Rancho Cucamonga City Council
June 3, 2026

Beyond HUD’s classifications, Rancho Cucamonga, like most cities, also faces the challenge of hidden homelessness. This refers to individuals and families who lack a stable place to live but are not visibly homeless or counted in official data. Instead, they may be:
• Couch surfing with friends or extended family for prolonged periods • Doubling or tripling up in overcrowded units
• Living temporarily in garages, motels, or other unstable arrangements Because these individuals are not accessing formal homeless services, they often fall outside of HUD’s narrow definitions and are excluded from most federal funding streams. Yet their housing insecurity is real and growing.

This hidden homelessness is especially prevalent among youth and families — groups who are often underrepresented in official homeless counts. While many individuals experiencing housing instability go uncounted in traditional homelessness metrics, public schools play a crucial role in identifying and supporting children and families living in unstable conditions.

McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act
The federal McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act expands the definition of homelessness beyond HUD’s narrower categories and ensures educational protections for students experiencing housing instability.

Under this law, children and youth who lack a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence—including those doubling up with others, living in motels, or staying temporarily in cars or shelters—are entitled to specific educational protections and services.

Rancho Cucamonga is served by several school districts, including Cucamonga, Etiwanda, Alta Loma, Central, and Chaffey Joint Union High School District. Each district is required to report annually the number of McKinney-Vento-eligible students. In the 2023-2024 school year, 2,875 students were identified as homeless under McKinney-Vento.

ALTA LOMA SD
104
1175
123
1195
104
149
1200
152
1267
152

ETIWANDA SD

CUCAMONGA SD

CHAFFEY JOINT

UNION HIGH SD

CENTRAL SD
Common challenges faced
by these students include:
• Instability and absenteeism
from frequent moves between
motels, doubled-up arrangements,
or shelters.
• Transportation difficulties,
food insecurity, mental health
challenges, and academic
performance impacts.
• Stigma and social isolation
that interfere with learning
and development.

In addition, “unaccompanied youth”—defined in 42 U.S.C. § 11434a(6)—refers to homeless children and youth who are not in the physical custody of a parent or guardian. These youth face unique vulnerabilities, often disconnected from services, at risk of exploitation, and may not be accessing shelter or formal housing programs.

Homeless Student Enrollment

RANCHO CUCAMONGA
2022-2023 2023-2024
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The City has taken proactive steps
to support these students and their
families through strong relationships with
school-based personnel and community
organizations. In the Cucamonga School
District, the evidence- based Community
Schools strategy embeds resources directly
into the school environment. Through
collaboration with school administration and
parent liaisons, the City and its partners help
connect families to housing assistance, food
security programs, mental health services,
and other stabilization resources.

These efforts are further enhanced through
partnerships with the San Bernardino County
Department of Behavioral Health and the
Transitional Age Youth (TAY) Center, which serves
young people ages 16 to 25 who may be at risk of
homelessness or struggling with mental health needs.

These partnerships provide early access to behavioral
health care, case management, and supportive services—helping prevent deeper housing crises among vulnerable youth and families.

Expanding the Community Schools strategy and enhancing coordination with schools across all Rancho Cucamonga districts presents a significant opportunity to identify struggling families sooner and offer upstream interventions before homelessness occurs. Schools remain one of the most visible and trusted systems in a young person’s life, making them a cornerstone of effective prevention.

Homelessness Risks Among Chaffey College Students
Beyond K–12 students, young adults attending post-secondary institutions also experience significant housing, food, and mental health challenges that place them at risk of homelessness, as reflected in recent surveys conducted at Chaffey College. Although Chaffey College serves a regional student population, the housing and basic needs challenges its students face have direct and indirect impacts on Rancho Cucamonga, making these findings relevant to local homelessness prevention efforts. 9 DRAFT

Chaffey College conducted two surveys in 2023 to identify student basic needs insecurities, including housing, food, and mental health challenges. The findings highlight substantial vulnerabilities that contribute to housing instability and risk of homelessness:
• Food insecurity (past month): Up to 54% of students worried food would run out; 55% reported cutting meal sizes or skipping meals; 31% reported not eating for a full day. • Housing insecurity (past year): Up to 59% experienced housing insecurity, including unaffordable rent or mortgage increases (40%), un(der)paid rent/mortgage (28%), un(der)paid utilities (30%), or default/collections (19%). • Homelessness (past year): Up to 23% of students reported experiencing homelessness. • Mental health challenges (past year): Up to 45% reported anxiety or depression, with 26% reporting unmet mental health needs.

These results demonstrate that a substantial portion of Chaffey College students face conditions that contribute to housing instability and risk of homelessness. In response, Chaffey’s Panther Care Program provides students with direct support, including food and hygiene items, counseling, and connections to housing and other supportive services—helping address some of the immediate needs identified through the surveys. The City maintains ongoing coordination with Chaffey College to strengthen connections between campus-based resources and the broader local service delivery system, supporting efforts to address student homelessness as part of a comprehensive community response.

These local efforts reflect and connect to broader state policy efforts to address student homelessness.

For example, Assembly Bill 90 sought to require community college districts to establish overnight parking programs for students experiencing homelessness and living in their vehicles. Although the bill did not ultimately pass, its introduction reflects the scale of the issue statewide and the need for coordinated local and state solutions to support vulnerable student populations. 10 DRAFT

Regional Systems
and Data Framework
While educational and survey data shed light on who is at risk of or experiencing homelessness, understanding how homelessness is addressed on a systems level is equally critical. Rancho Cucamonga operates within a larger countywide framework that governs funding, coordination, and data collection. This framework, led by the San Bernardino County Continuum of Care (CoC), informs how regional partners respond to homelessness and provides the primary data sources that guide local planning.

San Bernardino County Continuum of Care
Rancho Cucamonga is part of the San Bernardino County CoC, the regional planning body that coordinates housing and supportive services for individuals and families experiencing homelessness across the county. The CoC is responsible for oversight of federal HUD funding, program evaluation, systems alignment, and convening stakeholders from government, non-profit, and community-based sectors. The CoC oversees a community’s plan to organize and deliver supportive services and housing options to meet the needs of people experiencing homelessness, with the ultimate goal of promoting stable housing and self- sufficiency. Membership in the San Bernardino County CoC is open to all stakeholders providing services to unhoused populations in San Bernardino County.

Rancho Cucamonga is an active participant in this regional network and plays a leadership role in several key initiatives, engaging in collaborative planning and participation in regional working groups focused on outreach, housing, and system coordination. City staff serve on the CoC Board as an at-large member, and as a co-chair of the West Valley Regional Steering Committee which brings together neighboring cities and local service providers to improve coordination, align strategies, and advocate for resources on a regional level. Additionally, Rancho Cucamonga staff serve on several CoC subcommittees, including as Chair of the countywide PITC Oversight Committee and Vice Chair of the Grant Review Committee, and provide leadership on other regional initiatives, including the West Valley Regional Collaborative on Community Care and Housing Solutions for Aging Adults. This involvement ensures that Rancho Cucamonga’s priorities are represented in regional decision-making and that the City remains aligned with countywide initiatives and funding opportunities.

Through the CoC, jurisdictions, service providers, housing authorities, law enforcement agencies, healthcare systems, and community organizations work together to implement a coordinated response to homelessness. This includes operating the Coordinated Entry System (CES), managing shared data systems, and conducting annual counts required by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
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Key Data Sources
To effectively guide homelessness
response strategies, the City relies on
multiple data sources to understand
local needs, track trends, and inform
action. The Point-in-Time Count (PITC),
the Homeless Management Information
System (HMIS), and 2-1-1 call data
each provide critical insights into who
is experiencing homelessness, what
services they are accessing, and where
gaps in the system may exist.

Point-in-Time Count (PITC)
HUD requires local CoCs to conduct a
Point-In-Time Count of individuals experiencing
homelessness in order to continue receiving federal
funding for homeless services. This count must take place during the last 10 days of January and includes both sheltered and unsheltered populations. While HUD mandates a sheltered count annually and an unsheltered count every other year, the San Bernardino County CoC conducts both sheltered and unsheltered counts each year, consistent with most of California’s CoCs.

According to HUD’s definition, individuals are counted as homeless only if they are:
• Sleeping in places not meant for human habitation (e.g., cars, parks, sidewalks, abandoned buildings);
• Staying in an emergency shelter; or
• Living in transitional housing designated for homeless persons.

Under HUD guidelines, individuals in the following circumstances are excluded from the PIT Count:
• Residing in medical facilities (e.g., hospitals, psychiatric centers, nursing homes); • In jails, prisons, or juvenile detention;
• In substance use treatment or detox facilities;
• Living in foster care homes or group homes.

Additionally, children identified by McKinney-Vento liaisons at schools are not counted unless they are staying in an emergency shelter, transitional housing, or are unsheltered on the night of the count. HUD also excludes people who are “doubled up” (staying temporarily with others) or considered at risk of homelessness.

Each person counted during the PITC also participates in a voluntary survey, collecting both HUD-required and locally relevant data. Required subpopulation data includes:
• Adults with HIV/AIDS, serious mental illness, and substance use disorders; • Families and chronically homeless families/individuals; • Veterans; and
• Youth ages 18–24.

HUD also allows optional reporting on sheltered and unsheltered adult survivors of domestic violence. 12 DRAFT

To support service planning, the San Bernardino CoC also asks additional locally tailored questions, including:
• Whether homelessness began in the last 12 months;
• Whether the individual has a life-threatening chronic health condition; • History of incarceration or foster care;
• Monthly income level;
• City/community of first homelessness experience;
• State of birth;
• Location slept the previous night;
• Willingness to provide contact information (phone/email) for service follow-up.

While the PITC provides important data to inform service planning, it is important to recognize that the count offers only a snapshot in time. Like other cities, Rancho Cucamonga faces challenges in capturing the full extent of unsheltered homelessness. Many individuals may not be counted during the PITC due to various factors, including difficulty accessing hard-to-reach encampments, inclement weather, or the transitory nature of certain populations.

