They will typically range from 250,000 to 600,000 square feet and have a trade area of 5 to 10 miles.
• Lifestyle Center: These centers will focus more on specialty stores, dining, and entertainment in an outdoor setting. They typically range from 150,000 to 500,000 square feet with a trade area of 8 to 12 miles.
Local Context
Antioch’s retail centers combine for a total of about 3.2 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA).4 These retail centers make for interesting contrasts, with some very high performing centers and a failing regional retail asset. With the mall no longer viable, Antioch’s market position generally aligns with more of the middle market brands. According to data from CoStar, neighborhood and community centers made up the largest portion of the shopping center floor area, with over 62 percent. Somersville Towne Center has a total of 506,000 square 4 The CoStar data only includes shopping centers, and does not include retail developments with a single retail store, such as the Costco store.
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feet, while power center development at Slatten Ranch makes up about 449,100square feet of space.
The data shows an overall vacancy rate of about 8.1 percent for Antioch’s shopping centers. The regional mall has the highest vacancy rate, with the data showing 15.2 percent. However, a walk-through the indoor section of the mall showed that 3 of the 5 anchor spaces are currently empty, along with most of the indoor storefronts. This indicates that those spaces are likely not included in the vacancy tabulation. The mall is the only regional retail center in Antioch, and the loss of the anchor tenants eliminates the mall as a retail destination for shoppers living outside of the local trade area. The main competition for the mall was the super regional centers located in Concord and Fairfield.
For the power center at Slatten Ranch, the data shows no vacancies. There is one empty anchor store space, but it is not considered vacant because of pending uses. As indicated by the low vacancies and the retail sales, Slatten Ranch is a high performing retail center and is located in close proximity to other high performing retail developments in Brentwood. Broker interviews indicate that Slatten Ranch has some of the highest performing locations for individual retail chains, and that Antioch’s community centers have also been performing well.
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Table 14. Gross Leasable Area and Vacancy Rate by Shopping Center Type Local Competition
The East Contra Costa commercial market generally shows the highest vacancies around Pittsburg, while Brentwood has shown the lower vacancy rates and newer retail centers that accommodate more upscale businesses. Oakley does not have retail centers that attract far beyond the city boundaries.
Brentwood
Retail centers in Brentwood account for about 2.5 million square feet of space.
Data from CoStar indicates that Brentwood’s shopping centers have a vacancy rate of about 3.8 percent. About 49 percent of Brentwood’s shopping center square footage is in community and neighborhood centers, while 42 percent of the floor area is in either lifestyle or power centers.
Brentwood has a power center located right at the city boundary shared with Antioch. The 459,500 square foot Lone Tree Plaza power center is located across Lone Tree Way from Slatten Ranch in Antioch, and is anchored by Kohl’s, Trader Gross Leasable Area (sq.ft.)
by Shopping Center Type [1] Antioch Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley Concord Walnut
Creek Fairfield
Community Center 824,661 447,478 398,779 0 788,041 380,610 737,755 Lifestyle Center 0 0 366,342 0 253,864 0 0
Neighborhood Center 1,151,429 457,698 839,179 344,316 1,318,934 1,305,567 609,665 Power Center 449,142 278,490 706,332 0 686,504 0 0
Regional Mall 505,998 538,074 0 0 0 0 0
Strip Center 252,655 131,788 225,010 117,047 257,820 187,610 457,816 Super Regional Mall 0 0 0 0 1,322,663 863,838 1,333,433 Total 3,183,885 1,853,528 2,535,642 461,363 4,627,826 2,737,625 3,138,669 Vacancy Rate by Shopping
Center Type [2] Antioch Pittsburg Brentwood Oakley Concord Walnut
Creek Fairfield
Community Center 3.9% 13.1% 1.2% NA 6.0% 3.3% 7.3%
Lifestyle Center NA NA 0.0% NA 3.2% NA NA
Neighborhood Center 10.3% 12.1% 6.4% 9.5% 6.0% 5.2% 8.7% Power Center 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 1.3% NA NA
Regional Mall 15.2% 29.5% NA NA NA NA NA
Strip Center 12.0% 4.4% 1.3% 6.8% 6.7% 10.0% 2.4%
Super Regional Mall NA NA NA NA 0.0% 0.0% 8.9%
Total 8.1% 15.0% 3.8% 8.8% 3.5% 3.6% 7.5%
Source: CoStar; EPS.
[1] The shopping center data does not include individual retail buildings without shared tenant spaces. [2] The vacancy rate might not include empty spaces that are still under lease or not being actively marketed.
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Joe’s, and Home Depot. These stores do not have comparable locations in Antioch. Broker interviews indicate that Lone Tree Plaza retail stores operate at a similarly high level as those located at Slatten Ranch.
The Streets of Brentwood is a 358,700 square foot lifestyle center that opened in 2008. The center is currently undergoing a renovation, but all 5 of its anchor spaces are occupied alongside a 14-screen movie theater. The center includes a 21,000 square foot Barnes & Noble book store that had previously operated at Slatten Ranch. Other anchor stores include Ulta Beauty and DSW, which do not have any other locations serving the East Contra Costa market.
