Description of Project Land Uses
ASI is in an unincorporated area of the County. The ASI site encompasses a total of about 437 undeveloped acres (excluding approximately 38 acres of Caltrans 1-5 Fee Title Right of Way) that are currently used for agricultural purposes.1 The Project is located directly south of Metro Air Park (MAP) and I-5, southwest of the Northlake development in the City, and west of the North Natomas Community Plan in the City.
Surrounding development in the area includes Sacramento International Airport and adjacent commercial development sites; MAP; Amazon SMF-1 Fulfillment Center; Life Storage Facility; Westlake and Northlake subdivisions; West Drainage Canal; Paso Verde School; and other undeveloped agricultural land. The Project was recently annexed into the City’s sphere of influence (SOI). However, before construction activity can begin, the Project will require discretionary approval by the Sacramento Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCo) to annex the Project into the City.
The proposed Project will encompass development of 311.3 net developable acres.2 Public facilities and internal roads will account for another 125.3 net acres. Applicant- sponsored warehouse distribution uses make up most of the developable net acreage (235.6 acres), while future industrial uses owned by non-participating landowners make up 62.3 net acres. Applicant-sponsored highway commercial uses, including restaurant, fueling station, and hotel uses, constitute the remaining 13.4 net acres of developable land.
The total planned development will result in 5.7 million square feet of building area at buildout. For reference, the maximum allowable building area under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) is around 6.7 million square feet. The CEQA maximum square footage is not used for the financial estimates in this summary-level fiscal impact analysis.
Fiscal Impact Analysis Framework
A fiscal impact analysis estimates incremental tax and other operating revenues generated by new development as compared to the estimated costs of public services required to serve new development. The analysis only focuses on fiscal impacts to the City (specifically to the City’s General Fund) and does not consider any other governmental agencies who may provide enterprise or other services to the project, such as sewer conveyance for example. In addition, a fiscal impact analysis does not address activities budgeted in other Governmental Funds or Enterprise Funds (e.g., Water Fund, Sewer Fund, Storm Sewer Fund), nor does it include ongoing operations and maintenance
1 City of Sacramento Community Development Department; “Notice of Preparation of Environmental Impact Report and Scoping Meeting for the Airport South Industrial Project (P21-017); March 4, 2022. 2 The net developable acreage includes developable land, not including public facilities and internal roads.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
proposed to be funded through private sources, such as a Maintenance or Homeowners Association.
Estimated Fiscal Impacts on the City
Estimated General Fund Revenues
The chart below illustrates estimated annual City General Fund revenues of $3.4 million that may be generated at buildout by new Project development. As illustrated, property taxes and property taxes in lieu of vehicle license taxes represent approximately 81 percent of the estimated annual revenues.
These revenue estimates require discussion regarding two key assumptions. The first is that the property tax revenue estimates assume the City receives a property tax share equal to other areas within the City. As described above, this property tax split assumption is subject to change once the tax-sharing agreement is executed. Second, at this stage of the entitlement process, it is difficult to identify end-users who may occupy the nonresidential buildings. Thus, the estimated sales tax revenues do not anticipate the potential for a large “e commerce” user to occupy one or more of the Project’s nonresidential buildings. Should one or more “e commerce” users, who would generate significant point of sale sales tax revenues to the City, occupy the project, estimated sales tax revenues could be at much as 5-to-10 times greater than estimated in this analysis.
Estimated General Fund Expenditures
Project-related annual general fund expenditures have been estimated using the estimated new service population anticipated from the Project (i.e., new employees/new
Airport South Industrial Project Fiscal Impacts Summary; EPS #222006
persons-served) and the average City cost per-person-served3 as estimated in a recent fiscal impact analysis prepared for the City. The average City cost of $509 per-person- served is based on information from the City’s annual General Fund budget from fiscal year 2024-25. The Project’s persons-served estimate multiplied by the average cost per- person-served results in an annual cost estimate of $0.8 million.
Estimated Net Fiscal Impacts
The figure below compares estimated annual revenues with estimated annual expenditures anticipated from the Project. Assuming full Project buildout and a City property tax split like other areas within the City, the Project is estimated to generate annual fiscal surpluses of approximately $2.6 million to the City.
3 This amount excludes costs estimated on a per capita basis, such as “Convention and Cultural Services,” Youth, Parks, and Community Enrichment Services,” and “Community Response Services.”