Santa Monica City Council
August 27, 2024

Santa Monica: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE ACTION + ADAPTATION PLAN | 1

Report prepared by
As a Sub-Consultant to
For the
May 2017
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Contents
Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………………..5

1. Introduction................................................................................................................... 7

2. Vulnerability Assessment Framework..................................................................... 9 Sectors ..........................................................................................................................10 Vulnerability Assessment ..........................................................................................10 Climate Hazards..............................................................................................................13 Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding.......................................................................13 Extreme Heat ...............................................................................................................17 Drought .........................................................................................................................19 Air Quality.................................................................................................................... 23 Buildings and Properties...........................................................................................28 Populations and Public Health ................................................................................ 32 Infrastructure.............................................................................................................. 37 Ecosystems and Habitat ............................................................................................41 Economy ......................................................................................................................44

5. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................46 Priority Areas...............................................................................................................46 Future Data Collection..............................................................................................49 Next Steps – Adaptation Strategies.......................................................................49 CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 3 This page intentionally left blank.
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Executive Summary
Climate change is a global issue with local impacts. Santa Monica will experience a series of overlapping challenges and opportunities, many of which relate to its coastal location.

The Santa Monica Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment identifies key city sectors and climate hazards to provide a framework for adaptation and resilience planning. This document is meant to serve as a high-level screening tool for planners, engineers, architects, program managers and community institutions to better understand the potential risks associated with climate change. This document does not specify measures to mitigate or adapt to the hazards posed by climate change.

The City’s forthcoming Climate Action & Adaptation Plan (2018) will provide strategies to mitigate climate change and reduce or adapt to impacts.

Santa Monica may experience the following climate change impacts:
• Sea Level Rise – Current projections predict a high sea level rise (SLR) scenario of 1.67 meters by 2100. While SLR on its own, would not have a significant impact on Santa Monica, coastal flooding from storms and high tide, may cause damage to coastal infrastructure including the Santa Monica Pier, bike path, and utilities associated with beach facilities. Structures like the Annenberg Beach House, as well as private homes and commercial businesses, may also see flooding during high tides and coastal storm events.
• Extreme Heat – Increased average temperatures will give rise to extreme heat events in California and the Los Angeles region. It is predicted that extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, more intensive, and longer lasting. Due to it’s coastal and temperate climate, extreme heat will not likely post a direct impact to Santa Monica. However, increased energy usage for cooling or increased local tourism by people escaping the heat may affect Santa Monica’s energy reliability, local economy and traffic. • Drought – Climate change is likely to increase the duration and severity of droughts in California. The variability in wet and dry years will continue in the future under climate change. Santa Monica has made significant progress in reducing overall water usage and increasing local production. However Santa Monica will still be vulnerable to prolonged periods of drought, coupled with intermittent precipitation. • Air quality – Climate change will impact air quality through warming temperatures and more frequent episodes of stagnant air. Wildfires also have a negative impact on air quality and are likely to increase in number and severity with climate change.

Every part of the city – whether infrastructure, buildings, businesses, residents or visitors – will experience climate change impacts differently. Some sectors and people are better resourced and equipped to withstand these impacts or adapt while some are more vulnerable and may become even more vulnerable without a means to adapt. The assessment provides a review of specific climate change exposures and sensitivity, the adaptive capacity of each sector, and a screening level vulnerability assessment for each asset.
• The buildings and properties along the coastal zone are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea level rise. Additionally, older buildings and facilities are vulnerable to extreme heat and air pollution intrusion due to poor weatherproofing and may not provide CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 5 adequate shelter to residents. Older buildings, parks, and schools may be retrofitted and weather proofed to acclimate to future climate hazards. Unfortunately, coastal properties will be difficult to safeguard against sea level rise.
• Santa Monica’s mild temperature and coastal breeze may reduce the severity of the regional predictions for extreme heat and poor air quality. Because of this, the residents of Santa Monica are less sensitive to some of the impacts of climate change compared to the greater LA County. Older adults, young children, and people with chronic diseases and disabilities are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme heat and poor air quality.

Santa Monica has numerous plans, policies and spaces to protect residents, such as the hazard mitigation plan, hospitals, protections for outdoor workers, and cooling stations. • Water infrastructure, roads, and energy supply and infrastructure are most sensitive to climate change hazards like extreme heat, drought and sea level rise. Santa Monica has plans and projects in place to address water security and reuse like the SMURFF and upcoming Sustainable Water Infrastructure project. Water and energy efficiency initiatives will also help to safeguard Santa Monica’s resources. While the coastal bike path may be easy to relocate, the large roads and highways along the coast will be much more difficult to relocate and rebuild if they are threatened by sea level rise.
• Urban forests, beaches, and ocean habitats have the highest sensitivity to climate change hazards. The Santa Monica Beach Restoration project aims to protect and promote beach biodiversity and provide a natural barrier to sea level rise. Water conservation and landscape project help to prepare Santa Monica for climate change by increasing the amount of drought-friendly landscaping. The ocean habitat will be more difficult to protect against a changing climate due to its multijurisdictional nature, but organizations like Heal the Bay will continue to promote ocean protection measures across the region. • SLR and coastal flooding may erode coastal beach area and damage Santa Monica Pier businesses and concessionaires. These potential impacts may result in lost business income, reduced tax revenue, and fewer jobs for residents.

In order to address climate change, a citywide approach that focuses on both mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and increasing resiliency of City assets is necessary. The vulnerability assessment provides an introductory analysis to the strategies that will come forth in the City’s Climate Action and Adaptation Plan (CAAP) by identifying the areas that are most vulnerable to climate change. The actions in the CAAP will drive the city towards its goals for Water Self-Sufficiency by 2020, Zero Waste by 2030, and Carbon Neutrality by 2050 or sooner. 6 |
CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 7

1. Introduction
Climate change is a global issue with local impacts. Communities around the world are starting to understand those impacts and are making efforts to reduce their vulnerability.

Climate change presents Santa Monica with a series of overlapping challenges and opportunities. The purpose of this Santa Monica Vulnerability Assessment is to uncover a broad range of direct and indirect climate impacts across key sectors and to help prioritize adaptation and resilience responses in future planning efforts.

Many of Santa Monica’s most significant climate change challenges and opportunities relate to its coastal location. Miles of transportation infrastructure, beaches, homes, businesses and concessionaires are at risk from sea level rise (SLR), coastal flooding and inundation. 1 Coastal climate
hazards could have significant impacts on the local economy, which generates more than $1.5 billion in tourist revenue.
2 Yet, Santa Monica’s coastal location also presents significant opportunities. More extreme heat days across the Los Angeles region could increase local beach tourism, providing increased revenue for local businesses and the City. Downtown Los Angeles is projected to experience 37 days per year hotter than 95°F by the end of the century and more people may flock to coastal locations to avoid the heat.3 While beneficial to the City’s economy, these tourists may create other cascading impacts, such as increased traffic congestion which can exacerbate air pollution and impact local emergency response.

The coastal setting will help minimize the impacts of climate hazards on the City’s most vulnerable residents. More extreme heat days can pose a serious threat to human health, resulting in an increase in emergency department visits and hospitalizations 4 and deaths.5 Santa Monica is projected
to experience three extreme heat days per year due in part to its cooler coastal location, which is significantly less than other parts of the Los Angeles region. 6 Climate change is also anticipated to worsen air quality, aiding the formation of ozone7 and increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of wildfires.8 Like extreme heat days, these can lead to more emergency department visits and hospitalizations due respiratory illnesses. 9 However, ocean
1 ESA. 2016. Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report. Prepared for the City of Santa Monica.
2 City of Santa Monica. 2015. All Hazard Mitigation Plan. Available at https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/OEM/Preparedness/SantaMonica_AHMP_FINAL_8May2014.pdf. 3 Fengpeng S, et al. 2015. A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28:4618-4636. 4 Knowlton, K., et. al. 2009. The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits.

Environmental Health Perspectives, 117(1): pp. 61-67.
5 Basu, R., Feng, W., and Ostro B. 2008. Characterizing temperature and mortality in nine California counties. Epidemiology, 19(1): pp. 138-45.
6 Fengpeng S, et al. 2015. A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28:4618-4636. 7 Bell, M.L., et. al. 2007. Climate Change, Ambient Ozone, and Health in 50 U.S. Cities. Climatic Change, 82: pp. 61-76 8 California Energy Commission. 2017. Cal-Adapt. Available at http://cal-adapt.org/. 9 Jaffe, D., et. al. 2008. Interannual variations in PM2. 5 due to wildfires in the western United States. Environmental Science & Technology, 12(42): pp. 2812-2818.
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breezes and policies to reduce automobile use mean that Santa Monica has some of the best air quality in the region, minimizing the potential impact on the City’s residents.

While local actions will be important to address the potential impacts of climate change, strong regional partnerships and planning are critical to address challenges beyond the City’s boundaries.

The duration and severity of droughts in California is anticipated to increase, altering the availability of imported water and recycled water.
10 Likewise warmer temperatures, less snowpack, more
wildfires, and SLR may diminish energy generation and transmission.11 The Vulnerability Study identifies key assets exposed to climate hazards, assesses the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each sector, and assesses the vulnerability of each, as shown in Table 1. The vulnerability assessment is also aligned with the state’s objective to ensure that local jurisdictions integrate climate adaptation into their planning processes. The study’s aim is to provide a framework for CAAP measure prioritization, decision-making, and future data gathering to increase community resilience over time.

Table 1: Key Sectors and Climate Hazards Examined
Key City Sectors Climate Hazards
• Buildings and properties
• Populations and public health
• Infrastructure and utilities
• Habitat and ecosystems
• Economy
• SLR and coastal flooding
• Extreme heat
• Drought
• Air quality
The Vulnerability Study is organized as follows:
• Chapter 2 describes the vulnerability assessment framework. It outlines key steps in the assessment and the specific methods used in the assessment. • Chapter 3 compiles the “State of the Science” for four specific climate hazards: SLR and coastal flooding, extreme heat, drought, and air quality. Historic and projected trends for each climate hazard is collected and incorporated into the study. • Chapter 4 assesses vulnerabilities to these four climate hazards for five sectors. Within each sector, the vulnerability of key assets or populations is examined. For example, the infrastructure section covers transportation infrastructure, water supply and water infrastructure, and stormwater infrastructure, among others. • Chapter 5 provides a summary of the vulnerability assessment, prioritizes areas for future measure implementation, and includes recommendations about future data gathering. 10 Berg, N, et al. 2015. Twenty-Frist Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28: 401 – 421.
11 Sathaye, Jayant, Larry Dale, Peter Larsen, Gary Fitts, Kevin Koy, Sarah Lewis, and Andre Lucena. 2012. Estimating Risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Projected Climate Change. California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CEC‐500‐ 2012‐057.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 9

2. Vulnerability Assessment Framework
The Vulnerability Assessment is a screening tool to better understand the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to climate change hazards and to begin defining future adaptation responses. The assessment focuses on a limited number of climate change hazards defined in concert with City staff and local experts.

