 2035, which covers the emissions “gap” identified in Chapter 3. Table 4-2 adds the effect of the CAP GHG reduction measures to the community forecast, and compares the resulting forecast with CAP GHG reduction measures to emission targets. A s proposed, this CAP meets the emissions targets for both 2020 and 2035. Figure 4-1 shows the forecast with CAP reduction measures compared to the emissions targets to demonstrate that both 2020 and 2035 targets will be met with the implementation of this CAP.

For this CAP to successfully be implemented, the City of Carlsbad must play a prominent role in implementing the CAP GHG reduction measures . In addition to responsibility and implementation covered for each measure in this chapter, the following chapter discusses how the CAP will be revised and updated in the future to ensure that the targets are met.

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TABLE 4-1: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES SUMMARY
Measure
Letter
GHG Reduction Measures GHG Reduction in
2035 (MTCO2e)
A Install residential PV systems N/A
B Install commercial and industrial PV systems 4,457
C Promote building cogeneration for large commercial and industrial facilities
N/A
D Encourage single-family residential efficiency retrofits 7,986 E Encourage multi-family residential efficiency retrofits 3,993 F Encourage commercial and city facility efficiency retrofits 7,579 G Promote commercial and city facility commissioning, or improving building operations
N/A
H Implementation of Green Building Code N/A
I Replace Incandescent bulbs with LED bulbs 22
J New construction residential and commercial solar water heater/heat pump installation & retrofit of existing residential 2,813
K Promote Transportation Demand Management 6,325
L Increase zero-emissions vehicle travel 49,912
M Develop more citywide renewable energy projects 2,774 N Reduce the GHG intensity of water supply conveyance, treatment and delivery
713
O Encourage the installation of greywater and rainwater systems 137 P Implement Community Choice Energy 56,207
Total GHG Reductions 142,918

TABLE 4 -2: FORECAST COMMUNITY EMISSIONS WITH CAP GHG REDUCTION

MEASURES AND TARGETS
Year Business-
As-Usual
Forecast
(MTCO2e)
Total
Modified
Baseline
Forecast
(MTCO2e)

CAP GHG
Reduction
Measures
(MTCO2e)
Forecast
Community
Emissions with

CAP GHG
Reduction
Measures
GHG
Emission
Targets
(MTCO2e)
Emission
Target
Met?
2020 926,000 N/A N/A N/A 939,000 Yes
2035 956,000 588,817 142,918 445,899 472,000 Yes

4: CAP GHG REDUCTION MEASURES
4-22
Figure 4 -1: Forecast Community Emissions with CAP Reduction Measures and Targets

5-1
5 Implementation, Monitoring
and Reporting
Chapters 3 and 4 identify a comprehensive set of goals and specific, enforceable measures and actions that the city will take in order to meet its GHG emissions targets. Implementation and monitoring are key to ensuring that the city is successful in reaching those targets. The city will use an adaptive management approach to CAP implementation. Adjustments to management actions will be made as needed to support continuous improvement based on measured results, monitoring effectiveness, new t echnology, or in response to deficiencies in program assessment results. This chapter describes how the City of Carlsbad will implement the CAP and monitor and report on its effectiveness, consistent with State CEQA Guidelines Section s 15183.5(b)(1)(D) and (E).

For discretionary projects seeking to use CEQA streamlining provisions, in an environmental document the city shall refer to the required measures in this CAP as mandatory conditions of approval or as mitigation. This will enable projects to benefit from CEQA streamlining provisions, while ensuring that the city can achieve the reduction targets outlined in this plan.

5.1 Implementation
Table 5-1 lists all of the measures and actions identified in Chapters 3 and 4 along with the following information:

Responsible Department: The city department (s) that will be primarily responsible for implementing, monitoring, and reporting on the progress for each measure.

Annual GHG Reduction Goal: The estimated annual emission reductions anticipated by the 2035 target year.

Performance Target: The expected quantified outcome of the GHG reduction measure.

Progress Indicators: The types of data that will be collected to measure progress toward the performance target and correlate to GHG emissions reductions . Progress indicators will be 5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
5-2
confirmed as part of the implementation of each measure. If a recommended progress indicator is found to be infeasible to collect or track, an alternative indicator will be identified.

Unit of Measure : Input units used to calculate GHG emissions reductions (MTCO 2e), whereby:

Gallons of water = water consumption
kWh/MWh = electricity consumption in kilowatt-hours or megawatt-hours MTCO2e = metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions
Therm = natural gas consumption in therms
VMT = vehicle miles traveled

Implementation Timeframe: The schedule by which each action is to be implemented , beginning from the year the CAP is adopted, as follows:

Short-term – one to two years
Mid-term – two to five years
Short to Long-term, or Mid-to Long-term – actions that will begin in the short or mid- term, but take longer than five years to fully implement.

Ongoing - continue for the duration of CAP implementation

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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
General Plan Measures (see Section 3.6 for complete descriptions)

Bikeway system improvements
Public Works,
Community & Economic
Development

2035: 608
Achieve 2.85 miles of bike lanes per
square mile, corresponding to .07% VMT
reduction VMT Short to Long-
term o Miles of bikeways added
o Miles of bikeways enhanced

Pedestrian improvements and increased
connectivity
Public Works,
Parks & Recreation,
Community & Economic
Development
2035: 615
1% VMT reduction
VMT Short to Long-
term
o Miles of pedestrian and trail
improvements
o Number of new connection points

Traffic calming
Public Works,
Community & Economic
Development
2035: 969
.25% VMT reduction
VMT Short to Long-
term
o Number of traffic calming devices
installed
o Vehicle travelway width reduction
o Pedestrian crossing width reduction

Parking facilities and policies
Public Works,
Community & Economic
Development

2035: 6,618
2% VMT reduction
VMT Short to Long-
term
o % reduction in parking standards
o Number of projects with alternative
parking provisions (shared parking,
unbundled parking cost, valet, etc.)
o Number of EV parking spaces installed

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators

Transportation improvements
Public Works,
Community & Economic
Development
2035: 2,085
.63 VMT reduction
VMT
MTCO2e
Short to Long-
term o Transit ridership counts
CAP Measures (see Sections 4.1 - 4.11 for complete descriptions) A – Promote installation of residential
photovoltaic systems N/A N/A
B - Promote Installation of commercial and
industrial photovoltaic systems 2035: 4,457
Promote installation of commercial and
industrial PV systems to produce an
additional 10.7 MW per year above
projected amounts, or roughly 15 percent
of projected commercial and industrial
electricity use, by 2035

B-1: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.130 of the
Carlsbad Municipal Code, mandating
solar photovoltaic energy generation
systems on new non-residential
buildings.

Community
Development o MW installed PV kWh Ongoing

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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators

B-2: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.130 of the
Carlsbad Municipal Code, mandating
solar photovoltaic energy generation
systems on existing non-residential
buildings undergoing major renovations
Community
Development o MW installed PV kWh Ongoing
C - Promote building cogeneration for large
commercial and industrial facilities N/A N/A
D - Encourage single-family residential
efficiency retrofits
2020: 323
2025: 593
2030: 862
2035: 1,132
Encourage single-family residential
efficiency retrofits with the goal of a 50
percent energy reduction compared to
baseline in 30 percent of the total single-
family homes citywide by 2035
(approximately 10,000 single-family
homes out of a total of 35,000)

D-1: Promote residential energy
efficiency incentive and rebate programs
Public Works,
Communications
o Promotional activities conducted kWh/therms Short-term

D-2: Create a citywide “Energy
Challenge”
Public Works,
Communications

o Program launch
o Promotional activities conducted
o Number of program participants and/or
sq. footage of buildings in program
kWh/therms Short-term
D-3: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.190,
mandating energy efficiency measures in
existing residential buildings undergoing
major renovations.

Community
Development o Number and/or sq. footage of existing
homes retrofitted kWh/therms Ongoing

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
E - Encourage multi-family residential
efficiency retrofits 2035: 3,993
Encourage multi-family residential
efficiency retrofits with the goal of a 50
percent energy reduction in 30 percent of
the projected amount of multi-family
homes citywide by 2035 (approximately
5,000 out of a total of 17,000)

E-1 and E-2: See Measures D-1 and D-2
above
Public Works,
Communications,
Community
Development
o See Actions D-1 through D-2 above kWh/therms Short-term E-3: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.30, Section 18.30.190,
mandating energy efficiency measures in
existing residential buildings undergoing
major renovations.
o Number and/or sq. footage of existing
homes retrofitted kWh/therms Ongoing
F - Encourage commercial and city facility
efficiency retrofits 2035: 7,579
Encourage commercial and city facility
efficiency retrofits with the goal of a 40
percent energy reduction in 30 percent of
commercial square footage citywide and
in city facilities by 2035

F-1: Install energy efficiency retrofits
for city-owned buildings Public Works o Sq. footage of buildings retrofitted o % energy use reduction kWh/therms Short-term

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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
F-2: Promote nonresidential energy
efficiency incentive and rebate programs
Public Works,
Community
Development,
Communications

o Promotional activities conducted
o Number of program participants and/or
sq. footage of buildings retrofitted
o % energy use reduction
kWh/therms Short-term

F-3: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.21, Section 18.21.155,
mandating energy efficiency measures in
new non-residential buildings and
existing non-residential buildings
undergoing major renovations.

