Attachment IX Draft CAP with Appendices — Hayward City Council, January 30, 2024 (part 2 of 3)

information for these TAZ sections.7 No differences exist at the census tract level outside of Alameda County for the other MTC counties. In addition to the trip purposes modeled by MTC, the ACTC model also includes additional purposes in the travel demand model like light, medium, and heavy-duty internal and interregional truck trips to capture commercial trips as part of the travel demand model and has added additional mode choice options to include transit buses. The ACTC model also uses an origin-destination method to assign VMT to individual communities (i.e., 100 percent of daily trips completely within the jurisdiction, 50 percent of Partially In trips, and 0 percent of outside trips were allocated to Hayward).

The ACTC model VMT data is generally consistent with the MTC model, however, it differs in a few ways.

The ACTC model captures interregional travel between San Joaquin County and Hayward which are not captured with the MTC model while commercial vehicle VMT are modeled with the ACTC model rather than using a regional data set like the MTC model. Therefore, while the ACTC model produced travel demand forecasts that are generally consistent with the travel demand forecasts that the MTC model produces, VMT reported from the ACTC model are 7 percent higher than VMT values reported from the MTC model due to the inclusion of the San Joaquin County in the ACTC, there is more refined demographic data for Alameda County compared with the MTC regional model, and ACTC includes of commercial VMT in the model.

Evaluation
Similar to the MTC model limitations, the ACTC model relies on previous years of data including surveys of transportation patterns, land uses, and several other factors that may be dated given current conditions and recent situations that have altered traffic patterns (e.g., COVID-19). Future road networks and land use changes are based on the Plan Bay Area 2040. As such future travel demand is based on existing or modeled patterns and not able to capture year over year changes that could occur due to local changes. Additionally, like the MTC model, the horizon year for the model is 2040. This limits the accuracy and utility of this model for years beyond the horizon year. The ACTC model is advantageous for GHG modeling to the MTC model as VMT data generated by the ACTC model includes light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle trips (i.e., passenger and commercial trips) using the same travel demand model and origin-destination boundary approach, improving consistency of the data set compared with the MTC model that uses two different data sets to obtain passenger and commercial VMT data. Additionally, the ACTC model has more refined demographic data for Alameda County in which Hayward is located, making this model potentially a more accurate representation of VMT in Hayward than the MTC model.

EMFAC 2021Model
Background Review
EMFAC 2021 is the latest emission inventory model that CARB developed to assess emissions from on- road motor vehicles including cars, trucks, and buses in California. It’s based on the statewide and regional vehicle activities and includes recently adopted regulations like the Advanced Clean Trucks, Innovative Clean Transit, and Heavy-Duty Omnibus regulations. The model utilizes Department of Motor Vehicle (DMV) registration data, International Registration Plan data, National Transit Database data, and vehicle data from the California Highway Patrol and major ports for vehicle characterizations in a

7 ACTC. 2018. Alameda Countywide Travel Demand Model Plan Day Area 2040 Update. Available < https://www.alamedactc.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/12/Key_Features_of_the_Model_Jul2018-1.pdf> Accessed June 2022.

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county or region. Activity data are incorporated into the model from several sources including National Household Travel Surveys, 2018 California Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey and Geotab Telematics Data, and Portable Activity Measurement Systems from 200-Vehicle Project. The model estimates future light-duty VMT and new vehicle sales based on the latest available socio-economic data from UCLA Anderson Forecast, California Department of Finance, California Board of Equalization, California Energy Commission, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. VMT of light-duty vehicles at the statewide level is forecasted using multivariate regression analysis based on previous time-series data from 2003-2019.

Heavy-duty VMT future trends are based on the forecasted VMT per county from the California Statewide Freight Forecasting Model. EMFAC 2021 also forecasts the penetration of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) based on the projected ZEV market share under the most likely compliance scenario with California’s ZEV mandate. Default VMT data is estimated based on previous fuel sales and is tied to a specific county, sub-county or region where vehicles are registered rather than assigned to a community using an origin-destination method.

Evaluation
The EMFAC model generates data only as granular as the county level limiting accuracy for a city within Alameda County and does not utilize the origin-destination methodology recommended by the ICLEI U.S. Community Protocol. 8 Similar to the ACTC and MTC model limitations, the EMFAC model relies on previous years of data and other factors that may be dated given current conditions and recent situations that have altered VMT. As such future VMT is based on existing or modeled patterns and not able to capture year over year changes that could occur due to local changes. Additionally, the EMFAC model was developed for emission inventorying, so the VMT activity data is an estimate based on fuel sales, vehicle sales, and vehicle registration records and does not incorporate or account for impacts on VMT due to land use development changes. As such, VMT activity data from EMFAC 2021 is limited in its accuracy for municipal and for projecting VMT changes over time. However, EMFAC 2021 is particularly useful for developing an emission factor by vehicle category given the emissions inventory data and incorporated regulations impacting emissions, as well as provides useful information surrounding the anticipated future penetration of ZEVs into the vehicle mix of a region or County.

Google EIE Model
Background Review
Google EIE uses Google GIS data sources included in cell phones and modeling capabilities to produce estimates of activity data and emissions for various sectors to aid agencies in climate action planning.

The modeled estimates are based on actual measurements of activity and current infrastructure paired with machine learning techniques and scaling factors. Collected activity and infrastructure data is the same as the underlying information used for Google Maps where the data is anonymous, aggregated and combined with other data sources to create useful VMT estimates in Google EIE. For the transportation sector, Google EIE accounts for all trips by all vehicle types that start or ends within the City boundary using anonymized and aggregated Location History data. The data accounts for movement on all major road classifications ranging from interstates to local roads. Annual vehicle trips by mode and vehicle distances are estimated using population and occupancy factors scaling techniques similar to transportation demand models. Region-specific assumptions obtained from Climate Action for Urban Sustainability tool are used to determine vehicle fleet mix and average fuel efficiency of vehicles

8 ICLEI. 2019. U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Available: <https://icleiusa.org/us- community-protocol/>. Accessed May 20, 2022.

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in the region.9 Provided Google EIE VMT data for Hayward includes light-duty and heavy-duty automobiles VMT and buses (excluding public transit) VMT. Additionally, Google EIE provides data regarding on-foot miles traveled and miles traveled by subways. Hayward utilized ridership data obtained from Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) to calculate emissions associated with Hayward community use of BART. Hayward does not have another rail or subway system beyond BART and therefore, subway mileage data from Google EIE was not used in the Hayward inventory or forecast.

Data for VMT follows the origin-destination method where 100 percent of in-boundary trips and 50 percent of outbound and inbound trips are attributed to the community of Hayward, while pass through trips are excluded from the VMT data set.

Evaluation
Google EIE data captures VMT data in real-time and is advantageous to transportation demand modeled data as it is able to accurately portray changes in VMT year over year that may be related to circumstances like COVID-19 or implementation of local policies and land use developments. Google EIE data is limited in previous data only dating as far back as 2018. As such, for to update GHG inventories older than 2018, a conversion or scaling factor would be applied to previous MTC inventory data to provide estimates comparable to Google EIE. Additionally, Google EIE does not distinguish between light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles in the automobile class of VMT and does not include public transit buses as part of the bus class of VMT. As such, the automobile class VMT would need to be allocated to passenger or commercial vehicles based on another data source, such as EMFAC, and public transit bus VMT would need to be evaluated separately for the inventory.

Comparison of VMT Data
This section includes a comparison of the VMT data sources for Hayward from the four different models.

VMT data from each of the four data sources was compared during 2018 and 2019, which are years that data was available and considered “typical”10. VMT data was compared against MTC data, as MTC data is the data source originally used for the Hayward GHG emissions inventories (i.e., 2005, 2010. 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019) and the Hayward 2009 CAP. Table 1 provides a summary of the comparison.

9Google. (n.d). Methodology. Google Insights Explorer. Available: <https://insights.sustainability.google/methodology>. Accessed May 20, 2022. 10 Due to impacts on VMT and traffic patterns caused by COVID-19 in 2020, the 2020-year data was not evaluated as it is not reflective of “typical “ conditions.

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Table 1 Comparison of VMT Data Sources for Hayward for 2018 and 2019 MTC1 ACTC2 EMFAC 20213,4 Google EIE5
2018
Total VMT 1,088,220,072 1,164,159,045 1,349,979,145 973,250,000 Passenger Vehicles 915,174,796 1,003,996,271 1,234,860,955 890,131,191 Commercial Vehicles 165,116,268 152,338,752 109,413,100 78,868,809 Buses Vehicles 7,929,007 7,824,021 5,705,090 4,250,000 Average % deviation
from MTC total VMT6
N/A 7% 24% -11%
2019
Total VMT 1,095,372,659 1,169,822,223 1,356,385,315 942,650,000 Passenger Vehicles 921,045,495 1,008,627,852 1,240,475,294 860,511,102 Commercial Vehicles 166,473,724 153,450,839 110,263,061 76,488,898 Buses Vehicles 7,853,439 7,743,533 5,646,959 5,650,000 Average % deviation
from MTC total VMT6
N/A 7% 24% -14%
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

VMT = vehicle miles traveled; MTC = Metropolitan Transportation Commission; ACTC = Alameda County Transportation Commission; EMFAC = EMission FACtor (EMFAC) 2021; Google EIE = Google Environmental Insights Explorer

1. MTC data includes passenger and commercial vehicles with any omitted vehicle types added back in using EMFAC data proportions.

Bus VMT is estimated as a percent proportion of commercial MTC data using EMFAC countywide percent proportion for Alameda County.

2. ACTC data includes passenger and commercial data where bus vehicle types are included in the commercial vehicle total. Bus VMT is estimated as a percent proportion of commercial MTC data using EMFAC countywide percent proportion for Alameda County.

3. Vehicle types from EMFAC 2021 are categories as passenger, commercial or buses as follows: Passenger (LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH); Commercial (LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT); Buses (OBUS, SBUS, UBUS).

4. EMFAC 2021 data is countywide therefore to estimate VMT for Hayward, passenger vehicle VMT were scaled to Hayward based on the percent proportion of Hayward’s population compared with the countywide population; commercial vehicle and bus VMT were scaled to Hayward based on the percent proportion of Hayward’s service population compared with the countywide service population

5. Google EIE data reports VMT for two categories: 1) “automobiles” which include passenger and commercial vehicles and 2) “buses” which encompass all buses (e.g., school buses, private charter buses) except public transit like AC Transit. Automobile VMT is allocated to passenger or commercial vehicle VMT using the EMFAC Countywide proportion of passenger and commercial vehicle VMT for Alameda County.

6. Total VMT from each of the four data sources was compared back to MTC total VMT as MTC data is the data source originally used for Hayward inventories and the Hayward 2009 Climate Action Plan.

As shown in Table 1, VMT data sourced from the ACTC model is most similar to the MTC VMT data. This is anticipated given that both models use the same base assumptions and encompass the nine Bay area counties. ACTC VMT is approximately 7% greater than MTC likely due to the inclusion of interregional trips between Hayward and San Joaquin County, a county not included in the MTC model. EMFAC2021 VMT data deviates the furthest from the MTC model at approximately 24% greater VMT. This is likely a by-product of EMFAC2021 VMT data being an estimate based on fuel consumption at a Countywide level leading to overestimation of VMT when scaled to jurisdiction level for Hayward. Google EIE VMT data is approximately 11% and 14 % less than MTC modeled data for 2018 and 2019 respectively.

However, Google EIE data is considered to be more reflective of annual jurisdiction VMT as data is based on data collected annually rather than MTC VMT data that is modeled based on a 2005 and 2015 baseline conditions forecasted forward where local condition changes or policies occurring in a year would not be captured.

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VMT Data Determination
This section includes a final determination of the data source to be utilized for Hayward GHG emissions inventories and forecast. Due to the base assumptions used in a travel demand model like MTC or ACTC that are based on land use developments, trip purposes, and human behavior under typical conditions, the VMT data from such models likely overestimate VMT traveled by the Hayward community, and accuracy diminishes the further the modeled year is from the baseline year. This would be especially true for years following the COVID-19 pandemic where base assumptions surrounding trip purposes and human behavior are no longer reflective of current conditions. As EMFAC 2021 uses fuel use data and vehicle registration data to estimate VMT at the county level, EMFAC 2021 VMT data does not accurately reflect local conditions of a jurisdiction. As such, while EMFAC 2021 is useful for providing emission factors or information on future market trends for vehicle types (i.e., EV, ZEV penetration), EMFAC 2021 overestimates the VMT associated with a community such as Hayward and is limited in accuracy.

Google EIE VMT data, though not available for years earlier than 2018 or for future years, is reflective of local conditions in a community, provides the greatest level of accuracy of VMT data, and is able to capture change year over year, as it captures actual travel data within the subject year11 rather than relying on the application of base assumptions. This method of VMT capture provides value to Hayward in that policies or actions taken locally (such as expanded transit or pedestrian infrastructure) or other conditions (like COVID-19) that impact VMT would be reflected in the annual community VMT data. This increased sensitivity to local changes will allow Hayward to better monitor the efficacy of its VMT reduction measures as well as limit the risk of over or underestimating changes in VMT that are an artifact of modeling assumptions.

Therefore, based on the review of the four data sources available for VMT for Hayward, the limitations of each data source, and the ease of access for annual data, Hayward has opted to use Google EIE VMT data to update previous and existing GHG inventories as well as for future GHG inventories.

Resulting On-road Transportation Sector GHG Inventory Updates This section describes the methodology and results of the updated GHG inventories resulting from the use of Google EIE VMT data. It is important that the methodology and data sources utilized for the GHG inventories and forecasts are consistent, as this limits the risk of GHG emission changes observed to be an artifact of methodology or model changes. In order to address the risk associated with transitioning to a different VMT data source that uses a different estimation methodology, the City of Hayward updated all previous GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019) to be based on Google EIE VMT data.

Google EIE began collecting VMT data in 2018 and does not have VMT values earlier than 2018. As such, the City updated the 2018 and 2019 inventories using available Google EIE data. Google EIE provides data for on-road transportation in two categories: 1) “automobiles” which include passenger and commercial vehicles and 2) “buses” which encompass all buses (e.g., school buses, private charter buses) except public transit like AC Transit. Emissions associated with AC Transit is calculated separately for the inventory using data obtained from the National Transit Database and is further detailed in the

11 Location History data is gathered locally and continuously measured via people’s phones. The data used for transportation behavior is the same underlying information as made available in Google Maps where information such as traffic are updated continuously.

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Hayward Future GHG Emissions Forecast and Gap Analysis Memorandum dated April 5, 2022. VMT from the bus category of Google EIE data make up approximately 0.5 percent of total (i.e., automobile + bus category) Google EIE VMT data for Hayward. This is comparable to EMFAC 2021 Countywide VMT data for corresponding years (2018 and 2019) where vehicle types categorized as buses made up 0.4 percent of total VMT. Because Google EIE VMT data for automobiles is not broken out by passenger and commercial vehicles, it was assumed that the distribution between passenger and commercial vehicles in Alameda County, as determined by EMFAC 2021, are representative of Hayward. Therefore, Google EIE automobile VMT was allocated to Hayward passenger and commercial vehicle categories based on the EMFAC 2021 data for the County, where in both 2018 and 2019 approximately 92 percent of all “automobiles”, excluding bus vehicle types, were passenger vehicles and 8 percent were commercial vehicles.

For GHG inventories earlier than 2018 where Google EIE data is not available, the previous GHG inventories on-road transportation sector needed to be adjusted to remain comparable to future years where Google EIE would be the data source for VMT. As shown in Table 1, total annual VMT data obtained from Google EIE for Hayward for 2018 and 2019 was found to be approximately 11 percent and 14 percent lower than the modeled 2018 and 2019 MTC data, respectively, utilized in the previous GHG inventories. As such, Google EIE VMT data from the two comparable inventory years (2018 and 2019)12 was on average approximately 12 percent lower than modeled MTC data for the same years. To make the previous GHG inventories (i.e., 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017) comparable to the revised 2018 and 2019 GHG inventories, the previous annual MTC total VMT data from 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017 was scaled down by 12 percent. The adjusted total VMT data by year was then attributed to passenger, commercial, and bus vehicle categories based on the percent distribution between passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and buses determined for Alameda County using EMFAC 2021.13 On-road transportation emissions were calculated using the adjusted VMT data and emissions factors by vehicle category (i.e., passenger, commercial, and bus) derived from EMFAC 2021 on-road model. A summary of the Hayward previous and updated on-road VMT and associated emissions for each inventory year is provided in Table 2. On-road transportation emissions were forecasted based on 2019 data year.

Reference the Hayward Future GHG Emissions Forecast and Gap Analysis Memorandum dated April 5, 2022 for details regarding methodology for forecasting Hayward activity data and associated GHG emissions.

Table 2 Hayward Previous and Updated On-Road VMT and Associated GHG Emissions On-Road Total
Annual VMT
2005 2010 2015 2017 2018 2019
Previous On-Road Total
Annual VMT1
1,126,343,501 1,023,970,690 1,075,958,492 1,091,342,210 1,088,176,092 1,095,363,045 Previous On-Road Total
CO2e Emissions (MT) 630,735 576,052 577,103 568,684 550,025 547,339 Google EIE data2 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. 973,250,000 942,650,000 Updated On-Road Total
Annual VMT2,3
988,348,823 898,518,280 944,136,765 957,635,737 973,250,000 942,650,000 % Passenger Vehicles4,5 90.3% 90.9% 91.7% 91.2% 91.4% 91.2%

12 13 Vehicle types from EMFAC 2021 are categories as passenger, commercial or buses as follows: Passenger (LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH); Commercial (LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT); Buses (OBUS, SBUS, UBUS). See EMFAC 2021 technical documentation for vehicle classification definitions.

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% Commercial Vehicles4,5 9.3% 8.7% 7.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2%
% Buses Vehicles3,4,5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
Passenger EF (MT
CO2e/VMT)6

0.00042 0.00041 0.00038 0.00036 0.00035 0.00035
Commercial EF (MT
CO2e/VMT) 6

0.00148 0.00146 0.00147 0.00144 0.00144 0.00144
Bus EF (MT CO2e/VMT) 6 0.00171 0.00175 0.00155 0.00150 0.00149 0.00147 Updated On-Road Total
CO2e Emissions(MT)7
520,768 458,988 441,751 437,514 436,005 417,862 Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

VMT = vehicle miles traveled; CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent; n.d. = no data available

1. VMT data in previous inventories obtained from MTC. The method that MTC uses to model VMT omits certain types of vehicles, including motorcycles, motor homes and all types of buses. Previous inventories estimated VMT from these vehicle types to ensure a more complete inventory, using data from the California Air Resources Board’s EMFAC model. VMT from these omitted vehicle types were added back into the MTC VMT total.

2. VMT data for 2018 and 2019 were obtained from Google EIE where total VMT includes the Google EIE vehicle category “automobile”, that encompasses passenger and commercial vehicles, and “buses” that includes all buses except AC Transit.

3. Because Google EIE data is only available for 2018 and 2019, MTC data for earlier inventory years (2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017) was calculated by scaling down original MTC modeled data for those inventory years by the average difference between Google EIE 2018 and 2019 data and 2018 and 2019 MTC data (i.e., Google EIE VMT data was ~12% lower than annual MTC VMT data for the corresponding year).

4. Percent distribution between passenger, commercial, and bus VMT was obtained from EMFAC 2021 for Alameda County for inventory years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017. For 2018 and 2019, the percent distribution of total VMT that was buses was obtained directly from Google EIE, whereas the remaining VMT was allocated to either passenger or commercial VMT based on the percent distribution between passenger and commercial vehicles obtained from EMFA C2021 for Alameda County.

5. Vehicle types from EMFAC 2021 are categories as passenger, commercial or buses as follows: Passenger (LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH); Commercial (LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT); Buses (OBUS, SBUS, UBUS)

6. City-level data is not available from EMFA C2021 however it is assumed that county-level emission factors and vehicle class distribution is representative of the City.

7. VMT by vehicle class was determined by multiplying total adjusted VMT by % distribution by vehicle class. Emission factors by vehicle class were applied to the VMT by vehicle class and summed to calculate the updated on-road emissions total for all inventories.

Table 2 provides the updated VMT for each historic inventory year (i.e., 2005, 2010. 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019) using Google EIE data for 2018 and 2019, and by applying the scaling factor to the original MTC VMT data for years that Google EIE data was not available (i.e., 2005, 2010. 2015, and 2017).

Additionally, the table presents the updated GHG emissions for the on-road transportation sector. The original 2019 inventory VMT data resulted in GHG emission from on-road transportation comprising of 67% of Hayward’s community GHG emissions, whereas with the updated VMT data for 2019 using Google EIE, on-road emissions comprised of 61% of Haywards community GHG emissions. This change is associated with the previous VMT data sourced from the MTC model likely overestimating VMT activity data for Hayward. The document Hayward Future GHG Emissions Forecast and Gap Analysis Memorandum dated April 5, 2022, includes additional details regarding the updated inventories for Hayward including activity data and associated GHG emissions as well as details the methodology for forecasting emissions from all sectors including the on-road transportation sector using Google EIE VMT data.

Appendix C
GHG Forecasts and Gap Analysis

Rincon Consultants, Inc.

Environmental Scientists Planners Engineers

M E M O R A N D U M
■ Oakland
449 15th Street
Suite 303
Oakland, California 94612
(510) 834 4455
Carlsbad: (760) 918 9444
Fresno: (559) 228 9925
Los Angeles: (213) 788 4842
Monterey: (831) 333 0310
Oakland: (510) 834 4455
Redlands: (909) 253 0705
Riverside: (951) 782-0061
Sacramento: (916) 706 1374
San Diego: (760) 918 9444
San Luis Obispo: (805) 547 0900
Santa Barbara: (805) 319 4092
Santa Cruz: (831) 440 3899
Ventura: (805) 644 4455

Date: December 1, 2023
To: City of Hayward
Erik Pearson <[email protected]>; Nicole Grucky nicole.grucky@hayward- ca.gov; Carolyn Weisman <[email protected]> Cc: Leigha Schmidt <[email protected]>; Darcy Kremin <[email protected]>
From: Rincon Consultants, Inc.

Kelsey Bennett <[email protected]>; Erica Linard <[email protected]>; Erik Feldman <[email protected]> Project: Hayward Climate Action Plan Update
Re: Future GHG Emissions Forecasts and Gap Analysis Memorandum Rincon Consultants, Inc. (Rincon) has calculated the 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts based on the Hayward 2019 GHG emission inventory as well as population and economic growth projections for Hayward. The 2019 GHG emissions inventory identifies the major sources and quantities of GHG emissions produced by communitywide activities within Haywards’s city limits (i.e., the Hayward General Plan Update planning area). The inventory was developed by the City and provides the City with the data necessary to establish a GHG emissions baseline for the Climate Action Plan (CAP) Update, track GHG emissions trends, and identify the greatest sources of GHG emissions within their jurisdiction.

The GHG emissions forecast discussed in this memorandum provides an estimate of how Hayward’s GHG emissions are expected to change in the years 2025 (interim year), 2030 (initial Senate Bill 32 compliance year), 2035 (interim year), 2040 (Hayward General Plan Update horizon year), and 2045 (initial Executive Order B-55-18 compliance year) as a result of anticipated Hayward economic and population growth, as well as the impacts that California climate-related legislation would have on these City of Hayward
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future GHG emissions. This memorandum also discusses the 2025, 2030, and 2045 GHG emission reduction targets adopted by Hayward that are aligned with California goals as well as the total quantity of GHG emissions reduction that Hayward needs to achieve in order to contribute their fair share reduction of California’s GHG emission reduction goal.1 The gap between the 2030 adjusted forecast and Hayward’s 2030 targets would be addressed through local actions to be included in the CAP Update.

This memorandum also describes updates to previous (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019) GHG inventories that were recalculated due to changes and/or updated methodologies. These changes were made to align the factors and methodologies across all the inventories so that the inventory information and results can be compared across years. The following sections provide a summary of the results for the GHG emission inventories, GHG emission forecast, and GHG reduction targets to be included in the Hayward CAP Update.

GHG Emissions Sectors and Sources
The GHG emissions forecasts presented herein are based on the 2019 GHG emissions inventory calculated for Hayward by the City as well as population and economic growth projections for Hayward.

Based on the findings in the GHG Inventory Data Consistency and Analysis Approach Review Memorandum, prepared for the City on November 5, 2021, the City updated the analysis and/or emission factors of several sectors within the previous 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019 inventories to be consistent with the Community Protocol, ensure methodology consistency across inventories, and ensure the most updated emission factors and modeled data were utilized that are best representative of communitywide emissions.

Specifically, in the water and wastewater sectors, the inventories were updated to include the addition of emissions associated with indirect electricity use from the water and wastewater sectors as well as process emissions from wastewater generation attributed to the community. In the electricity sector, eGRID electricity emission factors were updated to align with the EPA’s most current eGRID2019 emission factors. Also, three updates were made related to the transportation sector emissions:

1. Addition of the Hayward AC Transit bus system into the public transit calculations;

2. Update to on-road transportation data to use Google Environmental Insights Explorer (EIE) vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data2 and the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) EMission FACtor (EMFAC) Model Version 2021 v1.01; and

3. Update to off-road transportation data to use the CARB EMFAC OFFROAD2021 Model v1.02.

No updates were made to the natural gas sector nor the solid waste sector. Updates to the 2019 GHG inventory are described in further detail in the Hayward GHG Emissions Inventory Update Summary section below. The GHG emissions sources included in the 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 forecasts analysis align with those in the GHG inventory, which includes GHG emissions sources related to land use and transportation in the Hayward General Plan Update planning area. The GHG emissions sectors and associated sources included in the inventories and forecasts are provided in Table 1.

1 California’s long-term GHG emission reduction goals were established by the landmark Assembly Bill 32, Senate Bill 32, and Executive Order B-55-18. Collectively, these legislative actions provide a GHG reduction trajectory of reducing Statewide GHG emissions to 1990 GHG emission levels by 2020, 40% below 1990 GHG emissions levels 2030, and carbon neutrality by 2045. 2 EIE uses unique Google data sources and modeling capabilities to produce estimates of activity, emissions, and makes them freely available.

Google EIE account for all VMT by all vehicle types that start or ends within the City boundary for a calendar year using anonymized and aggregated Location History data (i.e., the underlying information made available in Google Maps). More information can be found here:
https://insights.sustainability.google/methodology
City of Hayward
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Table 1 Hayward GHG Emissions Sectors and Sources
Hayward GHG Emissions Inventory Update Summary
The GHG emissions forecast analysis presented here is based upon the calculated GHG emissions from each source included in the 2019 GHG emissions inventory developed by the City. The City updated the emissions calculations for the 2019 GHG inventory for on-road transportation, off-road transportation, public transit, and for electricity. The updates made by the City are summarized below and are detailed in a City-prepared Hayward GHG Emissions Inventory Technical Memorandum.

Transportation Sector Updates
On-Road Transportation Updates
Hayward’s previous inventories included VMT data from Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) which included passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. To ensure a complete representation of all on-road vehicles, the data set was adjusted in the previous GHG inventories to include motorcycles, motor homes, and buses using EMFAC data sets as those vehicle classes are not included in the MTC data set. However, the City plans to use Google EIE VMT data for all future inventories, starting with 2020. Google EIE account for all trips by all vehicle types that start or ends within the City boundary using anonymized and aggregated Location History data. Use of Google EIE VMT data is advantageous to trip based traffic models as the data is collected real time throughout the year and is reflective of changes occurring in City VMT year over year, unlike transportation models which estimate VMT based on population and land use changes.

GHG Emissions Sector GHG Emissions Source
Transportation Passenger On-Road Transportation
Commercial On-Road Transportation
Bus On-Road Transportation (excluding Public Transit)
Off Road - Diesel
Off Road - Gasoline
Off Road - Natural Gas (LPG)
Public Transit - BART
Public Transit – AC Transit
Electricity1 Residential Electricity Consumption
Non-Residential Electricity Consumption
Natural Gas Residential Natural Gas Consumption
Non-Residential Natural Gas Consumption
Water Indirect Electricity Consumption from Water Delivery Wastewater Indirect Electricity Consumption from Wastewater Collection and Treatment
Direct Wastewater Treatment Emissions
Solid Waste Methane Commitment of Solid Waste Generated by Community

1. Electricity Consumption includes electricity provided by Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)and Other Providers including local Community Choice Aggregation (CCAs).