For example, Rancho Cucamonga is home to the West Valley Detention Center, one of the largest county jails in the State of California, serving multiple jurisdictions across the region. Individuals released from the facility may remain in Rancho Cucamonga temporarily or longer, even if they are not originally from the city. Similar patterns occur for those discharged from hospitals, behavioral health facilities, or other county programs without stable housing plans. These dynamics underscore the importance of interpreting PITC data within the context of both local residents and transitory individuals, highlighting the need for regional coordination to fully understand homelessness trends. Despite these challenges, PITC data provides important insights into population demographics and trends over time.

In recent years, Rancho Cucamonga has seen a steady increase in the number of unsheltered adults identified through the annual PITC. The 2025 PITC identified 120 individuals experiencing homelessness in Rancho Cucamonga—113 unsheltered and 7 sheltered.

In 2023, 70 individuals were identified, followed by 83 in 2024, and rising to 120 in 2025. This marks a 61% increase since 2023. While Rancho Cucamonga’s overall homelessness count remains lower than in many neighboring jurisdictions, the upward trend is significant and highlights the need for a coordinated and sustained response.
2025 Point in Time Count

RANCHO CUCAMONGA
Total Number of Sheltered and Unsheltered Persons
Source: San Bernardino County 2025 Continuum of Care Homeless Count & Survey Report 2025 PITC Summary
The 2025 PITC showed a notable decrease in
homelessness across San Bernardino County:
• 2,620 unsheltered individuals,
down 14.2% (435 fewer than 2024);
• 1,201 sheltered individuals;
• Total homeless population: 3,821,
reflecting a 10.2% overall decrease.

This marks the first reduction for San Bernardino
County after several years of rising homelessness,
which had doubled between 2018 and 2024.
2022
2023
2024
2025
47 70
85 120
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The data indicates that although the city has
historically maintained a relatively low rate of
homelessness, local conditions are shifting. This
aligns with regional and statewide trends influenced
by factors such as rising housing costs, limited
availability of affordable units, increased economic
hardship for vulnerable populations, and discharge
from hospitals, jails, and behavioral health institutions without clear housing pathways.

Continued collaboration across sectors will be
essential to ensure that Rancho Cucamonga is
positioned to meet rising demand with a balanced
approach that includes prevention, crisis response,
and long-term housing stability strategies.

Demographic Shifts
and Observations
Across all three years, the majority of individuals
experiencing homelessness identified as male,
ranging from 71.4% in 2023 to 81.2% in 2025. The
proportion of women has fluctuated slightly but
remained significantly lower, consistently below 30%.

The age distribution has remained relatively
consistent, with individuals between ages 25 and
64 making up the majority. Notably, in 2025, the
largest age group was 35–44 (31.3%), suggesting a
concentration of homelessness among working-age
adults. Age data from the 2025 PITC reveals that older
adults make up a growing share of the city’s unhoused
population. Specifically, 21.9% of unsheltered
individuals were aged 55–64, and 7.8% were over the
age of 65. Combined, nearly 30% of those surveyed
were seniors— many of whom are likely living on
limited or fixed incomes. This rise in older adult
homelessness is concerning, particularly given the
affordability challenges in Rancho Cucamonga and
the vulnerability of seniors to health issues, isolation, and financial exploitation.

Racial and ethnic disparities continue to persist. White individuals made up 40.6% of the 2025 unsheltered
population, followed by Hispanic/Latino individuals
(26.6%) and Black/African American individuals
(20.3%). These proportions reflect ongoing structural
inequities and the need for culturally responsive
outreach and service strategies. Although Hispanic/
Latino representation declined from 50% in 2023
to 26.6% in 2025, further analysis is necessary to
determine the contributing factors toward this shift.
2025 Point in Time Count Rancho Cucamonga GENDER
AGE

SUBPOPULATIONS
RACE

18.8%
FEMALE

81.2%
MALE
18-24 4.7%

18.8%

15.6%

21.9%

7.8%

31.5%
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

4.7%

MULTIPLE
RACES

1.6%

MIDDLE EASTERN

OR NORTH AFRICAN

40.6%
WHITE

20.3%

BLACK, AFRICAN

AMERICAN, OR

AFRICAN

26.6%

HISPANIC/LATINA/
E/O
Source: San Bernardino County 2025 Continuum of Care
Homeless Count & Survey Report

TOTAL NUMBER OF
UNSHELTERED PERSONS 55+
in Rancho Cucamonga
2025
2024
2023
2022*
2020
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The percentage of individuals experiencing homelessness for the first time declined from 40.5% in 2023 to 28.1% in 2025, which may indicate an increase in long-term or recurring homelessness. This is supported by the rise
in individuals classified as chronically homeless—from

28.6% in 2023 to 39.1% in 2025. This trend has significant implications for service delivery, as chronically homeless individuals often require more intensive and sustained
support, including housing with wraparound services.

The 2025 count revealed complex health and behavioral
health needs among Rancho Cucamonga’s unhoused
residents. Nearly one in four individuals (25%) reported a physical disability that limits independent living—up from 14.3% in 2023—while 17.2% reported a chronic,
life-threatening health condition such as heart, lung,
or kidney disease. Additionally, 17.2% of respondents
identified a serious mental health condition, 15.6%
reported a substance use disorder, and roughly one-
quarter had been incarcerated within the past year. These findings are based on self-reported information and may underrepresent certain conditions, but they highlight
the intersection between homelessness, health, and
the criminal justice system, and emphasize the need for integrated care that addresses co-occurring conditions.

Economic insecurity remains a defining characteristic
of the population. Across all three years, over half of individuals reported no monthly income. In 2025, 56.3%
had no income, and only 14.1% earned more than $1,000
per month. These figures highlight the critical need for accessible job training, employment pathways, and
income stabilization programs tailored to individuals
with complex barriers. While the majority of individuals surveyed reported little to no income, the PITC also
identified a subset of individuals who were employed
or had some level of income but still experienced
homelessness. This reflects a growing reality across
the state - even individuals with jobs may be unable to afford stable housing due to rising rents, limited housing availability, and the high cost of living. Highlighting this complexity is important for breaking down
misconceptions about who experiences homelessness
and for shaping strategies that address both extreme
poverty and the growing number of “working unhoused”
residents.

The percentage of individuals who reported being victims of domestic violence increased significantly in 2025 to

10.9%, up from 0% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2023. The number
of veterans also grew slightly, indicating a continuing need for veteran-specific services.
2025 Point in Time Count Rancho Cucamonga GENDER
AGE

SUBPOPULATIONS
% OF RESPONDENTS

REPORTING A CONDITION

31.5%
* Note: The San Bernardino County in Time Count report for 2022 did not breakdown City of Rancho Cucamonga findings due to the fact that total Unsheltered Adults comprised of 47. The report showcased findings for jurisdictions in which at least 50 adults were counted as unsheltered.

TOTAL NUMBER OF
UNSHELTERED PERSONS 55+
in Rancho Cucamonga
2025
2024
2023
2022*
2020
19 12
12 8

4.7%
Veterans

39.1%
Chronically
Homeless

4.7%
Mental Illness

1.6%
HIV
25%
Physical Disability

15.6%
Substance Abuse
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Homeless Management Information
System (HMIS)
HMIS is a secure, HUD-required database used
by service providers across the CoC to track
real-time client-level information on individuals
accessing homeless services. Unlike the PITC,
which offers a one-night snapshot, HMIS tracks
ongoing service use and outcomes across the
county—providing a more dynamic view of shelter
entry and exits, permanent housing placements,
length of homelessness episodes, and recidivism
or returns to homelessness.

Accurate, consistent data is essential for understanding local homelessness trends, improving coordination, and measuring outcomes. While HMIS tracks real-time, client-level data on individuals accessing homeless services across the CoC, the County’s current reporting is primarily reported by region rather than by individual city. This is largely due to inconsistencies in how service providers record location data. The County is actively working to improve data quality by encouraging providers to consistently input city-level information and demonstrating the benefits of more precise reporting during provider trainings.

To strengthen data-informed decision-making, the City should work toward:
• Gaining direct access to the HMIS. Becoming an HMIS user would allow City staff to enter client-level data—particularly for residents who contact the City directly for assistance—and access real-time information about service utilization, housing placements, and outcomes. • The City should also consider requiring CDBG-funded agencies to participate in HMIS to ensure consistent data entry and outcome tracking across funded programs. This would significantly improve the City’s ability to track trends, identify gaps, and inform future program design and investment.

City staff currently serve on a newly formed HMIS committee, which presents an important opportunity to shape data governance policies and ensure that the unique needs of cities are represented in future system improvements.

Inland SoCal United Way
2-1-1 Call Data
2-1-1 San Bernardino County serves as a critical
access point for individuals and families seeking
health, housing, and social services across the
region. Local call data from Rancho Cucamonga
provides important insights into the needs of
residents, highlighting both service gaps and
key populations experiencing housing instability.

In FY 2024-2025, 2,337 calls
for services were made from
Rancho Cucamonga residents.
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JULY
AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER
225
202
192
219
182
164
Total Calls for 211 Service

RANCHO CUCAMONGA
2024 2025
Date Range 7/1/2024 - 6/30/2025

JANUARY

FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
228
172
188
184
192
189
Source: Inland Southern California United Way
A majority of callers—51%—reported monthly incomes between $0 and $900, with an additional 33% reporting being unemployed. These figures suggest that many of the individuals reaching out for support likely qualify as extremely low-income under federal guidelines, placing them at elevated risk for housing instability or homelessness.

The age distribution of callers reveals additional
areas of vulnerability:
• 10% of callers were ages 18–25,
a population known to be at higher risk
of hidden homelessness and housing
instability due to limited income and limited
support systems.
• 52% were 26–49 years old, representing
the city’s working-age adults often
supporting dependents.
• 23% were ages 50–64, and 14% were
65 and older, indicating that over
one-third of callers were older adults,
many of whom may be living on fixed
incomes and facing compounding
health and housing challenges.

This mirrors data from the City’s Point-in-Time
Count, where a growing number of seniors are
found living in their vehicles or avoiding shelters.

It also reinforces the need for senior-specific
homelessness prevention strategies.