Community
Development o % energy use reduction kWh/therms Ongoing G - Promote commercial and city facility
commissioning N/A N/A
H - Implement green building measures N/A construction/A I - Promote replacement of incandescent
and halogen bulbs with LED or other
energy efficient lamps
2035: 22
Replace 50 percent of incandescent and
halogen light bulbs citywide with LED or
similarly efficient lighting by 2035

I-1: Replace incandescent and
halogen light bulbs in city facilities Public Works o Building sq footage upgraded o Number of fixtures replaced kWh Short-term
I-2: Promote the use of LED rebate
programs
Public Works,
Communications
o Promotional activities conducted kWh Short-term

I-3: Develop natural lighting and
ventilation standards; install city facility
demonstration project
Community
Development
Public Works

o Feasibility study conducted
o Number of buildings with natural lighting
and ventilation features
o % energy use reduction
kWh/therms Mid-term

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
5-8
TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
J - New construction residential and
commercial solar water heater/heat pump
installation & retrofit of existing residential
2035: 2,813
Install solar water heaters or heat pumps
on all new residential and commercial
construction. Retrofit up to 30 percent of
existing homes and commercial buildings
to include solar water heaters or heat
pumps

J-1: Promote residential solar water
heaters and heat pump retrofit incentive,
rebate and financing programs
Public Works,
Communications
o Promotional activities conducted
o Solar heater/heat pump installations kWh/therms Short-term J-2: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.30, Sections 18.30.150 and

18.30.170, mandating alternative water
heating requirements in new residential
and non-residential buildings.

Community
Development o Solar heater/heat pump installations
o MW installed PV kWh/therms Ongoing
K - Promote transportation demand
management strategies 2035: 6,325
Promote Transportation Demand
Management Strategies with a goal of
achieving a 10 percent increase in
alternative mode use by workers in
Carlsbad, for a total of 32 percent
alternative mode use

K-1: Implement citywide
transportation demand management
(TDM) plan
Community
Development,
Public Works

o TDM plan adopted
o TDM participation rates
o % VMT reduced
VMT Short-term

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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators

K-2: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.51, mandating TDM
improvements and strategies for non-
residential development.

Community
Development,
Public Works
o TDM participation rates
o % VMT reduced VMT Ongoing
L - Promote an increase in the amount of
zero-emissions vehicle travel 2035: 56,207
Promote an increase in the amount of
ZEV miles traveled from a projected 15
percent to 25 percent of total vehicle
miles traveled by 2035

L-1: Construct a “PV to EV” pilot
project
Public Works,
Community
Development
o kW installed PV
o Number of ZEV charging units
VMT
kWh Short-term
L-2: Prepare a community-wide
charging station siting plan
Public Works,
Community
Development
o Siting Plan prepared Short-term

L-3: Construct ZEV charging
stations based on the community-wide
charging station siting plan
Public Works o Number of charging stations installed
o kWh charging sessions VMT Mid-term
L-4: Offer dedicated ZEV parking
and charging stations
Public Works,
Community
Development

o Number of installed ZEV parking
spaces/charging stations
o kWh charging sessions
VMT Mid-term
L-5: Adopt requirements for ZEV
parking for new developments.

Community
Development
o Number of installed ZEV parking
spaces/charging stations
o kWh charging sessions
VMT Short-term

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators

L-6: Implement and enforce Title 18,
Chapter 18.21, Sections 18.21.140 and

18.21.150, mandating electric vehicle
charging infrastructure in new residential
and non-residential building and existing
residential and non-residential buildings
undergoing major renovations.

Community
Development o Number of EV chargers installed VMT Ongoing

L-7: Increase the proportion of city
fleet low and zero–emissions vehicle
miles traveled to 25 percent of all city-
related VMT
Public Works o % LEV and ZEV fleet VMT VMT Short-term
M - Develop more citywide renewable
energy projects 2035: 2,774
Produce the equivalent amount of energy
to power 2,000 homes (roughly equivalent
to a 5 percent reduction) by 2035 from
renewable energy projects

M-1: Conduct a feasibility study to
evaluate citywide renewable energy
projects and prioritize accordingly.

Public Works o Feasibility study conducted Short-term

M-2: Incorporate renewable energy
measures such as PV system installation
on city buildings and parking lots, or
microturbine installation on city facilities
Public Works o MW installed renewable energy
systems MWh Mid to Long-term

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TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
M-3: Pursue available funding
sources for the construction of municipal
renewable energy projects
Public Works o Number of EEFP or SGIP-funded
projects MWh Mid to Long-term
N - Reduce the GHG intensity of water
supply conveyance, treatment and
distribution

2035: 713
Reduce the intensity of GHG emissions
from water utilities (including water
supply, wastewater, and recycled water)
conveyance, treatment, and distribution
by 8 percent by 2035

N-1: Improve water utilities
(including water supply, wastewater, and
recycled water) conveyance, treatment
and distribution, and other system
improvements.

Public Works,
Carlsbad Municipal
Water District

o Number of water system improvement
projects
o % energy use reduction
kWh Mid to Long-term
O - Encourage the installation of greywater
and rainwater systems 2035: 137
Encourage the installation of greywater
and rainwater collection systems with a
goal of 15 percent of homes by 2035

O-1: Conduct greywater and
rainwater collection systems workshops
Carlsbad Municipal
Water District,
Communications
o Number of workshops conducted
o % water use reduction
Gallons of
water Mid-term

O-2: Create a greywater design
reference manual
Community
Development,
Carlsbad Municipal
Water District
o Reference manual created
o % water use reduction
Gallons of
water Mid-term

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
5-12
TABLE 5-1: CAP IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX
Measure / Actions Responsible
Department(s)
Annual GHG
Reduction
Goals
(MTCO2e)
Performance Target
Unit of
Measure
Implementation
Timeframe
o Progress Indicators
O-3: Evaluate the feasibility of
offering a rebate for residential
greywater systems that require a permit
to cover the cost of obtaining a permit.

Carlsbad Municipal
Water District
o Feasibility study conducted
o Number of permit rebates issued
o % water use reduction
Gallons of
water Mid-term

P – Clean Electricity 2035: 56,207
Achieve 100% renewable electricity
by 2030 for 95% of the residential
bundled load and 85% commercial +
industrial bundled load.

P-1: Continue participation in Clean
Energy Alliance Community Choice
Energy program
City Manager o Continued participation N/A Ongoing
P-2: Explore the purchase of
renewable energy credits if Community
Choice Energy program is not reaching
2035 reduction target
Public Works
Finance

o CCE participation rates and percentage
of customers at 100% renewable
energy.
kWh Ongoing

CARLSBAD CLIMATE ACTION PLAN
5-13

5.2 Monitoring and Reporting
This CAP serves as a toolkit for the City of Carlsbad to reduce community -wide GHG emissions and meet emissions targets. Climate action planning, however, is an iterative and adaptive management process: it requires administration, public outreach, monitoring progress and measuring results , periodically revisiting assumptions and adjusting provisions when necessary. Through regular monitoring and measuring the performance of CAP activities, the city will learn what is working and what is not. This will enable the city to make timely adjustments to existing measures, replace ineffective actions, and/or add new measures as changes in technology, federal and state programs, or other circumstances warrant.

Figure 5-1 shows the steps in the process of climate action planning.

Figure 5-1: Process of Climate Action Planning
To continue
the process of climate action
planning, the City of
Carlsbad will follow these
steps:
• Administration
• Education and
Outreach
• Monitoring and
Reporting
• Updating GHG
inventory and the CAP
• Update Project Review
Checklist
Administration
Following adoption of this CAP, the city will designate a CAP administrator and form an interdisciplinary CAP implementation team from within the city organization. The administrator, in conjunction with the implementation team, will be responsible for initial program start-up activities and for overseeing implementation, monitoring and reporting of all actions described in the CAP. The composition of the implementation team may vary from time to time as needed, but it is expected that core members will include staff from Public Inventory GHG
Emissions
Set Reduction
Targets
Update GHG
Inventory
Develop
(Update)
Climate Action
Plan
Implement
Measures
Measure
Effectiveness
Report
Progress

5: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND REPORTING
5-14
Works, Community and Economic Development, Finance, and Communications departments.

As some of the monitoring and reporting activities will require coordination with other agencies, the implementation team will need to foster effective partnerships accordingly.

Operating resources for administering the CAP will be provided through the city’s annual budget process. To maximize efficiency and maintain costs, the city will integrate CAP implementation activities into existing workloads and programs whenever possible. Potential private and public funding resources for individual GHG reduction measures are identified in the measure descriptions in Chapter 4. However, since program incentives and funding sources change over time, the CAP administrator and Implementation Team will need to keep current on available resources as GHG reduction measures are implemented.

Education and Outreach
A program of this scope and consequence will require substantial community support in order to succeed. Key to garnering this support is to raise the level of community awareness through education and outreach. Most of the individual GHG reduction measures in Chapter 4 include a promotion and education component. Appendix A provides a listing of internet resources on a variety of climate change-related topics. In addition to these features built into the CAP, the city will utilize its website, social media, and other communications channels to provide information about climate change science and anticipated impacts, and by providing residents and businesses with information and resources to help t hem take action. The city’s website already has a good deal of information related to energy and water efficiency programs, and other environmental sustainability efforts. This Climate Action Plan is also available on the city’s website. The city will build upon this base of resources by providing current information and links to various local, state and federal incentive programs to reduce one’s carbon footprint, and provide assistance to homeowners, businesses, and contractors seeking to make energy efficiency improvements.

Monitoring and Reporting
The City of Carlsbad will annually monitor and report on CAP implementation activities. The annual monitoring report will include implementation status of each action and progress towards achieving the performance targets of the corresponding emissions reduction measure.

The annual monitoring report will also include information on the status of the federal and state level emissions reductions measures identified in Chapter 3 of this CAP, as well as any new efforts that may emerge in the reporting year. The annual report will be presented to the City Council at a public meeting during which interested parties may comment on the report.

