3. Ending Balance of LMIHAF: This section provides a statement of the balance in the LMIHAF as of the close of the Fiscal Year, distinguishing any amounts held for items listed on the ROPS from other amounts.
Cash $5,792,499
Restricted for Current Payables $136,227
Restricted for Encumbrances/Commitments $0
Anticipated Current Receivables $0
Available Cash Balance $5,656,572
4. Description of Expenditures from LMIHAF: This section provides a description of the expenditures made from the LMIHAF during the Fiscal Year. The expenditures are to be categorized by (A) for monitoring and preserving the long-term affordability of units subject to affordability restrictions or covenants entered into by the redevelopment agency or the housing successor and administering the activities described in paragraphs (2) and (3) of subdivision (a), (B) for homeless prevention and rapid rehousing services for the development of housing described in paragraph (2) or subdivision (a), and (C) for the development of housing pursuant to paragraph (3) of subdivision (a).
(A) Monitoring & Administration Expenditures $237,888.97 (B) Homeless Prevention & Rapid Rehousing Services Expenditures $245,819.04 (C) Housing Development Expenditures
Antioch Homeownership Program (AHOP) Administration $32,850.00 AHOP Loans Issued 0
Multi-Family Housing Loan Issued 0
Housing Rehabilitation Loan & Grant Program Administration & loans (17 grants, 2 loans)
$183,997.48
Total LMIHAF Expenditures $700,555.49
The Housing Successor is allowed to spend up to the greater of $254.500 (expenditure cap adjusted for 2024-25) or 2% of the value of the Housing Assets Portfolio (defined and calculated in Section 5) on Monitoring and Administration Expenditures. The total value of Antioch Housing Successor assets is $13,512,717, and 2% of this value is $270,254. Therefore, the maximum allowable amount for administrative expenditures and monitoring is the expenditure cap of $270.254. The agency has spent significantly less than this on administration this year. Homeless prevention and rapid rehousing services expenditures may not exceed $500,000 /year once obligations pursuant to Section 33413 and 33418 are fulfilled and the City meets this test.
5. Statutory Value of Assets Owned by Housing Successor: This section provides the statutory value of real property owned by the Housing Successor, the value of loans and grants receivables, and the sum of these two amounts. Under the Dissolution Law and for the purposes of this Report, the “statutory value of real property” means the value of properties formerly held by the former redevelopment agency as listed on the Housing Asset Transfer Schedule approved by the Department of Finance, as listed in such schedule under Section 34176(a)(2), the value of the properties transferred to the Housing Successor pursuant to Section 34181(f), and the purchase price of the property purchased by the Housing Successor.
6. Description of Transfers: This section describes any transfer to another housing agency made in previous Fiscal Year(s), including whether the funds are unencumbered and the status of projects, if any, for which the transferred LMIHAF will be used. The sole purpose of the transfers must be for the Statutory Value of Real Property $0
Value of Loans Receivable $13,512,717
Value of Grants Receivable $0
Value of Deferred Set-Aside (owed to Housing Fund) $0
Total Value of Assets: $13,512,717
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development of transit priority projects, permanent supportive housing, housing for agricultural employees or special needs housing.
The Housing Successor did not make an LMIHAF transfer to other Housing Successor(s) under Section 34176.1(c)(2) to develop a joint project during the Fiscal Year 2024-25.
7. P
roject Descriptions: This section describes any project for which the Housing Successor receives or holds property tax revenue pursuant to the Recognized Obligation Payment Schedule (ROPS) and the status of that project.
None remaining
8. S
tatus of Compliance with Section 33334.16: This section provides a status update on compliance with Section 33334.16 for interests in real property acquired by the former redevelopment agency prior t
o February 1, 2012. For interests in real property acquired on or after February 1, 2012, a status update on the project is provided.
Not Applicable – no properties purchased using LMIHF prior to or after February 1, 2012.
9. De
scription of Outstanding Obligations under Section 33413: This section describes the o
utstanding inclusionary and replacement housing obligations, if any, under Section 33413 that remained outstanding prior to dissolution of the former redevelopment agency as of February 1, 2012, a
long with the Housing Successor’s progress in meeting those prior obligations, if any, of the former redevelopment agency.
Replacement Housing: No Section 33413(a) replacement housing obligations were transferred to the Housing Successor according to the 2009-10 through 2015-16 City of Antioch Implementation Plan for the former Redevelopment Agency.
10. Inclusionary/Production Housing: No Section 33413(b) inclusionary/production housing obligations were transferred to the Housing Successor according to the 2009-10 through 2015-16 City of Antioch Implementation Plan for the former Redevelopment Agency. The former Redevelopment Agency’s Implementation Plans are posted on the City’s website at:
http://www.ci.antioch.ca.us/citygov/finance/econdev/default.htm.
Income Targeting Test: Section 34176.1(a)(3)(A) states that all funds remaining after the monitoring and administration and homeless prevention and rapid rehousing services expenditures are deducted must be used for the development of housing affordable to and occupied by households earning 80% or less of the area median income (AMI), with at least 30% of these remaining funds expended for the development of rental housing affordable to and occupied by households earning 30% or less of the AMI and no more than 20% of these remaining funds expended for the development of housing affordable to and occupied by households earning between 60% and 80% of the AMI. The Housing Successor must demonstrate in the 2019 annual report, and every five years thereafter, that the Housing Successor's expenditures from January 1, 2014 through the end of the latest fiscal year covered in the report comply with these requirements.
If the Housing Successor fails to comply with the Extremely-Low Income requirement in any five-year period, then the Housing Successor must ensure that at least 50% of the funds remaining in the LMIHAF be expended in each fiscal year following the latest fiscal year following the report on households earning 30% or less of the AMI until the Housing Successor demonstrates compliance with the Extremely-Low Income requirement.
If the Housing Successor exceeds the expenditure limit for households earning between 60% and 80% of the AMI in any five-year report, the Housing Successor shall not expend any of the remaining funds for households earning between 60% and 80% of the AMI until the Housing Successor demonstrates compliance with this limitation in an annual report.
B3
For purposes of this calculation, 'development' means new construction, acquisition and rehabilitation, substantial rehabilitation as defined in Section 33413, acquisition of long-term affordability covenants on multifamily units as described in Section 33413, or the preservation of an assisted housing development that is eligible for prepayment or termination or for which within the expiration of rental restrictions is scheduled to occur within five years.
Following is the Successor’s Extremely-Low Income Housing Test as of Fiscal Year (FY) 2024-25:
FY Type Description
HH Assisted by % of AMI
0-30% 31-50% 51-80%
2014-15 Rent Subsidy Senior mobile home park 46,748.38 30,991.68 19,800.24 Total Expenses 2014-15: 46,748.38 30,991.68 19,800.24 2015-16 Rent Subsidy Senior mobile home park 33,545.28 28,409.04 18,939.36 Total Expenses 2015-16: 33,545.28 28,409.04 18,939.36 2016-17 Rent Subsidy Senior mobile home park 26,211.36 29,826.72 19,884.48 Loan -Tabora Gardens 84 units senior/veteran/Homeless 216,000.00 384,000.00 - Total Expenses 2016-17: 242,211.36 413,826.72 19,884.48 2017-18 Rent Subsidy Senior mobile home park 5,649.00 8,134.56 4,067.28 Homeownership Down payment assistance 20,457.00
Total Expenses 2017-18: 5,649.00 8,134.56 4,067.28 2018-19 Homeownership Down payment assistance - 50,776.00 Total Expenses 2018-19: 50,776.00
2019-20 Homeownership Down payment assistance 19,688.00 Housing Rehabilitation Habitat Housing Rehab 35,760.54 - Total Expenses 2019-20: 35,760.54 19,688.00
2020-21 Housing Rehabilitation Habitat Housing Rehab 35,760.54 - - Total Expenses 2020-21 35,760.54
2021-22 Housing Rehabilitation Habitat Housing Rehab 27,261.00 48,406.00 164,939.00 Total Expenses 2021-22: 27,261.00 48,406.00 164,939.00 2022-23 Housing Rehabilitation Habitat Housing Rehab 149,447.36 82,790.26 80,260.00 Total Expenses 2022-23: 149,447.36 82,790.26 80,260.00 2023-24 Housing Rehabilitation Habitat Housing Rehab 118,811.35 42,889.00 145,438.77 Total Expenses 2023-24: 118,811.35 42,889.00 145,438.77 2024-25 Predevelopment Loan-
approved (funded 25-26)
Novin Development, 80 family units,
40 homeless PSH @ 0-40% AMI 1,000,000.00 50,000.00 Total Expenses 2024-25: 1,000,000.00 50,000.00 - Total spent on HH to date: 2,924,435.20 1,695,194.81 705,447.26 523,793.13 % spent on households to date 100% 57.97% 24.12% 17.91% 30%+ $ spent
on 0-30% AMI
<20% $ spent on
60-80% AMI
W
ith the loan commitment, approved by City Council in FY 2024-25 and to be signed in FY 2025-26, the City is in compliance with the set caps.
B4
Please note that the current project by Novin Development will be entering the predevelopment phase and will require the developer to obtain significantly more investments to make the projects feasible, and the unit mix may change with the availability and requirements of the other funding sources.
11. S
enior Housing Test: The Housing Successor is to calculate the percentage of units in deed-restricted rental housing that is restricted to seniors and assisted by the Housing Successor, the former redevelopment agency, and/or the City, within the previous 10 years, in relation to the aggregate number of units of deed-restricted rental housing assisted by the Housing Successor, the former redevelopment agency, and/or the City, within the same period. If this percentage exceeds 50%, then the Housing Su
ccessor cannot expend future funds in the LMIHAF to assist additional senior housing units until the Housing Successor or City assists, and construction has commenced, on a number of restricted rental units that is equal to 50% of the total amount of deed-restricted rental units.
Th
e following provides the Housing Successor’s Senior Housing Test for the 10-year period of FY 2014-15 to 2024-25:
Housing Development Name & Address Date Assisted # Units Senior
# Units
Family
Tabora Gardens (85 units, 84 affordable, completed
construction May 2018) 6/1/2011 & 2016 84 0
TOTAL ASSISTED UNITS 84
Senior
0 Family
Total Units = 84
SENIOR HOUSING PERCENTAGE 100%
T
he previous new family housing construction was in 2007 and fell off of the 10-year testing window several years ago. The only remaining project was senior housing first funded in 2011, so the City does not meet this test.
H
owever, the Novin Development project of 80 units listed in #10 above will bring the City into compliance with the Senior Housing test, as all units are homeless household/family units, including some units reserved for veterans. None will be senior restricted.
12. Ex
cess Surplus Test: This section provides the amount of excess surplus in the LMIHAF, if any, and the length of time that the Housing Successor has had excess surplus, and the Housing Successor’s plan for eliminating the excess surplus. Excess Surplus is defined in Section 34176.1(d) as an unencumbered amount in the account that exceeds the greater of one million dollars ($1,000,000) or the aggregate amount deposited into the account during the Housing Successor’s preceding four Fiscal Years, whichever is greater.
B5
The amount deposited in the preceding four years from loan payoffs (not tax increment deposits) as reported in #2, “Amount Deposited into LMIHAF” is as follows:
2024-25 - $ 580.730
2023-24 - $ 90,284
2022-23 - $ 302,750
2021-22 - $ 154,742
TOTAL: $ 983,316
T
he LMIHAF balance FY 2024-25 was $5,819,931 (see Section 3), and the total deposited into the LMIHAF in the preceding four years was $983,316. Therefore, excess surplus will be the amount over $1,000,000, which is $4,819,931.
T
he City has committed $1,500,000 to the aforementioned housing development project expected to enter into contract in FY 2026-27. It then plans to expend the remaining $3,319,931 in excess surplus over the following three years, utilizing it for Housing Rehabilitation and homeless programs. The remainder will be used for administration of the housing program, including monitoring of units, over subsequent years until the funds are fully expended.
13. In
ventory of Assisted Units: This section provides an inventory of the homeownership units assisted by the former redevelopment agency or the housing successor that are subject to covenants or restrictions or to adopted programs that protects the former redevelopment agency’s investment of moneys from the Low and Moderate Income Housing Fund pursuant to subdivision (f) of section 33334.3 This inventory shall include
a
) Number of Units – Following are the Housing Successor and former Antioch Development Agency (ADA) loans outstanding at the end of FY 2024-25:
Type of Loan/Program # Loans Total of Loans
Housing Rehabilitation 13 $851,206.69
First Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance 9 $620,000.00 Rental Housing Rehab (HACCC) 2 $32,745.45
Multifamily Rental Housing 5 $3,407,456.25
The total number of single-family units is 22, and multi-family units is 221 for a total of 243 units. b) N
umber of Units Lost - In the first report pursuant to this subdivision, the number of units lost to the portfolio after February 1, 2012, and the reason or reasons for those losses. For all subsequent reports, the number of units lost to the portfolio since the last fiscal year and the reason for those losses. – Records show that 8 single family loans totaling $345,026 have been lost to the portfolio since February 2012. The main reasons have been divorce and/or bankruptcy, resulting in foreclosures and short sales. No loans were lost last year .
c
) Installment payments and loan payoffs – Any funds returned to the housing successor as part of an adopted program that protects the former redevelopment agency’s investment of moneys from the Low and Moderate Income Housing Fund. During FY 2024-25, the Housing Successor received $0 as installments payment on a multi-family loans. The Housing Successor had 2 loans pa id
B6
in full during the fiscal year. The loan payoff amounts (principal and interest or shared appreciation) was $355,281 received by the City. (see #2) d) M
anagement of Units – Whether the housing successor has contracted with any outside entity for the management of the units and, if so, the identity of the entity. The Housing Successor performs t
hese services in-house, with assistance from the City’s CDBG/Housing Consultant Teri House.
* * *
I
f you have any questions about this report, please contact Teri House: [email protected].
B7
2025 GENERAL PLAN PROGRESS REPORT
1 2025 GENERAL PLAN ANNUAL REPORT
California Government Code Section 65400 mandates that cities and counties submit an annual progress report (APR) on the General Plan and progress on its implementation to City Council, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the Housing a nd Community Development Department (HCD) each year. This document fulfills that mandate and was reviewed by the City Council at its meeting of March 24, 2025.
The main purpose of the APR is to provide the City Council with an update of the City’s progress in implementing its General Plan vision. This annual assessment grants to City Council an opportunity to adjust or modify its policies or approach to implementation to ensure that the City meets its stated vision. A secondary purpose of the APR is to fulfill housing element statutory requirements regarding the City’s progress in meeting its share of regional housing needs and its efforts to remove governmental c onstraints to the development of housing in accordance with Government Code Section 65584.3(c) and 65584.5(b)(5). These have separate reporting requirements and forms, which have been submitted electronically by the City prior to April 1st of each year. To assist in the review of the General Plan Progress Report, this report presents the following information:
I. General Plan Background
II. Amendments to the General Plan considered by the City in 2025 III. Proposed General Plan Amendments
I. GENERAL PLAN BACKGROUND
T
he City of Antioch General Plan establishes the fundamental policy framework to guide decisions related to land use and development, public services and facilities, public safety, resource management, recreation, and the overall health and quality of life in the community. The General Plan presents a vision for the City's future, and embodies goals, policies, and strategies to turn that vision into a reality.
The City of Antioch adopted a comprehensive update to the General Plan on November 24, 2003 after an extensive community participation effort. State law requires that the Antioch General Plan include eight mandatory elements (Land Use, Circulation, Housing, Conservation, Open Space, Noise, Safety , and Environmental Justice ) but allows flexibility in how each local jurisdiction structures these elements. The City of Antioch General Plan contains these seven mandatory elements, in either their own chapter or within another chapter, as well as three “optional” elements (Public Services and Facilities, Growth Management, Economic Development) that, once adopted, have the same force and effect as policies related to the ATTACHMENT "C"
C1
2025 GENERAL PLAN PROGRESS REPORT
2 General Plan elements required by the State. The City of Antioch General Plan elements are as follows:
• Community Vision
• Growth Management
• Land Use
• Community Image and Design
• Economic Development
• Circulation
• Public Services and Facilities
• Housing
• Resource Management
• Environmental Hazards
• Environmental Justice
Each of these elements describes its purpose, goals , objectives and policies. Each of these elements functions as a guide to the type of community Antioch desires for its future and provides the means by which that desired future will be obtained. The General Plan expresses in the form of text, maps and illustrations, the organization of physical, environmental protection, economic, and social activities sought by the community in order to create and maintain a healthful, functional, and desirable place in which to live.
II. A
MENDMENTS TO THE GENERAL PLAN CONSIDERED BY THE CITY IN 2025 State law allows the General Plan to be amended four times annually. This allows the General Plan to remain a current document responsive to the community’s needs. Requests for amendments may be submitted by individuals or initiated by the City. Three amendments to the City of Antioch General Plan were considered in 2025 and are listed in Table 1.
Table 1
2025 Proposed Amendments to the General Plan
Amendment Request Action Applicant Description
Albers Ranch (GP-19-04) Approved by City
Council on January
28, 2025
Lucia Albers 1. General Plan amendment to
the land use element to
change a residential land use
designation to increase
density in a single-family
residential subdivision to
allow for the development o
f
u
p to 300 single-family
homes.
C2
2025 GENERAL PLAN PROGRESS REPORT
3 III. FUTURE PROPOSED GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENTS
I
n the next year or two, there are General Plan amendments that are proposed or will need to be prepared for consideration by City Council. These amendments include:
• Comprehensive General Plan Update: The City’s General Plan was adopted in 2003 and was proposed to have a lifespan of 25 years. The City kicked off a comprehensive update to the General Plan in October 2025 update process c with the goal of completing the new General Plan in two to three years.
• Leung Property (PD2025-0001): A proposed General Plan amendment to the land use element to Low and Medium Density residential to develop 434 residential units in the Sand Creek Focus Area.
C3
M
Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item M 2
per ERU in 2002/03, $23 in 2003/04, and $25 in 2004/05 - aligning revenues with rising program costs. The rate has remained at $25 per ERU per year since that time.
Annually, the City is required to establish the ERU rate for the forthcoming fiscal year by April 1 st. The resolution accompanying this report satisfies that requirement and maintains the maximum rate of $25 per ERU.
Looking ahead, the program continues to face increasing financial pressure. Current program costs exceed the revenues that can be generated by the maximum rate per ERU, with the resulting deficit being funded from available fund balance. Should costs continue to outpace revenues, the fund balance is projected to reach zero by the end of Fiscal Year 2027/28 - at which point additional funding will be necessary to sustain the NPDES program and related maintenance activities.
ATTACHMENTS
A. Resolution
ATTACHMENT "A"
RESOLUTION NO. 2026/***
RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF ANTIOCH
ESTABLISHING THE RA TE PER EQUIVALENT RUNOFF UNIT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026/27 AND REQUESTING THE CONTRA COSTA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL
AND WATER CONSERVATION DISTRICT TO ADOPT AND LEVY AN ANNUAL
PARCEL ASSESSMENT FOR DRAINAGE MAINTENANCE AND THE NATIONAL
POLLUTION DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM PROGRAM
WHEREAS,
under the Federal Clean Water Act, prescribed discharges of stormwater require a permit from the appropriate California Regional Water Quality Control Board under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System ("NPDES") program;
WHEREAS, the City of Antioch ("City") applied for, and received, an NPDES permit which requires the implementation of selected Best Management Practices to minimize or eliminate pollutants from entering stormwaters;
WHEREAS,
it is the intent of the City to utilize funds received from its Stormwater Utility Area ("SUA") for implementation of the NP DES program and drainage maintenance activities;
WHEREAS, at the request of the City, the Contra Costa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District ("District") has completed the process for formation of an SUA, including the adoption of the Stormwater Utility Assessment Drainage Ordinance No. 93-47; and
WHEREAS, the SUA and Program Group Costs Payment agreement between City and District requires the City, by April 1 st, to determine the rate to be assessed per Equivalent Runoff Unit for the forthcoming fiscal year.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City Council of the City of Antioch hereby determines that the rate to be set at twenty-five dollars ($25.00) per Equivalent Runoff Unit for Fiscal Year 2026/27.
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City Council hereby requests the Contra Costa
County Flood Control and Water Conservation District adopt and levy Stormwater Utility Assessments based on the rate of twenty-five dollars ($25.00) per Equivalent Runoff Unit for Fiscal Year 2026/27.
* * * * * * *
RESOLUTION NO. 2026/
March 24, 2026
I HEREBY CERTIFY that the foregoing resolution was passed and adopted by the City Council of the City of Antioch at a regular meeting thereof, held on the 24th day of March 2026, by the following vote:
AYES:
NOES:
ABSTAIN:
ABSENT:
MICHAEL J. MANDY
CITY CLERK OF THE CITY OF ANTIOCH
N Agenda Item #
STAFF REPORT TO THE CITY COUNCIL
DATE: Regular Meeting of March 24, 2026
TO: Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
SUBMITTED BY: Dawn Merchant, Finance Director
SUBJECT: Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee Fiscal Year 2024-25 Annual Report on Measure W (1% Sales Tax)
RECOMMENDED ACTION
It is recommended that the City Council receive and file the Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee Fiscal Year 2024-25 Annual Report on Measure W (1% Sales Tax).
FISCAL IMPACT
There is no fiscal impact as a result of receiving the report.
DISCUSSION
The Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee (“Committee”) is tasked with reviewing the receipt and expenditures of Measure W (1% Sales Tax) and reporting publicly to the City Council, either in writing or orally, by April 1st of each year. The report must include information about how the funds are being used to address the City Council’s stated priorities for the tax.
The Committee has prepared a written report to City Council (Attachment A) in accordance with this mandate and members are here to answer any questions if there are any.
ATTACHMENTS
A. Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee Fiscal Year 2024-25 Annual Report on Measure W (1% Sales Tax)
CITY OF ANTIOCH
SALES TAX CITIZENS’ OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE
Fiscal Year 2024–25 Annual Report to City Council
Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee – FY25 Annual Report | Page 1 March 24, 2026
Honorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
City of Antioch
200 H Street
Antioch, California 94531
Subject: Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee – Fiscal Year 2024–25 (FY25) Annual Report on Measure W (1% Sales Tax) Expenditures
Dear Mayor and Council Members:
Pursuant to the Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee’s mandate, I am pleased to submit the Committee’s annual report on the expenditure of Measure W (1% sales tax) revenues for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This report is presented for City Council consideration at a public meeting before April 1, 2026, in accordance with the Committee’s charter.
The Committee’s role is to review expenditures and report publicly on how Measure W funds are being used to address the City Council’s stated priorities: maintaining Antioch’s fiscal stability; funding police patrols and 911 emergency response; supporting youth violence prevention programs; ensuring water quality and safety; repairing streets; cleaning up parks and illegal dumping; restoring youth afterschool and summer programs; and providing other essential services. The Committee was provided copies of sales tax remittance advices from the State of California, as well as general ledger detail of expenditures provided the City’s Finance Director to conduct our review.
1. Measure W Revenue Overview
The City’s 1% sales tax (Measure W) became effective April 1, 2019. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, Measure W revenues totaled $19,994,055 across all funded departments. This reflects a slight decrease from the prior year’s $20,160,685 in FY24.
The City’s top 25 sales tax generators account for approximately 43% of all 1% sales tax revenue. These generators span multiple economic sectors, with General Retail comprising the largest share at approximately 38%, followed by Transportation (24%), Business to Business (13%), Food Products (12%), and Construction (9%).
CITY OF ANTIOCH
SALES TAX CITIZENS’ OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE
Fiscal Year 2024–25 Annual Report to City Council
Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee – FY25 Annual Report | Page 2
2. FY25 Measure W Expenditure Allocation
The following table summarizes how Measure W funds were allocated and expended across City departments and programs in FY25:
Department/Program Measure W
Allocation
Total Dept.
Expenditures
% Funded
by Measure
W
% of Total
Measure
W
Police $13,077,475 $53,413,941 24.5% 65.4%
Code Enforcement $1,714,021 $2,100,113 81.6% 8.6%
Recreation $3,078,998 $6,600,112 46.7% 15.4%
Youth Network Services $919,813 $919,813 100.0% 4.6%
Quality of Life – PSCR* $878,748 $878,748 100.0% 4.4%
Landscape Enhancements $325,000 $325,000 100.0% 1.6%
Total $19,994,055 — 100.0%
*Public Safety and Community Resources Department
3. Alignment with City Council Stated Priorities
Police Patrols and 911 Emergency Response
The largest share of Measure W funds—65.4%, or $13,077,475—was directed to the Antioch Police Department. These funds supported a portion of police personnel costs ($40,376,709 in total department personnel expenditures) and services and supplies ($11,436,353). Measure W revenue represents approximately 24.5% of the Police Department’s total FY25 expenditures of
CITY OF ANTIOCH
SALES TAX CITIZENS’ OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE
Fiscal Year 2024–25 Annual Report to City Council
Sales Tax Citizens’ Oversight Committee – FY25 Annual Report | Page 3 $53,413,941, sustaining patrol operations, 911 response capacity, and related public safety services.
Youth Violence Prevention and Community Safety
The Public Safety and Community Resources (PSCR) Department received $878,748 (100% Measure W funded) for Quality of Life programs. Within the department’s broader operation, the Violence Intervention and Prevention unit had a budget of $281,094 with $137,814 expended, during the fiscal year while the Housing and Homelessness unit budgeted $351,575 and expended $207,645. Community Engagement budgeted $27,697 with $27,629 expended.
These programs directly address community safety, violence intervention, and quality of life for Antioch residents.
Youth Afterschool and Summer Programs
A combined total of $3,998,811 in Measure W funds supported youth-focused programs. Youth Network Services received $919,813 (100% Measure W funded) for personnel ($477,538) and services and supplies ($442,275). Recreation received $3,078,998, representing 46.7% of the department’s total expenditures. Recreation’s programs include youth afterschool activities, summer programming, and community recreation services.
Code Enforcement and Community Cleanup
Code Enforcement received $1,714,021 in Measure W funds, constituting 81.6% of the division’s total expenditures. The division’s work addresses illegal dumping, nuisance abatement, and property maintenance standards—directly supporting the Council’s priorities of cleaning up parks and combating blight. Personnel costs totaled $1,785,197, with services and supplies at $314,916.
Landscape Enhancements
A total of $325,000 (100% Measure W funded) was transferred to the Lighting and Landscape Districts for maintenance and enhancements across the city’s public landscaped areas, contributing to park and neighborhood beautification.
4. Year-Over-Year Comparison
In FY24, the City received $20,160,685 in Measure W revenue and allocated funds at 60% Police, 20% Quality of Life, and 20% Youth. The FY25 total of approximately $19,994,055 represents a modest decrease of approximately $166,630 (0.8%) from the prior year. The Committee notes that the allocation framework continues to prioritize police and public safety while sustaining investments in quality of life and youth services.
5. Committee Observations
Agenda Item #
ST
AFF REPORT TO THE CITY COUNCIL
DATE
: Regular Meeting of March 24th, 2026
TO: H
onorable Mayor and Members of the City Council
SUBM
ITTED BY: Michael J. Mandy, City Clerk
SUBJ
ECT: Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging Appointment for One Vacancy Expiring September 30, 2027 (Antioch
Representative)
RECOMMENDED ACTION
It is recommended that the Mayor nominate and City Council adopt a resolution approving the appointment of [name of appointee] as a member to the Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging to represent the City of Antioch with a term expiring September 30, 2027.
FI
SCAL IMPACT
There is no fiscal impact as all positions are voluntary.
DIS
CUSSION
The Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging ( ACOA) is a dedicated group of county residents committed to improving the quality of life for older adults throughout Contra Costa County. They provide leadership, advocacy, and a vital channel of communication on aging issues. In partnership with the Area Agency on Aging, the Council helps coordinate countywide planning, collaboration, and resources to ensure older adults have access to the services and opportunities they need.
Their mission is to advocate for programs, legislation, and policies that support older adults, while also educating the community about the many resources offered by local non-profits and government agencies. They also serve in an advisory capacity to the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors on issues important to our aging population.
The Council’s committees focus on a wide range of priorities, including transportation, health, elder abuse prevention, housing, legislative advocacy, and technology. In addition, our members actively volunteer and engage in programs that benefit older adults at the city, county, and state levels.
Membership categories and procedures for application are as follows:
6 Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item #6 2
LOCAL CITY SEATS
Committees on aging/cities (19 seats): By city or local committee appointment. Download and complete an application; submit a copy to your local city clerk or committee on aging.
MEMBER AT LARGE SEATS
Members-at-Large (20 seats):
The Council shall provide a means for countywide planning, cooperation and coordination for individuals and groups interested in improving and developing services and opportunities for older residents of this county. The Council provides leadership and advocacy on behalf of older people and serves as a channel of communication and information on aging issues.
The Council advises each: the Area Agency on Aging on the development of its Area Plan, the Bureau of Aging and Adult Services, Employment and Human Services and the Board of Supervisors. The basis of the Agency on Aging Area Plan is on unmet needs and priorities experienced by older people, as determined by assessments and input from the senior network throughout the County
Planning Committee
Committee’s Role
The Committee has three primary roles:
• Work with the Area Agency on Aging (AAA) staff and the Advisory Council on Aging (ACOA) Committees to develop and provide an annual review and updates of the four-year Area Plan for Contra Costa County. • Participate in the Request for Proposals (RFP) review process. • Provides support to the AAA as requested.
Membership Committee
Committee’s Role
To recruit and select Contra Costa County residents to serve as members of the Advisory Council on Aging. Conduct ten monthly meetings per year to review membership requirements, attendance, and recruitment activities. Form a Nominating Committee to prepare a slate of 2026 officer candidates for consideration. Assign and maintain a list of mentors for new members.
Housing Committee
Committee’s Role
• Supports initiatives that address the shortage of adequate and affordable housing for older adults in Contra Costa County.
Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item #6 3
• Advocates for legislation that promotes the development and preservation of low- cost housing for older adults.
• Provides educational outreach to local officials, commissions on aging, and the community to raise awareness about housing issues affecting older adults.
Health & Elder Abuse Awareness Committee
Committee’s Role
Review current and health- related programs and systems (physical, mental, and long- term care) that affect older adults who are residents of Contra Costa County. Advocate for and educate about quality, suitability, accessibility of these programs and systems.
Legislative Workgroup
Committee’s Role
• Review legislation and legislative issues that are important to older adults and people with disabilities in Contra Costa County.
• Develop letters of support/opposition concerning proposed and potential legislation.
• Identify potential legislative ideas for consideration by the California Senior Legislature (CSL).
Transportation Committee (Senior Mobility Action Council) Committee’s Role
To address transportation barriers and gaps in service experienced by Contra Costa older adults through education, advocacy and the promotion of effective coordination of services and mobility management that enhances the autonomy and independence of older adults in Contra Costa County.
Technology Committee
Committee’s Role
To support the Advisory Council on Aging (ACOA) by identifying and recommending ways to improve access and use of technologies for both the Contra Costa County older adult community-at-large as well as ACOA members
The B
oard is currently meeting at 500 Ellinwood Way, Pleasant Hill in the Boardroom .
The meetings begin at 10:00 a.m., every third Wednesday of each month.
Cont
ra Costa County advertised to fill the vacancy. The Clerk’s Office received one application for this vacancy from Ms. Faith Gaither-Davis. Ms. Gaither-Davis’ application Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item #6 4
was the only application submitted for the Advisory Council on Aging and approved by the County Board and by Mayor Bernal.
Under Ant
ioch Municipal Code § 2 -5.201, the Mayor shall nominate candidates for membership on all boards and commissions. Nominees shall be appointed to each board and commission upon receiving approval of at least a majority vote of the City Council.
Mayor Bernal plans to nominate Ms. Faith Gaither-Davis for appointment to the Contra Costa County Council on Aging, representing the City of Antioch, for a term expiring September 30, 2027.
ATTACHME
NTS
A. Resolution
B. Application
C. Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Contra Costa County Library Commission
ATTACHMENT A
RESOLUTION NO. 2026/***
RESOLUT
ION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF ANTIOCH
APPOINTING MS. FAITH GAITHER-DAVIS TO
THE CONTRA COSTA COUNTY ADVISORY COUNCIL ON AGING
WITH A TERM ENDING SEPTEMBER 30, 2027
WHEREAS, t
here is currently (1) one vacancy on the Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging with a term ending on September 30, 2027; WHEREAS, Cont
ra Costa County announced the vacancy on the Contra Costa County website and solicited applications for the seat; WHEREAS, the C
ity received one application for the position;
WHEREAS, May
or Bernal and the Contra Costa County Board reviewed the application and the recommendation was made by Contra Costa County Board for the interested applicant;
WHEREAS,
Antioch Municipal Code Section 2- 5.201 states, “The Mayor shall nominate candidates for membership on all boards and commissions. Nominees shall be appointed to each board and commission upon receiving approval of at least a majority vote of the City Council.”; and
WHEREAS, Ma
yor Bernal has nominated Ms. Faith Gaither -Davis to the Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging.
NOW, T
HEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of Antioch hereby approves the Mayor’s nomination of Ms. Faith Gaither-Davis and appoints her to serve on the Contra Costa County Advisory Council on Aging, w ith a term ending September 30, 2027.
* * * * * * * *
I HEREBY CE
RTIFY that the foregoing resolution was passed and adopted by the City Council of the City of Antioch at a regular meeting thereof, held on the 24th day of March 2026, by the following vote:
AYES:
NOES:
ABSTAIN:
ABSENT:
__________________________________
MICHAEL J. MANDY, CITY CLERK OF THE
CITY OF ANTIOCH
Submit Date: Jan 12, 2025
First Name Middle
Initial
Last Name
Home Address uite or Apt
City State Postal Code
Primary Phone
Email Address
Employer Job Title
Contra Costa County Boards & Commissions
Application Form
Profile
District Locator Tool
Resident of Supervisorial District:
District 5
Length of Employment
Do you work in Contra Costa County?
Yes No
If Yes, in which District do you work?
How long have you lived or worked in Contra Costa County? 30 Are you a veteran of the U.S. Armed Forces?
Yes No
Board and Interest
Which Boards would you like to apply for?
Advisory Council on Aging: Submitted
Seat Name
Commissioner
Faith P Gaither-Davis
Antioch CA 94609
Retired
Faith P Gaither-Davis
ATTACHMENT B
Have you ever attended a meeting of the advisory board for which you are applying?
Yes No
If Yes, how many meetings have you attended?
Education
Select the option that applies to your high school education * High School Diploma
College/ University A
Name of College Attended
San Francisco State University
Degree Type / Course of Study / Major
Educator
Degree Awarded?
Yes No
College/ University B
Name of College Attended
Degree Type / Course of Study / Major
Degree Awarded?
Yes No
College/ University C
Name of College Attended
Degree Type / Course of Study / Major
Degree Awarded?
Yes No
Other Trainings & Occupational Licenses
Faith P Gaither-Davis
Upload a Resume
Other Training A
Certified medical assistant
Certificate Awarded for Training?
Yes No
Other Training B
Certified nursing assistant
Certificate Awarded for Training?
Yes No
Occupational Licenses Completed:
Comprehensive health educator
Qualifications and Volunteer Experience
Please explain why you would like to serve on this particular board, commitee, or commission.
After living with and serving, the aging population that are living in senior housing, and are homeless has made me recognize the additional needs of our aging seniors.
Describe your qualifications for this appointment. (NOTE: you may also include a copy of your resume with this application)
I assisted in helping create a resident council for our seniors at the Tabora GARDENS, where many things were unjust, and am the spokesperson to speak to upper management when their issues of communication or lack there of. I currently work with a nonprofit called SHARE community showering, and feeding the homeless. After many interactions I have come to realize I understand the needs and have the voice to provide additional information to our leaders of the city. Also living in a senior Resident has given me insite of additional needs and resources that are seniors need access to.
Would you like to be considered for appointment to other advisory bodies for which you may be qualified?
Yes No
Do you have any obligations that might affect your attendance at scheduled meetings?
Yes No
If Yes, please explain:
I volunteer and have council meetings.Tues & Thurs morn.
Faith P Gaither-Davis
Are you currently or have you ever been appointed to a Contra Costa County advisory board?
Yes No
If Yes, please list the Contra Costa County advisory board(s) on which you are currently serving:
If Yes, please also list the Contra Costa County advisory board(s) on which you have previously served:
List any volunteer or community experience, including any advisory boards on which you have served.
Conflict of Interest and Certification
Do you have a familial or financial relationship with a member of the Board of Supervisors? (Please refer to the relationships listed under the "Important Information" section below or Resolution No. 2021/234)
Yes No
If Yes, please identify the nature of the relationship:
Do you have any financial relationships with the County such as grants, contracts, or other economic relationships?
Yes No
If Yes, please identify the nature of the relationship:
Please Agree with the Following Statement
I CERTIFY that the statements made by me in this application are true, complete, and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief, and are made in good faith. I acknowledge and undersand that all information in this application is publicly accessible. I understand that misstatements and/or omissions of material fact may cause forfeiture of my rights to serve on a board, committee, or commission in Contra Costa County.
I Agree
Important Information
Faith P Gaither-Davis
1. This application and any attachments you provide to it is a public document and is subject to the California Public Records Act (CA Government Code §6250-6270).
2. All members of appointed bodies are required to take the advisory body training provided by Contra Costa County.
3. Members of certain boards, commissions, and committees may be required to: (1) file a Statement of Economic Interest Form also known as a Form 700, and (2) complete the State Ethics Training Course as required by AB 1234.
4. Meetings may be held in various locations and some locations may not be accessible by public transportation.
5. Meeting dates and times are subject to change and may occur up to two (2) days per month.
6. Some boards, committees, or commissions may assign members to subcommittees or work groups which may require an additional commitment of time.
7. As indicated in Board Resolution 2021/234, a person will not be eligible for appointment if he/she is related to a Board of Supervisors' member in any of the following relationships:
(1) Mother, father, son, and daughter;
(2) Brother, sister, grandmother, grandfather, grandson, and granddaughter; (3) Husband, wife, father-in-law, mother-in-law, son-in-law, daughter-in-law, stepson, and stepdaughter;
(4) Registered domestic partner, pursuant to California Family Code section 297; (5) The relatives, as defined in 1 and 2 above, for a registered domestic partner; (6) Any person with whom a Board Member shares a financial interest as defined in the Political Reform Act (Gov't Code §87103, Financial Interest), such as a business partner or business associate.
Faith P Gaither-Davis
7 Agenda Item #
STAFF REP
ORT TO THE CITY COUNCIL
DATE: Regular M
eeting of March 24, 2026
TO: Honorable May
or and Members of the City Council
SUBMITTE
D BY: David A. Storer, AICP, Interim Community & Economic Development Director
APPROVED BY: Bessie Marie Scott, City Manager
SUBJECT: Firs
t Quarter, 2026 - Economic Development Action Plan
(City Council 6-Month Priority Item)
RECOMMENDED ACTION
It is recommended that the City Council receive an update on the C ity’s Economic Development activities and progress, provide policy direction as appropriate, and offer feedback to staff on priorities and the timing of subsequent updates to the City Council.
FISCAL IM
PACT
There is no direct fiscal impact associated with receiving this informational update. Staff and the City’s economic development consultant will provide a presentation at the meeting that is part of the scope within the service contract for preparing a “Retail and Sales Tax Leakage Study” (Attachment C).
DISCUSSIO
N
In 2003, the City Council adopted a General Plan that contained an “Element” or chapter that provided, Goals, Policies and Objectives relating to Economic Development actions and strategies that is still applicable today as a guiding document, refer to Attachment A.
Within the past few months, t he City has embarked on a process to update the aforementioned General Plan which will include an update to its Economic Development Element. The City Council will be appointing members of the community to its General Plan Advisory Committee (GPAC) in the very near future and subsequently, staff will be convening a meeting of the GPAC (which the public is invited to attend) in late April or early May of this year. The General Plan update process could take 1-3 years to complete.
In 2019, the C
ity entered an agreement with an economic development consultancy firm, the Natelson Dale Group, to provide the City with services to create an economic development “Strategic Plan” (EDSP). The tasks were:
Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item #7 2
1 Data Gathering and Analysis;
2 Identif
ying Economic Drivers;
3 Employm
ent Center Screening and Recommendations; and
4 Creation
of an EDSP(s) and Economic Development Tools Including Opportunity Zone Review.
In the Fall
of 2022, the plan “Rein vest Antioch Economic Development Program Action Plan and Tool Kit” w as adopted by the City Council via Resolution No. 2022/166(Attachment B). It contained nine “Initiatives” to guide the City’s efforts.
Initiat
ive 1: Business Development (Job Creation) Pipeline
Initiat
ive 2: Real Estate Development Capacity / Site Readiness Initiat
ive 3: Workforce Opportunity Initiative
Initiat
ive 4: Entrepreneurial Development / Startup Assistance Initiat
ive 5: Direct Project Investment / Public-Private Partnerships Initiat
ive 6: Leveraging Housing Demand to Promote Economic Development Initiat
ive 7: Regional Interface/Advocacy
Initiat
ive 8: Funding/Resource Expansion
Initiat
ive 9: Coordination with City (and Other) Foundational Functions Since it
s adoption, City staff has worked to implement the initiatives listed above and will be available to report to the City Council on the status of completed work and current activities at a later date.
At tonight
’s meeting, staff will provide a brief discussion of these prior policy documents possibly returning in the s econd or third quarter of this year with a deeper analysis and report to the City Council. And most importantly, at th is meeting, the City Council will receive and review the Findings of a newly published retail and sales tax leakage study prepared for the City by Economic & Planning Partners (EPS) entitled Antioch Retail and Sales Tax Leakage Study, 2026, ( See Attachment C). The City Council may choose to provide comment and direction on the findings and recommendations contained within the report and have staff return in the second quarter of this year to receive an update on progress made.
Antioch City Council Report
March 24, 2026 Agenda Item #7 3
The purpose of this update is to inform the City Council of staff’s efforts to implement prior policy direction relating to economic development activities within the City , provide a current snapshot of Antioch’s retail and sales tax leakage, and to provide direction to staff on next steps within in the coming year.
ATTACHMENT
S
A. City of Antioch General Plan, 2003 – Economic Development Element (6.0) B. Natelson Dale, 2023 – Economic Development Strategic Plan (“Reinvest Antioch” Economic Development Action Plan and Tool Kit”.
C. Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) “Antioch Retail and Sales Tax Leakage Study, 2026”
D. Staff PowerPoint presentation
E. EPS PowerPoint presentation
City of Antioch General Plan 6.0 Economic Development
6.0 Economic Development
6.1 INTRODUCTION
California has one of the largest and most
diverse economies in the world. If California
was a nation, it would be one of the ten
largest. A healthy local economy, in part,
depends on the strength of the conditions of
the State and regional economy. This
includes State fiscal policies, employment and
labor, business regulations, infrastructure, and
other resources.
The City of Antioch is in the eastern portion of
Contra Costa County generally known as
"East County." The East County region
generally consists of the Cities of Antioch,
Brentwood, Oakley, and Pittsburg. This
region's economy depends on the regional
issues of transportation, land use, housing, the
environment, and the economy. A local
economy is dependent on the regional
economy in the same manner that a region is
dependent on the State's economy. It is
essential for all cities to cooperate in a
regional planning approach to assist in
maintaining a healthy regional economy.
Antioch is committed to maintaining a vibrant
and healthy local economy, ensuring the fiscal
and financial health of the City, and working
with the private sector to provide as close a
match between the range of local employment
generating uses and housing types as can be
achieved. The purpose of the Economic
Development Element is to promote economic
development and fiscal stability in Antioch by:
• Maximizing local economic opportunities
for businesses and individuals;
• Providing a positive business climate,
which includes these major components:
Affordable housing;
A wide range of housing options;
Available land;
Sufficient employment opportunities;
Streamlined permitting process; and
6-1
A sufficient population to support
business.
• Promoting location of institutions of higher
learning in the City;
• Working with adjacent cities on regional
transportation issues/solutions that will
assist business expansion and business
attraction;
• Encouraging employers to relocate to
Antioch, based on the abundance of
affordable housing opportunities for their
workers compared to other Bay Area
communities, available space for
business/industrial development, and a
high local quality of life;
• Encouraging businesses that create
permanent, higher wage jobs to locate
and/or expand in Antioch;
• Providing the necessary support to
existing and future businesses to assist
them to locate in Antioch and expand their
local operations;
• Assisting City residents to acquire skills so
that they may fill the jobs of the future;
• Expanding the inventory of sales tax
generating uses; and
• Ensuring that new development pays for
its own infrastructure costs.
The Economic Development Element is
closely related to the Growth Management,
Land Use, and Public Services and Facilities
elements. This Element provides guidance to
City decision-makers, developers, businesses,
and the public when considering specific
projects and other municipal decisions
affecting the community economic
development and fiscal health.
The Economic Development Element
recognizes that Antioch is part of a larger
regional economy. The Bay Area has a highly
competitive economic climate, providing
continuous opportunities and challenges for
the City of Antioch, not the least of which is
ATTACHMENT "A"
A1
City of Antioch General Plan
the ability to work with adjacent jurisdictions to
achieve a local balance between jobs and
housing in the face of regional projections,
transportation initiatives, and economic
development efforts working to the contrary.
6.1.1 General Economic Development
and Fiscal Condition Concepts
Economic conditions reflect the state of the
private sector economy in an area, typically
measured by jobs and incomes. Fiscal
conditions, in the General Plan context,
consist of public sector revenues and cost
(i.e., the City's net cost/revenue balance).
These two sets of conditions are distinct, but
related: conditions in the overall economy
(local, regional, national) affect local
government substantially through direct
impacts on jobs and incomes, while local fiscal
conditions influence the local economy by
affecting the mix of advantages and
disadvantages that firms consider in choosing
where to establish operations.
How General Economic Conditions Affect
Fiscal Conditions. A city's fiscal outlook
tends to rise and fall with economic conditions.
When economic conditions are favorable,
employment levels are robust and higher
individual and household incomes support
expanded discretionary spending. Retail sales
increase, property values typically rise, and all
of the activities that relate to local government
charges, fees, and taxes tend to increase.
Therefore, city revenues are likely to grow.
While new development may add to a city's
service delivery responsibilities, it will
contribute at the same time to increased local
revenues.
When economic conditions are adverse, the
opposite tends to occur. Lower employment
and income levels translate into reduced
consumer spending, resulting in decreased
local tax revenues from retail sales as well as
lower levels of activity of other kinds that are
typically subject to local fees, permits, and
other revenue sources. In a prolonged
recession, property values will decline to a
point at which the valuations of real property
will be adjusted downward.
6-2
6.0 Economic Development
Long-term economic stability strengthens the
predictability of municipal costs and revenues.
The effects of a marked change in economic
direction, whether expansion or contraction,
take time to show up in revenue increases or
reductions, but City fiscal planners who are
alert to the influences of the economic cycle
on the public sector can normally plan for
modest fluctuations.
How Local Fiscal Conditions Affect Local
Economic Conditions. Local communities
are affected by the health of the overall
economy. City fiscal conditions, in turn, can
affect city economic
vitality. A solid fiscal base
is among the influences that can prompt
employers to retain or establish operations
locally; a weak economic base, in contrast, will
discourage establishment of new economic
operations and may even prompt existing
employers to relocate elsewhere. City fiscal
management - tax and fee levels, availability
and quality of services, efficiency and
responsiveness of city staff - will also
influence the perception of a city as "a good
place to do business."
Often a business seeking a site for a new
operation will look critically at the mix of local
government costs and benefits associated
with sites in different cities, balancing costs
against the benefits that various cities offer. If
a city's operating revenues are insufficient,
some new development may be discouraged
from locating there. Businesses and non
residential developers often tend to avoid
communities with perceived fiscal problems.
Due to concerns with the community's ability
to provide an adequate level of public safety
and general maintenance services, and a
concern that property values will not
appreciate, and may even deteriorate over
time. A solid municipal fiscal situation and
provision of a high level of services, in
contrast, can assist in bringing prospective
employers into the community. A more
prosperous appearing community provides
businesses with a comfort level that their
investment in the community will appreciate
over time. Employment-generating uses also
tend to locate in areas that have desirable
locations for its management team to live.
A2
City of Antioch General Plan
If a city charges higher development fees than
its neighbors because the cost of providing
infrastructure is high, however, then
development may gravitate toward other,
lower-cost locations.
One of the key themes of the General Plan is
achieving a balance between jobs and
housing. The most accurate measure of
"balance" compares the local job count to the
number of employed residents. By defining
the local housing measure in terms of
employed residents, distortions that would
result from using housing unit or household
statistics are avoided. (The number of
housing units differs from the number of
households because not all housing units are
occupied; the number of households differs
from the number of employed local residents
for several reasons, including the fact that
many households have more than one
employed resident, and some have none.)
6.1.2 Jobs/Housing Balance
Concepts
In the ideal world, jobs/housing balance helps
a community achieve important goals. For
example, if employed residents can work
locally, commute times and distances will be
reduced; air quality will be improved;
transportation infrastructure needs will be
minimized; and each jurisdiction will have a
mix of housing types that accommodates the
workers in the entire range of income groups
created by the local jobs. In the real world,
achieving a numeric balance between jobs
and housing (measured by the number of
employed local residents) is an often cited but
rarely accomplished objective.
Although cities can require that companies
grant local hiring preferences they assist to
expand or relocate, cities cannot ultimately
dictate who works at local jobs. The existence
of a certain number of local jobs does not
guarantee that employed residents will choose
to work locally or that newly hired employees
at a company will choose to move to the city
they work in. For a mostly residential city like
Antioch, the best chance to place employed
residents in local jobs is to try to increase
employment, targeting the kinds of businesses
6-3
6.0 Economic Development
that employ people with skills found in the
local resident workforce. Even then, workers
who live elsewhere will already hold some of
the jobs that move into an area. In addition,
some workers may prefer not to live and work
in the same community.
Even if the number of housing units in a
community is sufficient to accommodate the
number of local residents who work, some
workers at local jobs who live elsewhere may
not be able to afford the prices (or rents) of
new (or even existing) housing in the
community. Most cities have a limited ability
to reduce the price of market-rate housing to
bring it in line with the earnings of local
workers.
For these and other reasons, a city in which
there is parity between jobs and housing may
still have substantial cross-commuting:
employed local residents working elsewhere
and local job-holders living elsewhere.
"Balance" is not by itself sufficient to reduce
commute-hour traffic, lessen distances
between work and home, or to provide local
housing at costs that local workers can afford.
It is, however, an important component in
achieving the goals of congestion relief,
improving air quality, and improving residents'
quality of life by reducing commute times.
A jobs/housing balance calculation can be a
useful tool in illuminating current home/work
travel patterns, but if the desire is to change
those patterns, then the focus needs to be on
the underlying characteristics of the job market
and the housing market that give rise to
imbalance. A General Plan can affect
jobs/housing balance constructively by
identifying objectives for residential,
employment, and transportation facilities and
working toward achieving specific outcomes,
such as adding a certain type of job or
increasing a certain type of housing. Success
in accomplishing such specific objectives may
improve the community's jobs/housing ratio
but, more important, it will result in progress
toward other community goals.
Antioch's Resident Labor Force. The
civilian labor force includes those people who
are employed (except in the armed forces),
A3
City of Antioch General Plan
and those people who are unemployed, but
considered to be actively looking for work.
People who have never held a job, people
who have stopped looking for work, and
people who have been unemployed for a long
period are considered not to be in the labor
force. In 1990, 48 percent of Antioch
households (30, 130 people) had some wage
or salary income. In 2000, that number was
41,600 or 46 percent. 1 This slight percentage
decrease is possibly due to an aging
population or an influx of retirees into the
community.
Local Employment Base. Antioch's
economy functions as a small part of the Bay
Area economy, comprising only 1.1 percent of
the Bay Area labor force. In 2000, the total
number of jobs in Antioch was estimated by
ABAG to be 18,930. Year 2000 land use
surveys conducted for the General Plan
indicate that there are 5.0 million square feet
of commercial uses, 1.0 million square feet of
office use, and 17.8 million square feet of
industrial use within the General Plan study
area. All of the office development and all but
about 40,000 square feet of the commercial
uses within the General Plan study area are
located within the Antioch city limits. By
comparison, approximately 52 percent of the
industrial development within the General Plan
study area is within unincorporated territory,
primarily along Wilbur Avenue and East 18th
Street.
Relationship between Antioch's Resident
Labor Force and Local Jobs. Although the
term "jobs/housing" balance is still often used,
a more precise relationship is between local
employment and the number of employed
residents. The primary reason is that some
households have no workers, while others
have multiple workers. Although 1.3 jobs per
household is often cited as representing a
balance between jobs and housing, depending
upon the demographics of a community (e.g.,
number of retirees and resident labor force in
non-retiree households), that figure can vary
widely. For the Antioch General Plan, jobs
and housing are "balanced" when there is an
1 1990 Census, 2000 Census.
6-4
6.0 Economic Development
equal number of employed residents and jobs
in the community (i.e., a ratio of employed
residents to jobs of 1.0). An analysis of
Antioch's existing jobs/housing ratio and
ABAG jobs/housing projections through 2020
is presented in Table 6.A.
As shown in Table 6-A, ABAG projects that
Antioch will continue to experience a
jobs/housing imbalance, with only marginal
improvement over time. Current jobs/housing
estimates show that Antioch and
adjacent
communities lag well behind Contra Costa
County as a whole, which in turn, lags behind
the inner Bay Area.
ABAG projections reflect current boundaries
for cities, and do not reflect the potential for
future annexations. The projections are also
largely based on existing trends. As a result,
ABAG projects that the Bay Area as a whole
will continue to experience job growth in
excess of housing growth, requiring even
greater numbers of workers to commute long
distances into the Bay Area from the Central
Valley and other locations. Within the Bay
Area, ABAG projects that job growth will
continue to concentrate in existing
employment centers, while residential growth
will continue to concentrate in existing
bedroom communities. Development as
projected by ABAG will result in increasingly
long commutes and the likelihood of
increasing traffic congestion. ABAG
projections of an increasing disparity between
local jobs and housing run counter to General
Plan policies adopted by the Cities of Antioch,
Brentwood, Oakley, and Pittsburg, each of
which seek to achieve a local jobs-housing
balance.
According to a local survey by the Contra
Costa Economic Partnership, 33 percent of
East County residents commute over 30 miles
to work, while 45 percent commute over 20
miles, and 68 percent commute over 10 miles.
This survey indicated 60 percent of Antioch's
residents commute out of the area to work
(see Table 6.8).
A4
City of Antioch General Plan 6.0 Economic Development
Table 6.A - ABAG Jobs/Housing Balance Projections
1990 2000 2010 2020 2025
Antioch City and Sphere of Influence
Pooulation 63,062 91,293 102,900 115,800 118,800
Total Jobs 13,980 17,060 21,400 27,300 29,850
Emoloyed Residents 30,130 43,811 51,700 59,800 62,500
(Total Jobs/ Emoloved Residents) 0.46 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.48 Contra Costa County
Pooulation 803,732 1,013,200 1,074,500 1,179,500 1,209,900 Total Jobs 314,550 361,110 419,140 470,480 495,460
Employed Residents 409,351 518,700 573,800 647,500 677,500 (Total Jobs/ Emoloved Residents) 0.77 0.70 0.73 0.73 0.73 Table 6.B - Place of Employment
Place of Emplovment
Antioch, Brentwood, Oakley
Total out of local area
West & Central Contra Costa Countv
PittsburQ/Bav Point
Tri-Valley Area (Livermore, Pleasanton, San Ramon)
San Francisco, San Mateo Countv
West Alameda County
Santa Clara County
Solano Countv
Sacramento & San JoaQuin Counties
Other out of local area
Currently, within the East Contra Costa
subregion, 1 31,878 workers, representing 48.8
percent of the total workforce in the area, have
a work destination westbound on the SR-4
freeway. A lack of adequate regional
transportation has constrained the ability of
Antioch and surrounding communities to
attract employment-generating uses as
businesses have expressed reluctance to
move east along the congested SR 4 freeway.
Other businesses have cited concerns with a
lack of market area, freeway access, or labor
base east of Antioch. As freeway
improvements are completed, residential
development continues in eastern Contra
Costa County, and existing Bay Area
employment centers become more expensive
The East Contra Costa Subregion consists of the
cities of Antioch, Oakley, Brentwood, and rural
eastern contra Costa County (Byron, Discovery
Bay, Bethel Island, Knightsen).
6-5
Percent
39.3 60.7
25.8 8.1
7.1 6.9
4.4 2.6
2.5 1.5
1.8 and congested, the constraints experienced by
Antioch in attracting new employment
generating uses will ease.The jobs/housing
ratio and commuting statistics cited above do
not fully indicate the extent of the existing
imbalance between local housing and
employment. Many local jobs are lower
paying retail and service industry positions,
rather than the more vertically integrated
manufacturing, office, and technology-related
jobs for which local residents commute long
distances.