The racial and ethnic makeup of 2-1-1 callers reveals important disparities in who is seeking assistance in Rancho Cucamonga. Over 36% of callers identified as African American, far exceeding their representation in Rancho Cucamonga’s general population (approximately 8%). Meanwhile, over 35% of callers were Hispanic or Latinx, which is lower than the citywide Hispanic/Latinx population of 54%. Only 13% of callers identified as White, despite making up 27% of the city’s population. These differences suggest that African American residents are significantly overrepresented among those experiencing economic and housing insecurity. This overrepresentation mirrors patterns seen in both the Point-in-Time Count and other regional homelessness data, emphasizing the need for culturally responsive outreach, equity-driven resource allocation, and more intentional strategies to address the root causes of housing instability among communities of color.

Service Needs
Based on the 2-1-1 data, the top service requests among Rancho Cucamonga callers were:

Service Category Referrals % of Total
Housing 2,452 36.65
Food/Meals 1,136 16.98
Utility Assistance 924 13.81
Individual/Family/Community Support 371 5.55
Legal/Public Safety Services 319 4.77
Clothing/Personal/Household Needs 275 4.11
Mental Health/Substance Use Disorders 235 3.51
Income Support/Assistance 192 2.87
Health Care 187 2.80
Employment Assistance 180 2.69
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Over one-third of all referrals were for housing, reinforcing the role of housing affordability and stability as the central driver of resource need in the city. Food and utility assistance followed closely behind, suggesting that many residents are struggling to meet their most basic needs, and are likely experiencing cost burdens across multiple categories (housing, food, and energy).

Other frequent needs—mental health care, employment services, and income supports—suggest a broader system of instability, with callers juggling complex and intersecting challenges that often overlap with homelessness risk.

The 2-1-1 data provides critical insights for Rancho Cucamonga as it develops a more integrated and strategic response to homelessness and housing instability. It highlights both the urgency and complexity of community needs, particularly for low-income households with unstable employment, older adults on fixed incomes, and African American residents who are disproportionately represented among callers. It also underscores how housing insecurity is often accompanied by related needs such as food, utility assistance, and mental health services.

Going forward, the City can use 2-1-1 data to strengthen real-time monitoring of community needs, inform funding priorities, and guide outreach efforts toward populations most at risk. Establishing regular data-sharing with 2-1-1 San Bernardino would support more responsive
programming, while closer coordination with service
providers—especially those offering rent, food, and
utility assistance—can help address intersecting needs
before they escalate into homelessness. Integrating
2-1-1 into the City’s prevention messaging and resource navigation efforts will also ensure that residents know how to access available supports early, increasing the
effectiveness of the overall homelessness prevention system. 18 DRAFT

Community Risk Factors for Homelessness
Understanding the broader economic and housing conditions within the community is essential to identifying households at heightened risk of homelessness. Poverty rates, housing cost burdens, unemployment, and youth disconnection all contribute to housing instability and can serve as early indicators of future homelessness. The following data highlight key community risk factors that shape the local landscape, emphasizing the importance of targeted prevention strategies.

According to the 2023 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey:
• Rancho Cucamonga had an estimated 9.4%
of households at or below the poverty level.
• Rancho Cucamonga had an estimated 57.4%
of households experiencing high rent burden
(Percentage of households where ≥30% of income
is spent on rent) in 2023, with some census tracts
of the city estimated at 100%.
• Rancho Cucamonga had an estimated 10.1% of children
in poverty in 2023 (children younger than age 18 who
live in households below the federal poverty level),
with some census tracts of the city as high as 36.7%.
• Rancho Cucamonga had an estimated 5.8% of its labor
force who were unemployed in 2023, with some census
tracts of the city over 10%.
• Rancho Cucamonga had an estimated 6.1% of youth
16-19 years who were neither working nor in school,
also known as “disconnected youth,” in 2023, with
some census tracts of the city over 25%.

These individuals face growing pressures such as rising rents, job loss, and health care costs, all of which can contribute to future housing instability and homelessness.

The data and risk factors highlighted above underscore that homelessness in Rancho Cucamonga is shaped by both individual circumstances and broader structural forces. Chief among these is the availability and affordability of housing. Like many communities across California, Rancho Cucamonga faces significant housing cost pressures that limit options for lower-income households and place vulnerable residents at greater risk of homelessness. Understanding the city’s housing landscape is therefore essential to developing effective strategies for prevention, stabilization, and long-term solutions.
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1 8
9 45
6 2 11
3 10
7 13
14 15
12 Affordable Housing

RANCHO CUCAMONGA
Affordable Housing
& Homelessness Prevention
Rancho Cucamonga has made significant investments in affordable housing, recognizing its central role in stabilizing households and preventing homelessness. Despite these efforts, the demand for affordable housing continues to outpace supply. Rising rents, limited availability of deeply affordable units, and long waitlists create housing instability for low-wage workers, fixed-income seniors, and other vulnerable residents. These challenges are amplified by regional affordability trends and a growing older adult population aging in place. Expanding and preserving affordable housing is therefore essential to reducing homelessness inflow and supporting long-term stability for residents across income levels and life stages.

Multi-Family Affordable Housing
Rancho Cucamonga has several affordable
rental housing developments that serve very
low-, low-, and moderate-income individuals
and families, including:

Evergreen Apartments (79 affordable units)
La Casitas Apartments (14 affordable units)
Monterey Village Apartments (110 affordable units)
Mountainside Apartments (118 affordable units)
Pepperwood Apartments (228 affordable units)
Rancho Verde Village (104 affordable units)
San Sevaine Villas (223 affordable units)
Sunset Heights Apartments (116 affordable units)
Sycamore Spring Apartments (26 affordable units)
Vilaggio on Route 66 (131 affordable units)
Villa Del Norte Apartments (87 affordable units)
Senior Affordable Housing
Older adults represent a growing share of
Rancho Cucamonga’s population and face unique
housing challenges. Many rely on fixed retirement
incomes that do not keep pace with escalating
housing costs, leaving them vulnerable to housing
instability. Seniors are often one crisis—such as a
rent increase, health issue, or loss of support—away
from homelessness.

Day Creek Villas (139 affordable units)
Heritage Pointe Apartments (48 affordable units)
Olen Jones Apartment Community (96 affordable units)
Villa Pacifica Apartments (59 affordable units)
The City has several senior-designated
affordable communities, including:

These developments offer below-market rents and may include income restrictions, supportive services, or access to housing vouchers. However, demand is extremely high and availability remains limited, resulting in long waitlists and limited availability for residents in urgent need. Increasing the supply of and access to these units—particularly for extremely low-income households—will be an important homelessness prevention strategy moving forward.

Future development efforts could further integrate affordability requirements and explore innovative tools such as adaptive reuse, community land trusts, and incentive-based zoning.

Housing for Individuals and Families Housing for Seniors 1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 20
DRAFT

These developments provide
stable, age-friendly environments
with accessibility features and
proximity to healthcare and
community services. However,
demand far exceeds supply, and
many older adults rely solely on
Social Security or SSI, which often
falls below the income thresholds
required to secure new units. Recent
PITC data and anecdotal reports from
service providers confirm a growing
number of unhoused seniors living in vehicles
throughout the city. Many wish to remain in
Rancho Cucamonga due to longstanding connections to neighbors, medical providers, and community networks.

Many decline referrals to shelters outside of the city due to distance, lack of pet accommodations, or a desire to stay connected to their home community.

Strengthening housing stability for this population will require continued investment in senior-designated affordable units, partnerships that support aging in place, and proactive outreach to seniors living in unstable settings. At least one of Rancho Cucamonga’s senior affordable housing developments has affordability covenants that will expire in 2027, which could reduce the availability of long-term affordable units. Preserving these homes is critical to preventing displacement and maintaining the City’s affordable housing stock. The City should proactively monitor upcoming covenant expirations for all affordable housing developments and work with property owners and housing partners to extend affordability where feasible.

Mobile Home Park Accord and Rental Assistance
Mobile home parks provide some of Rancho Cucamonga’s most important naturally occurring affordable housing, especially for seniors on fixed incomes and low- to moderate-income families. In 1985, the City Council established the Mobile Home Park Accord, a set of agreements with private park owners to regulate aspects of the landlord–tenant relationship, maintain habitability standards, and rent increases. The City Council renewed the Accord for an additional 10 years on February 4, 2026, reaffirming the City’s ongoing commitment to preserving affordable housing and supporting long-term residents aging in place.

The Accord includes a Mobile Home Rental Assistance Program, which provides eligible households with up to $100 per month toward space rent. Although closed to new enrollees since 2012, 15 households remain active in the program, many of whom are seniors who rely on this modest subsidy to stay housed and independent. The continued existence of this program reflects the City’s longstanding commitment to preserving affordability for those aging in place. Place-based strategies that preserve local housing options and support aging residents will be critical as the city works to address growing housing instability among long-term community members.

Regional Housing Partnerships
To complement the City’s local housing strategies, Rancho Cucamonga is also participating in broader regional efforts to expand affordable housing. The San Bernardino Regional Housing Trust (SBRHT), led by the San Bernardino Council of Governments (SBCOG), is being established to help cities and the County pool resources, attract new funding, and support the development and preservation of affordable housing.

By joining the Trust, the City will be better positioned to leverage regional and state resources to advance its own housing priorities—such as developing new affordable units, preserving existing housing, and supporting projects that address homelessness. Participation in the Trust aligns with Rancho Cucamonga’s broader strategy to expand housing options across income levels and reduce inflow into homelessness.

The Trust reflects a coordinated regional approach to addressing shared housing challenges and provides a new tool for cities to support local affordable housing and homelessness prevention goals. 21 DRAFT

Addressing homelessness effectively requires
more than housing alone—it also depends on a
strong network of prevention, crisis response,
and stabilization programs. The City leverages
a combination of local programs, strategic
partnerships, and targeted funding to stabilize
households, prevent homelessness, and create
pathways to long-term housing.

Community Development Block Grant
• Each year, the City allocates a portion of its federal Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds to
nonprofit organizations that deliver critical homelessness prevention, crisis response, and housing stabilization services. These programs act as critical lifelines for residents at risk of losing their housing or experiencing a housing crisis. In recent years, CDBG funds have supported a range of services, including transitional housing for families experiencing homelessness, emergency food distribution, short-term rental assistance and motel vouchers for households in crisis, domestic violence prevention and housing support for survivors, and rapid rehousing and diversion services for low- to moderate-income residents.