Updating GHG Inventory and the CAP
The city will update the community and government operations inventories for calendar year 2014 for inclusion in the first annual report, and then will update the inventories every three years thereafter . For continuity, the inventory updates will tally emissions from the same sectors analyzed in Chapter 2 of this CAP. If an updated inventory reveals that the plan is not making adequate progress toward meeting the GHG target , or that new technologies and programs emerge that warrant inclusion in the CAP, the city will adjust the CAP by modifying, adding, and/or replacing measures as necessary. New opportunities for GHG reductions,

CARLSBAD CLIMATE ACTION PLAN
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including new funding sources and the ability to link city reduction actions to the city’s Capital Improvement Plan, Infrastructure Replacement and Fleet Vehicle Replacement schedules, and other programs can also be incorporated into future updates of the CAP. Interim “milestone” targets for years 2025 and 2030 as shown in Table 4 -3 will be used to gauge whether the city is making adequate progress toward meeting t he 2035 target. Recommendations to adjust the CAP may be presented to the City Council as part of the annual report or at any other time throughout the year as necessary to ensure effective CAP implementation.

5.3 Project Review Thresholds and Checklist
Compliance with CAP
During the course of project review, city will evaluate whether a project is subject to provisions of this CAP, using the screening criteria below. Once this is established, a project shall comply with the CAP in one of two ways:
• Checklist Approach. The Project Review Checklist below provides direction about measures to be incorporated in individual projects, which will be used during the normal development review process. Project features that help a project meet the provisions of the CAP shall then become part of project conditions of approval. • Self-Developed Program Approach. Rather than use the standard checklist, project proponents can develop their own program that would result in the same outcome as the checklist. Appendix E provides a non-exclusive list of potential mitigation measures that can be applied at the project level to reduce project-level greenhouse gas emissions.

Other measures not listed in the Appendix may be considered, provided that their effectiveness in reducing gree nhouse gas emissions can be demonstrated. The self - developed program approach and selection of mitigation measures shall be subject to city review and approval.

CEQA Streamlining
Project Screening Thresholds
The California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA) public various screening thresholds to guide lead agencies in determining which projects require greenhouse gas analysis and mitigation for significant impacts related to climate change. Utilizing this guidance, the City has determined that new development projects emitting less than 900 MTCO2e annual GHG would not contribute considerably to cumulative climate change impacts, and therefore do not need to demonstrate consistency with the CAP.

The city prepared a "Climate Action Plan Consistency Checklist” and “Guidance
to Demonstrating Consistency with the Climate Action Plan For Discretionary Projects Subject to CEQA," which lists the types and sizes of projects that correspond to the 900 MTCO2e screening threshold. The documents were revised to reflect adoption of CAP ordinances. For proposed projects above the screening threshold, project proponents shall complete the Checklist.

Appendix A
Climate Change
Informational Resources
Combating climate change requires education and personal action. This section contains resources on climate change and its impacts, calculating individual carbon footprints, and ways to reduce individual carbon footprint s.

Education
The evidence is clear that climate change is happening . H umans are largely responsible fo r recent climate change. International scientific bodies, f ederal agencies , and state agencies have numerous resources that summarize the current scientific understanding of climate change and the latest projections of climate change impacts.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading international body for the assessment of climate c hange:
• http://www.ipcc.ch/
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has documented recent impacts and future trends of climate change:
• http://climate.nasa .gov/effects
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has information of climate change, and it’s effects:
• https://www.epa.gov/climate-research
Cal-Adapt, a product of the Public In terest Energy Research (PIER) program, funded by the California Energy Commission, provides California -specific climate change research, including interactive climate tools :
• http://cal-adapt.org/
Carbon Footprint
A carbon footprint is a measure of the total amount of GHG emissions produced by an individual. It can be thought of as a personal inventory of one’s impacts on climate change.

APPENDIX A: CLIMATE CHANGE INFORMATIONAL RESOURCES
A-2
There are a number of online calculators that estimate personal carbon footprin ts.

Individuals can use the following carbon footprint calculators as a guide to help reduce personal carbon emissions.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
• https://www3.epa.gov/carbon-footprint-calculator/
Cool California
• http://www.coolcalifornia.org/calculator
Cool Climate Network
• http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/carboncalculator
Nature Conservancy
• http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalcula tor/index.htm Conservation International
• http://www.conservation.org/act/live_green/carboncalc/Pages/default.aspx Carbon Footprint
• http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator1.html
Global Footprint Network
• http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/gfn/page/calculators/ Reducing your Carbon Footprint
Reducing one’s personal carbon footprint saves money, decreases impact on the environment, and helps fight climate change. The following links provide resources on changes
one can make in his or her day-t o -day life to diminish GHG emissions.

Carbon Footprint
• https://www.carbonfootprint.com/minimisecfp.html

CARLSBAD CLIMATE ACT ION PLAN
A-3
COTAP.org
• https://cotap.org/reduce-carbon-footprint/
Cool California: What can you do at home?
• https://coolcalifornia.arb.ca.gov/household
• https://coolcalifornia.arb.ca.gov/small-business
Cool California: What can schools do?
• https://coolcalifornia.arb.ca.gov/schools
Cool California: What can sm all businesses do?
Appendix B-1
2012, 2014 and 2016 City of
Carlsbad Greenhouse Gas
Inventories

City of Carlsbad Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories and Projection

April 2020

Prepared for the City of Carlsbad

Prepared by the Energy Policy Initiatives Center

About EPIC

The Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) is a non-profit research center of the USD School of Law that studies energy policy issues affecting California and the San Diego region. EPIC’s mission is to increase awareness and understanding of energy- and climate-related policy issues by conducting research and analysis to inform decision makers and educating law students.

For more information, please visit the EPIC website at www.sandiego.edu/epic.

The Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) prepared this report for the City of Carlsbad. This report represents EPIC’s professional judgment based on the data and information available at the time EPIC prepared this report.

EPIC relies on data and information from third parties who provide it with no guarantees such as of completeness, accuracy or timeliness. EPIC makes no representations or warranties, whether expressed or implied, and assumes no legal liability for the use of the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. Readers of the report are advised that EPIC may periodically update this report or data, information, findings, and opinio ns and that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a result of their reliance on the report, data, information, findings and opinions contained in the report.

Table of Contents
City of Carlsbad Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories and Projection ...................................1 1 Overview 1

1.1 Rounding of Values in Tables and Figures ............................................................................ 1 2 Background ...................................................................................................................1

2.1 Greenhouse Gases ................................................................................................................. 1

2.2 Categories of Emissions ......................................................................................................... 1

2.3 Demographics ........................................................................................................................ 2 3 Summary of GHG Emissions Inventory ............................................................................2 4 Methods to Calculate GHG Emissions Inventory ..............................................................4

4.1 On-Road Transportation ........................................................................................................ 4

4.2 Electricity ................................................................................................................................ 7

4.3 Natural Gas .......................................................................................................................... 10

4.4 Solid Waste .......................................................................................................................... 11

4.5 Off-Road Transportation ...................................................................................................... 12

4.6 Water .................................................................................................................................... 13

4.7 Wastewater .......................................................................................................................... 16 5 Business-as-usual (BAU) GHG Emissions Projections ..................................................... 17

5.1 Emissions Projections for 2035 ............................................................................................ 18

5.2 Methods to Project GHG Emissions ...................................................................................... 19

5.2.1 On-road Transportation ...................................................................................................................... 19

5.2.2 Electricity ................................................................................................................................................ 20

5.2.3 Natural Gas .......................................................................................................................................... 21

5.2.4 Solid Waste .......................................................................................................................................... 21

5.2.5 Off-Road Transportation .................................................................................................................... 22

5.2.6 Water ..................................................................................................................................................... 22

5.2.7 Wastewater .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix A. Carlsbad VMT by Trip Type .............................................................................1 Appendix B. Source Data For the Solid Waste Emission Factor ............................................1

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1 Overview
This document presents a summary of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the City of Carlsbad (referred to as Carlsbad or the City) for 2012, 2014, and 2016, and the business-as-usual (BAU) emissions projections for 2035. This BAU projection demonstrates emissions growth in the absence of any new policies and programs and does not consider future impacts of adopted federal and State policies. GHG reductions from these policies are considered later in the climate action planning process and are referred to as the “legislatively-adjusted BAU”.

Section 2 provides background sources and common assumptions used to estimate GHG emissions and projections. Section 3 provides the GHG emissions for 2012, 2014, and 2016. Details on the methods used to estimate emissions in each category are provided in Section 4. Section 5 provides a summary of the emissions projections and the methods used to project future year emissions.

1.1 Rounding of Values in Tables and Figures
Rounding is used only for the final GHG values within the tables and figures throughout the document.

Values for activity data and emission factors are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Because of rounding, some totals may not equal the summed values in tables or figures. 2 Background

2.1 Greenhouse Gases
The primary GHGs included in the emissions estimates presented here are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Each GHG has a different capacity to trap heat in the atmosphere, known as its global warming potential (GWP), which is normalized relative to CO2 and expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e). In general, the 100-year GWPs reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to estimate GHG emissions. The GWPs used in this inventory are from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4),1 provided in Table 1.

Table 1 Global Warming Potentials Used in the Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventory and Projections Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1
Methane (CH4) 25
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298
IPCC 2013.

2.2 Categories of Emissions
The U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (U.S.

Community Protocol), published by ICLEI USA, requires a minimum of five basic emissions-generating activities to be included in a Protocol-compliant community-scale GHG inventory. These categories are:

1 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Direct Global Warming Potentials (2013).