The methodology used to develop the vulnerability assessment is based on the California Adaptation Planning Guide (CAPG), which was prepared by California Emergency Management Agency and the California Natural Resources Agency.12
The CAPG is based on California’s 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy, which summarizes the science of climate impacts, specifies comprehensive state adaptation strategies, and analyzes the impacts to a variety of sector areas.

The vulnerability assessment methodology is also consistent with Senate Bill 379. The Senate Bill requires cities and counties in California to update their General Plan safety elements and local hazard mitigation plans to incorporate climate adaptation strategies and vulnerability assessments that identify the risks climate change poses to the local jurisdictions. 13 The CAPG outlines a nine-step approach to conducting a vulnerability assessment and developing an adaptation strategy, including the following:

Vulnerability Assessment

1. Identify the climate change effects a community will experience (exposure);

2. Identify the key community structures, functions, and populations that are potentially susceptible to each climate change exposure (sensitivity)

3. Analyze how the climate change exposure will affect the community structures, functions, and populations (potential impacts);

4. Evaluate the community’s current ability to address the projected impacts (adaptive capacity);

5. Adjust the impact assessment to account for uncertainty, timing, and adaptive capacity (risk and onset);
Adaptation Strategy Development

6. Prioritize the adaptive needs by sector;

7. Identify strategies to address the highest priority adaptation needs (identify strategies);

8. Prioritize strategies based on the projected onset of the impact, projected cost, co-benefits, and other feasibility factors (prioritize);

9. Develop an implementation plan that includes phasing of strategies and a monitoring system to assess effectiveness (phasing).

The Santa Monica Vulnerability Assessment completes steps 1-5, with adaptation strategy development to come as part of the preparation of the City’s forthcoming Climate Action & 12 California Emergency Management Agency. 2012. California Adaptation Planning Guide: Planning for Adaptive Communities.

Available at http://resources.ca.gov/docs/climate/01APG_Planning_for_Adaptive_Communities.pdf. 13 California Legislative Information. 2015. Senate Bill No. 379. Available at https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB379. 10 |
Adaptation Plan. Chapter 5, however, provides recommendations for adaptation strategy development and prioritization.

Sectors
This assessment analyzes climate change vulnerability for five different sectors. These sectors include: buildings and properties, populations and public health, infrastructure and utilities, economy, and habitat and ecosystems.
• Buildings and properties: This asset sector includes buildings and properties located throughout Santa Monica. Assets include publicly- and privately-owned buildings, community-based assets, parks and open space, and landscaping and vegetation. • Populations and public health: This sector includes the City’s populations overall with special attention paid to those who are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, including older adults, young children, and people with disabilities. It also summarizes the impacts of climate change on public health.
• Infrastructure and utilities: This sector focuses on water supply and infrastructure, sanitary sewer infrastructure, stormwater, transportation, and energy systems. • Habitat and ecosystems: The habitat and ecosystems sector covers coastal habitat, including the snowy plover, beaches, and urban forests.
• Economy: This sector focuses on economic assets in Santa Monica. These include businesses, tourism, and other local economic drivers.

Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability is the degree to which an asset or population group is susceptible to climate hazards.

The vulnerability assessment includes exposure analysis, sensitivity analysis, and adaptive capacity analysis. The following section describes each step utilized in the vulnerability analysis.

Exposure Analysis
The exposure analysis determines whether or not an asset or population is exposed to a climate hazard. For the Santa Monica Vulnerability Assessment, the climate hazards reviewed include:
extreme heat, SLR and coastal flooding, worsening air quality, and drought. SLR and coastal flooding used GIS mapping done as part of the Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment Technical Methods Report prepared by ESA. Exposure to other climate hazards was completed through a review of technical information and studies. When feasible, exposure analysis was considered for two discrete time horizons: mid-century (between 2040 and 2060) and end of century (between 2080 and 2100).

Table 2 summarizes the general trend associated with each climate hazard as well as future projections.

Table 2: Summary of Projected Trends in Santa Monica
Climate
Variable
General
Trend
Certainty Future Climate Change Projections
SLR and
Coastal
Flooding
Increasing High 5.3”-12”
by 2030

11.6”-23.8”
by 2050

36.6”-113”
by 2100
CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 11 Extreme
Heat Increasing High
1 day over 95F by
2050
9 days over 87F by
2050
3 days over 95F by
2100
22 days over 87F by
2100
Drought Increasing Medium
Los Angeles is projected to see roughly the
same amount of total precipitation in the 21st
Century as it received in the last few decades of
the 20th Century. The region will continue to see
wide swings between wet and dry years.

Air Quality
Improving,
but still
consistently
fails to meet
federal
standards.

Medium
Climate change is expected to worsen air
pollution due to warmer temperatures and
regional wildfires.

Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity analysis captures which aspects of assets are likely to be affected by exposure to a climate hazard. For each sector’s assets, a sensitivity rating was developed to understand how sensitive it is to climate change. Asset sensitivity is affected by the timing and extent of climate hazards, as well as other factors such as biological susceptibility (such as people with respiratory diseases impacted by poor air quality), physical challenges (such as the difficulty of moving a structure from a flood-prone area), and functional qualities (such as emergency response during a flood). Assets were rated on a scale of 1-4 as follows:

1. Not sensitive to change

2. Low sensitivity to change: short-term or minor impact to the asset

3. Medium sensitivity to change: significant but reversible impact

4. High sensitivity to change: damage to asset may be irreversible.

Sensitivity rankings were based on a combination of stakeholder input and literature review.

Participants at the CAAP Stakeholder Meeting held on March 10, 2017 ranked the sensitivity for assets within a sector. Data was summarized for each sector and asset and presented later in the report.

Figure 1 is an example of an analysis completed by a meeting participant. Findings from the meeting (i.e. rankings) will be discussed by sectors in Chapter 4: Sector Vulnerability Assessment. 12 |
Figure 1: Stakeholder Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Analysis Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity analysis evaluates whether or not policies or programs exist to minimize the impact of a climate hazard on a sector’s assets. These policies and programs may help an asset or population cope with the climate hazard. These include the local programs, such as the City’s All Hazard Plan and the SLR Policy being developed as part of the Local Coastal Plan update, and regional programs, such as the air quality alert systems.

Like sensitivity, adaptive capacity was assessed using an ordinal ranking system – low, medium, and high – for each asset or population. Adaptive capacity rankings were based on a combination of stakeholder input from the March 2017 stakeholder meeting and review of existing policies and programs. Data was summarized for each sector and asset and presented later in the report.

Vulnerability Assessment
This vulnerability assessment incorporates the quantitative results regarding exposure of assets and facilities along Santa Monica’s coast for the sectors and assets that will be most likely be impacted by SLR and coastal flooding, such as infrastructure (i.e. water infrastructure, bicycling facilities, and roadways), buildings and properties (i.e. residential and commercial buildings), and the coastal ecosystem. The assessment also utilizes qualitative data concerning sector or assets’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity gathered from the stakeholder meeting in order to understand their vulnerability to climate change.

A vulnerability rating of none, low, moderate, and high is provided for each asset. Assets that have little exposure or low sensitivity to a climate hazard are delineated as having no vulnerability. Assets or populations exposes to a climate hazard and have some sensitivity to change were ranked appropriately.

𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑓(𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒, 𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦, 𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦) CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 13 Climate Hazards
Understanding the anticipated changes to climate hazards was an essential first step in conducting the vulnerability assessment for Santa Monica. The subsequent sections in this chapter provide an overview of historical and projected trends for SLR and coastal flooding, extreme heat, drought, and air quality. As much as feasible, the historical analysis describes the nature, frequency, magnitude of the hazards in Santa Monica. Establishing an understanding of historical exposure based on a review of observed records is helpful to understand existing vulnerabilities of assets and to prioritize adaptation strategies and investments.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
The two primary causes of SLR are thermal expansion (as the water warms it increases in size) and the increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Coastal flooding is a temporary condition caused by storms and high tides. Inundation is the permanent condition caused by gradual SLR. In the short term, the primary concern is coastal flooding. However, over the longer-term, SLR will compound the effects from coast flooding as storms will occur on top of higher sea levels. This section describes historic trends, both globally and in Los Angeles, and projected SLR tends in Santa Monica.

Historic Trends in Sea Level Rise
Global sea levels began to increase between the late 19th and early 20th century.14 Sea level rose about 0.66 feet between 1700 and 1975, with the majority of that increase occurring during the 20th century, indicating that SLR is rapidly increasing. The rate of global SLR began to rapidly increase in the 1990s, global SLR rates were almost twice as high as they had been over the previous century. 15 This can be seen in Figure 2.
14 NRC (2012) Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. National Research Council (NRC), the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.: 217p. 15 Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Ch. 13: Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of the Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
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Figure 2: Global Mean Sea Level Change
Source: IPCC
Around Los Angeles, the mean sea level trend is 0.95 millimeters per year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.24 mm/yr. based on monthly mean sea level data from 1923 to 2015, which is equivalent to a change of 0.31 feet in 100 years.16 Figure 3 below depicts this sea level trend for Los Angeles.

Figure 3: Los Angeles Mean Sea Level Trend
Source: NOAA
16 Tides & Currents. 2013. Mean Sea Level Trend: Los Angeles, California. NOAA. Available at https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9410660.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 15 Projected Trends in SLR in Santa Monica
Models indicate that Southern California may see between 17 and 66 inches of SLR by the end of this century. SLR in the Los Angeles region is expected to match global projections, which will also potentially exacerbate coastal flooding impacts from storm surges and big-wave storms, and lead to greater loss of land. Estimates of SLR projected in Southern California and Santa Monica are shown in Table 3.
17,18
Table 3: Sea Level Rise (SLR) Projections for Southern California and Santa Monica SLR Scenario (Expected Time Period) Southern California SLR Range (inches)a
City of Santa Monica SLR
Range (inches)b
Early-Century - Current-2030 2”-12” 5.3”-12”
Mid-Century - Around 2030-2050 5”-24” 11.6”-23.8”
Late Century - Around 2050-2100 17”-66” 36.6”-113”
Source: Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report, 2016
a Southern California SLR ranges are based on the NRC 2012 results for California coastal areas located south of Pt.