Collectively, these investments help stabilize vulnerable households, provide immediate relief during emergencies, and create pathways to permanent housing.
• While these programs offer meaningful impact, several themes have emerged through program implementation and stakeholder feedback. The scale of funding is limited, which naturally constrains how many residents each program can serve. There is some overlap between service providers—particularly in areas like food distribution and short-term shelter—that, without strong coordination, can lead to duplication rather than strategic complementarity. Certain populations, such as seniors, youth, and vehicle dwellers, remain underserved, and current efforts lean more toward immediate crisis response than long- term stabilization. Additionally, outcome data is often limited, making it challenging to fully understand the long-term impact of these investments.
• To strengthen the impact of CDBG investments, opportunities may exist to further enhance strategic and data-informed approaches to program funding and coordination. Potential considerations could include focusing resources for deeper impact rather than spreading funds thinly across multiple providers, prioritizing prevention services such as rental assistance, strengthening data collection and outcome measurement efforts, including use of HMIS where appropriate, and aligning local programs with forthcoming regional initiatives such as the West End Regional Navigation Center. Additional opportunities may also exist to strengthen coordination among service providers, faith-based organizations, and City teams to support a more seamless and effective service network.

Specialized Outreach Teams
The City partners with several field-based and multidisciplinary teams that proactively connect individuals experiencing homelessness with services and housing resources. The Rancho Cucamonga Police Department’s Solutions Oriented Policing (SOP) Team proactively engages unhoused individuals to connect them with housing and emergency services. Additionally, the City recently launched the Community Outreach and Support Team (COAST), a multidisciplinary crisis response team that includes a San Bernardino County behavioral health professional, a Sheriff’s deputy, a City firefighter paramedic, and a therapy canine. COAST provides specialized support for individuals with mental health challenges.

The Sheriff’s Homeless Outreach and Proactive Enforcement (HOPE) Team and InnROADS (Innovative Remote Onsite Assistance Delivery) program serve residents across San Bernardino County. HOPE uses a community policing approach to link those at risk or currently experiencing homelessness with countywide resources, while Programs & Services
DRAFT
22

InnROADS provides collaborative, field-based support in partnership with the Departments of Behavioral Health, Public Health, Aging and Adult Services, and the Sheriff’s Department. These teams work closely with service providers to offer individualized assistance, including case management, housing navigation, and connection to supportive programs.

Together, these teams work closely with service providers to deliver individualized assistance, stabilize residents, and provide pathways to long-term housing solutions, including mental health services, substance use treatment, employment support, and other critical social services.

Regional Navigation Center
The City’s specialized outreach teams play a critical role in identifying individuals in crisis and connecting them to appropriate services. As part of this coordinated system, the City will participate in the forthcoming West End Regional Navigation Center (“Center”), providing outreach teams
with a critical new resource to help stabilize individuals and connect them to housing and care.

The Center is located in Fontana at 11109 Jasmine Street, and is anticipated to begin serving the community in early 2027. The Center will operate as a central hub for shelter and supportive services, and will serve participating cities across the West Valley. The Center will provide a total of 200 beds—100 for emergency shelter and 100 for recuperative care— and will function as a referral-only facility, ensuring that individuals are connected through approved channels such as participating jurisdictions, law enforcement, or healthcare providers.

The Center will provide a comprehensive range of services, including:
• Emergency Shelter: Low-barrier accommodations with meals, hygiene and laundry facilities, intensive case management, behavioral health services, housing navigation, benefits enrollment, and transportation assistance. There will also be accommodations for pets. • Recuperative Care: Temporary residential accommodations, basic medical oversight, and case management for individuals discharged from hospitals who require continued medical recovery but lack stable housing. • Sobering Center: A monitored space for individuals under the influence who do not require hospitalization, providing medical monitoring, crisis intervention, referrals for substance use treatment, and coordination with law enforcement.

The Center will operate 24/7 and follow a low-barrier approach that accommodates individuals regardless of income, mental health status, or current substance use. The Center will be staffed by multidisciplinary teams that include case managers, behavioral health professionals, and County service providers. It will offer both congregate and non- congregate accommodations, allowing flexibility to meet the varying needs of individuals and families seeking shelter and stabilization. Participation in this regional initiative will strengthen the City’s ability to respond to homelessness by providing a clear and structured pathway from outreach to shelter and supportive services. In addition to the City’s participation in the Regional Navigation Center, the City has also committed funding to support transportation from the West Valley Detention Center to the Navigation Center to help improve connections to shelter and supportive services for individuals exiting the facility. Transportation from other key locations to the Navigation Center should also be prioritized, along with strategies to support family reunification and transportation vouchers for individuals exiting the facility. Pathways to permanent housing for residents exiting the Center should also be prioritized, including permanent supportive housing for individuals with chronic health or behavioral health needs and rapid rehousing programs that provide short-term rental subsidies, including first and last month’s rent, coupled with case management to stabilize households in permanent housing. The City will explore available federal, state, and regional funding opportunities—such as CDBG, HOME, HHAP, PLHA, and Opioid Settlements—to support its participation in the Center and help residents transition successfully to permanent housing.

DRAFT 21

Encampment Response
and Community Engagement
Effectively addressing encampments requires a coordinated approach that integrates clear policies, community reporting, interdepartmental and external collaboration, and proactive public engagement. Over the past year, the City has strengthened its encampment response framework by refining its reporting systems, formalizing internal coordination, advancing policy tools, and launching new community education initiatives.

Policy Framework
Addressing homelessness in Rancho Cucamonga requires balancing public safety, accessibility of shared spaces, and the fair treatment of individuals experiencing homelessness. In response to resident and business concerns about camping, encampments, and storage of personal property in public spaces, the City adopted an ordinance amending the Municipal Code (Chapter 9.38) to establish clear rules on the use of public property.

The ordinance prohibits unattended personal property on public property, setting up tents, lodging in restrooms, sleeping or sitting on benches, bus stops, or adjacent landscape areas, and using public fountains or sinks for personal hygiene beyond basic handwashing. It also restricts remaining in public plazas between 10:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m., while allowing uninterrupted traversal. These regulations align with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in City of Grants Pass v. Johnson (2024), which affirmed that enforcement of generally applicable public camping regulations does not constitute cruel and unusual punishment, as well as Governor Newsom’s 2024 Executive Order providing guidance to local jurisdictions.

The ordinance complements ongoing City efforts to support people experiencing homelessness, including outreach by the Solutions-Oriented Policing (SOP) Team and crisis support via the Community Outreach and Support Team (C.O.A.S.T); a new mobile crisis response team.. By clarifying public use rules, the ordinance helps maintain safe, accessible spaces while reinforcing the City’s broader commitment to compassionate, coordinated homelessness response.

The City is also developing a comprehensive personal property storage policy to guide the handling of belongings left in encampments, parks, or other locations. The policy will establish clear procedures for documenting, collecting, storing, and returning property—including abandoned or unattended items—to ensure practices are consistent, legally defensible, and respectful of individuals’ rights.

Community
Reporting
through RC2GO
RC2GO, the City’s
mobile and online
reporting platform,
allows residents
to easily report
encampments and
related concerns.

Reports are routed
to the appropriate
departments for
follow-up, creating
a more systematic
response and generating valuable data to track trends over time. In recent months, routing and response processes have been refined, resulting in more consistent and timely action.

DRAFT
24

The City will continue leveraging RC2GO data to identify emerging hotspots, track repeat locations, and guide proactive operations. Enhancing two-way communication—such as providing status updates on reported encampments—will also help build trust and transparency with the community.

Interdepartmental and External Coordination
The City has a dedicated multi-departmental team that convenes monthly coordination meetings focused on homelessness prevention and encampment response. These meetings bring together departments like Public Works, Community Improvement, Police, Community Services (including Park Rangers), Library, Engagement and Special Programs, and other partners to share updates, coordinate operations, and address emerging challenges.

This regular forum has improved information flow, reduced duplication of effort, and allowed teams to deploy resources more strategically across the city. To strengthen accountability and guide future resource allocation, the City will continue developing metrics to track response activity, outcomes, and associated costs—helping to quantify the operational and financial impacts of homelessness and ensure that resources are used effectively.

Many encampments are located in areas under multiple jurisdictions, such as California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) rights-of-way and County of San Bernardino flood control channels. These encampments pose serious environmental and public safety risks for both the people living in them and public infrastructure, requiring a coordinated approach to address them effectively and humanely. Coordinating cleanups in these areas can be challenging, as multiple layers of approvals are often required and timelines can be lengthy. These delays impact the City’s ability to maintain clean and safe spaces and to respond promptly to community concerns. To improve response efficiency, the City will continue to explore formal agreements and shared operational protocols, raise coordination issues in regional forums, and advocate for legislation that supports safe, timely, and effective encampment management. Legislative efforts intended to streamline cleanups and connect unhoused individuals with supportive services have been introduced, such as California Senate Bill 569 (SB 569), the California Homeless Encampment Collaboration Act, that directs Caltrans to coordinate more closely with local governments on encampment removals along state transportation corridors, including setting clear timelines for action.

Community Partnerships
In addition to formal City programs, ongoing
partnerships with community members, organizations,
and businesses play a critical role in advancing
Rancho Cucamonga’s homelessness response. These
efforts include public education campaigns, volunteer
initiatives, and collaborations that expand outreach
and support for unhoused individuals.

The City recently launched the Real Change RC
campaign to educate the public on alternatives to
panhandling. The campaign encourages community
members to make “real change” by donating to
nonprofit service providers rather than giving directly to individuals, which can inadvertently sustain street- based activity. The campaign includes a robust social
media presence, targeted signage in areas where
panhandling has been reported, and window clings for
local businesses to display. These visible reminders
aim to shift community behavior, promote coordinated
service delivery, and reinforce the City’s broader
homelessness response strategy.

DRAFT
25

Beyond targeted campaigns, broader community
initiatives further strengthen the City’s holistic
approach to homelessness. Healthy RC, a
longstanding City initiative dedicated to improving
the quality of life for all residents, places particular emphasis on supporting vulnerable populations.