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electricity, natural gas, on-road transportation, water and wastewater, and solid waste.2 GHG emissions are calculated by multiplying activity data (e.g., kilowatt-hours of electricity, tons of solid waste) by an emission factor (e.g., pounds of CO2e per unit of electricity). For these five categories, methods used in this inventory were based on the U.S. Community Protocol standard methods and modified with regional- or City-specific data when available. GHG emissions results are based on the best available data and methods for each category and are considered the best available estimates.

Additionally, GHG emissions from off-road transportation were included in the inventory and projections, based on the methods and models used by California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the statewide GHG emission inventory.3

All activity data and GHG emissions reported in this document are annual values, and all emission factors reported in this document are annual average values, unless stated otherwise.

2.3 Demographics
The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) estimates and forecasts population and employment for all jurisdictions in the San Diego region. The population and jobs estimate for 2012, 2014, and 2016 are provided in Table 2.4
Table 2 Population and Jobs Estimates (Carlsbad 2012, 2014, and 2016) Year Population Jobs
2012 107,929 66,279
2014 110,972 71,060
2016 112,003 75,840
SANDAG 2013, 2019. Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020. 3 Summary of GHG Emissions Inventory
The total and breakdown of GHG emissions from Carlsbad in 2012, 2014, and 2016 are shown in Figure 1 and Table 3.

2 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability USA: U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Version 1.0 (2012).
3 California Air Resources Board (CARB): Mobile Source Emissions Inventory – Modeling Tools. 4 2012, 2014, and 2016 population are from SANDAG’s Demographic & Socio-Economic Estimates (May 25, 2019 Version).

SANDAG Data Surfer, accessed March 3, 2020. Jobs in 2012 are from SANDAG Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast (Updated in October 2013), SANDAG Data Surfer, accessed on November 15, 2017. Jobs in 2016 are from SANDAG 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Appendix J: Regional Growth Forecast (October 2019), accessed March 10, 2020. Jobs in 2014 are linearly interpolated between 2012 and 2016.

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Figure 1 Distribution of GHG Emissions in Carlsbad (2012, 2014, and 2016) Table 3 Total and Breakdown of GHG Emissions in Carlsbad (2012, 2014, and 2016) Emissions Category
2012
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2014
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2016
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
On-Road Transportation* 488,000 470,000 470,000
Electricity 301,000 258,000 266,000
Natural Gas 134,000 127,000 133,000
Solid Waste 25,000 15,000 16,000
Off-Road Transportation 14,000 32,000 35,000
Water 12,000 13,000 8,000
Wastewater 3,000 3,000 3,000
Total 977,000 917,000 930,000
Sums may not add up to totals due to rounding.

GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.
*2012 and 2014 emissions are based on SANDAG Series 13 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimates. 2012 is the Series 13 base year. 2016 emissions are based on SANDAG Series 14 VMT estimates. 2016 is the Series 14 base year.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

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The on-road transportation category contributed the most to the overall GHG emissions in all three inventory years, ranging from 50% to 51%, while the wastewater category contributed the least (<1%) in all three inventory years.
4 Methods to Calculate GHG Emissions Inventory

4.1 On- Road Transportation
The emissions associated with on-road transportation in Carlsbad were estimated based on the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and the average vehicle emission rate in the San Diego region in a given year. VMT data were provided by SANDAG based on its activity-based model (ABM)5 and the Origin-Destination (O- D) method.6 The O-D VMT method is the preferred method proposed by the U.S Community Protocol (TR.1 Emissions from Passenger Vehicles and TR.2 Emissions from Freight and Service Trucks) that estimates miles traveled based on where a trip originates and where it ends to better attribute on-road emissions to cities and regions of miles traveled (Figure 2).7 The O-D method is also the preferred method used across the San Diego region for consistency across jurisdictions.

Figure 2 Components of O-D Method for VMT Calculation
O-D VMT data include miles from all trips that originate and end within Carlsbad City limits, referred to as Internal-Internal (I-I), and half of miles from trips that either begin within the boundary and end outside the boundary (referred to as Internal-External, I-E), or vice versa (referred to as External- Internal, E-I). Miles from trips that begin and end outside Carlsbad that only pass through are referred to as External-External (E-E). The average weekday O-D VMT estimates for each trip type in 2012 and 2014

5 SANDAG (2015): San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan. Appendix T Travel Demand Model Documentation. 6 SANDAG (2013): Vehicle Miles Traveled Calculation Using the SANDAG Regional Travel Demand Model. Technical White Paper. 7 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability USA. U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Version 1.0. (2012). Appendix D: Transportation and Other Mobile Emission Activities and Sources.

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were from SANDAG Series 13 estimates; the average weekday O-D VMT estimates for each trip type in 2016 were from SANDAG Series 14 estimates. All are shown in Table 4.8 Table 4 O-D VMT and Trip Types (Carlsbad, 2012 and 2014) Year
Internal-Internal
Trips
(Miles/Average
Weekday)
External-
Internal/Internal-
External Trips
(Miles/Average
Weekday)
2012* 563,200 5,015,980
2014* 562,105 5,070,209
2016** 595,962 5,220,336
*Based on SANDAG Series 13 VMT estimates. 2012 is the Series 13 Base Year. **Based on SANDAG Series 14 VMT estimates. 2016 is the Series 14 Base Year.

SANDAG 2017, 2019. Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

The Internal-External and External-Internal miles are divided in half to allocate the miles between Carlsbad and all other outside jurisdictions. The total VMT is multiplied by 347 to adjust from average weekday VMT to average annual VMT which includes weekends.9

The average vehicle emission rates expressed in grams of CO 2e per mile driven (g CO2e/mile) were
derived from the statewide mobile source emissions model EMFAC2017, developed by CARB.

EMFAC2017 was used to generate CO2, CH4 and N2O emission rates for the San Diego region for all vehicle classes, model years, speeds, and fuel types.10 The average emission rates were calculated based on the VMT distribution of each vehicle class and its emission rate. The average CO2, CH4 and N2O vehicle emission rates were converted to CO2e emission rates based on the GWPs in Table 1.

The total VMT, average vehicle emission rates, and corresponding GHG emissions estimates from the on-road transportation category from 2012, 2014, and 2016 are given in Table 5.

8 Series 13 2012, 2014, 2020 and 2035 average weekday VMT were provided by SANDAG (July 2017). ABM Release 13.3.0.

Series 14 2016 average weekday VMT were provided by SANDAG (September 2019). ABM Release 14.0.1. 9 The conversion of 347 weekdays to 365 days per year as used by CARB. CARB: California’s 2000-2014 Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Technical Support Document (2016 Edition), p. 41 (September 2016). 10 CARB: EMFAC2017 Web Database. Emission Rates for SANDAG. Accessed on February 3, 2020. The vehicle classes in EMFAC201y are the same as the vehicle classes in the previous version of the model, EMFAC2014.

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Table 5 VMT, Emission Rate and GHG Emissions from On-road Transportation Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016)
Year
Average
Vehicle
Emission Rate
(g CO2e/mile)
Total VMT
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e) Average
Weekday Miles*
Average Annual
Miles
2012 458 3,071,190 1,065,702,915 488,000
2014 437 3,097,209 1,074,731,692 470,000
2016 422 3,206,130 1,112,527,064 470,000
*Consistent with the methodology, this is the sum of internal-internal and half of both external- internal and internal-external VMT from Table 4. Weekday miles are converted to annual average before converting to GHG emissions.
2012 and 2014 VMT are from SANDAG Series 13 VMT estimates. 2012 is the Series 13 Base Year. 2016 VMT is from SANDAG Series 14 VMT estimates. 2016 is the Series 14 Base Year.

GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

CARB 2018. SANDAG 2017, 2019. Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

The average vehicle emission rate in 2014 was lower compared than that in 2012, resulting in lower emissions in 2014 that might be attributed to higher vehicle emission standards for new vehicles and the vehicle fleet turnover rate in the San Diego region. The average vehicle emission rate in 2016 was lower than that in 2014, however, the VMT in 2016 was 4% higher than 2014, resulting in 2016 emissions approximately the same level as the 2014 emissions.

Figure 3 gives the breakdown of emissions by vehicle class in 2012, based on the EMFAC vehicle class distribution in the San Diego region, assuming Carlsbad has the same distribution of vehicle types as the region. Passenger cars contribute the most to emissions with 39%, while motorcycles contribute the least with 0.4%.
11 The breakdown of emissions by vehicle class in 2014 and 2016 are similar to that in 2012.

11 In California’s EMFAC2017, passenger cars are all cars and fuel types designated as Light Duty Automobiles (LDAs). Light Duty Trucks (LDTs) are classified as LDT1 and LDT2, where LDT1 includes gas, diesel, and electric fuel vehicles, while LDT2 does not include electric vehicles. Medium-duty trucks included medium duty vehicles (MDV with Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) 5751-8,500 lbs), and heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), with GVWR larger than 8,500 lbs. Under the EPA Emission Standard, vehicles with GVWR under 8,500 lbs are considered light-duty trucks/vehicles Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

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Figure 3 On-Road Transportation Emissions by Vehicle Class in the San Diego Region (2012)

4.2 Electricity
Emissions from electricity use in Carlsbad were estimated using the Built Environment (BE.2) method from the U.S Community Protocol.12 Annual metered electricity sales by the local utility, San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) to Carlsbad customers13 were adjusted by: 1) a loss factor14 of 1.0715 to account for transmission and distribution losses; and 2) subtracting electricity use associated with the distribution of water to avoid double-counting emissions from the water-energy category.