2. Direct wastewater treatment emissions are from the following sources: digester gas from anaerobic digesters at wastewater treatment plants, nitrification of wastewater, and effluent from treatment and discharge of wastewater City of Hayward
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It is important that the methodology and data sources utilized for the inventories and forecast developed from the most current inventory are consistent as this limits the risk of any emission changes observed to be an artifact of methodology or model changes. Therefore, to address the risk associated with transitioning to a different VMT data source that uses a different estimation methodology, the City updated all previous GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019) to be based on Google EIE VMT data. Google EIE began collecting VMT data in 2018 and does not have previous VMT values earlier than 2018. As such, the City updated the 2018 and 2019 inventories using available Google EIE data. Total annual VMT data obtained from Google EIE for Hayward for 2018 and 2019 was found to be on average 13 percent lower than the modeled 2018 and 2019 MTC data utilized in the previous inventories. To make the previous inventories 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017 comparable to the revised 2018 and 2019 inventories, the previous MTC annual VMT data from 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017 was scaled down by 12 percent. Reference the VMT Memorandum (forthcoming) for the detailed VMT methodology and comparative analysis between VMT data from the different sources and models.

A summary of the Hayward previous and updated on-road VMT emissions for each inventory year is provided in Table 2. Total annual VMT was attributed to either passenger or commercial vehicles based on the percent distribution determined for Alameda County using the recently updated California Air Resources Board (CARB) EMission FACtor (EMFAC) 2021 on-road model.3 On-road transportation emissions were calculated using the updated VMT data and updated emissions factors were derived from EMFAC2021 on-road model.

3 Passenger vehicles included the vehicle classes: LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH, commercial vehicles included vehicle classes: LHDT1, LHDT2, HHDT, MHDT; bus vehicles included vehicle classes: OBUS, SUBUS, UBUS. See EMFAC2021 technical documentation for vehicle classification definitions.

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Table 2 Hayward Previous and Updated On-Road Annual VMT and GHG Emissions On-Road Total
Annual VMT
2005 2010 2015 2017 2018 2019
Previous On-Road
Total Annual VMT1 1,126,343,501 1,023,970,690 1,075,958,492 1,091,342,210 1,088,176,092 1,095,363,045 Previous On-Road
Total CO2e
Emissions (MT)
630,735 576,052 577,103 568,684 550,025 547,339
Updated On-Road
Total Annual VMT2,3 988,348,823 898,518,280 944,136,765 957,635,737 973,250,000 942,650,000 % Passenger
Vehicles4,5 90.3% 90.9% 91.7% 91.2% 91.4% 91.2%
% Commercial
Vehicles4,5 9.3% 8.7% 7.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2%
% Buses Vehicles3,4,5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
Passenger EF (MT
CO2e/VMT)6 0.00042 0.00041 0.00038 0.00036 0.00035 0.00035 Commercial EF (MT
CO2e/VMT) 6 0.00148 0.00146 0.00147 0.00144 0.00144 0.00144 Bus EF (MT
CO2e/VMT) 6 0.00171 0.00175 0.00155 0.00150 0.00149 0.00147 Updated On-Road
Total CO2e
Emissions(MT)7
520,768 458,988 441,751 437,514 436,005 417,862
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

VMT = vehicle miles traveled; CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent

2. Google EIE data includes all trips from all vehicle classes (excluding transit buses). Because Google EIE data is only available for 2018 and 2019, MTC data for earlier inventory years (2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017) was scaled down by the average difference between Google EIE 2018 and 2019 data and 2018 and 2019 MTC data (i.e., Google EIE VMT data was ~12% lower than annual MTC VMT data for the corresponding year).

3. Updated VMT data for 2018 and 2019 were obtained from Google EIE where total VMT includes the Google EIE vehicle category “automobile”, that encompasses passenger and commercial vehicles, and “buses” that includes all buses except AC Transit.

4. Percent distribution between passenger, commercial, and bus VMT was obtained from EMFAC2021 for Alameda County for inventory years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017. For 2018 and 2019, the percent distribution of total VMT that was buses was obtained directly from Google EIE, whereas the remaining VMT was allocated to either passenger or commercial VMT based on the percent distribution between passenger and commercial vehicles obtained from EMFAC2021 for Alameda County.

5. Vehicle types from EMFAC2021 are categories as passenger, commercial or buses as follows: Passenger (LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH); Commercial (LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT); Buses (OBUS, SBUS, UBUS)

6. City-level data is not available from EMFAC2021 however it is assumed that county-level emission factors and vehicle class distribution is representative of the City.

Off-Road Transportation Updates
The City updated all GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019) using the recently released OFFROAD2021 off-road emissions database. Off-road activity data, measured in U.S. gallons of fuel consumed by fuel type, was estimated using a combination of outputs from the CARB OFFROAD2021 Model (V1.0.2), per CARB recommendations. The updated inventories aggregate off-road activity by fuel type and allocate these emissions to the transportation sector using the same allocation factors previously used.

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Public Transit Updates
The City updated all GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019) to include emissions associated with Alameda-Contra Costa Transit (AC Transit) attributed to Hayward following the U.S. Community Protocol methodology for public transit attribution to a community. Transit emissions were first calculated for AC Transit using the U.S. Community Protocol methods TR.4.A and TR.4.B, where National Transit Database (NTD) reported fuel consumption data was multiplied by the fuels emission factor for buses. U.S. Community Protocol method TR.4.D was used to determine attribution of emissions to the community based on the amount of total vehicle revenue miles for the agency that were traveled within Hayward’s city boundaries.

Electricity Sector Updates
The City updated all GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019) to use updated regional electricity emissions factors for CH4 and N2O to supplement PG&E supplied CO2 emission factors. Because PG&E does not provide CH4 and N2O emission factors for electricity, the City updated the eGRID CH4 and N2O emission factor to be regionally specific to the California grid by pulling the emission factor from the eGRID Summary Tables on the EPA’s website4.

Water and Wastewater Sectors Updates
The City previously had not included emissions associated with indirect electricity use for water and wastewater or process emissions associated with wastewater treatment attributed to the City in the historical inventories. Following the same Methodological Summary used to prepare the historical inventories, the City updated all GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019) to include indirect electricity emissions and direct emissions associated with water and wastewater generation in the community. See the East Bay Energy Watch Regional Greenhouse Gas Inventory Phase III Methodological Summary (June 2020) for details on the activity data used and the analysis methodology consistent with the Community Protocol.

Natural Gas and Solid Waste Sectors Updates
No updates to Hayward’s GHG emissions inventories were necessary related to the natural gas and solid waste sectors.

Overall Updated 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory
A detailed summary of the updated 2019 GHG emissions inventory, incorporating the aforementioned individual sector updates, is provided in Table 3. The updated 2019 GHG emissions inventory was utilized for forecasting future emissions.

4 eGrid Summary Tables 2019. 2019. https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-02/documents/egrid2019_summary_tables.pdf. Accessed March, 18 2022.

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Table 3 Hayward Updated 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory Summary GHG Emissions Sector/Source Emissions
(MT CO2e)
Activity Data Activity Data Units
Transportation
Passenger On-Road Transportation1 298,256 859,527,091 VMT Commercial On-Road Transportation1 111,329 77,472,909 VMT Bus On-Road Transportation2 8,277 5,650,000 VMT
Off Road - Diesel 14,661 1,421,471 Gallons
Off Road - Gasoline 4,940 542,985 Gallons
Off Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 4,687 807,908 Gallons
Public Transit - BART 547 41,311,182 Passenger Miles
Public Transit- AC Transit3 4,308 1,666,441 Passenger Miles Electricity4,5
Residential Electricity - PG&E 1,144 12,136,210 kWh Non-Residential Electricity – PG&E 3,032 32,163,187 kWh Tier 1 Residential Electricity – Other Providers 5,182 84,954,304 kWh Tier 1 Non-Residential Electricity – Other Providers 3,108 50,952,251 kWh Tier 2&3 Residential Electricity – Other Providers 0 141,916,183 kWh Tier 2&3 Non-Residential Electricity – Other Providers 0 428,524,234 kWh Natural Gas5
Residential Natural Gas 95,291 17,943,901 Therms
Non-Residential Natural Gas 81,358 15,320,155 Therms Water
Indirect Electricity from Water Delivery6 6 66,143 kWh Wastewater
Indirect Electricity from Wastewater Treatment5 380 4,029,050 kWh Direct Emissions from Wastewater Treatment 1,702 160,197 Population Solid Waste
Solid Waste Generated/Disposal 43,171 150,924 Tons Landfilled Alternative Daily Cover (ADC) Generated 3,015 12,272 Tons Landfilled Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents; kWh = kilowatt hours; N/A = not applicable

1. As described in the above sections, the on-transportation sector was updated as moving forward the City will be using Google EIE data. EMFAC2021 percent allocation of VMT to passenger and commercial vehicles classes for the County of Alameda in 2019 was applied to the total annual automobile VMT data category obtained from Google EIE for Hayward.

2. Google EIE reports VMT from all bus types except public transit including AC Transit.

3. Emissions associated with public transit are those attributed to Hayward based on passenger miles occurring within City boundaries.

4. The City receives electricity from PG&E as well as the Community Choice Aggregation East Bay Community Energy (EBCE). Tier 2 and Tier 3 of EBCE provided electricity are both carbon-free. Tier 2 reaches a carbon-free emission factor through use of large hydro- electric power which is not considered a eligible renewable source per RPS definitions. Tier 3 reaches a carbon-free emission factor through power supplied 100% by eligible renewable sources per RPS definitions.

5. PG&E published data presented herein meets the aggregation and anonymization rules to meet privacy regulations. Details of privacy regulations can be found here: https://pge-
energydatarequest.com/sites/default/files/PGE_Aggregation_and_Anonymization_Rules.pdf

6. City rounds indirect electricity emissions from water and wastewater to the tenths place in their inventory. These values have not been rounded here for the purpose of forecasting.

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Hayward GHG Emissions Forecasts
Hayward’s 2019 inventory establishes a reference point for communitywide emissions in a specific year.

However, annual GHG emissions change over time and GHG emissions forecasts provide a way to estimate future emission levels based on both the continuation of current activities and external factors such as population and job growth. Forecasts also account for California legislative actions that are anticipated to reduce GHG emissions. Thus, the emissions forecast provides detail on the level of GHG reductions needed to achieve the GHG emissions reduction targets in a future year. Calculating the difference between the forecasted GHG emissions and the reduction target determines the gap to be closed through local actions and policies. This section includes an estimate of the future emissions for Hayward in the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 in a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) forecast and an adjusted scenario (adjusted) forecast, which are defined as follows:
▪ Business-as-usual scenario- Provides a forecast of how future GHG emissions would change if current activities continued as they did in 2019 and growth trends were to occur absent of any policies or legislation that would reduce local emissions. The BAU forecast is based on growth trends projected in population, housing, employment, and transportation activity over time, consistent with regional projections.
▪ Adjusted scenario- Provides a forecast of how currently adopted legislation would reduce GHG emissions from the business-as-usual scenario. The adjusted scenario represents the State’s contribution to reducing local GHG emissions to meet State goals without any additional contribution from local policies or actions.

Business-as-usual (BAU) GHG Emissions Forecast
The BAU forecast provides an estimate of how GHG emissions would change in the forecast years if existing action continued as in 2019, absent any new regulations or actions which would reduce local GHG emissions. The BAU forecast is based on growth projected trends in population, and employment over time, consistent with local and regional projections. The BAU GHG emissions projections were calculated based on the guidance of the Association of Environmental Professionals 2012 whitepaper Forecasting Communitywide GHG Emissions and Setting Reduction Targets. The result is a BAU forecast in which GHG emissions change with time in relation to demographics, with the assumption that GHG emissions rates and activity data will continue in the future as they did in the year of the 2019 GHG emissions inventory. This methodology is used for all GHG emissions sectors and sources included in the 2019 GHG emissions inventory except for off-road transportation. Off-road equipment GHG emissions were alternatively projected using modeled activity data and emissions as detailed below. A description of the demographic metrics used to project activity data and associated growth factors for each forecasted GHG emission source are provided in Table 4 for each for the GHG emission sources in the 2019 community GHG emissions inventory. Detailed calculations for the BAU forecast are included in Attachment A.

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Table 4 Growth Metrics and Associated GHG Emissions Sectors The BAU forecast for the Hayward planning area relies on the growth and demographic projections used in the Hayward Housing Element currently being drafted and was obtained from the Plan Bay Area 2040 for the Alameda CTC Zone.5 Demographic projections were approved by the City for use in forecasting.

Table 5 provides an overview of the growth metrics used to project GHG emissions for the BAU forecast calculations.

Table 5 Growth Metrics for Hayward BAU GHG Emissions Forecast The growth indicators for Hayward are provided in Table 6 for each GHG emissions source, excluding off- road fuel consumption which was modeled separately, described in more detail below.

5 Although the Plan Bay Area 2050 was adopted in October 2021, at the time of drafting this forecast and Housing Element the demographic projections obtained and approved by the City from the Plan Bay Area 2040 are considered the best available data.

GHG Emissions
Sector
GHG Emission Source Associated Growth
Metric
Growth Metric Data
Source
Transportation Passenger On-Road Households Plan Bay Area 2040 Commercial On-Road Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Bus On-Road (excluding Public Transit) Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Public Transit -BART Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Public Transit – AC Transit Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Electricity Residential GHG Emissions Sources Households Plan Bay Area 2040 Non-Residential GHG Emissions
Sources
Employment
Natural Gas Residential GHG Emissions Sources Households Plan Bay Area 2040 Non-Residential GHG Emissions
Sources
Employment
Water All GHG Emissions Sources Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Wastewater All GHG Emissions Sources Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Solid Waste All GHG Emissions Sources Service Population Plan Bay Area 2040 Growth Metric1,2 20191 2025 2030 2035 2040 20453
Population 160,197 161,781 167,425 173,069 178,713 184,358 Employment 70,739 70,326 72,073 73,821 75,568 77,315 Service Population 230,936 232,107 239,498 246,890 254,281 261,673 Housing 47,987 51,788 53,108 54,427 55,747 57,066
Notes: Service Population = Population + Employment

1. Previous inventories demographic data was obtained from MTC, including years 2005,

2. Forecasted demographic data for Hayward is based on the Alameda CTC Zone from plan Bay Area 2040 and is consistent with the projections used for the Housing Element and traffic analysis conducted by Kittleson & Associates, Inc. Data was provided for year 2020 and 2040, therefore interim years were linearly interpolated.

3. To estimate demographic growth past 2040, the annual compound growth rate between 2020 and 2040 was applied to the demographic data to estimate demographic projections in 2045.

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Table 6 Growth Indicators for BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Off-Road Activity Data
Activity data for off-road GHG emissions forecast was modeled separately from the above growth metrics and growth indicators, using the outputs from the CARB web-based OFFROAD2021 model. The OFFROAD2021 database was queried for Alameda County for the forecast years to obtain fuel consumption for gasoline, diesel, and natural gas. The inclusion of specific equipment sectors from the database query was determined based on their relevance to activities occurring within Hayward and remained consistent with previous Hayward inventories. The following equipment sectors are included in the 2019 baseline year inventory and the GHG emissions forecast:
▪ Construction and Mining
▪ Light Commercial
▪ Industrial
▪ Pleasure Craft
▪ Portable Equipment
GHG Emissions Source Activity Data Units
Transportation
Passenger On-Road 17,911.67 Passenger VMT/Household
Commercial On-Road 335.47 Commercial VMT/Service Population Bus On-Road (excluding Public Transit) 24.47 Bus VMT/ Service Population Off Road - Diesel NA OFFROAD Model
Off Road - Gasoline NA OFFROAD Model
Off Road - Natural Gas (LPG) NA OFFROAD Model
Public Transit - BART 178.89 Passenger Miles/Service Population Public Transit – AC Transit 7.22 Passenger Miles/Service Population Electricity
Residential Electricity 4,980.66 kWh/Household
Non-Residential Electricity 7,232.81 kWh/Employment
Natural Gas
Residential Natural Gas 373.93 Therms/Household
Non-Residential Natural Gas 216.57 Therms/Employment
Water
Indirect Electricity from Water Delivery 0.00022 MG/Service Population Wastewater
Indirect Electricity from Wastewater Treatment 0.026 MG/Population Direct Emissions from Wastewater Treatment 0.011 MT CO2e/Population Solid Waste
Solid Waste Generation 0.65 Tons Landfilled/Service Population ADC Generation 0.05 Tons Landfilled/Service Population Notes: NA = not applicable; MT CO2e = metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent; kWh = kilowatt-hour; MG = million gallons City of Hayward
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▪ Recreational Vehicles
▪ Lawn and Garden
▪ Transportation Refrigeration Units
The results of the database query were summarized for all equipment sectors in Alameda County.

Hayward was allocated a percentage of county fuel consumption for each sector relative to Hayward’s proportion of jobs or population in the county. The results are summarized in Table 7.

Table 7 Hayward BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Off-Road Fuel Consumption Emissions Factors
The BAU GHG emissions forecast is representative of a scenario where community activities are generally similar to that of the most recent 2019 GHG emissions inventory. As such, BAU activity data growth is multiplied by the emissions factors used to calculate GHG emissions from the 2019 GHG emissions inventory to generate an estimate of future GHG emissions without influence from GHG reduction policies at the State or local level. The BAU GHG emissions factors for the relevant GHG emissions sources and sectors are provided in Table 8, reported in MT CO2e.

Off-road Fuel Category 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Diesel 1,421,471 1,591,090 1,741,895 1,882,487 2,034,506 1,500,899 Gasoline 542,985 585,183 624,078 665,017 710,483 712,605 Natural Gas 807,908 876,474 937,988 1,001,263 1,071,304 1,071,304 Notes: All values are of the unit gallons of fuel
Data Source: California Air Resources Board. 2021. OFFROAD2021 v1.0.2 Emissions Inventory . Available: https://arb.ca.gov/emfac/emissions- inventory/b3e3139ff7a2304c48acb2a0684ab41b38c5c26e. Accessed March 25, 2022.

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Table 8 BAU GHG Emissions Factors
BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Results
The following provides a summary of the results of the BAU GHG emissions forecast for each source in Hayward. The results have been reported in MT CO2e. The BAU forecast projects a gradual increase in GHG emissions above the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory from the energy sector, water and wastewater sector, and from solid waste due to projected population growth. Emissions associated with GHG Emissions Source GHG Emissions Factor Units
Transportation
Passenger On-Road1 0.000347 MT CO2e/VMT
Commercial On-Road1 0.00144 MT CO2e/VMT
Bus On-Road (excluding Public Transit)1 0.00147 MT CO2e/VMT Off Road - Diesel 0.0103 MT CO2e/Gallons
Off Road - Gasoline 0.0091 MT CO2e/Gallons
Off Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 0.0058 MT CO2e/Gallons
Public Transit - BART 0.0000133 MT CO2e/Passenger Miles Public Transit – AC Transit 0.00259 MT CO2e/Passenger Miles Electricity2
Weighted Residential Electricity 0.0000265 MT CO2e/kWh Weighted Non-Residential Electricity 0.0000120 MT CO2e/kWh Natural Gas
Residential Natural Gas 0.00531 MT CO2e/Therm
Non-Residential Natural Gas 0.00531 MT CO2e/Therm
Water
Indirect Electricity from Water Delivery3 0.000094 MT CO2e/kWh Wastewater
Indirect Electricity from Wastewater Treatment3 0.000094 MT CO2e/kWh Direct Emissions from Wastewater Treatment4 0.0106 MT CO2e/person Solid Waste
Solid Waste Generation 0.29 MT CO2e/Tons Landfilled
ADC Generation 0.25 MT CO2e/Tons Landfilled
Notes: NA = not applicable; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; MT CO2e = metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent; kWh = kilowatt-hour; ADC = alternative daily cover

1. On-road passenger, commercial, and bus VMT in the 2019 inventory does not differentiate EV vs ICE vehicles, as such its assumed that electricity associated with EV charging is captured in the building energy sector. The BAU forecast follows suit and electricity associated with EV charging is captured under the building energy sector.

2. Electricity emission factors for residential and non-residential are weighted based on the quantity of electricity consumed by each category by provider and the associated emission factor. It is assumed for the BAU forecast that the emission factors for all providers will not change from the 2019 year

3. Electricity emission factor for indirect electricity emissions from water and wastewater assumed to be PG&E default emission factor to remain consistent with previously prepared inventories.

4. Starting in 2018, Hayward began managing all the City’s wastewater. Because wastewater treatment methods and the associated calculation parameters (i.e. default values and constants) remain the same year over year and change only with the change in population served, all direct emissions associated with wastewater treatment were aggregated and divided by the population served in 2019 to develop a single emission factor.

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transportation show a slight decline over time attributed to an increasing contribution of VMT traveled by EVs as projected by EMFAC2021 which offsets the increased VMT projected. Table 9 and Figure 1 provide a summary of the Hayward BAU GHG emissions forecast.

Table 9 Hayward BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Summary
GHG Emissions Source 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Transportation
Passenger On-Road
Transportation 298,256 321,882 330,084 338,285 346,486 354,687 Commercial On-Road
Transportation 111,329 120,212 124,041 127,869 131,697 135,525 Bus On-Road
Transportation1 8,277 8,319 8,584 8,849 9,114 9,379
Off Road –
Transportation and
Equipment
24,287 26,818 29,084 31,274 33,662 28,177
Public Transit - BART 547 550 568 585 603 620
Public Transit - AC
Transit 4,308 4,330 4,468 4,605 4,743 4,881
Electricity2
Residential Electricity 6,326 6,828 7,001 7,175 7,349 7,523 Non-Residential
Electricity 6,140 6,104 6,256 6,408 6,560 6,711
Natural Gas
Residential Natural Gas 95,291 102,840 105,460 108,080 110,701 113,321 Non-Residential Natural
Gas 81,358 80,883 82,893 84,903 86,912 88,922
Water
Indirect Electricity from
Water Delivery 6 6 6 7 7 7
Wastewater
Indirect Electricity from
Wastewater Treatment 380 384 397 410 424 437
Direct Emissions from
Wastewater Treatment 1,702 1,719 1,779 1,839 1,899 1,959 Solid Waste
Solid Waste Generation 43,171 43,390 44,772 46,154 47,536 48,917 ADC Generation 3,015 3,030 3,127 3,223 3,320 3,416
TOTAL 684,395 727,297 748,520 769,667 791,012 804,484 Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding. All values are of the unit metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e)

1. Bus on-road transportation does not include public transit. Public transit is calculated separately.

2. Electricity associated with EV charging is captured in the building energy sector in the BAU forecast.

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Figure 1 Hayward BAU GHG Emissions Forecast (MT CO2e) through 2045

Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast
Several federal and State regulations have been enacted that would reduce Hayward’s GHG emissions in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045. The impact of these regulations was quantified and incorporated into the adjusted forecast to project future emissions growth and the responsibility of the City and community once established State regulations have been implemented. The State legislation included in the adjusted forecast result in GHG emission reductions related to transportation, building efficiency and renewable electricity. A brief description of each regulation and the methodology used to calculate associated reductions is provided in the following, as well as a description of why specific legislation was excluded from the analysis. The following State legislation were applied to the Adjusted Forecasts based on the unique sectors within Hayward:
▪ 2019 Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards: The California Code of Regulations Title 24, Part 6: California’s Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings, was first adopted in 1978 in response to a legislative mandate to reduce California’s energy consumption, which in turn reduces fossil fuel consumption and associated GHG emissions. The standards are updated triennially to allow consideration and possible incorporation of new energy-efficient technologies and methods. The 2019 Title 24 Energy Efficiency Standards have come into effect, creating significantly more efficient new building stock. Starting in 2020, new residential developments must include on-site solar generation and near-zero net energy use. ▪ Renewable Portfolio Standard and Senate Bill 100: Established in 2002 under Senate Bill 1078, enhanced in 2015 by Senate Bill 350, and accelerated in 2018 under Senate Bill 100, California's Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) is one of the most ambitious renewable energy standards in the country. The RPS program requires investor-owned utilities, publicly owned utilities, electric service providers, and community choice aggregators to increase procurement from eligible renewable energy resources to 50 percent of total procurement by 2026 and 60 percent of total procurement by 2030. The RPS program further requires these entities to increase procurement from GHG-free sources to 100 percent of total procurement by 2045. -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Emissions (MT CO2e)
Energy Transportation Solid Waste Water/Wastewater
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▪ Transportation Legislation: Major regulations incorporated into CARB’s 2021 transportation model (EMFAC2021) include Advanced Clean Car Standards (LEV III, ZEV program, etc.), Senate Bill 1, and Phase 2 Federal GHG Standards. Additional reductions were calculated for the newly promulgated Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) regulations from CARB. Signed into law in 2002, AB 1493 (Pavley Standards) required vehicle manufacturers to reduce GHG emissions from new passenger vehicles and light trucks from 2009 through 2016. Regulations were adopted by CARB in 2004 and took effect in 2009 when the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) issued a waiver confirming California’s right to implement the bill. The CARB anticipates that the Pavley I standard will reduce GHG emissions from new California passenger vehicles by about 30 percent in 2016, while simultaneously improving fuel efficiency and reducing motorists’ costs.6 Prior to 2012, mobile emissions regulations were implemented on a case-by- case basis for GHG and criteria pollutant emissions separately. In January 2012, CARB approved a new emissions-control program combining the control of smog, soot-causing pollutants, and GHG emissions into a single coordinated package of requirements for passenger cars and light trucks for model years 2017 through 2025. The Advanced Clean Cars program coordinates the goals of the Low Emissions Vehicles, Zero Emissions Vehicles, and Clean Fuels Outlet programs into a single coordinated package of requirements for model years 2017 to 2025. The new standards are anticipated to reduce GHG emissions by 34 percent in 2025.7 Public transit GHG emissions will also be reduced in the future through the Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) regulation, which was adopted in December 2018. It requires all public transit agencies to gradually transition to a 100-percent zero-emission bus fleet by 2040. Under ICT, large transit agencies are expected to adopt Zero-Emission Bus Rollout Plans to establish a roadmap towards zero emission public transit buses.8
Table 10 summarizes the legislation that was applied to each sector in the adjusted forecast.

6 CARB. Clean Car Standards – Pavley, Assembly Bill 1493. May 2013. http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccms/ccms.htm 7 CARB. Facts About the Advanced Clean Cars Program. December 2011. http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/factsheets/advanced_clean_cars_eng.pdf 8 Innovative Clean Transit. Approved August 13, 2019. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/ictfro-Clean- Final_0.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
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Table 10 Hayward Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast Sectors and Applicable Legislation The following State legislation was not included in the emissions forecast calculations:
▪ Assembly Bill 939 and 341: In 2011, AB 341 set the target of 75 percent recycling, composting, or source reduction of solid waste by 2020 calling for the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) to take a Statewide approach to decreasing California’s reliance on landfills. This target was an update to the former target of 50 percent waste diversion set by AB 939.

As actions under AB 341 are not assigned to specific local jurisdictions, AB 939 has not been included as part of the adjusted forecast and instead measures addressing compliance with AB 939 will be included in the CAP Update.
▪ Senate Bill 1383: In 2016, SB 1383 established a methane emission reduction target for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) in various sectors of the economy. Specifically, SB 1383 establishes targets to achieve a 50 percent reduction in the level of the Statewide disposal of organic waste from the 2014 level by 2020 and a 75 percent reduction by 2025 (CalRecycle 2019). Additionally, SB 1383 requires a 20 percent reduction in “current” edible food disposal by 2025. Although SB 1383 has been signed into law, compliance at the jurisdiction-level is un-proven. For example, Santa Clara GHG Emissions Sector GHG Emissions Source
Transportation Passenger On-Road Transportation Transportation Legislation (Advanced Clean Cars Standards, Pavley Standards,
Phase 2 Federal GHG Standards)
Commercial On-Road Transportation Transportation Legislation (Advanced Clean Cars Standards, Pavley Standards,
Phase 2 Federal GHG Standards)
Bus On-Road Transportation Transportation Legislation (Advanced Clean Cars Standards, Pavley Standards,
Phase 2 Federal GHG Standards)
Off Road - Diesel None
Off Road - Gasoline None
Off Road - Natural Gas (LPG) None
Public Transit - BART None
Public Transit – AC Transit Innovative Clean Transit
Electricity1 Residential Electricity Consumption Title 24 – applied to new buildings SB 100 – all electricity use
Non-Residential Electricity Consumption Title 24 – applied to new buildings SB 100 – all electricity use
Natural Gas Residential Natural Gas Consumption Title 24 – applied to new buildings Non-Residential Natural Gas Consumption Title 24 – applied to new buildings1 Water Indirect Electricity Consumption from
Water Delivery
SB 100
Wastewater Indirect Electricity Consumption from
Wastewater Collection and Treatment
SB 100
Direct Wastewater Treatment Emissions None
Solid Waste Methane Commitment of Solid Waste
Generated by Community
None

1. As detailed below, though Title 24 impacts new building it is not anticipated to have a natural gas reduction impact on non- residential buildings under the 2019 Energy Efficiency Standards.