This center fills a large part of the market role in the East Contra Costa market that Somersville Towne Center had previously occupied. Retailers operating at the Streets of Brentwood that were formerly located at Somersville Towne Center include Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works. The operator also owns the successful Veranda lifestyle center in Concord, and the Bay Street center in Emeryville.
Pittsburg
Retail centers in Pittsburg make up a total of 1.9 million square feet of retail space.
About 44 percent of this space is classified as either a regional mall or power center.
Pittsburg has the highest vacancy rate in the East Contra Costa market at 15 percent.
The 538,100 square foot Century Plaza is classified as a regional mall, but operates more as a power center with a 16-screen movie theater and major anchor spaces that include a former Target store, Ross, Five Below, and Burlington. Several casual restaurants and fast food eateries are also located at the center, including In-N-Out, Taco Bell, Chick-Fil-A, Olive Garden, Outback, and Red Lobster. The store selection generally caters to the middle market, and does not include higher end retail concepts.
The center is situated within the Pittsburg city limits, but is likely a primary source of sales leakage out of Antioch because of its location directly adjacent to the Antioch boundary. CoStar data indicates that the center has a 30 percent vacancy rate that likely includes the vacant Target store that closed in 2024.
Oakley
Oakley’s shopping centers are limited to locally-focused neighborhood and strip commercial centers with a total inventory of 461,400 square feet of space. These centers have a vacancy rate of 8.8 percent and likely do not attract significant spending from Antioch households.
Other Regional Competition
Lifestyle retail is the major category where Antioch formerly had a major presence with Somersville Towne Center, but has now largely ceded to regional competitors. Concord, Walnut Creek, and Fairfield each have major developments that create competitive issues for Antioch.
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Concord
Concord has the largest concentration of taxable retail sales across multiple categories, and this is supported by a variety of different retail centers that cater to regional markets. These centers include the 1.3 million square foot Sunvalley Mall, the 230,500 square foot Willows power center, and the 253,900square foot Veranda lifestyle center.
Overall, Concord has 4.6 million square feet of shopping center space with about 49 percent of that space taken up by super regional, lifestyle, and power centers.
The vacancy rate is only 3.5 percent.5
The Sunvalley mall is anchored by two Macys, JCPenney, and Sears. The Veranda lifestyle center is anchored by a Luxe Cinema, and other major tenants include Whole Foods, Dave & Buster’s, Sephora, City Sports, Yard House, Barnes & Noble, TJ Maxx, Cost Plus, and Old Navy. The lifestyle center also includes several restaurants and personal services businesses with more of an upscale focus.
The Willows power center includes stores such as REI, Old Navy, Daiso, and has evolved into more of a dining destination with restaurants that include Mendocino Farms, Fuddruckers, Eureka, Benihana, California Fish Grill, and Lazy Dog.
5 The CoStar data does not show any vacancies with Sunvalley Mall. However, a San Francisco Chronicle article about the mall from November 2025 (“This East Bay mall faces a financial crisis - even though it's full of stores”) indicated that Sunvalley has a vacancy rate of 13 percent.
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Walnut Creek
Walnut Creek has retail centers and stores that cater to regional shoppers and luxury markets. The city has a total of 2.7 million square feet of shopping center space, none of which is located in a power center. The vacancy rate for Walnut Creek shopping centers is about 3.6 percent with the highest vacancies in strip centers.
Walnut Creek has half of its retail square footage located in neighborhood centers, while 863,800 square feet are in Broadway Plaza, which is classified as a super regional mall and has higher end tenants than the other super regional malls in Concord and Fairfield.
Walnut Creek occupies a unique niche in that they have stores that serve the upper end of the market and do not have locations in any of the East Contra Costa communities or in Concord. This includes chains like Tiffany & Co., Apple, and Crate and Barrel.
Fairfield
Shopping centers in Fairfield have a total of 3.1 million square feet of space, with a vacancy rate of 7.5 percent. The only regional retail center in Fairfield is the 1.3 million square foot Solano Town Center super regional mall. Solano Town Center has a vacancy rate of 8.9 percent, and major anchor tenants include Macy’s, JCPenney, Dave & Buster’s, and Dick’s. One of the anchor spaces is currently vacant. Most of the national brands located at the mall are also represented elsewhere in either the East Contra Costa market or the 680 corridor.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 35 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications
6. Major Conclusions and Economic
Development Implications
As indicated in the introduction, Antioch’s retail market and sales tax trends have navigated a series of occasionally contradictory characteristics and trends. This all leads to some key questions that were listed in the introduction. • How has Downtown fared over the last decade, and what might its future role be? • Where has the population growth benefited the retail sector? • What kind of potential redevelopment asset does the mall represent? • Where has the strongest sales tax performance come from? • What are Antioch’s bright spots and potential opportunities? Even though Antioch has seen its population growth slow down in recent years, it remains an area with dynamic changes occurring with an evolving retail market and land use opportunities. This section discusses those key questions, and addresses how the City’s opportunities and liabilities interact with its economic development initiatives.
Downtown’s Recent Growth and Its Potential Future Role
As noted earlier, downtown Antioch has seen recent sales growth and some promising new business development. While the area has seen some recent investments, particularly with the waterfront restaurants, downtown Antioch is still perceived as needing more development momentum before it can see more transformative change occur.