The Healthy RC Steering Committee brings
together stakeholders from all sectors to coordinate
resources, share best practices, and develop policies
and systems level responses to address root causes
of homelessness and other community challenges.

The Healthy RC Steering Committee and its
various subcommittees play a key role in mobilizing
volunteers and resources to support City efforts. The
Mental Health Subcommittee created HOPE cards,
which list local resources and services, to provide to
community partners, law enforcement, and City staff for distribution to individuals in crisis situations. In addition, the Compassionate Communities Subcommittee assemble
care packages containing basic necessities and service information that can be distributed during outreach to unhoused individuals. Healthy RC volunteers also regularly participate in the annual Point-in-Time Count (PITC), contributing to critical data collection and community engagement efforts.

Local faith-based organizations further enhance these efforts by providing meals, basic supplies, and outreach support. Many regularly partner with the City and nonprofit providers to extend the reach of services, offering trusted spaces and volunteer networks that help build relationships with unhoused individuals. Together, these partnerships reflect the City’s commitment to a coordinated, community- based approach—leveraging education, compassion, and shared responsibility to address homelessness more effectively.

Together, these coordinated efforts create a stronger, more resilient network of support that enhances the well-being of vulnerable residents while informing the City’s ongoing homelessness response.

As Rancho Cucamonga’s housing and homelessness initiatives continue to grow in scale and complexity, dedicated staff capacity is essential to ensure consistent program oversight, coordination, and accountability. Currently, responsibilities are distributed across multiple departments, limiting the City’s ability to effectively sustain and expand its efforts.

Establishing a dedicated Housing and Homelessness staff position within the City’s Engagement and Special Programs Department will provide operational and analytical capacity to support resident engagement, partnerships, program administration, and funding management. This role would serve as the primary point of contact for community partners and residents, coordinate affordable housing and homelessness initiatives and strategies across departments, and enhance the City’s ability to pursue new funding and policy opportunities. Over time, this position would also strengthen alignment between City departments and regional partners, ensuring Rancho Cucamonga’s housing and homelessness response remains proactive, data-driven, and resident-centered.

To support long-term sustainability, the City will continue exploring opportunities to leverage federal, state, regional, and grant funding sources to help offset staffing and program implementation costs.

Building Organizational Capacity
DRAFT
26

1. Prevention & Early Intervention
Goal: Prevent individuals and families from becoming homeless by addressing root causes and stabilizing at-risk households.

Short-Term Actions:
• Expand housing stabilization and eviction prevention efforts, including rental assistance and financial assistance programs supported through CDBG, State, and other eligible funding sources. • Explore opportunities to enhance partnerships and expand Community Schools Program at additional schools to support McKinney-Vento youth and families.
• Increase outreach and education efforts targeting older adults at risk of homelessness. • Support workforce pathways by partnering with local employers and training programs to improve economic resilience and expand job opportunities for residents at risk of homelessness.

Long-Term Actions:
• Establish a formal, coordinated prevention network that includes landlords, service providers, and housing providers to support at-risk households.
• Develop policy tools to preserve naturally affordable housing (e.g., mobile homes, older rental stock). • Explore flexible housing stabilization funds for residents facing imminent housing loss.

2. Crisis Response & Outreach
Goal: Ensure that people experiencing homelessness can access immediate shelter, health services, and outreach that meets them where they are.

Short-Term Actions:
• Improve coordination between SOP, HOPE, InnRoads, COAST, and faith-based outreach teams. • Partner with San Bernardino County on the proposed West Valley Regional Navigation Center to provide access to shelter, case management, and housing navigation services. • Implement flexible crisis response tools, such as motel vouchers and transportation assistance, to meet immediate safety needs and support family reunification efforts.

Strategic Focus Areas
and Implementation
Strategies
Rancho Cucamonga’s Homelessness Strategy translates
vision into action through five interconnected focus
areas. Each area reflects the City’s commitment to
prevention, coordinated care, and long-term housing
stability—all essential to maintaining the high quality of life that defines the community. Building on local data, community partnerships, and regional collaboration,
these focus areas provide a practical roadmap for
reducing homelessness, strengthening systems of
care, and improving outcomes for residents across the
housing continuum.

DRAFT
28

Long-Term Actions:
• Expand access to specialized, low barrier shelter and interim housing options – such as for families with children or seniors – who may face barriers accessing the Regional Navigation Center. • Expand partnerships with local hospitals and behavioral health teams to prevent discharge into homelessness.
• Enhance street outreach capacity to identify and support people living in vehicles, parks, and encampments.

3. Housing Solutions
Goal: Increase access to affordable and supportive housing to help residents maintain housing stability and support individuals and families exiting homelessness.

Short-Term Actions:
• Partner with the San Bernardino Regional Housing Trust to leverage regional and state funding, pool resources, and advance local and prevention-focused housing priorities. • Explore supporting the extension or renewal of expiring affordability covenants to prevent the loss of existing affordable housing units and protect vulnerable residents. • Prioritize City support for affordable housing projects that include homeless set-asides or supportive housing units.
• Streamline referral pathways to existing senior and multifamily affordable housing units.

Long-Term Actions:
• Leverage public-private partnerships to create new deeply affordable and permanent supportive housing.
• Explore City support for affordable housing projects that include homeless set-asides or supportive housing units.
• Consider inclusionary housing incentives that integrate affordable units into new developments while maintaining long-term affordability through covenants or deed restrictions.

4. Service Coordination & Funding Alignment
Goal: Maximize impact by aligning local funding, improving coordination, and measuring results.

Short-Term Actions:
• Target CDBG investments toward high impact prevention, including rapid rehousing and eviction prevention, as well as complementing pathways to housing for those exiting the Regional Navigation Center.
• Gain city-level access to HMIS and utilize it for real-time tracking of client outcomes and service utilization.
• Develop metrics to track City costs, outcomes, and operational impacts of homelessness response. • Improve data sharing between service providers, 2-1-1, and the City.

Long-Term Actions:
• Add dedicated staffing to coordinate housing and homelessness programs, ensuring consistent oversight, improved community responsiveness, and capacity to manage funding and partnerships.

DRAFT
28

Conclusion
• Apply for regional, state, and federal funding opportunities to support affordable housing development, homelessness prevention, rapid rehousing, and supportive services. • Require HMIS participation among CDBG-funded agencies to improve data quality, evaluate program outcomes, and guide funding decisions.

5. Equity, Engagement, & Accountability
Goal: Embed lived experience, equity, and community input into all homelessness strategies.

Short-Term Actions:
• Continue engagement with residents, businesses, and service providers through initiatives such as the Healthy RC Compassionate Communities Subcommittee to inform implementation and foster collaboration. • Implement citywide communications strategy that educates and informs the public about the City’s homelessness initiatives and their impact, and how residents and businesses can participate in the City’s response to homelessness.

Long-Term Actions:
• Conduct periodic evaluations to assess strategy effectiveness and inform updates. • Build on the City’s data and performance initiative to develop public-facing tools that track and share progress on homelessness efforts.
• Institutionalize representation of lived experience in advisory bodies and planning groups.

This strategy provides a roadmap for Rancho Cucamonga to address homelessness in a coordinated, proactive, and equitable way. By focusing on prevention, strengthening crisis response, expanding housing options, and improving service coordination, the City can reduce housing instability while supporting residents’ overall well-being. Implementation of these strategies will rely on data-driven decision-making, community engagement, and regional partnerships, ensuring that resources are deployed where they are most needed.

Over time, these efforts aim to not only stabilize households experiencing homelessness, but also prevent future housing crises, enhance quality of life across the community, and create a system that responds to challenges with compassion, professionalism, and a person-centered approach.

DRAFT
29

CityofRC.us

DATE: June 3, 2026
TO: Mayor and Members of the City Council
FROM: Elisa C. Cox, City Manager
INITIATED BY: Mike McCliman, Assistant City Manager / Fire Chief Matt Marquez, Director of Economic Development
Eddie Flores, Management Analyst I
SUBJECT: Presentation from Empire Economics Inc. on the City’s Annual Economic and Housing Trends Study. This Item is not a Project as Defined by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and is Therefore Exempt from CEQA Review. (CITY)
RECOMMENDATION:

Staff recommends the City Council receive a presentation from Dr. Joe Janczyk of Empire Economics Inc. on the City’s Annual Economic and Housing Trends Study.

BACKGROUND:

Over the years, the City has worked with Empire Economics Inc. to develop annual forecasts of Rancho Cucamonga’s economic and housing growth, conditions, and trends. These forecasts help the City evaluate changes in the local economy and housing market, understand the factors influencing those changes, and assess their potential impact on the community.

On December 17, 2025, the City Council approved a Three-Year Professional Services Agreement with Empire Economics Inc. for annual forecasting of expected economic and housing growth conditions, and supplemental analysis as requested, in an amount not to exceed $150,000.

Empire Economics Inc. has completed this year’s annual forecast and will now present its findings to the City Council.

ANALYSIS:

As the City continues to grow and evolve, understanding changes to its economy, employment base, and housing market remains important for future planning efforts. Listed below is key information from Empire Economics Inc.’s annual study and supplemental economic analysis.

The complete study has been provided as an attachment to this staff report.

1.Expected Impacts on the Economy/Employment: COVID-19 significantly impacted employment in Rancho Cucamonga, with employment declining by approximately 18% in April 2020. Employment later recovered and surpassed pre-pandemic levels by November 2021.

By December 2022, employment was approximately 5% above pre-pandemic levels; however, employment growth has since moderated to approximately 4% above pre-pandemic levels.

3 5
0 9
Rancho Cucamonga’s employment recovery has generally aligned more closely with California trends than the Riverside-San Bernardino regional economy, which experienced stronger recovery due in part to warehouse and distribution activity. The City’s resident unemployment rate remains below the County average at approximately 4.2%. Employment growth is expected to remain moderate, with inflation, elevated interest rates, and broader economic uncertainty continuing to influence business activity and investment decisions.