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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County, in their SB 1383 Rulemaking Overview presentation (June 20, 2018),9 suggest that the 75 percent reduction in organics is not likely achievable under the current structure; standardized bin colors are impractical; and the general requirement is too prescriptive. As such, SB 1383 has not been included as part of the adjusted forecast. Instead measures addressing compliance with SB 1383 will be included and quantified through GHG reduction measures included in the CAP Update.

GHG Reduction Legislation Calculations
The following methodology was used to calculate energy-related GHG emissions reduction related to Title 24 and SB 100.
▪ Title 24: It is assumed that all growth in building energy consumption is from new construction.

Accordingly, Title 24 GHG emissions reduction for natural gas and electricity are calculated as a percentage of the projected increase in energy consumption beyond the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory, under the BAU forecast. For projects implemented after January 1, 2020, the California Energy Commission (CEC) estimates that the 2019 standards will have the following energy consumption reduction impact:
• 53 percent reduction beyond the 2019 baseline for residential electricity; • 30 percent reduction beyond the 2019 baseline for commercial electricity; and • 7 percent reduction beyond the 2019 baseline for residential natural gas.10 ▪ SB 100: PG&E and other providers such as the Community Choice Aggregation East Bay Community Energy (EBCE) that currently provide electricity in Hayward are subject to SB 100 requirements. GHG emissions from electricity consumption are largely determined by the emissions factor associated with the supplied electricity. Legislative GHG emissions reductions from SB 100 are calculated as the difference between GHG emissions under the BAU forecast electricity and GHG emissions calculated using a SB 100-adjusted GHG emissions factor for a given forecast year. An adjusted GHG emission factors is calculated by scaling the current electricity GHG emissions factor with the RPS percentage for eligible renewable electricity required for compliance with SB 100. Each of the electricity providers for Hayward has different electricity emissions factors due to different RPS percentages in their electricity delivery mix. The RPS percentages and associated GHG emissions factors used to determine the adjusted forecast electricity emissions are provided in Table 11. In 2019, the RPS percentage for all EBCE tiers of service already exceeded SB 100 requirements of a 60% RPS percentage by 2030. As such, EBCE emission factors in the forecasted years were linearly interpolated between the 2019 emission factor and an emission factor of 0 in 2045 which would correspond with the SB 100 requirement of 100% RPS by 2045. Note that while both Title 24 and SB 100 influence GHG emissions reductions in the electricity sector, double counting of these reductions is avoided by accounting for Title 24 reductions first and then accounting for reductions from SB 100.

9 Santa Clara County. June 20, 2018. SB 1383 Rulemaking Overview. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/rwr/rwrc/Documents/SB%201383%20PowerPoint.pdf 10 California Energy Commission. 2018. 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards Frequently Asked Questions. Available:
<https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/Title_24_2019_Building_Standards_FAQ_ada.pdf>. Accessed June 21, 2021.

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Table 11 Electricity Provider Forecasted RPS and Electricity GHG Emissions Factors The following methodology was used to calculate transportation-related GHG emissions reduction related to various State legislation.
▪ Transportation Legislation: Activity data for the adjusted forecasted on-road transportation VMT was similarly forecasted as the BAU forecast where the growth metrics were applied to the BAU growth indicators for passenger and commercial VMT to forecast passenger and commercial VMT. Reductions in GHG emissions from the above referenced transportation standards were calculated using CARB’s EMFAC2021 model for Alameda County. The EMFAC2021 model integrates the estimated reductions into the mobile source emissions portion of the model.11 The degree to which GHG emissions from on-road transportation will be reduced can be quantified as the difference between transportation emissions calculated using the 2019 provided emission factors and calculated using the reduced emission factors for the target years. In addition, passenger and commercial electric vehicle (EV) electricity consumption was calculated per forecast year based on EV penetration rates obtained from EMFAC 2021.

11 Additional details are provided in CARB’s EMFAC2017 Technical Documentation, July 2018. (https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/downloads/emfac2017-volume-iii-technical-documentation.pdf). Note that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) regulation is excluded from EMFAC2017 because most of the emissions benefits due to the LCFS come from the production cycle (upstream emissions) of the fuel rather than the combustion cycle (tailpipe). As a result, LCFS is assumed to not have a significant impact on CO 2 emissions from EMFAC’s tailpipe emission estimates.

Energy Provider 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
PG&E
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Percentage 32% 47% 60% 73% 87% 100%
Adjusted Electricity Emission Factor
(MT CO2e/kWh) 0.000094 0.000073 0.000055 0.000037 0.000018 0.0 Tier 1 – Other Providers (EBCE -Bright Choice)
Adjusted Electricity Emission Factor
(MT CO2e/kWh) 0.000061 0.000047 0.000035 0.000023 0.000012 0.0 Tier 2&3 – Other Providers (EBCE – Brilliant 100 and Renewable 100) Adjusted Electricity Emission Factor
(MT CO2e/kWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Weighted Community Electricity Emissions Factor1,2
Residential Adjusted Electricity
Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)1 0.000026 0.000020 0.000015 0.000010 0.000005 0.0 Non-residential Adjusted Electricity
Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)2 0.000012 0.000009 0.000007 0.000005 0.000002 0.0 Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; kWh = kilowatt hour

1.The Residential Weighted Electricity Emission Factor is developed based on the percent of residential electricity provided by each provider in 2019. It is assumed that the percent of residential electricity provided by each provider remains consistent over time. Based on the 2019 inventory, residential electricity was provided by the providers as follows: ~ 5% by PG&E, ~35% by EBCE- Bright Choice (Tier 1), ~ 59% by EBCE – Brilliant 100 (Tier 2), ~.<0.1% by EBCE – Renewable 100 (Tier 3).

2.The Non-residential Weighted Electricity Emission Factor is developed based on the percent of non-residential electricity provided by each provider in 2019. It is assumed that the percent of residential electricity provided by each provider remains consistent over time. Based on the 2019 inventory, non-residential electricity was provided by the providers as follows: ~ 6% by PG&E, ~10% by EBCE- Bright Choice (Tier 1), ~ 84% by EBCE – Brilliant 100 (Tier 2), ~.<0.1% by EBCE – Renewable 100 (Tier 3).

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Passenger and commercial EV emissions from electricity consumption are subtracted from residential and commercial energy emissions respectively in the adjusted forecast as emissions from EV charging in the forecast years are captured under the transportation sector. This emissions reallocation is labeled as an “EV adjustment” in the forecasts. The forecasted annual VMT and associated GHG emissions factors used to determine the adjusted forecast on-road emissions are provided in Table 12.

Table 12 Hayward Passenger On-Road Transportation Forecast Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast Results
Compliance with State legislation is expected to result in GHG emissions reduction from the BAU GHG Emissions Forecast in the transportation and energy sectors for residential and non-residential activities.

Compliance with both the Pavley regulation, which requires automakers to control GHG emission from new passenger vehicles for the 2009 through 2016 model years, and the Advanced Clean Car Program, which combines the control of smog-causing (criteria) pollutants and GHG emissions into a single package of regulations, are expected to reduce GHG emissions from transportation. Emissions associated with heavy-duty trucks and transit buses are also anticipated to be reduced through the Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation and Innovative Clean Transit, respectively. Compliance with Title 24 requirements are expected to reduce GHG emissions from reduced electricity and natural gas consumption in new buildings. Compliance with SB 100 requirements are expected to further reduce Growth Metric 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total VMT1 942,650,000 1,011,159,621 1,037,454,669 1,063,749,716 1,090,044,764 1,116,339,812 Passenger VMT1 859,527,091 927,615,232 951,249,744 974,884,257 998,518,769 1,022,153,281 Commercial
VMT1 77,472,909 77,865,740 80,345,435 82,825,129 85,304,824 87,784,519 Bus VMT1 5,650,000 5,678,649 5,859,490 6,040,331 6,221,172 6,402,012 Passenger EV
Share2 0.0% 6.9% 8.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.2%
Commercial EV
Share2 0.0% 0.7% 6.9% 17.6% 25.9% 27.5%
Bus EV Share2 0.0% 0.2% 14.1% 32.3% 47.3% 59.9%
Passenger ICE
Emission Factor
(MT CO2e/mile)

0.00035 0.00033 0.00030 0.00029 0.00028 0.00028
Commercial ICE
Emission Factor
(MT CO2e/mile)

0.00144 0.00134 0.00126 0.00122 0.00121 0.00121
Bus ICE Emission
Factor (MT
CO2e/mile)

0.00147 0.00136 0.00127 0.00121 0.00121 0.00114
Notes: VMT = vehicle miles traveled, EV = electric vehicle; ICE = internal combustion engine

1. Data for forecast years estimated by multiplying the growth indicator for VMT from the 2019 inventory multiplied by growth metric (i.e., households for passenger vehicles and service population for commercial and bus vehicles). Vehicle categories include the following vehicle types: Passenger (LDA, LDT1, LDT2, MCY, MDV, MH); Commercial (LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT); Buses (OBUS, SBUS, UBUS). Bus VMT presented here does not include Public Transit -AC Transit which is calculated separately as described in this memorandum.

2.Previous inventories did not separately account for electricity used for EV charging. In forecast years EV share by vehicle category was obtained from EMFAC2021 and applied to the respective vehicle category to estimate electricity used for EVs. The calculated electricity is subsequently removed from the electricity sector in the adjusted forecast to avoid double counting.

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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GHG emissions in the residential sector through reduced GHG emissions associated with electricity generation, as well as similar reductions in the commercial sector. SB 100 is also anticipated to reduced indirect electricity emissions associated with water and wastewater conveyance and treatment. A detailed summary of the projected GHG emissions under the adjusted forecast by sector and year through 2045 can be found in Table 13 .

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Table 13 Hayward Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast Detail Figure 2 presents the GHG emissions trends in terms of MT CO2e for the Adjusted forecast. Adjusted forecast emissions trend downward over time through 2045 with the decrease becoming more gradual between 2035 and 2045.

GHG Emissions Source 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Transportation
Passenger On-Road
Transportation 298,256 281,963 264,018 256,013 254,427 256,924 Commercial On-Road
Transportation 111,329 103,620 94,404 83,586 77,090 74,698 Bus On-Road
Transportation1 8,277 7,703 6,398 4,975 3,964 2,922
Off Road –
Transportation and
Equipment
24,287 26,818 29,084 31,274 33,662 28,177
Public Transit - BART 547 550 568 585 603 620
Public Transit - AC
Transit 4,308 4,010 3,324 2,581 2,056 1,519
Electricity2
Residential Electricity –
EV Adjusted 6,326 4,771 3,586 2,401 1,210 -
Non-Residential
Electricity -EV Adjusted 6,140 4,670 3,548 2,370 1,190 - Natural Gas
Residential Natural Gas 95,291 102,311 104,748 107,185 109,622 112,059 Non-Residential Natural
Gas 81,358 80,883 82,893 84,903 86,912 88,922
Water
Indirect Electricity from
Water Delivery 6 5 4 3 1 -
Wastewater
Indirect Electricity from
Wastewater Treatment 380 297 232 160 83 -
Direct Emissions from
Wastewater Treatment 1,702 1,719 1,779 1,839 1,899 1,959 Solid Waste
Solid Waste Generation 43,171 43,390 44,772 46,154 47,536 48,917 ADC Generation 3,015 3,030 3,127 3,223 3,320 3,416
TOTAL 684,395 665,743 642,486 627,251 623,574 620,134 Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding. All values are of the unit metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e)

1. Bus on-road transportation does not include public transit. Public transit is calculated separately.

2. Electricity associated with EV charging is captured in the transportation sector by vehicles class and has been removed from the electricity sector to avoid double counting of emissions.

City of Hayward
GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Figure 2 Hayward Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast (MT CO2e) through 2045

Table 14 provides the results summary of the GHG emissions forecast for Hayward, including the BAU GHG Emissions Forecast, the Adjusted GHG Forecast, and the expected percentage GHG emissions reduction based on compliance with State GHG legislation.

Table 14 Hayward GHG Emissions Forecast Results Summary 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Business-as-Usual Forecast 684,395 727,297 748,520 769,667 791,012 804,484 Transportation Reductions 0 -57,446 -99,031 -132,454 -154,504 -168,410 Title 24 Reductions 0 -1,212 -1,666 -2,136 -2,566 -2,962 SB 100 Reductions 0 -2,895 -5,337 -7,826 -10,367 -12,979 Legislative Adjusted Forecast 684,395 665,743 642,486 627,251 623,574 620,134 Percent Reduction in GHG
Emissions from Legislation

0.0% 8.5% 14.2% 18.5% 21.2% 22.9%
SB = Senate Bill; GHG = greenhouse gas
Hayward GHG Emissions Targets
GHG reduction targets are used in CAPs to establish measurable metrics intended to guide the community’s commitment to achieve GHG emissions reduction and help gauge progress with reducing emissions over time. GHG targets are developed relative to a baseline emissions level. California has established Statewide GHG reduction goals for 2030 and 2045. The CARB 2017 Scoping Plan recommends that local agencies provide their fair share GHG reduction to achieve the States goals.

Thus, local agencies are recommended to establish at a minimum, equivalent reduction targets at the local level by establishing communitywide GHG reduction goals for climate action that will help California achieve its 2030 and 2045 GHG emissions goals. -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Emissions ( MT CO2e)
Energy Transportation Solid Waste Water/Wastewater
City of Hayward
GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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GHG reduction targets can be set as either an efficiency target (MT CO2e per capita) or as a communitywide mass emissions target (total MT CO2e). With CARB’s 2017 Scoping Plan Update, California recommended using efficiency metrics for local targets to incentivize growth in a coordinated manner and not penalize cities which are growing at significant rates.12 Throughout this section, targets are discussed in terms of mass emissions reduction, as Hayward developed the targets initially as mass emissions targets and has primarily tracked emissions as mass emissions.

Hayward GHG Emissions Targets for 2025, 2030, and 2045
State climate legislation compares emissions reduction targets to a 1990 baseline. However, Hayward does not have a 1990 GHG inventory, and the targets developed by the City are instead compared to their 2005 baseline. In the 2006 AB 32 Scoping Plan, the recommended target for local governments to meet 1990 levels was 15 percent below “current” levels by 2020, where “current” levels were construed as baseline years between 2005-2008.13
The City has adopted the following targets using the 2005 GHG inventory as the baseline:
▪ Reduce GHG emissions to 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2025; ▪ Reduce GHG emissions to 55 percent below 2005 baseline levels by 2030; and ▪ Work with the community to develop a plan that may result in the reduction of community-based GHG emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

Hayward’s target of 55 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 is consistent with the California 2030 target of 40 percent below 1990 levels.

With GHG emission reduction targets in place, the reduction gap that Hayward will be responsible for through local action can be calculated. The CAP Update will assess the GHG emissions reduction gap based on the difference between the legislative adjusted GHG emissions forecast and the adopted Hayward GHG reduction targets. Table 15 provides a summary of the Hayward GHG emission reduction targets and gap in both mass emissions and per capita emissions metrics. The per capita targets aligned with Hayward’s targets are similarly calculated as the mass emission targets using the 2005 baseline mass emissions and City population in 2005 to establish a per capita baseline.

12 California Air Resources Board. 2017. California’s Climate Change Scoping Plan, p. 99-102. 13 Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR). 2017. General Plan Guidelines. Ch 8 Climate Change. p. 228. https://opr.ca.gov/docs/OPR_C8_final.pdf.

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GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Table 15 Summary of Hayward GHG Emission Reduction Targets and Gap Analysis Metric 2005 2019 20201 2025 20302 2035 2040 20452
Mass Emissions Target and Gap
Mass Emissions
Adjusted
Forecast (MT
CO2e)
973,244 684,395 693,697 665,743 642,486 627,251 623,574 620,134 City and SB 32
Mass Emissions
Target
(Pathway) (MT
CO2e)1,2
N/A N/A 778,595 681,271 437,960 291,973 145,987 -
Remaining
Emissions Gap
from State
targets (MT
CO2e)2
N/A N/A -84,898 -15,528 204,526 335,278 477,588 620,134 Per Capita Emissions City set Target and Gap
Population3 140,530 160,197 156,136 161,781 167,425 173,069 178,713 184,358 Per Capita
Adjusted
Forecast (MT
CO2e per capita)

6.9 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
Per Capita City
Targets (MT
CO2e per capita)
N/A N/A 5.5 4.8 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.0
Remaining Per
Capita Emissions
Gap (MT CO2e
per capita)
N/A N/A -1.1 -0.7 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.4
Notes: MT CO2e = Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent Emissions have been rounded to the nearest whole number and therefore sums may not match.

1. Hayward has set GHG reduction targets originally adopted with the 2009 CAP and 2014 General Plan that were slightly more aggressive than the State’s target set by AB 32.

2. As of 2019, the City has exceeded the City’s 2020 GHG reduction target of 20% reduction below 2005 GHG emissions levels, thereby exceeding the State’s 2020 target of 15% below 2005 levels (AB 32).

3. Population projections for the GHG inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018 , 2019) were obtained from MTC. Forecasted population projections obtained from Plan Bay Area 2040 and differ slightly.

Figure 3 provides a visual representation of past and future GHG emissions, with the impacts of State legislation. Figure 4 presents the remaining gap Hayward will be responsible for to the meet the GHG emission reduction targets. City targets as mass emissions and as efficiency targets converted to mass emissions are shown.

City of Hayward
GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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Figure 3 Past and Future GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets

Figure 4 GHG Emissions Gap Analysis

Plan to Meet the Targets
The 2025, 2030, and 2045 targets identified above would be achieved through a combination of existing California measures and implementation of local measures identified in the Hayward CAP Update. Local measures will be identified through a comprehensive assessment of existing local and regional policies, -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Emissions (MT CO2e)
BAU Forecast Adjusted Forecast
SB 32 Minimum (Mass Emissions) Hayward Targets (Mass Emissions) 2005 Baseline
55% below 2005 15% below 2005
Carbon Neutrality
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Emissions (MT CO2e)
BAU Forecast Adjusted Forecast
SB 32 Minimum (Mass Emissions) Hayward Targets (Mass Emissions) Emission Reductions
Needed to Reach
Targets
City of Hayward
GHG Forecast and Gap Analysis

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programs, and actions and by assessing any gaps and identifying additional opportunities. Additional measures will be developed from best practices of other similar and neighboring jurisdictions, as well as those recommended by organizations and agencies, such as the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA), the Office of Planning and Research, CARB’s 2017 Scoping Plan, and Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP). Measures will vetted by City staff, stakeholders, and the community and will be quantified to identify their overall contribution to meeting the City’s 2025, 2030, and 2045 GHG reduction targets in the Hayward CAP Update.

Appendix D
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Hayward Climate Action Plan
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures
Quantification and Evidence Appendix
prepared for
City of Hayward
777 B Street
Hayward, California 94541
Contact: Erik Pearson
prepared with the assistance of
Rincon Consultants, Inc.
449 15th Street, Suite 303
Oakland, California 94612
December 1, 2023

Table of Contents

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix i Table of Contents
1 GHG Measures Quantification Approach and Timeframe .............................................................. 1

1.1 GHG Measures Quantification Approach ........................................................................... 1

1.2 GHG Measures Quantification Timeframe ......................................................................... 1 2 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence ................................................................................. 4

2.1 Building Energy ................................................................................................................... 4

2.2 Transportation ..................................................................................................................26

2.3 Water ................................................................................................................................47

2.4 Waste ................................................................................................................................50

2.5 Carbon Sequestration .......................................................................................................56 3 Total GHG Measures Reduction Achievement .............................................................................62 Tables
Table 1 Hayward Existing and Projected Population ....................................................................... 2 Table 2 GHG Measures Reduction Quantification in 2030 and 2045 .............................................. 2 Table 3 Measure BE-1 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations ....................................................... 6 Table 4 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-1 ................................................. 7 Table 5 Measure BE-2 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations .....................................................10 Table 6 GHG Emissions Reductions Associated with Measure BE-2 .............................................11 Table 7 Measure BE-3 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations .....................................................15 Table 8 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-3 ...............................................17 Table 9 Measure BE-4 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations .....................................................20 Table 10 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-4 ...............................................22 Table 11 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure BE-5 ...............................................23 Table 12 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure BE-6 ...............................................24 Table 13 Measure T-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .........................................................29 Table 14 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-1 .................................................30 Table 15 Measure T-2 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .........................................................34 Table 16 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-2 .................................................34 Table 17 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-3 .................................................37 Table 18 Measure T-4 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .........................................................40 Table 19 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-4 .................................................40 Table 20 Measure T-5 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .........................................................42 Table 21 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-5 .................................................43 Table 22 Measure T-6 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .........................................................44 Table 23 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-6 .................................................45 Table 24 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-7 .................................................46 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

ii
Table 25 Measure WW-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations ...................................................48 Table 26 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure WW-1 ............................................49 Table 27 Measure SW-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .....................................................51 Table 28 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure SW-1 ..............................................51 Table 29 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure SW-2 ..............................................54 Table 30 Measure CS-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .......................................................57 Table 31 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure CS-1 ...............................................57 Table 32 Measure CS-2 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations .......................................................59 Table 33 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure CS-2 ...............................................60 Table 34 GHG Emissions Reductions and Targets ...........................................................................62

GHG Measures Quantification Approach and Timeframe

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 1 1 GHG Measures Quantification Approach
and Timeframe
The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines Section 15183.5(b) establishes criteria to guide the preparation of a “plan for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.” Subsection (D) notes that a CEQA Guideline-consistent greenhouse gas (GHG) Climate Action Plan (CAP) must include, “measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis, would collectively achieve the specified emissions level.” This appendix includes the CAP GHG reduction measures quantification approach, quantification, and substantial evidence.

1.1 GHG Measures Quantification Approach
GHG measures and actions can be either quantitative or supportive, defined as follows:
▪ Quantitative: When implemented, quantitative measures and actions result in quantifiable GHG emissions reductions. GHG emissions reduction were calculated using published evidence provided through adequately controlled investigations, studies, and articles carried out by qualified experts that establish the effectiveness for the reduction measures and actions. In this appendix, GHG emissions are quantified at the measure level rather than at the specific level of each action.
▪ Supportive: Supportive measures and actions may also be quantifiable and have substantial evidence to support their overall contribution to GHG reduction. However, due to one of several factors – including a low GHG reduction benefit, indirect GHG reduction benefit, or potential for double-counting– they have not been quantified and do not contribute directly to the total GHG reduction quantification. Despite not being quantified, supportive measures/actions are nevertheless critical to the overall success of the CAP and provide support so that the quantitative measures and actions will be successfully implemented.

1.2 GHG Measures Quantification Timeframe
This appendix provides estimates for GHG emissions reduction associated with the implementation of CAP measures and actions. These estimates are based on projected activity data for each source and relative emission factors. The GHG emissions reduction associated with the CAP measures and actions were calculated and compared to the adjusted 2030 and 2045 forecast to determine whether the City is anticipated to meet the established 2030 and 2045 targets. Table 1 shows Hayward’s existing (2019) and projected (2030 and 2045) population.1

1 Forecasted demographic data for Hayward is based on the Alameda CTC Zone from plan Bay Area 2040 and is consistent with the projections used for the Housing Element and traffic analysis conducted by Kittleson & Associates, Inc.

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

2 Table 1 Hayward Existing and Projected Population2
Year 2019 2030 2045
Population 160,197 167,425 184,358
Table 2 provides a summary of emissions reduction achieved by CAP measure as well as presents the total emissions reduction achieved on a mass emissions basis and a per capita basis using the population projections included in Table 1.

Table 2 GHG Measures Reduction Quantification in 2030 and 2045 Measure
ID Measure
Anticipated GHG Emissions
Reduction/Sequestration
(MT CO2e) in 2030
Anticipated GHG Emissions
Reduction/Sequestration
(MT CO2e) in 2045
BE-1 Continue the all-electric requirement for new
residential construction. Adopt an all-electric
requirement for new non-residential
construction to take effect by 2026.
5,393 MT CO2e 18,764 MT CO2e
BE-2 Electrify existing single-family residential
buildings in order to achieve 100
therms/person/year by 2030 and 0
therms/person in 2045.
13,874 MT CO2e 68,032 MT CO2e
BE-3 Decarbonize existing commercial and multi-
family buildings in order to achieve 53 therms
per service person in 2030 and 0 therms per
service person in 2045.
20,670 MT CO2e 114,220 MT CO2e
BE-4 Support Ava Community Energy in providing
100% carbon-free electricity by 2030.
4,802 MT CO2e 0 MT CO2e
BE-5 Continue to promote energy efficiency
improvement, in alignment with the existing
2014 Climate Action Plan (2014).

Supportive Supportive
BE-6 Generate on City facilities carbon-neutral
electricity meeting 80% of the City’s electricity
needs by 2030.

Supportive Supportive
T-1 Increase active transportation mode share to
15% by 2030 and to 20% by 2045.
6,485 MT CO2e 8,755 MT CO2e
T-2 Implement public and shared transit programs
to reduce communitywide VMT 15% by 2030
and 30% by 2045.
7,585 MT CO2e 25,092 MT CO2e

2 Association of Bay Area Governments & Metropolitan Transportation Commission. 2017. Plan Bay Area 2040: Final Regional Forecast of Jobs, Population and Housing. http://2040.planbayarea.org/files/2020- 02/Regional%20Forecast%20Supplemental%20%20Report_Final_7-2017_0.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023

GHG Measures Quantification Approach and Timeframe

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 3 Measure
ID Measure
Anticipated GHG Emissions
Reduction/Sequestration
(MT CO2e) in 2030
Anticipated GHG Emissions
Reduction/Sequestration
(MT CO2e) in 2045
T-3 Develop disincentives for driving single
passenger vehicles to support the
bicycle/pedestrian and public transit mode
share goals of Measures T-2 and T-3.

Supportive Supportive
T-4 Increase passenger zero-emission vehicle (ZEV)
adoption to 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2045.
16,014 MT CO2e 88,718 MT CO2e
T-5 Increase zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption
by businesses to 10% by 2030 and 80% by 2045
and decarbonize emergency and heavy-duty
vehicles as feasible.
3,161 MT CO2e 37,461 MT CO2e
T-6 Transition 15% of off-road equipment to zero-
emission by 2030 and 80% by 2045.
4,312 T CO2e 22,542 MT CO2e
T-7 Increase municipal passenger zero-emission
vehicle (ZEV) adoption to 75% by 2030 and
100% by 2045 and decarbonize emergency and
heavy-duty vehicles as feasible.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1 Implement and enforce SB 1383 requirements
to reduce communitywide landfilled organics by
75% by 2025 and 90% by 2045.
35,925 MT CO2e 47,101 MT CO2e
SW-2 Increase communitywide overall landfill
diversion of waste to 75% by 2030 and 85% by
2045.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1 Reduce water consumption by 15% by 2030 and
maintain it through 2045.
35 MT CO2e 0 MT CO2e
CS-1 Increase carbon sequestration by planting and
maintaining 1,000 new trees annually through
2030 to sequester carbon and create urban
shade to reduce heat island effect.
212 MT CO2e 743 MT CO2e
CS-2 Increase carbon sequestration by applying 0.08
tons of compost per capita annually in the
community through 2030 and 2045.
3,081 MT CO2e 3,392 MT CO2e
Total GHG Emissions Reduction 121,543 MT CO2e 434,784 MT CO2e Total GHG Emissions Reductions – per capita 0.73 MT CO2e/person 2.36 MT CO2e/person Percent Reductions from Adjusted Forecasted Emissions 19% 70%

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

4 2 GHG Measures Quantification and
Evidence
The CAP measures and actions are summarized by the overarching GHG reduction sector categories, which include:
▪ Building Energy
▪ Transportation
▪ Waste
▪ Water
▪ Carbon Sequestration
The following discussion is organized similarly and the substantial evidence for each quantifiable measure and action is detailed below.