The historic building stock in the downtown area gives Antioch a starting point for new business development and placemaking. Downtown Antioch has an attractive location along the waterfront, and it currently has a station that serves the Amtrak line connecting the Bay Area to the Central Valley.
Existing commercial buildings provide a starting point for entrepreneurs in retail sales, entertainment, and food service, as well as a variety of professional and personal services. Opportunities for downtown would also potentially include mixed-use development and housing.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 36 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications Where Population Growth has Benefited Antioch’s Retail
Sector
While its population growth has also slowed over the past decade, Brentwood’s main population growth has occurred in more recent years. So, the growth to the east of Antioch has benefited the retail centers on that side of the city because of the higher incomes represented by the newer population growth, as well as the income growth that Antioch itself has experienced. The Slatten Ranch retail center and adjacent retail stores along the Lone Tree corridor at Highway 4 represent Antioch’s key location for attracting spending from areas outside of the city due to its proximity to Brentwood, Oakley, and the unincorporated communities to the south.
While Slatten Ranch has been Antioch’s most successful retail center over the past decade, with stores that rank among the highest performing locations for their respective chains, the center also has strategically located vacant sites to the north of the center.
The JCPenney store is a standalone location that remains open despite a string of recently announced closures by the retail chain. It is situated adjacent to Slatten Ranch.
North of that store, there are multiple land parcels that are identified as potential retail development locations. The JCPenney location opened in 2008. However, there has been no other retail development activity north of that property. The vacant parcels are on the boundary shared with Oakley, with the properties along Highway 4 located in Antioch.
Additional vacant parcels are located in Oakley. So, any market potential for the parcels in Antioch close to Slatten Ranch would also apply to the parcels in Oakley.
They are well situated for retail development. However, the perception by brokers is that while Slatten Ranch and the nearby retail centers in Brentwood have seen historically strong performance, the market remains overbuilt for retail. The perception seems confirmed by the lack of new retail development occurring in Antioch after the JCPenney location was built.
A strategic question for the City would whether these parcels remain in reserve as future retail development locations or should they transition into other in-demand uses such as housing or industrial development.
The Mall as a Redevelopment Asset
One of the most important strategic locations in Antioch is the Somersville Towne Center. Originally developed as the outdoor East County Mall in 1963, the mall has been expanded and renovated multiple times. However, the broader decline of indoor malls as a primary retail center has resulted in a smaller number of malls that can be supported in a typical market.
Even though Somersville Towne Center serves as the only mall in the East Contra Costa market, it is bordered by the Sunvalley Mall in Concord and the Solano Town Center in C38
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 37 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications Fairfield, which are both indoor malls with at least twice as much floor area as Somersville Towne Center. Competition also comes from more lifestyle-focused developments, such as the Veranda in Concord, Broadway Plaza in Walnut Creek, and the Streets of Brentwood center.
While the competing malls have vacant anchor spaces, they have not experienced the broad loss of tenants that Antioch experienced. The decline of Somersville Towne Center has had a ripple effect on Antioch’s ability to attract and retain retailers in a broad range of categories.
While the Somersville Towne Center has seen a steep decline that began before the pandemic, it remains a large contiguous land area that occupies a prominent location adjacent to Highway 4. Redevelopment of the property becomes a strategic asset.
The older neighborhood shopping centers along Delta Fair Boulevard have declined alongside the mall. The 173,500 square foot Delta Fair Shopping Center was built in 1974, while the 52,700 square foot Delta Square center was built in 1988. While they are more viable as business locations, they have not seen recent investment and some anchor spaces are either empty or current utilized by non-retail entities such as churches.
Plans to redevelop much of the mall property into housing would help the City by raising the level of activity at a highly visible and accessible location along Highway 4. New activity at that location would help to improve the perception of Antioch.
Given the comparatively low population growth over the past decade after many decades of very high growth, additional housing units at that location would have a potentially catalytic effect for commercial space demand and new business development focused around more current retail concepts. New housing could also support the market by potentially bringing in higher income households and demographics that could increase interest in Antioch from national and regional retailers.
Other Areas of Strong Taxable Sales Performance Non-
Retail and B2B Sectors
In addition to the strong performance with Slatten Ranch area, Antioch has seen very strong growth with non-retail and business-to-business sectors. While they do not depend on consumer demand, they are important sources of taxable sales for Antioch.
Expansion of export-focused businesses (basic industries) is key to growing taxable sales in non-retail businesses.
Taxable sales from point-of-sale transactions can come from wholesale trade or other distributors.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 38 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications Point of Sale Outreach
Another opportunity for increasing sales tax is to ensure that businesses operating in the city designate Antioch as the point-of-sale for taxable sales transactions. This can be integrated into any outreach efforts that the City has through business retention and expansion activities.
Other potential opportunities would include designating the City as a point-of-sale for large capital equipment purchases. This can be done as part of large infrastructure or other capital improvement projects that include capital equipment purchases.