The basic method to calculate GHG emissions is to multiply the adjusted net energy for load (electricity sales + losses) by the corresponding City-specific electricity emission factor, expressed in pounds of CO2e per megawatt-hour (lbs CO2e/MWh). For a given year, the City-specific electricity emission factor is developed based on the specific power mix of bundled power16 and Direct Access power17 (MWh), and their respective emission factors (lbs CO2e/MWh). The SDG&E bundled emission factors are calculated

12 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability USA: U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Version 1.0 (2012), Appendix C: Built Environment Emission Activities and Sources. 13 2012, 2014 and 2016 metered electricity sales were provided by SDG&E (May 11, 2017). 14 The transmission and distribution loss factor is used to scale end-use demand or retail sales to produce net energy for load. L.

Wong, A Review of Transmission Losses In Planning Studies, CEC Staff Paper (August 2011). 15 California Energy Commission (CEC): California Energy Demand 2015–2025 Final Forecast Mid-Case Final Baseline Demand Forecast Forms, SDG&E Mid. The transmission and distribution loss factor is calculated based on the ratio of net energy for load (total sales + net losses) and total sales from SDG&E Form 1.2 Mid. 16 SDG&E bundled power includes the electricity from SDG&E-owned power plants and the electricity from its net procurements.
17 Direct Access refers to electricity that customers purchase from non-SDG&E electric service providers (ESPs), but SDG&E still provides transmission and distribution services. See SDG&E Direct Access Program.

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using Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 118 data, the California Energy Commission (CEC) Power Source Disclosure Program19 data on SDG&E-owned and purchased power, and U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s Emissions and Generating Resource Integrated Database (eGRID)20 on specific power plant emissions. The DA emission factor is taken from the California Public Utilities Commission Decision D.14-12-037.21 The City-specific emission factor are provided in Table 6.

The differences in the electricity emission factors over the years reflect the change in the electricity power mix in the City and in SDG&E’s service territory from 2012 to 2014. In the later years, more renewable resources were included in the power mix that have resulted in the decrease of the electricity emission factors. SDG&E had 32% and 43% renewable sources in the electricity supplied to its bundled customers in 2012 and 2014, respectively, increased from 19% renewable sources in 2012.22

The net energy for Carlsbad’s load (electricity sales + losses), electricity emission factors, and corresponding GHG emissions from the electricity category for the years 2012 and 2014 are given in Table 6.
23 Table 6 Net Energy for Load, Emission Factor and GHG Emissions from Electricity Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016)
Year
Net Energy for
Load (electricity
sales + losses)
(MWh)
City-Specific
Emission Factor
(lbs CO2e/MWh)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2012 875,907 756 301,000
2014 889,039 639 258,000
2016 1,075,609 545 266,000
GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

SDG&E 2017, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

The GHG emission factor and emissions from the electricity category decreased from 2012 to 2014 most likely due to the increase of renewable content in the electricity supply. The net energy for load in 2016 is 21% higher than that in 2014. One of the reasons for the increase in net energy for load is likely due to the electricity use at the Carlsbad Desalination Plant for potable water treatment. The Carlsbad Desalination Plant treats water for the San Diego County Water Authority, which is the water wholesaler in the San Diego region. Based on the Plant’s Energy Minimization and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan, the high energy efficiency plant design will lead to 4,398 kWh per acre-foot (AF) of water treatment

18 FERC: Form 1 – Electric Utility Annual Report: Report Year 2018, updated July 9, 2019, and accessed September 18, 2019. 19 CEC: Power Source Disclosure Program under Senate Bill 1305. The SDG&E annual power source disclosure reports from 2012 to 2016 were provided by CEC staff to EPIC.
20 U.S. EPA. eGRID 2016 Edition, released February 15, 2018, accessed June 29, 2018. 21 CPUC: Decision 14-12-037, December 18, 2014 in Rulemaking 11-03-012 (filed March 24, 2011). The recommended emission factor is 0.379 MT CO2e/MWh (836 lbs CO2e/MWh). However, the recommended emission factor has not changed since 2014 while the all electric service suppliers must meet the Renewables Portfolio Standards in the target years. 22 California Energy Commission: Utility annual power content label. 23 The total electricity use was modified to avoid double-counting the electricity consumption associated with water distribution within the community boundary, which is addressed in the water category.

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energy intensity.24 In 2016, the Plant treated approximately 40,000 AF of water, which resulted in approximately 177,000 MWh electricity use.25

The emissions can be further separated into residential and non-residential classes. In 2012, 66% of estimated emissions were attributed to non-residential electricity use and the remaining 34% to residential electricity use, as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 Electricity Emissions by Customer Class (Carlsbad, 2012)

The net energy for load does not include self-serve renewable supply from behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems or self-serve non-renewable supply. The behind-the-meter PV systems in Carlsbad increased significantly from 2012 to 2016. The number and capacity of newly added PV systems in each of the inventory years, and the total capacity at the end of each inventory year are shown in Table 7.26 Electricity generation from behind-the-meter PV systems are assumed to have no associated GHG emissions.

24 Carlsbad Seawater Desalination Project: Energy Minimization and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan (2008). Accessed September 2019.
25 2016 monthly water production from the Carlsbad Desalination Plant to the SDCWA was provided by SDCWA to EPIC (November 2018).
26 NEM Interconnection Data Set (current as of November 31, 2019), accessed March 5, 2020. Based on date of NEM interconnection application approved. System capacities are in direct current (DC). Estimated electricity generation is converted from capacity using an average solar PV system capacity factor of 20% and system degradation rate of 1% annually.

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Table 7 Behind-the-meter PV System and Electricity Generation (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016) Year
New PV Systems Cumulative PV Systems
since 2000
Estimated Behind-
the-meter Solar
Generation
(MWh)
Number of
Systems
Capacity
(MWdc)
Number of
Systems
Capacity
(MWdc)
2012 116 0.7 541 3.7 6,512
2014 596 4.1 1,528 9.8 17,227
2016 1,133 8.6 3,742 26 45,553
California Distributed Generation Statistics 2019, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

4.3 Natural Gas
Emissions from natural gas end-use in Carlsbad were estimated using method Built Environment (BE.1) from the U.S Community Protocol.27 Annual metered natural gas sales were provided by SDG&E.28 The natural gas use was adjusted to exclude the electricity generation fuel use at the Encina Power Station.29 To estimate emissions from the combustion of natural gas, fuel use was multiplied by an emission factor for natural gas based on data from CARB.30 The natural gas use and corresponding GHG emissions from the natural gas category are given in Table 8.

Table 8 Natural Gas Use and GHG Emissions from Natural Gas Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016) Year Natural Gas Use
(million therms)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2012 24.4 134,000
2014 23.2 127,000
2016 24.3 133,000
GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

SDG&E 2017, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

Emissions from the natural gas category can be broken down further into residential and non- residential. In 2012, an estimated 62% of emissions resulted from residential natural gas use and 38% resulted from non-residential natural gas use, as shown in Figure 5.

27 ICLEI– Local Governments for Sustainability USA. U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Version 1.0. (2012). Appendix C: Built Environment Emission Activities and Sources. 28 2012, 2014 and 2016 metered natural gas sales were provided by SDG&E (May 11, 2017). 29 The emissions from electricity generation fuel use at Encina Power Station occur within the City boundary, however, the emissions were accounted for in calculating the electricity emission factors. Natural gas use at Encina Power Station from 2012 to 2016 and emissions are reported in the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. 30 Emission factor for natural gas: 0.0554 MMT CO2e/MM therms. California Air Resources Board. Documentation of California’s GHG Inventory – Index.

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Figure 5 Natural Gas Emissions by Customer Class (Carlsbad, 2012)

4.4 Solid Waste
Emissions from solid waste disposed by Carlsbad were estimated using method Solid Waste (SW.4) from the U.S. Community Protocol.31 To estimate emissions, the amount of waste disposed by a city in a given year is multiplied by an emission factor for mixed solid waste. Solid waste disposal data were retrieved from the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) Disposal Reporting System (DRS).32

The emission factor of mixed solid waste depends on the percentage of each waste type within the waste stream disposed in a landfill. The closest city to Carlsbad with a recent waste characterization study is the City of Oceanside, therefore this was used as a substitute for Carlsbad to determine the emission factor based on the percentage of each waste type within the mixed solid waste. This emission factor was applied to 2012, 2014, and 2016 waste disposal for the emission calculation.33 Only the CH4 emissions from waste degradation, which are considered non-biogenic, are included in this category.

The CO2 emissions from waste degradation are considered biogenic and not included in this category.

The default capture rate of CH4 emissions from landfills is 75% based on the U.S. Community Protocol and it is the rest that comprises emissions from the solid waste category. The total and per-capita solid waste disposal and the corresponding GHG emissions from solid waste disposal are given in Table 9. The waste disposal and GHG emissions from waste in 2016 are 40% higher than in 2012.

31 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability USA. U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Version 1.0. (2012). Appendix E. Solid Waste Emission Activities and Sources. 32 CalRecycle Disposal Reporting System (DRS): Jurisdiction Disposal and Alternative Daily Cover (ADC) Tons by Facility. 2012, 2014 and 2016 solid waste disposal data from CalRecycle were confirmed by City staff. Download date: June 16, 2017. 33 City of Oceanside 2017 Organic Management Detailed waste characterization study results were provided by Carlsbad city staff. The emission factor, 0.98 MT CO2e/short ton was calculated based on waste distribution and emission factor for each waste type in Version 13 Waste Reduction Model (WARM).