Conception, as presented in the 2015 CCC SLR Policy Guidance Document. b Santa Monica SLR Ranges are based on the NRC medium and high scenarios for Los Angeles region and used in the ESA/Terra Costa Group modeling and the Cayan et al 2016 Extreme scenario (RCP 8.5 and the 99.9% probability that the SLR will be at or below this level)
Figure 4 shows projected SLR and coastal flooding by 2100 along the coast of Santa Monica. A significant number of public facilities and infrastructure, buildings, and other structures are likely to be affected based on an analysis by ESA and CoSMoS which conducted independent studies of local sea level rise. In addition, the Santa Monica Pier, a major tourist destination in the City, will also be impacted. Vulnerable structures and facilities to SLR and coastal flooding are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 4: SLR and the Santa Monica Coast
Source: ESA & CoSMoS
17 Cayan, D. R., J. Kalansky, S. Iacobellis, D. Pierce, and R. Kopp Kopp. (2016). Creating Probabilistic SLR Projections to support the 4th California Climate Assessment. Prepared for the California Energy Commission. 18 ESA. 2016. Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report. Prepared for the City of Santa Monica.
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The assessment estimated that up to 4.3 miles of roadways and bikeways, up to 165 buildings, and up to 0.8 miles of storm drains, among other things, will likely be damaged by SLR and coastal flooding by the end of the century.
19 depicts the location and type of physical assets and facilities along Santa Monica’s coast exposed to SLR and coastal flooding and erosion.

Figure 5: Assets within SLR Flood Zone
In order to limit damage to Santa Monica’s assets and facilities, it is essential to start preparing for sea level rise. The City of Santa Monica and the Bay Foundation partnered in 2016 to pilot a transformative dune restoration project. The vision is to turn three acres of manicured sandy beach into a rejuvenated, healthy, and beautiful coastal ecosystem. This project addresses SLR and brings more aesthetic value to the Santa Monica coast. Instead of waiting until the effects of SLR and coastal erosion are great, Santa Monica is taking a proactive approach to coastal resilience by embracing a natural dune ecosystem.

Figure 6: Rendering of Dune Restoration Project Rendering Courtesy: The Bay Foundation
19 ESA. 2016. Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report. Prepared for the City of Santa Monica.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 17 In addition to dune restoration, Santa Monica educates the community about SLR. A temporary virtual reality viewer, called the OWL, was installed in November 2016 as an educational public engagement tool for Santa Monica Pier visitors and residents. Inside the OWL, the public was able to see how the beach and infrastructure may flood due to SLR and large coastal storms. The OWL also displayed an artistic rendering of the dune restauration project as an adaptation measure being considered by the City of Santa Monica.

Extreme Heat
Due to climate change, extreme heat events in California and the Los Angeles region are becoming more frequent, more intensive, and longer lasting. An extreme heat day is defined as a day between April and October when the maximum temperature exceeds a heat threshold. This threshold is often calculated as the 98th percentile of historical maximum temperatures between April 1 and October 31 based on observed daily temperature data. This section compiles historic and projected extreme heat events in Santa Monica.

Cooler coastal climates typically have fewer extreme heat days. Between 1961 and 1990, Santa Monica averaged four days a year with temperatures greater than 87 F.20 Between 1981 and 2000, the City average less than one day a year with temperatures higher than 95 F.21 Figure 6 depicts the number of projected extreme heat days above 87°F in Santa Monica in a high emissions scenario. At this temperature threshold, Santa Monica is expected to see increasing trends in extreme heat days with an average of nine days above 87°F by mid-century and 22 days by end of century.
22 Figure 6: Observed and Projected Extreme Heat Days above 87F in Santa Monica Source: Cal-Adapt
20 Linvneh, B. 2015. A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950– 2013. Downloaded from CalAdapt.
21 Fengpeng S, et al. 2015. A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28:4618-4636. 22 California Energy Commission. 2017. Cal-Adapt. Available at http://cal-adapt.org/. 18 |
Figure 7 geographically depicts the projected number of extreme heat days above 95F for Los Angeles County between 2081 – 2100. Los Angeles is projected to see 37 days per year greater than 95°F in this timeframe. However, since Santa Monica is close to the cooler coastal climate, a warming of 4°C is expected to only result in an increase from 0 to 3 extremely hot days per year by 2100 in the City.23
Figure 7: Projected Number of Extreme Heat Days (2081 – 2100) 24 Image source: Los Angeles Times
Urban Heat Island
Urban heat island effect can exacerbate extreme heat events in large urban areas.25 This effect describes built up areas that are hotter than surrounding nearby rural areas. Figure 8 shows the urban heat island in the Los Angeles region as measured by the CalEPA’s Urban Heat Island Index.

Intensity of this effect is color coded with green representing the smallest effect and red to white representing the greatest intensity.26 The map shows the urban heat island effect as an average daily temperature increase in degrees Fahrenheit. The index tends to increase during heat waves, meaning that urban areas are hit harder than surrounding areas. In Santa Monica and other places along the coast, urban heat island produces the smallest effect on daily temperature, as can be seen. 23 Fengpeng S, et al. 2015. A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part II: End-of-Century Warming Projections Predict a New Climate State in the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28:4618-4636. 24 Lin, R. 2016. LA will Keep Getting Hotter, Scientists Say – A Lot Hotter. Los Angeles Times. Available at:
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-extreme-heat-la-20160620-snap-story.html. 25 US Environmental Protection Agency. 2017. Climate Change and Heat Islands. Available at https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/climate-change-and-heat-islands. 26 CalEPA. Urban Heat Island Interactive Map. Available at https://www.calepa.ca.gov/climate/urban-heat-island-index-forcalifornia/urban-heat-island-interactive-maps/.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 19 Figure 8: Urban Heat Island Index Maps for Los Angeles Region Source: CalEPA
Drought
Climate change is likely to increase the duration and severity of droughts in California. Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can create periods of abnormally dry weather that can produce hydrologic imbalances and result in water supply shortages.

Historic Drought Events in California
Five historic drought periods in the Santa Monica area between 1928 and 2017 are described below. • 1928 – 1934: Known as the “Dust Bowl”, this drought was remembered for its length and severity.
• 1976 – 1977: The City of Santa Monica enacted a Drought Ordinance in July 1977 as a direct response to the drought conditions. The ordinance declared that the City was suffering from a drought emergency.27 Across the state, a federal report placed the economic losses of the impacts on from agriculture and ranching at more than $1 billion.28 • 1987 – 1992: Santa Monica invested in an aggressive water demand reduction program during the summer of 1988. More effort was devoted to conservation and several measures were developed as a result to reduce water waste and provided punitive measures for failing to 27 City of Santa Monica. 2015. 2015 Santa Monica Urban Water Management Plan. Available at https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/Public_Works/Water/2015_UWMP_Final_June_2016.pdf. 28 Grad, S and Harrison, S. 2015. California Retrospective: 3 Crippling Droughts that Changed California. Los Angeles Times.

Available at http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-retrospective-20150413-story.html. 20 |
observe statutes. The ordinance helped the City achieve a goal of 10 percent reduction in water consumption.29
• 2007 – 2009: 2007 to 2009 were the 12th driest three-year period in the recorded history.30 • 2010 – 2017: The drought was considered as the driest period in the state’s recorded rainfall history. In 2013, California received less rain than in any year since it became a state in 1850.31 In response, Santa Monica instituted emergency drought measures with the goal of reducing water consumption to 20% below 2013 usage levels.32
Figure 9 graphically depicts worsening drought conditions in California between 2011 and 2015, during the first week in January. By January 2015, the majority of the state was designated as extreme or exceptional drought conditions.

Figure 9: California Drought Conditions during the first week of January 2011 – 2015 Source: Los Angeles Times
In response to California’s drought, Santa Monica has a variety of programs and infrastructure to ensure sustainable water management at a city-wide level. The City set the goal of water selfsufficiency, which would close the gap between total water demand and total water produced locally by 2020. Thus, the City is taking advantage of the use of groundwater resources at a sustainable level, increasing water conservation efforts, capturing and reusing rainwater and dryweather runoff, and reusing graywater.

Recently, Santa Monica enacted the Water Neutrality Ordinance, limiting the increased water demand of new developments, compared to the previous site’s use. This ordinance is aiming to maintain water use at current levels and is one strategy to achieve the City’s goal for water self-sufficiency by 2020.

For residents, there are many rebate programs offered to residents to conserve more water and promote water efficiency. Santa Monica offers rebates for residents to remove their turf and 29 City of Santa Monica. 2015. 2015 Santa Monica Urban Water Management Plan. Available at https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/Public_Works/Water/2015_UWMP_Final_June_2016.pdf. 30 Christian-Smith, J. 2011. Impacts of the California Drought from 2007 – 2009. Pacific Institute. Available at http://pacinst.org/app/uploads/2013/02/ca_drought_impacts_full_report3.pdf. 31 Rogers, P. 2014. California Drought: Past Dry Periods have Lasted More than 200 Years, Scientists Say. The Mercury News.

Available at http://www.mercurynews.com/2014/01/25/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more-than-200- years-scientists-say/.
32 City of Santa Monica. 2015. City Council Report: Water Shortage Response Plan and Implementation. Available at https://www.smgov.net/departments/council/agendas/2015/20150113/s2015011308-B.htm.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 21 sprinklers in their yard or on the parkway and replace them with climate-approved and water-smart plants and mulch. Through landscape, residential, and commercial water efficiency rebates, the City saved an average of 105,191 gallons of water a day and a total of approximately 38,500,000 gallons over the year of 2016.