Antioch’s Bright Spots and Potential Opportunities
As indicated by the analysis, Antioch’s retail and taxable sales picture has several components that are complicated by the presence of strong regional retail centers that place Antioch within their normal trade area. However, despite Antioch’s decline as a regional retail provider, there are numerous opportunities and local bright spots that point to potential opportunities. These opportunities derive from broader national trends as well as more localized conditions.
Broader National Trends
Across the country, the commercial real estate sector is seeing growth in retail leasing activity and new store openings.6 For the short-term, this activity is expected to continue growing, with restaurants in particular.
While leasing and lease rates are expected to continue trending upward, new retail construction is expected to decrease by 37 percent in 2026, which will keep supply tight nationally.7
Shopping center valuations are also expected to continue seeing strong valuations, except with regional malls. With consumer spending, grocery-anchored centers and neighborhood shopping centers are also performing well.8 This trend was confirmed through interviews with brokers serving the East Contra Costa market. Foot traffic has also picked up in areas that have seen workers returning to office locations.
According to placer.ai, some of the national retail brands to watch in 2026 include the following:9
• H-E-B (not currently in CA)
• Michaels (location in Brentwood)
6 International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC); “11 Retail Real Estate Predictions for 2026”; January 30, 2026. 7 Colliers; The 2026 CRE Outlook – The 2026 CRE Reset: Stability Through Uncertainty; December 2, 2025. 8 JP Morgan; “2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook”; January 6, 2026. 9 Placer.ai; “10 Top Brands to Watch in 2026”; January 12, 2026.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 39 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications • Walmart (location in Antioch)
• Dillard’s (not currently in CA)
• Pop Mart (location in Fairfield)
• 7 Brew (not currently in CA)
• Dave’s Hot Chicken (location in Brentwood)
• HomeGoods (location in Brentwood)
• EōS Fitness (closest location in Southern CA)
• Chuck E. Cheese (locations in Brentwood and Concord)
East Contra Costa Market
The East Contra Costa market shows very strong performance. Broker interviews indicate that retail lease rates have increased over the past 5 years, and the trends for the commercial real estate market have been going up. The Slatten Ranch retail center sold for $31 million on February 24, 2026, which further confirms the perception that investors see value in the market, and its potential.10 The perception with the East Contra Costa market in particular though is that retail space is overbuilt.
The retail market has seen demand for medium-sized retail locations of around 4,000 to 8,000 square feet. These spaces can potentially be created by dividing larger anchor spaces. A potential vulnerability for Antioch is with its limited recent population growth, which potentially affects older local-serving neighborhood centers. An example of this would be Raley’s supermarket in Antioch, which recently announced that it would close in April 2026.11 The most recent population growth in the East Contra Costa market has been higher in Oakley and Brentwood.
Potential Retail Concepts
While new retail concepts are likelier to locate in the inner Bay Area locations, some successful concepts could make their way into the East Contra Costa market.
Grocery anchors nationally have shown resiliency. In the Bay Area, specialty grocers have been in an expansion mode, particularly those focused on Latino and Asian consumer markets. Asian grocers in particular have been expanding their market presence in the Bay Area, and begun repurposing former department store spaces into combination grocery stores and food court developments. Examples include the recently announced 100,000 square foot flagship location for Korean grocery chain H-Mart in Fremont at a former Kohls store, and the 75,000 Jagalchi grocery store at the former JCPenney store at Serramonte Center in Daly City.
Broker interviews indicated that there is also potential for new recreational concepts that incorporate wellness experiences and/or workout spaces with retail sales. These include 10 Avalos, George and Bay Area News Group; “Slatten Ranch Shopping Center lands Florida buyer – Deal shows Bay Area retail sites still entice buyers”; February 25, 2026.
11 Avalos, George and Bay Area New Group; “Raley’s to Close Antioch Location and Slash Dozens of Jobs”; February 26, 2026.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 40 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications the Dick’s House of Sport, or the newer wellness-focused spaces with LA Fitness. Sports Basement is a regional sporting goods brand that has communal experiences going along with retail sales.
Nationally, Amazon has begun testing a new general merchandise concept that could potentially compete with Walmart or Target.
Filling In the Auto Center
Antioch has seen a broad sales decline with its auto center, which currently has three new car dealerships that sell Toyota, Nissan, and Chrysler-Jeep vehicles. While part of the auto sales decline in Antioch resulted from the Hyundai dealership relocation, the remaining dealerships have also seen sales declines. Brentwood has a Ford dealership, while Pittsburg has dealerships that carry Hyundai, Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford.
However, the largest concentration of auto sales in the area is in Concord. The dealerships in Concord sell cars from 14 different manufacturers, including all of the makes represented in Antioch, Pittsburg, and Brentwood. The dealerships in Concord include luxury brands, such as BMW, Lexus, Acura, and Audi, in addition to mainstream brands not currently represented in the East Contra Costa market, such as Mazda, Buick- GMC, Kia, and Mitsubishi.
Walnut Creek car dealerships carry 9 different makes, with a focus on luxury brands not represented elsewhere in Contra Costa County, such as Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Land Rover, and Porsche. Walnut Creek also has dealerships for Subaru and Volkswagen, which are also not represented in the East Contra Costa market.