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Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 12
Table 9 Solid Waste Disposal and GHG Emissions from Solid Waste Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014 and 2016) Year
Solid Waste
Disposal
(metric tons/year)
Per Capita Solid
Waste Disposal
(kg/person/day)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2012 102,220 2.6 25,000
2014 130,821 3.2 32,000
2016 143,557 3.5 35,000
GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

CalReycle 2017, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

4.5 Off -Road Transportation
The emissions from off-road transportation in Carlsbad such as gasoline and diesel fuel use for off-road vehicles and equipment, were estimated based on CARB off-road models. OFFROAD2007 is the main model for estimating off-road transportation emissions. After the release of OFFROAD2007, CARB has been developing inventories and models for each sub-category based on specific regulatory requirements. For example, the recreational equipment category in OFFROAD2007 was replaced by RV2013. In this section, new inventories and models were used if available; otherwise, OFFROAD2007 was used. 34

Due to the lack of jurisdiction-specific data from CARB models, the emissions or fuel consumption from the CARB model outputs for the San Diego region were scaled to the City based on sub-category-specific scaling factors. The off-road activity sub-categories that are relevant to Carlsbad and the scaling factors are given in Table 10.35 The sub-categories do not include all sub-categories identified in CARB off-road models, they are the off-road sub-categories included in the 2015 Carlsbad Climate Action Plan.36 Table 10 Sub-Categories included in the Carlsbad Off-Road Transportation Categories Sub-Category Model Source Common Equipment Type Scaling Factor Lawn and Garden
Equipment CARB OFFROAD2007 Lawn mowers, trimmers, brush cutters, chainsaws, leaf blowers/ vacuums Population
Light Commercial
Equipment CARB OFFROAD2007 Generator set, pumps, welders Commercial Jobs Construction and
Mining
CARB In-Use Off-Road
Equipment 2011 Inventory
Excavators, off-highway tractors,
loaders, paving equipment Construction Jobs
Industrial CARB In-Use Off-Road
Equipment 2011 Inventory
Aerial lifts, forklifts,
sweepers/scrubbers Industrial Jobs
Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

In the In-Use Off-Road Equipment 2011 Inventory, the fuel consumptions for the equipment in the San Diego region were reported in gallons per year and converted to annual GHG emissions. For other sub- categories, the OFFROAD2007 model outputs are annual emissions for the San Diego region. The scaling

34 CARB: Mobile Source Emissions inventory – Off-Road Diesel Vehicles. 35 The sub-categories listed in this table are not the comprehensive off-road mobile sources listed in CARB, as some of the sub- categories are not relevant to Carlsbad, such as airport ground support, pleasure craft, commercial marine vessels, etc. 36 Carlsbad: Climate Action Plan (2015). Table 2-2: 2011 Community GHG Emissions.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 13
factors and the corresponding GHG emissions from the off-road transportation category are given in Table 11.37
Table 11 GHG Emissions from the Off-road Transportation Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016) Sub-Category Scaling
Factor
San Diego Region
(Million MT CO2e)
Carlsbad
(MT CO2e)
2012 2014 2016 2012 2014 2016
Lawn and Garden Equipment 3% 0.095 0.093 0.091 3,272 3,231 3,118 Light Commercial Equipment 5% 0.103 0.102 0.101 4,736 4,904 5,053 Construction and Mining 3% 0.184 0.186 0.186 5,427 6,167 6,753 Industrial 8% 0.012 0.013 0.014 902 986 1,070
Total 14,000 15,000 16,000
Not all off-road transportation emissions are included, only selected sub-categories are included.

Total GHG emissions are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

CARB 2007, 2011, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

4.6 Water
The Carlsbad Municipal Water District (CMWD) is a SDCWA member agency that provides both potable and recycled water service within the City of Carlsbad. CMWD services the majority of the City within the potable water service area and covers 77% of the City population.38 The remaining portion of the City is served by Olivenhain Municipal Water District (OMWD) and Vallecitos Water District (VWD).39 100% of the City’s potable water supply is imported water from SDCWA.40 The potable water supplied within CMWD service area and within the entire City is given in Table 12.41

37 The population scaling factors were calculated based on the 2012–2014 populations compared with the regional population.

The regional population is from the SANDAG Demographic & Socio-Economic Estimates (Updated in September 2015), download date: October 29, 2015. Regional commercial jobs in 2012 are from the SANDAG Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast (Updated in October 2013), download date: March 29, 2017, SANDAG Data Surfer. Commercial jobs include all employment types other than agriculture and mining, construction and manufacturing. The jobs estimate in 2013 is interpolated linearly based on 2012 and 2020 jobs estimates.
38 Carlsbad Municipal Water District: 2015 Urban Water Management Plan (June 2016). Section 3.1.3 Population and Demographics.
39 Carlsbad. Water District Map.
40 CMWD and VWD import 100% treated water from SDCWA. OMWD imports both treated and untreated water from SDCWA.

The untreated water is treated at OMWD’s David C. McCollom Water Treatment Plant. 41 Potable water supplied within the CMWD service area (2012-2016) were provided by City staff (January 2018). Population served by CMWD and population within entire City of Carlsbad (2010-2016) were provided by SANDAG (April 2017). Potable water supplied within entire City was calculated based on the population ratio between CMWD service area and the City (77%).

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 14
Table 12 Potable Water Supplied (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014, and 2016) Year
Carlsbad Municipal Water
District (CMWD)
Potable Water Supplied
(Acre-feet)
City of Carlsbad
Potable Water
Supplied
(Acre-feet)
2012 15,866 20,609
2014 16,665 21,634
2016 13,638 17,734
CMWD services the majority of the City within the potable water service area and covers 77% of the City population.

City of Carlsbad 2018, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

The energy used to produce and provide potable water from each type of water is different due to the different raw sources and their locations. Emissions from water use in Carlsbad were estimated using method Wastewater and Water (WW.14) from the U.S. Community Protocol.42 The method considers each segment of the water system (upstream supply and conveyance, local water treatment, and local water distribution) individually, as described below.

Upstream Supply and Conveyance – This is defined as supply and conveyance of water from the raw sources to the local service area. The upstream supply and conveyance energy use for imported water from SDCWA water consists of conveyance of water from the State Water Project and Colorado River through Metropolitan Water District’s service area and SDCWA’s service area before reaching the City.

Local Potable Water Treatment –This is the energy used for water treatment plant operations. CMWD imports treated water directly and does not own a water treatment plant. Therefore, there is no energy used from local water treatment.

Local Potable Water Distribution – This is defined as the energy required to move treated water from water treatment plants to end-use customers. Distribution energy use includes energy use for water pump stations and/or pressure reduction stations, water tanks, etc.

The energy intensity per unit of potable water for each segment of the water system is given in Table 13.

42 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability USA. U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Version 1.0. (2012). Appendix F. Wastewater and Water Emission Activities and Sources.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 15
Table 13 Energy Intensity for Each Segment of Water System Upstream Supply and Conveyance
Energy Intensity (kWh/acre-foot)43 1,816
Local Potable Water Distribution
Energy Intensity (kWh/acre-foot)44 15
MWD 2016, SDCWA 2016, City of Carlsbad 2018.

For upstream supply and conveyance, the potable water amount was multiplied by the upstream energy intensity to get the total electricity use from upstream supply. This electricity use was multiplied by the average California electricity emission factor to calculate the GHG emissions.45 Because the electricity use and GHG emissions associated with upstream supply and conveyance are outside the City boundary and would not be included in the electricity category, they are accounted for instead in the water category.

For water distribution emissions, the potable water amount was multiplied by the energy intensity for local water distribution and the SDG&E electricity emission factor. The electricity and GHG emissions associated with water distribution occur within the City boundary, and have been subtracted from the electricity category, as they are accounted for in the water category.

In addition to providing potable water, CMWD delivers recycled water within the entire City. 46 The
recycled water delivered by CMWD is from three sources: 1) the Carlsbad Water Recycling Facility (WRF), 2) the Meadowlark WRF, and 3) the Gafner WRF. The Carlsbad WRF is owned by CMWD but operated by the Encina Wastewater Authority (EWA). The Meadowlark WRF is owned by VWD and the Gafner WRF is owned by Leucadia Wastewater District (LWWD), but both agencies sell the recycled water to CMWD for distribution.
47 Recycled water is supplied to golf course, parks, industrial areas, and homeowner association common areas, etc. The recycled water energy intensity, 588 kWh/acre-foot, is based on a regional analysis for the North San Diego Water Reuse Coalition (NSDWRC) is used as the best estimate for the City. 48

43 Since climate action plans (CAPs) consider the jurisdiction as the unit of analysis, water-related GHG emissions associated with its water use begin at the jurisdiction’s water supply agency or district. Anything upstream of the agency or district is considered part of upstream supply and conveyance. Therefore, the upstream supply and conveyance energy intensity for SDCWA treated water for CMWD includes conveyance from the State Water Project and Colorado River water to MWD’s distribution system, distribution from MWD to MWD’s member agencies, SDCWA conveyance of raw water to its water treatment plants, treatment in SDWCA’s plants, and distribution of treated water from SDCWA’s treatment plant up to SDCWA’s member agency. SDCWA 2016: Urban Water Management Plan 2015, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Urban Water Management Plan 2015. EPIC Technical Report: Energy-for-Water Nexus in Cities in San Diego County (2018).
44 The distribution energy intensity for CMWD service area in 2015 (the latest year with data available) was provided by City staff (January 2018) and used as a proxy for the inventory years. 45 The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) CAMX (eGRID Subregion) emission rate (653 lbs CO2e/MWh in 2012 and 2014, and 530 lbs CO2e/MWh in 2016) from eGRID was used as representative of the average California electricity emission rate for upstream electricity. U.S. EPA. eGRID 2016 Edition. Released February 15, 2018, accessed June 29, 2018. 46 CMWD delivers recycled water within its service area and also adjacent agency service areas. CMWD is the only recycled water provider within the City. The recycled water distribution area is less than half of the City. 47 Carlsbad Municipal Water District: 2015 Urban Water Management Plan (June 2016). Section 6.7.2 Wastewater Treatment and Collection Facilities.
48 CMWD is a member of the NSDWRC, which is a coalition of water and wastewater agencies in the Northern San Diego County. Escondido 2015 Urban Water Management Plan (Jun 2016). Section 9.3 Water Sector Energy Intensity.