6.1.3 Opportunities and Constraints
for Economic Development
Economic development studies conducted for
Future Urban Area 1 indicated five sources of
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City of Antioch General Plan
demand for industrial and office space in
Antioch and surrounding communities: 1
• Region Serving Demand. To at least
some degree, the eastern portion of
Contra Costa County will attract regional
seNing businesses seeking affordable,
vacant land and a skilled local labor force.
• Overflow Demand from Central Costa
County. Due to growth restrictions in
Walnut Creek, and an increasingly
expensive and shrinking land inventory in
the central portion of the County, some
businesses may have to move out of the
Central County area in order to maintain
profitability or to expand their businesses.
Antioch and surrounding communities
provide an opportunity for these
businesses to expand while remaining
close to their clients and suppliers.
• Internally Generated Demand. A large
number of existing local, seNice-oriented,
construction-oriented, and light industrial
firms will create demand for support
seNice and can be expected to expand
over time. This is anticipated to the most
common source of economic development
demand in the next 5 - 10 years.
• Workforce Driven Demand. A number of
firms can be expected to relocate from
central Costa County and other portions of
the Bay Area because a large portion of
their work force already lives in the area.
This source of demand is anticipated to be
the most important in attracting larger,
more regionally oriented employment.
• Executive Driven Demand. As household
growth continues, particularly high-end
executive housing, Antioch and adjacent
communities may benefit from executives
and business owners relocating their firms
closer to home.
6.1.4 Space Demand Projections
1 Economic and Planning Systems, "Final Report,
Future Urbanization Area #1 Business Park
Market Study," May 24, 2002.
6-6
6.0 Economic Development
Based on ABAG Projections 2002
employment projections, demand for various
types of employment-generating uses was
estimated for the Eastern Contra Costa
County market area.2 These projections are
illustrated in Table 6.C.
Based on ABAG projections, market studies
tend to conclude that cumulative demand for
office and industrial development will exceed
the supply of land available for employment
generating development through 2025. In
reviewing demand projections and this
conclusion, it is important to note that ABAG
projections assume that Antioch and Eastern
Contra Costa County will largely remain
residential suburbs, providing labor for distant
job centers in the central portion of the
County, the Livermore/Pleasanton area, and
other inner Bay Area locations. Antioch does
not share that vision of its future. As a
result, it is the objective of the Antioch
General Plan to expand local job
opportunities to a greater degree than is
reflected in ABAG projections.
Table 6.C - Building Space Demand,
Eastern Contra Costa County, 2000-2025
Building
Acres S. F.
Warehouse/Industrial 349 4,149,936
Office/R&D 625 7,420,634
Total 974 11,570,569
Source: Economic and Planning Systems, 2002.
6.1.5 Existing Economic Development
Incentives
Antioch has been active in providing local
incentives to encourage the development of
new employment-generating uses and
expansion of existing businesses within the
community. Programs range from streamlined
approval processes to the planning, financing,
2 Economic and Planning Systems, "Final Report,
Future Urbanization Area #1 Business Park
Market Study," May 24, 2002. The Eastern
Contra Costa County market area consists of the
cities of Pittsburg, Antioch, Oakley, and
Brentwood; the unincorporated communities of
Bay Point, discovery Bay, and Bethel Island; and
adjacent unincorporated areas.
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City of Antioch General Plan
and construction of infrastructure to the
preparation of Specific Plans and certified
environmental documents.
Participation in Regional Programs.
Antioch participates in several regional
economic development programs as
described below.
• Cooperative Marketing Program. Antioch
is one of five jurisdictions cooperating in
the provision of marketing and financial
incentives, and coordinating with
residential developers to encourage new
employment-generating uses in the
region.
• Economic Development Program. Antioch
is part of the coordinated East Contra
Costa County regional economic
development program intended to help
address the current imbalance of jobs and
housing, along with related resulting
transportation issues in the area.
• Transportation Improvements Program.
Antioch is participating in the East
County's $180 million regional traffic
impact fee program. This program
imposes a local fee on new residential
development to help pay for needed
transportation improvements in the region,
including the SR-4 Bypass, SR-4
widening, and extension of BART service.
• Transit Service. Bus transit services have
been expanded. Antioch participates on
the Tri-Delta Transit Board of Directors,
which is working to add new transit routes,
integrated into plans for new employment
areas.
• BART Extension. Antioch is working with
the Contra Costa Transportation Authority,
BART, and the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission to plan for the
extension of BART diesel or light rail (e
BART) service along existing rail lines.
• Jobs/Housing Opportunity Zones. Antioch
is working with the cities of Brentwood and
Oakley on two Jobs/Housing Opportunity
Zones. Creation of these zones will
establish a powerful set of new economic
development tools to intensify and
6-7
6.0 Economic Development
accelerate existing economic development
incentives. The joint proposal with the
City of Brentwood encompasses the East
Lone Tree Specific Plan and adjacent
lands in Brentwood. The joint proposal
with Oakley is located immediately north
of the SR-4 freeway, at the SR-160/East
1 ath Street interchange.
Existing Local Economic Development
Incentives. In addition to participation in
regional efforts, Antioch has specific citywide
incentive programs designed to attract
employers to the area.
• Planning. Antioch has completed
development of the East Lone Tree
Specific Plan, covering planned business,
commercial, and employment
development within the East Lone Tree
Focus Area. The City has also completed
the East 181h Street Specific Plan to
facilitate employment-generating
development along that corridor adjacent
to the SR-160 freeway. In addition, the
City provided substantial assistance to
area property owners in the Sand Creek
Focus Area leading to preparation of a
Specific Plan for that area, which
proposes substantial employment
generating development.
• Environmental Reviews. Environmental
documentation for the East Lone Tree
Specific Plan has been completed,
including final certification of an EIR. An
EIR has also been prepared for the East
1 ath Street Specific Plan.
These
environmental documentation efforts will
significantly streamline environmental
review for future employment-generating
uses within the areas covered by the
EIRs.
• Jobs Development Incentive Fund. The
City has implemented a Job Development
Incentive Fund to reward employers for
retaining or developing new employment
opportunities in the City by forgiving loans
at a rate of 25 percent over a four-year
period if the employer can meet
employment goals. Loans have ranged
from $40,000 to $150,000.
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City of Antioch General Plan
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Training Programs. Antioch works closely
with the California Employment Training
Panel to offer companies reimbursement
of pay for employees' training.
Recycling Market Development Zone.
The State of California has designated
Antioch as a Recycling Market
Development Zone. Manufacturing
companies whose processes involve the
use of recycled materials may qualify for
tax credits and other assistance from the
State.
Industrial Development bonds. Antioch
offers tax-exempt Industrial Development
bonds, which allow relocating and
expanding businesses to borrow money at
rates below the market, which are
normally only available to the state and
local governments.
Equipment Only Purchase Program. The
City has in place a tax-exempt lease
purchase program for manufacturing
process equipment. Funds are derived
from the sale of tax-exempt bonds. This
allows for reduced interest rates for
equipment purchases for businesses.
Financing Districts. The City of Antioch is
working with the City of Brentwood to
develop over $37 million in assessment
type financing districts for the construction
of infrastructure within the East Lone Tree
Focus area and adjacent land within
Brentwood.
Impact Fees and Gas Taxes. Antioch has
applied impact fees and gas taxes, along
with other funding mechanisms, to
develop funding for critical regional
transportation projects needed to support
growing businesses in the area.
Lease Subsidies. The City has entered
into agreements with developers of office
projects on East 1 ath Street and Lone Tree
Way to assist in their development. These
agreements include City subsidies of
rental rates. The City subsidies assisted
in enhancing the feasibility of financing
development of the office projects, while
increasing the economic attractiveness of
the projects for new and expanding
businesses.
6-8
6.2 6.0 Economic Development
GOALS AND STRATEGIES
OF THE ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ELEMENT
To provide for a sustained high quality of life, it
is the goal of the Economic Development
Element to accomplish the following:
• Create a sound local economy that
attracts investment, increases the local tax
base, and generates sufficient public
revenues to support desired municipal
services and facilities.
A strong economy not only provides local
workers with adequate income to afford a
high quality of life, but it also provides
local government with sufficient public
revenues to provide high levels of
municipal services and facilities. To
achieve such a local economy requires
implementation of an economic
development strategy, which includes:
preparing specialized business
marketing materials;
utilizing appropriate distribution
channels to reach the widest business
market;
targeting key industries; maintaining a
high web site with key economic and
site availability information;
improving relationships with existing
local employers; maintaining a
business friendly reputation;
providing appropriate incentives to
attract new businesses and facilitate
expansion of existing businesses;
maintaining partnerships with local
and regional business organizations;
expanding the local retail market to
maintain a fiscally strong City;
building adequate infrastructure to
maintain an inventory of ready-to-build
sites for new and expanding
businesses; and
A8
City of Antioch General Plan
providing a mix of housing in a quality
community environment to attract a
strong labor force.
• Promote a diverse range of jobs,
businesses, and industries, providing high
paying employment and entrepreneurial
opportunities, balanced with and well
suited to Antioch's population.
This goal reflects Antioch's commitment to
increase the quality of life of its residents.
Increasing the number and types of local
employment opportunities in relation to the
area's labor force is the first and most
important step toward economic self
reliance. Currently, East Contra Costa's
low jobs/housing ratio and the small
number of locally available professional
positions make it necessary for 60 percent
of the area's residents to commute long
distances - often more than 100 miles
round trip - to job centers in Pleasanton,
San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Oakland, San
Francisco, and the Silicon Valley. By
increasing local employment opportunities
and balance between the number and
types of local jobs and residents in the
labor force, Antioch residents will be better
able to work close to home, spending
more time with their families, and in leisure
pursuits, while helping to reduce the traffic
congestion and air pollution inherent in
those commutes.
• Maintain a balance of new development
with revitalization of existing retail
locations.
6.3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES
The most important contributions Antioch will
make to its future economic development are
to allocate land in appropriate locations for
employment-generating development;
facilitate the extension of infrastructure to
support the development of these lands,
provide positive marketing of Antioch and
incentives to potential developers and users of
employment-generating lands. Firms that are
expanding and/or relocating look not only for a
6-9
6.0 Economic Development
sufficient land supply, but also adequate
access and infrastructure in an attractive
setting. To be successful in its economic
development program, Antioch must establish
itself as a "good address." This can be
accomplished by offering attractive, affordable,
and useable building space, adequate in-place
infrastructure and "ready-to-build" sites, an
attractive business and residential
environment, and a desirable local living
environment.
6.3.1 Positive Business Climate and
Business Attraction Objective
Foster a climate in which Antioch businesses
can prosper.
6.3.2 Positive Business Climate
Policies
a. Maintain an Economic Development
Department to represent the City to
current and potential employers, and to
provide those employers with a point-of
contact for resolving business-related
issues.
b. Maintain an Economic Development
Commission to advise the City Council
regarding economic development,
redevelopment, and employment
generation issues and activities.
c. Periodically meet with and conduct
surveys of the local business community
to evaluate the effectiveness of City
services and economic development
activities.
d. Provide expedited permit review
processing for time-sensitive employment
and sales tax-generating development
proposals meeting City objectives.
e. Work with private sector entities to identify
and implement technologically advanced
infrastructure improvements to enable the
City to compete with other communities.
f. Promote Antioch as a good location in
which to do business through a
coordinated City effort. Promote Antioch
as a business location including an
educated workforce, competitive
A9
City of Antioch General Plan
development sites, and an active
business-friendly government.
g. Work with the private sector to maintain an
adequate supply of skilled workers and
the capital needed to attract and maintain
business in Antioch.
Encourage local and regional
educational institutions to establish
education and continuing education
programs to meet the existing and
foreseeable needs of local employers.
Network with local businesses and
real estate professionals to identify the
types of industries and occupations
most in demand and/or least available
in the local workforce. Work with the
Antioch Unified School District, Los
Medanos College, and California
State University Hayward to identify
local educational resources applicable
to the labor force needs of emerging
industries (e.g., telecommunications,
fiber optics, and biotechnology) in
relevant occupational specialties.
Encourage the entry of lower income
Antioch residents into job training
programs, enabling them to hold
meaningful, well paying jobs.
g. Support location of permanent satellite
facilities for the California State University
system or another public or private
university within the local area.
h. Streamline the development review
process so that it works effectively and
efficiently for the applicant and the public
through:
explicit statements of City
expectations,
early identification of issues,
consistent application of community
policy,
an emphasis on expedited problem
solving, and
ensuring that detailed regulations
facilitate and do not hinder the
achievement of community objectives.
6-10
6.0 Economic Development
i. Continue to enhance Antioch's image in
order to improve the local business
climate.
Publicize positive images of Antioch
through placement of articles in the
local and regional media and business
journals.
Promote Antioch as an excellent place
to do business by building on
Antioch's competitive advantages.
Provide excellent customer service to
businesses and developers of
employment-generating projects by
demonstrating that local government
is focused on solving problems and
providing certainty in the development
review process.
Recognize the economic development
benefits of, and place emphasis on
beautification of major arterials and
community entries, street cleaning
and consistent enforcement of City
regulations.
Undertake provision of urban design
improvements at key community
entries within employment-generating
lands, 1 including:
• 10th Street (Pittsburg-Antioch
Highway) at the western City limits
• Buchanan Road at the western
City limits
• SR-160 at the 18th Street
interchange.
j. Continue to facilitate the availability of
needed infrastructure for employment
generating uses while keeping
development impact fees to the minimum.
Establish assessment districts where
feasible to fund up-front installation of
needed public facilities.
1 Improvements at these locations are described in
the Community Image and Design Element,
Policy 5.3.3b.
A10
City of Antioch General Plan
6.3.3 Business Attraction and
Expansion Policies
a. Focus business attraction and expansion
efforts on employment and sales tax
generating uses; high performance, fast
growing firms, and community and
regional serving retail; and high
technology and other industries that will
enhance the local economy.
b. Attract and assist the relocation and local
expansion of medium sized firms (15 to
250 employees) in recognized growth
sectors, including high-tech, biotech,
research and development, and retail
trade and services.
c. Provide similar incentives for existing local
businesses wishing to expand as for new
businesses wishing to locate in Antioch.
d. Conduct outreach to City vendors to
attract new businesses to Antioch.
e. Maintain an up-to-date inventory of
available lands, including lands for sale or
lease) and supporting infrastructure (in
cooperation with the commercial and real
estate sector) for new business
development and business expansion for
sales tax and employment generators.
f. Continue and expand research activities
providing a better understanding of local
economic, labor market, and employment
characteristics to better anticipate
economic development opportunities and
provide information helpful for targeting
marketing efforts, and addressing major
economic development issues.
g. Continue to participate in economic
development partnerships with
neighboring communities, recognizing that
job creation, both within Antioch and in
Eastern Contra Costa County, will assist in
reducing peak hour traffic congestion
along the SR-4 freeway.
h. Work with local groups demonstrating
community support to acquire property
and attract important public and quasi
public institutions including college
campuses, hospitals and other medical
facilities, offices and yards for public
6-11
6.0 Economic Development
utilities and service agencies, post office,
and State and federal offices and facilities.
6.3.4 Commercial and Industrial Land
Availability Objective
Provide adequate land to accommodate
planned development, with office, business
park, industrial, and commercial areas
complementing residential and public
development in location, access, mix of uses,
attractiveness, and design quality.
6.3.5 Commercial and Industrial Land
Availability Policies
a. Maintain a mix of uses on the General
Plan land use map (Figure 4.1 ), providing
a balance of housing types, commercial
development, and employment-generating
uses.
b. Work toward redevelopment of existing
heavy industrial areas along Wilbur Road
and Fourth Street to increase their overall
employment density.
c. Promote the establishment of workplace
alternatives, including home occupations
and telecommuting.
Continue to permit home occupations
in all residential districts.
In defined residential mixed-use
districts, expand the definition of home
occupations, where appropriate, to
permit hiring of workers who are not
residents of the household.
Promote the provision of high-speed
telecommunications cabling in new
residential development.
Encourage businesses to provide
part-time as well as full-time
opportunities to accommodate families
looking for second income
opportunities.
d. Maintain an inventory of turnkey sites for
commercial and employment-generating
development, complete with appropriate
zoning, in-place infrastructure, and
environmental clearances.
A11
City of Antioch General Plan
Promote the preparation of Specific
Plans with associated environmental
documentation to facilitate the
development of specific local areas,
including, but not necessarily limited
to, the following:
• Business Park areas west of
Rivertown
• Rodgers Point area, including the
former City water treatment plan
• Chevron property (along with
annexation of the site)
• Eastern Waterfront Employment
Focus Area (expansion of the
East 18th Street Specific Plan)
• Hillcrest Station Area Focus Area
• "A" Street Interchange Focus Area
Implement assessment districts or
other financing mechanisms to
facilitate the development of
infrastructure for specific local areas,
including, but not necessarily limited
to, the following:
• Business Park areas west of
Rivertown
• Rodgers Point area, including the
former City water treatment plan
• Eastern Waterfront Employment
Focus Area (expansion of the
East 18th Street Specific Plan)
• Hillcrest Station Area Focus Area
e. Require the provision of fiber optic
networks and other advanced
telecommunications in new employment
generating developments.
f. Maintain space in business parks for
distribution and research uses. Attract a
wide range of industries, which serve local
and regional needs and contribute to the
community's economic vitality, and at the
same time protect the local environment
and quality of life.
g. Seek innovative ways to reduce the cost
of infrastructure provision for employment
generating and commercial development
(e.g., providing incentives for the provision
6-12
6.0 Economic Development
of infrastructure serving employment
generating and commercial development
areas as part of the residential
development allocation system).
6.4 CITY FISCAL HEAL TH
OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES
The City of Antioch's fiscal health is
determined by an important balance among
many factors including retail and commercial
growth, residential growth, available
commercial and residential sites, job creation,
affordable housing for all economic groups,
and transportation systems. This balance is
the ultimate goal in providing Antioch with the
necessary resources to sustain a high quality
of life for its residents.
Antioch's operating revenues and
expenditures determine its fiscal condition.
Revenue sources include taxes, fees,
assessments, rent on City-owned facilities,
interest on City investments, and transfers
from the state and federal governments.
Expenditures include the costs of government
operations, police protection, community
development, maintenance of capital facilities,
and park and recreation services. The land
use changes called for in the General Plan will
have fiscal consequences for Antioch. By
substantially increasing its commercial and
industrial base in relation to its residential
base over the next 25 years, Antioch's long
term fiscal health will be significantly
improved. Increases in business activity will
boost revenues collected by the City from
property taxes, sales and use taxes, and other
sources. Similarly, population expansion
resulting from residential development will add
to City revenues. At the same time, the City's
operating costs will rise as the City provides
services to existing and new residents and
businesses.
6.4.1 Fiscal Health Objective
Ensure the fiscal and financial health of the
City.
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City of Antioch General Plan
6.4.2 Fiscal Health Policies
a. Require new development to pay for its
infrastructure 1, its share of public and
community facilities, and the incremental
operating costs it imposes on the City.
New development shall construct
and/or pay for new on-site capital
improvements required by their
projects consistent with the
performance standards set forth in the
Growth Management Element.
New development shall ensure that all
new off-site capital improvements
required by their project are available
consistent with the performance
standards set forth in the Growth
Management Element.
New development shall provide for
public services consistent with the
performance standards set forth in the
Growth Management Element.
New development shall incorporate
such features as to ensure that it will
not increase the cost of public
services provided to existing
development.
b. Encourage the establishment and
expansion of local businesses and
development of commercial and other
properties producing retail sales taxes,
transient occupancy taxes, and high
assessed valuation by providing
assistance with financing, local
processing, and environmental permitting.
c. Encourage and assist the development of
hotels and other tourist-related uses at
sites within and near Rivertown along the
river.
d. Provide incentives for
Downtown/Rivertown district revitalization
with various programs such as the current
Restaurant Incentive Grant Program,
Participation in a land-based financing project in
the absence of direct financial contributions or
actual construction of facilities will be considered
as meeting this policy if the performance stan
dards set forth in the Growth Management
Element will be met.
6-13
6.0 Economic Development
fagade improvement programs, and other
creative programs that may be considered
from time to time.
e. Determine the need for a fiscal impact
analysis to be conducted as part of the
development review process to provide
input into assessment of the overall fiscal
impact of development within the City, and
to determine what costs to the City, if any,
should be mitigated.
f. As part of the development review of
office, business park, and industrial
development within Antioch, seek
opportunities for the designation of these
uses as "point of sale."
g. Pursue the continued use and expansion
of the Contra Costa fairgrounds as a major
regional-serving recreation, entertainment,
and cultural center.
h. Design redevelopment project areas to
include a sufficient number of high
property value uses so that the City can
take advantage of opportunities to attract
sales tax-generating uses that might not
create substantial property tax increments.
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City of Antioch General Plan 6.0 Economic Development
This Page Intentionally Left Blank
6-14
A14
“REINVEST ANTIOCH”
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
ACTION PLAN AND TOOL KIT
Prepared
for:
City of Antioch
Adopted
September 13, 2022
PREPARED BY:
In association with:
TRI Commercial Real Estate Services, Inc.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
YORBA LINDA, CA• www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597
ATTACHMENT "B"
B1
Contents
1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1
2. Overview of Proposed Initiatives ............................................................................................ 5
3. Action Plan Program Summaries ........................................................................................... 10
4. Potential Funding Sources/Financing Mechanisms .............................................................. 19
5. Potential Target Industries .................................................................................................... 27 Appendix A – East Bay Innovation Cluster (Build Back Better Funding Application) Appendix B – Northern Waterfront Initiative (Build Back Better Funding Application) Appendi
x C – Description of City of Santa Monica’s Development Agreement Practices Appendix D – City of Carson EIFD Infrastructure Financing Plan Appendix E – Program Overview for Community Economic Resil ience Fund (CERF) Appendix F – CALED Flyer on Financing Tools
VOLUME 2: INTERIM WORK PRODUCTS FROM STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS DOCUMENT 2.1 – ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (02-28-2020) DOCUMENT 2.2 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF INDUSTRY CLUSTER REPORT (04-22-2020) DOCUMENT 2.3 – DRAFT CITYWIDE FRAMEWORK FOR ANTIOCH EDSP DOCUMENT 2.4 – BRIEFING TO CITY COUNCIL, PRIORITIZING EMPLOYMENT CENTERS (09-22-2020) DOCUMENT 2.5 – STRATEGY REVIEW WITH PANDEMIC (MEMORANDUM DATED 03-16-2021) DOCUMENT 2.6 – OPPORTUNITY BRIEF FOR LONE TREE / SLATTEN RANCH EMPLOYMENT CENTER DOCUMENT 2.7 – OPPORTUNITY BRIEF FOR SOMERSVILLE EMPLOYMENT CENTER B2
“Reinvest Antioch” Action Plan and Tool Kit
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
1 1. Introduction
This
document outlines a “tool kit” of economic incentives, policies and other resources that the City of Antioch can potentially apply to achieve its primary economic development objectives of:
• Creating good-paying jobs
• Attracting real estate and business investment
• Increasing City fiscal revenue
• Encouraging a land use mix that supports an economically vibrant, high-amenity community • Prioritizing economic development investments that promote social equity and enhance economic opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons, businesses and neighborhoods1 Reco
gnizing that the ultimate effectiveness of the City’s investment in economic development “tools” will largely depend on the strength of the City’s overall economic development program, the Action Plan positions the tool kit within a larger set of strategic actions and policies. Figure 1 on the following page depicts the overall Action Plan as a pyramid with the following levels:
1. Job Creation (top of the pyramid, representing the ultimate goal of the Plan)
2. “Too
l Kit” of game-changing City investments and policies (second level of the pyramid, representing strategies that directly result in job creation)
3. Foun
dational policies and investments (third level of the pyramid, representing policy and investment decisions that will indirectly affect the City’s long-term effectiveness at economic development)
4. Fund
ing and organizational support (bottom level of the pyramid, reflecting the need for substantially expanded financial and organizational resources to effectively support the Action Plan initiatives over time)
Cons
istent with the expected focus on social equity, the overall Action Plan is designed to facilitate an economic development process and other City resource decisions that are equitable and inclusive of the full range of affected stakeholders, ensuring that all Antioch residents have meaningful opportunities to benefit from the economic investments and other community improvements that result from implementation of the Plan.
This Action Plan is the culmination of an economic development strategic planning process that began in early 2020. Given the onset of the COVOD-19 pandemic shortly after the process started, the strategic 1 As a starting point for tracking the unique needs and opportunities of disadvantaged communities, the City of Antioch has recently begin collecting information as part of its business licensing process that identifies a firm’s status as a Minority Business Enterprise (MBE), Women’s Business Enterprise (WBE), or Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise (DVBE).
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2 plannin
g effort “pivoted” to recognize a number of important socioeconomic issues and opportunities that emerged (or became more evident) during the pandemic. These issues included the following:
• A dramatic increase in “remote work” in response to stay-at-home orders, potentially paving the way for more permanent (i.e., post-pandemic) opportunities for remote workers and the communities where they live;
• An acceleration of the ongoing shift from brick-and-mortar retail to online shopping; • Exacerbation of California’s housing affordability crisis; • Changing patterns of land use demand in response to the above trends; • Heightened concerns over social equity issues, including homelessness, community safety, and the need to expand economic opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups and places; and
• Fiscal strains on municipalities (and the availability of federal relief funds to mitigate these impacts).
The e
volution of the strategic planning process is documented in a series of interim work products that are provided in a separate volume (Volume 2). Together, the Action Plan and Volume 2 constitute a comprehensive Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) for the City of Antioch.
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3 Figure 1
. Positioning of City of Antioch’s Economic Development “Tool Kit” within Larger Action Plan B5
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4 Framework for Prioritizing City Investments
The Action Plan places significant emphasis on expanding resources for direct and indirect City investment in Antioch’s economic future. Once resources are secured, they can be selectively applied to a range of Action Items (including specific “tools” such as financial incentives to developers, property owners and businesses) requiring financial resources in order to have a meaningful impact.
The intent of the fund development effort is to create a “war chest” of resources that would enable the City t
o be responsive to a range of possible funding requests (the nature of which cannot be realistically predicted in advance). Unless required by a particular funding source (e.g., a grantmaking agency), it is recommended that the City not pre-determine budget allocations to specific Action Plan tools. Rather, the overall “war chest” should be structured to allow the City a maximum level of flexibility in providing incentive packages that can be customized to respond to the needs of targeted projects as the market emerges.
Whereas it is important for the City to maintain flexibility in applying program resources in response to eme
rging needs and opportunities, the Action Plan provides a framework for prioritizing and allocating City investments, based on the following types of criteria:
• Market opportunities (i.e., number and types of projects requesting incentives) • Potential returns on investment (ROI) for alternative uses of City funds • Acceptable levels of risk exposure for the City
• Need to balance the potential catalytic impacts of larger projects with the opportunities to support smaller businesses and startups
• Appropriate requirements for equity and inclusion (i.e., requiring funding recipients to meet specified objectives)
• Ability to shift program priorities based on the degree of success achieved by early investments or pilot projects
The Cit
y’s incentive programs should be structured around a competitive proposal/application process whereby applicants would need to fully demonstrate the feasibility of proposed projects as well as the expect outcomes in terms of job creation and social equity. Overall, the incentive programs should convey a strong message that Antioch:
• Invites new ideas
• Funds innovation
• Incentivizes community-enhancing development
• Prioritizes projects that directly expand opportunities for the resident workforce • Is open to a range of incentive packages and deal structures, depending on the needs of (and potential community benefits from) individual projects
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5 2. Overview of Proposed Initiatives
The reco
mmended Action Plan is organized around nine major initiatives:
Initiat
ive 1: Business Development (Job Creation) Pipeline
Initiative 2: Real Estate Development Capacity / Site Readiness Initiative 3: Workforce Opportunity Initiative
Initiative 4: Entrepreneurial Development / Startup Assistance Initiative 5: Direct Project Investment / Public-Private Partnerships Initiative 6: Leveraging Housing Demand to Promote Economic Development Initiative 7: Regional Interface/Advocacy
Initiative 8: Funding/Resource Expansion
Initiative 9: Coordination with City (and Other) Foundational Functions Outline of Program Components
The potential program components for each initiative are outlined below and further detailed on the tables in Chapter 3. (Programs with a recommended social equity component are noted parenthetically.)
1. Business Development (Job Creation) Pipeline
a. Local business outreach focused on identifying actionable opportunities to support new job creation through growth of existing firms (social equity focus: targeted outreach to historically disadvantaged businesses, business owners and business districts) b. Near -term marketing focused on business attraction in Antioch’s existing core industries (e.g., Health Care, Retail, Cannabis)
c. Interface with regional industry cluster initiatives to cultivate business attraction opportunities, consistent with Antioch’s niche in regional supply chains d. Expanded (longer-term) marketing focused on attraction of target industry clusters not currently well represented in Antioch (social equity focus: targeted outreach to regional firms with strong track records in promoting social equity)
2. Real
Estate Development Capacity / Site Readiness
a. Flexible zoning to accommodate a range of employment-generating land uses b. Streamlined entitlement/permitting process for targeted land use and business types c. Specific Plan preparation (including program-level CEQA processes) for high-priority employment centers (social equity focus: prioritize specific plan preparation in Antioch’s most distressed business districts)
d. Strategic infrastructure investments and funding mechanisms (social equity focus:
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6 e. Land as
sembly (limited application in response to specific, high-ROI opportunities) f. Marketing of special status areas (e.g., Opportunity Zones, cannabis zones, TOD sites, etc.)
3. Workf
orce Opportunity Initiative
a. Commuter survey to collect strategic data on industries, occupations, remote-work status, and entrepreneurial propensities of out-commuting Antioch residents (social equity focus: as an optional/voluntary component of the survey, allow respondents to identify their race/ethnicity/socioeconomic status for purposes of identifying unique opportunities/needs of these communities)
b. Interface with regional workforce development organizations to maximize participation of Antioch residents in current training/retraining programs focused on East Bay technology sectors (social equity focus: identify opportunities to promote training opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons and neighborhoods) c. Regional advocacy to expand availability of regional workforce development programs (and satellite facilities) within Antioch, ultimately positioning Antioch as a “center of excellence” for training within key Bay Area growth sectors (social equity focus: identify opportunities to promote training opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons and neighborhoods)
d. Facilitation role to expand connection between targeted industry clusters and workforce development/education system (focusing training resources, internships, job postings, etc.) (social equity focus: identify options to promote training, internship and employment opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons and neighborhoods)
4. Entre
preneurial Development / Startup Assistance
a. Business incubation/acceleration program focused on packaging of startup assistance resources offered by other entities within region (social equity focus: identify opportunities for partnerships with regional organizations focused on startup assistance for historically disadvantaged persons and neighborhoods) b. Development of brick-and-mortar incubator facility (this ultimately should be positioned as part of a “center of excellence” for a specific targeted industry cluster) c. Venture capital fund development (social equity focus: evaluate options and potential funding sources for venture capital assistance specific to MBE/WBE/DVBE firms) d. Networking within East Bay industry cluster initiatives to cultivate “deal flow” of potential startups in Antioch
e. Initiative to facilitate startups by Antioch residents (social equity focus: evaluate options and potential funding sources for startup assistance specific to MBE/WBE/DVBE firms)
5. Dire
ct Project Investment / Public-Private Partnerships
a. Development impact fee waivers for targeted land uses and business types b. Land/building purchase for (e.g.) incubator facility B8
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7 c. Partn
erships with targeted businesses/tenants to retrofit existing buildings for employment-generating uses (social equity focus: prioritize partnerships that promote reinvestment in Antioch’s most distressed business districts) d. Partnership with institutional entity (e.g., university) to establish research center or tech park
6. Leve
raging Housing Demand to Promote Economic Development
a. Incentives to encourage development of mixed-use villages (e.g., density bonuses for residential projects opting to include commercial/industrial components) b. Development agreements to require “economic development investments” for housing proposed on land zoned for commercial/industrial development (social equity focus:
evaluate options for directing developer-generated funds to programs/investments that directly benefit Antioch’s most distressed neighborhoods)
7. Regi
onal Interface/Advocacy (ensure “fair share” participation/funding for Antioch) a. Industry cluster initiatives
b. Workforce development initiatives
c. Special initiatives (e.g., Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative, East Bay Innovation Cluster projects, etc.)
8. Funding/
Resource Expansion
a. Expand City’s capacity to pursue Federal/State funding resources on an ongoing basis (to support sustained investment in economic development incentives and other investments)
b. Leverage City’s partnership with the existing Antioch Community Foundation and investigate options for expanding the Foundation’s direct investment in Antioch economic development projects and related foundational issues (see Initiative 9 below) c. Establish Antioch Economic Development Corporation (nonprofit organization), allowing for expanded options/flexibility for fund development and project deal structuring d. Allocate a portion of residential development impact fees (or community benefit payments derived from residential development agreements) to investment in economic development (social equity focus: evaluate options for directing these funding resources to programs/investments that directly benefit Antioch’s most distressed neighborhoods)
e. Earmark a portion of cannabis-generated City revenue for reinvestment in economic development (social equity focus: evaluate options for directing these funding resources to programs/investments that directly benefit Antioch’s most distressed neighborhoods)
9. Coor
dination with City (and Other) Foundational Functions
a. Public safety
b. Placemaking (Downtown, waterfront, etc.) (social equity focus: prioritize placemaking initiatives and investments in Antioch’s most distressed business districts) B9
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8 c. K-12 ed
ucation system (social equity focus: identify options to promote educational opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons and neighborhoods) d. Housing solutions (addressing full spectrum of housing/homeless issues) The nin
e initiatives, outlined in detail in the next chapter, both stand alone as distinct categories and interact with one another in various ways. Selected “high level” interactions are summarized in the matrix on the following page.
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9 Ini
tiative Interaction Matrix
Initiatives
1. Business
Develop-
ment
Pipeline
2. Real Estate
Development
Capacity
3. Workforce
Opportunity
Initiative
4. Entrepren-
eurial
Development
5. Direct
Project
Investment
/PPP
6. Leveraging
Housing
Demand to
Promote ED
7. Regional
Interface/
Advocacy
8. Funding/
Resource
Expansion
9. Coord. with
City (and Other)
Foundational
Functions
1. Business Development (Job
Creation) Pipeline
Expands
options for
accom-
modating
businesses
Align efforts
Supports
entrepreneurs
& entr. help
expand
Options for
accomm. bus. Align efforts
Leverage
regional
resources,
image
Build
momentum
Options for
accom. bus.
2. Real Estate Development Capacity /
Site Readiness
Expands
market
options, both
ways
Expands
development
options
Expands
devel. options
Region as
market
Expands
devel. options
Expands devel.
options
3. Workforce Opportunity Initiative Complemen-
tary efforts
Coordinated
complemen-
tarity
Coordinate
efforts
Program
support
Expands options
for workers
4. Entrepreneurial Development /
Startup Assistance
Expands
opportunities
for entr.
Market
segment
Coordinate
efforts
Program
support
Placemaking
helps attract
5. Direct Project Investment / Public-
Private Partnerships`
Complemen-
tary efforts
Leverage
regional
assets
Key interface Complemen-tary
efforts
6. Leveraging Housing Demand to
Promote Economic Development
Regional
coord. issue Key interface Key interface
7. Regional Interface/Advocacy
Leverage
power of
region in
seeking $
Leverage power
of region for
programs
8. Funding/Resource Expansion Key interface
9. Coordination with City (and Other)
Foundational Functions
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10 3. Action Plan Program Summaries
The tabl
es below outline implementation parameters for each of the nine proposed initiatives.
INITIATIVE 1: Business Development (Job Creation) Pipeline Brief Description of Initiative
This
initiative embodies the core economic
development activities of business
retention/expansion (BRE) and business
attraction. Within the context of this Action Plan,
the City’s BRE and attraction functions are
expected to include both a near-term focus on
opportunities stemming from Antioch’s existing
market strengths and a longer-term “cultivation”
of opportunities not currently present in the city.
Collectively, these immediate and longer-term
activities are intended to creative a “pipeline” of
business attraction leads, to which the City will
respond with the expanded “tool kit” of
incentives and deal-structure options (as outlined
in the other initiatives below).
Wherea
s the specific target industries is expected
to evolve over time in response to emerging
market opportunities, the Action Plan (Chapter 4)
provides an initial working list of candidate
industry clusters.
Potential Program Components
A. Loc
al business outreach focused on
identifying actionable opportunities to
support new job creation through growth
of existing firms
B. Near-term marketing focused on
business attraction in Antioch’s existing
core industries (e.g., Health Care, Retail,
Cannabis)
C. Interface with regional industry cluster
initiatives to cultivate business attraction
opportunities, consistent with Antioch’s
niche in regional supply chains
D. Expanded (longer-term) marketing
focused on attraction of target industry
clusters not currently well represented in
Antioch
City’s Roles in Implementation This initiative will be a core, in-house function of the City’s Economic Development Department
Potential Partners Antioch Chamber of Commerce, East Bay Economic Development Alliance (“East Bay
EDA”), Contra Costa Economic Partnership (CCEP)
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Establish the framework of/for an effective BRE program; identify best practices and key
performance indicators (KPIs), including social
equity measures
Model Programs East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) – see Appendix A; Northern Waterfront Economic Development
Initiative – see Appendix B; Ventura County
Business Turnaround Assistance Program
(https://edcollaborative.com/wp-
content/uploads/2018/10/09-28-2018-Business-
Turn-Around-Assistance-Program.pdf)
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11 INITIATIVE 2: Real Estate Development Capacity / Site Readiness Brief Description of
Initiative
This in
itiative focuses on
positioning Antioch to
attract the commercial and
industrial development
investment needed for
employment creation. The
recommended program
components include varying
degrees of City
“intervention” to address
the availability and cost
competitiveness of
commercial/industrial
development sites.
Potential Program Components
A. Fle
xible zoning to accommodate a range of employment-
generating land uses
B. Streamlined entitlement/permitting process for targeted land use and business types
C. Specific Plan preparation (including program-level CEQA processes) for high-priority employment centers
D. Strategic infrastructure investments and funding mechanisms (potentially including formation of an Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District)
E. Land assembly (limited application in response to specific, high-ROI opportunities)
F. Marketing of special status areas (e.g., Opportunity Zones, cannabis zones, TOD sites, etc.)
G. Social equity measures to accommodate and promote
reinvestment in Antioch’s most distressed neighborhoods and business districts
City’s Roles in
Implementation
This initiative will be coordinated by the City’s Economic Development Department in collaboration with the Community Development and Public Works Departments
Potential Partners East Bay EDA, GoBiz, Commercial Brokers Priority Action Steps (Years
1-2)
Place emphasis on existing employment centers; create industry specific marketing materials
Model Programs Greater Portland Inc. (GPI) Development Roadmaps (community site readiness tool kit) – see:
https://greaterportlandinc.com/assets/documents/Communities/Task- 4-development-roadmaps-final-report-20200728.pdf
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12 INITIATIVE 3: Workforce Opportunity Initiative
Brief Description of Initiative
This initiative is intended to enhance the
employment opportunities of Antioch’s resident
workforce while simultaneously leveraging
Antioch’s substantial population of out-
commuters as a selling point for business
attraction and entrepreneurial development.
Designing the Workforce Opportunity Initiative
around one or more targeted industry clusters
would help to position Antioch as a “center of
excellence” for those clusters.
Potential Program Components
A. Commuter survey to collect strategic
data on industries, occupations, remote-
work status, and entrepreneurial
propensities of out-commuting Antioch
residents
B. Interface with regional workforce
development organizations to maximize
participation of Antioch residents in
current training/retraining programs
focused on East Bay technology sectors
C. Regional advocacy to expand availability
of regional workforce development
programs (and satellite facilities) within
Antioch, ultimately positioning Antioch as
a “center of excellence” for training
within key Bay Area growth sectors
D. Facilitation role to expand connection
between targeted industry clusters and
workforce development/education
system (focusing training resources,
internships, job postings, etc.)
E. Social equity measures to prioritize
workforce development opportunities for
historically disadvantaged persons,
businesses and neighborhoods
City’s Roles in Implementation The City will primarily serve in coordination and advocacy roles. The core services would be
provided by non-City entities; the City would
partner with these entities to ensure that: 1)
Antioch residents and employers take full
advantage of available programs, and 2) Antioch
receives a fair share of regional resources
invested in new programs and facilities.
Potential Partners Contra Costa Workforce Development Board, City of Antioch's Youth/Young Adult apprenticeship
program
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Build the foundation of the program, focusing on direct connections to the existing programs of
regional partners
Model Programs East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) – see Appendix A
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13 INITIATIVE 4: Entrepreneurial Development / Startup Assistance Brief Description of Initiative
This in
itiative recognizes the reality that Antioch
will likely need to proactively cultivate business
development opportunities in order to
meaningful expand the presence of targeted
industry clusters not currently well established in
the City. In this regard, direct City investment in a
business incubator would provide an early, highly
visible anchor for a “center of excellence”
associated with a targeted industry cluster.
City in
vestment in an incubator facility could also
provide immediate opportunities to put into
productive use existing vacant or underutilized
commercial buildings, thereby minimizing the
potential for blight and reducing the likelihood of
properties being rezoned for other uses such as
housing.
Potential Program Components
A. Busin
ess incubation/acceleration
program focused on packaging of startup
assistance resources offered by other
entities within region
B. Development of brick-and-mortar
incubator facility (this ultimately should
be positioned as part of a “center of
excellence” for a specific targeted
industry cluster)
C. Venture capital fund development
D. Networking within East Bay industry
cluster initiatives to cultivate “deal flow”
of potential startups in Antioch
E. Initiative to facilitate startups by Antioch
residents
F. Social equity measures to prioritize
entrepreneurial development
opportunities for MBE/WBE/DVBE firms
City’s Roles in Implementation This program would be funded through the City but run by a third party (i.e., the City would
potentially partner with a private developer
and/or operator for the development of
incubator facilities and programs).
Potential Partners East bay EDA, GoBiz, CALED, SBDC
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Issue RFQ to develop local business incubation program focused on Antioch's key/target
industries
Model Programs East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) – see Appendix A
Vent
ura County EDC Grow program
(https://edcollaborative.com/edc-grow/) –
partnership with SBDC
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14 INITIATIVE 5: Direct Project Investment / Public-Private Partnerships Brief Description of Initiative
This i
nitiative is intended to complement and
augment the real estate capacity and site-
readiness strategies outlined under Initiative 2
above. Whereas Initiative 2 primarily focuses on
the City’s traditional roles in zoning land and
entitling development, Initiative 5 represents
more intensive roles in which the City would
provide direct financial support to key
development projects and businesses.
The City’
s financial participation in development
could be structured as grants, low-interest loans,
or equity stakes, depending on the level of City
resources available and the needs of specific
targeted projects.
In so
me instances, there may be operational
advantages to carrying out the City’s
development investments through a third-party
development entity (such as the local Economic
Development Corporation envisioned as part of
Initiative 8).
Potential Program Components
A. Dev
elopment impact fee waivers for
targeted land uses and business types
B. Land/building purchase for (e.g.)
incubator facility
C. Partnerships with targeted
businesses/tenants to retrofit existing
buildings for employment-generating
uses
D. Partnership with institutional entity (e.g.,
university) to establish research center or
tech park
City’s Roles in Implementation The City’s Economic Development Department will be responsible for soliciting potential “deals”
for City financial participation and recommending
selected projects for funding approval by the City
Council (reflecting investment criteria adopted by
the City). Actual development activities will be
carried out by private partners.
Potential Partners Chamber, CCEP, East Bay EDA, and East Bay Leadership Council (EBLC)
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Establish an EDO/C (corporation) Develop “site readiness” incentive packages for
targeted development sites (see Greater Portland
model referenced under Initiative 2); prioritized
incentives to promote reinvestment in Antioch’s
most distressed business districts
Model Programs San Pablo EDC and others
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15 INITIATIVE 6: Leveraging Housing Demand to Promote Economic Development Brief Description of Initiative
Curr
ent market trends suggest that there will be
increasing pressure for the City to rezone
commercial and industrial land for residential
development. While the City recognizes the
substantial need for additional housing in the
region, the potential loss of future non-
residential development could significantly
undermine the City’s longstanding efforts to
improve its jobs/housing balance.
This in
itiative seeks to achieve a balance between
residential and employment land uses whereby
the enhanced land value (to a property owner)
associated with rezoning (or up-zoning) land can
be leveraged as a tool to encourage or require
concurrent investment in non-residential
development.
Potential Program Components
A. Inc
entives to encourage development of
mixed-use villages (e.g., density bonuses
for residential projects opting to include
commercial/industrial components)
B. Development agreements to require
“economic development investments”
for housing proposed on land zoned for
commercial/industrial development
City’s Roles in Implementation The City’s Economic Development Department will take the lead in crafting policies for the City
Council’s approval; implementation of the
policies and negotiation of development
agreements would be carried out by the
Economic Development and Community
Development Departments.
Potential Partners ABAG, EBLC, CCEP
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Identify key characteristics of qualified properties with maximum potential
Evaluat
e options for directing developer-
generated funds to programs/investments that
directly benefit Antioch’s most distressed
neighborhoods)
Model Programs City of Santa Monica development agreement / “value capture” practices (see Appendix C)
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16 INITIATIVE 7: Regional Interface/Advocacy (ensure “fair share” participation/funding for Antioch) Brief Description of Initiative
A nu
mber of existing and planned economic
development initiatives in the East Bay region can
potentially benefit Antioch. These programs can
be viewed as networking opportunities through
which Antioch can augment its “pipeline” of
business development and investment leads.
Whereas
regional initiatives offer potential
collaborative benefits, they also realistically
involve some degree of competition among the
individual jurisdictions within the region (some of
which may have inherent advantages over
Antioch by virtue of their size and location).
Antioch’s ability to effectively capture “fair
shares” of the resources and development
opportunities generated by these regional
initiatives will require active/ongoing
participation by City representatives.
Anti
och’s direct participation in regional
initiatives can also help to ensure that strategic
focus of the initiatives (e.g., selection of target
industries) are aligned with Antioch’s economic
development potentials.
Potential Program Components
A. Ind
ustry cluster initiatives
B. Workforce development initiatives
C. Special initiatives (e.g., Northern
Waterfront Economic Development
Initiative, East Bay Innovation Cluster
projects, etc.)
City’s Roles in Implementation The City will primarily serve in coordination and advocacy roles; the Economic Development
Department will be the main point of contact
with these regional initiatives.
Potential Partners CALED, GoBiz, EBLC, CCEP, Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Convene “working group meeting” of key partners and establish priorities for mutual
action/advocacy
Model Programs The Central Coast Economic Recovery Initiative (https://cceri.org/)
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17 INITIATIVE 8: Funding/Resource Expansion
Brief Description of Initiative
This initiative is arguably the cornerstone of the
overall Action Plan. The most significant “tools”
for job creation in Antioch (as outlined in
Initiatives 4 and 5) will require substantial
financial investment in order to have a
meaningful impact.
Thro
ugh Initiative 8, the City will systematically
pursue external funding to support sustained
investment in economic development incentives
and other investments.
Initi
ative8 also seeks to augment the City’s
organizational structure to include two non-profit
entities that can expand the available range of
funding sources and also provide more flexibility
in terms of the types of deal structures possible
for economic development investment.
Potential Program Components
A. Expand City’s capacity to pursue
Federal/State funding resources on an
ongoing basis (to support sustained
investment in economic development
incentives and other investments)
B. Leverage City’s partnership with the
existing Antioch Community Foundation
and investigate options for expanding the
Foundation’s direct investment in
Antioch economic development projects
and related foundational issues (see
Initiative 9 below)
C. Establish Antioch Economic Development
Corporation (nonprofit organization),
allowing for expanded options/flexibility
for fund development and project deal
structuring
D. Allocate a portion of residential
development impact fees (or community
benefit payments derived from
residential development agreements) to
investment in economic development
E. Earmark a portion of cannabis-generated
City revenue for reinvestment in
economic development
F. Evaluate options for new economic
development funds to programs and
investments that directly benefit
Antioch’s most distressed
neighborhoods)
City’s Roles in Implementation The City’s Economic Development Department will lead expanded efforts to pursue relevant
Federal and State Funding; the Economic
Development Department will also lead initial
investigations of the desirability and feasibility of
launching the Economic Development
Corporation (which would ultimately be a
separate, non-City entity).
Potential Partners Community Foundation, GoBiz, CALED, EBLC Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Implement ED Financial Toolkit including establishing framework for EIFDs
Model Programs (See additional details in Chapter 4 and the report appendices).
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18 INITIATIVE 9: Coordination with City (and Other) Foundational Functions Brief Description of Initiative
This initiative addresses “foundational” topics
that are beyond the scope of traditional/core
economic development programming, but which
are nevertheless crucial to the City’s potential
success in attracting development and business
investment. These topics include:
• The perc
eption that Antioch is a high-
crime community
• The need to mitigate existing or potential
blight in older areas of Antioch
• Concerns about the quality of the K-12
education system (which affect both the
workforce development pipeline and
Antioch’s attractiveness as a place to live)
• The image and practical challenges
associated with a large homeless
population
• The need to create a full spectrum of
housing choices that supports the City’s
larger economic and workforce
development objectives
Potential Program Components
The City’s Economic Development Staff will
systemically coordinate with other City
departments (and external entities) to support
resource augmentation (and effective public
messaging about progress) on the following
fronts:
A. Pub
lic safety
B. Placemaking (Downtown, waterfront,
etc.)
C. K-12 education system
D. Housing solutions (addressing full
spectrum of housing/homeless issues)
Cons
istent with the “center of excellence” theme
emphasized in other parts of the Action Plan, the
Economic Development Department should seek
to position these foundational programs as
national models for addressing pervasive urban
challenges.
City’s Roles in Implementation The City’s Economic Development Department will primarily serve in coordination and advocacy
roles; the Department’s role in expanding Federal
and State Resources could potentially be applied
to these foundational issues
Potential Partners Housing advocates, marketing team, PIO, AUSD, Chamber
Priority Action Steps (Years 1-2) Convene “working group meeting” of key partners/stakeholders and establish priorities for
foundational programs and investments
undergirding Antioch’s economic development
potentials; within this context, identify options
for prioritizing placemaking investments in
Antioch’s most distressed business districts and
promoting educational opportunities for
historically disadvantaged persons and
neighborhoods
Model Programs The Central Coast Economic Recovery Initiative (https://cceri.org/)
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19 4. Potential Funding Sources/Financing Mechanisms
This
chapter outlines funding sources and financing mechanisms that the City of Antioch could potentially pursue in order to establish the resource levels realistically necessary to incentivize private commercial and industrial investment in targeted employment centers. In particular, the following programs have been evaluated by the consultant team:
Potential Seed Money for “Antioch Economic Development War Chest” Concept • American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds (Federal)
• Community Economic Resilience Fund (CERF) (State of California) • California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (IBank) • Developer fees and/or public benefits payments (to applied to residential development to funded associated needs for employment generation)
Tax Increment Fin
ancing Mechanisms
• Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs)
• Community Revitalization Investment Authorities (CRIAs) Table 1
on the next page provides an overview of the potential applicability of these programs to Antioch’s economic development efforts). The subsequent pages provide additional details for the programs deemed to be the highest priority action items for the City: IBank and EIFD’s.
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20 TABLE 1. OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES AND FINANCING MECHANISMS Program/Funding Source Eligible Uses Strategic Advantages to Antioch Next Steps for City Potential funding sources to underwrite “Antioch Economic Development War Chest” concept American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)
funds (Federal)
Existing (time-limited)
discretionary funds that can
potentially be used for a wide
variety of economic development
investments
Can potentially directly
incentivize targeted private
investment in the near-term
Seek input from community and
City Council on priority uses for
these funds; commit a portion to
“war chest”
Community Economic Resilience
Fund (CERF) (State of California)
Current regional funding
opportunity from the State of
California; planning grants of
$5million per region; statewide
implementation funding of $500
million
Opportunity to align City with
regional funding consortium
(applications are not accepted
from individual cities – the
relevant region for application
purposes is the overall Bay
Area).
Determine status of regional
application(s) for CERF funds and
identify opportunities for Antioch
to participate in funded programs
California Infrastructure and
Economic Development Bank
(IBank)
Generally applies to bondable
investments in infrastructure
supporting economic
development and sustainability;
some programs can be used to
incentivize private manufacturing
investment
City can position itself as a
“concierge” connecting local
projects and firms to prospective
funding
Allocate City staff time to further
research most relevant IBank
programs and position City to
submit funding applications as
Action Plan priorities are
established
Developer fees and/or public
benefits payments (see City of
Santa Monica example in
Appendix C)
Potential source of discretionary
funds to support economic
development
programs/incentives
Positions housing entitlements
(especially on land zoned for non-
residential use) as a “value
enhancement” benefit provided
to landowners; program concept
is to capture community benefit
payments (to be earmarked for
economic development) based
Investigate potential program
guidelines (with input from City
Council and development
community)
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21 Program/Funding Source Eligible Uses Strategic Advantages to Antioch Next Steps for City on the recognition of the nexus
between housing development
and the need for local
employment opportunities
Current (post-redevelopment) tax-increment financing tools (potentially useful in funding infrastructure improvements as a catalyst/incentive for private investment in targeted employment centers) Enhanced Infrastructure
Financing Districts (EIFDs)
Infrastructure financing; land
acquisition (financing but not
ownership); environmental
remediation; affordable housing
Limited use of eminent domain;
potential tax increment can apply
to more than property taxes; can
issue bonds without voter
authority
Need to develop tools to
encourage other taxing agencies
(especially Contra Costa County)
to participate; initiate feasibility/
planning studies to establish EIFD
(potentially use ARPA funds to
underwrite this effort)
Community Revitalization
Investment Authorities (CRIAs)
Infrastructure financing; land
acquisition (broader powers than
EIFD); environmental
remediation; affordable housing
Broader use (compared to EIFD)
of eminent domain); can issue
bonds without voter authority
N/A – EIFD is a better option for
Antioch
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22 IBAN
K PROGRAMS
The California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (IBank) was created in 1994 to finance public infrastructure and private development that promote a healthy climate for jobs, contribute to a strong economy and improve the quality of life in California communities. IBank has broad authority to issue tax-exempt and taxable revenue bonds, provide financing to public agencies, provide credit enhancements, acquire or lease facilities, and leverage State and Federal funds. IBank’s current programs include the Infrastructure State Revolving Fund (ISRF) Loan Program, California Lending for Energy and Environmental Needs (CLEEN) Center, the Climate Catalyst Revolving Loan fund [currently focused on forest thinning], Small Business Finance Center, and the Bond Financing Program.
Table 2 on the next page highlights the IBank programs that are potentially most relevant to Antioch.
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23 TABLE 2. SELECTED CALIFORNIA INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK (IBANK) PROGRAMS AND POTENTIAL LINK TO ANTIOCH INITIATIVES Initiatives
IBank program Examples of relevant program eligibility # Description All programs Apply generally 8 Funding sources
Infrastructure State Revolving
Fund
Drainage, water supply and flood control 9.b; 2.d Placemaking; real estate development strategic infrastructure
Port facilities 9.b; 7.c Placemaking; regional special
initiatives
Educational, cultural and social facilities 4.b; 5;
2.d
Develop incubator; direct project
investment; real estate development
strategic infrastructure
Power and communications facilities (energy efficiency) 4.b; 5 Develop incubator; direct project investment
Industrial Development Bonds
(tax-exempt)
Funds to support development of manufacturing and
processing facilities for private companies 1 Business development 501 (c) (3) Bonds (tax-exempt) Funding for nonprofit public benefit corporations 9.b; 4.b Placemaking; develop incubator Public Agency Revenue Bonds Projects that enhance infrastructure, or the economic, social or cultural quality of life 9.b; 2.d Placemaking; real estate development strategic infrastructure
Exempt Facility Bonds (tax-
exempt)
Airports, docs and wharves (government owned and
privately used properties) 9.b Placemaking
Small Business Programs: Loan
Guarantees
For assisting small businesses that experience capital access barriers 4 Entrepreneurial development
Climate catalyst program: CLEEN
Program
Building technological upgrades that support energy/
resource efficiency 5 Direct project investment
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24 CALIF
ORNIA CURRENT TAX INCREMENT FINANCING TOOLS
The California Association for Local Economic Development (CALED), in their 2020 flyer, California Economic Development Financing Tools, compared the financing tools under the former redevelopment agencies (RDAs) with the “replacement” tax increment financing capabilities represented by Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs) and Community Revitalization Investment Authorities (CRIAs).
Part of CALED’s mission in doing this was to highlight the gaps in forming and using EIFDs and CRIAs that limit their usefulness to cities. In response to input from CALED and others, the State Legislature has enacted measures to facilitate the formation and other details related to EIFDs and CRIAs (e.g. SB 780), although these refinements have not necessarily resolved all issues related to these tools.