2.Expected Impacts on the Housing Market: Mortgage rates increased from approximately 3% in 2019 through early 2022 to approximately 6% by late 2022, while housing prices increased by approximately 41% to 56%. Higher mortgage rates have reduced housing supply because many existing homeowners are retaining historically low mortgage rates, which has limited the number of homes available for sale. Despite affordability constraints and reduced sales volume, housing prices in Rancho Cucamonga remain strong due to limited supply and continued demand. Delinquency rates remain low at approximately 1%, supporting overall housing market stability. New residential developments, including Sycamore Heights and future developments in The Resort area, continue to reflect market demand.

3.Market Conditions for Apartment Units: Apartment demand remains strong in Rancho Cucamonga, with approximately 1,200 apartment units recently leased and approximately 630 units currently under construction near Victoria Gardens. Average apartment rents are approximately $2,400 per month. Empire Economics Inc. estimates that the City can absorb approximately 500 new apartment units annually under current market conditions. However, continued apartment construction may create some risk of rent softness if new supply exceeds absorption capacity.

4.Supplemental Economic Analysis – Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Economy Opportunities: Empire Economics Inc. conducted supplemental analysis to evaluate commuting patterns among Rancho Cucamonga’s highly educated residents and identify opportunities to increase local employment options. The analysis used Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data from the U.S. Census Bureau and reviewed approximately 19,000 workers across 11 census tracts. Rancho Cucamonga has approximately 103,000 adults age 25 and older, including approximately 24,000 residents with bachelor’s degrees and approximately 15,000 residents with graduate degrees. The analysis found that only approximately 31% to 43% of highly educated workers remain employed within the City, while approximately 57% to 69% commute outside Rancho Cucamonga, primarily to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

The analysis identified opportunities to attract businesses associated with California’s advanced manufacturing and innovation economy sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, industrial automation, semiconductor technologies, medical technology, biotechnology, aerospace engineering, and professional scientific and technical services.

These target industries generally align with NAICS Sector 31–33: Manufacturing, including Machinery Manufacturing (NAICS 333), Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (NAICS 334), Chemical Manufacturing and Pharmaceuticals (NAICS 325), and Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing (NAICS 339), as well as portions of NAICS Sector 54:

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.

Specific focus areas include hardware systems manufacturing, semiconductor technologies, robotics and automation equipment, medical devices, biotechnology and pharmaceutical research, engineering and design services, and satellite or expansion office locations for innovation-oriented firms. Companies such as NVIDIA, Rockwell Automation, Edwards

3 5
0 9
Lifesciences, and Figure AI represent the types of advanced technology and innovation- oriented businesses that generally align with this strategy.

Attraction of these industry types may support higher-wage employment opportunities, reduce outbound commuting patterns, increase private-sector investment, expand local spending activity, diversify the City’s economic base, and generate additional sales tax, property tax, and broader economic output benefits.

FISCAL IMPACT:

There is no fiscal impact associated with this presentation to the City Council. The cost for the annual forecast and supplemental analysis was budgeted for in Fiscal Year 2025-26.

COUNCIL MISSION / VISION / VALUE(S) ADDRESSED:

This item supports the City Council’s Mission to advance quality of life through inclusive decision making and the City’s Vision of an equitable, sustainable, and vibrant community. It is also consistent with the City’s Values of Sustainable Future, Commitment to Prosperity, Community Engagement, and Relentless Pursuit of Improvement by providing data-driven tools to inform economic development strategy and support long-term community prosperity.

ATTACHMENTS:

Attachment 1 - 2026 Annual Economic and Housing Study

CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA

PRESENTATION TO CITY STAFF

ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY
&
SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS OF CITY’S

HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

PREPARED BY
EMPIRE ECONOMICS, INC.

JOSEPH T. JANCZYK, PH.D.

JUNE 3, 2026
1 ATTACHMENT 1

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

ANNUAL ECONOMIC AND HOUSING STUDY

1. RECENT AND EXPECTED MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS

2. ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT: RECENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS

3. FOR – SALE HOUSING MARKET: RECENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS

4. APARTMENT RENTALS: NEWLY DEVELOPING AND RENTAL TRENDS SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS: HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

5. HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS: SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

6. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

7. CONCLUSIONS ON POTENTIAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS 2

1. MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
3

4 OVERVIEW OF RECENT AND EXPECTED MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS .

COVID-19 - MARCH 2020: ECONOMY SHUT-DOWN; POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR RECESSION

SIGNIFICANT PROACTIVE POLICIES BY FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD (FED) AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECESSION A VOIDED BUT INFLATION SURGES TO PEAK LEVEL IN JANUARY 2022 FED RAISES SHORT-TERM RATES, INFLATION DECLINES BUT STILL ABOVE 2.0% TARGET RECENT MAJOR EVENTS: TARIFFS IRAN > HIGHER PRICES

POTENTIAL STAGFLATION
INFLATION ABOVE 2% TARGET AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH LOW/MODERATE

5 SURVEY OF 40 PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS – CONSENSUS FORECAST (SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA) – DEC. 10, 2025 CA. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEV ATED, ABOVE 5.0% MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN HIGH, ABOVE 5.6%

4.3% 4.1%

10.2%

7.3%

4.3% 4.7% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1%

3.9% 3.7%

8.1%

5.4%

3.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%

4.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.0%

5.4%

6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.2% 5.9% 5.6%

1.9% 1.6% 1.3%

3.6%

5.4%

4.2%

2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0%
-21%
-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%

MORTGAGE RATES

AND PCE-INFLATION

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
US AND CALIFORNIA: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

MORTGAGE RATES AND PCE-CORE INFLATION
Unemployment Rate - CA Unemployment Rate - US
Mortgage Rates PCE – Core FED Inflation Index

2. RANCHO CUCAMONGA – EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS
6

RECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY V ARIOUS GEOGRAPHIC AREAS
• SINCE MARCH 2020, COVID-19 HAS DRAMATICALLY IMPACTED THE ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT IN UNIQUE WAYS:
• IN APRIL 2020 EMPLOYMENT DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY , BY -18% FOR THE CITY DUE TO COVID-19 • THEN EMPLOYMENT RECOVERED, SURPASSING ITS PRE-COVID LEVEL IN NOVEMBER 2021 • IN DECEMBER 2022, THE CITY WA S ABOUT 5% ABOVE ITS PRE-COVID LEVELS • HOWEVER, THEREAFTER EMPLOYMENT DECLINED SLIGHTLY , TO ABOUT 4% ABOVE THE PRE-COVID LEVEL • COMPARING THE OTHER AREAS TO THE CITY, RIV-SB HAD A STRONGER RECOVERY WHILE CA HAD A SIMILAR RECOVERY 7 80%
84%
88%
92%
96%
100%
104%
108%
112%
Jan.-Feb. 2020
20-May
20-Aug
20-Nov
21-Feb
21-May
21-Aug
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-23
Feb-24
May-24
Aug-24
Nov-24
Feb-25
May-25
Aug-25
Nov-25
% TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT VS.

PRE-COVID LEVELS (JAN.-FEB. 2020)

RANCHO CUCAMONGA, CALIFORNIA, AND RIV-SB COUNTIES
CHANGE VS. BENCHMARK JAN-FEB. 2020 PRE-COVID
(NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
Rancho Cucamonga Riverside-San Bernardino MSA California Empire Economics

PRECIPITOUS

DECLINE

RECOVERING

NEW HIGHS

STEADY / MODEST GROWTH
Dec-25

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: RANCHO CUCAMONGA, SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND UNITED STATES RANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 4.2%
BELOW THAT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY: 5.0%
AND BELOW THAT OF THE UNITED STATES: 4.4%
8 THE RANCHO CUCAMONGA

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

REPRESENTS THE SHARE OF THE
CITY’S HOUSEHOLDS THAT ARE
UNEMPLOYED, 4.2%

SO THE RESIDENTS IN THE LABOR
FORCE THAT ARE EMPLOYED IS 95.8%,

THIS INCLUDES THOSE THAT ARE

EMPLOYED BY FIRMS IN THE CITY OR

ELSEWHERE

EMPIRE RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT
MOST OF THE CITY’S EMPLOYED

RESIDENTS ARE EMPLOYED IN OTHER
CITIES.

4.2%

5.0%

4.4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%
Rancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County United States

RECENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES - RANCHO CUCAMONGA,

SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE UNITED STATES
(DECEMBER 2025 - PRELIMINARY DATA)

RANCHO CUCAMONGA EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS: COVID RESTRUCTURING IMPACTS (2025-EST. VS. 2019 PRE-COVID)
• SECTOR WITH BIGGEST JOB ADDITIONS FOR 2025-EST. VS. 2019:
• CORE SECTORS: : ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES +806 AND PROFESSIONAL: 792 • SUPPORT SECTORS: GOVERNMENT: +2,472 (INCLUDES FEDERAL, STATE, COUNTY , SCHOOL DISTRICTS, AND CITY) • SECTOR WITH BIGGEST JOB LOSES FOR 2025-EST. VS. 2019:
• CORE SECTORS: MANUFACTURING -1,616 AND TRANSPORTATION/W AREHOUSE -1,041 9 806
792
580
563
14 -256
-916
-1,041-1,616
2,472
1,131
563
339
36 -174
-478
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
CORE SECTORS (-1,075)
Administrative-Support Services
Professional Services
Wholesale Trade
Restaurants/Hotels
Information
Management Services
Construction
Transportation/Warehouse
Manufacturing
SUPPORT SECTORS (+2,914)
Government
Health Care
Real Estate
Educational Services
Arts, Entertainment
Other Services
Retail Trade
RANCHO CUCAMONGA: CHANGE IN LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT
FROM 2019 TO 2025-EST. BY ECONOMIC SECTOR

10 FORECASTS OF THE CITY’S EMPLOYMENT WITH THE BRIGHTLINE HSR

THE HSR HAS A SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM IMPACT DURING CONSTRUCTION

HOWEVER, THE IMPACT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DURING THE OPERATIONAL STAGE 819
-7,329
3,648
5,913
-470 -386 -355
494 552 612 672 732
1,631 1,631
-1,159
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2019 /
2018
2020 /
2019
2021 /
2020
2022 /
2021
2023 /
2022
2024 /
2023
2025-Est. /
2024
2026-F /
2025-Est.
2027-F /
2026-F
2028-F /
2027-F
2029-F /
2028-F
2030-F /
2029-F
CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
CHANGE PER YEAR OVER PRIOR YEAR THROUGH 2030 FORECASTED

FOR HIGH SPEED RAIL AND AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT: CHANGE IN HSR EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT: CHANGE IN TOTAL NONFARM OTHER THAN HSR

3. CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA

FOR-SALE HOUSING
11

RANCHO CUCAMONGA STRONG PRICE APPRECIATION (JAN. 2018 – DECMEBER 2025) DESPITE HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES – UNIQUE EVENT
12 • .