The expansion opportunity for Antioch would potentially be with the mainstream brands in Concord and Walnut Creek that currently lack a presence in the East Contra Costa market. In addition to potential sales tax from vehicle sales, dealerships also generate large taxable sales from repair services. A key for any expansion would begin with ensuring that existing dealerships have what they need to keep those dealerships competitive.
Economic Development Implications
Antioch’s evolving retail market, flat population growth, growing income, and regional competition create opportunities and challenges for economic development in Antioch.
The local conditions necessitate ensuring that the City’s economic development program is in tune with the local business community and market changes.
Direct Business Outreach and Point-Of-Sale Outreach
Antioch currently coordinates its business retention and expansion (BRE) efforts through the Antioch Business Collaborative. This effort coordinates eight small business organizations that are under contract with the City, and focuses on providing business C42
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 41 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications advice, access to capital, and small business training. According to City staff, 22 percent of the businesses assisted through this collaborative have been retailers.
The BRE program could also proactively expand outreach efforts to focus on maintaining existing sales tax revenues and building awareness of on-the-ground conditions that might affect individual businesses and their potential to generate taxable sales. For example, if businesses are looking to relocate or close, the outreach could identify potential actions that would retain those businesses or identify business climate factors that the City can address even if the relocation still occurs. The outreach can also identify the attributes of Antioch that make the place attractive for businesses, and better position the City to capitalize on those attributes.
The outreach would include prioritizing the contacts based on the top tax generating businesses in Antioch, the top tax generating sectors, and specific retail districts. As part of the outreach, the City should also ensure that businesses located in Antioch have designated the city as the point-of-sale for taxable transactions. Because many of the top sales tax generators in Antioch come from non-retail business categories, any proactive outreach effort should also include those businesses.
Maintain Contact with Commercial Broker Community
Commercial brokers are an important source of market intelligence, and ongoing communication is a key part of anticipating potential shifts in the market and opportunities with retail stores looking to locate in Antioch. Because shopping centers will frequently change hands, it is important to stay current with the brokers that manage the developments in Antioch. The City recently added a subscription to CoStar, which is a good resource for identifying trends and the current brokers in Antioch.
The commercial real estate perspective is important to understanding the outside perspective for how prospective tenants view Antioch. If there are negative perceptions, then these conversations represent an important first step towards addressing how the City is viewed by outsiders. Concurrently, these communications can also identify positives that the City can capitalize on.
Utilize Housing Growth as Vehicle for Strengthening Antioch’s Retail Profile
Antioch has seen some recent dynamic change in its income patterns. This helps to strengthen the community’s position for potential attraction and retention of quality retail tenants. However, future retail development potential could still depend on population growth within Antioch. Increased retail demand will accompany housing growth. If the new housing supports higher income households, then the growth will also potentially make the area more attractive for new retail concepts. With potential housing being discussed for the mall site, this is a retail repositioning opportunity in a high-profile location. It could also serve as a catalyst for refreshing the retail centers in the areas that have had recent sales declines.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 42 Major Conclusions and Economic Development Implications Focus Placemaking Efforts on Downtown
Downtown Antioch has seen recent growth. But, the perception of the area is that it will still need to demonstrate evidence of momentum before more development investment comes to Downtown Antioch. Placemaking efforts in Antioch focused on Downtown can help build and nurture the momentum that is already reflected in the sales tax growth trends.
The City was engaged in forming a business association for Downtown Antioch and had issued an RFP with downtown businesses to help organize an association. However, funding for that effort was ultimately redirected to other programs. Currently, there is an effort underway to create an action plan for the Downtown through a grant from the National League of Cities. This effort will focus on community engagement and capacity building for the Downtown. That type of engagement will be essential to ensuring that any efforts directed towards downtown have credibility with the community.
Strategic Approach to Image Building Efforts
Antioch is seen as an attractive location with good demographic numbers that can support a wide range of retail concepts. However, there are also issues with Antioch’s image. Because of its high visibility along Highway 4, the City needs to be mindful of how Antioch is perceived by people who do not live there. If the City wants to engage in an image-building campaign, it will need to focus on strategic locations and build an awareness of how Antioch is seen by non-residents.
Continue Economic Diversification Efforts
Antioch has historically served as a bedroom community. However, efforts to diversify the community’s economic base, as identified through the City’s 2022 Economic Development Strategic Plan (Natelson Dale; “Reinvest Antioch”; September 13, 2022), can have a concurrent effect of strengthening the City’s sales tax base. Antioch is also part of an industrial preservation strategic effort through the Metropolitan Transportation Commission that is looking at strengthening the industrial business presence along the County’s Northern Waterfront communities.
Non-retail businesses operating in Antioch already account for over 30 percent of taxable sales. Point-of-sale transactions have been growing in Antioch, and continued growth of export-driven businesses is a vital part of growing the City’s tax base. In addition to revenues generated by non-retail businesses, additional sales tax capture can occur through spending by commuters who work in Antioch and live elsewhere.