2.1 Building Energy
Measure BE-1 Continue the all-electric requirement for new residential construction. Adopt an all-electric requirement for new non-residential construction to take effect by 2026.

Background
To reach carbon neutrality by 2045, most of the buildings in the City, including those that have not yet been constructed, will need to be carbon neutral. Electrification of new construction will eliminate the use of natural gas for space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking.

Natural gas combustion for heating and cooking in commercial and residential buildings is projected to account for 29 percent and 32 percent of the City’s total GHG emissions, for 2030 and 2045, respectively. 3 By transitioning buildings from the consumption of natural gas to electricity, emissions from this source can be reduced through Senate Bill (SB) 100 requirements for increased renewable electricity and the associated GHG emissions. A variety of studies have found that electrification of buildings, combined with renewable power generation is a potential path towards reaching carbon neutrality.4 Additionally, the benefits in annual utility bill savings and decreased cost associated with piping of natural gas into new construction makes all-electric buildings more cost effective in some California Building Climate Zones; including, Zone 3 and Zone 12, where

3 2019 Community GHG Inventory. See Appendix B of the CAP. 4 Williams, James et al., Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States (San Francisco: Energy and Environmental Economics, 2014); Northeastern Regional Assessment of Strategic Electrification (Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships, 2017); Steinberg, Daniel et al., Electrification and Decarbonization: Exploring US Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2017). Accessed June 27, 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 5 Hayward is located.5,6 As of June 2023, over 65 California cities have adopted all-electric only ordinances.7
Quantifiable GHG emissions reduction is associated with the implementation of Action BE-1.1, enforcing the Hayward Electrification Ordinance for new residential buildings banning natural gas and Action BE-1.2, establishing mandatory requirements to eliminate natural gas in all newly constructed building, by transitioning energy consumption from natural gas consumption to electricity. All other actions under Measure BE-1 would incrementally support the overall goal of the measure by sharing informational resources with the community to enhance awareness around the cost savings, environmental benefits, and health and safety benefits of all-electric construction (Actions BE-1.3, BE-1.4, BE-1.5, BE-1.6, BE-1.5, BE-1.8, and BE-1.9).

Methodology and Assumptions
Adoption of mandatory requirements to eliminate natural gas in all newly constructed buildings by 2026 would align with the California Building Code three-year cycle, stopping growth of natural gas consumption from new construction after 2026. The City’s existing all electric ordinance requires that, as of 2023, all newly constructed residential buildings eliminate natural gas for detached accessory dwelling units, single-family homes, condominium buildings, apartments, and mixed-use buildings. It also requires that all new non-residential buildings for which natural gas infrastructure is installed must be “electric ready,” meaning the wiring, electrical capacity, and physical space needed is provided to allow the building to be converted to an all-electric building in the future. 8 These new mandatory requirements will require that all new non-residential buildings eliminate natural gas by 2026. The amount of future new development that will occur in the City is evaluated based on increases in employment and population provided for the Alameda CTC Zone from plan Bay Area 2040 and is consistent with the projections used for the Housing Element and traffic analysis conducted by Kittleson & Associates, Inc. Data was provided for year 2020 and 2040, therefore interim years were linearly interpolated. To estimate demographic growth past 2040, the annual compound growth rate between 2020 and 2040 was applied to the demographic data to estimate demographic projections in 2045. This growth is assumed to be constant year-over-year in the GHG emissions forecast, with each additional resident’s or employee’s contribution towards natural gas consumption being equivalent to the per capita or per employment natural gas consumption in the 2019 Community GHG Inventory year, while also accounting for efficiency increases from future Title 24 requirements. The resulting calculated increase in natural gas consumption is conservative as it is assumed to be purely from new construction, and any increases beyond the time the ordinance is adopted would be shifted to electricity consumption.

Emissions reduction calculations assume mandatory requirements to eliminate natural gas in all newly constructed residential and non-residential buildings will be adopted by 2023 and 2026, respectively; therefore, increased natural gas consumption from population and employment growth beyond 2023 and 2026 would be replaced by electricity consumption. Since electric appliances are approximately three times more efficient over similar natural gas burning equipment and appliances, the use of electric equipment instead of natural gas would result in improved

5 California Energy Codes and Standards. 2022. Cost Effectiveness Study New Residential Building. https://explorer.localenergycodes.com/jurisdiction/hayward-city/summary. Accessed June 27, 2023 6 California Energy Codes and Standards. 2022. Cost Effectiveness Study New Nonresidential Building. https://explorer.localenergycodes.com/jurisdiction/hayward-city/summary. Accessed June 27, 2023 7 California Energy Codes and Standards. 2023. 2022 Code Cycle Locally Adopted Energy Ordinances. https://localenergycodes.com/content/adopted-ordinances. Accessed June 27, 2023 8 City of Hayward. Reach Code. 2023. https://www.hayward-ca.gov/reach- code#:~:text=The%20new%20Reach%20Code%20requires,apartments%20and%20mixed%2Duse%20buildings.Accessed July 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

6 energy efficiency and a reduction in overall energy consumption for replaced natural gas equipment.9,10,11 The electricity consumption would generate GHG emissions that would partially offset the reduction in natural gas emissions from electrification. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emissions reduction from Measure BE-1 are provided in Table 3.

Table 3 Measure BE-1 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations Year 2030 2045
Residential Reductions
Adjusted Forecast Residential NG usage (therms)1 19,724,708 21,101,309 NG usage in implementation year (therms) 19,082,294 19,082,294 NG usage avoided (therms) 642,414 2,019,015
Emissions from NG usage avoided (MT CO2e)2 3,412 10,722 Electricity usage from converting to electric (kWh)3 6,274,478 19,719,788 Residential weighted electricity Emissions Factor (MT
CO2e/kWh)4

0.0000028 0
Emissions from converted electricity usage (MT CO2e) 17 0 Residential emission reductions (MT CO2e) 3,394 10,722 Commercial Reductions
Adjusted Commercial NG usage (therms)1 15,609,224 16,744,501 NG usage in implementation year (therms) 15,230,798 15,230,798 NG usage avoided (therms) 378,426 1,513,703
Emissions from NG usage avoided (MT CO2e)2 2,010 8,039 Electricity usage from converting to electric (kWh)3 3,696,098 14,784,390 Commercial weighted electricity EF (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.0000031 0 Emissions from converted electricity usage (MT CO2e) 12 0 Commercial emission reductions (MT CO2e) 1,997 8,039 Total Reductions (MT CO2e) 5,392 18,761
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour

1. Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.

2. Based on an emission factor of 0.00531051 MT CO2e/therms, per EPA’s Emission Factors for Greenhouse Gas Inventories. https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-07/documents/emission-factors_2014.pdf

3. Based on a conversion factor of 29.3001 kWh/therms and the assumption that electric appliances are generally three times more efficient than gas appliances. https://help.leonardo-energy.org/hc/en-us/articles/203047881-How-efficient-is-a-heat-pump-.

4. Weighted electricity emission factors were developed for residential and non-residential uses and incorporate the differing current opt-out rates for residential (5% opt-out) and non-residential (6% opt-out) sectors. Additionally, the emission factor used assumes implementation of Measure BE-4 to avoid double counting of GHG emission reductions. *Values may not add up due to rounding

9 According to the EIA 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, electric heat pumps for commercial space heating and cooling are two to five times more efficient than natural gas fueled equipment. EIA. 2020. Annual Energy Outlook. Table 22. Commercial Sector Energy Consumption, Floorspace, Equipment Efficiency, and Distributed Generation. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=32- AEO2020&cases=ref2020&sourcekey=0. Accessed June 27, 2023. 10 Residential electric heat pumps for space heating and cooling are six to 20 times more efficient than natural gas equipment. EIA. 2020.

Annual Energy Outlook. Table 21. Residential Sector Equipment Stock and Efficiency, and Distributed Generation. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=30-AEO2020&cases=ref2020&sourcekey=0. Accessed June 27, 2023. 11 Dennis, Keith. 2015. Environmentally Beneficial Electrification: Electricity as the End-Use Option. The Electricity Journal. 28(9). pp. 100- 112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2015.09.019. Accessed June 27, 2023.

GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 7 Table 4 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-1 Action
ID Pillar Action
Emissions Reduction
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-1.1 Structural Change Continue to enforce the adopted Hayward Electrification Ordinance for new residential buildings banning natural gas.
5,392 18,761
BE-1.2 Structural Change Adopt an ordinance, reach code, or zero NOx threshold, effective January 1, 2026, that establishes mandatory
requirements that all newly constructed buildings avoid natural gas use by 2026.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.3 Education/Funding Compile case studies conducted by BayREN, the Building Decarbonization Coalition and other relevant sources that show cost effective strategies for electric buildings by prototype and detail the cost savings associated with all- electric construction. Share the information on the City’s website.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.4 Education/
Partnership
Partner with BayREN to provide/share technical
resources, including hosting workforce development
training for installers, local contractors, and building owners/operators, to discuss benefits and technical
requirements of electrification within Hayward. Promote the cost savings, environmental benefits, and versatility of electrification to builders, property owners, and
contractors on the City website and at the City permit
counters.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.5 Partnerships/Equity Engage with stakeholders, both internal stakeholders, such as City staff and officials, and external stakeholders, such as local developers and community groups regarding the purpose and impact of the Hayward Electrification
Reach Code and to identify equity concerns.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.6 Partnership Engage with an organization such as Building Decarbonization Coalition to work with local building
industry stakeholders in educating developers and other stakeholders on new appliances and approaches to
building electrification.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.7 Feasibility Studies Partner with Ava Community Energy to conduct an electrification infrastructure and capacity feasibility study to identify expected increases in electricity demand due to building and vehicle electrification, ensure capacity to meet that demand, and identify any infrastructure
improvements.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.8 Feasibility Studies Utilize the Low Carbon Concrete Code Amendment Toolkit and review current best practices to develop
implementation strategies, compliance forms, and
specifications for compliant mixes.

Supportive Supportive
BE-1.9 Education Promote the use of low carbon concrete in construction projects (residential and commercial). Coordinate with the California Air Resources Board as they develop rules and guidance pursuant to AB2446.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

8 Measure BE-2 Electrify existing single-family residential buildings in order to achieve 100 therms/person/year by 2030 and 0 therms/person in 2045.

Background
In the 2019 Community Inventory, residential (single-family and multi-family) natural gas usage is about 112 therms/person/year and accounts for 14 percent of the City’s total GHG emissions.

Through Measure BE-2, the City commits to electrifying existing single-family residential buildings.

Action BE-2.1 and BE-2.2 commit the City to adopting an existing single-family residential building decarbonization ordinance by 2026 to eliminate expansion of natural gas infrastructure and require decarbonization of appliances, upon replacement. These actions also commit the City to adopting an ordinance requiring existing single-family homes to be 100 percent electric by 2045. The 2026 decarbonization ordinance will establish mandatory requirements eliminating expansion of natural gas in existing single-family residential buildings. HVAC system and hot water heaters should be targeted in the ordinance due to their large contribution to residential natural gas end-uses and the cost-effectiveness associated with their replacement on burnout.12 To support this, Action BE-2.3 commits the City to adopting a time of retrofit ordinance that requires all buildings with retrofit work that meet a certain threshold, to complete energy efficiency/electrification actions, to be part of the 2026 ordinance. Additionally, before adopting an existing single-family residential building decarbonization ordinance, the City will develop a single-family residential building electrification feasibility study (Action BE-2.5), to better understand cost implications, equity concerns, and potential strategies to address those concerns whilst implementing an ordinance.

While there is substantial momentum and resources behind electrification of existing buildings, some approaches are still being clarified through the legal process. On April 17, 2023, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals determined an ordinance enacted by the City of Berkeley that prohibited gas piping in new construction was preempted by the federal Energy Policy and Conservation Act (“EPCA”). Preemption generally means that a law or rule of an inferior government entity is of no effect if it is in conflict with a law or rule of a superior government entity. Among other things, the EPCA preempts state and local regulations concerning the energy use of covered appliances. The term covered appliances includes appliances such as water heaters, furnaces, clothes dryers, and kitchen ranges. As of July 2023, Berkeley has the opportunity request further review by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals or the United States Supreme Court. However, neither the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals nor the United States Supreme Court is obligated to entertain any additional review. An existing single-family residential building decarbonization ordinance is a foundational measure in the City’s CAP. However, as the City of Berkeley is anticipated to appeal the Ninth Circuit’s ruling, the legal support for some ordinance types remains uncertain. Based on the findings of this or other rulings, the City should continue to adapt its approach to decarbonization.

In addition to efforts regarding structural changes and feasibility studies, the City will work to identify further electrification measures that can be implemented to reach the long-term target of electrifying 100 percent of the buildings in the City, through continued partnerships with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD), local realtors and contractors, Bay Area Regional Energy Network (BayREN), Ava Community Energy (ACE), Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), BlocPower, and StopWaste (Actions BE-2.6, BE-2.4, BE-2.7, BE-2.11, BE-2.12, and BE-2.14). Partnerships and engagement efforts will range from developing a comprehensive building code and compliance training program to discuss benefits and technical requirements of electrification (Action BE-2.6) to

GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 9 conducting engagement efforts targeting low-income communities of color to better understand the community’s concerns around electrification and provide guidance (Action BE-2.8 and Action BE-2.10). Action BE-2.13 seeks to provide funding options to disadvantaged community members while Action BE-2.9 commits the City to partnering with the Hayward Below Market Rate (BMR) housing stock owners to develop a plan to electrify all BMR housing by 2045. The impacts associated with promotional and educational outreach for electrification have not been well documented due to the cutting-edge nature of the strategy. Electrification as a GHG reduction strategy has only begun to gain traction in California mostly due to the implementation of SB 100 and the expansion of community choice aggregations. While it is not clear how the community will respond to electrification, energy efficiency outreach has been conducted since as early as the 1970’s and some research has been conducted on the effects of outreach and education on energy. One study in New York showed that out of the 8,991 people who participated in informational programs, 69 percent implemented the recommended practices.13 Another research meta-analysis reviewed dozens of papers covering various energy efficiency, water efficiency, and waste outreach and found that education-only campaigns could produce between 10-12 percent energy savings.14 Due to the City’s recent leadership in adopting and implementing reach codes, including the new residential building natural gas ban (Action BE-1.1), it is anticipated that community members will comply with electrification efforts.

Methodology and Assumptions
Natural gas usage from existing residential buildings accounted for 14 percent of emissions in the City in 2019. Based on 2021 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey estimates for Hayward, approximately 67 percent of housing units in the City are considered single-family.

Therefore, it was assumed for this calculation that 67 percent of natural gas usage and associated emissions from existing residential buildings was attributed to single-family buildings specifically.15 GHG emission reduction calculations were developed assuming the implementation of BE-1.1, starting in 2023, for residential buildings. GHG emissions reductions were calculated based on the percentage of natural gas attributed to water heaters, HVAC systems, and stoves, the average lifespan of each natural gas consuming devices, as seen in Table 5. Based on information from the United State Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average gas-fire water heater, HVAC, and stovetop were assumed to be 13, 21.5, and 12 years, respectively. Although studies indicate that permit compliance for appliances ranges from 10-25 percent, regardless of permit status, there is generally a high compliance rate with mandatory requirements related to energy efficiency. The ordinances developed through this measure, the efforts by BAAQMD to require zero-NOx appliances, incentive programs available and the increasing affordability and efficiency of electric appliances over natural gas appliances all will contribute to a high replacement rate of natural gas appliances with electric at time of burnout. Therefore, it is assumed that approximately 94 percent of the time, natural gas equipment would be replaced with an electric alternative. Calculations for Measure BE-2 also assumed that 38 percent, 39 percent, and 9 percent of residential natural gas usage comes from water heaters, space heating/cooling, and cooking, respectively. Natural gas saved after ordinance implementation was converted to electricity usage (i.e., therms converted to

13 https://www.joe.org/joe/2009december/pdf/JOE_v47_6a6.pdf 14Skumatiz Economic Research Associated Inc. N.d. Evaluating the Impacts of Education/Outreach Programs Lessons On Impacts, Methods, and Optimal Education https://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2000/data/papers/SS00_Panel8_Paper10.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023
15 Single-family residential share of the residential units in Hayward was calculated to be 33 percent, based on the 1-unit detached and 1- unit attached totals presented in the DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics Census 2021 American Community Survey Table. https://data.census.gov/table?g=040XX00US06_160XX00US0633000&d=ACS+5-Year+Estimates+Data+Profiles&tid=ACSDP5Y2021.DP04 .

Accessed June 27, 2023
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

10 kWh). Since electric appliances are approximately three times more efficient over similar natural gas burning equipment and appliances,16 the use of electric equipment instead of natural gas would result in improved energy efficiency and a reduction in overall energy consumption for replaced natural gas equipment. A weighted electricity emissions factor assuming implementation of Measure BE-4 was used to calculate GHG emission associated with electricity usage. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emissions reduction from Measure BE-2 are provided in Table 5.

Table 5 Measure BE-2 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Residential NG usage after new building electrification ordinance is implemented (therms)1
19,082,294 19,082,294
Percentage of homes with replaced water heaters, assuming some non-compliance2 29% 94% NG reduction from water heater replacement (%)3 11% 35% Percentage of homes with replaced HVAC, assuming some non-compliance4 17% 83% NG reduction from HVAC replacement (%)5 7% 32%
Percentage of homes with replaced stoves, assuming some non-compliance6 31% 94% NG reduction from stove replacement (%)7 3% 8%
Total percent reduction of NG/% of existing buildings electrified (%) 20% 100% Total NG saved (therms) 3,911,403 19,082,294
Emissions from total NG saved (MT CO2e)8 20,775 101,355 Electricity usage from converting to electric (kWh)9 38,201,496 186,371,042 Weighted residential electricity Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)10 0.0000028 0 Emissions from converted electricity usage (MT CO2e) 105 0 Total Residential Reductions (MT CO2e) 20,670 101,355
Percentage of housing units that are single-family residential 11 67% 67% Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 13,872 68,020

Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour 1 Assumes implementation of Measure BE-1.
2 Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average gas-fire water heat lifespan of 13 years, per EIA.

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023 3 Assumes 38 percent of natural gas usage comes from water heaters, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.
4 Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average HVAC lifespan of 21.5 years, per EIA. Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023 5 Assumes 39 percent of natural gas usage comes from HVAC, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.
6 Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average stovetop lifespan of 12 years, per EIA. Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023 7 Assumes 6 percent of natural gas usage comes from cooking, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.

16 Dennis, Keith. 2015. Environmentally Beneficial Electrification: Electricity as the End-Use Option. The Electricity Journal. 28(9). pp. 100- 112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2015.09.019. Accessed June 27, 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 11 Calculation Factor 2030 2045
8 Assumes a NG emission factor of 0.005311 (MT CO2e/therm), per EPA’s Emission Factors for Greenhouse Gas Inventories. https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-07/documents/emission-factors_2014.pdf. 9 Assumes a conversion factor of 29.3 (kwh/therm) and that electric equipment is three times as efficient as natural gas, per European Copper Institute. 2018. Heat Pumps Integrating technologies to decarbonize heating and cooling. https://help.leonardo- energy.org/hc/en-us/article_attachments/360010981780/ehpa-white-paper-111018.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023 10 Electricity Emission Factor is weighted to account for opt-out rates of residential customers and assumes implementation of BE-4. 11 Single-family residential share of the residential units in Hayward was calculated to be 67 percent, based on the 1-unit detached and 1-unit attached totals presented in the DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics Census 2021 American Community Survey Table. https://data.census.gov/table?g=040XX00US06_160XX00US0633000&d=ACS+5- Year+Estimates+Data+Profiles&tid=ACSDP5Y2021.DP04 . Accessed June 27, 2023 *Values may not add up due to rounding ( ) denotes negative

Table 6 GHG Emissions Reductions Associated with Measure BE-2 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emissions Reduction
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-2.1 Structural Change Once costs and funding/financing options are identified (BE-2.5), adopt a decarbonization ordinance
for existing single-family residential buildings by 2026 that, based on legislative feasibility, establishes
mandatory requirements that eliminates expansion of
natural gas infrastructure, and requires appliances,
upon replacement, to be decarbonized where
technologically feasible and cost effective.
13,872 68,020
BE-2.2 Structural Change Adopt an ordinance requiring existing single-family homes to be 100% all-electric by 2045.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.3 Structural Charge Adopt a time of retrofit ordinance that requires all buildings with retrofit work who meet a certain
threshold, to complete energy
efficiency/electrification actions. To be part of reach code to take effect January 2026.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.4 Structural
Change/Partnership
Work with community stakeholders including realtors
and contractors to develop electrification readiness
requirements to be completed within 120 days of
completion of a home sale. Include a potential waiver
process for distressed sales.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.5 Feasibility Studies Develop a single-family residential building electrification feasibility study with a detailed existing building analysis and electrification costs analysis to understand cost implications, identify potential equity concerns/impacts, and develop strategies to electrify
existing buildings such that natural gas usage in single- family residential buildings is reduced by 10% by 2030.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.6 Partnership Support BAAQMD’s efforts to require zero-NOx furnaces and water heaters at time of replacement
with compliant technologies such as electric heat
pumps. Advocate that BAAQMD ensure discounted
electric appliances are offered to lower income
households and upfront rebates are available.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

12 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emissions Reduction
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-2.7 Partnership/
Education
Partner with BayREN, Ava Community Energy and
StopWaste to work with the local contractors, realtors, homeowner associations, and labor unions to develop
a comprehensive building code and compliance
training program, including hosting workforce
development trainings discussing the benefits and
technical requirements of electrification.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.8 Education Conduct engagement efforts for the general public and targeted to low-income communities of color
during development of the electrification strategy to
understand the community's concerns around
electrification.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.9 Equity Partner with Hayward Below Market Rate (BMR) housing stock owners (such as Eden Housing) to
commit to electrifying all BMR housing by 2045.

Establish a plan, financing strategies, and schedule for implementing this action by 202617
Supportive Supportive
BE-2.10 Equity Identify and partner with local community-based organizations with connections to low-income
communities of color to assist in development of the
electrification strategy
Supportive Supportive
BE-2.11 Partnership/Funding Devote staff time to collaborate with PG&E, Ava Community Energy, and other cities in the region to
advocate for regulatory changes at the State level
(e.g., CARB) to allow neighborhood level electrification and pruning of natural gas to reduce the change of
stranded asset, provide potential funding, and
establish and efficient transition to carbon neutral
buildings.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.12 Partnership/Funding Work with Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), and Ava Community Energy (ACE) to conduct a feasibility study
assessing the cost and funding strategy for
incentivizing all-electric retrofits through on-bill
financing.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.13 Equity Review incentives, rebates, and financing options for procedural equity and ensure that existing and
updated incentive programs are being equitably
distributed to the community. Hurdles to equitable
implementation could include credit checks, excessive
procedural hurdles and lack of targeted outreach.

Supportive Supportive
BE-2.14 Partnerships Partner with a financing/management company such as BlocPower to provide electrification services and
financing to the community with prioritization of
historically under-invested communities.

Supportive Supportive

17 https://www.hayward-ca.gov/services/city-services/finding-affordable-housing GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 13 Measure BE-3 Decarbonize existing commercial and multi-family buildings in order to achieve 53 therms per service person in 2030 and 0 therms per service person in 2045.

Background
In line with Measure BE-2, the City is committed to decarbonizing existing commercial and multi- family buildings through the adoption of building decarbonization requirements requiring electrification building retrofits and electric appliances.

Through Action BE-3.4, the City commits to developing a commercial and multi-family residential building electrification feasibility study, outlining costs, equity concern/impacts, and strategies to reduce natural gas usage and support future adoption of a commercial and multi-family building decarbonization ordinance. Actions BE-3.1 and BE-3.2 commit the City to adopting a decarbonization ordinance by 2026 for commercial and multi-family buildings separately to eliminate expansion of natural gas infrastructure and require decarbonization of appliances, upon replacement for multi-family and commercial building. The 2026 decarbonization ordinances establish mandatory requirements eliminating expansion of natural gas in existing commercial and multi-family buildings. Information regarding systems and appliances targeted in the ordinances and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals is described above in the Measure BE-2 background section.

Through Action BE-3.3, the City will adopt a commercial energy performance assessment and disclosure ordinance for commercial and multi-family buildings, requiring energy disclosure consistent with State law and the use of ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool. The City will work to identify further electrification measures that can be implemented to reach the long-term target of electrifying 100 percent of the buildings in the City, through partnering with electrification experts to provide guidance to commercial building owners (Action BE-3.5) and developing education campaigns to promote commercial electrification, targeting builders, developers, local contractors, and property managers and advertising electric appliance rebates and incentives (Action BE-3.6) . The City will also conduct targeted outreach to small business and minority-owned business to understand equity challenges associated with building decarbonization and will partner with BayRen, ACE, and StopWaste to continue to provide rebates and other financing option (Action BE-3.7 and Action BE-3.9). Through Action BE-3.8, the City will conduct a feasibility study to evaluate the current effectiveness of Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for installation of renewable energy systems in commercial and industrial properties. If found effective through the study the City should continue to provide this financing option. As outlined above for Measure BE-2, studies show that education and engagement around energy efficiency has historically led to increased implementation of recommended practices and ultimately resulted in energy savings.

Methodology and Assumptions
Calculations used for Measure BE-2 were similarly used to quantify the GHG emission reductions associated with implementation of Measure BE-3. Based on 2021 U.S. Census American Community Survey estimates for Hayward, approximately 33 percent of housing units in the City are considered to be multi-family units. Emissions reduction calculations were developed for multi-family City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

14 residential buildings in alignment with this percentage.18 The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emissions reduction from Measure BE-3 are provided in Table 7.

18 Multi-family residential share of the residential units in Hayward was calculated to be 33 percent, based on the 2-unit or greater totals presented in the DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics Census 2021 American Community Survey Table. https://data.census.gov/table?g=040XX00US06_160XX00US0633000&d=ACS+5-Year+Estimates+Data+Profiles&tid=ACSDP5Y2021.DP04 .

Accessed June 27, 2023
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 15 Table 7 Measure BE-3 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Multi-Family Residential
Residential NG usage after new building electrification ordinance is implemented (therms)1
19,082,294 19,082,294
Percentage of homes with replaced water heaters, assuming some non-compliance2 29% 94% NG reduction from water heater replacement (%)3 11% 35% Percentage of homes with replaced HVAC, assuming some non-compliance4 17% 83% NG reduction from HVAC replacement (%)5 7% 32%
Percentage of homes with replaced stoves, assuming some non-compliance6 31% 94% NG reduction from stove replacement (%)7 3% 8%
Total percent reduction of NG/% of existing buildings electrified (%) 20% 100% Total NG saved (therms) 3,911,403 19,082,294
Emissions from total NG saved (MT CO2e)8 20,775 101,355 Electricity usage from converting to electric (kWh)9 38,201,496 186,371,042 Weighted residential electricity Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)10 0.0000028 0 Emissions from converted electricity usage (MT CO2e) 105 0 Total Residential Reductions (MT CO2e) 20,666 101,337
Percentage of housing units that are multi-family residential 11 33% 33% Total Multi-Family Residential Reductions (MT CO2e) 6,794 33,317 Commercial
Commercial NG usage after new building electrification ordinance is implemented (therms)1
15,230,798 15,230,798
Percentage of buildings with replaced water heaters, assuming some non- compliance12
38% 94%
NG reduction from water heater replacement (%)13 10% 26% Percentage of commercial buildings with replaced HVAC, assuming some non- compliance14
16% 78%
NG reduction from HVAC replacement (%)15 7% 32%
Total percent reduction of NG (%) 17% 100%
Total NG saved (therms) 2,628,232 15,230,798
Emissions from total NG saved (MT CO2e)8 13,960 80,898 Electricity usage from converting to electric (kWh)9
25,669,157

148,754,636
Weighted commercial electricity EF (MT CO2e/kWh)10 0.0000033 0 Emissions from converted electricity usage (MT CO2e) 85 0 Total Commercial Reductions (MT CO2e) 13,872 80,883
Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 20,667 114,200 Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour

1. Assumes implementation of Measure BE-1.

2. Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average gas-fire water heat lifespan of 13 years, per EIA.