Historic Trends in Precipitation
Figure 10 shows historic precipitation levels in Los Angeles, which has fluctuated over time. The overall trend line has precipitation on the decline, based on a locally estimated scatterplot smoother.33 The historic annual precipitation mean in Santa Monica, between 1950 and 2001, was 15.5 inches.34
Figure 10: Historical Precipitation Trends, Los Angeles, California, January 1940 - 2017 Source: NOAA
Drought conditions in the Santa Monica area have been recorded since the 1930’s. Data on drought conditions (Palmer Drought Severity Index) is shown in Figure 11. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is an effective measure of drought intensity. It is a standardized index that spans from -10 (dry) and +10 (wet). A value of ‘0” is defined as normal. The index can also capture the basic effect of climate change on drought through changes in potential evapotranspiration. A value of -2 indicates moderate drought, -3 indicates severe drought, and -4 indicates extreme drought. There is wide variation in the frequency and intensity of droughts since the 1930’s. 35 33 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: U.S. Time Series. Available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/.
34 California Energy Commission. 2017. Cal-Adapt. Available at http://beta.cal-adapt.org/. 35 National Drought Mitigation Center. US Drought Risk Atlas. Available at http://droughtatlas.unl.edu/Data.aspx 22 |
Figure 11: PDSI for the Santa Monica area (1935 – 2012)

Year
Source:

National
Drought
Mitigation Center
Projected Trends in Precipitation for the Region
Los Angeles can expect the same amount of total precipitation throughout the 21st Century as it received in the last few decades of the 20th century (from 1981 to 2000). In the present-day climate, the region experiences wide swings in precipitation from year-to-year, and this variability is expected to continue under climate change with fluctuations between wet years and dry years. 36 Due to anticipated warmer temperatures under climate change, more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow. Southern California will have smaller windows of time to capture stored water as snowpack.37 Figure 12 shows the projected variability in precipitation of baseline compared to a future scenario (mode 1), which is expected to be minimal.38 36 Berg, N, et al. 2015. Twenty-Frist Century Precipitation Changes over the Los Angeles Region. Journal of Climate. 28: 401 – 421.
37 Hewitt, Al. 2014. UCLA Researchers Project Southern California Rainfall Levels Through End of Century. UCLA Newsroom.

Available at http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla-researchers-project-southern-california-rainfall-levels-through-end-ofcentury. 38 California Energy Commission. 2017. Cal-Adapt. Available at http://beta.cal-adapt.org/. Drought Severity Index CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 23 Figure 12: Precipitation Variability over the Baseline and Future Source: Berg, N, et al, 2015.

Air Quality
Air quality is expected to worsen with increasing climate change. Air quality is strongly dependent on weather, and climate change is expected to impact air quality through warming temperatures and more frequent episodes of stagnant air. Many strategies that are used to reduce greenhouse gases will also reduce emissions of air pollution.

Historic Trends in Air Quality
Overall, Southern California has the nation’s worst smog and consistently fails to meet federal ozone standards since 1979.39 However, Santa Monica’s coastal location, ocean breezes, and vehicle reduction measures result in better air quality than other portions of the Los Angeles region. The number of days above the ozone standard, however, has been steadily declining since the 1980’s in the South Coast Air Basin, as shown in Figure 13. However, in the summer of 2016, Southern California experienced its worst smog since 2009. By August 2016, ozone had exceeded federal standards on 91 days since the beginning of the year, compared to 67 days over the same period the previous year.
40 39 CalEPA. 2017. Air Quality and Meteorological Information (AQMIS2). Available at https://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/display.php?year=2017&report=AREAMYR&o3pa8=SC&param=OZONE&ptype=aqd. 40 Barboza, T. Aug. 11, 2016. SoCal Hit with Worst Smog in Years as Hot, Stagnant Weather Brings Surge in Hospital Visits. Los Angeles Times. Available at http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-summer-smog-20160805-snap-story.html. 24 |
Figure 13: Days above Ozone Standard – South Coast Air Basin Image source: Los Angeles Times
Figure 14 shows the number of days exceeding the federal ozone standard in the Los Angeles region.

It illustrates the significant differences among non-attainment days across the entire region, including few days in Santa Monica.41
Figure 14: Number of Days Exceeding Federal Ozone Standard in 2013 Source: UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability 41 UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. 2016. 2015 Environmental Report Card for Los Angeles County.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 25 Figure 15. Santa Monica Tree Planting Priority Model
The single largest zone of pollution is the Santa Monica Municipal Airport, yet its impact on the surrounding Sunset Park neighborhood only spans a small portion of the city. The central city zone has the highest concentrations of air pollution from truck routes and the 10 freeway.42 Santa Monica has also been designated as nonattainment areas for ozone, PM2.5, and PM10. 43 Figure 15 shows diesel particulate matter percentiles for census tracts in Santa Monica compared to the rest of the state. As is shown, parts of Santa Monica are in the highest percentiles for diesel particulate matter concentration, due in part to proximity to Interstate 405 and 10.44 Diesel particulate matter affects lung function, the immune system, and can exacerbate asthma and other respiratory diseases.45 Diesel engine exhaust is also classified as cancer-causing by the International Agency for Research on Cancer and is linked to increased risk of lung cancer.46 According to the Wellbeing Project, 15% of Santa Monica residents suffer from asthma, higher than Los Angeles County’s average of 12%.
42 Santa Monica Tree Planting Priority Model.
43 Cal EPA. 2016. Area Designations Maps/ State and National. Available at https://www.arb.ca.gov/desig/adm/adm.htm. 44 CalEPA. 2017. CalEnviroScreen 3.0. Available at https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30. 45 US Environmental Protection Agency Region 1: EPA New England. Diesel Particulate Matter. Available at https://www3.epa.gov/region1/eco/airtox/diesel.html,
46 American Cancer Society. 2015. Diesel Exhaust and Cancer: What is Diesel Exhaust? Available at https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/diesel-exhaust-and-cancer.html. 26 |
Figure 156: Diesel Particulate Matter Percentile for Santa Monica Source: CalEnviroScreen 3.0
Wildfire Impacts on Air Quality
Wildfires can be a significant source of air quality pollution in Southern California, and climate change is expected to increase the number and extent of wildfires. Hot, dry summers followed by hot and dry westerly wind conditions can create conditions suitable for wildfires. There is a potential for wildland / urban interface fires in Southern California, although Santa Monica has historically been unaffected by the direct fire impacts.
47 Wildfires burning within 50 to 100 miles of a city routinely caused air quality to be 5 to 15 times worse than normal, and often 2-3 times worse than the worst non-fire day of the year. 48 Emissions from wildlife can lead to excessive levels of PM, CO, VOCs, and ozone.49 47 City of Santa Monica. 2015. 2015 Santa Monica All Hazards Mitigation Plan. Available at https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/OEM/Preparedness/SantaMonica_AHMP_FINAL_8May2014.pdf. 48 Kenward, A, et al. 2013. Wildfires and Air Pollution: The Hidden Health Hazards of Climate Change. Climate Central.

Available at http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/WildfiresAndAirPollution.pdf. 49 Phuleria, HC, et al. 2005. Air Quality Impacts of the October 2003 Southern California Wildfires. Journal of Geophysical Research. 110(D7).

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 27 28 |
Figure 167: Projected Increase in Wildfire Burn Areas
& Diesel Particulate Matter Percentile for Santa Monica Source: Cal-Adapt
Although the wildfire risk in Santa Monica is non-existent, the City is within close proximity to a number of mountainous ranges where wildfire risks are projected to increase due to climate change.

For example, increased fire risks in both the low and high emissions scenarios are predicted for areas in the Santa Monica Mountains just outside the City, as shown in CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 29 Figure 16.
50 Additionally, wildfire risk may also stress fire and emergency management services across Los Angeles County.

Projected Trends in Air Quality
Overall, climate change is projected to result in increased air pollution. Increasing temperatures from climate change is expected to increase ozone formation, since its formation is dependent on temperature among other factors. Ozone formation tends to increase with higher temperatures, strong sunlight, and a stable air mass. Warming temperatures and lengthened growing seasons can lead to increased wildfires and aeroallergen levels, such as pollen, which can also worsen air quality.

Researchers project that warmer temperatures from climate change will increase the frequency of days with unhealthy levels of ground-level ozone.51
50 California Energy Commission. 2017. Cal-Adapt. Available at http://cal-adapt.org/. 51 US Environmental Protection Agency. 2017. Climate Impacts on Human Health. Available at https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-impacts-human-health. 30 |

4. Sector Vulnerability Assessments
This chapter provides vulnerability assessment for the five sectors examined: buildings and properties, populations and public health, infrastructure, ecosystems and habitats, and economy.

Each sector includes a description of key assets or populations, defines specific climate change exposures and sensitivity, describes the adaptive capacity of each sector, and provides a screening level vulnerability assessment for each asset.

Assets and population groups by key sectors are shown in Table 4. Although each asset is categorized within a particular sector, climate hazards will likely result in ripple effects that cross sector and jurisdictional boundaries. For example, Highway 1 flooding could impact intercity travel and emergency response services.

Table 4: Assets and Populations by Key Sectors
Key Sectors Assets and Populations
Buildings and properties
• Buildings and properties
• City-services buildings
• Schools
• Parks
Populations and public health • General population
• Vulnerable populations
Infrastructure
• Water infrastructure
• Water supply
• Sanitary sewer infrastructure
• Stormwater infrastructure
• Roads and parking
• Bicycle infrastructure
• Energy supply and infrastructure
• Telecommunications infrastructure
Ecosystems and habitat
• Urban forests
• Beach habitat
• Ocean habitat
Economy
• Beach tourism and recreation
• Santa Monica Pier
• Businesses
Buildings and Properties
This asset sector includes buildings and properties located throughout Santa Monica. For the purposes of this analysis, buildings and properties include: buildings, city-service buildings, schools, parks, and vegetation/ landscaping. Buildings and properties include private buildings, residential homes, and multifamily housing, as well as outdoor vegetation and landscaping. City-service buildings, such as public facilities, consist of police and fire stations, hospitals, schools, and other government buildings. Other associated structures and facilities, such as parking lots and solar panels, are also included. Many of the asset categories are managed or regulated by a set of local or regional agencies, as shown in Table 5.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 31 Table 5: Examples of Local Agencies Overseeing Buildings and Properties Key Asset Categories Examples of State, Regional, and Local Management Agencies Buildings and properties City of Santa Monica, individual owners City-services buildings City of Santa Monica
Schools Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District
Parks City of Santa Monica
Exposures and Sensitivity Analysis: Buildings and Properties The location, use, age, and quality of buildings and properties impact their vulnerability to both gradual climate change and climate hazards, as well as their capacity to adapt. Older buildings and facilities are vulnerable to extreme heat and air pollution intrusion due to poor weather proofing.