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Appendix A
Table A-1 Taxable Goods Spending by Antioch Households.......................................... 41 Table A-2 Taxable Goods Spending by Pittsburg Households ....................................... 42 Table A-3 Taxable Goods Spending by Brentwood Households ................................... 43 Table A-4 Taxable Goods Spending by Oakley Households ........................................... 44 Table A-5 Taxable Goods Spending by Concord Households ........................................ 45 C45
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Table A-1. Taxable Goods Spending by Antioch Households C46
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 45 Appendix A
Table A-2. Taxable Goods Spending by Pittsburg Households Income Range
CES Mean
Income [1]
Taxable Goods
Spending as %
of Income [2]
Pittsburg
Households
(1/2024) [3]
Household
Taxable Goods
Spending [4]
Taxable Goods
Spending Per
Capita
Less than $15,000 $7,265 127.5% 1,848 $21,332,619 $3,711 $15,000 to $29,999 $22,684 41.1% 1,985 $23,051,727 $3,732 $30,000 to $39,999 $34,918 38.4% 1,619 $27,043,606 $5,369 $40,000 to $49,999 $44,781 31.1% 1,914 $33,274,895 $5,587 $50,000 to $69,999 $59,346 27.5% 2,836 $57,756,041 $6,545 $70,000 to $99,999 $83,578 25.3% 3,381 $88,981,593 $8,459 $100,000 to $149,999 $121,816 22.2% 4,294 $144,786,133 $10,836 $150,000 to $199,999 $171,339 20.1% 2,921 $125,376,471 $13,794 $200,000 and more $317,711 13.8% 4,145 $226,877,307 $17,593 Total 24,943 $748,480,392 $9,644
Adjusted Total [4] 23,998 $720,122,255 $9,644
Source: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey; U.S. Census Bureau ACS Table S1901; EPS. [1] Mean Income within each income range comes from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Retail goods represent consumer expenditure categories typically provided through retailers.
Retail goods can be sold through physical stores and e-commerce and other remote providers. [3] Household income distribution comes from the 2023 American Community Survey. [4] Household spending adjusted to average household size (CES average 2.5 persons per HH) C47
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 46 Appendix A
Table A-3. Taxable Goods Spending by Brentwood Households Income Range
CES Mean
Income [1]
Taxable Goods
Spending as %
of Income [2]
Brentwood
Households
(1/2024) [3]
Household
Taxable Goods
Spending [4]
Taxable Goods
Spending Per
Capita
Less than $15,000 $7,265 127.5% 1,062 $11,645,985 $3,524 $15,000 to $29,999 $22,684 41.1% 1,300 $14,330,788 $3,544 $30,000 to $39,999 $34,918 38.4% 719 $11,413,380 $5,099 $40,000 to $49,999 $44,781 31.1% 783 $12,932,667 $5,305 $50,000 to $69,999 $59,346 27.5% 1,356 $26,220,214 $6,215 $70,000 to $99,999 $83,578 25.3% 2,215 $55,357,119 $8,033 $100,000 to $149,999 $121,816 22.2% 5,017 $160,626,571 $10,290 $150,000 to $199,999 $171,339 20.1% 3,074 $125,266,511 $13,099 $200,000 and more $336,370 13.8% 7,074 $389,294,325 $17,688 Total 22,600 $807,087,559 $11,478
Adjusted Total [4] 21,806 $778,732,359 $11,478
Source: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey; U.S. Census Bureau ACS Table S1901; EPS. [1] Mean Income within each income range comes from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Retail goods represent consumer expenditure categories typically provided through retailers.
Retail goods can be sold through physical stores and e-commerce and other remote providers. [3] Household income distribution comes from the 2023 American Community Survey. [4] Household spending adjusted to average household size (CES average 2.5 persons per HH) C48
ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 47 Appendix A
Table A-4. Taxable Goods Spending by Oakley Households
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ANTIOCH RETAIL AND SALES TAX LEAKAGE STUDY
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 48 Appendix A
Table A-5. Taxable Goods Spending by Concord Households C50
Economic
Development Antioch
Past, Present, and Next!
Part 1 – First Quarter 2026
March 2026
ATTACHMENT "D"
D1
Past, Present, and NEXT
Reinvest
Antioch
Strategic Plan
(2022)
Natelson
Dale Group
Sales Tax Leakage
Report
(2026)
EPS
General Plan
Update
(2026 - )
Current
GENERAL PLAN
(2003)
D2
CITY OF ANTIOCH
3 The existing/current
General Plan (2003)
Chapter 6.0 –
Economic
Development
Element
D3
CITY OF ANTIOCH
4 The existing/current
General Plan (2003)
Chapter 6.0 –
Economic
Development
Element
D4
CITY OF ANTIOCH
Natelson Dale Group
Economic Development Strategic Plan, 2022
5 D5
CITY OF ANTIOCH
6 What is being
done?
1) …expanding the inventory of sales tax generating
uses (Section 6-1)
Prepare a “Sales Tax Leakage Study” to determine
where revenue from its citizenry is being spent.
2) …keep impact fees to the minimum (p.6 - 3 p.6 -
10)
Prepare an “Impact Fee Study that surveys impact
fees in Antioch as compared to Brentwood, Oakley
and Pittsburgh) – 2014 completed.
Current update study underway with EPS.