16 Calculation Factor 2030 2045

3. Assumes 38 percent of natural gas usage comes from water heaters, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.

4. Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average HVAC lifespan of 21.5 years, per EIA. Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023

5. Assumes 39 percent of natural gas usage comes from HVAC, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.

6. Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average stovetop lifespan of 12 years, per EIA. Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023

7. Assumes 6 percent of natural gas usage comes from cooking, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.

8. Assumes a NG emission factor of 0.005311 (MT CO2e/therm), per EPA’s Emission Factors for Greenhouse Gas Inventories. https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-07/documents/emission-factors_2014.pdf.

9. Assumes a conversion factor of 29.3 (kwh/therm) and that electric equipment is three times as efficient as natural gas, per European Copper Institute. 2018. Heat Pumps Integrating technologies to decarbonize heating and cooling. https://help.leonardo- energy.org/hc/en-us/article_attachments/360010981780/ehpa-white-paper-111018.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023

10. Electricity Emission Factor is weighted to account for the specific opt-out rates of residential and non-residential customers and assumes implementation of BE-4.

11. Single-family residential share of the residential units in Hayward was calculated to be 67 percent, based on the 1-unit detached and 1-unit attached totals presented in the DP04 Selected Housing Characteristics Census 2021 American Community Survey Table. https://data.census.gov/table?g=040XX00US06_160XX00US0633000&d=ACS+5- Year+Estimates+Data+Profiles&tid=ACSDP5Y2021.DP04. Accessed June 27, 2023

12. Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average gas-fire water heat lifespan of 10 years, per EIA.

Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf. Access June 27, 2023

13. Assumes 28 percent of natural gas usage comes from water heaters, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.

14. Assumes electrification ordinance implementation year of 2026 and average HVAC lifespan of 23 years, per EIA. Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/pdf/full.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023

15. Assumes 42 percent of natural gas usage comes from HVAC, per Synapse. 2018. Decarbonization of Heating Energy Use in California Buildings. https://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/Decarbonization-Heating-CA-Buildings-17-092-1.pdf.

Access June 27, 2023.
*Values may not add up due to rounding () denotes negative

GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 17 Table 8 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-3 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-3.1 Structural
Change
Based on the results of the feasibility studies (BE- 3.4) adopt a decarbonization ordinance for existing commercial buildings by 2026 that, based on legislative feasibility, establishes mandatory requirements that eliminates expansion of natural gas infrastructure and requires appliances, upon replacement, to be decarbonized where technologically feasible and cost effective. As part of this ordinance, implement the following steps:

1. Develop requirements that satisfy the federal
Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) seven
criteria for an exemption from preemption;

2. Establish specific metrics for standard
benchmarking;

3. Identify a regulatory mechanism for eliminating
natural gas use in existing commercial buildings that
addresses legal and feasibility considerations; and

4. Enforce requirement compliance through the same
permitting compliance program as for residential
building electrification.

20,667 114,200
BE-3.2 Structural
Change
Based on the results of the feasibility studies (BE- 3.4) adopt a decarbonization ordinance for existing multi-family buildings by 2026 that, based on legislative feasibility, establishes mandatory requirements that eliminates expansion of natural gas infrastructure and requires appliances, upon replacement, to be decarbonized where technologically feasible and cost effective. As part of this ordinance, implement the following steps:

1. Develop requirements that satisfy the federal
Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) seven
criteria for an exemption from preemption;

2. Establish specific metrics for standard
benchmarking;

3. Identify a regulatory mechanism for eliminating
natural gas use in existing multi-family buildings that addresses legal and feasibility considerations; and

4. Enforce requirement compliance through the same
permitting compliance program as for residential
building electrification.

1. Supportive Supportive
BE-3.3 Structural
Change
Adopt a Commercial Energy Performance Assessment and
Disclosure Ordinance for commercial and multi-family
buildings, which requires energy use disclosure consistent with State law (AB 1103) and the use of the ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

18 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-3.4 Feasibility
Studies
Conduct feasibility studies to identify commercial and multi- family building decarbonization barriers and develop a
commercial and multi-family building decarbonization
strategy with analysis supporting future adoption of a
commercial and multi-family building decarbonization
ordinance.

Supportive Supportive
BE-3.5 Education/
Partnership
Partner with an electrification/efficiency expert to provide guidance to commercial buildings covered by the building performance standard.

Supportive Supportive
BE-3.6 Education Develop an education campaign to promote commercial electrification and include items in the program such as:
▪ Continue to engage with local business
and business organizations (e.g., Chamber
of Commerce, the Alameda County Green
Business Program) to inform and facilitate
electrification for commercial business
owners.
▪ Continue to promote the use of the
Energy Star Portfolio Manager program
and energy benchmarking training
programs for nonresidential building
owners.
▪ Advertise via utility bill inserts the
incentive programs or grants available and
the cost benefits of electric appliances.
▪ Targeted outreach to builders, developers,
local contractors, and property managers
with an informational brochure describing
the financial benefits of replacing natural
gas appliances with all electric appliances
when they apply for permits.
▪ Provide informational webinars and an
updated website to advertise and
promote All-Electric Building Initiative
rebates and incentives.

Supportive Supportive
BE-3.7 Equity Conduct outreach to small businesses and minority-owned businesses to understand potential equity impacts of a
decarbonization policy as part of the existing building decarbonization study.

Supportive Supportive
BE-3.8 Funding Conduct feasibility study to evaluate the current uptake and effectiveness of Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE)
financing for installation of renewable energy systems in commercial and industrial properties. If feasibility study indicates effectiveness, continue to offer PACE financing for commercial and industrial properties to install renewable energy systems.

Supportive Supportive
BE-3.9 Partnerships Continue to work with Bay Area Regional Energy Network (BayREN), ACE, and StopWaste to continue to improve and implement commercial electrification rebates and financing opportunities and other offered incentives.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 19 Measure BE-4: Support Ava Community Energy in providing 100% carbon- free electricity by 2030
Background
Electricity in the City is currently supplied by Ava Community Energy (ACE) and Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E). PG&E provides a power mix with 39 percent renewable resources, and 89 percent GHG free overall (including nuclear and large hydro).19 While the portion of renewables in PG&E’s grid mix is relatively high compared to other utility providers in the state, the emission factor associated with its electricity is not expected to decrease to zero until the state-mandated year of 2045, due to SB 100. In order to reduce GHG emissions in the short-term, the City will provide 100 percent carbon free electricity to the community through ACE, City’s Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) energy provider by 2030. In general, CCAs use the purchasing power of the community to procure electricity directly from electricity generators. This allows the community to choose its own grid mix, with an option to procure electricity from 100 percent carbon free renewable generation sources.

PG&E will continue to deliver power, maintain lines and infrastructure, and coordinate billing. ACE currently provides two power mix options20 for residents to choose from:
▪ Bright Choice: Base option with 42.3% eligible renewable energy, with prices five percent below PG&E rates
▪ Renewable 100: 100% eligible renewable option. Price is 1/4 cent per kilowatt hour above PG&E rates.

To maximize the GHG reduction opportunity this presents, the City will continue to automatically enroll all community accounts in Renewable 100 (Action BE-4.1), as many cities in California have already done today.21 The Hayward City Council voted to set the default electricity option for City residents, except low-income residents, and businesss to ACE’s Renewable 100 service, starting in January 2022.22Although, ACEis planning on Bright Choice being 100 percent carbon free by 2030.

Customers have the option to opt-out of the CCA back to PG&E or opt-down to another grid mix option. Currently, about 5 percent of Hayward residential customers and 6 percent of commercial customers currently choose to opt-out of the ACEprograms.23 Action BE-4.2 will focus on conducting outreach and educating citizens about the benefits of opting in to ACE electricity. Purchasing 100 percent carbon free electricity through ACE is one of the most cost-effective actions the City can take to meaningfully reduce GHG emissions within the City. The cost of opting up into carbon free electricity with ACE is five percent below the PG&E rate and 100 percent renewable rates with both PG&E and ACE are only a few dollars a month extra for most residential rate schedules.24 However, even a small increase on monthly bills can make a big difference for the most vulnerable populations. Both PG&E and ACE provides a CARE rate schedule for low-income households. Action BE-4.3 commits the City to ensuring no cost increase to CARE/FERA customers, potentially through subsidization cost to CARE/FERA customers to be funded by a rate increase for non-discounted customers. Action BE-4.4 requires the City to work with ACEto conduct a feasibility study to

19 PG&E. 2021. Power Mix. https://www.pge.com/en_US/about-pge/environment/what-we-are-doing/clean-energy-solutions/clean- energy-solutions.page?WT.mc_id=Vanity_cleanenergy. Accessed June 27 2023. 20 EBCE. 2023. Compare Your Options. https://ebce.org/compare-plans-residential/. Accessed June 27, 2023. 21 UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation. 2019. https://innovation.luskin.ucla.edu/2019/09/04/50-cities-are-quietly-leading-the-nations-100- clean-energy-wave/. Accessed June 27, 2023
22 EBCE. Hayward is Going Green with 100% Renewable Energy. https://ebce.org/hayward/. Accessed July 19,2023 23 Opt-out rates were calculated based on electricity data included in the 2019 Hayward Community Inventory. 24 PG&E – EBCE Join Rate Comparisons. 2023. https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/customer-service/other- services/alternative-energy-providers/community-choice-aggregation/ebce_rateclasscomparison.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

20 understand reason for opt outs and to track changes in rates, which can in-turn allow for more targeted efforts to reduce opt-out rates over time.

Methodology and Assumptions
The GHG reduction quantification below is based on the forecasted electricity consumption under the adjusted forecast as well as the forecasted electricity emission factor in each year. Additional electricity load expected from Measure BE-1, BE-2, and BE-3 is not included here due to reductions for Measure BE-4 being accounted for in each measure’s respective quantification. It is assumed in all other electrification measures that the City completes this measure by 2030. GHG emissions reduction were calculated by multiplying all electricity obtained from ACE by an emission factor of zero compared with the current emission factor. As such, the emissions remaining from electricity use would be from the customers that opted out of ACE back to PG&E. The electricity purchased from PG&E was calculated by applying the current ACE opt-out rates for residential and commercial of 5 and 6 percent, respectively, to the total residential and commercial electricity forecasted in 2030 and 2045. In the quantification of this measure, these baseline opt-out rates were assumed to remain the same through 2045. The forecasted PG&E electricity quantity was then multiplied by the forecasted PG&E emission factor in the corresponding year. The measure residential and commercial weighted emission factors were calculated per the equation below:

𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐸𝐹 = 𝐸𝐵𝐶𝐸 𝐸𝐹 ∗ (1 − 𝐸𝐵𝐶𝐸 𝑂𝑝𝑡 − 𝑂𝑢𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒) + 𝑃𝐺&𝐸 𝐸𝐹 ∗ 𝐸𝐵𝐶𝐸 𝑂𝑝𝑡 − 𝑂𝑢𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 The ACE Emission Factor in the equation above is assumed to be zero by 2030.

Table 9 Measure BE-4 GHG Emissions Reduction Calculations Year 2030 2045
Residential
Forecasted Electricity Purchased Residential (kWh)1 234,194,499 239,471,069 Forecasted Residential Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)2 0.00002 0 Forecasted Emissions (MT CO2e) 3,586 0
PG&E Opt out Electricity (kWh) 11,709,725 11,973,553
ACE Electricity (kWh) 222,484,774 227,497,516
Electricity Emissions with Measure Implementation (MT CO2e) 646 0 Measure Weighted Residential Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh) 3 0.0000028 0 Emissions Reduced with Measure Implementation (MT CO2e) 2,940 0 Commercial
Forecasted Electricity Purchased Commercial (kWh)1 508,611,741 516,310,524 Forecasted Commercial Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)2 0.000007 0 Forecasted Emissions (MT CO2e) 3,548 0
PG&E Opt out Electricity (kWh) 30,516,704 30,978,631 ACE Electricity (kWh) 478,095,036 485,331,892
Electricity Emissions with Measure Implementation (MT CO2e) 1,685 0 Measure Weighted Residential Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh) 4 0.0000033 0 Emissions Reduced with Measure Implementation (MT CO2e) 1,863 0 Total Reductions (MT CO2e) 4,802 0
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 21

1. Legislative Adjusted Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP. Additional electricity load expected from Measure BE-1, BE-2, and BE-3 is not included here due to CCA reductions for the added electricity being accounted for in each measure’s respective quantification.

2. The Forecasted Residential and Commercial Emission Factors are based on the weighted average residential emission factors for PG&E and ACEresidential accounts.

3. The Measure Residential Emission Factor assumes a baseline residential ACE opt-out rate of 5%, that the ACE emission factor is zero by 2030, and applies the PG&E forecasted emission factor for the 5% opt-out.

4. The Measure Commercial Emission Factor assumes use a baseline commercial ACE out-out rate of 6%, that the ACE emission factor is zero by 2030, and applies the PG&E forecasted emission for the 6% opt-out.

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

22 Table 10 GHG Emissions Reduction Associated with Measure BE-4 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-4.1 Structural
Change
Adopt a resolution establishing a policy that if Ava Community Energy does not meet the 2030 goal of its entire portfolio being 100% carbon-free, all Hayward customers will be enrolled in Renewable 100 by 2030. Resolution should include identification of funding or subsidies to ensure no cost increase to CARE/FERA customers. This may include subsidization cost to CARE/FERA customers to be funded by a rate increase for non-discounted customers.
4,802 0
BE-4.2 Education Engage with community (residential and non-residential) to advertise/highlight Ava Community Energy ’s plan to provide 100% carbon-free electricity by 2030. Provide information on the importance of this goal and the impact of buying electricity from Ava Community Energy .

Supportive Supportive
BE-4.3 Equity In collaboration with Ava Community Energy , implement a pilot program to provide Hayward’s affordable housing units Ava Community Energy ’s Renewable 100 service. Identify funding options with Ava Community Energy such as subsidies funded by non-discounted customers or grant funding.

Supportive Supportive
BE-4.4 Feasibility
Studies
Work with Ava Community Energy to conduct an annual analysis of opt-out rates in the City of Hayward to understand why residents and businesses opt out of Ava Community Energy or opt-down to Bright Choice over Renewable 100.

Supportive Supportive
Measure BE-5 Continue to promote energy efficiency improvement, in alignment with the 2014 Climate Action Plan
Background
Reducing both electricity and natural gas use is a fundamental strategy for the City to encourage and support as the electrical grid becomes increasingly cleaner and ultimately carbon-free. Measure BE-5 aims to reduce GHG emissions by increasing energy efficiency in homes and businesses by reducing electricity and natural gas use. Measure BE-5’s energy efficiency actions build on successful actions included in the existing Hayward Climate Action Plan (2014), with a focus on promoting energy efficient design, construction, maintenance, and operation of facilities and infrastructure (Action BE-5.1), collaborating with utility providers and regional entities to promote incentive programs for energy efficient retrofits, appliances, and equipment (Action BE-5.2 and Action BE-

5.3), and prioritizing funding for low-income homeowners, landlords, and renters (Action BE-5.5).

The City will also continue to support non-residential building owners by promoting the use of the Energy Star Portfolio management program and energy benchmarking training programs (Action BE-

5.4).

Measures BE-1, BE-2, and BE-3 promote energy efficiency through electrification. Furthermore, all- electric versions of equipment contribute to on-bill energy savings, since electric heat-pumps used for water and space heating have up to 400 percent efficiency improvement compared with natural GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 23 gas powered appliances.25 This reduction in energy bill burden can help low-income households maintain equitable access energy when energy needs for space heating and cooling are high.

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG reductions for Measure BE-5 are not quantified for the years 2030 and 2045 in this analysis to minimize double counting associated with GHG emissions reductions from other the building energy measures in the CAP.

Table 11 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure BE-5 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-5.1 Structural Change Continue to promote the efficient use of energy in the design, construction,
maintenance, and operation of public and
private facilities, infrastructure, and
equipment.

Supportive Supportive
BE-5.2 Partnership/Education Continue to collaborate with partner agencies, utility providers, and the
business community to support a range of
energy efficiency, conservation, and waste
reduction measures, including the
development of green buildings and
infrastructure, weatherization programs,
installation of energy-efficient appliances
and equipment in homes and offices,
promotion of energy efficiency retrofit
programs, use of green power options,
and heightened awareness of the benefits
of energy efficiency and conservation
issues.

Supportive Supportive
BE-5.3 Partnership/Funding Continue to collaborate with regional entities and others to promote incentive
programs for energy efficiency retrofits
such as the Energy Upgrade California
program for residential properties.

Supportive Supportive
BE-5.4 Structural Change Continue to promote the use of the Energy Star Portfolio Manager program and
energy benchmarking training programs
for nonresidential building owners.

Supportive Supportive
BE-5.5 Equity/Funding Obtain and prioritize funding for the weatherization program specifically for
low, very low, and low-income
homeowners, landlords, and renters, to
make energy efficiency improvement and
improve health and safety of residences.

Supportive Supportive

25 Dennis, Keith. 2015. Environmentally Beneficial Electrification: Electricity as the End-Use Option. The Electricity Journal. 28(9). pp. 100- 112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2015.09.019. Accessed June 27, 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

24 Measure BE-6 Generate carbon-neutral electricity on City facilities meeting 80% of the municipal operational electricity needs by 2030.

Background
Measure BE-6 commits the City to generating carbon-neutral electricity meeting 80 percent of the City’s electricity needs by 2030. The City has already made progress towards reaching this goal by completing a citywide study to estimate the total potential for renewable energy generation on City facilities including estimated cost and benefits. Actions BE-6.5 and BE-6.6 build upon these efforts to develop an Energy Assurance Plan, outlining locations for installation of local renewable energy generation, energy storage projects and locations for development of a micro-grid and scheduling the implementation of prioritized projects, considering potential funding sources and partnerships needed for successful implementation. The Energy Assurance Plan will also identify which City facilities can serve as cooling centers for disadvantaged communities (Action BE-6.4). Additionally, Actions BE-6.1, BE-6.3, BE-6.9, and BE-6.11 serve to increase battery storage and energy resilience of critical City facilities and operations. These actions will increase community resilience to power outages during extreme weather events, improving the City’s ability to adapt to future impacts of climate change. Actions BE-6.2 and BE-6.7 outline partnership opportunities with the Urban Sustainability Directors Network, California Resilience Partnership (CRP), PG&E, ACE, and the Water Pollution Control facility to identify locations for resilience hubs, ensure smooth integration of renewable energy systems, and expand methane recovery, respectively. Action BE-6.8 seeks to provide incentives to community members and businesses to install solar and battery storage options. Through Action BE-6.12, the City will prepare a plan to facilitate the transition of natural gas appliances to electric in City facilities.

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG reductions for Measure BE-6 are not quantified for the years 2030 and 2045 in this analysis as this reduction is a subset of the community emissions (municipal electricity use is included in the overall community electricity use) and was not quantified to avoid double counting.

Table 12 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure BE-6 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-6.1 Structural Change Obtain battery storage in City buildings and critical facilities, including community-based resilience hubs,
identified to need power during emergencies or power
outages.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.2 Partnership/
Feasibility Study
Develop partnerships with organizations, such as the
Urban Sustainability Directors Network (USDN) or
California Resilience Partnership (CRP), to conduct a
feasibility study to identify locations for community
resilience hubs within the City, identify grant
opportunities, and to develop a plan to implement a
resilience hub.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.3 Structural Change Conduct analysis on risks and benefits associated with relying on battery storage to achieve carbon neutral
electricity and grid resiliency goals in the City and set a MW capacity goal for installed battery storage by 2030
and 2045.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 25 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-6.4 Equity Formally include City facilities that serve as cooling centers to disadvantaged communities in the Energy
Assurance Plan (Community Safety program 13) and
develop and implement energy resiliency strategies like on-site renewable energy generation or energy storage
to ensure center remains active even in power
shortages.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.5 Feasibility Study As part of Energy Assurance Plan (Community Safety program 13), include identifications of locations or
complexes (i.e., City facilities, college campuses, critical facilities) in the City for installation of local renewable energy generation, energy storage projects, and/or
ideal locations for development of a micro-grid as
evaluated in Ava Community Energy feasibility study.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.6 Feasibility Study Develop the study estimating renewable energy generation on City facilities and schedule for
implementing the prioritized solar projects identified.

The plan should include an identification of barriers and needs for implementation of the prioritized projects as well as identify funding sources and partnerships
needed for successful implementation.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.7 Partnership Partner with PG&E and/or Ava Community Energy to ensure smooth integration of renewable energy
systems from the identified prioritized projects or other individual solar projects into the grid.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.8 Funding/Education Identify and advertise incentives available for the community members for installing solar on homes such
as Net Metering Programs through PG&E for bill
credits, or the Disadvantaged Communities-single-
family Solar Homes (DAC_SASH) program. Identify
incentives available for businesses and homeowners to
install energy storage systems, such as Self Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) and Equity Resiliency rebates
that provides an upfront rebate for battery storage
and/or the federal investment tax credit for solar
batteries installed. Provide resource information to the community through websites, workshops, and
partnerships.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.9 Funding /Equity Partner with affordable housing providers to conduct a feasibility analysis of battery storage and solar projects at the affordable housing in Hayward that are eligible
for Equity Resilience Incentives under the SGIP
Program.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

26 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
BE-6.10 Funding/Partnership Determine opportunities for the Water Pollution Control Facility to expand existing biogas (i.e.,
methane) capturing and utilization as part of the
Biosolids Master Plan currently underway. The Master
Plan document will plan for and phase in improvements
for utilizing biogas for the next 20-years including
potentially expanding the existing cogeneration facility to produce more energy, or possibly converting to
renewable natural gas for pipeline injection off-setting the need to purchase non-renewable natural gas. This
master plan is consistent with General Plan policy PFS-

4.12 to develop, enhance and maintain clean, green
and renewable energy systems at the Water Pollution
Control Facility (WPCF).

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.11 Education Provide educational materials and workshops to large commercial developers and large business property
owners of the benefits of microgrids and energy
resiliency. Provide resources to identify opportunities for solar installations and/or battery storage on site.

Supportive Supportive
BE-6.12 Feasibility Study Prepare a plan to facilitate the transition of natural gas appliances to electric in City Facilities. Plan should
include an inventory of appliances available for
replacement, identify cost where possible, and
establish a timeline for replacement.

Supportive Supportive

2.2 Transportation
Measure T-1 Increase active transportation mode share to 15% by 2030 and to 20% by 2045.

Background
Reducing transportation emissions and becoming a carbon neutral City means reducing the number of miles driven by fossil fuel-powered vehicles, particularly passenger vehicles. According to Hayward’s 2019 GHG Inventory, transportation emissions accounted for 61 percent of total emissions in the City. The City will prioritize reducing vehicles miles travelled (VMT) first, by improving active and public transportation mode share. Reducing VTM through an increase in active transportation mode share carries innumerable benefits outside of GHG emissions reductions, including reduced congestion, reduced space needed for roadways and parking, local economic revitalization, and lifestyle improvements.26
As of 2019, bicycle and pedestrian mode share in the City is low – 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.27 Studies show that investments in active transportation infrastructure in other cities have demonstrated improvements in active transportation mode shifts and GHG emissions

26 Richard Campbell and Margaret Wittgens. March 2004. The Business Case for Active Transportation. http://thirdwavecycling.com/pdfs/at_business_case.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023 27 U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 27 reduction.28 Recently, the City adopted the 2020 Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan, which details the City’s plan to establish a network of accessible, safe and integrated bicycle and pedestrian facilities.29 The new plan recommends 153 miles of new bicycles facilities, including 32 miles of multi-use paths for both pedestrians and cyclists. Action T-1.5 commits the City to continuing the implementation of the Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan. Several other actions under Measure T-1 commit the City to continuing structural changes to further investments in active transportation mode shifts, including Action T-1.3, which seeks to implement complete streets improvements such as retrofits, design standards, and green infrastructure that would accommodate walking, biking, transit use and carpooling. Other actions to promote mode shift include continuing to identify streets for permanent through traffic closure (Action T-1.8) and removing parking and/or additional traffic lanes to priority outdoor seating (Action T-1.9). In Action T-1.2, the City commits to update the General Plan to facilitate complete and walkable neighborhoods, maximize infill development, support the regional Sustainable Communities Strategy, and promote a job-housing match. Through Action T-1.6, the City will evaluate and update the relevant codes and plans to encourage active transportation. The City will also conduct an underused rights-of-way study to understand community perspectives on potential barriers to conversions and identify solutions (Action T-1.7).

Action T-1.1 seeks to amend the Off-Street Parking Regulation of the Municipal Code to incorporate smart growth principles and to incentivize walking, biking, and public transit. Other actions focused on partnerships, education, equity, and engagement, including Actions T-1.10, T-1.11, T-1.13, T-

1.12, and T-1.14, identify partners to collaborate with to obtain funding, expand rebates, and promote incentives to promote active transportation and disseminate information regarding the environmental and health benefits of walking and bicycling. Additionally, Action T-1.4 commits the City to adopting a micro-mobility policy in the City. Studies suggest that micro-mobility programs, like e-bike share, can reduce VMT and associated GHG emissions. For example, a 2019 report from the City of Santa Monica found that 49 percent of shared mobility trips replaced trips that would have otherwise been made by car, either driving alone or ride-hailing. Findings were based on answers to survey questions asking participants how shared electric scooters and bikes helped them get around the City.30 Actions T-1.15 and Action T-1.16 commit the City to devoting staff time to identify solutions, tracking and apply for funding, and eliminate barriers.

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG reductions are determined by quantifying the effect the active transportation interventions have on shifting trips from single occupancy vehicles (SOV) to walking and biking. Reduction calculations are based on increasing bike mode shares by 13 percent and 18 percent for 2030 and 2045, respectively, and maintaining a walking mode share of 1.5 percent for both 2030 and 2045.

Current bicycle mode share (0.4 percent) and walking mode share (1.5 percent) were estimated based on statistics in the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (2019) for Hayward. 31 The CARB EMFAC2021 model is used to determine the GHG emissions reduced as a result of reduced SOV VMT. Total passenger VMT was converted into average car trips using an average trip length for Alameda County obtained from EMFAC2021. This number of vehicle trips was then

28 Andrew Glazener and Haneen Khreis. January 2019. Transforming our Cities: Best Practices Towards Clean Air and Active Transportation. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40572-019-0228-1. Accessed June 27, 2023 29 City of Hayward. 2020. Bike and Pedestrian Master Plan Update. https://www.hayward-ca.gov/content/bike-and-pedestrian-master- plan-update. Accessed June 27, 2023.
30 City of Santa Monica. November 2019. Shared Mobility Pilot Program Summary Report. https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/PCD/Transportation/SantaMonicaSharedMobilityEvaluation_Final_110419.pdf.

Accessed June 27, 2023
31 U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

28 multiplied by the target percent increase in bike mode share to determine the number of vehicle trips that would be replaced by bike mode share with Measure implementation. The number of bike trips was converted to VMT replaced based on a study by CARB finding that on average bike trips are 1.5 miles.32 The replaced VMT was multiplied by the emission factors for passenger vehicles from CARB’s EMFAC2021 model. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate GHG emission reductions from Measure T-1 are provided in Table 13.

32 CARB. 2019. Quantifying Reductions in Vehicle Miles Traveled from new Bike Paths, Lanes , and Cycle Tracks Summary Report. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/auction-proceeds/bicycle%20facilities_summary_032519.pdf. Accessed July 20, 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 29 Table 13 Measure T-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Bike mode share increase from baseline 1 13% 18%
Walk mode share increase from baseline2 0% 0%
Passenger VMT 3 951,249,744 1,022,153,281
Passenger trips4 118,915,731 128,286,370
New bike trips substituted for vehicle trips 15,577,961 23,219,833 New walk trips substituted for vehicle trips 0 0
Passenger VMT reduced with bike trips (Miles)5 23,366,941 34,829,749 Passenger VMT reduced with walk trips (Miles)6 0 0
Total VMT reduced with bike and walk trips (miles) 23,366,941 34,829,749 Passenger Emissions Factor from EMFAC2021 (MT CO2e/VMT)7 0.000278 0.000251 Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 6,485 8,755
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; VMT = vehicle miles traveled

1. Assumes a bicycles mode share target of 14% by 2030 and 19% by 2045 as well as an existing bicycle mode share of

0.4%, per U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023

2. Assumes a walk mode share target of 2% by 2030 and maintain through 2045 as well as an existing walk mode share of 1,5%, per U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023

3. Legislative Adjusted Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.

4. Passenger trips are calculated using trips per mile traveled in a combustion vehicle, as obtained from CARB’s vehicle emission factor database, EMFAC2021 times forecasted passenger VMT.