In their flyer, CALED states that, “our members have found that EIFDs and CRIAs are only feasible for a small number of cities who have a larger share of property tax revenues [compared to many cities that have minimal shares of property taxes] and significant new development in the proposed district.” A related issue is the cities’ burden of commitments related to former redevelopment agencies and holdings.
Otherwise (based on the CALED flyer), the powers and financing options associated with EIFDs and CRIAs closely parallel those of the RDA, albeit with restrictions on capture of tax increments associated with school districts and other entities (where consent to participate is required). Some key differences between EIFDs and CRIAs include the fact that land conveyance is not available through EIFD but is in a limited sense possible with CRIA. Maintenance of improvements financed by EIFD is permitted under that program but not under CRIA (and was also not a power associated with RDA). Of the two programs, CRIA has a stronger focus on affordable housing.
The issue of municipal property tax share would seem to be minimal for Antioch, which has a share of property tax receipts at the upper end of the typical municipality range. From our review of the budget, commitments to the former redevelopment agency appear to be manageable. Some cities that are attempting to implement EIFD programs have designated very large districts, including scattered, non- contiguous sites. This approach would appear to be compatible with Antioch’s development interests in multiple locations.
City of Carson (Los Angeles County) EIFD Example
The City of Carson is currently embarked on setting up an EIFD program, and an overview of the characteristics of their program
2 is instructive (and contextually relevant to Antioch):
• The proposed Carson EIFD encompasses 1,735 acres of land, representing 14% of the City's area.
The attached map illustrates the “scattered sites” (and multiple-sized sites) nature of Carson’s proposed District area, which could be an approach also adopted by Antioch (i.e., spread across the multiple, non-contiguous employment centers that are the focus of this Action Plan). 2 https://ci.carson.ca.us/communitydevelopment/EIFD.aspx B26
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25 • The p
rogram is being formulated in partnership with the County of Los Angeles. (Participation by Contra Costa County would significantly expanding the property tax increment that would be generated by an EIFD in Antioch.)
• The overall objective is “to support needed public infrastructure, low and moderate income and workforce housing, rehabilitation, and environmental mitigation and remediation of brownfields of [certain] properties.”
• The City established a separate entity, the Public Financing Authority (PFA), that will oversee the creation and management of the Carson EIFD. (Antioch already has such an entity in place, which could potentially be adapted to address the needs of an EIFD.) Entities forming an EIFD must prepare an Infrastructure Financing Plan (IFP) that includes descriptive material, various findings required for District formulation, goals related to specific District components, and other details. The heart of the IFP is a Financing Section addressing the following (in the Carson IFP and also statutorily required):
• A specification of the maximum portion of the incremental tax revenue of the city or county and of each affected taxing entity proposed to be committed to the district, for each year. • A projection of the amount of tax revenues expected to be received by the District in each year. • A plan for financing the public facilities to be assisted by the District, including a detailed description of any intention to incur debt.
• A limit on the total number of dollars of taxes that may be allocated to the District pursuant to the plan.
• A date on which the District will cease to exist.
• An analysis of the costs to the city or county of providing facilities and services to the area of the District while the area is being developed and after the area is developed. • An analysis of the projected fiscal impact of the District and the associated development upon each affected taxing entity.
• A plan for financing any potential costs that may be incurred by reimbursing a developer of a project [meeting certain criteria].
As may be clear from the preceding, preparation of the IFP is a major undertaking on its own, and represents only a portion of the effort (and cost) required to establish and manage an EIFD. Ideally, Antioch could apply federal (e.g., ARPA) funds to establishing the EIFD, if the City chose to establish a District.
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26 City o
f Carson (Los Angeles County) EIFD Boundary Map
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27 5. Potential Target Industries
As part
of the process of preparing this Action Plan, the City commissioned an industry cluster study (detailed in a separate document) to identify potential employment growth targets for Antioch. In addition, the City sought input from key stakeholders (including TRI Commercial) to identify potential emerging industries that do not currently show up as strong in traditional industry cluster data. Based on these sources, potential target industries for Antioch are summarized on Table 3 on the following page.
It should be emphasized that the list of “candidate” industries is intended to provide a general indication of the
types of activities that Antioch is well-positioned to pursue. It is not intended to define “winners and losers” for purposes of prioritizing the City’s project investments. It is entirely possible that viable funding requests from business types not listed on the table will present attractive opportunities for the City.
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28 TABLE 3. LIST OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS FOR ANTIOCH’S TARGET INDUSTRY PROGRAM Strategic Approach Local-serving Clusters “Traded” Clusters Build on (or facilitate
repositioning of) Antioch’s
existing core strengths
• Health services
• Retail/personal services
• Hospitality
• Local real estate and
construction services
• Food and beverage
processing/distribution
• Local utilities
• Construction products
(manufacturing)
• Water transportation
• Environmental services (waste
management)
• Distribution/electronic
commerce
Tap into dominant East Bay
industry clusters that are
not currently well
represented in the city
• IT and analytical instruments
• Medical devices mfg.
• Automotive mfg.
• Biopharmaceuticals
• Education and knowledge
creation
• Business services
Cultivate or respond to
emerging industries that do
not currently show up as
strong in industry cluster
data
• Cannabis-related
• Biosynthetic and or advanced
food manufacturing
• MakerTech (including possible
focus on Drones/Robotics)
• Logistics
• Wholesale trade for value-
added industries (e.g., value
added food industries,
biosynthetic construction
materials, agricultural products
from East County and Central
Valley)
• R&D facilities (e.g., life science,
biosynthetic building materials)
• University/community college
field stations related to onsite
R&D activities
Source: TNDG; TRI Commercial
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APPENDIX A
East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC)
Application for Build Back Better Regional Challenge
(EBiC has been selected as a finalist for funding)
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 1 East Bay Innovation Cluster Vision
The East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) consists of four complementary projects that strategically position the East Bay as an innovation hub in Life Sciences, Technology, Mobility/Smart City Infrastructure and Artificial Intelligence (AI). All of the proposed projects will strategically leverage BART’s infrastructure and developable land, as well as support BART’s core mission as the region’s premiere public transit agency.
Critical to our region’s ability to achieve maximum industry-sector growth is the concurrent evolution of the built environment to meet the infrastructure, facility and workforce housing needs.
EBiC programs will be housed in state-of-the-art facilities to be constructed or retrofitted at or near BART’s urban-core stations. Our experienced proposal partners will leverage their regional industry strengths – in Life Sciences and Technology – that exist today - but have been predominantly absent from the marginalized communities of color found in the East Bay.
Our goal is to promote equity and inclusion as well as the acceleration of the Life Sciences and Technology that will drive our future growth. We will create career/employment, small business and wealth building opportunities through comprehensive educational, workforce development, mobility, early childcare support and other human infrastructure initiatives. We plan to bring cutting-edge mobility and life sciences innovations to market by positioning supercomputer data processing near BART’s region-wide fiber optic and uninterrupted power supply network.
BART, as one of the largest landowners in the region, has proactively advanced the public-private development of its land with a goal (among others) to grow the jobs base in the East Bay. The EBiC will initially engage three privately entitled Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) sites (Mandela Station, Lake Merritt and 19
th St./Eastline) to accommodate industry growth and drive equitable outcomes through immediate private sector investment. BART is currently completing an FTA-funded jobs-attraction strategy for a segment of its land further south in the East Bay that expands the reach of this cluster, ultimately connecting to Silicon Valley.
We are a coalition of doers with undisputable experience, broad community and stakeholder relationships, global business leadership and an unwavering sense of duty to rectify the absence of financial stability in underserved communities.
Key Projects To Develop the East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) Project 1 – Develop a unified life sciences incubation/acceleration program to foster innovation and emerging technologies - while integrating entrepreneur and workforce development and internship programs to advance diversity, equity and inclusion in the Life Science industry.
CLSI and QB3 will together build a new life sciences workforce development and internship program and expand on their existing incubation/accelerator programs providing opportunities to East Bay residents who have had little to no previous access to the life sciences industry.
The Mandela Station Life Sciences Workforce Development and Internship Program will be a collaboration with QB3, CLSI and the Oakland Private Industry Council (PIC), a 501(c)(3) with over 30 years of innovation in East Bay workforce development initiatives. Program leadership and operations will be led by CLSI. Their strong relationships with Bay Area regional colleges and universities are valuable resources when engaging students to join the life sciences industry.
The program will build hands-on, industry-relevant training opportunities connecting their students to careers in the life sciences industry.
The initial pilot of the EBiC Life Sciences Incubator/Accelerator will be housed at the centrally located West Oakland BART Transit Oriented Development (TOD) known as Mandela Station.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 2 The site is accessible from UC Berkeley, a source of some of the most significant scientific advances of the era, as well as UC San Francisco, the UC system’s core life sciences research facility. Mandela Station will house an ecosystem to support diverse and nimble early/mid-stage life sciences companies, such as graduates of QB3’s incubators and also more mature life sciences companies. The fully equipped facility will be designed to exploit the Bay Area’s unique convergence of life science and digital technology - housing a unique array of high-performance computing capability.
The incubation/accelerator initiative is intended to capture companies graduating from QB3 startup facilities in Berkeley and other regional locations and provide them with transit-oriented, affordable, research and development (R&D) facilities specifically designed to facilitate biotech research. By capturing companies graduating from QB3, companies are retained inside the EBiC and contribute to the regional economic growth and intellectual property development.
Mandela Station’s design will include the provision of and access to a state-of-the-art suite of tools such as supercomputing, software applications, AI and high-speed data transmission infrastructure.
These facilities and technology resources will significantly increase time-to-market capabilities of early-stage entrepreneurs, as well as established life sciences companies. The intent is to tap into the wealth of intellectual property being generated by University of California, Stanford and the greater Bay Area private life sciences ecosystem. Recent growth in this industry sector has created a tremendous demand for services and space and the state’s needs to maintain its leadership in life science innovation.
As later discussed in Project 4, Mandela Station plans to install a central supercomputing resource and tap into the existing fiber optic network installed throughout the BART system right(s) of way.
The EBiC Life Sciences Incubator/Accelerator will establish strategic differentiation and long- term global competitiveness for the region. The project will showcase a model for transforming data from curriculums and research into a quantifiable benefit for local communities. The design, construction and ownership of the facilities will also adopt the Leadership in Engineering Equitable Participation (LEEP) initiative best practices to achieve socially responsible, equitable and inclusive development of the facility.
Mandela Station and its EBiC Incubator will have a significant impact on the overall East Bay economy. We calculate that over five years, we will house approximately 132 companies generating over 1,100 new jobs yielding direct added regional economic growth of $258M. The workforce development component will serve 800 clients from the local community and, at an 85% placement rate in positions with a $60,000
+ starting salary (typical for the life sciences industry in the Bay Area), it will yield $65M in salaries and benefits going directly into this severely disadvantaged demographic. The multiplier effect of these job placements will drive the total to approximately $140M in new economic activity for West Oakland residents.
Summary of Project 1 Benefits: 1) practical workforce development training, an internship program and a biotech incubator for primarily people of color that result in high paying jobs in the Bay Area’s fastest growing industry, 2) royalty revenue streams for University of California, 3) small business enterprises providing a pathway of access for entrepreneurs of color to new innovations in the markets of the future, 4) bringing life sciences cluster uses to Mandela Station and its adjacent West Oakland development sites and 5) approximately 132 companies generating over 1,100 new jobs yielding $65M in salaries and benefits.
Matching Funds: Life sciences industry partners, California State, U.C. Office of the President, and Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD) Funding B33
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 3 Project 2 – Develop an innovative mobility ecosystem that leverages BART’s infrastructure and smart city technologies to enhance the mobility connecting the Life Sciences and Tech clusters As the lead applicant and head of this initiative, BART provides the critical infrastructure asset that physically links multiple Bay Area economic clusters together - including the emergent life sciences, academic and tech clusters in the East Bay. The EBiC will focus on incubating holistic, cutting-edge and scalable mobility solutions that complement the BART regional system.
For example, EBiC solutions will involve the deployment of distributed AI enabled computing systems tied to advanced sensor technologies (i.e., radar, lidar and ultrasonic) to incorporate AI enabled vehicle-to-infrastructure technologies to enhance fields-of-vision and facilitate safe adoption of autonomous vehicle technologies. Among many benefits, this automated technology will enable more robust last-mile connectivity to BART – including assisting those with disabilities.
The technology also enables the future integration of multiple public transit modalities that connect to BART as well as regional automated delivery of goods and services.
These systems will also evaluate roadway, parking conditions and traffic patterns to achieve safer, and more efficient roadways. Safe driving, walking and cycling programs (already partially funded by a recent $28M climate grant from the State to the City of Oakland) will incorporate these new mobility solutions.
Another example is the evolution of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) which involves integrating various modes of public and private transport into a single mobility service accessible on demand.
MaaS uses hardware and app-based data solutions to improve operational management, access efficiencies and facilitate manned and autonomous shuttle services to link neighborhoods, including specific industry clusters, with BART stations. Other Mobility/Smart City solutions include electric vehicle innovations for cars/bikes, related energy/charging infrastructure and providing community Wi-Fi Access.
This project will both catalyze private investment by removing critical barriers associated with BART’s aging infrastructure and create high paying permanent jobs in sought-after fields related to operating and servicing new mobility infrastructure. In addition to enhancements to BART’s aging transportation infrastructure to support private investment in new commercial development, a new Mobility workforce development program will be created to upskill, train and employ new workers to install, operate and oversee these new technologies.
Summary of Project 2 Benefits: 1) systems and services that leverage BART’s rail and data networks, 2) new long-term revenue generation and resilience to BART, 3) private investment in the region by enhancing and extending BART’s service area and connectivity, 4) new entrepreneurial opportunities and high paying permanent jobs in sought-after fields related to installing, operating and servicing new mobility infrastructure, 5) accelerate the safety, adoption and implementation of autonomous technologies of the future and 6) enhancement of BART’s aging system and advance goals of increasing ridership and customer satisfaction.
One challenge for the project will be the time needed to realize and measure the benefits related to changes in travel behavior and job connectivity. Also, aligning the project to community needs will be very important. Our team will initiate a thoughtful stakeholder engagement strategy to understand the community’s needs, concerns and aspirations.
Matching Funds: State of California grants, Private Capital and Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD), Institutional Investors
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 4 Project 3 – Develop complementary technology workforce development and Early Childhood Education & Care programs that foster diversity, equity and inclusion The Mandela Station Technology Workforce Development Program will be co-led by Generation USA, ConSol USA, the Oakland Private Industry Council (PIC) and Mills College. The four entities will launch a variety of services from within the EBiC that recruit, train, directly employ and provide early childhood education and care for individuals from the regional cluster areas to work in various technology functional areas – Cybersecurity, Data Analytics, Database Management, Application Support, Network Engineering and IT Support.
Generation USA will lead technology vocational and professional training. They are the fastest scaling and largest global employment program as measured by annual volume for training and placing learners in sustainable careers. Generation has almost 3,800 employer partners and has shown Return-On-Investment gains – 80% of its graduates are employed in first job 6 months after job start , 3-5X increase in wages post-graduation and an 81% graduation rate.
ConSol will employ and manage the workforce and also contract with private/public sector companies and organizations to deliver outsourced technology services to them. ConSol customers may be located within the EBiC, in the region or nationally, since in many instances, outsourced technology services are rendered remotely. The goal is within 5 years to employ at least 1,000 people who have traditionally not had access to in-demand technology-based jobs. As full-time employees of ConSol, trained participants work for ConSol’s clients as outsourced contract technology workers. In turn, ConSol provides support for long-term upwardly mobile careers with substantial income generating potential, full benefits, continued training and further up-skilling as needed. The work starts with the Oakland PIC who will handle on-the-ground community organization and outreach, engagement, recruitment, prospect intake and readiness triage. During the pilot, Mandela Station and/or Mills College will provide needed facilities.
In support of all aspects of the EBiC projects, Mills College will be providing Early Childhood Education And Care Services (ECEC) for students and staffs associated with the entrepreneur and workforce development initiatives. The pilot program includes two satellite lab schools located in two traditionally underserved communities in Oakland, CA – West Oakland, the site of the Mandela Station and an East Oakland location (to be determined). Both locales will make available early childhood education and care using a cross subsidization financial model to neighborhood families and EBiC participants to ensure equitable and sustainable childcare access for families across the income spectrum. ECEC centers will create 101 competitively paid teaching and administrative positions to support a student population of 264 children ages 0-5. The program locations become training sites for ECEC educators/practitioners (placement for Mills students) while advancing a national model for early childhood education and care workforce development and professionalization. The availability of these schools allows program participants with access to high-quality early childhood education and care at the same time they are experiencing upskilling.
Summary of Project 3 Benefits: 1) on-site training, virtual learning, internships at Mandela Station or another cluster location, 2) employment for at least 1,000 people over the course of 5 years to work in various high paying technology functional areas, 3) early childhood education and care using a cross subsidization financial model and 4) creation of 101 competitively paid teaching and administrative positions to support a student population of 264 children ages 0-5.
Matching Funds: Technology industry clients, Philanthropic Partners, Early Head Start, EIFD Funding
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 5 Project 4: Create an AI (Artificial Intelligence) Data Center & Innovation Hub Another really exciting component of developing our Life Sciences/Tech Hubs, Mobility Ecosystem and small business and workforce development programs is the EBiC AI Supercomputing Data Processing Centers. These centers facilitate data transfer to/from the built- environment and everyday users, process complex large data sets and perform concurrent computations to enable effective decision-making.
These centers will meet an increasing global demand for sophisticated AI-enabled services to support bio-medical research and data/application services required for the smart city mobility initiatives (e.g., image and speech recognition, natural language processing, visual search and personalized recommendations). The initial pilot location will again be Mandela Station (which is currently under development by EBiC partner Strategic Urban Development Alliance, LLC), with other future data centers to be strategically implemented at or near BART TOD locations as deemed feasible and appropriate. The EBiC supercomputing systems, services and suite of software applications will provide life science tenants at Mandela Station the ability to process and transform complex data sets into new products and capabilities. These efficiencies materialize into economic benefit. This is a key advantage for smaller labs to ultimately become more competitive in the Biotech industry. The systems will also be tied to BART’s regional fiber optic network and uninterrupted power supply to maximize the capabilities of system users. The supercomputer will also be made available to all life sciences and mobility partners to create AI hubs in other underserved communities that facilitate enhanced education and research.
We will use the data centers to facilitate the data services required to support the Smart City Mobility platforms and initiatives as described in Project 2 by allowing the coordination of transit solutions and connectivity throughout BART’s 50 stations and its 131.4 miles of track.
Additionally, the centers will give the education, small business and workforce development tenants as outlined in Project 3 a powerful high-performance computing, research and educational cyberinfrastructure. All this will take place in underserved communities of color.
This effort will also be sponsored by NVIDIA, a pioneer in accelerated computing who has the task of creating the pilot data center and expanding its successful NVIDIA Inception program to the EBiC. NVIDIA Inception is an incubation/acceleration platform for AI, data science and high- performance computing startups, providing critical go-to-market support, expertise and technology to over 400 AI start-ups. EBiC will likely be among the nation’s first comprehensive incubator/accelerator to make AI a ubiquitous part of its economic development enterprise.
Summary of Project 4 Benefits: 1) support the incubation of bio-medical research and computational technologies as described in Project 1 above, 2) facilitate the data services as described in Project 2 needed to support the Smart City Mobility platforms and initiatives, 3) support education, small business and workforce development objectives as outlined in Project 3 and 4) provide supercomputer and AI data services to potential users throughout the region and particularly in underserved communities.
Matching Funds: Life Sciences and Technology industry partners B36
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 6 Appendix
Regional Assets
Bay Area Rapid
Transit District
(“BART”)
The San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) is a heavy- rail public transit system that connects the San Francisco Peninsula with communities in the East Bay and South Bay. For more than 45 years BART has provided fast, reliable transportation to downtown offices, shopping centers, tourist attractions, entertainment venues, universities and other destinations for Bay Area residents and visitors alike. It comprises of over 131 miles of track covering 50 stations and a fleet of 916 train cars.
BART is the EBiC’s lead applicant and is co-leading the Mobility, Infrastructure Improvement and Smart City Technology project.
California Institute
for Quantitative
Biosciences (QB3)
QB3 is the leading state institute dedicated to supporting the California innovation bio-economy with operations at the UC campuses at Berkeley, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz. The institute supports UC researchers and empowers Bay Area entrepreneurs to launch startup companies and partner with industry. Over its almost eighteen year of existence QB3 has brought in billions in external funding into the Bay Area economy and helped many hundreds of companies get started. With its affiliates, it has started three venture funds and run several incubators. Three of the companies it has funded or housed in its incubators (Zymergen, 4D Therapeutics, Caribou) are located in the East Bay and have had successful IPOs in the last year alone.
QB3 will co-lead the development of the new combined life sciences workforce development/internship/incubation/accelerator program.
California Life
Sciences Institute
(CLSI)
CLSI is a non-profit (501(c)(3)) dedicated to the support of entrepreneurship, education, and workforce development in the life sciences. CLSI is the nonprofit arm of California Life Sciences, the state’s most influential and impactful life sciences membership organization (with over 400 member firms), advocating for the sector and its diverse innovation pipeline. For the last eight years, CLSI’s core advisory program has graduated 85 companies that have collectively raised over $1.9B and have added almost 600 new life sciences jobs to the economy.
CLSI will co-lead the development of the new combined life sciences workforce development/internship/incubation/accelerator program.
Mills College Founded in 1852 and located in East Oakland, Mills College is the first women's college west of the Rockies and the oldest undergraduate college for women in the West. It proudly serves a diverse student body composed of 66% undergraduate students of color and 44% first-generation undergraduate students.
As an institution of higher learning, Mills sponsors The Center for Transformative Action at Mills College. The Center for Transformative Action brings together students, thought and practice leaders, policy makers, and others to share ideas for building profitable, s ustainable B37
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 7 organizations and effective nonprofits to address social, environmental, and policy problems. The center hosts a high-profile annual conference in partnership with the Lokey School of Business and Public Policy chapter of Net Impact, an international organization of MBA students and professionals who are working for a sustainable future. The EBiC will work with The Center for Transformative Action to bring together and connect people and organizations to build a strong social enterprise ecosystem in the East Bay and greater San Francisco Bay Area.
As one of the eligible applicants in this Phase 1 NOFO application, Mills will create the early childhood education and care centers in the EBiC to help support the workforce development programs in Life Sciences and Technology.
Peralta
Community
College District
Founded in 1964, the Peralta Community College District (PCCD) is a collaborative community of colleges comprised of Berkeley City College, College of Alameda, and Laney and Merritt colleges in Oakland, CA. The Peralta Colleges provide a dynamic multicultural learning environment offering accessible, high-quality educational programs and services, including two-year degrees, certificates and university transfer programs, to more than 30,000 students.
The Peralta Colleges will work with all EBiC projects across internships, workforce development and early childhood education and care initiatives.
Peralta strongly supports the EBiC’s NOFO application but, unfortunately, a Letter of Support was not available before the NOFO application submission deadline.
University of San
Francisco School
of Management
Professor William (Billy) Riggs, PhD, AICP, LEED AP is a global expert and thought leader in the areas of autonomy and smart transportation, housing, economics and urban development. He has over 100 publications in these areas and has held additional academic appointments in city planning and transportation engineering from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, UC Berkeley, San Jose State University, and the University of Louisville.
In addition to his academic roles, Riggs also has almost two decades of experience working as an urban planner, policy maker, economist, and engineer. Riggs currently sits on the City of Palo Alto’s Planning and Transportation Commission, is a member of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Committee on Transportation Economics and provides strategy and consulting to multiple companies on smart mobility and urban development.
Oakland Unified
School District
(OUSD)
Local school district comprised of over 2,300 teachers and ~1,800 school staff responsible for ~52,000 students ranging from TK to 12th Grade that span across 124 schools and represent ~89% students of color.
OUSD’s students will benefit from the internship, educational and potential workforce development programs being offered through the EBiC. OUSD teachers and staff may benefit from the early childhood education and care services being offered by the EBiC.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 8 East Bay
Economic
Development
Alliance (EDA)
Founded in 1990, the East Bay EDA is a 150 + member organization that serves as the regional voice and networking resource for strengthening the economy, building the workforce and enhancing the quality of life in the East Bay.
The East Bay EDA is a contractor to BART and will serve as the Regional Economic Competitiveness Officer.
Association of Bay
Area Governments
(ABAG)
ABAG is part regional planning agency and part local government service provider that provides research and analysis, education and outreach, and regional coalition coordination. ABAG’s membership consists of all 9 Bay Area counties and associated cities. ABAG co-sponsored the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for the San Francisco Bay Area.
ABAG strongly supports the EBiC’s NOFO application and will help to build awareness and consensus across its East Bay constituencies.
Building and
Construction
Trades Council of
Alameda County
(BTCA)
The Building and Construction Trades Council of Alameda County is a coalition of 28 affiliated unions representing workers in various construction trades.
The BTCA realizes the transformational value of the EBiC and its impact on labor union jobs.
Cypress Mandela Cypress Mandela Training Center has provided high quality construction industry employment training, job preparation and job placement services in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties for more than 30 years.
Cypress Mandela will facilitate and actively support the workforce development initiative related to the Mobility Ecosystem initiative.
Industry Leadership
Project 1 – Life Sciences Innovation Hub
Sutro BioPharma Member company of California Life Sciences. Committed to hiring BIPOC students who finish the EBiC workforce development training program, make Sutro’s employees available to participate in EBiC’s workforce development program, provide mentoring support for life science innovators in the EBiC incubator to translate their innovation into real-world products and create learning opportunities for future biotech professionals through education and internship programs. nkarta
Therapeutics
Member company of California Life Sciences. Committed to hiring BIPOC students who finish the EBiC workforce development training program, make Nkarta employees available to participate in EBiC’s workforce development program, provide mentoring support for life science innovators in the EBiC incubator to translate their innovation into real-world products and create learning opportunities for future biotech professionals through education and internship programs.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 10 and ensure sustainability goals are met. TESIAC brings an experienced and interdisciplinary team and partners together with new and innovative technologies. TESIAC’s integrated solution approach helps communities and corporate participants achieve their goals – Climate, Social Equity, Job Creation and Sustainable Development.
Star America Fund
II GP, LLC/
Tikehau Capital
Star America is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tikehau Capital SCA, a publicly listed entity on the regulated market Euronext Paris. Tikehau Capital SCA has €30.9 billion of assets under management (as of June 30, 2021) including €10.9 billion in its growing Real Assets platform (as of June 30, 2021). Star America’s Fund II is providing an Equity Letter of Support to TESIAC Corp. as it pertains to matching share investment in the proposed infrastructure project related to mobility, energy, and smart city technology for the East Bay Innovation Cluster (“EBiC”).
Loop Capital Loop Capital is a full-service investment bank, brokerage and advisory firm that provides creative capital solutions for corporate, governmental and institutional entities across the globe. Loop Capital was founded in 1997 and is now one of the largest privately-held investment banks in the U.S. and the largest minority or women-owned investment banking firm in the world. Loop Capital is a strategic infrastructure capital partner for the development of the East Bay Innovation Cluster.
Acumen Building
Enterprise
Acumen has participated in early brainstorming sessions. Headquartered and grown in Oakland, Acumen has been working in the transportation, mobility, and infrastructure space across the nation for more than 25 years.
Acumen has gained experience, delivered, and been involved in transportation and infrastructure projects BART, Alameda County Transportation Commission (implementation of highway projects) and the City of Oakland (street improvement projects). Acumen will co-lead the Mobility initiative with BART, TESIAC and SUDA. Acumen has committed to interface with Oakland Unified School District and the Peralta Community College District to create job opportunities and mentoring and coaching programs.
SparkCharge SparkCharge was founded in 2017 with the goal to build the world's largest mobile electric vehicle charging network through hardware, software, and partnerships. It's Roadie Charging System is a portable modular charging solution that makes charging accessible regardless of infrastructure.
SparkCharge has committed to work with other EBiC industry partners to bring good-paying cleantech jobs to the EBiC.
AEKO Consulting AEKO Consulting has participated in early brainstorming sessions.
Oakland-based solutions integration firm specializing in the development, implementation, and maintenance of secure communication, mobility and renewable energy technology infrastructure. AEKO will provide program management and technology implementation services. Committed to hiring local talent as part of this initiative.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 11 Beam Global Beam Global is part of the TESIAC consortium. Based in San Diego, Beam produces sustainable Made in America patented products for electric vehicle charging, energy security and outdoor media. Beam is publicly traded on Nasdaq under the ticker BEEM. Beam Global is prepared to advance economic development within the region through local job creation, resilient infrastructure investment, and job access to disadvantage and underserved communities. TESIAC is one of the co- leads for the Mobility Ecosystem initiative and has helped to define the project’s scope, approach and deliverables.
Arcimoto Arcimoto is part of the TESIAC consortium and has agreed to provide their products and expertise to develop a cohesive mobility ecosystem strategy for the EBiC. Arcimoto (NASDAQ: FUV) develops and manufactures ultra-efficient and affordable electric vehicles to help the world shift to a sustainable transportation system. Arcimoto’s flagship vehicle, the Arcimoto FUV®, is purpose-built for everyday driving and transforms ordinary trips into pure-electric joyrides.
OODA OODA is part of the TESIAC consortium and has agreed to provide their products and expertise to develop a cohesive mobility ecosystem strategy for the EBiC. OODA is a global strategic advisory firm with deep DNA in global security, technology, and intelligence issues. OODA is comprised of a unique team of international experts lead by co-founders Matt Devost and Bob Gourley. Matt and Bob have been collaborating for two decades on advanced technology, intelligence, and security issues.
Via Mobility Via is part of the TESIAC consortium and has agreed to provide their products and expertise to develop a cohesive mobility ecosystem strategy for the EBiC. Via Mobility is a pioneer in the TransitTech industry. Via’s software provides an end-to-end solution to plan, optimize, and operate efficient and equitable transit systems - unlocking opportunity for all, and building resilient cities for the future. With over 500 transit partners, Via Mobility is present in 5 continents and its powerful digital infrastructure is responsible for over 90 million transit rides. Via Mobility’s technology enables partners to create end-to-end transit systems: from planning better networks and streets to operating efficient public transit and student transportation.
Dannar Dannar is part of the TESIAC consortium and has agreed to provide their products and expertise to develop a cohesive mobility ecosystem strategy for the EBiC. DANNAR is an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) of the first-ever mobile, off-road energy platform, providing off-grid export power for planned daily and seasonal needs and unexpected emergency response. Headquartered in Indiana, DANNAR is changing the way we work, build, repair and use electricity.
Juicebar EV Juicebar is part of the TESIAC consortium and has agreed to provide their products and expertise to develop a cohesive mobility ecosystem strategy for the EBiC. JuiceBar is a pioneer in EV Charging stations and has been committed to bu ilding a global EV charging infrastructure since 2009.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 12 JuiceBar chargers are manufactured and assembled in America and can be found in hundreds of cities throughout North America. Their latest 300 Series ‘Gen 3’ chargers offer charge times that are 60-250% faster than the industry's standard Level 2 charger, offer unique safety features, and are network agnostic.
SF Bay Area CEDS Alignment – Goal 1: Objectives 1.2, 1.3, 1.4; Goal 2: Objectives 2.1,
2.2, 2.3, 2.4; Goal 3: Objectives 3.1; Goal 4: Objectives 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.5 Project 3 – Technology Workforce Development
Consol USA ConSol will co-lead the Tech Workforce Development project and has helped to define the project’s scope, approach and deliverables. Based in Oakland, Consol is a minority-founded, owned, and led for-profit social enterprise that operates nationally, and is focused on providing outsourced technology services and staff augmentation to major corporations in the U.S. with talent drawn from underserved diverse populations. ConSol and Generation (the eligible applicant and co-lead) have entered into a national partnership to develop outsourced services in the rapidly growing technology sector that provides robust upward career mobility, economic opportunity, and wealth creation for people irrespective of gender, socio- economic background, or ethnicity. ConSol has committed to training and hiring the graduates of the Tech Workforce Development project.
SF Bay Area CEDS Alignment – Goal 1: Objectives 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4; Goal 2: Objectives 2.1,
2.2, 2.3, 2.4; Goal 3: Objectives 3.1; Goal 4: Objectives 4.2 Project 4 – Artificial Intelligence Data Center
NVIDIA NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) has created platforms for scientific computing, artificial intelligence, data science, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and augmented and virtual reality. In the life sciences and healthcare industries, NVIDIA is powering healthcare solutions across drug discovery, genomics, medical imaging and smart hospitals and medical instruments. NVIDIA’s Metropolis platform maintains and improves city infrastructure, parking spaces, buildings, and public services via intelligent traffic systems, access controls, public transit and smart buildings. NVIDIA will be installing an Artificial Intelligence (AI) data center at Mandela Station and provide additional support services via its NVIDIA Inception program to help spur AI innovations in life sciences and smart city technologies. NVIDIA will collaborate on developing Tech workforce development initiatives that help bridge the access gap and create a more inclusive workforce and help to identify potential partners in industry and educational institutions to provide exposure to education and research innovation.
SF Bay Area CEDS Alignment – Goal 1: Objectives 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5; Goal 2: Objectives
2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4; Goal 3: Objectives 3.1; Goal 4: Objectives 4.2, 4.5 B42
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 13 Indicative Program Timeline
The EBiC coalition and private sector industry partners submit this high level indicative timeline to form an initial view into the overall timing of the program’s workstreams and phases.
East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) High Level Program Timeline
PRELIMINARY
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023 H1 2024 H2 2024 H1 2025 H2 2025 H1 2026 H2 2026 H1 2027 H2 2027 Prepare and Submit Phase 2 NOFO application Dec-Mar
Phase 2 awards announced Sep
Project 1 - Life Sciences Innovation Hub
Planning Planning
Initial Seed Cohort Initial Seed Cohort
Scale Scale
Steady State Steady State
Project 2 - Mobility Ecosystem
Planning Planning Planning
Procurement Procurement
Calibration/Testing Calibration / Testing
First Smart Mobility Zone (SMZ) Deployment 1st SMZ
Smart Mobility Ops Center (SMOC) Development & Launch SMOC Remaining SMZs Deployment
Project 3 - Technology Workforce Development
Planning Planning Planning
Site Setup / Onboarding Onboarding
Training Training
Deployment Deployment
Steady State Steady State
Project 4 - Artificial Intelligence Data Center
Planning Planning Planning
Mandela Building Construction
Phase 1 Computer & Network Design Design
Site Prep, Installation, Training Installation
Onboarding Onboarding
Scale Phase 1 Scale Phase 1
Design Phase 2 Expansion Phase 2 Design
Phase 2 Expansion to Mandela Bldg Installation
Steady State Steady State
Mandela Construction
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 9 CytomX
Therapeutics
Member company of California Life Sciences. Committed to hiring BIPOC students who finish the EBiC workforce development training program, make CytomX employees available to participate in EBiC’s workforce development program, provide mentoring support for life science innovators in the EBiC incubator to translate their innovation into real-world products and create learning opportunities for future biotech professionals through education and internship programs.
Global Blood
Therapeutics
(“GBT”)
Member company of California Life Sciences. Committed to hiring BIPOC students who finish the EBiC workforce development training program, make Global Blood Therapeutics employees available to participate in EBiC’s workforce development program, provide mentoring support for life science innovators in the EBiC incubator to translate their innovation into real-world products and create learning opportunities for future biotech professionals through education and internship programs.
Strategic Urban
Development
Alliance
(“SUDA”)
Based in Oakland, Strategic Urban Development Alliance, LLC, (“SUDA”) is a boutique real estate development firm specializing in large- scale, innovative, public agency projects and mixed- use development.
SUDA, has been involved in some of Oakland’s signature projects, starting from the Thomas Berkely Building (the current home of the Social Services Agency) to the Eastline project (a 2.4M SF urban Transit Oriented Development in Downtown Oakland), and the West Oakland BART Station redevelopment (Mandela Station), also a Transit Oriented Development with ~1 million SF of office space, 550 housing units and ~100K SF of retail space.
Beacon Rose
Partners
San Francisco-based Beacon Rose Partners is a real estate investment and advisory firm focused on developing and repositioning urban properties across geographies. Beacon Rose is currently working with SUDA in the development of the Life Sciences building at Mandela Station. Beacon Rose assisted in developing the Phase 1 NOFO application and coordinated activities with the various stakeholders .
Beacon Rose plans to support the development of the Phase 2 EBiC application, provide access to its investor group to provide capital to the Life Sciences Innovation Hub and Mobility Ecosystem projects and provide technical support and program coordination and advisory services to the EBiC coalition members and industry partners.
SF Bay Area CEDS Alignment – Goal 1: Objectives 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4; Goal 2: Objectives
2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4; Goal 3: Objectives 3.1; Goal 4: Objectives 4.2 Project 2 – Mobility Ecosystem
TESIAC Corp., TESIAC will co-lead the Mobility Ecosystem project and has helped to define the project’s scope, approach and deliverables. Based in Boston, TESIAC is an Economic Development and Managed Services Platform Company which aggregates mobility, energy, technology, and private capital to deliver integrated and interoperable infrastructure to accelerate B44
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 14 EBiC Private Sector Engagement Approach
The EBiC plans to cast a large net to include the participation of all its coalition members, private industry partners, government agencies and capital partners to engage the private sector:
§ East Bay EDA will be contracted by BART to take on the Regional Economic Competitiveness Officer role for the East Bay Innovation Cluster. The East Bay EDA is a 150+ member organization that serves as the regional voice and networking resource for strengthening the economy, building the workforce and enhancing the quality of life in the East Bay. As the central economic development organization in the East Bay, the East Bay EDA is well position to help the EBiC engage the private industry sector. Through its membership, East Bay EDA understands the needs of major employers in the region and is are aware of key projects and strategic initiatives being contemplated by the private sector.
§ From a life sciences perspective, by virtue of their organization’s roles in the life sciences ecosystem in the state, California Life Sciences and QB3 have tremendous industry reach that will benefit the EBiC. California Life Sciences is the largest state and regional life sciences advocacy group in the country, with more than 797 members across biotechnology, pharmaceutical, medical device, and diagnostics companies, research universities and institutes, investors, and service providers. QB3 is the University of California’s life sciences incubator and has pioneered incubators and venture investing in biotech startups, fulfilling its mission of laying the foundations of entrepreneurship, community building and scientific discovery and innovation. QB3 is responsible for supporting 500 + early-
stage companies and currently has six incubator sites in the greater Bay Area. § From a technology perspective, the EBiC plans to call upon its broad network of relationships at leading technology providers and professional services firms – NVIDIA, Google, Intel, VMWare, World Wide Technology, Accenture, PwC, Oliver Wyman to name a few.
§ As one of the oldest workforce development organizations in the East Bay, the Oakland Private Industry Council has built a wide network of employers interested to hire employees from under-represented communities.
§ From a real estate perspective, the EBiC is supported by a number of seasoned and accomplished real estate development firms, professional service providers (e.g., architects, engineers, consultants, attorneys, brokers, etc.), construction companies and capital providers (e.g., banks, family offices, pension funds and high net worth investors). § Lastly, the EBiC will closely work and collaborate with the City of Oakland’s Economic & Workforce Development Department to help support Oakland businesses, train the workforce, reduce employment barriers, and create jobs by attracting new investment and capital sources.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 15 Sustainability of the EBiC
After the first five years, the programs will be mature enough to continue well beyond the ARPA awards period. To assure sustainability, EBiC is preparing to improve the cluster’s economic growth. For example, the QB3 and California Life Sciences will leverage their industry sector relationships to provide funding for the incubation, accelerator and workforce development program. Prospective life sciences employers will also financially support the workforce development initiative to ensure long-term financial sustainability. Also, for the Early Childhood Education & Care, Mills College will work with California Head Start and major philanthropies to explore funding sources to reduce or eliminate costs for qualifying families. Additionally, as part of the integrated workforce development initiatives, we are exploring cross-subsidization strategies across the EBiC to help bridge funding gaps for early childhood education and care. Our sustainability plan includes an overall capital strategy for Mandela Station with the creation of an Enhanced Infrastructure Financial District to help fund infrastructure costs and economic development related expenses.
Other key elements of the steady-state economic resilience plans are:
Affordable Housing – Poverty and housing go hand in hand. A roof over the family becomes a pressing concern when there is a decrease in salary/hours or a lost job. Covid-19 only exacerbated the problem. However, the Mandela Station project was predicated upon building sustainable and affordable housing to mitigate poverty - 240 affordable housing units with one-third dedicated to those previously homeless. EBiC connects housing, expanded employment and early childhood education – a recipe for long term success and the foundation to sustaining EBiC’s vision for economic growth.
Expanded funding and policies emerging from the state, county and cities will support sustainability. Mandela Station received the 2020 CA Affordable Sustainable Housing Grant of $29.6M – nearby Fruitvale Station also received this grant. In 2016, Oakland voters approved Bond Measure KK- $600,000M for affordable housing and the city launched its affordable housing impact fee. In 2021, California Comeback Plan’s $22 billion housing and homelessness investment will fund 84,000 new housing units. The Newsom administration recently advanced $800 million to build affordable infrastructure and housing. Funding opportunities like these and private sources will continue to be resources for affordable housing. When coupled with the occupants’ wage growth, affordable housing sustainability can definitely be realized.
Transportation – EBiC has at its core the ability to maximize housing near transit and improve transportation options. As a TOD we are well suited to continue the viability of the four proposed projects. EBiC projects are primarily housed at Mandela Station, the regional hub serving all BART lines with AC Transit bus operations for connections and nearby Amtrak where 30 trains operate daily between Sacramento and San Jose. Adding driverless and other automated options as technology develops and matures, increase mobility choices for East Bay residents helping to foster project longevity and increased asset utilization and ridership levels. Non-auto transportation modes along with walking and biking will remain available for participant training, placement and nonvirtual work assignments. BART, as the lead applicant, provides EBiC economic development practitioners as a transportation resource. Also, EBiC tech transportation innovator, TESIAC, secured an Equity Letter of Support from Star America, an infrastructure investment fund sponsored by Tikehau Capital, a European asset manager with €30.9 billion of assets under management. They have agreed to provide matching funds for the Phase 2 Build Back Better Regional Challenge application - see attached Equity Letter of Support. Additionally, B46
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 16 the Public-Private Partnerships established with the city of Oakland and local transit agencies yield private investment capital to fund the Mobility Ecosystem initiative. Finally, revenue opportunities exist when BART monetizes their fiber optic and uninterrupted power supply.
BART Policies –
BART owns over 250 acres of developable land at 27 stations in four counties, largely parking lots for BART riders. BART engaged in comprehensive planning efforts involving extensive engagement with the communities surrounding BART stations, local government agencies and land use advocacy organizations such as Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) to define and implement a collective vision for resilience. BART board adopted Affordable Housing Policy (2016), TOD Policy (2019), Development Principles Assembly Bill 2993 (2020) and Sustainability Principles in (2020). BART’s TOD projects will conform to locally adopted goals and objectives for TOD identified in local specific plans or other efforts, so long as zoning of BART property allows for densities and heights that are the highest possible under local economic and funding conditions and are consistent with Plan Bay Area 2050 and the Regional Housing Needs Allocation. Having BART on the EBiC team is critical to maximizing resources to for project sustainability.
Private developers with BART owned sites (West Oakland Mandela Station, Lake Merritt Station and Eastline at 19 th St Station) are approved by the City of Oakland for 3 million square of commercial space and 1,310 homes aligning with BART’s current TOD policy goals. These projects can be built without displacement for they utilize BART real estate formally reserved for station parking. Like Mandela Station all are comprised of expanded mixed-use and affordable housing criteria including density. The build-out will aid EBiC in sustaining the regional cluster reach. Further, BART’s TOD Program creates and sustains jobs in California: Every housing unit constructed on BART’s property generates 4.5 direct and indirect jobs in California. Every 1,000 square feet of commercial space generates 4.3 direct and indirect jobs in California. BART’s TOD program could generate 85,000 direct and indirect jobs in California between 2020 and 2030. Also, 62% of these jobs are “middle skill” jobs – requiring on the job training rather than a college degree but offering a living wage (BART TOD Work Plan- 2020).
Work Force Expansion & Integration – The Oakland Private Industry Council (OPIC) provides funding for vocational training, employment services and supportive services offered under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act Program (WIOA). It is a source of ongoing workforce public funding and “boots on the ground” with one-stop employment services in local East Bay communities. Industry partner California Institute of Quantitative Biosciences (QB3) will establish a life sciences incubation and accelerator program to develop entrepreneurs in Bioscience at the Mandela Station TOD and The California Life Sciences (CLSI) will provide programs in STEM education, entrepreneurship and workforce development. This public- private partnership is an investment in the economic future of California’s life sciences industry and will assure the sustainability of the programs to improve the cluster’s economic growth and shared prosperity. To address the lack of diversity and inclusion in Biotech Industry, California Life Sciences Institute’s Racial & Social Equity Initiative is a unified effort to do more for the historically excluded Black, Indigenous and other People of Color (BIPOC) populations in California. Coalition partners will focus on small businesses’ growth to drive industry growth which in turn expands the market to place our trainees/participants by outsource staff augmentation using ConSol’s national partnerships model. ConSol’s goal is to train and employ at least 1,000 people within life sciences over the course of 5 years creating an ecosystem to yield on exponential impact of sustainability and shared prosperity.
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October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 17 Ensuring Equity in the EBiC
The regional cluster for EBiC is found within the San Francisco Bay Area, known globally as an economic powerhouse. We know it to be a study in economic contrasts. In 2018, the San Francisco and Silicon Valley life science clusters enjoyed a 5.7% expansion of the labor force while the East Bay clusters experienced a contraction of 0.7% in employment1.
Clearly the Bay Area’s economic prosperity has come at a cost. The Bay Area is ranked third nationally in economic inequality. High-income families earn 11x more than families on the lower end of the income scale. Despite the regional economic boom, income inequality is on the rise with African American and Latinx families overrepresented among the lowest-earning households2. The poverty rate for African Americans is more than double the regional poverty rate.
This is exacerbated when adjusted for high housing costs. Rents continue to rise while wages have stagnated, deepening inequality.
Our ambitious innovation program, the East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) will leverage our key strengths – Life Sciences and Technology – that exist today in the Bay Area but have been predominantly absent from the community of color found in the East Bay. Our goal is to promote an equitable and inclusive growth strategy in the East Bay, engaging marginalized communities and creating opportunities through comprehensive educational, workforce development, mobility and human infrastructure initiatives. We will do so by implementing the principles of “Leadership in Enhancing Equitable Participation” (LEEP).
LEEP engages in practices that engineer equity from the ground up. The goal of LEEP is to “help foster a more equitable and socially responsible real estate development landscape; one where local communities can benefit from and shape how their regions feel. Creating a trusted standard of practice and certification platform will allow all to do good while doing well.” While targeted for the real estate industry, key Members of the EBiC coalition are in the early stages of developing the LEEP initiative. The official LEEP nonprofit organization has been recently formed and we intend for the EBiC to serve as a pilot – and an early example of the benefits of adopting state-of-the-art equity practices. We will measure and document the results of the pilot.
LEEP will help ensure that equitable-development outcomes are attainable and accessible to underserved communities of color. To facilitate this objective, the program will offer project partners a variety of (currently available and to be developed) tools and resources across the broad spectrum of development activities. Over the next several years, the program is generally intended to establish:
A. A comprehensive, and curated, set of guidelines and best practices (i.e., the means and methods) for achieving equitable development outcomes; and B. A nationally recognized Rating and Certification process that effectively communicates a project’s implementation of socially responsible development practices (e.g., Bronze, Gold, Silver, Platinum, etc.).
The key areas of focus of LEEP certification will include:
a) Employment and Career Development for under-represented populations; b) Small Business Utilization;
1 PwC CLSA 2020 California Life Sciences Sector Report
2Mendiola, Ángel and Treuhaft, Ross and Sarah. Who is Low-Income and Very Low Income in the Bay Area?, Bay Area Equity Atlas, September 21, 2020 B48
October 19, 2021 EDA ARPA BBBRC Application – East Bay Innovation Cluster (EBiC) 18 c) Ownership of businesses and/or real estate assets (with a focus on achieving greater intergenerational wealth creation and transfer)
d) Workforce Housing & Affordability
e) Environmental Sustainability
f) Mental & Physical Health and Well-Being,
LEEP PROGRAMATIC MEANS AND METHODOLOGY:
1. Early Community Outreach: LEEP project organizers will adopt and contribute resources for undertaking early and ongoing community outreach through every stage of a project. The outreach process will solicit early community feedback which is taken into consideration as development strategies and project designs are formulated. The outreach process will also serve to; a) clearly articulate the LEEP projects’ social equity goals, b) familiarize the community with the project’s design/engineering/financial specifications; c) advise of business and career opportunities associated with the project, and d) solicit feedback on, and support for, the planned strategies for meeting the social equity goals.
2. Training and Education: LEEP project participants leverage their respective, and combined, large-scale project opportunities to provide diverse communities with access to educational resources for vocational/professional training. Equity recipients will have the best chance to take full advantage of life-changing opportunities to meet and exceed their personal and business goals.
3. Funding Support: Successful implementation of the Engineering Equity initiative requires both identifying and securing funding resources. However, adoption of LEEP initiative practices will also serve as a “lightning rod” to attract community-building social-equity capital such as, grants, New Markets Tax Credits, Opportunity Zone Tax Credits, Cap & Trade Funding, Enhanced Infrastructure Finance District (EIFD), etc. LEEP project sponsors will develop plans, and provide resources, to identify and analyze available funding sources.
4. Transactional Structuring: The success and sustainability of a LEEP initiative requires the thoughtful consideration and inclusion of community-oriented objectives while structuring the various contractual and financing transactions associated with the project enterprise. When intentionally conceived, creatively structured, and properly implemented, community-oriented equity participation policies and objectives do not financially burden projects, but indeed – become tools that generate enhanced financial value and equitable participation.
5. Technology Deployment: Developing large-scale, state-of-the-art facilities involves the utilization (and often pilot- deployment) of cutting-edge technology during the building design, construction, and operational cycle. The deployment of these technologies on, and within, large-scale development projects provide numerous gateway career/employment opportunities for local residents and historically underutilized small businesses. LEEP projects will ultimately incentivize specific measures to support making cutting-edge technologies accessible to underutilized workers and businesses.
The EBiC team believes the LEEP approach is a tool for reaching populations who are historically excluded from the economic success so prevalent in the Bay Area. Our vision is uniquely positioned to create the connectivity and conditions for long term economic benefits emerging from high paying positions found in existing and emerging technologies. We will use this opportunity to leapfrog other cities and establish the East Bay as a leading innovation growth cluster and an equity attainment national model for others to follow.
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APPENDIX B
Advanced Manufacturing as an Engine for Equity and Wealth Building along the Northern Waterfront communities of
Contra Costa County
Application for Build Back Better Regional Challenge
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CoCoCo Build Back Better Regional Challenge (BBBRC) - Draft Concept Paper v4
9.30.2021
Title:
Advanced Manufacturing as an Engine for Equity and Wealth Building along the Northern Waterfront communities of Contra Costa County
Introduction:
The Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative TM is a regional cluster -based economic development strategy with the goals of creating more good jobs closer to home for residents, while revitalizing older industrial areas and reinvigorating legacy industries. The Initiative leverages existing competitive advantages and assets by focusing on production in five targeted clusters ( Advanced Manufacturing, Biosciences, Agriscience & Specialty Foods, Transportation Technologies, Clean Tech). The initiative is a collaboration between the County and seven partner cities, who work together on diverse actions to enhance the economic vitality of the region. The eight partners have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to implement the Initiative as a team. The Initiative has been formalized in a Strategic Action Plan, adopted by the County Board of Supervisors in 2019. This grant proposal implements the Strategic Action Plan.
Rationale:
This Build Back Better Regional Challenge grant seeks to boost the opportunities for disadvantaged communities and residents, particularly those disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Northern Waterfront communities contain census tracts identified as SB1000 communities and Opportunity Zones (previously designated areas of concern targeted for investment) . Building upon this multi-jurisdictionally approved framework, while incorporating a pandemic recognition that we can do better, and utilizing commitments from across the private-public and civic sectors , this grant will bring together additionally and timely federal stimulus funding and a required stimulus council for the purposes of accelerating development projects which tackle l ong-term economic distress , invest in raci al justice and equity in historically disadvantaged communities along the Northern Waterfront.
Organization:
The Department of Conservation and Development (DCD) is the planning and permitting agency for unincorporated Contra Costa County , and serves a co ordinating role for economic development, affordable housing, and community investment countywide . DCD staff will serve as the grant lead and primary point of contact.
Project Description:
Identify compelling industrial development projects within the foo tprint and economic development framework of the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative TM. These projects should have broad-base support, environmental and historical documents in hand, and incorporate the ability to quickly galvanize the community around four tentpoles of: establish a green economy, tackle climate change, advance racial equity, and restore our global competitiveness.
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CoCoCo Build Back Better Regional Challenge (BBBRC) - Draft Concept Paper v4
9.30.2021
The identified projects are taken from the existing, approved Strategic Action Plan (SAP), except for the analytic data update – which the need is, of course, an outcome of the pandemic . The SAP and Northern Waterfront MOU were completed in 2019, just before onset of the pandemic, and have needed an influx of resources to regroup and reignite the partnership in the wake of the changing business landscape.
The Build Back Better Regional Challenge grant will serve that catalyst role, directly serving Objectives and Action Items in the SAP supporting three of the target industries: Bioscience, Transportation Technologies, and Advanced Manufacturing. These three are deliberately selected to be the targets for the B uild Back Better Regional Challenge grant because they are the most in need of a boost coming out of pandemic conditions, and least resourced from other funding streams.
Budget:
The total cost of Phase One of the Northern Waterfront Build Back Better Regional Challenge grant proposal is projected to be $500,000 for technical assistance in four areas, which will cover:
• Support business development efforts aimed at growing the Advanced Manufacturing cluster through the acquisition of up-to-date business and industry data reflecting post - pandemic conditions (Action 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 3.1.1., and 5.1.3): $100,000 • Conduct a Bioscience incubator feasibility study on County -owned land in Hercules (Action 4.1.1): $100,000
• Develop a Regional Northern Waterfront target industry-orientated marketing materials including unified website, branding, and collateral (Actions 5.1.1 and 5.1.2): $150,000 • Advance transportation technology cluster support at one or both of two sites in the Northern Waterfront area to foster an environment that can retain and attract this cluster in future regional development: GoMentum Station (privately owned vehicle technology testing site) on the Concord Naval Weapons Station (CNWS) and Buchanan Airport (publicly owned commercial airport with aviation technology space available) (Actions 1.1.2 and 4.1.2): $150,000
Summary:
Northern Waterfront Economic Development InitiativeTM is a private -public-civic sector led initiative aimed at spurring bottom-up economic rejuvenation and revitalization focused on the emerging industrial clusters of the future, while concentrating the tangible socio -economic benefits for long-time residents of the communities along the 55-mile Northern Waterfront that are experiencing disproportionate job loss, economic underinvestment, and excessive commute times.
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APPENDIX C
Description of City of Santa Monica’s
Development Agreement / “Value Capture” Practices
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FHWA Value Capture Webinar
March 24, 2021
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Santa Monica Context - DAs
• City of Santa Monica
• Development Agreements approved since 1981
• Over 40 DAs, last approval Sept 2020, two pending 2021 • DAs as a community development tool
• Why, Who, How, What to Keep in Mind
• Opportunities and challenges for smaller cities
• Project types
• Larger scale office campus: ~1M SF (early years)
• Office and hotel development
• Private school and church expansion
• Hospital campus rebuild/expansion
• Biotech
• Housing projects, all sizes
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• Established by California law (Gov’t Code § 65864 – 65869.5) • Negotiated contract between City and Applicant
• Legislative Act – broad discretion
• Vested right for developer
• Individually negotiated, not precedent setting
• Shared outcomes – strategic negotiation
• General Plan/Specific Plan consistency
• Voluntary
• No need to establish nexus or rough proportionality between community benefits and project, within limits
• Tailor community benefits
• Suit location, context, development proposal
• Range and magnitude of benefits varies by project
• Informed by community values/priorities
What is a DA?
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Project Characteristics By-Right Discretionary DA
Zoning Code Technical Review X X X
Public Process (Community Mtgs, Public Hearings) X X
Environmental Review X X
Community Benefits – broad range Voluntary X
Ground Level Open Space X
Coordination between properties X
TDM Programs Limited Limited X
Transit or Infrastructure Improvements X
Exceed Zoning Development Standards Limited X
Building Mass and Scale Limited X
Building Design, Colors, Materials X X X
Why Pursue a DA?