Buildings and properties closest to the coast are at greatest risk of damage from SLR and coastal flooding.

Impacts on buildings due to different SLR and coastal flooding scenarios was examined in the Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Assessment. Table 6 summarizes the number and types of buildings and public facilities exposed to SLR and storm flooding during a 100-year event. By 2080, it is likely that upwards of 160 buildings and parking lots will be exposed.

Table 6: Number of Buildings and Structures at Risk from Storm Flooding and SLR Baseline 3’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR
by 2080
2010 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2080
Building and parking
lots
10 14 20 72 17 32 165 165
Public Facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source: ESA, 2016. Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment Technical Methods Report.

Table 7 summarizes potential impacts by key building and property assets and presents a sensitivity ranking. Buildings, city-service buildings, and schools were ranked as medium sensitivity. Parks were ranked as having the highest sensitivity to climate change hazards in this asset category as SLR and coastal flooding threatens beach areas and trees and plants in parks may not be drought-tolerant.

This category is likely to be sensitivity to change but the impacts are likely to be reversible. 32 |
Table 7: Sensitivity Analysis of Building and Property Assets Potential Impacts Climate Hazard Extent Sensitivity
Rating
Buildings and properties
Damage to private buildings, businesses,
and homes or multi-family housing SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica Medium;
High in
coastal zone
Older buildings and homes more sensitive
to extreme heat and air pollution intrusion
worsening indoor air quality
Extreme heat, air quality Citywide
Damage to Annenberg Community Beach
House SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Higher energy use and costs to cool
buildings, leading to black and brown outs Extreme heat Citywide Increased pests and insects in buildings
due to warmer temperatures Extreme heat Citywide
Damage/ stress to vegetation and
landscaping Extreme heat, drought Citywide
Increased costs for maintenance and
water use Extreme heat, drought Citywide
City-service buildings
Overheated buildings and air pollution
intrusion Extreme heat, air quality Citywide Medium
Water and energy inefficiencies Drought, extreme heat Citywide Schools
Older schools are more sensitive to
extreme heat and air pollution intrusion
into indoor spaces
Extreme heat, air quality Citywide Medium
Parks
Damage/ stress to parkland Extreme heat, drought Citywide High
Increased costs for maintenance and
water use Extreme heat, drought Citywide
Damage to beach area SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Adaptive Capacity Analysis: Buildings and Properties
Many assets have existing plans, policies, and investments that either address climate impacts or can help to foster adaptation to climate change. Table 8 provides a list and description of existing asset planning documents and an adaptive capacity ranking for the buildings and properties sector.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 33 Table 8: Adaptive Capacity Analysis for Building and Property Assets Key Asset Categories Adaptive Capacity
Rating
Description
Buildings and properties Medium; Low in the
coastal zone
• City adopted the Green Building Standards / Code
and guidelines which provide information on the
use of building systems and materials during home
construction or upgrades.
• Extensive policy and program structure make
buildings more water resilient: Santa Monica Water
Efficient Landscape and Irrigation Standards, Green
Building Ordinance, Santa Monica Saves landscape
rebate program. Relatively inexpensive to change
out landscaping and vegetation.
• Local Coastal program SLR policy will provide
guidance for buildings and properties in the coastal
zone.
• Most improvements for existing building and
property are outside the City’s control.

City-Service Buildings High • City is stalling new water and energy efficiency measures in city facilities.

Schools Medium
• Schools are outside City jurisdictional control.
• Measure BB to modernize schools in the Santa
Monica-Malibu Unified School District using
sustainable design criteria.

Parks Medium
• Santa Monica has a Park and Recreation Master
Plan; however, it has not been updated since 1997.
• City is instituting water saving measures at parks
and landscape sites.
• Santa Monica Beach Restoration Pilot Project will
create a living shoreline to support beach
adaptation.
• Santa Monica Urban Forest Master Plan mentions
drought. City provides separate urban care
instructions for watering during drought.

Several existing plans, programs, and guides provides specific information on how buildings and properties citywide can adapt to climate change. Santa Monica’s Water-efficient Landscape and Irrigation standards, Park and Recreation Master Plan, Green Building standards, Santa Monica Saves, and the Residential Green Building Guide, among others, allow buildings and properties to be more resilient to climate change.

In particular, the Local Coastal Plan has the goal of establishing land use and development policies while considering the coast as a resource. The Local Coastal Plan is currently being updated to ensure that Santa Monica’s policies reflect the physical environment of 2016. The sophisticated modeling is allowing the City to form policy that can anticipate and potentially mitigate sea level rise impacts on coastal properties.

City-service buildings have the highest capacity to adapt primarily because the City has more control over how and whether these buildings are retrofitted or weatherized with more energy efficient and weather proofing measures. For example, the City Services Building, with the Living Building Challenge certification, will be an example of an emergency center that the Santa Monica community can utilize during an extreme weather event when they need to be in a building that will still be operating during an earthquake, tsunami or extreme heat event. Using a weather system that will help capture cool air coming off the Pacific Ocean to cool the interior of the building, passive windows, solar panels for power, and batteries to store energy, the City Services Building can be 34 |
used in any extreme event. Buildings, schools, and parks, were ranked as having medium adaptive capacity. Buildings and properties in the coastal zone have a much lower adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability Assessment: Buildings and Properties
Based on each key assets sensitivity ranking and adaptive capacity rating, a vulnerability assessment score was assigned to each asset as shown in Table 9. Buildings and city-service buildings were ranked as having low vulnerability, as the City has a number of programs, plans, and policies geared towards increasing adaptation for these sites. Schools and parks were received a medium ranking.

Buildings and properties in the coastal zone were rated as having high vulnerability as they are highly sensitive to SLR and coastal flooding, and have low capacity to adapt to these changes.

Table 9: Vulnerability Assessment
Key Asset Categories Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
Buildings and properties Medium Medium Low
Buildings and properties in the coastal zone High Low High City-service Buildings Medium High Low
Schools Medium Medium Medium
Parks High Medium Medium
Populations and Public Health
The populations and public health sector includes all Santa Monica’s populations with special attention paid to those who are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as older adults, young children, people with chronic disease and disabilities, and low-income populations. It also summarizes the impacts of climate change on public health. For the purposes of this analysis, populations and public health include the general population and vulnerable population groups, such as people with disabilities or chronic medical conditions, the homeless, outdoor workers, older adults, and youth.

Exposures and Sensitivity Analysis: Populations and Public Health
Social vulnerabilities and biological sensitivities of a population can affect exposure to climate hazards and their sensitivity to impacts. Both gradual climate change and climate events can expose people to a wide range of stress-inducing and hazardous situations (i.e. emergency evacuations, more illnesses due to increased air pollution and aeroallergen concentration, increased energy costs during extreme heat events), which can result in greater negative health outcomes. Older adults, young children, and people with chronic diseases and disabilities are more biologically sensitive to impacts from the effects of climate change, such as droughts, extreme heat, and air quality impacts.

In addition, low-income populations, including homeless populations, and communities of color are generally more likely to be exposed to natural hazards and climate events, are more sensitive to these hazards, and have the least amount of resources to cope. Table 10 provides data on subpopulations at risk to climate change.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 35 Table 10: Social Vulnerability Indicators
2000* 2010** 2015***
Total Percent Total Percent Total Percent
Socioeconomic
Population below the poverty level 8,636 10% 10,018 11% 10,351 11% Unemployed population (age 16 and
over)
3,756 5% 3,960 5% 5,111 6%
Population with less than high school
degree
6,062 9% 3,552 5% 3,412 5%
Demographic
Age 5 and under 3,448 4% 3,696 4% 4,093 4%
Under age 18 12,314 15% 12,580 14% 12,629 14%
Age 65 and over 12,078 14% 13,416 15% 14,820 16%
Age 65 and over living alone 4,729 6% 5,551 6% 5,943 6% Non-White (including Hispanic or
Latino)
23,602 28% 26,819 30% 30,403 33%
Speaks English less than 'very well' 8,725 11% 7,977 9% 8,737 10% Housing and Households
Renters 51,892 64% 57,543 68% 60,446 69%
Households without a vehicle
available
4,765 11% 4,390 9% 4,821 10%
Homeless**** N/A N/A 742 N/A 738 N/A
*2000 Census Summary Files
**2010 Census Summary Files or 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates ***2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates **** Santa Monica Homeless Count
Social Equity Index
A population vulnerability index was conducted in Santa Monica to understand the geographic locations of populations impacted by overlapping social vulnerabilities. The index was calculated by overlaying different variables (population density, proximity to schools, age index, and means of transportation) to determine areas with high and low population vulnerability. The results of the analysis are shown in Figure . Areas of high population vulnerability can be seen throughout Santa Monica, however these areas are mostly located around the Montana and Wilshire corridors and in the Pico neighborhood.
36 |
Figure 18: Vulnerability Index
Source: City of Santa Monica, Tree Planting Priority Model Households without cars, renter households, non-white and low-income households walk more on average. Results show that the highest social equity scores in the Pico and Mid City neighborhoods, with a higher score representing greater social equity disparities. Santa Monica recognizes the need to prioritize active and public transportation investments in the sectors of the community where walking may be more critical according to analysis under the Pedestrian Action Plan.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 37 Figure 19. Population Vulnerability Age Index
Figure 19 displays two age groups – under 18 years and over 65 years of age. Downtown/Civic Center and 10 freeway corridor, an industrial pocket in the Pico neighborhood, and an area adjacent to the Ocean Park neighborhood have smaller populations of older and younger citizen. The Sunset Park neighborhood contains a notable population of both younger and older citizens, as well as pockets in Ocean Park, Northeast, and Mid-City. Yet, the greatest concentration of young/older populations is in the North of Montana neighborhood (Santa Monica Tree Planting Priority Model – not published).

Seniors are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In California, seniors may be isolated and living alone, threatened by hunger, and/or living in or near poverty. The aging population is more vulnerable to some climate change impacts, like rising temperatures and worsening air quality.

Additionally, the aging population has different mobility needs than the rest of the population.

Over 20% of the population in Santa Monica is over 60. In 2016, Meals on Wheels served 342 Santa Monica-based seniors looking for food services. Most of these seniors are “homebound,” meaning that they have difficulty leaving home due to frailty, age, chronic disease, recent hospitalization, mental health issues, etc. Focusing on active transportation is not the right fit for many aging residents. This is where innovation in the space of public transportation and ride sharing can help make public transportation more flexible, convenient, and accessible for seniors.