5. Assumes an average bike trip length of 1.5 miles, per CARB. 2019. Quantifying Reductions in Vehicle Miles Traveled from New Bike Paths, Lanes, and Cycle Tracks. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/auction- proceeds/bicycle_facilities_technical_041519.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023

6. Assumes an average walk trip length of 0.3 miles, per CARB. 2019. Quantifying Reductions in Vehicle Miles Traveled from New Bike Paths, Lanes, and Cycle Tracks. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/auction- proceeds/bicycle_facilities_technical_041519.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023

7. Passenger Emissions Factor calculated from data from CARB’s vehicle emission factor database, EMFAC2021. *Values may not add up due to rounding
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

30 Table 14 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-1 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-1.1 Structural Change Amend the Off-Street Parking Regulation of Municipal Code to incorporate smart growth
principles and to incentivize walking, biking, and
public transit.

1. Creating a single “blended” parking requirement
for commercial uses to facilitate future changes
of use (i.e., changing a retail store to a
restaurant).

Providing requirements or incentives for bicycle
parking.

2. Allowing on-street parking along the property’s
frontage to count towards satisfying a portion of
the property’s off-street parking requirements.

3. Creating parking preferences or incentives for
residents who rideshare or use low- or zero-
emissions vehicles.

4. Allowing property owners to develop and
implement parking demand management plans
that consider ways to reduce the need for off-
street parking by using shared parking
arrangements, valet parking services, paid
parking, and other appropriate techniques.

5. Establish design standards or retrofit standards
from the Complete Streets.

6. Assessment to promote multi-modal use.
6,485 8,755
T-1.2 Structural Change In support of the General Plan and City land-use policies, maximize infill development, increase land-
use and transit efficiencies to support the regional
Sustainable Communities Strategy and promote a
jobs-housing match. WIin addition, work with
developers to prioritize infill development projects
and transit-oriented development zones.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.3 Structural Change Based on the completed Complete Streets Assessment, and the Complete Streets Inventory
Baseline, and the 2020 Bicycle and Pedestrian
Master Plan, develop a priority list of complete
streets improvements such as retrofits, design
standards, and green infrastructure that would
accommodate walking, biking, transit use and
carpooling. This effort should include a schedule for
implementation, prioritization of improvements,
identification of whether improvement will aid in
walking, biking or transit access, and the plan should
ensure equitable roll-out to low-income
communities.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.4 Structural Change Adopt and implement a micro-mobility policy that promotes ownership of micro-mobility devices,
especially among lower income community
members. Promote equitable access to charging
facilities for electric micro-mobility devices.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 31 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-1.5 Structural Change Continue to implement 2020 Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan goals of developing 153 new bicycle
facilities and 32 miles of multi-use paths for
pedestrians and cyclists.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.6 Structural Change Evaluate and, if necessary, update the City's Zoning Code, Transportation Demand Management Plan (or
Administrative Rule 2.26), and California Green
Building Code to reflect current transportation
demand management opportunities and ensure the
City requires sufficient bicycle parking for new
commercial development and retrofits.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.7 Structural Change/
Feasibility Study
Update and conduct Underused Rights-of-Way
Study such that a community/business survey and
evaluation is completed to understand community
perspective on potential barriers to conversions and
identify barrier solutions.

Based on findings, convert recommended amount
miles of under used roadways thoroughfare to
active transportation corridors to create a
connected environment City (i.e., downtown areas).

As part of the program, launch a public campaign to
gain public and business support to ensure success
of such efforts. Consider having pilot programs (i.e.,
shutting down street lanes for specific
events/periods of time) to demonstrate the
advantages of proposed improvements.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.8 Structural Change Identify streets for permanent through traffic closures to promote walking, biking, and other
forms of active transportation.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.9 Structural Change Identify areas of the City to remove parking and/or additional traffic lanes to prioritize outdoor seating
and make permanent outdoor dining established
during Covid 19.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.10 Equity Prioritize active transportation and mobility projects in historically under-invested neighborhoods.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.11 Partnership/
Education
Partner with schools, employers, transit agencies,
Hayward Area Recreation and Park District (HARD),
and community groups to teach bicycle and
pedestrian safety in schools and workplaces and to
educate residents and businesses about the health
and environmental benefits of walking, bicycling,
and using public transit.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.12 Partnership Partner with community organizations and local bike shops to provide rebates for low-income community
members to purchase bicycles, helmets, pumps, e-
bikes, e-scooters, and other related equipment.

Work with community partners to provide
incentives to promote bicycle, e-bike and e-scooter
ownership.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

32 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-1.13 Equity/
Funding
Partner with community groups to obtain funding
through the California Air Resources Board Car
Sharing and mobility Options program for a pilot
bike-share program in low-income communities and
to connect low-income communities with the E-Bike
Purchase Incentive Program through CalBike.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.14 Equity Ensure there is equitable access to safe bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure in all areas of the city.

Prioritize the development of pedestrian and bicycle
infrastructure in low-income communities where
there is currently no or limited pedestrian and
bicycle infrastructure
Supportive Supportive
T-1.15 Feasibility Studies Based on the identified barriers to completing the Complete Streets Evaluation including limited staff
and fiscal resources, develop strategies to reduce or
eliminate barriers, such as identifying staff to assign the Complete Streets Evaluation to.

Supportive Supportive
T-1.16 Funding Devote staff time to managing, tracking and applying for grant funding to complete projects that
would improve active transportation or mobility in
the community.

Supportive Supportive
Measure T-2 Implement public and shared transit programs to increase mode shift to public and shared transit mode to 15% by 2030 and 30% by 2045.

Background
The City is served by the public transiting agencies Alameda-Contra Costa Transit (AC Transit) and Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART). Improving transit ridership is key to reducing SOV VMT in the City, as transportation GHG emissions are estimated to be the largest contributor to communitywide emissions in the 2019 GHG Inventory, accounting for 61 percent of total GHG emissions (excluding AC Transit and BART emissions which both account for less than one percent of emissions). Similar to Measure T-1, Measure T-2 focuses on reducing transportation related emissions by reducing VMT through programs and policies that shift VMT away from SOV to other modes including transit, e- mobility, and transportation demand management programs and policies. As outlined for Measure T-1, these mode shifts generate many co-benefits such as reduced congestion, safer conditions for walking and biking, and improved air quality. One of the best ways to improve a transit system and reduce driving is to expand its geographical reach and increase the frequency and reliability of transit service. Each new mile of transit usage replaces VMT on much more than a 1:1 basis.

Approximately 1 percent increase in transit frequency saves 0.5 percent in VMT.33 Furthermore, improving transit access has the potential to shift trips from cars to transit, which may reduce vehicle trips, VMT, and greenhouse gas emissions, with time spent getting to a transit stop being the key indicator of transit access.34

33 Todd Litman. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. August 2021. Evaluating Public Transit Benefits and Costs Best Practices Guidebook.

Accessed at: https://www.vtpi.org/tranben.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023 34 California Air Resources Board (CARB). August 2017. Methods to Assess Co-Benefits of California Climate Investments: Vehicle Miles Travelled. Accessed at: http://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/auction-proceeds/carb_vehicle_miles_traveled.pdf GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 33 The City is committing to several structural change actions to implement public and share transit programs to increase communitywide transit mode share to 15 percent by 2030 and to 30 percent by 2045. Through Action T-2.2, the City is adopting a policy or code into the Municipal code to establish new development of public space to be transit accessible. In addition to improving transit connection in the City, Action T-2.9 strives to reduce the GHG emissions associated with the AC Transit bus fleet, by partnering with AC Transit to understand how they can address the Innovative Clean Transit Rule. The City is committing to promoting e-mobility through the development and adoption of an ordinance requiring new multi-family development projects to install a car share or provide e-bikes/e-scooters to each new tenant (Action T-2.4). Other actions commit the City to prioritizing and updating transit stops to include trees or shade structures (Action T-2.5), requiring employers to develop Transportation Demand Management Plans (TDM) and incentives (Action T-

2.7), and expanding the Student Transit Pass Program (STPP) to provide free AC transit to college students and low-income community members (Action T-2.8). Other structural change actions commit the City to continuing to promote transit-oriented infill development and/or new development, adopting parking requirements into the Municipal code that are appropriate for a transit-oriented district, and allowing developers to build housing without off-street parking if near transit stops (Actions T-2.1, T-2.3, and T-2.6).

Other actions prioritize conducting surveys and studies to better understand the community’s need and motivations for traveling by car versus other alternatives such as AC Transit or BART (Action

2.11). Action T-2.10 commits the City to dedicating staff time to implementing planned City transit/TDM projects and programs while through Action T-2.13 the City looks to partner with AC Transit to conduct a study to determine transit property corridors and prioritize infrastructure improvements in existing neighborhoods that enable people to better access and use public transit.

Through Action T-2.12, the City will assess the feasibility and GHG reduction impacts of banning cars in high-traffic zone(s) or on individual roads in the City where other transit options are available by implementing a congestion charge.

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG reductions associated with Measure T-2 were calculated in a similar manner to those calculated for Measure T-1. Reduction calculations are based on the target transit mode shares of 15 percent and 30 percent for 2030 and 2045, respectively. Current transit mode share (8.8 percent) was estimated based on statistics in the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (2019) for the City. 35 The CARB EMFAC2021 model is used to determine the GHG emissions reduced as a result of reduced SOV VMT. To avoid double counting the reduced VMT from implementation of Measure T-1 was subtracted from the total passenger VMT. The adjusted passenger VMT was converted to trips using the average trip length for Alameda County obtained from EMFAC2021. This number of vehicle trips was then multiplied by the target percent increase in transit mode share to determine the number of vehicle trips that would be replaced by transit mode share with Measure implementation. Transit trips were translated into VMT using an average transit trip length of 3.8 miles based on a study developed by the American Public Transportation Association.36 Emissions associated with the reduced VMT were calculated using the passenger emission factors from CARB’s EMFAC2021 model. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emission reductions from Measure T-1 are provided in Table 15.

35 U.S. Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023 36 American Public Transportation Association. 2018. 2018 Public Transportation Fact Book. https://www.apta.com/wp- content/uploads/Resources/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2018-APTA-Fact-Book.pdf. Accessed June 30th, 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

34 Table 15 Measure T-2 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Transit mode share increase from baseline1 6% 21%
Passenger VMT2 927,882,803 987,323,531
Passenger trips3 115,994,629 123,915,027
New transit trips substituted for vehicle trips 7,191,667 26,269,986 Passenger VMT reduced with transit trips (Miles)4 27,328,335 99,825,946 Passenger EF from EMFAC2021 (MT CO2e/VMT)5 0.000278 0.000251 Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 7,585 25,092
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; VMT = vehicle miles traveled

1. Assumes a transit mode share target of 15% by 2030 and 30% by 2045 as well as an existing transit mode share of 8.8%, per U.S.

Census Bureau. 2019. S0801 Commuting Characteristics by Sex. https://data.census.gov/table?t=Commuting&g=160XX00US0633000. Accessed June 27, 2023

2. Passenger VMT assumes implementation of Measure T-1, therefore reducing the forecasted passenger VMT with bike and walk trips.

3. Passenger trips are calculated using trips per mile traveled in a combustion vehicle, as obtained from CARB’s vehicle emission factor database, EMFAC2021 times forecasted passenger VMT.

4. Assumes an average intercity bus trip length of 3.8 miles, per American Public Transportation Association. 2018. Public Transportation Fact Book. https://www.apta.com/wp-
content/uploads/Resources/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2018-APTA-Fact-Book.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023

5. Passenger Emissions Factor calculated from data from CARB’s vehicle emission factor database, EMFAC2021. *Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 16 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-2 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-2.1 Structural Change Continue to promote infill development and/or new development that is compact, mixed use, pedestrian
friendly, and transit oriented.
7,585 25,092
T-2.2 Structural Change Adopt a policy or code into the Municipal code that establishes specific standards for new development of
public space to be transit accessible and multi-functional by co-locating public facilities.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.3 Structural Change Consistent with the Downtown Parking Management Plan and Downtown Specific Plan, adopt parking
requirements into the Municipal code that are
appropriate for a mixed-use, walkable, and transit-
oriented district. Evaluate opportunities in the
Downtown area to designate streets for transit only.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.4 Structural Change Develop and adopt an ordinance requiring new multi- family development projects to install a car share or
provide e-bikes/e-scooters to each new tenant.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.5 Structural Change Evaluate and prioritize transit stops needing renovations that do not meet the adopted Pedestrian Design
Standard for Transit Stop. Upgrade transit stops such
that they include bicycle parking and shade trees or
structures and are designed to promote use.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 35 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-2.6 Structural Change Consistent with the intention of Senate Bill 10, allow developers to build housing without off-street parking if they’re close to frequent transit service
Supportive Supportive
T-2.7 Funding/
Structural Change
Through the adoption of an ordinance or incorporation
into large commercial building codes, require all
employers to develop a Transportation Demand
Management (TDM) Plan. TDM plans should include
money-based incentives for employees to bike, walk,
carpool, or take the bus to work. In alignment with
BAAQMD requirement, require large employers (more
than 50 employees) to subsidize biking, walking, or bus travel.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.8 Partnership/Equity Expand the Student Transit Pass Program (STPP), which provides free youth clipper cards with unlimited bus
rides to middle and high schools students, to provide
free AC transit to college students and low-income
community members.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.9 Partnership Collaborate and engage with AC Transit to understand how they are addressing the Innovative Clean Transit
Rule and their plan to electrify their bus fleet.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.10 Funding Dedicate staff time or create a staff position to pursue funding opportunities to implement planned City
transit/TDM projects and programs and to support AC
Transit in obtaining grant funding for regionwide service expansion.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.11 Feasibility Study Conduct local transportation surveys to better understand the community’s needs and motivation for
traveling by car versus other alternatives such as AC
Transit or BART. Use survey results to inform policy
development and education/outreach campaigns that
are transit focused. Consistent with the previous CAP
policy M-3 (Survey Transportation and Transit Gaps and
Barriers)
Supportive Supportive
T-2.12 Feasibility Study Assess the feasibility and GHG reduction impact of banning cars in high-traffic zone(s) or on individual roads in the City where other transit options are available by implementing a congestion charge that applies to
passenger cars and car-sharing services like Uber and
Lyft with exceptions for handicap drivers and residents of those areas.

Supportive Supportive
T-2.13 Feasibility Studies/
Partnerships
Partner with AC Transit to conduct a study to determine transit priority corridors and prioritize infrastructure improvements in existing neighborhoods that enable
people to better access and use public transit
Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

36 Measure T-3 Develop disincentives for driving single passenger vehicles to support the bicycle/pedestrian and public transit mode share goals of Measures T-1 and T-2.

Background
While Measures T-1 and T-2 can be effective in changing community choices around transportation, the impacts of incentive-based policies increase when coupled with disincentives for less favorable choices, such as making it less convenient to drive a gasoline-fueled single passenger vehicle.37 However, disincentive-based policies can be unpopular and place a burden on the community if not implemented carefully. Structural change actions reducing parking minimums and parking maximums citywide (Action T-3.3), developing disincentive options to achieve reductions in peak hour traffic as part of a Citywide Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Plan (Action T-3.1), updating development requirements, ordinances, and/or building codes requiring TDM as part of new developments (Action T-3.2), and increasing broadband internet access (Action T-3.11) should be supported by feasibility planning, funding opportunities, and engagement efforts, to minimize the burden placed on vulnerable community members. Action T-3.5 commits the City to conducting feasibility planning for implementing disincentives for driving gasoline-fueled single passenger vehicles, including analyzing and engaging the community on potential impacts and benefits of limiting parking options while Action T-3.6 requires that the City conduct engagement efforts targeting low-income communities of color to better understand the community’s potential concerns. The City will also evaluate parking pricing structures that best work for the community, through Action T-3.4. Through Action T-3.7, the City will define equity metrics for implementation of disincentives based on feedback from low-income communities. Actions T-3.8, T-3.9, and T-3.10 seek to minimize financial burdens on community-members by providing funding options.

Methodology and Assumptions
Measure T-3 is intended to be supportive to Measures T-1 and T-2 in reducing communitywide VMT, and therefore GHG emissions reductions were not calculated.

37 Gabriel Ayobami Ogunkunbi et al. August 2021. Evidence-Based Market Overview of Incentives and Disincentives in Electric Mobility as a Key to the Sustainable Future. https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7590/1/2/17/pdf. Accessed June, 27 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 37 Table 17 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-3

Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
Action
ID Pillars 2030 2045
T-3.1 Structural
Change
Develop and adopt a Citywide Transportation Demand
Management (TDM) Plan including strategies to reduce peak- hour traffic, such as staggered work hours, flexible schedule options, and telecommuting from home offices. Include
updated policy incentives or disincentive options to achieve reductions in peak-hour traffic, reduce traffic congestions and promotes alternative transportation (biking, walking, and use of transit)
Supportive Supportive
T-3.2 Structural
Change
Continue to require new development adopt transportation demand management strategies to reduce use of single
occupancy vehicles and encourage the use of alternative modes of travel. Update development requirements,
ordinances, and/or building codes requiring TDM as part of new developments as part of enforcement.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.3 Structural
Change
Develop consistent standards for parking minimums and
maximums across the city. Reduce parking minimums and
parking maximums citywide, as improved active and public transit infrastructure becomes more available. Additionally, price all public parking spaces for all areas of the city based on available transportation options, travel demand, and land use.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.4 Feasibility
Study/
Funding
Evaluate parking pricing structures that would best work with the City of Hayward. Based on evaluation, implement
dynamic parking pricing in downtown parking areas and
earmark parking revenues to implement other active
transportation and transit projects.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.5 Feasibility
Study
Conduct an analysis of the potential community impacts and benefits of implementing disincentive-based policies for driving single passenger vehicles, including a congestion charge program, limiting parking options, increased local taxes (income tax, gasoline tax, or car registration tax), and Transportation Network Company (TNC) user taxes.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.6 Equity Conduct engagement efforts for the general public and targeted to low-income communities of color during analysis of the disincentive-based transportation policies to
understand the community's potential concerns
Supportive Supportive
T-3.7 Equity Define equity metrics for implementation of disincentives based on feedback from local low-income communities of
color and structure the disincentive programs to meet these metrics
Supportive Supportive
T-3.8 Funding Fund active and public transit programs through a local gasoline tax and/or through paid parking fees.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.9 Funding Implement a Transportation Network Company (TNC) user tax which would put a small fee on the use of Uber and Lyft and generate funds to pay for transit and mobility
infrastructure.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

38 Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
Action
ID Pillars 2030 2045
T-3.10 Funding/
Equity
Implement a gasoline/diesel car registration tax starting in 2028 with exemption criteria established for low-income residents.

Supportive Supportive
T-3.11 Structural
Change
Increase Broadband Internet Access. Add a program to
encourage more working from home and reducing the need
to travel for work.

Supportive Supportive
Measure T-4 Increase passenger zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption to 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2045.

Background
The State of California has adopted ambitious goals for ZEV adoption, with the Advanced Clean Cars II regulation striving to achieve 100 percent ZEV vehicle sales by 2035. To align with these aggressive State goals, the City seeks to increase ZEV adoption to 15 percent by 2030, while striving to set in place the framework to reach a long-term goal of 50 percent ZEV adoption by 2045. This regulation puts the total number of ZEVs on the road by 2035 at approximately 15 million.38 As of 2020, the City has 1,363 electric vehicles and 1,066 plug-in hybrid vehicles out of 155,531 vehicles currently registered, together accounting for 1.6 percent of the vehicles registered within the City.39 Reaching these targets will require significant investment in electric vehicle charging infrastructure to facilitate the transition to electric vehicles. While the City cannot require residents to buy and use EVs rather than gas-powered vehicles, the City will take actions to incentivize this behavior change and support this level of EV adoption. Adding and supporting the addition of electric vehicle chargers within the City will be the main mechanism through which the City will encourage zero- emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption within the community.

As a part of this measure, the City’s primary target will be to provide one public EV charger for every 20 EV’s and ensure as many privately owned chargers are installed in new development as practicable, in line with the leading cities in California (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Jose) and recent charging infrastructure studies. Since the City of Hayward already has 152 existing public charging stations, there is currently one public EV charger for every 16 EVs, and the City will need to have 1,365 new public chargers installed to meet the forecasted demand from passenger vehicles by 2030.

A 2015 report by Idaho National Laboratory, Plugged In: How Americans Charge Their Electric Vehicles, found that nearly 98 percent of all EV charging events occurred at home or work.40 In support of these findings, and to address the challenges faced by those who may not be able to install their own home chargers, as part of Action T-4.1, the City will continue to enforce the Hayward EV Charge Reach Code. EV-ready building codes are one of the most effective and low-cost

38 Susan Carpenter. Spectrum News 1. October 2020. What it will take to get 100% EV sales in California. Accessed at:
https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2020/10/05/what-it-will-take-to-sell-100--evs-in-california. Accessed June, 27 2023
39 DMV. 2020. Fuel Type by County. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/uploads/2020/09/MotorVehicleFuelTypes_City_01012020.pdf Accessed June 27, 2023
40 Osti.Gov. 2018. Plugged In: How American Change Their Electric Vehicles. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1369632-plugged-how- americans-charge-electric-vehicles. Accessed June, 27 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 39 strategies for states and local governments to encourage consumers to buy or lease electric vehicles and can save consumers thousands of dollars in installation costs.41 Through Action T-4.3, the City will continue to maintain a streamlined EV infrastructure permitting process and ordinance to minimize barriers and inefficiencies. Action T-4.4 promotes ZEVs by requiring new private parking lots grant ZEV access to preferred parking spaces. The City recognizes the barriers associated with the procurement of ZEVs, particularly to low-income community members. Actions T-4.5, T-4.6. T-4.7, T-4.8, and T-4.9 seek to provide funding opportunities to minimize costs associated with the purchase of ZEVs and associated charging equipment and develop and disseminate educational information on the costs/benefits of owning ZEVs. The City will also seek to partner with the Alameda County Transportation Commission, ACE, PG&E, and car share companies to expand infrastructure, provide incentives, and increase ZEV infrastructure accessibility (Actions T-4.2, T-4.8, T-4.9, T-4.10, T-4.11, and T-4.12).

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG emission reductions for the increased adoption of ZEVs are based on replacing fossil fueled vehicles with electric versions in the community. GHG emissions reductions from the adoption of ZEVs assumed a 15 percent adoption of ZEVs by 2030 and 50 percent by 2045. The GHG emissions forecast performed as part of the 2019 Community GHG Inventory and GHG Emissions Forecast assume that approximately 9 percent of total Hayward passenger vehicle VMT in 2030 would be by ZEVs, and 10 percent in 2045.42 This results in a 6 percent and 40 percent increase in ZEV adoption by 2030 and 2045, respectively, compared with the forecasted ZEV adoption levels in those target years. GHG emissions reduction are calculated by multiplying the percent of ZEV adoption beyond the forecasted values by the passenger VMT after implementation of Measure T-1 and T-2 in the target year. The weighted average passenger vehicle emission factor for internal combustion engines in the target years was applied to the calculated VMT reduction. This GHG reduction would be offset by electricity consumption which would generate GHG emissions in 2030. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emission reductions from Measure T-4 are provided in Table 18.

41 SWEEP. 2018. Cracking the Code on EV-Ready Building Codes. https://www.swenergy.org/cracking-the-code-on-ev-ready-building- codes. Accessed June 27, 2023
42 Projected EV adoption rates were obtained from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) EMFAC2017 vehicle emissions model. The model was run for 2030 and 2045 for Los Angeles County. https://arb.ca.gov/emfac/2017/.

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

40 Table 18 Measure T-4 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Passenger ICE VMT after mode shift to active and shared transit (miles)1 823,467,006 796,706,583 Passenger VMT ICE Emission Factor (MT CO2e/VMT)2 0.0003 0.0003 EV adoption beyond baseline 6.4% 39.8%
EV electricity usage (kWh/mile)3 0.37 0.369708000
EV electricity usage from increased EV adoption (kWh) 19,648,777 117,142,057 Weighted electricity Emissions Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.0000028 0 Emission Reduction from EV increased adoption (MT CO2e) 16,068 88,718 Emissions from electricity usage for EVs (MT CO2e) 54 0 Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 16,014 88,718
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; EV = electric vehicle

1. Assumes the implementation of Measures T-1 and T-2 and uses the projected baseline passenger EV adoption rates for Alameda County from the CARB EMFAC2021 vehicle emissions model.

2. Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP. Forecasted Passenger ICE Emission Factors based on the CARB EMFAC2021 vehicle model for Alameda County.

3. EV electricity usage is based on passenger fuel efficiency (kwh/mile) from the CARB EMFAC2021 vehicle model for Alameda County.

4. Electricity Emission Factor is weighted to account for the specific opt-out rates of residential and non-residential customers and assumes implementation of BE-4.
*Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 19 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-4 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-4.1 Structural Change Continue to enforce the Hayward EV Charger Reach Code requiring electric vehicle charging stations in new
development projects.
16,014 88,718
T-4.2 Structural Change Work with Ava Community Energy to install 100 new publicly accessible EV chargers by 2030 through public private
partnerships and on City owned properties.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.3 Structural Change Continue to maintain a streamlined EV infrastructure permitting process and ordinance in accordance with AB
1236.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.4 Structural Change Require that new private parking lots grant zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) access to preferred parking spaces.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.5 Structural Change Coordinate with local agencies and community-based organizations, agencies, and non-profits to conduct zero- emission vehicle (ZEV) education events for residents and targeted events for low-income communities that would
evaluate the barriers to ZEV adoption, include information on costs/benefits of owning ZEVs, steps on how to receive
incentives for ZEVs, and other benefits.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.6 Education/Equity Explore opportunities with CARB, BAAQMD, or other agencies to start a purchase rebate program and provide higher trade- in value for combustion vehicles to assist lower-income households to purchase EVs.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 41 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-4.7 Equity Develop outreach and education materials and distribute to local businesses and organizations on the financial,
environmental, and health and safety benefits of ZEVs.

Provide information on available funding opportunities.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.8 Education Work with Ava Community Energy and PG&E to incentivize residential electric vehicle charger installations through on- bill financing
Supportive Supportive
T-4.9 Funding Evaluate opportunities for EV or hydrogen charging infrastructure through State and utility programs, like LCFS or PG&E EV Fast Charge Program. Disseminate information via outreach and education materials.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.10 Funding Partner with Ava Community Energy to aid in Ava Community Energy’s survey of existing publicly accessible electric vehicle chargers and their locations and identify a prioritized list of locations in Hayward for new electric vehicle charging
stations with particular consideration for equitable
distribution of chargers to residents of multi-family homes, low-income people, people on a fixed income, and
communities of color.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.11 Feasibility
Study/Partnership
Support zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) car share companies in coming to the City. Coordinate with car share companies and community-groups to develop an affordable, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) car share to serve affordable housing and/or multifamily developments with a priority to target low- income communities of color.

Supportive Supportive
T-4.12 Partnership Collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions and the Alameda County Transportation Commission to develop a connected network of ZEV car share.

Supportive Supportive
Measure T-5 Increase zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption by businesses to 10% by 2030 and 80% by 2045.