• Provides highest level of community control over projects B57
• Who will lead negotiations, set direction, project manage? • Negotiating on behalf of City Council, community
• Technical expertise – project review
• Policy depth
• Political awareness
• Negotiation skills
• Consider strengths: should be well-suited for lengthy, intense process • City team
• Project Manager (Santa Monica: City Planning Division) • City Attorney representative (land use law/CEQA, negotiations, contracts) • Internal review groups: PW, Community Services, Sustainability, Mobility • Environmental consultant
• Fiscal/economic consultant
• Applicant team
• Level of interaction will vary based on City/Agency’s culture and approach • High level of interaction in Santa Monica
Who Should be Involved?
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• Shape project proposal
• Applicant’s project concept + City’s land use policies • What mix of uses and where?
• Project value + community benefits
• What development parameters will be considered via DA? • Santa Monica has been focused on building height & density • Early community feedback
• Anticipate potential controversy, city staff & applicant must make meaningful adjustments during early and later stages of review • Seek Council authorization to proceed with negotiations • Expect significant, comprehensive project review - multiple rounds:
• site planning, design, historic preservation, mobility, public works utilities/engineering, sustainability
How to Start Negotiations
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• Start with baseline requirements
• General Plan/Specific Plan priorities
• Impact fees & code
• Inclusionary housing
• Starting points for negotiations
not requirements, will need to weigh trade-offs
• Identify other community priorities
• Difficult-to-fund infrastructure
• Programs that impact fees do not fund
(e.g., child care facilities vs. child care subsidies)
• Unmet community needs
• Current needs for Santa Monica in 2020-2021 & beyond, include:
addressing economic recovery, affordable housing, homelessness How to Identify Community
Benefits
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• Affordable Housing
On-site/off-site above base requirement
• Congestion Management
New vehicle, ped, bike linkages
Land dedications
Transp. Infrastructure contribution
Enhanced TDM programs
Bicycle facilities
Shared parking
• Historic Preservation
• Social/Health Services: in-kind & grants
• Sustainability
EV chargers & stub outs
LEED Platinum or equivalent
Solar and Purple Pipe
Rainwater/grey water capture/re-use
Community Benefit Examples
• Child Care
Tuition or operating subsidies
Physical facility
• Arts Programming and Installations
• Open Space
Public park
Publicly-accessible private open space
Wider sidewalks, courtyards, landscaping
• Education and Training
Internships & job training programs
First Source Hiring
Economic equity funds
• Enhanced revenue/tax payments
• Community meeting space
• Community programming
• Wi-Fi access for seniors
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• Be clear about what value project creates
• Consider value of additional development potential (vested rights and/or bigger development envelope) vs. project’s overall value to City • Prioritize & address community needs
• Set by community, decision-makers, land use policy/plans • Have realistic expectations about magnitude of benefits • Combine financing mechanisms and individually-negotiated DAs to achieve City’s overall vision
• e.g., new light rail station upgrades, new streets
• Term of community benefit obligations vs. term of DA
• Use economic analyses to inform decisions
• Expect to spend substantial time on this step
• Complex analysis; data collection, vet assumptions/metrics with applicant How to Evaluate Community
Benefits
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• Fiscal Impact Analysis & Economic Impact Analysis
• Value Enhancement Analysis – Santa Monica customized to inform negotiations • assess ‘value’ of additional development potential derived from DA • Feasibility Analysis – Project + community benefits vs. cost and reasonable rate of return • Regardless of measurement technique, a project is feasible, or achieves enhanced value, only if completed project value exceeds development costs
Economic Analyses
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• Mixed-Use Hotel, Retail, Residential Project
• Redevelop existing hotel on 4.5-acre site
• ~506,000 SF above grade, ~240,000 SF net new
• Up to 130’ tall building, varying heights
• 2.6 FAR
• Area Plan: DA requirement for up to 130’ and 3.0 FAR
• 312 hotel guest rooms (11 net new)
• Preserve two Landmark features (tree and building)
• New food/bev space, meeting/banquet space, spa/fitness, retail • 60 for-sale residential condominium units
• 14,000 SF publicly-accessible open space
• ~428 parking spaces in on-site subterranean garage
• Funding and land for 42 deed-restricted affordable apartments Case Study DA
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Santa Monica Context
Public Review Process – smaller/less controversial projects do not take as long 2011-2012
• April 2011
DA submitted
• June 2011
Community
Meeting
• Feb 2012
Planning
Commission
Float-Ups
• April 2012
Council Float Up
2013-2014 2015-2016 2017-2018 2019-2020
• February 2013
Revised design
submitted
• May 2013
CEQA NOP & EIR
Scoping Meeting
• Project review
on hold pending
adoption of
Downtown
Community Plan
(DCP)
• July 2017
DCP adopted
with Established
Large Sites for
three Downtown
parcels
• February 2018
Revised project
design submitted
• July 2018
Recirc. NOP EIR
Scoping Meeting
• March 2019
Landmarks Commission
• April 2019
ARB courtesy review
• February – May 2020
Draft EIR public review
• September 2-9, 2020
Planning Commission
• September 29, 2020
City Council hearing
Project Review Community Benefit
Negotiations
Case Study DA - Project Timeline
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Case Study DA – Community Benefits Value
Community Benefits - Enhanced Fees/Contributions Negotiated Amount Base Fee per Code Incremental Enhancement Affordable Housing Commercial Linkage Fee Contribution $770,000 $440,000 $330,000 Enhanced Transportation Infrastructure Contribution $1,400,000 $890,000 $510,000 Reed Park Ambassadors Program Contribution $200,000 $0 $200,000 Affordable Lodging Contribution $75,000 $0 $75,000
Parks and Recreation Contribution $250,000 $880,000 $0
Early Childhood Initiatives Contribution $1,350,000 $1,350,000 $0 Economic Equity/Opportunity Fund Contribution $550,000 $0 $550,000 Historic Preservation Palisades Park Contribution $50,000 $0 $50,000 Total $4,645,000 $3,560,000 $1,715,000
Community Benefits - Other Monetized Items
With 9% TCAC Gap
Financing
With 4% TCAC Gap
Financing
Without TCAC Financing
Affordable Housing - 2nd Street Land Value $12,750,000 $12,750,000 $12,750,000 Minimum 42 units - gap financing $3,041,000 $14,720,000 $27,550,000 Affordable Housing - Services $10,000/yr @ 55 years $550,000 $550,000 $550,000 Affordable Housing - Transportation Passes @ 55 years TBD TBD TBD Publicly-Accessible Open Space - direct costs* $752,000 $752,000 $752,000 Public Art - minimum $750,000 value $750,000 $750,000 $750,000 Historic Preservation - direct costs $11,600,000 $11,600,000 $11,600,000 Historic Preservation - Interpretive Feature TBD TBD TBD Community Support - meeting space/other discounts
$25,000 value @ 55 years $1,375,000 $1,375,000 $1,375,000 Sustainability - on-site capture/reuse water systems $2,100,000 $2,100,000 $2,100,000 Total $32,918,000 $44,597,000 $57,427,000
Total Value - Monetized Community Benefits $37,563,000 $49,242,000 $62,072,000 B66
• Managing development interest
• Flexibility due to case-by-case review/negotiation
• Adaptable over time, development standards tailored for each site Policy Considerations:
• Flexibility = lack of predictability for developers and community • How to prioritize project types
(e.g., housing for whom – unit mix, affordability? Hotel? Office? How much retail?) • Which community benefits – at what magnitude to justify increased height/FAR? • Seek decision-maker and community input
• Use whole city/organization’s expertise, seek outside support for specific areas • Staff’s best judgement in negotiations
Policy Considerations:
• Effectiveness of outreach process – how to improve?
• How to ensure community benefits address needs of underserved and underrepresented communities?
• How to respond to changing community priorities?
Key Points & Policy Considerations
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• Complex economic analyses
• May dominate discussion at public hearings; analysis will be disputed • do not spend all your time defending the numbers
Policy Considerations:
• How much should feasibility analysis matter? Value to community and developer doesn’t always translate to dollars/revenue
• Time-consuming process
• Intense, lengthy process: do not lose sight of shared outcomes • Negotiate best deal on community’s behalf; remember both parties must agree on terms • Controversial projects may be litigated
Policy Considerations:
• Is there a more equitable, predictable, easily-administered alternative to DAs? • Monitoring
• Demonstrate ‘good faith compliance’ annually; recoup costs for staff time • Transparency, maintain community trust in process
Key Points & Policy Considerations
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Thank you!
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APPENDIX D
City of Carson EIFD
Infrastructure Financing Plan
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CITY OF CARSON ENHANCED INFRASTRUCTURE
FINANCING DISTRICT
INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING PLAN
APRIL 2022
Prepared By:
Prepared For:
The City of Carson and the County of Los Angeles
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Table of Contents
Section Page
1.0 Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 3
2.0 Description of the Proposed District ................................ ................................ .................... 7
3.0 Description of Proposed Facilities and Development ................................ .......................... 8
4.0 Finding of Communitywide Significance ................................ ................................ ........... 14
5.0 Financing Section ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 15
6.0 Removal of Dwelling Units and Replacement Housing Plan ................................ ............. 21
7.0 Goals of the District ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 22
8.0 Appendices ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 23 Index of Appendices
Appendix A: Map of Boundaries of the Carson EIFD
Appendix B: Legal Description of the Carson EIFD
Appendix C: Projected Tax Increment Revenue Analysis
Appendix D: Fiscal Impact Analysis
Appendix E: General Plan Environmental Impact Report
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1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background & Purpose
The proposed Carson Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (“Carson EIFD” or “District”) will serve as a catalyst for private development and critical regional infrastructure with transformative potential for the City of Carson (“City”) and the South Bay region of Los Angeles County (“County”). The Carson EIFD encompasses approximately 1,735 acres of land, representing approximately 14% of the City’s total approximately 12,141 acres. The Carson EIFD includes the City’s Vision Plan area, the Civic Center area, the campus of California State Dominguez Hills (“CSUDH”), and various other targeted opportunity site areas within the City that stand to benefit from catalytic infrastructure improvements with communitywide and regional benefit. The District represents a partnership between the City and the County, and as such, will be funded by property tax increment from both taxing entities.
1.2 Contents and Overview of this Infrastructure Financing Plan (“IFP”) Pursuant to Government Code Sections 53398.59 through 53398.74, this IFP comprises the following information:
a) A map and legal description of the District, included herein as Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively.
b) A description of the public facilities and other forms of development or financial assistance that is proposed in the area of the district, including those to be provided by the private sector, those to be provided by governmental entities without assistance under this chapter, those public improvements and facilities to be financed with assistance from the proposed district, and those to be provided jointly. The description shall include the proposed location, timing, and costs of the development and financial assistance. This information is included in Section 3 of this IFP.
c) If funding from affected taxing entities is incorporated into the financing plan, a finding that the development and financial assistance are of communitywide significance and provide significant benefits to an area larger than the area of the district. This information is included in Section 4 of this IFP.
d) A financing section (included in Section 5 of this IFP) , which shall contain all of the following information:
a. A specification of the maximum portion of the incremental tax revenue of the city or county and of each affected taxing entity proposed to be committed to the district for each year during which the district will receive incremental tax revenue.
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The portion need not be the same for all affected taxing entities. The portion may change over time. The maximum portion of the City’s property tax increment to be committed to the District will be 52% throughout the duration of the District lifetime.
For the County, the maximum portion of the County’s property tax increment to be committed to the District will be 25% throughout duration of the District lifetime, which is projected to be forty five (45) years from the date on which the first issuance of bonds or acquisition of a loan is approved by the Public Financing Authority (“PFA”).
b. A projection of the amount of tax revenues expected to be received by the district in each year during which the district will receive tax revenues, including an estimate of the amount of tax revenues attributable to each affected taxing entity for each year. Section 5.3 of this IFP includes a projection of tax revenues to be received by the District by year over the course of forty five (45) years from the date on which the first issuance of bonds or acquisition of a loan is approved by the PFA. These projections are based on research and analysis of available data at the time of IFP preparation for purposes of illustration. Actual results may differ from those expressed in this document. Appendix C provides additional detail for the projected revenue analysis.
c. A plan for financing the public facilities to be assisted by the district, including a detailed description of any intention to incur debt. Section 5.4 of this IFP includes a plan for financing the public facilities to be assisted by the District. The PFA governing the District intends to incur debt only when it is financially prudent to do so. It is estimated at this time that the EIFD will c ontribute approximately $134 million (in present value dollars) to public improvements and affordable housing projects from a combination of bond or loan proceeds (multiple issuances may be necessary) and pay-as-you-go funding over the District lifetime. This is equivalent to approximately $313 million (nominal dollars).
d. A limit on the total number of dollars of taxes that may be allocated to the district pursuant to the plan. The total number of dollars or taxes that may be allocated to the District shall not exceed $313,000,000 (nominal dollars). This represents a maximum allocation of $156,500,000 from the City and $1 56,500,000 from the County over the District lifetime (nominal dollars).
e. A date on which the district will cease to exist, by which time all tax allocation to the district will end. The date shall not be more than 45 years from the date on which the issuance of bonds is approved pursuant to subdivision (a) of Section 53398.81, or the issuance of a loan is approved by the governing board of a local agency pursuant to Section 53398.87. The District will cease to exist the earlier of: (i) forty five (45) years from the date on which the first issuance of bonds or acquisition of a loan is approved by the PFA, or (ii) June 30, 20 99. This IFP B74
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assumes that the District will be formed in Fiscal Yea r 2021-2022 and will begin receiving tax revenues in Fiscal Year 2022-2023.
f. An analysis of the costs to the city or county of providing facilities and services to the area of the district while the area is being developed and after the area is developed. The plan sh all also include an analysis of the tax, fee, charge, and other revenues expected to be received by the city or county as a result of expected development in the area of the district. Appendix D to this IFP includes, as part of the Fiscal Impact Analysis , an analysis of the costs to the City and County for providing facilities and services to the area of the District. It is estimated that, at Year 20 of the District lifetime (assumed stabilized buildout of District area), annual costs to the City will be approximately $14.2 million, and annual costs to the County will be approximately $7.6 million to service the area of the District. g. An analysis of the projected fiscal impact of the district and the associated development upon each affected taxing entity. Appendix D to this IFP includes an analysis of the projected fiscal impact of the District and the associated development upon both the City and the County, as the only two affected taxing entities that are contributing tax increment revenues to the District. It is estimated that, at Year 20 of the District lifetime, the District area will generate an annual net fiscal surplus of $3.0 million to the City and an annual net fiscal surplus of $ 22.4 million to the County.
h. A plan for financing any potential costs that may be incurred by reimbursing a developer of a project that is both located entirely within the boundaries of that district and qualifies for the Transit Priority Project Program, pursuant to Section 65470, including any permit and af fordable housing expenses related to the project. At this time, t he PFA does not intend to finance any potential costs that may be incurred by reimbursing a developer of a project that is both located entirely within the boundaries of the District and qual ifies for the Transit Priority Project Program, pursuant to Section 65470.
e) If any dwelling units within the territory of the district are proposed to be removed or destroyed in the course of public works construction within the area of the district or private development within the area of the district that is subject to a written agreement with the district or that is financed in whole or in part by the district, a plan providing for replacement of those units and relocation of those persons or families consistent with the requirements of Section 53398.56. The PFA does not anticipate that any housing units will be removed as a result of any project identified in this IFP. However, if any relocation of dwelling units is deemed to be required in the future for a project financed by the District, the PFA will comply with the requirements of Government Code Section 53398.56.
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f) The goals the district proposes to achieve for each project financed pursuant to Section 53398.52. Section 7 of this IFP summarizes the goals of each project to be financed by the District.
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2.0 Description of the Proposed District
The Carson EIFD encompasses approximately 1,735 acres of land, representing approximately 14% of the City’s total 12,141 acres. The Carson EIFD includes the City’s Vision Plan area, the Civic Center area, the campus of CSUDH, and various other targeted opportunity site areas within the City that stand to benefit from catalytic infrastructure improvements with communitywide and regional benefit.
Land use designations in the District primarily include industrial and residential uses, and to a lesser extent, retail, office, and recreational designations. The EIFD includes a significant amount of former landfill property with potentia l for remediation and future development. Appendix A includes a map of the proposed District, and Appendix B is a legal description of the District.
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3.0 Description of Proposed Facilities
and Development
3.1 Anticipated Future Private Development
Anticipated future private development is summarized in Table 1 below , anticipated to occur across the Vision Plan area, Civic Center area, the CSUDH campus, and other targeted opportunity site areas as identified on the map in Appendix A . Buildout and absorption of these land uses are forecasted in the first 20 years of the District lifetime.
Table 1: Anticipated Future Private Development
Development Type SF / Units AV Per SF / Unit Estimated AV at Buildout (2022$)
Rental Residential 2,619 units $300,000 per unit $785,700,000 For Sale Residential 662 units $400,000 per unit $264,800,000 Commercial / Retail 965,348 SF $285 PSF $275,124,180
Office 780,000 SF $225 PSF $175,500,000
Hotel 118 rooms $200,000 per room $23,600,000
Recreational 598,500 SF $350 PSF $209,475,000
Industrial 5,632,961 SF $160 PSF $901,273,760
Estimated Total $2,635,472,940
3.2 Public Facilities to be Financed with Assistance from the Carson EIFD The PFA intends to utilize the District to contribute approximately $134 million (in present value dollars) of funding to infrastructure and affordable housing projects of communitywide and regional significance over the District lifetime. This is equivalent to approximately $3 13 million (nominal dollars). Table 2 outlines an estimate of anticipated EIFD budget allocation over the District’s lifetime.
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Table 2: Estimated EIFD Funding Allocation
# PROJECT ESTIMATED
ALLOCATION
ESTIMATED
TIMING
1 Affordable Housing Development in Carson
(20% Minimum County Requirement) $26,800,000 Year 1 to Year 50 2 Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation
and Infrastructure Projects $10,000,000 Year 1 to Year 20 (up to $10,000,000)
3* Brownfield Site Remediation $10,000,000 to
$75,000,000 Year 1 to Year 50
4* Park and Recreational Development $5,000,000 to
$15,000,000 Year 10 to Year 50
5* Dominguez Channel / Bicycle Master Plan
Improvements / Pedestrian Networks
$2,500,000 to
$5,000,000 Year 15 to Year 50
6* Future City Street / Road Improvements and
Other Infrastructure
$10,000,000 to
$30,000,000 Year 15 to Year 50
7* Commercial Façade Program $2,500,000 to
$5,000,000 Year 15 to Year 50
Estimated Total EIFD Budget Allocation $134,000,000 (present value dollars)
*The above conceptual budget provides a snapshot of current infrastructure needs and may be modified by City Council recommendations or County Board of Supervisors recommendations and approval by the PFA. Funds may be adjusted depending on future needs, pr oject costs, and/or funding availability from other sources. No funds shall be used to support ongoing operations of oil refinery activities.
(5) Affordable Housing Projects: The EIFD will implement a 20% affordable housing set-aside for the acquisition, construction, or rehabilitation of housing for persons of very low, low, and moderate income, as defined in Sections 50105 and 50093 of the Health and Safety Code, for rent or purchase in the City. The PFA will coordinate with the Carson Housing Authority for implementation and administration of these funds and projects subject to the approval of the City Council . The sequence in which EIFD revenues shall be allocated annually shall prioritize this affordable housing set-aside as the first priority. The PFA may additionally elect to coordinate with the County of Los Angeles Affordable Housing Trust Fund or another entity as an alternative or in addition to the Carson Housing Authority for the acquisition, construction, or rehabilitation of affordable housing in the City, subject to B79
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the approval of the City of Carson City Council. Funds dedicated to these projects will be tracked and delineated specifically in the required annual reporting for the EIFD. (2) Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects 1: Certain on -site infrastructure and remediation projects for development of th e Victoria Golf Course property pursuant to the project list agreed upon in advance by City and County (the “Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects”). After the allocation of the affordable housing set-aside, fifty percent (50%) of all annual EIFD revenues will be allocated to the Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects up to $10,000,000. Disbursement of funding for Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects shall be contingent on and commence from the receipt by The Creek at Dominguez Hills of the Remedial Action Completion Report by the Department of Toxics and Substance Control and shall be based on eligible costs incurred. The County and City have agreed to enter into an agreement describing various obligations should the ground lease of the Golf Course Property between Plenitude Holdings, LLC (“Plenitude”) and the County be terminated or the County enters into an agreement with another developer. If Plenitude pays for the costs of any Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects prior to the a vailability of EIFD funding, then Plenitude will be reimbursed such costs from EIFD funds once such funds become available, subject to the terms outlined above. If The Creek at Dominguez Hills or another vertical development on the Golf Course site explicitly agreed upon by the City and the County is not substantially completed by December 31, 2032, any funds remaining from the allocation outlined above shall be remitted back to the EIFD, and the EIFD will be released from any obligation related to the Victoria Golf Course property as described above, and such funds may be expended on projects mutually agreed to by the County and City other than the Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects. Funds dedicated to this project will be tracked and delineated specifically in the required annual reporting for the EIFD. The described funding obligation in this paragraph (2) may be adjusted or revised by agreement between the City and the County and still qualify for EIFD funding so long as the projects constitute infrastructure, housing and/or remediation projects described in this Section 3.0.
(3) Brownfield Site Remediation*: Provide funding or partial funding to clean up various project sites to leverage future development that could include but is not limited to the 157-Acre Carson Reclamation Properties. These projects will spur economic development to accelerate tax increment revenues to the Carson EIFD and separately to the County and City. Specific project(s) funding subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA. (4) Park and Recreational Development*: Develop a park within the city of Carson. Potential park development sites could include but is not limited to the 18 -acre Shell site and/or Sanitation 1 For the purposes of the PFA Bylaws, Victoria Golf Course Approved Remediation and Infrastructure Projects are to be considered “County Projects”.
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District new park site adjacent to Carriage Crest Park. Specific project funding subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA.
(5) Dominguez Channel Improvements / City’s Bicycle Master Plan/ Pedestrian Networks* :
Provide neighborhood connectivity (e.g., pedestrian and bicycle networks), create a continuous Riverwalk park / trail along the Dominguez Channel. Projects related to the City’s Bicycle Master Plan or General Plan would also be eligible under this category. Specific project(s) funding subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA. (6) Future City Street / Road Improvements and Other Infrastructure*: Installation, reconstruction, and beautification of various streets and roads within city of Carson , as well as new on -site and off-site infrastructure to support future project development (e.g., utilities, sidewalks, drainage).
Beautification amenities may include road/sidewalk installation / extension / repairs, wayfinding signs, streetlights, utility wraps, benches, street banners, art, and landscaping similar to the recent Carson Street Improv ement. Main Street could be a potential site for a beautification project.
Martin Luther King Jr. Street could also be a potential site for a road reconstruction project. It should be noted that County Board of Supervisors previously approved funding for Martin Luther King Jr. Street reconstruction via the approved Memorandum of Agreement among the City, the County and the Kimmelman Foundation for the proposed Carol Kimmelman Athletic and Academic Campus (CKAAC) dated July 2019 (Section II. C. Infrastructure Investments/Improvements).2 The Kimmelman Foundation, however, has since opted to not proceed with the CAAKC project. Accordingly, County funding is no longer available for this project. If another entity (e.g., City or County) advances t he funding for Martin Luther King Jr.
Street road improvements, that entity will be eligible for reimbursement from EIFD proceeds.
Other Improvements may also include intersection improvements to interchanges such as Avalon & I-405, construction of freewa y entrance along I -405 & Main Street, I -405 by Wilmington Blvd and/or other intersections. Other road improvements may be funded based on road conditions, subject to recommendations from the City Council and approval by PFA. (7) Commercial Façade Program*: Develop program(s) to financially assist local businesses and property owners with improvements to exterior facades or other beautification improvements (e.g., paint, signage). Specific project(s) funding subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA.
2 The Memorandum of Agreement provided that the County would fund the “Base Road Reconstruction” of Martin Luther King Jr. Road with an estimated cost of $4.5 million, additionally committing to payment of any cost overruns to complete the Base Road Reconstruction, which is no longer moving forward.
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Funds allocated under projects item numbers 3 through 7 may be reallocated to any eligible projects under the IFP and EIFD law based on future infrastructure needs. Specific project funding subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA.
The EIFD will not include funds to support ongoing operations of oil refinery activities.
Additional expenditures by the EIFD, including any use of potential future EIFD bond proceeds, will be subject to City Council recommendations and approval by the PFA. Targeted improvements would conform to established guidelines in existing, adopted plannin g documentation, such as the City General Plan. Eligible expenditures in accordance with Government code sections 53398.52 and 53398.56 include the purchase, const ruction, expansion, improvement, seismic retrofit, or rehabilitation of any real or other tangible property with an estimated useful life of 15 years or longer. The EIFD may finance planning and design activities that are directly related to the purchase, construction, expansion, or rehabilitation of these projects. Example projects may include, but not be limited to, the following:
a) Highways, interchanges, ramps and bridges, arterial streets, parking facilities, and transit facilities
b) Sewage treatment and water reclamation plants and interceptor pipes c) Facilities for the collection and treatment of water for urban uses d) Flood control levees and dams, retention basins, and drainage channels e) Childcare facilities, libraries, and other government facilities f) Parks, recreational facilities, and open space
g) Facilities for the transfer and disposal of solid waste, including transfer stations and vehicles
h) Brownfield restoration and other environmental mitigation i) The acquisition, construction, or rehabilitation of housing for persons of very low, low, and moderate income, as defined in Sections 50105 and 50093 of the Health and Safety Code, for rent or purchase
j) Projects that enable communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change, including, but not limited to, higher average temperatures, decreased air and water quality, the spread of infectious and vector -borne diseases, other public health impacts, extreme weather events, sea level rise, flooding, heat waves, wildfires, and drought k) The acquisition, construction, or improvement of broadband Internet access service l) Acquisition, construction, or repair of commercial structures by the small business occupant of such structures, if such acquisition, construction, or repair is for purposes of fostering economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and of ensuring the long-term economic sustainability of small businesses
m) Facilities in which nonprofit community organizations provide health, youth, homeless, and social services.
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The PFA intends to c ontinue to identify, evaluate, and pursue additional funding sources and financing mechanisms aside from District tax increment to implement the improvements identified above, potentially including grant sources, impact fees, private sector investment incentivized by the formation of the EIFD itself, and/or other sources. The City has already formed a Community Facilities District (“CFD”) with a Citywide annexation area for new and/or intensified development to assist with ongoing services and maintenance needs in the City.
Private sector developers will be responsible for funding project -specific / fair -share / in -tract infrastructure, unless otherwise outlined in this IFP. Some public facilities included in the EIFD area are anticipated to be provided by governmental entities without assistance from the District.
There are no public facilities anticipated to be provided jointly by the pr ivate s ector and governmental entities, however it is possible that private sector developers may advance funding for improvements such as brownfield site remediation, with anticipation to be partially reimbursed with EIFD proceeds. Such case-specific agreements would come before the PFA for approval at the appropriate time.
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4.0 Finding of Communitywide
Significance
Implementation of the District promotes the goals of the City’s General Plan, facilitates the cleanup and reuse of former landfill sites serving the larger County region, supports implementation of regional connectivity through active transportation, and facilitates the growth of a regional educational institution in CSUDH.
The District additionally supports numerous County economic development objectives, including job creation, workforce development, affordable housing, homeless prevention, improvement of quality of life, and promotion of environmental sustainability , all in an area predominantly designated as Disadvantaged Community (DAC) census tracts based on the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA) CalEnviroScreen tool (version 3.0).
Specific communitywide and regional benefits anticipated to be generated by the District include:
• $75 million in net fiscal surplus to the City over 50 years (on a present-value basis) • $529 million in net fiscal impact to County over 50 years (on a present -value basis) , including additional direct property tax revenue to County Fire and County Library • 3,281 housing units within the District , including aff ordable housing a multiple income levels
• 21,781 direct, indirect, and induced temporary, construction-related jobs in the City and County
• 9,349 direct, permanent jobs in the City
• 4,269 additional indirect and induced permanent jobs in the City and County (total of 14,349 direct, indirect, and induced jobs)
• $3.7 billion in economic output from construction in the City and County • $1.8 billion in annual ongoing economic output in the City and County.
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5.0 Financing Section
Projections included in this IFP are based on research and analysis of available data at the time of IFP for purposes of planning and illustration. Actual results may differ from those expressed in this document.
The Carson EIFD represents a partnership b etween the City and County, and as such, will be funded by property tax increment from both taxing entities . No other taxing entity is contributing property tax increment to the District. It is anticipated that property tax increment will be utilized on bo th a “pay -as-you-go” basis as well as security for tax increment bond issuance or loan acquisition.
Portions of the Carson EIFD are located within the boundaries of the former Redevelopment Project Area of the former Redevelopment Agency of Carson, and so p roperty tax revenues generated by the properties within the overlapping area will flow according to the Redevelopment Agency dissolution statutes until all of the Successor Agency’s obligations are retired (currently anticipated in 2041). Redevelopment Property Tax Trust Fund (“RPTTF”) residual revenues are intended to be contributed by the City and County to the District as part of the maximum allocations outlined in the following sections.
The analysis and projections herein reflect the City’s intention to dedicate incremental property tax revenue allocated to the City in lieu of motor vehicle license fees to the District pursuant to Government Code Section 53398.75€(1) in addition and in proportion to incremental AB8 property tax.
5.1 Maximum Portion of Incremental Tax Revenue Dedicated to the District The maximum portion of the City’s property tax increment to be committed to the District will be 52% throughout the District lifetime. The maximum portion of the County’s property tax increment to be committed to the District will be 25% throughout the District lifetime.
5.2 Projection of District Tax Revenues by Year
Table 3 provides an overview of the projected growth of assessed value, property tax increment, and City and County contributions to the District over the District lifetime. It is expected that a total of $156,266,930 of incremental tax revenues will be allocated to the District by the City, and a total of $156,266,930 of incremental tax revenues will be allocated to the District by the County, for a total allocation of taxes revenues to the EIFD of $ 312,533,860. Table 4 illustrates the accumulation of affordable housing set-side funding.
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Table 3: Projection of District Revenues by Year
Note: Present value at 3% discount rate.
Incremental
Assessed Value
Property Tax
Increment @
1% General
Levy
Average City
Share
Available
(AB8+VLF)
City
Increment
Available
Portion of
City Share
Allocated
City
Increment
Allocated
Average
County Share
Available
County
Increment
Available
Portion of
County Share
Allocated
County
Increment
Allocated
Total Taxes
Allocated to
EIFD
0 2021 / 2022 $0 $0 11.87% $0 52% $0 24.7% $0 25% $0 $0 1 2022 / 2023 $420,809,462 $4,208,095 11.87% $499,468 52% $259,639 24.7% $1,038,558 25% $259,639 $519,279 2 2023 / 2024 $953,315,091 $9,533,151 11.87% $1,131,511 52% $588,195 24.7% $2,352,782 25% $588,195 $1,176,391 3 2024 / 2025 $1,225,684,360 $12,256,844 11.87% $1,454,792 52% $756,247 24.7% $3,024,989 25% $756,247 $1,512,494 4 2025 / 2026 $1,588,758,230 $15,887,582 11.87% $1,885,733 52% $980,264 24.7% $3,921,055 25% $980,264 $1,960,528 5 2026 / 2027 $2,218,486,210 $22,184,862 11.87% $2,633,171 52% $1,368,806 24.7% $5,475,224 25% $1,368,806 $2,737,612 6 2027 / 2028 $2,432,710,118 $24,327,101 11.87% $2,887,439 52% $1,500,982 24.7% $6,003,929 25% $1,500,982 $3,001,964 7 2028 / 2029 $2,609,863,141 $26,098,631 11.87% $3,097,705 52% $1,610,286 24.7% $6,441,142 25% $1,610,286 $3,220,571 8 2029 / 2030 $2,851,182,832 $28,511,828 11.87% $3,384,133 52% $1,759,180 24.7% $7,036,719 25% $1,759,180 $3,518,360 9 2030 / 2031 $3,009,340,228 $30,093,402 11.87% $3,571,854 52% $1,856,763 24.7% $7,427,052 25% $1,856,763 $3,713,526 10 2031 / 2032 $3,172,336,888 $31,723,369 11.87% $3,765,318 52% $1,957,332 24.7% $7,829,327 25% $1,957,332 $3,914,664 11 2032 / 2033 $3,397,374,003 $33,973,740 11.87% $4,032,420 52% $2,096,180 24.7% $8,384,719 25% $2,096,180 $4,192,360 12 2033 / 2034 $3,608,452,600 $36,084,526 11.87% $4,282,954 52% $2,226,415 24.7% $8,905,661 25% $2,226,415 $4,452,831 13 2034 / 2035 $3,721,106,377 $37,211,064 11.87% $4,416,665 52% $2,295,923 24.7% $9,183,691 25% $2,295,923 $4,591,845 14 2035 / 2036 $3,836,476,366 $38,364,764 11.87% $4,553,600 52% $2,367,106 24.7% $9,468,424 25% $2,367,106 $4,734,212 15 2036 / 2037 $3,930,533,765 $39,305,338 11.87% $4,665,239 52% $2,425,139 24.7% $9,700,557 25% $2,425,139 $4,850,279 16 2037 / 2038 $4,026,472,313 $40,264,723 11.87% $4,779,111 52% $2,484,333 24.7% $9,937,334 25% $2,484,333 $4,968,667 17 2038 / 2039 $4,124,329,632 $41,243,296 11.87% $4,895,260 52% $2,544,711 24.7% $10,178,846 25% $2,544,711 $5,089,423 18 2039 / 2040 $4,224,144,097 $42,241,441 11.87% $5,013,732 52% $2,606,297 24.7% $10,425,188 25% $2,606,297 $5,212,594 19 2040 / 2041 $4,325,954,851 $43,259,549 11.87% $5,134,573 52% $2,669,114 24.7% $10,676,457 25% $2,669,114 $5,338,228 20 2041 / 2042 $4,429,801,820 $44,298,018 11.87% $5,257,832 52% $2,733,188 24.7% $10,932,751 25% $2,733,188 $5,466,375 21 2042 / 2043 $4,535,725,729 $45,357,257 11.87% $5,383,555 52% $2,798,543 24.7% $11,194,171 25% $2,798,543 $5,597,086 22 2043 / 2044 $4,643,768,116 $46,437,681 11.87% $5,511,793 52% $2,865,205 24.7% $11,460,820 25% $2,865,205 $5,730,410 23 2044 / 2045 $4,753,971,351 $47,539,714 11.87% $5,642,596 52% $2,933,200 24.7% $11,732,801 25% $2,933,200 $5,866,401 24 2045 / 2046 $4,866,378,650 $48,663,787 11.87% $5,776,015 52% $3,002,556 24.7% $12,010,223 25% $3,002,556 $6,005,111 25 2046 / 2047 $4,981,034,096 $49,810,341 11.87% $5,912,102 52% $3,073,298 24.7% $12,293,192 25% $3,073,298 $6,146,596 26 2047 / 2048 $5,097,982,650 $50,979,826 11.87% $6,050,911 52% $3,145,455 24.7% $12,581,821 25% $3,145,455 $6,290,911 27 2048 / 2049 $5,217,270,175 $52,172,702 11.87% $6,192,496 52% $3,219,056 24.7% $12,876,223 25% $3,219,056 $6,438,111 28 2049 / 2050 $5,338,943,451 $53,389,435 11.87% $6,336,912 52% $3,294,128 24.7% $13,176,512 25% $3,294,128 $6,588,256 29 2050 / 2051 $5,463,050,192 $54,630,502 11.87% $6,484,218 52% $3,370,702 24.7% $13,482,808 25% $3,370,702 $6,741,404 30 2051 / 2052 $5,589,639,069 $55,896,391 11.87% $6,634,469 52% $3,448,807 24.7% $13,795,229 25% $3,448,807 $6,897,615 31 2052 / 2053 $5,718,759,722 $57,187,597 11.87% $6,787,725 52% $3,528,475 24.7% $14,113,899 25% $3,528,475 $7,056,949 32 2053 / 2054 $5,850,462,789 $58,504,628 11.87% $6,944,046 52% $3,609,736 24.7% $14,438,942 25% $3,609,736 $7,219,471 33 2054 / 2055 $5,984,799,917 $59,847,999 11.87% $7,103,494 52% $3,692,622 24.7% $14,770,486 25% $3,692,622 $7,385,243 34 2055 / 2056 $6,121,823,788 $61,218,238 11.87% $7,266,131 52% $3,777,165 24.7% $15,108,661 25% $3,777,165 $7,554,331 35 2056 / 2057 $6,261,588,136 $62,615,881 11.87% $7,432,020 52% $3,863,400 24.7% $15,453,600 25% $3,863,400 $7,726,800 36 2057 / 2058 $6,404,147,771 $64,041,478 11.87% $7,601,227 52% $3,951,359 24.7% $15,805,437 25% $3,951,359 $7,902,718 37 2058 / 2059 $6,549,558,599 $65,495,586 11.87% $7,773,819 52% $4,041,078 24.7% $16,164,311 25% $4,041,078 $8,082,155 38 2059 / 2060 $6,697,877,643 $66,978,776 11.87% $7,949,862 52% $4,132,590 24.7% $16,530,362 25% $4,132,591 $8,265,181 39 2060 / 2061 $6,849,163,069 $68,491,631 11.87% $8,129,426 52% $4,225,934 24.7% $16,903,734 25% $4,225,934 $8,451,867 40 2061 / 2062 $7,003,474,202 $70,034,742 11.87% $8,312,582 52% $4,321,144 24.7% $17,284,574 25% $4,321,144 $8,642,287 41 2062 / 2063 $7,160,871,559 $71,608,716 11.87% $8,499,400 52% $4,418,258 24.7% $17,673,031 25% $4,418,258 $8,836,515 42 2063 / 2064 $7,321,416,862 $73,214,169 11.87% $8,689,955 52% $4,517,314 24.7% $18,069,257 25% $4,517,314 $9,034,628 43 2064 / 2065 $7,485,173,072 $74,851,731 11.87% $8,884,321 52% $4,618,352 24.7% $18,473,407 25% $4,618,352 $9,236,704 44 2065 / 2066 $7,652,204,406 $76,522,044 11.87% $9,082,574 52% $4,721,410 24.7% $18,885,640 25% $4,721,410 $9,442,820 45 2066 / 2067 $7,822,576,366 $78,225,764 11.87% $9,284,792 52% $4,826,530 24.7% $19,306,118 25% $4,826,530 $9,653,059 46 2067 / 2068 $7,996,355,766 $79,963,558 11.87% $9,491,055 52% $4,933,751 24.7% $19,735,006 25% $4,933,752 $9,867,503 47 2068 / 2069 $8,173,610,753 $81,736,108 11.87% $9,701,443 52% $5,043,118 24.7% $20,172,471 25% $5,043,118 $10,086,236 48 2069 / 2070 $8,354,410,841 $83,544,108 11.87% $9,916,039 52% $5,154,671 24.7% $20,618,686 25% $5,154,671 $10,309,343 49 2070 / 2071 $8,538,826,930 $85,388,269 11.87% $10,134,926 52% $5,268,456 24.7% $21,073,825 25% $5,268,456 $10,536,912 50 2071 / 2072 $8,726,931,341 $87,269,313 11.87% $10,358,192 52% $5,384,517 24.7% $21,538,067 25% $5,384,517 $10,769,033 $2,532,689,294 $300,610,605 52% $156,266,929 $625,067,718 25% $156,266,929 $312,533,858 $1,083,076,794 $128,552,828 52% $66,825,838 $267,303,353 25% $66,825,838 $133,651,676Present Value Fiscal Year
Total
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Table 4: Projection of Affordable Housing Set-Aside Funds Note: Funding may not be expended each year, may be accumulated until the PFA has determined an efficient use / expenditure of such funding.
Total Taxes
Allocated to
EIFD
Affordable
Housing Set-
Aside
0 2021 / 2022 $0 $0
1 2022 / 2023 $519,279 $103,856
2 2023 / 2024 $1,176,391 $235,278
3 2024 / 2025 $1,512,494 $302,499
4 2025 / 2026 $1,960,528 $392,106
5 2026 / 2027 $2,737,612 $547,522
6 2027 / 2028 $3,001,964 $600,393
7 2028 / 2029 $3,220,571 $644,114
8 2029 / 2030 $3,518,360 $703,672
9 2030 / 2031 $3,713,526 $742,705
10 2031 / 2032 $3,914,664 $782,933
11 2032 / 2033 $4,192,360 $838,472
12 2033 / 2034 $4,452,831 $890,566
13 2034 / 2035 $4,591,845 $918,369
14 2035 / 2036 $4,734,212 $946,842
15 2036 / 2037 $4,850,279 $970,056
16 2037 / 2038 $4,968,667 $993,733
17 2038 / 2039 $5,089,423 $1,017,885
18 2039 / 2040 $5,212,594 $1,042,519
19 2040 / 2041 $5,338,228 $1,067,646
20 2041 / 2042 $5,466,375 $1,093,275
21 2042 / 2043 $5,597,086 $1,119,417
22 2043 / 2044 $5,730,410 $1,146,082
23 2044 / 2045 $5,866,401 $1,173,280
24 2045 / 2046 $6,005,111 $1,201,022
25 2046 / 2047 $6,146,596 $1,229,319
26 2047 / 2048 $6,290,911 $1,258,182
27 2048 / 2049 $6,438,111 $1,287,622
28 2049 / 2050 $6,588,256 $1,317,651
29 2050 / 2051 $6,741,404 $1,348,281
30 2051 / 2052 $6,897,615 $1,379,523
31 2052 / 2053 $7,056,949 $1,411,390
32 2053 / 2054 $7,219,471 $1,443,894
33 2054 / 2055 $7,385,243 $1,477,049
34 2055 / 2056 $7,554,331 $1,510,866
35 2056 / 2057 $7,726,800 $1,545,360
36 2057 / 2058 $7,902,718 $1,580,544
37 2058 / 2059 $8,082,155 $1,616,431
38 2059 / 2060 $8,265,181 $1,653,036
39 2060 / 2061 $8,451,867 $1,690,373
40 2061 / 2062 $8,642,287 $1,728,457
41 2062 / 2063 $8,836,515 $1,767,303
42 2063 / 2064 $9,034,628 $1,806,926
43 2064 / 2065 $9,236,704 $1,847,341
44 2065 / 2066 $9,442,820 $1,888,564
45 2066 / 2067 $9,653,059 $1,930,612
46 2067 / 2068 $9,867,503 $1,973,501
47 2068 / 2069 $10,086,236 $2,017,247
48 2069 / 2070 $10,309,343 $2,061,869
49 2070 / 2071 $10,536,912 $2,107,382
50 2071 / 2072 $10,769,033 $2,153,807
$312,533,858 $62,506,772
$133,651,676 $26,730,335
Fiscal Year
Total
Present Value
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These projections are based on research and analysis of available data at the time of IFP preparation for purposes of illustration. Actual results may differ from those expressed in this document. Appendix C provides additional detail for the projected revenue analysis.
5.3 Plan for Financing Public Facilities
The PFA intends to utilize numerous funding sources and financing mechanisms to implement the projects identified in Section 3.2, potentially including District tax increment, grant sources, impact fees, private sector investment, and/or other sources. Separate from its participation in the District, the City has implemented a CFD to assist with ongoing services and maintenance of public improvements within the District.
As it pertains to the use of District tax increment, the PFA intends to incur debt only when it is financially prudent to do so. It is estimated at this time that approximately $ 134 million of EIFD funding (in present value dollars) will be made available through bond or loan proceeds and pay- as-you-go proceeds over the District lifetime. It is estimated that approximately $50 million will be available in the first 20 years of the District lifetime. It may be the case that multiple debt issuances will be necessary to achieve the targeted funding capacity.
5.4 Limit on Total Dollars Allocated to the District
The total number of dollars or taxes that may be allocated to the District shall not exceed $313,000,000 (nominal dollars). This represents a maximum allocation of $156,500,000 from the City and $156,500,000 from the County over the District lifetime.
The limit on the total number of dollars that the City and County will contribute to the EIFD shall be defined as the annual amount of the City and County contributions that is needed to pay bond payments, or otherwise fund the approved list of infrastructure and other projects and expenses of the District, with an estimated cost of approximately $50 million (in present value dollars) over the first 20 years of the District lifetime and approximately $134 million (in present value dollars) over the entire District lifetime . The infrastructure and other projects shall be considered ful ly funded when all projects have been financed by bonds, excess tax increment, or other funds. In the following fiscal year after the projects have been fully funded, and any year thereafter up to the time limit, any City and County contributions in exces s of remaining bond payments shall be returned by the EIFD to the City and County according to their respective proportions. The EIFD shall provide the County an annual accounting of the status of the funding of the approved infrastructure projects and notify the County when they have been fully funded.
To the extent a computation of the limit on total dollars allocated to the district is needed in future dollars at some time in the future, the analysis shall utilize as a benchmark index the California Department of General Services (DGS) California Construction Cost Index (CCCI).
The PFA authorizes the County, throughout the existence of the PFA and the District, to review the PFA’s calculations to determine if excess property tax increment revenue exists , as defined above, in any given year. The PFA shall cooperate with such review by providing reasonable access, inspection privileges, and copies of the PFA’s and/or District's records to County staff upon request, as necessary to review the PFA’s calculat ions. In the event a County review B88
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Infrastructure Financing Plan
April 2022
determines excess property tax increment revenue exists, the PFA shall return such excess back to the City and County in proportion to those entities' contributions to the excess amount.
5.5 District Termination Date
The District will cease to exist the earlier of: (i) forty five (45) years from the date on which the first issuance of bonds or acquisition of a loan is approved by the PFA, or (ii) June 30, 2099. This IFP assumes that the District will be formed in Fiscal Year 202 1-2022 and will begin receiving tax revenues in Fiscal Year 2022-2023.
5.6 Analysis of Costs to Provide Facilities and Services Appendix D to this IFP includes, as part of the Fiscal Impact Analysis, an analysis of the costs to the City and County for providing facilities and services to the area of the District. It is estimated that, at Year 20 of the District lifetime (assumed stabilized buildout of District area), annual costs to the City will be approximately $ 14.2 million, and annual costs to the County will be approximately $7.6 million to service the area of the District.
5.7 Fiscal Impact Analysis
Appendix D to this IFP includes an analysis of the projected fiscal impact of the District and the associated development upon both the City and the County, as the only two affected taxing entities that are contributing tax increment revenues to the District. Table 5 presents an overview of fiscal impacts to the City and County.
Table 5: Overview of Fiscal Impacts to City and County
It is estimated that, at Year 20 of the District lifetime, the District area will generate an annual net fiscal surplus of $3.0 million to the City and an annual net fiscal surplus of $22.4 million the County.
Over 50 years, District activity will generate a positive net fiscal impact of approximately $ 74.5 million for the City and $528.9 million for the County on a present-value basis. This is in addition to the Community economic benefits outlined in Section 4 of this IFP (e.g. jobs, housing, remediation of contamination, connectivity, active transportation).
5.8 Developer Reimbursement for Transit Priority Project Annual
(Stablized
Year 20)
Year 0-50
Nominal
Total
Year 0-50
Present Value
@ 3.0%
City of Carson
Estimated Fiscal Revenues (Net of EIFD Contribution) $17,219,617 $1,054,660,400 $427,417,900 Estimated Fiscal Expenditures $14,193,500 $879,816,000 $352,870,800 Estimated Net Fiscal Impact to City $3,026,117 $174,844,400 $74,547,100 County of Los Angeles
Estimated Fiscal Revenues (Net of EIFD Contribution) $29,958,550 $1,728,056,400 $718,604,900 Estimated Fiscal Expenditures $7,568,100 $471,059,500 $189,721,600 Estimated Net Fiscal Impact to County $22,390,450 $1,256,996,900 $528,883,300 B89
Carson EIFD
Infrastructure Financing Plan
April 2022
The PFA does not intend to finance any potential costs that may be incurred by reimbursing a developer of a project that is both located entirely within the boundaries of the District and qualifies for the Transit Priority Project Program, pursuant to Section 65470. To the extent that a developer is willing to fund Transit Priority Project infrastructure expenditures beyond and in advance of said developer’s fair share (not contemplated at this time), the PFA may c onsider and evaluate such reimbursement at the appropriate time.
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Carson EIFD
Infrastructure Financing Plan
April 2022
6.0 Removal of Dwelling Units and
Replacement Housing Plan
The PFA does not anticipated that any housing units will be removed as a result of any project identified in this IFP. However, if any relocation of dwelling units is deemed to be required in the future for a project financed by the District, the PFA will comply with the requirements of Government Code Section 53398.56.
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Carson EIFD
Infrastructure Financing Plan
April 2022
7.0 Goals of the District
The goals of the District’s implementation of the public facilities outlined in Section 3.2 is to support the City’s General Plan, facilitate the cleanup and reuse of former landfill sites serving the larger County region, support implementation of regional connectivity through active transportation, and facilitate the growth of a regional educational institution in CSUDH. The District additionally aims to implement Statewide policy goals of housing supply and sustainable infrastructure investment.
The underlying objectives include economic development in the form of fiscal revenue generation for the City , County, and other taxing entities , job creation, provision of new housing supply at multiple income levels , improvement of quality of life, and promotion of environmental sustainability. The District will be utilized to address critical infrastructure and affordable housing project funding, which are needed to catalyze private sector investment and development.
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Carson EIFD
Infrastructure Financing Plan
April 2022
8.0 Appendices
Appendix A: Map of Boundaries of the Carson EIFD
Appendix B: Legal Description of the Carson EIFD
Appendix C: Projected Tax Increment Revenue Analysis
Appendix D: Fiscal Impact Analysis
Appendix E: General Plan Environmental Impact Report
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APPENDIX E
Program Overview
Community Economic Resilience Fund (CERF)
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12/15/2021
COMMUNITY ECONOMIC RESILIENCE FUND (CERF)
OVERVIEW: CERF’s planning phase will establish regional, inclusive planning tables to develop blueprints and align resources for each region’s economic future. These regional tables will result in recommended investments throughout the region that will support economic recovery from COVID-19, bolster equity outcomes, and facilitate the transition to carbon neutrality.
PROGRAM VISION: Deliver a sustainable and equitable recovery from the economic distress of COVID-19 that meets communities and regions where they are by supporting new regional plans and investing in strategies and projects that help diversify regional economies and develop or expand environmentally sustainable industries that create high-quality, broadly accessible jobs for all Californians.
Program O bjectives
• Support the development of meaningfully inclusive regional planning processes that produce regional roadmaps for economic recovery from COVID-19 that prioritize the creation of accessible, high-quality jobs in sustainable industries.
• Invest in projects proposed by regional planning tables that respond to negative economic impacts of COVID-19 and meet criteria for equity, job quality, and sustainability, among others. • Align and leverage state investments (e.g., High Road Training Partnerships, community capacity building programs), federal investments (e.g., Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), and philanthropic and private-sector investments in regions to maximize COVID-19 recovery efforts.
What Does Success Look Like?
• Planning phase. Inclusive, diverse, transparent, and accountable regional planning that results in a holistic strategy and recommended series of investments to recover from COVID-19, grow sustainable industries, diversify regional economies, and increase access to high quality jobs. • Implementation phase. Projects throughout the region that advance globally competitive and sustainable industries and high-quality jobs with clear employment pathways for underserved and incumbent workers facing industry disruption after COVID-19.
Program Det ail
1. Phase 1—Regional Planning Grants:
a. Create 13 Regional Collaboratives that will receive ~$5M each.
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b. Establish new, inclusive regional planning tables starting in spring/summer 2022. Much like a “team of teams,” they will incorporate existing local efforts to address planning on a broader regional scale.
c. Develop localized integrated recovery and transition plans that meet regions where they are. Plans will include analysis of industry sectors and labor markets, with actionable research and consultation from expert institutions.
d. Embed locally-hired coordinators to facilitate ongoing engagement, partnership, and relationship-building activities with business, labor, community, government, education, economic development, federally and non-federally recognized tribes, and other key stakeholder groups.
e. Support participants to increase access and broaden participation in the planning process.
f. Provide technical assistance to guide convening, evaluation, research priorities, and other needs during the planning phase.
g. Create holistic investment strategies that address disproportionate impacts of COVID-19 by diversifying the economy, and developing or growing sustainable industries that create accessible, well-paying jobs. Strategies should complement, incorporate, or expand on existing plans such as Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies (CEDS), as applicable and relevant.
2. Phase 2—Implementation Grants:
a. Provide approximately $500M in rolling, competitive grants from Fall 2022 to June 2024.
Includes reserve funding for each region for competitive bidding. b. Fund projects in localities across the regions based on regional plans developed and criteria outlined.
c. In cases with prior inclusive planning processes, regions may be eligible to apply for “early implementation” pilot projects. More details forthcoming regarding eligibility and criteria.
d. Ensure projects support economic recovery and transition for populations and/or industries disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, while promoting economic diversification, sustainability, and equity. Outcomes will drive the growth of globally competitive, sustainable industries with well-paying, accessible jobs and bolster equity outcomes by race, ethnicity, gender, and geography.
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Best -Case Scenario Timelines
Month Program Progress
December 2021 Release of finalized regions
December 2021 Draft guidelines for Planning Grants released for public comment January 2022 Listening-session webinar for public feedback February 2022 Planning Grant solicitation released
March 2022 Draft guidelines for implementation grants released April 2022 Planning Grant finalists selected and grants awarded August 2022 Implementation grant solicitation released
October 2022 Begin awarding implementation grants
June 2024 Funds must be encumbered
October 2026 Funds must be expended
Resources
• SB-162 Community Economic Resilience Fund Program
• Community Economic Resilience Fund - Office of Planning and Research (ca.gov) Contact Information
• Mary Collins, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research. [email protected] B97
1 Finalized CERF Regions and Responses to Frequently Asked Questions We thank everyone for submitting comments and voicing your suggestions and concerns. The CERF Team has thoroughly reviewed all comments submitted, and below we provide finalized economic regions with high-level responses to some common themes and questions.
Final CERF Regions:
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2 Economic Regions and Corresponding Counties:
Economic Regions Counties
Southern Border • Imperial
• San Diego
Inland Empire • Riverside
• San Bernardino
Los Angeles County
Orange County
Central Coast • Monterey
• San Benito
• Santa Barbara
• Santa Cruz
• San Luis Obispo
• Ventura
Northern San Joaquin Valley • Merced
• San Joaquin
• Stanislaus
Central San Joaquin Valley • Fresno
• Kings
• Madera
• Tulare
Kern County
Eastern Sierra • Alpine
• Amador
• Calaveras
• Inyo
• Mariposa
• Mono
• Tuolumne
Bay Area • Alameda
• Contra Costa
• Marin
• Napa
• San Francisco
• San Mateo
• Santa Clara
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3 Economic Regions Counties
• Solano
• Sonoma
Sacramento • Colusa
• El Dorado
• Nevada
• Placer
• Sacramento
• Sutter
• Yolo
• Yuba
Redwood Coast • Del Norte
• Humboldt
• Lake
• Mendocino
North State • Butte
• Glenn
• Lassen
• Modoc
• Plumas
• Shasta
• Sierra
• Siskiyou
• Tehama
• Trinity
Frequently Asked Questions:
1. Q: My region already has some existing economic development planning efforts. Will the CERF- funded regional planning table overtake or erase our efforts? In other words, how will subregional efforts tie into the CERF economic regions? a. CERF seeks to build on, not overtake existing economic development efforts. Think of these new, regional planning tables as a “team of teams.” Existing local planning efforts (e.g., Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies, High Road Training Partnerships, recovery task forces, etc.) will be incorporated into the larger planning table, alongside representatives from other voices and/or corners of the region that B100
4 may have not been involved in prior planning efforts. The organization that serves as the “neutral intermediary” or “convener” will help facilitate setting these new, inclusive planning tables. The momentum and activities of more localized planning efforts will be able to continue.
2. Q: My region is large and diverse. The delineation of regions does not reflect the reality of many communities and economies, and I worry that rural, tribal, and minority communities will not be meaningfully included in the process.
a. The aim of this program is to create meaningfully inclusive planning tables to collaborate in the design of a blueprint for a region’s recovery from COVID-19 and transition to a carbon-neutral economy. Just like a “team of teams,” representatives from various community groups throughout the CERF economic region—from urban to rural to tribal—must be at the table to provide their input, perspective, and expertise.
That’s what makes this program so transformational and meaningful: a community and worker-centered approach to economic development planning.