Environmental inequity is an important factor in determining population vulnerability. Communities of color and low income people have historically bore the burden of polluting industries and roadways with fewer services available to them. The highest percentage of Latinos living in Santa Monica (26%) live in the Pico neighborhood (90404) which was designated by CalEnviroScreen 3.0 as a disadvantaged community. Latinos (both white and non-white) make up about 15% of the Santa Monica population. As exemplified in the City’s Wellbeing Index, Latino residents reported the least amount of physical activity and have a lower fruit and vegetable consumption. Also, the lowest rates of use of outdoor space for leisure activities were among the Latino population. Perhaps not coincidentally, the 90404 zip code the highest asthma rate among residents (12.1%). 38 |
Table 11 summarizes potential impacts by key populations and presents a sensitivity rating. Both general and vulnerable population groups were ranked as having medium sensitivity to climate change impacts. However, it is important to note that outdoor workers, in particular, are more sensitive to climate impacts, since they work outdoors and are more exposed, often lack control over their work conditions, and employers may vary significantly in their compliance with worker protection standards.

Table 11: Sensitivity Analysis
Potential Impacts Climate Hazard Extent Sensitivity
Rating
General population
Increased morbidity and mortality due to
extreme heat events and poor air quality
Extreme heat, air quality,
drought Citywide
Medium
Decreased outdoor time and increased
indoor time, which leads to decreased
physical activity
Extreme heat Citywide
Increased vector-borne disease Extreme heat Citywide
Delays in emergency response times due
to increased traffic and visitors to the
beach during extreme heat days
Extreme heat Citywide
Increased impacts on water supply and
contamination of water supply Extreme heat, drought Citywide and regional Vulnerable populations
People with disabilities are more sensitive
to impacts from climate change
Extreme heat, drought, air
quality, SLR and coastal
flooding
Citywide
Medium
Use of electronic medical devices may be
affected in power outages
Extreme heat, wildfire, SLR
and coastal flooding Citywide
Isolated people (i.e. older adults or
linguistically isolated households) are at
greater risk to extreme heat
Extreme heat Citywide
Homeless people are more exposed during
extreme heat events, have limited shelter
and methods to cool down
Extreme heat; coastal
flooding Citywide
Impacts on low-income household due to
increased food and utility costs Drought, extreme heat Citywide Greater health impacts to outdoor
workers (i.e. construction workers,
gardeners, service workers)
Extreme heat Citywide
Increased biological susceptibility of older
adults and young children to warmer
weather
Extreme heat, drought Citywide
Increased respiratory disease and visits to
the emergency department / doctor
among youth
Air quality, extreme heat Citywide
CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 39 Adaptive Capacity Analysis: Populations and Public Health Santa Monica has numerous plans and policies that address climate hazard impacts on public health.

Table 12 provides a list and description of existing strategies or actions and an adaptive capacity ranking for specific population groups and impacts on health.

Table 12: Adaptive Capacity Analysis
Key Asset Categories Adaptive
Capacity
Rating
Description
General population Medium
• City maintains numerous planning and operations
documents related to emergency management and hazard
mitigation. These include the All Hazards Mitigation Plan and the Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan.
• Santa Monica maintains a CERT program.
• Hospitals, such as Providence Santa John’s Health Center and UCLA Medical Center, maintain emergency operations
and surge protocol for hazard events.
• City is part of the Los Angeles West Vector & Vector-Borne Disease Control District.
• California code requires employers to provide basic
elements to protect outdoor workers, such as water,
shade, and rest breaks, etc. (Cal Code of Regs, Title 8, §3395. Heat Illness Prevention).
• City’s Energy Savings Assistance Program provides incomequalified residents with home repairs and new energy efficient appliances.

Vulnerability populations Medium
Vulnerability Assessment: Populations and Public Health Based on each key asset sensitivity ranking and adaptive capacity rating, a vulnerability assessment score was assigned to each asset as shown in Table 13. General population and vulnerable populations were ranked as having medium vulnerability. However, within vulnerable populations, outdoor workers were ranked as having the highest vulnerability, primarily because they are so exposed and sensitive to extreme heat and air pollution from working outside.

Table 13: Vulnerability Assessment
Key Asset Categories Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
General Population Medium Medium Medium
Vulnerable Population Medium Medium Medium
Infrastructure
This sector covers a range of infrastructure assets located within the City of Santa Monica and across the region. For the purposes of this analysis infrastructure includes: water infrastructure (physical infrastructure needed to convey, treat, and distribute water resources), water supply, sanitary sewer infrastructure, stormwater infrastructure, transportation infrastructure (roads and parking, bicycle paths), energy supply and transmission, and telephone communications. Each asset category is managed by an overlapping set of local or regional agencies, as shown in Table 14. .
40 |
Table 14: Examples of Infrastructure Agencies
Key Asset Categories Examples of State, Regional, and Local Management Agencies Water Infrastructure City of Santa Monica
Water Supply Metropolitan Water District, California Department of Water Resources, City of Santa Monica,
Sanitary Sewer Infrastructure City of Santa Monica, Hyperion Water Reclamation Plant Stormwater Infrastructure City of Santa Monica, City of Los Angeles Roads and Parking Caltrans, City of Santa Monica
Bicycle Infrastructure City of Santa Monica
Energy Supply and Infrastructure Southern California Edison, SoCalGas Telecommunications City of Santa Monica
Exposures and Sensitivity Analysis: Infrastructure
Both gradual climate change and climate hazards will expose the City’s infrastructure and water and energy supply to additional stress in the future. This exposure will be local (e.g. SLR and coastal flooding places the City’s water infrastructure at greater risk) and regional (e.g. changes in the timing and amount of precipitation compromises the City’s imported water supply).

The Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Assessment examined infrastructure in Santa Monica vulnerable to different SLR and coastal flooding scenarios. Table 15 summarizes the number of facilities and the linear miles of different types of infrastructure to storm flooding during a 100-year event. Transportation assets, including roadways and bikeways, are the most exposed to SLR and coastal flooding, with over four linear miles of assets exposed by 2080/2100.

Table 15: Infrastructure Exposed to Storm Flooding and SLR Asset Categories Baseline 3’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR by 2080
2010 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 280
Roadway and Bikeways (linear
miles)

0.2 0.2 0.7 3.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 4.3
Water Treatment and Pump
Stations
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sanitary Sewer Lines (linear
miles)
Unk. Unk. Unk. Unk. Unk. Unk. Unk. Unk.

Stormwater Pump Stations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stormwater Mains and Culvers
(linear miles)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8
Source: ESA, 2016. LA County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment Report.

Table 16 summarizes potential impacts by key infrastructure assets and presents a sensitivity rating.

Water infrastructure, roads, and energy supply and infrastructure were ranked as having the highest sensitivity to climate change hazards, suggesting that climate hazards may cause irreversible damage to a particular asset. Water supply, sanitary sewer, and stormwater ranked as having medium sensitivity to change. These assets categories were likely to be sensitivity to change but the impacts were likely to be reversible. Telecommunications infrastructure had the lowest sensitivity.

In Santa Monica, there are many key water infrastructure assets. The Santa Monica Urban Runoff Recycling Facility (SMURRF) was built to eliminate the pollution of Santa Monica Bay caused by urban runoff during dry season. SMURRF processes dry season urban runoff and the treated water goes into the purple pipes around the city to irrigate parks and public landscapes.

SMURFF is located next to the pier and provides more than just water treatment, it also educates the public about urban runoff pollution and their role in preventing it. In addition, the Sustainable CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 41 Water Infrastructure Project (SWIP) is set to begin soon to improve drought resilience, increase water supply and enhance the flexibility in managing the City’s water resources.

The SWIP takes an integrated approach to treating storm water runoff, brackish groundwater, and municipal wastewater for beneficial (non-potable) reuse. This project would help the city achieve its goal of water self-sufficiency by 2020, improve beach water quality and provide for compliance with new State non-point source pollution control regulations.

Table 16: Sensitivity Analysis of Key Infrastructure Assets Potential Impacts Climate Hazard Extent Sensitivity
Rating
Water infrastructure
Damage/ stress to supply infrastructure SLR, coastal flooding, extreme heat
Coastal Santa
Monica High
Water Supply
Salt water intrusion in groundwater basin,
e.g. City sources
SLR and coastal flooding Regional
Medium
Decreasing water supply from imported
sources, e.g. MWD
Precipitation, extreme heat,
drought
Regional
Increased water demand due to heat and
drought
Extreme heat, drought Citywide; regional
Reduced recycled water to for irrigation
and commercial use
Precipitation, extreme heat,
drought
Citywide
Additional cost to treat potable water SLR, extreme heat, drought Citywide Sanitary Sewer Infrastructure
Back-up of sanitary sewer lines,
particularly at Hyperion Plant
SLR and coastal flooding Citywide
Damage to sewer lines, pump stations, Medium
and treatment plants
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Increased demand on infrastructure Extreme heat Citywide Stormwater Infrastructure
Potential for overflow and localized flood SLR and flooding Citywide Potential to exceed SMURRF capacity SLR and flooding Coastal Santa Medium Monica
Roads and Parking
Damage to roadways and parking SLR and flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Increase in traffic congestion due to High
increased number of visitors to the beach
during warmer weather
Extreme heat Citywide
Bicycle Infrastructure
Damage to bicycle path along the beach SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica Medium
Energy Supply and Infrastructure
Damage to powerlines; locally and
regionally
SLR and flooding, wildfires Coastal Santa
Monica; regional High Increased energy use Temperature, extreme heat Citywide; regional Potential black/brown outs Wildfires, extreme heat Citywide; region Local Energy Generation
Damage to solar panels Wildfires, extreme heat Citywide Medium Telecommunications Infrastructure
Damage to telephone poles, loss of
communications
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica Low
42 |
In terms of bike infrastructure, Santa Monica’s Bike Action Plan has guided the city to create a complete network of high-quality bicycle facilities with the aim of increasing the number of people who use bicycles for everyday transportation, to ensure that the bicycle network is attractive to cyclists of all ages and experience levels, and to create a safe, comfortable cycling environment in the city through facility design and public education.

Adaptive Capacity Analysis: Infrastructure
Although numerous City infrastructure assets are exposed to gradual climate change and climate hazards, many sectors have existing plans, policy, and implementation programs that either address climate impacts or can be adapted to address climate change. Table 17 provides a list and description of existing asset planning documents and an adaptive capacity ranking.