Background
The City has also adopted commercial ZEV adoption goals, with 10 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2045. This is backed by regulations that CARB adopted in June 2020, requiring truck manufacturers to transition from diesel trucks and vans to electric zero-emission trucks beginning in 2024, and establishing a target for every new truck sold in California to be zero-emission by 2045. 43 In 2023, CARB approved the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation, which requires a phased-in transition toward zero-emission medium-and-heavy duty vehicles. The regulation includes an end to combustion truck sales in 2036, a first-of-its-kind requirement. 4445 Commercial ZEV adoption is

43 CARB. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-takes-bold-step-reduce-truck- pollution#:~:text=SACRAMENTO%20%E2%80%93%20Today%2C%20the%20California%20Air,California%20will%20be%20zero%2Demissio n. Accessed June 2023
44 CARB. Advanced Clean Fleets. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-approves-groundbreaking-regulation-accelerates-deployment- heavy-duty-zevs-
protect#:~:text=The%20Advanced%20Clean%20Fleets%20rule%20includes%20an%20end%20to%20combustion,accelerated%20benefits %20for%20California%20communities.. Accessed June 2023
45 Insider. Amazon says it has more than a thousand electric Rivian vans making deliveries across the US – see how they were designed. https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-creating-fleet-of-electric-delivery-vehicles-rivian-2020-2 . Accessed June 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

42 projected to occur at a slower rate than passenger vehicle adoption, with the greatest decarbonization success projected in light-duty commercial vehicles.46 To accelerate commercial electric vehicle adoption in the City, the City plans to actively identify and engage businesses/employers with vehicle fleets to accelerate ZEV adoption. Actions T-6.2 and T-6.3 commit the City to engaging with local employers and business fleet owners in the City to identify incentives and opportunities for accelerated fleet conversion to ZEV. With Actions T-6.4 and T-6.1, the City has also committed to collaborating with key stakeholders, including local major employers, to develop best practices and resources outlining funding for ZEV infrastructure. For businesses in the City subject to CARB’s Advanced Clean Fleets rule and for those targeting accelerated ZEV adoption, the City will conduct a study to investigate specific opportunities for transitioning these vehicle fleets to ZEV (Action T-6.5).

Methodology and Assumptions
GHG reduction calculations for Measure T-5 were applied the same as those for Measure T-4, for passenger ZEVs. GHG emissions reductions from the adoption of ZEVs assumed a 10 percent adoption of ZEVs by 2030 and 80 percent by 2045. This results in a 3 percent and 50 percent increase in ZEV adoption by 2030 and 2045, respectively, compared with the forecasted ZEV adoption levels in those target years. GHG emissions reduction are calculated by multiplying the percent of ZEV adoption beyond the forecasted values by the commercial VMT. The weighted average commercial vehicle emission factor for internal combustion engines in the target years was applied to the calculated VMT reduction. This GHG reduction would be offset by electricity consumption which would generate GHG emissions in 2030. The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emission reductions from Measure T-5 are provided in Table 20.

Table 20 Measure T-5 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Commercial IC VMT (miles)1 75,010,498 61,580,840
Commercial VMT ICE Emission Factor (MT CO2e/VMT)2 0.00126 0.00121 EV adoption beyond baseline 3.4% 50.2%
EV electricity usage (kWh/mile)3 1.1 1.1
EV electricity usage from increased EV adoption (kWh) 2,776,090 32,872,322 Weighted electricity Emission Factor (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.000003 0 Emission Reduction from EV increased adoption (MT CO2e) 3,171 37,461 Emissions from electricity usage for EVs (MT CO2e) 9 0 Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 3,161 37,461
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; EV = electric vehicle

1. Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.

2. Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP. Forecasted Passenger ICE Emission Factors based on the CARB EMFAC2021 vehicle model for Alameda County.

3. EV electricity usage is based on commercial fuel efficiency (kwh/mile) from the CARB EMFAC2021 vehicle model for Alameda County.

46 Erica Schueller. FleetOwner. July 2021. What it will take to accelerate electric truck adoption. Accessed at:
https://www.fleetowner.com/drivers-seat/article/21167635/what-it-will-take-to-accelerate-electric-truck-adoption GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 43 Table 21 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-5 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-5.1 Structural Change Work with stakeholders to develop and implement a plan for City-supported accelerated fleet electrification.

As part of the plan, identify opportunities for accelerated fleet electrification and promote ZEV/EV adoption within business fleets.
3,161 37,461
T-5.2 Funding Identify incentives for accelerated business fleet electrification and communicate that information to
local businesses.

Supportive Supportive
T-5.3 Education Engage with local employers and business fleet owners in the City to identify opportunities for accelerated fleet conversion to ZEV/EV. Provide information on the
requirements of the Advanced Clean Fleets rule and
available funding sources for fleet replacements (e.g., LCFS, Clean Truck and Bus Voucher).

Supportive Supportive
T-5.4 Partnership Develop and maintain a collaborative of stakeholders (e.g., local major employers, commercial business) to
lead the creation of best practices and the pursuit of
funding for ZEV/EV infrastructure as well as public and private zero-emission business vehicle fleets.

Supportive Supportive
T-5.5 Feasibility Studies Conduct an inventory investigation of business vehicle fleets in Hayward and identify employers and businesses subject to the Advanced Clean Fleets rule as well as
those to target for accelerating ZEV/EV adoption.

Supportive Supportive
Measure T-6 Transition 15% of off-road equipment to zero-emission by 2030 and 80% by 2045
Background
As estimated in the 2019 GHG inventory, off-road equipment in the City accounts for almost 4 percent of the community’s GHG emissions. While this is only a small part of GHG emissions in the City, getting to carbon neutrality will involve decarbonizing most of the off-road equipment, which currently runs on gasoline, diesel, and natural gas. To support a gasoline and diesel phase-out ordinance for off-road equipment, Action T-6.1 commits the City to enforcing CARB’s regulations requiring most newly manufactures small off-road engines such as those found in leaf blowers, lawn mowers, and other equipment be zero emission starting in Model Year 2024. CARB regulations will also require generators and large pressure washers to be zero emission starting in Model Year 2028.47 Action T-6.2 commits the City to development and implementing a plan to replace all City owned end-of-life off-road equipment with zero-emission equipment and outlines a timeline for replacements that align with a transition of 15 percent of off-road equipment to zero-emission by 2030 and 80 percent by 2045.

Actions T-6.3, T-6.4, and T-6.5 promote more likely implementation of the regulations outlined above through increased funding opportunities for the City contractors, residents, and fleet operators, as well as providing stakeholders with information on carbon free off-road equipment

47 CARB.2021. CARB approves updated regulations requiring most new small off-road engines be zero emission by 2024 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

44 through the development of an off-road equipment replacement program/outreach campaign.

Through Actions T-7.6 and T-7.7, the City seeks to assess the technology and economic feasibility of replacing the City-owned off-road equipment fleets and identify fleets in the City with the highest decarbonization potential.

Methodology and Assumptions
In the 2019 GHG Inventory, a majority of off-road emissions (60 percent) were associated with diesel-powered equipment, 20 percent were associated with gasoline equipment, and 19 percent were associated with natural gas. While some off-road equipment does not have market-ready zero-emissions alternatives, lawn and garden equipment, light-duty off-road equipment, and portable off-road equipment can generally be electrified or use biodiesel today. In 2030, it is forecasted that portable and lawn and garden equipment would make up 25% total off-road equipment in the City.48 In recent years market demand in North America for electric lawn equipment has dramatically increased, with the market share of electric equipment increasing from over 10% between 2015 and 2020 to make up about 40% of the market.49 Further, market research shows battery-power lawn equipment sector growing at a rate three times faster than gas50 and that customer demand for electric-lawn equipment is dramatically increasing. For example, electric lawn mower market is forecasted to have a compound annual growth rate of ~5% between 2023- 2030.51 Therefore, a 15% reduction in overall offroad emissions is feasible through educating impacted businesses about CARB’s regulations requiring zero emission small off-road engines, including leaf blowers and lawn mowers, starting in model year 2024 and promoting available incentives to the community, such as the various Zero-Emission Landscaping Equipment Incentive Programs52 and Clean Off-Road Equipment Voucher53, for transitioning to electric alternatives. The GHG reductions for Measure T-6 were quantified by assuming that actions, when implemented, would achieve a 15 percent reduction and 80 percent reduction in total off-road emissions by 2030 and 2045, respectively. Off-road diesel, gasoline, and natural gas emissions were estimated by using CARB EMFAC2021 fuel usage data for Alameda County apportioned to the City of Hayward and multiplied by respective emissions factors.54 Emissions associated with electricity usage from increased use of electric alternatives was calculated by converting the forecasted gallons of fuel consumed to gasoline gallon equivalents which was then converted to electricity usage. The weighted communitywide electricity emission factor was applied to the electricity usage to estimate reduced emissions associated with that amount of fuel reduction. Sources for the emission and conversion factors used are detailed in Table 22.

Table 22 Measure T-6 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations

Inputs and Assumptions
Off-Road Emissions from Diesel, Gasoline and LPG in 2019 (MT CO2e)1 24,287 GHG Emissions Reductions Calculations
Year 2030 2045

48 Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP. 49 https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2021/06/30/electric-lawn-care/ 50 https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2021/06/30/electric-lawn-care/ 51 https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-lawn-mower-market-report 52 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-landscaping-equipment/zero-emission-landscaping-equipment-incentive 53 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/clean-off-road-equipment-voucher-incentive-project/about 54 CARB. 2021. EMFAC21. https://arb.ca.gov/emfac/emissions-inventory/c58cfe3d0072dfc3ea8eae4234049042e52ed4df. Accessed June 27, 2023
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 45

Decarbonized Percentage 15% 80%
Forecasted Total Off-Road Emissions (MT CO2e)2 29,084 28,177 Total Fuel Used (GGE) 2,3 3,346,962 3,025,552
Reduced Off-road Emissions (MT CO2e) 4,363 22,542
Total Fuel Reduced (GGE)2,3 502,044 2,420,442
Electricity usage from increased electric option adoption (kWh)3 16,194,976 78,078,773
Weighted Communitywide Electricity EF (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.0000031 0 Emissions from electricity usage for electric equipment (MT CO2e)2 51 0
Total Reductions (MT CO2e) 4,312 22,542
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; VMT = vehicle miles traveled; NA = Not Applicable

1. 2019 Community GHG Emissions Inventory. See Appendix B of the CAP.

2. Legislative Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.

3. Fuel Conversion Factors to Gasoline Gallon Equivalent are sourced from the U.S. Department of Energy. https://epact.energy.gov/fuel-conversion-factors.

4. Weighted communitywide electricity emission factors assumes the implementation of Measure BE-4. *Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 23 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-6 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-6.1 Structural
Change
Support and promote CARB’s regulations requiring most newly manufactured small off-road engines such as those found in leaf blowers, lawn mowers, and other equipment to be zero emission starting in Model Year 2024. Phase 2 of the regulations will be implemented in Model Year 2028, when the emission standards for generators and large pressure washers will be zero. In addition, work with Hayward Chamber of Commerce to disseminate
information regarding the regulation to impacted businesses (e.g., lawn equipment dealers, commercial landscapers, construction companies) and promote transition of equipment sales and equipment use to electric alternatives.
4,312 22,542
T-6.2 Structural
Change
Develop and implement a plan to replace all City owned end-of-life off-road equipment with zero-emission equipment. Plan should include evaluation of current City-owned equipment, alternative low or zero-emission options, prioritize equipment to replace first (e.g., largest GHG emission reduction potential), and a timeline for replacements that align with goals and feasibility of replacement.

Supportive Supportive
T-6.3 Education Develop an Off-road Equipment Replacement Program and Outreach Campaign that provides information to contractors, residents, and fleet operators in Hayward regarding alternatives to fossil-fueled off-road equipment, public health and safety benefits of alternative equipment technology, and funding opportunities available (i.e., Clean Off-Road Equipment Voucher Incentive Program CORE]), Zero-Emission Landscaping Equipment Incentive Programs).[CORE]).

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

46 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
T-6.4 Funding Partner with BAAQMD to identify funding opportunities to encourage residents to replace gas-powered landscaping
equipment and off-road engines with zero emission equipment.

Supportive Supportive
T-6.5 Partnership/
Funding
Partner with BAAQMD to develop a rebate and incentive program for upgrading off-road equipment and switching to biofuels.

Supportive Supportive
T-6.6 Feasibility
Study
Conduct a study to assess the technological and economic feasibility of replacing the City-owned off-road equipment fleets.

Supportive Supportive
T-6.7 Feasibility
Study
Conduct an investigation inventory of major off-road equipment fleets in Hayward and identify fleets with highest decarbonization potential.

Supportive Supportive
Measure T-7 Increase municipal passenger zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption to 75% by 2030 and 100% by 2045 and decarbonize emergency and heavy-duty vehicles as feasible.

Background
Measure T-7 seeks to align the City’s municipal vehicle fleet with the State of California’s Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) goals outlined in the Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, to achieve 100 percent ZEV vehicle sales by 2035, and the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation, requiring a phased-in transition toward zero-emission medium-and-heavy duty vehicles.55,56 To align with these aggressive State goals, the City seeks to increase municipal passenger ZEV adoption to 75 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2045 and decarbonize emergency and heavy-duty vehicles as feasible. These targets, once achieved, will make Hayward a leader in California municipal fleet decarbonization. Specific structural changes action for Measure T-7, include establishing and adopting a ZEV fleet conversion and purchase policy including a schedule for replacement of fleet vehicles to transition 15 percent of the fleet to ZEV by end of FY2023 and 50 percent by end of FY2030 (Action T-7.1). To support this, the City will conduct a feasibility and cost assessment to determine the number of EV/ZEV charge and funds needed to support the fleet transition (Action T-7.2). The City will pursue funding opportunities to support this transition through the California Air Resources Board’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project, the Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Program (Action -T-7.3), and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program (Action T-7.4).

Methodology and Assumptions
Since vehicles that are included in the City vehicle fleet are also registered to an address in the City, there is risk for double counting emission reductions and are therefore, not separately quantified.

Table 24 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure T-7 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)

55 State of California. 2022. Advanced Clean Cars II. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/advanced- clean-cars-ii. Accessed June, 27 2023
56 CARB. Advanced Clean Fleets. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-approves-groundbreaking-regulation-accelerates-deployment- heavy-duty-zevs-
protect#:~:text=The%20Advanced%20Clean%20Fleets%20rule%20includes%20an%20end%20to%20combustion,accelerated%20benefits %20for%20California%20communities.. Accessed June 2023
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 47 2030 2045
T-7.1 Structural
Change
Establish and adopt Zero-emission Fleet Conversion and Purchase Policy that requires new, and replacement municipal fleet vehicle purchases are EVs or ZEVs. The policy will also include a schedule for replacement of fleet vehicles to meet a 100% carbon neutral fleet by 2040.

Supportive Supportive
T-7.2 Structural
Change/
Feasibility
Study
Conduct feasibility and cost assessment to determine the number of EV/ZEV chargers and funds needed to support the fleet transition to 50% EV/ZEV by 2030. Expand EV/ZEV charging infrastructure for city fleet and employees in alignment with feasibility study.

Supportive Supportive
T-7.3 Funding Secure funding from programs such as the California Air Resources Board's Clean Vehicle Rebate Project and the Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Program to increase procurement of EV or ZEV cars, trucks, and other vehicles and installation of EV/ZEV charging/fueling infrastructure at municipal facilities.

Supportive Supportive
T-7.4 Funding Evaluate credit generation opportunities within the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program for ZEV/EV fueling and charging stations for the municipal fleet to offset cost of infrastructure development needed to support transition.

Supportive Supportive

2.3 Water
Measure WW-1. Reduce water consumption by 15% by 2030 and maintain it through 2045.

Background
The City’s primary source of potable water is purchased from San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) Regional Water System (RWS). Approximately 85 percent of the water supply to the SFPUC RWS originate in the Hetch Hetchy watershed, located in Yosemite National Park.57 GHG emissions from water supply are generated by the electricity used to convey, treat, and distribute water. Although the water and wastewater sector GHG emissions only account for less than one percent of communitywide emissions in the City and will decrease to zero in 2045 as electricity becomes 100 percent carbon-free, access to clean and safe water supply has innumerable quality of life benefits. Residential and commercial buildings use water both indoors for cooking, cleaning, bathing, and toilet flushing, and outdoors to irrigate landscaping and maintain pools and fountains. Water efficiency measures not only reduce the amount of water used but also reduce the amount of energy needed to heat water because of conservation. Additionally, water consumption and wastewater generation are interconnected, therefore water conservation efforts will lead to decreases in wastewater generated, as less water is treated through the wastewater system.

The City has been successful in reducing potable water consumption through implementation of programs, policies, and regulations including the Bay-Friendly Water Efficient Landscape ordinance (Action WW-1.1), Water Conservation Standards (Action WW-1.2), and Recycled Water Program (Action WW-1.4). Measure WW-1 seeks to continue these same programs and efforts, while also focusing efforts on several new actions, including Action WW-1.11, developing a recycled water master plan to further expand recycled water use and establish a road for potable water

57 City of Hayward. 2021. 2020 Urban Water Management Plan. https://www.hayward- ca.gov/sites/default/files/Hayward_2020%20UWMP_Public%20Release_2021%20July%202.pdf. Access June 27. 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

48 replacement, where appropriate. The City’s efforts to lessen dependence on imported water through increased use of recycled water can improve the City’s adaptive capacity to climate change by enhancing the capacity of local sources of water and reducing the GHG emissions associated with the high energy-intensity of imported water. While the GHG emission reductions from these efficiencies are not quantified due to the complexity of interactions with various agencies, they provide more evidence that the City will be able to achieve the established water reduction targets as part of Measures WW-1.

Actions including WW-1.3, WW-1.4, WW-1.5, WW-1.6, WW-1.7, WW-1.8, WW-1.9, WW-1.10, an WW-1.12 will further support the City’s water conservation efforts through continuing and expanding public education campaigns and programs to highlight water conversation practices, promote rebates and incentives for water conserving devices, and ensure access to information and resources to low-income and disadvantaged communities. Engagement on these topics has been shown to improve the efficacy of structural changes to water systems and build communitywide trust and stewardship.58
Methodology and Assumptions
The GHG emission reductions associated with Measure WW-1 are a result of the decreased energy consumption required to convey, pump, treat, and distribute potable water to end users.

Additionally, water conservation efforts will lead to decreased wastewater generation and therefore reduced energy consumption required to treat wastewater. It is expected that the collective efforts of all actions under Measure WW-1 will result in a per-capita reduction of water consumption of 15 percent by 2030 and maintain that 15 percent reduction through 2045, below the 2019 baseline.

The reduced quantity of water was multiplied by the energy intensity factor for potable water and wastewater to determine the electricity consumption for water and wastewater conveyance and treatment. Assumptions regarding the average water and wastewater energy intensity and emission factors are provided in Table 25. Additional details regarding energy intensity can be found in Appendix B of the CAP.

Table 25 Measure WW-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Water
Baseline Water Use per Service Population (MG)1 0.0002 0.0002 Service Population2 239,498 261,673
Forecasted Water Use (MG)2 52 57
Targeted Water Use (MG)3 44 48
Saved Water (MG) 7.81 8.53
Average Energy Intensity of Water Supply (kWh/MG)1 1,318 1,318 Electricity Saved (kwh) 10,289 11,242
Electricity Emission Factor Adjusted for SB 100 (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.00006 0 Total Water Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 1 0
Wastewater

58 Dean AJ, Fielding KS, Ross H and Newton F. (2016) Community Engagement in the Water Sector: An outcome-focused review of different engagement approaches. Melbourne, Australia: Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities. Accessed here:
https://watersensitivecities.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TMR_A2-3_CommunityEngagementWaterSector-1.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 49 Baseline Wastewater Generation per Service Person (MG)1 0.0263 0.0263 Service Population1 167,425 184,358
Forecasted Wastewater Generation (MG)2 4,409 4,855
Targeted Wastewater Generation (MG)3 3,748 4,127
Reduced Wastewater (MG) 661 728
Average Energy Intensity of Wastewater (kWh/MG)1 955 955 Electricity Saved (kwh) 631,655 695,539
Electricity Emission Factor Adjusted for SB 100 (MT CO2e/kWh)4 0.00006 0 Total Wastewater Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 35 0
Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 36 0
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour; MG = million gallons

1. 2019 Community GHG Emissions Inventory. See Appendix B of the CAP.

2. GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.

3. Targeted water use determined as a 15% reduction in per capita water usage (15%) multiplied by the service population.

4. The electricity emission factor used is based on the forecasted emission factors for PG&E. *Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 26 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure WW-1 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
WW-1.1 Structural Change Continue to implement the City’s Bay-Friendly Water Efficient Landscape ordinance applicable to all land use types to decrease water consumption.
36 0
WW-1.2 Structural Change Continue to implement and enforce the Water Conservation Standards within the Municipal Code via the Nonessential water Use Prohibition of Wasteful Water
Practices Ordinance for households, businesses,
industries, and public infrastructure.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.3 Structural Change Continue to implement rebate and water conservation device tracking system to track the number of rebates
and water devices distributed.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.4 Structural Change Continue to implement the Recycled Water Program which includes expanding facilities if necessary to deliver recycled water to additional customers, working with
customers to complete site retrofits, connecting
customers to the recycled water system, and ensuring
customer deliveries.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.5 Education/
Funding
Continue to offer water conservation programs to the
community including educational programs like water
education program for schools and water wise landscape
classes as well as incentives like free water conserving deceives, and rebates for rain barrels and turf
replacement.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.6 Education/
Equity
As part of the water conservation programs offered
implement a public education campaign that in addition
to highlighting water conservation practices, with focus on low-income households with high utility bill burdens.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

50 Action ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
WW-1.7 Equity Ensure that water conservation educational materials, programs and outreach efforts are in multiple languages and accessible for low-income or disadvantaged
communities.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.8 Equity Perform targeted outreach to low-income communities and elderly households to provide free water
conservation devices and aid disadvantaged community
members in obtaining available rebates for water
conservation devices.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.9 Partnerships/
Equity
Partner with programs such as Green House Call or other similar programs to support community members with
installation of water saving devices with a particular focus of support for low-income, elderly, or disadvantaged
elderly residents.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.10 Partnership Continue to coordinate with commercial and industrial customers including the Hayward Area Recreation and
Park District and the Hayward Unified School District to advance water recycling programs.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.11 Feasibility Studies Develop a Recycled Water Master Plan to assess the feasibility of expanding the recycled water system and
establish a roadmap for a recycled water expansion
program. The plan will identify the locations available for recycled water use, the capacity needed to fully replace potable water use at identified locations and establish a schedule for potable water replacement with recycled
water for appropriate applications.

Supportive Supportive
WW-1.12 Education Promote the use of on‐site gray water and rainwater collection systems
Supportive Supportive

2.4 Waste
Measure SW-1 Implement and enforce SB 1383 requirements to reduce communitywide landfilled organics 75% by 2025 and 90% by 2045.

Background
Organic materials are the focus of the recent landmark legislation SB 1383 (Short-Lived Climate Pollutants: Organic Waste Reductions). This new State law has the immediate goal of reducing organic waste sent to landfills and the ultimate objective of reaching statewide methane emissions reduction goals. Specifically, it sets a statewide goal for the reduction in organic waste to landfills – 50 percent by 2020 and 75 percent by 2025 – in addition to the recovery of 20 percent of edible food waste for human consumption. SB 1383 requires local governments to provide organics collection to all generators and require all generators to subscribe. It also has specific mandates for container systems, education, and outreach programs, monitoring and contamination reporting, and enforcement of regulations. Full SB 1383 implementation began in 2022.59

59 California Air Resources Board. 2017. Short-Lived Climate Pollution Reduction Strategy. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/slcp-strategy-

GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 51 The City is adopting and continuing the implementation of several structural changes including procurement policies to comply with SB 1383, exclusive hauling agreement with Waste Management of Alameda County (WMAC), edible food recovery ordinance, a fee system for incorrectly sorted materials with sensitivity to shared collection (Action SW-1.1, Action SW-1.2, Action SW-1.3, and Action SW-1.4). The City will support these structural changes with various education and engagement efforts to promote waste diversion and implementation of SB 1383 requirements to business owners, generators, haulers, facilities, schools, local community organizations, and local public agencies (Action SW-1.5, SW-1.6, SW-1.7, SW-1.9, SW-1.10, SW-1.11, and SW-1.13). The City will also support increased landfill diversion through partnerships to increase funding opportunities associated with edible food recovery and composing/waste containers (Actions SW-1.8 and SW-1.12). Additionally, through Action SW-1.14, the City will partner with StopWaste to conduct a feasibility study and identify next steps to ensure there is sufficient edible food reuse infrastructure in Hayward to achieve the recovery goals.

Methodology and Assumptions
Through the combination of all actions for Measure SW-1, as discussed above, it is assumed that waste reduction targets in line with SB 1383 will be met. A landfilled organic waste reduction target consistent with SB 1383 requirements is assumed in the GHG emissions calculations for Measure SW-1. This reduction target is applied to the total emissions associated with solid waste disposal because nearly all GHG emissions from the natural decay of solid waste come from organic waste.60 The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emission reductions from Measure SW-1 are provided in Table 27.

Table 27 Measure SW-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Solid Waste Emissions1 47,899 52,334
Organic Waste Target Achievement 75% 90%
Total GHG Emissions Reductions (MT CO2e) 35,924 47,101
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide

1. GHG Emissions Forecast. See Appendix B of the CAP.
*Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 28 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure SW-1 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
SW-1.1 Structural Change Adopt procurement policies to comply with SB 1383 requirements for jurisdictions to purchase recovered
organic waste products.
35,924 47,101

final#:~:text=The%20Short%2DLived%20Climate%20Pollutant,)%2C%20and%20anthropogenic%20black%20carbon. Accessed June 27, 2023.
60 According to the Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Appendix E – Solid Waste Emission Activities and Sources, GHG emissions are generated by non-biologic wastes only if they are combusted.

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

52 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
SW-1.2 Structural Change Continue to implement exclusive hauling agreement with Waste Management of Alameda County (WMAC)
that regulates haulers collecting organic waste,
including collection program requirements and
identification of organic waste receiving facilities.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.3 Structural Change Continue to implement edible food recovery ordinance for edible food generators, food recovery
services, or organizations that are required to comply
with SB 1383. Ordinance requires all residential and
commercial customers to subscribe to an organic
waste collection program and/or report self-hauling
or backhauling of organics.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.4 Structural Change Implement enforcement and fee for incorrectly sorted materials with sensitivity to shared collection. Utilize funding to implement programs and efforts to
increase communitywide organic waste diversion.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.5 Education Work with StopWaste to conduct targeted outreach with food recovery organizations, generators, haulers,
facilities, and local agencies to promote strategies to implement requirements of SB 1383
Supportive Supportive
SW-1.6 Education Encourage businesses to educate their employees about organic waste diversion and proper sorting
annually by providing training resources and rebate
program to fund employee time for training.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.7 Partnership Partner with local community organizations, public agencies like StopWaste and businesses to implement
all required activities under SB 1383.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.8 Equity Provide free compost bins and kitchen-top food waste containers to low-income communities of colors and
elderly households in order to increase compost
participation. Evaluate opportunities to have a
community compost hub that is easily accessible to
disadvantaged neighborhoods
Supportive Supportive
SW-1.9 Equity Establish relationships with multi-family property owners/managers to develop signage for their
properties. Present at all Home-Owner Associations in
Hayward annually and provide supplies and education
for proper sorting.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.10 Partnership Establish an edible food recovery program to minimize food waste. Leverage CalRecycle support for
projects that prevent food waste or rescue edible
food. Partner with existing food pantries like CSUEB,
South Hayward Parish to identify and advertise
locations for surplus food to be taken in the
community.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 53 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
SW-1.11 Partnership Work with contracted hauler to:
▪ Provide quarterly route reviews to
identify prohibited contaminants
potentially found in containers
that are collected along route.
▪ Clearly label all new containers
indicating which materials are
accepted in each container, and
by January 1, 2024 place or
replace labels on all containers.
▪ Develop and implement a
comprehensive monitoring and
quality control program with a
focus on consumer behavior
change.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.2 Partnership/Funding Work with local organizations, StopWaste, and investigate various funding/ grant opportunities to
fund edible food recovery organizations so they can
expand and handle increased volume.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.13 Partnerships Partner with schools, retirement communities, and other large institutions to create waste diversion and
prevention program/procedure/plan.

Supportive Supportive
SW-1.14 Feasibility Studies/
Partnership
Partner with StopWaste to conduct a feasibility study
and identify next steps to ensure edible food reuse
infrastructure in Hayward is sufficient to accept
capacity needed to recover 20% of edible food
disposed of within Hayward.

Supportive Supportive
Measure SW-2 Increase communitywide overall landfill diversion of waste to 75% by 2030 and 85% by 2045.

Background
To reach its zero waste goals, the City must increase community-wide overall landfill diversion of waste. Measure SW-2 and associated actions are anticipated to move the City towards an overall reduction in inorganic waste disposal but will not contribute to quantified emissions reductions targets. Measure SW-2 will contribute to the City’s goal to reduce overall waste generation but will not directly contribute to the City’s quantified emissions reduction target, which is associated with organic waste reduction, as supported by Measure SW-1. Emphasis is placed on reduction of organic waste sent to landfills, as landfilled organic waste is the major source of Hayward’s waste-related greenhouse gas emissions.