3. Q: Industries don’t fit neatly within the CERF economic regions. How do we accommodate for this in our processes?
a. We understand that industries may exist in several regions, and/or industries may cross regional borders. The planning phase may account for this, and implementation projects can support projects that cross regional boundaries. During the planning process, you are encouraged to collaborate with any of the other economic regions, especially those who have similar industries and/or economic challenges. To the extent feasible, the state team can help support making these connections among economic regions.
4. Q: You mentioned specific examples of local and regional economic development planning efforts that have been taking place in California. If I’m located in the same region as one of these planning processes but am not already part of that effort, have we already missed the opportunity to be at the table?
a. No, these regional tables will be new tables and there will be opportunity to engage regardless of what previous activity has occurred in your area. The CERF economic planning process is an opportunity to engage many new voices and communities who may not have previously participated in economic development efforts in your region.
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5 5. Q: Your memo failed to highlight the uniqueness of my county or region, and/or did not include the specific efforts that my organization is doing.
a. A: We understand that each locality, county, and region is unique. Moreover, we realize there are impressive efforts happening around the state, ranging from High Road Training Partnerships to Economic Development Councils, among others. We certainly did not attempt to touch on all the unique localities and partnerships in our large and diverse state, and instead we opted for a more manageable, higher-level memo.
6. Q: Why will regions receive the same amount for planning efforts? a. We are providing all regions with the same amount for planning because each region faces different types of difficulties as it relates to recovery from COVID-19, and we aim to provide resources to all parts of the state.
7. Q: This all seems to be moving very quickly. Why?
a. The funds are from the American Rescue Plan Act and must be encumbered by June 30, 2024 for both the planning and implementation phases. Therefore, we aim to strike a balance between providing enough time for public comments and feedback on the program, while also ensuring that each region has enough time to come together to work on planning processes.
8. Q: I have questions about the planning phase, such as what entities are eligible to apply. a. A: We welcome your questions and feedback on the planning phase. Draft guidelines will be available for public comment in December 2021.
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APPENDIX F
CALED Flyer on Financing Tools
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California Association for Local Economic Development
www.caled.org
Gurbax Sahota, CALED President & CEO
Phone: (916) 448-8252 ext. 15
Email: [email protected]
The dissolution of redevelopment eliminated one
of California’s most powerful tools for economic
development at the local level. Today, Enhanced
Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs) and Community Revitalization Investment Authorities (CRIAs) are the tax increment financing tools to accomplish redevelopment.
While EIFDs and CRIAs have many useful powers, they
remain limited compared to former redevelopment
agencies (RDAs).
California Economic
Development Financing Tools
TOPIC RDA EIFD CRIA WHAT’S NEEDED
Infrastructure Financing Yes — if no other reasonable
means of financing available
Yes — for public capital facilities and
projects of community-wide significance Yes
Land Acquisition Yes — may acquire itself or
finance acquisition Yes — finance acquisition only Yes — may acquire itself or finance acquisition Permit EIFDs to acquire itself
Eminent Domain Yes — 12 year limit Under Gatto only for environmental remediation Yes — 12 year limit Permit under EIFD
Land Conveyance Yes No Yes — may convey
surplus properties Permit under EIFD
Environmental Remediation Yes Yes Yes
Affordable Housing Yes — 20% set-aside Yes — no set-aside but any housing units assisted must be affordable Yes — 25% set-aside
Maintenance, Operations and Services No Yes — maintenance of improvements financed by EIFD No Permit under CRIA
TOPIC RDA EIFD CRIA WHAT’S NEEDED
Property Tax Increment Yes — mandatory for all
taxing agencies
Yes — Only for consenting taxing
agencies based on shares designated in
plan. Education districts may not
consent
Yes — Only for
consenting taxing
agencies based on
shares designated in plan
Education districts may
not consent
Develop tools to encourage
participation from other taxing
agencies. Allow school districts
to voluntarily participate.
Other Tax Revenues No Yes — only for consenting agencies to fund housing and infrastructure No Permit under CRIA
Issuance of Tax Allocation Bonds Yes — with Board approval No Yes — no voter approval required
Eliminate voter approval
requirement under EIFD
Term Up to 45 years of receipt of
taxes to repay debt Up to 45 years from issuance of bonds Up to 45 years from district formation
TOPIC RDA EIFD CRIA WHAT’S NEEDED
Property Tax Increment Yes — mandatory for all
taxing agencies
Yes — Only for consenting taxing
agencies based on shares designated in
plan. Education districts may not
consent
Yes — Only for
consenting taxing
agencies based on
shares designated in plan
Education districts may
not consent
Develop tools to encourage
participation from other taxing
agencies. Allow school districts
to voluntarily participate.
Other Tax Revenues No Yes — only for consenting agencies to fund housing and infrastructure No Permit under CRIA
Issuance of Tax Allocation Bonds Yes — with Board approval No Yes — no voter approval required
Eliminate voter approval
requirement under EIFD
Term Up to 45 years of receipt of
taxes to repay debt Up to 45 years from issuance of bonds Up to 45 years from district formation
POWERS
FINANCING
The following chart compares the powers and
financing tools under RDAs, EIFDs, and CRIAs, and
highlights the gaps that remain compared to what
economic development practitioners need today.
We are grateful for legislators’ hard work creating
and improving these and other tools, such as AB 806.
We also need further changes to make these tools
effective for fostering economic growth in California.
TAX INCREMENT FINANCING TOOLS COMPARISON CHART
Full Power Limited Power No Power
Updated January 2020
TOPIC RDA EIFD CRIA WHAT’S NEEDED
Property Tax Increment Yes — mandatory for all
taxing agencies
Yes — Only for consenting taxing
agencies based on shares designated in
plan. Education districts may not
consent
Yes — Only for
consenting taxing
agencies based on
shares designated in plan
Education districts may
not consent
Develop tools to encourage
participation from other taxing
agencies. Allow school districts
to voluntarily participate.
Other Tax Revenues No Yes — only for consenting agencies to fund housing and infrastructure No Permit under CRIA
Issuance of Tax Allocation Bonds Yes — with Board approval No Yes — no voter approval required
Eliminate voter approval
requirement under EIFD
Term Up to 45 years of receipt of
taxes to repay debt Up to 45 years from issuance of bonds Up to 45 years from district formation
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California Association for Local Economic Development
www.caled.org
Gurbax Sahota, CALED President & CEO
Phone: (916) 448-8252 ext. 15
Email: [email protected]
EIFDs and CRIAs are Not Viable Tools for Many Cities
Revenues generated under EIFDs and CRIAs are much smaller compared to RDAs because they are limited to participating agency shares, schools are not permitted to participate, and in many cases there are not enough revenues remaining after fulfilling former redevelopment agency obligations. Unless another agency voluntarily participates, EIFDs and CRIAs are limited to City shares of property tax revenue and do not generate a new funding source for economic development.
Many cities receive a small share of property tax revenues that range from as little as 3 to 10 percent. Our members have found that EIFDs and CRIAs are only feasible for a small number of cities who have a larger share of property tax revenues and significant new development in the proposed district. Additionally, many cities have lost their internal capacity to pursue an EIFD or CRIA due to limited personnel and budget constraints. The process to form an EIFD or CRIA can be too challenging if it requires full CEQA review (versus a programmatic EIR permitted for RDAs) and voter approval to form the district or issue bonds.
Potential solutions could be to develop tools to encourage other taxing agencies to participate if demonstrated that they benefit financially from new tax revenues generated by the district, or to allow school districts to voluntarily participate if projects are mutually beneficial, such as affordable housing for teachers.
CALED and our Economic Development Finance and Real Estate experts are ready to work with legislators and the Administration to identify ways to address these gaps. Please contact us today.
WITH REDEVELOPMENT
TIF FINANCING TODAY
TODAY WITH EIFD/CRIA
Share of Future Tax Revenues Share of Future Tax Revenues 100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Before BeforeAfter After
Significant, unilateral increase in local tax revenues School or community college districts may not participate.
No increase in local tax revenues, unless agencies elect to participate.
City Share TI Other Agencies Schools
California Economic Development Financing Tools
City share of
property tax
increment
with RDA
City share of
property tax
increment
with EIFD/
CRIA. No new
revenues
unless other
agencies
participate.
These charts were created by CALED’s Economic Development, Finance, and Real Estate (EDFRE) Committee.
Learn more about EDFRE at https://caled.org/everything-ed/caleds-economic-development-finance-real-estate-committee/ B105
“REINVEST ANTIOCH”
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STATEGIC PLAN (EDSP)
VOLUME 2: KEY WORK PRODUCTS FROM STRATEGIC
PLANNING PROCESS
Prepare
d for:
City of Antioch
September 13, 2022
PREPARED BY
:
In association with:
TRI Commercial Real Estate Services, Inc.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
YORBA LINDA, CA• www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597
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Contents (linked table)
Document 2.1 – Economic and Demographic Profile
Document 2.2 – Executive Summary of Industry Cluster Report Document 2.3 – Draft Citywide Framework for Antioch EDSP Document 2.4 – Briefing to City Council, Prioritizing Employment Centers (09-22-2020) Document 2.5 – Stategy Review with Pandemic (memorandum dated 03-16-2021) Document 2.6 – Opportunity Brief for Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch Employment Center Document 2.7 – Opportunity Brief for Somersville Employment Center B107
Document 2.1
Economic and Demographic Profile
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ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
City of Antioch Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans Februa
ry 28, 2020
Prepa
red for:
CITY OF ANTIOCH
Prepar
ed by:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
P.O. Box 489
Yorba Linda, CA 92885
Telephone: (714) 692-9596
Fax: (714) 692-9597
Web: www.natelsondale.com
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 II. Demographic and Economic Data/Forecasts ......................................................................................... 2 Census-Based Demographic and Economic Overview ..................................................................... 2 Demographic and Employment Forecasts ....................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Data ............................................................................................................................ 10 Employment Overview .................................................................................................................. 14 III. Assessed Valuation, Building Permit, and Taxable Sales Data ............................................................. 18 Assessed Valuation Data ................................................................................................................ 18 Building Permit Data ...................................................................................................................... 20 Taxable Sales Data ......................................................................................................................... 23 Appe
ndix A: Census Data for Zip Codes in City of Antioch
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TABLES
Table II-1. Income and Labor Force-related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California ..................... 4 Table II-2. Education and Ethnicity/Race related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California ............. 5 Table II-3. Housing-related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California ............................................... 6 Table II-4. ABAG Regional Growth Forecast for City of Antioch – Population, Households, and Employment .................................................................................................................................................. 7 Table II-5. ABAG Regional Growth Forecast for Jobs/Housing Ratio – Antioch, East Bay, and Other ABAG 7 Table II-6. Total Labor Force: Antioch, East Bay, and CA (2009-18) ........................................................... 11 Table III-1. Net Taxable Assessed Value in Contra Costa County, Selected Fiscal Years (FY) ..................... 18 Table III-2. Taxable Retail Sales, City of Antioch, 2010-2017 ...................................................................... 23
FIGURES
Figure II-1. ABAG Population Forecasts (% Growth): 2020-30 and 2030-40 ................................................ 8 Figure II-2. ABAG Household Forecasts (% Growth): 2020-30 and 2030-40................................................. 9 Figure II-3. ABAG Employment Forecasts (% Growth): 2015-25 and 2025-40 ........................................... 10 Figure II-4. Unemployment Rate Estimates: Antioch, East Bay and CA (2009-18) ..................................... 11 Figure II-5. Travel Distances (mile ranges) to Work: Antioch, East Bay, and CA ......................................... 12 Figure II-6. In-Area Labor Force Efficiency, % Living and Employed in the City: Contra Costa County Cities ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Figure II-7. Share of Employment by Industry in Antioch, 2017. ................................................................ 15 Figure II-8. Share of Employment by Industry by Area, 2017 ..................................................................... 16 Figure II-9. Distribution of Jobs by Area by Monthly Earnings, 2017.......................................................... 17 Figure III-1. Year-over Year Percentage Increase in Net Taxable Assessed Value, FY 2011 to 2019 .......... 19 Figure III-2. Distribution of Taxable Assessed Value in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, FY 2018-19 ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure III-3. Total Private Residential Building Permit Totals, City of Antioch, 2010 to 2018 ..................... 20 Figure III-4. Total Private Residential Building Permit Valuation, City of Antioch, 2011 to 2018 ............... 21 Figure III-5. Distribution of Private Residential Building Permit Activity in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, 2018............................................................................................................................ 22 Figure III-6. Distribution of Private Residential Building Permit Valuation in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, 2018............................................................................................................................ 22 Figure III-7. Taxable Retail Sales Trends (2010 – 2017), Antioch, East Bay, and California ........................ 24 Figure III-8. Taxable Retail Sales/Household (2010 – 2017), Antioch, East Bay, and California ................. 24 B111
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC. Page 1
Economic and Demographic Profile for City of Antioch
Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans
I. INTRODUCTION
This document provides preliminary background information and data for the Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plan(s) being prepared for the City of Antioch. The Economic Development Baseline and associated strategic plan(s) are intended guide the City’s internal policies and priorities for economic development over the next five to ten years. As an initial step in this process, this preliminary market overview report evaluates demographic and economic data at multiple levels of geography (city, county/region, and state) to allow for comparison of local conditions to reference-area benchmarks.
Subsequent phases of the process will include more detailed analyses of conditions within specific Antioch sub-areas (employment centers).
This report is organized as follows:
Section II provides a market overview that summarizes the most recent demographic and economic data from the following sources:
• Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) program. These data are grouped by the following categories: Income, Labor Force, Education, Ethnicity/Race and Housing Units.
• Demographic and Employment forecasts from the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). • Labor force data, including unemployment rates provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and various other measures provided by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household (LEHD) Dynamics program.
• Employment data, including the distribution by major industry groups and jobs by earning and educational attainment ranges. These data are also provided by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household (LEHD) Dynamics program.
Section III provides data on assessed valuation, residential building permits, and taxable sales, also provided (where applicable) at the city, regional, and state levels of geography.
It should be emphasized that this report is intended to provide an initial and preliminary overview of economic and demographic conditions in Antioch relative to regional benchmarks. The final strategy documents will provide much more detailed and in-depth analyses of economic development opportunities and challenges in Antioch, based on primary research and direct input from local stakeholders. Most significantly, the final document will provide a detailed and comprehensive target industry analysis, which will evaluate the industry clusters and sectors that are likely to be successfully augmented in the community. While this initial document provides a general overview of broad industry and employment trends, the subsequent industry cluster analysis will be based on the most recent detailed (6-digit NAICS
1 code) employment data provided by JobsEQ, allowing for target industries to be pinpointed with a high degree of specificity. . 1 NAICS = North American Industry Classification System.
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THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC. Page 2
Economic and Demographic Profile for City of Antioch
Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans
II. Demographic and Economic Data/Forecasts
Census-Based Demographic and Economic Overview
The following data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 5- year estimates (2013-17) 2. Data are provided for primarily the City of Antioch, East Bay region3, and the State of California. In addition, Appendix A provides ACS data for the two zip code areas (94509 and 94531) within the City’s boundaries. Topics address current conditions related to households, housing units, and characteristics of the resident labor force (commute times, educational attainment and race/ethnicity).
Table II-1, on page 4, provides a summary of income and labor force-related data from the ACS. In terms of household income ranges, Antioch’s largest share of households (18.5%) are in the $100,000 to $149,999 range. Median household income in Antioch ($69,925) is in line with the State and below the East Bay median ($86,767). In contrast, Antioch’s average (as distinct from then median) household income level ($85,001) is slightly below the State’s but well below the East Bay’s ($116,959). The labor force data show that three-fourths (74.9%) of Antioch’s residents in the 20 to 64-age population are in the labor force. This share is slightly below the East Bay (78.9%) and State (76.4%) figures. The largest difference in Labor force participation rates by educational attainment is in the bachelor’s degree or higher category. Among residents in this category, Antioch’s labor force participation rate (80.4%) is about 5 percentage points below the East Bay (85.5%) and State (85.3%) rates. In terms of travel times to work, Antioch’s residents tend to have longer commutes than their East Bay or California counterparts. The largest share of the local labor force (17.3%) has a commute time in the range of 60 to 89 minutes, above the East Bay (13.5%) and State (8.0%) figures. Further, almost two-thirds (64.9%) have commute times of 30 minutes or more. Comparable figures for the East Bay and State’s labor forces are 53.4% and 42.4%, respectively.
Table II-2, on page 5, provides a summary of education-related and ethnicity/race-related data from the ACS. For the 18 to 24-age population, Antioch underperforms in terms of educational attainment compared to the East Bay region and the State. For this age group, about 17.4% of Antioch residents are in the less than high school graduate category, compared to 11.0% and 12.3% for the East Bay and State, respectively. For the 25 years and over age group, about 21.0% of the City’s population has a bachelor’s degree or a graduate or professional degree. This share is well below the shares for the East Bay (43.1%) and the State (32.6%).
2 The ACS replaced the “long form” that historically produced demographic, housing, and socio -economic estimate for the nation as part of the once-a-decade census. The 5-year estimates include 60 months of collected data between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 (the most recent 5-year data available at the time this report was prepared). Although the ACS also produces 1-year estimates, for smaller levels of geography (e.g., city-level), the 5-year estimates are generally preferred given the large sample sizes and resulting lower margin of error for data estimates.
3 The East Bay region includes the two-county region of Alameda and Contra Costa counties.
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The table shows that one-third of Antioch’s population (33.3%) is of Hispanic or Latino origin, which is above the East Bay (23.6%) but below the State (38.8%) shares. In terms of race, the “Black or African American alone” category is more concentrated in Antioch’s resident racial distribution (20.1%) relative to the East Bay (10.1%) and the State (5.8%). The “Asian alone” racial category is relatively low in Antioch (10.9%) relative to the East Bay (23.7%) relative to the State (14.1%).
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Table II-1. Income and Labor Force-related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California Census Variable Antioch East Bay CA
INCOME DATA
Household Income Data
Less than $10,000 4.8 4.3 5.4
$10,000 to $14,999 3.6 3.6 4.7
$15,000 to $24,999 8.3 6.3 8.6
$25,000 to $34,999 8.3 6.2 8.3
$35,000 to $49,999 10.4 9.1 11.4
$50,000 to $74,999 18.2 14.2 16.3
$75,000 to $99,999 13.8 12.1 12.2
$100,000 to $149,999 18.5 18.3 15.7
$150,000 to $199,999 7.9 10.8 7.8
$200,000 or more 6.2 14.9 9.7
Median Household Income $69,925 $86,767 $67,169
Mean Household Income $85,001 $116,959 $96,104
Per Capita Income $27,112 $41,989 $33,128
LABOR FORCE DATA
Employment Status - Labor Force Participation Rate
Population 20 to 64 years 74.9 78.9 76.4
Male - 20 to 64 years 79.4 85.4 82.6
Female - 20 to 64 years 70.6 72.5 70.1
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 to 64 years 75.1 79.7 77.1
Less than high school graduate 63.6 65.6 65.3
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 72.4 74.7 72.8 Some col l ege or associ ate's degree 78.0 79.3 77.6
Bachel or's degree or hi gher 80.4 85.5 85.3
Travel Ti me to Work
Less than 5 minutes 1.4 1.2 1.9
5 to 9 minutes 5.3 5.8 7.8
10 to 14 minutes 9.5 10.6 12.6
15 to 19 minutes 9.2 12.8 14.9
20 to 24 minutes 7.0 11.2 14.4
25 to 29 minutes 2.7 5.0 6.0
30 to 34 minutes 9.5 13.3 15.0
35 to 39 minutes 2.5 3.3 2.7
40 to 44 minutes 4.2 5.2 4.3
45 to 59 minutes 15.2 12.6 8.7
60 to 89 minutes 17.3 13.5 8.0
90 or more mi nutes 16.2 5.5 3.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG. %
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Table II-2. Education and Ethnicity/Race related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California Census Variable Antioch East Bay CA
EDUCATION
Educational Attainment - Population 18 to 24 years
Less than high school graduate 17.4 11.0 12.3
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 30.6 27.0 29.5 Some col l ege or associ ate's degree 46.3 47.8 48.3
Bachel or's degree or hi gher 5.7 14.2 9.8
Educational Attainment - Population 25 years and over
Less than 9th grade 6.2 6.3 9.7
9th to 12th grade, no diploma 7.4 5.5 7.8
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27.1 17.9 20.6 Some col l ege, no degree 29.5 20.0 21.5
Associ ate's degree 8.8 7.2 7.8
Bachel or's degree 15.0 25.8 20.4
Graduate or professional degree 6.0 17.3 12.2
ETHNICITY/RACE
Hispanic or L atino Origin
Not Hispanic or Latino 66.7 76.4 61.2
Hispanic or Latino 33.3 23.6 38.8
Race
White alone 44.0 49.2 60.6
Black or African American alone 20.1 10.1 5.8
American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.8 0.6 0.7
Asian alone 10.9 23.7 14.1
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 1.0 0.7 0.4 Some other race al one 14.2 9.4 13.7
Two or more races 9.0 6.5 4.7
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG. %
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Table II-3, below, provides housing-related data from the ACS. Antioch’s housing units are largely occupied (94.6%). This share is in line with the East Bay figure (95.3%) and slightly above the State figure (92.1%). Antioch also has a slightly high share of owner-occupied housing units, about 60.8% of the total, relative to the East Bay (58.1%) and the State (54.5%). Antioch’s housing stock is also relatively new: about 38.3% of the City’s total have been built since 1990. This figure is much higher than the comparable East Bay (21.9%) and State (24.5%) shares.
Table II-3. Housing-related Census Data – Antioch, East Bay, and California Census Variable Antioch East Bay CA
HOUSING
Occupancy Status - Housing Units
Occupied 94.6 95.3 92.1
Vacant 5.4 4.7 7.9
Tenure - Occupied Housing Units
Owner occupied 60.8 58.1 54.5
Renter occupi ed 39.2 41.9 45.5
Year Structure Built
Built 2014 or later 0.2 0.5 0.6
Built 2010 to 2013 2.1 1.4 1.5
Built 2000 to 2009 12.5 9.6 11.5
Built 1990 to 1999 23.5 10.4 10.9
Built 1980 to 1989 18.8 14.1 15.3
Built 1970 to 1979 18.8 16.8 17.8
Built 1960 to 1969 10.5 13.6 13.4
Built 1950 to 1959 6.7 13.1 13.6
Built 1940 to 1949 4.4 6.9 6.1
Built 1939 or earlier 2.4 13.5 9.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG. %
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Demographic and Employment Forecasts
Table II-4, below, shows the most recent Association of Bay of Governments (ABAG) demographic and employment estimates and forecasts for the City of Antioch. The figures provide growth rate projections for the 2020-2030 and 2030-2040 periods, along with the entire 20-year period from 2020 to 2040.
These projections are from ABAG’s adopted Regional Forecast for Plan Area 2040, developed as part of the recently completed Plan Bay Area.
The table shows that Antioch is projected to grow rapidly over the next 20 years, with sustained population, household, and employment growth during this period.
Table II-4. ABAG Regional Growth Forecast for City of Antioch – Population, Households, and Employment
% Change
Variable 2020-30 203 0 -40 2020-40
Population 9.0% 15.7% 26.2%
Households 8.1% 9.9% 22.8%
Empl oyment 8.4% 8.8% 17.9%
Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
Table II
-5, below, shows existing and projected jobs/housing ratios for the City, the East Bay region, and the remaining ABAG region. The table shows that Antioch has a significantly lower jobs/housing balance than the East Bay and remaining ABAG regions. According to the ABAG forecasts, Antioch’s jobs/housing ratio is projected to slightly decrease through 2040.
Table II-5. ABAG Regional Growth Forecast for Jobs/Housing Ratio – Antioch, East Bay, and Other ABAG
Jobs / Households
Region 2020 2030 2 040
Anti och 0.67 0.67 0.64
East Bay 1.25 1.23 1.20
Other ABAG 1.53 1.50 1.46
Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
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To provide additional context on the city-level ABAG forecasts, the following three figures compare Antioch’s projected growth – in population, households, and employment – relative to the East Bay and the remaining ABAG region4. The figures further illustrate the City’s projected rapid demographic and employment growth over the 2030-2040 period, as Antioch is projected to grow significantly faster than the East Bay and remaining ABAG regions.
Figure II-1. ABAG Population Forecasts (% Growth): 2020-30 and 2030-40 Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
4 The ABAG region includes the following nine-county region: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.
9.0%
15.7%
10.1%
11.3%
9.5%
11.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2020-30 Period 2030-40 Period
Antioch City East Bay Other ABAG
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Figure II-2. ABAG Household Forecasts (% Growth): 2020-30 and 2030-40 Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
8.1%
13.6%
9.3% 9.1%8.9% 9.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2020-30 Period 2030-40 Period
Antioch City East Bay Other ABAG
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Figure II-3. ABAG Employment Forecasts (% Growth): 2015-25 and 2025-40 Sour
ce: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
Labor Force Data
The BLS provides unemployment rate estimates through its Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Figure II-4, below, provides annual average unemployment rate estimates for Antioch, East Bay, and California for the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018. As shown in the figure, during the recovery from the Great Recession (between 2010 and 2015), Antioch’s unemployment rates were significantly above those in the East Bay and in California. During the past three years, the “gap” has narrowed; Antioch’s 2018 unemployment rate (4.1%) was similar to the State (4.2%) but still slightly above the East Bay rate (3.1%).
Table II-6, below, shows the total labor force for the three selected geographies for selected years during the 2009-2018 period. The table shows that during this period Antioch’s labor force has grown more slowly relative to the East Bay and the State.
8.4%
8.8%
6.8% 6.7%
6.4% 6.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2020-30 Period 2030-40 Period
Antioch City East Bay Other ABAG
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Figure II-4. Unemployment Rate Estimates: Antioch, East Bay and CA (2009-18) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Lo cal Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program; TNDG.
Table II-6. Total Labor Force: Antioch, East Bay, and CA (2009-18) Area 2009 2012 2015 2018
Annual Average
Growth Rate
2009-18
Anti och 49,215 50,156 50,473 51,295 0.5%
East Bay 1,285,683 1,334,202 1,364,794 1,412,785 1.1%
California 18,215,140 18,523,793 18,851,079 19,398,212 0.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Stati sti cs (BLS), Local Area Unempl oyment Stati sti cs (LAUS) program; TNDG.
Figure
II-5 and Figure II-6, on the following pages, provide additional labor force data for Antioch. The data in these figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
11.3%
14.8%
14.0%
12.2%
10.3%
8.5%
7.0%
5.6%
4.8%
4.1%
10.1%
10.9%
10.2%
8.8%
7.3%
6.0%
4.9%
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
11.2%
12.2%
11.7%
10.4%
8.9%
7.5%
6.2%
5.5%
4.8%
4.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Antioch East Bay California
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(LEHD) program5. First, Figure II-5 provides travel distance ranges to work for the City’s labor force relative to County and State benchmarks. The figure shows that Antioch’s resident labor force tends to have longer distance commutes relative to the overall labor force in the East Bay and in the State. For example, Antioch has the largest share (25.0%) of residents that travel distances of 25 to 50 miles to work. In addition, the City has the smallest share (16.0%) of residents that have commute distances in the 10 to 24-mile range.
Figure II-5. Travel Distances (mile ranges) to Work: Antioch, East Bay, and CA Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Hous ehold Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
Figure II-6, on the following page, shows the measure of in-area labor force efficiency – the percent of the City’s labor force that lives and works in the selection area – for Antioch relative to the remaining cities in Contra Costa County. As shown in the figure, Antioch has a relatively large share of its labor force that lives and works in the City. At 10.6%, this measure of labor force efficiency ranks 5th among the 19 cities in the County. The average labor force efficiency measure for cities in Contra Costa County is 7.8%.
5 The data were accessed through the OnTheMap online mapping and reporting application developed by the U.S.
Census Bureau. Among other data, it shows where workers are employed and where they live. The application can be accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/.
44%
16%
25%
15%
39%
31%
14% 15%
46%
26%
12%
15%
Less than 10 miles 10 to 24 miles 25 to 50 miles Greater than 50 miles Antioch East Bay CA
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Figure II-6. In-Area Labor Force Efficiency, % Living and Employed in the City: Contra Costa County Cities Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Hous ehold Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
2.6%
4.0%
4.1%
4.3%
5.0%
5.7%
5.8%
6.2%
6.3%
6.9%
7.1%
7.8%
8.8%
9.6%
10.5%
10.6%
12.0%
12.1%
12.5%
14.1%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Clayton
El Cerrito
Hercules
Pinole
Orinda
San Pablo
Oakley
Pleasant Hill
Moraga
Danville
Lafayette
CITY AVERAGE
Pittsburg
Richmond
Martinez
Antioch
Brentwood
San Ramon
Walnut Creek
Concord
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Employment Overview
Along with the labor force measures presented in the previous section, the U.S. Census Bureau’s LEHD program also provides employment data at various levels of geography, including at the city level. Figure II-7, on the following page, provides the share of employment by industry in Antioch in 2017. The major industry groupings correspond to 2-digit NAICS6 codes industries. In terms of concentration of industry employment, Antioch is heavily represented in the Retail Trade and Health Care/Social Assistance industries, which account for about one-half (49.9%) of total employment in the City. In addition, the top five industries account for more than three-fourths (78.0%) of total employment in the City.
For comparison purposes, Figure II-8, on page 16, shows the share of employment by industry for the East Bay and California in 2017. As shown in the figure, Antioch had the largest shares of employment in the Retail Trade and Health Care/Social Assistance industries relative to the two benchmark regions.
Compared to the East Bay region and the State, Antioch has a much smaller share of employees in the relatively high-paying Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and Manufacturing industries.
In addition to industry employment data, the Census Bureau’s LEHD program also provides the number of jobs for three earnings groups, as shown in Figure II-9 on page 17. As shown in the figure, the City has the highest concentration of jobs with monthly earnings more than $3,333 range (42%). However, the City’s share for this earnings range is well below the East Bay (52%) and State (47%) shares. In addition, about one-fourth (25%) of Antioch’s jobs have monthly earnings of $1,250 or less, which is well above the East Bay (18%) and State (21%) shares in this income range. 6 NAICS = North American Industry Classification System.
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Figure II-7. Share of Employment by Industry in Antioch, 2017.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Hous ehold Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.5%
0.7%
1.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.8%
3.7%
8.8%
9.4%
10.0%
19.5%
30.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Information
Utilities
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Administration & Support, Waste Management and…
Construction
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
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Figure II-8. Share of Employment by Industry by Area, 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Hous ehold Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Information
Utilities
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Public Administration
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Administration & Support, Waste Management and
Remediation
Construction
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Antioch East Bay CA
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Figure II-9. Distribution of Jobs by Area by Monthly Earnings, 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
25%
33%
42%
18%
27%
55%
21%
32%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$1,250 per month or less $1,251 to $3,333 per month More than $3,333 per month Antioch East Bay CA
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III. ASSESSED VALUATION, BUILDING PERMIT, AND TAXABLE SALES DATA This section examines assessed valuation, building permit, and taxable sales data for the City of Antioch compared to appropriate regional benchmarks. Assessed value data for Costa County (incorporated cities and unincorporated portion of the County) is provided by the California State Controller’s open data website. The U.S. Census Bureau provides city-level building permit data through its Place Level Residential Building Permit Statistics survey. For taxable sales data, this section evaluates data for Antioch, the East Bay, and the State of California, as provided by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA).
Assessed Valuation Data
Table III-1, below, shows the net taxable assessed value for selected fiscal years (FY) for Antioch, the remaining cities in the County, and the unincorporated County7. As shown in the table, net assessed valuation of property in Antioch has increased by more than $3.6 billion between FY 2010-11 and FY 2018-19. This represents a percentage increase of 51.2% over the base year total, which is above the same-period percentage increase for the remaining cities in the County (47.4%). The $63.8 billion increase for the entire County represented a 45.8% increase during this period.
Table III-1. Net Taxable Assessed Value in Contra Costa County, Selected Fiscal Years (FY) Area FY 2011 FY 20 15 FY 2019
$000s
Anti och $7,065,568 $8,252,108 $10,684,828
Other Contra Costa Cities 103,720,043 117,964,857 152,900,349 Unincorporated County 28,548,656 31,950,989 39,627,517_______________ _______________ ______ _________ Total County $139,334,267 $158 ,167,953 $203,212,695
Source: California State Controller, Annual Assessed Value Reports To further illustrate this trend, Figure III-1, on the following page, shows the annual percentage increase in net taxable assessed value for all three geographies during this period. As shown in the figure, net taxable assessed value in Antioch increased at a faster rate between 2013 and 2015 relative to the other Contra Costa County cities total and the unincorporated County. For the past four fiscal years, the rate of increase in Antioch has been similar to other County cities. Following, Figure III-2 provides the distribution of net taxable assessed value among Contra Costa County incorporated cities. As shown in the figure, Antioch accounts for about 6.5% of the incorporated city total (6th out 19 total cities). The top four cities – San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Concord, and Richmond – account for about than 44% of the total.
7 The next taxable assessed value is calculated by subtracting non- reimbursed exemptions and homeowner’s exceptions from the gross assessed value.
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Figure III-1. Year-over Year Percentage Increase in Net Taxable Assessed Value, FY 2011 to 2019 Source: Contra Costa County Assessor’s Office, Annual Assessed Value Reports; TNDG Figure III-2. Distribution of Taxable Assessed Value in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, FY 2018-19 Source: Contra Costa Count y Assessor’s Office, Annual Assessed Value Reports; TNDG -7.2%
-1.0%
7.5%
18.1%
8.1%
6.3%
6.1%
6.2%
-0.8%
0.7%
3.6%
10.0%
8.0%
6.3%
6.1%
6.5%
2.5%
2.1%
2.3%
4.5%
5.7%
5.2%
5.0%
6.2%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Antioch Other Contra Costa County Cities Unincorporated County 2011-12
2012-13
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
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Building Permit Data
To provide a snapshot of residential construction activity, this section provides a summary on building permit statistics for privately-owned residential construction in Antioch and other cities in Contra Costa County. These data are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Place Level Residential Building Permit Statistics survey and the City’s Development Services Department. See Figure III-3 (below) and Figure III-4 (following page) for residential permit totals and valuation in Antioch between 2010 and 2018.
Residential building activity consistently increased between 2011 and 2013, with a significant drop in 2014. Permit totals (and associated value) have remained relatively depressed through 2018.
Figure III-3. Total Private Residential Building Permit Totals, City of Antioch, 2010 to 2018 Source: U.S. Cens us Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division; City of Antioch; TNDG. 99 131
263
240
83 68
42 45
63 0
50 100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Permit Totals
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Figure III-4. Total Private Residential Building Permit Valuation, City of Antioch, 2011 to 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division; TNDG .
Figure III-5 and Figure III-6, on the following page, shows the distribution of private residential building permit totals and valuation among Contra Costa County incorporated cities in 2018 (the most recent year for which data are available). At 6.2%, Antioch accounted for the sixth-largest share of residential building permits and building permit valuation among Contra Costa County cities. $28,869
$39,841
$84,344
$77,644
$25,338
$19,900
$28,089
$16,327
$25,059
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Permit Value - $000s
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Figure III-5. Distribution of Private Residential Building Permit Activity in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division; TNDG .
Figure III-6. Distribution of Private Residential Building Permit Valuation in Contra Costa County for Incorporated Cities, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division; TNDG . 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
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Taxable Sales Data
Table III-2, below, provides retail taxable sales data, as provided by the CDFTA, for the City of Antioch between 2010 and 2017 (the most recent year for which data are available). As shown in the table, City-wide taxable retail sales have increased by about $192.9 million during this period, or by 27%.
Table III-2. Taxable Retail Sales, City of Antioch, 2010-2017 Year $000s % Change
2017 916,339 3.4
2016 885,891 2.4
2015 865,191 -1.4
2014 877,641 2.9
2013 852,576 2.9
2012 828,624 4.9
2011 790,153 9.2
2010 723,459 N/A
Source: SBOE; TNDG.
Figure III-7, on the following page, compares Antioch’s taxable retail sales performance relative to the East Bay and California. The figure normalizes the base year sales data (2010 = 100) to provide relevant comparisons among the two geographies. As discussed above, the 2017-year value of 127 implies that Antioch’s taxable retail sales increased by 27% during this period, which is well below the relative East Bay (+49%) and State (41%) increases.
The data also show that Antioch significantly lags the East Bay and the State on a taxable sales per household basis. Figure III-8, on the following page, shows taxable sales per household for all three geographies. Although this measure has slowly risen over this period in Antioch (from $22,431 in 2010 to $27,167 in 2017), taxable sales per household was 79% of the East Bay measure ($34,535) and 76% of the State measure ($35,578).
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Figure III-7. Taxable Retail Sales Trends (2010 – 2017), Antioch, East Bay, and California Source: CDFTA; TND G
Figure III-8. Taxable Retail Sales/Household (2010 – 2017), Antioch, East Bay, and California Source: CDFTA; TND G
Antioch
127
East Bay
149
CA
141
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Index 2010 =100
$22,431
$24,378
$25,379
$25,620
$26,452
$25,993
$26,292
$27,167
$24,027
$25,817
$27,878
$29,449
$30,815
$32,008
$32,766
$34,535
$26,000
$28,200
$30,137
$31,606
$32,875
$33,663
$34,287
$35,578
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Antioch East Bay CA
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APPENDIX A:
SUPPLEMENTAL CENSUS (AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY) DATA
FOR ANTIOCH ZIP CODES
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Table A-1. Income and Labor Force-related Census Data – Antioch Zip Codes Zip Code
Census Variable Anti och 94509 94531
INCOME DATA
Household Income Data
Less than $10,000 4.8 5.5 3.8
$10,000 to $14,999 3.6 4.7 1.7
$15,000 to $24,999 8.3 9.9 5.4
$25,000 to $34,999 8.3 10.1 5.4
$35,000 to $49,999 10.4 11.7 8.2
$50,000 to $74,999 18.2 20.4 14.4
$75,000 to $99,999 13.8 13.3 14.6
$100,000 to $149,999 18.5 14.1 26.0
$150,000 to $199,999 7.9 6.1 11.1
$200,000 or more 6.2 4.2 9.5
Median Household Income $69,925 $58,823 $93,466
Mean Household Income $85,001 $73,709 $104,527
Per Capita Income $27,112 $24,592 $30,996
LABOR FORCE DATA
Employment Status - Labor Force Participation Rate
Population 20 to 64 years 74.9 72.8 78.1
Male - 20 to 64 years 79.4 77.0 83.3
Female - 20 to 64 years 70.6 68.7 73.7
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population 25 to 64 years 75.1 73.1 78.2
Less than high school graduate 63.6 64.4 61.7
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 72.4 72.0 73.1 Some col l ege or associ ate's degree 78.0 77.2 79.1
Bachel or's degree or hi gher 80.4 73.9 85.8
Travel Ti me to Work
Less than 5 minutes 1.4 1.5 1.1
5 to 9 minutes 5.3 6.7 3.4
10 to 14 minutes 9.5 11.0 7.4
15 to 19 minutes 9.2 10.7 7.1
20 to 24 minutes 7.0 7.6 6.3
25 to 29 minutes 2.7 3.0 2.3
30 to 34 minutes 9.5 9.5 9.4
35 to 39 minutes 2.5 3.3 1.4
40 to 44 minutes 4.2 3.6 5.0
45 to 59 minutes 15.2 14.4 16.2
60 to 89 minutes 17.3 15.3 20.1
90 or more mi nutes 16.2 13.3 20.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG. %
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Table A-2. Education and Ethnicity/Race related Census Data – Antioch Zip Codes Census Variable Antioch 94509 94531
EDUCATION
Educational Attainment - Population 18 to 24 years
Less than high school graduate 17.4 21.2 12.2
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 30.6 29.3 32.4 Some col l ege or associ ate's degree 46.3 46.8 45.7
Bachel or's degree or hi gher 5.7 2.8 9.7
Educational Attainment - Population 25 years and over
Less than 9th grade 6.2 7.4 4.2
9th to 12th grade, no diploma 7.4 8.6 5.5
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 27.1 30.4 21.7 Some col l ege, no degree 29.5 29.4 29.6
Associ ate's degree 8.8 7.8 10.4
Bachel or's degree 15.0 11.1 21.3
Graduate or professional degree 6.0 5.3 7.3
ETHNICITY/RACE
Hispanic or L atino Origin
Not Hispanic or Latino 66.7 62.3 73.6
Hispanic or Latino 33.3 37.7 26.4
Race
White alone 44.0 49.9 35.0
Black or African American alone 20.1 17.7 23.8
American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.8 1.2 0.2
Asian alone 10.9 7.2 16.6
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 1.0 0.7 1.5 Some other race al one 14.2 15.0 12.9
Two or more races 9.0 8.3 10.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG. %
Zip Code
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Table A-3. Housing-related Census Data – Antioch Zip Codes Census Variable Antioch 94509 94531
HOUSING
Occupancy Status - Housing Units
Occupied 94.6 93.9 96.0
Vacant 5.4 6.1 4.0
Tenure - Occupied Housing Units
Owner occupied 60.8 55.8 69.5
Renter occupi ed 39.2 44.2 30.5
Year Structure Built
Built 2014 or later 0.2 0.2 0.2
Built 2010 to 2013 2.1 2.0 2.4
Built 2000 to 2009 12.5 5.3 25.2
Built 1990 to 1999 23.5 8.9 49.2
Built 1980 to 1989 18.8 18.6 19.2
Built 1970 to 1979 18.8 28.7 1.4
Built 1960 to 1969 10.5 16.3 0.3
Built 1950 to 1959 6.7 9.6 1.7
Built 1940 to 1949 4.4 6.9 0.1
Built 1939 or earlier 2.4 3.6 0.4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; TNDG.
Zip Code
%
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Document 2.2
Executive Summary of Industry Cluster Report
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INDUSTRY CLUSTER STUDY
FOR
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASELINE
AND STRATEGIC PLANS
Prepared for:
City of Antioch
April 22, 2020
PREPARED BY:
T H E N A T E L S O N D A L E G R O U P , I N C .
Y O R B A L I N D A , C A • w w w . n a t e l s o n d a l e . c o m O : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 6 • F : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 7 B141
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Existing Important Clusters in Antioch and East Bay .................................................................................... 2 “Candidate” Clusters for Antioch’s Target Industry Program ....................................................................... 7 Tables
Table 1. Summary Characteristics and Trends, Antioch’s Largest Industry Clusters (list includes all clusters with more than 100 jobs in 2019) ...................................................................................... 3 Table 2. Summary Characteristics and Trends, East Bay’s Largest Industry Clusters (list includes all clusters with more than 2,000 jobs in 2019) ................................................................................... 4 Table 3. Job Growth/Retraction Performance Compared to National Trends for Antioch’s Largest Industry Clusters (List Includes all Clusters with More than 100 Jobs in 2019), City of Antioch and East Bay ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Table 4. Top 10 Clusters for Key Variables: LQ, Jobs, and Job Growth, Antioch .......................................... 7 Table 5. Top 10 Clusters for Key Variables: LQ, Jobs, and Job Growth, East Bay ......................................... 8 Table 6. Preliminary List of Candidate Clusters for Antioch’s Industry Program ........................................ 10 Table 7. Characteristics of Candidate Clusters ............................................................................................ 11 B142
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Industry Cluster Study - Antioch Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
1 Introduction
This document provides an abbreviated summary of industry growth/retraction trends in the City of Antioch (“City”), comparing the local economy’s recent and longer-term performance to regional and national benchmarks.
The study evaluates the City’s economy in terms of industry “clusters.” Clusters are groups of inter- related industry sectors whose growth potentials within a region tend to be closely aligned. The tendency of individual industries to co-locate in clusters reflects linkages through supply-chain relationships, as well as commonalities in terms of workforce requirements and infrastructure needs.
The concept of industry clusters is an effective framework for economic development programming since it reflects a holistic understanding of the regional economic conditions driving the growth or retraction of individual sectors.
Definitions and Focus of Cluster Study
The clusters analyzed in this study are based on definitions (i.e., industry groupings) from the U.S.
Cluster Mapping Project, an economic development initiative led by Harvard Business School’s Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.
Per the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), the U.S. economy includes a total of approximately 1,100 individual industry sectors. The U.S. Cluster Mapping Project assigns each of these sectors to unique clusters based on the types of linkages described above. Nationally, the Cluster Mapping Project recognizes a total of 67 clusters, with 16 classified as “local” clusters and 51 classified as “traded” clusters.
Total current (2019) employment in the City is estimated at 24,069 jobs. Of this total, 23,462 jobs are in industries that are included in either a local or traded cluster. The local clusters currently represent a total of 21,253 jobs in the City, while the traded clusters account for 2,309 jobs in the City.
Whereas local and traded clusters are both critically important components of a balanced economy, they have distinct roles and characteristics, and these distinctions can be helpful in terms of planning economic development programs. Some of these distinctions are summarized as follows:
• Local clusters typically form the core of a region’s economy; they primarily provide goods and services for the local (resident) population. They tend to account for the majority of jobs in a region (in the case of the City, local clusters represent 88% of total jobs), and support a high quality of life by ensuring the availability of a diverse range of goods and services. • Traded clusters are “export-oriented” in the sense that they include industries that are engaged in producing goods and services for end customers outside the region (in this case, outside of the City). Although traded clusters represent only 9% of the jobs in the City, they are still important from an economic development perspective given that they tend to have higher wages and higher “multiplier impacts” compared to local clusters. That is, they have a strong potential to inject new dollars into the local economy and thereby serve as “drivers” for broader economic growth.
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2 Existing Important Clusters in Antioch and East Bay
Table 1, beginning on the next page, lists all local and traded clusters that had 100 or more jobs in Antioch in 2019, and provides the following information about each listed cluster:
• Total number of jobs in Antioch in 2019 (the latest full year for which data are available) • Location quotient (compared to U.S. benchmark) in 2019. The location quotient (LQ) measures how concentrated/important an industry cluster is in a region compared to national benchmarks. An LQ value greater than 1.0 indicates that a cluster is more concentrated in the region than it is nationally. This is generally regarded as an indication that the region has a comparative advantage relative to a particular cluster, although (especially for local clusters) an LQ below 1.0 can indicate a potential growth opportunity. • Average annual wage in Antioch
• Change in the number of jobs for the most recent five-year period, 2014-2019 Table 2 provides comparable data for the East Bay region (Alameda and Contra Costa counties). For the East Bay region, the summary table lists all local and traded clusters that had 2,000 or more jobs in 2019.
Table 3 summarizes cluster job growth/retraction performance in Antioch and in the East Bay region compared to national trends. This part of the study is based on a “shift-share” analysis for each cluster that estimates an “expected” job change based on national trends. If Antioch (or the East Bay) has higher job growth (or experiences less severe job losses) compared to the expected change, it indicates that the City (or East Bay) has performed better than national trends. Conversely, if Antioch/East Bay has less job growth (or experiences more severe job losses) compared to the expected change, it indicates that the city/region has performed worse than national trends.
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3 TABLE 1. SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS, ANTIOCH’S LARGEST INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019) Cluster Traded / Local Antioch
Jobs in 2019
Location
Quotient in 2019
Average Annual
Wage1
Change in Jobs
2014-2019
Health Services Local 4,875 1.61 $91,027 746
Hospitality Establishments Local 2,849 1.32 $23,070 407 Real Estate, Construction, and Development Local 2,674 1.37 $69,245 608 Education and Training Local 2,420 1.75 $53,436 -80
Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise Local 1,674 2.24 $29,405 -55 Community and Civic Organizations Local 1,532 1.65 $22,168 267 Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local 894 1.36 $35,008 5 Food and Beverage Processing and Distribution Local 891 1.22 $34,752 21 Motor Vehicle Products and Services Local 890 1.21 $52,082 172 Commercial Services Local 832 0.54 $51,554 2
Business Services Traded 561 0.35 $63,779 15
Utilities Local 433 2.20 $136,021 35
Logistical Services Local 399 0.83 $45,967 65
Household Goods and Services Local 395 1.21 $41,394 33
Distribution and Electronic Commerce Traded 308 0.32 $106,392 90 Financial Services Local 280 0.58 $98,003 6
Construction Products and Services Traded 220 1.28 $105,578 35 Education and Knowledge Creation Traded 204 0.25 $71,209 -20 Entertainment and Media Local 197 0.83 $28,621 -36
Hospitality and Tourism Traded 174 0.29 $43,531 2
Marketing, Design, and Publishing Traded 105 0.36 $70,157 -8 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).
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4 TABLE 2. SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS, EAST BAY’S LARGEST INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 2,000 JOBS IN 2019) Cluster Traded / Local East Bay
Jobs in 2019
Location
Quotient in 2019
Average Annual
Wage1
Change in Jobs
2014-2019
Health Services Local 136,075 0.88 $85,976 11,094
Real Estate, Construction, and Development Local 110,920 1.11 $77,090 17,889 Hospitality Establishments Local 108,584 0.99 $25,217 16,968 Business Services Traded 104,488 1.26 $126,108 4,860
Commercial Services Local 73,087 0.93 $58,399 8,437
Community and Civic Organizations Local 66,269 1.40 $28,337 11,062 Education and Training Local 62,795 0.89 $58,026 3,855
Education and Knowledge Creation Traded 60,811 1.47 $93,136 4,620 Distribution and Electronic Commerce Traded 45,582 0.92 $83,203 3,534 Food and Beverage Processing and Distribution Local 40,106 1.08 $42,813 488 Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local 35,692 1.06 $34,587 4,914 Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise Local 33,693 0.88 $29,413 540 Logistical Services Local 33,156 1.35 $60,281 7,836
Motor Vehicle Products and Services Local 30,719 0.82 $55,142 3,778 Information Technology and Analytical Instruments Traded 28,864 2.67 $147,612 9,030 Hospitality and Tourism Traded 20,435 0.67 $64,846 3,057 Financial Services Local 18,245 0.74 $93,910 941
Household Goods and Services Local 16,838 1.01 $46,723 1,762 Automotive Traded 16,669 1.95 $109,487 10,746
Utilities Local 14,233 1.42 $119,879 (2,166)
Marketing, Design, and Publishing Traded 14,055 0.94 $102,814 1,517 Financial Services Traded 11,294 0.68 $135,368 (1,196)
Food Processing and Manufacturing Traded 11,023 1.15 $60,457 2,264 B146
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5 Cluster Traded / Local East Bay
Jobs in 2019
Location
Quotient in 2019
Average Annual
Wage1
Change in Jobs
2014-2019
Entertainment and Media Local 10,540 0.87 $38,448 (540) Insurance Services Traded 10,332 0.92 $141,754 4,178
Transportation and Logistics Traded 8,988 0.56 $79,686 2,332 Construction Products and Services Traded 7,880 0.90 $101,831 1,921 Performing Arts Traded 6,544 1.18 $39,011 51
Medical Devices Traded 5,191 2.17 $130,802 1,041
Oil and Gas Production and Transportation Traded 4,788 0.85 $176,944 (633) Industrial Products and Services Local 4,540 0.94 $72,031 (382) Biopharmaceuticals Traded 3,976 1.62 $134,556 987
Water Transportation Traded 3,811 1.34 $158,812 64
Communications Equipment and Services Traded 3,657 1.49 $129,526 (1,558) Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Traded 3,281 0.41 $99,550 32 Metalworking Technology Traded 2,716 0.68 $65,842 486
Lighting and Electrical Equipment Traded 2,683 1.00 $84,032 482 Printing Services Traded 2,476 0.67 $58,223 (561)
Plastics Traded 2,259 0.42 $56,986 103
Video Production and Distribution Traded 2,236 0.93 $159,802 13 Downstream Chemical Products Traded 2,149 0.94 $149,600 387 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG.
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6 TABLE 3. JOB GROWTH/RETRACTION PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO NATIONAL TRENDS FOR ANTIOCH’S LARGEST INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019), CITY OF ANTIOCH AND EAST BAY 2015-19 Growth Performance based on Shift Share
Analysis
Cluster Traded / Local Antioch East Bay
Health Services Local Better Worse
Hospitality Establishments Local Better Better
Real Estate, Construction, and Development Local Better Better Education and Training Local Worse Better
Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise Local Worse Better Community and Civic Organizations Local Better Better
Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local Worse Better
Food and Beverage Processing and Distribution Local Worse Worse Motor Vehicle Products and Services Local Better Better Commercial Services Local Worse Better
Business Services Traded Worse Worse
Utilities Local Better Worse
Logistical Services Local Better Better
Household Goods and Services Local Better Better
Distribution and Electronic Commerce Traded Better Worse Financial Services Local Worse Worse
Construction Products and Services Traded Better Better Education and Knowledge Creation Traded Worse Better
Entertainment and Media Local Worse Better
Hospitality and Tourism Traded Worse Better
Marketing, Design, and Publishing Traded Worse Better
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG.
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7 “Candidate” Clusters for Antioch’s Target Industry Program The following two tables (Tables 4 and 5) provide important existing clusters for the two geographic areas evaluated in this analysis: City of Antioch and the East Bay region. For each area, clusters are shown in the table if they are in the top 10 for at least one of the three variables:
1. 2019 Location Quotient (LQ)
2. Number of jobs in 2019
3. Job growth between 2014 and 2019
TABLE 4. TOP 10 CLUSTERS FOR KEY VARIABLES: LQ, JOBS, AND JOB GROWTH, ANTIOCH Cluster 2019 LQ 2019 Jobs 2014-19
Jobs Added
Local Retailing of Clothing and General Merch. 2.2 1,674 -55 Local Utilities 2.2 433 35
Environmental Services 1.9 40 25
Local Education and Training 1.7 2,420 -80
Local Community and Civic Organizations 1.7 1,532 267
Local Health Services 1.6 4,875 746
Water Transportation 1.5 81 41
Local Real Estate, Construction, and Development 1.4 2,674 608 Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) 1.4 894 5
Local Hospitality Establishments 1.3 2,849 407
Local Food and Beverage Processing and Distrib. 1.3 220 35 Local Motor Vehicle Products and Services 1.2 891 21
Local Commercial Services 1.2 890 172
Distribution and Electronic Commerce 0.8 399 65
Local Logistical Services 0.5 832 2
Construction Products and Services 0.3 308 90
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG. = Top 10 cluster for specified variable
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8 TABLE 5. TOP 10 CLUSTERS FOR KEY VARIABLES: LQ, JOBS, AND JOB GROWTH, EAST BAY Cluster 2019 LQ 2019 Jobs 2014-19
Jobs Added
Information Tech. and Analytical Instruments 2.7 28,864 9,030 Medical Devices 2.2 5,191 1,041
Automotive 2.0 16,669 10,746
Biopharmaceuticals 1.6 3,976 987
Communications Equipment and Services 1.5 3,657 -1,558
Education and Knowledge Creation 1.5 60,811 4,620
Local Utilities 1.4 14,233 -2,166
Local Community and Civic Organizations 1.4 66,269 11,062 Local Logistical Services 1.4 33,156 7,836
Water Transportation 1.3 3,811 64
Business Services 1.3 104,488 4,860
Local Real Estate, Construction, and Development 1.1 110,920 17,889 Local Food and Beverage Processing and Distrib. 1.1 40,106 488 Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) 1.1 35,692 4,914
Local Hospitality Establishments 1.0 108,584 16,968
Local Commercial Services 0.9 73,087 8,437
Distribution and Electronic Commerce 0.9 45,582 3,534
Local Education and Training 0.9 62,795 3,855
Local Health Services 0.9 136,075 11,094
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG. = Top 10 cluster for specified variable
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9 Table 6, on the following page, provides a preliminary list of candidate clusters for the City of Antioch’s industry targeting program (i.e., business retention, expansion and attraction). The preliminary candidate clusters are based on two strategic approaches to industry targeting:
1. Build on Antioch’s existing core strengths. In some cases (e.g., health services), the core clusters represent strong continuing growth opportunities that could be the focus of business expansion/attraction efforts. In other cases (e.g., the retail industry), the existing core clusters are currently recognized nationally as non-growth or declining industries (in these cases, the City’s industry targeting efforts would appropriately focus on retention/repositioning).
2. Tap into dominant East Bay clusters that are not currently well represented in Antioch. This strategic approach would seek to leverage Antioch’s competitive strengths to capture increasing shares of projected East Bay employment growth. This component of the City’s business attraction/marketing program would focus on the Antioch’s unique “selling points” relative to the larger Bay Area economy (including the city’s waterfront location, a resident workforce that includes large numbers of commuters potentially eager to work closer to home, and the availability of developable land suitable to land-intensive industries). In developing the preliminary list of candidates for the “tap into dominant East Bay clusters” strategy, the consultant has focused on clusters meeting the following criteria:
a. Traded clusters (local clusters are addressed in the other strategic approach); b. Clusters that experienced a net gain in jobs between 2014 and 2019; c. Clusters primarily oriented towards private business investment (in contrast to clusters that are substantially composed of public sector / nonprofit employment).1 On page 11, Table 7 summarizes key characteristics for the candidate clusters identified in Table 6. The characteristics include annual average wages, projected 10-year job growth (for the larger East Bay and Bay Area regions), and additional qualitative criteria. 1 Based on this criterion, the preliminary list excludes the “Local Community and Civic Organizations” clusters.