Table 17: Adaptive Capacity Analysis of Infrastructure Assets Key Asset Categories Adaptive Capacity
Rating
Description
Water Supply and
Infrastructure Medium
• Adopted Urban Water Management Plan addresses
long-term supply, including 3-year drought cycles.
• Adopted Sustainable Water Master Plan guides
infrastructure, water source, and demand management
measures to increase resilience to climate change.
• Developed Water Shortage Response Plan to reduce
water demand during water shortages.

Sanitary Sewer
Infrastructure Medium
• Sanitary Sewer Management Plan provides guidance on
system update and maintenance.
• Plan does not currently address climate hazards.

Stormwater
Infrastructure Medium
• Santa Monica Watershed Management Plan guides
stormwater activities and watershed management
projects.
• City budget and capital improvement plan allocates
funds to divert and treat urban runoff and implement
water reuse.

Roads and Parking Low
• City needs to collaborate with Caltrans to minimize
flooding along the Pacific Coast Highway. Caltrans has
already conducted vulnerability assessment of roads in
District 7.
• Limited adaptation options, with little opportunity for planned retreat.

Bicycle Infrastructure High
• Bike Action Plan in place to move or modify coastal
bike infrastructure, though not currently addressed.
• New projects can be easily being incorporated into the Bike Action Plan with a relatively low cost.

Energy Supply and
Infrastructure Medium
• City facilitates numerous energy generation and
efficiency programs, including Solar Santa Monica and
Santa Monica PACE.

Telecommunications Medium • None
Several existing plans and programs provide specific resilience benefits for the City. The City’s Sustainable Water Master Plan, Stormwater Watershed Management Plan, Urban Water Management Plan, and renewable energy generation and efficiency programs, for example, address climate hazards or provide programs that make the City more resilient to climate change. Even those plans which may not address climate hazards directly, such as the Sanitary Sewer Master Plan and Bike Action Plan, could be updated to incorporate a discussion of climate impacts.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 43 Roads received the lowest adaptive capacity ranking due to limited adaption options related to Highway 1, as well as the complexities of cross jurisdictional collaboration. Bicycle infrastructure received the highest adaptive capacity ranking due to existing plan documents and the relatively low cost of moving infrastructure.

Vulnerability Assessment: Infrastructure
Based on each key assets’ sensitivity rank and adaptive capacity rating, a vulnerability assessment rank was assigned to each asset as shown in Table 18. Roads and parking received the highest vulnerability ranking. Water supply and infrastructure, sanitary sewer infrastructure, stormwater infrastructure, and energy supply and infrastructure received a medium ranking. Bicycle infrastructure, local energy generation, and telecommunications received the lowest vulnerability ranking.

Table 18: Infrastructure Asset Vulnerability Assessment Key Asset Categories Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
Water Infrastructure High Medium Medium
Water Supply Medium Medium Medium
Sanitary Sewer Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium
Stormwater Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium
Roads and Parking High Low High
Bicycle Infrastructure Medium High Low
Energy Supply and Infrastructure High Medium Medium
Local Energy Generation Medium Medium Low
Telecommunications Low Medium Low
Ecosystems and Habitat
This sector is comprised of natural and urban landscapes in Santa Monica. Natural landscapes include the City’s beach and nearshore ocean habitat. It also includes developed habitats within the City’s urbanized area, including urban forests, both publically- and privately-owned. These assets provide critical spaces for local flora and fauna and provide ecosystem services, such storm surge protection and stormwater capture and treatment, among many others. Parks and vegetation/ landscaping, which also provide ecosystem services, are included within the buildings and properties sector.

Exposures and Sensitivity Analysis: Ecosystems and Habitat Climate hazards will expose ecosystems and habitat located within and adjacent to Santa Monica to additional stress in the future. SLR and coastal flooding may erode coastal beach, reducing beach area and stressing local flora and fauna, such as the western snowy plover. Ocean acidification will affect marine life. Changes in precipitation, drought, and extreme heat days can reduce soil moisture, increase evaporation and increase the need to water vegetation and street trees.

The Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Assessment assessed ecosystem assets in Santa Monica vulnerable to a flooding during a 100-year event.

Table 19 summarizes the exposed area of ecosystems, including beaches, brackish wetlands, and fresh wetlands, as defined in the National Wetlands Inventory. Marine systems were classified as beaches; estuarine systems were marked as brackish wetlands; and riverine, lacustrine, and palustrine systems were marked as fresh wetlands.
44 |
Table 19: Area of Ecosystems Exposed to Storm Flooding and SLR in Santa Monica Asset Categories Baseline 3’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR by 2100 5.5’ SLR by 2080
2010 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 280
Beach (acres) 167 176 192 221 185 211 226 226
Salty wetland (acres) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Fresh wetland (acres 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source: ESA, 2016. Los Angeles County Coastal Hazard Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment Technical Methods Report.

Table 20 summarizes the potential impacts by key assets and presents a sensitivity rating. Urban forests, beach, and ocean habitats were ranked as having the highest sensitivity to climate change hazards. It is expected that climate hazards may have irreversible damage to these assets.

Table 20: Sensitivity Analysis of Key Ecosystem Assets
Potential Impacts Climate Hazard Extent Sensitivity
Rating
Urban Forests
Damage/ stress to tree health Precipitation, extreme heat, drought
Citywide
High Reduced services, including air quality,
carbon sequestration, shade
Precipitation, extreme heat,
drought
Citywide
Increased costs for maintenance and
water use
Precipitation, extreme heat,
drought
Citywide
Beach Habitat
Inundation of beach area, increased
flooding potential
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
High
Loss of natural habitat SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Change in migration and feeding patterns
for fauna such as the western snowy
plover
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Reduced beach tourism related to bird
watching
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Ocean Habitat
Change in species habitat SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
High Impacts commercial and recreational
fishing
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Changes to the near-shore zone SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Adaptive Capacity Analysis: Ecosystems and Habitat
Table 21 provides a list and description of existing asset planning documents and an adaptive capacity ranking. Several existing plans and programs provide specific adaptation benefits for the City. The City’s Urban Forest Master Plan, and Guidelines for Watering during a Drought program mitigate the potential impacts of climate change.

Santa Monica’s Urban Forest Master Plan describes the City’s urban forest, analyzes its condition and compares it growth to previous years. The plan establishes guiding principles and associated goals that result in specific strategies for addressing the needs of the urban forest. These strategies take into consideration environmental and urban conditions that fluctuate over time, and are flexible enough to account for future changes that will affect the trees of the urban forest, such as insects, CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 45 disease, climate shifts, and other factors. The Master Plan also sets guidelines for periodic tree species performance evaluations and adjustments in the use of individual species.

Table 21: Adaptive Capacity Analysis of Ecosystem and Habitat Assets Key Asset Categories Adaptive Capacity
Rating
Description
Urban Forests Medium
• Santa Monica Urban Forest Master Plan mentions
drought. City provides separate urban care instructions for watering during drought.

Beach Habitat Medium
• Santa Monica Beach Restoration Pilot Project will
create a living shoreline to support beach adaptation.
• Beach habitat areas requires cooperation of multiple
state and local agencies making restoration difficult
and time-consuming.

Ocean Habitat Low
• Ocean habitat areas requires cooperation of multiple
federal, state, and local agencies making restoration
difficult and time-consuming.

Ocean habitat received the lowest adaptive capacity ranking. Ocean habitat adaption will require cooperation among federal, state, and local agencies, increasing the time and complexity to implement projects. The beach habitat area and urban forest received a medium adaptive capacity rank. Like the ocean zone, the beach area will require cooperation among many agency partners to implement adaptive measures, such as the Santa Monica Beach Restoration Project.

Vulnerability Assessment: Ecosystems and Habitat
A vulnerability assessment score was assigned to each ecosystem and habitat asset as shown in Table 22. Ocean habitat received the highest vulnerability score, owing to the many potential impacts to marine life and habitat, and limited adaptation options the City can implement. Urban forests and beach habitat received a medium ranking.

Table 22: Ecosystem and Habitat Vulnerability Assessment Key Asset Categories Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
Urban Forests High Medium Medium
Beach Habitat High Medium Medium
Ocean Habitat High Low High
46 |
Economy
This sector covers economic assets in Santa Monica, including beach tourism and recreation, the Santa Monica Pier, and the businesses located within the city. These assets drive innovation and the diverse economy.

Exposures and Sensitivity Analysis: Economy
Climate change will impact Santa Monica’s economic assets, potentially generating both positive and negative impacts. Warmer temperatures and more extreme heat days regionally may be a boon to Santa Monica’s coastal businesses and beach tourism as more people flock to cooler coastal locations for recreation and shopping. While at the same time, SLR and coastal flooding may erode coastal beach area and damage Santa Monica pier businesses and concessionaires. These potential impacts may result in lost business income, reduced tax revenue, and fewer jobs for residents.

According to the Wellbeing Index, perspectives on economic opportunity were most positive in the 90402 zip code and among older people. The places of greatest economic concern were in the 90404 and the 90401 zip codes (Pico neighborhood and Downtown Santa Monica). Economic opportunity is comprised of worries about paying rent or credit card bills, worry about losing a job, and concern that children will not be able to afford Santa Monica as adults.

Table 23 summarizes potential impacts by key economic assets and presents a sensitivity rating. The Santa Monica pier ranked as having the highest sensitivity to climate change hazards, particularly SLR. It is anticipated that climate hazards may cause irreversible damage to the pier. Beach tourism and recreation and local Santa Monica businesses ranked as having medium sensitivity to change.

Table 23: Sensitivity Analysis of Key Economic Assets
Potential Impacts Climate Hazard Extent Sensitivity
Rating
Beach Tourism and Recreation
Increased demand for beach access and
recreation due to higher temperatures
Temperature, extreme heat Citywide
Medium
Increased traffic congestion as a result of
increased visitors
Temperature, extreme heat Citywide
Higher tourist revenue / lost tourism
revenue
Temperature, extreme heat,
SLR and coastal flooding
Citywide
Higher sales tax revenue / lost sale tax
revenue
Temperature, extreme heat,
SLR and coastal flooding
Citywide
Beach loss due to SLR and coastal
flooding
SLR and coastal flooding Citywide
Santa Monica Pier
Increased demand for beach access and
recreation due to higher temperatures
Temperature, extreme heat Citywide
High
Higher tourist revenue Extreme heat Citywide
Damage to the pier structure SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa Monica
Damage to pier businesses and
concessionaires. Lost economic revenue
and jobs.

SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Businesses
Higher tourist revenue / lost tourism
revenue
Extreme heat, drought, SLR
and coastal flooding
Citywide
Medium Higher tax revenue / lost tax revenue Temperature, extreme heat, SLR and coastal flooding
Citywide
CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 47 Increased costs for water and energy Precipitation, drought Citywide Lost businesses and jobs, particularly
related to ecosystem services and the
coastal zone
SLR and coastal flooding Coastal Santa
Monica
Adaptive Capacity Analysis: Economy
Table 24 provides a list and description of existing asset planning documents and an adaptive capacity ranking for the City’s economic assets. Several existing plans and programs provide specific adaptation benefits for the City, including the Local Coastal program SLR policy, the Green Business Program, and the Beach Restoration Project.

Table 24: Adaptive Capacity Analysis of Economic Assets Key Asset Categories Adaptive Capacity
Rating
Existing Planning, Policy, or Action
Beach tourism and
recreation Medium
• Local coastal Program Sea Level Policy outlines key
actions to minimize damage to the beach.
• Santa Monica Beach Restoration Pilot Project will
Santa Monica Pier Low create a living shoreline to support beach adaptation.

Businesses Medium • Santa Monica Green Business program helps businesses increase resource efficiency.

Vulnerability Assessment: Economy
A vulnerability assessment score was assigned to each economic asset as shown in Table 25. The Santa Monica Pier received the highest vulnerability score. Beach recreation and businesses received a medium ranking.

Table 25: Economic Vulnerability Assessment
Key Asset Categories Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
Beach tourism and recreation Medium Medium Medium
Santa Monica Pier High Low High
Businesses Medium Medium Medium
48 |

5. Conclusion
This chapter provides a summary of the vulnerability assessment, prioritizes areas for future measures, and includes recommendations about future data collection. Table 26 is a summary of the vulnerability assessment of key assets and populations in Santa Monica, which were discussed in detail in Chapter 4. The identification of assets with the highest vulnerability to climate impacts provides a basis for prioritization of adaptation strategies and actions.

Priority Areas
The rankings of the key asset categories have been organized into four groups as shown in Table 26:
• Highest vulnerability (Group 1): These assets are highly sensitive to climate change and have low adaptive capacity.
• Medium-high vulnerability (Group 2): These assets are highly sensitive to climate change, but have medium adaptive capacity.
• Medium vulnerability (Group 3): These assets have medium sensitivity and adaptive capacity. • Lowest vulnerability (Group 4): These assets have low vulnerability to climate change.

Initial climate adaptation efforts may be focused on the top three groups; however specific assets within categories in the fourth group may need to be prioritized if sensitivity is high and/or adaptive capacity is low. An example of this is the Marvin Braude Bike Trail or the Strand. This path is highly sensitive to SLR and coastal flooding; however the City has existing plans, the Bike Action Plan, and funding sources to leverage for adaptation.

Additionally, adaptation actions that would be easier to implement can and should be enacted quickly, however, some actions will require more coordination with difference stakeholders and partnerships across agencies and levels of governments to accomplish. These actions should be implemented in the near-term to ensure that adaptation strategies will be achieved.

CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 49 Table 26: Summary Table of Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability Ratings Key Asset Categories Sector Sensitivity
Rating
Adaptive
Capacity
Rating
Vulnerability
Rating
Highest Vulnerability (Group 1)
Buildings and properties in
coastal zone Buildings and Properties High Low High
Roads and Parking Infrastructure High Low High
Ocean Habitat Ecosystems and Habitats High Low High
Santa Monica Pier Economy High Low High
Medium-High Vulnerability (Group 2)
Parks Buildings and Properties High Medium Medium
Water Infrastructure Infrastructure High Medium Medium
Energy Supply and
Infrastructure Infrastructure High Medium Medium
Urban Forests Ecosystems and Habitats High Medium Medium Beach Habitat Ecosystems and Habitats High Medium Medium Medium Vulnerability (Group 3)
Schools Buildings and Properties Medium Medium Medium
General Population Populations and Public
Health Medium Medium Medium
Vulnerable Population Populations and Public
Health Medium Medium Medium
Water Supply Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium
Sanitary Sewer Infrastructure Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium Stormwater Infrastructure Infrastructure Medium Medium Medium Beach tourism and recreation Economy Medium Medium Medium Businesses Economy Medium Medium Medium
Lowest Vulnerability (Group 4)
City-service Buildings Buildings and Properties Medium High Low Bicycle Infrastructure Infrastructure Medium High Low
Buildings and properties –
generally Buildings and Properties Medium Medium Low
Local Energy Generation Infrastructure Medium Medium Low Telecommunications Infrastructure Low Medium Low
Highest Vulnerability (Group 1)
Buildings in the coastal zone, roads and parking, ocean habitat, and the Santa Monica Pier were ranked as having the highest vulnerability rating.

These assets were ranked as having the highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity. Santa Monica should prioritize efforts to adapt these assets to climate change; however, the City may have limited jurisdictional control over these assets. Partnerships with state and federal agencies, private businesses, and homeowners will be essential for adaptation. This partly explains why the adaptive capacity of these assets were ranked low, as multiple entities, both private and public, manage or regulate these assets, and coordination among these stakeholders may be seen a barrier.

Additionally, some vulnerabilities, such as acidification of the ocean, is a global climate issue with limited actions the City can take to address. Adaptation measures to increase the climate resiliency of these assets will take time to enact and may require a great deal of education and coordination with stakeholders. Therefore, strategies and actions should be implemented in the near term. 50 |
Medium-High Vulnerability (Group 2)
Parks, water infrastructure, energy supply and infrastructure, urban forests, beach habitat were ranked as having medium vulnerability, with high sensitivity and medium adaptive capacity.

These assets had high sensitivity and medium adaptive capacity, meaning that although they can be greatly impacted by climate change, the City has a number of current plans and programs in place to address many of these assets. There are also many opportunities to strengthen existing plans and programs and/or institute new actions that can decrease these assets’ vulnerability to climate change.

For some assets, there are potentially significant barriers and considerations for adapting these assets to climate impacts. For example, the City has limited control over much of the energy supply and infrastructure in Santa Monica. Therefore, partnerships with state agencies and public utilities will be needed, which will require coordination across government agencies.

The City’s planning and implementation framework for the urban forest will help to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and changes in precipitation, but will require action from City departments.

Making sure the City’s Urban Forest Master Plan and Street Tree Planting Guide align with changing climate conditions, identifying the locations of non-drought-tolerant tree species and re-planting trees, enacting more stringent planting requirements, and monitoring tree stress under changing climate conditions are a few actions the City can pursue.

Medium Vulnerability (Group 3)
General and vulnerable population groups, schools, water supply, sanitary sewer infrastructure, stormwater infrastructure, beach tourism and recreation, and businesses were ranked as medium vulnerability, with medium sensitivity and adaptive capacity rankings.

These assets were ranked as having medium sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Although seemingly uniform, there may be assets or populations within each of these categories that may be sensitive and/or have lower adaptive capacity. It would be important to identify and prioritize these subassets or population groups for adaptation. For example, storm drain outfalls in the coastal zone are very sensitive to SLR and coastal flooding. Outdoor workers, such as construction workers or landscapers, are more exposed to weather and outdoor conditions, often lack control over their work conditions, and employers may vary in their compliance with worker protection standards. Other vulnerable groups, such as the homeless populations and older adults living alone, are also more sensitive and are more likely to have less adaptive capacity. Planning structures and programs should be established to facilitate long-term adaptation of these assets and populations.

Lowest Vulnerability (Group 4)
City-services buildings, bicycle infrastructure, general buildings and properties, local energy generation, and telecommunications were ranked as lower vulnerability.

These assets were ranking as having the lowest vulnerability. Although lower in vulnerability, there may be assets within each of these asset categories that may be more sensitive and/or have lower adaptive capacity. For example, older homes and private buildings may be much more sensitive to extreme heat and air pollution intrusion due to poor weather proofing. Actions may also be limited to increase adaptation, as private homeowners and businesses may be unwilling or unable to invest in upgrades, and renters may have limited control over housing quality. Programs, such as incentives and rebates for home improvements and energy efficiency upgrades, could be implemented to target CITY OF SANTA MONICA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 51 low-income homeowners and business owners. Model tenant - landlord agreements can be created so that all parties can equally share in the costs and benefits of efficiency upgrades.

Future Data Collection
More information can be gathered to help inform and prioritize the development of adaptation actions for key assets.

Develop metrics to monitor climate change-related trends Metrics can be used to monitor climate change impacts on key assets over time. These metrics could consist of the beach spatial extent, accessibility and use of the beach, economics from beach trades, number of extreme heat days, emergency room visits due to asthma or other respiratory diseases during warmer than usual weather, water usage in the City, and percent of the water supply from local groundwater sources. Metrics should also track changes in the climate hazards, including number of extreme heat days and droughts. Understanding this data can help the City evaluate implementation of actions and make adjustments in the future.

Conduct social vulnerability assessment
The City can identify the locations of vulnerable populations of greatest concern (i.e. low-income populations, older residential buildings, people with disabilities, etc.) through outreach and engagement with the community. The first step in this process would be to identify the factors that increase exposure and sensitivity to climate change and reduce people’s adaptive capacity in Santa Monica. This information can be used to inform adaptation strategies to target vulnerable populations at greatest climate risk and how they are carried out. CalEnviroScreen provides a framework for understanding multiple burden; however, the tool’s focus is environmental hazards.

Map community assets
Santa Monica can work with community members and groups to identify and map community assets that support resilience, such as schools, religious institutions, and community centers. This process can serve dual purposes of identifying trusted and valued community facilities that can be used during emergencies or disasters and prioritizing community assets for adaptation.

Next Steps – Adaptation Strategies
The Santa Monica Vulnerability Assessment completes the initial vulnerability analysis steps outlined by the California Adaptation Planning Guide (as described in Chapter 2 of this report). Adaptation strategy development will be completed as part of the preparation of the City’s CAAP roadmaps. This phase will include:

1. Identifying strategies to address the highest priority adaptation needs;

2. Prioritizing strategies based on the projected impacts, co-benefits, and other feasibility factors; and

3. Developing an implementation plan that includes phasing of strategies and a monitoring system to assess effectiveness.