The City is developing, adopting, and continuing the implementation of several structural changes actions including the Organics Reduction and Recycling Ordinance (ORRO), the hauling agreements and municipal codes with recent circular economy bills integrated, the Hayward Construction and Demolition Debris Recycling Ordinance, a Zero Waste Strategic Plan, a requirement for large events to hire an event waste management team, a fee for single-use foodware, post-consumer recycled content requirements, and bans on “problem materials” (i.e., items without means of recycled or recycling markets) (Actions SW-2.1, SW-2.2, SW-2.3, SW-2.4, SW-2.5, SW-2.7, SW-2.12, SW-2.14).

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

54 Other actions, including Action SW-2.6, Action SW-2.8, Action SW-2.9, Action SW-2.10, and Action SW.13, commit the City to partnering with Waste Management of Alameda County, StopWaste, the business community, local organizations, schools, and libraries to promote waste prevention and waste diversion best practices by creating multi-lingual education materials and providing technical assistance. Through Action SW-2.11, the City will conduct a consumption-based GHG emissions inventory to understand community habits and potential emission reduction opportunities. Action SW-2.15 commits the City to continue participation in the Alameda County All in Eats initiative by identifying funding opportunities to increase the circular food economy.

Methodology and Assumptions
Measure SW-2 is intended to be supportive of the overall zero waste goals of the CAP and to the GHG emission reductions associated with Measure SW-1. As such, Measure SW-2 does not have any direct GHG emissions reduction that can be quantified and is considered to GHG emissions reduction elsewhere.

Table 29 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure SW-2 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
SW-2.1 Structural Change Continue to implement the Organics Reduction and Recycling Ordinance (ORRO) adopted in November 2021
in alignment with the Countywide ORRO ordinance.

Support StopWaste and County Environmental Health in
the enforcement of the ORRO within the City.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.2 Structural Change Review recent circular economy bills signed by the governor (i.e., SB 343, AB 881, AB 1201, AB 962, AB
1276) and incorporate requirements into hauling
agreements, and municipal codes for full-service
restaurants and local manufacturing businesses.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.3 Structural Change Continue to enforce the Hayward Construction and Demolition Debris Recycling Ordinance.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.4 Structural Change Adopt a Citywide Zero Waste Goal and develop a Zero Waste Strategic Plan to increase diversion from the
landfill by 85% 2045.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.5 Structural Change Create a requirement for large events to hire an event waste management team.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.6 Partnership Regularly evaluate and update new franchise agreement with Waste Management of Alameda
County to meet SB 1383 requirements and to
implement new components to further divert waste
from landfills. Work with (WMAC) to determine data
necessary to meet zero waste goals and establish
protocol for regular collection and reporting of
associated metrics. Identify dedicated staff responsible for this.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.7 Structural Change/
Funding
Require food service providers to implement a fee for
single-use food ware.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 55 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
SW-2.8 Education/
Equity
Partner with StopWaste to conduct targeted, multi-
lingual, culturally appropriate, and geographically
diverse waste prevention educational and technical
assistance campaigns based on outcomes of a waste
characterization study (WCS). Such as food waste
prevention, edible food recovery strategies, proper
storage, how to fix clothes/electronics, how to donate, reusable alternatives, effects of over consumption,
sustainable consumption habits, buying second hand,
buying durable, sharing, repurposing. Continue to
conduct outreach regarding AB 1276 to full-service
restaurants.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.9 Partnership Continue to work with StopWaste and haulers to monitor participation in residential recycling programs, create education materials for the community, provide
technical assistance to business to implement
mandatory recycling, and identify other opportunities
and means to promote zero waste efforts.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.10 Partnership Work with StopWaste and the business community to design and promote extended producer responsibility
such as take-back programs.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.11 Feasibility Study Conduct a consumption-based GHG emissions inventory to understand the community’s worst consumption
habits and emission reduction potential and provide
educational materials on a closed-loop circular
economy.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.12 Structural Change Work with local businesses to establish post-consumer recycled content requirements that meet SB 343
recyclability claims as part of their purchasing criteria.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.13 Partnership/Equity Partner with local organizations, schools, and libraries to establish pop-up repair cafes for commonly broken
and easily repaired items. Partner with the library to
promote reuse by increasing accessibility to shared
tools through a tool lending library.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.14 Structural Change Based on existing StopWaste waste characterization studies and Litterati litter assessment, increase bans on “problem materials” (i.e., items without means of
recycling or recycling markets, such as sale of
polystyrene, plastic packaging, straws, plastics #4-7,
mixed materials). Enforce the single-use plastic pre-
checkout ban, by January 1, 2025, in alignment with SB- 1046.

Supportive Supportive
SW-2.15 Funding Explore funding opportunities to increase the circular food economy.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

56 2.5 Carbon Sequestration
Measure CS-1 Increase carbon sequestration by planting and maintaining 1,000 new trees annually through 2030 to sequester carbon and create urban shade to reduce heat island effect.

Background
The City is generally considered a built-out City where a majority of new development or growth will involve the redevelopment of underutilized parcels or renovation of existing structures. Although built-out, the City has the opportunity to engage in carbon sequestration activities through enhancing open space, urban greening, and protecting and increasing the City’s urban forest or tree stock. Over time as emissions are removed from more and more sectors, carbon sequestration will play an increasingly important role in California’s ability to achieve carbon neutrality. The City currently has approximately 30,000 trees within its borders.61 Measure CS-1 strives to enhance the City’s ability to plant more trees in the public right of way and preserve or replace trees that are intended to be removed from private property. Specifically, Action CS-1.1, proposed an update to the tree preservation ordinance by Q2 2024 to ensure existing carbon stock is maintained and that replacement trees are climate resilient and rough tolerant. The updated ordinance would include a development requirement to protect or replace value-to-value existing trees and greenspace and require a cash mitigation fee equal to the value of tree removed. In order to reach the target of planting 7,000 net new trees by 2030, the City will need to maintain the current tree stock and plant about 1,000 net new trees each year. Potential for planting new trees to meet the targets would be identified through an Urban Forest Management Plan developed as part of Action CS-1.2. The City is also committed to conducting several feasibility studies to identify the best locations for new greenbelts for wildfire defense and risk reduction (CS-1.13), identify areas in the City that have below average canopy coverage (CS-1.6), and identity and map public spaces that can be converted to green space (CS-1.3). To encourage tree planting, the City is committed to pursuing partnerships, providing educational information on climate appropriate trees and providing funding options to community members, community groups and businesses through Actions CS-1.4, Action CS-1.7, Action CS-1.8, Action CS-1.9, Action CS-1.10, Action CS-1.11, Action CS-1.12. Through Action CS-1.5, the City committed to adopting a standard policy and set of practices to expand trees and vegetation between busy roadways and development to minimize pollutants from traffic.

Methodology and Assumptions
The actions making up this measure align with the best practices in urban forestry that have been shown to be effective ways to increase and maintain tree stocks within the urban environment.62 As such, it is assumed that through implementation of these actions that the goal of this measure will be reached and the tree stock maintained. GHG emission reductions were estimated based on the number of trees to be added to the inventory and the average CO2e accumulation factor per tree (0.0354 MT CO2e/tree/year).63 The calculations and assumptions used to estimate emission reductions from Measure CS.1 are provided in Table 30.

61 City of Hayward Landscape Maintenance Division. 2023. Urban Forest. https://www.hayward-ca.gov/your- government/departments/landscape-maintenance-division. Accessed June 27, 2023 62 Michael Leff, The Sustainable Urban Forest: A Step-by-Step Approach. U.S. Forest Service and Davey Institute, 2016. https://www.itreetools.org/documents/175/Sustainable_Urban_Forest_Guide_14Nov2016.pdf. Accessed July 20, 2023 63CAPCOA. 2011. Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures. http://www.capcoa.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/CAPCOA- Quantification-Report-9-14-Final.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023 GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 57 Although not quantified herein, urban greening can further reduce building carbon emissions by reducing the heat island effect in cities which reduces the need to rely on air conditioning in homes.64
Table 30 Measure CS-1 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Newly Planted Trees 6,000 21,000
Tree Sequestration Factor (MT CO2e/tree/year)1 0.0354 0.0354 Total GHG Emissions Sequestered (MT CO2e) 212 743
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour

1. Default annual CO2e sequestration per tree per year with a maximum lifespan of 20 years per tree is 0.0354 MT CO2e/tree/year was obtained from CAPCOA. 2010. Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures. *Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 31 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure CS-1 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
CS-1.1 Structural Change Update the Tree Preservation Ordinance by Q2 2024 to maintain existing carbon stock is maintained and that
replacement trees that are climate resilient and drought tolerant for Hayward’s climate. Ordinance updates may
include development requirements to protect or replace
value-to-value existing trees and greenspace; and a
requirement for a cash mitigation fee equal to the value of trees removed.
212 743
CS-1.2 Structural Change Develop and adopt an Urban Forest Management Plan that identifies: City’s potential capacity for new tree planting; timeframe and mechanism for implementation;
a management plan for existing trees; and a tracking
system to assess progress towards annual benchmark.
(Replaces existing General Plan program HQL-5.)
Supportive Supportive
CS-1.3 Feasibility Study Identify and map public spaces that can be converted to green space, including freeway airspace that can be
made into green space, vertical walls that can be planted with vines, and rooftops of public buildings that can be developed into gardens.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.4 Partnership/Funding Partner with community groups to apply for community garden grants and develop new or expand existing
community gardens based on the identified public spaces available for green space conversion.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.5 Equity Adopt a standard policy and set of practices for expanding the urban tree canopy and placing vegetative
barriers between busy roadways and developments to
reduce exposure to air pollutants from traffic.

Supportive Supportive

64 The Trust for Public Land (TPL). Quantifying the greenhouse gas benefits of urban parks. August 2008. Accessed June 27, 2023 City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

58 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
CS-1.6 Feasibility
Study/Equity
Conduct an urban canopy study to identify areas in
Hayward that have below average canopy coverage and
implement a tree planting program focusing on the least covered portions of the City. Establish a goal of having no significant difference in canopy coverage between high
and low-income areas citywide by 2030.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.7 Education In addition, or as an expansion to the Adopt-a-Block Program establish an adopt-a-tree or adopt-a-street
program that is specific to further greening and tree
planting. The program will enable individuals, businesses, and community organizations to plant and care for trees in selected communities. Program should provide
formalized information on appropriate trees eligible for planting in Hayward (i.e., native, drought tolerant,
locations)
Supportive Supportive
CS-1.8 Funding Dedicate staff time to obtaining grant funding for tree planting. Identify and apply for applicable federal (e.g., USDA) and state (e.g., California ReLeaf, Affordable
Housing and Sustainable Communities Program (AHSC),
Urban and Community Forestry Program) grants for tree
planting and maintenance projects.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.9 Funding Explore opportunities to fund the Urban Forest Management Program. Possibilities include use of general tax revenues, permit fees, or revenues from the
municipal tree ordinance enforcement.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.10 Funding Establish a Tree Trust or Tree Endowment where the interest on the principal can be used for purchasing trees, paying for tree maintenance, or for staff resources for the Urban Forest Management Program.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.11 Partnerships Partner with private developers, CSU, Chabot College, HARD, HUSD, and other community-based organizations
to support and contribute to the Urban Forest
Management Program
Supportive Supportive
CS-1.12 Funding Establish alternative fee mechanisms, similar to the SF Carbon Fund, to fund nature-based solutions. By 2026,
create permanent code and financial incentives for
homeowners and other private landowners to preserve
existing mature trees and shrubs and to plant local native species.

Supportive Supportive
CS-1.13 Feasibility Study Identify existing greenbelts and the best locations for new greenbelts for wildfire defense and risk reduction.

Incorporate these locations into comprehensive wildfire planning at regional, county, city, and community levels and in all municipal service reviews.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 59 Measure CS-2 Increase carbon sequestration by applying 0.08 tons of compost per capita annually in the community through 2030.

Background
SB 1383 requires each jurisdiction in California to procure recycled organics products to meet specific procurement targets, as notified by CalRecycle by 2022. Measure CS-2 commits the City to meeting these procurement requirements. The City expects to meet these requirements through the procurement of compost and will work with Alameda County and StopWaste to identify opportunities for a regional compost procurement program (Action CS-2.8), resulting in carbon sequestration benefits for the City. The application of suitable composted organic material to existing opens spaces can be used to enhance the sequestration of CO2e. The application of compost allows for carbon to be stored in the soil and, over time, to be captured in the stems, leaves, and roots of grasses, woody plants, and trees.

The City is committed to enforcing and adopting structural changes including a minimum level of compost application per year on applicable/appropriate land throughout the City (Action CS-2.1), procurement policies to comply with SB 1383 requirements to purchase recovered organic waste products (Action CS-2.2) and urban park guidelines promoting carbon sequestration (Action CS-2.3).

Through Action CS-2.4 and Action CS-2.10, the City will conduct a feasibility study to identify location in the City to apply compost and opportunities to enhance or create new natural areas to increase carbon sequestration potential. The City is seeking to partner with StopWaste, Chabot College, Cal State East Bay, and local schools to promote best practices for using compost in landscaping and increase application (Action CS-2.5, Action CS-2.7, and Action CS-2.9). Through Action CS-2.11, the City will create and distribute resources to train residents, City gardening staff and other entities on how to both increase carbon sequestration and biodiversity through landscaping. Finally, the City will explore funding opportunities associated with the use of the parkland in-lieu fees from the updated City’s Property Developers- Obligations for Parks and Recreation Ordinance to implement the Carbon Management Activities Program (Action CS-2.6).

Methodology and Assumptions
Guidance from CalRecycle has set a total population procurement target for the City of 158,089 tons of recovered organic waste products (e.g., compost).65 The City procurement requirement per capita, 0.08 tons/person, was calculated using the total population procurement target for the City and the total population forecasted for 2030 and 2045. Based on this procurement target, the City’s population, and the carbon sequestration potential per ton of mixed organics compost (0.23 MT CO2e/ton)66, the carbon sequestration potential for the City’s compost procurement for 2030 and 2045 was calculated. The methods and assumptions used to calculate the GHG emissions reductions associated with Measure CS-2 are shown in the Table 32.

Table 32 Measure CS-2 GHG Emission Reduction Calculations Calculation Factor 2030 2045
Population 167,425 184,358

65 CalRecycle. 2021. Jurisdiction Procurement Targets Based on January 1, 2021 Population Estimates. https://calrecycle.ca.gov/organics/slcp/procurement/recoveredorganicwasteproducts. Accessed June 27, 2023. 66 Industrial Strategies Division, Transportation and Toxics Division, California Air Resources Board, & California Environmental Protection Agency. 2017. Method for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions from Diversion of Organic Waste from Landfills to Compost Facilities. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/cc/waste/cerffinal.pdf. Accessed June 27, 2023.

City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

60 Estimated procurement requirement1 13,394 14,748
Per Capita Sequestration (MT CO2e/person)2 0.018 0.018
Total GHG Emissions Sequestered (MT CO2e) 3,081 3,392
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide; kWh =-kilowatt-hour

1. Hayward procurement requirement per capita = 0.08. CalRecycle

2. Emissions avoided from mixed organics compost application (MT CO2e/ton) =0.23. CARB. Method for Estimating GHG Emission Reductions from Diversion of Organic Waste from Landfills to Compost Facilities. *Values may not add up due to rounding
Table 33 GHG Emission Reductions Associated with Measure CS-2 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
CS-2.1 Structural
Change
Enforce compliance with SB 1383 by establishing a
minimum level of compost application per year on
applicable/appropriate land throughout the City
including City-owned land.
3,081 3,392
CS-2.2 Structural
Change
Adopt procurement policies to comply with SB 1383
requirements for jurisdictions to purchase recovered
organic waste products.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.3 Structural
Change/
Equity
Work with Hayward Area Recreation and Park District to
develop and adopt urban park guidelines that
1) Provide flexible solutions for developing urban parks in infill areas where traditional neighborhood and
community parks are not feasible;
2) Establish guidelines for achieving the greatest carbon sequestration potential of parks via design;
3) Are equitable in ensuring such urban parks are
accessible for lower-income residents while avoiding
displacement, in alignment with the Parks Master Plan.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.4 Feasibility
Study
Identify locations within Hayward to apply compost to
help meet the procurement requirements of SB 1383.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.5 Education Work with StopWaste to provide residents, businesses, and developers with educational material on best
practices for using compost in landscaping.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.6 Funding Explore opportunities to use the parkland in-lieu fees from the updated City’s Property Developers -
Obligations for Parks and Recreation Ordinance (Article 16 of City’s municipal code) to implement the Carbon
Management Activities Program (NR 15).

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.7 Partnerships Collaborate with Chabot College, CSUEB, and local schools to identify opportunities to apply compost to
landscaping.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.8 Partnerships Work with Alameda County and StopWaste to identify opportunities for a regional compost procurement
program to help meet the organics procurement
provisions of SB 1383.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.9 Partnership Work with the City’s franchisee under the new franchise agreement with Waste Management of Alameda County
to provide compost throughout the community.

Supportive Supportive
GHG Measures Quantification and Evidence

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 61 Action
ID Pillars Action
Emission Reductions
(MT CO2e)
2030 2045
CS-2.10 Feasibility
Study
Conduct a study to identify opportunities to enhance or create new natural areas in existing open spaces,
parklands, and fields with native species, biodiverse
ecology, higher carbon sequestration potential and
improved recreational connectivity for the community.

Supportive Supportive
CS-2.11 Education Create and deliver a range of resources to train residents, city gardening staff, and other institutions on how to incorporate biodiversity, soil, and carbon
sequestration techniques into landscaping and
gardening projects.

Supportive Supportive
City of Hayward
Hayward Climate Action Plan

62 3 Total GHG Measures Reduction
Achievement
Table 34 shows the GHG emission reductions achieved from implementation of the CAP measures, GHG emissions forecast after measure reductions, and the City’s 2030 and 2045 targets for both per-capita and mass emissions. With the implementation of the CAP measures and actions, the City is projected to meet its 2030 per capita target. 2045 GHG emission reductions quantified in the CAP are not yet enough to meet the per capita goal. The CAP document discusses the City’s trajectory towards achieving the 2045 climate action target in further detail.

Table 34 GHG Emissions Reductions and Targets
Year 2030 2045
1990 Baseline GHG Emissions – Per Capita (MT CO2e)1 5.9 5.9 Climate Action Targets – Per Capita (MT CO2e) 3.12 0
GHG Emission Reduction – Mass Emissions (MT CO2e) 121,656 436,200 GHG Emission Reductions – Per Capita (MT CO2e) 0.73 2.37 GHG Emissions after Measure Reduction – Per Capita (MT
CO2e)

3.11 1
Gap to Climate Action Target – Per Capita (MT CO2e) -0.1 1 Percent Reduction from 1990 Baseline Levels – Per Capita 47% 81% Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide

3. 1990 per capita GHG emissions level is estimated as 15% below the 2005 baseline per capita emissions level of 6.9. The 2005 per capita emissions level was calculated by dividing the 2005 mass emissions (973,244 MT CO2e) determined in the 2009 CAP by the 2005 population (140,530).

Total GHG Measures Reduction Achievement

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Quantification and Evidence Appendix 63

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Appendix E
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Rincon Consultants, Inc.

Environmental Scientists Planners Engineers

Sacramento: (916) 706 1374
San Diego: (760) 918 9444
San Luis Obispo: (805) 547 0900
Santa Barbara: (805) 319 4092
Santa Cruz: (831) 440 3899
Ventura: (805) 644 4455

Date: December 1, 2023
To: City of Hayward
Erik Pearson <[email protected]>; Nicole Grucky <[email protected]>
Cc: Leigha Schmidt <[email protected]>; Darcy Kremin <[email protected]>
From: Rincon Consultants, Inc.

Kelsey Bennett <[email protected]>; Erik Feldman <[email protected]>; Lauren Collar <[email protected]> Project: Hayward Climate Action Plan Update
Re: GHG Measures Cost Ranges Memorandum
Introduction
As part of its Climate Action Plan (CAP) Update, the City of Hayward is developing a comprehensive strategy for reducing communitywide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 55 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and to carbon neutral by 2045. However, achieving GHG emissions reduction and carbon neutrality requires strategic investments related to many aspects associated with each measure, including new policies, infrastructure, technology, and behavior change. In order to develop transparency around the prioritization of these investments, Rincon, with assistance from Hatch, has prepared this memorandum detailing the estimated cost ranges associated with the implementation of each of the 17 GHG measures proposed as part of the CAP Update. The intent of this memorandum is to convey highly variable community and City cost considerations and to provide respective cost ranges related to the implementation of GHG measures proposed as part of the CAP Update.

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GHG Measures Cost Ranges

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Cost Considerations and Variables
For each measure, the cost description focuses on both internal (City) costs and external (community) costs and provides insight into the variability of these costs including the primary variables that may affect cost effectiveness including several primary considerations including upfront costs, lifecycle costs, incremental or marginal costs, and the cost of doing nothing. This analysis is not intended to provide exact and precise cost estimates for each of the measures. The costs described for each measure are variable and provide a general range carried by differed parties associated with the measures.

Upfront versus Lifecycle Costs
When discussing how much a strategy or action costs, it is important to differentiate between the upfront costs, the cost of, for example, an LED light bulb, versus the lifecycle costs of purchasing, operating, maintaining, and ultimately disposing of that lightbulb. While LED lightbulbs may be more expensive up front when compared to an incandescent bulb, the lifecycle costs of owning an LED lightbulb are significantly lower, providing a significant return on investment.

Incremental or Marginal Costs
It is also important to specify the difference between how much a strategy costs overall and what the incremental or marginal cost is. The incremental or marginal cost is the difference in cost between the new action and the old or standard action. For example, purchasing a new electric vehicle (EV) could cost $30,000 which should be considered a high cost. However, the marginal cost of purchasing an electric vehicle versus purchasing a new internal combustion vehicle may be zero or near zero because of reduced long-term operating and maintenance costs including no fluids to replace, fewer moving parts like transmissions, and less brake wear. It is important to consider what the incremental/marginal costs are for each strategy by keeping in mind what the alternative costs are. In many cases, the difference is negligible.

The Cost of Doing Nothing
Finally, it’s also important to keep in mind that doing nothing to prepare for and mitigate climate change will also carry a cost. The alternative to implementing these strategies is not zero. One immediate example is the cost to install conduit and panel capacity for electric vehicle chargers for all new construction. While this action increases upfront construction costs by a few hundred dollars, doing that same work after the building is completed can be an order of magnitude higher (~$3,000). Given the move towards electric vehicles, the cost of not installing EV infrastructure today could cost the community significantly more in the future. In a similar vein, adaptation strategies will cost the city and the community today. Planting trees, installing microgrids, and setting up cooling centers all have upfront costs. However, it’s imperative that we weight these costs against the costs of a future without these adaptive strategies given what we know about the climate. Research published in the journal Nature predicts the cost of not decreasing GHG emissions to carbon neutrality by mid-century could range between $149.78 trillion to $791.98 trillion globally by the end of the century.1 That same study found that if we mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century the world could see a $127-to-$616 trillion-dollar economic benefit after considering the cost of mitigation. The humanitarian impact is also significant. The Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies estimate that the number of people in need of humanitarian aid each year could double to $200 million annually by 2050

1 Wei, Yi-Ming et al. Nature Communications. 2020. Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era. Accessed at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z. Accessed August 2022.

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due to climate change costing $20 billion per year.2 Furthermore, the World Resources Institute has found that investing in adaptation and resilience provides a benefit-cost ratio ranging from 2:1 to 10:1, meaning that for every dollar invested in resilience and adaptation we stand to see $2 to $10 dollars’ worth of benefits.

Cost Range Analysis
Climate Action Plans exhibit high variability in implementation costs depending on the measures identified, their level of specificity, and the accompanying funding and financing strategies, which may vary depending on the scope of the project. The cost range estimates are based on cost data derived from past projects, case studies, and available research.

The GHG measures proposed for the CAP Update and listed below have been broken down into 3 cost segments which include:

1. Low-Cost: the low-hanging fruit for the City and community to reduce GHG emissions, generally delineated as measures associated with relatively low upfront costs to the City or community, e.g. policy ordinances and outreach

2. Moderate-Cost: intermediate level of costs per measure implementation associated with consultant and moderate infrastructure changes, moderate upfront or lifecycle costs associated with e.g. feasibility studies, program development, retrofitting existing infrastructure, program and tax fees, and small capital investments such as purchasing a tree

3. High-Cost: longer term projects requiring substantial investments into major infrastructure or technology over time to reduce emissions, e.g., electrification equipment, electric buses, energy storage, bike lanes, infrastructure changes
The tables below categorize each measure into a low, moderate, or high City and community cost categories as described above and also explain the variables and existing data and case studies on which these categorizations were made.

2 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. 2019. The Cost of Doing Nothing: The Humanitarian Price of Climate Change and How it Can be Avoided. Accessed at https://reliefweb.int/report/world/cost-doing-nothing-humanitarian-price-climate-change-and-how-it- can-be-avoided. Accessed August 2022.

Measure BE-1: Continue the all-electric requirement for new residential construction. Adopt an all-electric requirement for new non-residential construction to take effect by 2026 City Costs Moderate Cost
City Cost Variables - Staff time to develop and adopt ordinance and code amendments - Staff time to produce collateral for educational programs and engagements - Collateral materials

City Cost Discussion Adopting reach codes and building codes generally requires staff time to implement. City staff will need to dedicate time to create educational materials and publish on the website, a low cost, with large potential audience. Workshops, however, will require one-time costs and support from Communications and Media Relations and Environmental Services and Building divisions.

Community Cost Moderate Cost
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GHG Measures Cost Ranges

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Community Costs
Variables
- Cost savings of all electric homes compared to mix fuel - Long-term costs on energy bills

Community Costs
Discussion
Cost effectiveness studies completed for Hayward’s climate zones show that new building electrification costs less to build than mixed fuel buildings. Single family homes are $5,149 dollars less expensive to build all-electric compared to a mixed fuel home. However, annual energy bills are expected to increase by $423 in an all- electric new home versus a mixed fuel home.1 Therefore, this measure is considered to be a moderate cost.

Source:

1. Local Energy Codes - City of Hayward Cost Effectiveness Explorer. https://explorer.localenergycodes.com/jurisdiction/hayward-city/study- results/3-PGE?only_study_type=new-buildings. Accessed August 2022 Measure BE-2: Electrify existing single-family residential buildings in order to achieve 100 therms/person/year by 2030 and 0 therms/person in 2045.

City Costs High Cost
City Cost Variables - Staff time to develop and adopt ordinance - Staff time to develop strategic plans
- Staff time for partnerships with businesses and private property owners - Staff time to produce collateral for education and engagements - Staff time for new program management
- Collateral materials including the update on online permitting process

City Cost Discussion Actions related to this measure will require a larger amount of time from City staff as compared to other Building Electrification measures. The most significant resource will be needed for the expansion of the Residential Energy Performance Assessment and Disclosure ordinance with an additional full-time equivalent (FTE) staff to monitor compliance and further facilitate permitting online, as well as developing an electrification strategy with building analysis to be authored by the City. Creating a strategy for electrification of buildings, and devoting staff time for collaborative partnerships, such as with the California Air Resources Board (CARB), to allow neighborhood level electrification/banning of natural gas will also be a significant lift to City and City officials.

Community Cost High Cost
Community Costs
Variables
- Cost of converting to electric homes from mix fuel
- Long-term costs on energy bills

Community Costs
Discussion
Electrifying an existing single-family residential building holds significant upfront costs.

Electrifying a home assumes including a heat pump for heating and cooling, heat pump water heater, and an electric resistance clothes dryer and stove. With these appliances considered, electrification upfront costs can range from $7,930 to $25,780, without incentives. Additionally, in Hayward’s climate zones, annual energy bill costs are expected to increase by up to 33%. However, if electrification is paired with installation of solar PV, annual energy bill savings can almost double.1 Existing single-family home electrification is considered high cost, without offset solar.

Source: Berkeley, City of. Existing Building Electrification Strategy. 2021. https://berkeleyca.gov/sites/default/files/2022- 01/Berkeley-Existing-Buildings-Electrification-Strategy.pdf. Accessed August 2022.

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Hayward City CouncilJanuary 30, 2024

Hayward City Council
January 30, 2024