Whereas civic organizations are clearly critical to a healthy local economy, they are not typically part of an industry attraction effort. As appropriate, the need to leverage or expand the roles of these organizations in Antioch will be addressed in other components of the overall Economic Development Strategic Plan.
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10 TABLE 6. PRELIMINARY LIST OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS FOR ANTIOCH’S INDUSTRY PROGRAM Strategic Approach Local-serving Clusters “Traded” Clusters Build on (or facilitate repositioning of)
Antioch’s existing core strengths
• Health services
• Retail/personal services
• Hospitality
• Local real estate and construction services
• Food and beverage processing/distribution
• Local utilities
• Construction products (manufacturing)
• Water transportation
• Environmental services (waste
management)
• Distribution/electronic commerce
Tap into dominant East Bay industry clusters
that are not currently well represented in the
city
• IT and analytical instruments
• Medical devices mfg.
• Automotive mfg.
• Biopharmaceuticals
• Education and knowledge creation
• Business services
Source: TNDG
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11 TABLE 7. CHARACTERISTICS OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS
Candidate Cluster
Local or
Traded
Cluster?
Average (1)
Annual
Compensation
Projected 10-Year Job Growth
(net number of new jobs)
Does this cluster leverage Antioch’s
core competitive advantages?
East Bay Bay Area Waterfront
Workforce/
Commute
Industrial
Capacity
Antioch’s existing clusters:
Health services Local (2) $85,976 24,000 70,000 X
Retail/personal services Local $29,413 Job losses Job losses Hospitality Local $25,217 19,000 61,000
Real estate and construction Local $77,090 12,000 44,000 X Food and beverage
processing/distribution Local $42,813 300 1,200 X X
Utilities Local $119,879 Job losses Job losses X X
Construction products mfg. Traded $101,831 1,000 3,000 X X Water transportation Traded $158,812 600 800 X X
Environmental services Traded $78,566 120 200 X X
Distribution/electronic
commerce Traded $83,203 2,700 11,000 X X X
East Bay clusters:
IT and analytical instruments Traded $147,612 2,400 16,000 X X Medical devices mfg. Traded $130,802 1,200 No net growth X X Automotive mfg. Traded $109,487 8,000 9,000 X X
Biopharmaceuticals Traded $134,556 <100 2,000 X X
Education and knowledge
creation
Traded
$93,133 7,000 28,000
X
Business services Traded $126,108 15,000 112,000 X
(1) Average compensation based on averages for East Bay subregion. (2) Although the Health Services cluster is typically considered a local cluster, Antioch’s facilities serve the larger region to some extent.
Source: TNDG
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Framework for Citywide Economic Development Strategy
Note to Summit Meeting Participants:
The attached document provides a preliminary framework for a citywide Economic Development Strategic Plan for Antioch. The document is a work in progress, with some details purposely left blank at this time.
The strategic plan program areas outlined in the document represent a comprehensive, citywide approach to supporting Antioch’s competitiveness. The citywide framework will later be expanded to include detailed action plans for high-priority subareas (employment centers).
A total of 14 programs are grouped into three overarching categories:
Category 1: City administrative actions: Actions the City can undertake largely on its own without necessarily having to commit substantial additional resources.
Category 2: Substantial investment or creative use of limited resources: these are items that may require capital investments or other major resource commitments. Alternatively, to the extent funds are restricted, programmatic focus might shift toward low-cost design solutions.
Category 3: External partner focus: the City may have primarily a convening or other facilitating/coordinating role, encouraging partners to, potentially, align pursuit of their own interests with those of the City.
The programs in the three categories, taken together, constitute a cross-section of levels of effort, involvement of both internal (City) and external entities, and subject matter.
Preparation for Next Week’s Meeting. At the June 3rd Summit meeting, the consultant team will provide an overview each of the 14 recommended programs to the meeting participants. Consequently, attendees need not familiarize themselves with the full contents of the document ahead of the meeting; the document is provided now primarily for reference. For those interested in a quick orientation to the document prior to our meeting, pages 1 through 3 provide a summary of the contents.
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Document 2.3
Draft Citywide Framework for Antioch EDSP
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DRAFT
FRAMEWORK
FOR
CITYWIDE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Cover Photo Credit: “View of Antioch from Black Diamond Mines Regional Preserve” by LPS.1 – Own work.
Licensed under CC BY 4.0 via Wikipedia.com –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antioch,_California#/media/File:Antioch_California.jpg Prepared for:
City of Antioch
May 27, 2020
Prepared by:
T H E N A T E L S O N D A L E G R O U P , I N C .
Y O R B A L I N D A , C A • w w w . n a t e l s o n d a l e . c o m O : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 6 • F : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 7 B156
1 Strategic context for Antioch’s economic development program Scope and Intent of this Plan. Antioch – by virtue of its strategic position within the dynamic Bay Area economy and its capacity for new growth – has impressive economic development potentials. At the same time, the community faces a range of challenges (including crime, homelessness, aging commercial/industrial areas, and concerns about the quality of the public education system) which, if not systematically addressed, will tend to create significant “headwinds” for the City’s economic development efforts. The Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) outlined below is intended to balance a focus on leveraging Antioch’s positive attributes (through core economic development functions such as marketing, business retention/expansion/attraction, and entrepreneurial development) with appropriate attention to the community’s foundational challenges.
Given that the challenges facing older cities tend to be firmly entrenched and require substantial resources to fix, it is not realistic to expect that they be fully solved in a few years. Nor is it necessary that they be fully resolved in order for Antioch to make progress in attracting targeted new development (even in the most economically vibrant cities, positive and negative conditions often coexist). However, Antioch’s long-term success in economic development will be substantially enhanced by a comprehensive program that aggressively pursues new development/business opportunities while also charting a course for measurably improving foundational conditions over time.
The EDSP provides a citywide framework for Antioch’s economic development programming over the next 5-10 years. During the next stage of the planning process, area-specific strategies will be formulated for the high-priority employment centers that will be the initial focus of the City’s implementation efforts.
Big-picture Themes. Antioch shares many of the opportunities and challenges that suburban cities in dynamic urban regions have in common:
• The city’s original, historic economic function is less relevant today. • A principal driver of growth in the city and surrounding cities is housing development for a workforce largely focused on jobs concentrated more towards the urban core. This has the following two effects:
1. The city is constantly in catch-up mode with respect to maintaining a jobs/housing balance.
2. Retail development serving growing populations tends to follow the path of new residential development, and new shopping areas can out-compete existing locations. • Given its location within the larger region (and its strategic position relative to regional workforce commute patterns), the city is competitive for a range of economic activity, all other things being equal, which means that a comprehensive approach is generally desirable if not necessary to help ensure the attractiveness of the community currently and into the future – especially with respect to surrounding cities that are facing the same challenges/opportunities and also attempting to successfully address them.
• Historic areas in the community are unique assets but also tend to require ongoing investment and other special attention to maintain their relevancy.
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2 A simplified summary of Antioch’s current strategic situation is summarized in the diagram below:
Assets establish Strong Potentials:
Location in region
Workforce
Land/growth capacity
Waterfront access
To address Chronic Problems:
Blight
Crime
Homelessness
Education system
By applying Strategic Actions and,
immediately, Systematic Communication
to clarify and correct misconceptions
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3 Overview of strategy/program categories
The strategic plan citywide program areas outlined below represent a comprehensive approach to supporting Antioch’s competitiveness. A total of 14 programs are grouped into three overarching categories:
Category 1: City administrative actions: Actions the City can undertake largely on its own without necessarily having to commit substantial additional resources. These include:
1. Development streamlining
2. Diversify economy (industry/cluster targeting program)
3. Existing business retention/expansion
4. Marketing / business attraction
Category 2: Substantial investment or creative use of limited resources: these are items that may require capital investments or other major resource commitments. Alternatively, to the extent funds are restricted, programmatic focus might shift toward low-cost design solutions. These include:
5. Crime reduction efforts
6. Blight reduction efforts
7. Programs to reduce homelessness
8. Other Quality of Life initiatives - including coordinating how City entities such as the Recreation Department, Marina and others maintain a Quality of Life programmatic and marketing orientation
9. Placemaking (e.g., downtown)
10. Targeted infrastructure investment
Category 3: External partner focus: the City may have primarily a convening or other facilitating/coordinating role, encouraging partners to, potentially, align pursuit of their own interests with those of the City. These include:
11. K-12 Education
12. Workforce development
13. Entrepreneurial development
14. Leverage philanthropic resources
The programs in the three categories, taken together, constitute a cross-section of levels of effort, internal and external entities, and subject matter.
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4 CATEGORY 1: CITY ADMINISTRATIVE ACTIONS
The concept behind this group of strategic program areas is that they are processes that the City could design and implement largely independent of other entities.
Development Streamlining
The question of whether a city can improve its development approval processes, and should do so to increase their attractiveness to developers, is often much debated in the course of strategic planning processes. The issue tends to get to the heart of the relative “business friendliness” perception of the community, primarily on the part of outsiders. This perception in turn is often a matter of how the city compares to surrounding communities that are potentially competing for the same kind of development. These questions do not necessarily need to be settled within an economic development strategic planning process; it can be sufficient to simply review current conditions and consider adjustments, at least some of which may be relatively straightforward to put in place.
Some cities use expressions of their commitment to business friendliness as part of their economic development promotional materials. Key elements of such a program recently implemented by the City of Menifee in southern California served as a potential model for Antioch and are reproduced here (City of Menifee website, and the City has also produced a brochure in which their development process flow is branded “Streamline Menifee”). In addition to the branding, the strength of the program is based on the City’s commitment to complete each stage of project approval within specified timeframes.
POTENTIAL MODEL PROGRAM FOR ANTIOCH:
MENIFEE’S COMMITMENT TO BUSINESS PROSPECT
ASSISTANCE AND DEVELOPMENT STREAMLINING
Business Liaison Services: The Office of Economic Development offers a prospect a reliable single point of contact through every stage of the development process.
Site Selection Assistance: City staff will assist in compiling a list of possible business sites for a prospect, provide advice on zoning codes, and provide feedback about the need for additional permitting measures related to any particular location.
Accelerated Plan Check: a "Rapid Response Team” that serves as a project partner during any and all phases of the site selection, due diligence, entitlement, permitting, and construction processes. If an issue arises, the Rapid Response Team
collaborates with the City's’ Development Divisions to help resolve.
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5 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
1. DEVELOPMENT STREAMLINING
A. Analyze current development approval processes and approval tracking systems (including processes used by both Community Development and Public Works) and investigate options for expediting approvals (for example expanded use of program-level environmental impact reports; online permitting portals, giving applicants the option of hiring 3rd party certification of construction documents submitted for plan review, etc.).
Building Industry Association of the Bay
Area
CD-P
B. Review City user and processing fees and processes; evaluate options to create Economic Development incentive packages through adjustments to fees and processes, focused on cluster/industry targets.
CD-P
C. Tie whatever development streamlining procedures are put in place (and/or economic development incentive packages for industry targets) to a system for expediting in-City business relocations and expansions (through entitlements, permitting, etc.), as part of a Business Attraction and Business Retention and Expansion (BRE) program.
D. Consider methods by which approval systems can be more advantageous to developers, for example by deferring impact fee collection until a Certificate of Occupancy is issued.
CD-P
CD-B
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Competition among cities for what might be, for a time, limited development activity could make this issue more relevant and increase the importance of the City implementing highly visible development streamlining initiatives.
Municipalities have an added incentive to work with the business community to help businesses recover from the coronavirus shutdowns. These efforts, and the messages about such efforts, can be integrated with development streamlining measures.
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6 Diversify Economy
In Summit workshop meetings for this EDSP, participants expressed a desire to target certain industries for expansion in the City, including some with minimal or no representation in Antioch at present. These interests are expressed in the strategic program category outlined below. The means of achieving greater diversification of the economy are discussed in subsequent program categories of Existing Business Retention/Expansion, and Marketing/Business Attraction.
Strategy Group
Action Item
City lead Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City role
2. DIVERSIFY ECONOMY (INDUSTRY/CLUSTER TARGETING PROGRAM) A. Refine and prioritize cluster/industry targeting preferences identified in the EDSP, based on factors such as: 1) the nature of the existing cluster in the city, 2) complementarity or the potential for synergistic interrelationships with other clusters, existing economic activity in the city, etc., 3) presence of the cluster/industry within the East Bay, and 4) potential for physically accommodating typical prospect firms.
ED East Bay Economic
Development Alliance
B. Compile an initial prospect list, taking into consideration factors such as: 1) existing presence in the East Bay or larger Bay Area region, especially where locations would be expected to have become overly expensive, and 2) firms that may be underrepresented or absent in the region but need to be here because of the strength or expansion of related industries.
ED
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7 Existing Business Retention/Expansion (BRE)
A BRE program, once established as part of an economic development strategic plan, will also feed into the further development and ongoing updating of ED strategic plans. In this regard, strategies and actions that are helpful for existing firms are likely to also be relevant to prospective employers.
BRE tends to be the more visible form of local economic development activity, and so by default becomes a form of self-promotion for ED while also serving the primary purposes for which the outreach is conducted. BRE can therefore be recognized as a key mechanism for balancing ED programs directed towards attracting new businesses, which is especially important for cities that have determined a critical need for diversifying their economy through recruitment efforts.
Common objectives of a BRE program include:
• Identify any needs for business assistance.
• Connect businesses with available support resources.
• Probe businesses’ sense of locational advantages and
disadvantages of being in Antioch. These findings can then be related to the process of refining/updating industry targets. • Identify any needs for coordinating operational or expansion requirements with local regulatory bodies.
Major outputs from a BRE program include:
• Discovering community-level issues that may be helping or hindering a particular business, group of businesses or entire industry/cluster, or a geographic concentration of businesses. • Discovering issues outside the community’s purview affecting the health of businesses, in response to which the community could consider a range of responses, from offering remedial action to generating contingency plans in the face of possible downsizing or loss of such businesses. This is particularly important for the pandemic and post-pandemic period.
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8 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
3. EXISTING-BUSINESS RETENTION AND EXPANSION
A. Business Outreach. Utilize online surveys, business site visits and other typical economic development tools to design and initiate/expand communication with existing firms. These tools can be generated in-house or adapted from systems developed by others, which may offer some advantage of standardization and the ability (potentially) to compare results across other geographic areas.
ED Antioch Chamber of Commerce
Association of Manufacturers;
SFMade
A. Design the operational plan for implementing the program in consideration of budget and staffing, coordination with other economic development functions and strategic priorities, and similar considerations.
ED
B. Establish and maintain a contact database and integrated system for recording and compiling results of the outreach processes, maintaining contact and update schedules, and other details.
ED
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: This function (and the visibility of the City’s messaging about it) is especially important now. Local businesses that have been sidelined by the pandemic are likely to need additional assistance in restoring their operations, so many might be more receptive to this sort of outreach than they would otherwise be.
Marketing / business attraction
Marketing program design and activities related to economic development can be integrated into existing marketing initiatives underway in Antioch. The marketing framework can include, as an ancillary function, promoting the idea of an increasingly diversified economy for Antioch to existing residents, calling their attention to the general advantages of diversification and to specific advantages including having expanded employment options for youth and for the existing and anticipated future workforce.
The City of Antioch is currently in the process of designing and implementing a comprehensive branding/marketing program for its economic development initiatives. It is anticipated that this ongoing effort will be refined and refocused based on the strategic priorities identified in the EDSP.
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9 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
4. MARKETING
A. Develop marketing materials that reflect the comprehensive nature of planning and economic development programs within the City; closely coordinate economic development marketing with key partners.
East Bay Economic Development
Alliance;
Antioch Chamber of Commerce
B. Incorporate City’s mission concepts related to sustainability, quality-of-life, and citizen values into marketing materials. This would include reference to the pending update of the 2011 Community Climate Action Plan, the 2020 Climate Action & Resilience Plan, with specific reference to the added resilience measures.
CalRecycle
C. Coordinate messages to jointly promote real estate
development/revitalization along with industry targeting (for both local- serving and traded businesses).
ED
D. Continue to update and expand as appropriate the City’s economic development website page, which is already a comprehensive information resource as well as promotional tool, incorporating information such as key results of the economic development strategic planning process. Emphasis on the following two topics would be particularly appropriate: 1) how selected industry targets fit into the overall evolving economy of the city, and 2) the relationship of regional economic development partners, programs, etc. to city programs.
ED IS
E. Review marketing programs and materials used by economic development partners, as well as key competitors, locally and regionally, for message- consistency with Antioch programs/materials.
ED East Bay Economic Development
Alliance;
Antioch Chamber of Commerce
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: The same issue cited above pertaining to the potential for increased competition among cities increases the relevance of this strategy program area.
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10 Given the comprehensive effort and content of the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative Strategic Action Plan,1 relevant strategies from that document are included throughout this set of citywide strategies intended for inclusion in the EDSP. For this particular strategy group (Marketing) these strategies include the following:
• Establish a Competitive Economic Development Incentive Program that includes utility rebate/rate reduction programs from PG&E, sales and use tax exclusions, hiring credits, workforce training and job placement programs, FAR bonuses, deferral or waiver of fees, expedited permitting, and business tax exemptions.
• Establish and implement an Industrial Development Bond Program by leveraging existing programs offered by the East Bay EDA, CALED, California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank, and other entities.
• Actively market the Contra Costa County Recycling Market Development Zone (which includes all of Antioch) low-interest loan program.
1 Produced under the direction of the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Ad Hoc Committee of the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors and the Contra Costa County Department of Conservation and Development. Craft Consulting Group, 2019.
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11 CATEGORY 2: SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENT OR CREATIVE USE OF LIMITED RESOURCES The program areas grouped under this heading may require capital investment or other substantial resource commitments. Alternatively, to the extent funds are restricted, programmatic focus might shift toward low-cost design solutions.
Crime
Antioch compares favorably in 2019 crime rate figures for East Bay cities (over 100,000 population, for which data are available), as shown in the figure below. Compared to California cities in general, however, the East Bay region cities have generally high crime rates, suggesting that they would benefit by programs that coordinate efforts in crime prevention/reduction across jurisdictions.
Antioch compares favorably in 2019 crime rate figures for East Bay cities (over 100,000 population, for which data are available), as shown in the figure below. Compared to California cities in general, however, the East Bay region cities have generally high crime rates, suggesting that they would benefit by programs that coordinate efforts in crime prevention/reduction across jurisdictions.
The “crime image” of many cities can be a function of perception more than actual data, so public relations and marketing efforts that tend to correct these erroneous perceptions are justifiable.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
FREMONT
ANTIOCH
HAYWARD
CONCORD
RICHMOND
BERKELEY
OAKLAND
Property crime rate (per 1,000), 2019 Property crime rate, 2018 Violent crime rate, 2019 Violent crime rate, 2018
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12 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
5. CRIME REDUCTION
[Proposed actions pertaining to crime reduction will be drafted in close coordination with the Police Department, recognizing the multifaceted aspects of this issue.]
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Economic and social stress brought about by the pandemic could result in increased crime, so the issue is particularly relevant at this time.
Blight reduction efforts
The challenges typically associated with urban blight take on many dimensions in Antioch: aging residential and commercial neighborhoods, obsolescent land uses, homelessness, and crime associated with such conditions. Addressing blight can both ameliorate these conditions and also add to the quality of life in Antioch.
From the standpoint of overall City administration, blight reduction efforts would be an integral function of the Code Enforcement Division, and also the Building Inspection Division in their capacity of reviewing older structures in the city for health and safety hazards, and Environmental Resources would potentially also have a role, by supporting property owners’ efforts to increase efficiency in energy and other resource use, thereby providing another avenue by which property can be upgraded.
Strategies supporting the revitalization/redevelopment of buildings and neighborhoods also promote blight reduction. Attempts to revitalize areas of the city must recognize the additional challenges brought about by the fact that the retail industry is changing in fundamental ways.
Some of these changes are influencing the design of new retail centers and the viability of certain types of existing centers, particularly the traditional enclosed regional mall. Methods of reinvigorating these malls include: 1) redesigning and reconfiguring them into more contemporary formats, which often includes attempting to convert malls into something more like traditional main streets; 2) introducing different kinds of uses, such as offices, residential, hotels, or institutional uses, which may occur at higher densities; 3) changing the retail focus, for example from traditional department store anchors to discount department or other “big-box” stores.
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13 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
6. BLIGHT REDUCTION, INCLUDING REAL ESTATE
REVITALIZATION/REDEVELOPMENT
A. Investigate the potential for coordinating responsibilities within the three City entities having a role in blight reduction (Code Enforcement, Building Inspection, and Environmental Resources) to increase their focus on specific areas, properties, or neighborhoods where improvements can have implications for achieving economic development objectives. This team might be informally organized but could have a specific title, such as Blight Response Team. Areas for focusing these efforts would need to be identified, prioritized, etc. to maximize the effectiveness of this action.
CD-B
CD-C
CD-E
CD-P
B. Inventory older commercial areas that may be suitable for, and benefit by, revitalization, giving additional attention to the presence of Opportunity Zones in areas so designated, and to their potential to attract additional capital.
A. If resources permit, investigate and document options for repurposing sites and areas such as Somersville Mall. Options need to be considered in the context of whether or not some of these options could result in competition with Downtown. Another consideration is whether older commercial areas can be repurposed to produce uses that might be lacking in the community.
For example, small spaces for startup companies may be in short supply and repurposed older buildings can be relatively cost-effective.
CD-P
D. Review planning and zoning policies related to mixed-use development, and/or other regulations, guidelines, etc. that could encourage creative redevelopment projects, and incorporate appropriate concepts into revitalization area plans or (for example) special overlay districts that might be created relative to revitalization opportunities.
CD-P
E. Establish an outreach program to real estate developers active in Antioch and the region to assess interests in property revitalization while also directly promoting the community’s revitalization assets.
ED Building Industry Association of the Bay
Area
F. As appropriate, contact the owners of commercial properties that might benefit from revitalization efforts to assess interest and potential ED Commercial real estate brokers
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14 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
6. BLIGHT REDUCTION, INCLUDING REAL ESTATE
REVITALIZATION/REDEVELOPMENT
partnerships or other forms of public support to achieve revitalization / redevelopment goals.
G. Create and market incentives for redevelopment/revitalization of older properties (potentially including non-financial incentives such as expedited entitlements and permit processing).
ED CD-P
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Less-than-optimal economic conditions could increase the potential for blighted areas to expand or otherwise further downgrade, so strategic actions could be geographically targeted, prioritized, and implemented with this particular consideration at the forefront.
Relevant strategies from the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative Strategic Action Plan include the following:
• Foster Distinctive Communities with a Strong Sense of Place. • Protect and Restore Sensitive Wildlife Habitat and Wetlands. • Develop a Network of Interconnected Trail Systems and Bicycle Routes along the Northern Waterfront. (page 7)
Programs to Reduce Homelessness
Homelessness is a national problem, but some regions and some individual cities feel compelled to address the problem; although truly effective solutions are generally elusive. To address the problem in terms of the causes of homelessness, regionwide if not statewide (and national if possible) approaches are almost certain to be more effective than those attempted by individual cities. Resources can be pooled, and city- specific locations may generally be irrelevant to most homeless persons.
There are a limited number of nonprofit organizations addressing homelessness in the region, some of which focus on specific clientele such as veterans, some are providing services only and some provide emergency and/or transitional housing. A partial list includes the following organizations:
• Bay Area Rescue Mission, Richmond. Services include emergency and transitional housing, meals, and life coaching.
• Abode Services, Fremont. Abode Services' mission is to end homelessness by assisting low-income, un-housed people, including those with special needs, to secure stable, supportive housing; and to be advocates for the removal of the causes of homelessness (serving Alameda, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, and Napa counties).
• Homeless Action Center, Oakland, primarily provides legal and other advisory services to marginalized populations
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15 • East Oakland Community Project, provides emergency and transitional housing and support services
• Operation Dignity, Oakland. Operation Dignity serves homeless and at-risk veterans, their families, and the communities they live in, by providing emergency, transitional, and permanent housing; comprehensive outreach and support services, and a strong peer community
• Swords to Plowshares – East Bay, Oakland. Services provided by this group that are key to addressing homelessness include the following:
o Health & Social Services: Frontline Drop-in Center provides critical care to help homeless and low-income veterans
2 East Bay Times: https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2019/09/16/stand-down-on- the-delta-coming-to-antioch-for-at-risk-vets/
o improve their health, wellness and long-term stability. The Drop-in Center can be a gateway to the organization’s
continuum of care, the holistic model upon which service delivery is based.
o Supportive Housing: Stabilization and supportive housing programs, combined with a continuum of care, provides
homeless veterans with the stability and support they need to rebuild their lives.
• Stand Down on the Delta is a periodic event held at the fairgrounds in Antioch intended to provide veterans with medical and personal services as well as guidance on home purchasing.2
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16 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
7. REDUCE HOMELESSNESS
A. Define a relevant region for doing so and inventory existing organizational and other resources involved in the goal of reducing homelessness, through general programmatic social support, actual provision of housing, or working in the arena of promoting or providing affordable housing, compiling results in a database that addresses type of support, geographic areas of focus, nature of funding, and similar details.
Bay Area Rescue Mission, Richmond;
Abode Services, Fremont;
Homeless Action Center, Oakland;
East Oakland Community Project;
Operation Dignity, Oakland;
Swords to Plowshares – East Bay;
Stand Down on the Delta
B. Using the compiled database, identify existing strengths and deficiencies, and gaps, in how this issue is being addressed in the region, programmatic or geographic areas where additional support might be most effective in leveraging existing resources, and similar considerations.
East Bay Economic Development
Alliance;
C. Based on the information compiled, investigate the potential for regional coalitions or other joint efforts pertaining to homelessness, and propose such efforts as appropriate where they are lacking and appear to have some possibility of succeeding.
D. Review City plans and policies that potentially impact homelessness in Antioch, or in neighboring communities, review these in the context of other information assembled (as described above), and recommend plan/policy or investment changes as appropriate
CD-P
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: The pandemic will almost certainly add to the problem of homelessness, both in terms of numbers of people affected and also the severity of their social assistance needs, so short-term remedies might be more important than long- term solutions in the immediate future.
Other Quality of Life Initiatives
A key aspect of this strategic program category is to recognize that improvements to quality-of-life can come about through programs that may have a specific other “practical” focus. By maintaining attention on these kinds of interrelationships, some focus on the possibilities for enhancing quality of life will be sustained. The somewhat nebulous concept of enhancing quality of life is especially important in Antioch, given the evidence of certain negative images on the part of some non- residents and residents alike that have taken hold.
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17 Assets and administrative areas within the city that have a direct relationship to quality of life assets and initiatives include: The Recreation Department and Parks & Landscaping, Streets, and The Marina within the Public Works Department. To the extent practical, the programs and activities within these different entities that have a quality of life component can be coordinated in a way that maintains a focus on both effective implementation and maximizing economic development potential associated with these assets.
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18 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
8. QUALITY OF LIFE ENHANCEMENTS
A. Activities in this category need to be closely coordinated with the Placemaking section, where part of the intent is to make improvements that enhance identity of the community in concert with assets that improve quality of life through, for example, creating public open spaces/landmarks, and recreational areas.
CD-P
B. To the extent practical, coordinate the programs and activities within the different City entities that have a quality of life component (Recreation Department and Parks & Landscaping, Streets, and The Marina) to establish a focus on both effective implementation and on maximizing economic development potential associated with these assets.
ED Rec
PW-P
PW-Mar
C. In other planning processes for the City, explicitly incorporate and recognize quality of life components.
D. Include quality-of-life programs, along with planned, emerging, and developed related assets, within Antioch marketing materials, recognizing the value of this kind of positive messaging to offset certain existing negative perceptions.
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: The configuration and use of public areas could change significantly and on a long- term basis as a result of the pandemic experience, so the possibility of such changes needs to be closely monitored along with the potential need for design and other updates to existing and planned public spaces. Some commentators on the long-term effects of the pandemic have noted that suburbs may be more favored than urban cores, for both residential and economic activity. The perception of the City’s quality of life will be important deciding factors for potential business and workforce relocatees.
Placemaking (e.g., Downtown)
Similarly to quality-of-life considerations, placemaking can accompany – that is, be integrated into – other strategies that have been put in place to serve primarily utilitarian purposes. Also, placemaking relates directly to efforts to address entrenched issues such as blight, crime and homelessness; improve public education; and otherwise enhance quality of life.
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19 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
9. PLACEMAKING
A. Within the framework of activities related to blight reduction, identify and cultivate the potential for revitalizing areas to serve as a focus for the community: for welcoming visitors and providing public spaces, landmark structures, and generally enhancing quality of life.
CD-P
B. Consider expanding the range of special events in the city, focusing on events that have strong potentials to reinforce placemaking efforts.
Promote/prioritize placemaking locations as a destination for these events, potentially offering expedited permitting, and user-friendly insurance requirements, for example.
Antioch Chamber of Commerce
C. Market publicly owned sites, as available (e.g. in Downtown/waterfront areas), with the intent to preserve key properties for preferred business types or residential projects.
D. Recognize and encourage as appropriate the role of housing in locations with placemaking potential, to add to the local consumer base and also general liveliness of the area. Include consideration of how unique places can be locations for housing that might not be as accepted in regular, established residential neighborhoods.
CD-P
E. Focus grant opportunities (for infrastructure, etc.) on areas with placemaking potential, based on, as appropriate, thematic priorities such as the following: walkability, livable community, and sustainability.
PW-CI
PW-S
PW-P
Placemaking specific to Downtown
F. The City’s 5-Year Capital Improvement Program 2019-2024 includes many projects specific to the Downtown area. These efforts can be continued and expanded upon in future years, with particular focus on interrelating such projects for maximum synergistic effect.
PW-CI
G. Identify and promote actions to encourage the placemaking potential of the Downtown area within the framework of the Downtown Area Plan.
PW-Mar
H. Consider the viability of establishing a geographically focused entrepreneurial start-up funding assistance program (public/private partnership) specific to Downtown for targeted or otherwise preferred business types.
ED (See Entrepreneurial Development
strategies)
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20 Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: The same issues mentioned in relation to quality-of-life apply to placemaking as well.
Targeted Infrastructure Investment
Transportation is a major infrastructure element in most communities, and transportation systems in Antioch and their integration into the community are still evolving. Creative thinking related to transportation should involve at least the following considerations:
• The transit service represented by the BART line extension and new station may help attract younger workers, who seem to be more amenable to this type of commuting.
• Self-driving cars and trucks (and recreational vehicles, etc.) will change many aspects of the relationship between transportation and land use, and therefore between where people live and where they work, shop, recreate, etc.
The nature, extent, and pace of this change are unknown at this time, but policymakers can closely monitor the technological, policy, and other trends that will foreshadow what we should expect to be an imminent major overhaul in how transportation services are provided.
Effects could be felt in, for example: 1) a change in the general attractiveness of the region to the extent it is, or is perceived to be, more, or less, accessible; 2) the greater flexibility in working with areas targeted for revitalization if parking space and access requirements are significantly reduced; 3) the need to repurpose certain auto-oriented uses (e.g. parking garages) in order to maintain basic functionality.
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21 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. Agencies Priority level/City
role
10. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION
A. Coordinate with other City departments and other utility/service providers to: 1) ensure that core resources are adequate to accommodate targeted cluster and other development/business growth, generally for locations where these activities would be expected to locate; and 2) coordinate remedial actions as available/feasible.
ED BART
Tri Delta Transit
PW-W
PW-Eng
B. Review the existing Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) to identify planned projects particularly supportive of economic development efforts as outlined in the EDSP, and for opportunities to re-prioritize such projects, as appropriate. Include consideration of how certain improvements can also contribute indirectly to economic development efforts based on enhancing attractiveness of the community, quality-of-life, etc. (e.g. alternative transportation options).
ED PW-CI
C. Prioritize projects in future CIP updates based on the EDSP and its “trajectory” of implementation.
ED PW-CI
D. Given the rapid changes in transportation-related technology, as one example, monitor ongoing technology-driven changes in infrastructure requirements, for all infrastructure types and create “technology infrastructure” improvements plan that anticipates to the extent possible changes in infrastructure requirements and prioritizes critical investments in response to such changes. This action will likely also involve coordination with regional transportation planning organizations and other regional infrastructure entities.
Metropolitan Transportation
Commission (MTC);
PW-S
E. As an expansion of the preceding, Antioch could choose to position itself as a leader in creating strategies for adapting to the onset of autonomous vehicles. This can not only enhance functionality of the community, but also serve as a way for Antioch to distinguish itself from an economic development strategic point of view.
ED CD-P
PW-CI
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: The pandemic experience could, to varying degrees, exert another influence on the evolution of transportation systems already subject to change as noted above. Experiences of other cities can be monitored as one way of remaining current on this topic.
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22 CATEGORY 3: EXTERNAL PARTNER FOCUS
Economic development partners for Antioch include Contra Costa County and the East Bay Economic Development Alliance. The East Bay EDA “. . . serves as the regional voice and networking resource for strengthening the economy, building the workforce and enhancing the quality of life in the East Bay (Alameda and Contra Costa Counties).” The organization’s initiatives are directed by the committees of: Business & Employer Resources, Economic Development Directors’ Council, International Trade & Investment, Land Use & Infrastructure, and Marketing & Public Relations. Resources provided by East Bay EDA include, along with other relevant reports:
• An interactive map displaying a wide range of business resources:
https://eastbayeda.org/region/
• The East Bay Economic Outlook Report, an annual overview of the economy, industry sectors, and related information.
• 2020 [annual] East Bay Book of Lists, which includes lists of top-ranking businesses and other relevant information.
• 2019 East Bay Manufacturing, summarizing manufacturing sector data, major manufacturing employers, and industry resources.
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23 K-12 Education
Although school districts operate independently of municipalities, their role in a community’s success can be profound. Also, school districts can sometimes find ways to innovate, for example by adopting STEM/STEAM programs that are already developed, and that become cost-effective ways to support local economic development.
Strategy Group
Action Item
City lead Partners, coord. Agencies Priority level/City role
11. K-12 EDUCATION
A. Identify and find ways to support innovative educational and work- orientation programs undertaken by the school districts, and encourage programs that synchronize with economic development and quality of life goals in Antioch.
ED All school districts
B. Prepare profiles of: 1) workforce skills needed by existing major employers and target industries in Antioch, and 2) the Antioch resident workforce.
C. “Map” K-12 curricula and other assets as these relate to regional higher education resources relevant to business development (BRE plus industry targeting) in Antioch, plus the City’s resident workforce.
D. Explore the potential for convening and institutionalizing coordination mechanisms by which school district personnel, representatives of higher education, and key employers can work together to align education with current and evolving workforce needs.
ED All school districts
Regional community colleges
and universities
E. Establish appropriate metrics for annually measuring the extent to which Antioch-area students are prepared for careers in relevant local/targeted industries and otherwise have appropriate higher education and general career opportunities. Find metrics that allow comparisons with other California students.
Workforce Development
Mismatches between the workforce-skills requirements of local industries and the locally available workforce and workforce training resources are common throughout the country, in some cases in spite of focused efforts to align these two conditions. Some of the dimensions of this challenge include the following:
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24 • The rapid pace of change in workforce requirements, with increasing use of automation across virtually all industries, means that workers face the challenge of frequently updating their existing skills or even cross-training into other skill sets. Meanwhile education/training institutions attempt to keep their teaching expertise up-to-date and also obtain new technology essential for training purposes – some while facing the usual budget constraints of public institutions.
• Employers in manufacturing and other blue-collar sectors, throughout the US, frequently express concern about the US educational system’s (K-12) focus on college preparation when there are many well-paying technical jobs that require training and general job preparation that differ from most university curricula.
High school students tend to be unaware of these opportunities, and in some places manufacturing organizations and individual firms conduct special outreach programs to help remedy this.
Workforce resources
• Contra Costa Community College District, headquartered in Martinez, has three community colleges in the region:
• Contra Costa College (CCC), San Pablo, which has programs that include the Center for Science Excellence, the green Automotive Services program, the Nursing program, and the Culinary Arts program.
• Diablo Valley College (DVC), in Pleasant Hill and San Ramon, claims to be among the top transfer pathways to UC Berkeley.
• Los Medanos College (LMC) has its main campus in Pittsburg, with a center in Brentwood. Key features include the only honors program
certified as part of the UCLA Transfer Alliance, and programs in Engineering, Nursing, Communication Studies, Child Development, Instrumentation Technology, Mathematics, and Process Technology (among others). The college also has a CalWORKs program.
Adult Education Centers in the region include:
• Brentwood Liberty Adult Education Center,
• Pittsburg Adult Education Center, and
• Mt. Diablo Adult Education
An Antioch-based education/training resource is Opportunity Junction, with career training in Healthcare and Administration. Its Certified Nursing Assistant (CNA) training program is conducted in partnership with Mt. Diablo Adult Education (Concord) and Ombudsman Services of Solano & Contra Costa (Pleasant Hill). The organization also provides internships and job placement assistance, classes in life skills, and staffing services for employer partners.
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25 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
12. WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
A. Workforce Development Coordination. Establish a system for and implement coordination with local / regional educational / workforce- development organizations. An initial goal would be to assess the match between the full range of available workforce training resources and the City’s business development efforts and industry targeting. This action can also be informed by the results of retention / expansion (BRE) processes and other findings related to employer outreach.
ED Contra Costa College;
Diablo Valley College;
Los Medanos College;
Opportunity Junction;
Brentwood Liberty Adult Ed. Center;
Pittsburg Adult Education Center;
Mt. Diablo Adult Education
B. Identify workforce development programs that can also be positioned as “incentives” in marketing and industry targeting efforts.
ED
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Employment disruptions brought about by the pandemic should increase the demand for alternative employment options and retraining will be necessary for at least some of those options to be realized.
Entrepreneurial Development
As with most regions across the country with relatively vibrant economies, existing entrepreneurial support organizations are situated in various Bay Area locations, but tend to be concentrated within the “premium” tech-employment locations rather than the outer suburbs.
There may be opportunities to both expand entrepreneurs’ access to supportive facilities and their programs and raise the profile of Antioch as an entrepreneurial hub.
Examples of incubators in region
• iValley Innovation Center, San Ramon, is an Innovation advisory and startup engagement platform for Financial Services and host of FintechTalk, an event to link Silicon Valley with Financial Services. [From webpage description]
• BRIIA (Bishop Ranch Intelligence Innovation Accelerator), San Ramon. BRIIA gives early-stage entrepreneurs the resources to start and grow companies that are fueled by machine learning, artificial intelligence, natural language processing and related technologies. [Webpage description]
• GE Digital Foundry, San Ramon. The Digital Industrial Foundries are innovative spaces—located in San Ramon, Shanghai, and Paris— where customers can learn how to put the Industrial Internet to work by participating in introduction & awareness sessions, digital transformation consultations, and the co-development of new solutions. [Webpage description]
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26 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
13. ENTREPRENEURIAL DEVELOPMENT
A. Investigate extent to which existing entrepreneurial-development programs / facilities in the region meet the needs of actual or prospective entrepreneurs in Antioch, recognizing that different types of support are needed by local-consumer startups and startups in tech or other traded cluster activities.
ED
iValley Innovation Center;
BRIIA (Bishop Ranch Intelligence
Innovation Accelerator;
GE Digital Foundry;
Community Colleges B. Explore ways the City can maximize its coordination with the business model of the most accessible / relevant incubator operators in the region and their tenant focus.
ED
C. Confirm the relevance of tying into an existing networking system / program directed towards entrepreneurs (e.g. 1 Million Cups, which combines grassroots organizing with a national network and has a Bay Area presence in San Francisco only at this point), as a means of expanding entrepreneurs’ awareness of one another and relevant resources.
ED 1 Million Cups
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Employment disruptions from the pandemic may result in more people than usual attempting to pursue entrepreneurial options.
Relevant strategies from the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative Strategic Action Plan include the following:
Encourage development of Makerspaces [and /or Shared Co- Workspaces] that combine shared facilities and equipment with business assistance and subject matter experts . . . (page 6) • Actively Recruit New Startups by partnering with local universities and research labs to recruit companies acquiring technology and intellectual property for commercialization . . . (page 7) • Leverage Existing Assets such as the GOMENTUM STATION autonomous-vehicle test bed facility in Concord to attract advanced transportation technology companies (page 7).
(GoMentum Station in Concord, California claims to be the nation’s largest secure facility dedicated to connected and automated vehicle testing.)
Other relevant strategies from the Northern Waterfront Economic Development Initiative Strategic Action Plan that specifically address incubators include the following (page 12):
• Investigate the feasibility of establishing an Advanced Manufacturing Incubator/Accelerator
• Explore the opportunity for development of a Commercial Kitchen/Food Business Incubator like Kitchen@812 in Pinole. • Investigate the feasibility of Launching a Non-profit Cleantech Accelerator.
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27 Leverage Philanthropic Resources
The philanthropic information resource Candid3 lists over 400 grant- making foundations in the San Francisco metropolitan region. Twenty- seven of these are in the 13 East Bay cities of: Berkeley, Concord, Danville, Dublin, Fremont, Lafayette, Moraga, Oakland, Orinda, Pleasanton, Richmond. San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Of these, the top 10 organizations in terms of total giving for the most recent year data are available are the following:
• Wayne & Gladys Valley Foundation
• East Bay Community Foundation
• The Larry Ellison Foundation
• College Futures Foundation
• Kenneth Rainin Foundation
• Dornsife Family Foundation
• The Clorox Company Foundation
• Quest Foundation
• Y & H Soda Foundation
• Simpson PSB Fund
Combined assets of this group total in excess of $2 billion. 3 Candidco.com, an organization formed from the merging of Foundation Center and GuideStar.
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28 Strategy Group
Action Item
City
lead
Partners, coord. agencies Priority level/City
role
14. LEVERAGE PHILANTHROPIC RESOURCES
A. Review Antioch social, economic, physical, etc. needs and strategic objectives, or existing programs, and identify those that could potentially find additional support from philanthropic organizations.
ED CD-P
B. Using Candid or some other resource, screen and compile a database on organizations that could potentially help support Antioch social or economic objectives/programs.
ED
C. Using the compiled database, submit grant applications or conduct outreach or other follow-up as appropriate.
Initial observations regarding the pandemic’s influence on strategies: Funds from philanthropic organizations will probably be in high demand as one way of attempting to mitigate pandemic-related problems.
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29 LEGEND for Antioch City Government
Department Abbreviation
Administration Admin
Animal Services AS
Community Development CD
Building Division CD-B
Code Enforcement Division CD-C
Environment Resources CD-E
Planning Division CD-P
Economic Development ED
Finance Fin
Water Services WS
Human Resources HS
Information Systems IS
Recreation Department Rec
Police PD
Public Works PW
Capital Improvements PW-CI
Engineering Division PW-Eng
GIS PW-GIS
Marina PW-Mar
Parks PW-P
Streets PW-S
Water Distribution PW-W
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Document 2.4
Briefing to City Council, Prioritizing Employment Centers (09-22-2020)
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CITY OF ANTIOCH
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASELINE
AND STRATEGIC PLANS
STATUS BRIEFING FOR CITY COUNCIL
September 22, 2020
T H E N A T E L S O N D A L E G R O U P , I N C .
Y O R B A L I N D A , C A • w w w . n a t e l s o n d a l e . c o m O : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 6 • F : 7 1 4 . 6 9 2 . 9 5 9 7 B187
Table of Contents
Overview of Process ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Summary of Research Findings ..................................................................................................................... 1 Summary of Industry Cluster Analysis .......................................................................................................... 7 Stakeholder Input and Draft Citywide Strategies ....................................................................................... 14 Development Focus Areas and Selection of Two Areas for Detailed Strategy Development .................... 25 B188
Economic Developent Baseline and Strategic Plans
Status Briefing for City Council
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
1 Overview of Process
The overall process for the Antioch Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans is summarized in the following points. This briefing package touches on all of these points, although topics are organized here in a slightly different order.
• Provide background research about Antioch’s current economic conditions • Identify industry clusters that Antioch could potentially target for future expansion and attraction • Complete an analysis of area-specific conditions and development capacities for each of Antioch’s distinct employment centers
• Assess a range of “foundational issues” (including infrastructure, workforce, housing, quality of life, development environment) and recommend strategies
• Prepare strategic Action Plans (citywide programs and area-specific implementation strategies) based on the consultants’ research and local stakeholder input
Summary of Research Findings
Economic and demographic profile summary
Census-based demographic and resident economic data. Topics address current conditions related to households, housing units, race/ethnicity, and characteristics of the resident labor force (commute times, educational attainment). Key points are summarized below, and generally include comparisons to the East Bay1 and the State of California:
• In terms of household income ranges, Antioch’s largest share of households (18.5%) are in the $100,000 to $149,999 range. Median household income in Antioch ($69,925) is in line with the State and below the East Bay median ($86,767). In contrast, Antioch’s average (as distinct from then median) household income level ($85,001) is slightly below the State’s and well below the East Bay’s ($116,959).
• The labor force data show that three-fourths (74.9%) of Antioch’s residents in the 20 to 64-age population are in the labor force. This share is slightly below the East Bay (78.9%) and State (76.4%) figures. The largest difference in Labor force participation rates by educational attainment is in the bachelor’s degree or higher category. Among residents in this category, Antioch’s labor force participation rate (80.4%) is about 5 percentage points below the East Bay (85.5%) and State (85.3%) rates.
• In terms of travel times to work, Antioch’s residents tend to have longer commutes than their East Bay or California counterparts. Among the 12 categories of commute time intervals for Antioch working residents reported by the Census, the category with the highest percentage (17.3%) is the range of 60 to 89 minutes, which is above the East Bay (13.5%) and State (8.0%) figures. Further, almost two-thirds 1 The East Bay region consists of Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.
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2 (64.9%) have commute times of 30 minutes or more. Comparable figures for the East Bay and State’s labor forces are 53.4% and 42.4%, respectively.
• For the 18 to 24-age population, Antioch underperforms in terms of educational attainment compared to the East Bay region and the State. For this age group, about 17.4% of Antioch residents are in the less than high school graduate category, compared to 11.0% and 12.3% for the East Bay and State, respectively. For the age group “25 years and over,” about 21.0% of the City’s population has a bachelor’s degree or a graduate or professional degree. This share is well below the shares for the East Bay (43.1%) and the State (32.6%).
• One-third of Antioch’s population (33.3%) is of Hispanic/Latino origin, which is above the East Bay (23.6%) but below the State (38.8%) shares. In terms of race, the “Black or African American alone” category is a higher proportion in Antioch (20.1%), relative to the East Bay (10.1%) and the State (5.8%). The “Asian alone” racial category is relatively low in Antioch (10.9%) relative to the East Bay (23.7%) and the State (14.1%).
Housing. Antioch has relatively few vacant housing units (94.6% are occupied). This share is in line with the East Bay figure (95.3%) and slightly above the State figure (92.1%). Antioch also has a slightly higher share of owner-occupied housing units, about 60.8% of the total, relative to the East Bay (58.1%) and the State (54.5%).
Antioch’s housing stock is also relatively new: about 38.3% of the City’s total have been built since 1990. This figure is much higher than the comparable East Bay (21.9%) and State (24.5%) shares.
Forecasts
The charts below demonstrate that Antioch’s population is projected to grow at a similar rate as the East Bay and remaining ABAG counties, from 2020-2030, and at a considerably higher rate for 2030-2040. Employment growth in Antioch is also projected to occur at a higher rate than the regions, for the entire time period of 2020 through 2040.2
2 The ABAG region overall includes the following nine counties: Alameda, Contra Costa (the East Bay), Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.
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3 FORECAST PERCENT OF POPULATION CHANGE, ANTIOCH AND REGIONS Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
9.0%
15.7%
10.1%
11.3%
9.5%
11.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2020-30 Period 2030-40 Period
Antioch East Bay Other ABAG
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4 FORECAST PERCENT OF EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, ANTIOCH AND REGIONS Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
The following table shows existing and projected jobs/housing ratios for Antioch, the East Bay region, and the remaining ABAG counties. The table shows that Antioch has a considerably lower jobs/housing balance than the East Bay and remaining ABAG counties. According to the ABAG forecasts, Antioch’s jobs/housing ratio is projected to slightly decrease through 2040.
ABAG REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST FOR JOBS/HOUSING RATIO: ANTIOCH AND REGIONS Region
Jobs / Households
2020 2030 2040
Antioch 0.67 0.67 0.64
East Bay 1.25 1.23 1.20
Other ABAG Counties 1.53 1.50 1.46
Source: ABAG Plan Bay Area 2040; TNDG.
8.4%
8.8%
6.8% 6.7%
6.4% 6.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2020-30 Period 2030-40 Period
Antioch East Bay Other ABAG
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5 Labor force, employment
During the recovery from the Great Recession (between 2010 and 2015), Antioch’s unemployment rates were significantly above those in the East Bay and in California, reaching a high of 14.8% in 2010 (while the East Bay was only 10.9%). During the past three years, this gap has narrowed; Antioch’s 2018 unemployment rate (4.1%) was similar to the State (4.2%) but still above the East Bay rate (3.1%).
During the period of 2009-2018 (which includes in the early years a period of job losses) Antioch’s labor force grew more slowly (0.5%) compared to the East Bay (1.1%) and the State (0.7%).
Antioch has a relatively large share of its labor force that both lives and works in the City. At 10.6%, Antioch’s measure of labor force locational “efficiency” ranks 5th among the 19 cities in the County. The average labor force efficiency measure for cities in Contra Costa County is 7.8% (these numbers might seem to suggest a relative inefficiency in terms of where people live and work, but these low percentages are fairly typical among suburban communities across the US).
Antioch has only about half the jobs located in the City as the City has resident workers. For those jobs located in the City, the share of employment by industry in 2017 is shown in the following figure, which indicates that Antioch is heavily represented in the Retail Trade and Health Care/Social Assistance industries. These two sectors alone account for about one-half of total City-based jobs.
ANTIOCH’S PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS IN THE COMMUNITY, BY INDUSTRY Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. Accessed at https://onthemap.ces.census.gov.
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6 Assessed valuation
Net assessed valuation of property in Antioch increased by more than $3.6 billion over the period FY 2010-11 to FY 2018-19. This represents a percentage increase of 51.2%, higher than the same-period percentage increase for the entire County (45.8% increase).
Building permits
Residential building activity in Antioch consistently increased/remained high between 2011 and 2013, with a significant drop in 2014. Permit totals (and associated value of permitted projects) have remained relatively depressed through 2018. In 2018, with 6.2% of residential building permits County-wide, Antioch ranked sixth in number of permits among 15 Contra Costa County cities (with Brentwood having over 30% of the County’s total permits that year).
TOTAL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS, CITY OF ANTIOCH, 2010 TO 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division; City of Antioch; TNDG.
Taxable sales
Between 2010 and 2017 taxable retail sales for the City of Antioch increased by $192.9 million, or by 27%, well below the increases in the East Bay (49%) and State (41%). Taxable sales data also show that Antioch significantly lags the East Bay and the State on a taxable-sales-per-household basis, and the gap has widened since 2010. Antioch’s taxable sales per household in 2017 were 79% of the East Bay sales-per-household measure ($34,535) and 76% of the State measure ($35,578). In contrast, Antioch’s taxable sales per household figure was 86% of the State figure in 2010.
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
# of permits
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7 Summary of Industry Cluster Analysis
This section documents an assessment of Antioch’s economy in terms of industry “clusters,” which forms the basis for recommending potential target industries. Clusters are groups of interrelated industry sectors whose growth potentials within a region tend to be closely aligned. The tendency of individual industries to co-locate in clusters reflects linkages through supply-chain relationships, as well as commonalities in terms of workforce requirements and infrastructure needs. The concept of industry clusters is an effective framework for economic development programming since it reflects a holistic view of the regional economic conditions driving the growth or retraction of individual sectors. (The clusters analyzed in this study are based on definitions (i.e., industry groupings) from the U.S. Cluster Mapping Project, an economic development initiative led by Harvard Business School’s Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness.) Clusters are classified under the two headings of “local” and “traded.” • Local clusters typically form the core of a region’s economy; they primarily provide goods and services for the local (resident) population. They tend to account for the majority of jobs in a region (in the case of Antioch, local clusters represent 88% of total jobs), and support quality of life by providing a diverse range of goods and services.
• Traded clusters are “export-oriented” in the sense that they include industries that are engaged in producing goods and services for end-use customers located outside the City. Although traded clusters represent only 9% of the jobs in Antioch, they are important from an economic development perspective given that they tend to have higher wages and higher “multiplier impacts” compared to local clusters. That is, they have a strong potential to inject new dollars for circulation within the local economy and thereby serve as “drivers” for broader economic growth.
Table A below3 lists all local and traded clusters that had 100 or more jobs in Antioch in 2019, and provides the following information about each listed cluster:
• Total number of jobs in Antioch in 2019 (the latest full year for which data are available) • Location Quotient (compared to the U.S. as the benchmark area) in 2019. The location quotient (LQ) measures how concentrated/important an industry cluster is in a location (Antioch) compared to the benchmark area. An LQ value greater than 1.0 indicates that a cluster is more concentrated in the location than it is nationally (with the nation as the benchmark). This is generally regarded as an indication that the location has a comparative advantage relative to a particular cluster, although (especially for local clusters) an LQ below 1.0 can indicate a potential growth opportunity • Average annual wage in Antioch
• Change in the number of jobs for the most recent five-year period, 2014-2019 Table B summarizes cluster job growth/retraction performance in Antioch and in the East Bay region compared to national trends. This information is based on a “shift-share” analysis for each cluster that estimates an “expected” job change based on national trends. If Antioch (or the East Bay) has higher job growth (or 3 Tables are numbered in this section only for convenience of the reader.
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8 experiences less severe job losses) compared to the expected change, it indicates that the City (or East Bay) has performed better than national trends. Conversely, if Antioch/East Bay has less job growth (or experiences more severe job losses) compared to the expected change, it indicates that the city/region has performed worse than national trends.
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9 TABLE A. SUMMARY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS, ANTIOCH’S LARGEST INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019) Cluster Traded / Local Antioch
Jobs in 2019
Location
Quotient in 2019
Average Annual
Wage
Change in Jobs
2014-2019
Health Services Local 4,875 1.61 $91,027 746
Hospitality Establishments Local 2,849 1.32 $23,070 407 Real Estate, Construction, and Development Local 2,674 1.37 $69,245 608 Education and Training Local 2,420 1.75 $53,436 -80
Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise Local 1,674 2.24 $29,405 -55 Community and Civic Organizations Local 1,532 1.65 $22,168 267 Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local 894 1.36 $35,008 5 Food and Beverage Processing and Distribution Local 891 1.22 $34,752 21 Motor Vehicle Products and Services Local 890 1.21 $52,082 172 Commercial Services Local 832 0.54 $51,554 2
Business Services Traded 561 0.35 $63,779 15
Utilities Local 433 2.20 $136,021 35
Logistical Services Local 399 0.83 $45,967 65
Household Goods and Services Local 395 1.21 $41,394 33
Distribution and Electronic Commerce Traded 308 0.32 $106,392 90 Financial Services Local 280 0.58 $98,003 6
Construction Products and Services Traded 220 1.28 $105,578 35 Education and Knowledge Creation Traded 204 0.25 $71,209 -20 Entertainment and Media Local 197 0.83 $28,621 -36
Hospitality and Tourism Traded 174 0.29 $43,531 2
Marketing, Design, and Publishing Traded 105 0.36 $70,157 -8 Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).
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10 TABLE B. JOB GROWTH/RETRACTION PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO NATIONAL TRENDS FOR ANTIOCH’S LARGEST INDUSTRY CLUSTERS (LIST INCLUDES ALL CLUSTERS WITH MORE THAN 100 JOBS IN 2019), CITY OF ANTIOCH AND EAST BAY Cluster Traded / Local
2015-19 Growth Performance based on Shift
Share Analysis
Antioch East Bay
Health Services Local Better Worse
Hospitality Establishments Local Better Better
Real Estate, Construction, and Development Local Better Better Education and Training Local Worse Better
Retailing of Clothing and General Merchandise Local Worse Better Community and Civic Organizations Local Better Better
Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local Worse Better
Food and Beverage Processing and Distribution Local Worse Worse Motor Vehicle Products and Services Local Better Better Commercial Services Local Worse Better
Business Services Traded Worse Worse
Utilities Local Better Worse
Logistical Services Local Better Better
Household Goods and Services Local Better Better
Distribution and Electronic Commerce Traded Better Worse Financial Services Local Worse Worse
Construction Products and Services Traded Better Better Education and Knowledge Creation Traded Worse Better
Entertainment and Media Local Worse Better
Hospitality and Tourism Traded Worse Better
Marketing, Design, and Publishing Traded Worse Better
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG.