DURING 2021 TO 2022,

RAPIDLY INCREASING

MORTGAGE RATES

LOCKED IN MANY

HOMEOWNERS THAT

HAD HISTORICALLY LOW

RATES, RESULTING IN

ACCELERATED HOUSING

PRICE APPRECIATION
4%
41%
56%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2018-03-01
2018-06-01
2018-09-01
2018-12-01
2019-03-01
2019-06-01
2019-09-01
2019-12-01
2020-03-01
2020-06-01
2020-09-01
2020-12-01
2021-03-01
2021-06-01
2021-09-01
2021-12-01
2022-03-01
2022-06-01
2022-09-01
2022-12-01
2023-03-01
2023-06-01
2023-09-01
2023-12-01
2024-03-01
2024-06-01
2024-09-01
2024-12-01
2025-03-01
2025-06-01
2025-09-01
2025-12-01
30-YEAR FIXED

MORTGAGE RATES

RANCHO CUCAMONGA
PENDING PRICE CHANCE SINCE JAN. 2018

RANCHO CUCAMONGA PENDING LISTINGS AND HOUSING INVENTORY , AND CUMULATIVE LAGGED 12 MONTH HOUSING PRICE CHANGE SINCE (JANUARY 2018 - DECEMBER 2025)
RANCHO CUCAMONGA HOUSING PRICE CHANGE 30 YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATES

MORTGAGE RATES

REMAINED AT HIGHER LEVELS
OF 6-6.5% IN SECOND HALF
OF 2025
2020 Q2:

FIRST

QUARTER OF

SIGNIFICANT
COVID

DESPITE HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES,

HOUSING PRICES CONTINUED TO RISE

13 RANCHO CUCAMONGA RECENT HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS

HOUSING PRICES HA VE RECENTLY MODERATED
WHILE SALES HA VE DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY.
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
Jul-25

RANCHO CUCAMONGA - EXISTING/NEW HOME SALES TRENDS
BY MONTH - 12 MONTH TRAILING MOVING AVERAGES
DETACHED SALES - 12 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE
ATTACHED SALES - 12 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
Jul-25

RANCHO CUCAMONGA - EXISTING/NEW HOME PRICE PATTERNS
BY MONTH - 12 MONTH TRAILING MOVING AVERAGES
DETACHED PRICES - 12 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE
ATTACHED PRICES - 12 MONTH TRAILING AVERAGE

14 RANCHO CUCAMONGA: ACTIVE PROJECTS WITH NEW FOR-SALE HOMES (SOURCES: RANCHO CUCAMONGA PLANNING DEPARTMENT & EMPIRE ECONOMICS)

CURRENTLY ACTIVE RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS

SYCAMORE HEIGHTS BY LENNAR HOMES
FOOTHILL BLVD. & REDHILL COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE

SIGNIFICANT CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

MODEL COMPLEXES OPEN
PLANNED HOMES : 175
WOODLAND PROJECT: 100 HOMES (FEBRUARY 2026)
1,535 SQ. FT. FOR $631,990
1,655 SQ. FT. FOR $579,990
1,808 SQ. FT. FOR $662,990
1,908 SQ. FT. FOR $619,990
1,846 SQ.FT. FOR $671,990
GREEN LEAF PROJECT: 75 HOMES (FEBRUARY 2026)
1,245 SQ. FT. FOR $529,990
1,417 SQ. FT. FOR $592,520
1,588 SQ. FT. FOR $637,990

PROJECTS ENTERING THE MARKETPLACE

IN THE NEAR TERM
PROJECTS: CANYONS & VERANDA
PLANNING APPROV ALS FOR 166 HOMES
BUILDER: LENNAR HOMES
EXPECTED OPENING: SPRING 2026

PROJECTS: OVERLOOK & HIGHLABDS
PLANNING APPROV ALS FOR 188 HOMES
BUILDER: TOLL BROTHERS
EXPECTED OPENING: SUMMER 2026

4. CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA

APARTMENT RENTALS
15

OVERVIEW OF APARTMENT RENTAL RATE TRENDS

RANCHO CUCAMONGA AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
• RANCHO CUCAMONGA RENTS INCREASED FROM $1,720 IN 2015 TO $2,714 IN 2025, UP BY + 58%. • SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY (SBC) RENTS INCREASED FROM ABOUT $1,280 IN 2015 TO $2,407 IN 2025, +88%. • RANCHO CUCAMONGA RENT LEVELS ARE HIGHER THAN SBC, BUT THEIR PERCENT CHANGE DURING 2015-2025 W AS LOWER. 16 $2,714
$2,407
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
1/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
7/1/2019
1/1/2020
7/1/2020
1/1/2021
7/1/2021
1/1/2022
7/1/2022
1/1/2023
7/1/2023
1/1/2024
7/1/2024
1/1/2025
7/1/2025

RECENT APARTMENT RENTAL TRENDS - EXISTING APARTMENTS

RANCHO CUCAMONGA AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
Rancho Cucamonga San Bernardino County

17 RANCHO CUCAMONGA: RECENT NEW AND FUTURE APARTMENT PROJECTS (APPROXIMATE LOCATIONS) 1 2
3 4
5 6
798 11 1013
12 MAP

CODES PROJECT NAMES

RECENTLY LEASED- ONCE
1 Homecoming at the Resort
2 The Core/La Mirage
3 Westbury
BUILT; LEASING-UP
4 Alta Merita/Alta Curvee

UNDER CONSTRUCTION
5 Haven and Arrow
6 Alexan at Victoria Gardens
FUTURE: NEAR TERM-EST.
7 Harvest at Terra Vista
8 Foothill & Grove
9 Lions Gate
FUTURE
10 Foothill Landing
11 33 North
12 Spruce & Red Oak
13 Leap Development

THE PACE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A SYNCHRONIZED MANNER TO MAINTAIN STABLE RENTS.

SHOULD EXCESS UNITS ENTER THE MARKETPLACE, RENTS WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED TO MAINTAIN ABSORPTION.

ESTIMATED ABSORPTION FOR NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS
18 REMARK: POTENTIAL “OPEN” DATES PER PLANNING APPROV ALS ABSORPTION /OCCUPANCY BASED UPON EMPIRE’S FORECAST
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031+

NUMBER OF APARTMENT RENTAL'S - ANNUALLY

RANCHO CUCAMONGA NEW APARTMENT PROJECTS

RECENTLY LEASED, ACTIVE/LEASING, CONSTRUCTION AND FUTURE LEASED ONCE+ BUILT/LEASING

CONSTRUCTION FUTURE NEAR TERM - EST
FUTURE

CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA

SUPPLEMENTAL RESEARCH

CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

CURRENTLY EMPLOYED BY FIRMS LOCATED ELSEWHERE

POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT BY NEW FIRMS

LOCATING TO RANCHO CUCAMONGA

19

20 OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH ON HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

THE CITY OF RANCHO CUCAMONGA HAS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS THAT CURRENTLY COMMUTE TO OTHER CITIES FOR THEIR EMPLOYMENT.

THE PURPOSE OF THIS ANALYSIS IS TO IDENTIFY THE V ARIOUS CITIES AND TYPES OF FIRMS THAT THESE

HOUSEHOLDS COMMUTE TO PRESENTLY
THE CITY’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT CAN THEN SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH

PROSPECTIVE FIRMS THAT ARE CONSIDERING POTENTIAL NEW LOCATIONS

FOR THEIR BUSINESSES

THE BENEFITS TO THE CITY INCLUDE EXPANDING/ENHANCING ITS ECONOMIC BASE AND PROVIDING CURRENT RESIDENTS WITH EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES LOCALLY .

21 RANCHO CUCAMONGA HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
CITY CENSUS POPULATION AGE 25+ 102,592
BACHELOR’S (BA) DEGREE ONLY 23,627
GRADUATE DEGREE: 14,807
CLASSIFICATIONS/CATEGORIES: SHARE OF AGE 25+ POPULATION IN CT WITH BA & GRADUATE DEGREES:

HIGH > 50% 13%
MODERATE 20%-50% 65%
LOW <20%) 22%

HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSING PRICES
HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: INCOME $192,112/A VG. AND HOUSING PRICES $773,950/A VG.

LOWER EDUCATION GROUP: INCOME $81,735/A VG. AND HOUSING PRICES $379,847/A VG.

COMMUTING TIMES TO WORK , MINUTES (M): HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP HAS MANY LONG DISTANCE COMMUTERS

22 9,290
2,931
1,206
601
1,366 1,278
610
1,348
1,706
4,530
1,024 1,257
2,779
2,370
889
258
1,452
1,176
128
501
1,348
2,220
740
253
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000

EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES BY EDUCATIONAL CATEGORIES

PROFILE OF SELECTED CENSUS TRACTS (CT) EMPLOYMENT SECTORS EDUCATIONAL: HIGHER AND LOWER BY AMOUNTS
HIGHER CT (50% BA+) LOWER CT (<20% BA+)
EDUCATION CT WITH BA+ DEGREES

HA VE HIGHER SHARES OF

MANAGEMENT, HEALTH,

FINANCE AND SCIENTIFIC

6. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

EMPIRE ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGY
(REPLACES PLACER DATA)

ANALYZE COMMUTING PATTERNS FROM HIGHLY EDUCATED RANCHO CUCAMONGA CENSUS TRACTS TO IDENTIFY DESTINATIONS, INDUSTRIES, AND POTENTIAL FOR REDUCING COMMUTING TIMES.