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Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 16
The total potable and recycled water supplied, as well as the corresponding GHG emissions from the water category from the years 2012 and 2014 are given in Table 14.49 Table 14 Water Supplied and GHG Emissions from the Water Category (Carlsbad, 2012 and 2014) Year
Potable Water Recycled Water Total GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Water Supplied
(acre-foot)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Water Supplied
(acre-foot)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2012 20,609 11,187 4,069 814 12,000
2014 21,634 11,724 4,845 804 13,000
2016 17,734 7,806 4,057 568 8,000
GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

A significant amount of energy is associated with end-use water, such as water heating and cooling.

These emissions are included in the electricity and natural gas category, as data are not available to separate out those values.

4.7 Wastewater
The emissions from wastewater generated by Carlsbad were estimated based on the total amount of wastewater generated in a given year and the emission factor of the wastewater treatment processes.

The wastewater in Carlsbad is collected and delivered to the EWA for treatment at the Encina Water Pollution Control Facility (Encina WPCF). The wastewater treatment GHG emissions and total wastewater flow for the Encina WPCF were provided by the Encina Wastewater Authority. In 2013, the Encina WPCF treated an average of 22.8 million of gallons per day (MGD) with annual CO 2e emissions of
11,359 metric tons. This resulted in an emission factor of 1.37 MT CO2e/million gallons treated, which consists of emissions from: 1) stationary combustion of anaerobic digester gas; 2) process emissions from wastewater treatment with nitrification and denitrification; and 3) direct anaerobic digester gas.

The wastewater emission factor derived from the Encina WPCF was applied to all wastewater flow in the City of Carlsbad. As similar data were not available for the other years, the 2013 emission factor was used as an estimate for all inventory years.

The wastewater treated, as well as the corresponding GHG emissions are given Table 15. 50 49 Recycled water delivered by CMWD (2012-2016) were provided by City staff (January 2018). 50 Monthly wastewater (daily average - million gallons per day) data from 2010 to 2016 were provided by City of Carlsbad in January 2018 and converted to million gallons per year.

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Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 17
Table 15 Wastewater Generated and GHG Emissions from Wastewater Category (Carlsbad, 2012, 2014 and 2016) Year
Total Wastewater
Generated
(million gallons/year)
GHG Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2012 2,480 3,000
2014 2,275 3,000
2016 2,170 3,000
GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest hundreds. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

City of Carlsbad 2018, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020. 5 Business-as-usual (BAU) GHG Emissions Projections
To inform the development of GHG reduction strategies within a jurisdiction’s Climate Action Plan (CAP), GHG emissions are projected from the latest data available, as well as projections for population, housing, and job growth. This is used to develop a business-as-usual (BAU) projection, which demonstrates emissions growth in the absence of any new policies and programs. Next, emissions reductions attributable to federal and State policies and programs are applied in the future, creating a legislatively-adjusted BAU.

Figure 6 provides an illustrative example of the difference between a BAU and a legislatively-adjusted BAU. Only the BAU projection is discussed in this document; GHG reductions from the policies and programs included in the legislatively-adjusted BAU are considered in the climate action planning process.

Figure 6 Illustrative Example Only: BAU and Legislatively-adjusted BAU Emissions Projections Section 5.1 provides a summary of the business-as-usual (BAU) emissions projections for 2035, and Section 0 provides the projection methodologies used for each category.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 18

5.1 Emissions Projection s for 2035
The total GHG emissions in 2035 are estimated to be 956,000 MT CO2e based on projection methods by category described below. Figure 7 below shows a comparison of the emissions breakdown by category for the inventory years (2012, 2014, and 2016) and projection year 2035.

Figure 7 BAU GHG Emissions Projections (Carlsbad, 2035) As shown in Figure 7, the on-road transportation category remains the largest component of overall emissions in the projection year, but is not projected to be higher than the transportation emissions in inventory years. The decline of on-road transportation emissions is likely due to the decline of average vehicle emission rates, as newer, more efficient vehicles replace old vehicles in the region. The total and breakdown of projected emissions in each category are presented in Table 16.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 19
Table 16 Projected Total and Category-GHG Emissions in Carlsbad (2035) Emissions Category
Projected Emissions in
2035
(MT CO2e)
On-Road Transportation 445,000
Electricity 296,000
Natural Gas 147,000
Solid Waste 37,000
Off-Road Transportation 19,000
Water 9,000
Wastewater 3,000
Total 956,000
The sum may not add up to totals due to rounding.

Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020.

5.2 Methods to Project GHG Emissions
The Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast included in the SANDAG 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan was used to obtain the population and job growth in Carlsbad. As of March 2020, SANDAG Series 14 Growth Forecast does not have a breakdown of the number of jobs by employment type (e.g., construction, agriculture) for each jurisdiction. Therefore, the ratio of the number of jobs by each employment type to total number of jobs from SANDAG Series 13 Growth Forecast were applied to the jobs forecast From Series 14.51 The projected population and jobs in 2035 are shown in Table 17.

Table 17 Population and Job Growth Forecast (Carlsbad, 2035) Year Population Commercial Jobs Industrial Jobs Total Jobs 2035 119,798 74,039 14,103 88,142
SANDAG 2013, 2019, Energy Policy Initiatives Center, 2020.

Each category was projected to future years using a method specifically for the category as described in the sections below.

5.2.1 On-road Transportation
Average weekday O-D VMT forecasts for each trip type in 2035 were estimated based on SANDAG Series 14 2016 VMT, as shown in Table 18.52

51 The employment types included in the commercial jobs class exclude construction, manufacturing and agriculture jobs.

Construction and manufacturing jobs are considered industrial jobs. Population and Jobs are from the SANDAG Series 14 Regional Growth Forecast, SANDAG 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan Appendix J: Regional Growth Forecast (October 2019), accessed March 10, 2020. SANDAG Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast (Updated in October 2013) is used to break down total jobs by employment type.
52 Series 14 2016 average weekday VMT were provided by SANDAG (September 2019). ABM Release 14.0.1.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 20
Table 18 Projected O-D VMT and Trip Types (Carlsbad, 2035) Trip Type (miles/average weekday)
2016* 2035**
Service
Population
Average
Weekday
Miles
Service
Population
Average
Weekday
Miles
Internal-Internal 187,843 595,962 207,940 659,723
Internal-External/External-Internal 5,220,336 5,778,851 Service population is the sum of population and jobs.
*Based on SANDAG Series 14 VMT estimates. 2016 is the Series 14 Base Year. **Projected based on 2016 VMT with service population projection
SANDAG, 2017.

VMT of each type was converted to total VMT using the method discussed in Section 4.1. The VMT was multiplied by the adjusted average vehicle emission rate derived from EMFAC2017 for each projection year. Two adjustments were made to the EMFAC2014 emission rate: 1) the electric vehicle penetration rate in 2016 was kept constant for all projection years53, 2) for all new vehicles entering the fleet after 2016, the emission rates are equal to the emission rates of new model year 2016 vehicles with the same vehicle class and fuel type.54

The projected total VMT, average vehicle emission rates, and corresponding GHG emissions from the on-road transportation category are given in Table 19.

Table 19 Projected VMT, Average Vehicle Emission Rate and GHG Emissions from On -Road Transportation Category (Carlsbad, 2035)
Year
Projected Total VMT
Average Vehicle
Emission Rate
(g CO2e/mile)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Average
Weekday
Miles
Average
Annual Miles
2035 3,549,148 1,231,554,425 361 445,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

CARB 2018, SANDAG 2019, Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.2 Electricity
Electricity use in the City was projected separately for residential, commercial and industrial customer classes. For the residential customer class, the per-capita electricity use (metered electricity sales) in 2014 (2,159 kWh/person/year), was calculated by dividing the total electricity sales in the residential class by the population. The per-capita electricity use was held constant and used to project total electricity use for a future year by multiplying by the SANDAG Series 14 population forecast for the future year. The projected total electricity use was multiplied by the City-specific electricity emission factor in 2016 (545 lbs CO2e/MWh), held constant, for a projected total GHG emission.

53 The fixed 2016 electric vehicle penetration rate is used to remove the impact of the state Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program on BAU emissions. The ZEV program requires auto manufacturers to make and sell ZEVs that will increase VMTs driven by ZEVs.
54 This uses a fixed actual emission rate of the new 2016 models instead of the effect of adopted federal and state vehicle efficiency standards 2017-2025 for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 21
A similar method was used for the commercial and industrial class emissions projections. The total commercial electricity use was projected based on job growth and the per-job electricity consumption in 2016 of 6,936 kWh/commercial job/year. For the industrial class, the electricity use at the Carlsbad Desalination Plant (177,000 MWh in 2016) was kept constant, and the remaining industrial electricity use was projected based on the industrial job growth (10,126 kWh/industrial job/year) for all future years. The total projected net energy for load (electricity sales + transmission and distribution losses) and corresponding GHG emissions from the electricity category are given in Table 20.55 Table 20 Projected Net Energy for Load and GHG Emissions from the Electricity Category (Carlsbad, 2035) Year
Projected Net Energy for Load
(electricity sales + losses)
(MWh)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2035 1,195,896 296,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.3 Natural Gas
The projection method for the natural gas category is similar to that for the electricity category. The natural gas use in residential, commercial and industrial classes is calculated separately. The per-capita residential natural gas consumption (118 therms/person/year) and the per-job natural gas consumption (151 therms/commercial job/year and 126 therms/industrial job/year) in 2016 were held constant with population and job growth for the projection. The natural gas emission factor used in Section 4.3 was held constant. The projected total natural gas use and corresponding GHG emissions from the natural gas category are given in Table 21.