D6
CITY OF ANTIOCH
7 Next Steps:
• Quarterly Reports
• Fo
llow up from EPS Sales tax Leakage
Study (2026)
• Presentation of current General Plan
Goals, Policies & Implementation (2003)
• Presentation on Natelson Dale Strategic
Plan (2022)
• Status on General Plan Update process
D7
D8
OAKLAND
SACRAMENTO
LO S ANGELES
DENVER
www. epsys. com
Antioch Retail and Sales
Tax Study
March 24, 2026
ATTACHMENT "E"
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1
AGENDA
1. Ov erv i ew and K ey Questi ons
2. Re g io n a l Co n t e xt
3. De m o g ra p h ic s
4. Dem and Factors
5. T axabl e Sal es
6. Co n c lu sio n s a n d Ec o n o m ic De ve lo p m e n t Im p lic a t io n s E2
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2
PRESENTATION TEAM
DAVID
ZEHNDER
SENIOR PRINCIPAL
Principal-In-Charge
PETER
CHENG
VICE PRESIDENT
Project Manager
E3
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3
ABOUT ECONOMIC & PLANNING SYSTEMS
Real Estate Economics
Public Finance
Land Use & Transportation
Economic Development & Revitalization
Fiscal & Economic Impact Analysis
Housing Policy
Public Private Partnerships (P3)
Parks & Open Space Economics
AREAS OF EXPERTISE
Founded in 1983, EPS is a land
economics consulting firm
specializing in real estate
development, public finance,
and land-use policy.
E4
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4
ANTIOCH OVERVIEW
• Antioch is situated at a strategic location along Highway 4 E5
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 5
ANTIOCH OVERVIEW
• Population grew rapidly through 2000 and has become stagnant since then • Taxable sales have declined in recent years
• Contributing factors
– Decline of So mersville Town Center
– Contraction of auto dealership sales
– Competition from other nearby communities, most notably Brentwood, Concord, and Wa
lnut Creek
– Changes in shopping habits
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ANTIOCH OVERVIEW OF KEY QUESTIONS
• What are Antioch’s bri ght spots and potential opportunities? • How has Downtown f ared over the last decade, and what might its future role be? • Where has the population growth ben efited the retail sector? • What kind of potential redevelopment asset does th e mall represent? • Where has the strongest sales tax performance com e from? E7
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7
REGIONAL CONTEXT
• National retail trends
– Low vacancy rates - national average of 5.7% in 4th quarter – Scarce high quality retail space
– Vulnerability to tariffs and other market volatility
• Regional trends: hig h vacancy rates, lower lease rates, low construction activity – Highway 4 corridor has a retail vacancy rate of 8.4%, which is higher than the 680 corridor – Asking rents average $26, compared to $32 for the 680 corridor – Virtually no new construction on the Highway 4 corridor, compared to 264,700 sq. ft. along the 680 corridor
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REGIONAL CONTEXT
• Local context: lo t of retail space, very strong power center and community centers, mall on the decline
– Antioch has 3.2M sq. ft. of shopping center space with an overall vacancy rate of 8.1 percent
– Slatten Ranch is a high performing power center that has 449,100 sq. ft. and no vacancies in the data. The center was recently sold for $31M.
– Somersville To wne Center is no longer a viable regional asset • Local competition: st rong emerging competition from Brentwood, established capture from Pittsburg
– Brentwood has 2.5M sq. ft. of retail center space with 3.8 percent vacancy – Streets of Brentwood has taken up the lifestyle retail role that the mall used to fill – Pittsburg has 1.9M sq. ft. of retail center space. The 538,100 sq.ft. Century Plaza is their primary regional retail asset
– No viable regional retail in Oakley
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REGIONAL CONTEXT
• Other regional competition: Co ncord covers the same market as Antioch and adds upscale and regional retail; Walnut Creek is the main center in the region for luxury goods
– Concord has 4.6M sq. ft. of shopping center space, and covers a broad range of retail offerings. The Sunvalley mall, Willows power center, and Veranda lifestyle center have low vacancies and a variety of anchor tenants.
– Walnut Creek has 2.7M sq. ft. of retail center space, and it taps into luxury markets that other centers in the surrounding communities do not serve. – Fairfield has 3.1M sq. ft. of retail center space with a 1.3M sq.ft. super regional mall.
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DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic Measure Comparison Market Implications
Overall Demographics Antioch shares similarities with
Pittsburg and Solano County
Supportable stores will have more
in common with other similar
communities
Population Growth has shifted east, but
slowed down
Newer retail centers closer to
Brentwood, slower demand
growth for East Contra Costa
market
Educational Attainment Antioch high school education is above average, while college
education is below avg.
Support for middle market brands.
Less potential for upscale or
luxury market
Labor Force Participation Antioch has high labor force
participation, but also high
unemployment
More households with wage
earnings. High unemployment
affects discretionary spending.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 11
DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic Measure Comparison Market Implications
Commute Pattern Average commute times for
Highway 4 corridor communities
over 40 minutes. Antioch has a
lower percentage of remote
workers.
Potential loss of sales to work
places. Remote workers spend
more time and money close to
home.
Labor Force Characteristics Labor force focused around
production and service
occupations, less concentration in
management and professional
occupations
Strong middle market support.