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11 Table C summarizes key facts about important existing clusters in Antioch. Clusters were included in the table if they are in the top 10 for at least one of the following three variables:
1. 2019 Location Quotient (LQ)
2. Number of jobs in 2019
3. Job growth between 2014 and 2019
TABLE C. TOP 10 CLUSTERS IN ANTIOCH FOR KEY VARIABLES: LQ, JOBS, AND JOB GROWTH Cluster 2019 LQ 2019 Jobs 2014-19
Jobs Added
Local Retailing of Clothing and General Merch. 2.2 1,674 -55 Local Utilities 2.2 433 35
Environmental Services 1.9 40 25
Local Education and Training 1.7 2,420 -80
Local Community and Civic Organizations 1.7 1,532 267
Local Health Services 1.6 4,875 746
Water Transportation 1.5 81 41
Local Real Estate, Construction, and Development 1.4 2,674 608 Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) 1.4 894 5
Local Hospitality Establishments 1.3 2,849 407
Local Food and Beverage Processing and Distrib. 1.3 220 35 Local Motor Vehicle Products and Services 1.2 891 21
Local Commercial Services 1.2 890 172
Distribution and Electronic Commerce 0.8 399 65
Local Logistical Services 0.5 832 2
Construction Products and Services 0.3 308 90
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping Project; Chmura Economics; TNDG. = Top 10 cluster for specified variable
Table D on the following page provides a preliminary list of candidate clusters for the City of Antioch’s industry targeting program (i.e., business retention, expansion and attraction). The preliminary candidate clusters are based on two strategic approaches to industry targeting:
1. Build on Antioch’s existing core strengths. In some cases (e.g., health services), the core clusters represent strong continuing growth opportunities that could be the focus of business expansion/attraction efforts. In other cases (e.g., the retail industry), the existing core clusters are currently recognized nationally as non-growth or declining industries (in these cases, the City’s industry targeting efforts would appropriately focus on retention/repositioning).
2. Tap into dominant East Bay clusters that are not currently well represented in Antioch. This strategic approach leverages Antioch’s competitive strengths to capture increasing shares of projected East Bay employment growth. This component of the City’s business attraction/marketing program would focus on the Antioch’s unique “selling points” relative to the larger Bay Area economy (including the City’s B199
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12 waterfront location, a resident workforce that includes large numbers of commuters potentially eager to work closer to home, and the availability of developable land suitable to land-intensive industries).
In developing the preliminary list of candidates for the “tap into dominant East Bay clusters” strategy, the consultant has focused on clusters meeting the following criteria:
a. Traded clusters (local clusters are addressed in the other strategic approach); b. Clusters that experienced a net gain in jobs between 2014 and 2019; c. Clusters primarily oriented towards private business investment (in contrast to clusters that are substantially composed of public sector/nonprofit employment).4 TABLE D. PRELIMINARY LIST OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS FOR ANTIOCH’S TARGET INDUSTRY PROGRAM Strategic Approach Local-serving Clusters “Traded” Clusters Build on (or facilitate
repositioning of) Antioch’s
existing core strengths
• Health services
• Retail/personal services
• Hospitality
• Local real estate and construction
services
• Food and beverage
processing/distribution
• Local utilities
• Construction products
(manufacturing)
• Water transportation
• Environmental services (waste
management)
• Distribution/electronic commerce
Tap into dominant East Bay
industry clusters that are not
currently well represented in
the city
• IT and analytical instruments
• Medical devices mfg.
• Automotive mfg.
• Biopharmaceuticals
• Education and knowledge
creation
• Business services
Source: TNDG
Table E summarizes key characteristics for the candidate clusters identified in TableD. The characteristics include annual average wages, projected 10-year job growth (for the larger East Bay and Bay Area regions), and additional qualitative criteria.
4 Based on this criterion, the preliminary list excludes the “Local Community and Civic Organizations” clusters. Whereas civic organizations are clearly critical to a healthy local economy, they are not typically part of an industry attraction effort. As appropriate, the need to leverage or expand the roles of these organizations in Antioch will be addressed in other components of the overall Economic Development Strategic Plan.
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13 TABLE E. CHARACTERISTICS OF CANDIDATE CLUSTERS
Candidate Cluster
Local or
Traded
Cluster?
Average (1)
Annual
Compensation
Projected 10-Year
Job Growth
(net number of
new jobs)
Does this cluster leverage Antioch’s
core competitive advantages?
East Bay Bay Area Waterfront
Workforce/
Commute
Industrial
Capacity
Antioch’s existing clusters:
Health services Local (2) $85,976 24,000 70,000 X
Retail/personal services Local $29,413 Job
losses
Job
losses
Hospitality Local $25,217 19,000 61,000
Real estate and
construction
Local $77,090 12,000 44,000 X
Food and beverage
processing/distribution Local $42,813 300 1,200 X X
Utilities Local $119,879 Job
losses
Job
losses
X X
Construction products
mfg.
Traded $101,831 1,000 3,000 X X
Water transportation Traded $158,812 600 800 X X
Environmental services Traded $78,566 120 200 X X
Distribution/electronic
commerce Traded $83,203 2,700 11,000 X X X
East Bay clusters:
IT and analytical
instruments
Traded $147,612 2,400 16,000 X X
Medical devices mfg. Traded $130,802 1,200 No net
growth
X X
Automotive mfg. Traded $109,487 8,000 9,000 X X
Biopharmaceuticals Traded $134,556 <100 2,000 X X
Education and
knowledge creation
Traded
$93,133 7,000 28,000
X
Business services Traded $126,108 15,000 112,000 X
(1) Average compensation based on averages for East Bay subregion. (2) Although the Health Services cluster is typically considered a local cluster, Antioch’s facilities serve the larger region to some extent.
Source: TNDG
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14 Stakeholder Input and Draft Citywide Strategies
Summit Meeting 1, March 4
Stakeholder attendees at this meeting were asked to provide input on the following three topics:
• City’s Assets and Opportunities for Economic Development • Potential Threats to Economic Progress
• City Roles in Improving Economic Vitality: business friendliness, preferred industry targets, etc.
To record this input, the participating stakeholders were divided into three groups to brainstorm and discuss the three topics. Summaries of the discussions by topic are provided under the relevant headings below.
Antioch’s Assets and Opportunities for Economic Development • Underutilized retail space.
• Some underutilized space in good locations, such as the vacant AMC theater at the Deer Valley Shopping Center on Lone Tree Way.
• Small businesses can go into some surplus retail space, which can be more affordable. • In Antioch, an unusually high percentage of businesses own their own buildings (which can give them a vested interest in continuing operation in the community). • Power plant property is for sale, probably slated for redevelopment (can be positioned as opportunity site for development).
• Antioch has a highly competent City staff.
• Firms in Antioch can recruit workers readily (based on proximity to places of residence), which is another reason to create job opportunities through development and other means. • Vacant commercial properties, especially the large-area spaces, represent opportunities, which then become missed opportunities until they are converted to productive uses. The fact that some of these spaces may ultimately be less expensive for tenants may not be sufficient to secure a deal. • Antioch has some advantage in its affordable housing stock. • The Bay Area’s workforce is here (many Antioch residents commute to tech and other skilled jobs in major Bay Area employment centers).
• Younger population (trainable workers), potentially attractive to employers. • Room (land) for expansion.
• Recently designated Federal Opportunity Zones can potentially enhance Antioch’s attractiveness to developers/investors.
• Antioch’s location on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta provides significant potentials both for industrial and recreational activities:
o Deep water port
o Waterfront area has the potential to be an active commercial/industrial hub B202
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15 o Antioch Rivertown and marina can support expanded recreational/visitor-oriented uses (among other potential opportunities, the idea of implementing ferry service between Antioch and Pittsburg is currently being discussed).
• Other major recreational amenities can set Antioch apart:
o Open space areas / hiking trails
o Sports center.
• Airport (Byron Airport in unincorporated County area). • Los Medanos College (community college with campuses in Pittsburg and Brentwood). • Good CTE (career and technical educations) programs in Antioch schools. • ETP contract (new program of Opportunity Junction).
• BART station (with nearby land available for development). • Major logistics center is being developed in Oakley, immediately adjacent to Antioch (the “Contra Costa Logistics Center” will ultimately total 2 million square feet of industrial buildings and support as many as 2,800 permanent jobs).
• Famous/important residents: Murgic family; KCBS newscaster. • Strong quality of life (QOL) attributes: waterfront, parks (open space, trails, etc.). • Strong rail-based transportation infrastructure: heavy rail, BART. • Availability of unincorporated land in City’s sphere of influence; potential for future development. • Opportunity by virtue of lack of existing executive-level (upscale) housing in City (necessary for high- wage workers to be attracted to the City); although the lack of this type of housing is currently a disadvantage, it represents a potential market opportunity for Antioch in the future. • Opportunity by virtue of lack of senior housing; big future market opportunity given demographic trends.
• Potential for physical redevelopment of Somersville Towne Center (has limited future viability as a traditional regional mall).
• (Pittsburg is a good model for downtown revitalization, although much of that development was made possible via redevelopment tools that are no longer available).
Threats to Antioch’s Economic Development Progress
• Shortage of available, user-ready office and industrial space. • Neighborhood residents can object to re-purposing/redevelopment uses that stray too far from prior retail uses.
• Some obsolescent industrial: warehouses without sufficient clear heights. • Fully functioning large-scale retail is limited.
• Young people find limited opportunities in Antioch, and so go elsewhere. Educational institutions, including technical schools and programs with an entrepreneurial focus, could help stem this. They also need to be able to find places to live that are affordable and appealing to them.
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16 • Low-paying jobs, in hospitality etc., are relatively plentiful in Antioch, are also those most vulnerable to a recession.
• Local school district is the lowest-performing in the County. However, scores are not the whole story, and some schools have notable programs.
• Private schools are part of the education-quality issue; but there is infighting among public and private schools.
• Philanthropic support is lacking in Antioch, partly because of the limited number of big businesses with ties to the City.
• Absentee property owners are not motivated to lease vacant buildings (City should consider implementing a vacancy tax).
• Crime (both a perception and a reality) affects the City’s resource needs and the overall community image; one issue is the inability to prosecute shoplifters due to the polices of the County DA’s Office. • Homelessness is a pervasive issue in Antioch (this issue has significant implications both for the City’s resource needs and the community’s image).
• Unsupervised children getting into trouble (they need more after school activities) • No Bachelor’s Degrees are available in Antioch.
• Lack of major employers – nothing has replaced lost waterfront jobs (Antioch should attract firms to take advantage of “reverse commute” opportunities, e.g., firms in Marin County). • “Through commuters” impact City roads and services but do not contribute to tax base. • Lower wage levels for jobs based in Antioch (makes it hard to attract workers, or at least offsets potential advantages associated with the relatively affordable housing). • Negative image issues, including:
o Crime
o Homelessness
o Public safety
o Perceived lack of transparency of City government
o Old/new Antioch divide
o Racial intolerance
o Loss of historic jobs
o Zip code distinctions/disparities
o Placemaking challenges (e.g., limited/inconsistent evening hours of downtown businesses are a potential impediment to positioning the downtown as a destination). • “Disconnected” geographic sub-region in City in terms of demographic strength and economic development levels:
o Unequal development levels throughout City
o Difficult to create “sense of community” given diversity of conditions geographically in the City.
• Significant homeless and transient population in the City:
o Real problem in terms of elevated crime rates
o Image problem in attracting new businesses.
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17 • Relatively low levels of education relative to other Bay Area cities:
o Need more college graduates
o Key to a qualified workforce.
• Blighted areas/buildings create a disincentive for new investment in the City.
Potential City Roles in Advancing Antioch’s Economic Potentials • Apparent nearby models that might appear to work for Antioch need careful scrutiny: Walnut Creek downtown had some success based on medical functions bringing traffic, but is now struggling; so, City perhaps forced concept that was overly limiting.
• Antioch could be more creative, even bold, in addressing retail opportunities and challenges in particular areas. The numerous issues associated with some of these areas tend to require an active City involvement, if not total control, in order to capture underlying value. • Brokers have trouble attracting prospects to some of these underutilized properties. Troubled areas could benefit by an overlay master-use permit type of mechanism in order to expedite development.
This was done at Delta.
• Overlays are one way that the City could trade discretionary approvals for giving greater certainty to the development community. City councils tend to favor discretionary approvals, but developers do not like this. The simpler, more explicit the rules for developers, the better. • Pittsburg has been able to make some progress in education and support systems for at-risk youth.
Antioch needs these kinds of programs.
• Development fees and related processes should be structured so that people can easily get answers to their development questions. The timing of approvals, etc. can be more important than the dollar amounts of the fees. Jurisdictions need to be sensitive to the fact that developers have limited windows of time in which to pull all aspects of a deal together. Pre-application meetings particularly should be implemented quickly.
• Cities can offer the option of having developers retain outside third parties to expedite approvals, at developers’ expense. These costs can be dollars well spent. • The City can improve the coordination among development-approving entities. • The City can experiment with revising the rules for target areas (i.e., making the process quicker and/or less expensive in these locations), which can also help convince tenants of the attractiveness of a location.
• Educational uses can be acceptable alternatives (to neighborhood residents) when converting underperforming retail.
• Address crime (through a very transparent process that builds community buy-in). • Support changes being made at the County DA’s Office (allowing for fuller prosecution of shoplifting and other chronic crimes).
• Enhance opportunities for Antioch residents to participate in community life and civic decisions (having a large proportion of residents with long commutes can make it difficult to engage residents through traditional meetings, etc.).
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18 • Apply Measure W revenues to community safety and economic development priorities (implement a community-based, consortium approach to deciding how these funds are allocated). • Review City fee structures to ensure business friendliness (e.g., shopping center has to pay $500 to host a private special event even if it has no measurable impact on City services). • Partner with non-profit sector for community and economic development program delivery. • Reduce elevated levels of crime and homelessness; necessary for attracting new investment in the community.
• Identify key opportunity sites that are suitable for new development or redevelopment (e.g., development of new business park).
• Use City’s powers or resources to enforce code violations (e.g., absentee landlords who let commercial/industrial buildings fall into disrepair).
• Evaluate potential City incentives or other grants for physical improvements to existing buildings (e.g., façade improvement grants).
• Improve levels of overall business friendliness (e.g., make sure zoning and General Plan goals are aligned); others indicated that the City has made great strides in recent years in improving business friendliness.
• Implement “digital census” for business license system:
o Would allow City to get a more complete understanding of types of businesses in the City o Would enhance City’s ability to identify needs of existing businesses.
Industry Types that Could Potentially be Targeted for Attraction • Ideal employer prospects are those with 25 or fewer employees, especially if local workers are available, rather than larger firms. However, multipliers such firms generate are always a consideration.
• Jobs that pay well will also be an important component of retaining youth. • Industries to bring to the City can include specialized trade schools and extension campuses of existing institutions.
• The business centers that exist around Antioch in other communities can be inventoried to see what they have been able to attract, and these might be viable targets (as industry types and also specific firms that might be enticed to Antioch).
• Target industries (attraction):
o Testing labs
o Trade school
o IT/high tech
o 3D printing.
• Target industries (retention/expansion):
o Health care – connect to testing labs
o Social services
o Nursing/CNA jobs
o Senior care.
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19 Draft strategies – including initial observations on potential pandemic influences on strategies The diagram below is a simplified summary of Antioch’s current strategic situation:
Big-Picture Strategy Themes: Antioch shares some opportunities and challenges typical of suburban cities in dynamic urban regions:
• Some of Antioch’s historic economic functions are less relevant today. • Housing needed for workforce now commuting towards the urban core. o Always in catch-up mode to maintain jobs/housing balance. o Retail development follows new residential development. • With its location, Antioch is competitive for a range of economic activity, but has neighbors also competing.
• Historic areas are unique assets but also require ongoing investment. ”Global” Implications of Pandemic Potentially Affecting Antioch:
• Outlying areas of metro regions could be more attractive for both living and working. • Growing, evolving communities will tend to be more adaptable to possible re-designs of urban formats such as shopping centers, places of public assembly, etc. • Access to open space in general will likely be more valued by residents.
Program Areas, Citywide. The strategic plan citywide program areas outlined below represent a comprehensive approach to supporting Antioch’s competitiveness. A total of 14 programs are grouped into three overarching categories:
Assets establish Strong Potentials:
Location in region
Workforce
Land/growth capacity
Waterfront access
To address Chronic Problems:
Blight
Crime
Homelessness
Education system
By applying Strategic Actions and,
immediately, Systematic Communication to
clarify and correct misconceptions
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20 Category 1: City administrative actions: Actions the City can undertake largely on its own without necessarily having to commit substantial additional resources. These include:
1. Development streamlining
2. Diversify economy (industry/cluster targeting program)
3. Existing business retention/expansion
4. Marketing / business attraction
Category 2: Substantial investment or creative use of limited resources: These are items that may require capital investments or other major resource commitments. Alternatively, to the extent funds are restricted, programmatic focus might shift toward low-cost design solutions. These include:
5. Crime reduction efforts
6. Blight reduction efforts
7. Programs to reduce homelessness
8. Other Quality of Life initiatives - including coordinating how City entities such as the Recreation Department, Marina and others maintain a Quality of Life programmatic and marketing orientation
9. Placemaking (e.g., downtown)
10. Targeted infrastructure investment
Category 3: External partner focus: The City may have primarily a convening or other facilitating/coordinating role, encouraging partners to, potentially, align pursuit of their own interests with those of the City. These include:
11. K-12 Education
12. Workforce development
13. Entrepreneurial development
14. Leverage philanthropic resources
The programs in the three categories, taken together, constitute a cross-section of: a) levels of effort, b) internal and external entities, and c) subject matter.
Summit Meeting 2, April 29
Meeting 2 participants were polled, during a Zoom meeting, to elicit their reactions to: 1) Potential target clusters, which had been shared with them through TNDG’s Industry Cluster Analysis, summarized in the Cluster Report Summary section of this document, above; and 2) priorities for Antioch’s Economic Development Program. The meeting session combined a remote polling system, Poll Everywhere, which participants accessed through their smartphones. Participants provided input on two major topics. First, the group was polled on 16 prospective target clusters within the three categories of:
1) Antioch “local” clusters,
2) Antioch “traded” clusters, and
3) East Bay traded clusters
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21 Second, the group addressed 13 economic development functions, organized within the three headings of: 1) Core economic development functions, 2) Foundational elements – physical environment/land use, and 3) Foundational elements – social.
For each topic, participants selected among four choices:
1) Highest/immediate priority
2) Longer-term option
3) “Okay if it comes, but don’t invest City resources in pursuing it” 4) “Don’t want it at all”
Results of these exercises are shown below in the following series of four “stacked bar” charts, which show the cumulative number of “votes” applied to each topic by choice option:
ANTIOCH LOCAL CLUSTER PREFERENCES
0 5 10 15 20 25
Food & Beverage Processing/Distribution
Health Services
Hospitality
Local Real Estate/Construction Services
Local Utilities
Retail/Personal Services
Highest/ immediate priority Longer-term option
Okay if it comes, but don't pursue Don't want it at all B209
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22 ANTIOCH TRADED CLUSTER PREFERENCES
EAST BAY TRADED CLUSTER PREFERENCES
0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction Products (manufacturing)
Distribution/Electronic Commerce
Environmental Services (Waste
Management)
Water Transportation
Highest/ immediate priority Longer-term option
Okay if it comes, but don't pursue Don't want it at all 0 5 10 15 20 25
Automotive Manufacturing
Biopharmaceuticals
Business Services
Education and Knowledge Creation
Information Technology (IT) and Analytical
Instruments
Medical Devices Manufacturing
Highest/ immediate priority Longer-term option
Okay if it comes, but don't pursue Don't want it at all B210
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23 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM PREFERENCES
Summit Meeting 3, June 3.
Key points raised by participants in response to a review of draft strategies include the following:
• K-12 education is important enough to be a strategy topic on its own; or perhaps the topic is K-16.
Education is part of residents being able to negotiate a “whole lifecycle” within Antioch, beyond traditional education/training paths.
• [Participants] will expand on the list of potential partners for economic development. • Business retention is a key component of successful economic development in Antioch, and there is unrealized potential in making existing local businesses more successful. This is in line with the concept of “economic gardening.” The City could be a clearinghouse of resources for small business. • Marketing a community like Antioch embodies special challenges and opportunities: all stakeholders need to have a clear sense of the message; one focus should be “what makes Antioch different from other cities in the region.”
• Strategies could include creative ways of encouraging development, including for example making it more expensive for people to sit on developable properties. Regional brokers and local landowners need to be involved in generating strategies for development and redevelopment. Strategies can coordinate with the City’s current initiative to undertake a study of vacant and underutilized properties throughout the City.
• Homelessness is a serious problem most likely made worse by the pandemic, and must involve both decisive action by the City and regional partners in addressing. 0 5 10 15 20 25
Blight reduction efforts
Crime reduction efforts
Development Streamlining
Entrepreneurial development
Existing business retention/expansion
Incentivize office/industrial development
Leverage philanthropic resources
Marketing / business attraction
Other Quality of Life Initiatives
Placemaking (e.g., downtown)
Programs to reduce homelessness
Targeted infrastructure investment
Workforce Development
Highest priority for City action (invest new resources) Lower priority for City action (existing resources) Pursue through partnerships (limited City role) Don't include this at all B211
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24 Discussion with Chief Brooks, Antioch Police Department Because of the particular sensitivity of urban policing issues today, TNDG coordinated with Economic Development staff to conduct a key informant interview with Chief Brooks, to explore ways by which the strategic plan could relate most meaningfully to law enforcement in the community. The conversation focused on integrating relevant policing issues into other strategies. One of the key points was that the strategic emphasis should be on both recognizing the severity of certain issues and methods of enhancing communication with the public. It was noted that the City of Stockton may have relevant models for this, which TNDG has investigated and incorporated into draft strategies.
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25 Development Focus Areas and Selection of Two Areas for Detailed Strategy Development
Summary of Focus Area evaluations
The Natelson Dale Group identified and evaluated the following 11 focus areas within Antioch with the intent, as per this project's scope of work, of prioritizing two sites that would each maximize the potential for near- term economic and fiscal impact from development or revitalization/repurposing. Strategies for the two sites would be coordinated within the overall economic development strategic planning process. The focus areas are listed below and shown on the following map.
A - A Street Interchange
B - Marina/Downtown
C - Wilbur Avenue / Eastern Waterfront
D - Hillcrest Station Area
E - Somersville
F - Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch
G - Kaiser / Sand Creek
H - Costco Area
I - AMC Theater Area
J - Sutter Delta Hospital Area
K - East 18th Street Specific Plan area
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26 EVALUATED DEVELOPMENT FOCUS AREAS
Source: TNDG
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27 These focus areas had been previously identified, in various forms and in some cases revised, in planning and other study documents for the City over a period of many years. TNDG worked closely with Economic Development staff to refine area boundaries, assemble relevant data from various sources and prepare methods for evaluating these properties.
In the evaluation process, each line item shown in the matrix below was qualitatively assessed by the consultants for each of the 11 areas, data permitting. These assessments were subsequently given numerical scores based on a scale unique to each line item, and the scores were then summed for all areas within a single matrix, as shown below:
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28 AREA SCORES
In the next phase of the evaluation process, the 11 areas were divided into two categories:
Criterion / Area Label A B C D E F G H I J K
Physical conditions:
Nature and scale of development
opportunity/capacity based on physical
characteristics 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
Broadband service speeds 3 3 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 2
Market demand:
Local market demand conditions, trends 2 3 0 2 0 3 3 2 1 1 1 Global (industry) conditions affecting
potentials 2 2 0 2 0 0 3 0 -1 2 1
Challenges/opportunities assumed to
affect market competitiveness:
Level of investment needed to activate
capacity, dollars -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0
Level of investment needed to activate
capacity, administrative/ partnering -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 Federal Opportunity Zone 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 3
Other special designations 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2
Local (neighborhood level) conditions
affecting potentials 1 1 1 3 -2 3 3 2 1 0 -1
Influence of adjacent-area development /
land uses -1 0 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 -1
Existing conditions affecting market
competitiveness:
Private investment underway or planned 2 1 2 0 3 0 1 3 0 0 2 Public investment underway or planned 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Area is focus of public sector studies or
strategic focus 0 3 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 3
Current employment mix represents
diversification in desired clusters (traded,
etc.) 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2
Performance measures - objectives served:
Mitigates present or impending blight 1 3 3 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 Encourages employment in locally
prominent clusters 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 1
Encourages employment in regionally
prominent clusters 0 2 0 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 1
Enhances competitive position with respect
to neighboring communities 0 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 1
TOTAL SCORE BY AREA 14 23 17 17 14 20 25 22 7 10 15
Numeric Score (-3 to +3) from Area Scoring Sheets
Area Evaluation Matrix
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29 • Areas A, B, C, E, H, I, J, and K were assigned to the category "Investment in blight reduction," which referred to the fact that these areas included properties that would require redevelopment/revitalization efforts
• Areas D, F, and G were assigned to the category "greenfield development" Additional "summary" scores were applied to the focus areas within these two categories, based on the following:
• Capacity/cost to develop: Capacity rating is based on size of area plus vacant land as a proportion of total. Costs assumed to be generally higher for redevelopment, so the likely scale of projects is a factor.
• Potential economic and fiscal impact: Size of area and likely scale of individual projects are factors. • Potential to encourage other development: Potential impact of the project based on visibility, likely scale of typical project.
• Complexity and cost to plan and initiate: Probable range of options, availability of interested parties, etc.
The results of this process are summarized in the two tables below:
BLIGHT REDUCTION GROUP
A - A Street Interchange G - Kaiser / Sand Creek
B - Marina/Downtown H - Costco Area
C - Wilbur Avenue / Eastern Waterfront I - AMC Theater Area D - Hillcrest Station Area J - Sutter Delta Hospital Area E - Somersville K - East 18th Street Specific Plan area F - Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch
Criterion / Area Label A B C E H I J K
Rank of Area Scores by focus category
(1 = highest) 4 1 3 4 2 6 5 4
Capacity / cost to develop Moderate/
mod
Mod/
high
Mod/
high
Mod/
high
Mod/
mod
Mod/
mod
Mod/
mod
Low/
mod
Criterion score, capacity 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Criterion score, cost 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
Potential economic and fiscal impact Moderate Mod High Mod-Hi Mod Mod Mod Mod Criterion score 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 3
Potential to encourage other development Moderate High High High Mod Mod Mod Mod Criterion score 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Complexity and cost to plan and initiate Low Mod High Low Low Low Mod Mod Criterion score 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 2
Sum of criterion scores (lowest = best) 10 11 10 9 10 10 11 12 Area notes key Note 2 Note 2
Focus 1: Investment in blight reduction
B217
Economic Developent Baseline and Strategic Plans
Status Briefing for City Council
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
30 GREENFIELD GROUP
Area notes:
1. Development costs for this area associated with the need to access developable land via a bridge could potentially be offset by grant funds, which could make this location the most desirable of greenfield options.
2. Projects in this area are likely to be relatively sizable in scale, given the existing development conditions, parcel sizes, etc.
Selection of 2 areas for additional strategy development Following additional discussions with Economic Development staff, one area was selected from each of the two categories of “blight reduction” and “greenfield development” for additional strategic focus, based primarily on the summary scores:
1. Somersville Mall (Area E), for blight reduction, and
2. Slatten Ranch (Area F), for greenfield development
Criterion / Area Label D F G
Rank of Area Scores by focus category
(1 = highest) 3 2 1
Capacity / cost to develop High/
high
High/
low
Mod/
low
Criterion score, capacity 1 1 2
Criterion score, cost 3 1 1
Potential economic and fiscal impact High High Mod
Criterion score 1 1 3
Potential to encourage other development High High Low
Criterion score 1 1 3
Complexity and cost to plan and initiate High Low Low
Criterion score 3 1 1
Sum of criterion scores (lowest = best) 9 5 10
Area notes key Note 1
Focus 2: greenfield
development
B218
Economic Developent Baseline and Strategic Plans
Status Briefing for City Council
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
31 Key characteristics of the two sites are shown below:
TWO SELECTED PROPERTIES
Characteristic Somersville Mall (Area E) Slatten Ranch (Area F) Estimated Existing Jobs 1,788 1,417
Total Acres 128.0 315.5
Jobs/Acre 14.0 4.5
Relative Size (jobs) Mid-sized Mid-sized
Relative Size (acres) Mid-sized Large
Relative Job Density (jobs/acre) Medium Medium
Building Density Medium Low
Highest employment (top 3) in:
Health Care Retail
Retail Accommodation/Food Svc
Accommodation/Food Svc Other Services
Selecting an area from each of the two categories was in keeping with one of the principles of the economic development strategic planning process, namely to expedite immediate development options within the community (greenfield development) and also tackle longer-term challenges associated with area revitalization, including a focus on the concept that successful revitalization could benefit the community generally.
B219
Document 2.5
Antioch Stategy and Target Cluster Review with Pandemic (memorandum dated 03-16-2021)
B220
P.O.
Box 489, Yorba Linda, CA 92885
www.natelsondale.com
Phone: (714) 692-9596. Fax: (714) 692-9597
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Kwame Reed
Economic Development Director
City of Antioch
DATE: March 16, 2021
FROM: Roger Dale, Managing Principal
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG)
FILE: #4115
SUBJECT: Antioch Strategy and Target Cluster Review with Pandemic This m
emo summarizes the results of a review of two aspects of the Antioch Economic Development Baseline and Strategic Plans in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, namely:
1. Recommended economic development strategies, and
2. Candidate target clusters
The Matrix of strategic considerations and potential effects heightened by pandemic below addresses potential positive or negative implications of pandemic effects on each strategy category, along with key strategy topics that would likely be instrumental in focusing strategic efforts. The table includes a column showing key interrelationships among strategy categories.
The Recap of summary characteristics – candidate clusters in Antioch Industry Cluster Study (April 2020) summarizes key aspects of candidate clusters from TNDG’s previous study referenced, and is included here for context. These candidate clusters are then reviewed in the table, Reinterpretation of target cluster considerations, reflecting potential pandemic implications. This table summarizes: 1) how the pandemic could affect global demand for the industries in each cluster, 2) how jobs within the cluster that are based in Antioch could be affected, and 3) how the pandemic might affect the relationship between the cluster and Antioch’s position in the East Bay. The final table provides generalized Conclusions regarding overall viability of target clusters.
B221
2 Matrix of strategic considerations and potential effects heightened by pandemic – Key Items to Drive Strategy Focus Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
A. Public revenue effects with changing
(mainly projected) land-use patterns
Decreases in some types of employer facilities and
increases in others will affect property taxes
Residential development may be encouraged,
increasing property and sales taxes
Antioch has been fortunate to have an
advantageous retail business mix that has
largely weathered the pandemic
D
B. Public cost effects
Services obligations Changing land use mix will affect
The City will want to preempt any potential
to become fiscally disadvantaged in this
pivotal period
Public investment needs Reprioritizing
Identify opportunities to shift as certain
areas/uses become more, or less,
important. For example, fiber optics needs
could increase to support remote workers,
and this is a challenging infrastructure
element for the City to plan for and
otherwise expedite because of multiple
service providers, and other issues. Relates
to Priority Development Focus Area (DFA)
#2 (1)
A
C. Public planning/development effects
General and specific plans, and zoning
Documents may need to be changed to maximize
competitive development conditions within
changed development environment. Changing
development market conditions may increase the
need for repurposing existing buildings. For
example, offices and hotels might need to convert
to housing, retail distribution functions,
event/meeting spaces, kitchens for deliveries only,
etc.
The timing of the General Plan process now
underway is particularly fortuitous.
Placemaking and other quality-of-life
considerations take on additional
importance. Relates to DFA 1, 2
D, G, H
B222
3 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Public improvements May need re-prioritizing
Look for ways to maximize development
potential of certain areas, with key
investments (for example in fiber optics).
Relates to DFA 2
A, B, G,
H
D. Private development opportunities
Demand for general office space will probably
decline; shared office space needs may expand.
Firms with offices in major cities may want satellite
offices in suburbs where employees are
concentrated.
Demand for housing may increase, along with the
need for greater diversification of housing types,
costs, etc. Options for working remotely will be
aided by ongoing continuing advancement and
expansion of communication tools for doing so.
Live/work projects may experience greater demand
The City’s transition to form-based zoning
will expedite development, and
coordinating the production of blanket EIRs
would also help. The City can encourage
developments that creatively respond to
housing’s evolution as a place of work.
Relates to DFA 1, 2
F, G, H
E. Public policy adaptations The City can take special efforts to monitor changing conditions in workplaces, etc. D
Marketing: For economic development
as well as generally Existing efforts will need revisiting Adjust marketing messages to changing local trends as they emerge
C, D, F,
G, H
Development Approval processing
Competition among cities for what might be, at
least for a time, limited development activity could
make this issue more relevant and increase the
importance of the City implementing highly visible
development streamlining initiatives, and other
steps to maximize approval transparency
Added flexibility will help City to adapt to
changing land use demands, etc.
Municipalities also have an added incentive
to work with the business community to
help businesses recover from the
coronavirus shutdowns
D
B223
4 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Economic development City is already desirable residential base; employers may be persuaded to co-locate with employees
What defines best practices could evolve
rapidly and continuously for a time.
Incentives might focus more on workforce
support; for example, along with retraining
(due to traditional influences such as
industry change, etc.), some workers may
need supplemental guidance adapting to
work-from-home environments
D, F, G,
H, I
Existing business
retention/expansion
Local businesses that have been sidelined by the
pandemic are likely to need additional assistance in
restoring their operations, so many might be more
receptive to this sort of outreach than they would
otherwise be
This function (and the visibility of the City’s
messaging about it) is especially important
now
D, G, H,
I
Business attraction
The potential for increased competition among
cities to attract/retain business operations
increases the relevance of this strategy program
area. As the suburban region in general grows, the
challenge of distinguishing advantages within
individual cities increases
Firm’s traditional ways of thinking about
the value of particular locations will almost
certainly have to change; for example, is
the “prestige” of a certain city’s business
address still relevant, when people
understand that most workers are not
actually there?
D, G, H
Workforce development
Employment disruptions brought about by the
pandemic should increase the demand for
alternative employment options, and retraining will
be necessary for at least some of those options to
be realized
Institutional partnering to encourage
creative responses to these conditions will
likely take on a higher priority. The City has
data indicating small-business repositioning
has occurred presumably in response to the
pandemic. The City could also take on the
role of functioning as a clearinghouse for
entrepreneurial support systems
Entrepreneurial development
Employment disruptions from the pandemic may
result in more people than usual attempting to
pursue entrepreneurship
Leverage philanthropic resources
Funds from philanthropic organizations will
probably be in high demand as one way of
attempting to mitigate pandemic-related problems
Potential funders can be out made aware of
the opportunities for providing support
within Antioch
A, B, E,
F, G, H,
I
B224
5 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
F. Perception of value/marketing
implications
Locational characteristics
On cross-commuting circuit, between
Bay Area and Central Valley
Continues to represent an advantage, even at
reduced levels of commuting
Documenting changes in commuting and
work-from-home habits will continue to
present a challenge, given its evolution in
response to the pandemic in the short-term
and possible long-term consequences; but
real estate firms such as Redfin can provide
current information on origins and
destinations of home searchers and
purchasers
D, E
Situated among competitive suburbs Neighboring communities’ growth still enhances attractiveness of the overall region
City can continue to assess opportunities at
a regional level, which might emerge as
region grows and Antioch becomes more
central to this growth. Relates to DFA 1, 2
D, E, I
Institutions of higher learning in
region
Part of attraction for resident workers; can be
leveraged to support entrepreneurs
Regional growth may create opportunities
for additional/enhanced institutions in
Antioch. Relates to DFA 1, 2
E, I
With less commuting (work from
home), travel congestion is reduced City’s accessibility is enhanced This could be a major plus, given that some
commuting will probably continue, even for
those primarily working from home
D
G. Community assets
Physical assets
Opportunity Zones
Pandemic has been a factor in extending the time
period for investors to make use of this incentive
program.
Relates to DFA 2 and also portions of the
waterfront area and the Hillcrest Station
area
Downtown The configuration and use of public areas could change significantly and on a long-term basis, and
public areas become more important in general, as
a result of the pandemic experience; expanded
The advent of such changes can be
monitored along with the potential need
for design and other updates to existing
and planned public spaces. Perceptions of
C, D, H,
I
Riverfront
B225
6 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Marina
demand for outdoor activities will be advantageous
for Antioch
the City’s quality of life will be important
deciding factors for potential business and
workforce relocatees
Broadband Home-based workers will absolutely require high- level broadband service
Broadband conditions in Antioch are
somewhat uneven at present. Relates to
DFA 2
C, D, E
Healthcare facilities
Healthcare facilities become even more important
with both the current pandemic and heightened
awareness of potential future threats
E, F
Access to open space Expanded demand for outdoor activities will be advantageous for Antioch D, F
Sports center Expanded demand for outdoor activities will be advantageous for Antioch D, F
Water supply capacity
Strength of the local water supply is likely to
become more important as regions and
communities place a higher priority on resiliency
and self-reliance
Desalinization plant, though not specifically
related to the pandemic, offers unique
competitive advantage that can potentially
mitigate “lost opportunities/advantages”
due to the pandemic
D, H
Developable land, greenfield and re-
developable
Developable land remains a competitive advantage
within the largely built out Bay Area; however, land
use patterns are likely to shift, and land uses such
as office space, which would have otherwise been
supported by Antioch’s central location within a
large labor pool, will likely need to be rethought as
strategic targets
As with most cities, Antioch will continue to
face pressure to change job-focused zones
to residential uses, so must be prepared to
maintain an appropriate stock of
employment land uses. Relates to DFA 1, 2
D, H
Economic/demographic assets
Resident workforce in diversified
industries, mostly out-commuting
A long-term shift in favor of remote work (which
now seems likely) will potentially undermine
Antioch’s “reverse commute” selling point and this
will influence the industries that Antioch is well
positioned to attract
D, E, F
B226
7 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Relative affordability of housing
Affordable housing remains a strategic advantage
within the high-priced Bay Area; however, a trend
towards remote work will effectively expand the
range of other communities that are affordable
options for Bay Area workers (i.e., if they can work
remotely, they may opt to leave the Bay Area
altogether)
One marketing challenge for Antioch (and
other suburban communities) is to position
the community as a desirable alternative to
both the large Bay Area cities and to
abandoning the Bay Area
D, E, F
H. Assets that could be enhanced or
expanded
Downtown grid circulation pattern
The pandemic experience could exert additional
influence on the evolution of transportation
systems, already subject to change due to emerging
technologies, to for example expand options for
local alternative modes given reduced commuting
flows and increased home-centered experiences
Experiences of other cities can be
monitored as one way of remaining current
on this topic. Relates to DFA 2
A, B, C,
D
Alternative mobility (slow streets, etc.)
Port
With potential connections to e-commerce and
logistics, and with a rail line present, the port could be a very strategic asset for Antioch; is Antioch’s
port suitable for these activities, or what would be
needed to make it so, including appropriate
jurisdictional control or oversight?
The port at Antioch is lacking recognition
and official designation within the Bay Area
port system. Potential for re-activating the
power generation facility near waterfront
could also be a very strategy
asset/competitive advantage for Antioch
A, B, C,
D
Water-based recreation facilities and
services
Expanded demand for outdoor activities will be
advantageous for Antioch
A, B, C,
D
Development focus areas
In general, the pandemic is likely to decrease
demand for retail and office space and increase
demand for industrial space. Since Antioch is
already anticipating the need to repurpose surplus
retail facilities, it can be in a position of being
proactive about accommodating expanded
industrial demand
From the perspective of the development
community, housing is likely to be a prime
candidate for repurposed commercial land.
Antioch will need to continually monitor
and balance housing demand with other
development opportunities (e.g., industrial)
in light of the long-standing jobs/housing
imbalance. Relates to DFA 1, 2
A, B, C,
D, F
B227
8 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Rail line May be important in relation to potential expanded port operations
Energy production facility
The pandemic has heightened the awareness of
resiliency in infrastructure, among other things,
which could play a role in expanding energy
production in Antioch
Alternatively, this facility may be most
productive by being repurposed
I. Implications of challenging conditions
Crime and crime perception
Economic and social stress brought about by the
pandemic could result in increased crime, at least in
the short term, so the issue is particularly relevant
at this time
This issue becomes more challenging to
address with the added fiscal constraints
brought on by the pandemic
A, D, F
Blight reduction efforts
Less-than-optimal economic conditions could
increase the potential for blighted areas to expand
or otherwise further downgrade
Strategic actions could be geographically
targeted, prioritized, and implemented with
this particular consideration at the
forefront. Relates to DFA 2
A, D, F
Programs to reduce homelessness
The pandemic will almost certainly add to the
problem of homelessness, at least in the short run,
both in terms of numbers of people affected and
also the severity of their social assistance needs
Short-term remedies might be more
important than long-term solutions, which
in reality require multijurisdictional
coordination, for the immediate future. The
San Diego Community Action Plan on
Homelessness could be a source of
guidance for long-term strategies, including
their “systems level” comprehensive
approach to addressing issues directly and
indirectly related to homelessness
A, D, F
K-12 systems
The pandemic has exposed our collective and
individual vulnerabilities, resulting in an increased
awareness of social equity. Strong public education
becomes increasingly critical to ensuring that all
members of the community are empowered to
thrive in a changing world
Places that demonstrate leadership in this
will gain a competitive advantage A, D, F
B228
9 Strategy category Positive/negative implications of Effects Special considerations Relates to:
Competitive neighboring communities
Overall, the impacts of the pandemic on Antioch’s
competitive position are a “mixed bag,” with some
factors affecting Antioch negatively and some
factors potentially having a positive impact. These
shifting competitive influences heighten the need
for Antioch to distinguish itself to better stand out
in what will likely be an increasingly competitive
development environment
Be aware of potential for bias favoring
“new” development, which could entice
consumers to locations outside the City
D, E, F,
G, H
1. Priority Development Focus Areas (DFAs): 1 = Slatten Ranch; 2 = Somersville Mall B229
10 Recap of summary characteristics – candidate clusters in Antioch Industry Cluster Study (April 2020) Candidate Cluster
Local or
Traded
Cluster?
Average (1)
Annual
Compensation
Projected 10-Year
Job Growth
(net new jobs)
Does this cluster leverage Antioch’s
core competitive advantages?
East Bay Bay
Area Waterfront
Workforce/
Commute
Industrial
Capacity
Antioch’s existing clusters:
Health services Local (2) $85,976 24,000 70,000 X
Retail/personal services Local $29,413 Job losses Job
losses
Hospitality – non-food;
sports/fitness venues Local
$25,217 19,000 61,000 Restaurants, other food
services Local
Real estate and
construction Local $77,090 12,000 44,000 X
Food and beverage
processing/distribution Local $42,813 300 1,200 X X
Utilities Local $119,879 Job losses Job
losses X X
Construction products
mfg. Traded $101,831 1,000 3,000 X X
Water transportation Traded $158,812 600 800 X X
Environmental services Traded $78,566 120 200 X X
Distribution/electronic
commerce Traded $83,203 2,700 11,000 X X X
East Bay clusters:
IT and analytical
instruments Traded $147,612 2,400 16,000 X X
Medical devices mfg. Traded $130,802 1,200 No net
growth X X
Automotive mfg. Traded $109,487 8,000 9,000 X X
Biopharmaceuticals Traded $134,556 <100 2,000 X X
Education and knowledge
creation Traded $93,133 7,000 28,000 X
Business services Traded $126,108 15,000 112,000 X
(1) Average compensation based on averages for East Bay subregion. (2) Although the Health Services cluster is typically considered a local cluster, Antioch’s facilities serve the larger region to some extent.
B230
11 Reinterpretation of target cluster considerations, reflecting potential pandemic implications Candidate Cluster
Pandemic implications
Global Demand Jobs Based in Antioch Antioch’s Position in Region Antioch’s existing
clusters:
Health services Aging population and anticipation of future pandemics increase demand
Local strength (which pandemic does
not diminish) Antioch’s centrality to the East Bay
increases over time (due to both
ongoing trends and likely
pandemic effect of dispersing
workforce away from historic
centers)
Retail/personal services
Retail downsizing through e-commerce (which
pandemic has accelerated); personal services
remain location-specific
Positive long-term; the more the
resident workforce works from home,
the more likely they are to purchase
goods and services locally as opposed to
their workplaces; this positive effect
may offset the ongoing trend towards
consolidation of retail demand/facilities
Hospitality – non-food;
sports/fitness venues
Aversion to crowding may continue past
pandemic; increasing recreational isolation
Follows trends generally; but work-
from-home could increase the appeal of
local outdoor recreation (i.e., pandemic
potentially has both positive and
negative impacts on Antioch’s
competitiveness)
Antioch has base of outdoor
recreational venues (which are
likely to be more attractive in the
future due to pandemic)
Restaurants, other food
services
Demand grows with population increase; but
venue types may change Boosted by work-from-home
Antioch’s centrality to the East Bay
increases over time (due to both
ongoing trends and likely
pandemic effect of dispersing
workforce away from historic
centers)
Real estate and
construction
Demand grows with population increase; but
commercial space demand may decrease Some offsetting, generally positive Food and beverage
processing/distribution
Demand grows with population increase;
pandemic likely to increase demand for locally
sourced food and beverage products
Positive for artisanal, specialty
Utilities
Demand grows with population increase, and
need for resilience will necessitate additional
investment
Most of Antioch’s existing employment
in this cluster is concentrated in the
Wired Telecommunications Carriers
Industry (which represents an
opportunity not only to create jobs but
also to expand Antioch’s
telecommunications infrastructure)
B231
12 Candidate Cluster
Pandemic implications
Global Demand Jobs Based in Antioch Antioch’s Position in Region Construction products
mfg.
Demand grows with population increase; but
commercial space demand may decrease and
be repurposed
Offsetting influences, positive on
balance
Water transportation
Bulk transport tends to be more efficient, and
technologies could evolve to increase this
(pandemic’s effect of increasing demand for
logistics businesses could be a basis for
leveraging Antioch’s unique water
transportation potentials)
Port asset could be activated Extensive waterfront, with variety of land uses
Environmental services
Demand grows with population increase; need
for more efficiency will require investment;
pandemic is likely to induce an across-the-board
focus on resilient “systems,” including waste
management, etc.
Global demand increases combined
with Antioch’s capacity for “heavy
industrial” activities (which other Bay
Area communities are less likely to
have) should make this a promising
cluster for Antioch
Anti
och’s centrality to the East
Bay; waterfront potential
Distribution/electronic
commerce
Demand grows with population increase;
pandemic has clearly accelerated demand for e-
commerce and related logistics activities
East Bay clusters:
IT and analytical
instruments
Demand grows with population increase;
evolving technologies add to demand; remote
work, social distancing, etc. increase demand
for software and hardware
Antioch residents may find expanded
home-based employment opportunities
in IT (although the firms would not
necessarily be located in Antioch). For
manufacturing-oriented IT jobs (less
suited for remote work), Antioch’s
resident workforce should remain an
attractive asset for prospective firms
Minimal existing strength in
Antioch. In terms of business
attraction targets, manufacturing
activities should remain viable for
Antioch (because they are less
susceptible to disruption by a shift
to remote work). For business
types experiencing a shift to
remote work, business attraction
to Antioch becomes more
challenging
Medical devices mfg.
Demand grows with population increase;
evolving technologies add to demand;
increasing focus on improved health care
systems (in response to pandemic) should
generally enhance demand
For manufacturing jobs (less suited for
remote work), Antioch’s resident
workforce should remain an attractive
asset for prospective firms
B232
13 Candidate Cluster
Pandemic implications
Global Demand Jobs Based in Antioch Antioch’s Position in Region Automotive mfg.
Pandemic could have effect of increasing
demand for personal automobiles, and electric
vehicle production in California could increase
in general; but autonomous vehicles will reduce
overall demand for personal autos
Offsetting influences per global
demand; for manufacturing jobs (less
suited for remote work), Antioch’s
resident workforce should remain an
attractive asset for prospective firms
Biopharmaceuticals
Demand grows with overall population and
aging population increase; evolving
technologies add to demand; increasing focus
on improved health care systems (in response
to pandemic) should generally enhance demand
For manufacturing jobs (less suited for
remote work), Antioch’s resident
workforce should remain an attractive
asset for prospective firms
Education and
knowledge creation
Demand grows with population increase;
evolving technologies add to demand for
retraining to update skills and to replace skills
made obsolete
Potentially offsetting effects in terms of
demand for new facilities/employment:
pandemic generally increases demand
for flexible education systems; but
services may increasingly be delivered
in a virtual format
Opportunities may emerge in
future, with East Bay regional
growth, but it is possible these will
be fulfilled virtually and thus not
create local demand for new
facilities/jobs
Business services Demand grows with population increase; evolving technologies add to demand
Services are a “mixed bag” in terms of
susceptibility of impacts from remove
work: some activities can be readily
fulfilled by remote workers, whereas
some require face-to-face interaction
Antioch’s centrality to the East Bay
increases over time; however, for
service types that might have
previously been attracted to
Antioch as a means of seeking less
expensive office facilities, the
attraction may be diminished by
the pandemic (since these firms
are likely to reduce their use of
office space overall)
B233
14 Conclusions regarding overall viability of target clusters Candidate Cluster Updated “Verdict” on Viability as a Target Cluster Antioch’s existing clusters:
Health services Remains viable (and global demand should be even stronger than before pandemic)
Retail/personal services Remains viable, but still should be regarded as a “consolidating” industry (requiring special attention to the needs of specific sub- clusters that are most likely to grow or decline in the future) Hospitality – non-food;
sports/fitness venues
Remains viable, especially given Antioch’s strength/capacity as it relates to outdoor recreational options
Restaurants, other food
services
Remains viable, as Antioch becomes more central to East Bay and more Antioch residents work locally (remotely or otherwise) Real estate and construction Remains viable, as Antioch becomes more central to East Bay Food and beverage
processing/distribution
Remains viable, as more Antioch residents work locally, and industry generally shifts towards more localized production
Utilities Remains viable, although it is noted that most of Antioch’s existing employment in this cluster is concentrated in one specific industry (Wired Telecommunications Carriers); viability of expanding other local utility industries needs to be further investigated Construction products mfg. Remains viable (jobs are generally not subject to remote work, so Antioch’s potential attractiveness as a manufacturing/heavy industrial location remains a strength)
Water transportation Remains viable, based on Antioch’s unique waterfront location (and global demand should be even stronger than before pandemic) Environmental services Remains viable (jobs are generally not subject to remote work, so Antioch’s workforce and physical capacity for these types of heavy industrial activities remain strong selling points)
Distribution/electronic
commerce
East Bay clusters:
IT and analytical instruments Remains viable (with global demand expected to be stronger), subject to the following countervailing conclusions:
• Antioch’s workforce and physical development capacity will continue to make it attractive as a potential manufacturing location
• Business types (e.g., software development) experiencing a shift to remote work may no longer have a cost-based motivation to seek locations in Antioch
Medical devices manufacturing Remains viable (due to potential increases in global demand and low susceptibility to remote work) Automotive manufacturing Biopharmaceuticals
Education and knowledge
creation
Antioch’s position likely diminished by pandemic (potential shift towards virtual delivery of educational services will reduce need for new facility-based operations)
Business services Viability depends on specific business type: Some components of this cluster (i.e., business types not subject to remote work), remain viable; however, for service types that might have previously been attracted to Antioch as a means of seeking less expensive office facilities, the attraction may be diminished by the pandemic B234
Document 2.6
Opportunity Brief –
Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch Employment Center
B235
Opportunity Brief
LONE TREE / SLATTEN RANCH EMPLOYMENT CENTER
Antioch, CA
Overvi
ew
As part of a citywide economic development initiative, the City of Antioch has identified the Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch area as a top priority for future development as a major employment center.
Prof
ile of the Lone Tree / Slatten Ranch Area
Location /
boundaries:
See Figure 1 (boundaries) and Figure 2 (regional location).
Developable area: Total area of 315.5 acres, of which 140 acres is currently undeveloped Existing land uses: Mostly vacant/undeveloped land; southern portion of area includes the Slatten Ranch Shopping Center, which anchors Antioch’s most vibrant regional retail area.
Surrounding built
environment:
This site abuts (and includes a portion of) a vibrant concentration of regional retail facilities (including Slatten Ranch Shopping Center, Empire Shopping Center, Empire Crossings and Lone Tree Plaza) that straddles the Antioch/Brentwood boundary. Key retail anchor tenants include: Target, Bed Bath & Beyond, Barnes & Noble, JC Penney, Best Buy, Office Depot, WinCo, The Home Depot, Kohl’s, Michaels, Petco, Trader Joe’s, Lowe’s and 24 Hour Fitness.
Existing zoning: S-P/Regional Retail/Employment Generating Lands Infrastructure: The site has excellent transportation infrastructure for freight/distribution and for workforce and customer access. The site fronts the SR4 Highway and is immediately adjacent to a Union Pacific Railroad line.
City
’s Vision/Goals for this Area
The undeveloped portion of this site is ideally suited for a range of industrial and/or business park uses, potentially including the following tenant/business types:
• Manufac
turing (e.g., Value Added Advanced Manufacturing or MakerTech within 3 blocks of interchange; potential areas of focus would include Drones/Robotics and Value Added Food Manufacturing)
• Logistics (both warehouse and Just-in-Time) within 3 blocks of interchange • Wholesale trade for value-added industries (e.g., value added food industries, biosynthetic construction materials, agricultural products from East County and Central Valley) • R&D facilities (e.g., life science, biosynthetic building materials) • University/community college field stations related to onsite R&D activities • Ancillary commercial uses (e.g., restaurants and services oriented to the daytime population) • Business hotel (needs to be within one block of and visible from highway interchange) • Possible “Innovation Zone” where office, MakerTech, R&D and entrepreneurial uses can be intermixed in an overlay zoning designation to create collaborative workplaces B236
Antioch’s Market Position
Future development opportunities in Antioch will be strongly enhanced by Antioch’s unique market position, which includes the following features that are advantages over competitor cities in Northern California and out of state:
• Available
land for large industrial development projects (competitively priced compared to Highway 880 Corridor)
• Relatively affordable land for adaptive reuse for warehouse and manufacturing compared to inner SF Bay
• Business friendly City with manufacturing/logistics friendly policies (including flexible zoning for various types of industrial/manufacturing uses)
• Large resident/regional workforce to support business growth • Waterfront / port facilities
• Opportunity to create joint venture programs for Buchannan and Byron Airports, developing the repair, maintenance, and AI software support ecosystems • Opportunity to create a competitive niche related to anticipated buildout of Concord Naval Station over next ten years (develop the repair, maintenance and AI software support ecosystems for major employers and educational institutions that locate in Concord) • Affordable East Bay residential location with attractive open space areas, BART station, and waterfront recreational amenities
City’s S
trategic Investments and Incentives
The City anticipates making the following resources/incentives available to facilitate development of targeted land uses:
• Direct
City investment in marketing / tenant attraction
• Packaging of workforce training and other available incentives (including Federal, State and Contra Costa County resources) for targeted tenants
• Development of employer co-sponsored training programs with Los Medanos Community College, Cal State, and nearby universities (e.g., University of Davis for biosynthetic and or advanced food manufacturing)
• Strategic infrastructure investments (with priorities to be determined in consultation with property owners)
• Facilitation of infrastructure financing mechanisms for property owners • Specific Plan preparation (if needed)
• Fast tracking of any necessary zoning changes
• Expedited entitlement/permitting (including waived fees and streamlined CEQA documentation) • Potential investment in people movers between Amtrak, BART and Bus Stations (i.e., proposed Glydways program)
• Leveraging alliances with neighboring East County cities and service districts, creating regional cooperation in the areas of housing, transportation, telecommunication, educational and workforce development programs.
• Potential positioning of Bryon Airport as a drone freight distribution center B237
Figure 1. Lone Tree/Slatten Ranch Employment Center
B238
Figure 2. Regional Location Map
B239
Document 2.7
Opportunity Brief –
Somersville Employment Center
B240
Opportunity Brief
SOMERSVILLE EMPLOYMENT CENTER
Antioch, CA
Overvi
ew
As part of a citywide economic development initiative, the City of Antioch has identified the Somersville area as a top priority for future development/redevelopment as a major employment center. This opportunity brief provides an overview of anticipated market potentials and available development incentives applicable to this area.
Somer
sville Employment Center
Location /
boundaries:
See Figure 1 (boundaries) and Figure 2 (regional location).