Table 21 Projected Natural Gas Use and GHG Emissions from Natural Gas Category (Carlsbad, 2035) Year
Projected Total
Natural Gas Use
(Million Therms)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2035 27.1 147,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.4 Solid Waste
Solid waste disposal in Carlsbad was projected using the population growth and the per-capita solid waste disposed in 2016 (3.5 kg/person/day), to be consistent with other categories. The projected emissions from the disposal were calculated by multiplying the disposal amount with the emission factor for mixed solid waste, provided in Section 4.4. The projected total waste disposal and corresponding GHG emissions from the solid waste category are given in Table 22.

55 The net energy for load of each future year is adjusted using the method described in Section 4.2. The net energy for load does not include self-serve renewable supply, such as electricity generation from distributed-level solar PV systems.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 22
Table 22 Projected Solid Waste Disposal and GHG Emissions from Solid Waste Category ( Carlsbad, 2035) Year
Projected Solid
Waste Disposal
(metric tons)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2035 153,549 37,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.5 Off-Road Transportation
In the off-road transportation category, the direct output of OFFROAD2007 (lawn and garden equipment and light commercial equipment), RV2013 model (recreational equipment), and diesel-fueled potable equipment for the San Diego region were used and scaled down to Carlsbad based on the scaling factor as determined in Section 4.5. For the construction and industrial equipment sub-category, the In-Use Off-Road Equipment 2011 Inventory does not include emissions output after 2030. For the projection years 2020 and 2030, the direct output for the San Diego region from the model was used and scaled down to Carlsbad. For 2035, the emissions were estimated based on the commercial and industrial job growth. The projected total and sub-category off-road transportation emissions are given Table 23.

Table 23 Projected GHG Emissions from Off-Road Transportation Category (Carlsbad, 2035) Year
Projected GHG Emissions (MT CO2e)
Lawn and
Garden
Equipment
Light
Commercial
Equipment
Construction
and Mining Industrial Total
2035 3,419 5,370 8,661 1,577 19,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

CARB. Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.6 Water
The total water use for all projection years was determined using the same method as the solid waste section and was based on 2016 per-capita water consumption and population growth. It is assumed that no new potable or recycled water source is developed under the BAU projection.

The per-capita water supplied in 2016 was 141 gallons/person/day for potable water and 32 gallons/person/day for recycled water. The energy intensity for each element of the water cycle (Table 13) and the electricity emission factor were held constant for all projection years. The projected total potable water supplied and corresponding GHG emissions from the water category are given in Table

24. Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020

Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) 23
Table 24 Projected Water and GHG Emissions from the Water Category (Carlsbad, 2035) Year
Projected Total
Water Supplied
(acre-foot)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2035 23,691 9,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the
intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

5.2.7 Wastewater
The total wastewater generation for all projection years was determined using the same method as the solid waste and water sections, based on 2016 per-capita wastewater generation and projected population growth. The per-capita wastewater generated in 2016 (53 gallons/person/day) and the emission factor derived from data based on the Encina Wastewater Authority (Section 4.7) was held constant for all projection years.

The projected total wastewater generated and the GHG emissions from the wastewater category are given in Table 25.

Table 25 Projected Wastewater Treated at the Centralized Treatment Plant and GHG Emissions from the Wastewater Category (Carlsbad, 2035)
Year
Projected
Wastewater
treated
(million gallons)
Projected GHG
Emissions
(MT CO2e)
2035 2,321 3,000
Projected GHG emissions for each category are rounded
to the nearest thousands. Values are not rounded in the intermediary steps in the calculation.

Energy Policy Initiatives Center 2020.

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020 Draft
Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) A-1
Appendix A. CARLSBAD VMT BY TRIP TYPE
2012 and 2014 average weekday VMT data tables were from SANDAG ABM Series 13, Release 13.3.0, and 2016 average weekday VMT were from SANDAG ABM Series 14, ABM Release 14.0.1. Emphasis (red squares and text) was added by EPIC.

Figure A-1 Estimated Carlsbad 2012 VMT by Trip Type (Series 13)

Figure A-2 Estimated Carlsbad 2014 VMT by Trip Type (Series 13)

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020 Draft
Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) A-2

Figure A-3 Estimated Carlsbad 2016 VMT by Trip Type (Series 14)

Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020 Draft
Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) B-1
Appendix B. SOURCE DATA FOR THE SOLID WASTE EMISSION FACTOR Waste Component
Waste
Distribution1
(%)
Landfill Gas Emissions
CH4 without LFG
Recovery
(MT CO2e/short ton)
Source2
Organics 57.2% - -
Food 22.8% 1.57 Exhibit 1-49, WARM V14 Organic Materials Other Misc. Paper-Compostable 0.4% 2.24 Average of paper components Remainder/Composite Paper -
Compostable 10.8% 2.24 Average of paper components
Leaves and Grass 3.1% 0.55 Average of grass (0.51) and leaves (0.59), Exhibit 2-11 WARM V14 Organic Materials
Pruning and Trimmings 2.1% 0.59 Exhibit 2-11 WARM V14 Organic Materials Branches and Stumps 0.8% 0.77 Exhibit 2-11 WARM V14 Organic Materials Manures 0.1% n/a n/a
Textiles 3.9% n/a n/a
Carpet 1.0% n/a Exhibit 3-26, WARM V14 Construction and Demolition Materials, no landfill CH4
Clean Dimensional Lumber 1.0% 0.15 Exhibit 11-19, WARM V14 Construction and Demolition Materials
Clean Engineered Wood 0.6% 0.16 Wood flooring, Exhibit 10-13, WARM V14 Construction and Demolition Materials
Clean Pallets & Crates 1.7% 0.05 Wood product, Exhibit 11-19, WARM V14 Construction and Demolition Materials
Other Wood Waste 2.3% 0.05 Wood product, Exhibit 11-19, WARM V14 Construction and Demolition Materials
Remainder/Composite Organic 6.6% 0.84 Average of all organic material Paper 13.0% - -
Uncoated Corrugated Cardboard 2.3% 2.36 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 Containers /Packaging Paper Bags 0.3% 2.36 Assume the same as cardboard, Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 Containers /Packaging
Newspapers 2.1% 0.95 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 Containers /Packaging White Ledger Paper 0.8% 3.50 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 Containers /Packaging Other Office Paper 1.0% 3.50 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 Containers /Packaging Magazine and Catalogs 0.7% 1.08 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 containers /packaging Phone Books and Directories 0.0% 2.14 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 containers /packaging Other Misc. Paper - Other 3.7% 2.14 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 containers /packaging Remainder/Composite Paper 2.1% 2.14 Exhibit 3-27, WARM v14 containers /packaging Glass 2.8% - -
Carlsbad GHG Emissions Inventories and Projection April 13, 2020 Draft
Energy Policy Initiatives Center (EPIC) B-2
Waste Component
Waste
Distribution1
(%)
Landfill Gas Emissions
CH4 without LFG
Recovery
(MT CO2e/short ton)
Source2
Metal 3.5% - -
Electronics 0.9% - -
Plastic 13.9% - -
Inerts and Other Material 3.1% - -
Household Hazardous Waste 0.5% - -
Special Waste 3.7% - -
Mixed Residue 1.3% - -
Mixed Waste Emission Factor 0.98
Source: 1 City of Oceanside Waste Characterization Study (2017), 2 EPA Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Version 14 (2016)

Appendix B-2
2005 and 2011 Local
Government Operations
Greenhouse Gas Inventory

MEMORANDUM

To: David de Cordova
From: Chris Ford
Re: Carlsbad Government Operations Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update – 2011 Date: June 18, 2013

This memo summarizes the approach taken to update the 2005 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory from City of Carlsbad government operations with 2011 data and compares the inputs and outputs. A separate memo covers community emissions, updated with 2011 data. That memo is referenced in this one to minimize repetition of information.

The content of th ese memos will contribute to the summary of Carlsbad’s GHG emissions in the forthcoming Climate Action Plan (CAP); the memos may be placed in an appendix to the CAP.

Technical terms and acronyms that appear in this memo are listed in Table 1.

Table 1: Technical Terms and Acronyms
CACP Clean Air and Climate Protection software, a model developed by ICLEI to inventory and forecast GHG emissions
CAP Climate Action Plan
CARB California Air Resources Board, the agency responsible for setting statewide GHG emission reduction targets. CARB also maintains several GHG emission calculation models.

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalents, a measure of GHGs that converts non -CO2 emissions to the same impact as carbon dioxide
EPA US Environmental Protection Agency
FTE Full-Time Equivalent employees
GHG Greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO 2), carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide (N 2O), and methane (CH4)
ICLEI An organization that provides standards and models for measuring and forecasting GHG emissions
SDG&E San Diego Gas and Electric, the energy utility for Carlsbad VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled, a measure of the annual amount of driving within an area, used to calculate GHG emissions from vehicles

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Carlsbad City CouncilApril 19, 2022

Carlsbad City Council
April 19, 2022