DATA SOURCES: 2023 LEHD (LONGITUDINAL EMPLOYER-HOUSEHOLD DYNAMICS) ON THE MAP (U.S. CENSUS BUREAU) FOR TRACT-LEVEL EMPLOYMENT FLOWS

ORIGIN-DESTINATION BY CENSUS TRACT JOB COUNTS, SHARES
AGGREGATED ~19,000 WORKERS ACROSS 11 TRACTS.

SPECIFIC DATA: RESIDENT COMMUTING OUTPUTS SHOWING TOP DESTINATIONS BY CENSUS TRACT SELF-RETENTION VERY LOW WITHIN THE CITY AT 31% TO 43%
DISPERSAL TO OUTSIDE OF AREA VERY HIGH AT 57% TO 69%.

SUPPLEMENTARY DATA: EMPIRE LEVERAGED SEVERAL DATA SOURCES FOR EMPLOYERS:

RANCHO CUCAMONGA GENERAL PLAN

EDD MAJOR EMPLOYERS LISTS

SCAG PROFILES FOR WORKPLACE INDUSTRIES/EMPLOYERS

INDIVIDUAL CENSUS TRACT DATA
AERIAL ANALYSIS.

COMBINATION OF THESE V ARIOUS SOURCES TO ESTIMATE PROBABLE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS 23

METHODOLOGY COMMUTING PATTERNS
24 18% to 25%
12% to 18%
3% to 7%
4% to 8%
4% to 6%
8% to 12%
2% to 4%
1% to 3%
2% to 5%
Inside City of Rancho Cucamonga: 31% to 43%
Outside City of Rancho Cucamonga: 69% to 57%

A RESOURCE FROM THE CENSUS DATA “ON THE MAP” IDENTIFIES WHERE PEOPLE LIVE AND WHERE THEY WORK  THIS DATA CAN BE REDUCED TO THE CENSUS TRACT LEVEL WHICH IS VERY GRANULAR .  EMPIRE PULLED THIS DATA FOR ALL THE HIGH-INCOME CENSUS TRACTS  HOWEVER, THIS DATA W AS VERY DISPERSED
EMPIRE CHOSE 626.10 WHICH IS IN CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT TO ILLUSTRATE THE V ARIETY OF

FIRMS/JOBS WHERE A REISDENT IN RANCHO CUCAMONGA COULD BE EMPLOYED CASE STUDY – EXAMPLE
HOUSEHOLDS CURRENTLY RESIDING IN CITY IN CT 20.43
BUT COMMUTING TO ORANGE COUNTY CT 626.10
(COUNTY OF ORANGE, JUST SOUTH OF JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT)
25 “ON THE MAP” SPATIAL OUTPUT
“ON THE MAP” EXCEL

AERIAL ANALYSIS ON EMPLOYER TYPE IN 626.10
26 AERIAL ANALYSIS

EXAMPLE OF EMPLOYER FOUND

BELOW IS EXAMPLE OF THE AERIAL ANALYSIS THAT EMPIRE CONDUCTED ON THIS CENSUS TRACT EMPIRE USED THE VISUAL IMAGES OF EMPLOYERS TO CONFIRM EMPLOYMENT TYPE AND SPECIFIC EMPLOYERS.

EMPIRE ESTIMATES COMMUTING TIME FOR WORKERS IN THE V ARIOUS PROBABLE TYPES OF EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES.

FOR EXAMPLE, EDW ARDS LIFE SCIENCE MAY HA VE A GENERAL CLASSIFICATION AS HEALTHCARE BUT THE COMPOSITION OF ITS WORKERS WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE MARKETING, FINANCE, STRATEGY AND OVERALL MANAGEMENT.

EMPLOYER / CLUSTER LOCATION / ADDRESS EXAMPLE INDUSTRY / JOB TYPES APPROXIMATE CORPORATE / ON-

SITE HEADCOUNT
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE (UCI) 1 UNIVERSITY DR, IRVINE, CA 92697

HIGHER EDUCATION, RESEARCH,

ADMINISTRATION, PROFESSIONAL

SERVICES, HEALTHCARE (UCI HEALTH)
~34,000–34,300 (CAMPUS-WIDE,
INCLUDING MEDICAL CENTER;
~22,883 ADMIN/STAFF + FACULTY
AS OF 2025)

UCI HEALTH / MEDICAL CENTER

UCI CAMPUS & NEARBY

FACILITIES

HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATION,

MEDICAL RESEARCH, PROFESSIONAL

SERVICES
~12,000–12,840 (MEDICAL CENTER

STAFF SUBSET OF UCI TOTAL)

THE IRVINE COMPANY (CORPORATE OFFICES) VARIOUS CENTRAL IRVINE

OFFICES

REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT,

CORPORATE HQ FUNCTIONS,

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
~3,600–5,000 (COMPANY-WIDE;

SIGNIFICANT LOCAL PRESENCE IN

IRVINE)

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES (CAMPUS NEARBY)

ONE EDWARDS WAY (CLOSE TO

CENTRAL)

MEDICAL DEVICES, BIOTECH, R&D,

CORPORATE OFFICES
~5,000 (IRVINE HQ/ON-SITE);
COMPANY-WIDE ~15,800–16,000
(2025)

CITY OF IRVINE (GOVERNMENT OFFICES)
1 CIVIC CENTER PLAZA, IRVINE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, CITY

SERVICES, PROFESSIONAL ROLES
~2,000–2,200 (CITY-WIDE

EMPLOYEES)

KAISER PERMANENTE (FACILITIES/OFFICES)

VARIOUS IRVINE SITES HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATION AND

SERVICES
~9,200+ (ORANGE COUNTY

SYSTEM-WIDE, INCLUDING IRVINE
MEDICAL CENTER; LOCAL SUBSET)
OTHER BUSINESS PARK TENANTS (E.G., SMALLER TECH/FINANCE FIRMS)

ALTON PKWY / UNIVERSITY PARK
AREA

TECH, FINANCE, CONSULTING,

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
VARIES (TYPICALLY 100–1,000 PER
FIRM; SCATTERED ACROSS PARKS)
.MAJOR EMPLOYERS 626.10
PROCESS FOR IDENTIFYING AND ANALYZING SPECIFIC CENSUS TRACT 626.10 BELOW ARE SOME CONCRETE EXAMPLE OF THE STEPS TAKEN FOR A DEEP DIVE INTO THE 626.10 CENSUS TRACT.

1. EMPIRE USED THE VISUAL IMAGES OF EMPLOYERS TO CONFIRM EMPLOYMENT TYPE AND SPECIFIC EMPLOYERS.

2. ANALYZING SPECIFIC EMPLOYERS BASED ON THEIR LOCATION IS HELPFUL TO UNDERSTAND POTENTIAL JOB TYPES. 27

28 7. CONCLUSIONS ON POTENTIAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES

OF HIGHLY EDUCATED HOUSEHOLDS

1. FORMULATE SPECIFIC STRATEGIES BASED UPON COMMUTING TIMES AND EMPLOYMENT SECTORS

2. FOCUS ON WHAT TYPES OF FIRMS RANCHO CUCAMONGA CAN BRING INTO THE CITY

3. CONSIDER REDUCTIONS IN COMMUTING TIMES AND HIGH LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT SECTOR

I. TARGET OCCUPATIONS BASED ON COMMUNITY WORKFORCE PROFILE 29 AI HARDWARE & ROBOTICS MANUFACTURING SUPPORT (SATELLITE / EXPANSION FACILITIES)

NVIDIA (JETSON/AI HARDW ARE LAB)

TESLA ROBOTICS (OPTIMUS TESTING/SUPPORT)

FIGURE AI / SKILD AI (R&D/PROTOTYPING SATELLITE)
WHY TARGET THIS GROUP:

RANCHO'S LOGISTICS HUB + ONTARIO AIRPORT PROXIMITY MAKE IT IDEAL FOR HARDW ARE TESTING/SUPPLY-CHAIN SUPPORT

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA FIRMS EXPANDING SOUTH FOR LOWER COST/SPACE SA VINGS CAPTURES 60–90 MIN BAY AREA COMMUTERS, TYPICALLY DISPERSED TECH WORKERS.

II. TARGET OCCUPATIONS BASED ON COMMUNITY WORKFORCE PROFILE 30 INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION & AI SOFTWARE (FOR LOGISTICS/MANUFACTURING) EXAMPLES: ROCKWELL AUTOMATION (REGIONAL AUTOMATION/AI HUB)

RICHTECH ROBOTICS (SERVICE ROBOTICS DEPLOYMENT CENTER)

NIGHTFOOD / TECHFORCE ROBOTICS (BIM-E AI ROBOTICS HUB)
WHY TARGET THIS GROUP:

BUILDS DIRECTLY ON EXISTING LOCAL LOGISTICS (AMPHASTAR, WEBER, ESTES) — AI FOR W AREHOUSE/AUTOMATION FITS

SOUTHERN INDUSTRIAL ECOSYSTEM WHILE PLACING WHITE-COLLAR ROLES IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN OFFICES REDUCES 40–60 MIN LA COMMUTES FOR RESIDENTS IN LOGISTICS-ADJACENT ROLES

III. TARGET OCCUPATIONS BASED ON COMMUNITY WORKFORCE PROFILE 31 MEDICAL & BIOTECH AI / ROBOTICS (OFFICE & R&D SUPPORT) EXAMPLES: EDW ARDS LIFESCIENCES (SATELLITE R&D / AI SUPPORT OFFICE) ANALOG MEDICAL ROBOTICS FIRMS (E.G., INTUITIVE SURGICAL BACK-OFFICE)

TELEHEALTH / AI HEALTH TECH STARTUPS
WHY TARGET THIS GROUP:

PROXIMITY TO IRVINE'S MEDICAL DEVICE CLUSTER + EXISTING BIOTECH (AMPHASTAR) CREATES SYNERGY OFFICE/R&D IN CENTRAL ZONES; ALIGNS WITH CA AI HEALTH PARTNERSHIPS (NEWSOM INITIATIVE) CUTS 50–60 MIN OC COMMUTES AND CAPTURES HEALTH/TECH DISPERSALS (10–15%)