Less support for upscale and
luxury retail.
Income Characteristics Antioch has higher income
distribution than Pittsburg, but
lower than other nearby Contra
Costa County communities.
Good market support overall.
Other places more attractive for
more upscale brands.
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DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic Measure Comparison Market Implications
Earnings and Public Assistance Antioch has a high proportion of wage earners, but also has a
higher-than-average proportion of
residents with public assistance
income
Wage earnings and public
assistance both support retail
demand. Public assistance is more
vulnerable to policy changes.
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DEMAND FACTORS
• Retail demand comes from a combination of population, demographic, and income fa
ctors. Does not track exactly with income.
• Antioch households have a total taxable goods spending of about $1.1 billion or $9,755
per capita. Per capita spending is higher than Pittsburg and Concord and lower than Brentwood
– Antioch has a net leakage of about $726 per capita of taxable goods spending, compared to a
surplus of $1,500 for Brentwood and $4,200 for Pittsburg – Concord dominates the per capita taxable sales. Much of this is driven by auto sales and co
ncentration of regionally focused retail centers
– Brentwood’s per capita sales are below the county average, but the new Costco will likely cha
nge that
– Pittsburg’s per capita sales are similar to the county averages. General merchandise was the
ir strongest category, but that could change with the Target store closure – Oakley’s per capita sales underperform in nearly all categories E14
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 14
TAXABLE SALES BY CATEGORY
• Antioch taxable sales have incre ased by about 4.3% annually over the past decade. • L argest sales gains have been in business-to- b usiness activity, and the largest declines in auto sales
• General merchandise is Antioch’s largest source of taxable sales. It has grown, but seen recent erosion
• Auto dealerships have seen the largest decline of any taxable sales category in Antioch ov
er the past decade
• Building materials and food establishments have had modest sales growth over the pa
st decade
• Other retailers showed a mixed trend, with the largest taxable sales growth occurring in d
rug stores (data includes cannabis)
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SALES TAX BY CATEGORY
$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Business to Business
Apparel Stores
Auto Parts/Repair
Auto Sales - New
Auto Sales - Used
Service Stations
Building Materials
General Merchandise
Food Markets
Liquor Stores
Restaurants
Drug Stores
Furniture/Appliance
Miscellaneous Retail
Other Taxable Sales
Sales Tax by Category (Annual thru 2025 Q2)
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 16
TAXABLE SALES BY LOCATION
• Antioch’s taxable sales are concentrated in Slatten Ranch, Costco, the Lone Tree co
rridor, Deer Valley Square area, and Downtown
• Slatten Ranch has b een a strong performer with a variety of stores that benefit from its location adjacent to Brentwood
• Somersville To wne Center was Antioch’s main regional retail asset, and it has seen its taxable sales decline by 80 percent over the past decade • Auto Center was the highest sales tax generating district in Antioch a decade ago, but has
seen decline from $1.7 million in sales tax to $1.0 million • The Delta Fair corridor has seen a 20 percent decline.
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 17
TAXABLE SALES BY LOCATION
• Deer Valley Square and the Lone Tree Corridor have significant retail roles in Antioch, and have seen modest growth over the past decade
• Downtown Antioch ha s more than doubled its taxable sales over the past decade • Business-to-b usiness sales, standalone businesses, and other retail centers have doubled their taxable sales over the past decade
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FINDINGS
• Mall area redevelopment
– Housing wou ld add new consumers and potentially elevate the income profile for Antioch, and level of activity in a highly visible location
• Retail trends
– National trends are seeing growth in retail leasing activity, even though new construction ha
s lagged
– Shopping center valuations remain high, except for regional malls • East Contra Costa market
– Strong performance wit h rising lease rates and valuations, but still oversupplied – Opportunities with demand for medium sized retail spaces (4k to 8k sq. ft.) E19
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FINDINGS
• Potential retail concepts
– Specialty grocers – Lat ino and Asian
– Recreational uses co mbined with retail spaces
– New general merchandise concepts (e .g., Amazon)
• Filling in the auto center
– If a 4th dealership is a viable option, there are ma kes not present in the local market – Identify potential spaces and potential improvements to the Auto Center corridor • Slatten Ranch Vacant Parcels
– Slatten Ranch is Antioch’s strongest retail asset currently, and there are vac ant parcels adjacent to the center
– Strategic question on whether parcels should remain in reserve for futur e retail or transition to other high demand uses
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FINDINGS
• Mixed use development and Downtown
– Downtown has been a significant growth center over the past decade – Perception is that mo re development momentum is needed before it can see more transformative change
– Opportunities for mixed use development and housing, and reuse of existing buildings for a
variety of businesses
• Non-retail and B2B
– Strong growth that does not depend on consumer demand – Growth in expo rt-focused businesses can increase taxable transactions E21
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 21
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS
• Direct business outreach and point-of-s ale outreach
• Maintain contact with commercial broker community
• Utilize housing growth as vehicle for strengthening Antioch’s retail profile • Focus placemaking efforts on downtown and be mindful of community needs • Strategic approach to image building efforts
• Continue e conomic diversification efforts
• Continue wo rkforce development efforts
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Thank you!
E23