Developable area: Total area of 128.0 acres
Existing land uses: The majority of the land within this area (approximately 145 acres) is currently developed with an older/obsolescent regional shopping mall (Somersville Towne Center), which represents a major redevelopment opportunity within Antioch. Properties around the periphery of the mall are mostly developed with low-density commercial buildings. Business types present in the area include retail/food service, health care and financial services firms. The overall commercial vacancy rate in the Somersville employment center (including the mall and the peripheral buildings) is 32%.
Surrounding built
environment:
This site is mostly surrounded by residential neighborhoods offering a range of housing products/types.
Existing zoning: C-3/Regional Commercial
Infrastructure: The site has excellent regional access based on its adjacency to the SR4 Highway / Somersville Road interchange.
City
’s Vision/Goals for this Area
The Somersville area is ideally suited for repositioning as a mixed-use “village,” whereby the former regional mall would be transformed into a new town center or walkable village retail center. Under this scenario, obsolete department store buildings would be demolished and the inner mall area would be preserved with viable retail tenants. Development around the remaining retail core could include:
• Work
force housing (townhomes and apartments)
• Neighborhood-oriented commercial uses (e.g., grocery, entertainment, fitness facilities, medical clinics and financial institutions)
• Employment-generating industrial uses (including manufacturing and R&D) • Business hotel
The vil
lage concept is intended to attract workers to relocate to Antioch from the inner SF Bay Area who would work at the waterfront, BART station area other local employment centers.
B241
Antioch’s Market Position
Future development opportunities in Antioch will be strongly enhanced by Antioch’s unique market position, which includes the following features that are advantages over competitor cities in Northern California and out of state:
• Available
land for large industrial development projects (competitively priced compared to Highway 880 Corridor)
• Relatively affordable land for adaptive reuse for warehouse and manufacturing compared to inner SF Bay
• Business friendly City with manufacturing/logistics friendly policies (including flexible zoning for various types of industrial/manufacturing uses)
• Large resident/regional workforce to support business growth • Waterfront / port facilities
• Opportunity to create joint venture programs for Buchannan and Byron Airports, developing the repair, maintenance, and AI software support ecosystems • Opportunity to create a competitive niche related to anticipated buildout of Concord Naval Station over next ten years (develop the repair, maintenance and AI software support ecosystems for major employers and educational institutions that locate in Concord) • Affordable East Bay residential location with attractive open space areas, BART station, and waterfront recreational amenities
City
’s Strategic Investments and Incentives
The City anticipates making the following resources/incentives available to facilitate development of targeted land uses:
• Federal Opportunity Zone program (designated area includes Somersville) • Potential expansion of City’s cannabis overlay zone
• Direct City investment in marketing / tenant attraction • Packaging of workforce training and other available incentives (including Federal, State and Contra Costa County resources) for targeted tenants
• Development of employer co-sponsored training programs with Los Medanos Community College, Cal State, and nearby universities (e.g., University of Davis for biosynthetic and or advanced food manufacturing)
• Strategic infrastructure investments (priorities to be determined with property owners) • Facilitation of infrastructure financing mechanisms for property owners • Specific Plan preparation (if needed)
• Fast tracking of any necessary zoning changes
• Expedited entitlement/permitting (including waived fees and streamlined CEQA documentation) • Potential investment in people movers between Amtrak, BART and Bus Stations • Leveraging alliances with neighboring East County cities and service districts, creating regional cooperation in the areas of housing, transportation, telecommunication, educational and workforce development programs.
• Potential positioning of Bryon Airport as a drone freight distribution center.
B242
Figure 1. Somersville Employment Center
B243
Figure 2. Regional Location Map
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ANTIOCH RETAIL AND
SALES TAX LEAKAGE
STUDY
Prepared for: Prepared by:
City of Antioch Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
March 19, 2026
EPS #252047
ATTACHMENT "C"
C1
Table of Contents
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings 2
2. Demographic Overview 4
Comparative Demographics ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 4
3. Demand Factors 18
Retail Demand Growth Factors ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 18 Projected Growth ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 18 Comparative Income Distribution and Taxable Goods Demand ................................ ................................ . 18 Regional Taxable Sales Comparison ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 19 Addressable Taxable Sales and Leakage/Net Capture ................................ ................................ .................. 21
4. Antioch Taxable Sales Performance 22
Antioch Taxable Sales Trends by Category ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 22 Antioch Taxable Sales by Subarea ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 24
5. Regional Context 28
Commercial Real Estate Indicators ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 28 Shopping Center Definitions ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 29 Local Context ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 29 Local Competition ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 31 Other Regional Competition ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 32
6. Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications 35 Downtown’s Recent Growth and Its Potential Future Role ................................ ................................ ......... 35 Where Population Growth has Benefited Antioch’s Retail Sector ................................ ............................. 36 The Mall as a Redevelopment Asset ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 36 Other Areas of Strong Taxable Sales Performance Non-Retail and B2B Sectors ........................... 37 Antioch’s Bright Spots and Potential Opportunities ................................ ................................ ...................... 38 Economic Development Implications ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 40 Appendix A 43
C2
List of Tables
Table 1. Population Trend, 1960 to 2024 ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 5 Table 2. Educational Attainment, Population Aged 25 and Over ................................ ................................ ..... 6 Table 3. Employment Status and Labor Force Participation, Population Aged 16 and Over ...................... 8 Table 4. Commute Characteristics, Population Aged 16 and Over ................................ ............................... 10 Table 5. Labor Force by Occupation and Industry ................................ ................................ ............................ 12 Table 6. Household Income Characteristics ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 14 Table 7. Household Income Growth (2019 to 2024)................................ ................................ ........................ 15 Table 8. Household Size and Room Occupancy ................................ ................................ ................................ 17 Table 9. Housing Costs and Household Income (2024) ................................ ................................ ................... 17 Table 10. Taxable Sales Per Capita ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 20 Table 11. Taxable Sales and Demand Comparison, 2024 ................................ ................................ .................. 21 Table 12. Sales Tax Trend by Category ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 22 Table 13. Sales Tax Trend by Location ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 25 Table 14. Gross Leasable Area and Vacancy Rate by Shopping Center Type ................................ ............... 31 C3
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 Introduction and Summary of Findings
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings
Antioch is situated in the eastern part of Contra Costa, at a strategic location along state Highway 4, which connects communities along the Carquinez Strait from San Francisco Bay to the Central Valley. For decades, Antioch also served as a regional retail provider with a strong base of general merchandise anchor stores and the only indoor regional mall (Somersville Towne Center) serving the East Contra Costa market.
Strong population growth in the market area also helped to bolster Antioch’s retail base.
Antioch’s own population grew by over 45 percent every decade through 2000. The retail development followed suit, including development of lucrative auto mall and regional retail developments. Since 2000, the population has grown at a much slower rate.
In recent years, Antioch has seen its market position erode as surrounding communities have upgraded their retail offerings and population growth has stagnated in Antioch.
Antioch’s taxable sales have underperformed in some key categories in recent years.
Compared to other nearby communities, Antioch’s taxable sales per capita is generally lower. This has led to an overall leakage of taxable sales out of Antioch.
Much of the underperformance has come from the loss of Somersville Towne Center as a viable regional mall. The decline of the mall creates a ripple effect in that retail market segments where Antioch formerly had a presence are no longer viable retail attraction options for Antioch. Other events have further contributed to the erosion of Antioch’s taxable sales base, including the contraction of the auto dealership sales, new duplicative store offerings in Brentwood, and regional competition that carves out retail niches that are not supported in Antioch.
The regional retail market generally has Antioch serving more of the middle market, while Concord can capture retail spending from throughout the region by its high volume of retail stores that cover multiple niches and include higher end retail stores and brands that are not represented in the East Contra Costa market. Walnut Creek serves more of the luxury market, which is also not represented in the East Contra Costa market.
Amid the recent declines in Antioch’s taxable sales base, there have been bright spots as well as potential opportunities. Downtown Antioch has been a bright spot in the city’s recent retail sales picture with taxable sales doubling over the past decade. In addition, retailers in the eastern part of Antioch have benefited from continued population growth in that part of the county, and continue to show strong sales performance despite more limited population growth in the city itself.
With the decline of the mall, its large land parcel has created an opportunity for redevelopment into new housing, which would lead to population growth and new C4
ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3 Introduction and Summary of Findings market support for existing retail stores and attraction potential for new establishments.
Antioch has also seen the strongest income growth in the East Contra Costa market.
Shifts in retail spending habits from higher incomes can create further opportunities for Antioch, in addition to strong performance by non-retail establishments that generate taxable sales through business-to-business transactions.
Altogether, Antioch has seen a period of stagnation in its population trends that carries over to its retail centers. But, dynamic change on the horizon and potential shifts in the market potentially create new opportunities that Antioch can take advantage of.
Antioch’s market position and sales tax situation come down to some key questions:
• How has Downtown fared over the last decade, and what might its future role be?
• Where has the population growth benefited the retail sector? • What kind of potential redevelopment asset does the mall represent? • Where has the strongest sales tax performance come from? • What are Antioch’s bright spots and potential opportunities? This report is organized around different facets of Antioch’s retail market and taxable sales trends in general. The sections are listed as follows:
• 2. Demographic Overview – This section looks at a variety of measures that compare Antioch with state and county benchmarks, and other cities throughout the region. The demographic measures each provide a different way of supporting retail spending and illustrating the nature of the Antioch market.
• 3. Demand Factors – This section estimates the retail growth and leakage factors and looks at how the comparative household spending compares to the taxable sales.
• 4. Antioch Taxable Sales Performance – This section focuses on the detailed taxable sales trends by category and location in Antioch. The analysis identifies areas of strength and weakness for taxable sales trends over the past decade. • 5. Regional Context – This section evaluates the commercial real estate indicators, and how Antioch’s retail centers compare to local and regional competition.
• 6. Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications – This section provides conclusions and findings, and how Antioch’s taxable sales can be potentially supported through its economic development programs.
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ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4 Demographic Overview
2. Demographic Overview
Comparative Demographics
The socioeconomic characteristics of a community illustrate the capacity of a community to support retail spending, which in turn, generates taxable sales.
These demographic indicators are also an important factor in how retail site selectors choose to locate retail establishments. Communities with more attractive demographic indicators would potentially have an advantage in attracting stores deciding between that location versus a different one.
This section provides an overview of how Antioch compares with surrounding communities as well as countywide and statewide characteristics. This provides context for the city’s capacity to support additional retail sales, and how it compares to neighboring communities.
In general, Antioch’s demographic indicators are similar to neighboring Pittsburg, and different from the other neighboring cities of Brentwood and Oakley. In addition, many of Antioch’s demographic indicators suggest more similarity with the countywide indicators for Solano County than for Contra Costa County as a whole.
Population Trend
Antioch currently has the third largest population in Contra Costa County. It experienced growth rates above 45 percent in every decade between 1960 and 2000. The population growth has slowed down since 2000, and the trend since 2020 has shown flat growth (Table 1).
By comparison, Pittsburg’s period of rapid growth leveled off after 1990, and in more recent years has shown a population loss. In addition, Brentwood has its period of explosive growth go through 2010 and level off in more recent years. In addition, Oakley has also had higher recent growth rates.
The cities in the East Contra Costa market had rapid growth during the 1980s and 1990s, but the growth leveled off at different times. In general, Brentwood had its population growth slow down more recently, which also means that it has had more recent retail development activity.
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ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 5 Demographic Overview Table 1. Population Tend, 1960 to 2024
Educational attainment
Antioch’s educational attainment shows that over 87 percent of the population 25 and over has at least a high school education, and around 22 percent have at least a bachelor’s degree (Table 2). This shares great similarity with Pittsburg; and while Antioch’s high school educational attainment is higher than the statewide average, the population with at least a bachelor’s degree is much lower than the statewide average (85 percent).
In addition, Brentwood, Concord, Walnut Creek, and Benicia each have a bachelor’s degree attainment higher than the statewide average. Those communities would potentially have an advantage over Antioch for attracting retailers that are looking for more upscale shoppers.
Year
Antioch
Popul.
Growth
Rate
Pittsburg
Popul.
Growth
Rate
Brentwood
Popul.
Growth
Rate
Oakley
Popul.
Growth
Rate
Concord
Popul.
Growth
Rate
1960 17,305 19,062 2,186 36,208
1970 28,060 62.1% 21,423 12.4% 2,649 21.2% 1,306 85,164 135.2% 1980 42,683 52.1% 33,034 54.2% 4,434 67.4% 2,816 115.6% 103,251 21.2% 1990 62,195 45.7% 47,564 44.0% 7,563 70.6% 18,374 552.5% 111,348 7.8% 2000 90,532 45.6% 56,769 19.4% 23,302 208.1% 25,619 39.4% 121,780 9.4% 2010 102,372 13.1% 63,264 11.4% 51,481 120.9% 35,432 38.3% 122,067 0.2% 2020 115,291 12.6% 76,416 20.8% 64,292 24.9% 43,357 22.4% 125,410 2.7% 2024 115,632 0.3% 75,085 -1.7% 64,811 0.8% 45,736 5.5% 121,513 -3.1% Source: US Census Bureau (via Wikipedia); California Department of Finance (2024 Population Estimate).
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 6 Demographic Overview Table 2. Educational Attainment, Population Aged 25 and Over C8
ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7 Demographic Overview Labor force participation
Compared to the state and county averages, Antioch has an above average labor force participation. However, Antioch’s unemployment rate in 2024 was also over 10 percent, which is higher than the state and county averages, as well as all of the surrounding communities. While Antioch’s unemployment rate is comparable to Pittsburg, it is more than double the unemployment rates for Brentwood and Oakley.1 The unemployment rates for Benicia and Concord are also below 6.0 percent. While the high labor force participation bodes well for retail market support, the high unemployment rate also suggests less persistent support for discretionary retail purchases (Table 3).
1 The demographic indicators for Oakley and Benicia use a five-year average due to insufficient data for the American Community Survey one-year sample.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 8 Demographic Overview Table 3. Employment Status and Labor Force Participation, Population Aged 16 and Over Antioch and Surrounding
Areas Antioch California
Contra
Costa
County
Solano
County Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley [1] Benicia [1] Concord Martinez [1] Fairfield Population 16 years and over 98,771 31,545,603 954,525 369,504 62,921 49,589 34,559 21,997 101,626 30,367 34,559 Employment Status
In labor force 65.2% 63.9% 63.8% 61.1% 64.2% 61.0% 69.0% 62.4% 66.0% 66.7% 69.0% Civilian labor force 64.8% 63.3% 63.7% 59.4% 64.2% 61.0% 69.0% 62.1% 65.9% 66.7% 69.0% -Employed 58.2% 59.3% 58.8% 55.4% 57.8% 58.1% 65.2% 59.7% 62.0% 63.6% 65.2% -Unemployed 6.6% 4.1% 4.9% 4.0% 6.3% 2.9% 3.8% 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 3.8% Armed Forces 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Not in labor force 34.8% 36.1% 36.2% 38.9% 35.8% 39.0% 31.0% 37.6% 34.0% 33.3% 31.0% Civilian labor force 64,001 19,982,482 607,801 219,522 40,388 30,250 23,849 13,669 66,950 20,246 23,849 Unemployment Rate 10.2% 6.4% 7.6% 6.8% 9.9% 4.8% 5.5% 4.0% 5.9% 4.6% 5.5% Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 9 Demographic Overview Commute Pattern
The communities located along the Highway 4 corridor have mean travel times of more than 40 minutes. This is above the statewide average and the averages for both Contra Costa and Solano County (Table 4). It reflects the level of congestion along the corridor and also suggests that a large cross-section of the population has to commute over long distances. This potentially impacts local retail demand because commuters might decide to shop closer to their place of work.
Antioch also has a lower percentage of workers that work from home than all other communities except Pittsburg. Workers that have the option of remote work from home typically work in service or technical occupations. The low percentage of remote workers indicates that the labor force in Antioch is more blue collar. Antioch’s remote work percentage is much lower than the Contra Costa County average, but nearly identical to Solano County.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 10 Demographic Overview Table 4. Commute Characteristics, Population Aged 16 and Over Antioch and Surrounding Areas Antioch California
Contra
Costa
County
Solano
County Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley [1] Benicia [1] Concord Martinez [1] Fairfield Commuting to Work
Workers 16 years and over 57,461 18,331,098 546,458 204,889 35,583 28,430 21,545 12,839 60,889 18,835 55,494 Mode of Transport to Work
Car, truck, or van -- drove alone 65.7% 67.1% 63.5% 75.3% 67.8% 73.9% 73.4% 66.2% 64.9% 65.1% 73.4% Car, truck, or van -- carpooled 19.3% 9.5% 10.8% 8.4% 15.5% 7.9% 8.7% 7.8% 10.7% 7.5% 11.1% Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 3.3% 3.2% 5.5% 2.0% 4.7% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 4.5% 3.4% 1.3% Walked 0.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.1% 3.9% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.7% Other means 0.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 1.6% 2.6% Worked from home 11.0% 15.5% 17.4% 10.9% 11.3% 12.9% 14.6% 20.9% 17.5% 19.5% 9.9% Mean travel time to work (minutes) 41.5 29.0 37.7 30.4 43.2 44.0 41.9 30.9 33.9 30.1 31.9 Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 11 Demographic Overview Employment Pattern for Local Workers
Antioch’s labor force is concentrated in production and service occupations, with below average concentrations of workers in management and professional occupations (Table 5). The lower concentration of workers in management and professional occupations potentially impacts Antioch’s ability to recruit retailers looking to attract more upscale customers.
By industry, Antioch’s labor force is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and education/health care industries. It has a comparatively low proportion of its labor force working in professional services or technical industries. This also reinforces the perception that Antioch and Pittsburg have a more blue-collar population than other nearby communities.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 12 Demographic Overview Table 5. Labor Force by Occupation and Industry
Antioch and Surrounding Areas Antioch California
Contra
Costa
County
Solano
County Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley [1] Benicia [1] Concord Martinez [1] Fairfield Occupation
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 57,461 18,700,223 561,466 204,691 36,393 28,796 22,536 13,123 63,001 19,308 55,161 Management, business, science, and arts occupations 32.3% 42.7% 48.2% 36.2% 30.8% 45.6% 35.1% 52.5% 43.2% 51.3% 34.5% Service occupations 21.3% 17.4% 17.7% 19.4% 24.2% 18.3% 15.7% 13.6% 18.4% 14.0% 20.9% Sales and office occupations 18.3% 19.4% 18.0% 19.2% 20.1% 23.0% 23.0% 21.7% 19.6% 19.5% 20.5% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 12.2% 8.7% 7.3% 12.0% 11.1% 5.8% 12.9% 4.8% 8.8% 6.4% 8.7% Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 16.0% 11.8% 8.8% 13.2% 13.9% 7.4% 13.4% 7.3% 10.1% 8.8% 15.5% Industry
Civilian employed population 16 years and over 57,461 18,700,223 561,466 204,691 36,393 28,796 22,536 13,123 63,001 19,308 55,161 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.5% 2.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% Construction 11.3% 6.7% 7.2% 7.6% 9.8% 6.0% 10.1% 5.7% 8.5% 8.9% 6.6% Manufacturing 5.7% 8.9% 6.4% 8.3% 4.8% 8.9% 4.9% 8.7% 4.4% 4.4% 10.6% Wholesale trade 0.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 1.8% Retail trade 13.2% 10.1% 10.4% 11.0% 15.4% 8.6% 13.2% 9.3% 10.5% 12.4% 9.1% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 7.2% 6.0% 5.0% 6.4% 5.2% 3.4% 6.4% 5.8% 4.9% 3.6% 6.7% Information 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 3.7% 1.9% 0.2% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 4.7% 5.7% 7.1% 5.7% 5.0% 5.1% 7.2% 8.3% 7.4% 6.5% 6.2% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 12.7% 14.3% 18.9% 11.8% 16.0% 12.3% 11.7% 13.3% 18.4% 15.0% 13.7% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 24.3% 21.7% 23.2% 23.2% 22.5% 25.2% 22.5% 23.3% 21.5% 25.3% 18.7% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 7.0% 9.5% 7.3% 8.9% 8.7% 11.1% 7.6% 8.8% 7.9% 6.5% 11.0% Other services, except public administration 6.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.6% 5.5% 11.5% 6.6% 5.7% 6.4% 4.8% 5.8% Public administration 5.5% 4.7% 4.6% 7.3% 4.2% 4.9% 4.4% 6.1% 4.5% 8.5% 8.9% Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 13 Demographic Overview Income pattern and growth
Antioch’s income distribution is concentrated in the middle-income groups with a higher median ($98,000) and mean income ($118,600) than Pittsburg, but lower than other surrounding communities (Table 6). The income characteristics for Antioch share more in common with Solano County than Contra Costa County.
About 15.9 percent of Antioch households earn $200,000 or more. This is roughly half the concentration as the rest of Contra Costa County, which has 29.7 percent of total households earning at least $200,000. While Antioch has a higher concentration of high-income households than Pittsburg, it has a lower concentration than Brentwood, Oakley, Concord, and Benicia.
Antioch residents have a higher-than-average proportion of wage earners. In addition, Antioch has a comparatively high proportion of residents with public assistance income (6.8 percent) and food stamp/SNAP benefits (15.4 percent).
This makes that segment of the population more vulnerable to federal policy changes, which in turn makes the retail support from that part of the population less stable.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 14 Demographic Overview Table 6. Household Income Characteristics
Antioch and Surrounding Areas Antioch California
Contra
Costa
County
Solano
County Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley [1] Benicia [1] Concord Martinez [1] Fairfield Income and Benefits
Total Households 37,795 13,434,847 417,686 160,415 25,580 21,383 13,448 10,916 49,088 14,673 41,239 Income Distribution
Less than $10,000 3.1% 4.4% 3.4% 4.6% 5.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 4.4% $10,000 to $14,999 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% $15,000 to $24,999 4.4% 5.2% 3.7% 5.2% 5.8% 1.7% 2.4% 6.0% 2.6% 1.5% 3.9% $25,000 to $34,999 5.4% 5.5% 4.1% 5.0% 5.1% 2.7% 6.8% 3.4% 5.1% 4.2% 6.7% $35,000 to $49,999 8.3% 8.4% 6.0% 7.3% 10.1% 4.8% 4.1% 5.6% 6.3% 6.3% 7.4% $50,000 to $74,999 13.2% 13.3% 10.9% 15.2% 13.1% 10.3% 7.1% 12.6% 16.0% 10.2% 16.1% $75,000 to $99,999 13.2% 11.8% 10.0% 12.6% 12.3% 10.1% 8.6% 9.0% 11.9% 10.4% 11.2% $100,000 to $149,999 21.7% 17.9% 17.0% 18.4% 19.6% 17.3% 25.1% 20.1% 17.7% 19.3% 20.5% $150,000 to $199,999 11.3% 11.1% 13.4% 11.4% 12.8% 21.0% 18.3% 11.9% 14.1% 17.4% 10.8% $200,000 or more 15.9% 19.4% 29.7% 18.1% 13.3% 27.0% 22.4% 26.9% 21.3% 25.3% 17.7% Median household income (dollars) $97,998 $96,334 $127,221 $94,930 $88,761 $144,110 $132,067 $125,040 $107,318 $125,436 $97,676 Mean household income (dollars) $118,573 $136,730 $175,540 $124,074 $108,246 $154,434 $141,633 $150,700 $146,397 $154,241 $124,292 Source of Income
With earnings 81.2% 80.7% 80.0% 77.3% 83.6% 76.5% 86.6% 76.8% 80.9% 80.0% 78.3% Mean earnings (dollars) $122,992 $137,277 $175,654 $123,560 $104,077 $159,424 $140,613 $146,367 $150,389 $154,241 $123,668 With Social Security 33.4% 28.1% 30.3% 33.8% 31.9% 32.3% 28.0% 37.2% 25.5% 27.2% 30.5% Mean Social Security income (dollars) $22,226 $23,022 $28,404 $25,053 $24,015 $32,806 $22,918 $25,957 $28,056 $28,220 $26,268 With retirement income 22.1% 21.6% 27.1% 29.4% 26.5% 34.5% 24.9% 34.1% 26.5% 29.6% 29.0% Mean retirement income (dollars) $25,674 $39,821 $44,157 $42,319 $25,814 $36,517 $31,247 $55,456 $34,238 $50,552 $40,247 With Supplemental Security Income 8.7% 5.9% 4.8% 5.4% 6.0% 4.7% 5.9% 5.0% 3.0% 3.1% 6.1% Mean Supplemental Security Income (dollars) $11,621 $11,505 $11,602 $11,899 $12,252 $10,568 $10,203 $13,124 $17,479 $11,426 $13,650 With cash public assistance income 6.8% 3.8% 2.6% 2.8% 1.8% 2.6% 1.5% 2.6% 1.4% 3.3% 3.9% Mean cash public assistance income (dollars) $3,993 $6,037 $5,751 $4,279 N $5,839 $3,085 $5,488 $5,888 $3,349 $3,002 With Food Stamp/SNAP benefits in the past 12 months 15.4% 11.4% 9.4% 13.0% 18.2% 3.1% 8.9% 5.9% 6.8% 5.4% 12.8% Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 15 Demographic Overview Income Growth
Between 2019 and 2024, Antioch showed very high growth in household incomes (Table 7). The median household income is used as an indicator for how the middle of the income ranges are moving. They reflect the direction of the broader trend. For Antioch, the median income grow by over 35 percent, which was higher than the state and county income growth; and higher than for Pittsburg, Concord, and Fairfield, which all had median income growth of less than 10 percent. In 2019, Antioch’s median income was below the state median and lower than neighboring Pittsburg. By 2024, the median income for Antioch had moved higher than the state and Pittsburg. This indicates that Antioch has shifted into a middle-income position closer to the state average that makes the community more attractive for retail attraction.
The mean income is another indicator that can be more influenced by shifts towards the upper income ranges. Here too, Antioch showed above-average income growth compared to the state, but still had a mean income below the state average. Concord had the highest percentage growth in mean income, which indicates more high-income households concentrating there.
Table 7. Household Income Growth (2019 to 2024)
Household size
The household size in Antioch shows a large concentration of households with four or more residents (Table 8). This is also the case in Pittsburg, Oakley, and Brentwood. Together with the public assistance numbers, this indicates that the retail base in Antioch draws a lot of spending from larger households with lower wage earners.
Area
2019 Median
Household
Income
2024 Median
Household
Income
Percent
Change
2019 Mean
Household
Income
2024 Mean
Household
Income
Percent
Change
Antioch $72,412 $97,998 35.3% $96,416 $118,573 23.0%
California $80,440 $96,334 19.8% $113,563 $136,730 20.4% Contra Costa County $107,135 $127,221 18.7% $146,387 $175,540 19.9% Solano County $86,652 $94,930 9.6% $105,465 $124,074 17.6% Pittsburg $82,960 $88,761 7.0% $101,695 $108,246 6.4%
Concord $102,477 $107,318 4.7% $118,641 $146,397 23.4%
Fairfield $89,693 $97,676 8.9% $105,386 $124,292 17.9%
Source: US Census American Community Survey (2019 and 2024 one-year sample) C17
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 16 Demographic Overview Housing costs as percentage of income
The average housing costs for Antioch residents ($2,300) in 2024 was higher than the state average, in line with Solano County and lower than Contra Costa (Table 9). This represents about 28 percent of median income overall, but 37 percent of median income for renters.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 17 Demographic Overview Table 8. Household Size and Room Occupancy
Table 9. Housing Costs and Household Income (2024)
Antioch and Surrounding
Areas Antioch California
Solano
County
Contra
Costa
County Brentwood Pittsburg Oakley [1] Benicia [1] Concord Walnut
Creek Martinez [1] Fairfield
Occupied Housing Units 37,795 13,434,847 160,415 417,686 21,383 25,580 13,448 10,916 49,088 34,456 14,673 41,239 Household Size
1 Person 16.0% 24.1% 26.6% 22.6% 14.6% 18.1% 14.2% 30.5% 29.7% 42.3% 26.5% 22.9% 2 Persons 29.6% 30.5% 34.8% 33.3% 30.5% 37.2% 23.0% 32.8% 35.5% 35.3% 35.0% 35.6% 3 Persons 23.4% 16.7% 14.4% 16.3% 20.0% 11.6% 20.6% 17.2% 13.2% 10.1% 17.9% 13.5% 4 or More 31.0% 28.7% 24.3% 27.8% 34.9% 33.0% 42.2% 19.5% 21.7% 12.4% 20.6% 28.0% Occupants Per Room
1.00 or Less 93.9% 91.8% 94.6% 95.3% NA 93.0% 92.3% 98.4% 94.7% 96.8% 97.8% 93.7%
1.01 to 1.50 Occupants 5.2% 5.1% 3.6% 3.5% NA 5.2% 5.7% 0.9% 3.4% 1.5% 1.2% 5.1%
1.51 or More 0.9% 3.1% 1.7% 1.3% NA 1.8% 2.0% 0.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
Median
Monthly
Housing
Cost
Median
Housing
Cost -
Owner-
Occupied
Median
Housing
Cost Renter-
Occupied
Median
Household
Income
Median
Household
Income
Owner-
Occupied
Median
Household
Income
Renter-
Occupied
Housing
Cost as
Percentage
of Median
Income
Housing
Cost as
Percentage
of Median
Income
(Owner-
Occupied)
Housing
Cost as
Percentage
of Median
Income
(Renter-
Occupied)
Percentage
of Owner-
Occupied
Housing
Antioch $2,274 $2,357 $2,192 $97,998 $112,410 $71,412 27.8% 25.2% 36.8% 35.9% California $2,043 $2,166 $1,956 $96,334 $124,150 $69,075 25.4% 20.9% 34.0% 44.2% Contra Costa County $2,598 $2,843 $2,340 $127,221 $157,517 $78,542 24.5% 21.7% 35.8% 31.5% Solano County $2,222 $2,221 $2,223 $94,930 $118,006 $67,387 28.1% 22.6% 39.6% 38.5% Pittsburg $2,226 $2,068 $2,330 $88,761 $120,421 $70,316 30.1% 20.6% 39.8% 41.6% Brentwood $2,385 $3,062 $3,056 $144,110 $154,801 $99,844 19.9% 23.7% 36.7% 18.6% Oakley [1] $2,533 $2,640 $2,031 $132,067 $145,623 $102,313 23.0% 21.8% 23.8% 22.9% Benicia [1] $2,359 $2,427 $2,234 $125,040 $148,016 $67,255 22.6% 19.7% 39.9% 28.8% Concord $2,385 $2,566 $2,300 $107,318 $135,563 $71,329 26.7% 22.7% 38.7% 36.1% Walnut Creek $2,665 $2,793 $2,509 $125,221 $153,741 $77,080 25.5% 21.8% 39.1% 34.1% Martinez [1] $2,473 $2,647 $2,265 $125,436 $150,180 $92,750 23.7% 21.2% 29.3% 29.9% Fairfield $2,317 $2,353 $2,294 $97,676 $112,765 $69,770 28.5% 25.0% 39.5% 38.9% Source: US Census American Community Survey (2024 one-year sample and 2019 to 2023 five-year sample) [1] Due to insufficient sample size for reporting the 2024 one-year sample, the data for Benicia, Martinez, and Oakley use the five-year sample that averages 2019 through 2023.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 18 Demand Factors
3. Demand Factors
Retail Demand Growth Factors
The factors that drive demand come from a combination of income and population.
A key characteristic of retail spending is that while it tracks with household income, retail demand and income do not grow at the same rate. For example, as incomes rise the retail spending increases, but the percentage of income that is applied towards retail goods goes down. So, it is not a one-to-one relationship.
This section provides an overview of the factors that drive retail demand, as well as a comparative estimate of the supportable spending from Antioch and the surrounding communities.
Projected Growth
According to the latest regional projection (June 2025) from the Association of Bay Area Governments’ (ABAG) Plan Bay Area 2050+, the eastern Contra Costa County communities (Antioch, Brentwood, Oakley, and part of Pittsburg) are projected to add 19,000 households between 2023 and 2050 for a total of 120,000 households.
This works out to an annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. By comparison, the employment growth forecast for the eastern Contra Costa County communities shows a projected growth rate of 1.1 percent. This will slightly shift the area into less of a bedroom community. Employment growth will also increase taxable sales through commuter spending and potential business-to-business point-of-sale transactions.
Comparative Income Distribution and Taxable Goods
Demand
The distribution of income is a key factor in determining the level of retail sales demand. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) shows that taxable goods spending as a percentage of income will decline as incomes go up.
The taxable goods spending will range from 127.5 percent of income for households earning less than $15,000 to 13.8 percent of income for households earning $200,000 or more.2 The majority of households in Antioch earn between $50,000 and $200,000, and their percentage of income going towards taxable goods spending ranges from 20.1 to 27.5 percent. On a per capita basis, the 2 Households with incomes below $15,000 might also receive other forms of direct public assistance, and include households that receive other forms of monetary assistance beyond earnings and other income.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 19 Demand Factors
taxable goods spending will range from $3,683 for households earning less than $15,000 to $17,378 for households earning at least $200,000.
The detailed taxable good spending estimates are in Appendix A.
Regional Taxable Sales Comparison
Antioch’s taxable sales per capita lags behind neighboring communities and the county averages. Antioch’s key strength has been general merchandise stores, where its taxable sales per capita have been higher than the county averages and the averages for surrounding communities. However, this advantage will potentially shift with the new Costco location in Brentwood cannibalizing some sales from the Antioch location. The decline of the mall contributes to the decline in many categories, as mall-based retailers will typically drive apparel store and specialty retail sales—categories in which Antioch’s sales underperformances have been most pronounced. The decline of the mall also contributes to Antioch’s lower per capita sales for restaurants, which often locate adjacent to malls.
However, as a percentage of overall household income, the taxable retail sales in Antioch are in line with the overall average in Contra Costa County and below the average for Solano County. It should be noted that the average incomes for Contra Costa County as a whole are higher than in Antioch, and high-income households will typically spend a lower percentage of their income on retail goods (Table 10).
• Concord dominates the taxable sales per capita, and much of this is driven by auto sales. However, Concord has an outsized role as a regional retail provider, and likely captures a significant amount of leakage from Antioch, Pittsburg, and the adjacent unincorporated northern waterfront communities, such as Bay Point.
• Brentwood’s per capita sales are below the county average. Much of this was driven by its below average general merchandise sales. But, the new Costco will change that substantially. Brentwood already has a large advantage with restaurants and clothing stores, and the proximity to Antioch would indicate that a high proportion of this capture likely comes from Antioch. • Pittsburg has overall per capita sales similar the Contra Costa County average.
Its best performing category is general merchandise (it should be noted that the public data does not yet capture the full effect of the Target store closure).
Most other retail categories generally track with the per capita averages for Contra Costa County. Clothing stores and other retail stores are the only categories where Pittsburg significantly underperforms. • The per capita taxable sales for Oakley are well below the county average, and underperforms in nearly all retail categories, relative to the county. This indicates that Oakley residents shop in the surrounding communities at a high rate for most retail goods.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 20 Demand Factors
Table 10. Taxable Sales Per Capita
Business Category Antioch
Contra Costa
County
Solano
County Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley Benicia Concord Martinez Fairfield Walnut
Creek
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $1,148 $2,137 $3,047 $1,767 $1,546 $263 $440 $6,463 $498 $3,757 $1,911 Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $354 $604 $419 $545 $408 $17 $113 $680 $76 $293 $589 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers $661 $1,225 $1,093 $1,018 $1,636 $0 $740 $3,662 $2,152 $1,078 $1,101 Food and Beverage Stores $648 $900 $765 $998 $1,414 $468 $1,161 $1,038 $1,034 $646 $1,079 Gasoline Stations $883 $1,437 $1,642 $1,360 $1,928 $1,334 $2,122 $1,516 $1,317 $1,828 $1,470 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $191 $1,059 $960 $295 $1,178 $76 $57 $1,278 $86 $789 $318 General Merchandise Stores $2,969 $1,592 $2,185 $4,572 $334 $38 $404 $2,630 $1,389 $2,091 $4,944 Food Services and Drinking Places $1,290 $2,171 $2,226 $1,986 $3,302 $1,160 $2,512 $3,058 $1,656 $2,122 $2,148 Other Retail Group $887 $2,548 $2,338 $1,365 $1,166 $453 $1,955 $1,328 $1,131 $1,023 $1,476 Total Retail and Food Services $9,029 $13,673 $14,675 $13,905 $12,912 $3,808 $9,503 $21,652 $9,340 $13,626 $15,037 All Other Outlets $3,799 $5,594 $8,950 $5,850 $1,308 $1,446 $11,779 $5,277 $3,042 $7,496 $6,326 Total All Outlets $12,828 $19,267 $23,625 $19,755 $14,220 $5,254 $21,282 $26,929 $12,382 $21,122 $21,363 Retail Percent of Total Taxable Sales 70.4% 71.0% 62.1% 70.4% 90.8% 72.5% 44.7% 80.4% 75.4% 64.5% 70.4% Retail Taxable Sales as Percent of Household Income 22.9% 22.4% 32.9% 36.3% 22.4% 8.6% 15.0% 46.5% 14.7% 30.9% 18.7% Population (2024) 115,632 1,146,626 446,426 75,085 64,811 45,736 26,033 121,513 36,439 120,339 69,433 Households (2024) 37,164 416,907 160,162 23,998 21,806 14,353 10,970 46,215 15,049 40,786 33,109 Average Household Size (2024) 3.09 2.72 2.72 3.12 2.96 3.18 2.37 2.60 2.35 2.90 2.06 Median Income (2024) $97,998 $127,221 $94,930 $88,761 $144,110 $132,067 $125,040 $107,318 $125,436 $100,126 $125,221 Mean Income (2024) $118,573 $175,540 $124,074 $108,246 $154,434 $141,633 $150,700 $146,397 $154,241 $130,079 $168,043 Taxable Sales Per Capita
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 21 Demand Factors
Addressable Taxable Sales and Leakage/Net Capture
As shown in Table 11, Antioch has an aggregate demand of $1.1 billion in household taxable goods spending. This works out to an average of $9,755 in taxable goods demand per capita. Antioch’s per capita taxable goods spending is higher than Pittsburg ($9,644) and Concord ($8,217), and lower than Brentwood ($11,415) and Oakley ($11,599).
Compared to the taxable retail sales per capita, Antioch has a per capita leakage of $726 in taxable retail sales. Pittsburg, Brentwood, and Concord each have a per capita surplus (net capture) of regional taxable sales, while Brentwood has a large leakage of nearly $7,800 in taxable retail sales per capita. Concord’s per capita retail sales of $21,642 indicates that it pulls spending from well beyond its boundaries.
Concord’s high per capita taxable sales are most pronounced in auto sales.
Table 11. Taxable Sales and Demand Comparison, 2024
Brentwood’s taxable sales surplus is around $1,500. This indicates that Brentwood captures sales leakage from Antioch. Brentwood’s location also makes it the closest major retail center for unincorporated communities to the south, such as Discovery Bay and Byron, which lack significant retail services beyond local-serving essentials.
Pittsburg’s per capita net taxable sales capture of $4,261 indicates that they also capture significant sales from Antioch, and the surplus is high enough to indicate that they also capture sales from neighboring unincorporated areas along the northern waterfront, such as Bay Point and Pacheco. It should be noted that this does not account for the closure of the Target store location in Pittsburg.
Oakley’s per capita leakage indicates that their retail centers do not capture significant sales from surrounding communities, and the majority of retail spending demand goes outside of Oakley.
Community
Taxable Retail
Sales per Capita
Taxable Retail
Demand Per Capita
Per Capita Surplus
(Leakage)
Antioch $9,029 $9,755 ($726)
Pittsburg $13,905 $9,644 $4,261
Brentwood $12,912 $11,478 $1,435
Oakley $3,808 $11,599 ($7,791)
Concord $21,652 $8,217 $13,436
Source: CDTFA; BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey; U.S. Census Bureau ACS Table S1901; EPS.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 22 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance
4. Antioch Taxable Sales Performance
Antioch Taxable Sales Trends by Category
Over the past decade, Antioch’s taxable sales has averaged about 4.3 percent annual growth (Table 12). This includes substantial growth in general merchandise stores. However, about half of that growth in general merchandise has been eroded over the past year. The largest sales gains have occurred in business-to- business establishments, while the largest losses have occurred in auto sales. The more recent trend shows declines across many categories in 2025 indicating some consumer uncertainty in the retail market. However, it should be noted that adding the data from the first two quarters of 2025 generally shows negative year-over-year sales tax change.
Table 12. Sales Tax Trend by Category
2016 2019 2020 2024
2025 Q2 (4-
Quarter Total)
2016 to 2025
Q2 Change
2024 to 2025
Q2 Change
2016 to 2025
Q2 CAGR
Business to Business $705,438 $2,564,033 $1,956,009 $3,186,428 $3,108,598 $2,403,159 ($77,831) 20.7% Apparel Stores $283,094 $288,911 $171,283 $208,299 $233,120 ($49,975) $24,821 -3.8% Automotive $2,894,381 $3,030,749 $2,671,602 $2,867,693 $2,790,730 ($103,650) ($76,962) -0.1% Auto Parts/Repair $321,126 $359,060 $347,723 $402,299 $390,574 $69,448 ($11,725) 2.9% Auto Sales - New $1,760,948 $1,434,558 $1,355,813 $1,082,823 $1,032,629 ($728,320) ($50,195) -5.9% Auto Sales - Used $9,779 $38,011 $44,499 $40,929 $45,039 $35,260 $4,110 19.6% Misc. Vehicle Sales $8,403 $8,233 $10,996 $6,421 $8,752 $349 $2,331 -3.3% Service Stations $794,124 $1,190,887 $912,572 $1,335,221 $1,313,737 $519,613 ($21,484) 6.7% Building Materials $1,019,735 $1,066,496 $1,267,524 $1,231,923 $1,352,704 $332,969 $120,781 2.4% General Merchandise $2,822,547 $2,925,202 $2,848,390 $3,403,390 $3,198,055 $375,507 ($205,335) 2.4% Food $1,764,290 $2,097,247 $1,970,979 $2,316,126 $2,278,955 $514,665 ($37,171) 3.5% Food Markets $537,998 $635,535 $660,249 $666,916 $640,777 $102,779 ($26,138) 2.7% Food Processing $2,038 $1,548 $1,807 $12,333 $12,721 $10,683 $388 25.2% Liquor Stores $106,207 $130,366 $160,185 $171,576 $169,300 $63,093 ($2,276) 6.2% Restaurants $1,118,046 $1,329,797 $1,148,738 $1,465,302 $1,456,156 $338,110 ($9,145) 3.4% Other Retail $1,105,946 $1,317,964 $1,544,596 $1,513,934 $1,454,141 $348,195 ($59,793) 4.0% Drug Stores $130,430 $109,118 $496,619 $375,925 $371,013 $240,583 ($4,912) 14.1% Florist/Nursery $36,509 $30,906 $35,287 $29,440 $21,189 ($15,320) ($8,252) -2.7% Furniture/Appliance $155,050 $452,366 $358,748 $367,448 $350,397 $195,347 ($17,051) 11.4% Recreational Products $125,107 $99,816 $109,003 $44,228 $39,925 ($85,181) ($4,303) -12.2% Miscellaneous Retail $658,850 $625,758 $544,939 $696,893 $671,617 $12,767 ($25,275) 0.7% Other Taxable Sales $90,453 $77,481 $71,066 $117,944 $129,438 $38,985 $11,493 3.4% Total Sales Tax $10,685,884 $13,368,083 $12,501,449 $14,845,737 $14,545,740 $3,859,856 ($299,997) 4.2% Source: City of Antioch Sales Tax
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 23 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance General Merchandise
This category broadly captures a combination of discount stores/supercenters, warehouse clubs, traditional department stores, and variety/dollar stores. Antioch used to have a formidable base of traditional department stores. However, the loss of the department store anchors at the Somersville Towne Center leave only the JCPenney store at Slatten Ranch, and significantly reduces a key component of what used to be a stronger performing category. The recent opening of the Brentwood Costco location has also cannibalized general merchandise sales in Antioch, while the closure of the Target store in Pittsburg likely increased sales capture in Antioch
Automotive
The automotive sales include a combination of auto parts/repair shops, new car dealerships, used car dealerships, and gasoline stations. The most recent sales tax data for Antioch shows a steep decline in new car dealership sales and modest gains in auto parts/repair sales. Annual sales tax receipts from new car dealerships declined from $1.7 million in 2016 to $1.0 million in 2025 (through 2nd quarter).
Used car dealership sales have quadrupled over the past decade, but remain at a comparatively low sales tax total of $45,000. Gasoline stations have increased their sales tax generation by $519,600 for an annual total of $1.3 million (through 2nd quarter 2025). It should be noted that gasoline sales will vary considerably through global trends that are out of the City’s control.
Building Materials
The building materials category includes both retail and wholesale building materials distributors, including hardware stores, home centers, paint stores, plumbing, garden supply, and similar businesses. The demand for this category will typically include a large component of professional and contractor sales. The annual sales tax for this category totaled about $1.3 million (through 2nd quarter 2025), with only modest sales growth over the past decade. Growth in demand for this category will typically follow new housing development and population growth.
Food
This category includes food stores, restaurants, liquor stores, and food processing.
Most of the activity in this category is concentrated in food stores and restaurants.
Food stores will typically generate the majority of their overall sales with non- taxable food items. Taxable transactions for these stores will generally come from prepared foods, taxable beverages, and taxable non-grocery items. The food stores in Antioch saw modest gains over the last decade, with 2.7 percent annual growth and an annual total of $640,800 in sales tax (through 2nd quarter 2025). This parallels the slow population growth in Antioch. Antioch’s food stores include C25
ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 24 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance supermarkets as well as smaller scale grocery stores and ethnic food stores catering to Latino and Asian consumers.
Restaurants include a combination of full-service and limited-service restaurants, catering services, bars, and other food service businesses. Antioch’s restaurants also had modest sales tax growth over the past decade with a 3.4 percent annual growth and a total sales tax of $1.5 million.
Other Retail
The “other retail” group broadly captures specialty retail categories, such as drug stores, florists/nurseries, furniture and appliance stores, sporting goods/recreation, and miscellaneous retail.
Drug stores had the largest taxable sales gain over the past decade with a 14 percent annual growth rate and total sales tax receipts of over $370,000. It should be noted that most drug stores are pharmacies with most of their sales coming from prescription drugs, which are non-taxable. However, the data also includes cannabis dispensaries, which were first legalized in California in 1996 for medical use and in 2016 for recreational use. Cannabis sales are taxable, so most of the growth in this category likely comes from cannabis.
Nurseries and florists showed a decline in sales over the past decade.
Furniture and appliance stores more than doubled their taxable sales over the past decade with annual sales tax receipts (4-quarter average through 2nd quarter of 2025) of more than $350,000.
The sporting goods and recreational products category declined by more than half over the past decade.
Miscellaneous retail stores had minimal change in taxable sales over the past decade.
Antioch Taxable Sales by Subarea
Geographically, Antioch’s taxable sales are concentrated in Slatten Ranch, Costco, the Lone Tree corridor, the Deer Valley Square area, and Downtown. Each of these areas generated over $400,000 in sales tax (four-quarter total through the 2nd quarter of 2025), as shown in Table 13.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 25 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance Table 13. Sales Tax Trend by Location
Slatten Ranch
Slatten Ranch is located on the eastern boundary of Antioch, along the Lone Tree corridor. It is situated adjacent to other retail centers that are located in the City of Brentwood. It is also located close to the City of Oakley to the north.
Slatten Ranch has had modest annual sales growth since 2016, with about 2.9 percent annual sales growth and over $2.0 million in sales tax generated. The center benefits from a diverse range of stores, including Target and Five Below.
There is also a JCPenney store that opened in 2007 as a standalone location and continues to operate.
The sales tax data indicates strong sales, and information from the commercial brokerage that handles the center also indicates that most of their chain store tenants are very high performers compared to other stores in the same chain. The center is located right at the Antioch-Brentwood boundary, and contiguous to retail centers in Brentwood. Slatten Ranch blends in with the adjacent retail centers located in Brentwood and attracts shoppers from outside of Antioch.
Retailers located at Slatten Ranch include Target, Best Buy, Hobby Lobby, Petsmart, BevMo, Sephora, Old Navy, Pet Food Express, Five Below, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and multiple full- and limited-service restaurants. 2016 2019 2020 2024
2025Q2 (4-
Quarter
Total)
2016 to
2025Q2
Change
2024 to
2025Q2
Change
2016 to
2025Q2
CAGR
18th Street $152,330 $165,475 $183,290 $180,226 $171,845 $19,515 ($8,381) 2.1% Auto Center Corridor $1,819,655 $1,518,234 $1,421,808 $1,135,334 $1,080,654 ($739,001) ($54,680) (5.7%) Contra Loma Lucky Center $58,748 $60,169 $71,799 $65,249 $70,777 $12,029 $5,528 1.3% Deer Valley Square Area $353,675 $390,361 $323,258 $432,185 $429,414 $75,739 ($2,771) 2.5% Delta Fair Area $435,665 $469,432 $424,914 $357,507 $344,193 ($91,472) ($13,313) (2.4%) Downtown Specific Plan Area $198,850 $318,966 $313,859 $415,432 $428,315 $229,465 $12,883 9.6% Hillcrest Country Market $213,168 $269,506 $239,104 $251,069 $245,943 $32,775 ($5,126) 2.1% Lone Tree Corridor $983,790 $1,095,677 $961,166 $1,065,535 $1,064,333 $80,543 ($1,202) 1.0% Northeast Tax Agreement $298,785 $404,968 $557,384 $432,888 $414,684 $115,899 ($18,204) 4.7% Other Downtown $3,132 $7,122 $10,555 $14,640 $11,113 $7,982 ($3,526) 21.3% Slatten Ranch $1,655,552 $1,923,813 $1,732,034 $2,087,123 $2,064,707 $409,156 ($22,416) 2.9% Somersville Towne Center $477,878 $377,929 $192,775 $121,409 $117,701 ($360,178) ($3,708) (15.7%) Other Antioch Areas or
Undefined [1] $4,034,656 $6,366,430 $6,069,504 $8,287,141 $8,102,062 $4,067,405 ($185,080) 9.4% Total $10,685,884 $13,368,083 $12,501,449 $14,845,737 $14,545,740 $3,859,856 ($299,997) 4.2% Source: City of Antioch Sales Tax
[1] This category includes businesses not located in defined retail districts, and individual businesses redacted to protect data confidentiality.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 26 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance Somersville Towne Center
The Somersville Towne Center has seen its taxable sales erode by nearly 80 percent over the decade, with about $117,700 in annual sales tax generated. The mall has seen most of its anchor locations vacated, and the only remaining anchors are Smart & Final and 24 Hour Fitness. Neither of the anchor stores connect directly to the mall interior. The remaining stores that generate sales tax include jewelers and shoe stores.
Prominent stores at the mall that have closed since 2017 include Macy’s, Sears, Factory 2-U (Pallas), Forever 21, GNC, Journeys, Bath and Body Works, and Victoria’s Secret,
According to City staff, the main mall building will be redeveloped into housing, while other existing uses on the exterior will remain.
Auto Center
The Antioch Auto Center is located at the Antioch-Pittsburg boundary, and is driven by the three new car dealerships that currently operate. The Auto Center has had the largest decline in taxable sales over the past decade, with a net loss of $739,000 in annual sales tax receipts during that time.
In 2016, the Auto Center was the highest sales tax generating retail district in Antioch. However, the Hyundai dealership in Antioch closed in 2017, and the remaining dealerships have experienced sales declines. Large price increases in new car prices have also contributed to a broad decline in auto sales in general.
Delta Fair Corridor
The retail centers along Delta Fair have also seen declines of over 20 percent over the past decade. These centers have several underutilized anchor store spaces.
The prominent retail sales tax generators along Delta Fair are gas stations, auto parts stores, Dollar Tree, and restaurants.
Deer Valley Square Area
The Deer Valley Square Area consists of community shopping centers that primarily serve the nearby Antioch households. This retail area has seen annual growth of about 2.5 percent over the past decade, indicating that it has continued to serve its local-serving retail role in a market area with limited population growth during that time. The annual sales tax for the area totals about $429,400 (four-quarter total through 2nd quarter of 2025). The primary sales tax generators for this area include Safeway, Ross, Dollar Tree, Sherwin-Williams Paint, Dollar Tree, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and limited-service restaurants.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 27 Antioch Taxable Sales Performance Downtown Antioch
Downtown Antioch has more than doubled its taxable sales over the past decade.
This is the strongest percentage gain among the major retail centers in Antioch during that time, with an annual growth rate of nearly 10 percent and total sales tax of $428,300. The businesses driving the area are diverse, and the largest sales tax generators include restaurants, car rentals, variety stores, auto parts/service, and a cannabis dispensary.
Lone Tree Corridor
The centers that make up the Lone Tree corridor include the Walmart center and the retail areas that the City references as “Area 2.” Together, these areas generate over $1 million in sales tax in the four-quarter period ending in the 2nd quarter of 2025. The recent growth trend for the area has been flat. Prominent retailers in these areas include gas stations, Walmart, DD’s Discounts, Save Mart, restaurants, and Big 5 Sporting Goods.
Other Antioch Areas
The business-to-business sales, other neighborhood centers, and standalone businesses in other parts of Antioch together make up about $8.1 million of the $14.5 million in sales tax that Antioch collected in the four-quarter period ending in the 2nd quarter of 2025. This is over double the sales tax for these areas in 2016.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 28 Regional Context
5. Regional Context
Commercial Real Estate Indicators
National Trends
Nationally, the retail commercial real estate market showed vacancy rates remaining near historic lows. According to Cushman and Wakefield’s US Shopping Center Report, the vacancy rate for retail shopping centers was 5.7 percent in the 4th quarter of 2025. This was a year-over-year increase from the 5.4 percent vacancy rate in the 4th quarter of 2024. This showed some recovery from the start of the year, which saw uncertainty over tariffs and retail store closures. The report also noted that high quality retail space is scarce in most markets, and that the amount of new retail space coming into the market in 2025 was an all-time low and 63 percent below the annual averages for 2015 to 2019.
In addition, e-commerce adoption peaked during the pandemic, reaching 16.3 percent of total retail sales during the 2nd quarter of 2020.3 After a drop in e- commerce adoption as stores reopened, e-commerce reached 16 percent of retail sales again in 2024. However, the year-over-year growth of e-commerce has slowed over the past year. In the 3rd quarter of 2025, e-commerce share of retail reached 16.4 percent, the first time that adoption has surpassed the pandemic peak. However, the year-over-year growth was minimal, as the 3rd quarter of 2024 percentage of total retail sales was 16.2 percent. This indicates that the strength of demand for physical stores has accompanied a leveling off of e-commerce growth.
Concurrently, retail store construction has also been at a low point.
Regional Trends
The Contra Costa County commercial real estate market data shows that the Highway 4 corridor had a total retail inventory of 8.8 million square feet of retail space, with an overall vacancy rate of 8.4 percent. This is right at the average for Contra Costa County, but above the vacancy rate for the East Bay (7.5 percent) and the 680 corridor (6.4 percent).
For 2025, the Highway 4 corridor had an overall net absorption of -22,900 square feet. The overall asking rent averaged $25.89 per square foot, which was below the average for the 680 corridor ($32.29 per square foot). Only 4,500 square feet of retail space is under construction along the Highway 4 corridor, while over 264,700 square feet of space is under construction along the 680 corridor. 3 Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis (FRED); E-Commerce Retail Sales as a Percent of Total Sales (ECOMPCTSA); 2000 to 2025 Q3.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 29 Regional Context
Shopping Center Definitions
Retail shopping centers typically follow a set of descriptors that are commonly used in commercial real estate market reports and other publications. The list below shows the definitions used by the International Council of Shopping Centers • Super Regional: These centers are similar to regional malls, but offer more variety with spaces over 800,000 square feet. The trade area is typically 5 to 25 miles. • Regional: These developments typically are typically enclosed with floor area ranging from 400,000 to 800,000 square feet. Tenants typically include general merchandise, fashion-oriented offerings, entertainment attractions, and food- and-beverage services. The trade area is typically 5 to 15 miles. • Community: These centers typically range from 125,000 to 400,000 square feet. Tenants will typically include a supermarket, drug store, and other specialty retailers. The trade area is typically 3 to 6 miles. • Neighborhood: These retail centers are smaller versions of community centers with a floor area ranging from 30,000 to 125,000 square feet. Anchor stores are usually supermarkets. The trade area is typically 3 miles. • Strip/convenience: These centers generally do not include an anchor store and will include convenience retail, with a floor area of less than 30,000 square feet and a trade area of about 1 mile or less.
• Power Center: These developments specialize in large category-dominant anchors, such as discount stores, home improvement, or warehouse clubs.